JP3017154B2 - Earthquake damage estimation system - Google Patents

Description

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0001]

The present invention relates to an earthquake damage estimating system for estimating an earthquake damage distribution.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art An earthquake damage estimation system is a system capable of estimating and calculating the distribution of damage in an entire area from epicenter data. At times,
It is used as a means to grasp the damage situation macroscopically.

[0003] Here, as an earthquake damage estimating system mainly used when drafting a regional disaster prevention plan in normal times, a system described in Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. Hei 8-329043 (hereinafter referred to as a conventional example) is conventionally known. No.

[0004] The conventional earthquake damage estimation system is an earthquake damage simulation prediction device for simulating damage caused by an earthquake having an arbitrary size at an arbitrary position using past data and the like.

The conventional system handles map data, building data, and geological data as data, and includes storage means for storing these data and display means for displaying the contents of the map data. And an earthquake position setting means for setting an epicenter and an epicenter scale. Here, the map data includes mesh map data that enables display of a mesh map partitioned into a grid at predetermined distance intervals, and further enables selection of enlargement or reduction of a display range. Data. The building data is data relating to a building structure, and the geological data is data indicating the properties of the ground for each section in the mesh map.

In the conventional system having such a configuration, the building data and the geological data are registered in advance in the storage means, and are stored in the arbitrary epicenter data set by the earthquake position setting means and the storage means. According to the geological data that is being calculated, calculate the acceleration that indicates the strength of shaking for each section, calculate the degree of damage to each building from the acceleration and building data, and display the calculation result on a mesh map By doing so, it will be possible to grasp the damage situation of the simulated earthquake.

[0007]

However, as described above, the conventional system is assumed to be used in normal times as described above, so that it is basically applied to the initial response immediately after an earthquake. Had an unsuitable configuration. For this reason, if the conventional system is forcibly applied to the first-response emergency activities, several problems as described below will occur.

It is a well-known fact that initial response is urgent. However, in the system of the related art, since it is premised on the calculation that the epicenter data is given to the calculation formula before the operation, the operation cannot be started until the epicenter data is determined. That is, the conventional system is
It has the property of requiring an inevitable predetermined time from the configuration before the start of the calculation, and as a result, it has not been possible to respond quickly to the initial response emergency action.

Further, the relational expression of the magnitude of the shaking used in the calculation in the conventional example is based on only the past earthquake data, and the magnitude of the shaking actually observed in the area immediately after the earthquake occurs. It does not reflect that. On the other hand, past earthquake data varies, and the intensity of shaking in a new earthquake does not always match the statistical average value of past earthquake data. Therefore, in the conventional system, it was difficult to output a highly reliable operation result.

[0010] Further, the conventional system has a problem that it is impossible to calculate an earthquake generated on a relatively shallow fault plane near the surface of the ground. Generally, it is known that in this kind of earthquake, the entire fault plane having a wide distance becomes the epicenter. However, the conventional system is
One source is the only input parameter.
Therefore, in the system of the conventional example, when the epicenter has a width in terms of distance as in this type of earthquake, it is not possible to obtain an output result with a desired accuracy.

Therefore, the present invention is an earthquake damage estimating system applicable to initial response emergency activities, which can obtain a highly reliable calculation result and can also be applied to an earthquake generated on a relatively shallow fault plane near the ground surface. An object of the present invention is to provide an earthquake damage estimation system capable of outputting a calculation result with desired accuracy.

It is another object of the present invention to provide a seismic damage estimation method applied to the above-mentioned system, and a recording medium capable of constituting the earthquake damage estimation system together with an arithmetic processing unit.

[0013]

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION In order to solve the above-mentioned problems, the present invention provides an initial response immediately after the occurrence of an urgent earthquake, and the magnitude of the shaking actually observed by a plurality of seismometers in the area. Based on (measured seismic intensity, maximum acceleration, maximum speed, etc.), it provides a means to macroscopically grasp the damage situation by calculating the damage distribution of the whole area at high speed and with high accuracy.

Specifically, the solution according to the present invention is shown below.

