JP2019114159A - Apparatus for planning operation of power-generating plant and method of planning operation - Google Patents

Abstract

To provide an apparatus for planning an operation of a power-generating plant which reliably achieves an object of an evaluation class for a power-generating business operator and also pursues economical efficiency.SOLUTION: An operation planning apparatus according to the present invention has a target regulation value acquiring unit for acquiring a target regulation value which is a target value of a regulation parameter for COdischarge which can achieve a target evaluation class in a business operator evaluation standard for use in classifying a power-generating operator in response to progress of their power-saving activities, a unit power selling profit predicting unit for predicting a unit power selling profit per electricity unit generated by a fossil-fuel based power plant for each unit period, and a power amount planning unit for determining a power generating amount for each unit period generated by a fossil-fuel based power plant in an evaluation period so that, based on the target regulation value and the unit power selling profit for each unit period, the evaluation value of the regulation parameters for the evaluation period calculated after the evaluation period should not exceed the target regulation value.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

  The present disclosure relates to an apparatus and method for planning the amount of power generation in a unit period of a power generation plant including a fossil power generation plant using fossil fuel for a predetermined evaluation period.

Regarding the rationalization of energy use in factories etc. which have been discussed recently by the Energy Conservation Subcommittee of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, regulations (penalty) such as disclosure of business name and suspension of business and environmental added value by business commendation and green power certificate Examinations are being carried out in conjunction with support (bonus) such as securitization. For example, the operator classification evaluation system (S, A, B, C) based on the law on the rationalization of use of energy etc. (measures related to factories etc.) has already been started, and each company , CO ₂ ) is classified into each evaluation class for each evaluation period through the calculation of evaluation indicators such as the emission coefficient (actual emission coefficient) for each company. Then, the top providers (S-class) will be announced and praised according to the type of industry, while stagnant companies (below B-class) will be subject to a more rigorous survey. As described above, the power producers are required to conduct business operation based on the evaluation by the operator classification evaluation system. In addition, the evaluation system which can perform not only economic evaluation of a power generation system but environmental load evaluation is proposed conventionally (for example, patent document 1).

JP, 2006-4080, A

However, for a power producer using fossil fuels, although increasing the amount of power generation can be expected to increase the profit from electricity sales, CO ₂ will always be generated by the power generation using fossil fuels. The amount of CO ₂ emissions also increases according to the amount of power generation. In addition, it is difficult for a power producer to decide how much energy saving should be prioritized, as operating a power generation plant with energy saving priority may lead to a decrease in profit from selling electricity. Under such circumstances, the present inventors can estimate the degree of energy saving priority more easily from the evaluation class to be aimed at and the calculation result at that time by estimating the power sale profit in each evaluation class. I thought. Furthermore, according to the target evaluation class such as S class and A class without being penalized, for example, a system that formulates an optimal operation plan according to the market value of the power price and CO ₂ reduction effect at each time If so, while aiming to ensure achievement of the target evaluation class, we could pursue economics and thought that we could contribute to optimal business management.

  In view of the above-described circumstances, at least one embodiment of the present invention is an operation plan drafting device for a power plant that drafts an operation plan that also pursues economics while ensuring the achievement of the goal of the evaluation class for the power producer. Intended to provide.

(1) An operation plan planning device of a power plant according to at least one embodiment of the present invention,
What is claimed is: 1. An operation plan drafting device for a power plant, wherein an individual power generation amount for each unit period of a power generation plant including a fossil power generation plant that generates fossil fuel is drafted over an evaluation period configured of a plurality of the unit periods.
Target regulatory value acquisition to obtain target regulatory value, which is the target value of the regulatory parameter related to CO ₂ emissions, capable of achieving the target evaluation class in the enterprise evaluation standard for classifying power generation companies according to the status of energy saving efforts Department,
A unit power sales profit forecasting unit that predicts a unit power sales profit per unit amount of electricity generated by the fossil power generation plant for each unit period;
The evaluation value of the regulation parameter for the evaluation period calculated after the evaluation period does not exceed the target regulation value, calculated based on the target regulation value and the unit power selling profit for each unit period. And a power generation amount planning unit configured to determine the individual power generation amount of the fossil power generation plant in the evaluation period.

For example, in the employer classification evaluation system based on the Act on the rationalization of the use of energy, etc. in recent years, which has been started by the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, each power producer emits emissions from fossil fuel-based power generation. class as one has been CO ₂ amount metrics actual emission factor of CO ₂ was calculated by dividing the electric power sold (actual carbon footprint), S, a, B, in each evaluation class C It is divided.

According to the configuration of the above (1), the target regulation value of the regulatory parameter such as the CO ₂ emission coefficient and the evaluation period which can achieve the target evaluation class in the enterprise evaluation standard such as the above-mentioned enterprise classification evaluation system Based on the prediction result of the unit selling profit in each of the plurality of unit periods, the sum of the selling profits obtained in the evaluation period (total selling profit) is maximized while achieving the target regulation value. Thus, the amount of power generation (individual power generation amount) in each of the plurality of unit periods is determined. As a result, while ensuring the achievement of the target evaluation class, the operation plan of the power plant that pursues also the economics in the target evaluation class, such as maximizing the total power generation profit obtained in the evaluation period, etc. You can plan.

(2) In some embodiments, in the configuration of (1) above,
The past record database which associates and stores a fuel unit price result, which is a past purchase price per unit amount of fossil fuel, and a power sale unit price result, which is a past electricity sale price per unit power generation amount,
The unit selling profit forecasting unit
A fuel unit price prediction unit that acquires a fuel unit price prediction for each unit period in the evaluation period based on the fuel unit price results stored in the past performance database;
A power sale unit price prediction unit that acquires a power sale unit price forecast for each unit period in the evaluation period based on the fuel unit price results stored in the past performance database;
And a profit calculating unit that calculates the amount of fuel required to generate the unit power generation amount, and calculates the unit sales profit based on the fuel amount, the fuel unit price prediction, and the unit sales power forecast. .

  According to the configuration of the above (2), the fuel unit price for each unit period is predicted (the fuel unit price forecast is acquired) based on the fuel unit price results of the past results database, and this fuel unit price forecast and the fuel unit price of the past results database Based on the comparison with the actual results, for example, the power sale unit price is predicted based on the power sale unit price results obtained through, for example, extracting the power sale unit price results that are associated with the fuel unit price results that match the fuel unit price forecast. Calculate the unit price forecast). Then, based on the amount of fuel required to generate the unit power generation and the fuel unit price forecast, the fuel cost required to generate the unit power generation is calculated, and the unit based on the fuel cost and the unit price forecast Calculate the power sale profit. By this, it is possible to predict unit selling profit based on the past results.

(3) In some embodiments, in the configurations of (1) to (2) above,
The target regulation value is a target emission coefficient which is a target value of the CO ₂ emission coefficient which is the regulation parameter,
It further comprises a fossil total power generation acquisition unit that acquires a total fossil power generation amount capable of achieving the target emission coefficient in the evaluation period, which is a total of the power generation amount generated by the fossil power generation plant in the evaluation period,
The power generation amount planning unit determines the individual power generation amount based on the total fossil power generation amount and the unit sales profit for each unit period.

According to the configuration of the above (3), the evaluation value (actual emission coefficient) of the CO ₂ emission coefficient calculated after the elapsing of the evaluation period achieves the target value (target emission coefficient) of the CO ₂ emission coefficient which is a control parameter. Calculation of the total power generation amount (fossil total power generation amount) by the fossil power generation plant, and distributing the calculated total fossil power generation amount to a plurality of unit periods so that the total sales profit in the evaluation period is, for example, maximum. Thus, the above-mentioned individual power generation amount in the evaluation period is determined. In this way, it is possible to draw up an operation plan that pursues the economics such as maximizing the above-mentioned total selling profit while achieving the target evaluation class by satisfying the target emission factor.

(4) In some embodiments, in the configuration of (3) above,
The power plant is a re-energy power plant using renewable energy that is not considered to have emitted the CO ₂ , and further includes a re-energized power plant that generates power by a method other than fuel combustion,
The fossil total power generation acquisition unit
A total fossil power generation target amount acquiring unit which acquires a total fossil power generation target amount having a desired value which is a sum of the power generation amounts generated by the fossil power generation plant in the evaluation period;
A renewable energy generated total power generation amount acquiring unit for acquiring a regenerative energy generated total power generation amount which is a total power generation amount in the evaluation period by the regenerative energy normal power generation plant;
A target regulation achievement judging unit which judges whether the target emission coefficient can be achieved or not, based on the actual emission coefficient of the CO ₂ calculated based on the total fossil power generation target amount and the total electric energy generation amount;
And a fossil total power generation amount determination unit that determines the total fossil power generation target amount as the total fossil power generation amount when it is determined that the target emission factor can be achieved by the target regulation achievement determination unit.

Power generation using fossil fuels is said to emit CO ₂ according to the type of fuel (classification), while solar light, wind power, water power, geothermal heat, solar heat, heat from the atmosphere and other natural heat, biomass etc. Power generation using renewable energy is not considered to have emitted CO ₂ . And, generally, the power generation by this renewable energy is inferior to the thermal power generation using fossil fuels in view of the power supply capacity and the economy with respect to the power demand. However, regulation parameters, in the case of CO ₂ emission factor is the amount of unit electric power (e.g., kWh) CO ₂ emissions per (e.g. kg), the actual emission factor fossil fuels in the evaluation period by power plants and renewable energy in total generation of total due, so determined by dividing the total emissions of CO ₂ from fossil fuel dilution, total power generation from renewable without emission of CO ₂ is to reduce the calculation results of the actual emission factors Bring effects.

According to the configuration of the above (4), when the regulation parameter is the target value of the CO ₂ emission coefficient (target emission coefficient), the target is achieved by considering the dilution effect of the actual emission coefficient by the total electric energy production amount. Determine if emission factor is achieved. Specifically, the total amount of power generation without CO ₂ emissions (renewable total power generation amount) from the renewable energy generation plant (renewable power generation plant) that generates electricity using renewable energy excluding biomass, and the fossil power generation plant The total power generation amount with the target (planned) total power generation amount with the emission of CO ₂ (total fossil power generation target amount) divided by the total planned emission amount of CO ₂ emitted with the power generation of total fossil power generation amount Determine whether the actual emission factor is less than or equal to the target emission factor. Then, the total fossil power generation target amount when it is determined that the target emission factor can be achieved is the total fossil power generation amount. In this way, when designing an operation plan for each of a plurality of evaluation classes, it is possible to formulate an operation plan that also pursues economics in such an evaluation class while determining an achievable evaluation class.

