JP4058013B2 - Collection planning support device, method and program - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to an evaluation apparatus that evaluates the environmental load and costs / revenues in a cyclic life cycle in which a product group collected from one of a plurality of markets is reused and introduced into the same or another market.

  As the understanding of the seriousness of environmental problems deepens, the issue of building a recycling system at all levels, including national, local government, and companies, has become one of the most important issues. In a recycling system, it is effective not to recycle materials but to reuse the functions of products and parts. Therefore, in recent years, so-called reuse, in which used products are collected by manufacturers and disassembled, and the disassembled parts are reused as parts for the next product, as represented by film with a lens, is also applied to other industrial products. It has come to be required.

  In order to realize reuse as a business, it is necessary to quantitatively evaluate in advance how business profits change due to reuse and how environmental impact changes. The point of evaluating the reuse business is how to accurately estimate the supply and demand balance between the supply amount of the reused part and the required part quantity derived from the production volume of the product incorporating the part. If the supply of reused parts is less than the required quantity, the number of parts to be newly produced must be increased. Conversely, if the supply of reused parts is excessive, the remaining parts must be discarded. Because.

  Therefore, for multi-generation product lines (product families), a technology is being developed that simulates the supply-demand relationship of reuse parts and the effect on the business, and further makes a production plan based on the simulation results.

  As a technology for supporting a reuse business, a system for making a production plan for a product using reused parts using product collection information has been disclosed (see, for example, Patent Document 1). The purpose of this is to correct the production plan even if the production plan is based on the prediction of the product collection amount, but the actual quantity of the collected product and the collection time greatly deviate. However, the technology described here addresses the uncertainties of product recovery on the production plan side, while the product must be produced in response to market needs. Naturally there are limits.

The point of making the reuse business successful is that the reuse business actually improves profits and reduces the environmental burden. In order to realize this, it is important to increase the inventory turnover rate of the recovered product or the recovered parts taken out from the recovered product.
JP 2002-328976 A

  As explained above, in the past, in the reuse business, sales and collection plans that can be changed with a high degree of freedom are created in advance and easily while minimizing the impact on product recovery. There was a problem that it was not possible.

  Therefore, in view of the above problems, the present invention responds to the uncertainty of product recovery on the recovery plan side that can be easily changed by the business entity, and is high while minimizing the impact on profits due to disturbance. It is an object of the present invention to provide a recovery plan planning support apparatus and method that can easily and easily plan a recovery plan that can be changed with a degree of freedom.

  The present invention recycles the product group collected from one of a plurality of markets having different customer requirements for the product group, and in each cycle product life cycle in which the product group is reused and put into another market, The product group collection plan is supported, and (a) a plurality of change periods are set for the collection time in the sales / collection plan that determines the delivery time and collection time of the product group for each market. , (B) generating a plurality of collection plans each designating which of the plurality of markets is to be changed, and (c) collecting each of the collection times in the market designated by each collection plan. Based on each sales / recovery plan changed in the change period, a management analysis index value in the recycling product life cycle in which the product group is introduced into the plurality of markets is calculated, and (d) a plurality of change periods That Display a graph for comparing the sensitivity of the management analysis index value with respect to the change of the optimum value and the sales and recovery plans for the management analysis index values obtained for Re.

  Preferably, a change period in which the sensitivity of the management analysis index value with respect to a change in the collection plan is smallest is selected from the plurality of change periods. The management analysis index value is any one of inventory turnover rate, inventory turnover rate, environmental efficiency, and gross profit margin in the circulation type life cycle. Further, the plurality of collection plans are generated using a genetic algorithm.

  In addition, the present invention provides: (e) When a change period is set for the collection time in the sales / collection plan that determines the delivery time and collection time of the product group for each market, Generate multiple collection plans that specify each market's collection period, and (g) each sales / purchase in which the collection period in the market specified by each collection plan is changed in the above-mentioned change period. Calculating a management analysis index value in the recycling product life cycle in which the product group is introduced into the plurality of markets based on a collection plan; and (h) the management obtained for each of the plurality of collection plans The collection plan is updated based on the contents of the collection plan proposal having the best value among the analysis index values.

  According to the present invention, the collection plan that can be easily changed by the business entity for the uncertainty of product collection, and that can be changed with a high degree of freedom while minimizing the impact on profits due to disturbance. Plans can be made easily in advance.

  Embodiments of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings.

  FIG. 1 shows an example of the configuration of a circulation type business evaluation system to which the collection plan planning method according to the present embodiment is applied. Here, we take the product reuse / rental business as an example, and target multiple market segments such as companies, individuals, households, and educational facilities that have different customer requirements such as value life for products, specifications for product performance and functions, etc. An example of a circulation type business evaluation apparatus that evaluates the environmental load and cost / revenue in the circulation type business will be described.

  This system is roughly divided into a life cycle modeling unit 1, a simulation execution unit 2, a user interface unit 3, a sales / collection plan data storage unit 4, a product data storage unit 5, an LCA data storage unit 6, and a revenue cost data storage unit 7. , A collection time variable area setting unit 21, a collection plan optimization unit 22, a decision support unit 23, and an external storage device 24.

  The life cycle modeling unit 1 includes a calculation condition setting unit 1a for inputting simulation calculation conditions, background environmental load, background cost / revenue, sales collection plan data, market segment data, product data, parts data, etc. And a process model setting unit 1c for setting a process flow based on the product life cycle.

  The sales collection plan data is stored in the sales collection plan data storage unit 4, and the product data and parts data are stored in the product data storage unit 5.

  The process model setting unit 1c sets (generates) a desired process flow using a process stored in advance. Further, a market entry rule to be described later is determined from the sales collection plan data and the like.

  The simulation execution unit 2 includes a process processing unit 2a that simultaneously simulates a material flow and a cash flow based on the process flow set by the process model setting unit 1c and the various data. LCA (Life Cycle Assessment) data such as environmental load basic unit necessary for simulating the material flow is stored in the LCA data storage unit 6. Further, basic cost / revenue data necessary for simulating cash flow is stored in the cost / revenue data storage unit 7.

  The collection time variable area setting unit 21 displays a screen as shown in FIG. 10 on the user interface unit 3. On the screen, the user inputs a variable area for the collection time set in the sales / collection plan and a plurality of standard change periods in the variable area.

  The collection plan optimization unit 22 first uses the simulation execution unit 2 to obtain an optimum standard change period among a plurality of standard change periods specified for the collection time by the collection time variable area setting unit 21. Generate a collection of collection plans. Then, based on the result of the simulation performed on the recycling product life cycle in the simulation execution unit 2 based on each collection plan included in the generated group, for example, inventory turnover rate, sales, gross profit margin, Calculate management analysis index values such as inventory turnover and environmental efficiency. Until the index value reaches a predetermined threshold, the collection plan draft update, simulation, and index value calculation are repeated. This iterative process is performed for each of a plurality of standard change periods, and a series of collection plan plans arranged in descending order of the index value, that is, a solution series, is stored for each standard change period.

  The decision support unit 23 creates decision support information for determining an optimum standard change period from a plurality of standard change periods based on the solution series obtained by the collection plan optimization unit 22. . Alternatively, the optimum standard change period is determined from the plurality of standard change periods.

  The user interface unit 3 has a predetermined display device, and presents to the user environmental loads, management indexes (cost / revenue calculation results), decision support graphs, and the like obtained as a result of simulation. Further, it is for inputting data necessary for simulation such as calculation condition data, and for inputting an instruction such as a variable region of the collection time described later.

  To execute the simulation, first, an evaluation model is defined. The evaluation model is defined from calculation conditions, sales / collection plan, process flow, and product market entry rules.

  The life cycle modeling unit 1, the simulation execution unit 2, the collection time variable area setting unit 21, the collection plan optimization unit 22, and the decision support unit 23 are stored in the memory of the computer from the external storage device 24 as necessary. Executed. This system configuration can be configured on a general computer system.

  FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of a sales / collection plan for a product (group). In the actual market, the product delivery time and product collection time may be different from the contract time. This increases the inventory of reused parts more than originally predicted, which may adversely affect profits and environmental impact reduction effects. Therefore, in the present embodiment, assuming that there is a channel for collecting the product, the objective function (the index value) is maximized as much as possible by changing only the collection time without changing the sales time, and the market. The standard change period of the collection time is determined so that the sensitivity of the objective function is small with respect to the disturbance.

  Here, the reason for correcting only the collection plan without changing the sales period is that the sales plan is driven by the customer and is therefore difficult for the business entity to control, and if the same service is provided, it is replaced with an alternative product. By itself, that is, the recovery plan is controllable.

  Also, the purpose of defining the standard change period for the collection period is that if the collection period can be changed freely, the degree of freedom in the collection plan will be increased, and the number of possible collection plans will be large and difficult to calculate. .

  As the objective function, for example, an inventory turnover rate can be used.

  Here, taking the product reuse / rental business as an example, the environmental impact and costs / revenues in a recycling business targeting multiple (for example, 10 here) market segments such as companies, individuals / homes, and educational facilities. An explanation will be given by taking a circular business evaluation device to be evaluated as an example.

  A product life cycle in which a product collected from one of a plurality of markets and parts of the product are reused and put into another market among the plurality of markets is called a cyclic product life cycle. A business in which a product collected from one of a plurality of markets and parts of the product are reused and put into another market among the plurality of markets is called a circular business.

