JP4782656B2 - Rainwater runoff estimation device and program - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a stormwater runoff estimation technique, and more particularly to a technique for estimating an stormwater runoff that flows from an arbitrary target area into a main waterway such as a sewer or a river in accordance with rainfall.

  In combined sewerage systems that transport domestic wastewater (sewage) and rain (rainwater) from households and business establishments to a sewage treatment plant using pipes of the same system laid underground, they fall into the treatment area of the sewage treatment plant. As rain flows into the pipes, the amount of sewage inflow during rainy weather is greatly increased compared with that during sunny weather. Moreover, even in the case of a shunting system that separates domestic wastewater and rain separately to the sewage treatment plant using different types of pipes, especially in the case of urban torrential rain, a large amount of rainwater flows into the pipes in a short time. To do. For this reason, in order to determine the scale required for these pipes and rivers and to appropriately formulate a flood / flood countermeasure plan, the outflow of rainwater that flows from any area to the main waterways such as sewers and rivers during rainfall It is necessary to accurately estimate the quantity in time series.

  Conventionally, as a technique similar to the technique for estimating the amount of stormwater runoff from any target area, rainwater inundation data in the target area and data indicating the water holding capacity of the land are collected to generate a flood inundation analysis model. Thus, a technique for estimating the overflow area in the target area and identifying the overflow area has been proposed (see, for example, Non-Patent Document 1).

http://www.kkr.mlit.go.jp/kingi/database/kannai/h15/07/720-naisuihanran.pdf, “Construction of inundation analysis model considering inland flooding”, 2003 In-vitro Technology Research Presentation (paper data PDF), Kinki Technical Office, Kinki Regional Development Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism

However, with such conventional technology, when generating an inundation analysis model, in addition to rainfall data, there are a great deal of data such as structure / equipment data regarding river channels and sewers, topographic data of the target area, and data indicating the water retention capacity of the land. However, there is a problem that it is not possible to easily estimate the occurrence of overflow in the target area and the overflow area. In particular, soil quality surveys are necessary for data such as roughness coefficient and runoff rate, which indicate the water retention capacity of the land, and are difficult to implement in terms of workload and cost.
The present invention is for solving such a problem, and it is possible to easily estimate the amount of rainwater flowing out from an arbitrary target area to a main waterway such as a sewer or a river in accordance with rainfall. An object is to provide an estimation device and a program.

In order to achieve such an object, the rainwater outflow estimation device according to the present invention estimates a time series change in the amount of rainwater outflow flowing from an arbitrary target area to a main waterway such as a sewer or a river according to rainfall. A stormwater runoff estimation device, which is based on precipitation data showing the time-series change of precipitation in each measurement mesh provided by dividing the target area in a grid pattern, and the target watershed that is the main waterway basin including the target area A storage unit for storing flow rate data indicating a time-series change in the flow rate of water flowing into the main channel, accumulation period data indicating a plurality of accumulation periods for precipitation data, and precipitation of each measurement mesh based on each accumulation period Precipitation integration means for calculating integrated precipitation data indicating the time-series change of integrated precipitation in each measurement mesh by integrating the amount data, and integrated precipitation Pattern matching analysis of the time series changes of the data and the flow rate data, and a correlation value calculation means for calculating the correlation value of each for each measurement mesh for each integration period, and the integrated precipitation data and correlation value of each integration period A sum of flow calculation values for each measurement mesh, and an outflow amount estimation means for calculating runoff amount estimation data indicating a time-series change in the amount of rainwater outflow flowing out from the target area based on the sum of the sum of products Yes.

  At this time, the precipitation data of each measurement mesh is mutually interpolated to calculate unit precipitation data indicating the time series change of precipitation in each block provided by dividing each measurement mesh into a grid. Unit precipitation calculation means is further provided, and the storage unit stores analysis blocks constituting the target area in each block, and the precipitation accumulation means stores each analysis block based on the unit precipitation data calculated for the analysis block. Calculate the total precipitation data, calculate the sum of products calculated for each analysis block by the runoff estimation means, and show the time series change of the stormwater runoff from the target area based on the sum of these sums of products The outflow amount estimation data may be calculated.

Further, the storage unit stores area correction coefficients indicating the ratio of the target area in each analysis block, and the outflow amount estimation means calculates the product-sum operation value calculated for each analysis block as the area correction coefficient of the measurement mesh. After the correction, the outflow amount estimation data indicating the time series change of the stormwater outflow amount flowing out from the target area may be calculated based on the sum of the corrected product-sum calculation values.
Moreover, you may use the rain incremental flow which shows the difference of the flow rate at the time of rainy weather including the rainwater which flowed out from the object area, and the flow rate at the time of non-rainy weather as flow rate data.

The program according to the present invention includes a computer of a stormwater runoff estimation device that estimates the amount of stormwater runoff from any target area to a main waterway such as a sewer or a river in accordance with rainfall, and a time series of precipitation in the target area. Precipitation data showing changes, flow data showing time-series changes in the flow rate of water flowing into the main waterway from the target watershed, which is the main waterway basin including the target area, and integration indicating multiple integration periods for precipitation data The storage step of storing the period data in the storage unit, and the precipitation accumulation means, by integrating the precipitation data based on each accumulation period of the accumulation period data, the accumulated precipitation in the target area for each accumulation period Precipitation accumulation step for calculating accumulated precipitation data showing time series changes, and correlation value calculation means. Each of the series changes is subjected to pattern matching analysis, and a correlation value calculation step for calculating a correlation value between the two for each integration period, and an outflow estimation means to calculate a sum-of-products operation value of the integrated precipitation data and the correlation value for each integration period. A runoff amount estimation step that is output as estimation data of the runoff amount of rainwater flowing out from the target area.

