JP2021174344A - Power sales planing device, power sales planning method and power sales planning program - Google Patents

Abstract

To provide a power sales planning device, a power sales planning method and a power sales planning program for distributing the power amount of a certain future time frame to a supply and demand adjustment market and a wholesale power market.SOLUTION: A power sales planning device 1 includes an adjustment power profit calculation part 22 for calculating an expectation value of profit to be acquired from a supply and demand adjustment power market by a portion of power to be generated by a recyclable energy power supply in the future, a power sales profit calculation part 23 for calculating an expectation value of profit to be acquired from a wholesale power market by a portion of remaining power to be generated in the future, and an output processing part 24 for determining a bid amount to the supply and demand adjustment power market and a bid amount to the wholesale power market on the basis of the expectation value of the profit acquired from the supply and demand adjustment power market and the expectation value of the profit acquired from the wholesale power market.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

The present invention relates to a power sale planning device, a power sale planning method, and a power sale planning program.

As the interconnection of renewable energy power sources whose output fluctuations are affected by weather conditions progresses, it is necessary to secure adjustment power in order to maintain the balance between power supply and demand. The Government of Japan plans to open a "supply and demand adjustment market" from April 2021 with the aim of improving the efficiency of supply and demand operations by procuring wide-area adjustment capabilities.

Currently, when selling electricity in the market, the power generation company needs to present the bid amount for each time frame in 30-minute units by the bid deadline (gate closing) time of the wholesale electricity market. Therefore, a method of predicting the amount of power generated by a renewable energy power source and creating a power sale plan by a computer has been proposed.

The power sale planning device of Patent Document 1 is based on the range of the predicted power generation amount considering the probability, the unit price of power generation, and the penalty imposed on the difference between the actual value of the power generation amount and the bid amount. Create a power sales plan that maximizes. As a penalty, the power sale planning device considers an imbalance charge when the actual value of the power generation amount is insufficient for the bid amount and a bargain price when the actual value of the power generation amount exceeds the bid amount. The electric power transaction support device of Patent Document 2 determines bid amounts for a plurality of markets at the same time. The plurality of markets are the spot market on the previous day and the market one hour before the day.

Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication No. 2015-87886 Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication No. 2016-62191

When the supply and demand adjustment market is opened, power generation companies will improve total profits by selling the power generated by renewable energy power sources not only to the wholesale electricity market but also to the supply and demand adjustment market at the same time. Will also be possible. However, both the power sale planning device of Patent Document 1 and the power transaction support device of Patent Document 2 are intended for power sale in the wholesale power market, and do not consider power sale in the supply and demand adjustment market.

The penalty for failing to meet the response requirements in the supply and demand adjustment market is calculated according to a completely different rule from the penalty in the wholesale electricity market. The electricity trading support device of Patent Document 2 targets a plurality of wholesale electricity markets, but cannot target a supply and demand adjustment market.
Therefore, an object of the present invention is to allocate the amount of electric power of a certain time frame in the future to the supply and demand adjustment market and the wholesale electric power market.

The electricity sales planning device of the present invention has an adjustment power income calculation unit that calculates the expected value of the income that a part of the electricity generated by the renewable energy power source in the future will be obtained from the supply and demand adjustment power market, and the remaining electricity to be generated in the future. The power supply and demand adjustment power market is based on the power sales revenue calculation department, which calculates the expected value of profits obtained from the wholesale electricity market, and the expected value of profits obtained from the supply and demand adjustment power market and the expected value of profits obtained from the wholesale electricity market. It is characterized by including an output processing unit for determining the bid amount for the wholesale electricity market and the bid amount for the wholesale electricity market.
Other means will be described in the form for carrying out the invention.

According to the present invention, it is possible to allocate the amount of electric power of a certain time frame in the future to the supply and demand adjustment market and the wholesale electric power market.

It is a figure explaining the structure of the power sale planning apparatus. This is an example of the output display of the generator. It is a figure explaining the power generation amount of time series and the probability distribution of the power generation amount. It is a figure which shows the relationship between the unachieved rate and the profit after a penalty. It is a flowchart of a processing procedure.

Hereinafter, a mode for carrying out the present invention (referred to as “the present embodiment”) will be described in detail with reference to figures and the like. This embodiment is an example of simultaneously allocating the electric power generated by the renewable energy power source to the supply and demand adjustment market and the wholesale electric power market. The renewable energy power source is, for example, a solar power generator or a wind power generator. However, the present invention is also applicable to generators other than renewable energy power sources.

