JP2018180921A - Final order time identification device - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a final order time identification device that efficiently reduces a time required for daily closing operation such as shipping products and number of workers, and decreases a load for facility used for corresponding work.SOLUTION: A final order time identification device includes final time identification means that identifies, when it is deemed that final ordering time for one ordering party on a same day follows one probability distribution with an X axis as time and a Y axis as an occurrence frequency, final order predicted time at which a percentile value is in a vicinity of a predetermined set value in a cumulative distribution function relating to the one probability distribution; and final time informing means that informs the final order predicted time identified by the final time identification means; where the predetermined set value is a value set based on a degree that an order can be allowed to be made on the same day, on or after the final order predicted time, for the one ordering party.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2

Description

  The present invention relates to a technique for efficiently performing a closing operation (for example, a shipping operation of a product) for an order from a customer.

  In recent years, a large number of virtual stores have been opened on the Internet, and it is not uncommon to purchase goods and services at the virtual stores in any transaction of "BtoB" and "BtoC".

  In particular, in the BtoB transaction, there is a need for the orderer to reduce his inventory risk as much as possible, but in such a virtual store as described above, since it is possible to easily place an order each time, small items are sold several times a day. There may be an order. Under such circumstances, in the virtual shop, it is often performed to set the final closing time of the order and to carry out the shipping work of the order after the final closing time.

  On the other hand, if the time for carrying out the above-mentioned shipping work for a plurality of orderers overlaps, it is difficult to simultaneously carry out the work for a plurality of orderers at the same time. Equipment will be needed.

  Under such a background, attempts to streamline the above-mentioned shipping operation (day-closing operation) are actively being carried out. For example, in Patent Document 1, “Performing shipment of luggage efficiently and at low cost” A shipping support system that can be used has been proposed.

JP, 2016-139367, A

  However, in the approach aiming at the efficiency improvement of the daily closing work itself like the said prior art, there existed a problem that there was a limit in being able to be efficient.

  Therefore, in the present invention, in view of the above problems, the time required for daily closing work such as shipment of goods, the number of workers efficiently is reduced, and the final order time specifying device for reducing the load of the equipment used for the work Intended to provide.

  One form of the final order time specifying device disclosed is that if it is assumed that the last order time on the day of an orderer follows the probability distribution with the X axis as the time and the Y axis as the occurrence frequency. A final time specifying means for specifying a final order expected time when the percentile value becomes near a predetermined set value in a cumulative distribution function related to distribution, and a final time notifying means for notifying the final order expected time specified by the final time specifying means , And the predetermined setting value is a value set based on an allowable degree that an order can be made on the day after the estimated last order time for the one orderer. Do.

  The disclosed final order time specifying device efficiently reduces the time required for daily closing work such as shipping of goods and the number of workers, and reduces the load on equipment used for the work.

It is a figure explaining an outline of a last order time specifying device concerning this embodiment. It is a functional block diagram of a last order time specifying device according to the present embodiment. It is a figure which shows an example of the data memorize | stored in the performance data storage means which concerns on this Embodiment. It is a figure which shows an example of the data memorize | stored in the performance data storage means which concerns on this Embodiment. It is a figure which shows an example of the probability distribution which concerns on this Embodiment. It is a figure which shows an example of the cumulative distribution function of probability distribution which concerns on this Embodiment. It is a figure which shows an example of the performance data which concern on the last order time which concerns on this Embodiment. It is a figure which shows an example of the performance data which concern on the last order time which concerns on this Embodiment. It is a figure for demonstrating an example of the process by the last time identification means which concerns on this Embodiment. It is a figure for demonstrating the effect by the last order time specification apparatus which concerns on this Embodiment. It is a figure showing the example of hardware constitutions of the last order time specification device concerning this embodiment. It is a flowchart which shows an example of the flow of the process by the last order time specification apparatus which concerns on this Embodiment.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION Embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.
(Operation principle of final order time specifying device according to the present embodiment)
The operation principle of the final order time specifying device (hereinafter, simply referred to as “specific device”) 100 according to the present embodiment will be described using FIGS. 1 to 10.

  The specific device 100 is connected to the user terminal 300 operated by the user 290 via the communication network 310. The communication network 310 may be a wired communication network or a wireless communication network. Further, the user 290 refers to, for example, a person who performs daily closing work (such as shipping work of a product according to an order by the orderer 230).

