JP5279972B1 - Power prediction device - Google Patents

Abstract

A distributed power source in a power line to which a power load to which a first power is supplied and a distributed power source that outputs second power to supply power to the power load are connected to each other. Is a power predicting device for predicting the value of the third power to be generated on the upstream side, the value of the first power in the first time and the first power in the second time before the first time. A first prediction unit that predicts the value of the first power based on a correlation equation that indicates a correlation between the value of the first load and the weather information of the position where the power load is provided in the second time, and the distributed type A second prediction unit that predicts a value of the second power according to a predicted value of weather information at a position where a power source is provided, a prediction result of the first prediction unit, and a prediction result of the second prediction unit; The third power value is predicted according to the difference between the third power It includes a measuring unit.

Description

  The present invention relates to a power prediction apparatus.

  For example, a distribution system having a distribution line to which a load and a distributed power source are connected and power is supplied from a power source upstream of the distributed power source is known (for example, Patent Document 1).

JP 2012-147576 A

  In general, a distribution system including a distribution system of Patent Document 1 is connected to a load and a distributed power source, and has a distribution line to which power is supplied from a power source upstream of the distributed power source. The value of power to be supplied to the electric wire may be predicted. The prediction of the power value is performed based on the value of power previously supplied from the power source to the distribution line, for example. However, the value of power supplied in the past from the power source to the distribution line may fluctuate relatively greatly based on, for example, fluctuations in the value of output power of the distributed power source in response to weather fluctuations. Therefore, the prediction accuracy for predicting the value of power to be supplied from the power source to the distribution line may be reduced.

  The main present invention for solving the above-described problems is a power line to which a power load to which first power is supplied and a distributed power source that outputs second power to supply power to the power load are connected. A power predicting device for predicting a value of the third power to be generated on the upstream side of the distributed power source, wherein the value of the first power at the first time and the first power before the first time. First predicting the value of the first power based on a correlation equation indicating a correlation between the value of the first power in two hours and the weather information of the position where the power load is provided in the second time A prediction unit; a second prediction unit that predicts a value of the second power according to a predicted value of weather information at a position where the distributed power source is provided; a prediction result of the first prediction unit; According to the difference with the prediction result of 2 prediction units, 3 a third prediction unit that predicts a power value of a power prediction device characterized by comprising a.

  Other features of the present invention will become apparent from the accompanying drawings and the description of this specification.

  ADVANTAGE OF THE INVENTION According to this invention, the prediction precision of the value of the electric power which should be generated in the upstream from the distributed power supply in a power line can be improved.

It is a figure which shows the power distribution system in 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the mesh in 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a block diagram which shows the function of the prediction apparatus in 1st and 2nd embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the installation information in 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the tidal current information in 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the weather information in 1st and 2nd embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the past information in 1st and 2nd embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the future information in 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the prediction result of the value of the 2nd demand power of a mesh by the prediction part in 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the prediction result of the value of the 2nd demand power of a predetermined area by the prediction part in 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows operation | movement of the prediction apparatus in 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows an example of the prediction result of the prediction apparatus in 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the power distribution system in 2nd Embodiment of this invention.

  At least the following matters will become apparent from the description of this specification and the accompanying drawings.

[First embodiment]
=== Distribution system ===
Hereinafter, the power distribution system in the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 1 is a diagram showing a power distribution system in the present embodiment.

  The distribution system 100 is a power system for supplying power from the substation 200 to, for example, loads R3 to R5 (power load).

  The distribution system 100 includes a substation 200, a prediction device 8, a weather observation device 71, 72 (observation device), a weather information device 73, consumers 300, 400, 500, and a distribution line L10 (power line). For example, the number of distribution lines provided in the distribution system 100 may be two or more. In the power distribution system 100, for convenience of explanation, of the meshes N1 to N15 (FIG. 2), the consumers 300 and 400 in the mesh N1 and the consumers 500 in the mesh N2 are shown. The meshes N1 to N15 correspond to a plurality of areas. The meshes N1 to N15 will be described later.

  The substation 200 is, for example, a distribution substation for stepping down the power supplied from the upstream side and supplying the stepped down power to the distribution line L10. The substation 200 includes a distribution transformer 201 and a bus L2.

  The distribution transformer 201 is a device that transforms, for example, a primary side voltage at a predetermined transformation ratio and outputs the transformed voltage from the secondary side. The primary side of distribution transformer 201 is connected to one end of transmission line L200. The transmission line L200 is a transmission line for supplying, for example, a voltage from a primary substation (not shown) upstream of the substation 200 to the substation 200. The secondary side of distribution transformer 201 is connected to bus L2.

  The bus L2 is a power line for supplying the power from the distribution transformer 201 to the distribution line L10, and is provided in the substation 200, for example.

  The distribution line L10 is a power line extending from the upstream substation 200 toward the downstream side. One end on the upstream side of the distribution line L10 is connected to a connection point C2 on the bus L2.

  The consumers 300, 400, 500 are connected to the distribution line L10. The customers 300, 400, and 500 will be described later.

  The meteorological observation apparatus 71 is an apparatus for observing the meteorology at the position where the meteorological observation apparatus 71 is provided. The weather observation device 71 is provided at a predetermined position in the mesh N1 so that the weather of the mesh N1 (FIG. 2) can be observed. The weather observation device 71 will be described later. The weather observation device 72 is a device for observing the weather at the position where the weather observation device 72 is provided. The weather observation device 72 is provided at a predetermined position in the mesh N2 so that the weather of the mesh N2 (FIG. 2) can be observed. The weather observation device 72 will be described later.

  The weather information device 73 is a device that is provided in the Japan Meteorological Agency 700, for example, and outputs a weather signal S73 indicating GPV (Grid Point Value) data. The GPV data includes, for example, information indicating the temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloud cover, atmospheric pressure, wind direction, wind speed, and solar radiation (hereinafter also referred to as “temperature etc.”) in each of the meshes N1 to N15. It shall be. It is assumed that the GPV data includes information indicating a past temperature and the like and information indicating a predicted value such as a future temperature. In addition, the weather information device 73 is assumed to estimate and predict past and future temperatures and the like in each of the meshes N1 to N15, for example, by simulation based on a predetermined program.

  The prediction device 8 is a device that predicts the value of the first demand power in each of the meshes N1 to N15 and the value of the second demand power in each of the meshes N1 to N15, for example. The first demand power in each of the meshes N1 to N15 and the second demand power in each of the meshes N1 to N15 will be described later. Further, the prediction device 8 predicts the value of the second demand power in the predetermined area N100 (FIG. 2), for example. Note that the second demand power in the prediction device 8 and the predetermined area N100 will be described later.

=== Mesh ===
Hereinafter, the mesh in the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 2 is a diagram showing a mesh in the present embodiment.

  The meshes N1 to N15 are regions formed by dividing a predetermined region N100 such as the Chugoku region in the Japanese archipelago and the periphery of the predetermined region N100 based on a predetermined rule. The meshes N1 to N15 are regions corresponding to GPV data indicated by the weather signal S73 output from the weather information device 73, for example. Each of the meshes N1 to N15 is, for example, a substantially rectangular area of 20 km square. Each of the meshes N1 to N15 may be, for example, a substantially rectangular area of 5 kilometers square.

