JP2018200032A - Economical efficiency assessment system and economical efficiency assessment method - Google Patents

Abstract

To provide an economical efficiency assessment system capable of accurately calculating economical effect resulting from introduction of an upgrade product, based on operational data.SOLUTION: An economical efficiency assessment system comprises: an operational data acquisition unit configured to acquire operational data of a plant; an actual performance calculation unit configured to calculate performance of the plant based on the operational data; an improved performance estimation unit configured to estimate performance of the plant in introducing a product for improving performance of the plant; and an assessment unit configured to calculate economical effect in introducing the product, based on the difference between the performance calculated by the actual performance calculation unit and the performance estimated by the improved performance estimation unit.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

  The present invention relates to an economic evaluation system and an economic evaluation method.

  In a power plant or the like, an upgrade menu for improving the performance and operability of the plant is provided by the plant manufacturer. The person in charge of the manufacturer generally examines and proposes an upgrade menu that meets the needs of customers while listening to requests from customers who operate the plant during regular inspections.

  Regarding the proposal of the upgrade menu, for example, in Patent Document 1, the cost factor is identified from the analysis result of the operation data of the plant, and the economic impact when the upgrade menu is executed for the identified cost factor is calculated. There is a description of a system that proposes an upgrade menu that can be profitable.

US Patent Application Publication No. 2015/0058090

  However, in the calculation of the economic impact at the time of upgrade, it is common to calculate by assuming a certain model of the plant and its operating state, and the upgrade was actually performed at the plant operated by the customer. In many cases, it is not clear how much economic benefits it will bring. Further, Patent Document 1 does not describe a technique for solving such a problem.

  Accordingly, an object of the present invention is to provide an economic evaluation system and an economic evaluation method that can solve the above-described problems.

  According to the first aspect of the present invention, the operation data acquisition unit that acquires the operation data of the plant, the actual performance calculation unit that calculates the performance of the plant based on the acquired operation data, and the performance of the plant The difference between the performance-estimating unit for estimating the performance of the plant when a product that improves the performance is introduced into the plant, the performance calculated by the actual performance calculating unit, and the performance estimated by the improving-performance estimating unit And an evaluation unit that calculates an economic effect when the product is introduced.

  According to the second aspect of the present invention, in the economic evaluation system, the selection unit that selects a candidate for the product to be introduced into the plant from a plurality of products based on a calculation result by the evaluation unit. Are further provided.

  According to the third aspect of the present invention, the economic evaluation system further includes a proposing unit that extracts candidates for the product suitable for the state of the plant based on the acquired operation data.

  According to the fourth aspect of the present invention, in the economic evaluation system, the plant is a power plant, and the evaluation unit can be reduced by improving the output performance of the power plant by introducing the product. The economic effect is calculated from the fuel cost and the maintenance cost that can be reduced by introducing the product.

  According to a fifth aspect of the present invention, in the economic evaluation system, the plant is a power plant, and the product is a high efficiency particulate air filter (HEPA) used in a compressor included in a gas turbine of the power plant. The actual performance calculation unit calculates the efficiency of the compressor when the HEPA is not introduced based on the operation data, and converts the calculated efficiency of the compressor into the efficiency of the gas turbine. The improved performance estimating unit calculates the efficiency of the compressor after introducing the HEPA, converts the calculated efficiency of the compressor into the efficiency of the gas turbine, and the evaluating unit calculates the efficiency of the HEPA. A fuel reduction amount is calculated based on the difference in efficiency of the gas turbine before and after the introduction, and a fuel cost reduction amount is calculated based on the reduction amount.

  According to a sixth aspect of the present invention, in the economic evaluation system, the plant is a power plant, the product is a blade used in a turbine of a gas turbine of the power plant, and the actual performance calculation unit Calculates the efficiency of the gas turbine when the blades are not introduced, the improved performance estimation unit calculates the efficiency of the gas turbine after the blades are introduced, and the evaluation unit calculates the efficiency of the blades A fuel reduction amount is calculated based on the difference in efficiency of the gas turbine before and after the introduction, and a fuel cost reduction amount is calculated based on the reduction amount.

  According to a seventh aspect of the present invention, in the economic evaluation system, the plant is a power plant, the product is a valve of a gas turbine cooling system of the power plant, and the actual performance calculator is The efficiency of the gas turbine when the valve is not introduced is calculated, the performance estimation unit at the time of improvement calculates the efficiency of the gas turbine after the valve is introduced, and the evaluation unit introduces the valve A fuel reduction amount is calculated based on the difference in efficiency between the gas turbines before and after the calculation, and a fuel cost reduction amount is calculated based on the reduction amount.

  According to an eighth aspect of the present invention, in the economic evaluation system, the evaluation unit calculates an increase amount of fuel when the output increases after the introduction of the product, and introduces the product. The economic effect when the product is introduced is calculated based on the fuel cost based on the amount of increase / decrease in the fuel before and after the power and the power sales revenue corresponding to the increase in output.

  According to a ninth aspect of the present invention, there is provided a step in which the economic evaluation system acquires operation data of a plant, a performance calculation step of calculating the performance of the plant based on the acquired operation data, and the plant Based on the difference between the performance estimation step of estimating the performance of the plant when a product that improves the performance of the plant is introduced into the plant, the performance calculated in the performance calculation step, and the performance estimated in the performance estimation step And a step of calculating an economic effect when the product is introduced.

  By calculating the economic evaluation amount when the upgrade product is introduced based on the plant operation data, it becomes possible to calculate the economic evaluation amount more realistic and highly accurate. Can be considered.

