JP4482399B2 - Mortality automatic estimation method and mortality automatic estimation device - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to an automatic mortality estimation method for estimating a mortality rate based on the number of eggs laid by a large number of chickens bred in order to detect a serious disease in poultry farming at an early stage.

  In a poultry farm that lays laying hens, chickens are raised in units of thousands to tens of thousands in the same poultry house or cage, and it is practically difficult to manage one by one. Therefore, in general, the same poultry house or the same cage is regarded as one group, and the production amount, which is the total amount of egg laying, and the management of dead chickens are also managed in units of groups. Even if some dead chickens come out of the cage during a certain period, if there are several deaths due to reasons other than serious diseases such as infectious diseases that kill large numbers of chickens, it is an error range from the total number of birds, Simply remove dead chickens from the cage and do not replace them.

 Laying hens have a strong struggle instinct, and when a new chicken is put in a cage, a struggle with the chickens that had been there before will start. Since there is a tendency not to lay eggs during the struggle for ranking, the egg-laying rate is greatly reduced. This is another reason for not adding new chickens. Thus, one cage is composed of chickens of approximately the same age, and chickens spend most of their time in the same cage from birth to death.

 Now, laying hens generally start laying eggs 5 months after birth, and continue to lay eggs for about 16 months thereafter, but if they continue laying eggs, the egg-laying rate will gradually decrease, so artificially molting Need to be done. Molting is an act of urging wings to rest and resting the chicken body so that it can return to normal spawning. Chickens during the molting period cease to lay eggs. Chickens naturally become molted when placed in an environment where the room is darkened (no lighting) for only two weeks without food. However, there is a slight time difference between individual chickens before actually entering the molting state in such an environment. When artificially molting, chickens lay their eggs for about 1.5 months and then gradually return to normal egg production. There is also a slight time difference between individual chickens in terms of the laying period and how to return to the normal spawning rate.

In addition, there is a technique for identifying an animal that seems to be sick by measuring milk yield or the like as a physical state of livestock (cow) and comparing it with an expected value (Patent Document 1).
JP 2000-511778

  Now, at a poultry farm, a certain number of chickens die during the breeding period, including accidents such as suffocation caused by hooking a neck in a cage. So chicken farm managers will determine how many deaths they have to do to determine if they are usually caused by death or if they are caused by massive illness that causes many chickens to die (eg, bird flu). It is necessary to go to the poultry farm and check the chickens that have died to determine the mortality rate.

  However, at the poultry farm that raises a large number of chickens as described above, management is performed in units of tens of thousands of small-scale chickens and medium-scale, and every day, the number of dead chickens is confirmed by visually checking all cages. It was practically impossible to calculate the mortality rate and determine whether it was abnormal.

  In addition, by measuring the milk yield of the above-mentioned cow and comparing it with the expected value, the technology for identifying animals (individuals) that are likely to be sick is checked daily for each cow. In the case of chickens, it is impossible to measure the number of eggs and the egg weight, and the egg weight changes depending on the age. There was a problem that the egg weight data before molting could not be used during the molting recovery period, which is the period until it returns to the normal egg-laying state even after molting.

  In order to solve these problems, the present invention measures the total production amount and number of eggs laid by a large number of chickens (laying hens) bred in the breeding ground, and calculates the error rate with respect to the theoretical production amount of the week. The error rate is less than the specified value or after the specified number of days, the production volume measured every day (or the corrected production volume considering the error rate) and the age calculated with reference to the table Comparing the theoretical production amount with the marginal production amount calculated from the dangerous mortality rate, it is judged whether or not it is a dangerous mortality rate. A comparison is made between the theoretical production quantity at the age of weeks calculated with reference to the switched table after molting and the marginal production quantity calculated from the risk mortality rate to determine whether or not it is a risk mortality rate.

  Therefore, in a poultry farm that keeps a large number of chickens, the mortality rate is dangerous by predicting accurately according to changes in the overall production volume due to differences in the age of the chickens, and also the overall production volume after molting. Whether or not it is in a state can be automatically determined accurately.

  In the poultry farm where a large number of chickens are bred, the present invention accurately predicts mortality by adapting to changes in overall production due to differences in the age of chickens, and further to changes in overall production after molting. It is possible to accurately automatically determine whether or not is in a dangerous state.

