JP2020191764A - Photovoltaic power generation output estimation device, photovoltaic power generation output estimation method and photovoltaic power generation output estimation program - Google Patents

Abstract

To estimate a photovoltaic power generation output without need for newly installing a number of pyranometers and a measuring instrument with sufficiently high time resolution.SOLUTION: A photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 includes a storage device 140 for storing user's power consumption which is user's apparent power consumption in first photovoltaic power generation facility and a second photovoltaic power generation output which is a photovoltaic power generation output of second photovoltaic power generation facility installed within a predetermined distance from the first photovoltaic power generation facility, and a power generation output estimation device 130 for estimating a first photovoltaic power generation output at a predetermined estimation point of the first photovoltaic power generation facility on the basis of the second photovoltaic power generation output and user's power consumption.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

The present invention relates to estimating the power output of a photovoltaic power generation facility.

In recent years, the importance of expanding the use of renewable energy has increased, and distributed power sources such as photovoltaic power generation facilities have been installed to supply power to power transmission systems or distribution systems (hereinafter referred to as power systems). The number of consumers is increasing. On the other hand, although electric power companies that operate electric power systems know the power generation output of some photovoltaic power generation facilities, they cannot grasp the power generation output of many photovoltaic power generation facilities. Therefore, a device for estimating the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation equipment installed by each customer has been proposed (see, for example, Patent Document 1). The above-mentioned photovoltaic power generation equipment whose power generation output can be grasped is the photovoltaic power generation equipment which is subject to the total purchase contract, and the photovoltaic power generation equipment whose power generation output cannot be grasped is subject to the surplus purchase contract. It is a solar power generation facility. This is a smart meter that measures the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation equipment and a smart meter that measures the amount of power consumption of the load inside the customer for consumers who own the photovoltaic power generation equipment that is covered by the purchase contract. While the meters are installed individually, for consumers who own the photovoltaic power generation equipment that is subject to the surplus purchase contract, the total value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment and the power consumption of the load is measured. This is because only smart meters are installed.

Patent Document 1 is a photovoltaic power generation output estimation device that estimates a photovoltaic power generation output, which is a photovoltaic power generation output at a predetermined time point of a photovoltaic power generation facility that supplies power to a load connected to an electric power system. In the previous period, when the south-middle altitude of the sun is within a predetermined range from the south-middle altitude at a predetermined time, the photovoltaic power generation output is used by using the solar radiation intensity at a predetermined point and the active power of the power system. A photovoltaic power generation output estimation device is disclosed, which comprises a power generation output estimation unit for estimating the above. This photovoltaic power generation output estimation device uses the solar radiation intensity measured by a solar radiation meter installed around the substation and the active power measured by a measuring instrument installed in the substation, etc., and the sun connected to the power system. Estimate the power output of the photovoltaic power generation facility.

Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication No. 2016-139270

If a large number of photovoltaic power generation facilities are introduced in a situation where electric power companies and the like cannot grasp the power generation output of many photovoltaic power generation facilities, various problems will occur in the operation of the power system. At electric power companies, etc., at substations under their jurisdiction, the power consumption of the apparent power system load (hereinafter referred to as "apparent load") that takes into account the power output of the photovoltaic power generation equipment is measured with a measuring instrument or the like. Although it can be measured, the total power output of all the photovoltaic power generation facilities connected to the power system is unknown, so the actual power consumption (hereinafter referred to as "actual load") can be accurately grasped. Can not do it. For this reason, when a large number of photovoltaic power generation facilities are introduced, there is an increased risk in supply and demand control that the prediction error of the actual load power consumption, which is predicted by using multiple regression analysis, becomes large. The risk of system control that the recovery operation after a system accident is hindered increases.

Therefore, it is necessary to accurately estimate the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility. However, according to the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device of Patent Document 1, it is necessary to install many pyranometers for measuring the solar radiation intensity, and the measurement and recording have a sufficiently high time resolution, that is, a sufficiently high sampling cycle. It becomes necessary to install a measuring instrument that can be used. Further, since the estimation is performed in units of a substation or the like, there is a problem that the estimation accuracy decreases as the amount of installed photovoltaic power generation equipment connected to the target power system becomes smaller than the actual load. Therefore, in order to estimate the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility connected to the power system with high accuracy, there are technical and cost problems.

Therefore, the present invention has been made in view of such a problem, and the photovoltaic power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility without newly installing many pyranometers and measuring instruments having sufficiently high time resolution. The purpose is to estimate.

The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device of one aspect of the present invention is predetermined from the consumer power consumption, which is the apparent power consumption of the consumer in which the first photovoltaic power generation facility is installed, and the first photovoltaic power generation facility. Based on the storage unit that stores the second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the photovoltaic power generation output of the second photovoltaic power generation facility, installed within a long distance, and the second photovoltaic power generation output and consumer power consumption. , A photovoltaic power generation output estimation unit that estimates the first photovoltaic power generation output, which is the photovoltaic power generation output at a predetermined estimation time point of the first photovoltaic power generation facility, is provided.

Since the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device of one aspect of the present invention estimates the first photovoltaic power generation output based on the second photovoltaic power generation output and the consumer power consumption, it has many pyranometers and sufficiently high time resolution. It is possible to estimate the first photovoltaic power generation output without newly installing a measuring instrument.

It is a block diagram of the photovoltaic power generation output estimation system of Embodiment 1. It is a block diagram which shows the function of the photovoltaic power generation output estimation apparatus of Embodiment 1. It is a figure which shows the hardware composition of the photovoltaic power generation output estimation apparatus of Embodiment 1. It is a flowchart which shows an example of the estimation process of the 1st photovoltaic power generation output by the photovoltaic power generation output estimation apparatus of Embodiment 1. It is a flowchart which shows an example of the acquisition process of the 1st covariance by the 1st covariance acquisition part. It is a flowchart which shows an example of the acquisition process of the 2nd covariance by the 2nd covariance acquisition part. It is a flowchart which shows an example of the estimation process of the 1st photovoltaic power generation output by a power generation output estimation part. It is a figure which shows the measured value of the 1st photovoltaic power generation output. It is a figure which shows the estimated value of the 1st photovoltaic power generation output by the photovoltaic power generation output estimation apparatus of Embodiment 1. It is a figure which shows the histogram of the error of the estimated value of the 1st photovoltaic power generation output by the photovoltaic power generation output estimation apparatus of Embodiment 1. It is a figure which shows the measured value of the 1st photovoltaic power generation output. It is a figure which shows the estimated value of the 1st photovoltaic power generation output by the photovoltaic power generation output estimation apparatus of Embodiment 2. It is a figure which shows the histogram of the error of the estimated value of the 1st photovoltaic power generation output by the photovoltaic power generation output estimation apparatus of Embodiment 2. It is a figure which shows the measured value of the 1st photovoltaic power generation output. It is a figure which shows the estimated value of the 1st photovoltaic power generation output by the photovoltaic power generation output estimation apparatus of Embodiment 3. It is a figure which shows the histogram of the error of the estimated value of the 1st photovoltaic power generation output by the photovoltaic power generation output estimation apparatus of Embodiment 3. It is a figure which shows the measured value of the 1st photovoltaic power generation output. It is a figure which shows the estimated value of the 1st photovoltaic power generation output by the photovoltaic power generation output estimation apparatus of Embodiment 4. It is a figure which shows a mode that the photovoltaic power generation output estimation apparatus 105 of Embodiment 5 estimates the photovoltaic power generation output of a plurality of consumers in order.