(Configuration of power sales planning device)
FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a configuration of a power sale planning device 1. The power sale planning device 1 is a general computer, and includes a central control device 11, an input device 12 such as a mouse and a keyboard, an output device 13 such as a display, a main storage device 14, an auxiliary storage device 15, and a communication device 16. .. These are connected to each other by a bus. The auxiliary storage device 15 stores the generator DB (Data Base) 31 and the transaction price DB 32 (details will be described later).

The input processing unit 21, the adjusting power revenue calculation unit 22, the power sales revenue calculation unit 23, and the output processing unit 24 in the main storage device 14 are programs. The central control device 11 reads these programs from the auxiliary storage device 15 and loads them into the main storage device 14, thereby realizing the functions of the respective programs (details will be described later). The auxiliary storage device 15 may have a configuration independent of the power sale planning device 1. The power generation amount prediction device 3 is directly connected to the power sales planning device 1 via the network 2 or not via the network 2.

(Generator DB)
The generator DB 31 stores the past and present outputs of the renewable energy power source (hereinafter referred to as “generator”) owned by the power generation company in chronological order. The output device 13 can display the output (unit: kW) of the generator as an instantaneous value in, for example, a time frame of 30 minutes (see FIG. 2). The generator DB 31 also stores past weather information. Further, the generator DB 31 also stores the probability P (t) that the result of the assessment 2 in the future time frame t is out of the permissible range (details will be described later).

(Transaction price DB)
The transaction price DB 32 stores the values of each of the current and past parameters (detailed later) in the supply and demand adjustment market and the wholesale electricity market in time series, and also stores the values of each future parameter in time series. The input processing unit 21 predicts the value of each parameter in the future time frame t based on the value of each parameter in the past.

(Power generation amount prediction device)
The power generation amount prediction device 3 acquires past weather information and past power generation amount from the generator DB 31 in chronological order, and based on the acquired data, uses a neural network, a multiple regression equation, or the like to perform a future time frame t. The probability distribution of the amount of power generation y in the above is calculated (see FIG. 3, detailed later). The probability of power generation y follows a normal distribution.

(Wholesale electricity market)
The wholesale power market is a market for selling the amount of power generated by a power generation company to a general power transmission and distribution business operator. The power generation company generates electric energy (unit: kWh) and unit price (unit: yen / yen /) by the predetermined time on the previous day for each "time frame" in which 24 hours a day is evenly divided into 30 minutes. kWh) is bid. The general power transmission and distribution business operator bids the amount of electric power (unit: kWh) and the unit price (unit: yen / kWh) to be procured for each time frame by a predetermined time on the previous day.

In general, the unit price for selling and bidding by a power generation company is higher than the unit price for buying and bidding by a general power transmission and distribution business operator. In other words, power generation companies want to sell electricity at a higher price, and general power transmission and distribution companies want to procure it at a lower price. A transaction is concluded (contracted) for the amount of power generation for which the unit prices bid by both parties match. The unit price that matches at this time is called the "contract unit price". For power producers, not all bids are contracted.

(Penalty in the wholesale electricity market)
The amount of power generated by a generator varies greatly depending on natural conditions such as sunshine hours and wind speed. Power generation companies often carefully predict future natural conditions, such as the next day, and bid for electric energy conservatively. Nevertheless, it is possible that the actual amount of electricity generated may fall below the bid due to sudden changes in natural conditions that are difficult to predict. On the contrary, the actual value of power generation may exceed the bid amount.

The power generation company pays a penalty (unit: yen / kWh) to the exchange for the difference (deficiency) obtained by subtracting the actual value of the power generation amount from the bid amount. This penalty is sometimes referred to as the "imbalance unit price". The power generation company must sell power in the market at a unit price (0 yen / kWh in the extreme case) that is significantly lower than the contracted unit price for the difference (excess) obtained by subtracting the bid amount from the actual value of the power generation amount. It doesn't become.