  The mesh N1 is provided with, for example, two consumers 300 and 400 for convenience of explanation, and the mesh N2 is provided with, for example, one consumer 500 of the customer 500 for convenience of explanation. And For the convenience of explanation, for example, it is assumed that a predetermined number of consumers having the same configuration as any of the consumers 300 to 500 are provided in the meshes N3 to N15.

=== Customer ===
Hereinafter, with reference to FIG. 1, the consumer in this embodiment is demonstrated.

  The consumer 300 is provided in the mesh N1, for example. The customer 300 includes a distribution line L3, a load R3, a generator G3, and a measuring device M3.

  The distribution line L3 is a power line connected between the distribution line L10, the load R3, and the generator G3 (distributed power supply). One end of the distribution line L3 is connected to a connection point C31 in the distribution line L10. The other end of the distribution line L3 is connected to the load R3 and the generator G3 via the connection point C32.

  The load R3 is a power load connected to the connection point C31 of the distribution line L10 via the distribution line L3. The load R3 is supplied with electric power P311 (first electric power) according to the operating state of the load R3. That is, the power P311 is consumed by the load R3.

  The generator G3 is a distributed power source such as a solar power generation device or a wind power generation device. The generator G3 is connected to the connection point C31 of the distribution line L10 via the distribution line L3. The generator G3 outputs power P312 (second power) according to the amount of power generated by the generator G3. That is, the generator G3 outputs electric power P312 to supply electric power to the load R3, for example.

  The measuring device M3 is a device that measures the power P311 supplied to the load R3 in the distribution line L3 and outputs a measurement signal S3 indicating the measurement result. Note that the measurement signal S3 is a signal in which information indicating the measurement result of the measurement apparatus M3 is associated with information indicating the time (current time) when the measurement is performed.

  The consumer 400 is provided in the mesh N1, for example. The customer 400 includes a distribution line L4, a load R4, a generator G4, and a measuring device M4. The configurations of the distribution line L4, the load R4, the generator G4, and the measuring device M4 are the same as the configurations of the distribution line L3, the load R3, the generator G3, and the measuring device M3 in the customer 300, respectively, and thus the description thereof is omitted. To do. Note that the power P411 supplied to the load R4 corresponds to the first power. The power P412 output from the generator G4 corresponds to the second power.

  The customer 500 is provided in the mesh N2, for example. The customer 500 includes a distribution line L5, a load R5, a generator G5, and a measuring device M5. The configurations of the distribution line L5, the load R5, the generator G5, and the measuring device M5 are the same as the configurations of the distribution line L3, the load R3, the generator G3, and the measuring device M3 in the customer 300, respectively, and thus the description thereof is omitted. To do. The power P511 supplied to the load R5 corresponds to the first power. The power P512 output from the generator G5 corresponds to the second power.

  In addition, since the structure of the consumer provided in mesh N3 thru | or N15 is the same as the structure of the consumer 300, the description is abbreviate | omitted.

  Note that the prediction device 8, the weather observation devices 71 and 72, and the measurement devices M3, M4, and M5 correspond to a power prediction device.

=== First Demand Power, Second Demand Power ===
Hereinafter, with reference to FIG. 1, the 1st demand power and 2nd demand power in this embodiment are demonstrated. The description will be divided into the value of the first demand power in each of the meshes N1 to N15, the value of the second demand power in each of the meshes N1 to N15, and the value of the second demand power in the predetermined area N100.

= Value of first demand power in each of meshes N1 to N15 =
The first demand power in each of the meshes N1 to N15 (hereinafter also referred to as “first demand power of each of the meshes N1 to N15”) (first power) indicates the power supplied to the load in each of the meshes N1 to N15. ing. The value of the first demand power of each of the meshes N1 to N15 is, for example, the value of the power supplied to the load in each of the meshes N1 to N15.

  The value of the 1st demand power of the mesh N1 has shown the sum total of the value of the electric power supplied to each load in the mesh N1. For example, the value of the first demand power PN1 of the mesh N1 is the sum of the value of the power P311 supplied to the load R3 and the value of the power P411 supplied to the load R4. Moreover, the value of the 1st demand power of the mesh N2 has shown the sum total of the value of the electric power supplied to each load in the mesh N2. For example, the value of the first demand power of the mesh N2 is the value of the power P511 supplied to the load R5. In addition, since the value of the 1st demand power of the meshes N3 to N15 has the same configuration as the value of the 1st demand power of the mesh N1, the description thereof is omitted.

= The value of the second demand power in each of the meshes N1 to N15 =
The second demand power in each of the meshes N1 to N15 (hereinafter also referred to as “second demand power of each of the meshes N1 to N15”) (third power) is supplied from, for example, the substation 200 to each of the meshes N1 to N15. Indicates the power to be done. The value of the second demand power of each of the meshes N1 to N15 is, for example, a value based on the difference in the value of the output power of each generator of the meshes N1 to N15 with respect to the value of the first demand power of each of the meshes N1 to N15. . Note that the output power of each of the generators of the meshes N1 to N15 will be described later.

  For example, the value of the second demand power PL1 of the mesh N1 is a value obtained by subtracting the value of the output power PG1 of the generator of the mesh N1 from the value of the first demand power PN1 of the mesh N1. Since the value of the second demand power of each of the meshes N2 to N15 has the same configuration as the value of the second demand power PL1 of the mesh N1, the description thereof is omitted.

  The output power of the generators of the meshes N1 to N15 indicates the power output from the generators of the meshes N1 to N15. The value of the output power of each of the generators of the meshes N1 to N15 is, for example, the value of the power output from the generator of each of the meshes N1 to N15. The value of the output power of the generator of the mesh N1 indicates the total sum of the values of power output from each of the generators in the mesh N1. For example, the value of the output power PG1 of the generator of the mesh N1 is the sum of the value of the power P312 output from the generator G3 and the value of the power P412 output from the generator G4. Further, the value of the output power of the generator of the mesh N2 indicates the sum of the values of the power output from the generators in the mesh N2. For example, the value of the output power of the mesh N2 generator is the value of the power P512 output from the generator G5. Note that the output power values of the generators of the meshes N3 to N15 have the same configuration as that of the output power of the generator of the mesh N1, and thus the description thereof is omitted.

= Value of the second demand power in the predetermined area N100 =
The second demand power in the predetermined area N100 (hereinafter, also referred to as “second demand power in the predetermined area N100”) (third power) indicates the power to be supplied from the substation 200 to the predetermined area N100, for example. ing. That is, the second demand power in the predetermined area N100 indicates the power that should be generated on the upstream side of the distributed power sources G3 to G4 in the distribution line L10. The value of the 2nd demand power of the predetermined area N100 has shown the value of the electric power which should be generated with the generator of the electric power company in the predetermined area N100. The value of the second demand power PL in the predetermined area N100 is, for example, the sum of the values of the second demand power of each of the meshes N1 to N15.

=== Meteorological observation equipment ===
Hereinafter, the meteorological observation apparatus according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG.