  The specific device 100 “performs once an orderer 230 a work (day closing work) to collectively ship the items corresponding to the order on the day once a day”, “in one day” "There are multiple orders," "If the above-mentioned work hours for multiple orderers 230 overlap, more manpower, work hours and work facilities will be required. It is preferable to operate in an environment where it is difficult to

  The specifying device 100 calculates (specifies) an appropriate time to start the day-closing operation for each orderer 230 under the above-described restriction conditions, and performs the date-closing operation to the user 290 (user terminal 300). It indicates as the time to start. Then, the user 290 starts the date closing operation at the time when instructed by the specific device 100. By doing this, the specific device 100 can efficiently reduce the time required for the daily closing operation such as shipping of goods and the number of workers, and can reduce the load on the facility used for the operation.

  FIG. 2 is a functional block diagram of the identification device 100. As shown in FIG. 2, the identification device 100 includes a final time specifying unit 110, a final time notifying unit 120, and a record data storage unit 130. The performance data storage unit 130 is disposed outside the specific device 100 instead of being provided to the specific device 100, and is connected to the specific device 100 via the communication network 310. It may be in the form of exchanging data.

  The result data storage unit 130 stores, for each orderer 230, result data of the last order time 240 for each day in a predetermined period. FIGS. 3 and 4 are diagrams showing an example of data stored in the result data storage means 130. FIG. In FIGS. 3 and 4, actual data is sorted based on the final order time 240.

  As shown in FIG. 3, for the orderer 230: “0001-00”, the actual data storage means 130 has a final order time 240 of April 30, 2016: “11:13”, January 24, 2017. Last order time 240: data such as "12:55" is stored. In addition, as shown in FIG. 4, the actual data storage means 130 is the orderer 230: “0016-00”, last order time 240 of August 3, 2016: “9:19”, January 2017 Last order time on the 11th 240: Data such as "9:36" is stored.

  The final time specifying unit 110 processes the final order time 240 of the current day according to the probability distribution 210 with the X axis as the time and the Y axis as the occurrence frequency for one orderer 230. The final time specifying means 110 specifies, as the final order expected time 260, a time at which the percentile value 280 becomes near the predetermined set value 250 in the cumulative distribution function 220 according to the one probability distribution 210. The final order expected time 260 is a time when it is expected that the final order of the current day will be made with respect to one orderer 230 under a predetermined precondition.

  As shown in FIG. 5, the probability distribution 210 may be a Poisson distribution (binomial distribution), or may be a normal distribution, an exponential distribution, a gamma distribution, etc. It is not limited. As shown in FIG. 6, assuming that the probability distribution 210 is a Poisson distribution, the cumulative distribution function 220 has a shape in which the percentile value 280 increases as the time becomes later.

  Also, as shown in FIGS. 3 and 4, the probability distribution 210 is a frequency distribution of actual data related to the last order time 240 for each orderer 230 and each day during a predetermined period (X axis: time, Y axis: occurrence) Frequency). As shown in FIGS. 7 and 8, assuming that the probability distribution 210 is the frequency distribution (X axis: time, Y axis: frequency of occurrence) of actual data according to the final order time 240, a cumulative distribution function (cumulative relative frequency) 220 Forms a shape in which the percentile value 280 increases as the time is later. As shown in FIGS. 7 and 8, the shape of the cumulative distribution function 220 is different for each orderer 230.

  Here, the predetermined set value 250 is a value set based on the degree to which an order can be made after the estimated last order time 260 for the orderer 230 of one day. That is, on the day, the predetermined set value 250 is relatively large when it is desired not to generate an order after the final order expected time 260 as much as possible, and the predetermined set value when the order after the final order estimated time 260 can be permitted to some extent. 250 is relatively small.

  Also, the degree to which an order can be placed after the final order expected time 260 may be considered as the probability that an order will be placed after the final order estimated time 260, in which case the predetermined set value 250 is “100 (%)-Probability of order being placed after final order expected time 260 (%) ". The degree to which an order can be made after the final order expected time 260 is appropriately set according to the number of orders on the day, the number of personnel who can be input to the day, and the like.

  An example of processing by the final time specifying unit 110 will be described with reference to FIGS. 3, 4 and 9. At this time, the probability distribution 210 is a frequency distribution (X-axis: time, Y-axis: occurrence frequency) of the actual data of the last order time 240 for each orderer 230 and each day in a predetermined period, and a predetermined set value 250 Is 90 (%).

