JP4692469B2 - Microgrid power generation control method - Google Patents

Microgrid power generation control method Download PDF

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JP4692469B2
JP4692469B2 JP2006301041A JP2006301041A JP4692469B2 JP 4692469 B2 JP4692469 B2 JP 4692469B2 JP 2006301041 A JP2006301041 A JP 2006301041A JP 2006301041 A JP2006301041 A JP 2006301041A JP 4692469 B2 JP4692469 B2 JP 4692469B2
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JP2008118806A (en
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世治 栗原
善起 鈴木
慎一 佐野
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Meidensha Corp
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本発明は、複数の分散電源と複数の負荷により構成されて特定地域のエネルギー供給を計画・制御するマイクログリッド（小規模電力供給網）に係り、特に気象予測を含めた電熱需要の予測を基にした発電制御方法に関する。   The present invention relates to a microgrid (small power supply network) configured by a plurality of distributed power sources and a plurality of loads to plan and control energy supply in a specific area, and particularly based on prediction of electric heat demand including weather prediction. The present invention relates to a power generation control method.

マイクログリッドでは、エネルギー利用効率が最大となるよう分散電源の運用を最適にコントロールするため、予め制御日の各負荷による電熱需要予測を行い、この予測に対して最適となる発電機運用計画を作成し、これに基づき発電制御を行う。   In the microgrid, in order to optimally control the operation of the distributed power supply so that the energy utilization efficiency is maximized, the electric power demand forecast for each load on the control day is made in advance, and the generator operation plan that is optimal for this forecast is created. Based on this, power generation control is performed.

負荷の電熱需要は、負荷ごとの曜日特性と気象条件によって変化する。このため、天気予報等の気象予測も含めて負荷の電熱需要を予測する方法が用いられる（例えば、特許文献１参照）。   The electric heat demand of the load varies depending on the day characteristics and the weather conditions for each load. For this reason, a method of predicting the electric heat demand of the load including weather prediction such as weather forecast is used (see, for example, Patent Document 1).

発電機運用計画を基にした発電制御処理フローを図３に示す。現在の時刻における予測需要量を発電機運用計画より取得し（Ｓ１）、現在の需要状況を取得し（Ｓ２）、現在需要量が予測需要量＋尤度以内の場合には現在時刻の発電機運用計画に従い発電機等の起動・停止・出力制御を行う（Ｓ３）。また、現在需要量が予測需要量＋尤度を超える場合には発電計画逸脱とし、逸脱時の制御を行う（Ｓ４）。この逸脱時制御には、システム毎に定めた処理（制御中止や発電固定など）を行う。   A power generation control process flow based on the generator operation plan is shown in FIG. The predicted demand amount at the current time is acquired from the generator operation plan (S1), the current demand situation is acquired (S2), and the current time generator is within the predicted demand amount + likelihood. In accordance with the operation plan, start / stop / output control of the generator and the like is performed (S3). Further, when the current demand exceeds the predicted demand + the likelihood, the power generation plan is deviated and control at the time of deviation is performed (S4). In this departure control, processing (control stoppage, power generation fixation, etc.) determined for each system is performed.

マイクログリッドの制御システム構成を図４に示す。このシステムはコンピュータシステム構成とされ、中央のコントロールシステムＣＳと複数の監視制御端末ＳＣを通信ネットワークで接続し、コントロールシステムＣＳと監視制御端末ＳＣ間で伝送される監視制御情報を基に分散電源ＤＧおよび負荷Ｌｏａｄをそれぞれ監視制御する。   FIG. 4 shows the configuration of the microgrid control system. This system has a computer system configuration, a central control system CS and a plurality of monitoring control terminals SC are connected by a communication network, and a distributed power source DG is based on monitoring control information transmitted between the control system CS and the monitoring control terminal SC. And the load load are monitored and controlled.