  In FIG. 2, product management numbers 1 to 10 each correspond to one market and indicate the sales / collection time to each market.

  3 is an example of sales / collection plan data to be referred to during simulation execution, FIG. 4 is an example of product data, FIG. 5 is an example of LCA (Life Cycle Assessment) data, and FIG. It is the figure which showed an example of profit and cost data.

  In the present embodiment, among the sales / recovery plans, the sales plan remains unchanged, and the collection time is changed. Therefore, focusing on only the recovery plan, these are simply referred to as a recovery plan and a recovery plan.

Next, the procedure for determining the standard change period of the collection time will be described with reference to FIG. A process flow based on the product life cycle is set (step S201). Next, the collection time variable area setting unit 21 sets a variable area and a plurality of standard change periods in the variable area for the collection time (step S202). Subsequently, the collection plan optimizing unit 25 sets an arbitrary standard change period (for example, as shown in FIG. 10, -6 months, -4 months, -2 as set in step S202). For one of the months, an initial group of collection plans is generated (step S203). The generated respective recovery plan Y _i has to executes the simulation are interlocked material flow and cash flow by the simulation unit 2 (step S204).

  The collection plan optimizing unit 25 updates the collection plan collection group until the simulation result satisfies an arbitrary optimization condition, that is, until the value of the objective function reaches a predetermined threshold (step S205). -Step S208). And step S203-step S208 are repeated about all the standard change periods in the set variable area. At this time, a solution series in which the objective function gradually deteriorates from the optimal solution is stored.

  If solution series are stored for all standard change periods, decision support information is created and presented to the system user (step S210). Finally, the user determines a standard change period for an appropriate collection time. (Step S211).

  The collection plan optimization process in steps S203 to S209 is for deriving an optimum collection plan. This processing procedure will be described later.

  FIG. 8 is a flowchart for explaining the life cycle modeling procedure in step S201 of FIG. First, each process element constituting the life cycle model is defined (step S301). The process element is, for example, a unit manufacturing process, a product assembly / test process, a product distribution process, or the like. Next, parameters for each process are set (step S302). For example, the yield rate and the time required for the process are set. Then, each process is connected with a directed link (step S303). A directed link represents the direction of material flow. Finally, a cash flow calculation method is set (step S305). For example, when a rental product is handled as a fixed asset, either the declining-balance method or the straight-line method is used as the cost amortization method, or a discount rate when converting the present value is set.

  FIG. 9 shows an example of a process flow generated by the life cycle modeling unit 1 in accordance with the procedure shown in FIG.

  FIG. 10 shows a display example of a variable area setting screen displayed on the user interface device 12 when setting the collection time variable area in step S202 of FIG. FIG. 10 shows that the standard change period is designated by three patterns of the advance period of 2, 4, and 6 months (X = −2, −4, −6).

  FIG. 11 is a flowchart for explaining the outline of the simulation execution procedure in step S204 of FIG. First, an entity is generated based on sales / collection data (step S311). The entity represents, for example, a product group. Next, the entity is moved between processes along the process flow (step S312). The movement continues until the entity is discarded and disappears (step S314). For all the moved processes, the environmental load, cost / revenue are calculated from the following equations (1) and (2) (step S313).

Here, a calculation method of environmental load, cost and profit in each process will be described. The environmental load is calculated from the following equation (1) for each entity.

The cost / revenue is calculated from the following equation (2) for each entity.

  For environmental impact, cost / revenue, calculate the total number of steps, stakeholders, processes, and items, respectively. For example, the cumulative value of only a certain process can be obtained by calculating the total of all the processes. “Stakeholder” refers to an organization or an individual who bears environmental burdens, costs and profits.

  When the calculation is completed for all the entities (step S315), the cost / revenue independent of the process and the environmental load are calculated (step S316). For example, depreciation expenses that occur regularly. When the necessary calculation period, that is, all the steps have been calculated, the simulation is terminated (step S317).

For example, the unit calculation time of the simulation (step time) of 1 month, as the period to perform a simulation (calculation period) is 180 months, 12 to the simulation results for one sales and recovery plan Y _i 16 Shown in

  FIG. 12 shows the carbon dioxide CO2 emission amount by process in time series. The horizontal axis represents the number of steps (from the 0th month to the 180th month), and represents the total cost for each stakeholder, process, and item calculated from the equation (1) in each month (step). In addition to CO 2, emissions of environmental impact substances such as NOx and SOx can be displayed.

  FIG. 13 shows the number of reused products in stock (the number of reuse target product stocks). The horizontal axis is the number of steps (from the 0th month to the 180th month), which is the number of reuse target product inventory by product age calculated in each month (step). In addition, the number of shipments of reused products and newly manufactured products, the number of reuse units, the recycled mass, the discarded mass, etc. are also displayed.

  FIG. 14 shows the environmental efficiency (a value obtained by dividing sales by the environmental load or a value obtained by dividing profit by the environmental load). In addition, environmental indicators such as recycling rate, and management analysis indicators such as inventory turnover, sales, gross profit margin, inventory turnover are also displayed. Incidentally, gross profit is the gross profit divided by sales. The inventory turnover ratio is a value obtained by dividing sales by inventory such as product inventory, raw materials, and work in process.

  FIG. 15 shows sales (revenue). The horizontal axis is the number of steps (from the 0th month to the 180th month), and the total value of revenue for each stakeholder, process, and item calculated from the formula (2) in each month (step) is accumulated and the change is shown. Show.

  FIG. 16 shows the cost. The horizontal axis represents the number of steps (from the 0th month to the 180th month), and shows each month (step) and each process (here, for example, shipping / transport process, collection process, manufacturing process, recycling and disposal process) ), The total value of the cost for each stakeholder and item calculated from the equation (2) is accumulated, and the transition is shown.

(Recovery plan optimization process)
In the recovery plan optimization process in steps S203 to S209 in FIG. 7, a genetic algorithm (GA) is applied to optimize the recovery plan. GA is an optimization method that efficiently obtains an optimal solution through selection, crossover, and mutation, assuming that the evaluation object in the real world is a biological gene. In GA, it is necessary to encode the evaluation target into a genotype. here,
Genotype Y _i = {y _ij }
However, y _ij = 1 (X period change), 0 (as planned),
j is the product management number, i is the collection plan (individual)
As a result, one recovery plan (individual) is expressed by a bit string of binary {1, 0}. For example, when the product collection time is advanced by X period, an alternative product is delivered for replacement, and the alternative product is used until the contract period expires. Use of such a genotype, since the recovery plan Y ₁ in FIG. 2 only product management number 6 is X period change,
Y ₁ = {0, 0, 0, 0, 0, _{1, 0,} 0, 0, 0}
Can be expressed as The recovery plan optimization processing procedure in steps S203 to S209 in FIG. 7 is a procedure for generating a recovery plan draft using GA. The GA updates generations through selection, crossover, and mutation so that the evaluation value of the objective function as a group increases. For this reason, first, an initial group of a collection plan corresponding to the initial group of genes is generated (step S203). For example, about 1,000 collection plans Y _i = {y _ij } are generated by random 1 and 0 columns, for example.

Here, the case where the inventory turnover rate S of the collected product, which is one of the management analysis indexes, is used as an optimization objective function will be described as an example. However, S = sales / inventory inventory. Each genotype contained in the generated initial population is decoded into a phenotype in a real-world recovery plan. For example, in the sales and collection design in Figure 2, one those ahead of schedule (e.g., a standard change period of the plurality of the standard change period recovery time of a corresponding product control number "1" of the recovery plan Y _i When the simulation is performed for -2 months, "collection time -2") is the sales / collection plan draft used for the simulation. For each collection plan Y _i obtained in this way, by performing the simulation procedure shown in FIG. 11, as shown in FIG. 13, the product inventory transition is obtained, further, as shown in FIG. 16 Change in sales.

For example, the inventory turnover rate S in the case of the collection plan Y _{i represents} the total sales up to the 180th month as {(cumulative value of the number of net inventory up to the 180th month) × (price per stock product) } To obtain. The price per stock product is determined in consideration of, for example, the product age of each stock product or the decrease in value due to depreciation. For example, the price per stock product is determined in advance for each product age. It may be. In addition, the price per product in stock may be determined in advance regardless of the product age.

After executing simulation for all collection plans in the initial group and obtaining the inventory turnover rate S for each collection plan, next, a selection process is performed on the initial group to update the initial group (step S206). ). For example, select probability

^{Select which individuals to cross over. After the individuals to be crossed are selected probabilistically based on the selection probability, for example, a plurality of crossovers are performed (step S207)} . For example,
Y ₁ = {0, 0, 0, 0, 0, _{1, 0,} 0, 0, 0}
When Y ₂ = {1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0} is selected and the crossover positions are the second and fifth, one of the new individuals Y ₁ ′ is , Y 1 _'to the second position from the head of consists data to the second from the head of the Y _1, Y _1' from the third to the fifth consists data from the third Y ₂ to the fifth, Y 6 th and subsequent _{1 'consists} of data from the sixth Y ₁ to the last. The other new individual Y ₂ ′ is the opposite gene. That is,
Y ₁ ′ = {0, 0, _1, 0, 0, _1, 0, 0, 0, 0}
Y ₂ ′ = {1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0}.

