JP2018126038A - Power generation amount prediction device, power generation amount prediction method, and power generation amount prediction system - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To identify a variation tendency of a power generation amount in a specific area while considering wind directions to enable accurate prediction of the power generation amount.SOLUTION: A power generation amount prediction device comprises: a storage unit for previously storing first solar radiation amount past information showing a past solar radiation amount of a first location positioned on the windward side of a specific area and second solar radiation amount past information showing a past solar radiation amount of a second location that is opposite to the first location while interposing the specific area between the first location and second location and is positioned on the leeward side of the specific area; a variation tendency calculation unit for identifying a variation tendency of a solar radiation amount of the specific area between the first location and second location, on the basis of first solar radiation amount past information and second solar radiation amount past information corresponding to the first solar radiation amount past information; and a power generation amount prediction unit for calculating a predicted solar radiation amount of the specific area on the basis of a first actually measured solar radiation amount of the first location and the variation tendency as well as for predicting a power generation amount of a photovoltaic power generation facility installed in the specific area on the basis of the predicted solar radiation amount.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2

Description

  The present invention relates to a power generation amount prediction device, a power generation amount prediction method, and a power generation amount prediction system.

  For example, there is known a power generation amount prediction device that acquires a cloud moving direction from weather observation data and predicts a power generation amount at a prediction point located downstream in the cloud moving direction. (For example, patent document 1).

JP2015-169621

  Patent Document 1 discloses an apparatus that predicts a power generation amount in a specific region by considering the moving direction of a cloud. In the apparatus according to Patent Document 1, a floating facility such as an offshore power generation apparatus or a floating solar panel is used so that a point where the power generation amount can be observed can be secured within a predetermined region. Since the power generation amount can be observed within a predetermined area, the prediction accuracy can be improved. However, although the apparatus according to Patent Document 1 has a feature of securing an observation point of the power generation amount, based on the moving direction of the cloud and the power generation amount at the observation point, the prediction point located downstream of the observation point It is only predicting the amount of power generation. In the process in which the cloud moves from upstream to downstream, since the change in the amount of solar radiation is not taken into account, there is a possibility that the prediction accuracy of the power generation amount is lowered.

  The main present invention that solves the above-described problem is a power generation amount prediction device that predicts the power generation amount of a photovoltaic power generation facility installed in a specific area, and the past of the first point located upstream from the specific area. First solar radiation amount past information indicating the amount of solar radiation, and second solar radiation amount indicating the past solar radiation amount of the second point facing the first point across the specific region and located leeward than the specific region Based on the storage unit that stores the past information in advance, the first solar radiation amount past information, and the second solar radiation amount past information corresponding to the first solar radiation amount past information, the first point and the first Based on the change tendency calculation unit for specifying the change tendency of the solar radiation amount in the specific area between the two points, the first actually measured solar radiation amount of the first point, and the change tendency, the predicted solar radiation amount of the specific area is calculated. Calculate and specify the specific solar radiation based on the predicted solar radiation Characterized in that it comprises a power generation amount prediction unit for predicting a power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation facilities to be installed in-band, a.

  Other features of the present invention will become apparent from the accompanying drawings and the description of this specification.

  According to the present invention, it is possible to predict the power generation amount with high accuracy since the change tendency of the power generation amount in a specific region is specified while taking the wind direction into consideration.

It is a figure which shows an example of the electric power generation amount prediction system which concerns on this embodiment, and the movement condition of the cloud of a specific area. It is a figure which shows the structural example of the electric power generation amount prediction apparatus which concerns on this embodiment. It is a figure which shows an example of the movement of the cloud in the 1st wind direction which concerns on this embodiment. It is a figure which shows an example of the movement of the cloud in the 2nd wind direction which concerns on this embodiment. It is a figure which shows an example of the past or future change tendency of the solar radiation amount which concerns on this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the structural example of the solar radiation amount past table which concerns on this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the structural example of the solar radiation amount present table which concerns on this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the structural example of the solar radiation amount prediction table which concerns on this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the structural example of the power generation capacity table which concerns on this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the structural example of the electric power generation amount prediction table which concerns on this embodiment. It is a figure which shows an example of the process sequence which concerns on this embodiment.

  At least the following matters will become apparent from the description of this specification and the accompanying drawings. In the following description, parts denoted by the same reference numerals represent the same elements, and the basic configuration and operation thereof are the same.

=== Power Generation Prediction System 1 ===
The power generation amount prediction system 1 will be described as follows with reference to FIG. FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an example of a power generation amount prediction system 1 according to the present embodiment and a cloud movement state in a specific area.

  The power generation amount prediction system 1 predicts the power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 100 in an area where the solar power generation facility 100 is installed (hereinafter referred to as a “specific area”) while taking into consideration the wind direction and the amount of solar radiation. System. As shown in FIG. 1, the specific area is a specific area where the photovoltaic power generation facilities 100 are intensively arranged and is a predetermined area.

  The power generation amount prediction system 1 acquires wind direction information indicating the wind direction from, for example, the Japan Meteorological Agency. Further, the solar radiation amount information indicating the solar radiation amount is acquired from the solar radiation meter 10. The power generation amount prediction system 1 predicts the amount of power generation on the leeward side in the specific region and around the specific region by acquiring the wind direction information of the specific region and specifying the change tendency of the solar radiation amount in the specific region.

  Such a power generation amount prediction system 1 includes a solar radiation meter 10 and a power generation amount prediction device 20.

