JP4934660B2 - Communication bandwidth calculation method, apparatus, and traffic management method - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a communication technique, and more particularly to a technique for predicting a communication band that will be required in the future.

In managing a communication network, a technique for accurately calculating a communication band necessary for ensuring the sufficiency of traffic in a future design target period is required for an arbitrary communication path connecting nodes.
Conventionally, as a technique for calculating the communication band of such a communication bus, the traffic of each communication line superimposed on the communication path is observed, and analysis is performed using the obtained time-series traffic information. Analysis (for example, non-patent documents 1 and 2), or analysis using information obtained by adding environmental information such as population composition, household attributes, business affiliation to observed time-series traffic (for example, non-patent documents) (See Patent Documents 3 and 4).

Hiromichi Kawano et al., "Traffic Prediction Method for Macro Analysis and its Evaluation", IEICE B, J-82-B, 6 (1999) Toru Ueda et al., “Application of Time Series Analysis Methods in Telecommunications”, Operations Research, Vol.34, No.10, pp530-534 (1989) Hoshigochiho et al., “Examination of multiple regression model for call volume”, Shinsei Society, Autumn Meeting (1992) Toru Ueda et al., "Analysis of communication usage trends based on statistical methods", NTT R & D, Vol.40, No.12 (1991)

  However, such a conventional technique focuses on derivation of a new traffic amount that is assumed to occur on average by a new communication line that is newly superimposed on the target communication path in the future, and will occur in the future. For the upper limit of the traffic volume, the deviation from the average traffic volume generated in the future is statistically calculated using the information on the error variance of the observed traffic volume that occurred in the past and the standard error of the estimation variable. It was necessary to calculate by estimating.

For this reason, information on the upper limit value of each communication line on the communication path for which the upper limit value is to be calculated, for example, information indicating the allocated bandwidth allocated to each communication line at the time of the contract cannot be effectively utilized, This is due to the actual amount observed as past traffic, and there is a problem that the potential capacity that may be used in the future is not taken into account, although it is not used at the time of bandwidth calculation.
In cases where the observed traffic volume fluctuates drastically, statistical estimation cannot show significance. Therefore, there is a problem that the obtained calculated value cannot be trusted, or the calculation band is greatly influenced and does not exhibit a stable value.

  The present invention is intended to solve such a problem, and a communication band calculation method and apparatus capable of calculating a communication band with less error while considering a potential capacity that may be used in the future. , And aims to provide a program.

In order to achieve such an object, a communication bandwidth calculation method according to the present invention is a communication bandwidth calculation device that calculates a necessary communication bandwidth required for a future design target period for an arbitrary target communication path on a communication network. Is a communication band calculation method used in the above, and the observed traffic amount of traffic generated from the existing communication line superimposed on the target communication path at the time of calculation from the communication network, and the existing traffic line assigned to the existing communication line Collect and store network information including allocated bandwidth and new allocated bandwidth allocated to a new communication line that is newly superimposed on the target communication path from the time of calculation until the design target period. based on the amount and the existing allocated bandwidth, the traffic volume expected value indicating the expectation value of the traffic volume of the existing communication lines Out, based on the new assignment bandwidth of traffic expected value and network information, it calculates a new amount of traffic dispersion maximum value indicating the maximum value of the variance of the traffic volume of the new communication lines, new allocated bandwidth, traffic volume expected value, Based on the new maximum traffic amount variance, the necessary communication bandwidth required for the target communication path in the design target period is calculated.

  At this time, a set of new communication lines is set as I, a new allocated bandwidth of a new communication line i belonging to the set I is set as Bi, a traffic amount expected value is set as Q, a new traffic amount distribution maximum value is set as V (Z), When the reliability standard of the obtained communication band is α, the calculation formula of the required communication band BW, the relational expression between the band design reliability ρ and the reliability standard α, and the new traffic amount dispersion maximum value V (Z) The above formula may be used as the calculation formula.