It is a functional block diagram of the economic evaluation system in one embodiment of the present invention. It is a figure which shows an example of the plant in one Embodiment of this invention. It is a 1st figure explaining the economical evaluation process in one embodiment of the present invention. It is a 2nd figure explaining the economical evaluation process in one Embodiment of this invention. It is a 1st flowchart which shows an example of the process of the economic evaluation system in one Embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows an example of the hardware constitutions of the economical evaluation system in one Embodiment of this invention. It is a 2nd flowchart which shows an example of a process of the economical efficiency evaluation system in one Embodiment of this invention. It is a 3rd flowchart which shows an example of a process of the economical efficiency evaluation system in one Embodiment of this invention.

<Embodiment>
Hereinafter, an economic evaluation system according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIGS.
FIG. 1 is a functional block diagram of an economic evaluation system in one embodiment of the present invention.
The economic evaluation system 10 of the present embodiment provides an economic effect that is provided by equipment or parts (hereinafter referred to as an upgrade product) introduced (added or replaced) for the purpose of improving the function and performance of the plant. It is a system to evaluate. In operation of a power plant or the like, a periodic inspection is generally performed, and a deteriorated part is repaired or replaced. At that time, for example, an upgrade product may be introduced for the purpose of improving output and efficiency. When the upgrade product is introduced, the rated output and the power generation efficiency are improved. However, it is not clear how much the introduction of the upgrade product will benefit the user (plant operator, etc.), Low reliability. The economic evaluation system 10 according to the present embodiment quantitatively calculates and presents the economic effect that the introduction of the upgrade product brings to the plant based on the operation data of the plant operated by the user. As shown in FIG. 1, the economic evaluation system includes an operation data acquisition unit 101, an evaluation condition acquisition unit 102, an actual performance calculation unit 103, an improved performance estimation unit 104, an evaluation unit 105, and a selection unit 106. , A proposal unit 107, an input / output unit 108, a communication unit 109, and a storage unit 110. The economic evaluation system 10 includes, for example, a computer such as one or a plurality of server devices. Hereinafter, the case where the plant to be evaluated is a power plant will be described as an example.

  The operation data acquisition unit 101 acquires a measurement value detected by a sensor provided in an evaluation target power plant or a surrounding environment and a value calculated based on the measurement value together with information on the measurement time. In addition, the operation data acquisition unit 101 acquires a control signal output from the control device to the device.

  The evaluation condition acquisition unit 102 acquires values of various parameters used for calculation of economic evaluation of the power plant. Various parameters are, for example, economic parameters such as annual maintenance cost, fuel price, unit price of electricity sales, periodical inspection period, upgrade products installed in the past, past repair work, upgrade products It is information such as performance.

  The actual performance calculation unit 103 calculates the performance of the power plant (such as output efficiency) based on the operation data acquired by the operation data acquisition unit 101.

  The improvement performance estimation unit 104 estimates the performance of the power plant when the upgrade product is introduced based on the operation data acquired by the operation data acquisition unit 101 or the performance of the power plant calculated by the actual performance calculation unit 103.

  The evaluation unit 105 calculates a difference between the performance calculated by the actual performance calculation unit 103 and the performance estimated by the performance estimation unit 104 at the time of improvement, and calculates the difference in the calculated performance based on the production amount (power generation of the product manufactured by the plant). Amount) and cost factors for production (fuel amount), etc., and the economic evaluation value is calculated.

  The selection unit 106 selects a product having a large economic effect from a plurality of upgrade products based on the evaluation result by the evaluation unit 105.

  Based on the operation data acquired by the operation data acquisition unit 101, the suggestion unit 107 extracts upgrade product candidates suitable for the power plant from a plurality of upgrade products.

The input / output unit 108 accepts input of information from the user to the economic evaluation system 10. Further, the input / output unit 108 outputs an evaluation result and the like by the evaluation unit 105.
The communication unit 109 communicates with other devices. For example, the communication unit 109 receives operation data from a communication device provided in the plant.
The storage unit 110 stores various data. For example, the storage unit 110 stores the operation data acquired by the operation data acquisition unit 101, various parameters acquired by the evaluation condition acquisition unit 102, mathematical formulas and performance used by the actual performance calculation unit 103 and the performance estimation unit 104 during improvement in performance calculation. The estimation model and the like are stored. The storage unit 110 may be a storage device built in the economic evaluation system 10 or may be an external storage device (for example, a data center).

FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of a plant according to an embodiment of the present invention.
The power plant shown in FIG. 2 includes a gas turbine 20, a generator 26, and an operation system 27 that controls and monitors the operation of the gas turbine 20. The gas turbine 20 and the generator 26 are connected by a rotor 24. The gas turbine 20 includes a compressor 21 that compresses air to generate compressed air, a combustor 22 that burns fuel gas in the compressed air to generate high-temperature combustion gas, a turbine 23 that is driven by the combustion gas, It has. Further, the gas turbine 20 is provided with a cooling system 25, and the air extracted from the compressor 21 is supplied to the turbine 23 through the orifice 25 a in the cooling system 25. The moving blades and stationary blades of the turbine 23 are cooled by the air supplied from the cooling system 25. The operation system 27 is a control device composed of one or a plurality of computers. The operation system 27 adjusts the flow rate of air flowing into the compressor 21 by adjusting the opening degree of an IGV (IGV: inlet guide vane) (not shown), or controls the amount of fuel gas supplied to the combustor 22. Then, the gas turbine 20 is driven and the generator 26 is operated. In addition, the operation system 27 acquires a measurement value from a sensor provided in each device of the gas turbine 20 and performs error detection based on a threshold value. The operation system 27 is connected to the economic evaluation system 10 via a network. The operation system 27 transmits operation data including measurement values acquired from the sensors and control signals output to the gas turbine 20 to the economic evaluation system 10 at predetermined time intervals, for example.