  The weather observation device 71 observes the weather on the mesh N1 as described above. The weather observation device 71 observes the temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloud cover, atmospheric pressure, wind direction, and wind speed in the mesh N1, and outputs an observation signal S71 indicating the observation result. Note that the observation signal S71 is a signal in which information indicating the observation result of the weather observation device 71 and information indicating the time (current time) when the observation is performed are associated with each other.

  As described above, the meteorological observation device 72 observes the weather in the mesh N2. The weather observation device 72 observes the temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloud cover, atmospheric pressure, wind direction, and wind speed in the mesh N2, and outputs an observation signal S72 indicating the observation result. Note that the observation signal S72 is a signal in which information indicating the observation result of the meteorological observation device 72 is associated with information indicating the time (current time) when the observation is performed.

  The meshes N3 to N15 are also provided with meteorological observation devices (not shown) for observing the weather in each of the meshes N3 to N15. The configuration of the meteorological observation device that observes the weather in each of the meshes N3 to N15 is the same as the configuration of the meteorological observation device 71, and thus the description thereof is omitted.

=== Prediction device ===
Hereinafter, with reference to FIG.1 and FIG.3, the prediction apparatus in this embodiment is demonstrated. FIG. 3 is a block diagram illustrating functions of the prediction device according to the present embodiment.

  For example, the prediction device 8 predicts the value of the first demand power of each of the meshes N1 to N15 (calculates the predicted value of the first demand power of each of the meshes N1 to N15). Specifically, the prediction device 8 predicts the value of the first demand power in the mesh N1 based on the measurement signals S3 and S4, the observation signal S71, and the like. Further, the prediction device 8 predicts the value of the first demand power in the mesh N2 based on the measurement signal S5, the observation signal S72, and the like. In addition, the prediction device 8 outputs a measurement signal output from a customer measurement device provided in each of the meshes N3 to N15, an observation signal output from a weather observation device provided in each of the meshes N3 to N15, and the like. Based on this, the value of the first demand power of each of the meshes N3 to N15 is predicted.

  Further, for example, the prediction device 8 predicts the value of the second demand power of each of the meshes N1 to N15 (calculates the predicted value of the second demand power of each of the meshes N1 to N15). Specifically, the prediction device 8 predicts the value of the second demand power of each of the meshes N1 to N15 based on the value of the first demand power of each of the meshes N1 to N15, the weather signal S73, and the like.

  Furthermore, the prediction device 8 predicts the value of the second demand power in the predetermined area N100, for example.

  Here, the measurement signals S3, S4, S5, the measurement signals output from the customer measuring devices provided in the meshes N3 to N15, the observation signals S71, S72, and the weather provided in the meshes N3 to N15, respectively. The observation signal output from the observation apparatus is also referred to as “each signal”. In addition, the measuring devices M3, M4, M5, the customer measuring devices provided in each of the meshes N3 to N15, the meteorological observation devices 71 and 72, and the meteorological observation devices provided in the meshes N3 to N15 are referred to as “each”. Also referred to as “apparatus”.

  The prediction device 8 includes an input unit 81, an output unit 82, a display unit 83, a transmission / reception unit 84, a storage unit 85, a prediction formula generation unit 86, a prediction unit 87, and a control unit 88.

The input unit 81 is, for example, a keyboard for inputting information to the prediction device 8.
The output unit 82 is, for example, a printer for outputting information to the outside of the prediction device 8.
The display unit 83 is, for example, a monitor for displaying information input to the prediction device 8 or displaying information output from the prediction device 8.

  The transmission / reception unit 84 communicates with each device. It is assumed that the prediction device 8 is connected to each device via, for example, a communication cable (not shown) or a wireless communication network (not shown) so as to be able to communicate with each device. The transmission / reception unit 84 receives each signal output from each device at a predetermined cycle, for example, every 30 minutes. Each signal may be output from each device at a predetermined cycle, for example. Further, each signal may be output based on a request signal (not shown) transmitted from the transmission / reception unit 84 to each device at a predetermined cycle, for example. It is assumed that the current time (measurement time) indicated in each signal received by the transmission / reception unit 84 is synchronized with each other, for example.

  Further, the transmission / reception unit 84 also communicates with the weather information device 73. It is assumed that the prediction device 8 is also connected to the weather information device 73 via, for example, a communication cable (not shown) or a wireless communication network (not shown) so as to be able to communicate with the weather information device 73.

  The storage unit 85 includes, for example, a first area 851, a second area 852, and a third area 853.

  In the first area 851, for example, a program for operating the prediction device 8 is stored. The first area 851 further stores, for example, a program for generating a prediction formula (correlation formula) and a program for performing prediction. The prediction formula will be described later.

  In the second area 852, for example, facility information Z1 (FIG. 4), tidal current information Z2 (FIG. 5), weather information Z3 (FIG. 6), and future information Z5 (FIG. 8) are stored. The facility information Z1, tidal current information Z2, weather information Z3, and future information Z5 will be described later.

  In the third area 853, for example, past information Z4 (FIG. 7) is stored. The past information Z4 will be described later.

  The prediction formula generation unit 86 generates past information Z4 based on, for example, facility information Z1, tidal current information Z2, weather information Z3, and the like, and stores the past information Z4 in the third area 853. The prediction formula generation unit 86 generates a prediction formula for each of the meshes N1 to N15 based on the past information Z4 and the like. The prediction formula is a formula for predicting the value of the first demand power in each of the meshes N1 to N15. Since the prediction formula for predicting the first demand power in the mesh N1 and the prediction formula for predicting the first demand power in the meshes N2 to N15 have the same configuration, the first formula in the mesh N1 Only the prediction formula for predicting the demand power will be described, and the description of each prediction formula for predicting the first demand power in the meshes N2 to N15 will be omitted. The prediction formula will be described later.

  The prediction unit 87 calculates the predicted value of the first demand power in each of the meshes N1 to N15 based on the prediction formula generated by the prediction formula generation unit 86. Further, the prediction unit 87 predicts the output power of each generator of the meshes N1 to N15 (calculates the predicted value of the output power of each generator of the meshes N1 to N15). Further, the prediction unit 87 generates a second value in the predetermined area N100 based on the calculated predicted value of the first demand power in each of the meshes N1 to N15 and the predicted value of the output power of the generator in each of the meshes N1 to N15. Calculate the predicted value of power demand. The prediction unit 87 will be described later.

  The control unit 88 controls the prediction formula generation unit 86 based on, for example, a program for generating a prediction formula. The control unit 88 controls the prediction unit 87 based on, for example, a program for performing prediction. The control unit 88 controls the operation of the prediction device 8 based on, for example, a program for operating the prediction device 8.

=== Facility information ===
Hereinafter, the facility information in the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 4 is a diagram showing facility information in the present embodiment. In the facility information Z1, for convenience of explanation, measuring devices M3, M4, and M5 provided on the meshes N1 and N2 are shown.

  In the facility information Z1, the measuring devices (for example, measuring devices M3, M4, and M5) provided to consumers in the predetermined area N100 (FIG. 2) are provided in any mesh among the meshes N1 to N15. It is information indicating whether or not. In the facility information Z1, meshes provided with the measurement devices M3, M4, and M5 are associated with the measurement devices M3, M4, and M5. In the facility information Z1, the mesh N1 is associated with the measuring device M3, the mesh N1 is associated with the measuring device M4, and the mesh N2 is associated with the measuring device M5.

