JP2018005419A - Power rate prediction device - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To achieve a power rate prediction device capable of predicting a sales amount in consideration of a contract change by a user.SOLUTION: The power rate prediction device has a contract change quantity calculation part for generating information on remaining contract users who are users who are predicted not to change a contracted company from a first power supply company to a second power supply company on the basis of a first rate difference, a second rate difference and an existing contracted company change threshold for predicting whether the user changes the contracted company or an existing contract type change threshold for predicting whether the user changes a first contract type. The device includes: a demand prediction part for calculating a predicted power demand value per user from a past power demand record value of the user; and a predicted rate calculation part for calculating a total of power rates for all remaining contract users on the basis of information on remaining contract users, the predicted power demand value per user and information on the first contract type corresponding to the remaining contract users.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

  The present invention relates to a power rate prediction apparatus that predicts a power rate in a power supplier.

  The power supply company presents the customer with a plurality of contract schemes of various charge systems according to the demand amount of the customer's power and the change pattern of the demand amount for each day or season. Each consumer chooses a contract method that makes the price low, and contracts with the power supply company. In Japan, with the full liberalization of power retailing, many power supply companies have entered the power supply business, and a wider variety of contract methods have emerged. Each consumer is changing the contract method more frequently than before the full liberalization of power retailing in accordance with the lifestyle.

  The power supply company will revise the charges in order to adjust the increase in supply costs and to make capital investment to improve services. However, because of the above-mentioned background, it is highly likely that the customer will change the contracted power supply provider because the fee revision that uniformly increases the usage fee unit price will not match the lifestyle. For this reason, the electricity supplier cannot make an easy tariff revision, and the tariff revision is carried out within the range where the customer does not change the contracting party by changing the unit price of the usage fee every hour or season. There is a need. Therefore, the power supply company implements the demand forecast and the electricity bill forecast of the contracting customer for the sales and profit forecast.

  In Patent Document 1, based on a customer's power usage plan, the amount of power used in a predetermined period is predicted for each power usage timing in which different metered unit prices are set. There has been disclosed a technique for presenting a contract method that provides the cheapest power charge by calculating a power charge based on a power charge calculation standard defined in the contract method and comparing the calculated values.

JP 2003-324846 A

  However, in the technique of the above-mentioned Patent Document 1, a contract method that provides the cheapest power charge is presented, but it is not considered whether the customer actually changes the contract method. For this reason, even if the power supply company can forecast the amount of demand when forecasting sales, the possibility that the customer has changed the contract, that is, the customer has changed to another contract method. There is a possibility of switching, and a customer may have switched the contract to another power supply company.

  On the other hand, if there is a cheap contract method even for one yen, the customer does not immediately change the contract to that contract system. Therefore, after a new contract method is disclosed, the amount of demand expected by the power supplier may not be obtained, and the sales and profits expected may not be achieved.

  The present invention has been made in view of the above, and an object of the present invention is to obtain a power rate prediction apparatus capable of predicting sales in consideration of a contract change of a consumer.

  In order to solve the above-described problems and achieve the object, a power rate prediction apparatus according to the present invention includes information on a plurality of first contract schemes of a first power supply provider, a first power supply provider, Based on the past actual power demand values for a plurality of contracted consumers, the cheapest first electricity rate corresponding to the past actual demand values for each consumer is calculated, and the plurality of second powers Based on the information on the second contract method of the plurality of suppliers and the past actual demand values of the plurality of consumers, the cheapest second electric charge corresponding to the past actual demand value for each consumer is calculated. A charge calculator is provided. In addition, the power rate prediction apparatus, for all customers, the first rate difference that is the difference between the rate history information that is the customer's payment history and the first electricity rate, and the rate history information and the second electricity rate A charge comparison unit that calculates a second charge difference that is a difference between the first charge difference and the second charge difference, and a default contract destination change threshold for predicting whether or not the customer changes the contract destination or The contract is not changed from the first power supplier to the second power supplier based on a predetermined contract method change threshold for predicting whether or not the customer changes the first contract method. And a contract change number calculation unit for generating information on a remaining contract customer who is expected to be a customer. In addition, the power rate prediction device includes a demand prediction unit that calculates a demand prediction value of power for each customer from a past demand actual value of the customer, information on remaining contract customers, a demand prediction value for each customer, And a predicted charge calculation unit that calculates the total of electricity charges for all remaining contract customers based on the information of the first contract method corresponding to the remaining contract customers.

  Advantageous Effects of Invention According to the present invention, there is an effect that a power rate prediction apparatus capable of predicting sales in consideration of a contract change of a consumer is obtained.

