JP2018045444A - Existence probability estimation device, existence probability estimation method, and existence probability estimation program - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide an existence probability estimation device, an existence probability estimation method, and an existence probability estimation program with which it is possible to appropriately estimate an area in which a target mobile entity probably exists.SOLUTION: The existence probability estimation device of an embodiment includes an acquisition unit and an existence probability derivation unit. The acquisition unit acquires target mobile entity location information at a reference point of time, map information based on the map information, and disturbance information. The existence probability derivation unit derives the probability of the target mobile entity existing at a point of time later than the reference point of time in correlation to the map information acquired by the acquisition unit on the basis of the target mobile entity location information at the reference point of time acquired by the acquisition unit, the map information based on the location information, and the disturbance information.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

  Embodiments described herein relate generally to an existence probability estimation device, an existence probability estimation method, and an existence probability estimation program.

  2. Description of the Related Art Conventionally, a technique for estimating an existing position according to elapsed time based on the latest position information on a target moving body such as a person or a vehicle is known. However, in the conventional technology, conditions for estimating the location of the target mobile object are not sufficient, and thus there are cases where an area where there is a possibility of being overlooked or the coverage of the possible range is lacking.

JP-A-9-251450 Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 10-307864

  The problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide an existence probability estimation device, an existence probability estimation method, and an existence probability estimation program capable of appropriately estimating an area where a target mobile object may exist. .

  The existence probability estimation device according to the embodiment includes an acquisition unit and an existence probability derivation unit. The acquisition unit acquires position information of the target moving body at the reference time point, map information based on the position information, and disturbance information. The existence probability deriving unit is configured to acquire the map information acquired by the acquiring unit based on the position information of the target moving body at the reference time acquired by the acquiring unit, map information based on the position information, and disturbance information. , The existence probability of the target moving body at a time later than the reference time is derived.

The figure which shows an example of the system configuration | structure of the object mobile body discovery assistance system 1 containing the presence probability estimation apparatus 100 of embodiment. The figure which shows an example of the non-existent area | region determination criteria information 164. FIG. The figure which shows an example of the moving speed adjustment information 166. FIG. The figure for demonstrating the processing content in the estimated movement vector production | generation part. The figure which shows the example of a production | generation of the estimated movement vector 310 at the time of adjusting the moving speed assumed of the object moving body. The figure for demonstrating the example of a production | generation of the estimated movement vector matched with the area | region which cannot exist. The figure which shows an example of the existence possibility map 400. FIG. The flowchart which shows an example of the processing content in the existence probability estimation apparatus 100.

  Hereinafter, an existence probability estimation device, an existence probability estimation method, and an existence probability estimation program according to embodiments will be described with reference to the drawings.

  FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an example of a system configuration of a target mobile object discovery support system 1 including an existence probability estimation apparatus 100 according to an embodiment. The target mobile object discovery support system 1 includes, for example, an existence probability estimation device 100 and at least one communication terminal 200. In the following description, the communication terminals 200-1 to 200-n have the same configuration, and when the communication terminals are not distinguished, the reference signs after the hyphen indicating which communication terminal is omitted are omitted. This will be described as “communication terminal 200”.

  The existence probability estimation device 100 is realized by one or more processors, for example. The existence probability estimation apparatus 100 is connected to the communication terminal 200 via a network NW including a local area network (LAN), a wide area network (WAN), a cellular network, a Wi-Fi network, a dedicated line, a provider, the Internet, and the like. Communicate.

  The existence probability estimation device 100 includes, for example, an acquisition unit 110, an existence probability derivation unit 120, an existence possibility map generation unit (estimation unit) 130, a display unit 140, a communication unit 150, and a storage unit 160. . These functional units are software functional units that function when a processor such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit) executes a program stored in a program memory. Some or all of these functional units may be realized by hardware such as LSI (Large Scale Integration), ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit), and FPGA (Field-Programmable Gate Array).

  The acquisition unit 110 acquires position information of the target moving body at the reference time point, map information based on the position information, and disturbance information. The reference time point refers to a time point when the position of the target moving body is known. Specifically, the time point at which the target mobile object was last witnessed or the time point instructed by the user of the existence probability estimation device 100 or the communication terminal 200 is set as the reference time point. The target moving body is, for example, a life such as a person or an animal, or a movable object such as a vehicle.

