JP2022130912A - Disaster mitigation system for short-time strong rain - Google Patents

Abstract

To provide a disaster mitigation system for short-time strong rain that supports operation of railways and evacuation of passengers in real time.SOLUTION: A disaster mitigation system 10 for short-time strong rain that evaluates and displays in real time a range and scale of inundation/flooding along railway lines due to localized short-time strong rain or heavy rain and a hazard of reach of sediment flowing down rivers accompanied with a large scale collapse includes: a predicted rainfall value acquisition program for confirming at predetermined time intervals whether there is meteorological data including predicted rainfall values and observed rainfall values and acquiring the predicted rainfall values and the observed rainfall values; a predicted rainfall value preprocessing program for converting the meteorological data into a predetermined format and mesh size; an inundation/flooding analysis system for performing inundation/flooding analysis in a predetermined area using the meteorological data as input values; and an inundation/flooding analysis output data conversion program for comparing a predicted inundation depth value calculated by inundation/flooding analysis means with a predetermined threshold value to determine whether or not a hazard may occur, and transmits a determination result to a train stop position display system.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

The present invention displays, as a real-time evaluation result, the hazards of flooding and flooding areas along railway lines due to localized short-term heavy rain and heavy rain, and the reach of sediment flowing down rivers due to large-scale landslides. Regarding the disaster mitigation system for

BACKGROUND ART Conventionally, there is known a flood forecasting system that forecasts rainfall in a short period of time using rainfall data measured by radar or the like, and predicts floods and levee breaches that occur in rivers and the like based on this rainfall forecast.

The inundation prediction program described in Patent Document 1 has a first step of obtaining a predicted water level of a river, and a second step of calculating a predicted bank break start time for each of a plurality of assumed bank break points provided in advance from the predicted water level. Then, the length of time from the start of levee breakage to the start of inundation, which has been calculated in advance for each assumed levee breakpoint, is added to the predicted start time of levee breakage, and the predicted start time of inundation for each assumed levee breakpoint is calculated for each region. In the third step, the predicted inundation time for each region that has already been stored for each assumed levee break point is compared with the predicted inundation start time, and the earlier time is stored as the predicted inundation time for each region. and a fourth step with a power value, and is characterized in that the second step to the fourth step are repeatedly executed according to the number of set bank breakage scenarios.

According to such an inundation prediction program, it is possible to provide a computer program that presents information on the earliest inundation time when a plurality of levee breakage scenarios are assumed.

JP 2019-144984 A

However, in recent years, there has been an increase in the frequency of torrential downpours, such as torrential downpours and localized downpours, caused by the rapid development of cumulonimbus clouds. There is a problem that it is difficult to take measures for all of them.

Localized short-term torrential downpours, such as so-called guerrilla downpours, develop rapidly within a few minutes over a local area of several kilometers. When evaluated, there is a possibility of not being in time for the occurrence of flooding. It is conceivable that there may be cases where it is difficult to predict.

Therefore, it is currently difficult to identify the location and time of occurrence of localized short-term heavy rain that accompanies rapid development of cumulonimbus clouds before the formation of cumulonimbus clouds. Therefore, it is effective to analyze the hazards on the track several tens of minutes to several hours ahead and take measures one by one. In addition, in the case of long rains, the rainfall varies spatially and temporally, and hazards change accordingly. Even in such cases, analyzing hazards that change continuously and taking appropriate countermeasures is considered to be one of the effective means for ensuring safety.

Therefore, the present invention has been made in view of the above problems, and predicts the rainfall several tens of minutes to several hours ahead by capturing the weather conditions immediately before the occurrence of heavy rain, and predicts the hazards that will occur along with the rainfall. Therefore, it is an object of the present invention to provide a disaster mitigation system for short-term heavy rain that can support railway operation and evacuation of passengers in real time.

In order to solve the above problems, a disaster mitigation system for short-term heavy rain according to the present invention is provided. A disaster mitigation system for short-term heavy rain that protects railway vehicles and railway users by evaluating and displaying the hazards of the reach range of flowing sediment in real time, including rainfall forecast values and observed rainfall values obtained from the outside Rainfall forecast value acquisition means for checking the presence or absence of weather data at predetermined time intervals and acquiring the rainfall forecast values and observed rainfall values, and rainfall preprocessing means for converting the weather data into a predetermined format and mesh size. a flooding/flooding analysis means for performing a flooding/flooding analysis of a predetermined area using the weather data converted by the rainfall preprocessing means as an input value; After that, the flood depth prediction value calculated by the flood/flood analysis means is compared with a predetermined threshold value to determine whether or not a hazard has occurred, and the determination result is sent to the train stop position display system. Inundation analysis output data conversion means is provided, and the inundation/flood analysis output data conversion means is characterized by evaluating the presence or absence of inundation/flooding of the railway in consideration of the construction ground height of the railway.