コントロールシステムＣＳによる発電計画作成処理は、自動計画処理部１が当日の天気予報・予想気温情報２を含めて過去の実績から需要量を予測し、予測需要量と各発電機（自家発電装置や燃料電池、自然エネルギーを利用した発電機）の発電能力や運転効率を考慮して、各発電機の運用計画３を作成する。   In the power generation plan creation process by the control system CS, the automatic plan processing unit 1 predicts the demand amount from the past results including the weather forecast / expected temperature information 2 of the day, and the predicted demand amount and each generator (in-house power generator or The operation plan 3 of each generator is created in consideration of the power generation capacity and operation efficiency of the fuel cell and the generator using natural energy).

発電制御は、発電機運用計画３から展開された制御情報４を取得し、この制御情報に従って発電制御部５が現在時刻に応じた発電制御指令（起動／停止／出力変更）を発生する。この発電制御指令は通信ネットワーク８を介して監視制御端末ＳＣに伝送され、発電機ＤＧを制御する。   In the power generation control, the control information 4 developed from the generator operation plan 3 is acquired, and the power generation control unit 5 generates a power generation control command (start / stop / output change) according to the current time according to the control information. This power generation control command is transmitted to the monitoring control terminal SC via the communication network 8 and controls the generator DG.

監視制御端末ＳＣは、発電機運転状態および負荷状態を通信ネットワーク８を介してコントロールシステムＣＳ側に伝送する。これら監視情報は計測情報受信部６で受信し、需給状態監視部７によって需給状態監視と発電機過負荷、負荷急変などの異常の有無を監視し、発電制御部５の発電制御指令の調整を行う。   The supervisory control terminal SC transmits the generator operating state and the load state to the control system CS side via the communication network 8. The monitoring information is received by the measurement information receiving unit 6, and the supply / demand state monitoring unit 7 monitors the supply / demand state and the presence / absence of abnormalities such as a generator overload and sudden load change, and adjusts the power generation control command of the power generation control unit 5. Do.

上記の自動計画処理部１において、負荷の電熱需要予測に気象情報としての天気予報を含める場合、図５に示すような電熱需要予測処理を行う。この処理では、発電計画作成日に類似する日（例えば、去年と同じ期間、先週と同じ曜日など）の電熱需要を過去実績とし、これに天気予報（雨、風、温度、湿度など）の違いを含ませたパターンマッチング等により電熱需要予測を行う。
特開２００２−２６２４５８号公報 In the automatic plan processing unit 1 described above, when a weather forecast as weather information is included in the electrical demand forecast of the load, an electrical demand forecast process as shown in FIG. 5 is performed. In this process, electric heat demand on a day similar to the power generation plan creation date (for example, the same period as last year, the same day as last week, etc.) is used as a past record, and the difference in weather forecasts (rain, wind, temperature, humidity, etc.) The electric heat demand is predicted by pattern matching etc.
JP 2002-262458 A

電熱需要予測に、気象情報として天気予報を含める場合、最近の天気予報では、地域を限定することで、より細かく精度の高い需要予測ができる。   When the weather forecast is included in the electric heat demand forecast as the weather information, the demand forecast can be made more finely and accurately by limiting the area in the recent weather forecast.

しかし、対象が自然現象であるため、天候の時間的なずれや予報自体が外れてしまう可能性も高い。図６は天気予報に対する実際の天候の時間的ずれの例を示し、天気予報が同じ「晴れのち曇り」であっても、ケース１では早い時間帯から曇りになり、ケース３では遅い時間帯から曇りになる。   However, since the object is a natural phenomenon, there is a high possibility that the time lag of the weather and the forecast itself will be missed. FIG. 6 shows an example of the time lag of the actual weather with respect to the weather forecast. Even if the weather forecast is the same “sunny and cloudy”, in case 1 it becomes cloudy from an early time zone, and in case 3 it is from a later time zone. It becomes cloudy.