(5) In some embodiments, in the configuration of (4) above,
The power generation plant further includes a biomass power generation plant which is the re-energy power generation plant and generates power using biomass fuel;
The fossil total power generation acquisition unit
When it is determined by the target regulation achievement judging unit that the achievement of the target emission factor is not possible, the total power generation amount which is the total power generation amount in the evaluation period by the biomass power generation plant, and the total fossil power generation target amount A biomass total power generation amount calculating unit configured to calculate the total power generation amount of biomass such that the target emission coefficient is achieved by the actual emission coefficient of the CO ₂ calculated based on the total energy generation amount and the renewable energy generation amount; In addition,
The total fossil power generation determination unit determines the total fossil power generation amount used for calculation of the total biomass power generation by the total biomass power generation calculation unit as the total fossil power generation amount.

  Power generation using renewable energy such as solar light and wind power is performed according to natural conditions such as uncontrollable weather conditions, and power generation is performed according to the situation, so it is difficult to control the amount of power generation. On the other hand, power generation using renewable energy by burning fuel such as biomass can be expected to generate power according to the amount of fuel used, so control of the amount of power generation is relatively easy.

According to the configuration of the above (5), when the power generation plant includes a fossil power generation plant and a reenergy generation plant including a reenergy existing power generation plant and a biomass power plant, CO ₂ calculated after the evaluation period has elapsed Calculate the total power generation amount (biomass total power generation amount) by the biomass power plant required for the evaluation value of the emission coefficient (actual emission coefficient) to achieve the target emission coefficient. In this way, when designing an operation plan for each of a plurality of evaluation classes, it is possible to formulate an operation plan that also pursues economics in such an evaluation class while determining an achievable evaluation class.

(6) In some embodiments, in the configurations of (1) to (2) above,
The target regulation value is a target total emission regulation amount which is a target value of the total emission regulation amount of CO ₂ which is the regulation parameter,
The second total power generation amount, which is a total power generation amount that can be generated by the fossil power generation plant in the evaluation period, is acquired based on the past actual emission coefficient of the fossil power generation plant and the target total emission control amount. Further equipped with a fossil total power generation acquisition unit,
The power generation amount planning unit determines the individual power generation amount based on the second total fossil power generation amount and the unit sales profit for each unit period.

According to the configuration of the above (6), the evaluation value of the total emission amount of CO ₂ calculated after the elapse of the evaluation period achieves the target value (target total emission restriction amount) of the total emission restriction amount of CO ₂ which is a control parameter. Calculation of the total power generation amount (second total fossil power generation amount) by the fossil power plant, and the calculated total fossil power generation amount to a plurality of unit periods so that the total sales profit in the evaluation period is, for example, maximum. Each of the above-described individual power generation amounts in the evaluation period is determined as distributed. In this way, it is possible to formulate an operation plan that pursues the target evaluation class by satisfying the target total emission control amount, and also pursues the economics such as maximizing the above-mentioned total selling profit.

(7) In some embodiments, in the configurations of (1) to (6) above,
The target regulation value acquiring unit determines a value smaller by a predetermined value or a predetermined ratio from the reference value in the target evaluation class based on the reference parameter of the regulation parameter and the safety parameter predetermined in the target evaluation class. Calculated as the target regulation value.

  Each of the plurality of evaluation classes described above is set in association with a predetermined range of restriction parameters. And, the maximum value of the control parameter in each evaluation class is the upper limit value of the control parameter for obtaining the evaluation of the evaluation class, and the maximum value of the control parameter in the evaluation class is the most economical. In addition, if the maximum value of each evaluation class is exceeded even a little, it will be rated as a worse evaluation class than that evaluation class. Therefore, in practice, it is desirable to set the target regulation value to a value smaller than the maximum value of the target evaluation class in order to reliably obtain the rating of the desired target evaluation class.

  According to the configuration of the above (7), the target regulation value is calculated based on the safety parameter that allows arbitrary setting by the user and the reference value such as the maximum value of the target evaluation class. This makes it possible to set the target regulation value to a value smaller than the target evaluation class's standard value, and ensure that the rating of the target evaluation class desired by the power producer is ensured even if an unexpected event occurs. An operational plan to be obtained can be made.

(8) A method of designing an operation plan of a power plant according to at least one embodiment of the present invention,
An operation plan drafting method of a power plant, wherein an individual power generation amount per unit period of a power plant including a fossil power plant that generates power using fossil fuel is drafted over an evaluation period configured of a plurality of the unit periods,
Target regulatory value acquisition to obtain target regulatory value, which is the target value of the regulatory parameter related to CO ₂ emissions, capable of achieving the target evaluation class in the enterprise evaluation standard for classifying power generation companies according to the status of energy saving efforts Step and
A unitary selling profit forecasting step of predicting, per unit period, a unit selling profit per unit amount of electricity generated by the fossil power generation plant;
The evaluation value of the regulation parameter for the evaluation period calculated after the evaluation period does not exceed the target regulation value, calculated based on the target regulation value and the unit power selling profit for each unit period. A power generation planning step of determining the individual power generation amount by the fossil power generation plant in the evaluation period.

  According to the configuration of the above (8), the same effect as the above (1) can be obtained.

(9) In some embodiments, in the configuration of (8) above,
The past record database which associates and stores a fuel unit price result, which is a past purchase price per unit amount of fossil fuel, and a power sale unit price result, which is a past electricity sale price per unit power generation amount,
The unit selling profit forecasting step is
A fuel unit price prediction step of acquiring a fuel unit price prediction for each unit period in the evaluation period, based on the fuel unit price results stored in the past performance database;
A power sale unit price prediction step of acquiring a power sale unit price forecast for each unit period in the evaluation period based on the fuel unit price results stored in the past performance database;
Calculating a fuel amount required to generate the unit power generation amount, and calculating a unit sales profit based on the fuel amount, the fuel unit price forecast, and the power sales unit price forecast; .

  According to the configuration of the above (9), the same effect as the above (2) can be obtained.

(10) In some embodiments, in the configurations of (8) to (9) above,
The target regulation value is a target emission coefficient which is a target value of the CO ₂ emission coefficient which is the regulation parameter,
A total fossil power generation amount acquiring step of acquiring a total fossil power generation amount capable of achieving the target emission coefficient in the evaluation period, which is a total of the power generation amount generated by the fossil power generation plant in the evaluation period,
In the power generation planning step, the individual power generation amount is determined based on the total fossil power generation amount and the unit sales profit for each unit period.
According to the structure of said (10), the same effect as said (3) is show | played.

(11) In some embodiments, in the configuration of (10),
The power plant is a re-energy power plant using renewable energy that is not considered to have emitted the CO ₂ , and further includes a re-energized power plant that generates power by a method other than fuel combustion,
The step of obtaining the total fossil power generation is
A total fossil power generation target amount acquiring step of acquiring a total fossil power generation target amount having a desired value which is a sum of the power generation amounts generated by the fossil power generation plant in the evaluation period;
A re-energy total power generation amount acquiring step of acquiring a re-energy total power generation amount which is a total power generation amount in the evaluation period by the re-energy normal power generation plant;
A target regulation achievement judging step of judging whether the target emission factor can be achieved or not based on the actual emission factor of the CO ₂ calculated based on the total fossil power generation target amount and the total electric power generation amount.
Determining the total fossil power generation target amount when it is determined that the target emission coefficient can be achieved by the target regulation achievement determination step, as the total fossil power generation amount.
According to the structure of said (11), the same effect as said (4) is show | played.

(12) In some embodiments, in the configuration of (11) above,
The power generation plant further includes a biomass power generation plant which is the re-energy power generation plant and generates power using biomass fuel;
The step of obtaining the total fossil power generation is
When it is determined in the target regulation achievement determination step that the achievement of the target emission factor is not possible, a total biomass power generation amount, which is a total power generation amount in the evaluation period by the biomass power plant, and the total fossil power generation target amount And a biomass total power generation amount calculating step of calculating the total biomass power generation amount so that the target emission coefficient is achieved by the actual emission coefficient of the CO ₂ calculated based on the re-energy running total power generation amount. , And further,
The total fossil power generation determination step determines, as the total fossil power generation amount, the total fossil power generation target amount used for calculation of the total biomass power generation amount in the total biomass power generation amount calculation step.
According to the structure of said (12), the same effect as said (5) is show | played.

(13) In some embodiments, in the configurations of (8) to (9) above,
The target regulation value is a target total emission regulation amount which is a target value of the total emission regulation amount of CO ₂ which is the regulation parameter,
The second total power generation amount, which is a total power generation amount that can be generated by the fossil power generation plant in the evaluation period, is acquired based on the past actual emission coefficient of the fossil power generation plant and the target total emission control amount. Further equipped with the fossil total power generation acquisition step,
The power generation amount planning step determines the individual power generation amount based on the second total fossil power generation amount and the unit sales profit for each unit period.
According to the structure of said (13), the same effect as said (6) is show | played.

(14) In some embodiments, in the configurations of (8) to (13) above,
In the target regulation value acquiring step, a value smaller by a predetermined value or a predetermined ratio than the reference value in the target evaluation class is determined based on the reference parameter of the regulation parameter and the safety parameter predetermined in the target evaluation class. Calculated as the target regulation value.
According to the structure of said (14), the same effect as said (7) is show | played.

  According to at least one embodiment of the present invention, a power plant operation plan planning device is provided that plans an operation plan that also pursues economics while ensuring the achievement of the target of the evaluation class for the power producer.