  For example, in the facility information Z1, a unique number may be assigned to each of the measuring devices M3, M4, and M5, and the number and the mesh may be associated with each other.

  The facility information Z1 is input or updated using the input unit 81, for example.

=== Tidal current information ===
Hereinafter, tidal current information in the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 5 is a diagram showing tidal current information in the present embodiment. In the tidal current information Z2 in FIG. 5, tidal current information based on the measurement signals S3, S4, and S5 output from the measuring devices M3, M4, and M5 provided in the meshes N1 and N2 is shown for convenience of explanation. Yes.

  The tidal current information Z2 is information based on the measurement signals S3, S4, and S5 received by the transmission / reception unit 84. That is, the tidal current information Z2 is information in the past. In the tidal current information Z2, the time indicated by the measurement signals S3, S4, S5, the value of the power P311 (hereinafter also referred to as “tidal current P311”) indicated by the measurement signal S3, and the measurement signal S4 are indicated. The value of the power P411 (hereinafter also referred to as “tidal current P411”) and the value of the power P511 (hereinafter also referred to as “tidal current P511”) indicated in the measurement signal S5 are associated with each other. In the tidal current information Z2, the associated information is sequentially stored each time the transmitting / receiving unit 84 receives each signal.

  In the tidal current information Z2, the times T1 to Tn are arranged in time series so that the time T1 is the past time closest to the present among the times T1 to Tn, and the time Tn is the past time farthest from the present. ing.

  In the tidal current information Z2, tidal currents P311 (T1), P311 (T2), and P311 (Tn) indicate the values of the tidal current P311 at times T1, T2, and Tn, respectively, and the tidal currents P411 (T1), P411 (T2), P411 (Tn) indicates the value of the tidal current P411 at times T1, T2, and Tn, respectively, and the tidal currents P511 (T1), P511 (T2), and P511 (Tn) indicate the values of the tidal current P511 at times T1, T2, and Tn, respectively. Is shown.

=== Weather information ===
Hereinafter, weather information in the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 6 is a diagram showing the weather information in the present embodiment. In the weather information Z3 in FIG. 6, for convenience of explanation, weather information based on the observation signal S71 output from the weather observation device 71 that observes the weather in the mesh N1 is shown.

  The weather information Z3 is information based on the observation signal S71 received by the transmission / reception unit 84. That is, the weather information Z3 is information in the past regarding the mesh N1. In the weather information Z3, the time indicated by the observation signal S71 is associated with the values indicated by the temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloud cover, atmospheric pressure, wind direction, and wind speed indicated by the observation signal S71. Note that values indicating temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloud cover, atmospheric pressure, wind direction, and wind speed are also simply referred to as temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloud cover, atmospheric pressure, wind direction, and wind speed, respectively. In the weather information Z3, each time the transmission / reception unit 84 receives each signal, the associated information is sequentially stored.

  Times T1 to Tn in the weather information Z3 have the same configuration as the times T1 to Tn in the tidal current information Z2.

  In the weather information Z3, temperatures A (T1), A (T2), and A (Tn) indicate temperatures at the mesh N1 at times T1, T2, and Tn, respectively, and humidity B (T1) and B (T2). , B (Tn) indicate the humidity at mesh N1 at times T1, T2, and Tn, respectively, and precipitation amounts D (T1), D (T2), and D (Tn) are meshes at times T1, T2, and Tn, respectively. N1 represents the precipitation amount, and cloud amounts E (T1), E (T2), and E (Tn) respectively represent the cloud amount at the mesh N1 at times T1, T2, and Tn, and atmospheric pressures F (T1) and F (T2). ), F (Tn) indicate the atmospheric pressure at the mesh N1 at times T1, T2, and Tn, respectively, and the wind directions H (T1), H (T2), and H (Tn) indicate the mesh at times T1, T2, and Tn, respectively. Indicates the wind direction at N1, and wind speeds Q (T1), Q (T2 , Q (Tn) are, respectively, it shows the wind speed of a mesh N1 at time T1, T2, Tn.

=== Past Information ===
Hereinafter, the past information in the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 7 is a diagram showing past information in the present embodiment.

  The past information Z4 is past information in the mesh N1. Note that the configuration of the past information in each of the meshes N2 to N15 is the same as the configuration of the past information Z4 in the mesh N1, and thus description thereof is omitted.

  In the past information Z4, the time indicated in the tidal current information Z2 and the weather information Z3, the value of the first demand power PN1 in the mesh N1, the temperature, humidity, precipitation in the mesh N1 indicated in the weather information Z3, Cloud amount, atmospheric pressure, wind direction, and wind speed are associated with each other. The value of the first demand power PN1 in the mesh N1 is the sum of the value of the power flow P311 and the value of the power flow P411.

  In the past information Z4, the first demand power PN1 (T1), PN1 (T2), and PN1 (Tn) indicate the values of the first demand power at the times T1, T2, and Tn in the mesh N1, respectively. The first demand power PN1 (T1) is the sum of the tidal current P311 (T1) and the tidal current P411 (T1). The first demand power PN1 (T2) is the sum of the power flow P311 (T2) and the value of the forward power flow P411 (T2). The first demand power PN1 (Tn) is the sum of the tidal current P31 (Tn) and the forward tidal current P41 (Tn). In addition, these calculations are performed by the prediction formula production | generation part 86, for example.

=== Future information ===
Hereinafter, the future information in the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 8 is a diagram showing future information in the present embodiment.

  The future information Z5 is information based on the weather signal S73 received by the transmission / reception unit 34. That is, the future information Z5 is information indicating a predicted value in the GPV data. The future information Z5 includes, for example, each time every 30 minutes from 30 minutes after the current time until one day has passed (24 hours), and the temperature, humidity, and precipitation amount at the mesh N1 at each time. Are associated with predicted values of cloud cover, atmospheric pressure, wind direction, wind speed, and solar radiation. The future information Z5 is, for example, each time every 30 minutes from midnight to midnight the next day, and the temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloud cover, atmospheric pressure in the mesh N1 at each time. The wind direction, the wind speed, and the predicted value of the amount of solar radiation may be associated with each other. The future information Z5 may be updated to information based on the latest weather signal S73, for example, every time the transmitter / receiver 34 receives the weather signal S73.

  In the future information Z5, the times Tf1 to Tfn are arranged in time series so that the time Tf1 of the times Tf1 to Tfn is the future time closest to the current time, and the time Tfn is the future time farthest from the current time. Yes.

