JP5207873B2 - Hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus, operation planning apparatus, and operation planning method - Google Patents

Description

The present invention relates to a hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus provided with a hot water supply section such as a CO ₂ heat pump water heater or an electric water heater, an operation planning apparatus and an operation planning method thereof.

A hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus is installed in a consumer, generates heat using electric power or the like, and stores the heat to cover the hot water supply load of the consumer. In particular, the CO ₂ heat pump water heater has high energy efficiency, which is the amount of heat stored when unit power is used, can store a large amount of heat with a small amount of power, and is expected to spread as an energy-saving device.

  Electricity charges used in hot water storage hot water supply devices vary greatly depending on the time of day, and in particular, the late-night charge is cheaper. Therefore, it is necessary to store as much heat as possible in the late-night charge zone in order to reduce the charge.

  In addition, a hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus generally has a smaller amount of heat that can be stored per hour than an instantaneous water heater. When the hot water supply load, which is the amount of heat used for hot water supply, is insufficient for the amount of heat stored in the midnight fee zone, hot water runs out, so it is necessary to store heat so that there is no hot water.

  Therefore, there is a demand for a system that predicts the future hot water supply load and calculates what operation can store heat without running out of the hot water load.

  An example of such a system is shown in Patent Document 1.

In invention of patent document 1, based on the past use record of the hot water supply load by a consumer, the hot water supply amount which is insufficient by learning control is predicted, and the hot water amount for the shortage is boiled and stored. In other words, the optimum hot water supply load to be supplied to the customer in the future is predicted from the results of many hot water supply loads supplied to the customer in the past. With this process, it is possible to perform an operation with a low possibility of hot water shortage.
JP 2007-285607 A

  However, according to the conventional technique using the learning control as described above, there is a problem that the amount of calculation is large and a future hot water supply load cannot be predicted unless past usage records are accumulated.

  That is, the prediction of the future hot water supply load is calculated from the results of many hot water supply loads supplied to the customer in the past. That is, in order to perform prediction for one day, it is necessary to calculate and predict the amount of hot water supply for 24 hours from many past results. And it is necessary to perform the same calculation repeatedly every day, and the amount of calculation increases. In addition, in order to predict the future hot water supply load, past use results of the hot water supply amount in the consumer are required. For this reason, the future hot water supply load cannot be predicted without the past usage record.

  Therefore, the present invention has been made to solve the above-described problems, and even with a small amount of calculation, there is no accumulation of past usage records of the customer, and the hot water can be adjusted to the future load of the customer. It is an object of the present invention to provide a hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus, an operation planning apparatus, and an operation planning method capable of performing an operation that is unlikely to occur.

  In order to achieve the above object, a hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus according to the present invention is a hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus that stores boiled hot water in a hot water storage tank and supplies hot water to a consumer, and is different from the consumer. The hot water supply load at each time such that the integrated value of the daily hot water supply load is a predetermined integrated value calculated from the actual load that is the hot water supply load at each time when the hot water is supplied Is a simulated load, hot water is stored in the hot water storage tank by a predetermined operation method, hot water is supplied according to the simulated load, the state where the hot water to be supplied is insufficient, running out of water, The probability of occurrence of hot water shortage for each simulated integrated load is a simulated operation result, and the hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus is the smallest simulated integrated load at which the operation method and the simulated operation result are equal to or greater than a predetermined threshold. Is associated with the lower limit integrated load. By referring to the driving method selection table generating unit that generates the driving method selection table and the generated driving method selection table, from the actual value of the integrated value of the hot water supply load when hot water is supplied to the consumer, An operation method acquisition unit for acquiring an operation method for supplying hot water to the consumer on a prediction date to be predicted, and storing hot water in the hot water storage tank for supplying hot water to the consumer according to the acquired operation method In addition, an operation command unit that gives a boiling command to boil hot water, and a hot water supply unit that includes the hot water storage tank, stores heat in the hot water storage tank in accordance with the boiling command, and supplies hot water to the customer in accordance with instructions from the customer With.

  According to this configuration, once the driving method selection table is generated, the generated driving method selection table can be used repeatedly thereafter. For this reason, it is not necessary to repeat many calculations every day, and the calculation amount is reduced. Further, the probability of hot water shortage occurring in a predetermined operation method is calculated from the past results of a customer different from the customer who wants to supply hot water, and the operation method selection table is generated. For this reason, even if there is no accumulation of past usage records of consumers who want to supply hot water, an optimal operation method can be acquired by selecting an operation method with a low probability of hot water shortage. As described above, it is possible to perform an operation with a low calculation amount and a low possibility of hot water shortage without accumulation of past usage records of consumers.

  In addition, the present invention can be realized not only as such a hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus, but also an operation planning apparatus that determines an optimal operation method of the apparatus, and an operation method selection that generates a table for selecting the optimal operation method. It can be realized as a method in which a table generating device or processing means constituting these devices is used as a step. Furthermore, the present invention can be realized as a program for causing a computer to execute these steps, or can be realized as a computer-readable recording medium such as a CD-ROM on which the program is recorded, or information, data, or a signal indicating the program. It can also be realized. These programs, information, data, and signals may be distributed via a communication network such as the Internet.

  The present invention relates to a hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus that can perform an operation with a small calculation amount and a low possibility of hot water shortage without accumulating past usage records of a customer, an operation planning apparatus, and an operation plan A method can be provided.

  Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings.

  FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of a hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus 10 according to the present embodiment.

  A hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus 10 in the figure is an apparatus for supplying hot water to a consumer, and includes an operation planning apparatus 100 and a hot water supply section 200.

  The operation planning apparatus 100 is an apparatus that determines an optimum operation method of the hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus 10 in order to supply a required amount of hot water to the consumer. In addition, the operation planning apparatus 100 issues an operation command to the hot water supply unit 200 so as to supply hot water to the customer according to the determined operation method.

  The hot water supply unit 200 is a device that boils the supplied water into hot water in accordance with an operation command from the operation planning device 100 and supplies hot water to a consumer. The hot water supply unit 200 includes a hot water storage tank 201 and a heat pump 202.

  The hot water storage tank 201 is supplied with water, stores hot water boiled by the heat pump 202, and supplies hot water to consumers. Here, a pipe 203 and a pipe 204 are provided below the hot water storage tank 201, and a pipe 205 and a pipe 206 are provided above the hot water storage tank 201.

  That is, the hot water storage tank 201 acquires water from the lower pipe 203 of the hot water storage tank 201 and supplies water to the heat pump 202 from the lower pipe 204. And the hot water storage tank 201 acquires the hot water boiled up by the heat pump 202 from the piping 205 of the upper part of the hot water storage tank 201, and supplies hot water from the upper piping 206 to a hot water tap of a consumer.

  The heat pump 202 boils the water acquired from the hot water storage tank 201 in accordance with the operation command acquired from the operation planning device 100.

  FIG. 2 is a block diagram illustrating a hardware configuration of the operation planning apparatus 100 according to the present embodiment.

