JP2019061508A - Allowable repayment amount calculation device, repayment amount determination device, financial value calculation system and program - Google Patents

Abstract

To accurately calculate an allowable housing loan amount.SOLUTION: An allowable repayment amount calculation device which calculates a maximum allowable monthly repayment amount in a housing loan comprises: a condition acquisition section which acquires a loan condition including a repayment period of a loan; a rental value calculation section which acquires present or past house rent data from a house rent database and calculates an estimated rental value of a house during at least a portion of the repayment period; a disposition value calculation section which acquires present or past sale amount data from a sales amount database and calculates an estimated disposal value of the house at predetermined time in the future; and a maximum repayable amount calculation section which calculates the maximum allowable monthly repayment amount on the basis of the estimated rental value and estimated disposal value in the housing loan.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 3

Description

  The present invention relates to an allowable repayment calculation device, a repayment amount determination device, a financial value calculation system, and a program.

A person who borrows housing purchase funds from a bank or the like may be forced to convert the housing before repayment of the loan due to difficulty in repayment or other reasons. In this case, if the replacement price of the house does not reach the debt balance, the borrower will bear the remaining debt, which will affect the economic life thereafter.
As related prior art documents, there are the following documents.
Patent Document 1: Japanese Unexamined Patent Application Publication No. 2010-277138

  In the United States, there is a so-called non-recourse loan type mortgage which limits the responsible property of a mortgage to a collateralized housing and exempts the remaining debt if the collateral can not be completely satisfied. However, in the case of expelling the remaining debt, the creditor, the lending financial institution, will bear the remaining debt, and eventually it will be passed on to the borrower in the form of an increase in the loan interest rate.

  Instead of the financial institution providing a non-recourse mortgage, if the borrower is forced to replace the housing before repayment of the loan due to a difficulty in repayment or other reasons in the future, for the third party underwriter Instead of acquiring the right to the collateral housing and the site, giving the right to be able to underwrite the loan repayment under certain conditions brings about the same economic effect as the non-recourse type mortgage. be able to. In this case, it is preferable that the underwriter can accurately estimate the allowable monthly repayment amount for the collateral housing prior to the underwriting, but in the conventional technology, the allowable monthly repayment amount should be accurately calculated. Was difficult.

  In order to solve the above problems, according to a first aspect of the present invention, there is provided an allowable repayment amount calculation device for calculating a maximum value of monthly repayment amount permitted in a housing loan, which is a loan condition including a repayment period of the loan. A condition acquisition unit for acquiring the rent data of the current or past housing from the rent database, and a rental value calculation unit for calculating an estimated value of the rental value of the housing in at least a part of the repayment period; Disposal value calculation unit for acquiring the current or past sales data of houses from the sales database and calculating estimated value of disposal value of houses at a predetermined time in the future, estimated value of rental value and disposal An allowable repayment calculation device is provided, comprising: a maximum repayment calculation unit that calculates a maximum value of a monthly repayment amount permitted in a housing loan based on an estimated value of value.

  The maximum repayment amount calculation unit is configured to calculate the maximum monthly repayment amount satisfying the difference between the estimated value of the rental value and the monthly repayment amount in at least a part of the repayment period according to the estimated value of the disposal value It may be calculated as the maximum value of the repayment amount.

  The disposal value calculation unit may calculate an estimated value of the disposal value of the housing at the time of completion of the housing loan. The maximum repayment amount calculation unit has a probability of reaching the third party underwriting company and exercising the right to transfer the right of at least a part of the house and the site and accept the repayment of the housing loan (this specification (this specification) You may calculate the maximum value of the monthly repayment amount further based on

  The maximum repayment amount calculation unit calculates, for each time point within the repayment period, the expected value per time point when the integrated value of the difference between the estimated value of the rental value and the monthly repayment amount after that time is multiplied by the exercise probability at that time. The maximum monthly repayment amount may be calculated as the maximum monthly repayment amount within a range where the risk expectation value, which is the sum of the expected value per point, does not exceed the estimated value of the disposal value.

  The condition acquisition unit may acquire a plurality of types of repayment periods, and the maximum repayment amount calculation unit may calculate the maximum value of the monthly repayment amount for each repayment period.

  The rent data may include at least one of a current or past minimum guaranteed rent, a vacancy period, and an occupancy period for a rental home.

  The rent database and the sales amount database may classify and record data by region, and the rental value calculation unit and the disposal value calculation unit may obtain rent data and sales amount data of the corresponding region.

  In a second aspect of the present invention, a repayment amount determination device that determines whether or not an input monthly repayment amount is acceptable in a housing loan, and a condition for acquiring a loan condition including a repayment period of the loan. From the acquisition unit, a rental value calculation unit that acquires rent data of current or past houses from the rent database, and calculates an estimated value of the rental value of the house in at least a part of the repayment period, Disposal value calculation unit that acquires the sales value data of current or past houses and calculates the estimated value of the disposal value of the house at a predetermined time in the future, the estimated value of the rental value and the estimated value of the disposal value And a repayment amount determination unit that determines whether the input monthly repayment amount is acceptable or not. Financing conditions may include applicable interest rates.

  In a third aspect of the present invention, there is provided a financial value calculation system comprising at least one of the allowable repayment amount calculation device according to the first aspect and the repayment amount determination device according to the second aspect.

  According to a fourth aspect of the present invention, there is provided a program for causing a computer to function as the allowable repayment amount calculation device according to the first aspect.

  According to a fifth aspect of the present invention, there is provided a program for causing a computer to function as the repayment amount determination apparatus according to the second aspect.

  Note that the above summary of the invention does not enumerate all the necessary features of the present invention. In addition, a subcombination of these feature groups can also be an invention.