  Next, an example of an upgrade product will be described. HEPA (High Efficiency Particulate Air Filter) 31 is an upgrade product to be introduced into the compressor 21. The HEPA 31 is attached to the suction side of the compressor 21 and provides a function of removing substances that cause deterioration of the gas turbine 20 from the sucked air. When the HEPA 31 is introduced, the compression efficiency of the compressor 21 can be improved and the output efficiency of the gas turbine 20 can be improved.

  The turbine blade 32 is an upgrade product to be introduced into the turbine 23 composed of a moving blade and a stationary blade. By exchanging the moving blade and the stationary blade of the turbine 23 with the turbine blade 32, the output efficiency and output of the gas turbine 20 can be improved.

The cooling air control valve 33 is an upgrade product introduced into the cooling system 25. In the case of the orifice 25a, the controllability of the cooling air amount may deteriorate due to the increase in diameter due to deterioration over time. By introducing the cooling air control valve 33, the cooling control of the turbine 23 can be appropriately performed, and the output efficiency of the gas turbine 20 and the decrease in the output can be suppressed.
The economic evaluation system 10 calculates an economic evaluation value when these upgrade products are introduced into the gas turbine 20. The upgrade product is not limited to these three examples.

FIG. 3 is a first diagram illustrating the economic evaluation process in one embodiment of the present invention.
The economic evaluation process will be described with reference to FIG. 3 by taking the case of introducing HEPA 31 as an example.
FIG. 3A is a graph showing the efficiency of the compressor 21 before and after the introduction of the HEPA 31. FIG. The vertical axis of the graph of FIG. 3A shows the efficiency of the compressor, and the horizontal axis shows the passage of time. A graph 301 is a graph showing the efficiency of the compressor 21 before the introduction of the HEPA 31. A graph 302 is a graph showing the efficiency of the compressor 21 after the introduction of the HEPA 31. A graph 301 shows a state in which the compressor efficiency is lowered before the introduction of the HEPA 31, and the performance is recovered by regular maintenance (cleaning). On the other hand, the graph 302 shows how the efficiency of the compressor 21 after the introduction of the HEPA 31 gradually decreases.
The operation data acquisition unit 101 acquires measurement values (operation data) such as air temperature, pressure, and flow rate over a predetermined period from sensors provided on the suction side and the outlet side of the compressor 21, for example.
The actual performance calculation unit 103 reads a predetermined approximate expression for calculating the compressor efficiency from the storage unit 110, and calculates the efficiency of the compressor 21 from the operation data and the approximate expression acquired by the operation data acquisition unit 101. A graph 301 is a deterioration curve showing a transition of the compressor efficiency of the compressor 21 based on the measured value obtained in a predetermined period.
The improved performance estimation unit 104 estimates the efficiency of the compressor 21 after the introduction of the HEPA 31. For example, the storage unit 110 stores a mathematical formula for estimating the efficiency of the compressor 21 after the introduction of the HEPA 31, or an estimation model for calculating an increase rate and performance of the efficiency after the introduction of the HEPA 31. The time performance estimation unit 104 is based on these mathematical formulas or estimation models and the operation data acquired by the operation data acquisition unit 101 or the deterioration curve of the efficiency of the compressor 21 calculated by the actual performance calculation unit 103. A deterioration curve indicating the transition of the compression efficiency of the compressor 21 is calculated. A graph 302 is an estimated deterioration curve of the compressor efficiency after the introduction of the HEPA 31 estimated by the performance estimating unit 104 in this way.

FIG. 3B is a graph showing the efficiency of the gas turbine 20 before and after the introduction of HEPA31. The vertical axis of the graph of FIG. 3B shows gas turbine efficiency, and the horizontal axis shows the passage of time. A graph 303 is a graph showing the efficiency of the gas turbine 20 before the introduction of HEPA31. A graph 304 is a graph showing the efficiency of the gas turbine 20 after the introduction of HEPA31.
The actual performance calculation unit 103 converts the efficiency (graph 301) of the compressor 21 calculated by itself into the efficiency of the gas turbine 20. For example, the storage unit 110 stores a conversion formula between the compressor efficiency and the gas turbine efficiency, and the actual performance calculation unit 103 calculates the efficiency of the gas turbine 20 based on the conversion formula and the calculated efficiency of the compressor 21. calculate. A graph 303 shows the transition of gas turbine efficiency during a predetermined period calculated by the actual performance calculation unit 103.
The improved performance estimation unit 104 converts the efficiency (graph 302) of the compressor 21 after the introduction of the HEPA 31 estimated by itself into the efficiency of the gas turbine 20. For example, the improved performance estimation unit 104 converts the efficiency of the compressor 21 after the introduction of the HEPA 31 into the efficiency of the gas turbine 20 after the introduction of the HEPA based on a predetermined conversion formula. A graph 304 shows the transition of the gas turbine efficiency after the introduction of the HEPA 31 in a predetermined period calculated by the improvement performance estimation unit 104.

FIG. 3C is a graph showing the amount of fuel that can be reduced by introducing HEPA 31. The vertical axis of the graph of FIG. 3C shows the amount of fuel reduction, and the horizontal axis shows the passage of time similar to that of the graph of FIG.
The evaluation unit 105 calculates the required fuel flow rate R1 from the gas turbine efficiency at a certain time t indicated by the graph 303 and the predetermined power generation output W. Further, the evaluation unit 105 calculates a necessary fuel flow rate R2 from the gas turbine efficiency after the introduction of the HEPA 31 and the power generation output W at the time point t indicated by the graph 304. The evaluation unit 105 subtracts R2 from R1 to calculate the fuel reduction amount at a certain time t. A graph 305 shows the transition of the fuel reduction amount calculated by the evaluation unit 105 based on the gas turbine efficiency improved by the introduction of HEPA31.