電熱需要予測の精度は天候により大きく影響を受けるため、結局、天気予報の精度が発電機運用計画の精度となってしまう。特に、天候の時間的ずれの場合、ピーク時の需要量や変化パターンは合っているが、天候の時間的推移の違いにより電熱需要予測と実績値がほとんど合わないという結果になる。この例を図７に示し、同図の（ｂ）には天気予報のパターンが「曇り→晴れ→曇り」で、その時間帯予報と過去の実績から電熱需要を予測した場合であり、これに対して「曇り→晴れ→曇り」のパターンは同じであるが、天候の変化が時間的にずれてしまうと、図７の（ａ）に示すように、実際の予測需要量とは大きく異なってしまう。この状況で図３の処理を行うと、ほとんどが発電機運用計画の逸脱処理となってしまい、発電機運用計画の再調整が必要となるか、分散電源による高効率エネルギー供給ができなくなる。   Since the accuracy of the electric heat demand prediction is greatly affected by the weather, the accuracy of the weather forecast eventually becomes the accuracy of the generator operation plan. In particular, in the case of the time lag of the weather, the peak demand amount and the change pattern match, but due to the difference in the temporal transition of the weather, the electric heat demand prediction and the actual value hardly match. An example of this is shown in FIG. 7, where (b) in the figure shows a case where the weather forecast pattern is “cloudy → sunny → cloudy”, and electric demand is predicted from the time zone forecast and past results. On the other hand, the pattern of “cloudy → sunny → cloudy” is the same, but when the change in weather is shifted in time, as shown in FIG. End up. If the processing of FIG. 3 is performed in this situation, most of the processing becomes deviation processing of the generator operation plan, and it is necessary to readjust the generator operation plan, or high-efficiency energy supply by the distributed power supply cannot be performed.

本発明の目的は、気象予測を含めた需要予測から作成した発電機運用計画を基にしたマイクログリッドの発電制御に、発電機運用計画を変更することなく、気象予測と実際の気象変化の時間的ずれによる発電機運用計画の逸脱を減らすことができる発電制御方法を提供することにある。   The object of the present invention is to perform microgrid power generation control based on a generator operation plan created from a demand prediction including weather prediction without changing the generator operation plan and the time between the weather prediction and the actual weather change. An object of the present invention is to provide a power generation control method capable of reducing deviations in a generator operation plan due to misalignment.

本発明は、前記の課題を解決するため、気象予測を含めた予測需要量を基にして発電機運用計画を作成し、この発電機運用計画に従った発電機制御に、気象予測と実際の気象変化に時間的なずれが発生したときに、参照する発電機運用計画の時間的なずれ補正時間（前後Ｎ時間）を設け、現在の負荷状況から最適な発電機制御の実行時間を求めるようにしたもので、以下の構成を特徴とする。   In order to solve the above-mentioned problems, the present invention creates a generator operation plan based on a predicted demand amount including a weather forecast, and the generator control according to the generator operation plan includes a weather forecast and an actual When a time lag occurs in the weather change, a time lag correction time (N hours before and after) of the generator operation plan to be referred to is provided, and the optimum generator control execution time is obtained from the current load situation. It is characterized by the following configuration.

（１）コンピュータ処理手段によって、予め制御日の各電熱需要量を気象予測を含めて予測し、この電熱需要量の予測を基にして発電機運用計画を作成し、この発電機運用計画に従って発電機制御を行うマイクログリッドの発電制御方法において、
前記コンピュータ処理手段は、
現在時刻における予測需要量を発電機運用計画より取得する手順と、
現在需要量が予測需要量＋尤度以内の場合には現在時刻の発電機運用計画に従い発電制御を行う手順と、
現在需要量が予測需要量＋尤度を超える場合、現在時刻の前後Ｎ時間（ずれ補正時間）内に現在需要量とほぼ同一の需要量になる発電機運用計画があるか否かを検索する手順と、
この検索で、前後Ｎ時間内にほぼ同一の需要量の発電機運用計画が見つかった場合、発電機運用計画時刻を検索結果の時間とする手順と、
この時間での発電機運用計画に従った発電制御に移行する手順と、
を有することを特徴とする。 (1) The computer processing means predicts each electric heat demand on the control date in advance including the weather forecast, creates a generator operation plan based on the prediction of the electric heat demand, and generates power according to the generator operation plan. In the microgrid power generation control method for machine control,
The computer processing means includes
The procedure to obtain the predicted demand at the current time from the generator operation plan,
If the current demand is within the predicted demand + likelihood, the procedure to perform power generation control according to the generator operation plan at the current time,
If the current demand exceeds the predicted demand + the likelihood, a search is made as to whether or not there is a generator operation plan that has a demand that is substantially the same as the current demand within N hours before and after the current time (deviation correction time). Procedure and
In this search, when a generator operation plan having almost the same demand is found within N hours before and after, a procedure for setting the generator operation plan time as the search result time,
The procedure to shift to power generation control according to the generator operation plan at this time,
It is characterized by having.

