JP2019035722A - Earthquake warning device, earthquake warning system, and computer program - Google Patents

Abstract

To predict an earthquake from an atmospheric pressure.SOLUTION: A communication terminal 40 and a barometer network 80 measure an atmospheric pressure, and transmit it to an analysis server 10. An atmospheric pressure data collecting function 26 of the analysis server 10 converts a received atmospheric pressure value into a sea level atmospheric pressure, and stores it as atmospheric distribution data 18B in a storage device 18. A risk determining function 28 calculates a long-term atmospheric pressure variation gradient (ΔP/Δd) and an atmospheric pressure variation amount (ΔP) in a first period and a short-term atmospheric pressure variation gradient (ΔP/Δh) and an atmospheric pressure variation amount (ΔP) in a second period shorter than the first period by referring to the atmospheric pressure distribution data 18B, and determines earthquake possibility. The analysis server 10 transmits a determination result to the communication terminal 40 of an inquiry source, and multicast-transmits an attention determination result and a caution determination result to the communication terminal located in an attention region.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

  The present invention relates to an earthquake alarm device, an earthquake alarm system, and a computer program for notifying an earthquake possibility before the occurrence.

  There is a demand for a system that can predict the occurrence of an earthquake of a predetermined magnitude or more, for example, an earthquake having a seismic intensity of 5 or more with high accuracy, and warn the residents in the target area immediately before the occurrence.

  Patent Document 1 describes a technology for accurately distributing and arranging GPS stations in an area including a target area, and predicting an earthquake occurrence time and an epicenter from three-dimensional position information measured by these GPS stations according to a predetermined calculation. Has been.

  Patent Document 2 describes a technology that measures the geomagnetic variation in the assumed source region X for a subduction earthquake and warns the occurrence of an earthquake when the geomagnetic total magnetic force variation value in the assumed source region X exceeds a predetermined reference value. Yes. In this technology, the seismic source and the seismic magnitude are obtained by utilizing the fact that the total magnetic fluctuation value at each observation point in the seismic region is inversely proportional to the distance from the seismic source causing the magnetic fluctuation to each observation point. As a result, the location of the submarine earthquake, the earthquake magnitude and the predicted occurrence time are warned with a margin of 10 minutes.

  Patent Document 3 describes a technique for predicting the possibility of an earthquake from a change in electromagnetic noise as a sign of the occurrence of an earthquake. That is, the communication environment of the wireless communication between the wireless communication base station that communicates with an existing wireless telephone terminal or wireless tag and the terminal station is continuously monitored, and the communication environment is deteriorated in a specific period of one week or more. Accordingly, the vicinity of the wireless communication base station where the deterioration is detected is determined as an earthquake-prone area.

JP 2014-092454 A JP, 2014-174128, A JP2013-064611A

  A system that can detect the occurrence of an earthquake with higher accuracy and notify the residents in advance is desired.

  In the conventional technique, it is necessary to place a large number of expensive measuring instruments throughout the country and perform fixed-point observation, resulting in an expensive system. Moreover, since the measurement values of minute or weak values such as terrain movement, geomagnetism, and electromagnetic noise are used, there is a difficulty in earthquake prediction accuracy.

  Therefore, the present invention provides an earthquake warning device, an earthquake warning system, and a computer program that can be constructed at low cost and that can easily inform the residents of the possibility of a major earthquake and the extent of the earthquake. Objective.

  The earthquake alarm device according to the present invention includes an atmospheric pressure detection means, a conversion means for converting the atmospheric pressure value detected by the atmospheric pressure detection means into an atmospheric pressure value, and an atmospheric pressure value of the sea surface pressure converted by the conversion means. Calculating a long-term pressure fluctuation gradient indicating the difference in the atmospheric pressure value in the first time difference for the first period from the storage means for accumulating and storing for a predetermined period or more and the atmospheric pressure value accumulated and stored in the storage means, A calculating means for calculating a short-term pressure fluctuation gradient indicating a difference in the atmospheric pressure value in a second time difference shorter than the first time difference for a second period shorter than the first period; a long-term gradient threshold value of the long-term pressure fluctuation gradient; The judgment means for judging the possibility of earthquake and the judgment result of the judgment means by the caution judgment condition including the comparison of the short-term pressure fluctuation gradient and the warning judgment condition including the comparison with the short-term slope threshold value And an outputting means for force.

  The earthquake warning system according to the present invention collects atmospheric pressure values measured at various locations, converts them into sea level atmospheric pressure values and stores them in the storage means, and stores the memory for each designated area. A server having a risk determination function for determining the possibility of an earthquake based on the pressure value of the sea level pressure stored in the means, and one or more of receiving a determination result of the possibility of an earthquake from the server and notifying the user A long-term atmospheric pressure indicating a difference in the atmospheric pressure value in a first time difference for the first period from the atmospheric pressure value accumulated and stored in the storage means, the earthquake warning system having a communication terminal Calculation means for calculating a fluctuation gradient and calculating a short-term atmospheric pressure fluctuation gradient indicating a difference in the atmospheric pressure value in a second time difference shorter than the first time difference for the second period shorter than the first period. A determination means for determining the possibility of an earthquake according to a warning determination condition including a comparison with the long-term gradient threshold of the long-term pressure fluctuation gradient and a warning determination condition including a comparison with the short-term gradient threshold of the short-term pressure fluctuation gradient. It is characterized by that.

  A computer program according to the present invention is a computer program for determining the possibility of an earthquake from time variation of an atmospheric pressure value, wherein the computer is configured to detect the atmospheric pressure value at a first time difference from the atmospheric pressure value within a predetermined period for a first period. A long-term pressure fluctuation gradient indicating a difference between the pressure values, and a short-term pressure fluctuation gradient indicating a difference between the pressure values in a second time difference shorter than the first time difference for a second period shorter than the first period. As a judgment means for judging the possibility of an earthquake based on a warning judgment condition including a comparison with a short-term slope threshold value of the short-term pressure fluctuation gradient and a short-term slope threshold value of the short-term pressure fluctuation slope It is a computer program for operating.

  According to the present invention, it is possible to capture signs immediately before the occurrence of a major earthquake and present cautions and warnings to residents with a margin for evacuation, thereby reducing human damage due to the earthquake.

It is a schematic block diagram of an embodiment of an earthquake warning system according to the present invention. It is an operation | movement flowchart of the atmospheric pressure data collection by an analysis server. It is an operation | movement flowchart of a communication terminal. It is an operation | movement flowchart of the risk determination with respect to the inquiry in an analysis server, and determination result transmission. It is an operation | movement flowchart of the risk determination function in an analysis server. It is a graph which shows the sea level pressure change in the case of the Sanriku-oki earthquake of March 9, 2011, and the March 11, 2011 Tohoku-Pacific Ocean Earthquake. It is a graph which shows sea level pressure change of a little less than one day before and after the Tohoku-Pacific Ocean Earthquake. It is a graph which shows the relationship between long-term atmospheric pressure fluctuation gradient (DELTA) P / (DELTA) d with respect to a typical earthquake, and the atmospheric | air pressure fluctuation amount in 21 days just before an earthquake. It is a graph which shows the relationship between short-term atmospheric pressure fluctuation gradient (DELTA) P / (DELTA) h with respect to a typical earthquake, and the atmospheric | air pressure fluctuation amount in 48 hours just before an earthquake. FIG. 9 is a result of examining the elapsed days ΔD from the time when the condition of the broken line range in FIG. It is the result of investigating the number of elapsed times ΔH from the time the broken line range in FIG. FIG. 10 is a schematic block diagram of a fourth embodiment. 10 is an operation flowchart of a risk determination function according to the fourth embodiment. FIG. 10 is a schematic block diagram of a fifth embodiment.