  Further, the evaluation unit 105 calculates a fuel cost that can be reduced by multiplying the fuel reduction amount at each time point by the fuel unit price at that time point. The evaluation unit 105 calculates the amount of cost reduction for one year by accumulating the amount of reduction of the fuel cost at each time point. The input / output unit 108 displays the cost reduction amount on the display device. Thereby, the economical evaluation value by introduction of HEPA31 can be obtained. The economic evaluation amount calculated by the evaluation unit 105 is a value based on the operation data of the user's power plant. In other words, the economic evaluation value is a fuel cost that is considered to have been actually reduced in the past year, for example, by the introduction of HEPA31. The user can grasp the economic effect of the introduction of the HEPA 31 by comparing the initial cost required for the introduction of the HEPA 31 with the reduction amount of the fuel cost. In general, the operation mode of the gas turbine (operating throughout the year, or operating only during the day and stopping at night) is not often changed. Therefore, for example, if it is possible to calculate a reduction in fuel cost for one year based on past actual operation data, it is considered that the same reduction effect can be obtained in the next year, so it is easy to grasp the economic effect in the future. can do. Thereby, the user can determine introduction of HEPA31 with reference to the effect of introduction (highly accurate economic evaluation amount). The power plant manufacturer can also confidently propose the introduction of HEPA31.

  Further, the evaluation unit 105 may calculate a reduction amount of annual maintenance costs, for example. For example, when the HEPA 31 is not provided, dust or the like adheres to the blades of the compressor 21 and causes a reduction in efficiency, so it is necessary to perform a cleaning operation periodically (graph 301). The plant person in charge of the manufacturer inputs, for example, the results of the cleaning work performed in the past to the economic evaluation system 10. The actual result of the cleaning operation is the number of operations per year (for example, X times), the operation cost per operation, and the like. Further, the plant person in charge inputs the frequency of the standard cleaning operation after the introduction of the HEPA 31 to the economic evaluation system 10. The evaluation condition acquisition unit 102 acquires the input information and records it in the storage unit 110. The evaluation unit 105 calculates a cleaning work cost that can be reduced per year based on the cleaning work result data recorded in the storage unit 110. The input / output unit 108 displays the reduction amount of the cleaning work and the number of cleaning operations in addition to the reduction amount of the fuel cost. By reducing the number of cleaning operations, it is possible not only to reduce the cost of the cleaning operation, but also to maintain a high operating rate of the gas turbine 20 and increase power sales revenue and improve plant reliability. Further, the evaluation unit 105 may further calculate a lost profit resulting from the operation stop for the cleaning work. As described above, the evaluation unit 105 converts various effects brought about by the introduction of the upgrade product into an economic evaluation amount and presents it to the user. As a result, the user can quantitatively evaluate the study of the upgrade product introduction.

  Next, economic evaluation processing when the turbine blade 32 and the cooling air control valve 33 are introduced will be described. First, the turbine blade 32 will be described. When the turbine blade 32 is introduced as described above, the output efficiency and output of the gas turbine are improved. The person in charge of the plant inputs, for example, an increase rate and an efficiency improvement rate of the output of the gas turbine 20 after applying the turbine blade 32 to the economic evaluation system 10. The output increase rate and efficiency improvement rate of the gas turbine 20 are determined in advance by a manufacturer that manufactures the turbine blades 32. Alternatively, the output increase rate of the gas turbine may be a value determined based on the user's power generation plan. The evaluation condition acquisition unit 102 acquires the input output increase rate and efficiency improvement rate of the gas turbine and records them in the storage unit 110.

The actual performance calculation unit 103 calculates the efficiency of the gas turbine 20 based on the output, fuel flow rate, and the like of the gas turbine 20 in a predetermined period acquired by the operation data acquisition unit 101. Further, the actual performance calculation unit 103 calculates the output of the gas turbine 20 (for example, the transition of the output for one year) based on the output of the gas turbine 20 in the predetermined period acquired by the operation data acquisition unit 101.
The performance estimation unit 104 at the time of improvement is based on the efficiency improvement ratio recorded in the storage unit 110 by the evaluation condition acquisition unit 102 and the efficiency of the gas turbine 20 calculated by the actual performance calculation unit 103. The efficiency of the turbine 20 is calculated. The improved performance estimation unit 104 introduces the turbine blades 32 based on the output increase rate recorded in the storage unit 110 by the evaluation condition acquisition unit 102 and the one-year output of the gas turbine 20 calculated by the actual performance calculation unit 103. The transition of the output of the subsequent gas turbine 20 for one year is calculated.

  As in the case of HEPA 31, the evaluation unit 105 calculates the annual fuel amount reduction amount due to the introduction of the turbine blade 32 based on the gas turbine efficiency before and after the introduction of the turbine blade 32. Further, the evaluation unit 105 calculates the fuel amount for one year required when the output is increased, based on the fuel flow rate increase amount corresponding to the increase in the output of the gas turbine 20 due to the introduction of the turbine blades 32. Thus, the evaluation unit 105 calculates the amount of change in fuel necessary for one year before and after the introduction of the turbine blade 32. Further, the evaluation unit 105 calculates an output increase amount (power generation increase amount) of the gas turbine 20 for one year.

  The evaluation unit 105 multiplies the power generation increase amount by the power sales unit price to calculate the power sales revenue for one year. The evaluation unit 105 calculates an increase / decrease in fuel cost for one year by multiplying the fuel change amount by the fuel unit price. The evaluation unit 105 adds up the calculated annual power sales revenue, fuel cost, annual maintenance cost, and initial cost required for introducing the turbine blades. Thereby, the evaluation part 105 can calculate the economical evaluation value by introduction of the turbine blade 32. As in the case of HEPA 31, the evaluation unit 105 may calculate a change in the repair cost due to the introduction of the turbine blade 32 for the annual maintenance cost.