== Insolation meter 10 ==
The solar radiation meter 10 (10a-10d) is demonstrated as follows, referring FIG.

  The solar radiation meter 10 is an instrument that measures the amount of solar radiation. The specification of the solar radiation meter 10 is not particularly limited, and may be a widely used solar radiation meter. As shown in FIG. 1, each of the solar radiation meters 10a to 10d is arranged around the specific area, for example, at 90 degrees around the specific area. The solar radiation amount information indicating the solar radiation amount measured by the solar radiation meters 10a to 10d is transmitted to the power generation amount prediction device 20 via a communication network (not shown).

== Power Generation Prediction Device 20 ==
The power generation amount prediction apparatus 20 will be described as follows with reference to FIG. FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of the power generation amount prediction apparatus 20 according to the present embodiment.

  The power generation amount prediction device 20 is a device that predicts the future power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation facility 100 in a specific area based on wind direction information, wind speed information acquired from the Japan Meteorological Agency, and solar radiation amount information acquired from the solar radiation meter 10. .

  The power generation amount prediction device 20 includes solar radiation amount information (hereinafter referred to as “sunlight amount current information”) indicating the current and nearest solar radiation amount on the windward side (first point) around the specific area, and wind direction information indicating the wind direction. The function of specifying the change tendency of the amount of solar radiation in the specific area based on the wind speed information indicating the wind speed and the solar radiation amount information indicating the past amount of solar radiation around the specific area (hereinafter referred to as “sunlight amount past information”). Have A change tendency is a tendency that the amount of solar radiation changes with the passage of time from the windward side to the leeward side in a specific area. The calculation of the change tendency will be described in detail in the change tendency calculation unit 21a described later.

  Then, the power generation amount prediction device 20 calculates solar radiation amount information indicating the future solar radiation amount (predicted solar radiation amount) in a specific area (hereinafter referred to as “sun radiation amount prediction information”) from the current solar radiation amount information based on the identified change tendency. Is calculated). In addition, calculation of the future solar radiation amount in a specific area is demonstrated in detail in the solar radiation amount estimation part 21c mentioned later.

  And the future electric power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 100 in a specific area is calculated based on solar radiation amount prediction information. The calculation of the future power generation amount will be described in detail in a power generation amount prediction unit 21e described later.

  As shown in FIG. 2, the power generation amount prediction apparatus 20 having such a function includes an arithmetic processing unit 21, a storage unit 22, an input unit 23, an output unit 24, and a memory 25. ing.

  The arithmetic processing unit 21 is constituted by, for example, a CPU or MPU. The arithmetic processing unit 21 realizes various functions by reading a program stored in the memory 25. The arithmetic processing unit 21 includes a change tendency calculation unit 21a, a predicted region classification unit 21b, a solar radiation amount prediction unit 21c, a power generation capacity calculation unit 21d, and a power generation amount prediction unit 21e. Each component of the arithmetic processing unit 21 will be described later in detail.

  The storage unit 22 is a device that stores programs and various types of information. The storage unit 22 is configured by, for example, a ROM, a RAM, or a flash memory. The storage unit 22 will be described in detail later.

  The input unit 23 is a network interface that inputs various types of information such as solar radiation amount information, wind direction information, and wind speed information from a communication network (not shown) to which the power generation amount prediction device 20 is connected, for example. The output unit 24 is a network interface that outputs various types of information to a communication network to which the power generation amount prediction apparatus 20 is connected, for example. The memory 25 is a device that stores a program for the arithmetic processing unit 21 to process, for example. The memory 25 is composed of, for example, a hard disk drive, SSD, or optical storage device.

<< Change Trend Calculation Unit 21a >>
With reference to FIGS. 2, 3, 4, and 5, the change tendency calculation unit 21a will be described as follows. FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating an example of cloud movement in the first wind direction according to the present embodiment. FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an example of cloud movement in the second wind direction according to the present embodiment. FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating an example of a past or future change tendency of the solar radiation amount according to the present embodiment. In addition, the figure (display screen) which shows arrangement | positioning of the photovoltaic power generation equipment 100 as shown in FIG. 3, FIG. 4 shall be produced by the electric power generation amount prediction apparatus 20 or another apparatus.

  The change tendency calculation unit 21a has a function of calculating the change tendency of the solar radiation amount in the specific area based on the wind direction information, the wind speed information, the current solar radiation amount current information, and the solar radiation amount past information around the specific area.

  As shown in FIG. 3, the function of the change tendency calculation unit 21a in the case of the first wind direction indicating the west wind will be described. The change tendency calculating unit 21a selects two solar radiation meters along the wind direction from the solar radiation meters 10a to 10d based on, for example, wind direction information acquired from the Japan Meteorological Agency. In selecting the solar radiation meter, the change tendency calculating unit 21a draws a first wind direction perpendicular line to the windward side and a second wind direction perpendicular line to the leeward side so as to be in contact with the specific area. And the solar radiation amount meter 10a located in the windward side of a 1st wind direction perpendicular line and the solar radiation amount meter 10b located in the leeward side of a 2nd wind direction perpendicular line are selected. For example, wind speed information is acquired from the Japan Meteorological Agency. By these, the change tendency of the solar radiation amount in a specific area traced from the solar radiation meter 10a toward the solar radiation meter 10b can be calculated. The first wind direction perpendicular line and the second wind direction perpendicular line are virtual lines for selecting the solar radiation meter.