  The operation planning device 100 is a computer that performs processing such as determining an optimum operation method of the hot water storage type hot water supply device 10 in order to supply hot water to a consumer. The operation planning apparatus 100 includes a calculation control unit 101, a display unit 102, an input unit 103, a memory unit 104, a program storage unit 105, and a database unit 107.

  The arithmetic control unit 101 is a CPU (Central Processing Unit), a numerical processor, or the like, and loads and executes a necessary program from the program storage unit 105 to the memory unit 104 in accordance with an instruction from an operator or the like. Each component 102-107 is controlled.

  The display unit 102 is a CRT (Cathode-Ray Tube), an LCD (Liquid Crystal Display), or the like, and the input unit 103 is a button, a touch panel, or the like, and these are controlled by the arithmetic control unit 101 under the operation planning apparatus 100. And the operator interacts with each other.

  The program storage unit 105 is a nonvolatile memory or the like that stores various programs that realize the functions of the operation planning apparatus 100.

  The database unit 107 is a non-volatile memory or the like that stores data or the like used for operation method determination processing by the operation planning apparatus 100.

  FIG. 3 is a diagram for explaining the database unit 107 and the program storage unit 105 in detail.

  The database unit 107 stores actual load data 107a, simulated load data 107b, operation method data 107c, simulated operation result data 107d, an operation method selection table 107e, and the like.

  4 to 8 are diagrams showing examples of the actual load data 107a, the simulated load data 107b, the operation method data 107c, the simulated operation result data 107d, and the operation method selection table 107e, respectively.

  FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an example of the actual load data 107a.

  The actual load data 107a is a collection of information indicating a past hot water supply performance at another customer different from the customer to be supplied with hot water, and is data created in advance. Here, a consumer having a similar hot water supply performance to that of the hot water supplier is selected as the other consumer. The actual load data 107a includes “date”, “time”, “actual water temperature”, “actual accumulated load”, “actual load”, and the like.

  “Date” and “Time” are the date of one year and the time on that date. Specifically, “date” is a date in a day unit from January 1 to December 31, and “time” is an hour unit from 23:00 to 22:00 on the next day. It is time at. In the present embodiment, the period from 23:00 on the current day to 23:00 on the next day is regarded as one day.

  “Actual water temperature” is an actual value of the temperature of water supplied to the hot water storage tanks of other customers on “date”. Specifically, “actual water temperature” is an average value of actual values of the water temperature for one day. The “actual water temperature” may be the lowest daily temperature among the actual values of the water temperature, or may be the actual value of the water temperature at a predetermined time.

  The “actual accumulated load” is the actual value of the hot water supply load in units of one day when hot water is supplied to other customers on the “date”. Here, the hot water supply load refers to a load applied to the hot water supply unit 200 when hot water is supplied from the hot water supply unit 200 of the hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus 10 to the consumer.

  “Actual load” is an actual value of the hot water supply load in units of one hour when hot water is supplied to other customers at “date” and “time”.

  FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating an example of the simulated load data 107b.

  The simulated load data 107b is a collection of information that simulates a hot water supply load when hot water is supplied to a consumer, and is created by a simulated load calculation unit 105b described later. Specifically, the simulated load data 107b is intermediate data for performing a simulated operation calculated from the actual load data 107a. The simulated load data 107b includes “date”, “time”, “simulated water temperature”, “simulated integrated load”, “simulated load”, and the like.

  “Date” is a date extracted as a day indicating a simulated load in one year.

  “Time” is the time in “date”. Specifically, the “time” is a time in an hour unit from 23:00 for each date to 22:00 on the next day. In the present embodiment, the period from 23:00 on the current day to 23:00 on the next day is regarded as one day.

  The “simulated water temperature” is a simulated value of the temperature of water supplied to the customer's hot water storage tank on the “date”. Specifically, the “simulated water temperature” is a predetermined value such as 0 to 10 ° C. or 10 to 20 ° C.

  The “simulated integrated load” is a simulated value of the daily hot water supply load when hot water is supplied to the customer on “date”.

  The “simulated load” is a simulated value of an hourly hot water supply load when hot water is supplied to a customer at “date” and “time”.

  FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating an example of the driving method data 107c.

  The operation method data 107c is a collection of information on operation methods for supplying hot water to consumers, and is data created in advance. That is, the operation method data 107c is a collection of information for operating in an operation method in which a predetermined amount of hot water is stored in the hot water storage tank 201 at a predetermined temperature at a predetermined time of the day. Specifically, the operation method data 107c includes, for each time zone, a boiling temperature that is the temperature of hot water that is boiled when entering the time zone, and a boiling amount that is the amount of hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 201 at the boiling temperature. Consists of quantity and so on.

  More specifically, the operation method data 107c includes "operation method", "boiling temperature", "midnight time zone heating amount", "daytime time zone heating amount", and "night time zone heating amount". Etc.

  “Driving method” is the name of the driving method. Specifically, the “driving method” is a number from 1 to 10.

  The “boiling temperature” is a temperature at which water in the hot water storage tank 201 of the hot water supply unit 200 is heated to hot water.

  The “late-time boiling amount” is the amount of hot water to be heated in the late-night time zone. The midnight time zone is, for example, a time zone from 23:00 to 7:00 on the next day when the electricity bill is inexpensive. In this case, if the “late-time boiling amount” is 200 L, 200 L of hot water is boiled from 23:00 to 7:00 on the next day.

  The “daytime time zone boiling amount” and “night time zone boiling amount” are the amounts of hot water heated during the daytime and nighttime hours. The boiling method is the same as the “late-hour boiling amount”.

  Here, “boiling temperature”, “midnight time zone heating amount”, “daytime zone heating amount”, and “nighttime zone heating amount” all increase as the “operation method” number increases. Is set to In other words, the “driving method” is in the order of boiling more hot water as the value increases.

  FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating an example of the simulated operation result data 107d.

  The simulated operation result data 107d is a collection of “simulated operation results” which is information indicating the probability of running out of hot water, and is created by a simulated operation result calculation unit 105c described later. Specifically, the simulated operation result data 107d is stored in the hot water storage tank 201 and supplied with hot water by the operation method of the “operation method” with respect to the “simulated integrated load” for each “simulated water temperature”. In this case, it is a collection of “simulated operation results”, which is the probability of occurrence of hot water shortage in which hot water is insufficient.

  “Simulated water temperature” and “simulated accumulated load” are “simulated water temperature” and “simulated accumulated load” of the simulated load data 107b.

  “Operation method” is a name indicating the operation method of the operation method data 107c.

  FIG. 8 is a diagram illustrating an example of the driving method selection table 107e.

  The driving method selection table 107e is a collection of “lower limit integrated load” that is information for acquiring the driving method, and is generated by the driving method selection table generation unit 105d described later. Here, the “lower limit integrated load” is “simulated water temperature” when “hot water” is stored in the hot water storage tank 201 and supplied by the operation method “operation method” for each “simulated water temperature”. It is the smallest “simulated integrated load” in which the “operation result” is equal to or greater than a predetermined threshold.