Moreover, in the disaster mitigation system against short-term heavy rain according to the present invention, it is preferable that the rainfall forecast value acquisition means confirms the presence or absence of the weather data at intervals of 10 seconds.

Also, in the disaster mitigation system against short-term heavy rain according to the present invention, it is preferable that the rainfall preprocessing means determines the grid points with a square mesh size of 25 m and latitude and longitude coordinates.

Also, in the disaster mitigation system for short-term heavy rain according to the present invention, it is preferable to have a simulation mode in which the above inundation/overflow analysis is performed using past weather data stored in an external storage medium.

The disaster mitigation system for short-term heavy rain according to the present invention evaluates the presence or absence of flooding and flooding of railways in consideration of the construction ground height of railways. Even if it is raised, it is possible to reflect the elevation of detailed structures such as railway embankments and trenches, and it is possible to achieve both an improvement in calculation speed and an improvement in judgment accuracy.

In addition, by using rainfall forecast values to predict constantly changing hazards in real time and utilizing them for train operation, civil engineering, electricity, maintenance and inspection timing of station facilities, local short-term Various soft countermeasures against temporal rainfall and the like are possible. Furthermore, realization of immediacy, versatility for distribution data, and a hazard display method that matches the purpose of the user enables the user to make safe and rational judgments regarding disaster mitigation.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS The figure which shows the outline|summary of the disaster mitigation system with respect to the short-time heavy rain which concerns on embodiment of this invention. 1 is a flow diagram of a disaster mitigation system against short-term heavy rain according to an embodiment of the present invention; FIG. The figure which shows an example of the screen display of the disaster mitigation system with respect to the short-time heavy rain which concerns on embodiment of this invention.

Preferred embodiments for carrying out the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings. In addition, the following embodiments do not limit the invention according to each claim, and not all combinations of features described in the embodiments are essential for the solution of the invention. .

FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an outline of a disaster mitigation system against short-term heavy rain according to an embodiment of the present invention, and FIG. 2 is a flow diagram of the disaster mitigation system against short-term heavy rain according to an embodiment of the present invention. 3 is a diagram showing an example of a screen display of the disaster mitigation system against short-term heavy rain according to the embodiment of the present invention.

The disaster mitigation system 10 for short-term heavy rain according to the present embodiment is a disaster mitigation system using rainfall prediction values for avoiding hazards to railways due to localized short-term heavy rain in real time. Configured. 1) A function to visually visualize observed and predicted rainfall values delivered from external organizations and rainfall index values calculated from them at any given time and to display them as a time-series graph for an arbitrary mesh. . 2) A function that analyzes the hazards of inundation and flooding approximately one to two hours ahead using rainfall forecast values and displays them sequentially. 3) A function that displays a hazard in the range where sediment can reach when the rainfall index is predicted to reach the threshold at a point extracted in advance where a large-scale slope failure is thought to occur. 4) A function to analyze and display the train stop position where damage can be avoided and the evacuation route for passengers from there to the evacuation site, in response to the display of the hazards in 2) and 3) above.

