JP2023130245A - Photovoltaic power generation amount prediction device, method for controlling photovoltaic power generation amount prediction device, and program - Google Patents

Abstract

To more accurately predict the amount of generated power a short time later from now without providing an observation facility for each installation location of a photovoltaic power generation facility.SOLUTION: A photovoltaic power generation amount prediction device determines a first predicted value obtained by predicting the amount of generated power from the present time until a first time point a first time later from the present time, and the device calculates a provisional value of the first predicted value by using a first calculation formula, from the present time until a third time point a third time later from the present time, including second times obtained by equally dividing the first time as a unit, calculates a second predicted value obtained by predicting the amount of generated power for every second time by using a second calculation formula, by using a first graph representing the tendency of a change in the amount of generated power for every first time, calculates a third predicted value obtained by predicting the amount of generated power from a fifth time point the second time earlier than the third time point until the third time point, by using a second graph representing the tendency of a change in the amount of generated power for every second time, calculates a fourth predicted value obtained by predicting the amount of generated power from the fifth time point until the third time point, and calculates the first predicted value by subtracting the difference between the third and fourth predicted values from the provisional value.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 5B

Description

The present invention relates to a solar power generation amount prediction device, a control method and a program for the solar power generation amount prediction device.

In order to stably supply high-quality electricity, electric power companies control the output of generators in each region on a daily basis to balance the supply and demand of electricity.

For example, electric power companies use EDC ( Economical Load Dispatching Control (Economical Load Dispatching Control) and LFC (Load Frequency Control) are performed to finely control the output of the generator (for example, see Patent Document 1).

Japanese Patent Application Publication No. 2013-062953

However, in recent years, solar power generation equipment whose power generation amount fluctuates greatly depending on the amount of solar radiation has rapidly become popular, and this has come to have an impact on the control of the supply and demand balance. Therefore, various technologies for predicting the amount of power generated by solar power generation equipment have been developed.

For example, a technology has been developed that predicts the power generation amount of a solar power generation facility by estimating the solar radiation intensity at the prediction target date and time from cloud movement vectors obtained using images taken of the sky. However, with this technology, it is necessary to provide observation equipment at each location where solar power generation equipment is installed. Moreover, although it is possible to predict extremely short periods of time, from several seconds to several minutes, it is difficult to predict several tens of minutes ahead.

There is also a method of predicting the amount of power generated several tens of minutes in the future by using a persistence model that assumes that the current amount of power generation will remain unchanged for a while. However, the predicted value obtained by this method is simply a delayed version of the amount of power generated in the past, and therefore cannot take sudden changes in the amount of power generated into account, and there is a limit to the accuracy of prediction.

For this reason, it is possible to more accurately predict the amount of power generated by solar power generation equipment over a short period of time, such as a few minutes to several hours, without installing observation equipment at each installation location of solar power generation equipment. Technology for this purpose is desired.

The present invention was made in view of the above-mentioned problems, and it is possible to monitor solar power generation equipment at a predetermined time ahead, for example, in a short period of time from several minutes to several hours, without installing observation equipment at each installation location of solar power generation equipment. It is an object of the present invention to provide a solar power generation amount prediction device, a control method and a program for the solar power generation amount prediction device, which can predict the amount of power generation more accurately.

A solar power generation amount prediction device that solves the above problem is a solar power generation amount prediction device that calculates a first predicted value that predicts the amount of power generated by a solar power generation facility from the present time to a first point in time a first time ahead. , a provisional value calculation unit that calculates a provisional value of the first predicted value using a first calculation formula, and a second time unit obtained by equally dividing the first time from the current time from the first time. A second method that calculates one or more second predicted values of the amount of power generated by the solar power generation equipment for each second hour using a second calculation formula until a third point in time that is a short third time ahead. A predicted value calculation unit calculates the amount of power generated by the solar power generation equipment at the first time from the fourth point in time, which is the first time before the current time, based on the provisional value. a first graph creation unit that creates a first graph representing a trend of change in power generation amount on a two-dimensional coordinate plane; and a second hourly power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment from the fourth time point to the present time. and the one or more second predicted values from the current time to the third time point, and create a second graph representing a trend of change in the amount of power generation of the solar power generation equipment on the two-dimensional coordinate plane. predicted the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment between the fifth time point, which is the second time before the third time point, and the third time point, using a second graph creation unit that performs the calculation, and the first graph. a third predicted value calculation unit that calculates a third predicted value; and a fourth prediction that predicts the amount of power generated by the solar power generation equipment between the fifth time point and the third time point using the second graph. a fourth predicted value calculation unit that calculates a value; a difference calculation unit that calculates a difference between the third predicted value and the fourth predicted value; and a difference calculation unit that calculates the difference between the third predicted value and the fourth predicted value, and the first A first predicted value calculation unit that calculates a predicted value.

Other problems disclosed by the present application and methods for solving the problems will be made clear by the description in the Detailed Description section and the drawings.

This makes it possible to more accurately predict the amount of power generated by solar power generation equipment in the short term without having to install observation equipment at each location where solar power generation equipment is installed.

FIG. 1 is a diagram showing the overall configuration of a solar power generation amount prediction system. FIG. 2 is a hardware configuration diagram of a solar power generation amount prediction device. It is a diagram showing a storage device of the solar power generation amount prediction device. It is a figure showing a power generation amount management table. FIG. 2 is a diagram for explaining a method for predicting the amount of solar power generation. FIG. 2 is a diagram for explaining a method for predicting the amount of solar power generation. FIG. 2 is a diagram for explaining a method for predicting the amount of solar power generation. It is a functional block diagram of a solar power generation amount prediction device. It is a flowchart which shows the control method of a solar power generation amount prediction apparatus.