以上のとおり、本発明によれば、気象予測を含めた予測需要量を基にして発電機運用計画を作成し、この発電機運用計画に従った発電機制御に、気象予測と実際の気象変化に時間的なずれが発生したときに、参照する発電機運用計画の時間的なずれ補正時間（前後Ｎ時間）を設け、現在の負荷状況から最適な発電機制御の実行時間を求めるため、発電機運用計画を変更することなく、気象予測と実際の気象変化の時間的ずれによる発電機運用計画の逸脱を減らすことができ、分散電源による高効率エネルギー供給を図ることができる。   As described above, according to the present invention, a generator operation plan is created based on a predicted demand amount including weather prediction, and the weather control and the actual weather change are applied to the generator control according to the generator operation plan. In order to obtain the optimal generator control execution time from the current load situation, a time shift correction time (N hours before and after) of the generator operation plan to be referred to is provided. Without changing the machine operation plan, the deviation of the generator operation plan due to the time lag between the weather forecast and the actual weather change can be reduced, and high-efficiency energy supply by a distributed power supply can be achieved.

図１は、本発明の実施形態を示す発電制御処理フローであり、コントロールシステムＣＳに設備されるコンピュータ処理手段（コンピュータ資源とこれを利用したソフトウェア）によって実現される。同図が図３と異なる部分は処理Ｓ５およびＳ６を追加した点にある。   FIG. 1 is a power generation control processing flow showing an embodiment of the present invention, which is realized by computer processing means (computer resources and software using the same) installed in the control system CS. This figure is different from FIG. 3 in that processes S5 and S6 are added.

処理Ｓ１〜Ｓ３では、従来と同様に、現在時刻における予測需要量を発電機運用計画より取得し（Ｓ１）、現在の需要状況を取得し（Ｓ２）、現在需要量が予測需要量＋尤度以内の場合には現在時刻の発電機運用計画に従い発電機等の起動・停止・出力制御を行う（Ｓ３）。   In the processes S1 to S3, as in the past, the predicted demand amount at the current time is acquired from the generator operation plan (S1), the current demand situation is acquired (S2), and the current demand amount is predicted demand amount + likelihood. If within the range, start / stop / output control of the generator and the like is performed according to the generator operation plan at the current time (S3).

ここで、現在需要量が予測需要量＋尤度を超える場合、従来の逸脱判定処理（Ｓ４）に移行する前に、現在時刻の前後Ｎ時間（ずれ補正時間）内に現在需要量とほぼ同一の需要量になる発電機運用計画があるか否かを検索する（Ｓ５）。この検索で、前後Ｎ時間内にほぼ同一の需要量の発電機運用計画が見つかった場合、発電機運用計画時刻を検索結果の時間とし（Ｓ６）、この時間での発電機運用計画に従って発電機等の起動・停止・出力制御に移行する（Ｓ３）。前後Ｎ時間内に現在需要量とほぼ同一の需要量の発電機運用計画が見つからなかった場合は従来と同じに発電計画逸脱時の制御に移行する（Ｓ４）。   Here, when the current demand exceeds the predicted demand + the likelihood, it is almost the same as the current demand within N hours (deviation correction time) before and after the current time before the shift to the conventional deviation determination process (S4). It is searched whether or not there is a generator operation plan that satisfies the demand amount (S5). In this search, when a generator operation plan having substantially the same amount of demand is found within N hours before and after, the generator operation plan time is set as the search result time (S6), and the generator is generated according to the generator operation plan at this time. The process proceeds to start / stop / output control such as (S3). If no generator operation plan having the same amount of demand as the current demand is found within N hours before and after, the process shifts to the control at the time of deviation from the power generation plan as before (S4).