(Supply and demand adjustment market)
Immediately before the time frame, the balance between supply and demand of electric power may be greatly disrupted. In this case, the general power transmission and distribution business operator needs to instruct the power generation business operator to adjust the output of the generator. Adjustments include ascending and descending adjustments. Regardless of the adjustment in either direction, changing the output scheduled for a certain time frame immediately before the time frame imposes a cost on the power generation company. In other words, accepting adjustments for which it is unknown in advance when they will be ordered, after bearing the costs themselves, is the subject of the transaction as "adjustment power". The market in which adjustment power is traded is the supply and demand adjustment market.

In the electric power industry, the adjusting force is described as "ΔkW", and the unit is "kW". Then, for each "product block" (six consecutive time frames) in which 24 hours a day are evenly divided into three hours, the power generation company has the adjustment power (unit: kW) and the adjustment power unit price (unit: yen). / KW) is bid. Similar to the wholesale electricity market, in the supply and demand adjustment market, the unit price for selling and bidding by a power generation company is generally higher than the unit price for buying and bidding by a general power transmission and distribution business operator. A transaction is concluded (contracted) with respect to the adjustment power that the unit prices bid by both parties match. Not all adjustments bid by power producers are contracted.

For example, the fact that the power generation company sells the adjusting power of 50,000 kW in the upward direction to the general power transmission and distribution company means that the power generation company has the following obligations 1 and 2.
<Obligation 1> Maintain the generator in a state where the output (instantaneous value) of the generator can be increased by 50,000 kW at the time of actual supply and demand after the contract.
<Obligation 2> If you actually receive a command from a general power transmission and distribution business operator, respond to it.

After the adjustment force is contracted, there may be actual commands or no commands. In some cases, the commanded adjustment force is less than the contracted adjustment force. If there is no command, only the consideration for the adjustment power (adjustment power x adjustment power unit price) will be settled. When there is a directive, the consideration for the adjustment power is settled, and separately, the consideration for the electric energy traded as a result of the adjustment is also settled. The electric energy here is called "adjusted electric energy" (unit: kWh), and the unit price multiplied by this is called "adjusted electric energy unit price" (unit: yen / kWh). The adjusted electric energy unit price is a different concept from the unit price in the wholesale electricity market. The power generation company is scheduled to register the adjusted electric energy unit price with the exchange in advance.

(assessment)
In order to make the supply and demand adjustment market effective, it is necessary to evaluate how faithfully the power generation companies have fulfilled the above obligations 1 and 2. This assessment is called an "assessment". The details of the assessment will be described later, but the revenue (sales) received from the supply and demand adjustment market by the power generation company is the amount that reflects the assessment based on the total (full amount) of the adjustment power consideration and the adjustment power amount consideration. Just get smaller.

(Assessment 1)
Assessment 1 evaluates whether or not the generator owned by the power generation company could really increase the output by the contracted adjustment power. That is, assessment 1 evaluates the ratio (non-delivery rate) of the undeliverable amount to the winning bid amount of the adjusting power. The higher the non-delivery rate, the greater the penalty imposed on the power generation company. Because otherwise, malicious generators "short-sell" adjustments that don't really exist.

ΔkW Revenue = ΔkW Successful Bid Amount x (1-Unachieved Rate x 1.5) (Equation 1)
Undelivered rate = (ΔkW successful bid amount-deliverable amount) / ΔkW successful bid amount (Equation 2)

In Equation 1, the ΔkW revenue is the amount that the power generation company receives from the exchange as consideration for the adjustment power, and is the amount after the penalty is imposed. ΔkW earnings can be negative. The ΔkW successful bid amount is the amount obtained by multiplying the successful bid adjustment force (unit: kW) by the adjustment force unit price (unit: yen / kW). The constant "1.5" multiplied by the non-achievement rate is a constant for effectively expressing the penalty. The fixed number is set to a level that can prevent the power generation company from offsetting the penalty with the profit obtained by reselling the unachieved amount of electricity in the wholesale electricity market.

In Equation 2, the ΔkW successful bid amount is the adjusting power for the successful bid. The amount that can be delivered is the remaining capacity (unit: kW) that can respond to the command out of the maximum output of the generator. If "ΔkW successful bid amount <deliverable amount" is established, no penalty is imposed.