  For example, the map information is obtained by dividing an actual position into meshes and associating altitude information with each mesh. In addition, the map information mesh includes location information (coordinate information), information on topography (elevation, slope, ridgeline, flat land, etc.), information on water sources (existence of rivers, rivers, ponds, lakes, seas, etc., water depth, Information about the presence or absence of roads, buildings, etc. A ridge line is a line in which positions with a higher altitude than the surrounding are connected in a line. The map information may be stored in advance in the storage unit 160 as the map information 162.

  The disturbance information includes, for example, weather information. The weather information is information such as weather, temperature, humidity, wind direction, wind speed, rainfall, snow cover, and ash fall. Also, the disturbance information may include, for example, information related to the daytime and nighttime related to the time information and the brightness in the target area. Further, the disturbance information may include information regarding damage to the target moving body. For example, when the target moving body is a living body, the information on the damage may include information on the medical history of the living body and the presence / absence of injury (or an injured position). Further, when the target movement is not a vehicle, the information related to damage may include information related to a vehicle failure or running out of fuel.

  Moreover, the acquisition part 110 may acquire the attribute information of a target moving body. The attribute information is, for example, information related to the ability and situation of the target mobile object, and specifically, the age and sex of the person, the destination, the experience of mountain trails, the knowledge of the mountain trails, personality, clothes at the time and It is information such as equipment.

  The acquisition unit 110 may acquire the various types of information described above from the communication terminal 200 connected to the network NW, or may be acquired from another external device. In this case, the acquisition unit 110 may include an operation reception unit that receives a direct input operation by the user of the existence probability estimation device 100. The various information acquired is stored in the storage unit 160.

  The existence probability deriving unit 120 associates the map information 162 acquired by the acquisition unit 110 with the map information 162 acquired by the acquisition unit 110 based on the position information and disturbance information of the target moving body at the reference time acquired by the acquisition unit 110, and is later than the reference time. The existence probability of the target moving object at the time of is derived. The time point after the reference time point may be, for example, a time point (for example, 5 minutes later, 1 hour later, 1 day later) instructed by the user of the existence probability estimation device 100 or the communication terminal 200, and is set in advance. It may be at the point of time. In addition, the time point after the reference time point may be a plurality of times and is not necessarily the final time point. Also, the existence probability deriving unit 120 derives the existence probability in a spillover manner based on the assumed movement amount of the target moving body. In the following description, the movement speed is used as an example of the movement amount.

  The existence probability deriving unit 120 includes, for example, a non-existable region setting unit 122, an estimated movement vector generation unit 124, and an existable region weighting unit 126.

  The non-existent area setting unit 122 includes the map information 162 and the attribute information of the target moving object in the predetermined area set based on the position information of the target moving object at the reference time acquired by the acquiring unit 110. It is determined whether or not a possible area condition is satisfied. The predetermined area may be an area on a concentric circle at a predetermined distance from the position information of the target moving body at the reference time point, or may be a maximum moving area set based on an assumed moving speed or map information of the target moving body. By limiting the area in this way, it is possible to reduce the time for estimating the area where the target mobile object can exist. Further, the condition of the nonexistent area is stored in the storage unit 160 as the nonexistent area determination criterion information 164. When the map information 162 and the attribute information of the target moving body satisfy the non-existent region condition, the non-existable region setting unit 122 sets the region as the non-existable region.

  FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of the nonexistent area determination criterion information 164. As illustrated in FIG. In the nonexistent area determination criterion information 164, a reference (threshold) for determining as an inexistent area associated with the map information and the attribute information is set. In the illustrated example, the map information includes the slope of the ground, the depth of mud, and the speed of the river. In the illustrated example, the attribute information includes age, sex, and the like.