<A. Embodiment 1>
<A-1. Configuration>
FIG. 1 is a configuration diagram of the photovoltaic power generation output estimation system 11 of the first embodiment. The photovoltaic power generation output estimation system 11 has a configuration in which the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 and various facilities installed under a plurality of consumers are connected via a communication network 50. In FIG. 1, the solid line represents the flow of electric power, and the broken line represents the flow of information.

In FIG. 1, it is assumed that the first consumer C1, the second consumer C2, the third consumer C3, the fourth consumer C4, ... The mth consumer Cm, and the nth consumer Cn are a plurality of consumers. A load L1-Ln and a photovoltaic power generation facility PV1-PVn are installed in each of the first consumer C1-nth consumer Cn. The photovoltaic power generation equipment PV2-PVn installed in the second consumer C2-nth consumer Cn is a photovoltaic power generation facility subject to a surplus purchase contract, and these are also referred to as a first photovoltaic power generation facility. Further, the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1 installed in the first customer C1 is a photovoltaic power generation facility subject to a purchase contract in all quantities, and is also referred to as a second photovoltaic power generation facility. The photovoltaic power generation facility PV1 is installed within a predetermined distance from the photovoltaic power generation facility PV2-PVn. Here, the predetermined distance is not particularly limited, but is, for example, several km.

The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 utilizes the second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of the second photovoltaic power generation facility, at a predetermined time point of the first photovoltaic power generation facility (hereinafter, “estimated time point””. The first photovoltaic power generation output, which is the photovoltaic power generation output of (referred to as), is estimated. Estimated time points include not only current time points but also past or future time points. The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 may be realized by a general-purpose computer system such as a personal computer executing a program, or may be realized by a dedicated computer system. The detailed configuration of the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 will be described later.

The photovoltaic power generation facility PV1-PVn is, for example, a photovoltaic power generation facility installed on the roof of a building owned by a customer, and is not only a small-scale photovoltaic power generation facility but also a large-scale solar power generation facility such as a so-called mega solar. Includes solar power plants. The photovoltaic power generation facility PV1-PVn is connected to the electric power system 20, and supplies the generated electric power to the electric power system 20. Further, as shown in FIG. 1, a load L1-Ln is connected to the power system 20. The load L1-Ln receives power from the power system 20 and consumes power.

In this way, the actual power consumption of the load L1-Ln connected to the power system 20 and the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1-PVn connected to the power system 20 are viewed from the power system 20. The apparent power consumption of the load L1-Ln fluctuates. In the following, the apparent power consumption by the load L1-Ln of each consumer as seen from the power system 20 will be referred to as consumer power consumption.

A smart meter SM _ALL2- SM _ALLn is installed in the second-nth consumer C2-Cn. The smart meter SM _ALL2- SM _{ALLn measures} the consumer power consumption, which is the sum of the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV2-PVn, which is the first photovoltaic power generation facility, and the power consumption of the load L2-Ln for each consumer. To do. Here, "summed consumer power" smart meter _SM ALL2 _{-SM ALLN} is measured from the power consumption of the load L2-Ln, power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facilities PV2-PVn, respectively to each customer The amount deducted. Smart Meter _SM ALL2 _{-SM ALLN} is consumer power information measured via the communication network 50 and the communication network 25, is sent to the photovoltaic output estimation device 101.

For example, in the second consumer C2, the smart meter SM _ALL2 measures and records the total value of the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV2 and the power consumption of the load L2 as the consumer power consumption. Then, the information on the consumer power consumption of the second consumer C2 is _sent from the smart meter SM _ALL2 to the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 via the communication network 25 and the communication network 50. Such photovoltaic output estimation device 101 and the demand is a measure of the smart meter _SM ALL2 _{-SM ALLN} installed in consumer carrying the photovoltaic power generation facilities PV2-PVn a first photovoltaic power generation facilities Get home power consumption.

A smart meter SM _PV1 and a smart meter SM _L1 are installed in the first customer C1. The smart meter SM _PV1 measures and records the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1. The information on the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1 measured by the smart meter SM _PV1 is sent to the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 via the communication network 25 and the communication network 50. In this way, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 acquires the second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1 which is the second photovoltaic power generation facility.

Next, the detailed function of the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 will be described. FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing the functions of the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101. The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 is a device that estimates the first photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output at the time of estimation of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV2-PVn. As shown in FIG. 2, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 includes a first covariance acquisition unit 110, a second covariance acquisition unit 120, a power generation output estimation unit 130, and a storage unit 140.

The storage unit 140 is a memory that stores data for estimating the power generation output at the time of estimation of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV2-PVn. Specifically, the storage unit 140 stores location information data 141, second photovoltaic power generation output data 142, consumer power consumption data 143, and calculation data 144. The location information data 141 is data on location information such as the address or latitude / longitude of a customer who owns a photovoltaic power generation facility. The second photovoltaic power generation output data 142 is a measured value of the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1 by the smart meter SM _PV1 . Consumer power consumption data 143 is a measure of consumer power consumption by smart meter _SM ALL2 _{-SM ALLn.} The calculated data 144 is data calculated by the first covariance acquisition unit 110, the second covariance acquisition unit 120, and the power generation output estimation unit 130.

FIG. 3 is a diagram showing a hardware configuration of the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101. As shown in FIG. 3, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 includes a computer 1, an external storage device 5, an output device 7, and an input device 8. The computer 1 includes a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 2, a main storage device 3, and an auxiliary storage device 4. The external storage device 5 may be connected to the computer 1 via the network 6. The output device 7 displays or outputs the processing result of the computer 1. The input device 8 can be composed of a mouse, a keyboard, and the like. When the CPU 2 executes the program stored in the main storage device 3, each function of the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 is executed. That is, in the main storage device 3, the computer 1 is predetermined from the consumer power consumption, which is the apparent power consumption of the consumer in which the first photovoltaic power generation facility is installed, and the first photovoltaic power generation facility. Based on the storage unit 140 that stores the second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the photovoltaic power generation output of the second photovoltaic power generation facility, installed within a distance, and the second photovoltaic power generation output and consumer power consumption. , A photovoltaic power output estimation program for operating as a photovoltaic power output estimation unit 130 that estimates the first photovoltaic power output, which is the photovoltaic power output at a predetermined estimation time of the first photovoltaic power generation facility. Is stored.

The power generation output estimation unit 130 estimates the first photovoltaic power generation output by using the second photovoltaic power generation output and the consumer power consumption. The power output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1-PVn and the power consumption of the load L1-Ln include active power and ineffective power. However, since general photovoltaic power generation equipment, especially household photovoltaic power generation equipment, is operated at a constant power factor, it is possible to easily estimate the ineffective power by estimating the active power. Therefore, the power output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1-PVn and the power consumption of the load L1-Ln described below refer to the active power.

In the present embodiment, for the sake of simplification of the description, the photovoltaic power generation facility PV2 will be described below as a representative example of the first photovoltaic power generation facility. That is, the first photovoltaic power generation output is the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV2, and the consumer power consumption is the measured value of the smart meter SM _ALL2 in the second consumer C2. However, the following description also applies to the photovoltaic power generation facility PV3-Pvn.

The power generation output estimation unit 130 estimates the first photovoltaic power generation output by using the second photovoltaic power generation output and the consumer power consumption in a predetermined period. This predetermined period is preferably a period in which the installed capacity of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV2 is within a predetermined range from the installed capacity at the time of estimation. That is, the power generation output estimation unit 130 uses the second photovoltaic power generation output during a period in which the installed capacity of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV2 connected to the power system 20 is within a predetermined range from the installed capacity at the time of estimation. And the consumer power consumption are used to estimate the first photovoltaic power generation output. The predetermined period is a period before the estimation time point at which the first photovoltaic power generation output is estimated. For example, the predetermined period is a period that goes back about one or two weeks from the estimation time when the first photovoltaic power generation output is estimated, and specifically, the day before the day when the first photovoltaic power generation output is estimated. is there.