That is, according to the present invention, as a first earthquake damage estimation system, at a plurality of observation points for observing an earthquake,
An earthquake damage estimation system for estimating seismic damage in the estimation target area, each of the plurality of obtained measured data being input, and an input means for inputting the plurality of measured data; Storage means for storing in advance the basic information used for the calculation of the earthquake damage estimation, including relational expression data indicating the relationship between the epicenter distance, which is the distance at, and the intensity of the earthquake tremor, and a hypocenter based on the plurality of measured data. An arithmetic processing device for calculating the data and applying the calculation result to the relational expression data to calculate a mesh-like damage distribution, and receiving the calculation result from the arithmetic processing device and displaying the result as an earthquake damage estimation result And a display means for performing the operation.

According to the present invention, as the second earthquake damage estimation system, in the first earthquake damage estimation system, the arithmetic processing unit may calculate a plurality of temporary earthquake sources when calculating the earthquake source data. Assuming that, according to a plurality of temporary hypocenter data according to each of the plurality of temporary hypocenters, the theoretical curve obtained by substituting the temporary hypocenter data into the relational expression data and the measured data related to the magnitude of shaking The process of calculating the sum of the errors is performed for each of the plurality of the hypocenter data and the plurality of the hypocenter data, and the one of the hypocenter data that minimizes the sum of the errors is calculated from the calculation result. The seismic damage estimation system is characterized in that it is determined by estimation.

According to the present invention, as a third earthquake damage estimation system, in any one of the above earthquake damage estimation systems, the arithmetic processing unit may define the epicenter position as a linear position coordinate on the ground surface. And calculating the epicenter distance as the shortest distance on the ground from the linear epicenter position, and substituting the calculation result into the relational expression data to calculate the damage distribution. The characteristic earthquake damage estimation system is obtained.

Further, according to the present invention, as a fourth earthquake damage estimation system, in any one of the first to third earthquake damage estimation systems, the display means displays the earthquake damage estimation result visually. A seismic damage estimation system characterized in that it is displayed in a graph so that it can be easily grasped.

As disclosed above, in the earthquake damage estimating system of the present invention, first, an arbitrary and plural temporary hypocenters are assumed, and each of the temporary hypocenters is determined based on measured data in each observation area. Obtain the hypocenter data (the epicenter location, epicenter depth, and magnitude indicating the magnitude of the earthquake), determine the epicenter data for the estimated epicenter from the multiple epicenter data, and then use the result as the epicenter distance And the magnitude of the swaying strength, it is possible to obtain the mesh-like damage distribution at high speed by simple calculation. Here, in the earthquake damage estimation system of the present invention, a general correlation equation in which the slope of a curve has a theoretical basis based on past earthquake data is used as a relational equation used for calculation.

More specifically, the sum of the error between the theoretical curve obtained by giving the temporary hypocenter data to this correlation equation and the actual measurement data observed in each observation area is obtained for each temporary hypocenter data. The temporary epicenter data when the sum of the errors is minimized is determined as the epicenter data, that is, the estimated value of the epicenter. The theoretical curve obtained according to such a judgment method is different from a mere approximation curve obtained by mathematically processing only the actual measurement data, and has a theoretical basis for its gradient, while being optimized with the actual measurement data. Therefore, it can be said that this reflects the actually observed shaking strength. Therefore, in the earthquake damage estimation system of the present invention, it is possible to perform damage estimation with high accuracy, which is hardly affected by measurement errors, despite being close to actual measurement data.

Further, in the present invention, the epicenter position, which is one element of the epicenter data (and the temporary epicenter data), is given a linear width instead of a single point. As a result, the earthquake damage estimation system of the present invention can be applied to an earthquake that occurred along a fault plane near the surface of the ground, which could not be estimated from a point-like source, and the accuracy of the theoretical curve can be improved. .

Further, in the present invention, the estimation result of the earthquake damage is displayed in a graph so as to be easily intuitively grasped. Therefore, according to the present invention, it is possible to visually confirm the spread of the error between the obtained theoretical curve and the actually measured data, and to intuitively grasp the degree of reliability of the estimation result.