The communication band calculation apparatus according to the present invention is a communication band calculation apparatus that calculates a necessary communication band required for a future design target period for an arbitrary target communication path on a communication network. The observed traffic volume of traffic generated from the existing communication line superimposed on the target communication path at the time of calculation execution, the existing allocated bandwidth allocated to the existing communication line, and the period from the calculation execution time to the design target period A network information collecting unit that collects network information including a new allocated band allocated to a new communication line that is newly superimposed on the target communication path and stores the network information in a storage unit; an observation traffic amount of the network information; and an existing allocated band based on, it calculates the traffic amount expectation value indicating the expectation value of the traffic volume of the existing communication line, traffic volume Based on the new assignment band waiting value and network information, it calculates a new amount of traffic dispersion maximum value indicating the maximum value of the variance of the traffic volume of the new communication lines, new allocated bandwidth, traffic volume expected, and new traffic And a bandwidth calculation processing unit that calculates a necessary communication bandwidth required for the target communication path in the previous design target period based on the maximum variance value.

  Further, the bandwidth calculation processing unit sets the set of new communication lines as I, sets the new allocated bandwidth of the new communication line i belonging to the set I as Bi, sets the expected traffic amount as Q, and sets the new traffic amount distribution maximum as V. (Z), where α is the reliability standard of the communication band to be obtained, the formula for calculating the required communication band BW, the relational expression between the band design reliability rate ρ and the reliability standard α, and the new traffic amount variance maximum value The above formula may be used as a formula for calculating V (Z).

  The traffic management method according to the present invention is obtained by sequentially calculating the necessary communication band of the target communication path for any target communication path on the communication network by the communication band calculation method described in any one of the above. Based on the necessary communication band, the traffic amount related to the target communication path is monitored.

  According to the present invention, it is possible to obtain a communication band in consideration of the traffic volume upper limit value of each communication line superimposed on the target communication path, while considering the potential capacity that may be used in the future, It is possible to calculate a communication band with a small error.

Next, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.
First, a communication band calculation apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a configuration of a communication band calculating apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention.

  The communication band calculation device 10 is composed of an information processing device such as a server device using a computer as a whole, and network information relating to each communication line superimposed on the target communication path 23 connecting the nodes 21 and 22 is obtained from the communication network 20. And a function of calculating a communication band necessary for ensuring the sufficiency of traffic in the future design target period of the target communication path 23 based on the network information, acquired from the operation system 30 that manages and operates the communication network 20 have.

  According to the present invention, in the communication band calculation device 10, the observed traffic amount of traffic generated from the existing communication line superimposed on the target communication path 23 at the time of calculation from the communication network 20 and the existing communication line are allocated. Network information including the existing allocated bandwidth and the new allocated bandwidth allocated to the new communication line that is newly superimposed on the target communication path 23 between the calculation execution time and the design target period. Based on the observed traffic volume and the existing allocated bandwidth, the expected value of the traffic volume of the existing communication line is calculated. Based on the expected traffic volume and the newly allocated bandwidth of the network information, the traffic volume of the new communication line is calculated. Calculate the maximum value of variance, new allocated bandwidth, expected traffic volume, and maximum new traffic volume variance Based on, and calculates the required communication bandwidth required in the target communication path 23 to the design target period.

[Configuration of the embodiment]
Next, the configuration of the communication band calculation device according to the embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIG.
The communication band calculation device 10 is composed of an arithmetic processing device such as a server device or a personal computer as a whole. Based on various network information collected from the communication network 20, the communication band calculation device 10 can be used for future target communication paths 23 on the communication network 20. This is a device for calculating a necessary communication band required in the design target period.

  The communication band calculating device 10 includes, as main functional units, a communication interface unit (hereinafter referred to as a communication I / F unit) 11, a screen display unit 12, an operation input unit 13, a network information database (hereinafter referred to as a network information DB). ) 14, a storage unit 15, and an arithmetic processing unit 16 are provided and are connected to each other via the data bus B. The arithmetic processing unit 16 includes a network information collection unit 16A and a band calculation processing unit 16B as main processing units.