Next, mutation is an operation of changing a gene with a certain probability (step S208). For example, one of the new individuals Y ₁ ′, one of the new individuals Y ₂ ′, is mutated to generate the following new individuals Y _{1 ″} , Y _{2 ″} .

Y _{1 ″} = {0, 0, _1, 0, _{1, 1,} 0, 0, 0, 0}
Y _{2 ″} = {1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0}
As described above, the initial group is evolved to generate a next generation group, and a simulation is performed for each collection plan included in the next generation group to determine the inventory turnover rate S. Thus, the collection plan draft update, simulation, selection, intersection, and mutation are determined when an appropriate optimization condition, for example, the degree of improvement in the value of the inventory turnover rate S becomes very small, that is, predetermined. Repeat until the given threshold is reached. When the inventory turnover rate S reaches a predetermined threshold for a collection plan collection plan, the stock turnover rate optimization is terminated (step S205).

When the processes in steps S203 to S209 described above are performed for all the set standard change periods of the collection times, a solution series Z as shown in FIG. 17 is generated. Here, the solution series Z = {Z _i } is a series obtained by rearranging Y _i in descending order of the value of the objective function (inventory turnover rate S). Z ₁ corresponds to the collection plan Y _i having the maximum objective function. Further, in this example, three types of solution sequences of standard change periods X = −2, −4, −6 of the collection time are obtained.

  In FIG. 17, the value of the inventory turnover rate S is high, and the value of S hardly changes with respect to the change of the collection plan Yi on the horizontal axis (the sensitivity to the change of S is small), that is, It can be said that X = −2 is the optimum standard change period.

  The low sensitivity of the inventory appraisal rate S to changes in the collection plan suggests that, even if the collection period of any of the multiple markets in the sales / collection plan is changed, the inventory turnover rate S is hardly affected. It means that there is no.

  Next, an appropriate number of solution series is determined, and the decision support unit 23 creates a decision support graph as shown in FIG. The vertical axis of the graph shown in FIG. 18 represents the reciprocal of the sensitivity of the inventory turnover rate S to the change in the collection plan (that is, the change rate of the stock turnover rate S). The horizontal axis is the optimum value of the inventory turnover rate S, and the higher the value, the higher the return. Further, the higher the value on the vertical axis, the smaller the change rate, that is, the lower the sensitivity to the objective function, which means that the robustness is high and the risk is low. Therefore, the greater the distance from the origin, the lower the risk and the higher the return.

The change rate of the inventory turnover rate S is, for example, the amount of change in the inventory turnover rate S from the optimum value of the inventory turnover rate S to T Y _{i in} descending order as shown in FIG. is there.

The decision maker (user) can determine the standard change period of an appropriate collection time before starting the reuse business by looking at the graph shown in FIG. In this case, a standard change period -2 months, that is, when the accelerated period of two months, the sensitivity to changes in the recovery plan Y _i indicates the smallest, yet high inventory turnover. Therefore, the user selects -2 months as the standard change period.

In addition, the decision support unit 23 displays the decision support graph shown in FIG. 18, and has the lowest sensitivity to the change in the collection plan Y _{i in} the set standard change period, and the high inventory turnover rate. The standard change period shown may be determined and presented to the user. Moreover, you may display the solution series about each standard change period as shown in FIG.

  For example, in the sales / recovery plan of FIG. 2, the product management number 6 whose collection time can be advanced can be recovered two months ahead.

  As described above, in the above evaluation system, the collection time variable area setting unit 21 sets a plurality of change periods for the collection time in the sales / collection plan that determines the delivery time and collection time of the product group for each market. The collection plan optimizing unit 22 generates a plurality of collection plan proposals for designating which one of the plurality of markets on the sales / collection plan is to be changed, and is designated by each collection plan proposal. Based on the results of simulations performed by the simulation execution unit 2 based on each sales / collection plan draft whose collection time in the market is changed in each change period, the product group is based on each sales / collection plan draft Calculate business analysis index values in the life cycle of recycling products that are put into multiple markets. Then, for each change period, a collection plan series (solution series) arranged in order from the highest index value is stored. In the decision support unit 23, based on the solution series for each change period obtained by the collection plan optimization unit 22, the optimum index value obtained for each of the plurality of change periods and the change in the sales / collection plan By displaying a graph for comparing the sensitivity of the index value, and selecting the change period with the least sensitivity of the index value to the change in the collection plan from among the multiple change periods, the market disturbance (sales plan change, The collection plan can be updated at a high speed to minimize the inventory of collected products (and collected parts) in response to refusal of product collection, cancellation on the way, etc., resulting in improved business profits and reduced environmental impact. be able to. In addition, it is possible to maintain a trusting relationship with the customer by specifying the advance period in the product rental or lease contract signed with the customer for the advance of product collection that may occur unexpectedly.

  In the above description, the inventory turnover rate may be calculated from inventory products and inventory parts. The stock product is an entity remaining in the product stock ST8 of FIG. 9, and the stock parts are entities remaining in the parts stock ST11 of FIG.

For example, in the case of the collection plan Y _i , the inventory turnover rate S represents the total sales up to the 180th month, {(total value of the number of net product stocks up to the 180th month) × (price per stock product) ) + (Total value of net parts inventory up to the 180th month) × (price per inventory part)}. The price per inventory part is determined in consideration of, for example, the remaining service life of each stock part as in the case of product inventory. For example, the price per inventory part is determined in advance for each remaining service life. It may be. In addition, the price per one inventory component may be determined in advance in relation to the remaining service life.

  In the above description, the inventory turnover rate has been described as an example of the management analysis index. However, the present invention is not limited to this, and sales, gross profit margin, inventory turnover rate, environmental efficiency, and the like may be used. Each of these index values is obtained as a result of performing a simulation on the cyclic product life cycle in the simulation execution unit 2, and even if any of these is used as the objective function, the same as above An effect is obtained.

(Optimization of collection plan during business operation)
Next, the procedure for optimizing the collection plan using the system of FIG. 1 after the start of the reuse business will be described with reference to FIG. According to the system of FIG. 1, as described above, the optimal standard change period is determined before the start of the reuse business. When the reuse business is actually started using this standard change period, the market disturbance An optimal collection plan can be sequentially determined based on the sales / collection plan data updated to reflect information (sales plan change, product collection refusal, mid-term cancellation, etc.).

  If the reuse business is started, sales plan change, product collection refusal, cancellation on the way, etc. will occur, and the sales / collection plan itself will be changed accordingly. Therefore, after setting an optimal standard change period (for example, -2 months) determined in advance on a screen as shown in FIG. 10, for example, market disturbance (sales plan change, product collection refusal, cancellation on the way, etc.) 7), the sales / collection plan data is updated every time the sales / collection plan data is updated (newly stored in the sales / collection plan data storage unit 4). According to step S209, the initial collection generation of the collection plan (step S203), the simulation for each collection plan included in the generated group (step S204), and the calculation of the management analysis index value (for example, inventory turnover rate S) from the simulation result (Step S204 ′) is repeated, and Steps S203 to S204 ′ are repeated until a management analysis index value equal to or greater than a predetermined threshold is obtained (Step S204 ′). Step S205). As a result, the collection plan optimizing unit 22 obtains a solution series for each collection plan proposal in the fixed standard change period as shown in FIG. The collection plan optimization unit 22 selects an optimum solution (for example, the management analysis index value is the best) from this solution series (a collection plan draft). Based on the selected collection plan, the sales / collection plan data (stored in the sales / collection plan data storage unit 4) is corrected and updated. That is, the original sales / collection plan data is corrected and updated by advancing the collection time of the product management number “1” in the selected collection plan draft by the fixed standard change period.

  Moreover, as shown in FIG. 17, the decision support part 23 may display the solution series obtained for each collection plan in the case of the fixed standard change period.

  The user selects an optimum solution (for example, the management analysis index value is the best) from this solution series (a collection plan draft). The user modifies and updates the original sales / collection plan based on the selected collection plan. In other words, the original sales / collection plan may be corrected and updated by bringing the collection period of the product management number “1” in the selected collection plan ahead of time by the fixed standard change period.

  In this way, every time sales / collection plan data is updated due to market disturbances, the customer (product management number) whose collection time is advanced as described above is determined, and the sales / collection plan data is updated, Business risk can be reduced.

  Further, every time the sales / collection plan data is updated due to market disturbance, the optimum standard change period may be determined again as shown in FIG.

  As described above, according to the above-described embodiment, the uncertainty of product collection is dealt with by the collection plan that can be easily changed by the business entity, and the influence on the profits caused by the disturbance is minimized and the freedom is high. A recovery plan that can be changed at any time can be easily planned in advance and after the fact.

(Simulation of recycling product life cycle)
Next, the processing operation of the simulation execution unit 2 of the circulation type business evaluation device of FIG. 1 will be described in detail.

  FIG. 20 shows an example of calculation condition data input from the calculation condition input unit 1a. The calculation condition data includes a calculation product unit, a calculation step time, a calculation period, a depreciation period, an amortization method, and a discount rate. The calculated product unit indicates how many products are calculated as one unit (entity) when the simulation is executed. Here, since the calculation product unit is 100, the number of products included in one entity is an initial value of 100 when the entity is generated. The calculation step time is a unit calculation time of simulation. Here, the calculation step time is one month. The calculation period is a period for executing the simulation. The depreciation period, depreciation method, and discount rate indicate the cost / revenue production method.