  Further, in the future information Z5, predicted temperatures A1 (Tf1), A1 (Tf2), and A1 (Tfn) indicate predicted temperatures of the mesh N1 at times Tf1, Tf2, and Tfn, respectively. The predicted humidity values B1 (Tf1), B1 (Tf2), and B1 (Tfn) indicate the predicted humidity values of the mesh N1 at times Tf1, Tf2, and Tfn, respectively. Predicted precipitation values D1 (Tf1), D1 (Tf2), and D1 (Tfn) indicate predicted precipitation values of the mesh N1 at times Tf1, Tf2, and Tfn, respectively. Cloud amount prediction values E1 (Tf1), E1 (Tf2), and E1 (Tfn) indicate prediction values of the cloud amount of the mesh N1 at times Tf1, Tf2, and Tfn, respectively. The predicted atmospheric pressure values F1 (Tf1), F1 (Tf2), and F1 (Tfn) indicate the predicted atmospheric pressure values of the mesh N1 at times Tf1, Tf2, and Tfn, respectively. Predicted values H1 (Tf1), H1 (Tf2), and H1 (Tfn) of the wind direction indicate predicted values of the atmospheric pressure of the mesh N1 at times Tf1, Tf2, and Tfn, respectively. The predicted wind speed values Q1 (Tf1), Q1 (Tf2), and Q1 (Tfn) indicate the predicted wind speed values of the mesh N1 at times Tf1, Tf2, and Tfn, respectively. Predicted values of solar radiation U1 (Tf1), U1 (Tf2), and U1 (Tfn) indicate predicted values of the temperature of the mesh N1 at times Tf1, Tf2, and Tfn, respectively.

  It is assumed that future information indicating predicted values such as temperatures in the meshes N2 to N15 is also stored in the second area 852. The configuration of the future information in which the predicted values such as the temperature in each of the meshes N2 to N15 are shown is the same as the configuration of the future information Z5, and thus the description thereof is omitted.

=== Prediction Formula Generation Unit ===
Hereinafter, with reference to FIGS. 3 to 7, the prediction formula generation unit in the present embodiment will be described.

= Generation and storage of past information =
The prediction formula generation unit 86 generates past information Z4 related to the mesh N1 based on the facility information Z1, the tidal current information Z2, the weather information Z3, and the like. The prediction formula generation unit 86 stores the past information Z4 in the third area 853.

尚、係数ｐ１乃至ｐｉ、係数ａ１乃至ａｉ、係数ｂ１乃至ｂｉ、係数ｄ１乃至ｄｉ、係数ｅ１乃至ｅｉ、係数ｆ１乃至ｆｉ、係数ｈ１乃至ｈｉ、係数ｑ１乃至ｑｉは、過去情報Ｚ４に示されている情報等に基づいて、例えば重回帰分析、例えば重回帰分析を用いて、予測式生成部８６により算出（決定）される定数である。= Generation of prediction formula =
The prediction formula generation unit 86 generates a prediction formula (Formula 1) for predicting the first demand power in the mesh N1 based on the past information Z4.

The coefficients p1 to pi, coefficients a1 to ai, coefficients b1 to bi, coefficients d1 to di, coefficients e1 to ei, coefficients f1 to fi, coefficients h1 to hi, coefficients q1 to qi are shown in the past information Z4. The constant is calculated (determined) by the prediction formula generation unit 86 using, for example, multiple regression analysis, for example, multiple regression analysis, based on the information and the like.

  The coefficients p1 to pi correspond to first constants, and may be the same constants or different constants. The coefficients a1 to ai, the coefficients b1 to bi, the coefficients d1 to di, the coefficients e1 to ei, the coefficients f1 to fi, the coefficients h1 to hi, and the coefficients q1 to qi correspond to the second constants, and are the same constants. There may be constants different from each other.

  The integer i is an integer corresponding to an integer that is greater than or equal to the integer 1 and smaller than the integer n in the past information Z4, for example. The past demand powers PN1 (t-1), PN1 (t-2), and PN1 (t-i) are respectively the past demand powers PN1 (T1), PN1 (T2), and PN1 (Ti) of the past information Z4, for example. ). The past temperatures A (t-1), A (t-2), and A (t-i) are, for example, the past temperatures A (T1), A (T2), and A (Ti) in the past information Z4, respectively. It corresponds. The past humidity B (t-1), B (t-2), and B (t-i) are, for example, the past humidity B (T1), B (T2), and B (Ti) in the past information Z4, respectively. It corresponds. The past precipitations D (t−1), D (t−2), and D (t−i) are, for example, past precipitations D (T1), D (T2), and D (Ti) of the past information Z4, respectively. ). The past cloud amounts E (t-1), E (t-2), and E (t-i) are, for example, the past cloud amounts E (T1), E (T2), and E (Ti) in the past information Z4, respectively. It corresponds. The past atmospheric pressures F (t-1), F (t-2), and F (t-i) are, for example, the past atmospheric pressures F (T1), F (T2), and F (Ti) in the past information Z4, respectively. It corresponds. The past wind directions H (t−1), H (t−2), and H (t−i) are, for example, the past wind directions H (T1), H (T2), and H (Ti) in the past information Z4, respectively. It corresponds. The past wind speeds Q (t-1), Q (t-2), and Q (t-i) are, for example, the past wind speeds Q (T1), Q (T2), and Q (Ti) of the past information Z4, respectively. It corresponds.

  In Equation 1, the value of the first demand power PN1 (t) at time t (first time) and, for example, time t-1 and t− in the past (previous) time zone (second time) before time t. A correlation is shown between the value of the first demand power at 2 to ti and the value indicating the weather information at times t-1 and t-2 to ti.

  In Equation 1, the first demand power PN1 (t) of the mesh N1 at the predetermined time t is a time past the predetermined time t (for example, time t-1, t-2, ..., ti). It is shown that the calculation is based on the first demand power, temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloud cover, atmospheric pressure, wind direction, wind speed, etc. of each mesh N1. Therefore, it is possible to calculate the predicted value of the first demand power in the mesh N1 using the formula 1.

  The prediction formula generation unit 86 may store information indicating the generated prediction formula (for example, Formula 1) in, for example, the third region 853.

  The prediction formula generation unit 86 generates prediction formulas for predicting the first demand power in the meshes N2 to N15, similarly to the generation of the prediction formula for predicting the first demand power in the mesh N1.

=== Prediction unit ===
Hereinafter, the prediction unit in the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIGS. 9 and 10. FIG. 9 is a diagram illustrating a prediction result of the value of the second demand power of the mesh by the prediction unit in the present embodiment. FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating a prediction result of the value of the second demand power in the predetermined area by the prediction unit in the present embodiment.

  In FIG. 9, the times Tf1 to Tfn have the same configuration as the times Tf1 to Tfn in the future information Z5. Further, in FIG. 9, the first demand power PN1 (Tf1), PN1 (Tf2), and PN1 (Tfn) of the mesh N1, for example, predict the first demand power of the mesh N1 at future times Tf1, Tf2, and Tfn, respectively. The value is shown. The output powers PG1 (Tf1), PG1 (Tf2), and PG1 (Tfn) of the generator of the mesh N1 indicate predicted values of the output power of the generator of the mesh N1 at, for example, future times Tf1, Tf2, and Tfn, respectively. Yes. The second demand power PL1 (Tf1), PL1 (Tf2), and PL1 (Tfn) of the mesh N1 indicate predicted values of the second demand power of the mesh N1 at, for example, future times Tf1, Tf2, and Tfn, respectively.