It is a figure showing roughly an input-and-output of an operation plan drafting device of a power plant concerning one embodiment of the present invention. It is a block diagram which shows the function of the driving | operation plan drafting apparatus of the power generation plant which concerns on one Embodiment of this invention, and drafts the driving | operation plan for every evaluation class. It is a block diagram which shows the function of the driving | operation plan drafting apparatus of the power generation plant which concerns on one Embodiment of this invention, and drafts the driving | operation plan of the target evaluation class designated by the user. It is a figure for demonstrating the relationship between the control parameter which concerns on one Embodiment of this invention, and each evaluation class. It is a figure for demonstrating the calculation logic of the biomass total electric power generation amount which concerns on one Embodiment of this invention. It is a flow figure showing the operation plan drafting method of the power plant concerning one embodiment of the present invention. It is a figure which shows the fossil total generated energy acquisition step (S3) which concerns on one Embodiment of this invention.

Hereinafter, some embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the accompanying drawings. However, the dimensions, materials, shapes, relative arrangements, etc. of the components described as the embodiments or shown in the drawings are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention to this, but are merely illustrative. Absent.
For example, a representation representing a relative or absolute arrangement such as “in a direction”, “along a direction”, “parallel”, “orthogonal”, “center”, “concentric” or “coaxial” is strictly Not only does it represent such an arrangement, but also represents a state of relative displacement with an angle or distance that allows the same function to be obtained.
For example, expressions that indicate that things such as "identical", "equal" and "homogeneous" are equal states not only represent strictly equal states, but also have tolerances or differences with which the same function can be obtained. It also represents the existing state.
For example, expressions representing shapes such as quadrilateral shapes and cylindrical shapes not only represent shapes such as rectangular shapes and cylindrical shapes in a geometrically strict sense, but also uneven portions and chamfers within the range where the same effect can be obtained. The shape including parts etc. shall also be expressed.
On the other hand, the expressions "comprising", "having", "having", "including" or "having" one component are not exclusive expressions excluding the presence of other components.

  FIG. 1: is a figure which shows roughly the input-output of the operation plan drafting apparatus 1 of the power generation plant 8 which concerns on one Embodiment of this invention. FIG. 2A is a block diagram showing the function of the operation plan drafting device 1 of the power plant according to one embodiment of the present invention, and an operation plan Op for each evaluation class C is drafted. FIG. 2B is a block diagram showing the function of the operation plan drafting device 1 of the power plant according to one embodiment of the present invention, which drafts an operation plan Op of a target evaluation class Ct specified by the user. Moreover, FIG. 3 is a figure for demonstrating the relationship between the control parameter R which concerns on one Embodiment of this invention, and each evaluation class C. As shown in FIG.

  The operation plan drafting device 1 of the power plant (hereinafter simply referred to as the operation plan drafting device 1) is a unit of the power plant 8 including a fossil power plant 81 (thermal power plant) that generates electricity using fossil fuels such as oil, coal and natural gas. It is an apparatus (system) which drafts the individual power generation amount for every period Tu over the evaluation period T comprised with several unit period Tu. The evaluation period T is an arbitrary period, such as year, month, day, time, etc., which is a target of calculation of evaluation, when the power generation business operators are classified into classes according to a business operator evaluation standard described later. Further, the unit period Tu is an arbitrary period shorter than the evaluation period T, and in the case where the evaluation period is a year unit, it is month, day, time, and the like.

  Further, as shown in FIG. 1, the operation plan drafting device 1 is an evaluation standard at the time of evaluating a power generation company, and is an evaluation class information defining a range of values of regulatory parameters R for each evaluation class C described later. Cr, an evaluation period T, a unit period Tu, a safety parameter S (described later), and the like are used as basic input information for drafting the operation plan Op. In the embodiment shown in FIG. 1, these pieces of input information are stored in advance in the storage device M (described later) as setting information. Then, the operation plan planning device 1 drafts the operation plan Op of the power generation plant 8 with reference to the past record database 7 (described later) under the above-described input information, and outputs the drafted operation plan Op.

  The operation plan Op is a plan of the power generation amount that defines the power generation amount (individual power generation amount) in each of the unit periods Tu arranged in time series in the evaluation period T, and is created, for example, before the evaluation period T starts. . In the embodiment illustrated in FIG. 1, the operation plan Op created by the operation plan planning device 1 is sent to the plant control device 81 c that controls the fossil power generation plant 81, so that the operation plan Op is performed under the control of the plant control device 81 c. The amount of generated power is generated by the fossil power generation plant 81. In addition, information obtained as an actual operation result (fuel unit price actual Br to be described later, electricity sales unit price actual Sr, etc.) is accumulated in the past actual result database 7 (described later), and the operation plan Op for the next evaluation period T is formulated. It is supposed to be used.

Then, as shown in FIG. 1, in order to draw up the above-described operation plan Op, the operation plan drafting device 1 generates a target regulation value acquisition unit 2, a unit selling profit forecasting unit 3, and a power generation amount planning unit 4. And. The operation plan planning device 1 is configured by a computer, and includes a CPU (processor) (not shown), a memory such as a ROM or a RAM, and an auxiliary storage device (storage device M). Then, the CPU operates (calculates data, etc.) in accordance with an instruction of a program (operation plan planning program) loaded to the main storage device, and draws up (calculates) an operation plan Op. The planned operation plan Op may be output on a screen or a sheet by a display device (a device having a display, a printer, etc.).
Hereinafter, the above-described functional units included in the operation planning device 1 will be described with reference to FIGS. 2A to 2B.

The target regulatory value acquisition unit 2 regulates emission of CO ₂ (carbon dioxide; the same applies hereinafter) which can achieve the target evaluation class Ct in the enterprise evaluation standard for classifying power generation companies according to the energy saving efforts. A target regulation value V which is a target value of the parameter R is acquired. The business operator evaluation standard is, for example, a business operator classification evaluation system based on a law (a measure pertaining to a factory etc.) on rationalization of use of energy etc. started by the Agency of Natural Resources and Energy in recent years. In the above-mentioned employer classification evaluation system, the actual emission factor of CO ₂ (hereinafter referred to as “CO ₂ emissions calculated by dividing the amount of CO ₂ emitted as a result of power generation by fossil fuel (actual carbon dioxide emissions) by the amount of electric power sold) As appropriate, it is simply referred to as the actual emission factor. Then, an evaluation index such as an actual emission coefficient of each power producer is calculated for each evaluation period T, and the S class is achieved according to the achievement status of the evaluation standard obtained through comparison of the calculated evaluation index and the evaluation standard. (A business that excels in energy saving), A class (a general business), B class (a business where energy saving is stagnating), or C class (a business that requires attention in B class) It is classified into evaluation class.

  The above target evaluation class Ct is one of the evaluation classes C such as S, A, B, C, etc. defined by the business operator evaluation standard. In some embodiments, the target evaluation class Ct may be an evaluation class C sequentially selected from the plurality of evaluation classes C described above. In this case, as shown in FIG. 2A, the operation plan Op is calculated for each of the evaluation classes C. In the embodiment shown in FIG. 2A, the user selects (selects a mode) one operation plan Op through a study of comparing a plurality of operation plans Op. In some other embodiments, as shown in FIG. 2B, the target evaluation class Ct may be any one evaluation class C selected by the user (mode selection) or the like.

The above-mentioned regulatory parameter R is an evaluation index for evaluating a power producer with respect to the emission of CO ₂ , and specifically, is a CO ₂ emission coefficient, a total CO ₂ emission control amount, and the like. In the embodiment shown in FIG. 3, the evaluation period T is one year, and the power producers classified into the S class have evaluation values such as the average of the actual values of the regulation parameter R in the evaluation period T less than R1. One of the requirements is that there is (S class: R ≦ R1). Similarly, a power producer classified into class A is required to have the above evaluation value greater than the R1 value and less than or equal to the R2 value (A class: R2 ≧ R> R1). Also, if the above evaluation value is larger than the R2 value, it is classified into the B or C class (B class or less: R> R2).

  Further, the target regulation value V described above is an arbitrary value of the regulation parameter R belonging to the target evaluation class Ct described above. Therefore, if the evaluation value of the regulation parameter R for the evaluation period T of the power generation company becomes equal to or less than the target regulation value V, the target evaluation class Ct is achieved. For example, in the embodiment shown in FIG. 3, as shown in FIG. 3, the larger the value of the regulation parameter R, the lower the evaluation of the energy saving approach situation, but the higher the economic efficiency. Therefore, in order to pursue the economics while achieving a certain target evaluation class Ct, evaluation is performed on the target evaluation class Ct within the range of the values of the regulation parameter R for achieving the target evaluation class Ct. The value of the boundary with the evaluation class C which is one step inferior (that is, the maximum value of the restriction parameter R in each evaluation class C) may be set as the target restriction value V. Specifically, in the case where each of the target evaluation class Ct is S class and A class, the target restriction value V becomes R1 value and R2 value, respectively.

  Therefore, in some embodiments, the target regulation value acquiring unit 2 sets the above-described boundary value as the target regulation value V based on the above-described evaluation class information Cr and the target evaluation class Ct. You may get V. In some other embodiments, the target restriction value acquisition unit 2 may acquire the value input from the user as the target restriction value V. However, if the boundary value (maximum value) as described above is used as the target control value V as it is, it may easily occur that the target evaluation class Ct can not be achieved when an unexpected event occurs. Therefore, in the embodiment shown in FIG. 1, the target regulation value is set using the safety parameter S for setting the target regulation value V to a value smaller than the aforementioned boundary value (maximum value) within the range of the target evaluation class Ct. I am trying to set V.

  Specifically, the target regulation value acquisition unit 2 acquires a safety parameter acquisition unit 21 that acquires the safety parameter S for calculating the target regulation value V, and a reference value of the regulation parameter R predetermined in the target evaluation class Ct. Target regulation value calculation that calculates a value smaller than the above reference value in the target evaluation class Ct by a predetermined value or a predetermined ratio as the target regulation value V based on the boundary value which is the maximum value described above and the safety parameter S And a part 22. In the embodiment shown in FIGS. 1 to 2B, the safety parameter S can be arbitrarily set by the user. Then, the target restriction value calculation unit 22 calculates the target restriction value V so as to be smaller than the above-described reference value as the value of the safety parameter S is larger. As a result, a value smaller than the reference value such as the maximum value of the target evaluation class Ct can be set as the target regulation value V, and even if an unexpected event occurs, the target evaluation desired by the power producer It is designed to create an operation plan Op that can obtain a rating of class Ct.