  As calculation conditions, background environmental load data as shown in FIG. 21 and background cost / revenue data as shown in FIG. 22 are input from the calculation condition input unit 1a. These specify the environmental load and cost / revenue that do not depend on the process flow by the generation period, generation interval, stakeholder, material usage, amount of money, etc.

  FIG. 23 shows an example of sales / collection plan data input from the sales / collection plan input unit 1b. “Market segment”, “Customer”, “Business form”, “Product”, “Number of units shipped”, “Shipment time” One plan is expressed by designating 8 items of “use period” and “price”. In other words, “customer”, “business form”, “product”, “shipment volume” for each of the multiple markets targeted by the business (here, “business”, “individual / family”, and “education facility”). “Shipment time” “Period of use” “Price”.

  As shown in FIG. 24, “product value life” and “product use frequency coefficient” are designated for each market segment. “Product usage frequency coefficient” designates the reference segment (in this case “Company” segment) as “1” and divides the remaining service life of the product by the “product usage frequency coefficient” so that the remaining service life in other market segments Used to convert to

  In the “business form”, a product supply method such as reuse or sellout is designated. “Product” designates each product to be introduced into the market. Here, a product “PC B” is designated. For each product, “product mass”, “product useful life”, and “part configuration” are designated by product data as shown in FIG. In the “part configuration”, the part name and the number of parts are specified for each part included in the product. Further, for each part, “part mass”, “part useful life”, and “use material” of the part are designated by the part data as shown in FIG. In the “used material”, the name of the material and the amount used are specified for each material used for manufacturing the part.

  Note that the product data shown in FIG. 25 and the part data shown in FIG. 26 may be stored in advance in the product data storage unit 5. The user inputs sales / collection plan data as shown in FIG. 23 and market segment data shown in FIG. 24 from the sales / collection plan input unit 16.

  FIG. 9 shows a process flow generated by the process model setting unit 1c. As shown in FIG. 9, the process flow includes a process node representing a plurality of processes corresponding to a plurality of stages (stages) included in the life cycle of a product (here, for example, the personal computer B), and one process node. It is the graph represented by the connector which shows the direction of the flow to the other process node, and this is also called material flow. The process node is templated and has items corresponding to the type of process. For example, the user sets a process flow as shown in FIG. 9 by selecting a desired process and connecting them by a connector.

  The life cycle of the personal computer B includes a product manufacturing stage ST1, a product testing stage ST2, a product shipping stage ST3, a market stage ST4, a product collection stage ST5, a disposal stage ST6, a product disassembly stage ST7, a product inventory stage ST8, and a product reuse stage ST9. , A component reuse stage ST10, a parts inventory stage ST11, a material recycling stage ST12, and a material inventory stage ST13 are included. Here, the feature is that the market stage ST4 is not a single market, and there are a plurality of markets (for example, “corporate”, “individual / family”, and “education facility”) that have different product lifespans. is there.

  In the process flow, processes corresponding to the above stages of the product life cycle, that is, manufacturing process, test process, shipping / transport process, use process, collection process, disposal process, product disassembly process, inventory (product) process, product reuse A process, a unit reuse process, an inventory (parts) process, a recycling process, and an inventory (material) process are included, and the simulation execution unit 2 simulates a cyclic product life cycle by executing these processes.

  Newly manufactured products (in the process flow, for example, one entity with 100 product groups as one unit) should be put into the market with the shortest value life among the three markets (the “enterprise” segment) The product manufacturing stage ST1, the product testing stage ST2, the product shipping stage ST3, the market stage ST4 in the “enterprise” segment, the product collection stage ST5, the product inventory stage ST8, and the life cycle of the first week (of one entity) finish.

  In the present embodiment, for a product once collected from a certain market, based on the remaining useful life and product age, the product reuse stage ST9, the product dismantling stage ST7 (through which the product is passed to the parts reuse stage ST10), disposal Assign to any of the stages ST6.

  The service life is a period in which the failure rate of the product lasts below a specified value, and the value life is the duration of the product value determined by the user (market). The remaining service life of a product is the service life that is predetermined for the product when the product is newly manufactured and has not yet been introduced to any market. The remaining service life of the product when it is collected can be obtained by subtracting the period of use in the market where the product was collected from the remaining service life of the product at that time.

  The product age is the elapsed time since the product was manufactured (in this case, the calculation step time is 1 month, and is expressed in elapsed months). That is, when the time when the product is manufactured (here, the manufactured month) is the production time, the product obtained by subtracting the production time from the current time “nth month” (n is 0, 1, 2,...). Age.

  The value remaining life of a product is obtained by comparing the product age of the product with a value life predetermined for each market. That is, the product age of the product at that time can be subtracted from the value life of each market.

  The order of product introduction, which indicates the order in which products collected in a plurality of markets are to be introduced, is based on the remaining service life of the product and each market (by sales / collection plan data as shown in FIG. 23). It is determined based on the defined value life, product usage frequency coefficient, and usage period.

  After calculating the remaining useful life and product age for products collected from the “Enterprise” segment, the next market (eg “Individual / Home” segment) is selected as described above. The life cycle of the second lap starts to be put on the market.

  For products recovered from the “Individual / Home” segment, calculate the remaining useful life and product age, and select the next market (for example, the “Education Facility” segment) as described above. In order to enter the next market, the life cycle of the third lap is started.

  Multiple markets are categorized based on differences in customer requirements such as product life expectancy and product performance and functionality requirements. For example, if the market is classified based on the value life as a customer requirement, the first market with the shortest value life, the second market with a longer value life than the first market, and the value with the value life longer than the second market. It can be classified into three markets. Hereinafter, a case where a market is classified according to a difference in value life among customer requests will be described as an example. Specifically, the first market (user) is a company, the second market is an individual / family, and the third market is an educational facility. According to the market segment data shown in FIG. 24, the value life of the “enterprise” segment is 24 months, the value life of the “individual / family” segment is 48 months, and the value life of the “education facility” segment is 72 months.

  FIG. 27 shows products that can be introduced into each market segment obtained from FIG. 24 and their priorities. It is determined based on the priority based on the product age and value life as shown in FIG. 27, the sales / collection plan data (mainly the usage period in each market) shown in FIG. FIG. 28 shows a market entry rule indicating the order of entry.

  Here, the order of introduction is determined based on the remaining service life and the remaining value life of the product after the period of use determined for each market. In other words, the remaining service life and the remaining value life of the product after the use period determined for each market are calculated, and the remaining service life remains even after the use period (for example, service life). (The remaining life is 1 month or more) and the order of introduction is determined in order from the market with the longest value remaining life.

  FIG. 28 schematically shows the input order of the product group determined for each market in this way, that is, the input rule.

  In the market entry rule shown in FIG. 28, a newly manufactured product is put into the “enterprise” segment with the shortest value life, and no reuse product is put into the “enterprise” segment. In addition, products with a lower product age are given priority in the market with a short value life.

  Regarding products collected in the “Corporate” segment for 24 months from the 0th month (products with a product age of 24 months or more), the “Individual / Home” segment and the “Education Facility” segment are the first “Individuals”・ Introduced to the “Home” segment. Products of the same product age are preferentially introduced into the “individual / household” segment (input route A). The product collected from the “enterprise” segment is input to the “education facility” segment only when the shipment quantity to the “individual / household” segment is satisfied (input route B). Products collected in the “Individual / Home” segment that have been used for 24 months from the 24th month (products aged between 24 and 47 months) are put into the “Education Facility” segment (Input Route C). Here, the input route A has the highest priority, and the priority is lower in the order of B, C, and D.

  In the market entry rule shown in FIG. 28, the remaining useful life remains even after the use period has elapsed, from the remaining service life and the remaining value life of the product after the use period determined for each market. In addition, the order of input is determined in order from the market with the longest remaining life. However, the present invention is not limited to this, and the order of input specified by the user for a plurality of markets may be used. The order of input to each market may be determined in the order of the shortest value life. In addition, the order of introduction to each market may be determined in the order of the long remaining service life of the products after the usage period has elapsed in each market.

  Further, the order of input for each market may be determined in the order of the largest gross profit. Strictly speaking, gross profit is the sales minus the total cost at each stage of the product life cycle. However, in the rental business, if the cost is almost the same regardless of which market the product is put in, it can be said that the higher the rental fee (rental fee per month × use period), the higher the sales. That is, it can be said that the market where the profit generated by the use process is large is the market with the gross profit.

  Therefore, in the market where the revenue generated in the usage process is the largest, specifically, the rental period per month included in the sales / collection plan data shown in FIG. You may make it select the market where the rental fee obtained by multiplying is the highest.

  Furthermore, a plurality of the above market entry rules may be used in combination. For example, when there are multiple markets with the same priority (for example, when there are multiple markets where the remaining useful life and value remaining life of products after the period of use specified for each market are the same), The market where the revenue generated by the usage process is the highest, specifically, the market where the rental fee is the highest, is given higher priority.

  Next, the processing operation of the cyclic business evaluation system will be described with reference to the flowchart shown in FIG.

  The simulation is performed for each step corresponding to a unit time (calculation step time (here, for example, January)). In the unit step, the entity (product group) is calculated in each process and moved between processes according to the process flow of FIG. 9, and when the process calculation and movement are completed for all entities, the processing of the next step is started. .