More specifically, the power generation output estimation unit 130 uses the time series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output and the time series data of the consumer power consumption in a short time within a predetermined period, and first Estimate the PV output. Here, the short time is, for example, a short period of about 30 minutes to 2 hours, preferably 1 hour. That is, the power generation output estimation unit 130 has the second photovoltaic power generation output and the second photovoltaic power generation output in a short time of about 30 minutes to 2 hours within a period of about 1 to 2 weeks back from the estimation time of estimating the first photovoltaic power generation output. The first photovoltaic power generation output is estimated using the time series data of consumer power consumption. In addition, this short time corresponds to the following first period.

The power generation output estimation unit 130 uses the first covariance and the second covariance acquired by the first covariance acquisition unit 110 and the second covariance acquisition unit 120 described below to generate the first photovoltaic power generation output. To estimate.

The first covariance acquisition unit 110 acquires the first covariance, which is the covariance of the time series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output and the consumer power consumption. Specifically, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 acquires the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output and the time-series data of the consumer power consumption in the first period, and the time-series of the second photovoltaic power generation output. The covariance between the data and the time-series data of consumer power consumption is calculated as the first covariance.

For example, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 acquires the time series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output in the first period by referring to the second photovoltaic power generation output data 142. By the way, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 is located within a predetermined distance from the photovoltaic power generation facility PV2 by using the location information data 141 of the storage unit 140, and is the target of the purchase contract for all the solar power generation. Select the second photovoltaic power generation facility from the photovoltaic power generation facilities.

That is, the smart meter SM _PV1 of the first consumer C1 is connected to the first covariance acquisition unit 110 and the storage unit 140. Then, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 stores the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1 read from the smart meter SM _PV1 in the second photovoltaic power generation output data 142 of the storage unit 140 at any time. Then, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 acquires the time series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output in the first period by reading it from the second photovoltaic power generation output data 142.

The time interval in which the first covariance acquisition unit 110 reads the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1 and stores it in the second photovoltaic power generation output data 142 is, for example, 1 second, 10 seconds, 1 minute, 30 minutes, or 1 hour. However, it is not particularly limited to these, and an appropriate numerical value is determined by the user. Further, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 may read the second photovoltaic power generation output at a timing arbitrarily determined by the user instead of at a fixed time interval. Further, the timing of storing the second photovoltaic power generation output read by the first covariance acquisition unit 110 in the second photovoltaic power generation output data 142 is also not particularly limited. Each time the first covariance acquisition unit 110 reads the second photovoltaic power generation output, it may be stored, or it may be stored at a timing arbitrarily determined by the user.

The time-series data of the consumer power consumption is stored in the consumer power consumption data 143 of the storage unit 140. The first covariance acquisition unit 110 acquires the time-series data of the consumer power consumption in the first period by referring to the consumer power consumption data 143. Then, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 calculates the first covariance, which is the covariance between the time series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output and the time series data of the consumer power consumption in the first period.

Here, the first period is a period corresponding to the above-mentioned short time, and for example, as described above, 30 minutes to 2 within a period of about 1 to 2 weeks from the estimation time of estimating the first photovoltaic power generation output. It is a period of about time. Further, the first period is preferably a period in which the solar radiation intensity is strong and the fluctuation of the solar radiation intensity is large. Further, in general, the load tends to decrease temporarily between 12:00 and 13:00, so that the first period is more preferably a period excluding 12:00 and 13:00. As described above, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 calculates the first covariance with the period in which the solar radiation intensity is strong and the fluctuation in the solar radiation intensity is large as the first period. Then, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 stores the calculated first covariance by writing it in the calculated data 144 of the storage unit 140.

The second covariance acquisition unit 120 performs autocovariance between the data group of the first period and the data group of the second period deviated by the delay time from the first period in the time series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output. Calculated as the second covariance.

For example, the time series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output in the first period and the second period is stored in the second photovoltaic power generation output data 142 of the storage unit 140. The second covariance acquisition unit 120 acquires the time series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output in the first period and the second period by referring to the second photovoltaic power generation output data 142. Then, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 calculates the second covariance, which is the autocovariance of the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output in the acquired two periods. When the delay time is zero, the first period and the second period are the same period, so that the second covariance acquisition unit 120 is the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output in the first period. The variance is calculated as the second covariance. By the way, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 is located within a predetermined distance from the photovoltaic power generation facility PV2 by using the location information data 141 of the storage unit 140, and is the target of the total purchase contract. Select the second photovoltaic power generation facility from the photovoltaic power generation facilities.

The delay time with respect to the first period of the second period is the time during which the solar radiation fluctuation propagates between the installation point of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1 and the installation point of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV2, that is, the solar radiation fluctuation moves. Specifically, it is the period until the clouds existing on the installation point of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1 reach the installation point of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV2. In the second covariance acquisition unit 120, for example, the covariance of the time series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output in the first period and the time series data of the consumer power consumption having a time lag with respect to the time series data is obtained. , The time lag when taking the minimum value can be acquired as the delay time. Here, the predetermined period is preferably the same period as the above-mentioned first period. Alternatively, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 can acquire the delay time by referring to the meteorological data or the like. Then, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 stores the calculated second covariance by writing it in the calculated data 144 of the storage unit 140.

The power generation output estimation unit 130 reads out the first covariance acquired by the first covariance acquisition unit 110 and the second covariance acquired by the second covariance acquisition unit 120 from the calculated data 144, and performs the first photovoltaic power generation. Estimate the output. Specifically, the power generation output estimation unit 130 multiplies the first coefficient obtained by using the first covariance and the second covariance by the second photovoltaic power generation output at a time when the delay time deviates from the estimation time. Then, the first photovoltaic power generation output is calculated.

Here, the first coefficient is a value obtained by dividing the first covariance by the second covariance and multiplying by -1. That is, the power generation output estimation unit 130 calculates the first photovoltaic power generation output by dividing the first covariance by the second covariance and multiplying by -1 as the first coefficient. Although the first coefficient does not change easily in a short period of time, the delay time tends to change in a short period of time due to a change in the wind direction or speed. Therefore, it is preferable that the delay time when estimating the first photovoltaic power generation output is changed in real time in consideration of meteorological data and the like. Then, the power generation output estimation unit 130 stores the calculated first photovoltaic power generation output by writing it in the calculated data 144 of the storage unit 140.

<A-2. Operation>
FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing an example of the estimation processing of the first photovoltaic power generation output by the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101. Hereinafter, a process in which the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 estimates the first photovoltaic power generation output will be described along the flow of FIG. First, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 acquires the first covariance, which is the covariance of the time series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output and the time series data of the consumer power consumption (step S101). Specifically, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 acquires the first covariance by calculating the first covariance, and writes the acquired first covariance in the calculated data 144 of the storage unit 140. A detailed description of the process by which the first covariance acquisition unit 110 acquires the first covariance will be described later.

Then, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 acquires the second covariance, which is the autocovariance of the time-series data of the two second photovoltaic power generation outputs whose delay times are staggered (step S102). Specifically, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 acquires the second covariance by calculating the second covariance, and writes the acquired second covariance in the calculated data 144 of the storage unit 140. A detailed description of the process by which the second covariance acquisition unit 120 acquires the second covariance will be described later.