  Also, as shown in FIG. 4, in the case of the second wind direction indicating north-northwest, the first wind direction perpendicular line and the second wind direction perpendicular line are drawn as in FIG. Then, the solar radiation meter 10c located on the windward side of the first wind direction perpendicular line and the solar radiation meter 10d located on the leeward side of the second wind direction perpendicular line are selected. Thereby, the change tendency of the solar radiation amount in a specific area traced from the solar radiation meter 10c toward the solar radiation meter 10d can be calculated.

  Hereinafter, the change tendency calculation unit 21a will be described in more detail with reference to FIG. In the following description, the point where the solar radiation meter 10a is installed is referred to as “first point”, the past solar radiation amount information at the first point is referred to as “first solar radiation amount past information”, and the solar radiation meter 10b is installed. The point to be played is “second point”, and the past solar radiation amount information at the second point is “second solar radiation amount past information”.

  The change tendency calculation unit 21a stores the solar radiation amount current information, the first solar radiation amount past information, and the second solar radiation amount past information in the storage unit 22 (the solar radiation amount past table 22a and the solar radiation amount current table 22b) in order to calculate the change tendency. Read from. The change tendency calculation unit 21a corresponds to the first solar radiation amount past information similar to the solar radiation amount current information measured at the first point and the second solar radiation amount measured at the second point corresponding to the first solar radiation amount past information. Based on the past information, the time until the solar radiation amount (cloud) at the first point reaches the second point and the change in the solar radiation amount (cloud) are calculated. In calculating the change in the amount of solar radiation (clouds), it is preferable to consider the wind speed. As a result, the amount of solar radiation (clouds) measured at the first point and the change in the amount of solar radiation (clouds) until reaching the second point under conditions such as the past wind direction and wind speed (hereinafter referred to as “sunlight amount”). Called "change"). In the calculation method of the solar radiation amount change, the first solar radiation amount past information at a predetermined time is compared with the second solar radiation amount past information after a predetermined time, and it is determined whether or not the error is within a predetermined range. When the error is within a predetermined range, it is determined that the second solar radiation amount past information is the solar radiation amount past information corresponding to the first solar radiation amount past information. Within the predetermined range is an arbitrary numerical value set in advance. Thereby, the change tendency calculation part 21a can calculate the change of the solar radiation amount (cloud) of the 2nd point corresponding to the solar radiation amount (cloud) of the 1st point. The predetermined time is preferably a time calculated in consideration of the distance between the first point and the second point and the wind speed.

  The change tendency of the solar radiation amount by the change tendency calculation part 21a is demonstrated concretely, referring FIG. 5 (A)-(D). FIG. 5 (a) shows an example of the change tendency of the solar radiation amount at the first point, FIG. 5 (a) shows an example of the change tendency of the solar radiation amount at the first area, and FIG. An example of the change tendency of the solar radiation amount is shown, and FIG. 5D shows an example of the change tendency of the solar radiation amount at the second point. However, in FIGS. 5A to 5D, the following description will be given assuming that a past change trend is created based on the past time 11:00 as an example.

  Based on the solar radiation amount current information, the first solar radiation amount past information, and the solar radiation amount change, for example, a change tendency of the solar radiation amount at the first point shown in FIG. As shown in FIGS. 5 (a) and 5 (c), the change tendency calculation unit 21a performs the first time as shown in FIGS. 5 (a) and 5 (c) based on the time until the solar radiation amount (cloud) at the first point reaches the second point and the solar radiation amount change. A first change tendency of the solar radiation amount in the first region and a second change tendency of the solar radiation amount in the second region corresponding to the change tendency of the solar radiation amount at the point are calculated. Further, as shown in FIG. 5D, the third change tendency of the solar radiation amount at the second point corresponding to the change tendency of the solar radiation amount at the first point is calculated. The first area and the second area refer to areas in a specific area that are classified by a predicted area classification unit 21b described later. As described above, the change trend calculation unit 21a corresponds to the change tendency of the solar radiation amount at the first point, the first change tendency, the second change tendency and the first change of the solar radiation amount in the first region, the second region and the second point. 3 Change tendency can be calculated. Thereby, the solar radiation amount prediction part 21c mentioned later respond | corresponds to the said solar radiation amount present information based on the solar radiation amount present information in the 1st point, the 1st change tendency of the solar radiation quantity, the 2nd change tendency, and the 3rd change tendency. Future solar radiation amount prediction information in the first area, the second area, and the second point can be calculated.

  In addition, the change tendency calculation part 21a performs the calculation of the solar radiation amount change mentioned above and the calculation of the change tendency of solar radiation amount about all wind directions. Thereby, the electric power generation amount prediction apparatus 20 can predict the electric power generation amount according to a wind direction based on the 1st change tendency in a whole wind direction, a 2nd change tendency, and a 3rd change tendency.

<< Predicted area section 21b >>
With reference to FIG. 3 and FIG. 4, the predicted area classification unit 21 b will be described as follows.