  According to the present invention, precipitation data of each measurement mesh is accumulated based on each predetermined accumulation period by the precipitation accumulation means, and the time series change of the accumulated precipitation in each measurement mesh is performed for each accumulation period. The accumulated precipitation data shown is calculated, and the correlation value calculation means performs pattern matching analysis on the time series changes of the accumulated precipitation data and the flow data, respectively, and the correlation value between the two is calculated for each measurement mesh for each accumulation period, The product sum calculation value of the accumulated precipitation data and the correlation value for each integration period is calculated for each measurement mesh by the runoff estimation means, and the rainwater outflow amount flowing out from the target area based on the sum of these product sum calculation values is calculated. Outflow amount estimation data indicating a time-series change is calculated.

  This makes it possible to collect sewerage and sewerage from any target area according to the rainfall without collecting extremely many types of data, such as structure / equipment data on river channels and sewers, topographic data of the target areas, and data indicating water retention capacity of the land. It is possible to easily estimate the amount of rainwater that flows into a main channel such as a river in time series.

Next, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.
[First Embodiment]
First, a rainwater outflow estimation device according to a first embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing the configuration of the rainwater outflow estimation apparatus according to the first embodiment of the present invention.

  This stormwater runoff estimation device 10 includes precipitation data 61 measured in the target basin 1 that is the basin of the main waterway 2 such as sewers and rivers, and measurement points provided on the downstream side of the target basin 1 in the main waterway 2. The flow rate data 62 measured at P is taken as measurement data 6, and based on these measurement data 6, the amount of rainwater outflow flowing out from any target area 3 in the target basin 1 to the main canal 2 at the time of rainfall is time-sequentially. This is an estimation device.

  This embodiment integrates precipitation data of each measurement mesh based on each predetermined accumulation period, so that accumulated precipitation data indicating a time series change of the accumulated precipitation in each measurement mesh for each integration period. The time series changes of accumulated precipitation data and flow rate data are each subjected to pattern matching analysis, and the correlation value between them is calculated for each measurement mesh for each accumulation period, and the accumulated precipitation data and correlation value for each accumulation period are calculated. Is calculated for each measurement mesh, and runoff amount estimation data indicating a time-series change in the amount of rainwater outflow flowing out from the target area is calculated based on the sum of the product sum operation values.

Hereinafter, the configuration of the rainwater outflow estimation device 10 according to the first embodiment of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to FIG. 1.
The stormwater runoff estimation device 10 as a whole comprises an information processing device such as a personal computer that outputs desired information by performing arithmetic processing on the input processing information, and includes a data input unit 11 and an operation input unit 12. A screen display unit 13, a data output unit 14, a storage unit 15, and an arithmetic processing unit 16 are provided.

The data input unit 11 is composed of a dedicated interface circuit unit, and has a function of fetching measurement data 6 and other data used for the rainwater outflow estimation processing from an external device or a recording medium, and a function of saving the fetched data in the storage unit 15. have.
The main measurement data 6 captured by the data input unit 11 includes precipitation data 61 and flow rate data 62.

  Precipitation data 61 is the amount of precipitation measured in an arbitrary target area 3 located upstream of the measurement point P in the target basin 1 during a predetermined estimation target period selected for estimating the amount of rainwater runoff. It is data showing a time series change. The target area 3 is divided based on the configuration of the water channel connected to the main water channel 2. The precipitation data 61 may be obtained by obtaining desired parameters from a meteorological observation system 4 such as AMeDAS that provides general weather data. For example, the precipitation data 61 has a one-hour cycle from the Japan Meteorological Agency and a ten-minute cycle from the river information center. Are provided respectively.

  The flow rate data 62 is data indicating a time-series change in the flow rate of water measured at the measurement point P provided on the downstream side of the main channel 2 in the estimation target period. When the main canal 2 is a sewer pipe, the sewage inflow measured at the sewage treatment plant may be used. When the main canal 2 is a river, the river flow rate measured at an observation station provided in the river is used. That's fine. The flow rate data 62 may be measured by a known measurement method such as a surface velocity type flow rate measurement method.

The operation input unit 12 includes an operation input device such as a keyboard and a mouse, and has a function of detecting an operation of the operator and outputting the operation to the arithmetic processing unit 16.
The screen display unit 13 includes a screen display device such as an LCD or a PDP, and has a function of displaying an operation menu and outflow amount estimation data on the screen in response to an instruction from the arithmetic processing unit 16.
The data output unit 14 includes a dedicated interface circuit, and has a function of outputting various processing data such as the outflow amount estimation data 7 to an external device or a recording medium in response to an instruction from the arithmetic processing unit 16.

The storage unit 15 includes a storage device such as a hard disk or a memory, and has a function of storing various processing data and programs 15P used for processing in the arithmetic processing unit 16. The program 15P is a program that is read and executed by the arithmetic processing unit 16, and is read in advance from an external device or a storage medium and stored in the storage unit 15.
The main processing data stored in the storage unit 15 includes precipitation data 15A, flow data 15B, integration period data 15C, target area data 15D, unit precipitation data 15E, integrated precipitation data 15F, correlation value 15G, and There is outflow estimation data 15H.