Then, the power generation output estimation unit 130 uses the second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1 installed within a predetermined distance from the photovoltaic power generation facility PV2, and the consumer power consumption. The first photovoltaic power generation output is estimated (step S103). Specifically, the power generation output estimation unit 130 reads out the first covariance acquired by the first covariance acquisition unit 110 and the second covariance acquired by the second covariance acquisition unit 120 from the calculation data 144. It is estimated by calculating the first solar power output using the first covariance and the second covariance. A detailed description of the process by which the power generation output estimation unit 130 estimates the first photovoltaic power generation output will be described later. As described above, the process of estimating the first photovoltaic power generation output by the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 is completed.

FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing an example of the acquisition process of the first covariance by the first covariance acquisition unit 110. Hereinafter, the process in which the first covariance acquisition unit 110 acquires the first covariance (step S101 in FIG. 4) will be described in detail along the flow of FIG. First, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 acquires time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output (step S201). Specifically, the time series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output measured by the smart meter SM _PV1 is stored in the second photovoltaic power generation output data 142 of the storage unit 140. The first covariance acquisition unit 110 acquires by reading the time series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output from the second photovoltaic power generation output data 142.

In step S201, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 may acquire an estimated value instead of an actually measured value of the time series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output. In this case, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 estimates the second photovoltaic power generation output by using, for example, the method of the present embodiment or another method, and stores it in the second photovoltaic power generation output data 142. Then, the estimated value of the time series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output can be acquired. Alternatively, it is decided that the measured value or the estimated value of the time series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output is stored in the second photovoltaic power generation output data 142 by the input of the user, and the first covariance acquisition unit 110 acquires the data. You may.

More specifically, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 is in the period before the estimation time when the first photovoltaic power generation output is estimated, and the installed capacity of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV2 is based on the installed capacity at the time of estimation. Acquire time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output during a period within a predetermined range. Regarding the period during which the installed capacity of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV2 is within a predetermined range from the installed capacity at the time of estimation, for example, the period during which the installed capacity is within ± about 5% of the installed capacity at the time of estimation, etc. , Determined by the user as appropriate.

The period of the time series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output acquired by the first covariance acquisition unit 110 may be input in advance to the first covariance acquisition unit 110, or may be appropriately changed by the user. Alternatively, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 may calculate and determine. In the present embodiment, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 sets the period as, for example, the day before the day when the first photovoltaic power generation output is estimated, and acquires the time series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output on the previous day. ..

Returning to FIG. 5, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 searches for the first period (step S202). Specifically, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 refers to the acquired time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output, and searches for a period in which the solar radiation intensity is strong and the fluctuation of the solar radiation intensity is large. For example, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 takes about 30 minutes to 2 hours on the day before the day when the first photovoltaic power generation output is estimated, when the second photovoltaic power generation output is large and the fluctuation of the second photovoltaic power generation output is large. Explore a short period of time. Then, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 determines the searched period as the first period. It is preferable that the first period does not include 12:00 to 13:00. The first covariance acquisition unit 110 does not search for the first period from the above period (for example, the day before the day when the first photovoltaic power generation output is estimated), but searches for the above period itself. Then, the first period may be searched from the period.

Then, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 acquires the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output in the first period and the time-series data of the active power of the consumer power consumption (step S203). Specifically, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 obtains time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output in the first period from the second photovoltaic power generation output data 142, and first from the consumer power consumption data 143. It is acquired by reading out the time-series data of consumer power consumption during the period.

Then, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 calculates the covariance of the time series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output and the time series data of the consumer power consumption as the first covariance (step S204). Then, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 writes the calculated first covariance in the calculated data 144. As described above, the process of the first covariance acquisition unit 110 acquiring the first covariance (step S101 in FIG. 4) is completed.

FIG. 6 is a flowchart showing an example of the acquisition process of the second covariance by the second covariance acquisition unit 120. Hereinafter, the process in which the second covariance acquisition unit 120 acquires the second covariance (step S102 in FIG. 4) will be described in detail along the flow of FIG.

First, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 acquires the delay time between the installation point of the second photovoltaic power generation facility PV1 and the installation point of the first photovoltaic power generation facility PV2 (step S301). Specifically, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 sets the delay time when the covariance function of the time series data between the second photovoltaic power generation output and the consumer power consumption in the first period takes the minimum value. Get as. Then, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 writes the acquired delay time in the calculation data 144. A specific description of the process by which the second covariance acquisition unit 120 acquires the delay time will be described later.

Then, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 acquires the time-series data of the two second photovoltaic power generation outputs whose delay times are different (step S302). That is, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 includes time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output in the first period and time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output in the second period whose delay time deviates from the first period. Is read from the second photovoltaic power generation output data 142 and acquired.

Then, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 calculates the second covariance, which is the autocovariance of the time-series data of the two second photovoltaic power generation outputs whose delay times are different (step S303). Specifically, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 performs autocovariance between the time series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output in the first period and the time series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output in the second period. Calculated as the second covariance. Then, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 writes the calculated second covariance in the calculation data 144. As described above, the process of the second covariance acquisition unit 120 acquiring the second covariance (step S102 in FIG. 4) is completed.

FIG. 7 is a flowchart showing an example of the estimation process of the first photovoltaic power generation output by the power generation output estimation unit 130. Hereinafter, the process of estimating the first photovoltaic power generation output by the power generation output estimation unit 130 (step S103 of FIG. 4) will be described in detail along the flow of FIG. 7.

First, the power generation output estimation unit 130 acquires the first covariance, the second covariance, and the delay time from the calculated data 144 (step S401).

Then, the power generation output estimation unit 130 calculates the first coefficient using the first covariance and the second covariance (step S402). Specifically, the power generation output estimation unit 130 calculates the first coefficient by dividing the first covariance by the second covariance and multiplying by -1.

Then, the power generation output estimation unit 130 calculates the first photovoltaic power generation output by multiplying the calculated first coefficient by the second photovoltaic power generation output at the time when the delay time deviates from the estimation time point (step S403). As described above, it is preferable that the delay time when calculating the first photovoltaic power generation output is changed in real time. Therefore, it is preferable that the power generation output estimation unit 130 calculates the first photovoltaic power generation output by using the delay time changed in real time in consideration of the weather data and the like. Then, the power generation output estimation unit 130 writes the calculated first photovoltaic power generation output in the calculation data 144. As described above, the process of estimating the first photovoltaic power generation output by the power generation output estimation unit 130 (step S103 in FIG. 4) is completed.

Next, a method in which the power generation output estimation unit 130 calculates the first photovoltaic power generation output will be specifically described. First, the customer power consumption of the second customer C2 _P 2 (t), power consumption _P L2 of the load L2 of the second customer C2 (t), a power generation output of the first photovoltaic power generation facilities PV2 first 1 _{Let the} photovoltaic power generation output be P _PV2 (t), and let the second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of the second photovoltaic power generation facility PV1, be P _PV1 (t). Then, the equation related to P ₂ (t) is established as in the following equation (1), and further, the equation related to P _PV2 (t) can be assumed as in the equation (2).

Here, α is a coefficient for converting the second photovoltaic power generation output into the first photovoltaic power generation output. ε ₁₂ (t) is a temporal disturbance. τ _s is the delay time, that is, the time during which the solar radiation fluctuation propagates between the installation point of the first photovoltaic power generation facility PV2 and the installation point of the second photovoltaic power generation facility PV1.

_The variation of _P L2 (t) and epsilon ₁₂ (t), _{respectively,} assuming no correlation with fluctuations of _{P PV1} (t), the above equation (1), in the formula (2), temporal Assuming that the steady state is established, the following equation (3) is derived from the above equations (1) and (2).