  “Simulated water temperature” and “simulated accumulated load” are “simulated water temperature” and “simulated accumulated load” of the simulated load data 107b.

  “Operation method” is a name indicating the operation method of the operation method data 107c.

  Returning to FIG. 3, the program stored in the program storage unit 105 is a program for determining an optimal operation method of the hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus 10, and is functionally (when executed by the arithmetic control unit 101. As a functioning processing unit), an actual load extraction unit 105a, a simulated load calculation unit 105b, a simulated operation result calculation unit 105c, an operation method selection table generation unit 105d, a predicted load calculation unit 105e, and a predicted water temperature calculation unit 105f And an operation method acquisition unit 105g and an operation command unit 105h.

  The actual load extraction unit 105a extracts data for creating the simulated load data 107b shown in FIG. 5 from the actual load data 107a shown in FIG. Specifically, the actual load extraction unit 105a extracts, from the actual load data 107a, the “actual load” within the predetermined range at the “real water temperature” within the predetermined range. More specifically, the actual load extraction unit 105a is a value within a first range determined from the “simulated water temperature” in which the “actual water temperature” is a predetermined water temperature from the actual load data 107a, and “Actual load”, which is a value within a second range determined from “simulated accumulated load”, which is a predetermined value, is extracted in units of one day.

  The simulated load calculation unit 105b calculates data for creating simulated load data 107b for performing a simulated operation from the data extracted by the actual load extraction unit 105a. Specifically, the simulated load calculation unit 105b calculates the “simulated load” at the “simulated water temperature” from the “real load” at the “actual water temperature” on the date extracted by the actual load extraction unit 105a. More specifically, the simulated load calculation unit 105b calculates the “simulated load” from the “real load” so that the “real integrated load” has the same value as the “simulated integrated load”.

  That is, the simulated load calculation unit 105b extracts each time when the value obtained by dividing the “simulated integrated load” by the “real integrated load” in the “real load” extracted by the actual load extraction unit 105a is set as the load magnification. The “simulated load” at each time is calculated in units of one day by multiplying the “actual load” in FIG.

  Then, the simulated load calculation unit 105b calculates “date” and “time” as calculation results as “date”, “time”, “simulated water temperature”, “simulated integrated load”, and “simulated load” of the simulated load data 107b. “Simulated water temperature”, “Simulated integrated load”, and “Simulated load” are written to create simulated load data 107b.

  For each “simulated water temperature”, the simulated operation result calculation unit 105c calculates “simulated operation result” that is the probability of hot water shortage occurring for each “simulated integrated load”. Here, the out of hot water is a state in which hot water is stored in the hot water storage tank according to a predetermined “operation method” and hot water is supplied according to the “simulated load”, so that hot water to be supplied is insufficient. Say. In addition, the probability that a hot water break will occur refers to the ratio of the number of days when there is a shortage of hot water to be supplied to the number of days for which the “simulated load” is calculated.

  In the present embodiment, the simulated operation result calculation unit 105c calculates the “simulated load” for the “simulated integrated load” at the “simulated water temperature” from the simulated load data 107b, and the simulated operation from the operation method data 107c shown in FIG. Acquire the "driving method" driving method when performing. Then, the simulated driving result calculation unit 105c writes the calculated “driving simulation result” as the “driving simulation result” of the simulated driving result data 107d shown in FIG. 7, and creates simulated driving result data 107d.

  The driving method selection table generating unit 105d generates the driving method selection table 107e shown in FIG. 8 from the simulated driving result data 107d. In the present embodiment, first, the driving method selection table generation unit 105d acquires the “simulated driving result” from the simulated driving result data 107d. Then, the operation method selection table generation unit 105d selects the “lower limit integrated load” that is the smallest “simulated integrated load” at which the “simulated operation result” for each “operation method” at the “simulated water temperature” is equal to or greater than a predetermined threshold. Is calculated, and the driving method selection table 107e is generated.

  The predicted load calculation unit 105e calculates the integrated value of the daily hot water supply load on the predicted date of the prediction target from the actual value of the integrated value of the daily hot water load when the hot water is supplied to the customer in a predetermined period. A predicted integrated load that is a predicted value of is calculated.

  The predicted water temperature calculation unit 105f calculates a predicted water temperature that is a predicted value of the water temperature on the prediction date of the prediction target from the actual value of the water temperature of the water supplied to the hot water storage tank 201 of the consumer in a predetermined period. .

  The driving method acquisition unit 105g refers to the driving method selection table 107e generated for the first time, and acquires the driving method for supplying hot water to the customer on the prediction date of the prediction target from the driving performance at the customer. In the present embodiment, first, the operation method acquisition unit 105g acquires the predicted integrated load from the predicted load calculation unit 105e, and acquires the predicted water temperature from the predicted water temperature calculation unit 105f. Then, the operation method acquisition unit 105g refers to the “operation method”, “simulated water temperature”, and “lower limit integrated load” in the operation method selection table 107e so that the “predicted water temperature” is determined from the “simulated water temperature”. When the value is within the range, the “Lower limit integrated load” at the “Simulated water temperature” is equal to or greater than the “Predicted integrated load”, and the “Operating method” at the “Lower limit integrated load” is the minimum value. Is acquired as the “driving method” on the prediction date of the prediction target.

  The operation command unit 105 h instructs the hot water supply unit 200 to operate. Specifically, the operation command unit 105h determines the temperature at which the heat pump 202 boils hot water according to the “operation method” acquired by the operation method acquisition unit 105g from the amount and temperature of hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 201. The hot water supply unit 200 is instructed to start or stop the command and the heating operation.

  Hereinafter, an example of the operation in the hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus 10 will be described using a flowchart.

  As a premise, the hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus 10 is immediately after being installed, and the operation method selection table 107e is not created. The predicted load calculation unit 105e and the predicted water temperature calculation unit 105f store the hot water supply load and the water temperature for the past seven days before the installation of the customer in which the hot water storage type hot water supply device 10 is installed. Further, in the present embodiment, 23:00 is regarded as the start of the day, and at the same time the time becomes 23:00, operation is performed in the operation method for one day from 23:00 on the current day to 23:00 on the next day.

  FIGS. 9-11 is a flowchart which shows an example of operation | movement of the hot water storage type hot-water supply apparatus 10 in this Embodiment.

  As shown in FIG. 9, first, at the first 23 hours after the hot water storage type hot water supply device 10 is installed, the operation planning device 100 of the hot water storage type hot water supply device 10 issues an instruction to start the operation planning process.

  Next, the operation planning apparatus 100 determines whether or not the operation method selection table 107e shown in FIG. 8 has been generated (S102). Then, the operation planning apparatus 100 determines that the operation method selection table 107e has not been generated since the operation method selection table 107e has not been generated if the hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus 10 has just been installed (NO in S102). ).