The communication I / F unit 11 includes a dedicated data communication circuit, and has a function of performing packet communication with external devices such as the nodes 21 and 22 and the operation system 30 of the communication network 20.
The screen display unit 12 includes a screen display device such as an LCD or a PDP, and has a function of displaying various information such as an operation menu and a calculation result on the screen in response to an instruction from the arithmetic processing unit 16.
The operation input unit 13 includes an operation input device such as a keyboard and a mouse, and has a function of detecting an operation of the operator and outputting the operation to the arithmetic processing unit 16.

  The network information DB 14 includes a storage device such as a hard disk, and has a function of storing and storing network information collected by a network information collection unit 16A described later. FIG. 2 is a configuration example of network information. In this example, the observed traffic amount Y of traffic generated from each existing communication line j (j∈J) superimposed on the target communication path 23 at the time of calculation of the required communication band, and assigned to each existing communication line j. The existing allocated bandwidth Cj and the new allocated bandwidth Bi allocated to each new communication line i (i∈I) newly superimposed on the target communication path 23 between the calculation execution time and the design target period are registered. ing.

The storage unit 15 includes a storage device such as a hard disk or a memory, and has a function of storing various processing information and programs used for the bandwidth calculation processing in the arithmetic processing unit 16.
The arithmetic processing unit 16 includes a microprocessor such as a CPU and its peripheral circuits, and reads and executes a program in the storage unit 15, so that the network information collection unit 16 </ b> A and the bandwidth calculation processing unit 16 </ b> B are used as main processing units. It has a function to realize.

  The network information collection unit 16A performs a data communication with the nodes 21 and 22 via the communication I / F unit 11, thereby collecting the observation traffic amount related to the entire target communication path 23 and storing it in the network information DB 14. By performing data communication with the operation system 30 via the communication I / F unit 11, for each existing communication line j superimposed on the target communication path 23 at the time of calculation, the existing communication line j set at the time of contracting A traffic volume upper limit value, that is, a function of collecting the existing allocated bandwidth Cj and storing it in the network information DB 14, and a new communication line i that is newly superimposed on the target communication path 23 between the time of calculation and the design target period Collect the traffic volume upper limit value of the new communication line i set at the time of the contract, that is, the new allocated bandwidth Bi. And a function to be saved to the network information DB14.

  The bandwidth calculation processing unit 16B expects the traffic volume of each existing communication line j superimposed on the target communication path 23 based on the observed traffic volume Y and the existing allocated bandwidth Cj in the network information read from the network information DB 14. Based on the function of calculating the value Q, the expected traffic amount Q, and the new allocated bandwidth Bi in the network information read from the network information DB 14, the maximum variance V of the new traffic amount Z of the new communication line i ( Z) and a necessary communication bandwidth required for the target communication path 23 in the design target period based on the new allocation bandwidth Bi, the expected traffic amount Q, and the new traffic amount dispersion maximum value V (Z). And a function of calculating BW.

[Operation of this embodiment]
Next, with reference to FIG. 3 and FIG. 4, the operation of the communication band calculating device according to the embodiment of the present invention will be described. FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing a band calculation operation of the communication band calculation apparatus according to the embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing a band calculation process of the communication band calculation apparatus according to the embodiment of the present invention.

  The arithmetic processing unit 16 of the communication band calculating device 10 receives a band calculation start instruction from the operator detected by the operation input unit 13, a band calculation start instruction from an external device received by the communication I / F unit 11, or a predetermined band. The band calculation operation of FIG. 3 is started in response to the arrival of the calculation start timing.

  First, the arithmetic processing unit 16 performs data communication with the nodes 21 and 22 via the communication I / F unit 11 by the network information collection unit 16A, thereby obtaining the observed traffic amount Y (14B) regarding the entire target communication path 23. Collected and stored in the network information DB 14. In addition, by performing data communication with the operation system 30 via the communication I / F unit 11, for each existing communication line j superimposed on the target communication path 23 at the time of calculation, the existing communication line set at the time of contracting j for the existing allocated bandwidth Cj (14C) and the new communication set at the time of the contract for each new communication line i that is newly superimposed on the target communication path 23 between the calculation execution time and the design target period. New allocation bandwidth Bi (14D) of line i is collected and stored in network information DB 14 as network information 14A (step 100).

