JP4173701B2 - Winter lightning lightning forecasting method and forecasting device - Google Patents

Description

[0001]
BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION
The present invention relates to a winter thunder / lightning prediction method and prediction device, and more particularly to a winter thunder / lightning prediction method and prediction device for predicting lightning strikes on power facilities such as power transmission lines on the coast of the Sea of Japan in winter.
[0002]
[Background Art and Problems to be Solved by the Invention]
Winter thunders occur in Akita Prefecture to Hyogo Prefecture from the coastline of 30km to 40km from the coastline on the Sea of Japan from November to March of the following year. Has not been analyzed and is known to be extremely difficult to predict. In particular, there are several nuclear power plants on the coast of the Sea of Japan from the Kinki region to the Hokuriku region. In order to transmit the generated power to the Keihanshin district, ultra high voltage transmission lines are laid in several routes. ing. An extra high voltage transmission line has an overhead ground wire installed at the top of the high voltage pylon for lightning protection. Even if a lightning strike occurs on the overhead ground wire, lightning strike countermeasures are taken so that it does not affect other power lines. Has been.
[0003]
Even if summer lightning occurs due to such an overhead ground line, the high-voltage power line is less affected, and the occurrence of summer lightning is relatively easy to predict by weather radar, etc. Measures are taken to avoid power transmission routes in areas where power generation is predicted and to transmit power through other routes.
[0004]
On the other hand, the occurrence of winter lightning is difficult to predict, and the current that flows during lightning strikes may be more than ten times that of summer lightning. The strands will blow out instantly, or the ultra high voltage transmission line will cause a two-line multiphase accident, which will cause a great deal of damage. For this reason, conventionally, methods of using LLS (Lighting Location System: a device that detects only lightning strikes) or predicting the occurrence of winter lightning have been studied, but sufficient prediction has not yet been made. It is a fact.
[0005]
SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION Therefore, a main object of the present invention is to provide a winter lightning lightning prediction method and a prediction device that can predict the occurrence of winter lightning by processing observation data obtained by a weather radar.
[0007]
[Means for Solving the Problems]
This aspect of the present invention, a method for predicting the lightning of winter lightning, by using the data of when the winter lightning, which is orientation in the past has occurred, to investigate the group data when the Japan Meteorological Agency to perform numerical weather prediction issued set the threshold at the time of lightning, present in the radar echo reflection intensity and cloud tops in altitude during lightning threshold from a predetermined plurality of cloud in altitude of observation items of the weather radar at the lightning time It is characterized by predicting the occurrence of winter lightning depending on whether or not to do so.
[0008]
Further, the base data when the Meteorological Agency performs a numerical forecast is meteorological data composed of a combination of elements in a region surrounded by a predetermined latitude and longitude.
[0009]
The lightning prediction is characterized in that a predetermined area within an area surrounded by a predetermined latitude and longitude is determined as a regional allowable range.
[0010]
In addition, the lightning prediction is determined with a predetermined temporal tolerance.
[0011]
Furthermore, another invention is a device for predicting the occurrence of winter lightning using weather radar observation data, a database for storing data when a winter lightning that has been standardized in the past, Investigate the basic data for forecasting and set the threshold value at the time of lightning, and the reflection intensity from the cloud and the cloud top height at the predetermined multiple altitudes of the observation items of the weather radar at the time of the lightning And a prediction means for predicting the occurrence of winter lightning depending on whether or not it is within the threshold value at the time of lightning.
[0012]
DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION
FIG. 1 is a position diagram of a lightning prediction region used in the embodiment of the present invention. The location map shown in Fig. 1 is a region surrounded by latitudes from 35 ° 00 'to 36 ° 12' north latitude and from 134 ° 45 'to 136 ° 45' The rectangular twelve mesh regions are prediction regions, and the broken-line circles indicate the observation regions of the meteorological radar installed at the center point A. This weather radar is a radar installed by Kansai Electric Power for weather observation on the Sea of Japan side.
[0013]
Each of the 12 mesh regions shown in FIG. 1 is a region having a side of 40 km, and numerical meteorological data in each region is provided as Japan Meteorological Agency GP (Grid Point Value) data. This data is numerical weather data used when the Meteorological Agency makes weather forecasts. The numerical meteorological data are observed by major meteorological observation organizations around the world twice a day at midnight in the world standard time, including high-rise meteorological data. M.M. Collected by O (World Meteorological Organization), calculated by a supercomputer, and distributed as numerical weather data to each country.
[0014]
In Japan, based on the two numerical data, the supercomputer calculates numerical forecasts up to 3, 6, 9, and 12 hours ahead, adds topographic features unique to Japan, and distributes them to each weather station. Yes.
[0015]
Moreover, the rectangular range surrounded by the oblique lines in FIG. 1 is a predicted range of 27.5 km square, and is an example of a range predicted to cause winter thunder according to the present invention.
[0016]
FIG. 2 shows an example of numerical weather data (GPV) in the 12 mesh regions of FIG. In FIG. 2, the ground temperature, 925 hPa (hectopascal), 500 hPa, ground-500 hPa temperature difference, ground-700 hPa temperature difference, 925 hPa-700 hPa temperature difference, 850 hPa-700 hPa22 temperature difference, ground wind speed, 925 hPa wind direction in 12 mesh regions Wind speed, 850 hPa wind direction wind speed, 500 hPa, 925 hPa-ground vertical shear, 850 hPa-ground vertical shear, 500 hPa-ground vertical shear, 700-850 hPa vertical shear, 850 hPa altitude, 850 hPa relative humidity, 700 hPa relative humidity, 500-925 hPa equivalent temperature difference , 700-925 hPa-equivalent temperature difference, 700-850 hPa-equivalent temperature difference, and lower cloud cover 22 weather elements are listed. Here, the vertical shear is said to be large when the wind vector above the sky and the wind vector near the ground are very different. Temperature is an indicator of atmospheric instability.
[0017]
FIG. 3 is a diagram showing the classification of radar elements output from the weather radar. This class element includes three elements of CAPPI-L, CAPPI-M, and cloud top height. CAPPI (Constant Altitude PPI (Plan Position Indicator))-L is the radar echo reflection intensity at an altitude of 2 km, CAPPI-M is the radar echo reflection intensity at an altitude of 4 km, and the cloud top altitude is the maximum altitude of the thundercloud .