  The inventors of the present application focused on atmospheric pressure fluctuations as a factor inducing earthquakes, and as a result of examining the relationship between atmospheric pressure fluctuations for past earthquakes, they found that atmospheric pressure fluctuations can be used as a leading indicator of earthquake occurrence. . In addition, as many earthquakes are examined, the time until a large atmospheric pressure change triggers an earthquake is expected to be 2 to 3 weeks at the most, and decisive atmospheric pressure fluctuations occur about 2 days before the earthquake. I understood. The former can be used for alerting against earthquakes, and the latter can be used for evacuation preparation. In other words, in order to be able to inform residents about the earthquake / warning at an appropriate time, for example, it is assumed that attention is expected to be about 2 to 3 weeks at most, and that warning is about 2 days at most. We searched for elements and values that could determine the risk of earthquakes.

  FIG. 6 shows sea level pressure fluctuations from March 8 to March 9 in Sendai, Ofunato, Ishinomaki, and Miyako. The Sanriku-oki Earthquake (M7.3) occurred at 11:45 on March 9, 2011, and the Tohoku-Pacific Ocean Earthquake (M9.0) occurred at 14:46 on March 11. The sea level pressure is converted from the pressure measured every 10 minutes at a predetermined weather station. The horizontal axis shows from 3 am on March 8 to 21:00 pm on March 11, and the vertical axis shows the sea level pressure (hPa). A low pressure passes along the high pressure, and the Sanriku-oki earthquake (M7.3) occurs during the low-pressure pass, and the Tohoku-Pacific Ocean Earthquake (M9.0) occurs after the passage. Looking at the pressure fluctuations in Ishinomaki, the sea level pressure dropped by 4.7 (hPa) in 4.3 hours just before the Sanriku-oki earthquake, and just before the Tohoku-Pacific Ocean Earthquake (M9.0), The sea level air pressure decreased by 3.6 (hPa) during 4.2 hours.

  FIG. 7 shows sea level pressure fluctuations on March 11th. The horizontal axis indicates the time from 0:10 am on March 8 to 0:10 am on March 11, and the vertical axis indicates the sea level pressure (hPa). In Sendai and Ishinomaki, close to the epicenter, an earthquake occurred just after the valley of pressure. On the other hand, in the Ofunato / Hachinohe area, which is relatively far from the epicenter, a valley of atmospheric pressure appears earlier, and in Isogo, a valley of atmospheric pressure appears later. It is expected that the amount of fluctuation per hour (atmospheric pressure fluctuation gradient) is preferable as the preceding index of earthquake, rather than the valley or fluctuation amount of atmospheric pressure. It can also be seen that the pressure valley itself is meaningless because it is too late for earthquake judgment.

  The inventors investigated short-term atmospheric pressure fluctuation gradients and long-term atmospheric pressure fluctuation gradients with respect to past large earthquakes so that minute instantaneous fluctuations can be ignored. Specifically, the difference ΔP / Δh between the sea level pressure at a certain time t and the sea level pressure one hour before that time t was adopted as the short-term pressure fluctuation gradient. Similarly, the difference ΔP / Δd between the sea level pressure at a certain time t and the sea level pressure 24 hours before that time t was adopted as the long-term pressure fluctuation gradient. These short-term and long-term atmospheric pressure fluctuation gradients can also be calculated from the results of filtering the time variation of the sea level atmospheric pressure with digital low-pass filters having different cutoff frequencies.

  For earthquakes with seismic intensity of 6 or less or magnitude M6 or more (specifically, the Nagano-ken Seibu Earthquake, Hyogoken-Nanbu Earthquake, Tokachi-oki Earthquake, Tohoku-Pacific Ocean Earthquake, and Kumamoto Earthquake) The maximum value of / Δd for 21 days immediately before the earthquake was examined, and the maximum value of the hourly sea level pressure fluctuation gradient ΔP / Δh for 48 hours immediately before the earthquake was investigated. FIG. 8 and FIG. 9 show the relationship with the immediately preceding sea level pressure fluctuation amount (difference between the maximum value and the minimum value) ΔP (hPa), and FIG. 10 and FIG. 11 show the relationship with the number of days / hours until the actual earthquake. .

  FIG. 8 shows the maximum value of the sea level air pressure fluctuation gradient ΔP / Δd for 21 days immediately before the earthquake, and the horizontal axis represents the sea level air pressure fluctuation amount (difference between the maximum value and the minimum value) ΔP (hPa ). FIG. 9 shows the maximum value of the sea level pressure fluctuation amount ΔP / Δh in 48 hours immediately before the earthquake, and the horizontal axis shows the sea level pressure fluctuation amount (difference between the maximum value and the minimum value) ΔP ( hPa). Hereinafter, the fluctuation gradients ΔP / Δd and ΔP / Δh mean maximum values within a specified period.

  FIG. 10 shows the results for the daily sea level pressure fluctuation gradient ΔP / Δd. The horizontal axis indicates the number of days until the time ΔP / Δd> 4 before the occurrence of the earthquake, and the vertical axis indicates ΔP / Δd. Indicates. FIG. 11 shows the results for an hourly sea level pressure fluctuation gradient ΔP / Δh. The horizontal axis indicates the number of hours until the time satisfying ΔP / Δh> 0.4 before the occurrence of the earthquake. The axis indicates ΔP / Δh.

  From FIG. 8, it can be seen that when ΔP / Δd> 4 is satisfied, the possibility of a large earthquake is high. From FIG. 10, from the fourth day to the 17th day after the judgment formula ΔP / Δd> 4 becomes true. It can be seen that an earthquake occurred in the meantime. Therefore, ΔP / Δd> 4 can be used for the judgment of earthquake attention. From FIG. 8, by adding ΔP> 10 to the determination condition. It turns out that the judgment of the earthquake attention can be narrowed down. From FIG. 10, it should be noted about 21 days in anticipation of safety. That is, the attention determination result may be retained for about 21 days.

  In addition, FIG. 9 shows that the possibility of an earthquake is high when ΔP / Δh> 0.4 is satisfied, and FIG. 11 shows that ΔP / Δh> 0.4 is true for 15 hours or more. As time passes, it can be seen that an earthquake has occurred. Since an earthquake is imminent, it is preferable to set the determination condition for ΔP / Δh to ΔP / Δh> 0.3 and set the evacuation preparation time from the caution determination to about 12 hours in order to avoid flying. From FIG. 9, it can be seen that the determination of earthquake alert can be narrowed down by adding ΔP> 2 to the determination condition. From FIG. 11, it can be seen that if the earthquake does not occur even after 48 hours from the warning determination, the warning may be released. Therefore, the warning determination result may be held for 48 hours.