Note that the concept of the present invention can be embodied as a recording medium storing a program for causing an information processing apparatus to execute the estimation method.

That is, according to the present invention, an information processing apparatus having a storage means for storing data and executing a process according to a program is actually observed at a plurality of observation points in a target area for estimation of earthquake damage. Based on the actual measurement data as a result, in order to estimate the damage distribution in the estimation target area, a plurality of temporary hypocenters are assumed, and based on each of the plurality of actual measurement data, a plurality of hypocenters relating to the plurality of epicenters are estimated. The first processing for obtaining temporary hypocenter data including the magnitude indicating the epicenter position and the magnitude of the epicenter, respectively, and the relational expression theoretically indicating the epicenter distance and the magnitude of the quake, Based on the seismic data, a general correlation formula is used in which the slope of the curve has a theoretical basis. By substituting each of the temporary hypocenter data, a second process of calculating a theoretical curve according to each of the temporary hypocenter data, and a process of each of the theoretical curves, which are the result of the second process, and the plurality of measured data are performed. A third process for calculating a sum of errors; and a third process among the plurality of temporary hypocenter data.
And estimating the provisional hypocenter data according to the theoretical curve that minimizes the sum of the errors calculated by the above processing as the epicenter data relating to the epicenter, and estimating the damage distribution on the mesh. A recording medium storing a program including an instruction to be executed by the information processing device, the recording medium being readable by the information processing device is obtained.

Here, the epicenter data handled by the recording medium includes, as one element thereof, an epicenter position indicating the position of the epicenter on the ground surface, and the epicenter position is:
Needless to say, it may be a linear one.

[0026]

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS In describing an earthquake damage estimation system according to an embodiment of the present invention, terms used in the description will first be described with reference to FIGS.
This will be described with reference to FIG.

FIG. 1 shows definitions of terms such as epicenter (center of epicenter), epicenter depth, epicenter distance, observation point, ground surface, surface geology, and hard base, and their relationships. As can be understood with reference to FIG. 1, the intersection of the line perpendicular to the ground surface and passing through the epicenter and the ground surface is the epicenter (or epicenter position).
The depth from the epicenter to the epicenter is called the epicenter depth. The point on the surface of the earth where the earthquake is observed is called the observation point, and the distance from the epicenter to the observation point is called the epicenter distance. Furthermore, the geology at a relatively shallow fault plane near the surface is called surface geology, and the hard geology located deeper than the surface geology is called hard basement.

FIG. 2 shows the epicenter position and epicenter distance when a linear epicenter is considered. As described above, in the case of an earthquake that occurred on a relatively shallow fault plane near the ground surface, the entire fault plane with a wide distance becomes the epicenter. Even if the epicenter position is assumed to be a non-point-like shape, simply defining the epicenter distance as the distance from the epicenter position to the observation point will not allow the interpretation of the epicenter distance. There is a risk of doubt. Therefore, as an example, in the case of a linear epicenter, the epicenter position is defined as "the line segment that has moved the linear epicenter vertically to the surface of the ground", and the epicenter distance is "the shortest distance to the epicenter position (line segment). ". still,
It is needless to say that the same definition can be applied to the epicenter distance for hypocenters of other shapes by assuming the form of the epicenter position according to the shape of the epicenter.

Under such a definition, an earthquake damage estimation system according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the drawings.

As shown in FIG. 3, the earthquake damage estimating system according to the embodiment of the present invention includes an earthquake observation device 1 for observing the intensity of shaking at a plurality of points and data such as basic information necessary for calculation. The apparatus includes a storage device 2 for storing, an arithmetic processing device 3 operated by program control, and a display device 4 for outputting an arithmetic result.

The earthquake observation device 1 includes seismometers 11 installed at a plurality of points in the area, a reception processing device 12 for summing up observed data, and a transmission line connecting them.
The measured data relating to the intensity of shaking is transmitted to the arithmetic processing unit 3. Here, the actual measurement data is a physical quantity indicating the strength of the shaking caused by the earthquake, and is a value obtained by observing one of the measured seismic intensity, the maximum acceleration, and the maximum speed on the ground surface.