From the description of this specification and the attached drawings, at least the following matters will become clear. DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS The present invention will be described below based on one embodiment thereof with reference to the accompanying drawings.

==Overall composition==
FIG. 1 shows the overall configuration of a solar power generation amount prediction system 1000 according to an embodiment of the present invention.

The solar power generation amount prediction system 1000 is configured such that a solar power generation amount prediction device 100 and a solar power generation facility 900 are communicably connected via a network 500 such as the Internet, a LAN (Local Area Network), or a telephone network. be done. Further, the solar power generation amount prediction system 1000 according to the present embodiment is also communicably connected to a storage battery 600 via a network 500. In addition, the solar power generation amount prediction system 1000 is communicably connected to a weather data providing device (not shown).

The solar power generation equipment 900 and the storage battery 600 are connected to the power system 400. The power system 400 is, for example, a power distribution system, and various power equipment (not shown) such as a substation and power consumption equipment of power consumers are interconnected. The solar power generation facility 900 supplies power generated using solar energy to the power system 400. The storage battery 600 charges or discharges power with the power grid 400 according to a charge/discharge command value described below.

The solar power generation amount prediction device 100 acquires the actual value of the amount of power generation from the solar power generation equipment 900 at regular intervals (for example, every minute), and uses this actual value to predict the amount of electric power generated every first hour (for example, every 30 minutes). The average value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 is calculated every minute) and every second time (for example, every 10 minutes) obtained by equally dividing the first time.

In this embodiment, the case where the average value of the power generation amount is used is explained as an example, but the power generation amount is not limited to the average value, and for example, the total value may be used. In other words, an embodiment in which the term "average value" in this embodiment is replaced with "total value" is also an embodiment of the present invention.

In addition, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 calculates the average value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 from the present time to the first point in time (30 minutes ahead) every first hour (every 30 minutes). A provisional value of the predicted first predicted value is calculated using a first calculation formula 311 described later.

On the other hand, in addition to the provisional value, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 calculates a third time (10 minutes or 20 minutes) from the current time, which is shorter than the first time, in units of a second time (10 minutes). Until the third time point, one or more second predicted values are calculated by predicting the average value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 every second hour (every 10 minutes) using the second calculation formula 312. are doing.

Then, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 creates a first graph (described later) representing the trend of change in the average value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 for each first hour, and using this first graph, From the 5th time point (current time or 10 minutes later) to the 3rd time point (10 minutes later or 20 minutes later) which is 2nd hour (10 minutes earlier) than the 3rd time point (10 minutes later or 20 minutes later) mentioned above A third predicted value is calculated by predicting the average value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 during the period.

Similarly, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 creates a second graph (described later) that represents the trend of change in the average value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 every second hour, and uses this second graph. Then, a fourth predicted value is calculated, which is the average value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 from the fifth time point (current time or 10 minutes later) to the third time point (10 minutes later or 20 minutes later). do.

Then, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 calculates the difference "x" between the third predicted value and the fourth predicted value, and subtracts this difference "x" from the provisional value, so that the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 A first predicted value is calculated by predicting the average value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 up to a first point in time (30 minutes ahead).

In this way, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 according to the present embodiment uses a plurality of predicted values with different prediction cycles to obtain a predicted value with higher accuracy. With this aspect, it is possible to more accurately measure the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 for a predetermined time ahead, for example, for a short period of time from several minutes to several hours, without providing observation equipment for each installation location of the solar power generation equipment 900. It becomes possible to predict.

Then, using this first predicted value, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 determines whether the storage battery 600 will be charged or discharged with the electric power system 400 from the current moment to the first time (30 minutes). Calculate the charge/discharge command value that determines the amount of power to be used. The storage battery 600 then charges or discharges power with the power grid 400 according to this charging/discharging command value. With this aspect, it becomes possible to control the storage battery 600 using a charge/discharge command value that reflects the amount of power generated by the solar power generation equipment 900 determined with higher precision.

How the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 according to the present embodiment calculates the above provisional value, second predicted value, third predicted value, and fourth predicted value, and how the first graph and second graph are created , how the first predicted value is calculated by correcting the provisional value using the difference "x" will be explained with reference to FIGS. 5A to 5C.

FIG. 5A shows the case on a clear day, and FIGS. 5B and 5C show the case on a cloudy day. In addition, FIG. 5B is an example where the present time is set as the fifth time point and 10 minutes from the present time is set as the third time point, and FIG. 5C is an example where the present time is set as the fifth time point and 10 minutes after the present time is set as the third time point. This is an example in which the third point in time is set as the third point in time.

In the case of a day with almost no clouds as shown in FIG. 5A, the amount of solar radiation changes relatively stably as the solar altitude changes, and the amount of power generated by the solar power generation equipment 900 changes stably. Therefore, even if the provisional value is obtained by predicting the average value of the power generation amount for the first time (30 minutes) using the first calculation formula 311, the accuracy is relatively high.