  As shown in FIG. 3, for the orderer 230: “0001-00”, the final time specifying unit 110 has a percentile value 280 corresponding to the final order time 240 larger than a predetermined set value 250: “90 (%)”. And, the earliest data: “17:16” is specified as the final order expected time 260. Further, as shown in FIG. 4, the final time specifying means 110 sets the percentile value 280 corresponding to the final order time 240 to a predetermined set value 250: “90 (%)” for the orderer 230: “0016-00”. Larger and earliest time data: “17:19” is identified as the final order expected time 260.

  The final time specifying unit 110 performs the above process for each orderer 230 and specifies the final order expected time 260 for each orderer 230. As shown in FIG. 9, the final time specifying means 110 sets the final order expected time 260 corresponding to each orderer 230 to (0001-00, 17:16), (0016-00, 17:19), ..., (0055-00, 16:52), respectively.

  In the data shown in FIG. 3, the final time specifying means 110 makes the percentile value 280 corresponding to the final order time 240 smaller than a predetermined set value 250: “90 (%)” for the orderer 230: “0001-00”. And, the data having the latest time: “17:16” (percentile value 280: 89.56) may be specified as the final order expected time 260. Also in the data shown in FIG. 4, the final time specifying unit 110 similarly sets the percentile value 280 corresponding to the final order time 240 to the predetermined set value 250: 90 (%) for the orderer 230: “0016-00”. "Smaller data with the latest time:" 17:10 "(percentile value 280: 87. 50) may be specified as the final order expected time 260.

  Further, in the data shown in FIG. 3, the final time specifying means 110 sets the percentile value 280 corresponding to the final order time 240 to a predetermined set value 250: “90 (%)” for the orderer 230: “0001-00”. The closest data to: “17:16” (percentile value 280: 90. 11) may be specified as the final order expected time 260. Also in the data shown in FIG. 4, the final time specifying unit 110 similarly sets the percentile value 280 corresponding to the final order time 240 to the predetermined set value 250: 90 (%) for the orderer 230: “0016-00”. Data closest to “: 17:19” (percentile value 280: 91.67) may be specified as the final order expected time 260.

  The final time notifying means 120 notifies the user 290 (user terminal 300) of the final order expected time 260 specified by the final time specifying means 110. The final time notification means 120 may notify the user 290 of the final order expected time 260 as the time to start the day-closing operation for one orderer 230.

  Further, the final time notification means 120 allows the user 290 to select one of the timings when the “time” of the current day is the same as the final order expected time 260 or the “time” of the current day is a predetermined time before the final order expected time 260. The notification may be made to start the daily closing work for the orderer 230.

  The specifying apparatus 100 specifies the final order expected time 260 for each orderer 230 by performing processing by the last time specifying unit 110 and the last time notifying unit 120 for each of the plurality of orderers 230, and specifies the specified final order. The estimated time 260 is notified to the user 290.

FIG. 10 is a diagram for explaining the effect of the identification device 100 and showing a change in the amount of work per unit time before and after the identification device 100 is introduced. In FIG. 10, the amount of work per unit time before introduction is shown by a solid line, and that after introduction is shown by a dotted line. Before the introduction of the specific device 100, the daily closing work pertaining to a plurality of orderers 230 is performed simultaneously from 17:00. On the other hand, after the specific device 100 is introduced, the final order expected time 260 pertaining to each orderer 230 is taken as the start time of the daily closing work pertaining to each orderer 230, and the start time of the daily closing work is advanced. As shown in FIG. 10, the specific device 100 efficiently reduces the time required for daily closing work such as shipping of goods and the number of workers by its introduction, and reduces the load on the facility used for the work. be able to.
(Hardware configuration of final order time specifying device according to the present embodiment)

  A hardware configuration example of the identification device 100 will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 11 is a diagram showing an example of the hardware configuration of the identifying apparatus 100. As shown in FIG. As illustrated in FIG. 11, the specific device 100 includes a central processing unit (CPU) 410, a read-only memory (ROM) 420, a random access memory (RAM) 430, an auxiliary storage device 440, a communication I / F 450, and an input device 460. , An output device (display device) 470, and a recording medium I / F 480.

  The CPU 410 is a device that executes a program stored in the ROM 420, performs arithmetic processing on data developed (loaded) in the RAM 430 in accordance with instructions of the program, and controls the entire specific device 100. The ROM 420 stores programs and data that the CPU 410 executes. When the CPU 410 executes a program stored in the ROM 420, the RAM 430 develops (loads) a program or data to be executed, and temporarily holds operation data during operation.

  The auxiliary storage device 440 is a device that stores an operating system (OS) that is basic software, an application program according to the present embodiment, and the like together with related data, and, for example, an HDD (Hard Disc Drive), a flash memory, etc. It is.