  As described above, based on the results of investigating the pressure fluctuation immediately before a past large earthquake, the judgment formula regarding the long-term pressure fluctuation gradient ΔP / Δd is used as the judgment condition for earthquake attention, and the judgment formula regarding the short-term pressure fluctuation gradient ΔP / Δh is It was found that it can be used as a judgment condition for earthquake warning. Furthermore, by taking into account the atmospheric pressure fluctuation amount ΔP within the immediately preceding fixed period, it is possible to expect an improvement in determination accuracy, and it is possible to increase the reliability of caution / warning.

  Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention based on these findings will be described in detail with reference to the drawings.

  FIG. 1 shows a schematic block diagram of an embodiment of an earthquake warning system according to the present invention configured to notify a user possessing a communication terminal of an earthquake warning / warning in the current location or a designated area.

  The analysis server 10 analyzes the possibility of an earthquake from the time variation of the atmospheric pressure, and transmits safety / caution / warning obtained from the analysis result to the communication terminal 40 of the user. For this analysis, the analysis server 10 refers to an earthquake database 70 made up of data held by the Japan Meteorological Agency and the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan, and also has a barometer network 80 for measuring atmospheric pressure in major areas including earthquake warning areas. refer. The analysis server 10, the communication terminal 40, the earthquake database 70, and the barometer network 80 are connected to a network 90 including various wireless or wired communication networks and the Internet, and can exchange data with each other via the network 90.

  The seismic database 70 holds various data of past great earthquake occurrence locations and activity history, meteorological weather maps before and after the earthquake, and crustal deformation distortion (predicted seismic intensity) by the government's own research and research headquarters. The barometer network 80 is composed of a barometer group located in a main area including an earthquake warning area, periodically transmits the measured barometer and barometer ID to the analysis server 10, and if necessary, also has a measurement position. It transmits to the analysis server 10. Locations and activity histories of past major earthquakes and meteorological weather maps before and after the earthquake are used to determine a determination threshold for seismic potential.

  The communication terminal 40 is a so-called smartphone, and includes a CPU 42, ROM 44, RAM 46, storage device 47 as auxiliary storage, a GPS receiver 48, a barometer 50, a display device 52, a speaker 54, an operation device 56, a communication device 58, and a timer ( RTC) 60. The CPU 42 controls each unit of the communication terminal 40 according to a user operation by the operation device 56 and a program stored in the ROM 44 or the storage device 47. The RAM 46 is used as a work area for programs that run on the CPU 42. The storage device 47 is composed of, for example, a semiconductor storage device (SSD) or a nonvolatile storage device such as an HDD. The GPS receiver 48 is positioning means for receiving radio waves from a positioning satellite by the GPS / GNSS system and measuring the three-dimensional position of the communication terminal. The barometer 50 measures the ambient atmospheric pressure.

  Although details will be described later, the communication terminal 40 communicates the atmospheric pressure value measured by the barometer 50 and the three-dimensional position coordinates (x, y, z) measured by the GPS receiver 48 under the earthquake warning application program. The data is transmitted to the analysis server 10 periodically via the device 58, for example, every 10 minutes. That is, the communication terminal 40 can operate even if it is one of the barometer groups of the barometer network 80.

  Examples of the barometer constituting the barometer network 80 include a communication terminal 82 having a configuration similar to that of the communication terminal 40, a stationary barometer 84 installed at a fixed location, and a barometer with GPS capable of freely changing the installation position. 86 and an atmospheric pressure reference station 88 operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The frequency of the atmospheric pressure measurement may be a time interval as long as necessary for risk determination described later. However, in order to reduce the processing load on the analysis server 10, an interval of 10 minutes is preferable, and an interval of 10 minutes starting from 0 minutes is more preferable. And

  Since the communication terminal 82 has a GPS function similarly to the communication terminal 40, the measurement time and positioning position information are added to the measured atmospheric pressure value and are periodically transmitted to the analysis server 10. The stationary barometer 84 adds the measurement time and the barometer ID to the measured barometric pressure value, and periodically transmits it to the analysis server 10. The analysis server 10 holds a table in which the installation position and the barometer ID are associated with each other for the stationary barometer 84, and specifies the installation position of the stationary barometer 84 based on the received barometer ID. The barometer with GPS 86 includes a GPS receiver, a barometer, and a transmission unit that transmits these measurement values to the analysis server 10. Similar to the communication terminal 82, the measurement barometer 86 includes a measurement time and positioning position information. And periodically transmitted to the analysis server 10. The analysis server 10 refers to the measured atmospheric pressure value of the nearby atmospheric pressure reference station 88 for an area where the atmospheric pressure value cannot be acquired.

  When the transmission delay time from the barometer network 80 to the analysis server 10 is not a problem, the communication terminal 82, the stationary barometer 84, and the barometer 86 with GPS do not need to transmit the measurement time to the analysis server 10, and the analysis server 10 processes the reception time as the measurement time.

  The analysis server 10 includes a computer, and includes a CPU 12, a ROM 14, a RAM 16, a storage device 18 including a nonvolatile mass storage, a communication device 20, and a timer (RTC) 22. The storage device 18 is composed of a nonvolatile storage device such as an SSD or an HDD. The CPU 12 implements functions 24, 26, and 28 described later by executing a program stored in the ROM 14 or the storage device 18. The RAM 16 is used as a work area for programs that run on the CPU 12.

  The CPU 12 of the analysis server 10 executes a program that realizes the ground strength analysis function 24 as preprocessing for earthquake prediction. The ground strength analysis function 24 accesses the earthquake database 70 via the communication device 20 and the network 90, and calculates the ground strength indicating the degree to which the atmospheric pressure fluctuation induces the earthquake for major regions including the earthquake warning region. The result is stored in the storage device 18 as ground strength distribution data 18A. The ground strength distribution data 18A corresponds to the quantitative evaluation of each place with a value corresponding to the predicted seismic intensity. The ground strength distribution may be a local unit or a district unit within the local government, but in this embodiment, it is a partition unit when the whole of Japan is divided into meshes or lattices in the east, west, south, and north at a predetermined distance (for example, 5 km to 10 km). . The ground strength distribution data 18 </ b> A may be simply ranked by predicted seismic intensity obtained from crustal deformation prediction in the earthquake database 70.

  The analysis server 10 collects the measured atmospheric pressure value transmitted from the communication terminal 40 and the barometer network 80 by the atmospheric pressure data collection function 26. The measured atmospheric pressure value transmitted from the communication terminal 40 and the barometer network 80 is input to the communication device 20 of the analysis server 10 via the network 90, and the communication device 20 transfers the received data to the atmospheric pressure data collection function 26 of the CPU 12. . FIG. 2 shows an operational flowchart of the atmospheric pressure data collection function 26 realized by a computer program running on the CPU 12.

  The atmospheric pressure data collection function 26 waits for reception of an atmospheric pressure value transmitted from the communication terminal 40 and the barometer network 80 (S1).

  When the barometric pressure data collection function 26 receives the barometric pressure value transmitted from the communication terminal 40 or the barometer network 80 (S1), the barometric pressure data collecting function 26 determines which section belongs to the location of the barometer of the transmission source and follows a predetermined conversion formula. The atmospheric pressure value is converted to sea level pressure (sea level correction pressure) (S2). The location of the transmission barometer can be determined by the position data received simultaneously with the barometric pressure value or by the position data looked up by the barometer ID. The atmospheric pressure data collection function 26 acquires information on the ground temperature necessary for conversion into sea level atmospheric pressure from an external weather data server based on the position information of the measurement location. When the measured atmospheric pressure value transmitted from the communication terminal 40 or the barometer network 80 is the atmospheric pressure value converted into the sea level atmospheric pressure, the atmospheric pressure data collection function 26 does not need to convert it into the sea level atmospheric pressure.