The precipitation data 15 </ b> A and the flow data 15 </ b> B are obtained by storing precipitation data 61 and flow data 62 captured as measurement data 6 by the data input unit 11.
The accumulation period data 15 </ b> C is data indicating a plurality of accumulation periods for the precipitation data 15 </ b> A, and is previously input from the data input unit 11 and the operation input unit 12 and stored in the storage unit 15.
The target area data 15D is data indicating the configuration of the target area 3 in the target basin 1, and is previously input from the data input unit 11 and the operation input unit 12 and stored in the storage unit 15.

  In general, precipitation data is provided for each measurement mesh of 1 km square, for example. When the target area 3 covers a plurality of measurement meshes, data indicating the correspondence between the target area 3 and the measurement mesh is required. In addition, in order to cope with area correction when the boundary of the target area 3 crosses the measurement mesh, when the measurement mesh is divided into lattice blocks, those included in the target area 3 among these blocks are distinguished as analysis blocks. An area correction coefficient indicating the ratio of analysis blocks is required for each measurement mesh. In the present embodiment, the correspondence relationship between the target area 3 and the measurement mesh, the identification information indicating the analysis block included in the target area 3, and the area correction coefficient for each measurement mesh are stored in advance in the storage unit 15 as target area data 15D. Save it.

The unit precipitation data 15E is time-series data indicating precipitation in each analysis block. The calculation processing unit 16 calculates the precipitation data 15A of each measurement mesh by interpolating each other and saves it in the storage unit 15. Is done.
The integrated precipitation data 15F is time-series data obtained by integrating the unit precipitation data 15E of each analysis block for each integration period, and the calculation processing unit 16 converts the unit precipitation data 15E of each analysis block into the integration period data 15C. It is calculated for each integration period and is calculated and stored in the storage unit 15.

The correlation value 15G is data indicating a correlation value between the unit precipitation data 15E and the flow rate data 15B of each analysis block. The arithmetic processing unit 16 performs time series of the unit precipitation data 15E and the flow rate data 15B of each analysis block. Each change is subjected to pattern matching analysis, and each maximum correlation value is calculated and stored in the storage unit 15.
The runoff amount estimation data 15H is data indicating the runoff amount of rainwater that has flowed out from the target area 3 to the main waterway 2 in accordance with rainfall, and the arithmetic processing unit 16 uses the accumulated precipitation data 15F and the correlation value 15G of each analysis block. And is stored in the storage unit 15.

The arithmetic processing unit 16 includes a microprocessor such as a CPU and a DSP and its peripheral circuits, and implements various functional means necessary for the rainwater outflow estimation processing by reading the program 15P from the storage unit 15 and executing it.
As main functional means realized by the arithmetic processing unit 16, there are unit precipitation estimation means 16A, precipitation accumulation means 16B, correlation value calculation means 16C, and runoff amount estimation means 16D.

The unit precipitation estimation means 16A interpolates the precipitation data 15A of each measurement mesh stored in the storage unit 15, thereby performing unit precipitation data 15E indicating the time series change of precipitation in each analysis block. Are respectively calculated and stored in the storage unit 15.
The precipitation accumulation means 16B accumulates the unit precipitation data 15E of each analysis block stored in the storage unit 15 for each integration period of the accumulation period data 15C, thereby obtaining the accumulated precipitation data 15F in each analysis block. It has a function of calculating and storing in the storage unit 15.

  The correlation value calculation means 16C has a function of performing pattern matching analysis on the time series changes of the unit precipitation data 15E and the flow data 15B of each analysis block stored in the storage unit 15 for each integration period, and the analysis result. Based on this, the correlation value 15G of both is calculated and stored in the storage unit 15.

  For each analysis block, the outflow amount estimation means 16D has a function of calculating the sum of products of the correlation value 15G of each integration period stored in the storage unit 15 and the integrated precipitation data 15F, and the measurement mesh for each measurement mesh. A function for calculating the sum of product-sum calculation values of each analysis block in the computer, a function for calculating the rainwater runoff amount of the measurement mesh by adding the area correction coefficient of the measurement mesh to the total, and a function for each of the measurement meshes. The sum total of the amount of rainwater outflow is calculated and stored in the storage unit 15 as desired outflow amount estimation data 15H flowing out from the target area 3.

[Operation of First Embodiment]
Next, with reference to FIG. 2, the operation of the rainwater outflow estimation device according to the first embodiment of the present invention will be described. FIG. 2 is an operation flowchart showing the operation of the rainwater outflow estimation device according to the first embodiment of the present invention.
The arithmetic processing unit 16 of the rainwater outflow estimation device 10 starts the rainwater outflow estimation processing of FIG. 2 when the operation input unit 12 detects a start request operation of the rainwater outflow estimation processing by the operator. Hereinafter, a case will be described as an example in which the main waterway 2 is a sewage main line, and the amount of rainwater flowing out from the target area 3 of the target watershed 1 to the main waterway 2 via the junction J according to the rain is described.

The stormwater runoff estimation processing mainly includes unit precipitation estimation processing by the unit precipitation estimation means 16A, precipitation accumulation processing by the precipitation accumulation means 16B, correlation value calculation processing by the correlation value calculation means 16C, and runoff. There is an outflow amount estimation process by the amount estimation means 16D. Hereinafter, each of these processes will be described in detail.
At this time, it is assumed that the measurement data 6 is captured by the data input unit 11 and stored in the storage unit 15 at the start of the rainwater outflow estimation process. In this case, precipitation data 61 obtained by the weather observation system 4 is stored as precipitation data 15A, and flow data 62 obtained by the flow measurement system 5 is stored as flow data 15B.