(Assessment 2)
Assessment 2 evaluates whether or not the output (unit: kW) of the generator owned by the power generation company has been adjusted to the commanded output. More specifically, Assessment 2 evaluates whether or not the actual value Q (unit: kW) of the output of the generator is within the following lower and upper limit ranges (referred to as “allowable range”). Since the unit of the command is "kW", the unit of the actual value Q of the output of the generator is also matched with "kW". The actual value Q of the output of the generator is distinguished from the actual value y (unit: kWh) of the amount of power generation in the function described later.
・ Lower limit = Command value-ΔkW Successful bid amount x 0.1
・ Upper limit = command value + ΔkW successful bid amount x 0.1

-If Q is within the permissible range, Equation 3 holds.
ΔkW Revenue = ΔkW Revenue after Assessment 1 (Equation 3)
If Q is out of the permissible range, Equation 4 holds.
ΔkW Revenue = ΔkW Successful Bid Amount x (-0.5) (Equation 4)

Equation 4 is obtained by substituting "1" for the non-achievement rate in Equation 1. That is, the ΔkW revenue when “Q <lower limit or Q> upper limit” in assessment 2 is the same as the ΔkW revenue when the amount that can be provided is “0” in assessment 1.

(Unachieved rate and profit after penalty)
FIG. 4 is a diagram showing the relationship between the non-delivery rate and the profit after the penalty. Equation 5 is obtained by dividing both sides of Equation 1 by the "ΔkW successful bid amount". The horizontal axis of FIG. 4 is the non-delivery rate of the right side of the equation 5, and the vertical axis of FIG. 4 is the left side of the equation 5.
ΔkW Revenue / ΔkW Successful Bid Amount = 1-Unachieved Rate x 1.5 (Equation 5)

Of the "ΔkW profit / ΔkW successful bid amount" on the vertical axis, the "ΔkW successful bid amount" is known. After all, the solid line graph 41 and the broken line graph 42 in FIG. 2 show the relationship between the unachieved rate and the ΔkW profit. .. Of these, the solid line graph 41 shows the relationship between the unachieved rate and the ΔkW profit when the actual value Q of the output of the generator is out of the permissible range. The broken line graph 42 shows the relationship between the unachieved rate and the ΔkW profit when the actual value Q of the output of the generator is within the permissible range.

Looking at FIG. 4, the following can be seen.
-In assessment 2, if the actual value Q of the output of the generator is out of the permissible range, the "ΔkW profit / ΔkW successful bid amount" is -50% regardless of the result of assessment 1. This is a very severe penalty.
-In Assessment 2, when the actual value Q of the output of the generator is within the permissible range, the larger the non-achievement rate, the smaller the "ΔkW profit / ΔkW successful bid amount". If the non-delivery rate is 0%, the "ΔkW profit / ΔkW successful bid amount" is 100%. If the non-delivery rate is 100%, the "ΔkW profit / ΔkW successful bid amount" is -50%. The positive / negative boundary of "ΔkW profit / ΔkW successful bid amount" is around 67% of the non-delivery rate.

(function)
The power generation company can allocate the amount of power generation predicted in the future time frame to the supply and demand adjustment market and the wholesale power market and bid. In this case, the revenues at time frame t, the bid amount x ₁ in adjusting supply and demand _market, bid amount x ₂ in wholesale electric power _market, and a function of the actual value y of the power generation amount. That is, the following values are the variables of the function.
・ Bid amount of adjustment power in the supply and demand adjustment market: x ₁ (unit: kW)
・ Bid amount of power generation in the wholesale electricity market: x ₂ (unit: kWh)
・ Actual value of power generation: y (unit: kWh)

If y is given, determining the combination of x ₁ and x ₂ to maximize revenue is aim of the present invention. When y is taken as a whole, x ₁ is a part thereof and x ₂ is the remainder. Therefore, it becomes necessary to align the units of y, x ₁ and x _2. In the following description, "x ₁ " is multiplied by "0.5" and then added / subtracted / compared with _{"y" or "x 2".} That is, "y = 0.5 * x ₁ + x ₂ " is conceptually established between the variables. “0.5” here is due to the fact that the length of the time frame is 0.5 h. x ₁ and x ₂ are pre-values at the time of bidding, while y is a post-value at the time of actual supply and demand (time frame). Therefore, the function of the present embodiment is used on the premise that it is unknown whether or not "y = 0.5 * x ₁ + x _{2" actually holds.}

The power sale planning device 1 "predicts" that the variable y becomes such an "actual result". In that sense, it makes sense to define y as the "predicted value" of power generation. However, y is defined as "actual value of power generation amount" because it is an ex post facto value as described above. In addition, "*" means multiplication, and for the sake of simplicity of explanation, the bid amount is assumed to be the same as the approximate fixed amount.