  Next, if the operation planning device 100 determines that the operation method selection table 107e has not been generated, the operation planning device 100 generates the operation method selection table 107e (S104).

  Further, at 23:00 after the next day, it is determined that the driving method selection table 107e has been generated (YES in S102). In this case, the process for generating the driving method selection table 107e is not performed.

  Next, the predicted load calculation unit 105e predicts the hot water supply load on the next day (S106). Specifically, the predicted load calculation unit 105e calculates the daily value on the predicted date of the prediction target from the actual value of the integrated value of the hot water load for one day when the hot water is supplied to the customer in a predetermined period. A predicted integrated load that is a predicted value of the integrated value of the hot water supply load is calculated.

  In the present embodiment, first, the predicted load calculation unit 105e acquires the hot water supply load of the consumer measured by the hot water storage tank 201 shown in FIG. Then, the predicted load calculation unit 105e stores the daily integrated value of the hot water supply load acquired from the hot water supply unit 200. Next, the predicted load calculation unit 105e calculates the average and standard deviation of the history of 7 days of the stored daily hot water load value for the predetermined period as 7 days, and calculates the predicted integrated load for the next day. It is calculated by the following formula 1.

  Predicted integrated load = (average of history for 7 days) + 3 × (standard deviation of history for 7 days) (Formula 1)

  The predicted integrated load calculated by Equation 1 means the upper limit value of the daily integrated value of the hot water supply load that is predicted to occur.

  Next, the predicted water temperature calculation unit 105f predicts the water temperature of the next day (S108). Specifically, the predicted water temperature calculation unit 105f is a predicted value of the water temperature on the prediction date of the prediction target from the actual value of the water temperature of the water supplied to the hot water storage tank 201 of the customer in a predetermined period. Calculate the predicted water temperature.

  The predicted water temperature calculation unit 105 f stores the lowest daily temperature of the water temperature acquired from the hot water supply unit 200. Next, the predicted water temperature calculation part 105f calculates the average of the log | history for 7 days of the memorize | stored water temperature by making a predetermined period into 7 days, Furthermore, 0-10 degreeC and 10-20 degreeC to which the value belongs Any one of 20 to 30 ° C. and 30 ° C. or higher is calculated and set as the predicted water temperature.

  Next, the driving method acquisition unit 105g acquires the driving method of the next day (S110). First, the driving method acquisition unit 105g acquires the driving method selection table 107e from the driving method selection table generation unit 105d, acquires the predicted integrated load from the predicted load calculation unit 105e, and acquires the predicted water temperature from the predicted water temperature calculation unit 105f. . Next, the operation method acquisition unit 105g refers to the “operation method”, “simulated water temperature”, and “lower limit integrated load” in the operation method selection table 107e, and from the acquired predicted water temperature and the predicted integrated load, Select the “driving method” with the smallest value among the driving methods that are unlikely to occur.

  For example, when the acquired predicted water temperature is 5 ° C. and the predicted integrated load is 9500 kcal, the operation method acquisition unit 105g has the “simulated water temperature” in the operation method selection table 107e shown in FIG. The “driving method” at the “lower limit integrated load” that is the minimum value of the “lower limit integrated load” that is 9500 kcal or more of the predicted integrated load is acquired. In other words, the operation method acquisition unit 105g has a low possibility of running out of hot water if the “lower limit integrated load” is 9500 kcal or more, so the lowest “lower limit integrated load” is 10000 kcal. The “driving method” 2 that is the “driving method” is acquired.

  As described above, the operation planning apparatus 100 generates the operation method selection table 107e, which is a table that defines the “operation method” that is unlikely to run out of hot water with respect to the hot water supply load, and is a predicted future hot water supply load. A predicted integrated load and a predicted water temperature that is a future water temperature are calculated, and a future “operation method” is acquired and determined.

  With the above processing, the operation planning apparatus 100 ends the operation planning process.

  Then, at a time other than 23:00, the operation command unit 105h issues an operation command to the hot water supply unit 200 (S112). The operation command unit 105 h acquires the “operation method” from the operation method acquisition unit 105 g and acquires the current amount of hot water and the current temperature from the hot water supply unit 200. Then, when the current time falls within the time zone set in the “driving method”, the driving command unit 105h determines from the “boiling temperature” and the “boiling amount” set in the “driving method”. Then, a boiling operation command is issued until hot water having the same temperature as the “boiling temperature” stored in the hot water storage tank 201 reaches an amount equal to the “boiling amount”. Here, the boiling operation command is to perform a temperature command for boiling water and a command to start or stop the boiling operation to the hot water supply unit 200.

  And the hot water supply part 200 heats up based on the driving | operation command by the driving | operation commanding part 105h, and supplies hot water to a consumer (S114). The hot water supply unit 200 measures the hot water supply load of the consumer and the water temperature supplied to the hot water storage tank 201.

  Next, details of the process (S104) in which the driving method selection table 107e is generated will be described.

  FIG. 10 is a flowchart showing details of processing for generating the driving method selection table 107e.

  First, the following processing is repeated for each of all “simulated water temperatures” and for each of all “simulated integrated loads” (loop 1: S202, loop 2: S204). In the initial state, the “simulated water temperature” is set to 0 to 10 ° C., and the “simulated integrated load” is set to 5000 kcal.

  The driving method selection table generation unit 105d sets the “driving method” of the driving method data 107c shown in FIG. 6 to an initial value (S206). The “driving method” is a value from 1 to 10. The initial value of “driving method” is 1. In this case, “1” is set as the “driving method”.

  Next, the actual load extraction unit 105a and the simulated load calculation unit 105b create simulated load data 107b shown in FIG. 5 (S208).

  Then, the following processing is repeated for each of all the “driving methods” (loop 3: S210).

  The simulated operation result calculation unit 105c calculates “simulated operation result” (S212). First, the simulated driving result calculation unit 105c acquires “driving method” from the driving method data 107c. In this case, “1” is acquired as the “driving method”.

  Next, the simulated operation result calculation unit 105c performs an hourly unit from 23:00 on the first day to 22:00 on the last day in the "simulated water temperature" and "simulated integrated load" of the created simulated load data 107b. For the “simulated load”, an operation simulation is performed assuming that the operation is performed by “operation method” 1 every day. Then, as a result of the operation simulation, the simulated operation result calculation unit 105c calculates how many days out of the number of days of the “simulated load” for which the operation simulation has been performed.

  FIG. 12 is a diagram illustrating a case where hot water runs out as a result of the operation simulation.

  As shown in the figure, the simulated operation result calculation unit 105c performs an operation simulation assuming that the “simulation load” set in the simulated load data 107b is operated, for example, by the “operation method” 1.

  Here, the operation method 1 shown in the figure shows a one-day change in hot water supply load stored in the hot water storage tank 201 when the operation method 1 is operated. In addition, the simulated load indicates a daily change over time of the “simulated load” when the “simulated integrated load” is 5000 kcal. In the figure, a “simulated load”, which is a hot water supply load every hour, is indicated by a curve.