  The non-existent area setting unit 122 sets a point as a non-existable area when it is determined that the standard indicated by the non-existent area determination criterion information 164 is satisfied at each point in the predetermined area. For example, when the target moving body is a vehicle, the non-existent region setting unit 122 does not climb a mountain or travel on a river or lake. Set. Further, the nonexistent region setting unit 122 sets a lightning strike region or a vegetation region as a nonexistent region when the target moving body is a living object. As described above, in the embodiment, by using the non-existent area determination criterion information 164, it is possible to set the non-existent area based on the quantified reference regardless of the empirical rule of the searcher or the like.

  The estimated movement vector generation unit 124 generates an estimated movement vector of the target moving body based on the position information of the target moving body at the reference time point. The estimated movement vector generation unit 124 sets, for example, a grid-like mesh that subdivides each point of the map information, and uses the position of the target moving body as a reference, the vertical direction, the horizontal direction, the right diagonally upward direction, and the diagonally right downward A movement vector amount is generated for each of all eight directions, ie, the direction, the upper left diagonal direction, and the lower left diagonal direction. The movement vector amount is, for example, an amount that is set based on the moving speed that is set based on the attribute information of the target moving body.

  Further, the estimated movement vector generation unit 124 sets the existence probability of the target moving object at a time point later than the reference time point based on the region estimated by the estimated movement vector. Further, the estimated movement vector generation unit 124 adjusts the movement speed with reference to the movement speed adjustment information 166 stored in advance in the storage unit 160 based on the attribute information and disturbance information described above, and based on the adjusted movement speed. To generate an estimated movement vector.

  FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of the movement speed adjustment information 166. As shown in FIG. In the movement speed adjustment information 166, an adjustment amount of the movement speed associated with the disturbance information and the target moving body is set. The attribute information is, for example, information on the age and sex of the target mobile body. The disturbance information includes, for example, the position of the injury on the target moving body, the amount of snow accumulation based on the weather information, whether it is nighttime, and rainfall.

  For example, when the target moving body is a man over 15 years old and the lower body is injured, the estimated movement vector generation unit 124 adjusts the moving speed to 30% of the normal moving speed. Accordingly, the estimated movement vector generation unit 124 can generate the estimated movement vector at an appropriate movement speed in correspondence with the attribute information and disturbance information.

  FIG. 4 is a diagram for explaining the processing contents in the estimated movement vector generation unit 124. As shown in the figure, the estimated movement vector generation unit 124 generates an estimated movement vector 310 in each direction based on the assumed moving speed of the target moving body with reference to the position 300-1 of the target moving body at the reference time point. To do.

  For example, when there is no adjustment of the assumed moving speed of the target moving body with respect to the position 300-1 of the target moving body at the reference time point, the estimated movement vector generation unit 124 calculates the estimated moving speed of the target moving body from the assumed moving speed. An estimated movement vector in each direction is generated with an adjustment ratio of “1”.

  In addition, the estimated movement vector generation unit 124 generates an estimated movement vector in the same manner with reference to the time point when the target moving object moves from the position 300-1 to the right position 300-2. The estimated movement vector generation unit 124 generates an estimated movement vector at each position while moving the position of the target moving body in each direction. In addition, the estimated movement vector generation unit 124 generates the possible area 320 by continuing the generation of the estimated vector until the target time point after the reference time point is reached.

  FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating a generation example of the estimated movement vector 310 when the assumed movement speed of the target moving body is adjusted. For example, when the attribute information of the target moving object is “male 15 years or older” and the disturbance information is “lower-body injury”, the estimated movement vector generation unit 124 determines that the target moving object is based on the moving speed adjustment information 166. The assumed moving speed of the moving body is adjusted to a ratio of 30% (0.3) of the reference speed. Next, the estimated movement vector generation unit 124 generates an existence possible area 322 based on the position 300-1 of the target moving body based on the adjusted movement speed.

  Further, when there is a non-existent region set by the non-existent region setting unit 122 described above, the estimated movement vector generation unit 124 may reduce the moving speed ratio in the direction in which the non-existent region exists. Good. In this case, the estimated movement vector generation unit 124 may increase the ratio by setting a direction close to the direction in which the ratio is reduced due to the presence of the nonexistent area as a direction that may be bypassed.