  The present invention measures and records the total production amount and number of eggs laid by a large number of hens (laying hens) bred in the breeding ground, calculates and records the error rate with respect to the theoretical production amount at the age of the week. Is less than the specified value or after the specified number of days, the production volume measured every day (or the corrected production volume taking into account the error rate), the theoretical production volume of the week and the risk mortality calculated by referring to the table Compare the calculated marginal production amount to determine whether or not it is a dangerous mortality rate. Further, stop monitoring during molting and refer to the table after molting after the molting recovery period after the molting has ended. By comparing the theoretical production volume at the age of the week calculated and the marginal production volume calculated from the risk mortality rate, it was determined whether or not it was a risk mortality rate.

FIG. 1 shows a system configuration diagram of the present invention.
In FIG. 1, the processing device 1 executes various processes according to a program. Here, the production amount (egg) reading processing means 12, the error rate calculation processing means 13, the limit production amount calculation processing means 14, safety The area determination unit 15, the molting determination unit 16, the danger alarm transmission processing unit 17, the marginal production amount calculation unit 18 after molling stop, the safety region determination unit 19, and the tables 21 to 29 are configured.

  The production amount (egg) reading processing means 12 reads (for example, reads every day) the total production amount (eggs) of eggs produced by a large number of chickens raised in a poultry house.

  The error rate calculation processing unit 13 reads the production amount read by the production amount reading processing unit 12 (for example, daily production amount) and the current week of the chicken read from the week-old egg-laying rate table 22 and the week-old egg weight table 23. The error rate is calculated from the theoretical production amount calculated based on the egg-laying rate and egg weight of the age and the current production amount (see FIGS. 2 to 4 and FIG. 5).

  The marginal production amount calculation processing means 14 calculates the marginal production amount from the theoretical production amount of the current age of the chicken and the risk mortality (see FIGS. 2 to 4 and FIG. 5).

  The safety area determination unit 15 determines whether the current chicken production amount is within the limit production amount range calculated by the limit production amount calculation processing unit 14 (see FIGS. 2 to 4 and FIG. 5).

The molting determination means 16 determines whether a chicken is in the molting period (see FIGS. 2 to 4, 6, and 7).

  The danger alarm transmission processing means 17 transmits a danger alarm that the mortality rate is large when the current production amount of chickens is outside the limit production range (see FIGS. 2 to 4).

  The limit production amount calculation processing means 18 after molting rests from the theoretical production amount of the current week age of the chicken and the risk mortality rate during the molting recovery period after molting and during the period of returning to the normal spawning state. The limit production amount is calculated (see FIGS. 2 to 4, 5, and 7).

  The safe area determination means 19 determines whether the current chicken production during the molting recovery period is within the limit production range calculated by the limit production calculation processing means 18 after molting suspension (FIGS. 2 to 4). , And FIGS. 5 and 7).

  The production volume table 21 is a table that stores the daily production volume (eggs) of chickens (see FIG. 5D).

  The weekly egg-laying rate table 22 is a table in which the egg-laying rate for each age of the chicken is registered in advance (see (c) of FIG. 5).

  The week-old egg weight table 23 is a table in which the egg weight for each age of the chicken is registered in advance (see FIG. 5A).

  The error rate table 24 registers the error rate between the chicken's current production volume and the theoretical production volume (see (e) of FIG. 5).

  The mortality rate table 25 is a table in which mortality rates for each age of chicken are registered in advance (see FIG. 5B).

  The post-molting egg weight table 26 is a table in which the egg weight for each age of the chicken during the molting recovery period after molting is registered in advance (see (f) of FIG. 5).

  The post-molting egg-laying rate table 27 is a table in which the egg-laying rate for each age of the chicken during the molting recovery period after molting is registered in advance (see (h) of FIG. 5).

  The post-moulting error rate table 28 is a table that stores an error rate for each age of the chicken during the moult recovery period after moulting (see (i) of FIG. 5).

  The post-molting mortality table 29 is a table in which the mortality rate for each age of the chicken during the molting recovery period after molting is registered in advance (see (g) of FIG. 5).

  The equipment 3 is various equipment of a poultry farm that raises a large number of chickens. Here, the production amount of chicken eggs is measured and set in the production amount table 21.

  The terminal 4 is a terminal (for example, a personal computer) that is connected to the processing apparatus 1 and inputs various instructions and data, and displays the results.