  First, the calculation condition data of FIG. 20, the background environmental load data of FIG. 21, the background cost / revenue data of FIG. 22, the sales / collection plan data of FIG. 23, FIG. Such a market entry rule is determined. Then, a process flow as shown in FIG. 9 is generated (step S1).

  When the evaluation model is generated in this way, the current time is set to the 0th month (step S1 ′), and then the process for each step is started.

  In the step process, first, the manufacturing process of the process flow of FIG. 9 is executed (step S2). Here, in order to process a newly generated entity, a new entity is generated with reference to the sales / collection plan data.

  It is assumed that the current time is the nth month (n is 0, 1, 2,... 180).

  FIG. 30 is a flowchart showing the manufacturing process process. In the manufacturing process, first, it is checked from the sales / collection plan data of FIG. 23 whether there is a sales plan to be shipped (step S12). That is, it is checked whether or not there is a sales plan whose shipping time is the nth month of the current time. When there is at least one such sales plan, the process proceeds to step S13, and when there is no sales plan to be shipped now, the manufacturing process is terminated.

  For example, if the current time is the 0th month, in step S12, a sales plan (first sales plan) of shipping 300 PCs B to the “enterprise” segment and shipping in the 0th month is obtained. In addition, if the current time is the 25th month, the sales plan (second sales plan) is to ship 200 PCs B to the “Individual / Home” segment and the 25th month, and the “Education Facility” segment. A sales plan (third sales plan) of shipping 200 personal computers B in the 25th month is obtained.

  If a plurality of sales plans are obtained in step S12, the market segment to be targeted this time is selected from the market segments of the plurality of sales plans based on the market entry rules. Then, based on the sales plan to the selected market segment, the following steps S14 to S19 are performed. If only one sales plan is obtained in step S12, step S13 may be skipped. Then, the following steps S14 to S19 are performed.

  In step S13, for example, when the current time is the 0th month, the first sales plan is selected because the sales plan obtained in step S12 is only the first sales plan. If the current time is the 25th month, the sales plan obtained in step S12 has the second and third sales plans prior to the second sales plan from the market entry rule of FIG. Next, a third sales plan is selected.

  Steps S14 to S19 are performed for one entity. If the business form of the sales plan selected in step S13 is “sold out” (step S14), the process proceeds to step S17 to apply a newly manufactured product. If the business form is “reuse” (step S14), the delivery of the reuse product is considered and the process proceeds to step S15 to check the inventory. If there is no stock in step S15, the process proceeds to step S17 to apply a newly manufactured product. If there is a stock (step S15), the process proceeds to step S16, where the remaining product life of the reuse target product that is a stock product is compared with the usage period of the sales plan.

  Since the usage frequency and usage environment of the product differ depending on the market segment, it is determined after considering how much the remaining useful life is consumed relative to the standard market segment that defines the useful life. That is, the product remaining useful life of the inventory product is divided by the product use frequency coefficient (see FIG. 24) determined for the market segment currently targeted, to obtain a substantial remaining useful life. Then, the substantial product useful life of the stock product is compared with the period of use.

  When the substantial product life expectancy of the stock product is less than the use period (step S16), the process proceeds to step S17, where the newly manufactured product is applied and the substantial product life expectancy of the stock product is longer than the use period. If (step S16), the process proceeds to step S18, and the reuse product is delivered.

  In the case of hitting a newly manufactured product, in step S17, first, a new entity is generated (step S17a). Then, an attribute is given to the generated entity based on the sales plan (step S17b). If there is a stock of recyclable material that can be used, the recycle material is allocated at a specific rate (step S17c).

  When the current time is the 0th month, the first sales plan is selected from the sales / collection plan data shown in FIG. 23. The number of units shipped in this first sales plan is 300 units, that is, three calculated product units. It is. Accordingly, here, Step S14 to Step S17 are repeated three times, and as a result, three new entities are generated.

  FIG. 31 shows an attribute table of an entity generated in the 0th month. FIG. 31 (a) shows an attribute table for each entity, and FIG. 31 (b) shows each part included in the entity. It is an attribute table about (unit).

  In step S17b, attributes for each entity and attributes for each part (unit) included in each entity are stored in a table format as shown in FIGS. Note that an attribute table as shown in FIGS. 31A and 31B is stored in the data storage unit 11.

  As shown in FIG. 31 (a), as attributes for each entity, the market segment to which the entity belongs, the customer and business form corresponding to the market segment, the product shipped to the market segment, the market segment of the product in the market segment The period of use, the number of reuses at the time of shipment, the production time of the production, the remaining service life and product age at the time of shipment, the actual number of products included in the entity, and the like are stored. The number of products included in the newly generated entity is the initial value of 100 units (calculated product unit). Further, as shown in FIG. 31 (b), the number of reuses of the part, the production time, the remaining part service life, the part age, and the like are stored as attributes for each part included in each entity.

  The attribute table shown in FIGS. 31A and 31B is updated by each process when an entity or a part (unit) is newly generated, or when an attribute is changed by allocation or the like.

  Note that the remaining service life of a component is the same as the remaining service life of a product, which is a service life that is predetermined for the part when the part is newly manufactured and has not yet been introduced to any market. The remaining service life of the part when it is recovered from the market after being put into the market can be obtained by subtracting the period of use in the market of the recovery source from the remaining service life of the part at that time.

  Similarly to the product age, the part age is the elapsed time since the part was manufactured (here, the calculation step time is represented by the number of months). That is, when the time at which a part is manufactured (here, the month in which it is manufactured) is the production time, the part age is obtained by subtracting the production time from the current time.

  When the current time is the 0th month, in step S17b, the number of reuses of each entity is “0”, the production time is “0th month”, and the product remaining service life is the initial service life of the product (for example, In this case, 120 months), “0” is stored as the product age. In addition, the number of reuses of each part included in each entity is stored as “0”, the production time is “0”, the remaining service life of the part is the initial remaining service life of the part, and the part age is “0”.

  In step S18, a product (existing entity) is allocated from stock products (existing entity) (step S18a). In this case, a product reuse process shown in FIG. 38 to be described later is executed for the allocated entity.

  Next, the attribute of the allocated product (existing entity) is changed in step S18a (step S18b). That is, the attribute of the allocated existing entity is changed to an attribute corresponding to the sales plan for the market currently targeted.

  As described above, after one entity (newly manufactured product (newly generated entity) or reuse product (existing entity)) is obtained, the environmental load necessary for material procurement and processing, The cost / revenue is calculated using the above formulas (1) and (2) (step S19).

  The processes in steps S14 to S19 are repeated until an entity corresponding to the number of units shipped in the sales plan selected in step S13 is obtained (step S20). Furthermore, the process of step S13-step S20 is performed about all the sales plans obtained by step S12 (step S21).

  The above is the process of the manufacturing process. Returning to the description of FIG. 29, after the processing of the manufacturing process is completed (step S3), processing is performed on existing entities existing in the process flow (that is, each entity stored in the attribute table shown in FIG. 31A). (Step S4).

  FIG. 33 is a flowchart for explaining a processing operation for an existing entity. First, at the current time “nth month”, the entity to be processed is moved along the process flow of FIG. 9 (step S31). After performing the process-specific processing in the destination process node (step S32), the cost / revenue and environmental load are calculated (step S33), and when there is a time delay before moving to the next process (step S33) S34), and ends here. When it is possible to shift to the next process without time delay, that is, when there is another process to be executed at the current time “nth month” (step S34), the process returns to step S31. Then, the movement and the process are repeated until the entity disappears due to inventory, disposal or the like (step S35). The above processing is performed for all existing entities in the process flow (step S5 in FIG. 29).

  When the processing for all existing entities existing in the process flow is completed (step S5 in FIG. 29), the process proceeds to step S6, where the environmental load generated periodically when conducting business separately from the entity processing, Calculate cost / revenue for each step. For example, in the rental business, a property tax generated by the business owner owning the product is calculated.

  The above is the process for each calculation step time, and it is repeated until the designated calculation period (here, 180 months) ends (step S7). That is, the processes in steps S2 to S6 are repeated until the step process with the current time (number of steps) in the 180th month is completed. When the current time has not reached the 180th month, the process proceeds to step S8, the current time is incremented by "1", and the process returns to step S2. When the current time has reached the 180th month, the calculation result is output (step S9).

  Next, the processing procedure of each process included in the process flow shown in FIG. 9 will be described. The manufacturing process in the process flow of FIG. 9 has been described above (see FIG. 30). Here, a test process, a shipment / transport process, a use process, a collection process, a disassembly process, a product reuse process, a unit reuse process, and a recycling process will be described in the process flow of FIG.

  FIG. 34 is a flowchart showing the processing procedure of the product test process. The test process is executed on the entity that has moved from the manufacturing process in step S4 of FIG. For example, it is executed within “nth month” for the entity newly generated at the current time “nth month” and the allocated reuse product entity. First, for the entity to be processed, the environmental load, cost and profit generated in the test process are calculated using equations (1) and (2) (step S101). In the test process, an occurrence rate of defective products detected as a result of product testing, that is, a defect rate is set. Therefore, next, products are sorted according to this defect rate. As a distribution method, according to the defect rate (for example, when one entity is one unit), all the entities are determined to be acceptable or defective, and one entity is determined to be a qualified entity based on the defect rate. There is a method of dividing into two entities, that is, a defective product entity. Entities that are assigned to the accepted products are transferred to the shipping / transportation process, and entities that are assigned to the defective products are transferred to the disposal process. When one entity is divided, the attribute of the original entity divided (number of products included in the entity) is updated, and the attributes newly created for the entity are added to the attribute table. Register with.