Here, Cov _t [] indicates a covariance function, and Cov _t [P _PV1 (t), P _PV1 (t + τ + τ _s )] in the above equation (3) is maximum when τ = −τ _s. Take a value. Accordingly, the covariance function _Cov t of the time series data of the second photovoltaic output and consumer consumption _{[P PV1 (t), P} 2 (t + τ)] is the minimum value (sign is "-" and the absolute value Is the maximum value), and the value obtained by multiplying the time lag by -1 is the delay time τ _s .

In this way, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 sets the delay time when the covariance function of the time series data between the second photovoltaic power generation output and the consumer power consumption in the first period takes the minimum value. Get as.

Further, by substituting τ = 0 into the above equation (3), the following equation (4) is obtained.

Then, by transforming the above equation (4) into the following equation (5), an estimated value of α can be obtained.

_{That, Cov t [P PV1 (t} ), P 2 (t)] , the first covariance is the covariance of the second photovoltaic output _{P PV1} (t) and the consumer power _P 2 (t) Is. Then, Cov _t [P _PV1 (t), P _PV1 (t + τ _s )] is the self of P _PV1 (t) and P _PV1 (t + τ _s ), which are two second photovoltaic power generation outputs with a delay time of τ _s. It is the second covariance, which is the covariance. Then, α is obtained by dividing the first covariance Cov _t [P _PV1 (t), P ₂ (t)] by the second covariance Cov _t [P _PV1 (t), P _PV1 (t + τ _s )]. It is multiplied by 1 and is the first coefficient.

Further, assuming that ε ₁₂ (t + τ) is minute and can be ignored, the following equation (6), which is an approximate equation for the first photovoltaic power generation output, can be obtained from the above equation (2).

As described above, the power generation output estimation unit 130 adds the delay time from the estimation time point t to the estimated value of the first coefficient α obtained by dividing the first covariance by the second covariance and multiplying by -1. By multiplying the second photovoltaic power generation output P _PV1 (t + τ _s ) at the time when the τ _s deviates, the estimated value of the first photovoltaic power generation output P _PV2 (t) can be calculated.

When the first period is set as one period, the power generation output estimation unit 130 uses the coefficient α estimated by the equation (5) as the first coefficient. However, when the first period is set as a plurality of periods, the power generation output estimation unit 130 estimates the coefficient α for each first period by the equation (5). That is, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 and the second covariance acquisition unit 120 calculate the plurality of first covariances and the plurality of second covariances for the plurality of first periods, respectively. Then, the power generation output estimation unit 130 estimates a plurality of coefficients α based on the plurality of first covariances and the plurality of second covariances. In this case, the power generation output estimation unit 130 adopts the representative values of the estimated plurality of coefficients α as the first coefficient, and estimates the first photovoltaic power generation output using the first coefficient. The representative value of the plurality of coefficients α is preferably the median value of the plurality of coefficients α, but may be a statistic such as an average value or a mode value. By performing such processing, it is possible to reduce the deterioration of the estimation accuracy of the first photovoltaic power generation output, which is caused by the influence of the coefficient α, which is rarely generated, that is, the coefficient α having a large estimation error.

<A-3. Effect>
Next, the verification results of the effects of the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 will be described with reference to FIGS. 8 to 10. In this verification, the solar power generation equipment of the customer who is the target of the total purchase contract of one house is the second solar power generation equipment, and the solar power generation equipment of the customer who is the target of the surplus purchase contract of one house is the first. It was a solar power generation facility. Then, by using the consumer power consumption of the consumer who owns the first photovoltaic power generation facility and the second photovoltaic power generation output which is the power generation output of the second photovoltaic power generation facility, the first photovoltaic power generation facility can be used. The first photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output, was estimated. In this verification example, in order to verify the accuracy, the first photovoltaic power generation output is also specially measured and treated as an actually measured value, and compared with the estimation result of the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101.

FIG. 8 shows an actually measured value of the first photovoltaic power generation output, and FIG. 9 shows an estimated value of the first photovoltaic power generation output by the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101. In these figures, the horizontal axis indicates the time. The vertical axis of FIG. 8 shows the measured value of the first photovoltaic power generation output (active power), and the vertical axis of FIG. 9 shows the estimated value of the first photovoltaic power generation output (active power).

FIG. 10 shows a histogram of the error with the error obtained by subtracting the measured value of the first photovoltaic power generation output from the estimated value of the first photovoltaic power generation output by the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101. The horizontal axis of FIG. 10 shows the error, and the vertical axis shows the frequency. In addition, Avg. Is the mean value of the error, SD is the standard deviation of the error, and RMSE is the root mean square error. From the results of FIG. 10, it was confirmed that the estimation accuracy of the first photovoltaic power generation output by the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 is very high.

As described above, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 of the first embodiment includes the consumer power consumption, which is the apparent power consumption of the consumer in which the first photovoltaic power generation facility is installed, and the first solar power generation. A storage unit 140 that stores the second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the photovoltaic power generation output of the second photovoltaic power generation facility, installed within a predetermined distance from the photovoltaic power generation facility, and the second photovoltaic power generation output. A photovoltaic power generation output estimation unit 130 that estimates the first photovoltaic power generation output, which is the photovoltaic power generation output at a predetermined estimation time point of the first photovoltaic power generation facility, based on the above and the consumer power consumption. Therefore, according to the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101, if there is at least one photovoltaic power generation facility capable of acquiring the photovoltaic power generation output, the photovoltaic power generation facility can be used as the second photovoltaic power generation facility to generate solar radiation. It is possible to individually estimate the PV output of other desired PV installations without installing a meter and a measuring instrument with high time resolution.

Further, according to the photovoltaic power generation output estimation method of the first embodiment, the consumer power consumption, which is the apparent power consumption of the consumer in which the first photovoltaic power generation facility is installed, and the first photovoltaic power generation facility The second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the photovoltaic power generation output of the second photovoltaic power generation facility installed within a predetermined distance, is stored, and based on the second photovoltaic power generation output and the consumer power consumption. , The first photovoltaic power generation output, which is the photovoltaic power generation output at a predetermined estimation time point of the first photovoltaic power generation facility, is estimated. Therefore, if there is at least one photovoltaic power generation facility that can acquire photovoltaic power generation output, by using the photovoltaic power generation facility as the second photovoltaic power generation facility, a solar radiation meter and a measuring instrument with high time resolution are installed. It is possible to individually estimate the photovoltaic power output of other desired photovoltaic power generation facilities without doing so.

<B. Embodiment 2>
<B-1. Configuration>
The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 102 of the second embodiment has the same configuration as the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 of the first embodiment, and the configuration is as shown in FIGS. 1 to 3.

In the first embodiment, the estimation of the first photovoltaic power generation output has been described by taking the photovoltaic power generation facility PV2 installed in the second consumer C2 as an example of the first photovoltaic power generation facility. The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 of the first embodiment estimates the first photovoltaic power generation output one by one for each consumer when a plurality of first photovoltaic power generation facilities are present over a plurality of consumers. .. On the other hand, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 102 of the second embodiment is the sum of the photovoltaic power generation outputs of all the first photovoltaic power generation facilities existing within a predetermined distance from the second photovoltaic power generation facility. Estimate the value.

In the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 102 of the second embodiment, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 uses the location information data 141 of the storage unit 140 within a predetermined distance from the second photovoltaic power generation facility PV1. Search for the first photovoltaic power generation facility that exists in. Then, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 obtains the consumer power consumption of all the consumers (hereinafter, simply referred to as “all consumers”) who own the searched first photovoltaic power generation facility from the consumer power consumption data 143. Get and add up these. Then, the power generation output estimation unit 130 performs the same processing as in the first embodiment using the total value of the second photovoltaic power generation output and the consumer power consumption of all the consumers, and all the consumers own the power generation output estimation unit 130. Estimate the total value of the photovoltaic power generation output of the first photovoltaic power generation facility.

