JP5293648B2 - Generated power estimation apparatus and generated power estimation method - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To obtain a generated power estimation device, capable of estimating the generated power of a solar panel from the data of an existing receiving power measuring device and dump power measuring device, without the need for installing a new measuring device. <P>SOLUTION: The generated power estimation device 31 includes a receiving unit 33 that receives measurement data of the receiving power measuring device and dump power measuring device, a fluctuation period resolving unit 34 that performs fluctuation period resolution by resolving the measurement data received by the receiving unit to an early fluctuation period component and late fluctuation period component based on the past power usage data of consumers, and a transformed and generated power estimation process unit 35 that estimates the generated power of the solar panel based on the results of the fluctuation frequency resolution and the like. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2011,JPO&amp;INPIT

Description

  The present invention relates to a generated power estimation device that estimates the generated power of a solar panel.

  In recent years, consumers who own solar panels have installed solar panels in buildings such as houses, and subtracted the surplus power used by subtracting the power used in the building from the power generated by the solar power company. To be sold to. The power received by the power company and the power sold to the power company are measured by the received power measuring device and surplus power measuring device. The actual power generated by photovoltaic power generation has not been measured.

  When an accident occurs in an electric power system to which such a solar power generation system is connected, the solar power generation system may be disconnected for safety. At the time of reclosing at the time of restoration, overload may occur if the generated power of the solar panel is not known.

  Therefore, there is a need to check the generated power of the solar panel. Conventionally, a measuring device for measuring the generated power of solar light is directly installed on the solar panel to check the generated power (for example, patents). Reference 1).

JP 2004-28924 A (page 4-6, FIG. 1)

  However, the conventional technology as described above has a drawback in that it is necessary to newly install a measuring device. This is undesirable from the standpoint of cost and the need to secure the installation location of the measuring device.

  The present invention has been made to solve the above-described problems, and it is not necessary to install a new measuring device. The generated power of the solar panel can be obtained from the data of the existing received power measuring device and surplus power measuring device. It is an object of the present invention to obtain a generated power estimation apparatus capable of estimating

  In the generated power estimation device according to the present invention, the measurement data of the received power measurement device and the surplus power measurement device is subjected to the fluctuation cycle decomposition into an early fluctuation cycle component and a late fluctuation cycle component based on the past usage power data of the consumer, As a result of the fluctuation frequency decomposition, the fluctuation period decomposition result output from the fluctuation period decomposition unit, the reference solar radiation data that is the data of the reference solar radiation, the solar panel that has received the solar radiation indicated by the reference solar radiation data The generated power of the solar panel based on the reference generated power data that is the data of the generated power to be generated and the solar radiation data that is the data indicating the solar radiation at the point where the solar panel is installed in the period for estimating the generated power Is estimated.

  In the generated power estimation device according to the present invention, it is not necessary to install a new measuring device, and the generated power of the solar panel can be estimated from the measurement data of the existing received power measuring device and surplus power measuring device.

It is a conceptual diagram which shows the outline of the photovoltaic power generation estimation system which concerns on Embodiment 1 of this invention. 1 is a configuration diagram of a photovoltaic power generation estimation system according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention. It is a block diagram which shows the structure of the generated electric power estimation apparatus 31 which concerns on Embodiment 1 of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows operation | movement of the generated electric power estimation apparatus 31 which concerns on Embodiment 1 of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows operation | movement for the detail of the generated electric power estimation process part 35 in step S4. It is a graph which shows the example of PVHF in Embodiment 1 of this invention. It is a graph which shows the example of PVLF, PVLF ', and PV in Embodiment 1 of this invention. It is a block diagram of the photovoltaic power generation estimation system which concerns on Embodiment 2 of this invention. It is a block diagram of the photovoltaic power generation estimation system which concerns on Embodiment 3 of this invention. It is a block diagram which shows the structure of the generated electric power estimation apparatus 41 which concerns on Embodiment 3 of this invention.

Embodiment 1 FIG.
First, the object of the invention according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention will be described. FIG. 1 is a conceptual diagram showing an outline of a photovoltaic power generation estimation system according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention. As shown in FIG. 1, a consumer 3 who owns a solar panel 2, when the power generated by the solar panel 2 exceeds the power used by the customer 3, The surplus power that is the power obtained by subtracting the used power is transmitted to the power company 10 and sold. At this time, the surplus power transmitted by the surplus power measuring device 5 is measured, and the measured surplus power data as the measurement data is recorded. On the other hand, when the generated power of the solar panel 2 is less than the power used by the consumer 3, the shortage is purchased from the power company 10 and received. At this time, the received power that is the power received by the received power measuring device 4 is measured, and the measured received power data that is the measurement data is recorded.