  FIG. 6 is a diagram for explaining an example of generating an estimated movement vector corresponding to a nonexistent region. For example, when there is a nonexistable region 330 in the vicinity of the position 300-1 of the target moving body, the estimated movement vector generation unit 124 has the nonexistable region 330 according to the distance to the nonexistable region 330. The moving speed in the direction is adjusted to a ratio of 1 or less so that the moving speed in the direction becomes slower than the normal moving speed. Further, the estimated movement vector generation unit 124 adjusts the estimated movement vector corresponding to the direction detouring the nonexistent area 330 to a ratio of 1 or more so as to be faster than the normal movement speed. The estimated movement vector generation unit 124 performs the above-described processing in each direction with reference to the position 300-1 of the target moving body, thereby generating the possible area 324. As a result, the possible existence area corresponding to the existence probability can be derived more appropriately.

  In addition, the estimated movement vector generation unit 124 combines the adjustment contents of the movement speed based on the attribute information and the disturbance information of the target moving body described above and the adjustment contents of the movement speed based on the above-described non-existent range, as described above. The existence possible area may be derived. Thereby, the existence probability distribution can be generated with higher accuracy.

  The existable area weighting unit 126 weights the existable area based on the terrain information obtained from the map information 162. For example, the existence area weighting unit 126 includes, among the existence areas generated by the estimated movement vector generation unit 124, near water sources such as rivers and rivers obtained from the map information 162, or on ridgelines, flat land, roads, and the like. For the area, it is determined that there is a high possibility that the target moving object exists. Then, the possible area weighting unit 126 assigns a weight so that the existence probability of the area determined as having a high possibility that the target moving object exists is high.

  Further, the possible area weighting unit 126 determines that there is a low possibility that the target mobile object exists for an area such as a cliff or the sea where the target mobile object obtained from the map information 162 cannot pass, and the determined area A weight is assigned so that the existence probability of the is lower. Further, the possible region weighting unit 126 determines that the target mobile object is unlikely to exist in the region that has already been searched by the searcher, and assigns a weight so that the existence probability of the determined region is low. Good.

  Here, the possible region weighting unit 126 may output the weighted region information to the estimated movement vector generation unit 124, and may act upon the generation of the estimated movement vector. Further, the estimated movement vector generation unit 124 may generate an estimated movement vector using only the information on the weighted area described above.

  The existence possibility map generation unit 130 estimates the existence possibility region of the target moving body based on the existence probability information derived by the existence probability deriving unit 120. Specifically, the existence possibility map generation unit 130 can exist in the predetermined area set based on the position information of the target moving object at the reference time, expressed by the estimated movement vector generated by the existence probability deriving unit 120. Generate an existence possibility map based on the region.

  FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating an example of the existence possibility map 400. First, the existence possibility map generation unit 130 superimposes the object 404 corresponding to the position information of the target moving object at the reference time on the map information 402. In addition, the existence possibility map generation unit 130 can identify, for example, a range exceeding the maximum movement range of the target moving object in the map information 402 by a predetermined color or pattern. The object 406 is superimposed.

  Further, the existence possibility map generation unit 130 superimposes the objects 408-1 and 408-2 on which the non-existable areas set by the non-existable area setting unit 122 can be identified on the map information 402.

  Further, the existence possibility map generation unit 130 superimposes on the map information 402 an object 410 that can identify the existence range based on the estimated movement vector of the target moving body generated by the estimated movement vector generation unit 124. At this time, the existence possibility map generation unit 130 may set the object so that the area weighted by the existence area weighting unit 126 can be identified. In the illustrated example, the objects 410-1 and 410-2 corresponding to the possible existence range are areas (weighted search areas) that are highly weighted by the possible area weighting unit 126, and the objects 410-3 and 410-4. Is a region that is not weighted by the possible region weighting unit 126.

  Thus, the existence possibility map generation unit 130 can generate the existence possibility map 400 according to various conditions. Therefore, in the embodiment, for example, when the target moving body is injured, the moving speed is reduced, or when the target moving body is a child (for example, 10 years old or younger), it does not turn back and survives more than knowledge. An appropriate existence possibility map 400 is generated by changing the existence probability based on information about the personality such as obeying the instinct, or by expanding the non-existence range when the target moving body is insufficiently equipped. be able to.