1 is a configuration diagram of a power rate prediction apparatus according to a first embodiment of the present invention. 1 is a block diagram schematically showing an example of a main configuration of a computer device that realizes a function as a power rate prediction device according to a first exemplary embodiment of the present invention; The flowchart which shows the procedure of the sales prediction process of the electricity bill in the electricity bill prediction apparatus concerning Embodiment 1 of this invention. Configuration diagram of power rate prediction apparatus according to Embodiment 2 of the present invention The flowchart which shows the procedure of the incremental prediction process of the electricity bill in the electricity bill prediction apparatus concerning Embodiment 2 of this invention. Configuration diagram of power rate prediction apparatus according to Embodiment 3 of the present invention The flowchart which shows the procedure of the sales prediction process of the electricity bill in the electricity bill prediction apparatus concerning Embodiment 3 of this invention. The schematic diagram which shows an example of the method which classify | categorizes a some consumer into the consumer group with a near contract system change threshold value in Embodiment 3 of this invention. The schematic diagram which shows an example of the method which classify | categorizes a some consumer into the consumer group with a near contract system change threshold value in Embodiment 3 of this invention. The block diagram of the change threshold value setting apparatus which the electric power rate prediction apparatus concerning Embodiment 4 of this invention has The figure which shows the example of the customer attribute in the electric power rate prediction apparatus concerning Embodiment 4 of this invention. The flowchart which shows the procedure of the collection process and storage process of a customer attribute in the change threshold value setting function part concerning Embodiment 4 of this invention. The flowchart which shows the procedure of the production | generation process of the change threshold value in the change threshold value setting function part concerning Embodiment 4 of this invention. The figure which shows the example of the occupation rate corresponding to the customer attribute value in the electric power rate prediction apparatus concerning Embodiment 4 of this invention. The block diagram of the change threshold value update apparatus which the electric power rate prediction apparatus concerning Embodiment 5 of this invention has The flowchart which shows the procedure of the collection process and storage process of a customer attribute in the change threshold value update part of the electric power rate prediction apparatus concerning Embodiment 5 of this invention. The block diagram of the change threshold value update apparatus which the power rate prediction apparatus concerning Embodiment 6 of this invention has The flowchart which shows the procedure of the collection process of the customer attribute in the change threshold value update apparatus concerning Embodiment 6 of this invention, and a storage process. The block diagram of the change threshold value update apparatus which the electric power rate prediction apparatus concerning Embodiment 7 of this invention has The flowchart which shows the procedure of the collection process of the customer attribute in the change threshold value update apparatus concerning Embodiment 7 of this invention, and a storage process.

  Hereinafter, a power rate prediction apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. Note that the present invention is not limited to the embodiments.

Embodiment 1 FIG.
FIG. 1 is a configuration diagram of a power rate prediction apparatus 1 according to the first exemplary embodiment of the present invention. The power rate prediction apparatus 1 according to the first exemplary embodiment includes a rate calculation unit 11, a rate comparison unit 12, a contract change number calculation unit 13, a demand prediction unit 14, a predicted rate calculation unit 15, and an in-house contract method. A storage unit 51, a competitor contract system storage unit 52, a demand record storage unit 53, a fee history storage unit 54, and a change threshold storage unit 55 are provided.

  The in-house contract method storage unit 51 stores a plurality of newly created revised contract method information. The revised contract method information is the contract method of the electricity bill that the customer contracts with the company and the contract method information after the revision, that is, the information of the charge menu of the electricity fee that the customer contracts with the company and after the revision Information on the price menu. The revised contract method information is input to the power rate prediction device by the user of the power rate prediction device and stored in the company contract method storage unit 51. The method for inputting the revised contract method information to the power rate prediction apparatus is not particularly limited.

  The other company contract method storage unit 52 stores a plurality of other company contract method information. The other company contract method information is information of another company contract method which is a contract method of another company's electric charge, that is, information of a charge menu of another company's electric charge. The other company contract method information is input to the power rate prediction device by the user of the power rate prediction device and stored in the other company contract method storage unit 52. There is no particular limitation on the method of inputting the other company contract method information to the power rate prediction apparatus. When the company is the first power supplier, the other company can be represented as the first power supplier. When the revised contract method information of the company is the information of the first contract method, the contract method information of the other company can be expressed as the information of the second contract method.

  The demand result storage unit 53 is a demand result value indicating how much electric power has been consumed so far during the contract with the company, that is, the customer who has contracted with the company. Is stored for each consumer. Moreover, the demand performance memory | storage part 53 memorize | stores the demand actual value of the past monthly average of the customer who has contracted with the company.