  Here, the generated power of the solar panel 2 and the power used by the consumer 3 cannot be accurately known from the measured surplus power data of the surplus power measuring device 5 and the measured received power data of the received power measuring device 4.

  Therefore, the object of the invention according to the first embodiment of the present invention is to obtain the solar panel 2 from the data 11 that combines the measured surplus power data of the surplus power measuring device 5 and the measured received power data of the received power measuring device 4. It is to be able to estimate the generated power 12 and the power 13 used by the customer 3.

  FIG. 2 is a configuration diagram of the photovoltaic power generation estimation system according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention. The photovoltaic power generation estimation system according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention is purchased from a solar panel 2 that receives sunlight 22 from the sun 21 to generate power, a customer 3 that has installed the solar panel 2, and an electric power company. Received power measurement device 4 that measures received power 23 that is received power, surplus power measurement device 5 that measures surplus power 24 that is power obtained by subtracting the power used by customer 3 from the generated power of solar panel 2, solar A generated power estimation device 31 that estimates the generated power of the optical panel 2 and a database 32 in which various types of information are stored are provided.

  In the database 32, reference solar radiation data that is data of a standard solar radiation amount, reference generated power data that is data of power generated by the solar panel 2 that has received solar radiation indicated by the reference solar radiation data, Equipment capacity data (kW), which is the capacity data of the solar panel 2, relation curve data between the solar radiation amount and the power generation amount of the solar panel 2, and contract capacity data (kW) which is data of the contract capacity of the customer 3 ) And the data of the past power consumption of the customer 3 are stored. As the generated power estimation device 31 and the database 32, a computer including a CPU, ROM, RAM, and interface circuit can be used.

  FIG. 3 is a block diagram showing the configuration of the generated power estimation apparatus 31 according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention. As illustrated in FIG. 3, the generated power estimation device 31 includes a reception unit 33 that receives measured received power data and measured surplus power data from the received power measurement device 4 and the surplus power measurement device 5 via a communication system, and Fluctuation period decomposition processing unit 34 for performing fluctuation period decomposition of data obtained by subtracting measurement received power data from measurement surplus power data, processing results of reference period fluctuation processing unit 34, reference solar radiation data, and reference generated power of solar panel 2 And a generated power estimation processing unit 35 that estimates generated power based on the data.

  Next, the operation will be described. FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing the operation of the generated power estimation apparatus 31 according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention.

  In step S <b> 1, the receiving unit 33 receives the measured received power data and the measured surplus power data from the received power measuring device 4 and the surplus power measuring device 5 via the communication system, and sends them to the fluctuation cycle decomposition processing unit 34. .

  In step S <b> 2, the fluctuation period decomposition processing unit 34 reads data on past power consumption of the customer 3 from the database 32.

  In step S3, the fluctuation period decomposition processing unit 34 performs fluctuation period decomposition by Fourier transform on the data obtained by subtracting the measured received power data from the measured surplus power data, and decomposes the fast fluctuation period component and the slow fluctuation period component. The fluctuation cycle decomposition processing unit 34 determines a criterion for determining the fast fluctuation cycle component and the slow fluctuation cycle component by analyzing the past power consumption data of the customer 3 using the power spectrum. For example, when the fluctuation cycle decomposition processing unit 34 determines that there is no or less fluctuation that is earlier than 3 minutes of the power used, the cycle that is earlier than 3 minutes is set as the earlier fluctuation period.

  Here, when the data obtained by subtracting the measured received power data from the measured surplus power data is Z, the generated power of the solar panel 2 is PV, and the used power of the consumer 3 is L, the following relational expression is established.

  Furthermore, since PV is composed of a slow fluctuation period component PVLF and an early fluctuation period component PVHF, it can be expressed as follows.

  On the other hand, Z is subjected to fluctuation period decomposition by Fourier transform in the fluctuation period decomposition processing unit 34, and is decomposed into a slow fluctuation period component ZLF and an early fluctuation period component ZHF as follows.