  Note that the existence possibility map generation unit 130 may display the destination of the target mobile body superimposed on the existence possibility map 400, obtain position information from the communication terminal 200, and obtain the obtained position of the communication terminal. The existence possibility map 400 may be superimposed and displayed in correspondence with the coordinates of the map information 162. Thereby, since the position of another searcher can be grasped | ascertained, a target mobile body can be searched more efficiently.

  In this way, the existence possibility map generation unit 130 can accurately identify the position of the target moving body by generating the existence possibility map in correspondence with the existence probability, Can be done early.

  The display unit 140 is, for example, an LCD (Liquid Crystal Display) or an organic EL (Electro Luminescence) display device. The display unit 140 displays a screen that accepts input of various types of information necessary for estimating the existence probability of the target moving object, and displays the existence possibility map described above.

  The communication unit 150 communicates with the communication terminal 200 using the network NW. The communication unit 150 transmits the existence possibility map 400 generated by the existence possibility map generation unit 130 to the communication terminal 200.

  The storage unit 160 includes, for example, a non-volatile storage medium such as a ROM (Read Only Memory), a flash memory, an HDD (Hard Disk Drive), and an SD card, and a volatile storage medium such as a RAM (Random Access Memory) and a register. And realized by. The storage unit 160 stores information such as map information 162, nonexistent area determination reference information 164, and movement speed adjustment information 166, for example. The storage unit 160 may store disturbance information and attribute information acquired by the acquisition unit 110, for example.

  The communication terminal 200 is, for example, a terminal possessed by a searcher who finds the target moving body. The communication terminal 200 is, for example, a mobile phone such as a smartphone, a tablet terminal, a PDA (Personal Digital Assistant), or the like. The communication terminal 200 includes, for example, functions of a communication unit that communicates with the existence probability estimation device 100 via the network NW, and a display unit that displays information obtained from the existence probability estimation device. The communication terminal 200 performs discovery support for the searcher by displaying the existence possibility map 400 obtained from the existence probability estimation device 100.

  Note that the communication terminal 200 described above may have the same function as the existence probability estimation device 100. In this case, the communication terminal 200 can acquire the existence possibility map independently and display it on the display unit without receiving the existence possibility map described above from the existence probability estimation device 100.

  FIG. 8 is a flowchart showing an example of processing contents in the existence probability estimation apparatus 100. This flowchart may be repeatedly executed periodically, or may be executed by an execution instruction from a user of the existence probability estimation device 100 or the communication terminal 200.

  The acquisition unit 110 acquires position information of the target moving object at the reference time point, map information based on the position information, and disturbance information (step S100). In the process of step S100, the acquisition unit 110 may acquire the attribute information of the target moving object. Next, the non-existable area setting unit 122 sets the non-existent area of the target moving body in the area within the maximum movement range based on the map information 162 and the non-existable area determination reference information 164 (step S102).

  Next, the estimated movement vector generation unit 124 generates an estimated movement vector based on the position information of the target moving body at the reference time based on the map information 162, the disturbance information, and the attribute information of the target moving body (Step S1). S104). Next, the estimated movement vector generation unit 124 determines whether or not generation of the estimated movement vector has been executed a predetermined number of times (step SS106). Executing a predetermined number of times means, for example, executing until the range in which the existence probability is derived reaches a target time after the reference time.

  When the predetermined number of times has not been executed, the estimated movement vector generation unit 124 performs the process of step S104 until the predetermined number of times is reached. In addition, when the predetermined number of times is executed, the possible area weighting unit 126 weights the area within the maximum movement range according to the level of the possibility of existence of the target moving object (step S108).

  Next, the existence possibility map generation unit 130 superimposes the object corresponding to the existence possibility area estimated based on the estimated movement vector and the existence impossible area on the map information (step S110). Next, the existence possibility map generation unit 130 causes the communication unit 150 to transmit map information (existence possibility map) on which the object is superimposed to the communication terminal 200 (step S112). Thereby, this flowchart is completed.