  In step S4 of FIG. 29, for example, the shipping / transportation process is executed within “nth month” for each entity that has been passed through the test process at the current time “nth month” and has been assigned to an acceptable product. In this process, the environmental load, cost, and profit at the time of product shipment are calculated using equations (1) and (2). The load and cost are calculated by specifying the means of transport and the amount of transport as well as the method of directly specifying the indirect materials and costs / revenues that are normally used.

  FIG. 35 is a flowchart showing the processing procedure of the use process. In step S4 of FIG. 29, the usage process is executed for each entity that stays in the market segment of the shipping destination (input destination) through the shipping / transportation process. In the usage process, for all entities that stay in each market segment of the entity's ship-to destination, the environmental load and cost that occur when the user uses the product are calculated using the formulas (1) and (2) for each month corresponding to the calculation step time. To calculate (step S111, step S112). Each time the current time is incremented by one in step S8 of FIG. 29, the environmental load and cost generated during one month for each entity staying in the market segment until the specified usage period is reached in each market segment. Is calculated (step S113). When each entity staying in each market segment expires in that market segment, the entity transitions to a collection process.

  FIG. 36 is a flowchart showing the processing procedure of the recovery process. In step S4 of FIG. 29, the collection process is executed for the entity that has shifted from the usage process because the usage period in the market segment of the input destination has elapsed. In the collection process, first, the remaining useful life and product age are calculated for the collected entity (step S120). The calculation result is recorded in “product remaining life” and “product age” corresponding to the entity on the attribute table shown in FIG.

  Next, the entity is allocated to any one of the three processes according to four conditions. First, based on a predetermined recovery rate, entities are allocated to recovered products and non-recovered products (step S121), and the non-recovered products go through processes such as recycling and disposal by other processors. Here, non-recovered products are allocated to the disposal process.

  The collected products are sorted according to the business form of the market where the collected products are input (step S122), and the products used in the sold-out business are sorted into the disposal process in the same manner as the non-collected products. The products used (collected) in the rental and leasing business are sorted according to the remaining useful life of the product (step S123). When the product life expectancy is less than the specified value (first threshold: for example, the period of use in the market with the longest value life, here the period of use in the “education facility” segment “24 months”) In order to reuse a part (unit) included in the product, that is, to be a unit reuse target product, it is distributed to a disassembly process.

  In step S123, for an entity whose product life expectancy is equal to or greater than a specified value (first threshold), first, the product corresponding to the entity when the product corresponding to the entity is put into the market segment with the longest value life among a plurality of market segments. Calculate the remaining life expectancy of an entity. The value remaining life is a value designated in advance (second threshold: for example, corresponding to the use period in the market with the longest value life, in this case, the use period “24 months” in the “education facility” segment) ) Depending on whether or not this is the case, the entities whose product life expectancy is greater than or equal to the specified value (first threshold) are allocated (step S124). If the remaining value life is equal to or greater than a predesignated value (second threshold), the entity allocates to the product reuse process in order to reuse and enter other market segments. If the remaining lifetime is less than a predesignated value (second threshold), the entity is assigned to the dismantling process.

  In step S121, the method of allocating one entity according to the collection rate is a method in which all one entity is accepted or defective according to the collection rate (for example, when there is one entity, for example). There is a method in which one entity is divided into two entities, a collected entity and a non-collected entity, according to the collection rate. When dividing one entity, update the attribute of the original entity (number of products included in the entity) and register the new attribute for the newly generated entity. Keep it.

  FIG. 37 is a flowchart showing the processing procedure of the dismantling process. In step S4 of FIG. 29, the dismantling process is executed for the entity that has transitioned from the collection process and the product reuse process. In the disassembly process, the product is disassembled into units (parts) and sent to different processes (here, a unit reuse process, a recycling process, and a disposal process). First, the process of the movement destination of the part is determined for each part (step S131). One entity is divided into the number of processes determined in step S131 (step S132). Each divided entity moves to one of the above three processes (step S133).

  FIG. 38 is a flowchart showing the processing procedure of the product reuse process. The product reuse process is executed for the entity that has shifted from the collection process in step S4 of FIG. In FIG. 38, an inventory process (steps S151 and S152) is also included.

  In step S4 of FIG. 29, the product reuse process immediately moves to the entity that has moved from the collection process, and when the inventory process is performed in a state where it can be reused (pre-stock process), the product reuse process has shifted from the collection process. There is a case where an entity is temporarily set as a stock product and reuse processing is performed after the allocation is applied (post-allocation processing) (step S141).

  In any case, in the reuse process of step S142, when replacing a part with an insufficient useful life included in the entity transferred from the collection process with a reuse unit (reuse part) or a new unit (part) Calculate the environmental impact, cost, and revenue generated in the future. That is, the entity subjected to the reuse process in step S142 is the entity assigned in step S18 of the manufacturing process in FIG. 30, and the environmental load, cost, and profit calculated in step S142 are the steps of the manufacturing process in FIG. This is the environmental load, cost and profit generated when a reuse product is allocated in S18.

  In the reuse process in step S142, first, the remaining service life of each part included in the entity to be processed is calculated (step S142a). Referring to the attribute table of the parts included in the entity (see FIG. 31 (b)), the market segment (sales plan) where the entity is scheduled to be introduced in the part service life and manufacturing process of each part included in the entity Compare the duration of use. Here, as in step S16 of FIG. 30, the component remaining service life is divided by the product use frequency coefficient (see FIG. 24) determined for the target market segment to obtain the substantial remaining service life. It then compares the substantial product life expectancy of this in-stock product with the period of use in the target market segment. When the substantial useful life of a part is less than the service life, it is necessary to replace the part with a reuse part. Therefore, when there is a similar useful remaining life as described above in the inventory part over the service period (step S142b), the inventory part is allocated (step S142c).

  Of the parts included in the entity to be processed, the attribute (see FIG. 31B) of the part replaced with the reuse part (stock part) or the newly manufactured part is the attribute of the stock part or newly manufactured part. Changed to the attribute of the part.

  If none of the parts in stock has a substantial remaining useful life exceeding the service life, a new part is manufactured (step S142d). Thereafter, the environmental load, cost, and profit in each of the above steps S142c and S142d are calculated from the equations (1) and (2) (step S142e). Here, the environmental load, cost and profit are calculated in units (parts).

  In the inventory process, an entity that has been transferred from the use process is retained until it is allocated from the manufacturing process or the like, and the actual number of products included in the retained entity is the product inventory number.

  In the inventory process, the entity that exists in the inventory process updates its product age while it stays. Then, when the remaining value life obtained by subtracting the product age at that time from the longest value life of each of the market segments is less than or equal to the pre-specified value, the entity moves to the disassembly process (Steps S151 to S152).

  FIG. 39 is a flowchart showing the processing procedure of the unit (component) reuse process. The unit reuse process is executed for the entity that has shifted from the dismantling process in step S4 of FIG. The unit reuse process shown in FIG. 39 includes a parts inventory process.

  In step S4 of FIG. 29, the unit reuse process immediately calculates the environmental load, cost / revenue for the entity that has moved from the dismantling process (step S162), and puts it in a reusable state (stock preprocessing). ) And the entity transferred from the dismantling process once as parts inventory, and the environmental load, cost / revenue are calculated after the allocation is applied (post-allocation process) (step S161).

  In the unit reuse process, the entity that has been transferred from the disassembly process is retained until it is allocated from the product reuse process. For a staying entity, update its product age while staying. When the inventory amount of the parts is equal to or greater than a predetermined upper limit value of the inventory amount (inventory allowable amount), the process proceeds to the disposal process in order from the entity with the smallest unit useful life (step S163). For inventory parts (entities) that are within the allowable inventory range, the environmental load, cost, and profit are calculated from formulas (1) and (2) when they are allocated from the product reuse process or when they are transferred from the disassembly process. (Step S162).

  FIG. 40 is a flowchart showing the processing procedure of the recycling process. The recycling process is executed for the entity that has shifted from the dismantling process in step S4 of FIG. Note that the recycling process shown in FIG. 40 includes a material inventory process.

  In step S4 of FIG. 29, the recycling process immediately calculates the environmental load, cost, and profit for the entity that has moved from the dismantling process (step S172), and puts it in stock in a state where it can be used as a recycled material (inventory). There is a case of pre-processing) and a case where an entity that has shifted from the dismantling process is temporarily in stock, and the environmental load, cost, and profit are calculated after the allocation is applied (post-allocation processing) (step S171).

  In the recycling process, the entity that has been transferred from the dismantling process is retained until it is allocated from the manufacturing process and the unit reuse process. When the stock amount of the recycled material is equal to or larger than the predetermined upper limit value (stock allowance amount), the surplus is transferred to the disposal process (step S173). For the inventory recycling material (entity) within the allowable inventory amount, the environmental load, the cost / revenue are calculated from the formulas (1) and (2) when the allocation is made or the process is shifted from the dismantling process (Step 1). S172).

  Next, the processing operation of the simulation execution unit 2 will be specifically described based on the sales / collection plan shown in FIG.

  For example, when the current time is the 0th month, 3 as shown in FIG. 31 based on the first sales plan that 300 PCs B are shipped to the “enterprise” segment and shipped in the 0th month by the manufacturing process. Two entities “Entity 1” to “Entity 3” are generated.