  The power L used by the customer 3 is generally considered to change relatively slowly as compared with the generated power PV of the solar panel 2 that can change quickly depending on the movement of clouds and the like. Therefore, it is assumed that L is composed of only slow fluctuation period components. Then, the fast fluctuation period component PVHF of the power generated by the solar panel 2 is equal to the fast fluctuation period component ZHF of Z. That is, the following formula is obtained.

  In this way, first, the fluctuation period component PVHF of the fast generated power of the solar panel 2 can be estimated.

  Subsequently, in step S4, the generated power estimation processing unit 35 estimates the generated power of the solar panel 2 as follows.

  FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing details of the operation of the generated power estimation processing unit 35 in step S4. Hereinafter, based on FIG. 5, operation | movement of the generated electric power estimation process part 35 in step S4 is demonstrated in detail.

  In step S <b> 11, the generated power estimation processing unit 35 reads the fast fluctuation period component ZHF of Z and the slow fluctuation period component ZLF of Z output from the fluctuation period decomposition processing unit 34.

  In step S <b> 12, the generated power estimation processing unit 35 reads the reference generated power data PVSTD and the reference solar radiation data IRRSTD of the solar panel 2 from the database 32.

  In step S13, the generated power estimation processing unit 35 reads the solar radiation amount data IRR. In addition, this solar radiation amount data is the data of the solar radiation amount at the point where the solar panel 2 is installed in the period for estimating the generated power, and is received from the Japan Meteorological Agency or directly measured at that point and received. Also good.

  In step S14, the generated power estimation processing unit 35 estimates a slow periodic component PVLF of the generated power of the solar panel 2. For this purpose, first, the generated power estimation processing unit 35 uses the read reference generated power data PVSTD, reference solar radiation data IRRSTD, and solar radiation data IRR to generate the slow periodic component PVLF of the solar panel 2 generated power. The provisional estimated value PVLF ′ is obtained by the following formula.

  Next, the generated power estimation processing unit 35 calculates the fluctuation range w of the fluctuation period component ZHF (= PVHF) with a fast Z read in Step S11. w is the difference between the maximum value and the minimum value of ZHF (= PVHF). FIG. 6 is a graph showing an example of ZHF (= PVHF) in the first embodiment of the present invention. In FIG. 6, the horizontal axis represents time (h), and the vertical axis represents power (Kw). An example of w is shown in FIG. After obtaining w, the generated power estimation processing unit 35 calculates the coefficient k of the following equation so that the difference between the maximum value of PVLF and the maximum value of PVLF ′ becomes w. However, k is obtained in the range of 0 to 1.

  FIG. 7 is a graph showing an example of PVLF, PVLF ′, and PV in Embodiment 1 of the present invention. In FIG. 7, the horizontal axis represents time (h), and the vertical axis represents power (Kw). 101 is PV, 102 is PVLF ′, and 103 is PVLF.

  Next, in step S15, the generated power estimation processing unit 35 can obtain PV by adding an early fluctuation period component ZHF (= PVHF) to PVLF as a result of step S14.

  Finally, in step S5 of FIG. 4, the generated power estimation processing unit 34 outputs the estimated generated power (PV) of the solar panel 2.

  As described above, in the generated power estimation device 31 according to the first embodiment, it is not necessary to install a new measurement device, and the generated power of the solar panel is estimated from the data of the existing received power measurement device and surplus power measurement device. can do.

  The receiving unit 33 has received the measured received power data and the measured surplus power data from the received power measuring device 4 and the surplus power measuring device 5 via the communication system, respectively. You can also.

  In addition, the variation frequency decomposition is performed using the measurement surplus power data minus the measurement reception power data, but conversely, the variation frequency decomposition may be performed using the measurement reception power data minus the measurement surplus power data. . In this case, the same result can be obtained only by reversing the sign.

  A value obtained by subtracting PV from Z is an estimated value of the power L used by the customer 3. If necessary, the generated power estimation device 31 may output this estimated value.

  In addition, the generated power estimation processing unit 35 includes facility capacity data (kW) in which the estimated power generation amount PV of the solar panel 2 and the value of the used power L of the consumer 3 are data on the capacity of the solar panel 2, The relationship between solar panel 2 solar radiation and power generation curve data, customer 3 contract capacity data contract capacity data (kW), customer 3 past power consumption data, etc. If it is a reasonable value, an error may be output.