  The unit selling profit prediction unit 3 predicts the unit selling profit Pu per unit amount of electricity generated by the fossil power generation plant 81 for each unit period Tu. Here, the power sale profit is a profit obtained by selling the generated electricity, and from the power sale income obtained by selling a certain amount of power generation, the amount of fuel used to generate the amount of power generation It may be calculated by subtracting the fuel cost (power sale profit = power sales income-fuel cost). In general, the power sales revenue from electricity generated by the fossil power generation plant 81 fluctuates daily because the unit price (for example, yen / kWh) is determined by the relationship between supply and demand. Similarly, the fuel cost also fluctuates daily depending on the unit cost of fossil fuel per unit amount (fuel unit cost) and the amount of fuel used. For this reason, the profit per unit amount of electricity (unit selling profit Pu) also fluctuates with the change in the selling electricity unit price and the fuel unit price. Therefore, the unit selling profit forecasting unit 3 determines the unit selling profit Pu as a unit It predicts every period Tu. For example, as described later, the unit price of electricity sale or the unit price of fuel may be predicted, and the unit sales profit Pu may be calculated based on the predicted value.

  The power generation amount planning unit 4 evaluates the regulation parameter R for the evaluation period T calculated after the evaluation period T based on the target regulation value V and the unit sales profit Pu for each unit period Tu. The individual power generation amount by the fossil power generation plant 81 in the evaluation period T is determined so as not to exceed the target regulation value V. That is, the operation plan Op in the evaluation period T is formulated. For example, the operation plan Op may be formulated so as to maximize the total of the power selling profit (total power selling profit) obtained in the evaluation period T within the range not exceeding the target regulation value V. Specifically, based on the unit selling profit Pu of each unit period Tu predicted by the unit selling profit prediction unit 3, the amount of power generation in the unit period Tu in which the unit selling profit Pu is relatively small is reduced. If the amount of power generation in unit period Tu in which unit sales profit Pu is relatively high is increased, the same amount of power can be obtained over evaluation period T while unit sales profit Pu in each unit period Tu fluctuates. It can be expected that the total selling profit in the evaluation period T will be higher than the power generation.

  In the operation plan drafting device 1 having the above-described configuration, in the embodiment shown in FIGS. 2A to 2B, the power generation amount plan drafting unit 4 includes the target regulation value acquiring unit 2 and the unit power sale profit predicting unit 3 described above. Each is connected. Then, operation of the power generation plant 8 (fossil power generation plant 81) is performed according to the operation plan Op created by the operation plan planning device 1. At this time, in the embodiment shown in FIG. 2A, the power generation amount planning unit 4 sets a unit for each target evaluation class Ct which is an evaluation class C acquired in order from the plurality of evaluation classes C by the target regulation value acquisition unit 2. Based on the prediction result of the unit selling profit Pu by the selling profit prediction unit 3, the operation plan Op is formulated. In addition, operating the fossil power plant 81 with which operation plan Op (evaluation class C) by presenting to the user the result of the economic evaluation such as the total sales profit for each of the operation plans Op (for each evaluation class C) prepared The user is made to select whether to On the other hand, in the embodiment shown in FIG. 2B, the power generation plan planning unit 4 obtains the target evaluation class Ct selected by the user acquired by the target regulation value acquisition unit 2 and the unit sales income by the unit sales income prediction unit 3 The operation plan Op is designed based on the prediction result of Pu.

According to the above configuration, the target regulation value V of the regulatory parameter R such as the CO ₂ emission coefficient and the evaluation period T which can achieve the target evaluation class Ct in the enterprise evaluation standard such as the enterprise classification evaluation system mentioned above Based on the prediction result of unit selling profit Pu in each of the plurality of unit periods Tu constituting, for example, the total selling profit obtained in the evaluation period T is maximized while achieving the target regulation value V, for example. The amount of power generation (individual power generation amount) in each of the plurality of unit periods Tu is determined. As a result, while ensuring the achievement of the target evaluation class Ct, the power plant 8 which pursues also the economy in the target evaluation class Ct, such as maximizing the total power generation profit obtained in the evaluation period T An operation plan Op can be formulated.

Next, some embodiments of the unit selling profit prediction unit 3 described above will be described.
In some embodiments, the unit selling profit forecasting unit 3 may forecast the selling profit based on the past results. More specifically, as shown in FIG. 1, the operation plan planning device 1 further includes a past record database 7. And as shown to FIG. 2A-FIG. 2B, the unit electric power selling profit forecasting part 3 has the fuel unit price forecasting part 31, the electricity selling unit price forecasting part 32, and the profit calculation part 33. FIG. The fuel unit price is the fuel price per unit amount such as unit weight or unit volume. The selling price is the sales amount per unit power generation.

  The past performance database 7 is a unit price of fuel unit price Br, which is the past purchase price (sales price) per unit amount of fossil fuel, and a unit price history of power sales Sr, which is the past electricity sale price (sales price) per unit power generation And the database in association with each other. More specifically, in order to obtain (calculate) the fuel unit price forecast Bp as described later, the past result database 7 stores the time transition of the past fuel unit price actual Br.

  For example, as shown in FIG. 1, the table managed by the past performance database 7 stores a date and time information field for storing date and time such as monthly, daily and hourly units, and fuel unit price performance Br at that date and time. The fuel unit price result information field may be included. Alternatively, the table of the past performance database 7 may have a date and time information field, and an information field for storing a fuel price at that date and a fuel amount (weight, volume, etc.) at the fuel price. Then, when such a table has a plurality of records, the time transition of the fuel unit price record Br is stored in the past record database 7.

  In addition, in order to calculate the power sale unit price forecast Sp in the past results database 7 as described later, for example, the above-described table has a power sale unit price results information field for storing the past power sale unit price results Sr. (Refer to FIG. 1) or the above table for storing the time transition of the fuel unit price record Br and the other table for storing the time transition of the power sale unit price record Sr are related by date or ID. As a result, the past fuel unit price result Br and the past power sale unit price result Sr are associated with each other.

  The fuel unit price prediction unit 31 obtains the fuel unit price prediction Bp for each unit period Tu in the evaluation period T, based on the fuel unit price results Br stored in the past results database 7. In some embodiments, the fuel unit price prediction unit 31 may obtain the fuel unit price prediction Bp as constant over the evaluation period T. More specifically, the latest fuel unit price result Br may be acquired from the past result database 7, and the value may be used as the fuel unit price prediction Bp in the evaluation period T. The average value of a plurality of fuel unit price results Br obtained from one or more evaluation periods T in the past, or a statistical value such as a mode value or a median may be used as the fuel unit price prediction Bp. In some other embodiments, the fuel unit price prediction unit 31 may obtain the fuel unit price prediction Bp as changing in the evaluation period T. More specifically, the fuel unit price of each unit period Tu belonging to the evaluation period T is assumed as the fuel unit price prediction Bp in the evaluation period T changes similarly to the change of the fuel unit price performance Br in any evaluation period T in the past. The prediction Bp may be obtained respectively.

  In addition, the fuel unit price prediction unit 31 may obtain at least the fuel unit price prediction Bp in a necessary range of the evaluation period T. For example, when there is a plan for a shutdown period of the fossil power plant 81, Since power generation is not performed in such a period, the fuel unit price prediction Bp may or may not be acquired for a unit period Tu overlapping with such a period.

  The power sale unit price prediction unit 32 acquires the power sale unit price forecast Sp for each unit period Tu in the evaluation period T, based on the fuel unit price results Br stored in the past results database 7. In some embodiments, based on the comparison of the fuel unit price performance Br stored in the past performance database 7 with the fuel unit price prediction Bp acquired by the fuel unit price prediction unit 31, each unit period Tu in the evaluation period T The power sale unit price forecast Sp may be acquired. Specifically, the power sale unit price prediction unit 32 transmits a search instruction described in SQL or the like using the fuel unit price prediction Bp acquired by the fuel unit price prediction unit 31 as a search condition to the past results database 7 as the search condition. A record having a coincident fuel unit price record Br is extracted from the past record database 7. At this time, if the difference (difference) between the fuel unit price forecast Bp and the fuel unit price record Br is within a predetermined value (such as within ± α%), it is not necessary to be completely the same. The above-mentioned coincidence may be determined with a predetermined width. At this time, when a plurality of fuel unit price results Br are extracted, an average value of a plurality of power sale unit price results Sr obtained from each record having each of the plurality of fuel unit price results Br, a mode, etc. The statistical value may be used as the unit price forecast Sp.

  However, the present invention is not limited to the above embodiment. In some other embodiments, the past results database 7 supports various additional information (sales unit price influence information) including weather conditions such as humidity and temperature that affect the unit price of sale, and the unit price record Sr. And / or stores various additional information (fuel unit price influence information) such as coal storage amount and coal productivity that affect the fuel unit price in association with the fuel unit price record Br. When the amount of stored coal (inventory) is large, the price tends to decrease, and when the coal productivity increases, the price tends to decrease. Then, the power sale unit price prediction unit 32 stores the prediction information and / or the fuel unit price prediction Bp in the evaluation period T of the additional information (the power sale unit price influence information and / or the fuel unit price influence information) in the past record database 7 Based on the additional information and / or the actual fuel unit price result Br, the similarity between at least a part of the fuel unit price prediction Bp and the additional information in the evaluation period T and the plurality of records managed in the past actual result database 7 For example, one or more records may be acquired based on the calculated similarity, such as acquiring a record with high similarity. When a plurality of records are acquired, the power sale unit price forecast Sp may be calculated based on the statistical value as described above. More specifically, a known method capable of obtaining similarity, such as matching by dynamic programming, is applied, or machine learning is performed using various information as parameters, and most similar through determination of matching with comparison targets It is also possible to obtain a power sale unit price record Sr for which a match has been determined by determining one with a high degree as a match. In machine learning, various types of information managed in a table may be trained as training data in advance, and training may be performed in advance to determine a match, and may be completed as a determination model. Also good. As a result, it is possible to acquire the power sale unit price results Sr having high similarity from the past results database 7. The ratio (for example, Br ÷ Sr) of the fuel unit price record Br and the power sale unit price record Sr included in the record that is the basis of the fuel unit price forecast Bp is determined, and the fuel unit price forecast Bp is multiplied by the inverse number The unit price forecast Sp may be obtained (Sp = Bp × Sr ÷ Br).