  The predicted area classification unit 21b has a function of dividing a specific area into an upwind area and an leeward area. As shown in FIG. 3, in the case of the first wind direction indicating the west wind, the predicted area classification unit 21 b draws a lane line in the direction perpendicular to the first wind direction (north-south direction) so as to bisect the specific area. In addition, as shown in FIG. 4, in the case of the second wind direction indicating north-northwest, the predicted area dividing unit 21b divides the second wind direction and the vertical direction (northeast-east direction) so as to bisect the specific area. pull. In a specific area partitioned by a lane line, the windward side is the first area and the leeward side is the second area. Thereby, since the change tendency calculation part 21a mentioned above can calculate the 1st change tendency of the solar radiation amount in a 1st area, and can calculate the 2nd change tendency of the solar radiation quantity in a 2nd area, it predicts within a specific area. The accuracy of the amount of solar radiation can be increased. In addition, every time the wind direction changes, the predicted area classification unit 21b classifies the specific area into the first area and the second area by drawing a dividing line as described above. The lane marking is a virtual line for dividing a specific area.

<< Insolation amount prediction unit 21c >>
The solar radiation amount prediction unit 21c will be described as follows with reference to FIG. However, FIGS. 5A to 5D will be described below assuming that the trend of change in the amount of solar radiation in the future is created based on the current time of 11:00 as an example.

The solar radiation amount prediction unit 21c has a function of predicting the future solar radiation amount from the first to third change trends of the solar radiation amount. The solar radiation amount prediction unit 21 c acquires the solar radiation amount current information from the solar radiation amount current table 22 b of the storage unit 22. FIG. 5A shows that the current solar radiation amount information is “180” W / m ² when the current time is 11:00. As shown in FIG. 5 (a), the solar radiation amount predicting unit 21c is based on the current solar radiation amount information at the first point, and based on the first change tendency, the future solar radiation amount (first predicted solar radiation). Information) (hereinafter referred to as “first solar radiation amount prediction information”). Further, as shown in FIG. 5 (c), information indicating the future solar radiation amount (second predicted solar radiation amount) in the second region based on the second change tendency based on the current solar radiation amount information at the first point. (Hereinafter referred to as “second solar radiation amount prediction information”). Further, as shown in FIG. 5 (d), based on the current amount of solar radiation at the first point, the information indicating the future amount of solar radiation at the second point based on the third change tendency (hereinafter referred to as “third solar radiation”). This is referred to as “quantity prediction information”. The solar radiation amount prediction unit 21c transmits the predicted first solar radiation amount prediction information, second solar radiation amount prediction information, and third solar radiation amount prediction information to the storage unit 22 described later.

Specifically, when the solar radiation amount current information at the first point shown in FIG. 5 (a) is “180” W / m ² , based on the first change tendency shown in FIG. Future first solar radiation amount prediction information of the first region at 11:05 is predicted to be “180” W / m ² . Similarly, based on the second change tendency shown in FIG. 5C, the future second solar radiation amount prediction information of the second region at 11:10 of the future time is predicted to be “180” W / m ^2. . Similarly, based on the third change tendency shown in FIG. 5D, the future third solar radiation amount prediction information at the second point at 11:15 of the future time is predicted to be “180” W / m ^2. . Thereby, the solar radiation amount prediction part 21c is based on the solar radiation amount present information of the 1st point, the 1st solar radiation amount prediction information of the 1st area 5 minutes later, and the 2nd solar radiation amount prediction of the 2nd area 10 minutes later Information, third solar radiation amount prediction information of the second point after 15 minutes can be calculated. Note that the predicted future time is a time that is just an example, and is a time that is arbitrarily changed depending on the size of the specific area.

<< Power generation capacity calculation unit 21d >>
The power generation capacity calculation unit 21d will be described in detail with reference to FIGS. 3 and 4 as follows.

  The power generation capacity calculation unit 21d has a function of calculating the power generation capacity of each of the first region and the second region. The power generation capacity calculation unit 21d includes the first power generation capacities of all the solar power generation facilities 101a to 101g (111a to 111g) arranged in the first area and all the solar power generation equipments 102a to 102a arranged in the second area. A second power generation capacity of 102 g (112a to 112g) is calculated. Specifically, as shown in FIG. 3, in the case of west wind, the first power generation capacity is the total power generation capacity of the photovoltaic power generation facilities 101a to 101g on the windward side of the lane line, and the second power generation capacity is the lane line. It is the total power generation capacity of the photovoltaic power generation facilities 102a to 102g on the leeward side. In addition, as shown in FIG. 4, in the case of north-northwest wind, the first power generation capacity is the total power generation capacity of the solar power generation facilities 111 a to 111 g on the windward side of the lane line, and the second power generation capacity is the lane line. It is the total power generation capacity of the photovoltaic power generation facilities 112a to 112g on the leeward side. In order to calculate the first power generation capacity and the second power generation capacity, the power generation capacity calculation unit 21d refers to a power generation capacity table 22d described later, and based on the angle formed by the wind direction with respect to the north-south direction, Calculate the power generation capacity in two regions. For example, when the north-northwest wind shown in FIG. 4 forms 12 degrees with respect to the north-south direction, the power generation capacity calculation unit 21d refers to the power generation capacity table 22d, and the power generation capacity in the first region is calculated as 5300 kW. Is calculated to be 4700 kW.

<< Power generation amount prediction unit 21e >>
The power generation amount prediction unit 21e will be described in detail with reference to FIG.