  The communication I / F 450 is an interface for connecting to a communication network 310 such as a wired / wireless LAN (Local Area Network) or the Internet, and exchanging data with the other devices 130 and 300 that provide a communication function.

The input device 460 is a device for performing data input to the specific device 100 such as a keyboard or a touch panel. The output device 470 is a device configured by an LCD (Liquid Crystal Display) or the like, and functions as a user interface when the user uses the function of the specific device 100 or when performing various settings.
The recording medium I / F 480 is an interface for transmitting and receiving data to and from the recording medium 490 such as a CD-ROM, a DVD-ROM, and a USB memory.

Each unit included in the specific device 100 may be realized by the CPU 410 executing a program corresponding to each unit stored in the ROM 420 or the auxiliary storage device 440. In addition, each means included in the specific device 100 may be realized as a process in which the process related to each means is implemented as hardware. In addition, the identification device 100 may read the program according to the present invention from an external server apparatus via the communication I / F 450 or read the program according to the present invention from the recording medium 490 via the recording medium I / F 480. The program may be executed on a computer.
(Example of processing by the final order time specifying device according to the present embodiment)

  An example of the flow of processing by the identification device 100 will be described using FIGS. 3, 4, 9, 10, 12. FIG. 12 is a flowchart showing an example of the flow of processing by the identification device 100. Here, the probability distribution 210 is a frequency distribution (X-axis: time, Y-axis: occurrence frequency) of actual data of the last order time 240 for each orderer 230 and each day in a predetermined period, and a predetermined set value 250 Is 90 (%).

  The final time specifying means 110 at S10 sorts the actual result data of the last order time 240 for each orderer 230 and for each order in the predetermined period stored in the actual data storage means 130 based on the last order time 240 Do. As shown in FIG. 3, for example, with respect to the orderer 230: “0001-00”, the final time specifying unit 110 has a final order time 240 of April 30, 2016: “11:13”, January 2017 Last order time on the 24th 240: Generate data such as "12:55".

  In S10, for the orderer 230, the percentile value 280 is "90 (%) in the cumulative relative frequency of the actual order data of the final order time 240 for each orderer 230 and for each orderer 230 with respect to one orderer 230 in S10. The time to be "near" is specified as the final order expected time 260. As shown in FIG. 3, for example, with respect to the orderer 230: “0001-00”, the final time specifying unit 110 sets the percentile value 280 corresponding to the final order time 240 to a predetermined set value 250: “90 (%)”. Larger and earliest time data: “17:16” is specified as the final order expected time 260.

  In S20, the final time notification means 120 notifies (notifies) the final order expected time 260 specified in S10 to the user terminal 300 as the time to start the day-closing operation for one orderer 230. As another form of the notification, the date is closed for one orderer 230 at the timing when the “time” of the day is the same as the final order expected time 260 or the “time” of the day is a predetermined time before the final order expected time 260 It may be in the form of notification to start work.

  The final time notification means 120 notifies the user terminal 300 of, for example, the final order expected time 260: "17:16" as the time when the order closing work for the orderer 230: "0001-00" should start. .

  In S30, when there is an orderer 320 to which the process in S10 and S20 is not applied (Yes in S30), the process proceeds to S10. For example, when the orderer 230: "0016-00" is not processed yet, at S10, which is a transition from S30, the final time specifying unit 110 changes the orderer 230: "0016-00" on August 3, 2016. Final order time 240: “9:19”, January 11, 2017 final order time 240: “9:36”, etc. (see FIG. 4).

  Further, as shown in FIG. 4, the final time specifying means 110 sets the percentile value 280 corresponding to the final order time 240 to a predetermined set value 250: “90 (%)” for the orderer 230: “0016-00”. Larger and earliest time data: “17:19” is identified as the final order expected time 260.

  Next, in S20, the final time notification means 120 requests the user terminal 300 to calculate the final order expected time 260: "17:19", and the orderer 230: time to start the day-closing operation regarding "0016-00" Notify as.

  On the other hand, in S30, when there is no orderer 320 to whom the process in S10 and S20 is not applied, that is, when the process in S10 and S20 is applied to all orderers 230 targeted for process application (No in S30) The processing of the device 100 ends.

  As shown in FIG. 9, when the processes in S10 and S20 have been applied to all the process application target orderers 230, the final time specifying unit 110 determines the final order expected time 260 corresponding to each orderer 230. , (0001-00, 17:16), (0016-00, 17:19),..., (0055-00, 16:52), respectively. Then, the final time notification means 120 instructs the user terminal 300 to obtain a final order expected time 260 corresponding to each orderer 230: "0001-00, 0016-00, ..., 0055-00": "17:16. 17: 19 ... 16: 52 "is notified as the time to start the closing work for each orderer 230.