The storage device 2 stores relational expression data 21 and regional characteristic data 22 in advance as basic information necessary for calculation.

The arithmetic processing unit 3 includes a hypocenter estimation unit 31 and
It has a damage estimation means 33, and has a function of storing and holding the epicenter data 32 and the damage estimation data 34 as the calculation results by these means. The hypocenter estimation means 31 calculates hypocenter data 32 using the actually measured shaking intensity data input from the earthquake observation apparatus 1 and the relational expression data 21 and the regional characteristic data 22 stored in the storage device 2. . The damage estimating means 33 includes the epicenter data 32 calculated by the epicenter estimating means 31 and the relational expression data 21 from the storage device 2.
Then, the mesh-like damage estimation data 34 is calculated using the data and the regional characteristic data 22.

The display device 4 receives the epicenter data 32 from the epicenter estimation unit 31 and the damage estimation data 34 from the damage estimation unit 33, and displays the damage status as a graph that is easy to intuitively grasp. The display device 4 may be a mere display, and may further include a graphic controller that receives the epicenter data 32 and the damage estimation data 34 and controls the display device 4 to display the above-described graph. .

In the earthquake damage estimating system according to the present embodiment having such a configuration, the following processing is performed, and data relating to earthquake damage estimation is displayed on the display device 4. Become. That is, when an earthquake occurs, the seismic intensity meter 11 observes the seismic wave caused by the earthquake and outputs actual measurement data regarding the strength of the shaking. The reception processing device 12 collects measured data from the seismic intensity meter 11 and transmits it to the arithmetic processing device 3. When these data are transmitted from the reception processing device 12 to the arithmetic processing device 3, the epicenter estimating means 31 immediately calculates the epicenter data 32 using the measured data, the relational expression data 21 and the regional characteristic data 22. . Subsequently, the damage estimation means 33 calculates the epicenter data 3
2, and calculates the mesh-like damage estimation data 34 from the relational expression data 21 and the regional characteristic data 22 and outputs it to the display device 4 at the same time. The display device 4 displays the epicenter data 3
2 and a graph showing the damage situation created from the damage estimation data 34 is displayed.

Next, the operation of the epicenter estimating means 31 will be described in detail with reference to the flowchart shown in FIG.

The seismic intensity meter 11 provided in each observation area
The measured data observed in the above is input to the arithmetic processing unit 3 via the reception processing unit 12, and the hypocenter estimation unit 31
(Step S401).

When the measured data is input to the epicenter estimation unit 31, the epicenter estimation unit 31 first uses the regional characteristic data 22 stored in the storage device to calculate the strength of the shaking on the hard base. Then, the actual measurement data is converted into a value on the hard base (step S402).

The strength of shaking on a rigid base is ideally a generalized physical quantity that does not include regional characteristics. For example, the relational expression v _b between the epicenter distance and the base maximum velocity will be described below.
= F (M, d, r) will be described. Note that d indicates the epicenter depth, and M indicates the magnitude indicating the magnitude of the earthquake.

When the maximum surface velocity v (n) is used as the measured data, the maximum surface velocity v (n) is divided by the amplification factor w (n) of the surface geology to obtain the maximum base velocity v (n).
_b (n) [= v (n) ÷ w (n)] can be calculated. Here, the amplification factor w (n) differs depending on the type of surface geology, and is one of the regional characteristic data 22 uniquely determined by the latitude and longitude coordinates.

Next, in performing the calculation, an hypothetical value is given to the epicenter data 32 so that the epicenter data 32
(Step S403). For example, it is assumed that the observation point having the maximum value is the epicenter in the data converted into the value on the hard base in step S402.
That is, since the epicenter data 32 set here relates to a temporary epicenter (central epicenter), it is referred to as temporary epicenter data 32 for convenience. The temporary epicenter data 32 is, similarly to the epicenter data, a line segment (x1, y1)-
This is data including (x2, y2), an epicenter depth d, and each element of magnitude M representing the magnitude of the earthquake.