Embodiment 2. FIG.
FIG. 8 is a configuration diagram of a photovoltaic power generation estimation system according to Embodiment 2 of the present invention. The same components as those in the first embodiment are denoted by the same reference numerals and description thereof is omitted. Hereinafter, based on FIG. 8, a photovoltaic power generation estimation system according to Embodiment 2 of the present invention will be described. The basic configuration of the photovoltaic power estimation system according to Embodiment 2 of the present invention is the same as that of the photovoltaic power estimation system according to Embodiment 1 shown in FIG. There is.

  In Embodiment 1, there was only one solar panel 2 and one customer 3 each. On the other hand, in Embodiment 2, three solar panels 2a-2c and three consumers 3a-3c are provided, respectively.

  Further, in the first embodiment, the received power measuring device 4 and the surplus power measuring device 5 for measuring the received power and the surplus power for the single solar panel 2 and the customer 3 are installed. On the other hand, in the second embodiment, the total received power measuring device 8 that measures the total received power 25 that is the sum of the received power of the consumers 3a to 3c and records the measured total received power data that is the measurement data; The total surplus power 26, which is the power obtained by subtracting the total power used by the consumers 3a-3c from the total power generated by the solar panels 2a-2c, is measured, and the measured total surplus power data that is the measurement data is recorded. And a total surplus power measuring device 9.

  The operation of the generated power estimation apparatus 31 according to the second embodiment is as follows: measured received power data and measured surplus power data are measured total received power data and measured surplus power data; The operation related to the generated power estimation apparatus 31 according to the first embodiment is the same as the data related to 2c except that the data related to the customer 3 is replaced with data related to the customers 3a to 3c. Thereby, the sum total of the generated electric power of solar panel 2a-2c can be estimated.

  Note that the number of solar panels and consumers is not limited to three. Moreover, the number of solar panels and the number of consumers do not necessarily have to be the same.

  As described above, in the generated power estimation apparatus 31 according to Embodiment 2 of the present invention, when a solar panel including one or more solar panels 2 is installed in a plurality of consumers, the generated power of the solar panel Can be estimated.

  In addition, since past power consumption data and the like may be handled as a total value of a plurality of consumers, the handling of personal information of a single consumer can be minimized.

Embodiment 3 FIG.

  Even a consumer who has installed a solar panel often uses a large amount of power and does not generate surplus power. Such generated power of the consumer's solar panel cannot be accurately estimated by the generated power estimation device 31 as described in the first embodiment.

  Therefore, in the generated power estimation device 41 according to Embodiment 3 of the present invention, the generated power of the solar panel 2B of the consumer 3B that does not include the surplus power measuring device is used as the power generation of the neighboring solar panel 2A. It can be estimated from the estimated power value.

  FIG. 9 is a configuration diagram of a photovoltaic power generation estimation system according to Embodiment 3 of the present invention. The same components as those in the first embodiment are given the same numbers. Hereinafter, based on FIG. 9, a photovoltaic power generation estimation system according to Embodiment 3 of the present invention will be described.

  In the photovoltaic power generation estimation system according to Embodiment 3 of the present invention, a solar panel 2A that receives sunlight 22 from the sun 21 to generate electric power, a customer 3A that installs the solar panel 2A, and a consumer 3A that has electric power Received power measuring device 4A that measures received power 23A that is purchased and received from a company, surplus power 24A that measures surplus power 24A that is the power obtained by subtracting the power used by consumer 3A from the generated power of solar panel 2A Measuring device 5A, solar panel 2B that receives sunlight 22 from the sun 21 to generate electricity, consumer 3B that installs the solar panel 2B, and received power 23B that is received by the consumer 3B from a power company and received The received power measuring device 4B for measuring the generated power, the generated power estimating device 41 for estimating the generated power, and the database 42 storing various information.

  In the database 42, reference solar radiation data that is data of a standard solar radiation amount, reference generated power data that is data of power generated by the solar panel 2A that has received solar radiation indicated by the reference solar radiation data, Facility capacity data (kW), which is the capacity data of the solar panel 2A, equipment capacity data (kW), which is the data of the capacity of the solar panel 2A, and a relationship curve between the solar radiation amount and the power generation amount of the solar panel 2A Data, contracted capacity data (kW) that is data of contracted capacity of the consumer 3A, past power consumption data of the consumer 3A, and the like are stored. As the generated power estimation device 41 and the database 42, a computer including a CPU, ROM, RAM, and interface circuit can be used.