It is a block diagram showing an example of composition of financial value calculation system 100 concerning one embodiment of the present invention. It is a figure showing an outline of operation of underwriting business person system 10. FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing an outline of an allowable repayment amount calculation device 22. It is a figure which shows an example of the relationship of the disposal value of a house, rental value, the amount of monthly repayment, and a difference integrated value. It is a figure which shows the operation example of the amount calculation part 30 of largest repayment. FIG. 6 is a diagram for explaining an operation example of an allowable repayment amount calculation device 22. It is a figure which shows the example of calculation of expense CF of the said house after exercise of this subject right. It is a figure which shows the example of calculation of net operation | use CF of the said house after exercise of this subject right. It is a figure which shows an example of the process in a difference integrated value calculation module. It is a figure which shows an example of the process in a risk expected value calculation module. It is a figure which shows the process example of the amount calculation part 30 of largest repayment. FIG. 6 is a block diagram showing an overview of a repayment amount determination device 42. FIG. 7 is a diagram showing an example of processing of the repayment amount determination unit 50. It is a figure which shows the operation example of the risk management apparatus 62 at the time of exercise of this subject right. It is a figure which shows the operation example of the risk management apparatus 62 at the time of cash flow generation | occurrence | production after this subject exercise | movement. It is a figure which shows the example of calculation of the break even month by the risk management apparatus 62. FIG. It is a figure which shows an example of the risk management process of the risk management apparatus. 15 shows an example of a computer 1800 in which aspects of the present invention may be fully or partially embodied.

  Hereinafter, the present invention will be described through the embodiments of the invention, but the following embodiments do not limit the invention according to the claims. Moreover, not all combinations of features described in the embodiments are essential to the solution of the invention.

  FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing an exemplary configuration of a financial value calculation system 100 according to an embodiment of the present invention. The financial value calculation system 100 includes an underwriter system 10. Underwriter system 10 is a borrower who borrows a mortgage or the like (herein referred to as a housing loan) and purchases a house and site (herein, the house and site may be simply referred to as a house) But at least a part of the right to the underwriters' house and site (ownership or equivalent substantive rights. For example, selling, lending or otherwise disposing part or all of the house and site Grant the right to receive the repayment of the housing loan (herein referred to as the "right") on the condition that the right to receive the compensation is transferred.

  The underwriter system 10 includes at least one subsystem of the pre-assessment subsystem 20, the certificate issuing subsystem 40, and the risk management subsystem 60. The underwriter system 10 in the example of FIG. 1 includes all three subsystems. Each subsystem may have one or more computers. Underwriter system 10 may further include at least one of server 70, internal network 71, and database 74.

  The pre-assessment subsystem 20 calculates the maximum value of the monthly loan repayment amount permitted when granting the right. The pre-assessment subsystem 20 includes an allowable repayment calculation device 22. The allowable repayment calculation device 22 calculates the maximum allowable monthly repayment amount based on the future rental value of the house and the disposal value of the future house.

  The rental value of a house is a value calculated based on rent income assumed when renting a house. The disposal value of a house is a value calculated based on the sale amount assumed when the house is sold. The allowable repayment amount calculation device 22 is based on the current or past rent data of other homes recorded in the database 74 and the current or past sales amount data of other homes, etc. You may calculate

  If this right is exercised, the underwriter can obtain rent income by lending out the housing, but will pay the monthly repayment amount of the housing loan. If the monthly repayment amount is greater than the rent income, the underwriting company's monthly balance will be negative.

  In this example, the allowable repayment calculation device 22 does not exceed the future disposal value of the house by integrating the difference between the monthly repayment amount of the housing loan and the future rental value over the repayment period of the loan. Calculate the maximum allowable monthly repayment amount, subject to the conditions. The disposal value of the home may be an estimate at the time of completion of the housing loan.

  The pre-assessment subsystem 20 may provide the customer terminal 78 with the calculated maximum monthly payment amount. The customer terminal 78 is, for example, a computer managed by a financial institution, a home seller, or a general customer who is considering purchasing a home. The pre-assessment subsystem 20 may be connected to the customer terminal 78 via an external network 76 such as the Internet, a server 70 and an internal network 71. The pre-assessment subsystem 20 may receive, from the customer terminal 78, information such as the location of the house, floor area, floor plan, distance from the station, expected acquisition price, street price of the site, and actual price.

  Further, the financial value calculation system 100 may further include a partner business subsystem 80. The partner enterprise subsystem 80 is a system managed by a financial institution, a home seller, etc. who has partnered with the underwriter. The partnering operator subsystem 80 may include an allowable repayment calculation device 22 similar to the pre-assessment subsystem 20. Data of the database 74 in the underwriter's system 10 is provided to the allowable repayment calculation device 22 of the tie-up company subsystem 80. The allowable repayment calculation device 22 of the tie-up company subsystem 80 may be connectable to the internal network 71. Thereby, the allowable repayment calculation device 22 of the partner company subsystem 80 can also calculate the future rental value and the disposal value of the house with high accuracy.

  The certificate issuing subsystem 40 of this example receives the information on the house and the desired monthly repayment amount, and determines whether or not the right can be granted under the conditions. The certificate issuing subsystem 40 includes a repayment amount determination device 42. The repayment amount determination device 42 determines that the right can be granted on the condition that the integrated value obtained by integrating the difference between the monthly repayment amount of the housing loan and the future rental value does not exceed the future disposal value of the house. You may Information on the home and monthly repayment amount may be input to the repayment amount determination device 42 from the customer terminal 78 or the partner company subsystem 80.

  The certificate issuing subsystem 40 of the present example issues a certificate of the present right when the repayment amount determination device 42 determines that the present right can be granted with the monthly repayment amount. The certificate may be a document indicating the content of the right, or may be electronic data.

  The risk management subsystem 60 manages the risk of the underwriter by granting the right. The risk management subsystem 60 comprises a risk management device 62. As an example, the risk management device 62 records estimated values of the rental value and the disposal value of the house calculated at the time of grant of the right, and the actual values of the rental value and disposal value of the house after the exercise of the right. The risk management device 62 may adjust a coefficient or a setting value used for calculation in the allowable repayment amount calculation device 22 and the repayment amount determination device 42 based on the difference between the estimated value and the actual value. For example, when the risk management device 62 tends to decrease the actual value with respect to the estimated value of the rental value and the disposal value, the allowable repayment calculation device 22 calculates the estimated value of the rental value and the disposal value to be smaller. And adjust the coefficient or the set value in the repayment amount determination device 42.

  FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an outline of the operation of the underwriting carrier system 10. The horizontal axis in FIG. 2 indicates time. As an example, at the timing when a general customer considers home purchase and prepares a financial plan, the allowable repayment calculation device 22 calculates the maximum value of the allowable monthly repayment amount and presents it as reference information (S200). The allowable repayment amount calculation device 22 may provide the maximum value of the monthly repayment amount in response to a request from the customer terminal 78 or the like.

  Further, at the timing when a general customer decides to purchase a home and borrows a housing loan, the repayment amount determination device 42 determines whether or not the right can be granted under the condition of the input amount of monthly repayment (S202). The monthly repayment amount may be input from the customer terminal 78 or the partner company subsystem 80. If it is determined that the repayment amount determination device 42 can grant the right, the certificate issuing subsystem 40 issues a certificate of the right.

  When the right is exercised, the risk management device 62 records the actual value of the rental value of the house. The risk management device 62 records the actual value of the rental value of the house until the time of selling the house. The housing may be sold after the loan has been completed. The risk management device 62 records the actual value of the disposal value of the house. The risk management device 62 may adjust a coefficient or the like used for calculation in the allowable repayment amount calculation device 22 and the repayment amount determination device 42 based on the recorded actual value.

  Thus, by using the rental value and disposal value of the house, it is possible to present the maximum monthly repayment amount based on the intrinsic financial value of the house. In addition, by granting this right at the time of setting the loan, it is possible to provide a substantially non-recourse residential loan. For this reason, the uneasiness of the borrower at the time of setting the loan can be reduced. In addition, it is possible to present the financial value of housing to general customers considering home acquisition at the time of consideration, and to present appropriate monthly repayment amount. In order to accurately present and determine the monthly repayment amount, it is preferable that data is accumulated in the database 74 over a sufficient regional range and period, and updated as needed. On the condition that the rent data and the sale amount data storable in the database 74 are provided by another provider, the provider may be identified as a partner provider and data provision from the database 74 may be permitted.

  FIG. 3 is a block diagram showing an outline of the allowable repayment amount calculation device 22. As shown in FIG. The allowable repayment amount calculation device 22 includes a condition acquisition unit 24, a disposal value calculation unit 26, a rental value calculation unit 28, and a maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30. A CPU, a memory, and the like in the computer may function as the disposal value calculation unit 26, the rental value calculation unit 28, and the maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30. An interface or the like in a computer may function as the condition acquisition unit 24.

  The condition acquisition unit 24 acquires the loan conditions including the repayment period of the housing loan. Financing conditions include information on the location of the house (eg, zip code, distance from the station, etc.), information on the size of the house (eg, site area, floor area, number of rooms, etc.), and information on the useful life of the house It is good. The condition acquiring unit 24 may acquire the financing conditions input by the administrator of the allowable repayment amount calculation device 22, may acquire the financing conditions input from an external device such as the customer terminal 78, and the allowable repayment amount calculating device The loan conditions registered in advance in 22 may be acquired.

  The rental value calculation unit 28 acquires rent data of a current or past house from a rent database, and calculates an estimated value of the rental value of the house in at least a part of the repayment period. The rental value calculation unit 28 may extract rent data of current or past houses corresponding to the loan conditions from the rent database. The rental value calculation unit 28 may extract the rent data of the corresponding house from the rent database based on at least one of the information on the location of the house, the information on the size of the house, and the information on the useful life of the house .

  In the present example, the database 74 shown in FIG. 1 functions as a rent database. The rental value calculation unit 28 may calculate an estimated value of the rental value of the house in the entire repayment period. The rental value calculation unit 28 of this example calculates the estimated value of the rental value of the house on a monthly basis over the entire period within the repayment period. The estimate of the monthly rental value may be a fixed value or a variable value within the repayment period.

  The disposal value calculation unit 26 acquires data on the sales amount of the current or past housing from the sales amount database, and calculates an estimated value of the disposal value of the housing at a predetermined time in the future. The disposal value calculation unit 26 may calculate an estimated value of the disposal value of the housing at the time of completion of the housing loan. The disposal value calculation unit 26 may extract, from the sold amount database, the sold amount data of the current or past house corresponding to the loan condition. The disposal value calculation unit 26 may extract the sold amount data of the corresponding house from the sold amount database based on at least one of the information on the location of the house, the information on the size of the house and the information on the useful life of the house .

  The rent database and the sale amount database classify and record rent data and sale amount data by region. The rent database and the sold amount database may classify the rent database and the sold amount database by various characteristics of the house such as the size of the house.

  The maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30 is based on the estimated value of the rental value calculated by the rental value calculation unit 28 and the estimated value of the disposal value calculated by the disposal value calculation unit 26. Calculate the value. The maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30 calculates the maximum monthly repayment amount that the difference between the estimated value of the rental value and the monthly repayment amount in at least a part of the repayment period satisfies the estimated value of the disposal value, Calculated as the maximum monthly repayment amount. As described above, the maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30 sets the monthly repayment amount on condition that the accumulated predetermined period of the difference between the estimated value of the rental value and the monthly repayment amount does not exceed the estimated value of the disposal value. Calculate the maximum value. The maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30 may calculate the maximum value of the monthly repayment amount based on the probability that the exercise will occur in each month within the repayment period.

  FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an example of the relationship between the disposal value of a house, the rental value, the monthly repayment amount, and the difference integrated value. The horizontal axis in FIG. 4 indicates time, and the vertical axis indicates money. The disposal value calculation unit 26 may calculate the disposal value by multiplying the average value or the like of the current or past sales data by a coefficient set by a manager or the like. The disposal value may be adjusted by the risk management device 62. The disposal value calculation unit 26 may calculate estimated values of the disposal value of each of the house and the site. The disposal value of the site can be calculated based on the line value of the location of the site at the time of setting the housing loan. The disposal value calculation unit 26 may set the estimated value of the disposal value of the site as a constant value throughout the repayment period. Estimates of the disposal value of a home may change (mainly decrease) over time. The initial value of the disposal value of a house can be calculated by subtracting the disposal value of the site calculated based on the street price from the sales price of the house and the site. The secular change of the disposal value of the housing can be calculated from the current or past sales data of the housing.