After the initial setting of the temporary epicenter data 32, the initial value of the temporary epicenter data 32 is substituted into the relational expression data 21 of the epicenter distance and the shaking intensity as a coefficient, and the rigid base at each observation point is obtained. Is obtained theoretically (step S404), that is, the hypocenter data 3
A theoretical curve according to the initial value of 2 is obtained. For example, when the relational expression v _b = f (M, d, r) between the epicenter distance and the base maximum velocity is used, the epicenter position (x1, y1) − (x2, y2)
And the epicenter distance r = f (x1, y1, x2, y2, x (n), y from the coordinates (x (n), y (n)) of each observation point
By calculating (n)) and substituting it into the same equation, the maximum velocity v _b on the rigid base at each observation point can be calculated. Note that the maximum speed v _b here is a theoretical value as described above,
It may be referred to as an initial theoretical value because of the relationship in which iterative processing described later can be performed.

Actual measurement data at each observation point,
The theoretical values at each observation point obtained in step 04 are compared, and the total error is obtained (step S405). For example, a converted from measured data were based maximum speed v _b (n), the foundation maximum velocity v _b which is calculated from the relationship data 21, the error of the sum _{q = Σ (v b -v b} (n)) 2 Ask for.

It is determined whether or not the sum of the errors obtained in step S405 is a minimum value (step S40).
6).

If the sum of the errors is a minimum value in step S406, the corresponding provisional hypocenter data 32 is determined as the hypocenter data 32 relating to the estimated hypocenter, and is recorded in the arithmetic processing unit 3 and the theoretical curve is calculated. The relationship between the error and the actual measurement data is graphed as a graph that can be intuitively grasped, as in the example shown in FIG. 6, and the graph is output to the display device 4 (step S407).

On the other hand, if the result of determination in step S 406 is that the sum of the errors is not the minimum value, the combination of the elements of the temporary hypocenter data 32 is changed (step S 408).
Then, steps S403 to S406 are repeated. Specifically, first, the amount of change of each element of the temporary hypocenter data 32 is increased, and the calculation is repeated over a wide range. Among them, a combination of each element with the smallest sum of errors is obtained as an approximate value. , A small amount is changed in the vicinity thereof to obtain a detailed combination.

Next, the detailed operation of the damage estimation means 33 will be described.
This will be described with reference to the flowchart shown in FIG.

Epicenter data 32 obtained by epicenter estimation means 31
Is substituted into the relational expression data 21 indicating the same expression as the expression used in step S404 as a coefficient, and the epicenter distance is calculated for each mesh-like point in the region, and is used as a variable of the same expression. The strength of the sway of the entire hard base is calculated by a simple calculation (step S501). For example, the maximum base velocity v _b at each mesh-like point (x (m), y (m)) is expressed by the relational expression v _b = f between the epicenter distance and the maximum base velocity.
(M, d, r) and epicenter distance r = f (x1, y1, x2,
y2, x (m), y (m)).

Step S5 is performed for each of the mesh points.
01 and the strength of the shaking on the base determined in step S4
The shaking strength on the ground surface is obtained using the regional characteristic data 22 used in 02. Further, damage estimation data 34 at each point in a mesh is calculated using the intensity of shaking on the ground surface and another regional characteristic data 22 (step S502). For example, using population data a (m) depending on the coordinate position, which is one of the regional characteristic data 22, and the maximum ground surface speed v (m), which is one measure of the intensity of shaking on the ground, The human damage data A (m) = f (v (m), a (m)), which is one element of the estimated data, is calculated. Here, the damage estimation data 34 includes each element such as primary damage (strength of shaking), building damage, and fire damage in addition to the above-mentioned human damage. The distribution tendency with primary damage differs depending on the regional characteristics.

Each element of the damage estimation data 34 obtained in step S502 is recorded in the arithmetic processing device 3 and at the same time, the calculation result is output to the display device 4 (step S50).
3).

By executing the processing as described above, the earthquake damage estimation system according to the present embodiment can estimate earthquake damage at high speed.