<B-2. Effect>
Next, the verification results of the effects of the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 102 will be described with reference to FIGS. 11 to 13. In this verification, the solar power generation equipment of the customer who is the target of the total purchase contract of one house is the second solar power generation equipment, and the solar power generation equipment of the customer who is the target of the surplus purchase contract of about 500 houses is the first. 1 Solar power generation facility. Then, the new consumer power consumption, which is the sum of the consumer power consumption of all the consumers who own the first photovoltaic power generation facility, and the second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of the second photovoltaic power generation facility, are calculated. By using it, a new first photovoltaic power generation output was estimated by adding up the power generation outputs of all the first photovoltaic power generation facilities. In this verification example, in order to verify the accuracy, the total value of all the first photovoltaic power generation outputs is also specially measured and treated as an actually measured value, and compared with the estimation result of the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 102. ..

FIG. 11 shows an actually measured value of the first photovoltaic power generation output, and FIG. 12 shows an estimated value of the first photovoltaic power generation output by the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 102. In these figures, the horizontal axis indicates the time. The vertical axis of FIG. 11 shows the measured value of the first photovoltaic power generation output (active power), and the vertical axis of FIG. 12 shows the estimated value of the first photovoltaic power generation output (active power).

FIG. 13 shows a histogram of the error with the error obtained by subtracting the measured value of the first photovoltaic power generation output from the estimated value of the first photovoltaic power generation output by the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 102. The horizontal axis of FIG. 13 shows the error, and the vertical axis shows the frequency. In addition, Avg. Is the mean value of the error, SD is the standard deviation of the error, and RMSE is the root mean square error. From the result of FIG. 13, it was confirmed that the estimation accuracy of the first photovoltaic power generation output by the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 102 is very high.

As described above, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 102 of the second embodiment is a demand that is the apparent power consumption of a plurality of consumers in which a plurality of first photovoltaic power generation facilities are installed on a one-to-one basis. House power consumption and the second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the photovoltaic power generation output of at least one second photovoltaic power generation facility installed within a predetermined distance from the plurality of first photovoltaic power generation facilities. Based on the storage unit 140 to be stored, the second photovoltaic power generation output, and the total value of the consumer power consumption of each consumer, the photovoltaic power generation output at a predetermined estimated time point of each first photovoltaic power generation facility is used. It includes a power generation output estimation unit 130 that estimates the total value of a certain first photovoltaic power generation output. Therefore, according to the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 102, if there is at least one photovoltaic power generation facility capable of acquiring the photovoltaic power generation output, the photovoltaic power generation facility can be used as the second photovoltaic power generation facility to generate solar radiation. It is possible to estimate the total value of the photovoltaic power generation output of a plurality of other photovoltaic power generation facilities without installing a meter and a measuring instrument having high time resolution.

As described above, according to the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 of the first embodiment, the photovoltaic power generation output can be estimated individually for each customer, while the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 102 of the second embodiment. According to this, the photovoltaic power generation output can be estimated collectively for each of a plurality of consumers. Therefore, a manager of an electric power company or the like can freely select the particle size of the photovoltaic power generation equipment for estimating the photovoltaic power generation output by properly using the photovoltaic power generation output estimation devices 101 and 102.

<C. Embodiment 3>
<C-1. Configuration>
The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 103 of the third embodiment has the same configuration as the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 of the first embodiment, and the configuration is as shown in FIGS. 1 to 3. The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 103 of the third embodiment estimates the photovoltaic power generation output of the second embodiment in that the photovoltaic power generation output of the first photovoltaic power generation output is estimated by using the photovoltaic power generation output of a plurality of second photovoltaic power generation facilities. Unlike the device 102, it is the same as the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 102 in other respects. The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 103 aims to improve the estimation accuracy of the first photovoltaic power generation output by estimating the first photovoltaic power generation output using the power generation outputs of the plurality of second photovoltaic power generation facilities.

In the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 103, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 uses the location information data 141 of the storage unit 140 to generate photovoltaic power generation that exists within a predetermined distance from the first photovoltaic power generation facility. A plurality of facilities are extracted and used as a second photovoltaic power generation facility. Then, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 acquires the second photovoltaic power generation output for the plurality of second photovoltaic power generation facilities from the second photovoltaic power generation output data 142, and adds them up. Further, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 searches for the first photovoltaic power generation facility existing within a predetermined distance from the plurality of second photovoltaic power generation facilities. Then, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 acquires the consumer power consumption of all the consumers who own the searched first photovoltaic power generation facility from the consumer power consumption data 143, and adds up these.

The power generation output estimation unit 130 of the third embodiment includes the total value of the second photovoltaic power generation outputs of the plurality of second photovoltaic power generation facilities and the consumer consumption of the plurality of consumers in which the first photovoltaic power generation facility is installed. Using the total value of the electric power, the same processing as in the first embodiment is performed, and the total value of the first photovoltaic power generation outputs of the plurality of first photovoltaic power generation facilities is estimated.

<C-2. Effect>
Next, the verification results of the effects of the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 103 will be described with reference to FIGS. 14 to 16. In this verification, the solar power generation equipment of the customers who are the target of the total purchase contract of 7 houses is the second solar power generation equipment, and the solar power generation equipment of the customer who is the target of the surplus purchase contract of about 500 houses is the second. 1 Solar power generation facility. Then, a new second, which is the sum of the new consumer power consumption of all the consumers who own the first photovoltaic power generation facility and the power consumption of all the second photovoltaic power generation facilities. By using the photovoltaic power generation output, a new first photovoltaic power generation output was estimated by adding up the power generation outputs of all the first photovoltaic power generation facilities. In this verification example, in order to verify the accuracy, the total value of all the first photovoltaic power generation outputs is also specially measured and treated as an actually measured value, and compared with the estimation result of the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 103. ..

FIG. 14 shows an actually measured value of the first photovoltaic power generation output, and FIG. 15 shows an estimated value of the first photovoltaic power generation output by the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 103. In these figures, the horizontal axis indicates the time. The vertical axis of FIG. 14 shows the measured value of the first photovoltaic power generation output (active power), and the vertical axis of FIG. 15 shows the estimated value of the first photovoltaic power generation output (active power).

FIG. 16 shows a histogram of the error with the error obtained by subtracting the measured value of the first photovoltaic power generation output from the estimated value of the first photovoltaic power generation output by the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 103. The horizontal axis of FIG. 16 shows the error, and the vertical axis shows the frequency. In addition, Avg. Is the mean value of the error, SD is the standard deviation of the error, and RMSE is the root mean square error. From the results of FIG. 16, it was confirmed that the estimation accuracy of the first photovoltaic power generation output by the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 103 is extremely high.

In the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 103 of the third embodiment, there are a plurality of second photovoltaic power generation facilities, and the photovoltaic power generation output estimation unit 130 is the total value of the second photovoltaic power generation outputs of each second photovoltaic power generation facility. , The total value of the first photovoltaic power generation output at the time of estimation of each first photovoltaic power generation facility is estimated based on the total value of the consumer power consumption of each consumer. Therefore, the estimation accuracy of the total value of the first photovoltaic power generation output is improved.

<D. Embodiment 4>
<D-1. Configuration>
The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 104 of the fourth embodiment has the same configuration as the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 of the first embodiment, and the configuration is as shown in FIGS. 1 to 3. In the first embodiment, the delay time τ _s is defined in the equation (2) as the time for the solar radiation fluctuation to propagate between the installation point of the first photovoltaic power generation facility and the installation point of the second photovoltaic power generation facility. , Estimated by the second covariance acquisition unit 120. However, when the time resolution (sampling cycle) of either the time series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output or the time series data of the consumer power consumption is low, the estimation accuracy of the delay time τ _s is lowered. Further, since the number of data samples that can be used for estimation is reduced, the calculation accuracy of the first covariance or the second covariance is lowered, and finally, the estimation accuracy of the first photovoltaic power generation output may be lowered. ..