  Of course, when each device of the communication terminal 40 and the barometer network 80 measures the temperature at the same time, the measured temperature is transmitted to the analysis server 10 together with the measured atmospheric pressure value, and the atmospheric pressure data collection function 26 is obtained. Convert the pressure value to sea level pressure using the measured temperature.

  The atmospheric pressure data collection function 26 accumulates the data of the section position and sea level atmospheric pressure converted value determined in S2 as the atmospheric pressure distribution data 18B in the storage device 18 for a predetermined number of days (for example, 21 days or more) retroactive to the past. Store (S3). If necessary, the atmospheric pressure data collection function 26 rearranges the past sea level atmospheric pressure converted values stored in the atmospheric pressure distribution data 18B to values at intervals of 10 minutes from the hour and stores them again in the atmospheric pressure distribution data 18B. Thereby, although the details will be described later, the risk determination calculation of the subsequent risk determination function 28 is facilitated. The risk determination function 28 may rearrange the sea level pressure converted value to a value at an interval of 10 minutes from the hour as pre-processing in the risk determination calculation.

  The risk determination function 28 refers to the atmospheric pressure distribution data 18B for the specified location designated by the CPU 12, determines the risk (possibility of earthquake) of the designated location by quantitative analysis of atmospheric pressure fluctuation, and stores the determination result as a storage device. 18 in the determination result table 18C. The determination result is one of three levels of “safety”, “caution”, and “warning”, and the determination result table 18C can store the determination level in units of mesh-divided sections for the warning target area. In this embodiment, the holding time of the determination result table 18C is defined in the determination results of “caution” and “warning”, and when the holding time has elapsed, the CPU 12 deletes the corresponding determination result from the determination result table 18C. To do.

  With reference to FIGS. 3, 4, and 5, an operation in which the analysis server 10 returns a risk determination result to the communication terminal 40 in response to an inquiry signal from the communication terminal 40 will be described. FIG. 3 shows an operation flowchart of the communication terminal 40, and FIG. 4 shows an operation flowchart of risk determination for an inquiry from the communication terminal 40. FIG. 5 shows an operation flowchart of the earthquake possibility determination by the risk determination function 28.

  The timer 60 of the communication terminal 40 outputs current time (hour minute second) data. The CPU 42 determines whether it is the measurement time when the barometric pressure value measured by the barometer 50 should be transmitted to the analysis server 10 (S11), whether there is an inquiry operation by the user (S12), and whether the determination result is received from the analysis server 10 (S13). ) Is monitored cyclically.

  When the output of the timer 60 is the normal time or the time corresponding to the 10 minute interval from the normal time (S11), the CPU 42 takes in the measured atmospheric pressure value of the barometer 50 and transmits it to the analysis server 10 via the communication device 58. . The analysis server 10 processes the measured atmospheric pressure value from the communication terminal 40 according to the procedure described with reference to FIG. 2 and accumulates it in the atmospheric pressure distribution data 18B of the storage device 18.

  When the user inputs an inquiry transmission instruction using the operation device 56 (S12), the CPU 42 transmits an inquiry signal of the possibility of earthquake in a preset area to the analysis server 10 (S15). This inquiry signal includes the position coordinates measured by the GPS receiver 48 when it is desired to know the degree of danger of its own position, and includes the representative position coordinates of this designated area when it is desired to know the degree of danger of the designated area. There may be a plurality of position coordinates. The timing for transmitting the inquiry to the analysis server 10 may be periodic based on user settings. When the timing set in such a manner is reached (S12), similarly, the CPU 42 transmits an inquiry signal of the possibility of earthquake in a preset area to the analysis server 10 (S15).

  When the risk determination result is received from the analysis server 10 (S13), the CPU 42 displays the received determination result on the display device 52 or outputs the sound from the speaker 54 (S16). The user of the communication terminal 40 can select and set in advance either screen display only, audio output only, or both as an output method of the received determination result. From the text message displayed on the screen of the display device 52 or the voice message output from the speaker 54, the user of the communication terminal 40 can know the possibility and degree of earthquake in the local government or the like including the designated position.

  Processing of the analysis server 10 in response to an inquiry from the communication terminal 40 will be described. The communication device 20 of the analysis server 10 transfers an inquiry signal from the communication terminal 40 to the CPU 12.

  The CPU 12 determines whether or not the position specified by the inquiry signal is included in the alert target area that warns of the occurrence of the earthquake (S21). When it is not a warning target area (S21), CPU12 transmits the message to the communication terminal 40 of inquiry origin that it is not a warning target area (S22). The communication terminal 40 displays the received message on the screen of the display device 52, or outputs sound corresponding to the message from the speaker 54 (S16).

  When the designated position of the inquiry signal is included in the warning target area (S21), the CPU 12 determines whether or not the risk determination result (particularly the warning determination result) of the designated position is stored in the determination result table 18C of the storage device 18. Determine (S23). When the determination result is not stored in the determination result table 18C (S23), the CPU 12 causes the risk determination function 28 to determine the risk of the district including the designated position (S24). The risk determination function 28 determines the risk of the designated district by the processing procedure shown in FIG. 5, and stores the determination result in the determination result table 18C (S24). The CPU 12 reads the determination result of the designated position from the determination result table 18C and transmits it to the inquiry communication terminal 40 (S25).

  When the determination result is already stored in the determination result table 18C (S23), the CPU 12 reads out the determination result from the determination result table 18C and transmits it to the inquiry source communication terminal 40 (S25).

  Since the retention period of attention determination is as long as 21 days as will be described later, it is preferable to reconfirm early even if attention determination has already been made. In this point of view, the CPU 12 may branch depending on whether or not a warning determination result is stored in S23. Of course, the CPU 12 may omit S23 and always execute the risk determination (S24) for the inquiry.

  FIG. 5 shows a detailed flowchart of the risk determination step (S24). The risk determination function 28 executes the processing procedure shown in FIG. The CPU 12 passes the position data indicating the section where the risk is to be determined and the threshold for determining the risk of the section to the risk determination function 28, and causes the risk determination function 28 to execute the process shown in FIG. .

  The risk determination function 28 refers to the atmospheric pressure distribution data 18B, and reads the atmospheric pressure data of the section including the designated position for a predetermined number of days in the past (attention determination period) (for example, 21 days) (S31). .

  The risk determination function 28 determines whether or not a caution determination condition is satisfied (S32). Here, as an attention determination condition, an atmospheric pressure fluctuation amount ΔP which is a difference between the maximum atmospheric pressure value and the minimum atmospheric pressure value within the attention determination period is also taken into consideration, and ΔP> 10 and ΔP / Δd> 4. This corresponds to determining whether or not it falls within the range indicated by the broken line in the diagram shown in FIG. 8, and the threshold value (long-term fluctuation amount threshold value) for the atmospheric pressure fluctuation amount ΔP is 10 (hPa), and the long-term atmospheric pressure fluctuation The threshold (long-term gradient threshold) for the gradient ΔP / Δd is 4 (hPa / day).