  Next, the cooling air control valve 33 will be described. When the cooling air control valve 33 is introduced as described above, it is possible to suppress a decrease in the output of the gas turbine. For example, the plant person in charge calculates the set temperature of the disk cavity temperature of the turbine 23 based on a margin from a threshold value of the temperature at which a preset alarm is generated. Further, the plant person in charge calculates (a) the disk cavity temperature when the diameter of the orifice 25a is enlarged and (b) the disk cavity temperature when the cooling air control valve 33 is introduced based on the calculated set temperature. The person in charge of the plant inputs the disk cavity temperature before the introduction of the cooling air control valve 33 (when the diameter of the orifice 25a is enlarged) and the disk cavity temperature after the introduction of the cooling air control valve 33 to the economic evaluation system 10. The evaluation condition acquisition unit 102 acquires these input values and records them in the storage unit 110.

The actual performance calculation unit 103 calculates a one-year change in the gas turbine output based on the output of the gas turbine 20 in a predetermined period acquired by the operation data acquisition unit 101.
The improvement performance estimation unit 104 calculates the output improvement amount due to the introduction of the cooling air control valve 33 based on the difference in the disk cavity temperature before and after the introduction of the cooling air control valve 33 recorded in the storage unit 110 by the evaluation condition acquisition unit 102. To do. For example, a function or the like that defines the relationship between the disk cavity temperature and the gas turbine efficiency is recorded in the storage unit 110, and the improved performance estimation unit 104 includes the function and the gas turbine calculated by the actual performance calculation unit 103. The annual output of the gas turbine 20 after the introduction of the cooling air control valve 33 is based on the annual output of 20 and the disk cavity temperature before and after the introduction of the cooling air control valve 33 (above (a) and (b)). Calculate the transition of.

  The evaluation unit 105 calculates the annual fuel amount reduction resulting from the improvement in the output of the gas turbine 20 due to the introduction of the cooling air control valve 33. The evaluation unit 105 calculates a one-year fuel cost based on a one-year power sales revenue corresponding to an increase in output and a fuel change amount. The evaluation unit 105 calculates the annual effect amount by adding up the electricity sales revenue for one year, the fuel cost, the annual maintenance cost, and the initial cost required for introducing the cooling air control valve.

FIG. 4 is a second diagram illustrating the economic evaluation process in one embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 4A is a graph showing the amount of fuel reduction after the turbine blade 32 is introduced. The vertical axis of the graph in FIG. 4A indicates the amount of fuel reduction, and the horizontal axis indicates the passage of time. The graph 401 shows the amount of fuel reduction when the fuel is reduced by the efficiency improvement by introducing the turbine blade 32 but the output is not increased. A graph 402 indicates a fuel reduction amount when the fuel reduction amount due to the introduction of the turbine blade 32 slightly exceeds a fuel increase amount due to the increase in output, and a graph 403 indicates a result due to the increase in output than the fuel reduction amount due to the introduction of the turbine blade 32. The amount of fuel reduction when the increase in fuel exceeds is shown. Graphs 401 to 403 are based on the annual fuel amount calculated by the evaluation unit 105.

  FIG. 4B is a graph showing the power generation amount of the fuel after the turbine blade 32 is introduced. The vertical axis of the graph in FIG. 4B indicates the amount of power generation, and the horizontal axis indicates the passage of time. A graph 411 shows the transition of the power generation amount when the fuel reduction amount is the graph 401 in FIG. A graph 412 shows the transition of the power generation amount when the fuel reduction amount is the graph 402. A graph 413 shows the transition of the power generation amount when the fuel reduction amount is the graph 403. The graphs 411 to 413 are based on the annual power generation amount calculated by the evaluation unit 105.

  FIG. 4C is a graph showing the annual effect amount after the introduction of the turbine blade 32. The vertical axis of the graph in FIG. 4C indicates the annual effect amount. The graph 421 shows the annual effect amount when the fuel reduction amount is the graph 401 in FIG. 4A and the power generation amount is the graph 411 in FIG. The graph 422 shows the annual effect amount when the fuel reduction amount is the graph 402 and the power generation amount is the graph 412. A graph 423 shows an annual effect amount when the fuel reduction amount is the graph 403 and the power generation amount is the graph 413. The graphs 421 to 423 are based on the economic evaluation amount for one year calculated by the evaluation unit 105. Depending on the introduction of the turbine blades 32, the amount of reduction or increase in fuel varies as shown in FIG. Under these circumstances, it is not clear what the economic impact of the effect of reducing fuel costs and the increase in power sales revenue due to increased power generation will be. According to the economic evaluation system 10 of the present embodiment, it is possible to quantitatively calculate the economic impact due to the introduction of the upgrade product and present it to the user. Further, when the number of maintenance can be reduced by introducing the turbine blades 32 or the burden of maintenance work per time can be reduced, the annual effect amount including the annual maintenance cost can be calculated.

Next, the flow of economic evaluation processing according to the present embodiment will be described.
FIG. 5 is a first flowchart showing an example of processing of the economic evaluation system in one embodiment of the present invention.
As a premise, it is assumed that an upgrade product to be introduced is predetermined.
First, the operation data acquisition unit 101 acquires various operation data related to the plant (step S11). The operation data includes, for example, the output of the gas turbine 20, the flow rate of fuel supplied to the combustor 22, the temperature, pressure, and flow rate of air on the suction side and the outlet side of the compressor 21.
Next, the evaluation condition acquisition unit 102 acquires information such as an economic evaluation parameter and a performance improvement rate when an upgrade product is introduced (step S12). The economic evaluation parameters are, for example, a fuel unit price and a power selling unit price. The rate of improvement in performance is the rate of increase in compressor efficiency (in the case of HEPA 31), the rate of increase in gas turbine output and gas turbine efficiency (in the case of turbine blades 32), the rate of improvement in disk cavity temperature (of the cooling air control valve 33) Case).