In the following, this function will be used to specifically express revenue. This function has the following parameters.
・ ΔkW unit price in the supply and demand adjustment market: a ₁ (unit: yen / kW)
・ Adjusted electric energy unit price in the supply and demand adjustment market: a ₂ (unit: yen / kWh)
・ Wholesale electricity market contract unit price: b ₂ (unit: yen / kWh)
・ Penalty unit price when the actual value of power generation does not reach the bid amount in the wholesale electricity market: α (unit: yen / kWh)
・ Cheap purchase unit price when the actual value of power generation exceeds the bid amount in the wholesale electricity market: β (unit: yen / kWh)

(Revenue from the supply and demand adjustment market)
<1> The ΔkW revenue obtained from the supply and demand adjustment market is as follows.
<1-1> The ΔkW profit after the assessment 1 is carried out is expressed by Equations 6 to 8. In addition, M (y) is an unachieved rate.
・ When "y <0.5 * x ₁ "
ΔkW Revenue = a ₁ * x ₁ * (1-M (y) * 1.5) (Equation 6)
M (y) = (0.5 * x ₁ −y) / (0.5 * x ₁ ) (Equation 7)
・ When “y ≧ 0.5 * x ₁ ”
ΔkW Revenue = a ₁ * x ₁ (Equation 8)

As can be seen by comparing Equations 2 and 7 that define the non-delivery rate, in the present embodiment, the actual value y of the power generation amount is regarded as the deliverable amount for the sake of simplification of the explanation.

<1-2> The ΔkW profit after the assessment 2 is carried out is expressed by the formulas 9 and 10.
・ If the result of Assessment 2 (actual value Q of generator output) is within the permissible range,
ΔkW Revenue = ΔkW Revenue after Assessment 1 (Equation 9)
・ If the result of Assessment 2 is out of the permissible range
ΔkW Revenue = a ₁ * x ₁ * (-0.5) (Equation 10)

<2> The “kWh profit” obtained from selling the adjusted electric energy in the supply and demand adjustment market is expressed by the formula 11.
kWh revenue = 0.5 * x ₁ * a ₂ (Equation 11)

(Revenue from the wholesale electricity market)
<3> The “kWh profit” obtained from selling the amount of power generated in the wholesale electricity market is expressed by the formulas 12 and 13.
・ When "y-0.5 * x ₁ <x ₂ "
kWh Revenue = b ₂ * x _2- α (x _2- (y-0.5 * x ₁ )) (Equation 12)
・ When "y-0.5 * x ₁ ≥ x ₂ "
kWh revenue = b ₂ * x ₂ (Equation 13)

<4> The "excess profit" obtained by selling the excess amount of power generation in the wholesale electricity market is expressed by the formulas 14 and 15.
・ When "y-0.5 * x _1- x ₂ >0",
Excess income = β (y-0.5 * x _1- x ₂ ) (Equation 14)
・ When "y-0.5 * x _1- x ₂ ≤ 0"
Excess revenue = 0 (Equation 15)

Ｍ（ｙ）＝（０.５*ｘ_１−ｙ）／（０.５*ｘ_１） （式１７） (Expected value of profit from supply and demand adjustment market)
Assuming that the probability density function of the actual value y of the amount of power generation in the time frame t is f (y), the expected value “EX _A1 (x ₁ , t)” of the ΔkWh profit after the execution of the assessment 1 is expressed by the formulas 16 and 17. Be expressed.

M (y) = (0.5 * x ₁ −y) / (0.5 * x ₁ ) (Equation 17)

Assuming that the probability that the result of assessment 2 in the time frame t is out of the permissible range is P (t), the expected value of ΔkWh profit after the implementation of assessment 2 “EX _A2 (x ₁ , t)” is expressed by Equation 18. NS.
EX _A2 (x ₁ , t) = a ₁ * x ₁ * (-0.5) * P (t)
+ EX _A1 (x ₁ , t) * (1-P (t)) (Equation 18)

From the above, in the time frame t, the expected value “EX ₁ (x ₁ , t)” of the profit obtained from the supply and demand adjustment market is expressed by the equation 19 including the one due to the sale of the adjusted electric energy.
EX ₁ (x ₁ , t) = EX _A2 (x ₁ , t) +0.5 * x ₁ * a ₂ (Equation 19)

(Expected value of profit from wholesale electricity market)
In the time frame t, the expected value “EX ₂ (x ₁ , x ₂ , t)” of the profit obtained from the wholesale electricity market is expressed by the equation 20.