Specifically, as shown in FIG. 1, the disaster mitigation system 10 for short-term heavy rain according to the present embodiment checks the presence or absence of weather data including rainfall forecast values and observed rainfall values acquired from the external organization 1 for a predetermined time. While confirming at intervals of , a rainfall forecast value acquisition program 12 (rainfall forecast value acquisition means) that acquires the rainfall forecast value and the observed rainfall value, and the rainfall forecast value that converts the weather data into a predetermined format and mesh size Before the rainfall forecast value A flooding/flooding analysis system 14 (flooding/flooding analysis means) that performs flooding/flooding analysis of a predetermined area using the processing program 13 (precipitation preprocessing means) and weather data converted by the rainfall forecast value preprocessing program 13 as input values. Then, after the inundation/flood analysis system 14 obtains the analysis result that inundation/flooding will occur, the predicted flood depth calculated by the inundation/flood analysis system 14 is compared with a predetermined threshold value to determine whether or not a hazard has occurred. A flood/flood analysis output data conversion program 15 (flood/flood analysis output data conversion means) that determines and sends the determination result to the train stop position display system, and the rainfall value created by the rainfall forecast value preprocessing program 13 A rainfall index calculation program 16 that calculates a rainfall index using the A management program 11 having a sediment reaching area extraction program 17 based on the rainfall threshold excess judgment that performs ○× judgment, a flood / flood analysis output data conversion program 15, and a judgment by the sediment reaching area extraction program 17 based on the rainfall threshold excess judgment Receive results, analyze appropriate train stop positions to prevent trains from entering hazard points, analyze evacuation routes from those points to evacuation centers, etc., and send display data of analysis results to user terminals. Regarding the rainfall values created by the train stop position display system and the inundation/flood analysis output data conversion program, the rainfall for one minute, the accumulated rainfall from the start of rain, the rainfall for one hour, and the water level in the inundation/flood analysis can be obtained from the user terminal. The rainfall information display system that transmits display data to the user terminal based on instructions, and the display data transmitted in response to the instruction and instruction of the display contents via the web browser to the train stop position display system and the rainfall information display system. is provided with a user terminal 3 for displaying.

The management program 11 has, for example, a CPU (Central Processing Unit), a ROM (Read Only Memory), and a RAM (Random Access Memory), and the CPU reads various programs stored in the ROM, RAM, or the like. to run. An electronic computer such as a personal computer is preferably used for the management system, and a display configured by a liquid crystal display element or an EL (Electro Luminescence) element, a smart phone, or a tablet terminal is preferably used for the user terminal 3 .

Next, a flow diagram of the disaster mitigation system 10 against short-term heavy rain according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG.

The rainfall forecast value acquisition program 12 confirms at regular intervals whether or not the distribution of the observed and forecast values of the area rainfall value by the radar provided by the external organization 1 is made in the server storing the meteorological data. do. It is preferable that the rainfall forecast value acquisition program 12 checks whether or not weather data is stored, for example, at intervals of 10 seconds. By checking the presence or absence of new data at intervals of, for example, 10 seconds in this way, it is possible to eliminate time loss when acquiring external data as much as possible, and to improve the immediacy of the system.

Moreover, the rainfall forecast value acquisition program 12 downloads the rainfall forecast value and the observed value when there is new rainfall forecast value data in the storage server. Also, if the storage server has not been updated, for example, after 10 seconds, it is checked again whether the storage server has been updated.

Also, if the storage server is not updated for a certain period of time, the analysis described below is not performed. This makes it possible to reduce the load on the entire system. The process is restarted when rainfall data is included in the external weather data that is distributed generally periodically. Since inundation/flood analysis uses rainfall forecast values for a certain period of time before and after a certain period of time, the analysis is restarted after all the data for this period have been collected.

The rainfall forecast value and observed value preferably include, for example, a forecast value up to two hours ahead of the forecast start time and an observed value up to two hours before the forecast start time. Moreover, the range of the rainfall data should just include the prediction target area where the presence or absence of a hazard is determined.

The rainfall forecast value preprocessing program 13 is most effective for displaying the optimum mesh size and hazard separately set necessary for inundation/flood analysis, regardless of the mesh size of the external weather data (observed rainfall value, forecast rainfall value). Convert the external weather data to a reasonable mesh size. The mesh size can be appropriately set according to the required processing time and the like.

This makes it possible to consider the user's needs, the topography of the disaster area and the crossing of the railroad tracks, and evaluate the uncertainties on the safe side. If the mesh of the external weather data and the mesh used for the inundation/flood analysis do not completely match, it is preferable to use the largest rainfall value in the external weather data. In addition, the optimum mesh size to be set separately can be considered, for example, from the viewpoint of railway operation, such as the distance of the closed section, the average distance between stations, the distance based on the formation length of the train, etc. , from the aspect of inundation/flood analysis, the size that provides the most reasonable analysis accuracy and analysis time, and from the aspect of hazards related to large-scale landslide disasters, the minimum mesh size for rainfall due to the complexity of the ground and topography. set to

The inundation/flood analysis system 14 performs inundation/flood analysis using the rainfall values created by the rainfall forecast value preprocessing program 13 as input values. Specifically, it analyzes that rain falling on a digital elevation model (DEM) flows into the target river along the slope of the topography. The river flow rate and water level are calculated from the inflow amount, and the overflow judgment is performed. In addition, when it is determined that an overflow will occur, analysis is performed on whether the overflowed flood water flows down the ground surface or spreads.