  FIG. 3 is an explanatory diagram showing precipitation data. The precipitation data 61 consists of time-series data indicating precipitation changes measured at each point in the target basin 1, and the rainwater runoff estimation process uses data measured over a long period of several years. In the meteorological observation system, the observation area is generally divided into a grid, and precipitation data is provided for each measurement mesh. In the rainwater runoff estimation process, the precipitation of the measurement mesh corresponding to the target basin 1 is provided. Data 61 is used.

  FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram showing flow rate data. The flow rate data 62 is time-series data indicating the flow rate change of the main channel 2 measured at the measurement point P. In the rainwater outflow estimation process, data measured over a long period of several years is used. As in the present embodiment, when estimating the rainwater flowing out to the main channel 2 composed of a sewage main line, the sewage inflow measured by the flow measurement system 5 of the sewage treatment plant provided downstream of the main channel 2 is used as the flow rate. The data 62 may be used.

[Unit precipitation estimation processing]
First, the unit precipitation estimation process in the rainwater outflow estimation process will be described with reference to FIGS. FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing unit precipitation estimation processing. FIG. 6 is an explanatory diagram showing the relationship between the target area and the measurement mesh. FIG. 7 is an explanatory diagram showing the relationship between the measurement mesh and the analysis block.

  As described above, the precipitation data 61 obtained by the weather observation system 4 is data measured for each measurement mesh M set in advance by the weather observation system. In weather observation systems such as AMeDAS, precipitation data measured for each 1 km square measurement mesh is provided. For this reason, as shown in FIG. 6, when the difference between the complicated shape of the target area 3 to be estimated for the amount of rainwater outflow and the rectangular measurement mesh M is large and the precipitation data 61 is used as it is, An error caused by the difference occurs, and the estimation accuracy of the stormwater runoff amount decreases.

  In the present embodiment, as shown in FIG. 7, the measurement mesh M is further divided into 16 grid-like blocks B, and the amount of rainwater outflow is estimated using the precipitation amount for each block, that is, the unit precipitation amount. Thereby, since the unit precipitation data is obtained for each block of 250 m square, the shape error between the target area 3 and the block is reduced, and the estimation accuracy of the stormwater runoff can be improved. At this time, the boundary of the target area 3 may cross the block. For this reason, in this embodiment, the area occupancy rate of the target area 3 in each block is managed as the area correction coefficient in the target area data 15D, and the area correction coefficient is calculated when estimating the amount of rainwater outflow for each block. Use to correct.

  In this unit precipitation estimation processing, the unit precipitation data R (B) of each block B is estimated by interpolating the precipitation data obtained for each measurement mesh M. In addition, what is necessary is just to refer to the target area data 15D previously preserve | saved in the memory | storage part 15 for the correspondence information of these target areas 3 and a measurement mesh, and the identification information which shows the analysis block contained in the target area 3. FIG.

  In the unit precipitation estimation of FIG. 5, the unit precipitation estimation means 16 </ b> A of the arithmetic processing unit 16 first calculates precipitation data R (M (M) in each measurement mesh M in the target basin 1 from the precipitation data 15 </ b> A of the storage unit 15. ) Is obtained (step 100), and precipitation data R (M) in each measurement mesh M is interpolated with each other (step 101). At this time, since the precipitation data R (M) is time series data, the precipitation data R (M) in each measurement mesh M is interpolated with each other at the same time. For the interpolation calculation, for example, many calculation methods such as calculating contour line data using multivariable spline processing have been proposed, and a known calculation process may be used.

  Subsequently, the unit precipitation estimation means 16A refers to the target area data 15D in the storage unit 15 and confirms the analysis block B constituting the target area 3 among the blocks B (step 102), and the result of the interpolation calculation described above. Based on the above, the precipitation that changes in time series for each analysis block B, that is, the unit precipitation data R (B), is calculated and stored in the storage unit 15 as the unit precipitation data 15E (step 103). This completes the unit precipitation calculation process.

[Precipitation accumulation processing]
Next, with reference to FIGS. 8 to 10, the precipitation accumulation process in the rainwater outflow estimation process will be described. FIG. 8 is a flowchart showing precipitation accumulation processing. FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram showing unit precipitation data. FIG. 10 is an explanatory diagram showing accumulated precipitation data.

  The flow rate at the measurement point P provided on the downstream side of the main channel 2 substantially includes precipitation in the target area 3 on the upstream side. At this time, the flow rate at the measurement point P has a higher correlation with the accumulated precipitation amount obtained by integrating the precipitation amount in the target area 3 than the precipitation amount itself, and such a relationship is an estimation model for estimating the flow rate based on the precipitation amount, for example. (See, for example, Japanese Patent No. 3795775).

  In the present embodiment, the accumulated precipitation in the target area 3 is calculated, and the amount of rainwater outflow from the target area 3 is estimated using the relationship between the accumulated precipitation and the flow rate as described above. Therefore, before starting the precipitation accumulation process, for example, using the above estimation model, several accumulated precipitations that have a high correlation with the flow rate at the measurement point P are identified, and the accumulation used for calculating these accumulated precipitations. The period X may be stored in advance in the storage unit 15 as the integration period data 15C.

In the precipitation accumulation process of FIG. 8, the precipitation accumulation means 16B of the arithmetic processing unit 16 first acquires each accumulation period X from the accumulation period data 15C of the storage unit 15 (step 110). An unprocessed analysis block B for which the flow integration process has not been completed is selected (step 111).
Next, the precipitation accumulation means 16B acquires the unit precipitation data R (B) of the analysis block B from the unit precipitation data 15E in the storage unit 15 (step 112), and unit precipitation data for each accumulation period X. Accumulated precipitation data Ra (X, B) is calculated by integrating R (B), and sequentially stored in the storage unit 15 as integrated precipitation data 15F (step 113).