  Similarly, the fuel unit price prediction unit 31 also compares the predicted value of the additional information (fuel unit price influence information) in the evaluation period T with the actual value of the additional information recorded in the past actual result database 7 in the past. A plurality of fuel unit price results Br acquired from one or more evaluation periods T of may be acquired, and the statistical value or the like may be calculated. The similarity with the set of predicted values of each additional information described above is obtained for each record by machine learning or the like, and the fuel unit price result Br obtained from one record with the highest similarity may be used as the fuel unit price forecast Bp, A statistical value of the fuel unit price result Br obtained from a plurality of records having high similarity may be used as the fuel unit price prediction Bp.

  The profit calculation unit 33 calculates the amount of fuel required to generate a unit power generation amount (unit power generation fuel amount), and based on the calculated amount of fuel, fuel unit price prediction, and unit price prediction, Calculate Pu. Specifically, the unit fuel generation amount may be obtained from actual values and specifications of the power generation plant 8 (such as efficiency at rated load operation). Then, the unit selling profit Pu for each unit period Tu can be obtained by subtracting the value obtained by multiplying the fuel unit price forecast Bp by the unit power generation fuel amount from the selling unit price forecast Sp (Pu = Sp−Bp X Unit power generation fuel).

  According to the above configuration, the fuel unit price for each unit period Tu is predicted (the fuel unit price prediction Bp is acquired) based on the fuel unit price results Br of the past results database 7, and this fuel unit price prediction Bp and the past results database 7 Based on the comparison with the fuel unit price actuals Br, for example, based on the power sale unit price actuals Sr obtained through, for example, extracting the power sale unit price actuals Sr associated with the fuel unit price actuals Br matching the fuel unit price forecast Bp. The power sales unit price is predicted (the power sales unit price forecast Sp is calculated). Then, based on the amount of fuel required to generate unit power generation and fuel unit price forecast Bp, the fuel cost required to generate unit power generation is calculated, and based on this fuel cost and unit price forecast Sp Unit sales profit Pu is calculated. By this, it is possible to predict unit selling profit Pu based on the past results.

  In the following, as shown in FIG. 1, the operation plan planning device 1 includes the total fossil power generation acquisition unit 5 (the second total fossil power generation acquisition unit 52), so that the target regulation value V of the regulation parameter R described above is obtained. Based on the total fossil power generation amount Gc (including the second total fossil power generation amount) calculated as described later based on the individual power generation amounts for each of a plurality of unit periods Tu belonging to the evaluation period T described above, the above-described operation An embodiment for drafting a plan Op will be described.

First, some embodiments will be described where the regulatory parameter R mentioned above is a CO ₂ emission factor (eg kg / kWh).
In this case, the actual emission factor was calculated by dividing the actual carbon dioxide emissions emitted as a result of power generation by fossil fuel by the amount of electric power sold, in units of evaluation period T, for each power generation company. From the relationship between the value of the actual emission factor and the range of the regulatory parameter R of each evaluation class C, the evaluation class C of the enterprise is determined. Further, as understood from the above calculation method, the actual emission factor can be said to be an index showing an efficient relationship between the amount of CO ₂ emissions and the amount of power generation of the power plant 8, and the smaller the CO ₂ emission factor is This is desirable because the amount of CO ₂ emissions per unit power generation from the power plant 82 is small. According to the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, actual carbon dioxide emissions are determined based on the amount of fuel type used, the unit calorific value for each fuel type, and the multiplication of the fuel type emission coefficient. Therefore, the actual emission coefficient is lowered by adopting a fuel type having a smaller fuel type emission coefficient or improving the operation efficiency of the fossil power generation plant 81 to reduce the unit calorific value for each fuel type. Is possible.

Describing the present embodiment in detail, in some embodiments, the target regulation value V described above is a target emission coefficient Vc which is a target value of a CO ₂ emission coefficient which is a regulation parameter R. In addition, as shown in FIG. 1, the fossil total power generation amount acquiring unit 5 is a total of the power generation amount generated by the fossil power generation plant 81 in the evaluation period T, and a fossil capable of achieving the target emission coefficient Vc in the evaluation period T. The total power generation amount Gc is acquired. Then, the above-described power generation plan planning unit 4 determines the above-mentioned individual power generation amount based on the total fossil power generation amount Gc and the unit sales profit Pu for each unit period Tu.

  Explaining how to calculate the above-mentioned total fossil power generation amount Gc, if the actual emission coefficient (past results) of the fossil power generation plant 81 in the past evaluation period T is less than or equal to the target emission coefficient Vc, If the operating conditions such as the facilities, fuel, and operating method of the fossil power generation plant 81 in the evaluation period T are the same, the same actual emission coefficient in the past can be expected, so the fossil total power generation amount Gc can be a desired power generation amount It is. Therefore, for example, it may be the total power generation amount in the past when the actual emission coefficient satisfies the condition of the target emission coefficient Vc or less, or the maximum power generation amount that can be generated in the evaluation period T of the fossil power generation plant 81 . This maximum power generation amount may be calculated, for example, in consideration of the operation rate of the past fossil power generation plant 81 and the like. Conversely, when the actual emission coefficient of the fossil power generation plant 81 is larger than the target emission coefficient Vc, the total fossil power generation amount Gc is the total power generation amount generated by the renewable energy described later (the total energy generation amount Gr Based on the dilution effect of the actual emission factor by total biomass power generation Gb and / or, it is necessary to make the target emission factor Vc be equal to or less than the maximum amount of power generation that can be achieved (details will be described later).

  Further, as already described, the power generation plan planning unit 4 preferentially allocates the obtained total fossil power generation Gc to the unit period Tu in which the unit selling profit Pu is relatively high. The individual power generation amount for each unit period Tu is determined. For example, when a plurality of unit periods Tu subject to power generation are arranged in descending order of unit selling profit Pu, the power generation amount of the fossil total power generation amount Gc is allocated from the first to the maximum power generation amount in the unit period Tu. Thus, the individual power generation amount of each of the plurality of unit periods Tu may be determined. As a result, the operation plan Op in the evaluation period T configured of the plurality of unit periods Tu in time-series order to which the power generation amount is allocated is formulated.

According to the above configuration, the evaluation value (actual emission coefficient) of the CO ₂ emission coefficient calculated after the elapsing of the evaluation period achieves the target value (target emission coefficient Vc) of the CO ₂ emission coefficient which is the regulatory parameter R. While calculating the total power generation amount (fossil total power generation amount Gc) by such a fossil power generation plant 81 and calculating the total power generation amount Gc calculated for the evaluation period T, for example, to a maximum, a plurality of unit periods The above-described individual power generation amount in the evaluation period T is determined as distributed to Tu. In this way, it is possible to draft an operation plan Op that also achieves the target evaluation class Ct by satisfying the target emission factor Vc and also pursues the economics such as maximizing the above-mentioned total selling profit.

  Moreover, the case where the past actual emission factor of the fossil power generation plant 81 mentioned above is larger than the target emission factor Vc is demonstrated using FIG. FIG. 4 is a diagram for explaining a calculation logic of the total biomass power generation amount Gb according to the embodiment of the present invention.

In some embodiments, power plant 8 is a re-energy power plant 82 that utilizes renewable energy that is not considered to have emitted CO ₂ , as shown in FIG. 1, by a method other than fuel combustion. It further includes a re-energized normal power plant 82a that generates power. Power generation using renewable energy such as sunlight, wind power, water power, geothermal heat, solar heat, atmospheric heat, and other heat in the natural world burns biomass as fuel like biomass, which is also renewable energy. Unlike the power generation method, power generation is performed according to natural conditions.

Then, as shown in FIG. 4, the above-described total fossil power generation amount acquiring unit 5 is a total of the power generation amount generated by the fossil power generation plant 81 in the evaluation period T, and has a total fossil power generation target amount Ga having a desired value. Total power generation amount (re-energy market) during the evaluation period T by the fossil total power generation target acquisition part 61 to be acquired and the re-energy power plant 82 (re-energy running power plant 82a) that generates power with renewable energy excluding biomass as described above Target emissions are calculated according to the actual emission factor of CO ₂ calculated based on the total power generation amount acquisition unit 62 for acquiring total power generation amount Gr), the total fossil power generation amount Ga, and the total power generation amount Gr for renewable energy The total emission of fossils when it is determined that the target emission coefficient Vc can be achieved by the target regulation achievement determination unit 63 which determines whether the achievement of the coefficient Vc is possible and the target regulation achievement determination unit 63 And a fossil total power generation amount determination unit 65 configured to determine the electric power target amount Ga as the above-described total fossil power generation amount Gc.

Here, power generation using fossil fuel is said to emit CO ₂ according to the type of fuel (classification), while solar light, wind power, water power, geothermal heat, solar heat, heat in the atmosphere, and other heat in the natural world Power generation using renewable energy such as biomass is not considered to have emitted CO ₂ . And, generally, the power generation by this renewable energy is inferior to the thermal power generation using fossil fuels in view of the power supply capacity and the economy with respect to the power demand. However, regulation parameter R is, when the unit amount of power (e.g., kWh) CO ₂ emissions per (e.g. kg) in a CO ₂ emission factor (eg kg / kWh), the real in the evaluation period T by power plant 8 Since the emission factor is obtained by dividing the total emission amount of CO ₂ by fossil fuel by the total generation amount by fossil fuel and renewable energy, the total generation amount by renewable energy without emission of CO ₂ is It brings about the dilution effect which makes the calculation result of the actual emission factor smaller.

The actual emission factor is as long as the fossil fuel type is changed to one with lower CO2 emission (with a lower emission factor by fuel type), the facility is changed to a better one, or the operation efficiency is improved. It is considered that the same value is obtained in the evaluation period T which is the target of the operation plan Op. For this reason, if the latest actual emission coefficient etc. is larger than the target emission coefficient Vc, first, the amount of power generation desired to be generated by the fossil power generation plant 81 in the evaluation period T, or the facility information and operation of the fossil power generation plant 81 The capacity value etc. of the total power generation amount is calculated based on the results of the rate, etc., and the calculated value is the total fossil power generation target amount Ga, and the total emission of CO ₂ based on the total fossil power generation target amount Ga and the actual emission factor in the past Calculate the planned amount (total planned amount of CO ₂ = actual emission factor in the past × total target amount of fossil power generation Ga). Next, the amount of CO ₂ emission planned calculated in the previous step divided by the total of the fossil total power generation target amount Ga and the total electric energy generation total amount Gr generated electric power required to become equal to or less than the target emission factor Vc The gross power generation amount Gr is calculated (Gr = total planned emission amount of CO ₂ ÷ Vc-Ga).