The manager 5 is a manager (operator) who manages a chicken farm that keeps a large number of chickens.
Next, the operation of the configuration of FIG. 1 will be described in detail according to the order of the flowcharts of FIGS.

  2 to 4 are flowcharts for explaining the operation of the present invention. The process described here is started at an appropriate timing, for example, once a day. Moreover, the object of a process can be suitably matched with the management unit of a poultry farm, such as every poultry house and a cage, for example.

  In FIG. 2, S1 inputs the current breeding number (Cn) and the age of the week. In this case, the manager operates the terminal 4 and inputs the current breeding number Cn and the age of the chickens raised in the cage to be processed.

  S2 reads the egg-laying rate (Ln) and egg weight (En) at the current week age. This means that the current egg-laying rate Ln of the current chicken is read from the week-old egg-laying rate table 22 in FIG. 5C, and the egg weight En is determined as the week-old egg in FIG. Read from the double table 23.

  In S3, the theoretical production amount (Wn) is calculated from the current breeding number. This is calculated by substituting the current breeding number Cn input at S1 and the current egg-laying rate Ln and egg weight En read at S2 into the following (Equation 1) shown in FIG. calculate.

Wn = Ln × En × Cn (Equation 1)
S4 reads the actual production amount (Gn) (period is set by the system) from (n-1) day to (n-7) day, and calculates the daily average production amount (AVn). This is calculated by (Equation 2) shown in the drawing (that is, the sum of production amounts for 7 days, which is equivalent to one week (the numerator of (Equation 2)), and divided by 7), and the daily average production amount AVn. Is calculated.

7
AVn = (ΣGn−1) / 7 (Equation 2)
i = 1
In S5, an error rate (Rn) between the theoretical production volume (Wn) and the daily average production volume (AVn) is calculated. This is to calculate the error rate (Rn) by the following (Equation 3) shown in the figure. Then, it is registered (stored) in the error rate table 24 as an error rate for weeks of age and recorded.

Rn = AVn / Wn (Equation 3)
S6 reads today's production amount (Gn). This is because today's egg production amount Gn is written in the production amount table 21 from the equipment of the chicken farm in FIG.

  In S7, today's production amount is corrected with an error rate, and a corrected production amount (HGn) is calculated. This is based on the error rate Rn calculated in S5 described above (for example, the error rate Rn on the previous day) based on the current egg production amount Gn read in S6, and the corrected production amount HGn in the following (Equation 4). Calculate (ie, divide today's production amount Gn by the error rate to calculate a corrected production amount HGn corresponding to the theoretical production amount).

HGn = Gn / Rn (4)
In S8, the limit production (Fn) is calculated from the theoretical production and the risk mortality rate. This calculates the limit production amount Fn by the following (formula 5) shown in the figure.

Fn = Wn × (1-Dr) (Equation 5)
Here, Wn is the theoretical production amount Wn of today (weeks) calculated in the same manner as S3. As described on the right side of S8 in FIG.
・ Week age at last chicken count input: x
・ Current age: y
Then, the current dangerous mortality rate Dr is
Dr = Dy−Dx
It becomes. Dy and Dx are obtained by reading the mortality rates of the weekly ages y and x from the weekly mortality table 25 in FIG.

  In S9, it is determined whether HGn> Fn. This is to determine whether or not today's corrected production amount HGn calculated in S7 is equal to or greater than the limit production amount Fn calculated in S8, that is, in a safe region. In the case of YES, since today's egg production is above the limit production and determined to be normal, the process is terminated. In the case of NO, since it is determined that the egg production amount for today is below the limit production amount and is abnormal, the process proceeds to S10.

  If the production volume is unusually low, it is assumed that the number of eggs laid has decreased because a large number of chickens have died for reasons such as infectious diseases, or the number of eggs laid has decreased due to the period of molting. Therefore, whether or not it is during the molting period in the subsequent processing is considered.

  S10 refers to the molting table. This is because the flag of the molting table 30 is set to 1 (molting) and the status of the chicken of the day is in the molting or molting period, or the flag is set to 0 (normal) and the chicken of the current day is set. Read if the state of is not molting.