  The unit precipitation data R (B) in FIG. 9 includes data indicating a time series change in precipitation per unit time in the analysis block B, here, per hour. The integration period X is data indicating a period length of several hours to several tens of hours. In FIG. 10, n integration periods X1 to Xn are used. At this time, for example, the accumulated precipitation data Ra (X1, B, t) in the accumulation period X1 at time t is changed from the unit precipitation data R (B, t) at time t to the unit precipitation data R (B, T) at time t + X1. It is obtained by integrating up to t + X1).

In this way, for the selected analysis block B, accumulated precipitation data Ra (X, B) indicating a time-series change of accumulated precipitation is calculated for each accumulated period X, and all the analysis blocks B in the target area 3 are calculated. If the precipitation accumulation process has not been completed (step 114: NO), the process returns to step 111 to execute the precipitation accumulation process for the next unprocessed analysis block (steps 111 to 113).
When the precipitation accumulation process has been completed for all analysis blocks B in the target area 3 (step 114: NO), the series of precipitation accumulation processes is terminated.

[Correlation value calculation processing]
Next, a correlation value calculation process in the rainwater outflow estimation process will be described with reference to FIGS. 11 and 12. FIG. 11 is a flowchart showing the correlation value calculation process. FIG. 12 is an explanatory diagram showing the pattern matching analysis process.

As described above, the flow rate at the measurement point P has a higher correlation with the accumulated precipitation amount obtained by integrating the precipitation amount in the target area 3 than the precipitation amount itself. It can be understood that the components of the accumulated precipitation in each accumulated period X are included in a specific ratio.
In the present embodiment, the pattern matching analysis between the time-series accumulated precipitation data Ra (X, B) and the flow data W is performed as a ratio in which the accumulated precipitation component of each accumulated period X is included in the flow rate at the measurement point P. The correlation value obtained in is calculated.

In the correlation value calculation process of FIG. 11, the correlation value calculation unit 16C of the calculation processing unit 16 first acquires the flow rate data 15B from the storage unit 15 (step 120), and the precipitation flow integration process in the target area 3 is completed. An unprocessed analysis block B that has not been processed is selected (step 121).
Next, the correlation value calculation means 16C acquires the precipitation integrated data Ra (X, B) of the analysis block B from the unit precipitation data 15E of the storage unit 15 for each integration period X, and this precipitation integrated data Pattern matching analysis is performed on Ra (X, B) and the flow rate data W (step 122).

  In the pattern matching analysis process, as shown in FIG. 12, the accumulated precipitation data Ra (X, B) is sequentially shifted on the time axis, and correlation values with the flow rate W are obtained. Then, the maximum correlation value is selected as the correlation value C (T, P) of both, and sequentially stored in the storage unit 15 as the correlation value 15G (step 123).

At this time, the flow rate data 15B may include rainwater that has flowed out of the target basin 1 due to rain, as well as domestic wastewater and factory effluent that flows even when it is not raining over the entire target basin 1. There is.
Here, when such a non-rainy flow rate is small and within the allowable error range of the desired rainwater outflow estimation, the flow rate data 15B measured from the main channel 2 may be used.

  On the other hand, when the non-rainy flow rate is large, a rainy moisture increase flow rate obtained by removing the non-rainy flow rate from the measured flow rate may be used as the flow rate data 15B. It is known that water consumption varies depending on the season, temperature, day of the week, and holidays, but water consumption in non-rainy water, that is, non-rainy water, changes in approximately the same pattern every 24 hours. The amount of sewage can be estimated with high accuracy (for example, see Japanese Patent No. 3754267).

In this way, for the selected analysis block B, the correlation value C (X, B) between the accumulated precipitation data Ra (X, B) and the flow rate data W is calculated for each accumulation period X, and all the values in the target area 3 are calculated. If the correlation value calculation process has not been completed for the analysis block B (step 124: NO), the process returns to step 121 to execute the precipitation accumulation process for the next unprocessed analysis block (steps 121 to 123).
Further, when the precipitation accumulation process is completed for all analysis blocks B in the target area 3 (step 124: NO), the series of correlation value calculation processes is terminated.

[Outflow estimation processing]
Next, the outflow amount estimation process in the rainwater outflow amount estimation process will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 13 is a flowchart showing the outflow amount estimation processing.
In the present embodiment, the correlation value 15G is used as a ratio in which the component of accumulated precipitation in each accumulation period X is included in the flow rate at the measurement point P, and based on the product-sum operation value of the accumulated precipitation data 15F and the correlation value 15G. The amount of rainwater runoff from the target area 3 is estimated.

In the outflow amount estimation processing of FIG. 13, the outflow amount estimation means 16D of the arithmetic processing unit 16 first selects an unprocessed analysis block B for which the product-sum operation processing has not been completed from the target area 3 (step 130). The integrated rainfall Ra (X, B) for each integration period X in the analysis block is acquired from the integrated precipitation data 15F in the storage unit 15, and the correlation value C for each integration period X in the analysis block is obtained from the correlation value 15G. (X, B) is acquired (step 131).
Subsequently, the outflow amount estimation means 16D calculates the sum-of-products operation value Y (B) = ΣRa (Xi, B) of the accumulated precipitation Ra (X, B) and the correlation value C (X, B) in each accumulation period X. C (Xi, B) where Xi = X1 to Xn is calculated (step 132).