  Then, when the required value of the re-energy generated total power generation amount Gr is equal to or less than the re-energy generated total power generation amount Gr acquired by the re-energy generated total power generation amount acquisition unit 62, the target regulation achievement determination unit 63 It is determined that the achievement of the coefficient Vc is possible. At this time, the re-generated total power generation amount Gr is, for example, a record of the past total power generation amount by the re-energy generated power generation plant 82a (re-energy generated power generation device), and the total power generation amount in any past evaluation period T Or a statistical value of the actual results of the total power generation amount in each of the plurality of evaluation periods T in the past, or a predicted value that predicts the total power generation amount by the re-generation normal power generation plant 82a in the evaluation period.

On the contrary, when the required value of the re-energy generated total power generation amount Gr is larger than the re-energy generated total power generation amount Gr acquired by the re-energy generated total power generation amount acquisition unit 62, the target regulation achievement determination unit 63 It is determined that achievement of the emission factor Vc is not possible. In this case, even if the amount of power generated by that amount is purchased by purchasing the amount of power generated by the renewable energy by another power producer or by using biomass fuel as described later. Well, in this way, the power producer can expand the range of selection of the target evaluation class Ct. Alternatively, the fossil total power generation acquisition unit 5 reduces the total fossil power generation target amount Ga to reduce the total planned emission amount of CO ₂ from the power generation plant 8, thereby achieving the total fossil power generation that can achieve the target emission coefficient Vc. You may obtain the quantity Gc. For example, in the embodiment shown in FIG. 1, the target regulation achievement determination unit 63 calculates the corrected fossil total power generation target amount Ga ′ smaller than the fossil total power generation target amount Ga so that the target emission coefficient Vc can be achieved. Also good. It may be a combination of these. In the embodiment shown in FIG. 1, the information for acquiring the re-generation total electric power generation amount Gr is managed by the past results database 7.

According to the above configuration, in the case where the regulation parameter R is the target value of the CO ₂ emission coefficient (target emission coefficient Vc), the target is achieved by considering the dilution effect of the actual emission coefficient by the total energy generation amount Gr. It is determined whether the emission factor Vc can be achieved. Thereby, when formulating the operation plan Op for each of a plurality of evaluation classes C, formulate an operation plan Op that also pursues economics in such evaluation class C while determining the achievable evaluation class C. be able to.

Further, in the above-described embodiment, the target regulation achievement determination unit 63 is one of the above-described re-energy power generation plants 82 and generates power using biomass fuel when it is determined that the achievement of the target emission coefficient Vc is not possible. It is also possible to consider the dilution effect of the actual emission coefficient by the total biomass power generation amount Gb, which is regarded as the amount of power generation without emission of CO ₂ by the biomass power generation plant 82b. Power generation using renewable energy such as solar light and wind power is performed according to natural conditions such as uncontrollable weather conditions, and power generation is performed according to the situation, so it is difficult to control the amount of power generation. is assumed. On the other hand, power generation utilizing renewable energy by burning fuel such as biomass can be expected to generate power according to the amount of fuel used, so control of the amount of power generation is relatively easy. Therefore, it is possible to perform adjustment for achieving the target emission coefficient Vc by the dilution effect of the actual emission coefficient by biomass power generation.

Thus, in some embodiments, power plant 8 further includes biomass power plant 82b described above, as shown in FIG. Then, as shown in FIG. 4, when the target regulation achievement judging unit 63 judges that the achievement of the target emission coefficient Vc is not possible, the fossil total power generation acquisition unit 5 is in the evaluation period T by the biomass power generation plant 82b. The target emission factor Vc is achieved by the actual emission coefficient of CO ₂ calculated based on the total biomass power generation amount Gb, which is the total electricity generation amount, the fossil total power generation target amount Ga, and the total renewable energy generation amount Gr. Further, the system further includes a total biomass power generation calculation unit 64 that calculates the total biomass power generation Gb. That is, the biomass total power generation amount calculation unit 64 sets the total planned amount of CO ₂ emissions from the power generation plant 8 described above to the total fossil power generation target amount Ga and the total renewable energy generation power amount Gr already acquired. The biomass total power generation amount Gb necessary for the value divided by the total power generation amount including Gb to become the target emission coefficient Vc or less is calculated.

In the case where the total biomass power generation Gb has an upper limit value, etc., the total fossil fuel power generation unit 5 reassess the total planned emission amount of CO ₂ from the power plant 8 by the total fossil fuel power generation amount Ga described above. CO ₂ by reducing the total fossil power generation target amount Ga, if the value divided by the total generated power of the total energy generation amount Gr and the total upper limit value of the total biomass generation amount Gb does not fall below the target emission coefficient Vc By reducing the total planned amount of emissions, it is possible to obtain a fossil total power generation amount Gc that can achieve the target emission factor Vc. For example, in the embodiment illustrated in FIG. 4, the biomass total power generation amount calculation unit 64 calculates the corrected fossil total power generation target amount Ga ′ smaller than the fossil total power generation target amount Ga so that the target emission coefficient Vc can be achieved. It is good. It may be a combination of these. In the embodiment shown in FIG. 1, the information for acquiring the re-energy total power generation amount Gr and the biomass total power generation amount Gb is managed by the past results database 7.

  At this time, in some embodiments, the operation plan Op (biomass operation plan Opb) of the biomass power plant 82b may be formulated in the same manner as the above-described method of planning the operation plan Op of the fossil power plant 81. Specifically, based on the information stored in the past performance database 7, the unit sales profit forecasting unit 3 predicts the unit price of biomass fuel fuel and the unit price of electricity generated by biomass fuel in the evaluation period T. Then, based on the prediction result, the power sale profit per power generation amount for each unit period Tu constituting the evaluation period T is calculated. In addition, the power generation plan planning unit 4 preferentially allocates biomass total power generation amount Gb predicted by the unit power sales profit prediction unit 3 to a unit period Tu in which the power sales profit per power generation amount is high, thereby generating biomass power generation. A biomass operation plan Opb of the plant 82b may be formulated. The selling price may be fixed under a fixed price purchase system (FIT) or the like.

  Moreover, although calculation of the biomass total electric power generation amount Gb mentioned above is performed before the evaluation period T begins, etc., you may review after the evaluation period T has started. More specifically, while operating the power plant 8 in accordance with the planned operation plan Op, based on the monitoring result such as accumulating measurement values of the actual amount of power generated by the recurrent normal power plant 82a by accident. Alternatively, it may be determined whether or not the total biomass power generation amount Gb can be obtained in the evaluation period T, and reconsidered based on the determination result. Specifically, first, the predicted value is compared with the accumulated value (actual accumulated power generation amount) of the actual amount of power generation at any review point after the start of the evaluation period T, which is generated by the reenergy normal power plant 82a. Do. Based on this result, when it is predicted that the actual amount of power generation by the reenergized normal power generation plant 82a does not reach the reenergized total power generation amount Gr, the biomass power generation plant 82b performed after the above review time Increase power generation. On the contrary, when it is predicted that the amount of power generation over the evaluation period T by the re-energy normal power generation plant 82a exceeds the re-energy total power generation amount Gr at the review time, the biomass power plant performed after the above review time You may reduce the amount of power generation of 82b.

  For this reason, in some embodiments, as shown in FIG. 4, the operation planning unit 1 calculates the transition forecast of the accumulated power generation period by the re-generated normal power generation plant 82 a in the evaluation period T, During the operation of the fossil power generation plant 81 according to the operation plan Op determined according to the section (not shown), there is a gap between the actual actual accumulated accumulation of electricity and the accumulated accumulation of electricity by the re-generated normal generation plant 82a. When it is determined that it has occurred, a biomass total power generation amount correction unit (not shown) is further provided to calculate the power generation amount by the biomass power generation plant 82b thereafter so as to correct such deviation. Also good. As a result, the amount of power generation by the biomass power generation plant 82b can be determined so as to correct the above-mentioned deviation and to match the actual accumulated power generation with the normal accumulated power generation. Then, for example, by connecting the total biomass power generation correction unit to the power generation volume planning unit 4, the biomass operation plan Opb can be created again and sent to the plant control device 82c of the biomass power generation plant 82b, or directly By sending the determined amount of power generation to the biomass operation plan Opb of the biomass power generation plant 82b by sending it to 82c or the like, it is possible to realize the re-energy total power generation amount Gr as planned, and the target emission factor It becomes possible to achieve Vc reliably.

  According to the above configuration, the target emission coefficient Vc is achieved when the power plant 8 includes the fossil power plant 81 and the reenergy power plant 82 including the reenergy existing power plant 82a and the biomass power plant 82b. Thus, the amount of power generation (biomass total power generation amount Gb) by the biomass power generation plant 82b is calculated. Thereby, when drafting the operation plan Op for each of a plurality of evaluation classes C, it is possible to determine an achievable evaluation class C and to formulate an operation plan with high economic efficiency in such evaluation class C. .

In the case where the fossil power generation plant 81 is a co-firing power plant capable of co-firing fossil fuel and biomass fuel at a predetermined co-firing rate, if the co-firing rate of the biomass fuel (co-firing rate) is increased, although power generation from fossil fuels by reducing the fuel is reduced, the reduction of emissions of CO _2, and, since the increase in power generation without emission of CO ₂ from biomass fuel can be expected, is possible to reduce the actual emission factor It becomes possible. Therefore, regardless of whether or not the target regulation achievement determination unit 63 determines that the achievement of the target emission coefficient Vc is not possible, whether or not the power plant 8 includes the re-generation normal power plant 82a. Alternatively, the mixed combustion ratio of the mixed combustion power plant may be adjusted to achieve the target emission coefficient Vc.