On the other hand, on days when sunlight shines in or is blocked through breaks in clouds over a short period of time, as shown in Figures 5B and 5C, the amount of solar radiation fluctuates greatly over a short period of time, making it difficult to generate solar power. The amount of power generated by the equipment 900 becomes unstable. Therefore, the first calculation formula 311 that predicts the average value of the power generation amount every first time (30 minutes) cannot follow the speed of change in the amount of solar radiation, and the accuracy of the provisional value is unstable. Therefore, in this embodiment, the accuracy is improved by correcting the above-mentioned provisional value using a second predicted value that is obtained by predicting the average value of the power generation amount every second period (10 minutes), which is a shorter period.

In FIGS. 5A to 5C, "B1", "B2", "B3", "B4", and "B5" represent the average value of the actual power generation amount for each second time (10 minutes). Note that "B4" and "B5" are the amount of power generation in the future from the present time, so they are originally unknown at the present time, but are displayed for the convenience of explanation.

Moreover, "A1" and "A2" represent the average value of the actual value of the power generation amount for each first time (30 minutes). "A2" is the amount of power generation in the future from the present time, so it is originally unknown, but it is displayed for convenience of explanation.

“b4” is a second predicted value that is obtained by predicting the average value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 from the present time to a second time (10 minutes ahead) using the second calculation formula 312. In addition, "b5" calculates the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 from the second time ahead (10 minutes from the current time) to the second time ahead (20 minutes from the current time) using the second calculation formula 312. This is a second predicted value obtained by predicting the average value.

Various calculation formulas have been proposed for predicting the amount of solar power generation, but in this embodiment, the second calculation formula 312 uses the most recent predetermined number (for example, two) of power generation amounts. Then, second predicted values "b4" and "b5" are calculated. For example, "b4" is calculated using the two most recent power generation amounts, "B2" and "B3." Moreover, "b5" is calculated by using "B3" and "b4" which are the two most recent power generation amounts.

On the other hand, "a2" is a provisional value predicted by using the first calculation formula 311 to predict the average value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 from the present time to the first time (30 minutes ahead). Various calculation formulas have been proposed for predicting the amount of solar power generation, but in this embodiment, the first calculation formula 311 is the amount of power generated by the most recent predetermined number (for example, two). A provisional value "a2" is calculated by using "A0" (not shown) and "A1". "A0" is the average value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 from 1 hour ago to 30 minutes ago (4th time point), and "A1" is the average value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 from 30 minutes ago (4th time point) to the present time. This is the average value of the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation equipment 900.

Here, in the case of FIG. 5A, the error between the provisional value "a2" and the actual value "A2" is relatively small, but in the cases of FIGS. 5B and 5C, the error between the provisional value "a2" and the actual value "A2" becomes relatively large. One of the reasons for this is that, as mentioned above, in the first hourly (every 30 minutes) prediction using the first calculation formula 311, sunlight is suddenly blocked by clouds and the amount of solar radiation decreases. This is because it cannot respond to fluctuations.

Therefore, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 according to the present embodiment has a first graph representing a trend of a change in the average value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 every first hour, and a second graph representing a tendency of a change every second hour. A second graph representing the trend is created, and using these graphs, the average value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 from the present time to the first point in time (30 minutes ahead) (first Predicted value).

The first graph is a straight line indicated by "H" in FIG. 5B, and represents the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 during the first hour ( This is a straight line connecting two points on a two-dimensional coordinate plane, which is determined by assuming that the average value "A1" for 30 minutes) and the provisional value "a2" are values at the center of each time interval. In FIG. 5B, "A1" and "a2" are written at these two points.

In this embodiment, it is assumed that "A1", which is the average value of the power generation amount for the past 30 minutes, is the value "15 (30/2) minutes ago", and "a2" is the average value for the next 30 minutes. is assumed to be the value at "15 (30/2) minutes later".

The second graph is a straight line indicated by “J” in FIG. 5B, and is the average value (“B1 , "B2," "B3") and the second predicted value ("b4") from the current time point to the third time point (10 minutes later) are determined by assuming that they are the values at the center point of each time interval. A straight line (for example, a straight line with the minimum total distance) that is determined based on the sum of distances from a plurality of points (four points) on a two-dimensional coordinate plane.

In addition, the second graph is a straight line indicated by "I" in the example shown in FIG. values ("B1", "B2", "B3") and the second predicted values ("b4" and "b5") from the current time point to the third time point (20 minutes later) at the central point in each time interval. This is a straight line (for example, a straight line with the minimum total distance) that is determined based on the sum of the distances from a plurality of points (five points) on the two-dimensional coordinate plane, which is determined by assuming that the value is the same.

Then, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 first uses the first graph (H) to estimate the amount of solar power generated during the period from the fifth point in time (currently or 10 minutes later) to the third point in time (10 minutes later or 20 minutes later). A third predicted value is calculated by predicting the average value of the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation equipment 900.

In the case of FIG. 5B, the fifth time point is the current time, the third time point is 10 minutes later, and the third predicted value is the value indicated by the point "P" on the first graph. Point "P" is the value of the first graph (straight line H) at the central time point (5 minutes later) of the time interval from the fifth time point to the third time point (from the current time point to 10 minutes later).

In the case of FIG. 5C, the fifth time point is 10 minutes later, the third time point is 20 minutes later, and the third predicted value is similarly the value indicated by point "P" on the first graph. Point "P" is the value of the first graph (straight line H) at the central time point (15 minutes later) of the time interval from the fifth time point to the third time point.

Further, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 uses the second graph (J, I) to predict the average value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 from the fifth time point to the third time point. Calculate the predicted value.