  As a specific procedure, the risk determination function 28 scans the read atmospheric pressure data from the present to the past with a difference of 24 hours, and the atmospheric pressure fluctuation gradient ΔP / Δd and the atmospheric pressure that is the difference between the maximum atmospheric pressure value and the minimum atmospheric pressure value. A fluctuation amount ΔP is calculated, and it is determined whether or not a caution determination condition is satisfied. If the attention determination condition is satisfied during the calculation of the atmospheric pressure fluctuation gradient ΔP / Δd and the atmospheric pressure fluctuation amount ΔP sequentially from the present to the past, the risk determination function 28 exits S32 and proceeds to S35. If the caution determination condition is not satisfied even after the calculation of the air pressure fluctuation gradient ΔP / Δd and the air pressure fluctuation amount ΔP with respect to the sea level air pressure data for 21 days, the risk determination function 28 proceeds to S33.

  If the caution determination condition is not satisfied (S32), the risk of occurrence of an earthquake is extremely low. Therefore, the risk determination function 28 determines that the area is a safe area without the risk of an earthquake, and a determination result table The determination result of the corresponding area of 18C is overwritten with a code indicating “safe” (S33). Then, the risk determination function 28 clears the determination holding timer for this area (S34).

  When the attention determination condition is satisfied (S32), the risk determination function 28 determines whether or not the warning determination condition is satisfied within the past 48 hours (warning determination period) from the present (S35). Here, as a warning determination condition, an atmospheric pressure fluctuation amount ΔP which is a difference between the maximum atmospheric pressure value and the minimum atmospheric pressure value within the warning determination period is also considered, and ΔP> 2 and ΔP / Δh> 0.3. This corresponds to determining whether or not it falls within the range indicated by the broken line in the diagram shown in FIG. 9, and the threshold value (short-term fluctuation amount threshold value) for the atmospheric pressure fluctuation amount ΔP is 2 (hPa), and the short-term atmospheric pressure fluctuation A threshold value (short-term gradient threshold value) for the gradient ΔP / Δh is set to 0.3 (hPa / h). From FIG. 9, it can be seen that the warning determination conditions may be ΔP> 2 and ΔP / Δh> 0.4.

  As a specific procedure, the risk determination function 28 scans the read atmospheric pressure data in a range of 48 hours from the present to the past with a one hour difference, calculates the atmospheric pressure fluctuation gradient ΔP / Δh and the atmospheric pressure fluctuation amount ΔP, Determine whether the warning criteria are met. If the warning determination condition is satisfied while calculating the atmospheric pressure fluctuation gradient ΔP / Δh and the atmospheric pressure fluctuation amount ΔP sequentially from the present to the past, the risk determination function 28 exits S35 and proceeds to S36.

  When the warning judgment condition is satisfied (S35), since the risk of occurrence of an earthquake is extremely high, the risk judgment function 28 determines that the area is a warning area for the occurrence of an earthquake, and the corresponding area in the determination result table 18C. The determination result is overwritten with a code indicating “warning” (S36). Then, the risk determination function 28 sets 48 hours in the determination holding timer for this area, and starts decrementing the determination holding timer (S37).

  Even if calculation of the air pressure fluctuation gradient ΔP / Δh and the air pressure fluctuation amount ΔP for the sea surface pressure data for 48 hours is completed, if the warning judgment condition is not satisfied (S38), it is not enough to be wary, but caution is required. . Therefore, the risk determination function 28 determines that the area is a caution area where an earthquake has occurred, and overwrites the determination result of the corresponding area in the determination result table 18C with a code indicating “caution” (S38). Then, the risk determination function 28 sets 21 days in the determination holding timer for this area, and starts decrementing the determination holding timer (S39).

  After S34, S37, and S39, the risk determination function 28 ends the determination process and returns the process to the CPU 12.

  In FIG. 5, the calculations of S32 and S35 can be executed substantially simultaneously for the past 48 hours. While executing simultaneously, the warning determination (S35) may be determined with priority over the attention determination (S32). In situations where both caution and alert judgment results are given, the alert judgment results have priority.

  The CPU 12 holds the determination result of this area in the determination result table 18C for 48 hours as long as there is no overwriting for the warning determination result. That is, the earthquake alert level is maintained for 48 hours. This is because, when an earthquake that has caused tremendous damage in the past is examined, as shown in FIG. 11, the earthquake has occurred within two days with respect to the warning determination result. Further, the CPU 12 holds the determination result of this area in the determination result table 18C as it is for 21 days as long as there is no overwriting for the attention determination result. That is, the earthquake attention level is maintained for 21 days. This is also because, when an earthquake that has caused tremendous damage in the past is examined, as shown in FIG. 10, the earthquake has occurred within 21 days with respect to the determination result of “caution”. The 48-hour determination holding timer for the “warning” determination result and the 21-day determination holding timer for the attention determination result are examples, and some increase or decrease is allowed.

  The analysis server 10 monitors emergency earthquake information transmitted by the Japan Meteorological Agency. When the CPU 12 detects emergency earthquake information transmitted by the Japan Meteorological Agency, the CPU 12 clears the determination result and the determination holding timer for the corresponding area in the determination result table 18C. This is because priority should be given to emergency earthquake information from the Japan Meteorological Agency.

  According to the present embodiment, it is possible to obtain a material for determining safety / safety not only in the daily life but also in mountain climbing / traveling, and further, a material for determining safety / safety of a close relative living in a remote place. .

  Earthquakes include interplate earthquakes (or plate boundary earthquakes), inland crustal earthquakes (or continental intraplate earthquakes), and oceanic intraplate earthquakes. In addition, it generally differs depending on whether the epicenter is in the sea, on land along the sea, or in mountains. For example, as described with reference to FIGS. 6 to 11 for past earthquake examples, the judgment threshold values (atmospheric pressure fluctuation gradients ΔP / Δh, ΔP / Δd, and atmospheric pressure fluctuation amount ΔP) according to the ground strength of the area. By determining (threshold value), the reliability of caution / warning can be improved. For this purpose, the functions realized by the ground strength analysis function 24 and the risk determination function 28 are changed as described below.

  In the configuration shown in FIG. 1, the ground strength analysis function 24 stores a determination threshold value determined with reference to the seismic factor and the assumed location of the earthquake in the ground strength database 18 </ b> A for each region. In steps S32 and S35, the risk determination function 28 uses the determination threshold value corresponding to the determination target area read from the ground strength database 18A as a determination formula for the atmospheric pressure fluctuation gradients ΔP / Δh, ΔP / Δd, and the atmospheric pressure fluctuation amount ΔP. Apply.

  The ground strength analysis function 24 may determine a correction coefficient or a weighting coefficient for each region with respect to the standard determination threshold instead of the determination threshold for each region, and store the correction coefficient or weighting factor in the ground strength database 18A. In this case, the risk determination function 28 applies a result obtained by multiplying the standard determination threshold by a correction coefficient or a weight coefficient corresponding to the determination target region to the determination formulas S32 and S35.

  In areas where there is no possibility of occurrence of earthquakes, it is possible to prevent a warning signal or a warning signal from being erroneously generated by giving a maximum determination threshold value in the comparison calculation of S32 and S35.

  The analysis server 10 may periodically determine the risk level of each district. In this case, the analysis server 10 broadcasts the result of determination of caution or warning to the communication terminal 40 in the area where the determination result is attention or warning, or the communication terminal 40 that has set the area as the attention area. Multicast.