Therefore, in the fourth embodiment, even if the time resolution of either the time series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output or the time series data of the consumer power consumption is low, the estimation accuracy of the first photovoltaic power generation output is lowered. The first embodiment is modified as follows for the purpose of preventing the failure.

First, the equation (2) used in the first embodiment is modified as the following equation (7), and the delay time τ _s is not defined. In other words, the delay time τ _s is always set to 0. That is, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 does not estimate the delay time τ _s .

In addition, the first period is a period of about 5 hours within a period of about 1 to 2 weeks from the estimation time of the first photovoltaic power generation output. Specifically, it is preferable that the period is 5 hours from 10:00 to 15:00 within a period of about 1 to 2 weeks from the estimation time of the first photovoltaic power generation output.

<D-2. Effect>
Next, the verification results of the effects of the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 104 will be described with reference to FIGS. 17 and 18. In this verification, the solar power generation equipment of the customer who is the target of the total purchase contract of one house is the second solar power generation equipment, and the solar power generation equipment of the customer who is the target of the surplus purchase contract of about 500 houses is the first. 1 Solar power generation facility. Then, by using the new consumer power consumption, which is the sum of the consumer power consumption of all the consumers who own the first photovoltaic power generation facility, and the second photovoltaic power generation output, all the first photovoltaic power generation facilities The new first photovoltaic power generation output was estimated by adding up the power generation outputs of. In this verification example, in order to verify the accuracy, the total value of all the first photovoltaic power generation outputs is also specially measured and treated as an actually measured value, and compared with the estimation result of the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 104. ..

FIG. 17 shows an actually measured value of the first photovoltaic power generation output, and FIG. 18 shows an estimated value of the first photovoltaic power generation output by the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 104. In these figures, the horizontal axis indicates the time. The vertical axis of FIG. 17 shows the measured value of the first photovoltaic power generation output (active power), and the vertical axis of FIG. 18 shows the estimated value of the first photovoltaic power generation output (active power). From these results, it was confirmed that the estimation accuracy of the first photovoltaic power generation output by the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 104 is extremely high.

<E. Embodiment 5>
<E-1. Configuration>
The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 105 of the fifth embodiment has the same configuration as the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 of the first embodiment, and the configuration is as shown in FIGS. 1 to 3. The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 of the first embodiment fixes one photovoltaic power generation facility subject to a total purchase contract as a second photovoltaic power generation facility, and the second photovoltaic power generation output of the second photovoltaic power generation facility. If there are a plurality of first photovoltaic power generation facilities, the output of the first photovoltaic power generation is estimated one for each customer. On the other hand, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 105 of the fifth embodiment uses the first photovoltaic power generation output of the first photovoltaic power generation facility estimated by the method of the first embodiment as a new second photovoltaic power generation output. As a result, it is used for estimating the first photovoltaic power generation output of another first photovoltaic power generation facility.

FIG. 19 shows how the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 105 of the fifth embodiment estimates the photovoltaic power generation output of a plurality of consumers in order. In FIG. 19, the numbers in parentheses in the arrows between consumers indicate the estimated order of photovoltaic output. The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 105 uses the location information data 141 of the storage unit 140 to determine the order of consumers who estimate the photovoltaic power generation output. Then, according to the order, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 105 estimates the first photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation equipment subject to the surplus purchase contract held by the consumer.

In the example of FIG. 19, first, in the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 105, the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1 owned by the first consumer C1 is used as the second photovoltaic power generation facility, and the photovoltaic power generation owned by the third consumer C3 is used. The facility PV3 will be the first photovoltaic power generation facility. That is, in the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 105, the third consumer C3 uses the second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1, and the consumer power consumption of the third consumer C3. The first photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of the owned photovoltaic power generation facility PV3, is estimated.

Next, in the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 105, the photovoltaic power generation facility PV3 owned by the third consumer C3, which is the target of the estimation above, is used as a new second photovoltaic power generation facility, and then the fourth consumer. The photovoltaic power generation facility PV4 of C4 is used as a new first photovoltaic power generation facility, and the first photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV4, is estimated. In other words, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation unit 130 of the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 105 transfers the first photovoltaic power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV3, which is the first photovoltaic power generation facility already estimated, to the second photovoltaic power generation facility. It is used as the photovoltaic power generation output to estimate the first photovoltaic power generation output of another first photovoltaic power generation facility.

That is, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 105 uses the second photovoltaic power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV3 owned by the third consumer C3 and the consumer power consumption of the fourth consumer C4 to be fourth. The first photovoltaic power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV4 owned by the consumer C4 is estimated. By performing such processing in order, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 105 estimates the power generation output of all the photovoltaic power generation facilities subject to the surplus purchase contract in order.

<E-2. Effect>
As described above, in the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 105 of the fifth embodiment, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation unit 130 uses the estimated first photovoltaic power generation output of the first photovoltaic power generation facility as the second photovoltaic power generation. It is used as the second photovoltaic power generation output of the facility to estimate the first photovoltaic power generation output of the other first photovoltaic power generation facility.

In the example of FIG. 19, only the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1 of the first customer C1 is subject to the purchase contract, and the photovoltaic power generation facility PVn subject to the surplus purchase contract is outside the predetermined distance from the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1. It shall be in. In such a case, the photovoltaic power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PVn cannot be estimated based on the photovoltaic power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1. However, even in such a case, according to the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 105, the original photovoltaic power generation output can be estimated in order from the photovoltaic power generation output of another consumer's photovoltaic power generation facility close to the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1. It is also possible to estimate the photovoltaic power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PVn located at a location away from the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1.

<F. Hardware configuration>
The configuration of each part in the above-mentioned photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101-105 is realized by a processing circuit. That is, the processing circuit 81 includes a configuration of each part in the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101-105. Dedicated hardware may be applied to the processing circuit, or a processor that executes a program stored in the memory may be applied. The processor is, for example, a central processing unit, a processing unit, an arithmetic unit, a microprocessor, a microcomputer, a DSP (Digital Signal Processor), or the like.

When the processing circuit is dedicated hardware, the processing circuit is, for example, a single circuit, a composite circuit, a programmed processor, a parallel programmed processor, an ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit), an FPGA (Field-Programmable Gate Array). ), Or a combination of these. Each of the functions of each part in the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101-105 may be realized by a plurality of processing circuits, or the functions of each part may be collectively realized by one processing circuit.

When the processing circuit is a processor, the functions of each part in the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101-105 are realized by a combination with software or the like (software, firmware or software and firmware). Software and the like are described as programs and stored in memory. The processor applied to the processing circuit realizes the functions of each part by reading and executing the program stored in the memory. Here, the memory includes, for example, non-volatile or non-volatile such as RAM (Random Access Memory), ROM (Read Only Memory), flash memory, EPROM (Erasable Programmable Read Only Memory), and EEPROM (Electrically Erasable Programmable Read Only Memory). Volatile semiconductor memory, HDD (Hard Disk Drive), magnetic disk, flexible disk, optical disk, compact disk, mini disk, DVD (Digital Versatile Disk) and its drive device, etc., or any storage medium used in the future. You may.

The configuration in which each function of the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101-105 is realized by either hardware or software has been described above. However, the present invention is not limited to this, and a configuration in which a part of the configuration is realized by dedicated hardware and another part of the configuration is realized by software or the like may be used. As described above, the processing circuit can realize each of the above-mentioned functions by hardware, software, or a combination thereof.