  The rental value calculation unit 28 may calculate a fixed rental value throughout the repayment period, and may calculate a rental value that changes monthly. The secular change of the rental value can be calculated from the current or past rent data of the rent database. Although the monthly repayment amount is set to a constant value in the example of FIG. 4, the maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30 may set a monthly repayment amount that changes monthly. In FIG. 4, the difference between the monthly repayment amount and the rental value is indicated by oblique lines.

  The maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30 may calculate a difference integrated value obtained by integrating the monthly difference between the monthly repayment amount and the rental value. The difference integrated value becomes higher as the monthly repayment amount is set higher. The maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30 calculates the maximum value of the monthly repayment amount within a range in which the difference integrated value does not exceed the disposal value of the housing at the time of completion of the housing loan. The maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30 may calculate the difference integrated value in a predetermined period in the repayment period.

  Preferably, the maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30 calculates the maximum value of the monthly repayment amount further based on the exercise probability for each month. This makes it possible to calculate the maximum monthly repayment amount more accurately.

FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an operation example of the maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30. The same process is performed on a plurality of monthly repayment amounts X _1, X ₂ ,... Within the set range. In this example, X ₁ is taken as the minimum setting value of the monthly repayment amount. In FIG. 5, the number of each month in the repayment period of the mortgage loan is indicated by an integer of 1 to n. In this example, the monthly repayment amount in each month is fixed. The maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30 receives the estimated value Y of the rental value of the house for each month from the rental value calculation unit 28.

The maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30 calculates, for each month in the repayment period, the integrated value of the difference between the monthly repayment amount X and the rental value Y when the right is exercised in that month Do. For example, the difference integrated value σ _k in the k-th month for the monthly repayment amount X ₁ is given by the following equation.

  Based on the data recorded by the exercise probability database, the maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30 calculates the exercise probability α at which the exercise of the subject right occurs due to factors such as repayment of the loan being nonperforming in each month within the repayment period based on the data recorded by the exercise probability database. Do. In the present example, the database 74 shown in FIG. 1 functions as an exercise probability database.

  The exercise probability database includes the probability of repayment failure in other past housing loans, the probability of repayment arrears in other past housing loans, and the probability of other factors causing the exercise of this right, etc. May be recorded. The exercise probability database may record cases in which a repayment default has occurred or cases that have not occurred in association with a monthly repayment amount, a total loan amount, a repayment period, or the like. The maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30 may calculate the exercise probability based on the case corresponding to the present loan. The exercise probability database may record data for each attribute of the borrower. The maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30 may calculate the exercise probability of the right based on data corresponding to the attribute of the borrower of the present case.

Maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30 calculates monthly monthly expected risk value (corresponding to expected moment every time) α _k · σ _k multiplied by difference integrated value σ _k of each month and exercise probability α _k Do. The maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30 calculates a risk expectation value P which is the sum of the monthly risk expectation values α _k and σ _k within the repayment period. Expected risk value P for monthly repayment amount is given by the following formula.

Maximum repayment calculator 30, the risk expected value P for monthly repayment X ₁ is, determines greater or not than the estimated value of the disposal value of houses in pay off time of mortgages. Risk expected value P is equal to or smaller than the estimated value of the disposal value, the next highest month repayments X ₂ may calculate the risk expected value P. The maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30 repeats such processing until the risk expectation value P exceeds the estimated value of the disposal value, and calculates the maximum allowable monthly repayment amount. The condition acquisition unit 24 may acquire a plurality of types of repayment periods. In this case, the maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30 may calculate the maximum value of the monthly repayment amount for each repayment period. The maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30 may start processing from the largest repayment amount X, and may detect the repayment amount for which the risk expectation value P is less than or equal to the estimated value of the disposal value.

  6 to 11 are diagrams for explaining the operation example of the allowable repayment amount calculation device 22 in more detail. As shown in FIG. 6, the rental value calculation unit 28 acquires rent data from the rent database, and calculates an assumed rent (S602). As described above, the rental value calculation unit 28 acquires current or past rent data in the corresponding area or the like. The estimated rent may be calculated from the average value of the corresponding rent data.

  The rental value calculation unit 28 may be set to at least one of an assumed rent multiple, a rent upper limit, a rent lower limit, and a rent reduction set value. The estimated rent ratio is a coefficient by which the rent data to be used is multiplied. For example, if the rent data is an actual value, the assumed rent multiplying factor is a coefficient less than 1, and if the rent data is data of the minimum guaranteed rent, the assumed rent multiplying factor is a coefficient of 1 or more. The rent database may store data of current or past minimum guaranteed rents for rental housing. These coefficients may use values preset by the administrator or the like. These coefficients may be appropriately adjusted by the risk management device 62.

  The upper limit of rent and the lower limit of rent may use values predetermined by the administrator or the like. When the estimated rent calculated by the rental value calculating unit 28 is not within the set upper limit and lower limit of rent, the rental value calculating unit 28 may use the set upper limit or lower limit of rent as the estimated rent.

  The rent reduction setting value is a setting value of the annual decrease of rent during the repayment period. The rent reduction setting value may be set by a manager or the like, and may be calculated by the rental value calculation unit 28 based on current or past data recorded in the rent database.

  The rental value calculation unit 28 calculates a rent cash flow (referred to as a rent CF in the present specification) based on the calculated estimated rent (S604). The rent CF represents the expected value of rent income per month assumed when the house is put on the rental market. The rental value calculation unit 28 calculates the rent CF based on at least one of the initial recruitment period, the re-offer period and the occupancy period. The rent database may record, for rental housing, an initial recruitment period and a recruitment period (i.e., a vacant period) and an occupancy period.

  The initial recruitment period is an estimate of the period from when the house is first put on the rental market until the tenants move in. The re-offer period is an estimate of the period from the time when the resident of the relevant house leaves the house until the next resident moves in. The moving-in period is an estimated value of the period from the moving-in of the resident to the relevant housing until the moving-out. These estimated values may be calculated by the rental value calculation unit 28 based on current or past data of the rent database. An addition value may be set in these periods. The manager or the like may set the addition value, and the risk management device 62 may adjust it. When the added value is set, the rental value calculation unit 28 uses a period in which the added value is added to the estimated value.