  The power generation amount prediction unit 21e has a function of calculating the power generation amounts of the first region and the second region. The power generation amount prediction unit 21e includes the first power generation amount of all the solar power generation facilities 101a to 101g arranged in the first region and the second power generation of all the solar power generation facilities 102a to 102g arranged in the second region. Calculate the amount. Specifically, as shown in FIG. 3, the power generation amount prediction unit 21e refers to the solar radiation amount prediction table 22c and the power generation capacity table 22d in the storage unit 22, and is the first region predicted by the solar radiation amount prediction unit 21c. The first solar radiation amount prediction information and the second solar radiation amount prediction information are multiplied by the first power generation capacity of the first region and the second power generation capacity of the second region calculated by the power generation capacity calculation unit 21d, and a predetermined coefficient is obtained. To calculate the first power generation amount in the first region and the second power generation amount in the second region. The power generation amount prediction unit 21e is information indicating the calculated first power generation amount (hereinafter referred to as “first power generation amount information”) and information indicating the second power generation amount (hereinafter referred to as “second power generation amount information”). .) Is transmitted to the storage unit 22. The predetermined coefficient refers to, for example, “loss coefficient” published in “NEDO Technology Development Organization Photovoltaic Power Generation Introduction Guidebook”.

<< Storage unit 22 >>
The storage unit 22 has a function of storing various data for the arithmetic processing unit 21 to execute processing. The storage unit 22 stores a solar radiation amount past table 22a, a solar radiation amount current table 22b, a solar radiation amount prediction table 22c, a power generation capacity table 22d, and a power generation amount prediction table 22e.

The solar radiation amount past table 22a will be described in detail with reference to FIG. FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of the solar radiation amount past table 22a according to the present embodiment. The solar radiation amount past table 22a is a table for storing the past solar radiation amount information measured by the solar radiation meters 10a to 10d for the change tendency calculating unit 21a to specify the change tendency. The solar radiation amount past table 22a includes, for example, a “date and time” item indicating a past date and time, a “wind direction” item and a “wind speed” item at the date and time, an “A” item measured by each of the solar radiation meters 10a to 10d, “ The “B” item, the “C” item, and the “D” item are stored in association with each other. Specifically, when “date and time” is “July 9th 12:00”, “wind direction” indicates “west” wind, “wind speed” indicates “2” m / s, and “sunlight” The solar radiation meter 10a is “200” W / m ² , the solar radiation meter 10b is “150” W / m ² , the solar radiation meter 10c is “110” W / m ² , and the solar radiation meter 10d is “130” W / m ² . m ² is indicated. Note that the format of the solar radiation amount past table 22a is an example, and any database format that can be referred to by the arithmetic processing unit 21 may be used.

  The solar radiation amount current table 22b will be described in detail with reference to FIG. FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of the solar radiation amount current table 22b according to the present embodiment. The solar radiation amount current table 22b is a table that stores the solar radiation amount current information measured by the solar radiation meters 10a to 10d for the solar radiation amount prediction unit 21c to predict the solar radiation amount. The solar radiation amount current table 22b is measured by, for example, a “date and time” item indicating the current date and the closest date, a “wind direction” item indicating the wind direction and a “wind speed” item, and the respective solar radiation meters 10a to 10d. The “A” item, the “B” item, the “C” item, and the “D” item are stored in association with each other. It should be noted that the format of the solar radiation amount current table 22b is an example, and any database format that can be referred to by the arithmetic processing unit 21 may be used.

  The solar radiation amount prediction table 22c will be described in detail with reference to FIG. FIG. 8 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of the solar radiation amount prediction table 22c according to the present embodiment. The solar radiation amount prediction table 22c is a table that stores the first solar radiation amount prediction information and the second solar radiation amount prediction information predicted by the solar radiation amount prediction unit 21c. The solar radiation amount prediction table 22c includes, for example, a “date and time” item indicating the date and time ahead of the predicted time, a “wind direction” item at the date and time, a “first region” item indicating the first solar radiation amount prediction information, and second solar radiation amount prediction information. Is stored in association with the “second region” item. Note that the format of the solar radiation amount prediction table 22c is an example, and any database format that can be referred to by the arithmetic processing unit 21 may be used.

  The power generation capacity table 22d will be described in detail with reference to FIG. FIG. 9 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of the power generation capacity table 22d according to the present embodiment. The power generation capacity table 22d includes information indicating the first power generation capacity (hereinafter referred to as “first power generation capacity” for the power generation capacity calculation unit 21d to calculate the power generation capacity and the power generation amount prediction unit 21e to predict the power generation amount. And a table for storing information indicating the second power generation capacity (hereinafter referred to as “second power generation capacity information”). The power generation capacity table 22d includes, for example, an “angle” item indicating an angle formed by a lane marking with respect to the north-south direction, a “first region” item indicating a first power generation capacity at that angle, and a “first” indicating a second power generation capacity. “2 regions” items are stored in association with each other. Specifically, when the “angle” is “4”, the “first region” indicating the first generation capacity information indicates “4800” kW, and the “second region” indicating the second generation capacity information is “5200”. “Indicates kW. In FIG. 9, for convenience of explanation, the total of the first power generation capacity information and the second power generation capacity information is shown to be 10000 kW, but FIG. 9 is created according to the total value of the power generation capacity in the specific area. I will do it. The format of the power generation capacity table 22d is an example, and any database format that can be referred to by the arithmetic processing unit 21 may be used.

  The power generation amount prediction table 22e will be described in detail with reference to FIG. FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of the power generation amount prediction table 22e according to the present embodiment. The power generation amount prediction table 22e is a table that stores the first power generation amount information and the second power generation amount information predicted by the power generation amount prediction unit 21e. The power generation amount prediction table 22e includes, for example, a “date and time” item indicating the date and time ahead of the prediction time, a “first region” item indicating the first power generation amount prediction information at the date and time, and “second” indicating the second power generation amount prediction information. “Region” items are stored in association with each other. In FIG. 10, only the power generation amount prediction information of the first region and the second region is associated, but the power generation amount prediction information of the second point may be stored in association with each other. Moreover, the format of the electric power generation amount prediction table 22e shows an example, and may be a database format that can be referred to by the arithmetic processing unit 21.