  The amount of hot water stored in the solid line indicates the daily change over time of the load amount corresponding to the amount of hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 201. That is, the hot water storage amount is a daily load amount when hot water corresponding to the simulated load is supplied from the hot water supply amount stored in the hot water storage tank 201 in the operation method 1. Specifically, for example, the amount of hot water stored at 12 o'clock is from the value at 12 o'clock of the load amount corresponding to the hot water supply amount shown by the broken line of the operation method 1 to from 23:00 to 12:00 of the simulated load shown by the broken line. This is a value obtained by subtracting the integrated value of the load amount.

  And the time (time of AB in a figure) when the amount of hot water storage becomes a negative value is the time when hot water outage occurred. And the day with the time when a hot water outage occurred is the day when the hot water has run out. In other words, the day when the hot water has run out is the day when there is a shortage of hot water to be supplied when the “simulation load” is used for the “simulation load” and the “operation method” is used to supply hot water. I mean.

  The “simulated operation result” is calculated by the following expression 2 using the result of the days when the hot water runs out. That is, the “simulated operation result” indicates the probability that the hot water runs out in the “driving method” among the “simulated loads” on which the driving simulation is performed.

  “Simulated operation result” = (days of hot water run out) / (days of “simulated load”) * 100 (Formula 2)

  Here, since the “simulated integrated load” is set to 5000 kcal and the “simulated water temperature” is set to 0 to 10 ° C. in the initial state, first, the “simulated integrated load” is 5000 kcal and the “simulated water temperature” is 0 to 10 ° C. For the case, a “simulated operation result” is calculated. In this case, if the hot water shortage does not occur on all days of the “simulated load”, the “simulated operation result” becomes zero.

  Returning to FIG. 10, the simulated operation result calculation unit 105c sets “simulated operation result” in the simulated operation result data 107d shown in FIG. 7 (S214).

  The simulated operation result data 107d is divided into four tables of 0 to 10 ° C., 10 to 20 ° C., 20 to 30 ° C., and 30 ° C. or more according to the water temperature. There is “simulated integrated load” on the horizontal axis, and “simulated operation result” is written in a place where “driving method” and “simulated load amount” correspond. The “driving method” is from 1 to 10 in increments of 1, and the “simulated integrated load” is from 1000 kcal to 40000 kcal. In this case, since the “simulated water temperature” is 0 to 10 ° C., the “simulated integrated load” is 5000 kcal, and the “driving method” is 1, “0” of the “simulated operation result” is written in the corresponding portion of the simulated operation result data 107d. As shown in FIG.

  Then, the process of loop 3 (S210 to S216) is repeated until all “driving methods” are completed. For example, after the “driving method” is 1, 2 is selected and the process of loop 3 (S210 to S216) is performed.

  Next, when all the “driving methods” are completed, the processing of loop 2 (S204 to S218) is repeated until all the “simulated integrated loads” are completed. For example, after the “simulated cumulative load” is 5000 kcal, 6000 kcal is selected, and the process of loop 2 (S204 to S218) is performed.

  Next, when all the “simulated integrated loads” are completed, the processing of loop 1 (S202 to S220) is repeated until all the “simulated water temperatures” are completed. For example, after the “simulated water temperature” is 0 to 10 ° C., 10 to 20 ° C. is selected, and the process of loop 1 (S202 to S220) is performed.

  When all the “simulated water temperatures” are completed, all “simulated operation results” are set in the simulated operation result data 107d, and the simulated operation result data 107d is created.

  Next, the driving method selection table generating unit 105d generates the driving method selection table 107e shown in FIG. 8 (S222).

  In other words, the operation method selection table generation unit 105d has the “lower limit integrated load” that is the smallest “simulated integrated load” at which the “simulated operation result” for each “operation method” at the “simulated water temperature” is equal to or greater than a predetermined threshold. Is calculated, and the driving method selection table 107e is generated.

  Specifically, the operation method selection table generation unit 105d examines the “simulation water temperature” in the simulation operation result data 107d, and checks the “simulation integrated load” value of each “operation method” from the smallest value. Select “simulated integrated load” that results in “simulated operation result” of 5 or more. The selected “simulated integrated load” means a “simulated integrated load” in which the probability of a day when hot water runs out in the “operation method” is 5% or more. In this case, the predetermined threshold is 5%, and the selected “simulated integrated load” is the “lower limit integrated load”. Next, the driving method selection table generation unit 105d writes this “lower limit integrated load” in the corresponding portion of the driving method selection table 107e.

  The operation method selection table 107e has “operation method” on the vertical axis and “simulated water temperature” on the horizontal axis. That is, the operation method selection table 107e means the upper limit of the hot water supply load at which each “simulation water temperature” has a low possibility of hot water shortage occurring in each “operation method”. For example, in the “simulated water temperature” 0 to 10 ° C. of the operation method selection table 107e shown in FIG. 8, if the daily hot water supply load is less than 8000 kcal, there is a low possibility that hot water will run out in the “operation method” 1. become.

  In this way, the operation method selection table generation unit 105d generates the operation method selection table 107e for all “operation methods” and “simulated water temperatures”.

  Next, details of the process (S208) for creating the simulated load data 107b will be described.

  FIG. 11 is a flowchart showing details of the process for creating the simulated load data 107b.

  The actual load extraction unit 105a determines from the actual load data 107a that the “actual water temperature” is a value within a first range determined from the “simulated water temperature”, which is a predetermined water temperature, and the “actual accumulated load” is The “actual load” that is a value within a second range determined from the “simulated integrated load” that is a predetermined value is extracted in units of one day.

  Specifically, the actual load extraction unit 105a extracts the coincidence date between the “simulated water temperature” and the “actual water temperature” in the actual load data 107a shown in FIG. 4 (S302). Here, the “simulated water temperature” is 0 to 10 ° C. in the initial state, and the actual load extraction unit 105a acquires the value. Further, the actual load data 107a is data created in advance, and “actual accumulated load” that is a daily accumulated value of hot water supply load for other customers for one year and “actual water temperature” that is water temperature. An “actual load” that is a hot water supply load in units of one hour is set in advance. Next, the actual load extraction unit 105a extracts the day when the “simulated water temperature” and the “actual water temperature” match as the water temperature matching day. In this case, since the “simulated water temperature” is 0 to 10 ° C., the day when the “actual water temperature” is 0 ° C. or more and less than 10 ° C. is extracted as the water temperature matching day. That is, the value within the first range determined from the “simulated water temperature” is a value within the range of the “simulated water temperature”, specifically, for example, 0 to 10 ° C.

  Next, the actual load extraction unit 105a extracts similar dates between the “simulated integrated load” and the “real integrated load” (S304). Here, the “simulated integrated load” is 5000 kcal in the initial state, and the “simulated integrated load” is less than 1.5 times the “simulated integrated load” from the “actual integrated load” on the day of the water temperature matching date. ”Is extracted as a cumulative load matching day. In this case, since the “simulated integrated load” is 5000 kcal, the day when the “actual integrated load” on the day that is the water temperature matching date is 7500 kcal or less and 2500 kcal or more is extracted as the integrated load matching date. That is, the value within the second range determined from the “simulated cumulative load” is a value within the range of 0.5 to 1.5 times the “simulated cumulative load”. Specifically, for example, 2500 ~ 7500 kcal.