Further, the earthquake damage estimation system according to the present embodiment optimizes the relational expression in which the slope of the curve has a theoretical basis based on the past seismic data with the actually measured data. Although it is close to data, it has a feature that it can output a calculation result that is hardly affected by a measurement error.

Further, according to the earthquake damage estimating system according to the present embodiment, even if actual measurement data having a large value cannot be obtained due to, for example, a failure of the measuring seismometer at a location where the shaking near the epicenter is severe, the epicenter of the epicenter can be obtained. Can be estimated. Similarly, it can be estimated when the epicenter is far away and the measured data in the area is smaller than the value near the epicenter. The reason that the system according to the present invention can perform such an estimation is due to the reason that the above-described high-precision damage estimation can be performed, that is, even if actual measurement data is missing, other actual measurement data can be used. This is because this can be compensated.

Also, the earthquake damage estimation system of the present invention
Since the hypocenter estimation was performed by defining the linear epicenter position as an element of the epicenter data, an earthquake that had a width of the epicenter that could not be handled in the conventional example, such as a fault near the ground surface, occurred It can adapt to earthquakes.

The present invention is not limited to only the earthquake damage estimation system according to the above-described embodiment of the present invention, but can be applied to various applications as described below.

For example, the following application is conceivable with respect to the above-described embodiment.

That is, in the above-described embodiment (see FIG. 3), when an earthquake occurs, actual measurement data of the shaking intensity observed by the seismometer 11 is passed from the reception processing device 12 to the arithmetic processing device 3. . Here, when all the measured data are not collected, the arithmetic processing unit 3 executes the same processing as the processing according to the flowcharts shown in FIGS. 4 and 5 with a small number of measured data. Thereafter, when the remaining actual measurement data is received from the reception processing device 12, the same processing as the processing according to the flowcharts shown in FIGS. 4 and 5 is executed again. By performing the stepwise processing for maximizing the use of the actually measured data obtained in this way, it is possible to obtain a calculation result quickly with the acquisition of the actually measured data, and to obtain the accuracy by further obtaining the actually measured data. An improved calculation result can be obtained.

The earthquake damage estimation system according to the above-described embodiment can be modified and applied as a system as shown in FIG.

That is, the earthquake damage estimation system shown in FIG. 7 includes a data input device 5 instead of the earthquake observation device 1 in FIG. The data input device 5 may be a keyboard, a mouse, a touch panel, or another input device.

In a system having such a configuration, when an actual measurement data of shaking intensity inside and outside the area is observed due to the occurrence of an earthquake, the actual measurement data is input from the data input device 5 to the arithmetic processing device 3. Then, in the arithmetic processing unit 3, the same processing as the processing according to the flowcharts shown in FIGS. 2 and 3 is executed. As a result, an effect equivalent to that of the system according to the above-described embodiment can be obtained.

Further, as shown in FIG. 8, it is also possible to apply a seismic damage estimation process according to the concept of the present invention to a recording medium that stores a program that allows an arithmetic processing unit to execute the process.

The recording medium 6 shown in FIG. 8 may be a magnetic disk, an optical disk, a semiconductor memory or any other recording medium as long as it can be read by the information processing device 7. This recording medium stores a program that allows the information processing device 7 to execute the processing described with reference to FIGS. 4 and 5. This program is read from the recording medium 6 into the information processing device 7 and controls the operation in the information processing device 7. The information processing device 7 executes the arithmetic processing device 3 according to the above-described embodiment in accordance with the earthquake damage estimation program.
Execute the same processing as the processing by.

[0063]

According to the present invention, it is possible to quickly estimate earthquake damage. More specifically, in the present invention, by inputting only the actual measurement data of the shaking strength in the area, the epicenter data can be estimated from the plurality of actual measurement data, and thereafter, the damage distribution of the entire area can be calculated by simple calculation. As a result, the earthquake damage estimation system of the present invention can quickly calculate the epicenter information and the damage distribution of the entire area before the occurrence of an earthquake and the issuance of epicenter information by the Japan Meteorological Agency.