  In S11, it is determined whether the molting flag = 1 (morning). In the case of YES, since it has been found that molting or molting is being recovered, the process proceeds to S12. On the other hand, in the case of NO, since it has been determined that it is normal rather than molting, a danger alarm is transmitted in S18. This is because today's production volume (corrected production volume) is smaller than the limit production volume even though it is not molting, and it can be predicted that chickens died more than the death risk rate. Means to send.

  S12 performs the confirmation process of the egg-laying rate fall accompanying molting. This performs the confirmation process of FIG.

  Chickens that have finished molting gradually start laying eggs and return to normal egg-laying rates. Therefore, when looking at the production volume of the entire cage, if all the wings are in molting or close to this, the production amount is close to 0, and the number of chickens in the molting recovery period that has finished molting and started laying eggs will increase. As production increases, production gradually increases. And finally, it becomes the normal production amount of the corresponding age. Therefore, S13 confirms the egg-laying amount for confirming whether the egg-laying period has entered the molting recovery period, that is, whether egg-laying has been started in some chickens. This is done by referring to the production amount table 21 in which the production amount of eggs for each day is stored, and after the start of molting, the egg production amount Gm after the start of partial egg production is read and checked.

  S14 determines whether Gm> α. This is because part of egg laying is started after the start of molting confirmed in S13, and the egg-laying amount Gm is set to α (the egg-laying amount serving as a trigger for starting the mortality monitoring function from the start of egg-laying after molting, It is determined whether α> = O) is greater than or equal to. In the process of S14, the majority of chickens are still molting and the production volume is low (Gm <α), and it is difficult to estimate the mortality from the production volume, or after the molting is finished, egg-laying is started. As the number of chickens in the molting recovery period increases, the production volume gradually increases (Gm> α), and it is for judging whether the mortality rate can be estimated from the production volume. In the case of YES, since it has been found that the egg-laying amount (α) has reached the egg laying rate at which the mortality monitoring function is started after the molting and the mortality monitoring function is started, the operation of the mortality monitoring function during the molting recovery period is started after S15 Let

  In S15, the current number of chickens (Cm) is input.

  S16 reads the egg-laying rate (Lm) and egg weight (Em) of the current age. This is because the egg laying rate Lm during the molting recovery period of the current age of the chicken that has resumed the mortality monitoring function during the molting recovery period is read from the weekly egg-laying rate table 27 of FIG. The subsequent egg weight En is read from the week-old egg weight table 26 in FIG.

  In S17, the theoretical production amount (Wm) is calculated from the current breeding number. This is the following (Equation 11) shown below for the current breeding number Cm input during S15 and the egg-laying rate Lm and egg weight Em after the molting of the current week read in S16. Substituting to calculate the theoretical production volume Wm.

Wm = Lm × Em × Cm (Equation 11)
S21 of FIG. 4 reads today's production amount (Gm) and the number of eggs laid (Km). In FIG. 1, the production amount Gm and the egg production number Km during the egg molting recovery period of the day are written in the production amount table 21 from the equipment of the chicken farm in FIG.

S22 calculates today's egg-laying rate (L'm) and egg weight (E'm).
L'm = Km / Cm
E'm = Gm / Km (Equation 12)
S23 performs return confirmation processing to normal egg-laying. This performs the process of FIG. 6B described later.

In S24, an error rate (Rm) between the theoretical production amount (Wn) and the current production amount (Gm) is calculated. Rm = Gm / Wm (Equation 13)
Then, the calculated error rate Rm is registered and recorded in the week age column of the post-muffling error rate table 28.

  In S25, today's production volume is corrected by the previous day error rate, and a corrected production volume (HGm) is calculated. This is based on the error rate Rm calculated in S24 described above (for example, the error rate Rm of the previous day) based on the current egg production amount Gm read in S21. calculate. That is, today's production amount Gm is divided by the error rate, and the corrected production amount HGm after molting corresponding to the theoretical production amount is calculated.

HGm = Gm / Rm−1 (Equation 14)
In S26, the limit production amount (Fm) is calculated from the theoretical production amount and the risk mortality rate. This is to calculate the limit production amount Fn by the following (Equation 15) shown in the figure.