  Specifically, the CPU 12 causes the risk determination function 28 to determine the risk in order for each district or region divided by the ground strength distribution data 18A. Then, the CPU 12 multicasts or broadcasts the determination result to a communication terminal that is set to receive the risk determination result among the communication terminals 40 located in an area where the determination result is “caution” or “warning”. Send. For such transmission, an emergency earthquake bulletin notification system employed by mobile communication companies can be used.

  The present invention can also be configured as a stand-alone device that is stationary or carried in the same location or region.

  FIG. 12 shows a schematic block diagram of an embodiment configured to function alone. The earthquake alarm device 110 includes a CPU 112, a ROM 114, a RAM 116, a storage device 118 as auxiliary storage, a barometer 120, a thermometer 121, an operation device 122, a display device 124, a speaker 126, and a timer (RTC) 128. They are connected to each other via a bus 130.

  The CPU 112 controls each unit of the earthquake alarm device 110 according to a user operation by the operation device 122 and a program stored in the ROM 114 or the storage device 118. The RAM 116 is used as a work area for programs that run on the CPU 112.

  The barometer 120 measures the ambient atmospheric pressure and transmits the measured atmospheric pressure value to the CPU 112 via the bus 130. The thermometer 121 measures the ambient temperature and transmits the measured temperature to the CPU 112 via the bus 130.

  The operation device 122 includes a dial switch and / or a touch panel arranged on the screen of the display device 124. The storage device 118 includes a nonvolatile storage device such as an HDD or an SDD. The display device 124 may include red and green light emitting diodes in addition to the character image display means such as a liquid crystal display panel.

  Prior to the start of use, the user needs to set a determination threshold for the area of use and an altitude value necessary for converting the measured atmospheric pressure value to the sea level atmospheric pressure. A determination threshold value table 118 </ b> A that stores determination threshold values for each region is stored in the storage device 118 as auxiliary means for setting determination threshold values. The CPU 112 searches the determination threshold value table 118A with the use area name input by the user, and determines the determination threshold value to be applied. The determined determination threshold value is stored in the storage device 118. The CPU 112 also stores the altitude value input by the user in the storage device 118 for sea level correction.

  The CPU 112 implements an atmospheric pressure data conversion function 132 and a risk determination function 134 by executing an earthquake warning program stored in the ROM 114 or the storage device 118. In this embodiment, the atmospheric pressure data conversion function 132 and the risk determination function 134 operate in parallel.

  The barometric pressure data conversion function 132 of the CPU 112 refers to the output of the timer 128, takes in the barometric pressure value measured by the barometer 120 and the temperature measured by the thermometer 121 every 10 minutes, and sets the altitude value and measurement set. Convert measured barometric pressure value to sea level pressure using temperature. The atmospheric pressure data conversion function 132 accumulates and stores the calculated sea level atmospheric pressure data in the storage device 118 as atmospheric pressure distribution data 118B for a certain number of days (for example, 21 days) from the present to the past.

  The CPU 112 causes the risk determination function 134 to be executed at regular time intervals. FIG. 13 shows a flowchart of operations realized by the risk determination function 134.

  The risk determination function 134 refers to the atmospheric pressure distribution data 118B, and reads the atmospheric pressure data for a predetermined number of days in the past (for example, 21 days) going back from the present (S41).

  The risk determination function 134 determines whether or not a caution determination condition is satisfied (S42). Here, the atmospheric pressure fluctuation amount ΔP is also taken into consideration as the caution determination condition, and ΔP> Ka and ΔP / Δd> Kb. Ka is a long-term variation threshold and Kb is a long-term gradient threshold. In FIG. 5, Ka = 10 and Kb = 4.

  As a specific procedure, the risk determination function 134 scans the read atmospheric pressure data from the present to the past with a difference of 24 hours, calculates the atmospheric pressure fluctuation gradient ΔP / Δd and the atmospheric pressure fluctuation amount ΔP, and satisfies the caution determination condition. Determine whether or not. If the attention determination condition is satisfied during the calculation of the atmospheric pressure fluctuation gradient ΔP / Δd and the atmospheric pressure fluctuation amount ΔP sequentially from the present to the past, the risk determination function 134 proceeds to S46 through S42. Even if calculation of the air pressure fluctuation gradient ΔP / Δd and the air pressure fluctuation amount ΔP is completed for the sea surface pressure data for 21 days, if the caution determination condition is not satisfied (S42), the risk determination function 134 proceeds to S43.

  If the caution determination condition is not satisfied (S42), the risk of occurrence of the earthquake is extremely low, and therefore the risk determination function 134 determines that the safety state is free of the risk of earthquake (S33). Then, the risk determination function 134 clears the determination hold timer (S44), and clears the display on the display device 124 (S45). The green light emitting diode may be constantly lit.

  When the attention determination condition is satisfied (S42), the risk determination function 134 determines whether or not the warning determination condition is satisfied within the past 48 hours from the present (S46). Here, as a warning determination condition, the atmospheric pressure fluctuation amount ΔP is also taken into account, and ΔP> Kc and ΔP / Δh> Kd. Kc is a short-term fluctuation amount threshold value, and Kd is a short-term gradient threshold value. In the example shown in FIG. 5, Kc = 2 and Kd = 0.3.

  As a specific procedure, the risk determination function 134 scans the read atmospheric pressure data for 48 hours from the present to the past with a one-hour difference, calculates the atmospheric pressure fluctuation gradient ΔP / Δh and the atmospheric pressure fluctuation amount ΔP, Determine whether the warning criteria are met. If the warning determination condition is satisfied while calculating the atmospheric pressure fluctuation gradient ΔP / Δh and the atmospheric pressure fluctuation amount ΔP sequentially from the present to the past (S46), the risk determination function 134 exits S46 and proceeds to S47. .

  When the warning determination condition is satisfied (S46), since the risk of occurrence of an earthquake is extremely high, the risk determination function 134 determines that the area is a warning state of occurrence of an earthquake (S47). Then, the risk determination function 134 sets 48 hours in the determination holding timer, starts decrementing the determination holding timer (S48), satisfies the warning determination condition and the message indicating “warning” on the screen of the display device 124. The elapsed time since then is displayed (S49). Instead of the elapsed time, the remaining time until the determination holding timer becomes zero may be displayed. Further, the red light emitting diode may be rapidly blinked.

  Even if calculation of the air pressure fluctuation gradient ΔP / Δh and the air pressure fluctuation amount ΔP for the sea surface pressure data for 48 hours is completed, if the warning judgment condition is not satisfied (S46), it is not enough to be wary, but caution is required. . Therefore, the risk determination function 134 determines that the area is an attention state of occurrence of an earthquake (S50). Then, the risk determination function 134 sets the determination retention timer to 21 days and starts decrementing the determination retention timer (S52). The message indicating “caution” on the screen of the display device 124 and the attention determination condition are satisfied. The elapsed time since then is displayed (S52). Instead of the elapsed time, the remaining time until the determination holding timer becomes zero may be displayed. Further, the red light emitting diode may be blinked at a low speed.

  The CPU 12 maintains the display of S49 for the warning determination result until the determination holding timer becomes zero, and maintains the display of S52 for the attention determination result until the determination holding timer becomes zero.