Next, the arithmetic processing unit 16 reads the network information 14A of each communication line from the network information DB 14 by the bandwidth calculation processing unit 16B (step 101), and based on the network information 14A, A necessary communication band BW (15C) required in the design target period is calculated.
As shown in FIG. 4, the bandwidth calculation processing unit 16B is provided with a traffic amount expected value calculation unit 17A, a traffic amount dispersion maximum value calculation unit 17B, and a necessary bandwidth calculation unit 17C as processing units for bandwidth calculation. Yes.

First, the arithmetic processing unit 16 uses the expected traffic amount calculation unit 17A to superimpose each of the target communication paths 23 on the basis of the observed traffic amount Y (14B) and the existing allocated bandwidth Cj (14C) of the network information 14A. An expected value Q (15A) of the traffic volume of the existing communication line j is calculated and stored in the storage unit 15 (step 102).
Next, the arithmetic processing unit 16 uses the traffic amount dispersion maximum value calculation unit 17B based on the traffic amount expected value Q (15A) read from the storage unit 15 and the newly allocated bandwidth Bi (14D) of the network information 14A. The maximum variance V (Z) (15B) of the new traffic amount Z generated from the new communication line i is calculated and stored in the storage unit 15 (step 103).

  Subsequently, the arithmetic processing unit 16 reads from the storage unit 15 the existing allocated bandwidth Cj (14C) of the network information 14A, the expected traffic amount Q (15A) read from the storage unit 15, and the required bandwidth calculation unit 17C. Based on the new maximum traffic amount variance V (Z) (15B), a necessary communication band BW (15C) required for the target communication path 23 in the design target period is calculated (step 104), and a series of communication bands The calculation operation is terminated.

[Traffic expectation calculation process]
Next, an expected traffic amount calculation process in the expected traffic amount calculation unit 17A will be described. The traffic amount expected value calculation unit 17A calculates the expected value Q of the traffic amount of each existing communication line j superimposed on the target communication path 23 through the following calculation process.

When the set of existing communication lines superimposed on the target communication path 23 at the time of calculation is J and the existing allocated bandwidth of the existing communication line j belonging to this set J is Cj, it is superimposed on the target communication path 23. The expected value Q of the traffic volume of each existing communication line j is defined by the following equation (1).

[Traffic maximum variance calculation process]
Next, the traffic amount dispersion maximum value calculation process in the traffic amount dispersion maximum value calculation unit 17B will be described. The traffic amount variance maximum value calculation unit 17B calculates the traffic amount variance maximum value V (Z) of each new communication line i in the design target period by the following calculation process.

When the set of new communication lines i superimposed on the target communication path 23 from the calculation execution time to the design target period is I, and the new allocated bandwidth of the new communication line i belonging to the set I is Bi, new communication The traffic utilization rate Xi of the line i is a value obtained by dividing the traffic of the new communication line i by the new allocated bandwidth Bi. Therefore, the new traffic amount Z generated from all the new communication lines i is expressed by the following equation (2).

Here, the following assumptions are made for the new communication line i.
First, it is assumed that {Xi, for iεI} follows a probability distribution in which the traffic amount expected value Q of the existing communication line j is an average value.
Further, {Xi, for iεI} are assumed to be independent from each other.
Furthermore, the set I has a sufficiently large number of elements (new existing line i), and therefore, the new traffic amount Z follows a normal distribution according to the center limit theorem.

For this reason, when the average value is the expected traffic amount Q, the maximum variance V (Xi) of the traffic utilization rate Xi for the existing communication line j is expressed by the following equation (3).

Further, since {Xi, for iεI} are independent from each other, additiveness of dispersion is established. Therefore, the maximum variance V (Z) of the new traffic amount Z is expressed by the following equation (4).