In the case of FIG. 5B, the fifth time point is the current time, the third time point is 10 minutes later, and the fourth predicted value is the value indicated by point "Q" on the second graph (J). Point "Q" is the value of the second graph (straight line J) at the central time point (5 minutes later) of the time interval from the fifth time point to the third time point (from the current time point to 10 minutes later).

In the case of FIG. 5C, the fifth time point is 10 minutes later, the third time point is 20 minutes later, and the fourth predicted value is the value similarly indicated by point "Q" on the second graph (I). becomes. Point "Q" is the value of the second graph (straight line I) at the central time point (15 minutes later) of the time interval from the fifth time point to the third time point.

Then, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 calculates the difference "x" between the third predicted value (P) and the fourth predicted value (Q).

Then, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 calculates the first predicted value by subtracting the difference "x" from the provisional value "a2".

In FIG. 5B, the first predicted value is marked as "a2'". In the example shown in FIG. 5C, point "Q" matches the first predicted value.

With this aspect, it is possible to predict the amount of power generation while following the trend of changes in the amount of power generation over a long period while taking into account events that occur in a short time such as sudden changes in the amount of solar radiation. Therefore, it becomes possible to more accurately predict the amount of power generated by the solar power generation equipment 900 in a short period of time.

==Solar power generation amount prediction device==
The solar power generation amount prediction device 100 is a device that calculates a first predicted value that predicts the average value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 from the current time to a first time ahead.

A hardware configuration diagram of the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 is shown in FIG. 2. The solar power generation amount prediction device 100 is, for example, a computer having a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 110, a memory 120, a storage device 130, a recording medium reading device 140, a communication device 150, an input device 160, and an output device 170, or various information processing devices. Consists of electronic devices such as devices.

The storage device 130 stores a solar power generation amount prediction device control program 700 executed or processed by the solar power generation amount prediction device 100, a power generation amount management table 300, which will be described later, and calculation formulas 310 (for example, a first calculation formula 311, a second calculation formula 311, and a second calculation formula 310). Data such as a calculation formula 312 and a third calculation formula 313) are stored. FIG. 3 shows how a solar power generation amount prediction device control program 700, a power generation amount management table 300, and a calculation formula 310 are stored in the storage device 130.

The solar power generation amount prediction device control program 700 stored in the storage device 130, the data stored in the power generation amount management table 300, and the calculation formula 310 are read out to the memory 120 and executed or processed by the CPU 110. Accordingly, various functions of the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 are realized. Here, the storage device 130 is a nonvolatile storage device such as a hard disk drive, an SSD (Solid State Drive), or a flash memory.

Note that the solar power generation amount prediction device control program 700 is a general term for programs for realizing the functions of the solar power generation amount prediction device 100, and includes, for example, an application program that operates on the solar power generation amount prediction device 100, It includes an OS (Operating System), various libraries, etc.

FIG. 4 shows an example of the power generation amount management table 300. In the power generation amount management table 300 according to the present embodiment, actual values of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 are stored in chronological order, for example, every minute, in association with date and time information.

In this embodiment, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 receives the actual value of the power generation amount every minute from the solar power generation equipment 900, and similarly receives the actual value of the power generation amount from the communicably connected meteorological data providing device (not shown). Weather information is received every minute and stored in the power generation amount management table 300 in association with date and time information. In other words, new actual values of power generation amount and weather information are accumulated in the power generation amount management table 300 every minute.

In addition, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 uses the latest timing (first timing) that comes every 30 minutes (first time) and the timing (second timing) that comes every 10 minutes (second time). The average value of the actual power generation amount for the past 10 minutes and the most recent past 30 minutes is calculated and recorded in the power generation amount management table 300.

Note that the actual value of power generation amount and weather information may not be stored in the power generation amount management table 300 at night when solar power generation is not performed. In this case, the time period during which the actual value of power generation amount is not accumulated can be set as appropriate, for example from 6:00 PM to 6:00 AM the next day, but changes in sunrise and sunset times and solar altitude depending on the season. It may be changed depending on.

Note that the weather information includes sunny, cloudy, rain, and snow, but may also include clear skies, sleet, fog, and the like. Furthermore, the weather information may additionally include weather information such as temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind speed, clear weather index, and amount of solar radiation.

Returning to FIG. 2, the recording medium reading device 140 reads programs and data recorded on a recording medium 800 such as a CD-ROM or DVD, and stores them in the storage device 130.

The communication device 150 exchanges data and programs with other computers (not shown) via a communication network such as the Internet or a LAN (Local Area Network). For example, if the solar power generation amount prediction device control program 700 described above is stored in another computer, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 may download the solar power generation amount prediction device control program 700 from this computer. can do. Alternatively, the communication device 150 may periodically receive actual values of power generation amount and weather information from the solar power generation equipment 900 and a computer that distributes weather information.

The input device 160 is an input interface such as various buttons, switches, a keyboard, and a microphone that accept commands and data input by the user.

Further, the output device 170 is, for example, a display device such as a display, or an output user interface such as a speaker.

<Functional configuration>
FIG. 6 shows a functional block diagram of the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 according to this embodiment. The solar power generation amount prediction device 100 includes a first predicted value calculation section 101, a second predicted value calculation section 102, a third predicted value calculation section 103, a fourth predicted value calculation section 104, a first graph creation section 105, and a second predicted value calculation section 104. It includes the functions of a graph creation section 106, a difference calculation section 107, a provisional value calculation section 108, and a charge/discharge command value calculation section 109. These functions are realized by the hardware shown in FIG. 2 executing or processing the solar power generation amount prediction device control program 700 and various data according to this embodiment.