Fm = Wm * (1-D'r) = Lm * Em * Cm * (1-D'r) (Formula 15)
Here, Wm is the theoretical production amount (Wm = Lm × Em × Cm) during the molting recovery period of today (weeks) calculated in the same manner as S3. The risk mortality rate is
・ Week age at the time of last chicken number input during molting recovery period: x
・ Current age during molting recovery period: y
Then, the current risk mortality D'r during the molting recovery period is
D′ r = D′ y−D′x
It becomes. D′ y and D′ x are obtained by reading the mortality rates of weeks y and x from the weekly mortality table 29 during the molting recovery period of FIG.

  S27 determines whether HGm> Fm. This is to determine whether today's corrected production amount HGm during the molting recovery period calculated in S25 is equal to or greater than the limit production amount Fm during the molting recovery period calculated in S26, that is, a safe region. In the case of YES, since today's egg production during the molting recovery period is equal to or greater than the limit production, it is determined to be normal, and the process ends. In the case of NO, since the production volume is determined to be abnormal because the production volume is equal to or less than the limit production volume, a danger alarm is issued in S28. This is because today's production volume (corrected production volume) during the molting period is restored. Since it is smaller than the marginal production during the period and it can be predicted that a large number of chickens have died more than the risk mortality rate, this means that a risk alarm for the occurrence of a large number of chicken deaths is transmitted.

  As described above, the total production amount and number of eggs laid by a large number of chickens (laying hens) bred in the breeding ground were measured, and the error rate with respect to the theoretical production amount of the relevant week was calculated and recorded. Calculated from the production volume measured every day (or the corrected production volume considering the error rate) smaller than the specified value or after the specified number of days, and the theoretical production volume and risk mortality calculated by referring to the table To determine whether or not it is a dangerous mortality by comparing with the marginal production volume, and further, the monitoring is stopped during molting and the age calculated by referring to the table after molting after switching It is possible to determine whether or not it is a dangerous mortality rate by comparing the theoretical production amount of the above and the marginal production amount calculated from the dangerous mortality rate. As a result, in poultry farms that house a large number of chickens, death is predicted accurately by adapting to changes in overall production due to differences in the age of chickens, and also to changes in overall production during the molting period. It is possible to automatically determine whether or not the rate is in a dangerous state.

FIG. 5 shows an example table of the present invention.
(A) of FIG. 5 shows an example of a week-old egg weight table (normal time). The illustrated week-old egg weight table 23 is for a normal time (when it is not molting), and is registered in advance in association with the following information illustrated.

・ Week age:
-Egg weight (eg g):
・ Other:
Here, the age of the week is the number of weeks since the chicken was born. The egg weight is the weight of one egg, and the value varies depending on the age, and the average of each past age of the actual measurement data of many past chickens is registered.

  As described above, by registering the egg weight in association with the age of the week, the theoretical production amount Wn, Wm is calculated based on the egg weight, further the egg-laying rate Ln, Lm, and the number of chickens Cn, Cm. (See (Expression 1), (Expression 11), etc.).

  FIG. 5B shows a weekly mortality rate (maximum value when no disease occurs) table (normal time). The illustrated weekly mortality table 25 is for a normal time (when not molting) and is registered in advance in association with the following information illustrated.

・ Week age:
Standard death rate (%):
・ Other:
Here, the standard mortality rate is an average mortality rate at the age of the week (every day or every week).

  As described above, by registering the mortality rate in association with the age of the week, it becomes possible to calculate the limit production amount based on the mortality rate in (Equation 5) and (Equation 15).

  (C) of FIG. 5 shows an example of a week-old egg-laying rate table (normal time). The illustrated weekly egg-laying rate table 22 is a normal one (when not molting) and is registered in advance in association with the following information shown.

・ Week age:
・ Oviposition rate:
・ Other:
Here, the egg-laying rate is the average number of eggs laid per chicken, and the overall theoretical production (Wn, Wm) is calculated by multiplying the egg-laying rate by the egg weight and the number of chickens. (Refer to (Formula 1) and (Formula 11)).

  As described above, by registering the egg-laying rate in association with the age of the week, the theoretical production amount Wn, Wm is calculated based on the egg-laying rate, and further, the egg weight En, Em, and the number of chickens Cn, Cm. (See (Expression 1), (Expression 11), etc.).

  FIG. 5D shows an example of the production volume table. The illustrated production volume table 21 is a table that measures and stores (registers) the production volume and the number of eggs laid by the chickens bred by the equipment provided in the chicken farm shown in FIG. The following information is registered in association with each other.