=== Processing flow ===
The processing procedure of the power generation amount prediction system 1 will be described as follows with reference to FIG. FIG. 11 is a diagram illustrating an example of a processing procedure according to the present embodiment. In FIG. 11, various tables of the storage unit 22 are shown on the right side, and the processing content of the arithmetic processing unit 21 is shown on the left side. An arrow between the arithmetic processing unit 21 and the storage unit 22 indicates the flow of information.

  The power generation amount prediction system 1 acquires the solar radiation amount past information from all the solar radiation meters 10 arranged around the specific area, and stores the solar radiation amount past information in the solar radiation amount past table 22 a of the storage unit 22. Further, the power generation capacity information of all the photovoltaic power generation facilities 100 arranged in the specific area is stored in the power generation capacity table 22 d of the storage unit 22. When the specific area is divided into the first area and the second area, the first generation capacity information of the first area and the second generation capacity information of the second area are calculated and stored. That is, in the power generation amount prediction system 1, the solar radiation amount past information and the power generation capacity in the specific area are calculated in advance and stored in the storage unit 22 before the future power generation amount is calculated.

  First, the change tendency calculation unit 21a acquires the wind direction information, the wind speed information, and the solar radiation amount current information of the first point from the solar radiation amount current table 22b stored in the storage unit 22 (S100). In order to calculate the change tendency, the change trend calculation unit 21a acquires the solar radiation amount past information similar to the solar radiation amount current information from the solar radiation amount past table 22a stored in the storage unit 22 (S101). The change tendency calculation unit 21a identifies the first point and the second point based on the wind direction information, the wind speed information, and the solar radiation amount past information, and the first change tendency of the first region and the second point of the second region in the specific region. A change tendency is calculated (S102). The first and second change tendencies are stored in the storage unit 22 in advance in a format as shown in FIGS. Furthermore, the change tendency calculation unit 21a may calculate the third change tendency of the second point around the specific area and store it in the storage unit 22 in advance.

  Next, the predicted area classification unit 21b classifies the specific area into the first area and the second area based on the current wind direction information (S103). The predicted area classification unit 21b draws a lane marking in the direction perpendicular to the wind direction so as to bisect the specific area. The predicted area classification unit 21b sets the leeward side of the lane line as the first area and the leeward side of the lane line as the second area in the specific area.

  Next, the solar radiation amount prediction unit 21c predicts the solar radiation amount based on the first and second change trends and the current solar radiation amount current information, and the future solar radiation amount (first solar radiation amount) in the first region and the second region. (Amount prediction information, second solar radiation amount prediction information) is calculated (S104). The solar radiation amount prediction unit 21c outputs the calculated first solar radiation amount prediction information and second solar radiation amount prediction information to the storage unit 22 (the solar radiation amount prediction table 22c). Furthermore, the solar radiation amount prediction unit 21c may calculate the future solar radiation amount (third solar radiation amount prediction information) at the second point based on the third change tendency.

  Next, the power generation capacity calculation unit 21d calculates the power generation capacity of each of the first region and the second region divided by the prediction region classification unit 21b (S105). The power generation capacity calculation unit 21d acquires the first power generation capacity information of the first region and the second power generation capacity information of the second region from the power generation capacity table 22d stored in the storage unit 22 based on the current wind direction information. .

  Next, the power generation amount prediction unit 21e calculates the power generation amounts of the first region and the second region divided by the prediction region classification unit 21b (S106). The power generation amount prediction unit 21e acquires the first solar radiation amount prediction information and the second solar radiation amount prediction information from the solar radiation amount prediction table 22c stored in the storage unit 22 (S106). The power generation amount prediction unit 21e calculates the first power generation amount information of the first region by calculating the product of the first power generation capacity information, the first solar radiation amount prediction information, and a predetermined coefficient (loss coefficient). Similarly, the second power generation amount information of the second region is calculated by calculating the product of the second power generation capacity information, the second solar radiation amount prediction information, and a predetermined coefficient (loss coefficient). The power generation amount prediction unit 21e outputs the calculated first power generation amount information and second power generation amount information to the storage unit 22 (power generation amount prediction table 22e) (S106). The predicted area classification unit 21b changes the settings of the first area and the second area according to the change in the wind direction (S107).

  In addition, said embodiment is for making an understanding of this invention easy, and is not for limiting and interpreting this invention. The present invention can be changed and improved without departing from the gist thereof, and the present invention includes equivalents thereof. For example, the following embodiments are also included.

=== Other Embodiments ===
<< Insolation meter >>
In the above description, the solar radiation meter is described as being included in the power generation amount prediction system 1, but is not limited thereto. The power generation amount prediction system 1 may not include the solar radiation meter, and for example, the solar radiation amount information may be acquired from the Japan Meteorological Agency.

  In the above description, the solar radiation meter has been described as being arranged at 90 degrees substantially uniformly around the specific area, but is not limited thereto. For example, a large number of solar radiation meters 10 that exceed four may be arranged around a specific area. Thereby, the prediction accuracy of the future solar radiation amount improves.