[0018]
When searching for a thundercloud with a weather radar, first search for a relatively low thundercloud with an altitude of 2 km by CAPPI-L, then search for a relatively high thundercloud with an altitude of 4 km by CAPPI-M, By searching for, lightning is predicted.
[0019]
FIG. 3 shows examples of classes 1 to 4 as radar elements, but the value of the power generation potential varies depending on how the classes are separated. If the class width is increased, the lightning rate tends to be average, and if the class width is decreased, the number of data in the class is reduced, which may cause reliability problems. In particular, the class width is considered not to be too small due to the combination of a plurality of radar elements. Since a maximum of three types of radar elements are used, the number of classes is set with about 3 as a guide, and is common to 12 mesh regions in FIG.
[0020]
Furthermore, in this invention, the meteorological potential for lightning is utilized. This is a combination of meteorological elements when a lightning (cloud discharge, lightning strike) phenomenon measured by a lightning discharge point location system (trade name: SAFIR) occurs during the past winter season.
[0021]
FIG. 4 is a block diagram of an apparatus for carrying out the present invention. In FIG. 4, the computer 1 includes a G.M. P. V data and data from weather radar are given. The database 2 stores meteorological element combinations when a lightning phenomenon has occurred in the past as measured by the SAFIR, and the accumulated meteorological element combinations are given to the computer 1. The computer 1 performs lightning prediction by software processing based on a flowchart shown in FIG. 5 described later, and calculates the lightning prediction rate up to 2 hours later and displays it on the display 3.
[0022]
FIG. 5 is a flowchart for explaining the specific operation of the embodiment of the present invention.
[0023]
Next, the operation of the embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIGS. 5, in step SP (abbreviated as SP in the drawing) 1, the G.M. P. The V data is input to the computer 1, and the class classification data of the radar elements from the weather radar shown in FIG. 3 is always input in step SP2.
[0024]
In step SP3, the computer 1 calculates the meteorological potential for the lightning based on the combination of the meteorological elements when the lightning phenomenon occurred in the past as measured by the SAFIR stored in the database 2. Specifically, a combination of meteorological elements is set in a prediction region composed of 12 mesh regions shown in FIG. The meteorological factors are altitude pressure, temperature, relative humidity, equivalent sound level, updraft, cloud cover and wind direction, and wind speed. Based on the combination of these meteorological elements, the G.M. P. It is determined whether each mesh region meteorological element indicated by V satisfies the meteorological condition in which winter thunder occurs in past cases, and a threshold value is set. For example, since it is clearly impossible for thunder to occur during fine weather, such weather data is deleted from the judgment target.
[0025]
When the computer 1 calculates the lightning potential for each mesh region and determines the possibility of lightning in step SP4, in step SP5 G. P. Based on the combination of the meteorological conditions indicated by the V data and the thunderclouds, and at that time the weather radar CAPPI-L, CAPPI-M, and the cloud top height And how the actual cloud develops and moves or weakens. That is, the movement / development of the thundercloud is calculated based on whether the echo intensity at an altitude of 2 km, the echo intensity at an altitude of 4 km, and the cloud top altitude exist within each threshold value at the time of lightning.
[0026]
In step SP6, an expected precipitation intensity map up to 2 hours later is created. This can measure precipitation intensity based on the amount of thundercloud movement and development calculated in step SP5, and is shown in the drawing. In step SP7, a thundercloud is estimated. In other words, if the current weather data given by the weather radar is similar to the weather conditions in the past winter lightning given by SAFIR, the risk of lightning strikes is combined with the thundercloud prediction results calculated from SP5 and SP6. Presume that there is. In step SP8, the lightning prediction rate for 2 hours later is calculated based on the echo intensity from the cloud from the weather radar and the cloud top altitude.
[0027]
In steps SP9 to SP17, the permissible time / distance ranges are added to 45 minutes, 60 minutes, 90 minutes, and 120 minutes, and the respective results are displayed on the display 3. These times are selected as needed. However, if 45 minutes is selected, the change from the current weather is considered to be small, so the allowable range of time / distance is small, and if 120 minutes is selected, the change is considered large, so the time / distance The allowable range is set large.
[0028]
FIG. 6 shows an observation range and a prediction example by the lightning prediction method of the embodiment of the present invention.
The calculation of the quantitative lightning prediction rate according to the embodiment of the present invention is as follows. As shown in FIG. 6, the prediction range is from 35 degrees 00 minutes to 36 degrees 12 minutes north latitude in the 12 mesh areas shown in FIG. It is within the area surrounded by 134 degrees 45 minutes to 136 degrees 45 minutes. When the predicted time is 60 minutes ahead, the time tolerance is 15 minutes, and the area tolerance is 27.5 km in the four-method area. The appearance time probability (%) is selected as the prediction display method.
[0029]
The embodiment disclosed this time should be considered as illustrative in all points and not restrictive. The scope of the present invention is defined by the terms of the claims, rather than the description above, and is intended to include any modifications within the scope and meaning equivalent to the terms of the claims.
[0030]
【The invention's effect】
As described above, according to the present invention, by using the data when winter lightning has been standardized in the past, the basic data when the Japan Meteorological Agency makes a numerical forecast is investigated, and the threshold value at the time of lightning is determined. Set the lightning intensity of the winter lightning depending on whether or not the reflection intensity from the cloud at the specified altitude of the meteorological radar observation items at the time of the lightning strike and the cloud top height are within the threshold at the time of the lightning strike. It becomes possible to predict.
[Brief description of the drawings]
FIG. 1 is a position diagram of a lightning prediction region used in the present invention.
FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of numerical meteorological data in 12 mesh regions in FIG. 1;
FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating an example of classes 1 to 4 as radar elements.
FIG. 4 is a block diagram of an apparatus for carrying out the present invention.
FIG. 5 is a flowchart for explaining a specific operation of the present invention.
FIG. 6 shows an observation range and a prediction example by a lightning prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
[Explanation of symbols]
1 computer, 2 database, 3 display.