The provisional value calculation unit 108 uses the first calculation formula 311 to calculate a provisional value of a first predicted value that predicts the amount of power generated by the solar power generation equipment 900 from the current moment to a first time (for example, 30 minutes ahead). .

For example, if the current time is 6:30 a.m., the provisional value calculation unit 108 calculates the provisional value of the first predicted value, which is the average value of the power generation amount for 30 minutes from 6:30 a.m. to 7 a.m. . Note that this provisional value is corrected to a first predicted value by a first predicted value calculation unit 101, which will be described later. In the examples shown in FIGS. 5A to 5C, "a2" corresponds to the provisional value.

In this embodiment, the first calculation formula 311 uses the average value (“A0” and “A1” described above) of a predetermined number (for example, two) of power generation amounts in the most recent past calculated every first hour. Thus, the provisional value "a2" is calculated, but the provisional value may also be calculated using other data such as solar radiation, temperature, and date and time information.

The second predicted value calculation unit 102 calculates, from the present time, a third time period (for example, 10 minutes) shorter than the first time, where the unit is a second time period (for example, 10 minutes) obtained by equally dividing the first time period (for example, 30 minutes). The second calculation formula 312 calculates one or more second predicted values that predict the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 every second hour (every 10 minutes) up to a third point in time (minutes ahead or 20 minutes ahead). Calculate using.

Note that the first time, second time, and third time can be, for example, times specified by the user. Here, it is assumed that the first time is 30 minutes, the second time is 10 minutes, and the third time is 10 or 20 minutes (examples shown in FIGS. 5B and 5C).

For example, if the current time is 6:30 a.m., the second predicted value calculation unit 102 calculates a second predicted value that predicts the average value of the power generation amount for 10 minutes from 6:30 a.m. to 6:40 a.m. do. In the example shown in FIG. 5B, "b4" corresponds to the second predicted value. Note that when the third time is 20 minutes, two of "b4" and "b5" correspond to the second predicted value, as in the example shown in FIG. 5C.

In the present embodiment, the second calculation formula 312 calculates the second predicted value by using the average value of a predetermined number (for example, two) of power generation amounts in the most recent past calculated every second time. , a provisional value may also be calculated using other data such as solar radiation, temperature, and date and time information.

The first graph creation unit 105 calculates the power generation amount “A1” in the first hour of the solar power generation equipment 900 from the fourth point in time, which is the first hour (30 minutes before) to the present time, and the provisional value “a2”. , a first graph (H) representing the tendency of change in the amount of power generation of the solar power generation equipment 900 is created on a two-dimensional coordinate plane.

In the present embodiment, the first graph creation unit 105 calculates the average value and provisional value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 from the fourth time point to the present time at the central point of each time interval ( A straight line connecting two points on the two-dimensional coordinate plane determined by assuming the values 15 minutes before and 15 minutes later is created as a first graph.

Note that the above-mentioned average value (“A1”) of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 from the fourth time point to the present time is calculated from the actual value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 in this embodiment. Value is used. In other words, it is not the average value of predicted values but the average value of actual values. Such an aspect makes it possible to obtain the third predicted value "P" described below with higher precision.

The second graph creation unit 106 calculates the power generation amount (“B1”, “B2”, “B3”) of the solar power generation equipment 900 every second hour (every 10 minutes) from the fourth time point to the present time, and Based on one or more second predicted values (“b4”, or “b4” and “b5”) up to the point in time (10 minutes or 20 minutes later), the change in the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 is calculated. A second graph (J or I) representing the trend is created on a two-dimensional coordinate plane.

In the present embodiment, the second graph creation unit 106 calculates the average value (“B1”, “B2”, “B3 ''), and one or more second predicted values (``b4'', or ``b4'' and ``b5'') from the current time to the third point in time, respectively, at the central point in each time interval (``25 minutes ago, 15 minutes ago''). Multiple values on a two-dimensional coordinate plane that are determined by assuming the values at ``minutes ago, 5 minutes ago, 5 minutes later,'' or ``25 minutes ago, 15 minutes ago, 5 minutes ago, 5 minutes later, and 15 minutes later.'' A straight line with the minimum total distance from the point is created as a second graph (J or I).

The second graph can be obtained, for example, as a regression line using the least squares method. Of course, the second graph is not limited to a straight line, and may include a curve expressed by a polynomial of second order or higher. Alternatively, it may be a polygonal line composed of a plurality of straight lines.

In addition, in this embodiment, the above-mentioned average values ("B1", "B2", "B3") of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 every second hour (every 10 minutes) from the fourth time point to the present time are , a value calculated from the actual value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 is used. In other words, it is not the average value of predicted values but the average value of actual values. Such an aspect makes it possible to obtain the fourth predicted value "Q" described below with higher precision.

The third predicted value calculation unit 103 uses the first graph (H) to calculate the data from the fifth time point (current time), which is the second time before the third time point (10 minutes later), to the third time point (10 minutes later). A third predicted value (“P”) that predicts the amount of power generated by the solar power generation equipment 900 during the period is calculated (in the case of FIG. 5B).

In the case of FIG. 5C, using the first graph (H), the period from the fifth time point (10 minutes later), which is the second time before the third time point (20 minutes later), to the third time point (20 minutes later). A third predicted value ("P") is calculated by predicting the average value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900.

The third predicted value "P" is the value of the first graph (H) at the central time point of the time interval from the fifth time point to the third time point.