  Thereafter, when the current time is the 24th month, 300 personal computers B delivered to the “enterprise” segment are recovered by the recovery process. That is, as shown in FIG. 36, in the collection process, “entity 1” to “entity 3” are collected from the “enterprise” segment, and the remaining useful life and product age are calculated for each entity (step S120). That is, the remaining useful life of “entity 1” to “entity 3” is “96” obtained by subtracting the usage period “24” in the “enterprise” segment from the original remaining usable life “120”. The product age is “24”. The attribute table is updated with these calculation results (see FIG. 32A).

  “Entity 1” to “Entity 3” are all collected (step S121). Since it is a rental business (step S122), the process proceeds to step S123. The remaining useful life of “Entity 1” to “Entity 3” is currently “96” (because it is greater than or equal to the specified value), and the market segment with the longest value life among a plurality of market segments (in the “education facility” segment) 72 months), the remaining lifetime of the entity is 72−24 = 68, which is equal to or greater than the specified value. Therefore, “entity 1” to “entity 3” shift to the product reuse process.

  After that, when the current time is the 25th month, the second sales plan of shipping 200 PCs B to the “Individual / Home” segment and the 25th month, and the “Education Facility” segment, according to the manufacturing process. The third sales plan is to ship 200 PCs B in the 25th month. At this time, the second sales plan is first selected from the market entry rule shown in FIG. 28 (step S13 in FIG. 13). The second sales plan is a rental business (step S14), and currently there is a product inventory of “entity 1” to “entity 3” (step S15), and (substantial) product durability of these product inventory. The remaining life [current useful remaining life “96” / “individual / household” segment product use frequency coefficient “0.2”] is longer than the usage period “24 months” of the second sales plan (step S16). First, “entity 1” is allocated (step S18). The attribute data of “entity 1” is updated. Next, “entity 2” is allocated (step S14 to step S18). As a result, the attribute data of “entity 2” is updated. As a result, an entity corresponding to the number of units shipped in the second sales plan is obtained.

  Next, a third sales plan is selected in step S13. The third sales plan is a rental business (step S14), and there is currently a product inventory of “entity 3” (step S15), and the (substantial) product useful remaining life of this product inventory is Since there is a usage period “24 months” or more of the sales plan 3 (step S16), “entity 3” is allocated first (step S18). The attribute data of “Entity 3” is updated. Thereafter, since there is no product inventory (step S15), the shortage of 100 units shipped in the third sales plan is compensated by new manufacturing. That is, a new “entity 4” is generated (step S14 to step S17). Thus, an entity corresponding to the number of units shipped in the third sales plan is obtained.

  The entity attribute table at this time is shown in FIG. At this time, the attribute data of the part (unit) included in the newly generated “entity 4” is added to the attribute table of FIG.

  Next, the remaining service life of each part (unit) included in the allocated “entity 1” to “entity 3” is calculated by the product reuse process. FIG. 32B shows an attribute table updated with the result and the attribute data of the part (unit) included in the newly generated “entity 4”.

  As described above, according to the evaluation system in the cyclic product life cycle targeting the above-mentioned multiple markets, it is used in each market for a plurality of markets with different customer requirements (for example, value life) for the product group. Based on the remaining service life of the product group after the elapse of the period and the value remaining life of the product group after the usage period in each market, the order of the product group is determined. Evaluate the environmental impact and cost / revenue in the recycling product life cycle when it is put on the market. The input order of the collected product group is determined so that the product group can be efficiently reused (in other words, the profit obtained from one product group is high). In a reuse business that is put into different market segments, it is possible to accurately evaluate the impact on business revenue and the environmental impact in the state where the highest profit is expected. In addition, it is possible to predict and evaluate business revenue and environmental impact when products are reused multiple times in different market segments. Furthermore, the evaluation results are effective when planning a new reuse project.

  In the above embodiment, the case where the market is classified based on the value life as a customer request has been described. However, the present invention is not limited to this, and other customer requests such as the height of specifications required for the product group of each market. Even when the market is classified based on the above, the same effect as described above can be obtained.

  The method of the present invention described in the embodiment of the present invention is a program that can be executed by a computer, such as a magnetic disk (flexible disk, hard disk, etc.), an optical disk (CD-ROM, DVD, etc.), a semiconductor memory, etc. It can be stored in a medium and distributed.

  Note that the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiment as it is, and can be embodied by modifying the constituent elements without departing from the scope of the invention in the implementation stage. In addition, various inventions can be formed by appropriately combining a plurality of constituent elements disclosed in the embodiment. For example, some components may be deleted from all the components shown in the embodiment. Furthermore, constituent elements over different embodiments may be appropriately combined.

The figure which showed the structural example of the circulation type business evaluation system which concerns on embodiment of this invention. The figure for demonstrating the delivery time and collection time of a product sales and collection plan. The figure which showed an example of sales and collection plan data. The figure which showed an example of product data. The figure which showed an example of LCA data. The figure which showed an example of profit and cost data. The flowchart for demonstrating the procedure which determines the standard change period of collection | recovery time. The flowchart for demonstrating a life cycle modeling procedure. The figure which showed an example of the process flow. The figure which showed the example of a display of a variable area setting screen. The flowchart for demonstrating the outline of a simulation execution procedure. The figure which showed the example of a display of a simulation result, and represented the carbon dioxide emission amount according to a process in time series. The figure which shows the example of a display of a simulation result, and represents the stock number of reuse products (the number of reuse object product stock) in time series. The figure which showed the example of a display of a simulation result, and represented the environmental efficiency in time series. The figure which showed the example of a display of a simulation result, and represented sales (revenue) in time series. The figure which showed the example of a display of a simulation result, and represented the cost in time series. The figure which showed the solution series according to the standard change period obtained by collection plan optimization processing. The figure which showed an example of the decision support graph. The flowchart for demonstrating the collection plan optimization process procedure in reuse business operation. The figure which showed the other example of calculation condition data. The figure which showed an example of background environmental load data. The figure which showed an example of background cost and profit data. The figure which showed the other example of sales and collection plan data. The figure which showed an example of market segment data. The figure which showed the other example of product data. The figure which showed the other example of components (unit) data. Diagram showing products that can be introduced into each market segment and their priorities. The figure which showed the market entry rule typically. The flowchart for demonstrating the processing operation of a circulation type business evaluation system. The flowchart for demonstrating a manufacturing process process. (A) The figure shows the attribute table which stores the attribute data of the entity in the 0th month, (b) The figure which showed the attribute data which stores the attribute data of the unit. (A) The figure shows the attribute table which stores the attribute data of the entity in the 25th month, (b) The figure which showed the attribute data which stores the attribute data of the unit. The flowchart for demonstrating the outline of each process processing. The flowchart for demonstrating a test process process. The flowchart for demonstrating use process processing. The flowchart for demonstrating a collection | recovery process process. The flowchart for demonstrating a dismantling process process. The flowchart for demonstrating a manufacturing reuse process process. The flowchart for demonstrating a unit reuse process process. The flowchart for demonstrating a recycling process process.

Explanation of symbols

  DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 ... Life cycle modeling part, 1a ... Calculation condition input part, 1b ... Sales / collection plan input part, 1c ... Process model setting part, 2 ... Simulation execution part, 2a ... Process processing part, 3 ... User interface part, 4 ... Sales / collection plan data storage unit, 5 ... product data storage unit, 6 ... LCA data storage unit, 7 ... cost / revenue data storage unit, 11 ... data storage unit, 21 ... collection time variable area setting unit, 22 ... collection Plan optimization unit, 23 ... decision support unit, 24 ... external storage device.

Claims (8)