  Next, the simulated load calculation unit 105b adjusts the “actual load” so that the “simulated integrated load” and the “real integrated load” coincide with each other, and calculates the “simulated load” (S306).

  13A and 13B are diagrams illustrating a method in which the simulated load calculation unit 105b calculates “simulated load”.

  As shown in FIG. 13A, the solid line actual load shows the daily change of the “real load” with the “real integrated load” of 3000 kcal. Also, the simulated load shown by the broken line indicates the daily change of the “simulated load” with “simulated integrated load” of 5000 kcal. In addition, although the actual load and the simulated load are hot water supply loads every hour, both the actual load and the simulated load are indicated by curves in FIG.

  Here, the simulated load is an increase in the actual load as a whole. That is, the simulated load calculation unit 105b increases the “actual load” with the “actual accumulated load” of 3000 kcal as a whole, and calculates the “simulated load” with the “simulated accumulated load” of 5000 kcal.

  Further, as shown in FIG. 13B, the actual load indicated by a solid line shows the daily change of the “actual load” with “actual accumulated load” of 7000 kcal. Also, the simulated load shown by the broken line indicates the daily change of the “simulated load” with “simulated integrated load” of 5000 kcal. In addition, although the actual load and the simulated load are hot water supply loads every hour, both the actual load and the simulated load are indicated by curves in FIG.

  Here, the simulated load is a reduction in the actual load as a whole. That is, the simulated load calculation unit 105b calculates the “simulated load” having the “simulated accumulated load” of 5000 kcal by reducing the “actual accumulated load” of 7000 kcal as a whole.

  Specifically, the simulated load calculation unit 105b calculates the value of each time of “actual load” that is an hourly hot water supply load for each day that is an integrated load coincidence date by the following Expression 3. Multiply the load magnification to calculate the “simulated load”.

  Load magnification = ("simulated total load" / "actual total load") (Formula 3)

  When the load at each time of “simulated load” calculated by this process is added, it matches the simulated integrated load. The simulated load calculation unit 105b performs this process for all the integrated load coincidence dates, so that the "simulated load" is the hot water supply on the day when the daily integrated value of the hot water supply load at each time coincides with the "simulated integrated load". Calculate only the load. The “simulated integrated load” that is the daily integrated value of each day matches, but the “simulated load” that is the hot water supply load at each time is calculated from the “actual load” on different days, and thus differs. ing.

  In this way, the simulated load calculation unit 105b calculates the “date”, “date”, “time”, “simulated water temperature”, “simulated integrated load”, and “simulated load” of the simulated load data 107b as the calculation results. Write “time”, “simulated water temperature”, “simulated accumulated load” and “simulated load”.

  With the above processing, the processing for creating the simulated load data 107b is completed.

  Hereinafter, effects in the present embodiment will be described.

  In the present embodiment, the driving method selection table generation unit 105d generates the driving method selection table 107e on the first day, and does not need to generate the driving method selection table 107e thereafter. The selection of “driving method” only needs to refer to the driving method selection table 107e. For this reason, it is not necessary to repeat many calculations every day, and the calculation amount is reduced.

  Further, the probability of hot water shortage occurring in a predetermined operation method is calculated from the past results of a customer different from the customer who wants to supply hot water, and the operation method selection table 107e is generated. For this reason, even if there is no accumulation of past usage records of customers who want to supply hot water, the optimal “driving method” can be acquired by selecting the “driving method” that has a low probability of hot water shortage.

  Further, when the operation method selection table 107e is generated, a “simulated load” in which the load amount is changed without changing the hot water supply load pattern is created using the actual hot water supply record of the customer. For this reason, even with the same load amount, it is possible to obtain more hot water supply load patterns than the actual hot water supply results of consumers.

  Further, the actual load extraction unit 105a extracts the “actual water temperature” within the predetermined range and the “actual accumulated load” as the day for calculating the simulated load data 107b. Only for those days. Here, if the water temperature is similar, the seasons are similar, and generally, the hot water supply load pattern is considered to vary depending on the seasons. From this, the actual load extraction unit 105a extracts the hot water supply load patterns on the day whose water temperatures are greatly different so as not to be mixed, and extracts a similar seasonal hot water supply load pattern. Also, if the accumulated load is similar, the hot water supply load at home is similar, and generally the hot water supply load at home is different, so the pattern of hot water supply load is considered to be different, for example, the number of times the bath is taken . From this, the actual load extraction unit 105a extracts the hot water supply load patterns on the day when the hot water supply greatly differs so as not to be mixed, and extracts the hot water supply load patterns of similar household usage. Therefore, the actual load extraction unit 105a excludes hot water supply load patterns that are unlikely to occur in practice from various hot water supply load patterns, extracts hot water supply load patterns that are considered to actually occur, and calculates “simulated load”. Has been.

  From the above, it is possible to create a large number of hot water supply load patterns that are considered to actually occur, and further, by performing an operation simulation, an operation method selection table 107e that can accommodate various customers is generated. By using this operation method selection table 107e, it is possible to select an “operation method” that is difficult to run out of hot water with various consumers with a small amount of calculation.

  Further, by making the “driving method” take into account the power consumption and the fee, it is possible to perform the operation with less power consumption and the fee.

  According to such a configuration of the present invention, it is possible to perform an operation with a small amount of calculation and a low possibility of hot water outflow and a low amount of power consumption and a charge even if there is no accumulation of past usage records of consumers. It becomes possible.

  As mentioned above, although the hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus 10 of the present invention has been described based on the embodiment, the present invention is not limited to this embodiment. Unless it deviates from the meaning of this invention, the form which carried out the various deformation | transformation which those skilled in the art can think to this embodiment, and the structure constructed | assembled combining the component in different embodiment is also contained in the scope of the present invention. .

  For example, in the configuration of the present embodiment, the hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus 10 generates the operation method selection table 107e by the operation planning apparatus 100. However, the hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus 10 is provided with the operation method selection table 107e from the beginning by storing the operation method selection table 107e generated in advance without generating the operation method selection table 107e. It may be.

  In the present embodiment, the actual load data 107a is a hot water supply record at one other customer. However, the actual load data 107a may be a hot water supply record at a plurality of other consumers. When the actual load data 107a has a larger number of data, it is possible to more accurately predict an optimal operation method for a customer who is supplied with hot water.

  In the present embodiment, the “heating temperature”, “midnight time zone heating amount”, “daytime time zone heating amount”, and “night time zone heating amount” of the operation method data 107c are all “operation”. The value is set to increase as the method number increases. However, the “boiling temperature”, “midnight time zone heating amount”, “daytime zone heating amount” and “night time zone heating amount” of the operation method data 107c are not limited to these, Even if the “driving method” number increases, it may be set to the same value or a reduced value.