Further, the earthquake damage estimation system of the present invention
Highly accurate damage estimation can be performed. That is, in the earthquake damage estimation system of the present invention, since the relational expression giving the theoretical basis to the slope of the curve based on the past earthquake data is optimized by the actually measured data, the system of the present invention is: Although it is close to the actual measurement data, it has a feature that it can output a calculation result which is hardly affected by the measurement error.

Further, according to the present invention, the epicenter can be estimated even if actual measurement data with a large value cannot be obtained due to a failure of the measuring seismometer at a location where the shaking near the epicenter is severe. Similarly, it can be estimated when the epicenter is far away and the measured data in the area is smaller than the value near the epicenter. The reason that the system according to the present invention can perform such an estimation is due to the reason that the above-described high-precision damage estimation can be performed, that is, even if actual measurement data is missing, other actual measurement data can be used. This is because this can be compensated.

Further, the earthquake damage estimation system of the present invention
It can also be applied to earthquakes whose epicenters have a width that could not be handled in the conventional example, for example, earthquakes that occurred on a fault plane near the ground surface. The reason is that the hypocenter is defined by defining the linear epicenter position as an element of the epicenter data.

[Brief description of the drawings]

FIG. 1 is a diagram showing definitions of terms used for describing an embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 2 is a diagram showing definitions of words and phrases as in FIG. 1;

FIG. 3 is a block diagram illustrating a configuration of an earthquake damage estimation system according to an embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing a procedure of a hypocenter estimation process in a hypocenter estimation unit 31 shown in FIG. 3;

FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing a procedure of damage estimation processing in damage estimation means 33 shown in FIG. 3;

FIG. 6 is a graph for making it easier to intuitively grasp epicenter data.

FIG. 7 is a diagram showing a modification of the earthquake damage estimation system shown in FIG.

FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an application example of the earthquake damage estimation system shown in FIG.

[Explanation of symbols]

 DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Earthquake observation device 11 Seismic intensity meter 12 Reception processing device 2 Storage device 21 Relational expression data 22 Regional characteristic data 3 Arithmetic processing device 31 Epicenter estimation means 32 Epicenter data 33 Damage estimation means 34 Damage estimation data 4 Display device 5 Data input device 6 Storage Medium 7 Information processing device

────────────────────────────────────────────────── ─── Continuing on the front page (72) Inventor Masahito Hara 5-7-1 Shiba, Minato-ku, Tokyo NEC Corporation (72) Inventor Hiroshi Shimizu 5-7-1 Shiba, Minato-ku, Tokyo NEC (72) Inventor Hiroshi Kuzuno 5-7-1 Shiba, Minato-ku, Tokyo NEC Corporation (72) Inventor Hiroshi Shibano 5-7-1 Shiba, Minato-ku, Tokyo NEC Corporation ( 72) Inventor Ryuichi Sakamoto 4-7 Nihonbashi Hisamatsu-cho, Chuo-ku, Tokyo Nihonbashi Ebisu Building Disaster Prevention and Information Research Institute Co., Ltd. 56) References JP-A-6-324160 (JP, A) JP-A-8-329043 (JP, A) JP-A-8-75865 (JP, A) (58) Fields investigated (Int. Cl. ⁷ , DB name) G01V 1/2 8 G01V 1/00

Claims (10)