  In FIG. 10, each of the times Tf1 to Tfn has the same configuration as the times Tf1 to Tfn in the future information Z5, for example. Further, in FIG. 10, the second demand power PL1 (Tf1), PL1 (Tf2), and PL1 (Tfn) of the mesh N1, for example, predict the second demand power of the mesh N1 at the future times Tf1, Tf2, and Tfn, respectively. The value is shown. The second demand power PL2 (Tf1), PL2 (Tf2), and PL2 (Tfn) of the mesh N2 indicate predicted values of the second demand power of the mesh N2 at, for example, future times Tf1, Tf2, and Tfn, respectively. The second demand power PL15 (Tf1), PL15 (Tf2), and PL15 (Tfn) of the mesh N15 indicate predicted values of the second demand power of the mesh N15 at, for example, future times Tf1, Tf2, and Tfn, respectively.

= Prediction of the value of the first demand power of each of the meshes N1 to N15 =
The prediction unit 87 calculates the predicted value of the first demand power in each of the meshes N1 to N15 (for example, the predicted value of the first demand power PN1 to PN15) based on the prediction formula generated by the prediction formula generation unit 86. .

  The function of the prediction unit 87 that predicts the value of the first demand power of each of the meshes N1 to N15 corresponds to the first prediction unit.

= Prediction of output power value of each generator of meshes N1 to N15 =
The prediction unit 87 calculates the predicted value of the output power of each of the generators of the meshes N1 to N15 based on the future information Z5 and the like. Since the prediction of the output power value of the generator of the mesh N1 and the prediction of the output power value of the generators of the meshes N2 to N15 have the same configuration, the output power of the generator of the mesh N1 Only the prediction of the value will be described, and the description of the prediction of the output power value of each generator of the meshes N2 to N15 will be omitted.

  For example, when the generators G3 and G4 are solar power generation devices, the prediction unit 87 calculates a product of a value indicating a predicted value U1 (Tf1) to U1 (Tfn) of the solar radiation amount in the mesh N1 and a predetermined constant, Predicted values P312 (Tf1) to P312 (Tfn) of output power of the generator G3 at future times Tf1 to Tfn, and predicted values P412 (Tf1) to P412 of output power of the generator G4 at future times Tf1 to Tfn. (Tfn). The predetermined constant is a real number determined in advance based on the relationship between the amount of solar radiation in the past mesh N1 and the output power values of the generators G3 and G4. The prediction unit 87 calculates the sum of the predicted value of the output power P312 of the generator G3 and the predicted value of the output power P412 of the generator G4 at each future time Tf1 to Tfn as the output power of the generator of the mesh N1. Calculated as the predicted value PG1.

  For example, the prediction unit 87 calculates the sum of the predicted value P312 (Tf1) of the output power of the generator G3 at the time Tf1 and the predicted value P412 (Tf1) of the output power of the generator G4 as the generator of the mesh N1 at the time Tf1. Output power PG1 (Tf1). For example, the prediction unit 87 calculates the sum of the predicted value P312 (Tf2) of the output power of the generator G3 at the time Tf2 and the predicted value P412 (Tf2) of the output power of the generator G4 of the mesh N1 at the time Tf2. The output power PG1 (Tf2) of the generator is assumed. Further, for example, the prediction unit 87 calculates the sum of the predicted value P312 (Tfn) of the output power of the generator G3 at the time Tfn and the predicted value P412 (Tfn) of the output power of the generator G4 of the mesh N1 at the time Tfn. The output power PG1 (Tfn) of the generator is assumed.

  Note that the function of the prediction unit 87 that predicts the output power values of the generators of the meshes N1 to N15 corresponds to the second prediction unit.

= Prediction of the value of the second demand power of each of the meshes N1 to N15 =
The predicting unit 87 predicts the second demand power of each of the meshes N1 to N15 based on the predicted value of the first demand power of each of the meshes N1 to N15 and the predicted value of the output power of each of the generators of the meshes N1 to N15. Calculate the value. Note that the second demand power prediction for the mesh N1 and the second demand power prediction for each of the meshes N2 to N15 have the same configuration, so only the second demand power prediction for the mesh N1 will be described. The description of the prediction of the second demand power for each of N2 to N15 is omitted.

  The prediction unit 87 subtracts the predicted value of the output power PG1 of the generator of the mesh N1 at each future time from the predicted value of the first demand power of the mesh N1 at each future time at each future time. The predicted value of the second demand power of the mesh N1.

  For example, the prediction unit 87 subtracts the predicted value PG1 (Tf1) of the output power of the generator from the predicted value PN1 (Tf1) of the first demand power at the time Tf1, and the predicted value of the second demand power of the mesh N1. It is assumed that PL1 (Tf1). Further, for example, the prediction unit 87 subtracts the predicted value PG1 (Tf2) of the output power of the generator from the predicted value PN1 (Tf2) of the first demand power at the time Tf2 as the second demand power of the mesh N1. The predicted value is PL1 (Tf2). Further, for example, the prediction unit 87 subtracts the predicted value PG1 (Tfn) of the output power of the generator from the predicted value PN1 (Tfn) of the first demand power at the time Tfn as the second demand power of the mesh N1. The predicted value is PL1 (Tfn).

  The function of the prediction unit 87 that predicts the value of the second demand power of each of the meshes N1 to N15 corresponds to the third prediction unit.

= Prediction of the value of the second demand power in the predetermined area N100 =
The prediction unit 87 calculates the predicted value of the second demand power PL in the predetermined area N100 based on the predicted value of the second demand power of each of the meshes N1 to N15. The prediction unit 87 sets the sum of the predicted values of the second demand power of each of the meshes N1 to N15 as the predicted value of the second demand power PL of the predetermined area N100.

  For example, the prediction unit 87 calculates the sum of the predicted values PL1 (Tf1) and PL2 (Tf1) to PL15 (Tf1) of the second demand power at time Tf1 as the predicted value of the second demand power PL at the predetermined area N100 at time Tf1. Let PL (Tf1). In addition, for example, the prediction unit 87 calculates the sum of the predicted values PL1 (Tf2) and PL2 (Tf2) to PL15 (Tf2) of the second demand power at time Tf2 as the second demand power PL in the predetermined area N100 at time Tf2. The predicted value PL (Tf2) is used. Further, for example, the prediction unit 87 calculates the sum of the predicted values PL1 (Tfn) and PL2 (Tfn) to PL15 (Tfn) of the second demand power at the time Tfn as the second demand power PL in the predetermined area N100 at the time Tfn. The predicted value PL (Tfn) is used.

  The function of the prediction unit 87 that predicts the value of the second demand power in the predetermined area N100 corresponds to the fourth prediction unit.

=== Operation of Prediction Device ===
Hereinafter, the operation of the prediction apparatus according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIGS. 11 and 12. FIG. 11 is a flowchart showing the operation of the prediction apparatus according to this embodiment. FIG. 12 is a diagram illustrating an example of a prediction result of the prediction device according to the present embodiment. FIG. 12 shows the predicted value PL of the second demand power in the predetermined area N100, for example, on the next day. The horizontal axis X1 indicates the time in one day of the next day. Ta1 on the horizontal axis X1 represents, for example, midnight, time Ta2 represents, for example, 7 am corresponding to the sunrise time, and time Ta3 represents, for example, 5 pm, corresponding to the sunset time. The vertical axis Y1 indicates the magnitude of the predicted value PL of demand power in the predetermined area N100.