  Further, in the present embodiment, the hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus 10 uses the generated operation method selection table 107e repeatedly to supply hot water to the consumer. However, the hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus 10 may regenerate the operation method selection table 107e by, for example, updating the actual load data 107a and the operation method data 107c every month, and supply hot water to consumers.

  Moreover, in this Embodiment, the hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus 10 decided to start the driving | operation command by the acquired driving | operation method for every day from 23:00. However, the hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus 10 does not start the operation command from 23:00, but the time to start the operation command may be any time such as 0:00 or 7:00. Further, the hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus 10 may issue an operation command every arbitrary period such as 12 hours or 48 hours, instead of issuing an operation command in units of one day.

  In addition, the actual load extraction unit 105a extracts a day in which the daily integrated amounts of the water temperature and the hot water supply load in different ranges are not mixed as the day for calculating the “simulated load”. However, it is considered that the actual load extraction unit 105a actually occurs by extracting a day in which the outside air temperature in different ranges, the amount of the hot water load used in one hour, and the like do not coexist due to the characteristics of the hot water load. A hot water supply load pattern may be extracted.

  In addition, the predicted load calculation unit 105e calculates the predicted integrated load using Equation 1 from the history of hot water supply loads for the past seven days. However, the history period used by the predicted load calculation unit 105e for prediction is not limited to 7 days, and may be any period such as 14 days or 28 days. The predicted load calculation unit 105e is not limited to calculating the predicted integrated load using the average and the standard deviation. For example, the predicted load calculating unit 105e uses the maximum value in the history as the predicted integrated load or performs regression analysis. It is also possible to calculate a predicted integrated load by using it. The same applies to the case where the predicted water temperature calculation unit 105f calculates the predicted water temperature.

  In the present embodiment, the operation planning apparatus 100 is provided inside the hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus 10. However, the operation planning apparatus 100 is realized by a general-purpose computer system such as a personal computer executing the program according to the present invention, and is not connected to the hot water supply unit 200, but is a stand-alone simulator (determination of an operation method). Function as a tool).

  In the present embodiment, the driving method selection table 107e is generated by the driving method selection table generating unit 105d of the driving planning apparatus 100. However, the driving method selection table 107e is realized by a general-purpose computer system such as a personal computer executing the program according to the present invention, and is generated by the driving method selection table generating device that functions as a stand-alone device. May be.

INDUSTRIAL APPLICABILITY The present invention can be used as a hot water storage hot water supply apparatus that stores heat in a hot water storage tank, for example, a hot water storage hot water supply apparatus provided with a hot water supply unit using electric power, such as a CO ₂ heat pump water heater or an electric water heater.

It is a schematic diagram of the hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus of this Embodiment. It is a block diagram which shows the function structure of the driving | running plan apparatus of this Embodiment. It is a figure explaining a database part and a program storage part in detail. It is a figure which shows an example of real load data. It is a figure which shows an example of simulated load data. It is a figure which shows an example of driving method data. It is a figure which shows an example of simulation operation result data. It is a figure which shows an example of a driving | operation method selection table. It is a flowchart which shows an example of operation | movement of the hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus in this Embodiment. It is a flowchart which shows an example of operation | movement of the hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus in this Embodiment. It is a flowchart which shows an example of operation | movement of the hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus in this Embodiment. It is a figure explaining the case where hot water runs out as a result of a driving simulation. It is a figure explaining the method in which the simulation load calculation part calculates simulation load. It is a figure explaining the method in which the simulation load calculation part calculates simulation load.

Explanation of symbols

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 10 Hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus 100 Operation planning apparatus 101 Operation control part 102 Display part 103 Input part 104 Memory part 105 Program storage part 105a Actual load extraction part 105b Simulated load calculation part 105c Simulated operation result calculation part 105d Operation method selection table generation part 105e Predicted load calculation unit 105f Predicted water temperature calculation unit 105g Operation method acquisition unit 105h Operation command unit 107 Database unit 107a Actual load data 107b Simulated load data 107c Operation method data 107d Simulated operation result data 107e Operation method selection table 200 Hot water supply unit 201 Hot water storage tank 202 Heat pump 203, 204, 205, 206 Piping

Claims (11)