[Required bandwidth calculation process]
Next, the required bandwidth calculation process in the required bandwidth calculation unit 17C will be described. The required bandwidth calculation unit 17C calculates the required communication bandwidth BW required for the target communication path 23 in the design target period by the following calculation process.

この際、帯域設計信頼率をρとした場合、信頼性基準αは、

によって定まる値とする。 From the above assumption and the equation (4), the variance maximum value V (Z) of the new traffic amount Z follows a normal distribution with an average of Σ _iεI Bi · Q and a variance of V (Z).
Therefore, when the reliability standard of the necessary communication band BW to be calculated is α, the necessary communication band BW necessary for the target communication path 23 in the design target period can be calculated by the following equation (5).

At this time, when the bandwidth design reliability is ρ, the reliability criterion α is

The value determined by.

[Effects of the present embodiment]
As described above, in this embodiment, the observed traffic amount Y of traffic generated from the existing communication line j superimposed on the target communication path 23 at the time of calculation is assigned from the communication network 20 and assigned to the existing communication line j. Network information 14A including the existing allocated bandwidth Cj that is allocated and the new allocated bandwidth Bi that is allocated to the new communication line i that is newly superimposed on the target communication path 23 between the calculation execution time and the design target period. Based on the observed traffic volume Y of the network information 14A and the existing allocated bandwidth Cj, the expected value Q of the traffic volume of the existing communication line j is calculated, and this traffic volume expected value Q and the new allocation of the network information 14A are calculated. Based on the bandwidth Bi, the maximum variance V (Z) of the traffic amount of the new communication line i is calculated, and these new allocations Band Bi, traffic volume expected value Q, and based on the new traffic dispersion maximum value V (Z), calculates the required communication bandwidth BW needed by the target communication path 23 to the design target period.

  As a result, it is possible to obtain an upper limit value of the traffic amount of each communication line superimposed on the target communication path 23, that is, a communication band in consideration of an allocated band, while considering a potential capacity that may be used in the future. Therefore, it is possible to calculate a communication band with less error.

  Further, in the present embodiment, the case where the communication bandwidth calculation device 10 calculates the required communication bandwidth of the target communication path 23 has been described. However, in the communication bandwidth calculation device 10, the target communication path is based on the calculated required communication bandwidth. 23 may be monitored for changes in traffic volume.

  Specifically, in the arithmetic processing unit 16, the network information collection unit 16 </ b> A performs data communication with the nodes 21 and 22 via the communication I / F unit 11, thereby sequentially determining the observed traffic amount regarding the entire target communication path 23. What is necessary is just to compare with the required communication band which is collected and stored in the storage unit 15. As a result, it is possible to monitor the traffic fluctuation of the target communication path 23 and perform appropriate network management such as alarm notification to the administrator and traffic adjustment of the target communication path 23 according to the comparison result. . Further, such traffic fluctuation monitoring may be performed by a traffic management device provided separately from the communication bandwidth calculation device 10 based on the necessary communication bandwidth calculated by the communication bandwidth calculation device 10. .

It is a block diagram which shows the structure of the communication band calculation apparatus concerning one embodiment of this invention. It is a structural example of network information. It is a flowchart which shows the band calculation operation | movement of the communication band calculation apparatus concerning one embodiment of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows the band calculation process of the communication band calculation apparatus concerning one embodiment of this invention.

Explanation of symbols

  DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 10 ... Bandwidth calculation apparatus, 11 ... Communication I / F part, 12 ... Screen display part, 13 ... Operation input part, 14 ... Network information DB, 14A ... Network information, 14B ... Observed traffic volume, 14C ... Existing allocation band, 14D ... New allocation band, 15 ... Storage unit, 15A ... Expected traffic amount, 15B ... Maximum traffic amount variance, 15C ... Necessary communication band, 16 ... Arithmetic processing unit, 16A ... Network information collecting unit, 16B ... Band calculation processing unit , 17A ... Traffic amount expected value calculation unit, 17B ... Traffic amount dispersion maximum value calculation unit, 17C ... Necessary bandwidth calculation unit, 20 ... Communication network, 21, 22 ... Node, 23 ... Target communication path, 30 ... Operation system, Y ... Observed traffic volume, j ... Existing communication line, Cj ... Existing allocation band, i ... New communication line, Bi ... New allocation band, Q ... Traffic Click expected quantity, Xi ... traffic utilization, Z ... new traffic, V (Z) ... new traffic dispersion maximum value, BW ... necessary communication band.