したがって、本実施形態では、発電機運用計画に従って発電制御をする際に、参照する発電機運用計画の時間的なずれ補正時間（前後Ｎ時間）を設け、現在の負荷状況から最適な発電機運用の実行時間を求めることにより、天候変化の時間的ずれに伴う発電機運用計画の逸脱を減らすことができる。   Therefore, in the present embodiment, when performing power generation control according to the generator operation plan, a time lag correction time (N hours before and after) of the generator operation plan to be referred to is provided, and the optimum generator operation is determined from the current load situation. By obtaining the execution time of the generator, it is possible to reduce the deviation of the generator operation plan due to the time lag of the weather change.

具体的な処理例を図２に示す。同図の（ｂ）には天気予報のパターンが「曇り→晴れ→曇り」で、その時間帯予報と過去の実績から電熱需要を予測し、この予測を基にした発電計画であり、これに対して「曇り→晴れ→曇り」の天気予報パターンは同じであるが、図２の（ａ）に示すように、天候変化が時間的にずれてしまったとき、現在時刻「ｔ」の前後Ｎ時間内にほぼ同一の需要量になる発電機運用計画があるか否かを検索し、Ｎ時間内にほぼ同一の需要量になる発電機運用計画が見つかった場合、発電機運用計画上はその時間であると置き換える。すなわち、天候の時間的なずれに対する発電機運用時間のシフトを行う。   A specific processing example is shown in FIG. In (b) of the figure, the weather forecast pattern is “cloudy → sunny → cloudy”. Electricity demand is predicted from the time zone forecast and past results, and this is a power generation plan based on this forecast. On the other hand, the weather forecast pattern of “cloudy → sunny → cloudy” is the same, but as shown in FIG. 2 (a), when the weather change has shifted in time, N before and after the current time “t”. If there is a generator operation plan that has almost the same amount of demand in time, and a generator operation plan that has the same amount of demand in N hours is found, Replace with time. That is, the generator operating time is shifted with respect to the time lag of the weather.

なお、制御は繰り返し処理となり、前時刻にて補正した計画時間シフト量を次回の制御に引き継ぐ必要がある。このため、処理Ｓ１における予測需要量の取得には、現在の需要状況が発電機運用計画上のどの時刻かを示す「計画時刻」とし、この計画時刻は、発電制御の初回は現在時刻となり、２回目以降には前回の制御時刻＋前回からの経過時間とし、前回制御時に実施した計画の時間（計画時刻）を保存しておき、次回の制御時は計画時刻からの経過時間に対し同じ制御処理を行う。   Note that the control is an iterative process, and it is necessary to take over the planned time shift amount corrected at the previous time to the next control. For this reason, in the acquisition of the predicted demand amount in the process S1, the “plan time” indicating which time the current demand situation is on the generator operation plan is set, and this plan time is the first time of the power generation control, From the second time onwards, the previous control time + the elapsed time from the previous time are stored, and the planned time (planned time) implemented at the previous control is saved, and the same control is performed for the elapsed time from the planned time at the next control. Process.

本発明の実施形態を示す発電制御処理フロー。The power generation control processing flow which shows embodiment of this invention. 発電機制御時の発電計画調整の例（実施形態）。An example of power generation plan adjustment during generator control (embodiment). 従来の発電制御処理フロー。Conventional power generation control processing flow. マイクログリッドの制御システム構成図。The control system block diagram of a microgrid. 電熱需要予測に天気予報を含めた発電機運用計画の例。An example of a generator operation plan that includes a weather forecast in the electric heat demand forecast. 天気予報の時間的ずれの模式図。Schematic diagram of time lag of weather forecast. 天候の時間的ずれによる予測外れの例。An example of unforeseen due to the time lag of the weather.