The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101-105 and the photovoltaic power generation output estimation system 11 have been described above. However, the present invention is not limited to each of the above embodiments. In the present invention, each embodiment can be freely combined, and each embodiment can be appropriately modified or omitted within the scope of the invention.

For example, in the above embodiment, the power generation output estimation unit 130 uses data in a period in which the installed capacity of the first photovoltaic power generation facility is within a predetermined range from the installed capacity at the time of estimation, and is used for the first solar power generation. I decided to estimate the photovoltaic power generation output. However, the power generation output estimation unit 130 may estimate the first photovoltaic power generation output without considering the period during which the installed capacity of the first photovoltaic power generation facility is within a predetermined range.

Further, in the above embodiment, the first photovoltaic power generation facility is a photovoltaic power generation facility subject to a surplus purchase contract. However, regardless of the purchase contract, the first photovoltaic power generation facility cannot directly measure the photovoltaic power generation output due to the fact that meters are not installed individually, and the solar power generation output is to be grasped and estimated. It may be a photovoltaic power generation facility.

Further, in the above embodiment, the second photovoltaic power generation facility is a photovoltaic power generation facility that is subject to a total purchase contract. However, the second photovoltaic power generation facility may be a photovoltaic power generation facility capable of directly measuring the photovoltaic power generation output regardless of the purchase contract. Further, the measured value or the estimated value of the solar radiation intensity may be used for the second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the photovoltaic power generation output of the second photovoltaic power generation facility.

1 computer, 2 CPU, 3 main memory, 4 auxiliary memory, 5 external storage, 6 network, 7 output, 8 input, 11 photovoltaic output estimation system, 20 power system, 25 communication network, 50 communication Network, 101-105 PV output estimation device, 110 1st photovoltaic power generation acquisition unit, 120 2nd photovoltaic power generation output unit, 130 power generation output estimation unit, 140 storage unit, 141 location information data, 142 2nd photovoltaic power generation output Data, 143 consumer power consumption data, 144 calculated data, PV1-PVn photovoltaic power generation equipment, L1-Ln load.

Claims (17)

The consumer power consumption, which is the apparent power consumption of the consumer in which the first photovoltaic power generation facility is installed, and the second photovoltaic power generation installed within a predetermined distance from the first photovoltaic power generation facility. A storage unit that stores the second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the photovoltaic power generation output of the equipment,
Power generation output estimation that estimates the first photovoltaic power generation output, which is the photovoltaic power generation output at a predetermined estimation time point of the first photovoltaic power generation facility, based on the second photovoltaic power generation output and the consumer power consumption. With a department,
Photovoltaic power generation output estimation device. The storage unit stores the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output and the time-series data of the consumer power consumption.
The power generation output estimation unit estimates the first photovoltaic power generation output based on the time series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output and the time series data of the consumer power consumption.
The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to claim 1. The power generation output estimation unit is based on the time series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output and the time series data of the consumer power consumption in at least one first period before the estimation time point, and the first solar power generation unit. Estimate photovoltaic output,
The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to claim 2. The first period is a period in which the difference between the installed capacity of the first photovoltaic power generation facility and the installed capacity of the first photovoltaic power generation facility at the time of estimation is within a predetermined range.
The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to claim 3. The first covariance acquisition unit that calculates the first covariance, which is the covariance between the time series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output and the time series data of the consumer power consumption in the first period,
Of the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output, the second covariance, which is the self-covariance between the data group of the first period and the data group of the second period deviated by the delay time from the first period, is Further equipped with a second covariance acquisition unit for calculation,
The power generation output estimation unit estimates the first photovoltaic power generation output by using the first covariance, the second covariance, and the second photovoltaic power generation output.
The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to claim 3 or 4. The power generation output estimation unit uses a coefficient obtained based on the first covariance and the second covariance as the first coefficient, and the second coefficient at a time when the delay time deviates from the first coefficient. The first photovoltaic power generation output is estimated by multiplying the photovoltaic power generation output.
The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to claim 5. The first coefficient is a value obtained by dividing the first covariance by the second covariance and multiplying by -1.
The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to claim 6. The first period is plural,
Based on the plurality of the first periods, the first covariance acquisition unit and the second covariance acquisition unit calculate the plurality of the first covariance and the plurality of the second covariance, respectively.
The power generation output estimation unit uses a representative value of a plurality of the coefficients obtained based on the plurality of the first covariance and the plurality of the second covariance as the first coefficient.
The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to claim 6 or 7. The delay time is the time for the solar radiation fluctuation to propagate between the installation point of the first photovoltaic power generation facility and the installation point of the second photovoltaic power generation facility.
The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to any one of claims 5 to 8. The second covariance acquisition unit has a time lag between the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output in the first period and the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output of the consumer power consumption. The delay time is defined as the time lag when the covariance with the time series data takes the minimum value.
The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to any one of claims 5 to 9. The delay time is 0,
The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to any one of claims 5 to 8. The first photovoltaic power generation facility is a photovoltaic power generation facility subject to a surplus purchase contract.
The second photovoltaic power generation facility is a photovoltaic power generation facility subject to a purchase contract for all quantities.
The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to any one of claims 1 to 11. The power generation output estimation unit uses the estimated first photovoltaic power generation output of the first photovoltaic power generation facility as the second photovoltaic power generation output of the second photovoltaic power generation facility, and uses the estimated first photovoltaic power generation output as the second photovoltaic power generation output of the second photovoltaic power generation facility. Estimating the first photovoltaic power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility,
The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to any one of claims 1 to 11. The consumer power consumption, which is the apparent power consumption of a plurality of consumers in which a plurality of first photovoltaic power generation facilities are installed on a one-to-one basis, and within a predetermined distance from the plurality of the first photovoltaic power generation facilities. A storage unit that stores the second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the photovoltaic power generation output of at least one second photovoltaic power generation facility, installed in
A first photovoltaic power generation output at a predetermined estimated time point of each of the first photovoltaic power generation facilities based on the total value of the second photovoltaic power generation output and the consumer power consumption of each consumer. It is equipped with a power generation output estimation unit that estimates the total value of photovoltaic power generation output.
Photovoltaic power generation output estimation device. There are a plurality of the second photovoltaic power generation facilities,
The power generation output estimation unit is based on the total value of the second solar power generation output of each of the second solar power generation facilities and the total value of the consumer power consumption of each of the consumers, and each of the first solar power generation units. Estimate the total value of the first photovoltaic power generation output at the time of the estimation of the photovoltaic power generation facility.
The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to claim 14. The consumer power consumption, which is the apparent power consumption of the consumer in which the first photovoltaic power generation facility is installed, and the second photovoltaic power generation installed within a predetermined distance from the first photovoltaic power generation facility. Memorize the second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the photovoltaic power generation output of the equipment,
Based on the second photovoltaic power generation output and the consumer power consumption, the first photovoltaic power generation output, which is the photovoltaic power generation output at a predetermined estimation time point of the first photovoltaic power generation facility, is estimated.
Photovoltaic power output estimation method. Computer,
The consumer power consumption, which is the apparent power consumption of the consumer in which the first photovoltaic power generation facility is installed, and the second photovoltaic power generation installed within a predetermined distance from the first photovoltaic power generation facility. A storage unit that stores the second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the photovoltaic power generation output of the equipment,
Power generation output estimation that estimates the first photovoltaic power generation output, which is the photovoltaic power generation output at a predetermined estimation time point of the first photovoltaic power generation facility, based on the second photovoltaic power generation output and the consumer power consumption. To operate with the part,
Photovoltaic power generation output estimation program.