<< Change Trend Calculation Unit 21a >>
In the above description, the change tendency calculation unit 21a is described as calculating the change tendency of the solar radiation amount in the specific area based on the wind direction information, the wind speed information, the current solar radiation amount information, and the solar radiation amount past information around the specific area. However, the present invention is not limited to this. The change tendency calculation unit 21a may calculate the change tendency of the solar radiation amount in the specific area based on the wind direction information (information indicating the windward and leeward with respect to the specific area) and the solar radiation amount past information. This is because, by using at least wind direction information (information indicating upwind and leeward for a specific area) and solar radiation amount past information, it is possible to calculate the trend of change in solar radiation amount due to cloud movement and cloud effects.

<< Predicted area section 21b >>
In the above, although the prediction area division part 21b was demonstrated as being comprised by the arithmetic processing part 21, it is not limited to this. For example, the predicted area classification unit 21b may not be included, and in this case, the solar radiation amount and the power generation amount are predicted without dividing the specific area.

<< Insolation amount prediction unit 21c >>
In the above description, the solar radiation amount prediction unit 21c has been described as being included in the arithmetic processing unit 21, but is not limited thereto. For example, the power generation amount prediction unit 21e may have the function of the solar radiation amount prediction unit 21c.

  In the above description, the solar radiation amount prediction unit 21c has been described so as to predict the third solar radiation amount prediction information of the second point, but is not limited thereto. The solar radiation amount prediction unit 21c only needs to calculate at least the first solar radiation amount prediction information and the second solar radiation amount prediction information. Moreover, the solar radiation amount prediction part 21c should just be able to predict the future solar radiation amount of a specific area, when the arithmetic processing part 21 is not comprised including the prediction area division part 21b.

<< Power generation capacity calculation unit 21d >>
In the above description, the power generation capacity calculation unit 21d has been described as being included in the arithmetic processing unit 21, but is not limited thereto. For example, the power generation capacity calculation unit 21d may not be included in the arithmetic processing unit 21, and in that case, the power generation capacity in a specific area may be acquired from a device different from the power generation amount prediction system 1.

<< Power generation amount prediction unit 21e >>
In the above description, the power generation amount prediction unit 21e has been described as calculating the first power generation amount and the second power generation amount, but is not limited thereto. For example, when the predicted region classification unit 21b is not included in the arithmetic processing unit 21, the power generation amount prediction unit 21e may only calculate the future power generation amount in a specific region.

<< Storage unit 22 >>
In the above description, the storage unit 22 has been described as being configured to be included in the power generation amount prediction apparatus 20, but is not limited thereto. For example, the storage unit 22 may not be included in the power generation amount prediction device 20, and each table stored in the storage unit 22 may be stored in another device independent of the power generation amount prediction device 20. However, the power generation amount prediction apparatus 20 is connected to the other apparatus so that the storage table of the other apparatus can be referred to.

=== Summary ===
As described above, the power generation amount prediction apparatus 20 according to the present embodiment is a power generation amount prediction apparatus 20 that predicts the power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 100 installed in a specific area, and is upwind from the specific area. The first solar radiation amount past information indicating the past solar radiation amount of the first point located at the first point, and the past solar radiation amount of the second point that is opposed to the first point across the specific region and located leeward than the specific region. Based on the storage unit 22 that stores in advance the second solar radiation amount past information to be shown, the first solar radiation amount past information, and the second solar radiation amount past information corresponding to the first solar radiation amount past information, While calculating the change tendency calculation part 21a which specifies the change tendency of the solar radiation amount in the specific area between the 2nd points, and calculating the predicted solar radiation amount of the specific area based on the current solar radiation amount and the change tendency of the first point , Sunlight installed in a specific area based on predicted solar radiation And the power generation amount prediction unit 21e for predicting the amount of electric power generated by the electric equipment 100 includes. According to this embodiment, since the power generation amount in a specific area can be accurately predicted based on the current wind direction and the amount of solar radiation, power supply and demand adjustment in the specific area can be appropriately executed.

  Moreover, the power generation amount prediction apparatus 20 according to the present embodiment further includes a prediction area classification unit 21b that divides a specific area in a direction crossing the wind direction into a first area on the windward side and a second area on the leeward side. The change tendency calculating unit 21a includes a first change tendency of the amount of solar radiation in the first region based on the first amount of solar radiation past information and the second amount of solar radiation past information corresponding to the first amount of solar radiation past information, The second change tendency of the solar radiation amount in the second region is calculated, and the power generation amount prediction unit 21e calculates the future solar radiation in the first region based on the current solar radiation amount at the first point and the first change tendency. While calculating the amount, predicting the first power generation amount of the solar power generation facilities 101a to 101g (111a to 111g) installed in the first region based on the future solar radiation amount of the first region, The future of the second region based on the amount of solar radiation and the second trend of change The solar radiation amount is calculated, and the second power generation amount of the solar power generation facilities 102a to 102g (112a to 112g) installed in the second region is predicted based on the future solar radiation amount of the second region. To do. According to the present embodiment, since the power generation amount in the specific area can be predicted more accurately by dividing the specific area into two equal parts, the power supply and demand adjustment in the specific area can be more appropriately executed.

  In addition, the predicted area classification unit 21b of the power generation amount prediction apparatus 20 according to the present embodiment classifies the specific area in the direction perpendicular to the wind direction into the first area on the windward side and the second area on the leeward side. It is characterized by doing. According to the present embodiment, since the specific area can be divided into two more accurately, the power generation amount in the specific area can be predicted more accurately.