符号の説明Explanation of symbols

ＣＳ コントロールシステム
ＳＣ 監視制御端末
ＤＧ 分散電源（発電機）
Ｌｏａｄ 負荷（需要）
１ 自動計画処理部
２ 天気予報、予想気温
３ 発電機運用計画
４ 制御情報
５ 発電制御部
６ 計測情報受信部
７ 需給状態監視部
８ 通信ネットワーク CS control system SC monitoring control terminal DG Distributed power supply (generator)
Load load (demand)
DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Automatic plan processing part 2 Weather forecast, predicted temperature 3 Generator operation plan 4 Control information 5 Power generation control part 6 Measurement information receiving part 7 Supply and demand state monitoring part 8 Communication network

Claims (1)

コンピュータ処理手段によって、予め制御日の各電熱需要量を気象予測を含めて予測し、この電熱需要量の予測を基にして発電機運用計画を作成し、この発電機運用計画に従って発電機制御を行うマイクログリッドの発電制御方法において、
前記コンピュータ処理手段は、
現在時刻における予測需要量を発電機運用計画より取得する手順と、
現在需要量が予測需要量＋尤度以内の場合には現在時刻の発電機運用計画に従い発電制御を行う手順と、
現在需要量が予測需要量＋尤度を超える場合、現在時刻の前後Ｎ時間（ずれ補正時間）内に現在需要量とほぼ同一の需要量になる発電機運用計画があるか否かを検索する手順と、
この検索で、前後Ｎ時間内にほぼ同一の需要量の発電機運用計画が見つかった場合、発電機運用計画時刻を検索結果の時間とする手順と、
この時間での発電機運用計画に従った発電制御に移行する手順と、
を有することを特徴とするマイクログリッドの発電制御方法。 The computer processing means predicts each electric heat demand on the control date including the weather forecast in advance, creates a generator operation plan based on the prediction of the electric heat demand, and controls the generator according to the generator operation plan. In the microgrid power generation control method to be performed,
The computer processing means includes
The procedure to obtain the predicted demand at the current time from the generator operation plan,
If the current demand is within the predicted demand + likelihood, the procedure to perform power generation control according to the generator operation plan at the current time,
If the current demand exceeds the predicted demand + the likelihood, a search is made as to whether or not there is a generator operation plan that has a demand that is substantially the same as the current demand within N hours before and after the current time (deviation correction time). Procedure and
In this search, when a generator operation plan having almost the same demand is found within N hours before and after, a procedure for setting the generator operation plan time as the search result time,
The procedure to shift to power generation control according to the generator operation plan at this time,
A power generation control method for a microgrid characterized by comprising:
JP2006301041A 2006-11-07 2006-11-07 Microgrid power generation control method Active JP4692469B2 (en)

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JP2001318970A (en) * 2000-05-12 2001-11-16 Nippon Steel Corp Method for controlling supply-demand of power, supply- demand controller of power, supply-demand control system of power and storage medium
JP2002084660A (en) * 2000-09-07 2002-03-22 Osaka Gas Co Ltd Control method for generator
JP2007028739A (en) * 2005-07-13 2007-02-01 Univ Of Ryukyus Method of planning adaptive start and stoppage of generator corresponding to change in load demand

Patent Citations (3)

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Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
JP2001318970A (en) * 2000-05-12 2001-11-16 Nippon Steel Corp Method for controlling supply-demand of power, supply- demand controller of power, supply-demand control system of power and storage medium
JP2002084660A (en) * 2000-09-07 2002-03-22 Osaka Gas Co Ltd Control method for generator
JP2007028739A (en) * 2005-07-13 2007-02-01 Univ Of Ryukyus Method of planning adaptive start and stoppage of generator corresponding to change in load demand

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