  Next, the actual performance calculation unit 103 calculates the driving performance of the actual machine based on the driving data acquired by the driving data acquisition unit 101 (step S13). For example, when the upgrade product is HEPA31, the operation performance is a transition of the efficiency of the actual compressor 21 and the efficiency of the gas turbine 20 over one year before the introduction of the HEPA31. Alternatively, when the upgrade product is the turbine blade 32 or the cooling air control valve 33, the actual efficiency and output of the gas turbine 20 in a state in which the upgrade product is not introduced is a one-year transition.

  Next, the improvement performance estimation unit 104 estimates the operation performance when the upgrade product is introduced (step S14). For example, in the case of HEPA 31, the operation performance at the time of introduction of the upgrade product is an estimated value of the change over time of the efficiency of the gas turbine 20 for one year converted based on the improvement of the efficiency of the compressor 21. Alternatively, when the upgraded product is the turbine blade 32 or the cooling air control valve 33, the estimated value is a change over time in the efficiency and output of the gas turbine 20 over one year based on the efficiency improvement rate and output increase rate of the gas turbine 20.

Next, the evaluation unit 105 calculates the degree of driving performance improvement (step S15). For example, in the case of HEPA 31, the degree of improvement in operating efficiency is the difference between the gas turbine efficiency indicated by the graph 302 and the gas turbine efficiency indicated by the graph 301.
Next, the evaluation unit 105 calculates the increase and decrease in productivity and cost factors associated with the improvement of driving performance (step S16). The productivity is, for example, the gas turbine output exemplified in FIG. 4B, and the cost factor is, for example, the fuel amount exemplified in FIG. 3C and FIG. 4A. The cost factor is, for example, an annual maintenance cost or an initial cost required for introduction. Regarding the increase / decrease in annual maintenance costs, information necessary for calculating the maintenance costs after the introduction of the upgrade product (number of times of maintenance, work costs per operation, etc.) is given through the evaluation condition acquisition unit 102 and before the introduction. The maintenance cost is included in the repair work results.

  Next, the evaluation unit 105 calculates an economic evaluation amount (step S17). For example, the evaluation unit 105 calculates the economic evaluation amount by adding the amount of increase in power sales revenue, fuel cost, and maintenance cost.

  According to the present embodiment, it is possible to quantitatively calculate the economic benefit when an upgrade product is introduced for an operating plant. Moreover, since the economic evaluation amount is calculated based on the actual operation data of the target plant, a realistic and highly accurate economic evaluation amount in the plant can be calculated. For example, by using actual operation data over a predetermined period, it is possible to calculate the economic effect due to the introduction of an upgrade product according to the characteristics of the target plant and the degree of aging that could not be understood without actually operating. it can.

FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating an example of a hardware configuration of an economic evaluation system according to an embodiment of the present invention.
The computer 900 includes a CPU 901, a main storage device 902, an auxiliary storage device 903, an input / output interface 904, and a communication interface 905.
The economic evaluation system 10 described above is implemented in a computer 900. The operation of each processing unit described above is stored in the auxiliary storage device 903 in the form of a program. The CPU 901 reads out the program from the auxiliary storage device 903 and develops it in the main storage device 902, and in accordance with the program, each of the above function units (the operation data acquisition unit 101, the evaluation condition acquisition unit 102, the actual performance calculation unit 103, the performance at the time of improvement) The process by the estimation part 104, the evaluation part 105, the selection part 106, the proposal part 107) is performed. In addition, the CPU 901 ensures a storage area corresponding to the storage unit 110 in the main storage device 902 according to the program. In addition, the CPU 901 ensures a storage area for storing data being processed in the auxiliary storage device 903 according to the program.

  In at least one embodiment, the auxiliary storage device 903 is an example of a tangible medium that is not temporary. Other examples of the tangible medium that is not temporary include a magnetic disk, a magneto-optical disk, a CD-ROM, a DVD-ROM, and a semiconductor memory connected via the input / output interface 904. When this program is distributed to the computer 900 via a communication line, the computer 900 that has received the distribution may develop the program in the main storage device 902 and execute the above processing. The program may be for realizing a part of the functions described above. Further, the program may be a so-called difference file (difference program) that realizes the above-described function in combination with another program already stored in the auxiliary storage device 903.

  The computer 900 may be connected to a computer 910 such as a PC or a server terminal device via a communication interface 905 (communication unit 109). For example, the computer 900 is operated by a data sensor or the like, and transmits image data such as an input screen or a screen for displaying an evaluation result to the computer 910 used by a sales representative of the manufacturer via the communication interface 905 and the network. A salesperson may operate the economic evaluation system 10 mounted on the computer 900 through the computer 910. In this case, the computer 910 may be a mobile terminal device such as a tablet terminal, for example.

Hereinafter, the Example of the economical efficiency evaluation system 10 demonstrated so far is described.
First, for the purpose of suggesting to the user at the next periodic inspection, a manufacturer's service sales promotion staff or plant manager should extract an upgrade product with a large economic effect using the economic evaluation system 10 and propose it to the user. An example of selecting an upgrade menu will be described.
FIG. 7 is a second flowchart showing an example of processing of the economic evaluation system in one embodiment of the present invention.
As a premise, information on a plurality of plants (operation data, operation results such as repair work, request output, etc.) acquired by the operation data acquisition unit 101 and the evaluation condition acquisition unit 102 can be introduced into the storage unit 110 and each plant. Suppose that information (type, model number, performance improvement rate, etc.) of the upgrade product is recorded in advance. In addition, the storage unit 110 records each upgraded product and the plant characteristics indicated by the operation data in association with each other.
First, the plant person in charge designates a plant to be evaluated (step S21). The input / output unit 108 receives input of information on the designated plant and records it in the storage unit 110. Next, the plant person in charge designates the upgrade product selection method (step S22). Here, there are two methods for selecting an upgrade product: “a method for selecting an optimal upgrade product according to plant operating conditions, environment, etc.” and “a method for selecting an upgrade product with a large economic evaluation amount”. “The method of selecting the optimum upgrade product according to the operation conditions, environment, etc. of the plant” means that the performance of the compressor 21 is determined based on the operation data, for example, if the performance of the compressor 21 is degraded. It is a selection method that selects an upgrade product that improves performance. The “method for selecting an upgrade product with a large economic evaluation amount” is a selection method for selecting an upgrade product with the largest economic evaluation amount. The input / output unit 108 records the designated selection method in the storage unit 110.