  Moreover, the prediction area classification | segmentation part 21b of the electric power generation amount prediction apparatus 20 which concerns on this embodiment changes the classification of the 1st area and the 2nd area in a specific area according to a wind direction. According to this embodiment, since the classification of the specific area to be predicted is changed according to the wind direction, the power generation amount in the specific area can be predicted more accurately.

  Moreover, the power generation amount prediction apparatus 20 according to the present embodiment includes the first power generation capacity of the solar power generation facilities 101a to 101g (111a to 111g) installed in the first region and the solar power generation installed in the second region. The power generation capacity calculation unit 21d that calculates the second power generation capacity of the facilities 102a to 102g (112a to 112g) is further provided, and the power generation amount prediction unit 21e calculates the future solar radiation amount and the first power generation capacity of the first region. The first power generation amount is predicted based on the second generation amount, and the second power generation amount is predicted based on the future solar radiation amount in the second region and the second power generation capacity. According to this embodiment, the power generation capacity of each of the first region and the second region can be easily calculated.

20 Power generation amount prediction device 21a Change tendency calculation unit 21b Prediction area division unit 21d Power generation capacity calculation unit 21e Power generation amount prediction unit 22 Storage units 100, 101a to 101g, 102a to 102g, 111a to 111g, 112a to 112g

Claims (7)

A power generation amount prediction device for predicting a power generation amount of a solar power generation facility installed in a specific area,
The first solar radiation amount past information indicating the past solar radiation amount of the first point located on the windward side from the specific region, the first point facing the first region across the specific region, and located leeward from the specific region A storage unit that stores in advance the second solar radiation amount past information indicating the past solar radiation amount of the second point to be,
Based on the first solar radiation amount past information and the second solar radiation amount past information corresponding to the first solar radiation amount past information, the solar radiation amount in the specific area between the first point and the second point is determined. A change trend calculator that identifies the change trend;
The solar power generation facility installed in the specific area based on the predicted solar radiation amount while calculating the predicted solar radiation amount of the specific area based on the first actually measured solar radiation amount of the first point and the change tendency A power generation amount prediction unit for predicting the power generation amount of
A power generation amount prediction apparatus comprising: A predictive region classification unit that divides the specific region into a first region on the windward side and a second region on the leeward side in a direction crossing the wind direction;
The change tendency calculation unit is configured to determine a first change tendency of the solar radiation amount in the first region based on the first solar radiation amount past information and the second solar radiation amount past information corresponding to the first solar radiation amount past information. And a second change tendency of the amount of solar radiation in the second region,
The power generation amount prediction unit calculates a first predicted solar radiation amount of the first region based on the first actually measured solar radiation amount and the first change tendency, and based on the first predicted solar radiation amount, A first power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation facility installed in the first region is predicted, and a second predicted solar radiation amount of the second region is calculated based on the first actually measured solar radiation amount and the second change tendency. The power generation amount prediction device according to claim 1, wherein the second power generation amount of the solar power generation facility installed in the second area is predicted based on the second predicted solar radiation amount. The prediction area classification unit divides the specific area into the first area on the windward side and the second area on the leeward side in a direction perpendicular to the wind direction. The power generation amount prediction apparatus described. The power generation amount prediction device according to claim 2 or 3, wherein the predicted area classification unit changes the classification of the first area and the second area in the specific area according to a wind direction. A power generation capacity calculating unit that calculates a first power generation capacity of the solar power generation facility installed in the first area and a second power generation capacity of the solar power generation facility installed in the second area; ,
The power generation amount prediction unit predicts the first power generation amount based on the first predicted solar radiation amount and the first power generation capacity, and based on the second predicted solar radiation amount and the second power generation capacity, The power generation amount prediction apparatus according to claim 2, wherein two power generation amounts are predicted. A power generation amount prediction method for predicting a power generation amount of a photovoltaic power generation facility installed in a specific area, the first solar radiation amount past information indicating a past solar radiation amount at a first point located upstream from the specific area. And the second solar radiation amount past information indicating the past solar radiation amount of the second point facing the first point across the specific region and located leeward than the specific region,
Based on the first solar radiation amount past information and the second solar radiation amount past information corresponding to the first solar radiation amount past information, the solar radiation amount in the specific area between the first point and the second point is determined. Identify change trends,
The solar power generation facility installed in the specific area based on the predicted solar radiation amount while calculating the predicted solar radiation amount of the specific area based on the first actually measured solar radiation amount of the first point and the change tendency A method for predicting the amount of power generation characterized by predicting the amount of power generation. A power generation amount prediction system that predicts the amount of power generated by solar power generation facilities installed in a specific area,
A first solar radiation meter that measures the amount of solar radiation at a first point located upstream from the specific area;
A second solar radiation meter that measures the amount of solar radiation at a second point that faces the first point across the specific area and is located leeward of the specific area;
A storage unit for preliminarily storing first solar radiation amount past information indicating a past solar radiation amount at the first point and second solar radiation amount past information indicating a past solar radiation amount at the second point; and the first solar radiation. Based on the amount past information and the second amount of solar radiation past information corresponding to the first amount of solar radiation past information, a change trend of the amount of solar radiation in the specific area between the first point and the second point is specified. And calculating a predicted solar radiation amount of the specific area based on the first measured solar radiation amount and the change tendency of the first point, and installed in the specific area based on the predicted solar radiation amount A power generation amount prediction unit that predicts a power generation amount of the solar power generation facility, and
A power generation amount prediction system comprising:

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