  Based on the revised contract method of the company, the contract method of the other company, and the actual demand value, the charge calculation unit 11 calculates the cheapest contract method electric charge, which is the cheapest charge for the actual demand value, for the own company and the other company. . That is, the charge calculation unit 11 uses the revised contract method information and the actual demand value, and the own lowest price contract method electric charge that is the first electric charge that is the cheapest electric charge for the actual demand value among the own contract methods. Is calculated. Moreover, the charge calculation unit 11 calculates a second electric charge other company's cheapest contract method electric charge that is the cheapest electric charge for the demand actual value among the contract methods of the other company from the other company's contract method information and the actual demand value. . The charge calculation unit 11 calculates the company's lowest price contract method electricity charge and the other company's lowest price contract method electricity charge for each customer.

  The charge history storage unit 54 stores, for each consumer, charge history information that is a history of payment of past electricity charges of a consumer who has contracted with the company. Further, the charge history storage unit 54 stores the past monthly average electricity charge of the customer who has contracted with the company.

  The charge comparison unit 12 compares the lowest price contract type electricity charge with the charge history information, and calculates the difference in charge between the lowest price contract type electricity charge and the charge history information for each customer.

  The change threshold storage unit 55 stores the contract method change threshold and the contract destination change threshold for each customer. The contract method change threshold is compared with the charge difference calculated by the charge comparison unit 12, so that the customer can change the contract method among the same power supply companies, that is, the contract method provided by the company. This is a default reference value for predicting whether or not to change the contract method. The contract destination change threshold is a predetermined reference value for predicting whether or not the customer changes the contracted power supply provider by comparing with the charge difference calculated by the charge comparison unit 12.

  The contract change number calculation unit 13 changes the contract supplier power supply provider based on the contract destination change threshold or the contract method change threshold and the charge difference calculated by the charge comparison unit 12, or It is predicted whether the contract method among the same power supply companies will be changed, that is, whether the contract method is changed in the contract method provided by the company, and residual contract customer information is generated. The remaining contract customer information is information on the remaining contract customer expected to continue the contract with the company without changing the contract destination from the company to another company. The customers who continue the contract with the company include those who do not change the contract method and the contract partner, and customers who change the contract method among the contract methods provided by the company. The contract change number calculation unit 13 registers the information on the remaining contract customers expected to continue the contract with the company without changing the contract destination in the remaining contract customer information together with the contract method of each remaining contract customer. . The current contract method is registered in the remaining contract customer information for the customers who are expected to change neither the contract method nor the contractor, and the contract method that is predicted to be changed for the customers who are expected to change the contract method. The

  The demand forecasting unit 14 calculates a demand forecast value for the next month for each consumer, that is, a forecast value for the amount of power used, from the demand actual value. The prediction method of a demand prediction value is not specifically limited, Arbitrary methods can be used.

  The forecast charge calculation unit 15 calculates a demand forecast that affects sales based on the remaining contract customer information and the demand forecast value, and calculates a sales forecast of the electricity bill after the contract method is revised.

  FIG. 2 is a block diagram schematically illustrating an example of a main configuration of a computer apparatus that implements the function as the power rate prediction apparatus 1 according to the first embodiment of the present invention. As shown in FIG. 2, the computer apparatus includes a processor 101 that performs calculation, a memory 102 that stores various types of information, an input unit 103 that receives various types of information, a display unit 104 that displays information, and an external device. A communication unit 105 that performs communication is connected via an internal bus 106.

  The charge calculation unit 11, the charge comparison unit 12, the contract change number calculation unit 13, the demand prediction unit 14, and the predicted charge calculation unit 15 execute a program stored in the memory 102 by the processor 101 shown in FIG. This is realized. A plurality of processors and a plurality of memories may cooperate to realize the above function. Further, a part of the function of the fee calculation unit 11 may be mounted as an electronic circuit, and the other part may be realized using the processor 101 and the memory 102. Similarly, a part of each function of the charge comparison unit 12, the contract change number calculation unit 13, the demand prediction unit 14, and the prediction fee calculation unit 15 is implemented as an electronic circuit, and the other part is a processor. It may be realized using the 101 and the memory 102. Further, a processor and a memory for realizing one or more of the charge calculation unit 11, the charge comparison unit 12, the contract change number calculation unit 13, the demand prediction unit 14, and the predicted charge calculation unit 15 are: It may be the same as the processor and memory that realize the other components of these, or may be another processor and memory.

  The company contract method storage unit 51, the other company contract method storage unit 52, the demand record storage unit 53, the fee history storage unit 54, and the change threshold storage unit 55 are realized by the memory 102. A memory for realizing one or more of the company contract method storage unit 51, the other company contract method storage unit 52, the demand record storage unit 53, the fee history storage unit 54, and the change threshold storage unit 55 is: It may be the same as a memory that realizes other components among these, or may be a different memory.