  Based on these periods, the rental value calculation unit 28 calculates the ratio of the period in which the rent income can be obtained from the house and the period in which the rent income can not be obtained. The rental value calculation unit 28 may calculate the rent CF by multiplying the ratio by the estimated rent.

  FIG. 7 is a diagram showing an example of calculation of the expense cash flow (referred to as an expense CF in this specification) of the house after the exercise of the right. Expense CF represents the expected value per month of expenses required to maintain the house during the period from the exercise of the right to the sale of the house. The rental value calculation unit 28 may calculate the expense CF.

  The expense rate may be set in the rental value calculation unit 28. The rental value calculation unit 28 calculates expenses such as management expenses by multiplying the estimated rent calculated in S602 by the expense ratio. The expense rate may be set by a manager or the like, and may be adjusted by the risk management device 62.

  The rental value calculation unit 28 may be set with data for calculating a property tax to be imposed on a house, a site, and other depreciable assets. The data includes set values such as tax assessment value of land and buildings, fixed asset tax rate, evaluation value of depreciable asset, etc., reduction rate of fixed asset tax, mitigation period, etc. These data may be set by a manager or the like, and may be input from a terminal such as a customer based on the information of the house. The rental value calculation unit 28 calculates the expense CF based on these data (S702).

  FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an example of calculation of the net operation cash flow of the house (referred to as a net operation CF in this specification) after the exercise of the right. The net investment CF represents the expected value of profit per month obtained by subtracting the expected value of expenses from the expected value of rent income of the house in the period from the exercise of the right to the sale of the home. The rental value calculation unit 28 of this example calculates the net operation CF by subtracting the expense CF (A2) from the rent CF (A1) (S802). The rental value calculation unit 28 may input the net operation CF to the maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30 as an estimated value of the rental value of the house.

  FIG. 9 is a diagram showing an example of processing in the difference integrated value calculation module. The difference integrated value calculation module is a part of the processing module in the maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30. The difference integrated value calculation module calculates the difference integrated value of the present month based on the estimated value A3 of the rental value of the house (that is, the net operation CF). The difference integrated value of the present month corresponds to the difference integrated value of each month shown in FIG.

  The difference integrated value calculation module of this example obtains the set values including the start month and the monthly repayment amount of the calculation. The start month is a month selected one after another within the repayment period. The start month corresponds to the time or number shown in FIG. The setting value of the monthly repayment amount may be a setting value selected from within the setting range of the monthly repayment amount. Further, the difference integrated value calculation module may obtain calculated interest rate data.

  The difference integrated value calculation module sequentially performs the processing from S902 to S910 shown in FIG. 9 for all the months from the set start month to the end month of the loan period. The difference integrated value calculation module sequentially selects each month from the set start month to the end month of the loan period (S902). The difference integrated value calculation module calculates a net cash flow (net CF) (S904). The net CF is the expected value of the operating profit of the house in the month selected in S902. The difference integrated value calculation module of this example calculates a net CF by subtracting the monthly repayment amount from the net operation CF.

  The difference integrated value calculation module calculates a net cash flow future value (net CF future value) (S906). The net CF future value is a value obtained by multiplying the net CF in the month selected in S902 by the interest rate set and the compound interest until the loan completion.

  The difference integrated value calculation module adds the net CF future value newly calculated in S906 to the total value of the net CF future value up to the previous month (S908). The difference integrated value calculation module repeats the process from S902 until the process is completed for all the months from the start month to the end month (S910).

  The difference integrated value calculation module repeats the processing from S902 to S910 for all the months from the start month to the end month, and as a result, adds up the difference obtained in S908 to the difference integration of the current month (that is, the set start month). Output as a value (S912). In the process shown in FIG. 9, setting of the start month is sequentially set for each month of the loan period, so that it is possible to calculate a difference integrated value for each month within the loan period.

  FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of processing in the risk expectation value calculation module. The risk expectation value calculation module is a part of the processing module in the maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30. The risk expectation value calculation module sequentially performs the processing from S1002 to S1010 for all the months from the start month to the end month of the loan period.

  The risk expectation value calculation module sequentially selects each month from the start month to the end month of the loan period (S1002). In the example of FIG. 10, the month selected in S1002 is referred to as the current month. The expected risk value calculation module acquires the difference integrated value calculated by the difference integrated value calculation module described in FIG. 9 for the current month (S1004). The risk expectation value calculation module calculates the risk expectation value for the current month (S1006). In this example, the current month expected risk value is a value obtained by multiplying the difference integrated value of the current month by the exercise probability of the right in the current month. This month's risk expectation value corresponds to the monthly expectation value shown in FIG.

  The risk expectation value calculation module calculates the risk expectation value by adding the current month risk expectation value to the integrated value of the current month risk expectation value up to the previous month (S1008). The risk expectation value calculation module repeats the process from S1002 until the process is completed for all the months from the start month to the end month of the loan period (SS1010).

  The risk expectation value calculation module outputs the integrated value obtained in S1008 as the risk expectation value P as a result of repeating the processing from S1002 to S1010 for all the months from the start month to the end month of the loan period S1012). In the processes shown in FIGS. 9 and 10, by sequentially changing the setting of the monthly repayment amount, it is possible to calculate the expected risk value for each monthly repayment amount.

  FIG. 11 is a diagram illustrating an example of processing of the maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30. The maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30 receives the estimated value of the rental value from the rental value calculation unit 28, and receives the estimated value of the disposal value from the disposal value calculation unit 26. Moreover, the initial value, the decrease value, and the minimum value of the monthly repayment amount are input to the maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30 of this example.

  The maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30 sequentially performs the processing from S1104 to S1110 on each monthly repayment amount from the initial value to the minimum value of the monthly repayment amount. The maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30 sequentially sets monthly repayment amounts sequentially decreased by a predetermined decrease value in the range from the initial value to the minimum value of the monthly repayment amount (S1104).