Next, the outflow amount estimation means 16D obtains the area correction coefficient S (B) of the analysis block B from the target area data 15D in the storage unit 15 (step 133), and the product sum with this area correction coefficient S (B). By correcting the calculation value Y (B), the rainwater outflow amount Q (B) = S (B) · Y (B) from the analysis block B is calculated (step 134).
In this way, the rainwater outflow amount Q (B) is calculated for the selected analysis block B, and when the product-sum operation processing has not been completed for all analysis blocks B in the target area 3 (step 135: NO) ), Returning to step 130, the product-sum operation processing for the next unprocessed analysis block is executed (steps 130 to 132).

  In addition, when the product-sum calculation process is completed for all the analysis blocks B in the target area 3 (step 135: NO), the outflow amount estimation means 16D obtains the sum total of the rainwater outflow amount QB) of each analysis block B). Thus, the estimated value Q of the stormwater runoff from the target area 3 is calculated and stored in the storage unit 15 as runoff estimation data 15H, and displayed on the screen by the screen display unit 13 as necessary, or the data output unit 14 Is output to an external device or a recording medium (step 136), and a series of outflow amount estimation processing ends.

  As described above, according to the present embodiment, the precipitation of each measurement mesh M provided in the arithmetic processing unit 16 by dividing the target area 3 into a grid pattern based on each predetermined accumulation period X by the precipitation accumulation unit 16B. By integrating the amount data 15A, for each integration period X, integrated precipitation data 15F indicating a time series change of the integrated precipitation in each measurement mesh M is calculated, and these integrated precipitation data are obtained by the correlation value calculation means 16C. 15F and time-series changes of the flow rate data 15B are respectively subjected to pattern matching analysis, and a correlation value 15G between the two is calculated for each integration period X with respect to each measurement mesh. A sum-of-products operation value of the data 15F and the correlation value 15G is calculated for each measurement mesh, and rain that flows out from the target area 3 based on the sum of these product-sum operation values And it calculates the estimated data of the runoff.

  This makes it possible to collect sewerage and sewerage from any target area according to the rainfall without collecting extremely many types of data, such as structure / equipment data on river channels and sewers, topographic data of the target areas, and data indicating water retention capacity of the land. It is possible to easily estimate the amount of rainwater that flows into a main channel such as a river in time series.

  Further, in the present embodiment, for each measurement mesh provided by dividing the target area 3 in a grid pattern, an integrated precipitation amount, a correlation value, and a product-sum operation value are calculated, and the obtained product-sum operation value is calculated. Estimated rainwater runoff from the target area 3 based on the total sum, so even if the precipitation of the entire target area 3 where the rainwater runoff is estimated cannot be obtained, the rainwater runoff in the target area 3 is estimated it can.

  In the present embodiment, the measurement mesh M is subdivided into blocks B, and the integrated precipitation, correlation value, and product-sum operation value are calculated for each analysis block B corresponding to the target area 3 and obtained. Based on the sum of product-sum operation values, the amount of rainwater outflow flowing out from the target area 3 may be estimated. Compared with the case of estimating the amount of rainwater outflow based on the product-sum operation value calculated using the measurement mesh as a unit. Thus, the shapes of the analysis block B and the target area 3 can be matched, an estimation error due to the difference in shape can be suppressed, and the amount of rainwater outflow can be estimated with high accuracy.

  Furthermore, after correcting the product-sum operation value calculated for each analysis block based on the area correction coefficient indicating the ratio of the target area 3 in the analysis block, the amount of rainwater outflow based on the sum of these corrected product-sum operation values Therefore, it is possible to estimate the stormwater runoff with extremely high accuracy as compared with the case where the stormwater runoff is simply estimated based on the product-sum operation value for each analysis block.

  In the present embodiment, as the flow rate data 15B, a rainy incremental flow rate indicating a difference between a rainy flow rate including rainwater flowing out from the target area 3 and a non-rainy flow rate may be used. The estimation error due to the flow rate can be suppressed, and the amount of stormwater runoff can be estimated with extremely high accuracy.

[Second Embodiment]
Next, a rainwater outflow estimation system using the rainwater outflow estimation device according to the second embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 14: is a block diagram which shows the structure of the rainwater outflow amount estimation system concerning the 2nd Embodiment of this invention.
In the first embodiment, the case where the accumulation period X of precipitation data is previously set in the storage unit 15 as the accumulation period data 15C has been described as an example. In the present embodiment, a stormwater outflow estimation system having a function of determining the integration period X used in the stormwater outflow estimation apparatus 10 according to the first embodiment will be described.

The rainwater outflow amount estimation system includes a water distribution amount prediction device 20, an inflow amount prediction device 30, and a rainwater outflow amount estimation device 10.
The storm water outflow estimation device 10 is composed of the storm water outflow estimation device described in the first embodiment. The accumulation period data 33 from the inflow amount prediction apparatus 30 is fetched from the data input unit 11 and stored as accumulation period data 15C. The function stored in the unit 15 and the distribution amount prediction data 24 from the distribution amount prediction device 20 are regarded as non-rainy flow data and taken from the data input unit 11, and the non-rainy flow data is subtracted from the flow data 62. The flow rate data 15B is stored in the storage unit 15.

  The water distribution amount prediction device 20 is composed of a known water amount prediction device (see, for example, Japanese Patent No. 375426), and the amount of water distributed to water consumers in the target basin 1 from the water purification facility through the water supply in the past, A set of time parameters (date and day of the week) and environmental parameters (temperature and weather) in the target basin 1 at that time is taken as actual data 22, and the water distribution amount based on the case base using the case-based modeling technology from the actual data 22 A function for creating the prediction model 21 and a new time parameter or environmental parameter indicating that the target basin 1 is not raining is taken in as the prediction condition 23 and corresponds to the prediction condition 23 with reference to the water distribution amount prediction model 21 The distribution amount is calculated and output as distribution amount prediction data 24 indicating the time-series change of the distribution amount during non-rainy periods in the estimation target period. And a function.