  It should be noted that, unlike the flow of the process described above, the process may be shifted to the process in S20 after the process in S10 is performed once for all the order subjects 230 to which the process application is applied. That is, as long as the process contents described as the operation principle of the specific device 100 are satisfied, any other process flow may be adopted.

  The user 290 starts the day-closing operation for the orderer 230 corresponding to each time at the time (= the final order expected time 260) at which the day-closing operation should be started notified from the specific device 100.

  As shown in FIG. 10, when the identification apparatus 100 performs the above-described processing and the user 290 starts the date-closing operation at the time according to the notification from the identification apparatus 100, the time to start the date-closing operation is Move forward. As a result, the time required for the daily tightening operation and the number of workers are efficiently reduced, and the load on the equipment used for the operation is reduced.

  As mentioned above, although the embodiment of the present invention was explained in full detail, the present invention is not limited to the specific embodiment concerned, and various modifications can be made within the scope of the subject matter of the present invention described in the claims.・ Change is possible.

100 last order time specifying device 110 last time specifying means 120 last time notifying means 130 actual data storage means 210 probability distribution 220 cumulative distribution function 230 orderer 240 last order time 250 predetermined set value 260 last order expected time 270 one in a predetermined period Result data 280 Percentile value 290 User 300 User terminal 310 Communication network 410 CPU for last order time for orderer
420 ROM
430 RAM
440 auxiliary storage 450 communication interface 460 input device 470 output device 480 recording medium interface 490 recording medium

Claims (13)

If it is assumed that the last order time of the day according to one probability distribution with X axis as time and Y axis as occurrence frequency for one orderer, the percentile value is predetermined in the cumulative distribution function according to the one probability distribution A final time specifying means for specifying a final order estimated time that is near the set value;
Final time notifying means for notifying the final order estimated time specified by the final time specifying means;
A final order time specifying device characterized in that the predetermined setting value is a value set based on the degree of being able to place an order on the day after the estimated last order time for the one orderer. .   The final order time specifying device according to claim 1, wherein the one probability distribution is daily performance data of the last order time for the one orderer in a predetermined period.   The final time specifying means specifies, for the actual data, data having a percentile value corresponding to each of the actual data greater than the predetermined set value and having the earliest time as the expected final order time. The final order time specifying device according to claim 2.   The final time specifying means specifies, for the actual data, data having a percentile value corresponding to each of the actual data smaller than the predetermined set value and having the latest time as the final order expected time. The final order time specifying device according to claim 2.   The final time specifying means specifies, as the final order estimated time, data in which a percentile value corresponding to each of the actual results data is closest to the predetermined set value, with respect to the actual result data. Last order time specification device.   By performing processing by the final time specifying means and the final time notifying means for a plurality of the orderers, the final order estimated time is specified for each orderer, and the final order estimated time is notified. The final order time specifying device according to any one of claims 1 to 5, characterized in that The cumulative distribution function according to the one probability distribution, when the final time specifying means regards the last order time of the day according to the one probability distribution with the X axis as the time and the Y axis as the occurrence frequency for one orderer Identifying a final order expected time at which the percentile value is near a predetermined set value at
The final time notifying means notifying the final order estimated time specified by the final time specifying means;
A final order time specifying method characterized in that the predetermined setting value is a value set based on the degree of being able to place an order on the day after the expected last order time for the one orderer. .   The final order time specifying method according to claim 7, wherein the one probability distribution is daily performance data of the last order time for the one orderer in a predetermined period.   The final time specifying means specifies, for the actual data, data having a percentile value corresponding to each of the actual data greater than the predetermined set value and having the earliest time as the expected final order time. The last order time specifying method according to claim 8.   The final time specifying means specifies, for the actual data, data having a percentile value corresponding to each of the actual data smaller than the predetermined set value and having the latest time as the final order expected time. The last order time specifying method according to claim 8.   9. The apparatus according to claim 8, wherein the final time specifying means specifies, as the final order expected time, data having a percentile value corresponding to each of the actual results data closest to the predetermined set value. How to specify the last order time for.   By performing processing by the final time specifying means and the final time notifying means for a plurality of the orderers, the final order estimated time is specified for each orderer, and the final order estimated time is notified. The final order time specifying method according to any one of claims 7 to 11, characterized in that A final order time specification program for causing a computer to execute the method according to any one of claims 7 to 12.

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