Claims (5)

A method for predicting the occurrence of winter lightning,
Using the data of winter lightning that was standardized in the past, we surveyed the basic data when the Japan Meteorological Agency made a numerical forecast, set the threshold at the time of lightning,
Lightning of a winter thunder depends on whether the radar echo reflection intensity from the cloud and the cloud top altitude are within the threshold at the time of the lightning at the predetermined multiple altitudes of the observation items of the weather radar at the time of the lightning A method for predicting lightning strikes in winter, characterized by predicting   2. The winter season according to claim 1, wherein the basic data when the Meteorological Agency performs a numerical forecast is meteorological data composed of a combination of elements in a region surrounded by a predetermined latitude and longitude. A method of predicting lightning strikes. The winter lightning forecast method according to claim 2 , wherein the lightning forecast is defined as a region allowable range in a predetermined region within the region surrounded by the predetermined latitude and longitude. The winter lightning forecast according to claim 2 , wherein the lightning forecast is determined with a predetermined allowable time range. A device that predicts the occurrence of winter lightning using weather radar observation data,
A database for storing data when winter lightning occurred in the past,
Investigating basic data when the Japan Meteorological Agency conducts numerical forecasting, setting thresholds at the time of lightning, and reflection intensity from clouds at a plurality of predetermined altitudes of the weather radar observation items at the time of lightning And a winter lightning forecasting device, comprising: a forecasting means for forecasting winter lightning strikes based on whether or not the cloud top altitude is within a threshold value at the time of the lightning strike.

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