  FIG. 10 is a block diagram showing the configuration of the generated power estimation apparatus 41 according to Embodiment 3 of the present invention. As illustrated in FIG. 10, the generated power estimation device 41 includes a reception unit 33 that receives measured received power data and measured surplus power data from the received power measurement device 4A and the surplus power measurement device 5A, respectively, via a communication system; Fluctuation period decomposition processing unit 34 for performing fluctuation period decomposition of data obtained by subtracting measured received power data from measurement surplus power data, processing results of reference period fluctuation processing unit 34, reference solar radiation data, and reference generated power of solar panel 2A A generated power estimation processing unit 35 that estimates the generated power based on the data, and a neighboring solar panel generated power estimation processing unit 36 that estimates the generated power of the solar panel 2B.

  Hereinafter, the operation of the generated power estimation apparatus 41 according to Embodiment 3 will be described. The generated power estimation device 41 first estimates the generated power of the solar panel 2A of the third embodiment in the same manner as in the first embodiment. That is, from the time when the receiving unit 33 receives the measured received power data and the measured surplus power data from the received power measuring device 4A and the surplus power measuring device 5A, respectively, until the generated power estimated by the generated power estimation processing unit 35 is output. The operation is the same as in the first embodiment.

  Next, the neighboring solar panel generated power estimation processing unit 36 reads the generated power PVA of the solar panel 2A estimated by the generated power estimation processing unit 35, and the installed capacity data CA of the solar panel 2A read from the database 42. Based on the equipment capacity data CB of the solar panel 2B, the generated power PVB of the solar panel 2B is estimated according to the following formula.

  Next, the neighboring solar panel generated power estimation processing unit 36 outputs the estimated generated power of the solar panel 2B.

  As described above, in the generated power estimation apparatus 41 according to Embodiment 3 of the present invention, the generated power of the solar panel 2B in the vicinity of the solar panel 2A can also be estimated.

2 solar panels, 3 customers, 4 received power measuring device, 5 surplus power measuring device, 8 total received power measuring device, 10 total surplus power measuring device, 31 generated power estimating device, 32 database, 33 receiving unit, 34 fluctuation Periodic decomposition processing unit, 35 generated power estimation processing unit, 36 neighboring solar panel generated power estimation processing unit, 41 generated power estimation device, 42 database.

Claims (6)