A hot water storage system that stores boiled hot water in a hot water storage tank and supplies it to customers.
Simulated integrated load in which the integrated value of the daily hot water supply load calculated from the actual load that is the hot water supply load at each time when hot water is supplied to another customer different from the consumer is a predetermined value The hot water supply load at each time that becomes
Hot water is stored in the hot water storage tank by a predetermined operation method, and hot water is supplied according to the simulated load, so that a state where the hot water to be supplied is insufficient is run out.
The probability of running out of hot water for each simulated cumulative load is the simulated operation result,
The hot water storage water heater is
A driving method selection table generating unit that generates a driving method selection table in which the driving method is associated with the lowest cumulative load that is the smallest simulated cumulative load at which the simulated driving result is equal to or greater than a predetermined threshold;
By referring to the generated operation method selection table, it is possible to supply hot water to the consumer on the prediction date of the prediction target from the actual value of the accumulated value of the hot water load when the hot water is supplied to the consumer. A driving method acquisition unit for acquiring a driving method;
In accordance with the acquired operation method, an operation command unit that gives a boiling command to boil hot water so as to store hot water in the hot water storage tank to supply hot water to the consumer,
A hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus comprising: the hot water storage tank; and a hot water storage unit for storing heat in the hot water storage tank in accordance with the boiling command and supplying hot water to the consumer in accordance with instructions from the consumer. further,
A simulated load calculation unit that calculates the simulated load at a simulated water temperature that is a predetermined water temperature from the actual load at the actual water temperature that is the temperature of the water supplied to the hot water storage tank of the other consumer;
A simulation operation result calculation unit that calculates the simulation operation result for each simulated water temperature,
The hot water storage hot water supply apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the operation method selection table generation unit generates the operation method selection table in which the simulated water temperature is further associated with the operation method and the lower limit integrated load. The actual water temperature is a value within a first range determined from the simulated water temperature, and an actual integrated load that is an integrated value of the actual load for a day is within a second range determined from the simulated integrated load. An actual load extraction unit that extracts the actual load as a value in units of one day,
The simulated load calculation unit, when a value obtained by dividing the simulated accumulated load by the actual accumulated load at the extracted actual load is a load magnification, the load magnification is set to the extracted actual load at each time. The hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus according to claim 2, wherein the simulated load at each time is multiplied and calculated in units of one day. The operation method is an operation method of storing a predetermined amount of hot water in the hot water storage tank at a predetermined temperature at a predetermined time of the day,
The simulated operation result calculation unit calculates a ratio of the days when there is a shortage of hot water to be supplied to the days when the simulated load is calculated when hot water is stored in the hot water storage tank by the operation method. The hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus according to claim 3, wherein a simulated operation result is calculated as a probability that a break occurs. A hot water storage system that stores boiled hot water in a hot water storage tank and supplies it to customers.
Simulated integrated load in which the integrated value of the daily hot water supply load calculated from the actual load that is the hot water supply load at each time when hot water is supplied to another customer different from the consumer is a predetermined value The hot water supply load at each time that becomes
Hot water is stored in the hot water storage tank by a predetermined operation method, and hot water is supplied according to the simulated load, so that a state where the hot water to be supplied is insufficient is run out.
The probability of running out of hot water for each simulated cumulative load is the simulated operation result,
The hot water storage water heater is
An operation method selection table in which the operation method is associated with a lower limit integrated load that is the smallest simulated integrated load at which the simulated operation result is equal to or greater than a predetermined threshold;
By referring to the generated operation method selection table, it is possible to supply hot water to the consumer on the prediction date of the prediction target from the actual value of the accumulated value of the hot water load when the hot water is supplied to the consumer. A driving method acquisition unit for acquiring a driving method;
In accordance with the acquired operation method, an operation command unit that gives a boiling command to boil hot water so as to store hot water in the hot water storage tank to supply hot water to the consumer,
A hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus comprising: the hot water storage tank; and a hot water storage unit for storing heat in the hot water storage tank in accordance with the boiling command and supplying hot water to the consumer in accordance with instructions from the consumer. further,
A predicted water temperature calculation unit that calculates a predicted water temperature that is a predicted value of the water temperature on the predicted date, from the actual temperature of the water supplied to the hot water storage tank of the customer in a predetermined period;
A predicted integrated load, which is a predicted value of the integrated value of the hot water supply load on the predicted date, from the actual value of the integrated value of the hot water load on the predicted date when the hot water is supplied to the consumer in a predetermined period. A predicted load calculation unit for calculating,
The operation method acquisition unit refers to the operation method, the simulated water temperature, and the lower limit integrated load of the operation method selection table so that the predicted water temperature is a value within a first range determined from the simulated water temperature. The operation method at the lower limit integrated load, which is the minimum value of the lower limit integrated load at the simulated water temperature being equal to or higher than the predicted integrated load, is acquired as the operation method on the predicted date. The hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus according to any one of 5. The operation command unit sends a temperature command for boiling water and a command to start or stop the boiling operation to the hot water supply unit according to the operation method from the amount and temperature of the hot water stored in the hot water storage tank. The hot water storage type hot water supply apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 6. An operation planning device that determines an optimum operation method of a hot water storage hot water supply device that stores boiling water in a hot water storage tank and supplies hot water to a consumer,
Simulated integrated load in which the integrated value of the daily hot water supply load calculated from the actual load that is the hot water supply load at each time when hot water is supplied to another customer different from the consumer is a predetermined value The hot water supply load at each time that becomes
Hot water is stored in the hot water storage tank by a predetermined operation method, and hot water is supplied according to the simulated load, so that a state where the hot water to be supplied is insufficient is run out.
The probability of running out of hot water for each simulated cumulative load is the simulated operation result,
The operation planning device
A driving method selection table generating unit that generates a driving method selection table in which the driving method is associated with the lowest cumulative load that is the smallest simulated cumulative load at which the simulated driving result is equal to or greater than a predetermined threshold;
By referring to the generated operation method selection table, it is possible to supply hot water to the consumer on the prediction date of the prediction target from the actual value of the accumulated value of the hot water load when the hot water is supplied to the consumer. A driving method acquisition unit for acquiring a driving method;
An operation planning device comprising: an operation command unit that issues a boiling command to boil hot water so that hot water is stored in the hot water storage tank in order to supply hot water to the consumer in accordance with the acquired operation method. An operation method selection table generating device for generating a table for selecting an optimum operation method of a hot water storage hot water supply device for storing boiled hot water in a hot water storage tank and supplying hot water to a consumer,
Simulated integrated load in which the integrated value of the daily hot water supply load calculated from the actual load that is the hot water supply load at each time when hot water is supplied to another customer different from the consumer is a predetermined value The hot water supply load at each time that becomes
Hot water is stored in the hot water storage tank by a predetermined operation method, and hot water is supplied according to the simulated load, so that a state where the hot water to be supplied is insufficient is run out.
The probability of running out of hot water for each simulated cumulative load is the simulated operation result,
The driving method selection table generating device is
A driving method selection table generating unit that generates a driving method selection table that associates the driving method with the lower limit cumulative load that is the smallest simulated cumulative load at which the simulated driving result is equal to or greater than a predetermined threshold. Method selection table generation device. An operation planning method for determining an optimum operation method of a hot water storage type hot water supply device that stores boiled hot water in a hot water storage tank and supplies hot water to a consumer,
Simulated integrated load in which the integrated value of the daily hot water supply load calculated from the actual load that is the hot water supply load at each time when hot water is supplied to another customer different from the consumer is a predetermined value The hot water supply load at each time that becomes
Hot water is stored in the hot water storage tank by a predetermined operation method, and hot water is used in accordance with the simulated load.
The probability of running out of hot water for each simulated cumulative load is the simulated operation result,
The operation planning method includes:
A driving method selection table generating step for generating a driving method selection table in which the driving method is associated with the lowest cumulative load that is the smallest simulated cumulative load at which the simulated driving result is equal to or greater than a predetermined threshold;
By referring to the generated operation method selection table, it is possible to supply hot water to the consumer on the prediction date of the prediction target from the actual value of the accumulated value of the hot water load when the hot water is supplied to the consumer. A driving method acquisition step for acquiring a driving method;
An operation planning method comprising: an operation command step of giving a boiling command to boil hot water so as to store hot water in the hot water storage tank in order to supply hot water to the consumer in accordance with the acquired operation method. A program for determining an optimum operation method of a hot water storage type hot water supply device that stores boiling water in a hot water storage tank and supplies hot water to a consumer.
Simulated integrated load in which the integrated value of the daily hot water supply load calculated from the actual load that is the hot water supply load at each time when hot water is supplied to another customer different from the consumer is a predetermined value The hot water supply load at each time that becomes
Hot water is stored in the hot water storage tank by a predetermined operation method, and hot water is supplied according to the simulated load, so that a state where the hot water to be supplied is insufficient is run out.
The probability of running out of hot water for each simulated cumulative load is the simulated operation result,
A driving method selection table generating step for generating a driving method selection table in which the driving method is associated with the lowest cumulative load that is the smallest simulated cumulative load at which the simulated driving result is equal to or greater than a predetermined threshold;
By referring to the generated operation method selection table, it is possible to supply hot water to the consumer on the prediction date of the prediction target from the actual value of the accumulated value of the hot water load when the hot water is supplied to the consumer. A driving method acquisition step for acquiring a driving method;
A program for causing a computer to execute an operation command step of giving a boiling instruction to boil hot water so as to store hot water in the hot water storage tank in order to supply hot water to the consumer in accordance with the acquired operation method.

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