  The calculations of S42 and S46 can be executed substantially simultaneously for the past 48 hours. While executing simultaneously, the warning determination (S46) may be determined with priority over the attention determination (S42). In situations where both caution and alert judgment results are given, the alert judgment results have priority.

  According to the present embodiment, it is possible to notify the residents of the possibility of the occurrence of a major earthquake in daily life at a high frequency. This makes it possible for residents to be prepared in advance and to evacuate with ease.

  FIG. 14 shows a schematic block diagram of an embodiment of an earthquake alarm device applied to a communication terminal having a GPS receiver and a data communication function, that is, a so-called smartphone.

  14 includes a CPU 212, ROM 214, RAM 216, storage device 218, barometer 220, thermometer 221, operation device 222, display device 224, speaker 226, timer (RTC) 228, GPS receiver 240 and Communication devices 242 are connected to each other via a bus 230. The functions of the storage device 218, barometer 220, thermometer 221, operation device 222, display device 224, speaker 226, and timer (RTC) 228 are the same as the corresponding elements of the embodiment shown in FIG.

  The CPU 212 controls each part of the earthquake alarm device 210 according to a user operation by the operation device 222 and a program stored in the ROM 214 or the storage device 218. The RAM 216 is used as a work area for programs that run on the CPU 212.

  The barometer 220 measures the ambient atmospheric pressure and transmits the measured atmospheric pressure value to the CPU 212 via the bus 230. The thermometer 221 measures the ambient temperature and transmits the measured temperature to the CPU 212 via the bus 230.

  Similar to the operation device 122, the operation device 222 includes a dial switch and / or a touch panel disposed on the screen of the display device 224. Similar to the storage device 118, the storage device 218 includes a nonvolatile storage device such as an HDD or an SDD. The storage device 218 stores a determination threshold value table 118A that stores determination threshold values for each region as auxiliary means for setting determination threshold values. Similar to the display device 124, the display device 224 may include light-emitting diodes that are lit in red and green in addition to the character image display means such as a liquid crystal display panel.

  The GPS receiver 240 is positioning means that receives radio waves from a positioning satellite of the GPS or GNSS system and measures its own three-dimensional position. The communication device 242 communicates with an external device, for example, a server on the Internet, by a wireless or wired method.

  The earthquake warning device 210 can detect the location of the earthquake warning device 210 by the GPS receiver 240. The CPU 212 searches the determination threshold value table 218A at the location of the earthquake warning device 210 determined by the GPS receiver 240, and determines a determination threshold value to be applied. As another method, the CPU 212 may obtain a determination threshold value by making an inquiry to an external server holding data similar to the determination threshold value table 218A via the communication device 242. In this case, the determination threshold value table 218A of the storage device 218 is not necessary. The CPU 112 stores the determined determination threshold in the storage device 118 or the RAM 216.

  The CPU 212 implements an atmospheric pressure data conversion function 232 and a risk determination function 234 by executing an earthquake warning program stored in the ROM 214 or the storage device 218.

  The atmospheric pressure data conversion function 232 of the CPU 212 refers to the output of the timer 228, and the altitude of the atmospheric pressure value measured by the barometer 220, the temperature measured by the thermometer 221, and the position data measured by the GPS receiver 240. Take values every 10 minutes. Then, the atmospheric pressure data conversion function 232 converts the measured atmospheric pressure value to the sea level atmospheric pressure using the altitude value and the measured temperature, and the calculated sea level atmospheric pressure data is stored in the storage device 118 as the atmospheric pressure distribution data 118B, from the present to the past. Accumulated and stored for a certain number of days (for example, 21 days).

  The CPU 212 causes the risk determination function 234 to be executed at regular time intervals. The risk determination function 234 operates in the same manner as the risk determination function 134, displays a warning / warning message on the display device 224, and outputs the same sound from the speaker 126. Detailed description is omitted.

  In the present embodiment, since the altitude value can be continuously measured and updated, the sea level pressure can be obtained with higher accuracy.

  Although the invention has been described with reference to specific illustrative embodiments, various modifications and alterations may be made to the above-described embodiments without departing from the scope of the invention as defined in the claims. This is obvious to an engineer in the field to which the present invention belongs, and such changes and modifications are also included in the technical scope of the present invention.

10: Analysis server 12: CPU
14: ROM
16: RAM
18: Storage device 18A: Ground strength distribution data 18B: Pressure distribution data 18C: Determination result table 20: Communication device 22: Timer (RTC)
24: Ground strength analysis function 26: Barometric pressure data collection function 28: Risk determination function 40: Communication terminal 42: CPU
44: ROM
46: RAM
47: Storage device 48: GPS receiver 50: Barometer 52: Display device 54: Speaker 56: Operating device 58: Communication device 60: Timer (RTC)
70: Earthquake database 80: Barometer network 82: Communication terminal 84: Stationary barometer 86: Barometer with GPS 88: Barometer reference station 90: Network 110: Earthquake alarm device 112: CPU
114: ROM
116: RAM
118: Storage device 120: Barometer 121: Thermometer 122: Operating device 124: Display device 126: Speaker 128: Timer (RTC)
130: Bus 132: Barometric pressure data conversion function 134: Risk determination function 210: Earthquake warning device 212: CPU
214: ROM
216: RAM
218: Storage device 220: Barometer 221: Thermometer 222: Operating device 224: Display device 226: Speaker 228: Timer (RTC)
230: Bus 240: GPS receiver 242: Communication device

Claims (24)