  For example, a description will be given from the start of execution of a program for operating the prediction device 8 stored in the first area 851 and the control unit 88 starting the control operation of the prediction device 8. The prediction device 8 starts accepting a prediction request (step St11). The prediction request is a command for starting a prediction operation by the prediction device 8. The prediction request may be input to the prediction device 8 via the input unit 81, for example. After the prediction request is input, the prediction device 8 generates a prediction formula (for example, Formula 1) for each of the meshes N1 to N15. (Step St12). The prediction device 8 calculates predicted values of the first demand power (for example, predicted values PN1 to PN15 of the first demand power) in the meshes N1 to N15 based on the generated prediction formula (step St13). The prediction device 8 calculates the predicted value of the output power of each of the meshes N1 to N15 based on the future information Z5 and the like (step St14). The prediction device 8 calculates the predicted value of the second demand power (for example, the first demand power PL1 to PL15) in each of the meshes N1 to N15 based on the calculation result in step St13 and the calculation result in step St14 ( Step St15). The prediction device 8 calculates the predicted value PL of the second demand power in the predetermined area N100 based on the calculation result in step St15 (step St16). As described above, the prediction device 8 calculates the sum of the predicted values (for example, PL1 to PL15) of the second demand power of each mesh at each time (for example, times Tf1 to Tfn) at each time in the predetermined area N100. Calculated as the predicted value PL of the second demand power. The prediction device 8 outputs the calculation result at step St16 (step St17). For example, the prediction device 8 displays information indicating the calculation result on the display unit 83 or outputs the information from the output unit 82. Note that the prediction device 8 may output the calculation result in step St16 in a state in which the prediction device 8 is associated with the time of the day on the next day, for example, as shown in FIG.

[Second Embodiment]
=== Distribution system, prediction device ===
Hereinafter, with reference to FIG. 13, a power distribution system and a prediction device in the present embodiment will be described. FIG. 13 is a diagram showing a power distribution system in the present embodiment. In addition, about the structure similar to FIG. 1, the same code | symbol is attached | subjected and the description is abbreviate | omitted.

  The power distribution system 100A includes a prediction device 8A. Note that the prediction device 8A, the measurement devices M3, M4, M5, and the weather information device 73 correspond to a power prediction device.

  The prediction device 8A (FIG. 3) includes a storage unit 85A and a prediction formula generation unit 86A.

  The storage unit 85A has, for example, a second area 852A.

  Meteorological information Z23 (FIG. 6) is stored in the second area 852A. The weather information Z23 is information based on the weather signal S73 received by the transmission / reception unit 84.

  The prediction formula generation unit 86A generates past information Z24 (FIG. 6) based on the weather information Z23 and the like, and generates a prediction formula based on the past information Z24 and the like. That is, the prediction formula generation unit 86A, based on the estimation result of the weather information device 73 (estimation device), the coefficients p1 to pi, the coefficients a1 to ai, the coefficients b1 to bi, the coefficients d1 to di, the coefficients e1 to ei, coefficients f1 to fi, coefficients h1 to hi, and coefficients q1 to qi are calculated (determined) using, for example, multiple regression analysis.

  As described above, the prediction device 8 predicts the value of power (for example, the second demand power of the mesh N1) to be generated on the upstream side of the distributed power sources G3 to G5 in the distribution line L10. Loads R3 and R4 and distributed power sources G3 and G4 are connected to the distribution line L10. Electric power P311 and P411 are supplied to the loads R3 and R4, respectively. Electric power P312 and P412 are output from the distributed power sources G3 and G4, respectively. The prediction unit 87 calculates a predicted value of the first demand power of the mesh N1, for example, based on the prediction formula (Formula 1). In the prediction formula, the value of the first demand power of the mesh N1 at the time t and the mesh N1 of the mesh N1 at each of the times t-1, t-2 to ti, for example, in the past (previous) time zone from the time t. The correlation between the value of 1 demand power and the value indicating the weather information at each of the times t-1, t-2 to ti is shown. Further, the prediction unit 87 calculates a predicted value of the output power of the generator of the mesh N1, for example, based on the future information Z5. Further, the prediction unit 87 calculates the predicted value of the second demand power of the mesh N1 by subtracting the predicted value of the output power of the generator of the mesh N1 from the predicted value of the first demand power of the mesh N1 (FIG. 9). ). As described above, the prediction device 8 separately predicts the predicted value of the first demand power of the mesh N1 and the predicted value of the output power of the generator of the mesh N1, and then based on the prediction result, the mesh N1. The value of the second demand power is predicted. Therefore, when the prediction device 8 predicts the value of the second demand power of the mesh N1, the value of the second demand power of the mesh N1 is reflected on the prediction of the output power of the generator of the mesh N1 in the prediction. The prediction accuracy for predicting can be improved. Further, the prediction device 8 automatically operates, for example, based on the program stored in the first area 851. Therefore, the operator who predicts the value of the second demand power of the mesh N1 does not need to perform, for example, manual calculation for predicting the value of the second demand power of the mesh N1. Therefore, the work efficiency of the work for predicting the value of the second demand power of the mesh N1 by the worker can be improved.

  Further, in the expression 1, the value of the first demand power at the time t and the first demand power at the times (t−1), t−2 to ti in the past (previous) time time t, for example. Correlation with value is shown. Measuring devices M3 and M4 measure electric power P311 and P411, respectively. The prediction formula generation unit 86 calculates (determines) the coefficients p1 to pi based on the past information Z4 corresponding to the measurement results of the measuring devices M3 and M4. When predicting the value of the first demand power in the mesh N1, the measurement results of the measuring devices M3 and M4 can be reflected in the prediction. Therefore, the prediction device 8 can improve the prediction accuracy for predicting the value of the second demand power in the mesh N1.

  Moreover, in Formula 1, the value which shows the weather information in each of the value of the 1st demand electric power in the time t, and the time t-1, t-2 thru | or ti in the time zone before (before) the time t, for example. Further correlation is shown. The weather observation device 71 observes the weather on the mesh N1. The prediction formula generation unit 86, based on the past information Z4 according to the observation result of the weather observation device 71, coefficients a1 to ai, coefficients b1 to bi, coefficients d1 to di, coefficients e1 to ei, coefficients f1 to fi, coefficients h1 to hi and coefficients q1 to qi are calculated (determined). When predicting the value of the first demand power in the mesh N1, the observation result of the weather observation device 71 can be reflected in the prediction. Therefore, the prediction device 8 can improve the prediction accuracy for predicting the value of the second demand power value in the mesh N1.

  The weather information device 73 (FIG. 13) estimates the temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloud cover, atmospheric pressure, wind direction, wind speed, and solar radiation in the mesh N1. The prediction formula generation unit 86A, based on the past information Z24 according to the estimation result of the weather information device 73, the coefficients a1 to ai, coefficients b1 to bi, coefficients d1 to di, coefficients e1 to ei, coefficients f1 to f1 in Formula 1. fi, coefficients h1 to hi, and coefficients q1 to qi are calculated (determined). When predicting the value of the first demand power in the mesh N1, the estimation result of the weather information device 73 can be reflected in the prediction. Therefore, the prediction device 8A (FIG. 13) can improve the prediction accuracy for predicting the value of the second demand power in the mesh N1. Further, for example, in the power distribution system 100A, it is not necessary to provide an observation device for observing the weather in the mesh N1. Therefore, the cost for providing the observation device in the power distribution system 100A can be reduced. Therefore, the prediction device 8A can predict the value of the second demand power in the mesh N1 at a relatively low cost.