  The maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30 calculates the risk expectation value P using the risk expectation value calculation module for the monthly repayment amount selected in S1104 (S1106). The maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30 determines whether the risk expectation value exceeds the disposal value of the house (S1108). If the risk expectation value exceeds the disposal value of the house, the process from S1104 is repeated (S1110).

  In S1108, when the expected risk value falls below the disposal value of the house, the maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30 sets the monthly repayment amount set in the loop as the maximum allowable monthly repayment amount (S1114). ). That is, the maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30 selects the maximum value of the monthly repayment amount under the condition that the risk expectation value P does not exceed the disposal value of the house.

  When the processing from S1104 to S1110 is completed up to the minimum value of the monthly repayment amount while the risk expectation value exceeds the disposal value of the house in S1108, the maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30 determines that the monthly repayment amount is within the range It is determined that the right is underwriting impossible (S1112). The maximum repayment amount calculation unit 30 may record the results of S1112 and S1114 in the assessment table 32. The assessment table 32 may be recorded in the database 74 and may be stored in the internal memory of the pre-assessment subsystem 20. The assessment table 32 may record the allowable monthly repayment amount, data on the location of the house, associated rent data, associated sale amount data, estimated value for acquiring the house, site price, and the like in association with each other.

  FIG. 12 is a block diagram showing an overview of the repayment amount determination device 42. As shown in FIG. The amount-of-repayment determination device 42 determines whether or not the subject granting is permitted with the desired monthly repayment amount input in the housing loan. The repayment amount determination device 42 includes a condition acquisition unit 44, a disposal value calculation unit 26, a rental value calculation unit 28, and a repayment amount determination unit 50. A CPU, a memory, and the like in the computer may function as the disposal value calculation unit 26, the rental value calculation unit 28, and the repayment amount determination unit 50. An interface or the like in a computer may function as the condition acquisition unit 44.

  The condition acquisition unit 44 acquires the loan conditions including the repayment period of the housing loan and the desired monthly repayment amount. The monthly repayment amount may be input from the customer terminal 78 or the partner company subsystem 80, and may be directly input to the repayment amount determination device 42 by the administrator of the repayment amount determination device 42 or the like. The financing conditions acquired by the condition acquiring unit 44 are the same as the financing conditions acquired by the condition acquiring unit 24 described in FIG. 3. The disposal value calculation unit 26 and the rental value calculation unit 28 have the same functions as the disposal value calculation unit 26 and the rental value calculation unit 28 described in FIG. 3.

  The repayment amount determination unit 50 allows the input monthly repayment amount based on the estimated value of the rental value calculated by the rental value calculation unit 28 and the estimated value of the disposal value calculated by the disposal value calculation unit 26. It is determined whether or not. The repayment amount determination unit 50 determines whether the difference between the estimated value of the rental value and the monthly repayment amount in at least a part of the repayment period satisfies the condition according to the estimated value of the disposal value. Determine whether monthly repayment amount is acceptable.

  FIG. 13 is a diagram illustrating an example of processing of the repayment amount determination unit 50. The repayment amount determination unit 50 inputs the estimated value of the rental value, the estimated value of the disposal value, and the monthly repayment amount into the risk expectation value calculation module to calculate the risk expectation value P for the monthly repayment amount (S1302). The risk expectation value calculation module is similar to the risk expectation value calculation module described in FIG. The allowable repayment calculation device 22 and the repayment determination device 42 may share a risk expectation value calculation module. The allowable repayment amount calculation device 22 and the repayment amount determination device 42 may be the same computer.

  The repayment amount determination unit 50 determines whether the risk expectation value P exceeds the estimated value of the disposal value of the house (S1304). If the risk expectation value P exceeds the disposal value of the house, the repayment amount determination unit 50 determines that the present right can not be granted with the monthly repayment amount (S1306). That is, they refuse to accept loan repayment.

  If the risk expectation value P is equal to or less than the disposal value of the house, the repayment amount determination unit 50 determines that the present right can be provided with the monthly repayment amount (S1308). That is, it accepts acceptance of loan repayment.

  When acceptance of loan repayment is permitted, the repayment amount determination unit 50 registers that in the right table 52. The rights table 52 may be recorded in the database 74 and may be recorded in the internal memory of the certificate issuing subsystem 40. The right table 52 may store the set monthly repayment amount, data on the location of the house, associated rent data, associated sale amount data, the planned price for acquiring a house, the site price, and the like in association with each other. If the repayment amount determination unit 50 permits the grant of the subject right, the certificate issuing subsystem 40 outputs a certificate or the like indicating the content of the subject right (S1310).

  FIG. 14 is a diagram showing an operation example of the risk management device 62 at the time of exercise of the subject right. The risk management device 62 identifies the right holder ID of the right holder of the right (ie, the borrower of the mortgage loan to which the right is granted), the exercise date when the right holder exercised the right, and the right holder Acquire information such as a right ID identifying the right. The right holder of the right may input the information via the customer terminal 78 or the like, or the manager of the risk management device 62 may directly input the information to the risk management device 62.

  The risk management device 62 acquires the content of the corresponding right from the right table 52. The risk management device 62 may extract the corresponding content of the right from the right holder ID or the right ID.

  The risk management device 62 creates a new record in the risk management table 72. The record may include information acquired from the rights table 52, information such as the right holder ID and the exercise date. The risk management device 62 uses the net operation CF calculation module described in FIG. 8 to calculate the net operation CF from the time of exercise of the right to the time of loan completion (S1402).

  The risk management device 62 records the calculated net operation CF in the cash flow table 75. The risk management device 62 associates the rights holder ID, the predicted value or the actual value of the net management CF (the classification in this example is the prediction value), the balance receipt and payment scheduled date, and the balance The type (for example, the type of rent, management cost, tax, etc.), the expected balance of payments, etc. are recorded in the cash flow table 75. The records of the cash flow table 75 are associated with the records of the risk management table 72.