In a recycling product life cycle in which a product group collected from one of a plurality of markets is reused and put into another market, a recovery plan planning support device that supports the planning of collection of the product group from each market Because
And means for setting a plurality of change period for the recovery time of the sale and recovery plan that specifies a recovery time and delivery time of the products for each market,
For each of the plurality of change periods,
(A) generating a set of collection plans that randomly specify which collection period of the plurality of markets is to be changed ;
(B) Each time a collection plan collection is generated , the collection time in the market designated by each collection plan included in the collection is based on the sales / collection plan changed in the change period. When a predetermined calculation time has elapsed in the recycling product life cycle in which the product group is put into the plurality of markets , (1) sales of the collection plan, (2) the sales, Cumulative number of inventory product groups that have migrated from the usage process to the inventory process and stayed in the inventory process among multiple processes including manufacturing, use, recovery, inventory, and reuse during the recycling product life cycle The inventory turnover rate of each collection plan obtained by dividing the value by the value obtained by multiplying the price per product in stock by the value, and (3) the environmental load generated within the calculation time for the sales amount Obtained by dividing A calculation process to calculate one of the environmental efficiency of each collection plan as a management analysis index value,
(C) Two collection plan selected from the set based on the management analysis index value of each collection plan calculated by the calculation process until the management analysis index value reaches a predetermined threshold value And generating two different new collection plan plans to generate a new collection plan collection set, and the calculation process for the collection plan collection generated by the generation process, The means of optimizing the collection plan,
For each of the plurality of change periods, the analysis index value calculated by the calculation process with respect to the change in the optimal value of the analysis index value and the collection plan draft in each set generated, obtained by the optimization unit. Display means for displaying a graph for comparing the rate of change;
A collection planning support device including In a recycling product life cycle in which a product group collected from one of a plurality of markets is reused and put into another market, a recovery plan planning support device that supports the planning of collection of the product group from each market Because
And means for setting the change period for the recovery time of the sale and recovery plan that specifies a recovery time and delivery time of the products for each market,
(A) generating a set of collection plans that randomly specify which collection period of the plurality of markets is to be changed ;
(B) Every time a collection plan collection is generated , the collection time in the market designated by each collection plan included in the collection is based on the sales / recovery plan changed in the change period. When a predetermined calculation time has elapsed in the recycling product life cycle in which the product group is put into the plurality of markets , (1) sales of the collection plan, (2) the sales, Cumulative number of inventory product groups that have migrated from the usage process to the inventory process and stayed in the inventory process among multiple processes including manufacturing, use, recovery, inventory, and reuse during the recycling product life cycle The inventory turnover rate of each collection plan obtained by dividing the value by the value obtained by multiplying the price per product in stock by the value, and (3) the environmental load generated within the calculation time for the sales amount Obtained by dividing A calculation process to calculate one of the environmental efficiency of each collection plan as a management analysis index value,
(C) Until the management analysis index value calculated in the calculation process reaches a predetermined threshold, based on the management analysis index value of each collection plan calculated in the calculation process, from the set A generation process for generating a set of new recovery plan proposals by crossing the two selected recovery plan proposals to generate two different recovery plan proposals, and a recovery plan proposal generated by the generation process Optimization means for repeating the calculation processing for a set of
A selection means for selecting a collection plan with the highest management analysis index value from among collection plans in each set obtained by the optimization means;
Means for changing the collection time in the market designated by the collection plan selected by the selection means in the sales / collection plan only by the change period ;
A collection planning support device including The collection plan planning support device according to claim 1, further comprising means for selecting a change period in which a change rate of the management analysis index value with respect to a change in the collection plan is the smallest among the plurality of change periods. In order to support the planning of the collection of products from each market in the recycle product lifecycle in which the products collected from one of the multiple markets are reused and put into other markets ,
A setting means for setting a plurality of change periods for the collection time of the sales / collection plan that determines the delivery time and collection time of the product group for each market;
For each of the plurality of change periods, an optimization means for optimizing a collection plan that specifies which collection period of the plurality of markets is to be changed;
Display means for displaying the result obtained by the optimization means;
A recovery plan planning support method in a recovery plan planning support device comprising:
The setting means setting the plurality of change periods;
For each of the plurality of change periods, the optimization means
(A) generating a set of collection plans that randomly specify which collection period of the plurality of markets is to be changed;
(B) Each time a collection plan collection is generated, the collection time in the market designated by each collection plan included in the collection is based on the sales / collection plan changed in the change period. When a predetermined calculation time has elapsed in the recycling product life cycle in which the product group is put into the plurality of markets, (1) sales of the collection plan, (2) the sales, Cumulative number of inventory product groups that have migrated from the usage process to the inventory process and stayed in the inventory process among multiple processes including manufacturing, use, recovery, inventory, and reuse during the recycling product life cycle The inventory turnover rate of each collection plan obtained by dividing the value by the value obtained by multiplying the price per product in stock by the value, and (3) the environmental load generated within the calculation time for the sales amount Obtained by dividing A calculation process to calculate one of the environmental efficiency of each collection plan as a management analysis index value,
(C) Two recovery plan proposals selected from the set based on the management analysis index value of each recovery plan plan calculated in the calculation process until the management analysis index value reaches a predetermined threshold value And generating two different new collection plan plans to generate a new collection plan collection set, and the calculation process for the collection plan collection generated by the generation process, An optimization step that repeats
The display means is calculated in the calculation process for the change of the optimum value of the analysis index value and the collection plan proposed in each set generated in the optimization step for each of the plurality of change periods. Displaying a graph for comparing the rate of change of the analysis index value;
Collection plan support method including In order to support the planning of the collection of products from each market in the recycle product lifecycle in which the products collected from one of the multiple markets are reused and put into other markets ,
A setting means for setting a change period for the collection time of the sales / collection plan that determines the delivery time and collection time of the product group for each market;
For each of the plurality of change periods, an optimization means for optimizing a collection plan that specifies which collection period of the plurality of markets is to be changed;
A recovery plan planning support method in a recovery plan planning support device comprising:
The setting means setting the plurality of change periods;
Generating a set of collection plans in which the optimization means randomly designates which collection time of the plurality of markets is to be changed; and
Each time the optimization unit generates a collection plan collection plan, the sales / collection plan proposal in which the collection time in the market designated by each collection plan proposal included in the collection is changed in the change period. (1) Sales amount of the collection plan, and (2) Sales amount when a predetermined calculation time elapses in the recycling-type product life cycle in which the product group is introduced into the plurality of markets based on Out of a plurality of processes including manufacturing, use, recovery, inventory, and reuse in the recycling product life cycle, and Inventory turnover rate of each collection plan obtained by dividing the cumulative number of units by the value obtained by multiplying the price per product in stock, and (3) generating the sales amount within the calculation time Divide by environmental load Performing a calculation process for calculating one of the eco-efficiency of each collection plan obtained as a result as a management analysis index value;
The optimization means selects two of the sets selected from the set based on the management analysis index value of each collection plan calculated by the calculation process until the management analysis index value reaches a predetermined threshold value. Crossing the collection plan proposals to generate two different new collection plan proposals to generate a new collection plan collection set, and the collection plan proposal generated by the generation process An optimization step that repeats the calculation process;
When the management index value reaches the threshold, the optimization unit selects a collection plan with the highest management analysis index value from the collection plans obtained in each set, and
The optimization means changing the collection time in the market designated by the selected collection plan in the sales / collection plan by the change period ; and
Collection plan support method including 5. The recovery plan planning according to claim 4 , further comprising a step of selecting, from among the plurality of change periods, a change period in which the rate of change of the management analysis index value with respect to the change of the recovery plan proposal is the smallest. Support method.   A collection plan that supports the planning of collection of the product group from each market in a recycle product life cycle in which a product group collected from one of a plurality of markets is reused and put into another market. A program for functioning as a planning support device,
  The computer,
  A setting means for setting a plurality of change periods for the collection time of the sales / collection plan that determines the delivery time and collection time of the product group for each market;
  For each of the plurality of change periods,
    (A) generating a set of collection plans that randomly specify which collection period of the plurality of markets is to be changed;
    (B) Each time a collection plan collection is generated, the collection time in the market designated by each collection plan included in the collection is based on the sales / collection plan changed in the change period. (1) Sales of the collection plan at the time when a predetermined calculation time elapses in the recycling product life cycle in which the product group is introduced into the plurality of markets, and (2) the sales are Cumulative value of the number of inventory product groups that have migrated from the use process to the inventory process and stay in the inventory process among a plurality of processes including manufacturing, use, collection, inventory, and reuse in the product life cycle Divided by the value obtained by multiplying the price per product in stock by the inventory turnover rate of each collection plan, and (3) Divide the sales by the environmental load generated within the calculation time. Obtained by A calculation process that calculates one of the environmental efficiencies of each collection plan as a management analysis index value,
    (C) Two collection plan selected from the set based on the management analysis index value of each collection plan calculated by the calculation process until the management analysis index value reaches a predetermined threshold value And generating two different new collection plan plans to generate a new collection plan collection set, and the calculation process for the collection plan collection generated by the generation process, The means of optimizing the collection plan,
  For each of the plurality of change periods, the analysis index value calculated by the calculation process with respect to the change in the optimal value of the analysis index value and the collection plan draft in each set generated, obtained by the optimization unit. Display means for displaying a graph for comparing the rate of change;
  Program to function as.   A collection plan that supports the planning of collection of the product group from each market in a recycle product life cycle in which a product group collected from one of a plurality of markets is reused and put into another market. A program for functioning as a planning support device,
  The computer,
  A setting means for setting a change period for the collection time of the sales / collection plan that defines the delivery time and collection time of the product group for each market,
  (A) generating a set of collection plans that randomly specify which collection period of the plurality of markets is to be changed;
  (B) Every time a collection plan collection is generated, the collection time in the market designated by each collection plan included in the collection is based on the sales / recovery plan changed in the change period. (1) Sales of the collection plan at the time when a predetermined calculation time elapses in the recycling product life cycle in which the product group is introduced into the plurality of markets, and (2) the sales are Cumulative value of the number of inventory product groups that have migrated from the use process to the inventory process and stay in the inventory process among a plurality of processes including manufacturing, use, collection, inventory, and reuse in the product life cycle Divided by the value obtained by multiplying the price per product in stock by the inventory turnover rate of each collection plan, and (3) Divide the sales by the environmental load generated within the calculation time. Obtained by A calculation process that calculates one of the environmental efficiencies of each collection plan as a management analysis index value,
    (C) Two collection plan selected from the set based on the management analysis index value of each collection plan calculated by the calculation process until the management analysis index value reaches a predetermined threshold value And generating two different new collection plan plans to generate a new collection plan collection set, and the calculation process for the collection plan collection generated by the generation process, The means of optimizing the collection plan,
  A selection means for selecting a collection plan with the highest management analysis index value from among collection plans in each set obtained by the optimization means,
  Change means for changing the collection time in the market designated by the collection plan selected by the selection means in the sales / collection plan only by the change period,
  Program to function as.

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