The inundation/flood analysis output data conversion program 15 compares the inundation depth prediction value calculated by the inundation/flood analysis system 14 with a predetermined threshold to determine whether or not a hazard has occurred. In the disaster mitigation system 10 according to the present embodiment, a background map having two-dimensional plane coordinates is used, and the coordinates of the track coordinates and the coordinates of the optimal mesh size described above are incorporated into this map. A hazard threshold can be set for each mesh. As a result, for example, when it is desired to set different thresholds for route A and route B, thresholds can be set for the mesh corresponding to route A and the mesh corresponding to route B, respectively.

In order to increase the calculation speed, the inundation/flooding analysis is preferably performed using, for example, a 25m mesh as described above. However, when analysis is performed with a 25m mesh, the elevation of detailed structures such as embankments and trenches for railways is not reflected. Therefore, when assessing the hazards of flooding and flooding, the height of the railroad construction base is taken into account when assessing the flooding and flooding of railroads. In the disaster mitigation system 10 for short-term heavy rain according to the present embodiment, the construction ground height of the railway is prepared in advance as a database, and this is referred to in the hazard evaluation stage.

Here, considering the construction ground height of railways, the presence or absence of hazards on railway tracks was initially determined based on the results of inundation and flooding analysis on the ground surface. It was difficult to judge hazards from the results of inundation/overflow analysis based on the height of the ground surface because there are facilities with different heights such as embankments and trench sections. Therefore, it is preferable to set the threshold as follows. First, the position (x, y) of the track and the construction ground height (zb) are registered in the database. However, the construction base height (zb) is the relative height when the ground surface height at the position (x, y) is 0 m. In addition, the inundation depth (zw) obtained from the inundation/flood analysis is assumed to be the depth when the ground surface height is 0 m, and the inundation depth (zwc) is the depth where people cannot walk due to flooded roads. The depth is defined as the depth when the surface height is 0 m, and the threshold is set in advance by the user.

At this time, the following processing is performed according to the analysis result of the inundation/flooding and displayed on the map screen of the system. If zw≧zb at the railroad position, a flood/flood hazard is displayed on the mesh including the railroad. However, for places where zb<0, such as a track being cut off on both sides, if the cumulative rainfall or hourly rainfall is less than the design drainage capacity, the inundation/flooding hazard is not displayed. Also, if zw≧zwc at the embankment position, it is displayed that the bottom of the embankment is flooded and inspection is required. Furthermore, if zw≧zwc at the road position, it is displayed that the ground surface is flooded and cannot be used as an evacuation route. Based on the judgment results above, if the water level is less than the user-specified water level threshold for the mesh for inundation/overflow analysis (for example, the mesh width is 25 m), it is judged as ○, and if it is equal to or higher than the water level threshold, it is judged as ×. Display color coded on the screen as shown.

In addition, in the case of hazards caused by large-scale landslides, the height of the sediment that has flowed down and the height and structure of the railroad tracks in the reaching area, such as embankments, bridges, and bridges, can be easily flowed down or blocked. It is possible to display the evaluation step by step. In the analysis of the evacuation route, information on the presence or absence of flooding and flooding on the ground surface is required. It also holds information on whether or not it exists.

By constructing such a platform, users can freely select the analysis tool used for inundation/flood analysis according to their needs, as long as it has coordinates. In addition, the hazards derived from the results of inundation/flooding analysis and the hazard indications of large-scale landslides differ depending on the facilities to be protected, the water resistance performance of the vehicles, and the conditions of the evacuation routes for passengers. Therefore, by allowing an arbitrary value to be set for the hazard threshold, it is possible to provide the user with information that enables the user to make the most rational decision.

Further, as shown in FIG. 1, the disaster mitigation system 10 for short-term heavy rain according to the present embodiment calculates the rainfall index using the rainfall forecast value and the observed value calculated by the rainfall forecast value preprocessing program 13, Hazard judgment is also performed to extract the sediment reaching area.

The rainfall index calculation program 16 calculates a rainfall index using the rainfall prediction value and the observed value calculated by the rainfall prediction value preprocessing program 13 .