Measured received power data is input from a received power measuring device that measures received power of a consumer, and surplus power obtained by subtracting the power used by the consumer from the generated power of the solar panel held by the consumer is measured. Measured surplus power data is input from the surplus power measuring device, and the measured received power data and the measured surplus power data are changed into a fast fluctuation cycle component and a slow fluctuation cycle component based on the data of the past usage power of the consumer. A fluctuation period decomposition processing unit that decomposes and outputs the fluctuation period decomposition result;
The fluctuation period decomposition result output from the fluctuation period decomposition unit, the reference solar radiation data that is the data of the reference solar radiation, and the data of the power generated by the solar panel that has received the solar radiation indicated by the reference solar radiation data The generated power for estimating the generated power of the solar panel based on the reference generated power data and the solar radiation data that is the data indicating the solar radiation at the point where the solar panel is installed in the period for estimating the generated power An estimation processing unit;
A generated power estimation apparatus comprising: Measured total received power data is input from a total received power measurement device that measures the total received power of a plurality of consumers, and the plurality of solar panels owned by the plurality of consumers are used to calculate the plurality of Measured total surplus power data is input from a total surplus power measuring device that measures total surplus power obtained by subtracting the total power used by consumers, and the measured total received power data and the measured total surplus power data are input to the plurality of consumers. A fluctuation period decomposition processing unit that decomposes the fluctuation period into an early fluctuation period component and a slow fluctuation period component based on the past power consumption data and outputs the fluctuation period decomposition result;
The fluctuation period decomposition result output from the fluctuation period decomposition unit, the reference solar radiation data that is the data of the reference solar radiation, and the generated power generated by the plurality of solar panels that have received the solar radiation indicated by the reference solar radiation data Power generation of the plurality of solar panels based on the reference generation power data which is data of the solar radiation and the solar radiation amount data which is data indicating the solar radiation amount at the point where the plurality of solar panels are installed in the period for estimating the generated power A generated power estimation processing unit for estimating the total power,
A generated power estimation apparatus comprising: Surplus power obtained by subtracting the power used by the consumer from the generated power of the first solar panel owned by the consumer, and the measured received power data is input from the received power measurement device that measures the received power of the consumer Measurement surplus power data is input from the surplus power measurement device for measuring the measured received power data and the measured surplus power data based on the past used power data of the consumer, the fast fluctuation period component and the slow fluctuation period component A fluctuation period decomposition processing unit that decomposes the fluctuation period and outputs the result of the fluctuation period decomposition;
The fluctuation period decomposition result output from the fluctuation period decomposition unit, the reference solar radiation data that is the data of the reference solar radiation, and the power generation generated by the first solar panel that has received the solar radiation indicated by the reference solar radiation data The first sunlight based on reference generated power data that is power data and solar radiation data that is data indicating the amount of solar radiation at a location where the first solar panel is installed in a period in which the generated power is estimated. A generated power estimation processing unit for estimating the generated power of the panel;
The generated power of the second solar panel located in the vicinity of the first solar panel is converted into the generated power of the first solar panel estimated by the generated power estimation processing unit. And a neighboring solar panel generated power estimation processing unit that accumulates and estimates an equipment capacity ratio between the second solar panel and the second solar panel;
A generated power estimation apparatus comprising: Measured received power data is input from a received power measuring device that measures received power of a consumer, and surplus power obtained by subtracting the power used by the consumer from the generated power of the solar panel held by the consumer is measured. Measured surplus power data is input from the surplus power measuring device, and the measured received power data and the measured surplus power data are changed into a fast fluctuation cycle component and a slow fluctuation cycle component based on the data of the past usage power of the consumer. A fluctuation period decomposition processing step for decomposing and outputting a result of the fluctuation period decomposition;
The fluctuation period decomposition result of the fluctuation period decomposition step, the reference solar radiation data that is the data of the reference solar radiation, the reference that is the data of the generated power generated by the solar panel that has received the solar radiation indicated by the reference solar radiation data Generation power estimation processing step for estimating the generated power of the solar panel based on the generated power data and the solar radiation data that is the data indicating the solar radiation at the point where the solar panel is installed in the period for estimating the generated power When,
A method for estimating generated power. Measured total received power data is input from a total received power measurement device that measures the total received power of a plurality of consumers, and the plurality of solar panels owned by the plurality of consumers are used to calculate the plurality of Measured total surplus power data is input from a total surplus power measuring device that measures total surplus power obtained by subtracting the total power used by consumers, and the measured total received power data and the measured total surplus power data are input to the plurality of consumers. A fluctuation cycle decomposition processing step of decomposing the fluctuation cycle into an early fluctuation cycle component and a slow fluctuation cycle component based on the past power consumption data and outputting the fluctuation cycle decomposition result;
The fluctuation period decomposition result of the fluctuation period decomposition step, the reference solar radiation data that is the data of the reference solar radiation, and the data of the generated power generated by the plurality of solar panels that have received the solar radiation indicated by the reference solar radiation data Sum of generated power of the plurality of solar panels based on certain reference generated power data and solar radiation data which is data indicating the amount of solar radiation at a point where the plurality of solar panels are installed in a period for estimating the generated power Generated power estimation processing step for estimating
A method for estimating generated power. Surplus power obtained by subtracting the power used by the consumer from the generated power of the first solar panel owned by the consumer, and the measured received power data is input from the received power measurement device that measures the received power of the consumer Measurement surplus power data is input from the surplus power measurement device for measuring the measured received power data and the measured surplus power data based on the past used power data of the consumer, the fast fluctuation period component and the slow fluctuation period component A fluctuation cycle decomposition processing step that outputs a fluctuation cycle decomposition result to
The fluctuation period decomposition result of the fluctuation period decomposition step, the reference solar radiation data that is the data of the reference solar radiation, and the data of the power generated by the first solar panel that has received the solar radiation indicated by the reference solar radiation data Power generation of the first solar panel based on the reference generated power data and the solar radiation data which is the data indicating the solar radiation at the point where the first solar panel is installed in the period for estimating the generated power Generated power estimation processing step for estimating power;
The generated power of the second solar panel located in the vicinity of the first solar panel is used as the generated power of the first solar panel estimated in the generated power estimation processing step. A neighboring solar panel generated power estimation processing step for integrating and estimating the equipment capacity ratio between the second solar panel and the second solar panel;
A method for estimating generated power.

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