  When the “method for selecting an optimal upgrade product according to the plant operating conditions, environment, etc.” is designated, the proposal unit 107 performs an upgrade product selection process. First, the proposing unit 107 reads out and acquires operation data, results of repair work, request output, and the like from the storage unit 110. The proposal unit 107 instructs the actual performance calculation unit 103 to calculate the driving performance. The actual performance calculation unit 103 calculates a change with time of the performance of each device included in the plant based on the operation data. For example, the actual performance calculation unit 103 calculates the transition of the efficiency of the compressor 21, the combustor 22, and the turbine 23 of the gas turbine 20 during a predetermined period. The proposing unit 107 selects a device whose deterioration has progressed according to the deterioration of the device performance calculated by the actual performance calculation unit 103 (step S23). Further, the proposing unit 107 selects a device on which the most repair work has been performed or a device on which the most serious repair work has been performed based on the results of the repair work.

Next, the proposing unit 107 selects an appropriate upgrade product (step S24). For example, the proposing unit 107 selects an upgrade product that recovers the performance of a device having the greatest efficiency degradation or a device having the efficiency degradation equal to or greater than a predetermined threshold. Or the proposal part 107 selects the upgrade product which restores the performance of the apparatus selected about the apparatus selected based on the track record of repair work.
For example, in a plant installed in an area contaminated with air, it is considered that the operation data indicates a decrease in the efficiency of the compressor 21 or the number of cleanings of the compressor 21 increases. In such a case, the proposal unit 107 selects the HEPA 31 that restores the performance of the compressor 21. Further, for example, in a cold region, there is a possibility that operation data indicating overcooling of the disk cavity may be measured. As a countermeasure for such an operating environment, the proposing unit 107 selects, for example, the cooling air control valve 33 that suppresses overcooling of the disk cavity. Moreover, when there is no margin in the output indicated by the operation data with respect to the required output, for example, the proposing unit 107 selects a turbine blade 32 that is effective in improving the output. The proposal unit 107 selects an upgrade product based on the correspondence relationship between each upgrade product recorded in the storage unit 110 and the characteristics of the plant based on the operation data. In the above example, the characteristics of the plant include a large number of cleanings of the compressor and a high frequency of supercooling of the disk cavity. The proposal unit 107 outputs the selected upgrade product to the evaluation unit 105. The proposing unit 107 may select a plurality of upgrade products. In addition to the upgrade product, the proposal unit 107 outputs the reason for selecting the upgrade product to the input / output unit 108.

  Next, the evaluation unit 105 calculates an economic evaluation amount when the upgrade product selected by the proposal unit 107 is introduced (step S25). Specifically, the evaluation unit 105 calculates the economic evaluation amount by a series of processes described using the flowchart of FIG. The evaluation unit 105 outputs the calculated economic evaluation amount to the input / output unit 108. The input / output unit 108 displays the upgrade product selected by the proposal unit 107, the reason for selection, and the economic evaluation value on the display device. Thereby, the plant person in charge can recognize the upgrade product effective for the user's plant. In addition, since the person in charge of the plant can grasp the reason why the upgrade product is selected, the necessity of introducing the upgrade product can be explained to the user more clearly. Further, since the person in charge of the plant can present the economic evaluation value, it is possible to clearly show the user how much profit can be obtained by introducing the upgrade product.

  On the other hand, when “method for selecting an upgrade product with a large economic evaluation amount” is designated, the selection unit 106 performs an upgrade product selection process. First, the selection unit 106 instructs the evaluation unit 105 to calculate an economic evaluation amount for all upgrade products that can be introduced into the plant specified in step S21. The evaluation unit 105 calculates the economic evaluation amount by a series of processes shown in the flowchart illustrated in FIG. 5 (step S26). The evaluation unit 105 outputs the calculation result to the selection unit 106. Next, the selection unit 106 selects an upgrade product with a large evaluation value (step S27). For example, the evaluation unit 105 selects, for example, the top five upgrade products in descending order of evaluation value. Alternatively, the evaluation unit 105 selects an upgrade product whose evaluation amount is equal to or greater than a predetermined threshold value. The evaluation unit 105 outputs, to the input / output unit 108, the name, economic evaluation amount, whether or not it has been introduced in the past, and the introduction start time of the selected upgrade product.

The input / output unit 108 displays the upgrade product selected by the selection unit 106, the economic evaluation amount, the presence / absence of introduction in the past, and the like on the display device in descending order of the economic effect, for example. Thereby, the plant person in charge can present to the user an upgrade product that has not been introduced yet and has a large economic effect. In addition, even if the upgrade product has been introduced in the past, the plant person in charge may recommend the introduction of the upgrade product when the replacement time has come.
Note that the evaluation unit 105 may calculate not only the economic effect on the user but also the profit rate on the manufacturer side and display this value. Moreover, both the selection process (steps S26 to S27) by the selection unit 106 and the selection process (steps S23 to S25) by the proposal unit 107 may be performed, and the results of both processes may be displayed.
According to the economic evaluation system 10 of the present embodiment, upgrade product candidates are clarified by extracting upgrade product candidates based on operation data of actual machines, and upgrade products are proactively proposed to users. Can be performed. Moreover, since the cost merit of each upgrade product according to the operation state for each plant can be presented as a quantitative numerical value, a more persuasive proposal can be made to the user.