  FIG. 15 is a diagram showing an operation example of the risk management device 62 when cash flow occurs after the exercise of the right. That is, an operation example of the risk management device 62 in the case where income or payment occurs in the underwriter for the present home is shown.

  The risk management device 62 reads a record corresponding to the right from the risk management table 72 based on the right holder ID and the like, and reads a record corresponding to the record from the cash flow table 75. The risk management device 62 records information on the generated cash flow in the corresponding record of the cash flow table 75. Information on cash flow includes classification of whether the cash flow is an expected value or an actual value (the classification in this example is an actual value), receipt and payment dates of payments, types of payments, actual amounts of payments, and the like. The risk management device 62 may adjust each coefficient or set value in the disposal value calculation unit 26 and the rental value calculation unit 28 based on the difference between the cash flow forecast value and the actual value.

  FIG. 16 is a diagram showing an example of calculation of break even month by the risk management device 62. The break even month refers to the month immediately after the exercise of the right, when the difference integrated value σ exceeds the estimated value of the disposal value of the house.

  The risk management device 62 reads the corresponding record from the risk management table 72 and the cash flow table 75 based on the right holder ID and the like. The risk management device 62 sequentially selects each month until the final month of loan repayment from the next month of the final actual month when the balance such as rent income actually occurs (S1602).

  The risk management device 62 calculates a net operation CF after the month selected in S1602 (S1604). The risk management device 62 may have the net operation CF calculation module described in FIG. Next, the risk management device 62 calculates a difference integrated value with the month selected in S1602 as the start month (S1606). The risk management device 62 may have the integrated difference value calculation module described in FIG.

  The risk management device 62 calculates an estimated value of the disposal value of the house in the month selected in S1602 (S1608). The risk management device 62 may have the disposal value calculator 26.

  The risk management device 62 determines whether or not the difference integrated value reaches the disposal value for the first time (S1610). If the difference integrated value is equal to or greater than the disposal value for the first time, the previous month of the month selected in S1602 is set as a break even month (S1612). Otherwise, do not set breakeven months. The risk management device 62 repeats the process from S1602 until the process for the final repayment month is completed (S1614).

  The risk management device 62 may record the break even month in the risk management table 72. Further, the risk management device 62 may present the break even month to the manager of the risk management device 62 or the like. The manager etc. can consider the sale time of the house based on the break even month. The risk management device 62 may record information such as the net operation CF calculated for each month, the difference integrated value, and the disposal value of each month in the cash flow table 75.

  FIG. 17 is a diagram illustrating an example of the risk management process of the risk management device 62. The risk management device 62 specifies the subject right to be subjected to risk management based on the right holder ID and the like. The risk management device 62 extracts a record corresponding to the right from the risk management table 72 and the cash flow table 75. The risk management device 62 may present, to the administrator, some or all of the information included in the extracted record as risk information.

  FIG. 18 shows an example of a computer 1800 in which aspects of the present invention may be fully or partially embodied. The program installed in the computer 1800 causes the computer 1800 to function as one or more "sections" or modules of the apparatus according to the embodiment of the present invention, or each process according to the embodiment of the present invention in the computer 1800. Or you can run the calculation. Such programs may be executed by CPU 1812 to cause computer 1800 to perform particular processing associated with some or all of the blocks in the flowcharts and block diagrams described herein.

  The computer 1800 according to the present embodiment includes a CPU 1812, a RAM 1814, a graphic controller 1816, and a display device 1818, which are mutually connected by a host controller 1810. The computer 1800 also includes an I / O unit such as a communication interface 1822, a hard disk drive 1824, a DVD-ROM drive 1826, and an IC card drive, which are connected to the host controller 1810 via the I / O controller 1820. The computer also includes legacy I / O units such as a ROM 1830 and a keyboard 1842 which are connected to the I / O controller 1820 via an I / O chip 1840.

  The CPU 1812 operates in accordance with programs stored in the ROM 1830 and the RAM 1814 to control each unit. The graphic controller 1816 obtains image data generated by the CPU 1812 in a frame buffer or the like provided in the RAM 1814 or the graphic controller 1816 itself, and causes the image data to be displayed on the display device 1818.

  Communication interface 1822 communicates with other electronic devices via a network. A hard disk drive 1824 stores programs and data used by the CPU 1812 in the computer 1800. The DVD-ROM drive 1826 reads a program or data from the DVD-ROM 1801 and provides the hard disk drive 1824 with the program or data via the RAM 1814. The IC card drive reads programs and data from the IC card and / or writes programs and data to the IC card.

  The ROM 1830 internally stores a boot program or the like executed by the computer 1800 upon activation, and / or a program dependent on the hardware of the computer 1800. The I / O chip 1840 may also connect various I / O units to the I / O controller 1820 via parallel ports, serial ports, keyboard ports, mouse ports, etc.

  The program is provided by a computer readable storage medium such as a DVD-ROM 1801 or an IC card. The program is read from a computer readable storage medium, installed in a hard disk drive 1824, a RAM 1814 or a ROM 1830, which is also an example of a computer readable storage medium, and executed by the CPU 1812. Information processing described in these programs is read by the computer 1800 and brings about coordination between the programs and the various types of hardware resources. An apparatus or method may be configured by implementing the operation or processing of information in accordance with the use of computer 1800.

  For example, when communication is executed between the computer 1800 and an external device, the CPU 1812 executes the communication program loaded in the RAM 1814, and performs communication processing to the communication interface 1822 based on the processing described in the communication program. You may order. The communication interface 1822 reads transmission data stored in a transmission buffer area provided in a recording medium such as the RAM 1814, the hard disk drive 1824, the DVD-ROM 1801, or an IC card under the control of the CPU 1812 and the read transmission The data is transmitted to the network, or the received data received from the network is written to a reception buffer area or the like provided on the recording medium.

  In addition, the CPU 1812 causes the RAM 1814 to read all or necessary portions of files or databases stored in an external recording medium such as the hard disk drive 1824, the DVD-ROM drive 1826 (DVD-ROM 1801), an IC card, etc. Various types of processing may be performed on the data on RAM 1814. The CPU 1812 may then write back the processed data to the external storage medium.