·date:
・ Production volume:
・ Other (number etc.):
Here, the date is a date such as the year. The production amount is the production amount (weight) of the whole egg. In addition, the number of eggs produced is registered.

  FIG. 5E shows an example of an error rate table (normal time). The illustrated error rate table 24 is calculated and registered in (Formula 3) of S5 in FIG. 2 described above, and registers (stores and records) the following information in association with each other. is there.

・ Date (weeks):
·Error rate:
・ Other:
Here, the error rate is a value (error rate Rn) for each date calculated in (Formula 3) of S5 in FIG.

  FIG. 5 (f) shows an example of an egg weight table after molting. The egg weight table 26 after molting shown in the figure is an egg weight table 26 during the molting recovery period, and is registered in association with the following information shown in the figure.

・ Week after molting:
-Egg weight (g):
・ Other:
Here, the week after molting is the number of weeks that have elapsed since molting began.

  (G) of FIG. 5 shows an example of a postmortem mortality rate (maximum value when no disease occurs) table. The illustrated post-morning mortality table 29 is a chicken mortality table during the molting recovery period, and is registered in association with the following information illustrated.

・ After egg laying (Sun):
Standard death rate (%):
・ Other:
Here, “after egg-laying start (day)” is the day when egg-laying is started (resume) after molting. The standard mortality rate is the standard mortality rate during the molting period.

  (H) of FIG. 5 shows an example of the post-molt spawning rate table. The illustrated post-molting spawning rate table 27 is a spawning rate table after starting spawning during the molting recovery period, and is registered in association with the following information illustrated.

・ After egg laying (Sun):
・ Oviposition rate:
・ Other:
(I) of FIG. 5 shows an example of an error rate table after molting. The illustrated post-molling error rate table 28 is an error rate table during the molting recovery period, and is registered in association with the following information illustrated.

・ Date after molting:
·Error rate:
・ Other:
FIG. 6 shows a flowchart (details) for explaining the operation of the present invention.

  (A) of FIG. 6 is a detailed flowchart of S12 of FIG. 3 described above, and shows confirmation processing of a decrease in the egg-laying rate accompanying molting.

  In FIG. 6A, S31 reads the production amount. This reads the production amount Gm of today and the production amount Gm-1 of the previous day from the production amount table 21 in FIG.

  S32 determines whether Gm <Gm-1. This is because when a chicken is placed in an environment where the light of the breeding farm is turned off and feeding is stopped (water is given), molting begins in about one week and the egg-laying rate gradually decreases. During the specified period after the start of molting, chickens that are still laying eggs and chickens that have entered the molting state and whose egg-laying rate has declined are mixed in the cage. The amount becomes smaller than yesterday's production amount (YES in S32, S33). If the production volume has decreased, the process returns to S31. When all chickens start molting, the state of production is almost zero (Gm is almost zero), and it can be determined that the egg-laying suspension period has started (NO in S32, S34).

  As described above, starting to turn off the lights and stopping feeding, the egg production amount Gm of today continues to decrease from the egg production amount Gm-1 of yesterday, and when it becomes almost zero, it is determined that molting of all chickens starts. Is possible. After it is determined that the egg-laying suspension period has been entered, the process proceeds to S13 in FIG. 2 which is a process for determining whether or not the molting recovery period has been entered.

  FIG. 6B is a detailed flowchart of S23 of FIG. 4 described above, and shows normal management confirmation return processing for confirming whether or not the normal egg-laying state has been returned from the molting recovery period.

  In (b) of FIG. 6, S41 reads the standard egg-laying rate (Lm) of an applicable age. This reads the standard egg-laying rate Lm of the current age of the chicken from the week-old egg-laying rate table 22.

S42 compares with the calculated egg-laying rate (L'm).
In S43, it is determined whether L′ m≈Lm. this is. The standard egg-laying rate Lm read in S41 is the egg-laying rate calculated in S42 (L'm (calculated from the number of eggs spawned in S22 in FIG. 4 described above and the total number of chickens Cm of the day) (calculated by Expression 12)). It is determined whether it has recovered to almost the same level. In the case of YES, it is determined in S44 to return to normal egg laying (end of the molting recovery period), the flag of the molting table 30 is set to zero (0) in S45, and the process returns to S4 in FIG. On the other hand, in the case of NO in S43, it is determined that it is still in the molting recovery period, and the processing continues using the table for molting recovery period after S24 in FIG.