Next, the sales representative, for example, meets the user and obtains user-specific information such as the fuel unit price directly from the user while making a trial calculation of the economic evaluation value and presents the effect of introducing the upgrade product to the user. An example will be described.
FIG. 8 is a third flowchart showing an example of processing of the economic evaluation system in one embodiment of the present invention.
It is assumed that upgrade product candidates to be presented to the user based on the processing described with reference to FIG.
First, the sales representative designates a plant to be evaluated (step S31). The terminal device (computer 910 in FIG. 6) used by the sales representative transmits information on the designated plant to the economic evaluation system 10 (computer 900 in FIG. 6). In the economic evaluation system 10, the communication unit 109 Receives the information of the designated plant and records it in the storage unit 110.
Next, the plant person in charge designates an arbitrary upgrade product from the upgrade product candidates extracted in advance (step S32). The communication unit 109 receives information about the designated upgrade product and records it in the storage unit 110.
Next, the sales representative prompts the user to input the actual fuel unit price and the power selling unit price, and the user inputs the sales information to the terminal device. In the economic evaluation system 10, the evaluation condition acquisition unit 102 acquires the fuel unit price and the like via the communication unit 109 (step S <b> 33) and records it in the storage unit 110.

Next, the sales representative inputs information for instructing calculation of the economic evaluation amount to the terminal device.
In the economic evaluation system 10, the evaluation unit 105 acquires this instruction information via the communication unit 109, and calculates an economic evaluation amount (step S34). The evaluation unit 105 transmits the calculated economic evaluation amount to the terminal device via the communication unit 109. The terminal device displays the economic evaluation amount by the evaluation unit 105 (step S35). As described above, according to the economic evaluation system 10 of the present embodiment, it is possible to estimate an economic effect at the time of introduction of an upgrade product for each plant, so that it can be used in a business negotiation with a user.

  In addition, it is possible to appropriately replace the components in the above-described embodiments with known components without departing from the spirit of the present invention. The technical scope of the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiment, and various modifications can be made without departing from the spirit of the present invention.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 10 ... Economical evaluation system 101 ... Operation data acquisition part 102 ... Evaluation condition acquisition part 103 ... Actual performance calculation part 104 ... Improvement performance estimation part 105 ... Evaluation part 106 ... Selection unit 107 ... Proposal unit 108 ... Input / output unit 109 ... Communication unit 110 ... Storage unit

Claims (9)

An operation data acquisition unit for acquiring operation data of the plant;
Based on the acquired operation data, an actual performance calculation unit that calculates the performance of the plant;
An improved performance estimation unit that estimates the performance of the plant when a product that improves the performance of the plant is introduced into the plant;
Based on the difference between the performance calculated by the actual performance calculation unit and the performance estimated by the improved performance estimation unit, an evaluation unit that calculates an economic effect when the product is introduced;
Economic evaluation system with A selection unit that selects a candidate for the product to be introduced into the plant from a plurality of products based on the calculation result by the evaluation unit,
The economic evaluation system according to claim 1, further comprising: Based on the acquired operation data, a proposal unit that extracts the product candidates suitable for the state of the plant,
The economic evaluation system according to claim 1, further comprising: The plant is a power plant,
The evaluation unit calculates the economic effect by the fuel cost that can be reduced by improving the output performance of the power plant by the introduction of the product, and the maintenance cost that can be reduced by the introduction of the product.
The economic evaluation system according to any one of claims 1 to 3. The plant is a power plant, and the product is a HEPA used in a compressor included in a gas turbine of the power plant,
The actual performance calculation unit calculates the efficiency of the compressor when not introducing the HEPA based on the operation data, converts the calculated efficiency of the compressor into the efficiency of the gas turbine,
The improved performance estimation unit calculates the efficiency of the compressor after introducing the HEPA, converts the calculated efficiency of the compressor into the efficiency of the gas turbine,
The evaluation unit calculates a fuel reduction amount based on a difference in efficiency of the gas turbine before and after the introduction of the HEPA, and calculates a fuel cost reduction amount based on the reduction amount;
The economic evaluation system according to any one of claims 1 to 4. The plant is a power plant, and the product is a blade used in a turbine of a gas turbine of the power plant,
The actual performance calculation unit calculates the efficiency of the gas turbine when the blade is not introduced,
The improved performance estimation unit calculates the efficiency of the gas turbine after introducing the blades,
The evaluation unit calculates a fuel reduction amount based on a difference in efficiency of the gas turbine before and after the introduction of the blade, and calculates a fuel cost reduction amount based on the reduction amount;
The economic evaluation system according to any one of claims 1 to 5. The plant is a power plant, and the product is a valve of a gas turbine cooling system of the power plant,
The actual performance calculation unit calculates the efficiency of the gas turbine when the valve is not introduced,
The improved performance estimation unit calculates the efficiency of the gas turbine after introducing the valve,
The evaluation unit calculates a fuel reduction amount based on a difference in efficiency of the gas turbine before and after the introduction of the valve, and calculates a fuel cost reduction amount based on the reduction amount;
The economic evaluation system according to any one of claims 1 to 6. The evaluation unit calculates the amount of increase in fuel when the output increases after the introduction of the product, and calculates the fuel cost based on the increase / decrease amount of the fuel before and after the introduction of the product and the sales corresponding to the increase in output. Based on electricity revenue, calculate the economic effect when the product is introduced,
The economic evaluation system according to claim 6 or 7. Economic evaluation system
Obtaining plant operational data;
A performance calculating step for calculating the performance of the plant based on the acquired operation data;
A performance estimation step for estimating the performance of the plant when a product for improving the performance of the plant is introduced into the plant;
Calculating the economic effect when the product is introduced based on the difference between the performance calculated in the performance calculation step and the performance estimated in the performance estimation step;
An economic evaluation method having

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