  The inflow amount predicting device 30 is a known inflow amount predicting device (see, for example, Japanese Patent No. 3795775), and from the target basin 1 into which the water amount predicting data 24 obtained by the water amount predicting device 20 flows into the sewage treatment facility. A set of non-rainfall flow data, flow data indicating the amount of sewage inflow into the sewage treatment facility measured during the estimation period, and meteorological data (precipitation and temperature) in the target basin 1 at that time Is obtained as history data 32, and an inflow prediction model 31 comprising a case base is created using a case base modeling technique from a set of rain incremental flow data and meteorological data, which is a difference between flow data and non-rain flow data. And an integration period data 33 that outputs the integration period of each integrated precipitation used as the main input variable of the inflow prediction model 31. The has.

[Operation of Second Embodiment]
Next, with reference to FIG. 15, the operation of the rainwater outflow estimation system according to the second embodiment of the present invention will be described. FIG. 15 is a flowchart showing an integration period selection operation in the rainwater outflow estimation system according to the second embodiment of the present invention.

  First, the distribution amount prediction device 20 creates a distribution amount prediction model 21 based on the actual data 22 obtained from the target basin 1 (step 200), and distributes it based on the prediction condition 23 indicating the case where the target basin 1 is not raining. With reference to the water amount prediction model 21, a water distribution amount indicating a time-series change in the water distribution amount for the non-rainy period in the estimation target period is derived and output as the water distribution amount prediction data 24 (step 201).

  FIG. 16 is an explanatory diagram showing a rainy incremental flow rate. As described above, the flow rate data 15B measured at the measurement point P includes rainwater that has flowed out of the target basin 1 due to rain, as well as domestic wastewater and factories that flow in even when it is not raining over the entire target basin 1. There may be wastewater. Therefore, the water distribution amount prediction model 24 indicates the time series change of the water distribution amount for the non-rainy time in the estimation target period using the prediction condition 23 that indicates the case where the target basin 1 is non-rainy. Non-rainy flow rate data is predicted, and the flow rate incremented during rainy weather from the difference between the non-rainy flow rate data and the flow rate data 62 measured at the measurement point P, that is, the rainy incremental flow rate corresponding to the amount of rainwater outflow from the target basin 1 Can be obtained.

  Next, in the inflow amount prediction device 30, by subtracting the distribution amount prediction data 24 obtained by the distribution amount prediction device 20, that is, the non-rainy flow amount data, from the flow rate data 15 B obtained at the measurement point P in the estimation target period. Rainy incremental flow data is calculated (step 202), and an inflow prediction model 31 is created based on the rainy incremental flow data (step 203). Then, the integration period of each integrated precipitation used as the main input variable of this inflow prediction model 31 is output as integration period data 33 (step 204), and a series of integration period selection operations ends.

  Since rainwater from the target basin 1 reaches the measurement point P through various routes including the main waterway 2, the flow rate data measured at the measurement point P has a time delay due to the capacity component of the route. And rounding action works. For this reason, compared with the precipitation data in the target basin 1, the accumulated precipitation data obtained by integrating the precipitation data has a higher correlation with the flow data, and the inflow prediction model 31 also has a greater effect on the predicted inflow. Accumulated precipitation data is often used as the main input variable that gives Therefore, these accumulated precipitation periods are useful for estimating the amount of rainwater runoff.

  Therefore, the stormwater runoff estimation device 10 fetches the integration period data 33 from the inflow prediction device 30 from the data input unit 11, stores it in the storage unit 15 as integration period data 15C, and uses it for integration of precipitation data 15A. Good. Further, the water distribution amount prediction data 24 from the water distribution amount prediction device 20 is regarded as non-rainy flow data and is taken in from the data input unit 11, and the non-rainy flow data is subtracted from the flow data 62, that is, the rain incremental flow is obtained as flow data. It may be used as 15B.

  As described above, in this embodiment, the distribution amount prediction device 20 refers to the distribution amount prediction model 21 created based on the actual data 22 obtained from the target basin 1, and distributes the amount of rainy time in the estimation target period. The distribution amount prediction data 24 indicating the time series change of the water amount is derived, and the inflow amount prediction device 30 is based on the rainy incremental flow data composed of the difference between the distribution amount prediction data 24 and the flow rate data 15B measured at the measurement point P. Since the inflow prediction model 31 is created and the integration period of each integrated precipitation used as the main input variable of the inflow prediction model 31 is output as the integration period data 33, it is useful for estimating the stormwater outflow. The integration period can be easily selected.

  In the present embodiment, the inflow prediction model 31 is created based on the history data 32 obtained in the target basin 1, and the integration period used in the integrated precipitation that is the main input variable is selected. It is possible to select an optimal integration period for estimating the amount of rainwater outflow, taking into account the rainwater outflow process inherent to the target watershed 1 due to the water channel configuration and topography of the target watershed 1.