Next, several embodiments will be described in the case where the above-mentioned regulatory parameter R is the total emission control amount of CO ₂ (for example, kg).
In this case, the relationship between the actual carbon dioxide emissions emitted as a result of power generation by fossil fuel and the range of the control parameter R of each evaluation class C in units of the evaluation period T for each power generation company, The evaluation class C of the enterprise is decided.

More specifically, in some embodiments, the target regulation value V described above is a target total emission regulation amount Vq, which is a target value of the total emission regulation amount of CO ₂ which is a regulation parameter R. Further, as shown in FIG. 1, the operation planning device 1 generates power by the fossil power generation plant 81 based on the past actual emission coefficient (for example, kg / kWh) of the fossil power generation plant 81 and the target total emission restriction amount Vq. The system further includes a fossil total power generation acquisition unit 5 (second fossil total power generation acquisition unit 52) that acquires a fossil total power generation Gc (second fossil total power generation), which is a possible power generation amount. Then, the power generation amount planning unit 4 determines the individual power generation amount based on the second fossil total power generation amount and the unit sales profit Pu in each of the plurality of unit periods Tu.

Specifically, the fossil total power generation amount acquiring unit 5 obtains the total fossil power generation amount Gc by dividing the target total emission control amount Vq by the past actual emission coefficient (second total fossil power generation amount = target total emission) Regulated amount 実 actual emission factor in the past). Further, the power generation plan planning unit 4 is capable of achieving the total fossil power generation capable of achieving the target total emission control amount Vq in the evaluation period T, as in the case where the regulation parameter R described above is the CO ₂ emission coefficient (for example, kg / kWh). The amount Gc is preferentially allocated to the unit period Tu in which the power selling profit is relatively high.

According to the arrangement, to calculate the fossil total generation Gc regulatory parameters R a is CO ₂ total emissions permitted amount of the target value (target total emissions permitted amount Vq) the achievable fossil power plant 81, the evaluation period The generated total power generation amount Gc is distributed to a plurality of unit periods Tu such that the power sale profit at T is, for example, maximized, and the power generation amount (individual power generation amount) for each unit period Tu is determined. As a result, by satisfying the target total emission control amount Vq, it is possible to create a highly economical operation plan Op, such as maximizing the sale of electricity, while achieving the target evaluation class Ct.

  Hereinafter, the operation plan drafting method of a power plant corresponding to the processing which operation plan drafting device 1 mentioned above performs is explained using Drawings 5-6. FIG. 5 is a flow chart showing a method of planning an operation plan of a power plant according to an embodiment of the present invention. Moreover, FIG. 6 is a figure which shows the fossil total electric power generation amount acquisition step (S3) based on one Embodiment of this invention.

The operation plan drafting method of the power generation plant (hereinafter simply referred to as the operation plan drafting method) is a method of drafting an individual power generation amount for each unit period Tu of the power plant 8 including the above-described fossil power plant 81 over the evaluation period T. As shown in FIG. 5, the operation plan drafting method includes a target regulation value acquiring step (S1), a unit power sales profit predicting step (S2), and a power generation plan drafting step (S4). Further, in the embodiment shown in FIG. 5, the total fossil power generation acquisition step (S3) is executed between the unit selling profit prediction step (S1) and the power generation plan planning step (S4). In addition, the operation plan drafting method is automatically performed using the operation plan drafting apparatus 1 before the start of the evaluation period T of the object which drafts the operation plan Op. It may be carried out manually.
The operation planning method shown in FIG. 5 will be described in the order of steps shown in FIG.

In step S1 of FIG. 5, a target regulation value acquisition step is executed. The target regulation value acquiring step (S1) is a step of acquiring the target regulation value V of the above-mentioned regulation parameter R capable of achieving the target evaluation class Ct in the above-mentioned enterprise evaluation standard. The regulatory parameter R may be a CO ₂ emission factor or a total CO ₂ emission control amount. The target regulation value acquisition step (S1) is the same as the processing content executed by the target regulation value acquisition unit 2 described above, and thus details thereof will be omitted, but in some embodiments, the target regulation value acquisition step (S1) The target evaluation class Ct is acquired based on the safety parameter acquisition step (not shown) for acquiring the safety parameter S described above and the reference value of the regulation parameter R and the safety parameter S previously determined in the target evaluation class Ct described above. And a target regulation value calculating step (not shown) of calculating as the target regulation value V a value smaller than the above reference value in the above by a predetermined value or a predetermined ratio. In addition, since a safety parameter acquisition step and a target regulation value calculation step are respectively the same as the processing contents executed by the safety parameter acquisition unit 21 and the target regulation value calculation unit 22 described above, the details will be omitted.

  In step S2, unit sales profit prediction step is executed. The unit selling profit prediction step (S2) is a step of predicting, for each unit period Tu, the unit selling profit Pu described above generated by the fossil power generation plant 81. The unit selling profit prediction step (S2) is the same as the processing performed by the unit selling profit prediction unit 3 described above, and thus details thereof will be omitted. However, in some embodiments, the unit selling profit prediction step (S2) is a fuel unit price prediction step (S21) of acquiring a fuel unit price prediction Bp for each unit period Tu in the evaluation period T based on the fuel unit price results Br stored in the above-mentioned past results database 7; Based on the fuel unit price record Br stored in the database 7, the unit price for fuel unit price forecasting step (S22) for acquiring the unit price Tu for each unit period Tu in the evaluation period T and the unit fuel generation amount described above are calculated. And a profit calculation step (S23) of calculating the unit sales profit Pu based on the calculated unit power generation fuel amount, the fuel unit price forecast Bp, and the unit sales price forecast Sp. It may have. The fuel unit price prediction step (S21), the power sale unit price prediction step (S22), and the profit calculation step (S23) are performed by the fuel unit price prediction unit 31, the power sale unit price prediction unit 32, and the profit calculation unit 33 described above. Since the processing content is the same as the processing content, the details will be omitted. In the embodiment shown in FIG. 5, in step S22, the sale of electricity for each unit period Tu in the evaluation period T is performed based on the comparison between the fuel unit price forecast Bp and the fuel unit price actuals Br stored in the past results database 7. The unit price forecast Sp is obtained.

In step S3, a total fossil power generation amount acquisition step of acquiring the total fossil power generation amount Gc described above is executed. The detailed fossil power generation acquisition step (S3) is the same as the processing performed by the total fossil power generation acquisition unit 5 (the second total fossil power generation acquisition unit 52) described above, and thus details thereof will be omitted. In the case where the regulatory parameter R is a CO ₂ emission factor, the total fossil power generation amount Gc is a total fossil fuel power generation amount capable of achieving the target emission factor Vc in the evaluation period T, and the regulatory parameter R is CO ₂ total In the case of the emission control amount, the fossil total power generation amount Gc is, for example, a total electric energy amount obtained by dividing the target total emission control amount Vq of the fossil power generation plant 81 by the past actual emission coefficient.

Further, in the above-mentioned total fossil power generation step (S3), a fossil capable of achieving the target emission factor Vc in the evaluation period T on the premise of the dilution effect of the actual emission factor by the electric power generation by renewable energy as described above. The total fossil power generation amount Gc by fuel may be determined. That is, in some embodiments, as shown in FIG. 6, the fossil total power generation step (S3) includes the above-described total fossil power generation target when the power plant 8 includes the above-described regenerative power generation plant 82a. Total power generation target amount acquisition step (S31) for acquiring the amount Ga, re-energy total power generation amount acquisition step (S32) for acquiring the above-mentioned re-energy total power generation amount Gr, the total fossil power generation target amount Ga and re- Target regulation achievement determination step (S33 to S34) to determine whether or not achievement of the target emission coefficient Vc is possible based on the actual emission coefficient of CO ₂ calculated based on the energy generation total power generation amount Gr, and the target regulation achievement Total fossil power generation where the total fossil power generation amount Ga is determined as the total fossil power generation amount Gc when it is determined in the determination step (S33 to S34) that achievement of the target emission factor Vc is possible And the quantity determination step (S36).

Furthermore, when the power generation plant 8 further includes the above-described biomass power generation plant 82b, as shown in FIG. 6, the above-described total fossil power generation amount acquisition step (S3) is the above target regulation achievement determination step (S33 to S34). If it is determined that the achievement of the target emission factor Vc is not possible, the CO calculated based on the above-mentioned total biomass power generation Gb, total fossil power generation target Ga, and total renewable energy generation Gr. _It further has a biomass total power generation amount calculation step (S35) which calculates biomass total power generation amount Gb so that the target emission coefficient Vc is achieved by the actual emission coefficient of ₂ , and the above-mentioned fossil total power generation amount determination step (S36) Is the total fossil power generation amount Ga, which was used to calculate the total biomass power generation Gb in the total biomass power generation calculation step (S35), It may be determined as the amount Gc.

  In step S4, a power generation amount planning step is performed. In the power generation amount planning step (S4), a regulation parameter R for the evaluation period T calculated after the evaluation period T is calculated based on the target regulation value V and the unit sales profit Pu for each unit period Tu. The individual power generation amount by the fossil power generation plant 81 in the evaluation period T is determined so that the evaluation value does not exceed the target regulation value V. Since the power generation amount planning step (S4) is the same as the processing content executed by the power generation amount planning unit 4 described above, the details will be omitted.

  According to the above configuration, while ensuring the achievement of the target evaluation class Ct, the economy of the target evaluation class Ct is also sought, such as maximizing the total power generation profit obtained in the evaluation period T. The operation plan of the power generation plant 8 can be formulated.

  The present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, and includes the embodiments in which the above-described embodiments are modified, and the embodiments in which these embodiments are appropriately combined.