(Expected value of total profit from supply and demand adjustment market and wholesale electricity market)
_{From the above, the expected value “Z (x 1} , x ₂ , t)” of the total profit obtained from the supply and demand adjustment market and the wholesale electricity market in the time frame t is expressed by the equation 21.
Z (x ₁ , x ₂ , t) = EX ₁ (x ₁ , t) + EX ₂ (x ₁ , x ₂ , t) (Equation 21)
As is clear from Equation 21, Z (x ₁ , x ₂ , t) in the time frame t is a function of the bid amount x _{1 in the} supply and demand adjustment market and the bid amount x _{2 in the wholesale electricity market.} In Equation 21, y is deleted assuming that it takes a given value, but y is also a variable of the function.

(Processing procedure)
FIG. 5 is a flowchart of the processing procedure.
In step S101, the input processing unit 21 of the power sale planning device 1 receives the data. More specifically, the first, input processing unit 21, the probability distribution of the power generation amount y at a future time frame _t (μ _t, σ _t) and receives from the power generation amount prediction apparatus 3. The power generation amount prediction device 3 acquires the past weather information and the power generation amount in time series from the generator DB 31 of the power sale planning device 1 in advance, and based on the acquired data, obtains the power generation amount y in an arbitrary time frame t in the future. It is created and stored as a probability distribution (μ _t , σ _t). Note that "μ _t " is the average value and "σ _t " is the standard deviation. The probability distribution (μ _t , σ _t ) here is the same as f (y) described above.

Second, the input processing unit 21 reads out the predicted value such as the contract unit price in the future time frame t from the transaction price DB 32. The contracted unit price and the like here are the parameters (a ₁ , a ₂ , b ₂ , α and β) of the above-mentioned function. The input processing unit 21 stores the actual value such as the past contract unit price on the exchange in the transaction price DB 32. Further, the input processing unit 21 calculates a predicted value such as a contract unit price in an arbitrary time frame t in the future based on the stored data, and stores it in the transaction price DB 32.

Third, the input processing unit 21 reads from the generator DB 31 the probability P (t) that the result of the assessment 2 in the future time frame t is out of the permissible range. The input processing unit 21 stores the result of the past assessment 2 on the exchange in the generator DB 31, and based on the stored data, the probability P (the result of the assessment 2 in any future time frame t is out of the permissible range). t) is calculated and stored in the generator DB 31.

In step S102, the input processing unit 21 sets “t = 1”. Specifically, the input processing unit 21 substitutes "1" for the first counter t. The first counter is for managing the number of repeated processes in steps S103 to S109, but is also t (t = 1, 2, 3, ...) Indicates the time point of the time frame.

In step S103, the input processing unit 21 sets “i = 0” and initializes the bid amount. Specifically, first, "0" is assigned to the second counter i. The second counter is for generating a combination of the adjustment power bid amount x ₁ in the supply and demand adjustment market and the power generation amount bid amount x _{2 in the wholesale electricity market.}

Second, the input processing unit 21, based on the following rules, and generates the initial values of and x ₂ of x _1. Here "mu _t" is the mean value of the power generation amount y accepted in "first" in step S101. It should be noted that "0.5 * x ₁ (t, i) + x ₂ (t, i) = μ _t " is established.

<Rule>
x ₁ (t, i) = i / 0.5
x ₂ (t, i) = μ _{t −} i

Step S103 When via the combination of _{x 1} and _{x 2,} the initial value _{"(x 1, x 2)} = (0, μ t)" becomes. By the way, each time it goes through step S108 later, this combination is "(x ₁ , x ₂ ) = (2, μ _t -1), (4, μ _t -2), (6, μ _t -3).・ ・ ”Is changing.

In step S104, the adjustment power revenue calculation unit 22 of the power sales planning device 1 calculates the expected value of the revenue obtained from the supply and demand adjustment market. Specifically, the adjusting power revenue calculation unit 22 substitutes the values of _{the variables y and x 1} and the parameters a ₁ and a _{2 into the function.} The function here is Equation 19. Although the right side of the equation 19 is simply expressed, the input processing unit 21 can substitute all the values of these variables and parameters into the right side. The adjusting power revenue calculation unit 22 will calculate “EX ₁ (x ₁ , t)”.