The sediment reaching area extraction program 17 based on the rainfall threshold excess determination is based on the rainfall index calculated by the rainfall index calculation program 16. When the cumulative rainfall and the hourly rainfall reach a separately determined threshold, the cumulative rainfall and the hourly rainfall Performs a yes/no judgment on large-scale landslide disasters based on rainfall forecast values.

The disaster mitigation system 10 for short-term heavy rain according to the present embodiment has explained the case of performing inundation/flood analysis etc. based on the weather data from the external organization 1, but the weather data distributed by the external organization 1 Using the past rainfall data stored in an external storage medium such as a hard disk without using the rainfall forecast value and the observed value of the data, the disaster mitigation system 10 for short-term heavy rain according to this embodiment has a simulation mode can be configured to By using this simulation mode, it is possible to study disaster countermeasures by reproducing past disasters and changing setting parameters.

The disaster mitigation system 10 for short-term heavy rain according to the present embodiment differs in how many hours ahead the rainfall forecast value is required depending on the purpose of use and the size of the target basin of inundation/flood analysis. Depending on the type of rainfall prediction value, there are some that change the calculation method depending on the time of prediction destination. The disaster mitigation system 10 for short-term heavy rain according to the present embodiment considers such a technical background of the distribution destination, and adjusts the time of the prediction destination, such as two hours from now, for example. A plurality of values of predicted values that are most probable in judgment may be used in combination with time intervals. For example, it is possible to use data distributed by company A for one hour from now, and calculated values distributed by company B for one to two hours from now.

In addition, the disaster mitigation system 10 for short-term heavy rain according to the present embodiment described above includes, in the management program 11, the flood hazard by the inundation/flood analysis output data conversion program 15 and the sediment reaching area extraction program 17 based on the rain amount threshold excess determination. We have explained the case of judging two types of hazards, large-scale collapse hazards, by using the display means to stop trains and assist passengers in evacuating according to the analysis results of inundation/flooding hazards and large-scale collapse hazards. You may have it separately. It is clear from the description of the scope of claims that forms with such modifications or improvements can also be included in the technical scope of the present invention.

1 external organization, 3 user terminal, 10 disaster mitigation system, 11 management program, 12 rainfall forecast value acquisition program, 13 rainfall forecast value preprocessing program, 14 inundation/flood analysis system, 15 inundation/flood analysis output data conversion program, 16 rainfall index calculation program, 17 sediment reaching area extraction program based on rainfall threshold excess judgment.

Claims (4)

Railroad vehicles and railways by evaluating and displaying in real time the extent and scale of inundation and flooding along railway lines due to localized short-term heavy rain and heavy rain, and the reach of sediment flowing down rivers due to large-scale collapses. A disaster mitigation system against short-term heavy rain that protects users,
Predicted rainfall value acquisition means for checking the presence or absence of meteorological data including the predicted rainfall value and observed rainfall value acquired from the outside at predetermined time intervals, and acquiring the predicted rainfall value and observed rainfall value;
Precipitation preprocessing means for converting the weather data into a predetermined format and mesh size;
Inundation/flood analysis means for performing inundation/inundation analysis of a predetermined area using the weather data converted by the rainfall preprocessing means as input values;
After the inundation/flood analysis means outputs an analysis result indicating that inundation/flooding will occur, the flood depth prediction value calculated by the inundation/flood analysis means is compared with a predetermined threshold to determine whether or not a hazard has occurred. Inundation/flood analysis output data conversion means for sending the determination result to the train stop position display system,
A disaster mitigation system against short-term heavy rain, wherein the inundation/flood analysis output data conversion means evaluates the presence/absence of inundation/flooding of the railway in consideration of the construction ground height of the railway. In the disaster mitigation system against short-term heavy rain according to claim 1,
A disaster mitigation system against short-term heavy rain, wherein the rainfall forecast value acquiring means confirms the presence or absence of the weather data at intervals of 10 seconds. In the disaster mitigation system against short-term heavy rain according to claim 1 or 2,
The rainfall amount preprocessing means determines grid points with latitude and longitude coordinates and a rectangular mesh size of 25m. In the disaster mitigation system against short-term heavy rain according to any one of claims 1 to 3,
A disaster mitigation system for short-term heavy rain, characterized by having a simulation mode in which said inundation/overflow analysis is performed using past weather data stored in an external storage medium.

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