Claims (7)

A communication band calculation method used in a communication band calculation device for calculating a necessary communication band required for a future design target period for an arbitrary target communication path on a communication network,
From the communication network, the observed traffic amount of traffic generated from the existing communication line superimposed on the target communication path at the time of calculation execution, the existing allocated bandwidth allocated to the existing communication line, and the calculation execution time Collecting and storing network information including a new allocated bandwidth allocated to a new communication line that is newly superimposed on the target communication path until the design target period;
Based on the observed traffic amount of the network information and the existing allocated bandwidth, calculate an expected traffic amount value indicating an expected value of the traffic amount of the existing communication line,
Based on the expected traffic amount and the new allocated bandwidth of the network information, a new traffic amount dispersion maximum value indicating a maximum value of the traffic amount distribution of the new communication line is calculated,
Based on the new allocated bandwidth, the expected traffic amount, and the new traffic amount variance maximum value, a required communication bandwidth required for the target communication path in the design target period is calculated. Method. In the communication band calculation method according to claim 1,
A set of the new communication lines is set as I, a new allocated bandwidth of the new communication line i belonging to the set I is set as Bi, the expected traffic amount is set as Q, and the new traffic amount distribution maximum value is set as V (Z). When the reliability standard of the obtained communication band is α, the required communication band BW is

When the bandwidth design reliability is ρ, the reliability criterion α is

A communication bandwidth calculation method characterized in that the value is determined by. In the communication band calculation method according to claim 2,
The new maximum traffic amount variance V (Z)

A communication band calculation method characterized by calculating by the following. A communication bandwidth calculation device for calculating a necessary communication bandwidth required for a future design target period for an arbitrary target communication path on a communication network,
From the communication network, the observed traffic amount of traffic generated from the existing communication line superimposed on the target communication path at the time of calculation execution, the existing allocated bandwidth allocated to the existing communication line, and the calculation execution time A network information collection unit that collects network information including a new allocated bandwidth allocated to a new communication line that is newly superimposed on the target communication path until the design target period, and stores the network information in a storage unit;
Based on the observed traffic amount of the network information and the existing allocated bandwidth , a traffic amount expected value indicating an expected value of the traffic amount of the existing communication line is calculated, and the traffic amount expected value and the new allocated bandwidth of the network information A new traffic amount variance maximum value indicating a maximum value of the traffic amount variance of the new communication line is calculated based on the new allocated bandwidth, the traffic amount expected value, and the new traffic amount variance maximum value A bandwidth calculation processing unit that calculates a required communication bandwidth required for the target communication path in the previous design target period. In the communication band calculation device according to claim 4,
The bandwidth calculation processing unit sets the set of new communication lines as I, sets the new allocated bandwidth of the communication line i belonging to the set I as Bi, sets the expected traffic amount as Q, and sets the new traffic amount distribution maximum as the maximum value. V (Z), where α is the reliability standard of the obtained communication band, the required communication band BW is

When the bandwidth design reliability is ρ, the reliability criterion α is

A communication band calculation device characterized by a value determined by In the communication band calculation device according to claim 5,
The bandwidth calculation processing unit calculates the new traffic amount variance maximum value V (Z).

A communication band calculating device characterized by the above calculation.   For any target communication path on the communication network, the required communication band of the target communication path is sequentially calculated by the communication band calculation method according to any one of claims 1 to 3, and the required communication band obtained A traffic management method characterized by monitoring a change in traffic volume related to the target communication path based on the above.

Images