Atmospheric pressure detection means (120, 220);
Conversion means (132, 232) for converting the atmospheric pressure value detected by the atmospheric pressure detection means into an atmospheric pressure value;
Storage means (118, 218) for accumulating and storing the sea level pressure value converted by the conversion means for a predetermined period or longer;
A long-term atmospheric pressure fluctuation gradient (ΔP / Δd) indicating a difference in the atmospheric pressure value in the first time difference for the first period is calculated from the atmospheric pressure value accumulated and stored in the storage means, and the first pressure period is shorter than the first period. Calculating means (134, 234, S42, S46) for calculating a short-term pressure fluctuation gradient (ΔP / Δh) indicating a difference in the atmospheric pressure value in a second time difference shorter than the first time difference for the two periods;
Judgment means (134, 234) for judging the possibility of an earthquake based on a warning judgment condition including a comparison with the long-term gradient threshold of the long-term pressure fluctuation gradient and a warning judgment condition including a comparison with the short-term gradient threshold of the short-term pressure fluctuation gradient , S42, S46),
Output means (124, 126, 224, 226, S45, S49, S52) for outputting the determination result of the determination means
An earthquake alarm device characterized by comprising: The calculating means calculates the first atmospheric pressure fluctuation amount indicating the difference between the maximum atmospheric pressure value and the minimum atmospheric pressure value in the first period from the atmospheric pressure value accumulated and stored in the storage means, and the maximum in the second period. Calculate the second atmospheric pressure fluctuation amount indicating the difference between the atmospheric pressure value and the minimum atmospheric pressure value,
The caution determination condition is that the long-term atmospheric pressure fluctuation gradient exceeds the long-term gradient threshold, and the first atmospheric pressure fluctuation amount exceeds the long-term fluctuation threshold.
2. The warning determination condition according to claim 1, wherein the short-term pressure fluctuation gradient exceeds a short-term gradient threshold value, and the second atmospheric pressure fluctuation amount exceeds a corresponding short-term fluctuation threshold value. Earthquake warning device.   The determination means outputs a warning determination result when the warning determination condition is satisfied, and outputs a warning determination result when the warning determination condition is satisfied although the warning determination condition is not satisfied. Item 3. The earthquake alarm device according to item 1 or 2.   The determination unit holds the attention determination result for a first holding period, and holds the warning determination result for a second holding period shorter than the first holding period. Earthquake warning device.   The earthquake warning device according to claim 1, further comprising a control unit that sets values corresponding to the area that is a determination target of the earthquake possibility as the long-term gradient threshold and the short-term gradient threshold. Furthermore, it has positioning means and communication means for measuring the location,
The control means uses the communication means to query an external server that holds the long-term gradient threshold value and the short-term gradient threshold value according to the location position, and from the server. 6. The earthquake alarm device according to claim 5, wherein each returned value is set as the long-term gradient threshold and the short-term gradient threshold.   Furthermore, it has a control means for setting each of the long-term gradient threshold value, the short-term gradient threshold value, the long-term fluctuation amount threshold value, and the short-term fluctuation amount threshold value in accordance with the region to be determined for the possibility of the earthquake. The earthquake alarm device according to claim 2. Furthermore, it has positioning means and communication means for measuring the location,
The control means uses the communication means to determine the location position measured by the positioning means, the external long-term gradient threshold value, the short-term gradient threshold value, the long-term variation threshold value, and the short-term variation threshold value according to the location position. Querying a server that holds the value of each of the values, and setting each value returned from the server as the long-term gradient threshold, the short-term gradient threshold, the long-term variation threshold, and the short-term variation threshold. 7. The earthquake alarm device according to 7.   The earthquake alarm device according to any one of claims 1 to 8, wherein the first time difference is a 24-hour difference.   The earthquake warning device according to claim 1, wherein the second time difference is an hour difference. A barometric pressure data collection function (26) for collecting barometric pressure values measured at various locations, converting the barometric pressure values to sea level barometric pressure values and storing them in the storage means (18), and the storage means (18 A server (10) having a risk determination function (28) for determining the possibility of an earthquake based on the atmospheric pressure value stored in
One or more communication terminals (40) that receive the earthquake possibility determination result from the server (10) and notify the user
An earthquake warning system comprising:
The risk determination function (28)
A long-term atmospheric pressure fluctuation gradient (ΔP / Δd) indicating a difference in the atmospheric pressure value in the first time difference for the first period is calculated from the atmospheric pressure value accumulated and stored in the storage means, and the first pressure period is shorter than the first period. Calculating means (S32, S35) for calculating a short-term atmospheric pressure fluctuation gradient (ΔP / Δh) indicating a difference in the atmospheric pressure value in a second time difference shorter than the first time difference for two periods;
Judgment means (S32, S35) for judging the possibility of an earthquake based on a caution judgment condition including a comparison with the long-term gradient threshold of the long-term pressure fluctuation gradient and a warning judgment condition including a comparison with the short-term gradient threshold of the short-term pressure fluctuation gradient. )
And an earthquake warning system. The calculating means calculates the first atmospheric pressure fluctuation amount indicating the difference between the maximum atmospheric pressure value and the minimum atmospheric pressure value in the first period from the atmospheric pressure value accumulated and stored in the storage means, and the maximum in the second period. Calculate the second atmospheric pressure fluctuation amount indicating the difference between the atmospheric pressure value and the minimum atmospheric pressure value,
The caution determination condition is that the long-term atmospheric pressure fluctuation gradient exceeds the long-term gradient threshold, and the first atmospheric pressure fluctuation amount exceeds the long-term fluctuation threshold.
12. The warning determination condition according to claim 11, wherein the short-term pressure fluctuation gradient exceeds a short-term gradient threshold value, and the second atmospheric pressure fluctuation amount exceeds a corresponding short-term fluctuation threshold value. Earthquake warning system.   The determination means outputs a warning determination result when the warning determination condition is satisfied, and outputs a warning determination result when the warning determination condition is satisfied although the warning determination condition is not satisfied. Item 13. The earthquake warning system according to Item 11 or 12.   The determination means holds the attention determination result for a first holding period, and holds the warning determination result for a second holding period shorter than the first holding period. Earthquake warning system.   As the long-term gradient threshold value and the short-term gradient threshold value, values corresponding to the long-term gradient threshold value and the short-term gradient threshold value are stored in the storage unit for each area to be determined for the possibility of earthquake. The earthquake alarm system according to any one of claims 11 to 14.   In response to an inquiry from any one of the one or more communication terminals, the server returns a determination result of the possibility of earthquake in the area specified by the inquiry to the communication terminal that is the inquiry source. Item 16. The earthquake warning system according to any one of Items 11 to 15.   The server periodically determines the possibility of the earthquake for a plurality of predetermined areas, and transmits the determination result to a communication terminal located in an area where the predetermined determination result is obtained among the one or more communication terminals. The earthquake warning system according to any one of claims 11 to 15, wherein:   The server periodically determines the possibility of the earthquake for a plurality of predetermined areas, and transmits the determination result to a communication terminal that designates an area in which the predetermined determination result is output among the one or more communication terminals. The earthquake warning system according to any one of claims 11 to 15, wherein:   The earthquake warning system according to any one of claims 11 to 18, wherein the first time difference is a 24-hour difference.   The earthquake warning system according to any one of claims 11 to 19, wherein the second time difference is an hour difference. A computer program for determining the possibility of an earthquake from time fluctuations in atmospheric pressure value
A long-term atmospheric pressure fluctuation gradient (ΔP / Δd) indicating a difference in the atmospheric pressure value in the first time difference for the first period is calculated from the atmospheric pressure value within a predetermined period, and for a second period shorter than the first period. Calculating means (S32, S35) for calculating a short-term pressure fluctuation gradient (ΔP / Δh) indicating a difference in the atmospheric pressure value in a second time difference shorter than the first time difference;
Determination means (S32, S35) for determining the possibility of an earthquake based on a caution determination condition including a comparison of the long-term pressure fluctuation gradient with a long-term gradient threshold and a warning determination condition including a comparison of the short-term pressure fluctuation gradient with a short-term gradient threshold. )
Computer program to operate as. The calculation means calculates the first atmospheric pressure fluctuation amount indicating the difference between the maximum atmospheric pressure value and the minimum atmospheric pressure value in the first period from the atmospheric pressure value in the predetermined period, and the maximum atmospheric pressure value in the second period. Calculate the second atmospheric pressure fluctuation amount indicating the difference in the minimum atmospheric pressure value,
The caution determination condition is that the long-term atmospheric pressure fluctuation gradient exceeds the long-term gradient threshold, and the first atmospheric pressure fluctuation amount exceeds the long-term fluctuation threshold.
The warning judgment condition is that the short-term pressure fluctuation gradient exceeds a short-term gradient threshold value, and the second atmospheric pressure fluctuation amount exceeds a corresponding short-term fluctuation threshold value. Computer program.   The determination means outputs a warning determination result when the warning determination condition is satisfied, and outputs a warning determination result when the warning determination condition is satisfied although the warning determination condition is not satisfied. Item 23. The computer program according to item 21 or 22.   24. The determination unit according to claim 23, wherein the determination unit holds the attention determination result for a first holding period, and holds the warning determination result for a second holding period shorter than the first holding period. Computer program.

Images