  The weather information Z3 includes information indicating the temperature of the mesh N1. When predicting the value of the first demand power in the mesh N1, information indicating the temperature of the mesh N1 can be reflected in the prediction. Therefore, for example, information indicating the temperature having a relatively strong correlation with the value of the first demand power can be reflected in the prediction of the value of the first demand power in the mesh N1. Therefore, the prediction accuracy for predicting the value of the second demand power in the mesh N1 in the prediction device 8 can be further improved.

  Further, the weather information Z3 includes information indicating the humidity of the mesh N1. When predicting the value of the first demand power in the mesh N1, information indicating the humidity of the mesh N1 can be reflected in the prediction. Therefore, for example, information indicating humidity having a relatively strong correlation with the value of the first demand power can be reflected in the prediction of the value of the first demand power in the mesh N1. Therefore, the prediction accuracy for predicting the value of the second demand power in the mesh N1 in the prediction device 8 can be further improved.

  The weather information Z3 includes information indicating the precipitation amount of the mesh N1. When predicting the value of the first demand power in the mesh N1, information indicating the precipitation amount of the mesh N1 can be reflected in the prediction. Therefore, for example, information indicating precipitation having a relatively strong correlation with the value of the first demand power can be reflected in the prediction of the value of the first demand power in the mesh N1. Therefore, the prediction accuracy for predicting the value of the second demand power in the mesh N1 in the prediction device 8 can be further improved.

  Further, the generators G3 to G5 are, for example, solar power generation devices. Therefore, the value of the output power from the photovoltaic power generator can be reflected in the prediction of the value of the second demand power in the mesh N1. Therefore, the prediction accuracy for predicting the value of the second demand power in the mesh N1 in the prediction device 8 can be further improved.

  The generators G3 to G5 are, for example, wind power generators. Therefore, the value of the output power from the wind turbine generator can be reflected in the prediction of the value of the second demand power in the mesh N1. Therefore, the prediction accuracy for predicting the value of the second demand power in the mesh N1 in the prediction device 8 can be further improved.

  The loads R3 and R4 are provided in the mesh N1, and the load R5 is provided in the mesh N2. The generators G3 and G4 are provided in the mesh N1, and the generator G5 is provided in the mesh N2. The prediction device 8 calculates a predicted value of the first demand power in each of the meshes N1 to N15. Further, the prediction device 8 calculates a predicted value of the output power of the generator in each of the meshes N1 to N15. Further, the prediction device 8 calculates a predicted value of the second demand power in each of the meshes N1 to N15. And the prediction apparatus 8 calculates the predicted value of the 2nd demand power in the predetermined area N100, respectively. Furthermore, the prediction device 8 calculates the sum of the predicted values of the second demand power in each of the meshes N1 to N15 as the predicted value of the second demand power in the predetermined area N100. Therefore, for example, the value of the first demand power and the weather information in each of the meshes N1 to N15 can be reflected in the prediction of the value of the second demand power in the predetermined area N100. Therefore, the prediction device 8 can improve the prediction accuracy for predicting the value of the second demand power in the predetermined area N100.

  The first and second embodiments are intended to facilitate understanding of the present invention and are not intended to limit the present invention. The present invention can be changed and improved without departing from the gist thereof, and the present invention includes equivalents thereof.

  In 2nd Embodiment, although the prediction formula production | generation part 86A produced | generated the past information Z24 based on the weather signal S73 output from the weather information apparatus 73 was demonstrated, it is not limited to this. For example, the weather observation apparatuses 71 and 72 in the first embodiment are provided for the power distribution system 100A (FIG. 13), and the prediction formula generation unit 86A is based on the information indicated in the observation signals S71 and S72. The information indicated in the weather signal S73 may be corrected. Then, based on the corrected information, the prediction formula generation unit 86A may generate the past information Z24.

8, 8A Prediction device 71, 72 Weather observation device 73 Weather information device 86, 86A Prediction formula generation unit 87 Prediction unit 100, 100A Distribution system 200 Substation 300, 400, 500 Consumer L10, L3, L4, L5 Distribution line M3 , M4, M5 Measuring devices N1 to N15 Mesh N100 Predetermined area

Claims (10)

On the upstream side of the distributed power source in the power line to which the power load to which the first power is supplied and the distributed power source that outputs the second power to supply power to the power load are connected A power prediction device for predicting a value of third power to be generated,
The value of the first power at a first time, the value of the first power at a second time prior to the first time, and the weather information of the position at which the power load at the second time is provided; A first prediction unit for predicting a value of the first power based on a correlation equation indicating the correlation of
A second prediction unit for predicting a value of the second power according to a predicted value of weather information at a position where the distributed power source is provided;
A third prediction unit that predicts a value of the third power according to a difference between a prediction result of the first prediction unit and a prediction result of the second prediction unit;
A power prediction apparatus comprising: The correlation equation is determined for each value of the first power in the first time, one or more values of the first power in the second time, and each value of the one or more first powers. Shows the correlation with the sum of products with the first constant,
A measuring device for measuring the first power;
The power prediction device according to claim 1, further comprising: a first determination unit that determines a value of the first constant based on a measurement result of the measurement device. The correlation formula is determined for each value indicating the value of the first power in the first time, a value indicating the one or more weather information in the second time, and a value indicating the one or more weather information. Further shows the correlation with the sum of products with the second constant,
An observation device for observing the weather at a position where the power load is provided;
The power prediction device according to claim 2, further comprising: a second determination unit that determines a value of the second constant based on an observation result of the observation device. The correlation formula is determined for each value indicating the value of the first power in the first time, a value indicating the one or more weather information in the second time, and a value indicating the one or more weather information. Further shows the correlation with the sum of products with the second constant,
An estimation device for estimating the weather at a position where the power load is provided;
The power prediction device according to claim 2, further comprising: a second determination unit that determines a value of the second constant based on an estimation result of the estimation device. 5. The power prediction apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the weather information includes information indicating an air temperature at a position where the power load is provided. 6. The power prediction apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the weather information includes information indicating humidity at a position where the power load is provided. The said weather information contains the information which shows the precipitation of the position in which the said electric power load is provided. The electric power prediction apparatus in any one of the Claims 1 thru | or 6 characterized by the above-mentioned. The electric power prediction apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the distributed power source is a photovoltaic power generation apparatus. The electric power prediction apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the distributed power source is a wind power generator. The power load is provided in each of a plurality of areas in a predetermined area,
The distributed power source is provided in each of the plurality of areas,
The first prediction unit predicts a value of the first power for each of the plurality of areas,
The second prediction unit predicts a value of the second power for each of the plurality of areas,
The third prediction unit predicts a value of the third power for each of the plurality of areas,
The fourth prediction unit for predicting the value of the third power in the predetermined area based on the sum of the prediction results of the third prediction unit. Power prediction device.

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