With this aspect, from the trend of change (change from "A1" to "a2") when the change in the amount of power generation of the solar power generation equipment 900 is captured every first hour, it is possible to determine the change from the fifth time point to the third time point. It becomes possible to estimate the amount of power generated up to.

The fourth predicted value calculation unit 104 uses the second graph (J) to predict the amount of power generated by the solar power generation equipment 900 from the fifth time point (current time) to the third time point (10 minutes later). 4. Calculate the predicted value (“Q”) (in the case of FIG. 5B).

In the case of FIG. 5C, the fourth graph predicts the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 from the fifth time point (10 minutes later) to the third time point (20 minutes later) using the second graph (I). Calculate the predicted value (“P”).

The fourth predicted value "Q" is the value of the second graph (J, I) at the central time point of the time interval from the fifth time point to the third time point.

With this aspect, changes in the amount of power generated by the solar power generation equipment 900 captured every second time (changes from "B1" to "b4" or changes from "B1" to "b5") ), it is possible to estimate the amount of power generation from the fifth time point to the third time point.

Then, the difference calculation unit 107 calculates the difference "x" between the third predicted value "P" and the fourth predicted value "Q". With this aspect, the third predicted value derived from the first calculation formula 311 that predicts the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 in the first time period (long period) and the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 in the first time period (long period) are used. The difference from the fourth predicted value derived from the second calculation formula 312 predicted in a 2-hour period (short period) can be extracted as the difference "x".

The first predicted value calculation unit 101 calculates the first predicted value "a2'" by subtracting this difference "x" from the provisional value "a2" described above.

Such an aspect makes it possible to remove errors inherent in provisional values obtained by long-period prediction.

Further, if the angular difference “θ” between the slope of the first graph and the slope of the second graph is larger than a predetermined threshold “w”, the first predicted value calculation unit 101 calculates the difference “x”. A first predicted value "a2'" is calculated by subtracting it from the provisional value "a2", and if the angular difference "θ" is less than or equal to the threshold value "w", the provisional value "a2" is calculated as the first predicted value. It is better to do this.

Alternatively, if the difference "x" between the third predicted value "P" and the fourth predicted value "Q" is larger than the predetermined threshold "w'", the first predicted value calculation unit 101 calculates the difference " The first predicted value "a2'" is calculated by subtracting "x" from the provisional value "a2", and if the difference "x" is less than or equal to the threshold value "w'", the provisional value "a2" is subtracted from the first predicted value It may be calculated as follows.

With this aspect, the difference between the tendency of fluctuations in power generation when captured in the first hourly long period, such as during cloudy days, and the fluctuation trend observed in the second hourly short period, can be determined. is relatively large, the accuracy of the first predicted value is improved by correcting the provisional value ``a2'' with the difference ``x''. If the difference "x" is small and correction based on the difference "x" is unnecessary, it is possible to prevent the error from expanding due to correction of the provisional value.

The charge/discharge command value calculation unit 109 calculates a charge/discharge command value that determines the amount of power that the storage battery 600 connected to the power grid 400 should charge or discharge between the current time and the first hour (30 minutes ahead). It is calculated using the third calculation formula 313.

Various calculation formulas have been proposed for calculating the charge/discharge amount of the storage battery 600, but in this embodiment, the third calculation formula 313 is based on the current charging rate of the storage battery 600 and the power system 400. A charge/discharge command value is calculated using a predicted power demand value from the current moment to a first time (30 minutes ahead). With this aspect, it is possible to store electric power in the storage battery 600 in advance so that there is no shortage of electric power to be supplied to a power consumption device (not shown) connected to the electric power system 400.

The third calculation formula 313 according to the present embodiment further uses the difference "x" between the third predicted value and the fourth predicted value described above to correct and output the value of the charge/discharge command value. There is.

For example, if the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 increases more than the prior prediction and a positive difference "x" occurs while the storage battery 600 is being charged, the charge/discharge command value calculation unit 109 calculates the charge/discharge command value. Increase by the difference "x". Thereby, by increasing the amount of charge to the storage battery 600, the supply and demand balance of the power system 400 can be stabilized.

Similarly, if the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 decreases from the prior prediction while the storage battery 600 is being charged and a negative difference "x" occurs, the charge/discharge command value calculation unit 109 calculates the charge/discharge command value. is decreased by the difference "x". Thereby, the supply and demand balance of the power system 400 can be stabilized by reducing the amount of charge to the storage battery 600.

In addition, when the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 increases more than the prior prediction and a positive difference "x" occurs while the storage battery 600 is discharging, the charge/discharge command value calculation unit 109 calculates the charge/discharge command value. Decrease by the difference "x". Thereby, by reducing the discharge amount of the storage battery 600, it is possible to effectively use the electric power generated by the solar power generation equipment 900 for consumption, and the supply and demand balance of the power system 400 can be stabilized.

In addition, when the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 decreases compared to the prior prediction while the storage battery 600 is discharging and a negative difference "x" occurs, the charge/discharge command value calculation unit 109 calculates the charge/discharge command value. Increase by the difference "x". Thereby, by increasing the discharge amount of the storage battery 600, the supply and demand balance of the power system 400 can be stabilized. Alternatively, by decreasing the charge/discharge command value by the difference "x" and reducing the amount of discharge of the storage battery 600, it is possible to prevent the storage battery 600 from becoming insufficiently charged. In this case, the supply and demand balance of the power system 400 can be balanced by increasing the amount of power generated by a controllable power plant (not shown) (such as a thermal power plant or a hydroelectric power plant) that can control the amount of power supplied to the power system 400. keep.