  As described above, when the current egg-laying rate L′ m is calculated and the egg-laying rate L′ m is compared with the standard egg-laying rate Lm of the age read from the week-old egg-laying rate table 22, It is possible to determine that the molting recovery period has ended.

  FIG. 7 shows an example of a spawning rate graph during the molting period of the present invention. In the illustrated graph, the vertical axis represents the egg-laying rate, and the horizontal axis represents the date (week age).

  In FIG. 7, (1) represents the date when the lighting was turned off and the fasting started. Represents the date when the light was turned off and the fasting started (with water). In such an environment, chicken molting is started and molting begins in approximately one week, and the egg-laying rate gradually decreases accordingly. This corresponds to the period between (1) and (2), and the process of S12 in FIG. 3 and (a) in FIG. 6 is a process for determining whether the determination target cage corresponds to this period. It is. Until all chickens start molting, today's production is smaller than yesterday's production (NO in S32, S33), and when all chickens begin molting, production is almost zero (Gm is almost zero) and egg laying It becomes a rest period (date of (2)).

  (2) represents the day when egg laying was suspended in almost all wings. And the whole laying egg laying period generally lasts from 1.5 months to 2.0 months. In this specification, the period between (1) and (3), which is molting and the egg-laying suspension period due to molting, may be expressed as molting.

  (3) represents the day when the chickens that finished molting started laying eggs gradually. The period between (3) and (4) corresponds to the molting recovery period, and the egg-laying rate is restored to the normal state. In this specification, this molting recovery period may be expressed as after molting. The processes of S13 and S14 in FIG. 4 are processes for determining whether the determination target cage enters this period and whether the egg-laying amount has increased to such an extent that the mortality rate can be determined based on the production amount.

  (4) represents the day when all the eggs were laid and became almost equal to the standard egg-laying rate Lm. The process of S23 in FIG. 4 is a process for determining whether or not the determination target cage is in the state (4).

  As described above, a large number of chickens are raised in the breeding ground, turned off, started fasting (water is given), and after about 1.5 months to 2.0 months, the molting has been completed, and all the birds have started laying eggs. Thus, the egg-laying rate is restored to the standard egg-laying rate. Therefore, before the start of molting and after the end of molting, according to the flow charts of FIGS. It is possible to automatically issue an alarm for the death of a large number of chickens based on the production volume.

(Appendix 1)
In the automatic mortality estimation method that estimates the mortality based on the number of eggs laid by many chickens being raised,
A step of reading the egg-laying amount for each predetermined period of a large number of chickens being raised;
Reading the egg laying rate, egg weight of the chicken from the first table;
Calculating the theoretical production based on the read egg-laying rate and egg weight;
Calculating a marginal production from the calculated theoretical production and mortality risk;
A method for automatically estimating a mortality rate based on an egg-laying amount, comprising: determining that the mortality rate is large when the read egg-laying amount falls below the calculated limit production amount.

(Appendix 2)
The mortality rate automatic estimation based on the egg-laying amount according to claim 1, wherein the mortality rate is determined to be large when the corrected production amount obtained by correcting the read egg-laying amount with an error rate falls below the calculated limit production amount Method.

(Appendix 3)
The predetermined period is a predetermined day or a week, and the processing is performed by calculating an average of each day of the predetermined day or a week. Estimation method.

(Appendix 4)
The period from the time when many of the bred chickens are molted until they return to the normal egg-laying state, the table for reading the egg-laying rate and egg weight at the current age of the chicken from the first table to the second The automatic mortality estimation method according to the amount of spawning according to any one of appendix 1 to appendix 3, wherein the table is switched to a table.

(Appendix 5)
When the number of eggs laid during the predetermined period of time during which the large number of chickens in breeding are in or after molting and return to the normal egg-laying state exceeds a predetermined value, the current age of the chicken The method for automatically estimating the mortality rate based on the egg-laying amount according to any one of appendix 1 to appendix 4, wherein the table for reading the egg-laying rate and egg weight is switched from the second table to the first table.