It is a block diagram which shows the structure of the rainwater outflow amount estimation apparatus concerning the 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is an operation | movement flowchart which shows operation | movement of the rainwater outflow amount estimation apparatus concerning the 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows precipitation data. It is explanatory drawing which shows flow volume data. It is a flowchart which shows a unit precipitation estimation process. It is explanatory drawing which shows the relationship between a target area and a measurement mesh. It is explanatory drawing which shows the relationship between a measurement mesh and an analysis block. It is a flowchart which shows precipitation accumulation processing. It is explanatory drawing which shows unit precipitation data. It is explanatory drawing which shows integrated precipitation data. It is a flowchart which shows a correlation value calculation process. It is explanatory drawing which shows a pattern matching analysis process. It is a flowchart which shows an outflow amount estimation process. It is a block diagram which shows the structure of the rainwater outflow amount estimation system concerning the 2nd Embodiment of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows the integration period selection operation | movement in the rainwater outflow amount estimation system concerning the 2nd Embodiment of this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows rainy incremental flow data.

Explanation of symbols

  DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 ... Target basin, 2 ... Main channel, 3 ... Target area, 4 ... Meteorological observation system, 5 ... Flow rate measurement system, 6 ... Measurement data, 61 ... Precipitation data, 62 ... Flow rate data, 7 ... Runoff estimation data, DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 10 ... Rain water runoff amount estimation apparatus, 11 ... Data input part, 12 ... Operation input part, 13 ... Screen display part, 14 ... Data output part, 15 ... Memory | storage part, 15A ... Precipitation data, 15B ... Flow volume data, 15C ... Integration period data, 15D ... Target area data, 15E ... Unit precipitation data, 15F ... Integrated precipitation data, 15G ... Correlation value, 15H ... Runoff estimation data, 15P ... Program, 16 ... Calculation processing unit, 16A ... Unit precipitation Amount estimation means, 16B ... Precipitation amount accumulation means, 16C ... Correlation value calculation means, 16D ... Runoff amount estimation means, 20 ... Water distribution amount prediction device, 21 ... Water distribution amount prediction model, 22 ... Actual data, 2 ... Prediction conditions, 24 ... Water distribution amount prediction data, 30 ... Inflow amount prediction device, 31 ... Inflow amount prediction model, 32 ... History data, 33 ... Integration period data, P ... Measurement point, J ... Confluence, M ... Measurement mesh , B ... Analysis block.

Claims (5)

A stormwater runoff estimation device that estimates time-series changes in the amount of stormwater runoff from any target area to a main waterway such as a sewer or a river according to rainfall,
Precipitation data indicating the time-series change of precipitation in each measurement mesh provided by dividing the target area into a grid, and outflow from the target basin that is the basin of the main waterway including the target area to the main waterway A storage unit for storing flow rate data indicating a time-series change in the flow rate of water, and integration period data indicating a plurality of integration periods for the precipitation data;
By integrating the precipitation data of each measurement mesh based on each of the integration periods, integrated precipitation data indicating a time series change of the integrated precipitation in each measurement mesh is calculated for each integration period. Precipitation accumulation means;
Correlation value calculation means for performing pattern matching analysis on each of the time series changes of the accumulated precipitation data and the flow data, and calculating a correlation value between them for each measurement mesh for each accumulation period;
A product-sum operation value of the integrated precipitation data and the correlation value in each integration period is calculated for each measurement mesh, and a time series of stormwater outflows flowing out from the target area based on the sum of these product-sum operation values A rainwater runoff estimation device comprising: runoff estimation means for calculating runoff estimation data indicating a change. The rainwater runoff estimation device according to claim 1,
Units for calculating unit precipitation data indicating time-series changes in precipitation in each block provided by dividing each measurement mesh into a lattice by interpolating the precipitation data of each measurement mesh It further comprises precipitation calculation means,
The storage unit stores analysis blocks constituting the target area among the blocks,
The precipitation accumulation means calculates the accumulated precipitation data for each analysis block based on the unit precipitation data calculated for the analysis block,
The runoff amount estimation means calculates the sum-of-products calculation value for each analysis block, and calculates runoff amount estimation data indicating time-series changes in the amount of rainwater outflow flowing out of the target area based on the sum of these sum-of-products calculation values. A rainwater runoff estimation device characterized by calculating. The rainwater runoff estimation device according to claim 1,
The storage unit stores an area correction coefficient indicating a ratio of the target area in each analysis block,
The outflow amount estimation means corrects the product-sum operation value calculated for each analysis block with the area correction coefficient of the measurement mesh, and then flows out from the target area based on the sum of the corrected product-sum operation values. An apparatus for estimating stormwater runoff, which calculates runoff quantity estimation data indicating time-series changes in stormwater runoff. The rainwater runoff estimation device according to claim 1,
The apparatus for estimating a storm water outflow amount, wherein the flow rate data includes a rainy incremental flow rate indicating a difference between a flow rate during rainy weather including rainwater flowing out from the target area and a flow rate during non-rainy weather. In the computer of the stormwater runoff estimation device that estimates the runoff of rainwater flowing out from any target area to the main waterways such as sewers and rivers according to rainfall,
Precipitation data indicating a time series change of precipitation in the target area, and flow data indicating a time series change of a flow rate of water flowing out from the target water area, which is a watershed of the main water channel including the target area, to the main water channel, A storage step of storing, in a storage unit, integration period data indicating a plurality of integration periods for the precipitation data;
Accumulated precipitation data indicating a time-series change of accumulated precipitation in the target area for each accumulation period by accumulating the precipitation data based on each accumulation period of the accumulation period data by a precipitation accumulation unit. A precipitation accumulation step for calculating
A correlation value calculating step of performing a pattern matching analysis on the time series changes of the accumulated precipitation data and the flow rate data in each integration period by the correlation value calculating means, and calculating a correlation value between them for each integration period;
An outflow amount estimating step of outputting a product sum calculation value of the accumulated precipitation data and the correlation value of each accumulation period as estimated data of the stormwater outflow amount flowing out of the target area by the outflow amount estimating means; program.

Images