1 operation plan drafting device 2 target regulation value acquisition section 21 safety parameter acquisition section 22 target regulation value calculation section 3 unit selling profit forecasting section 31 fuel unit price forecasting section 32 selling electricity unit price forecasting section 33 profit calculating section 4 power generation plan planning section 5 fossil total power generation acquisition unit 52 second fossil total power generation acquisition unit 61 fossil total power generation total power generation volume acquisition unit 62 reenergy execution total power generation volume acquisition unit 63 target regulation achievement determination unit 64 total biomass power generation calculation unit 65 fossil Total power generation amount determination unit 7 Past results database 8 Power generation plant 81 Fossil power generation plant 81 c Plant control device 82 Re-energy power generation plant 82 a Re-energy running power generation plant 82 b Biomass power generation plant 82 c Plant control device

T Evaluation Period Tu unit period R regulatory parameters V CO ₂ target restriction value Vc CO ₂ target emission factor Vq CO ₂ target total emissions permitted amount C rating class Cr rated class information Ct target evaluation class Pu unit power selling profit Op operation Plan Opb Biomass operation plan Sp Sales unit price forecast Sr Sales unit price result Bp Fuel unit price forecast Br Fuel unit price track Gc Total fossil power generation Ga Total fossil power generation target Ga 'correction Fossil total power generation target Gb Biomass total power generation amount Gr Re-energy Total power generation S Safety parameter

Claims (14)

What is claimed is: 1. An operation plan drafting device for a power plant, wherein an individual power generation amount for each unit period of a power generation plant including a fossil power generation plant that generates fossil fuel is drafted over an evaluation period configured of a plurality of the unit periods.
Target regulatory value acquisition to obtain target regulatory value, which is the target value of the regulatory parameter related to CO ₂ emissions, capable of achieving the target evaluation class in the enterprise evaluation standard for classifying power generation companies according to the status of energy saving efforts Department,
A unit power sales profit forecasting unit that predicts a unit power sales profit per unit amount of electricity generated by the fossil power generation plant for each unit period;
The evaluation value of the regulation parameter for the evaluation period calculated after the evaluation period does not exceed the target regulation value, calculated based on the target regulation value and the unit power selling profit for each unit period. And a power generation plan planning unit configured to determine the individual power generation amount by the fossil power generation plant in the evaluation period. The past record database which associates and stores a fuel unit price result, which is a past purchase price per unit amount of fossil fuel, and a power sale unit price result, which is a past electricity sale price per unit power generation amount,
The unit selling profit forecasting unit
A fuel unit price prediction unit that acquires a fuel unit price prediction for each unit period in the evaluation period based on the fuel unit price results stored in the past performance database;
A power sale unit price prediction unit that acquires a power sale unit price forecast for each unit period in the evaluation period based on the fuel unit price results stored in the past performance database;
And a profit calculating unit that calculates the amount of fuel required to generate the unit power generation amount, and calculates the unit sales profit based on the fuel amount, the fuel unit price prediction, and the unit sales power forecast. The operation planning device of a power plant according to claim 1, characterized in that. The target regulation value is a target emission coefficient which is a target value of the CO ₂ emission coefficient which is the regulation parameter,
It further comprises a fossil total power generation acquisition unit that acquires a total fossil power generation amount capable of achieving the target emission coefficient in the evaluation period, which is a total of the power generation amount generated by the fossil power generation plant in the evaluation period,
The power generation according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the power generation amount planning unit determines the individual power generation amount based on the total fossil power generation amount and the unit sales profit for each unit period. Plant operation planning device. The power plant is a re-energy power plant using renewable energy that is not considered to have emitted the CO ₂ , and further includes a re-energized power plant that generates power by a method other than fuel combustion,
The fossil total power generation acquisition unit
A total fossil power generation target amount acquiring unit which acquires a total fossil power generation target amount having a desired value which is a sum of the power generation amounts generated by the fossil power generation plant in the evaluation period;
A renewable energy generated total power generation amount acquiring unit for acquiring a regenerative energy generated total power generation amount which is a total power generation amount in the evaluation period by the regenerative energy normal power generation plant;
A target regulation achievement judging unit which judges whether the target emission coefficient can be achieved or not, based on the actual emission coefficient of the CO ₂ calculated based on the total fossil power generation target amount and the total electric energy generation amount;
And a fossil total power generation amount determination unit configured to determine the total fossil power generation target amount as the total fossil power generation amount when it is determined that the target emission factor can be achieved by the target regulation achievement determination unit. The operation plan drafting device of the power plant according to claim 3. The power generation plant further includes a biomass power generation plant which is the re-energy power generation plant and generates power using biomass fuel;
The fossil total power generation acquisition unit
When it is determined by the target regulation achievement judging unit that the achievement of the target emission factor is not possible, the total power generation amount which is the total power generation amount in the evaluation period by the biomass power generation plant, and the total fossil power generation target amount A biomass total power generation amount calculating unit configured to calculate the total power generation amount of biomass such that the target emission coefficient is achieved by the actual emission coefficient of the CO ₂ calculated based on the total energy generation amount and the renewable energy generation amount; In addition,
The fossil total power generation amount determination unit determines the total fossil power generation amount used for calculation of the total biomass power generation by the total biomass power generation amount calculation unit as the total fossil power generation amount. The operation plan drafting apparatus of the power generation plant of claim 4. The target regulation value is a target total emission regulation amount which is a target value of the total emission regulation amount of CO ₂ which is the regulation parameter,
The second total power generation amount, which is a total power generation amount that can be generated by the fossil power generation plant in the evaluation period, is acquired based on the past actual emission coefficient of the fossil power generation plant and the target total emission control amount. Further equipped with a fossil total power generation acquisition unit,
The power generation amount planning unit determines the individual power generation amount based on the second fossil total power generation amount and the unit sales profit for each unit period. Operation planning device of the power generation plant.   The target regulation value acquiring unit determines a value smaller by a predetermined value or a predetermined ratio from the reference value in the target evaluation class based on the reference parameter of the regulation parameter and the safety parameter predetermined in the target evaluation class. The operation plan drafting device of a power plant according to any one of claims 1 to 6, which is calculated as the target regulation value. An operation plan drafting method of a power plant, wherein an individual power generation amount per unit period of a power plant including a fossil power plant that generates power using fossil fuel is drafted over an evaluation period configured of a plurality of the unit periods,
Target regulatory value acquisition to obtain target regulatory value, which is the target value of the regulatory parameter related to CO ₂ emissions, capable of achieving the target evaluation class in the enterprise evaluation standard for classifying power generation companies according to the status of energy saving efforts Step and
A unitary selling profit forecasting step of predicting, per unit period, a unit selling profit per unit amount of electricity generated by the fossil power generation plant;
The evaluation value of the regulation parameter for the evaluation period calculated after the evaluation period does not exceed the target regulation value, calculated based on the target regulation value and the unit power selling profit for each unit period. A power generation planning step of determining the individual power generation amount by the fossil power generation plant in the evaluation period; and a power plant operation planning method. The past record database which associates and stores a fuel unit price result, which is a past purchase price per unit amount of fossil fuel, and a power sale unit price result, which is a past electricity sale price per unit power generation amount,
The unit selling profit forecasting step is
A fuel unit price prediction step of acquiring a fuel unit price prediction for each unit period in the evaluation period, based on the fuel unit price results stored in the past performance database;
A power sale unit price prediction step of acquiring a power sale unit price forecast for each unit period in the evaluation period based on the fuel unit price results stored in the past performance database;
Calculating a fuel amount required to generate the unit power generation amount, and calculating a unit sales profit based on the fuel amount, the fuel unit price forecast, and the power sales unit price forecast; A method of planning an operation plan of a power plant according to claim 8, characterized in that. The target regulation value is a target emission coefficient which is a target value of the CO ₂ emission coefficient which is the regulation parameter,
A total fossil power generation amount acquiring step of acquiring a total fossil power generation amount capable of achieving the target emission coefficient in the evaluation period, which is a total of the power generation amount generated by the fossil power generation plant in the evaluation period,
10. The power generation according to claim 8, wherein the power generation amount planning step determines the individual power generation amount based on the total fossil power generation amount and the unit sales profit for each unit period. How to make operation plan of plant. The power plant is a re-energy power plant using renewable energy that is not considered to have emitted the CO ₂ , and further includes a re-energized power plant that generates power by a method other than fuel combustion,
The step of obtaining the total fossil power generation is
A total fossil power generation target amount acquiring step of acquiring a total fossil power generation target amount having a desired value which is a sum of the power generation amounts generated by the fossil power generation plant in the evaluation period;
A re-energy total power generation amount acquiring step of acquiring a re-energy total power generation amount which is a total power generation amount in the evaluation period by the re-energy normal power generation plant;
A target regulation achievement judging step of judging whether the target emission factor can be achieved or not based on the actual emission factor of the CO ₂ calculated based on the total fossil power generation target amount and the total electric power generation amount.
And determining the total fossil power generation amount as the total fossil power generation amount, wherein the total fossil power generation amount is determined to be capable of achieving the target emission coefficient by the target regulation achievement determination step. The operation plan drafting method of the power plant according to claim 10, wherein The power generation plant further includes a biomass power generation plant which is the re-energy power generation plant and generates power using biomass fuel;
The step of obtaining the total fossil power generation is
When it is determined in the target regulation achievement determination step that the achievement of the target emission factor is not possible, a total biomass power generation amount, which is a total power generation amount in the evaluation period by the biomass power plant, and the total fossil power generation target amount A biomass total power generation amount calculating step of calculating the biomass total power generation amount so that the target emission coefficient is achieved by the actual emission coefficient of the CO ₂ calculated based on the re-energy running total power generation amount; In addition,
In the total fossil power generation determination step, the total fossil power generation amount used for calculating the total biomass power generation in the total biomass power generation step is determined as the total fossil power generation amount. The operation plan drafting method of the power generation plant of item 11. The target regulation value is a target total emission regulation amount which is a target value of the total emission regulation amount of CO ₂ which is the regulation parameter,
The second total power generation amount, which is a total power generation amount that can be generated by the fossil power generation plant in the evaluation period, is acquired based on the past actual emission coefficient of the fossil power generation plant and the target total emission control amount. Further equipped with the fossil total power generation acquisition step,
10. The electric power generation planning step according to claim 8 or 9, wherein the electric power generation planning step determines the individual electric power generation amount based on the second fossil total electric power generation amount and the unit sales profit for each unit period. How to make an operation plan for a power plant.   In the target regulation value acquiring step, a value smaller by a predetermined value or a predetermined ratio than the reference value in the target evaluation class is determined based on the reference parameter of the regulation parameter and the safety parameter predetermined in the target evaluation class. The operation plan drafting method for a power plant according to any one of claims 8 to 13, wherein the method is calculated as the target regulation value.