(57) [Claims] An earthquake damage estimating system for estimating earthquake damage in an estimation target area by inputting a plurality of obtained actual measurement data at a plurality of observation points for observing an earthquake, respectively, Input means for inputting the information, and relational expression data indicating the relationship between the epicenter distance, which is the distance on the ground from the epicenter position, and the intensity of the shaking of the earthquake. Storage means for storing, and an arithmetic processing device for calculating hypocenter data based on the plurality of actually measured data, and applying a calculation result to the relational expression data to calculate a mesh-like damage distribution, When calculating the epicenter data, assuming a plurality of temporary epicenters, and according to the plurality of temporary epicenter data pertaining to each of the plurality of temporary epicenters, convert the temporary epicenter data into the relational expression. The process of calculating the sum of the error between the theoretical curve obtained by substituting the data and the measured data related to the magnitude of the sway is executed for each of the plurality of temporary source data and the plurality of source data, and the calculation result An arithmetic processing unit for estimating and determining one of the temporary epicenter data as the epicenter data relating to the epicenter, which minimizes the sum of the errors, and receiving the arithmetic result from the arithmetic processing unit and displaying the result as an earthquake damage estimation result. An earthquake damage estimation system, comprising: 2. The earthquake damage estimation system according to claim 1, wherein the arithmetic processing unit defines the epicenter position as a linear position coordinate on the surface of the ground, and defines the epicenter distance as the linear epicenter position. And calculating the damage distribution by calculating the distance as the shortest distance from the ground surface on the ground surface and substituting the calculation result into the relational expression data. 3. The earthquake damage estimation system according to claim 1, wherein the display means displays the earthquake damage estimation result in a graph so that the result can be easily grasped visually. An earthquake damage estimation system, characterized in that: 4. An estimation method for estimating a damage distribution in the estimation target area based on actual measurement data as a result of actually being observed at a plurality of observation points in the estimation target area of the earthquake damage, Assuming a plurality of temporary hypocenters, based on the plurality of actual measurement data, a plurality of temporary epicenter data relating to the plurality of temporary epicenters, each including a magnitude indicating an epicenter position and a magnitude of an earthquake. The first step of obtaining the data, and the relational expression that theoretically shows the epicenter distance and the strength of the sway,
By substituting each of the temporary epicenter data, the epicenter data relating to the epicenter is determined, and based on the epicenter data,
And a second step of estimating a damage distribution on the mesh. 5. The method for estimating earthquake damage according to claim 4, wherein the second step has a theoretical basis for the slope of the curve based on past earthquake data as the relational expression. A method for estimating earthquake damage, characterized by utilizing a general correlation formula. 6. The method for estimating earthquake damage according to claim 5, wherein in the second step, a theoretical curve obtained by giving the temporary hypocenter data to the correlation equation, and each of the observations Calculate the sum of the errors with the actual measurement data at each point for each of the temporary hypocenter data, and according to the calculation results,
A method for estimating earthquake damage, wherein one temporary epicenter data that minimizes the sum of the errors is determined as epicenter data, and the epicenter data is used as an estimation result of the epicenter. 7. The method for estimating earthquake damage according to claim 4, wherein the epicenter data and the temporary epicenter data include, as one element thereof, an epicenter position indicating a position of the epicenter on the ground surface. A method for estimating earthquake damage, wherein the epicenter position is indicated by a line. 8. The method for estimating earthquake damage according to claim 4, further comprising: a third step of displaying a result of the estimation in the second step as a graph. Damage estimation method. 9. An information processing apparatus comprising a storage unit for storing data and executing a process according to a program is provided with actual measurement data as a result of actual observation at a plurality of observation points in a target area for estimation of earthquake damage. In order to estimate the damage distribution in the estimation target area based on the above, a plurality of temporary hypocenters are assumed, and based on each of the plurality of actually measured data, a plurality of temporary hypocenter data relating to the plurality of hypocenters are obtained. Based on past earthquake data, a first process for obtaining temporary hypocenter data containing magnitudes indicating the epicenter position and the magnitude of the earthquake, respectively, and a relational expression theoretically indicating the epicenter distance and the intensity of shaking, Using a general correlation equation having a theoretical basis for the slope of the curve, each of the temporary hypocenter data obtained in the first processing is used for the correlation equation. By substituting, a second process for calculating a theoretical curve according to the respective temporary hypocenter data, and calculating a sum of errors between each theoretical curve as a result of the second process and the plurality of measured data. A third process, wherein, among the plurality of temporary source data, the temporary source data corresponding to a theoretical curve that minimizes the sum of the errors calculated by the third process is source data relating to the source; And a fourth process for estimating a damage distribution on a mesh, the program including a command for causing the information processing apparatus to execute the processing, the storage medium being readable by the information processing apparatus. 10. The recording medium according to claim 9, wherein the epicenter data includes, as one element thereof, an epicenter position indicating a position of the epicenter on the ground surface, and the epicenter position is indicated by a line. A recording medium characterized by being recorded.