Note that the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 receives information indicating the state of the storage battery 600, such as the charging rate of the storage battery 600 and whether the storage battery 600 is being charged or discharged, from the storage battery 600 of the solar power generation equipment. Actual values of power generation amount are acquired from the solar power generation equipment 900 at any time.

With this aspect, it is possible to more accurately predict the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 in a short period of time without providing observation equipment for each installation location of the solar power generation equipment 900.

==Processing flow==
Next, a method of controlling the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. 7. FIG. 7 is a flowchart showing the procedure, and these steps are realized by the CPU 110 executing the solar power generation amount prediction device control program 700 stored in the storage device 130 of the solar power generation amount prediction device 100. Ru.

First, when the second timing (10-minute average value calculation timing) arrives every second time (for example, 10 minutes), the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 refers to the power generation amount management table 300 and The average value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 from a second time before the second timing to the second timing is calculated (S1010). In the example shown in FIG. 5B, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 calculates the average value of the amount of power generation indicated by "B3".

Next, when the first timing (30-minute average value calculation timing) arrives every first time (for example, 30 minutes), the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 refers to the power generation amount management table 300, The average value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 from a first hour before the first timing to the first timing is calculated. In the example shown in FIG. 5B, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 calculates the average value of the amount of power generation indicated by "A1" (S1030).

Then, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 calculates a provisional value of the first predicted value using the first calculation formula 311 (S1040). In the example shown in FIG. 5B, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 uses the first calculation formula 311 to calculate a provisional value indicated by “a2”.

Furthermore, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 uses the second calculation formula 312 to calculate one or more second predicted values from the current time to the third time point (S1050). In the example shown in FIG. 5B, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 calculates the second predicted value indicated by “b4” using the first calculation formula 311.

Then, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 calculates the average value "A1" and the provisional value "a2" of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 at the first hour from the fourth point in time, which is the first hour before the current time, to the present time. , a first graph representing the trend of change in the average value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 is created on a two-dimensional coordinate plane (S1060). In addition, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 calculates the second hourly average values "B1", "B2", and "B3" of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 from the fourth time point to the present time, and from the present time point to the third time point. Based on one or more second predicted values ("b4" in the example shown in FIG. 5B), a second graph representing the trend of change in the average power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 is plotted in two dimensions. It is created on a coordinate plane (S1060).

Thereafter, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 uses the first graph to calculate the average value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 from the fifth time point, which is the second time before the third time point, to the third time point. The predicted third predicted value "P" is calculated (S1070).

Furthermore, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 uses the second graph to calculate a fourth predicted value "Q" that predicts the average value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 from the fifth time point to the third time point. Calculate (S1080).

Then, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 calculates the difference “x” between the third predicted value (“P”) and the fourth predicted value (“Q”) (S1090), and calculates this difference “x”. , the first predicted value "a2'" is calculated by subtracting it from the provisional value ("a2") (S1100). The difference "x" corresponds to "x" shown in FIG. 5B, and the first predicted value corresponds to "a2'".

With this aspect, it is possible to more accurately predict the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 in a short period of time without providing observation equipment for each installation location of the solar power generation equipment 900.

Thereafter, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 uses the difference “x” and the third calculation formula 313 to determine whether the storage battery 600 is charged or discharged between the current time and the first time (30 minutes). A charging/discharging command value that defines the amount of power to be used is calculated (S1110).

Such an aspect makes it possible to control the amount of charging and discharging of the storage battery 600 with higher precision.

The solar power generation amount prediction device 100 and the control method and program for the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 according to the present embodiment have been described above. According to the control method and program for the device 100, it is possible to more accurately predict the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 in a short time without providing observation equipment for each installation location of the solar power generation equipment 900. Become.

Note that the embodiments described above are for facilitating understanding of the present invention, and are not intended to be interpreted as limiting the present invention. The present invention may be modified and improved without departing from its spirit, and the present invention also includes equivalents thereof.

For example, in the above embodiment, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 calculates the average value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 900 from the actual value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 900 every first hour and every second hour. ("A1", "B1", etc.), but it may be calculated from predicted values.

Further, although a case has been described in which the power system 400 is a power distribution system, it may be a power transmission system, a microgrid connected to the power system, a microgrid independent from the power system, or the like.

100 Solar power generation amount prediction device 101 First predicted value calculation unit 102 Second predicted value calculation unit 103 Third predicted value calculation unit 104 Fourth predicted value calculation unit 105 First graph creation unit 106 Second graph creation unit 107 Difference calculation Section 108 Provisional value calculation section 109 Charge/discharge command value calculation section 110 CPU
120 Memory 130 Storage device 140 Recording medium reading device 150 Communication device 160 Input device 170 Output device 300 Power generation management table 310 Calculation formula 311 First calculation formula 312 Second calculation formula 313 Third calculation formula 400 Power system 500 Network 600 Storage battery 700 Solar power generation amount prediction device control program 800 Recording medium 900 Solar power generation equipment 1000 Solar power generation amount prediction system

Claims (8)