In step S105, the electricity sales revenue calculation unit 23 of the electricity sales planning device 1 calculates the expected value of the revenue obtained from the wholesale electricity market. Specifically, the power sales revenue calculation unit 23 _{substitutes the values of the variables y, x 1} and x ₂ and the parameters b ₂ , α and β into the function. The function here is Equation 20. The power sale revenue calculation unit 23 will calculate "EX ₂ (x ₁ , x ₂ , t)".

In step S106, the output processing unit 24 of the power sale planning device 1 calculates the total profit. Specifically, first, the output processing unit 24 _{substitutes "EX 1} (x ₁ , t)" and "EX ₂ (x ₁ , x ₂ , t)" for the function to "Z". (X ₁ , x ₂ , t) ”is calculated. The function here is Equation 21.
Secondly, the output processing unit 24 _{associates the "Z (x 1} , x ₂ )" calculated in the "first" of step S106 with _{the combination "(x 1} , x _{2)" being processed.} It is temporarily stored in the main storage device 14.
_{Each time the combination "(x 1} , x ₂ , Z, t)" is passed through step S106, the combination "(x 1, x 2, Z, t)" is accumulated one by one. However, t takes the same value.

In step S107, the output processing unit 24 determines whether or not i has reached a predetermined value. Specifically, when i reaches a predetermined value n (step S107 “Yes”), the output processing unit 24 has the _{maximum Z among the combinations “(x 1} , x ₂ , Z, t)”. Hold the object and proceed to step S109. In other cases (step S107 “No”), the output processing unit 24 proceeds to step S108. The user, in consideration of the time required for the iterative process, but arbitrarily determine the value of n, it is desirable that the n = μ _t.

In step S108, the input processing unit 21 of the power sale planning device 1 sets “i = i + 1” and changes the bid amount. Specifically, the input processing unit 21, in terms of changing the values of and x ₂ of x ₁ by adding 1 to the second counter i, the flow returns to step S104.
In subsequent steps S104 and S105, with respect to function, the value of _{x 2} after the value and change of _{x 1} after the change is assigned.

In step S109, the output processing unit 24 of the power sale planning device 1 determines whether or not t has reached a predetermined value. Specifically, when t reaches a predetermined value m (step S109 “Yes”), the output processing unit 24 has the _{maximum Z among the combinations “(x 1} , x ₂ , Z, t)”. The thing is held every t (t = 1, 2, 3, ...) And the process proceeds to step S111. In other cases (step S109 “No”), the output processing unit 24 proceeds to step S110. The user arbitrarily determines the value of n according to the number of time frames included in the product block to be bid.

In step S110, the input processing unit 21 of the power sale planning device 1 sets “t = t + 1”. Specifically, the input processing unit 21 adds 1 to the first counter t, and then returns to step S103.

In step S111, the output processing unit 24 of the power sale planning device 1 outputs the power sale plan. Specifically, the output processing unit 24 determines the combination "(x ₁ , x ₂ , Z, t)" in which Z is the largest, and t (t = 1, 2, 3, ... ) Is displayed on the output device 13. After that, the processing procedure ends.

(Effect of this embodiment)
The effects of the power sales planning device of this embodiment are as follows.
(1) The electricity sales planning device can determine the distribution of the bid amount to the supply and demand adjustment market and the bid amount to the wholesale electricity market for the same time frame.
(2) The power sale planning device can be applied to wind power generation.
(3) The electricity sales planning device can maximize the sum of the profits obtained from the supply and demand adjustment market and the profits obtained from the wholesale electricity market.
(4) The electricity sales planning device can consider the penalty in the supply and demand adjustment market and other penalties in the wholesale electricity market.
(5) The power sales planning device can consider assessment 1 and assessment 2 in the supply and demand adjustment market.
(6) The power sales planning device can predict the adjustment power unit price and the power unit price required to determine the distribution of the bid amount.