(Appendix 6)
In an automatic mortality estimation device that estimates mortality based on the number of eggs laid by many chickens being raised,
Means for reading the egg production for a given period of a large number of chickens being bred;
Means for reading the chicken's current egg-laying rate, egg weight from the table;
Means for calculating theoretical production based on the read egg-laying rate and egg weight;
Means for calculating marginal production from the calculated theoretical production and mortality risk;
An apparatus for automatically estimating the mortality rate based on the egg-laying amount, comprising: means for determining that the mortality rate is large when the read egg-laying amount falls below the calculated limit production amount.

  In the poultry farm where a large number of chickens are raised, the present invention is adapted to the change in the overall production amount due to the difference in the age of the chickens, and further to the change in the overall production amount after molting, based on the production amount, It is possible to accurately determine whether the rate is in a dangerous state.

It is a system configuration diagram of the present invention. It is operation | movement explanatory flowchart (the 1) of this invention. It is operation | movement description flowchart (the 2) of this invention. It is operation | movement description flowchart (the 3) of this invention. It is an example table of this invention. It is operation | movement description flowchart (detail) of this invention. The example of a spawning rate graph of the molting period of this invention is shown.

Explanation of symbols

1: processing device 12: production amount reading processing means 13: error rate calculation processing means 14: limit production amount calculation processing means 15: safety area determination means 16: molting determination means 17: danger alarm transmission processing means 18: limit after molting suspension Production amount calculation processing means 19: safety area determination means 21: production amount table 22: week-old egg-laying rate table 23: week-old egg weight table 24: error rate table 25: mortality rate table 26: egg weight table after molting 27: molting Subsequent egg-laying rate table 28: post-molling error rate table 29: post-molling postmortem rate table 30: molting table 3: facility equipment 4: terminal 5: administrator

Claims (4)

In the automatic mortality estimation method for estimating the mortality of chickens executed by a computer ,
A step of reading the egg-laying amount of each of a plurality of chickens for a predetermined period;
The egg weight corresponding to the current age of the chicken from the age-of-week egg weight table storing the chicken age and egg weight in association with each other, and the egg-laying rate indicating the average number of eggs laid per week and the number of eggs And reading each egg-laying rate corresponding to the current age of the chicken from the week-old egg-laying rate table that stores
Calculating a theoretical production amount (number of chickens x egg production rate x egg weight ) based on the read egg production rate and egg weight;
Calculating a critical production amount (Fn) from the calculated theoretical production amount and the risk mortality rate calculated from the mortality rate associated with the age of weeks ;
And a step of determining that the mortality rate of the chicken is large when the read egg-laying amount falls below the calculated limit production amount. The period until the plurality of chickens are molted and return to the normal egg-laying state is a table that reads the egg weight of the current age of the chicken from the week-old egg weight table, after the chicken molting begins. A table for reading the egg-laying rate from the week-old egg-laying rate table, the number of days since the start of egg-laying and the average egg-laying rate per egg 2. The mortality rate automatic estimation method according to claim 1 , wherein switching is made to a post-mature egg-laying rate table storing the egg-laying rate indicating the number in association with each other . When the plurality of chickens are in the period of molting or after molting and return to the normal egg-laying state and the egg-laying amount in the predetermined period exceeds a predetermined value, the current age of the chicken A table for reading the egg weight is switched from the egg weight table after molting to the weekly egg weight table, and a table for reading the egg-laying rate is switched from the egg-laying rate table after molting to the weekly egg-laying rate table. The mortality rate automatic estimation method according to claim 2. In an automatic mortality estimation device that estimates chicken mortality,
  Means for reading the amount of egg laying of a plurality of chickens for each predetermined period;
  A week-old egg weight table for storing the chicken age and egg weight in association with each other;
  A week-old egg-laying rate table that stores the age of chickens and the egg-laying rate indicating the average number of eggs laid per bird;
  Means for reading the egg weight corresponding to the current age of the chicken from the age-old egg weight table, and the egg-laying rate corresponding to the current age of the chicken from the week-old egg-laying rate table;
  Means for calculating a theoretical production amount (number of chickens × spawning rate × egg weight) based on the read egg-laying rate and egg weight;
  Means for calculating the limit production (Fn) from the calculated theoretical production and the risk mortality calculated from the mortality associated with the age of the week;
  Means for determining that the mortality rate of the chicken is large when the read egg-laying amount falls below the calculated limit production amount;
An automatic mortality estimation device.

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