  Various types of information, such as various types of programs, data, tables, and databases, may be stored on the recording medium to be processed. The CPU 1812 describes various types of operations, information processing, condition judgment, conditional branching, unconditional branching, information retrieval, which are described throughout the present disclosure and specified by a program instruction sequence for data read from the RAM 1814. Various types of processing may be performed, including / replacement, etc., and the results written back to RAM 1814. In addition, the CPU 1812 may search for information in a file in a recording medium, a database, and the like.

  The program or software module according to the above description may be stored in a computer readable storage medium on or near computer 1800. In addition, a recording medium such as a hard disk or a RAM provided in a server system connected to a dedicated communication network or the Internet can be used as a computer readable storage medium, whereby the program can be transmitted to the computer 1800 via the network. provide.

  As mentioned above, although this invention was demonstrated using embodiment, the technical scope of this invention is not limited to the range as described in the said embodiment. It is apparent to those skilled in the art that various changes or modifications can be added to the above embodiment. It is also apparent from the scope of the claims that the embodiments added with such alterations or improvements can be included in the technical scope of the present invention.

  The execution order of each process such as operations, procedures, steps, and steps in the apparatuses, systems, programs, and methods shown in the claims, the specification, and the drawings is particularly “before”, “preceding” It is to be noted that “it is not explicitly stated as“ etc. ”and can be realized in any order as long as the output of the previous process is not used in the later process. With regard to the flow of operations in the claims, the specification and the drawings, even if it is described using “first,” “next,” etc. for convenience, it means that it is essential to carry out in this order. It is not a thing.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 10 ... Underwriting company system, 20 ... Prior assessment subsystem, 22 ... Allowable repayment amount calculation apparatus, 24 ... Condition acquisition part, 26 ... Disposal value calculation part, 28 ... Rental Value calculation unit, 30 ... maximum repayment amount calculation unit, 32 ... assessment table, 40 ... certificate issuing subsystem, 42 ... repayment amount determination device, 44 ... condition acquisition unit, 50 · · Repayment amount judgment unit, 52 · · · Rights table, 60 · · · Risk management subsystem, 62 · · · Risk management device, 70 · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · internal network, 72 ... risk management Table 74: database 75: cash flow table 76: external network 78: customer terminal 80: affiliate business subsystem 100: financial value calculation system 18 0 ... computer, 1801 ... DVD-ROM, 1810 ... host controller, 1812 ... CPU, 1814 ... RAM, 1816 ... graphic controller, 1818 ... display device, 1820 ...・ I / O controller, 1822 ... communication interface, 1824 ... hard disk drive, 1826 ... DVD-ROM drive, 1830 ... ROM, 1840 ... I / O chip, 1842 ... keyboard

Claims (12)

An allowable repayment amount calculation device for calculating the maximum value of the monthly repayment amount permitted in a housing loan,
A condition acquisition unit that acquires loan conditions including a loan repayment period,
A rental value calculation unit which obtains current or past rent data of a house from a rent database and calculates an estimated value of the rental value of the house in at least a part of the repayment period;
Disposal value calculation unit for acquiring present or past sales data of houses from the sales database and calculating an estimated value of disposal values of the houses at a predetermined time in the future,
And a maximum repayment amount calculation unit configured to calculate a maximum value of the monthly repayment amount permitted in the housing loan based on the estimated value of the rental value and the estimated value of the disposal value. The maximum repayment amount calculation unit is configured such that the difference between the estimated value of the rental value and the monthly repayment amount in at least a part of the repayment period satisfies the condition according to the estimated value of the disposal value. The allowable repayment calculation device according to claim 1, wherein the repayment amount is calculated as the maximum value of the monthly repayment amount. The allowable repayment amount calculation device according to claim 2, wherein the disposal value calculation unit calculates an estimated value of the disposal value of the house at the time of completion of the housing loan. The maximum repayment amount calculation unit is a probability of exercising the right to have at least a part of the housing and the site transferred to the underwriting company, which is a third party, to have the home loan be repaid. The allowable repayment amount calculation device according to claim 2 or 3, wherein the maximum value of the monthly repayment amount is calculated based on the above. The maximum repayment amount calculation unit
An expected value for each time point is calculated by multiplying, for each time point within the repayment period, the integrated value of the difference between the estimated value of the rental value and the monthly repayment amount thereafter and the exercise probability at that time point;
The allowable repayment according to claim 4, wherein the maximum monthly repayment amount within a range where the risk expectation value which is the sum of time-based expected values does not exceed the estimated value of the disposal value is calculated as the maximum value of the monthly repayment amount. Amount calculator. The condition acquisition unit acquires a plurality of types of the repayment period,
The allowable repayment amount calculation device according to any one of claims 1 to 5, wherein the maximum repayment amount calculation unit calculates the maximum value of the monthly repayment amount for each of the repayment periods. The allowable repayment calculation device according to any one of claims 1 to 6, wherein the rent data includes data of at least one of a current or past minimum guaranteed rent, a vacancy period, and an occupancy period for a rental housing. The rent database and the sale amount database classify and record data by region,
The allowable repayment amount calculation device according to any one of claims 1 to 7, wherein the rental value calculation unit and the disposal value calculation unit acquire the rent data and the sales amount data of the corresponding area. A repayment amount determination device that determines whether or not an input monthly repayment amount is acceptable in a housing loan,
A condition acquisition unit that acquires loan conditions including a loan repayment period,
A rental value calculation unit which obtains current or past rent data of a house from a rent database and calculates an estimated value of the rental value of the house in at least a part of the repayment period;
Disposal value calculation unit for acquiring present or past sales data of houses from the sales database and calculating an estimated value of disposal values of the houses at a predetermined time in the future,
A repayment amount determination unit that determines whether the input monthly repayment amount is acceptable based on the estimated value of the rental value and the estimated value of the disposal value.   A financial value calculation system comprising at least one of the allowable repayment amount calculation device according to any one of claims 1 to 8 and the repayment amount determination device according to claim 9.   A program for causing a computer to function as an allowable repayment calculation device according to any one of claims 1 to 8.   A program for causing a computer to function as the repayment amount determination device according to claim 9.

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