  According to at least one embodiment described above, the position information of the target moving object at the reference time point, the map information based on the position information, and the acquisition unit that acquires disturbance information, and the reference acquired by the acquisition unit Based on the position information of the target mobile object at the time, map information based on the position information, and disturbance information, the map information acquired by the acquisition unit is associated with the map information at a time later than the reference time By having the existence probability deriving unit for deriving the existence probability of the target moving body, it is possible to appropriately estimate a region where the target moving body may exist.

  Specifically, according to the embodiment, it is possible to estimate the possible area according to the elapsed time based on the latest position information of the target moving body. In addition, according to the embodiment, a non-existent area is set based on map information based on terrain shape and the presence or absence of vegetation, information on damage of the target moving body, or the movement amount is estimated from the attribute information of the target moving body. By reflecting these pieces of information on the map information, it is possible to accurately obtain the possible area. Therefore, the search omission of the target mobile body can be suppressed, and the range that should not be searched can be specified. Therefore, wasteful labor and time waste can be suppressed, and the target mobile body can be found quickly.

  Although several embodiments of the present invention have been described, these embodiments are presented by way of example and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention. These embodiments can be implemented in various other forms, and various omissions, replacements, and changes can be made without departing from the spirit of the invention. These embodiments and their modifications are included in the scope and gist of the invention, and are also included in the invention described in the claims and the equivalents thereof.

  DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 ... Target mobile body discovery support system, 100 ... Existence probability estimation apparatus, 110 ... Acquisition part, 120 ... Existence probability derivation part, 122 ... Nonexistence area setting part, 124 ... Presumed movement vector generation part, 126 ... Existence area Weighting unit, 130 ... existence possibility map generation unit (estimation unit), 140 ... display unit, 150 ... communication unit, 160 ... storage unit, 200 ... communication terminal

Claims (10)

An acquisition unit that acquires position information of a target mobile object at a reference time point, map information based on the position information, and disturbance information;
Based on the position information of the target moving body at the reference time acquired by the acquisition unit, the map information based on the position information, and disturbance information, the map information acquired by the acquisition unit is associated with the map information, An existence probability deriving unit for deriving the existence probability of the target moving object at a time point later than a reference time point;
An existence probability estimation device comprising: The disturbance information includes weather information,
The existence probability deriving unit derives a presence probability in a spillover manner based on an assumed movement amount of the target moving body, and adjusts a movement amount of the target moving body based on the weather information.
The existence probability estimation apparatus according to claim 1. The disturbance information includes information on damage of the target moving body,
The existence probability deriving unit derives an existence probability in a spillover manner based on an assumed movement amount of the target moving body, and adjusts a movement amount of the target moving body based on information on the damage.
The existence probability estimation apparatus according to claim 1 or 2. The target moving body is a living body,
The information on the damage includes information on the injuries of the life form,
The existence probability estimation device according to claim 3. The target moving body is a vehicle,
The information on the damage includes information on failure of the vehicle or running out of fuel,
The existence probability estimation device according to claim 3 or 4. The acquisition unit acquires attribute information of the target moving body,
The existence probability deriving unit derives the existence probability of the target moving body at a time point later than the reference time point based on the attribute information acquired by the acquisition unit.
The existence probability estimation device according to any one of claims 1 to 5. The existence probability deriving unit includes:
Based on the map information based on the position information and the disturbance information, a non-existent region where the target moving body cannot exist is derived.
The existence probability estimation device according to any one of claims 1 to 6. An estimation unit that estimates the possible area of the target moving object based on the existence probability derived by the existence probability deriving unit;
The existence probability estimation device according to any one of claims 1 to 7. Computer
Obtain position information of the target mobile object at the reference time point, map information based on the position information, and disturbance information,
Based on the acquired position information of the target mobile object at the reference time point, map information based on the position information, and disturbance information, in association with the acquired map information, at a time point later than the reference time point Deriving the existence probability of the target moving object;
Existence probability estimation method. On the computer,
Obtaining the position information of the target mobile object at the reference time point, map information based on the position information, and disturbance information;
Based on the acquired position information of the target mobile object at the reference time, map information based on the position information, and disturbance information, the map information is acquired at a time later than the reference time in association with the acquired map information. Deriving the existence probability of the target moving object;
Existence probability estimation program.

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