The present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiment, and includes various modifications. For example, the above-described embodiment has been described in detail in order to explain the present invention in an easy-to-understand manner, and is not necessarily limited to the one including all the configurations described. Further, it is possible to replace a part of the configuration of one embodiment with the configuration of another embodiment, and it is also possible to add the configuration of another embodiment to the configuration of one embodiment. Further, it is possible to add / delete / replace a part of the configuration of each embodiment with another configuration.

Further, each of the above-mentioned configurations, functions, processing units, processing means and the like may be realized by hardware by designing a part or all of them by, for example, an integrated circuit. Further, each of the above configurations, functions, and the like may be realized by software by the processor interpreting and executing a program that realizes each function. Information such as programs, tables, and files that realize each function can be placed in a memory, a hard disk, a recording device such as an SSD (Solid State Drive), or a recording medium such as an IC card, an SD card, or a DVD.
In addition, control lines and information lines are shown as necessary for explanation, and not all control lines and information lines are shown in the product. In practice, it can be considered that almost all configurations are interconnected.

1 Power sales planning device 2 Network 3 Power generation amount prediction device 11 Central control device 12 Input device 13 Output device 14 Main storage device 15 Auxiliary storage device 16 Communication device 21 Input processing unit 22 Coordinating power revenue calculation unit 23 Power sales revenue calculation unit 24 Output processing unit 31 Generator DB
32 Transaction price DB

Claims (8)

Renewable energy power source has the ability to adjust the supply and demand of some of the electricity generated in the future.
The electricity sales revenue calculation unit that calculates the expected value of revenue that the remaining part of the electricity generated in the future will be obtained from the wholesale electricity market,
An output processing unit that determines the bid amount for the supply and demand adjustment power market and the bid amount for the wholesale power market based on the expected value of the profit obtained from the supply and demand adjustment power market and the expected value of the profit obtained from the wholesale electricity market.
A power sales planning device characterized by being equipped with. The renewable energy power source is
Including wind power generators,
The power sale planning device according to claim 1. The output processing unit
The bid amount for the supply and demand adjustment power market and the bid amount for the wholesale electricity market are determined so that the sum of the expected value of the profit obtained from the supply and demand adjustment power market and the expected value of the profit obtained from the wholesale electricity market is maximized. matter,
The power sale planning device according to claim 2. The adjustment power revenue calculation unit
Based on the adjustment power, the adjustment power unit price, and the penalty applied to the supply and demand adjustment power market, the expected value of the profit obtained from the supply and demand adjustment power market is calculated.
The power sales revenue calculation unit
Calculate the expected value of revenue from the wholesale electricity market based on the amount of electricity, the unit price of electricity, and other penalties applied to the wholesale electricity market.
The power generated in the future is
To be calculated based on the probability distribution based on past values,
The power sale planning device according to claim 3. The penalty applied to the supply and demand adjustment power market is
A penalty for evaluating whether or not the renewable energy power source was able to increase the output by the contracted adjustment force, and
Including a penalty to evaluate whether the output of the renewable energy power source has been adjusted to the commanded output.
The power sale planning device according to claim 4. Provided with an input processing unit for calculating future predicted values of the adjusting power unit price and the electric energy unit price based on the past results of the adjusting power unit price and the electric energy unit price.
The power sale planning device according to claim 5. The Coordinating Power Revenue Calculation Department of the power sales planning device
Calculate the expected value of the profit that a part of the electricity generated by the renewable energy power source in the future will be obtained from the supply and demand adjustment power market.
The power sales revenue calculation unit of the power sales planning device
Calculate the expected value of profit that the remaining part of the electricity generated in the future will be obtained from the wholesale electricity market.
The output processing unit of the power sale planning device is
To determine the bid amount for the supply and demand adjustment power market and the bid amount for the wholesale power market based on the expected value of the profit obtained from the supply and demand adjustment power market and the expected value of the profit obtained from the wholesale electricity market.
A method for planning the sale of electricity of a power sale planning device, which is characterized by the above. Computer,
Renewable energy power source has the ability to adjust the supply and demand of some of the electricity generated in the future.
The electricity sales revenue calculation unit that calculates the expected value of revenue that the remaining part of the electricity generated in the future will be obtained from the wholesale electricity market,
An output processing unit that determines the bid amount for the supply and demand adjustment power market and the bid amount for the wholesale power market based on the expected value of the profit obtained from the supply and demand adjustment power market and the expected value of the profit obtained from the wholesale electricity market.
A power sales planning program characterized by functioning.

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