A solar power generation amount prediction device that calculates a first predicted value predicting the power generation amount of a solar power generation facility from a current time to a first point in time a first time ahead,
a provisional value calculation unit that calculates a provisional value of the first predicted value using a first calculation formula;
From the current time to a third point in time, which is a third time shorter than the first time, where the unit is a second time formed by dividing the first time into equal parts, the solar power generation equipment operates every second hour. a second predicted value calculation unit that calculates one or more second predicted values predicting the amount of power generation using a second calculation formula;
Changes in the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment based on the power generation amount in the first hour of the solar power generation equipment from the fourth point in time, which is the first hour before the current time, and the provisional value. a first graph creation unit that creates a first graph representing a trend on a two-dimensional coordinate plane;
Based on the second hourly power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment from the fourth time point to the present time, and the one or more second predicted values from the present time point to the third time point, a second graph creation unit that creates a second graph representing a trend of changes in the amount of power generated by the power generation equipment on the two-dimensional coordinate plane;
Using the first graph, calculating a third predicted value that predicts the amount of power generated by the solar power generation equipment from a fifth time point that is a second time before the third time point to the third time point. 3 predicted value calculation unit;
a fourth predicted value calculation unit that uses the second graph to calculate a fourth predicted value that predicts the amount of power generated by the solar power generation equipment between the fifth point in time and the third point in time;
a difference calculation unit that calculates a difference between the third predicted value and the fourth predicted value;
a first predicted value calculation unit that calculates the first predicted value by subtracting the difference from the provisional value;
A solar power generation amount prediction device. The solar power generation amount prediction device according to claim 1,
The first graph creation section includes:
On the two-dimensional coordinate plane determined by assuming that the amount of power generated by the solar power generation equipment in the first time from the fourth time point to the present time and the provisional value are respectively values at the center point of each time interval. A solar power generation amount prediction device that creates a straight line connecting two points of as the first graph. The solar power generation amount prediction device according to claim 1 or 2,
The second graph creation section includes:
Each of the second hourly power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment from the fourth time point to the present time and the one or more second predicted values from the present time point to the third time point is determined at the center of each time interval. A solar power generation amount prediction device that creates, as the second graph, a straight line that minimizes the sum of distances from a plurality of points on the two-dimensional coordinate plane, which is determined by assuming a value at a time point of . The solar power generation amount prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 3,
The power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment in the first hour from the fourth time point to the present time and the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment for each second hour from the fourth time point to the present time are calculated based on the solar power generation amount. A solar power generation amount prediction device that is a value calculated from the actual power generation amount of power generation equipment. The solar power generation amount prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 4,
The first predicted value calculation unit includes:
If the angular difference between the slope of the first graph and the slope of the second graph is larger than a predetermined threshold, calculate the first predicted value by subtracting the difference from the provisional value, A solar power generation amount prediction device that calculates the provisional value as the first predicted value when the angular difference is less than or equal to the threshold value. The solar power generation amount prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 5,
A storage battery connected to an electric power system to which electric power generated by the solar power generation equipment is supplied receives a charging/discharging command value that determines the amount of electric power to be charged or discharged between the current time and the first time ahead, a charge/discharge command value calculation unit that calculates using the difference;
A solar power generation amount prediction device further comprising: A control method for a solar power generation amount prediction device that calculates a first predicted value predicting the power generation amount of a solar power generation facility from a current time to a first point in time a first time ahead, the method comprising:
The solar power generation amount prediction device includes:
Calculating a provisional value of the first predicted value using a first calculation formula,
From the current time to a third point in time, which is a third time shorter than the first time, where the unit is a second time formed by dividing the first time into equal parts, the solar power generation equipment operates every second hour. Calculating one or more second predicted values of power generation amount using a second calculation formula,
Changes in the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment based on the power generation amount in the first hour of the solar power generation equipment from the fourth point in time, which is the first hour before the current time, and the provisional value. Create a first graph representing the trend on a two-dimensional coordinate plane,
Based on the second hourly power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment from the fourth time point to the present time, and the one or more second predicted values from the present time point to the third time point, creating a second graph on the two-dimensional coordinate plane representing a trend of changes in the amount of power generated by the power generation equipment;
Using the first graph, calculate a third predicted value that predicts the amount of power generated by the solar power generation equipment from a fifth time point that is a second time before the third time point to the third time point;
Using the second graph, calculate a fourth predicted value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment between the fifth time point and the third time point,
Calculating the difference between the third predicted value and the fourth predicted value,
calculating the first predicted value by subtracting the difference from the provisional value;
Control method for solar power generation amount prediction device. A program for obtaining a first predicted value that predicts the amount of power generated by a solar power generation facility from the present time to a first point in time a first time ahead,
to the computer,
a step of calculating a provisional value of the first predicted value using a first calculation formula;
From the current time to a third point in time, which is a third time shorter than the first time, where the unit is a second time formed by dividing the first time into equal parts, the solar power generation equipment operates every second hour a step of calculating one or more second predicted values of power generation amount using a second calculation formula;
Changes in the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment based on the power generation amount in the first hour of the solar power generation equipment from the fourth point in time, which is the first hour before the current time, and the provisional value. A procedure for creating a first graph representing a trend on a two-dimensional coordinate plane;
Based on the second hourly power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment from the fourth time point to the present time and the one or more second predicted values from the present time point to the third time point, a step of creating a second graph on the two-dimensional coordinate plane representing a trend of changes in the amount of power generated by the power generation equipment;
A step of calculating a third predicted value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment from a fifth time point, which is a second time before the third time point, to the third time point, using the first graph. and,
using the second graph to calculate a fourth predicted value that predicts the amount of power generated by the solar power generation equipment between the fifth point in time and the third point in time;
a step of calculating a difference between the third predicted value and the fourth predicted value;
calculating the first predicted value by subtracting the difference from the provisional value;
A program to run.

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