  Next, an electricity bill sales forecast process in the power bill forecasting apparatus 1 according to the first embodiment of the present invention will be described. FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing the procedure of the electricity price sales forecasting process in the power rate forecasting apparatus 1 according to the first embodiment of the present invention. The process shown in FIG. 3 is a process that is executed in order to predict sales of electricity charges when a new contract method is created.

  In step S110, the charge calculation unit 11 calculates an electricity charge for each contract method for every customer who has contracted with the company. That is, the charge calculation unit 11 calculates the electricity charges for the newly created company's plurality of revised contract methods and the electricity charges for a plurality of other companies' contract methods for the actual demand value. Then, the charge calculation unit 11 selects the lowest price contract method electric charge that is the cheapest electric charge with respect to the actual demand value from among the calculated electric charges, and the demand result among the other contract methods. The other company's cheapest contract method electricity charge, which is the cheapest electricity charge for the value, is stored as the electricity charge for each cheapest contract method.

Next, in step S120, the charge comparison unit 12 compares the average value of the electricity charge paid by the customer in the past as the charge history information with the company's lowest price contract method electricity charge calculated in step S110, A first fee difference d _a which is a first fee difference is calculated. The first fee difference d _a, the customer is, which is the difference between the electricity price in the case of changing the contract method to contract system consisting of a current contract system and its lowest price contract system electricity rates. Here, if is a positive first fee difference d _a, indicating that the new contract system after the revision is less expensive for consumers. Price comparison unit 12, for all the customers that are under contract with their own, to calculate the first fee difference d _a.

Next, in step S130, the charge comparison unit 12 compares the average value of the electricity charges paid by the customer in the past as the charge history information with the other company's lowest price contract method electricity charge calculated in step S110, calculating a second fee difference d _b is the second fee difference. The second fee difference d _b, the customer is, if you change the contract to other companies of the contract system from the current contract system made with other companies lowest price contract system electricity rates, that is, the difference between the electricity rates in the case of changing the contract destination is there. Here, if the second charge difference d _b is positive, indicating that the new contract system after the change is less expensive for consumers. Price comparison unit 12, for all the customers that are under contract with their own, to calculate the second price difference d _b. Note that the processing order of step S120 and step S130 may be reversed.

Next, in step S140, contract changes number calculating section 13 compares the first and rate difference d _a a fee difference in the case of changing the contract system in the house, and contract mode change threshold, the contract as a difference value to calculate the mode change difference value e _a. When the contract method change difference value e _a is a positive value, the contract change number calculation unit 13 determines that there is a possibility that the customer may change to the revised contract method. Change Contract number calculating section 13, for all customers, to calculate the contract system change difference value e _a.

Next, in step S150, the contract changes number calculating section 13 compares the second fee difference d _b a fee difference if customer changes the contractor, the contractor varying threshold, the as a difference value to calculate the 1 contract destination change difference value e _b. When the first contracting change difference value e _b is a positive value, contract changes number calculating section 13 determines that there is a possibility that the consumer will be changed to other companies contractor. Contract changes number calculating section 13, for all customers, and calculates the first contractor change difference value e _b. Note that the processing order of step S140 and step S150 may be reversed.

Next, in step S160, contract changes number calculating section 13, for all customers, out of the contract mode change difference value e _a a first contracting change difference value e _b, at least one is positive value It is determined whether or not. If not neither positive value of the contract mode change difference value _{e a} a first contracting change difference value _{e b,} that is, if No in step S160, the process proceeds to step S210. In this case, if the contract system change difference value e _a a first contract destination change difference value e _b is not both positive values, the customer can be regarded as a thing is not to change while the current contract system.

On the other hand, of the contract mode change difference value e _a a first contracting change difference value e _b, if at least one is a positive value, that is, in the case of Yes in step S160, in step S170, contract changes the number The calculation unit 13 compares the contract method change difference value e _a and the first contract destination change difference value e _b for each customer, and the contract method change difference value e _a ≧ first contract destination change difference value e _b . A customer who satisfies the condition is registered in the remaining contract customer information. The contract change number calculation unit 13 compares the contract method change difference value e _a and the first contract destination change difference value e _b, and the contract method change difference value e _a is larger than the first contract destination change difference value e _b. If and when agreement scheme change difference value e _a and the first contracting change difference value e _b are equal, it regarded as customer changes the contract system. On the other hand, contract changes number calculating unit 13, when the first contracting change difference value e _b is greater than the contract method change difference value e _a can be regarded as the customer to change the other companies contractor.

  By performing step S160 and step S170, whether the customer falls under one of a customer whose contract method and contract destination are not changed, a customer whose contract method is changed, and a customer whose contract destination is changed Is determined. The contract change number calculation unit 13 uses, as the remaining contract customer information, information on the customers who remain without changing the contract destination, that is, the information on the customers who do not change the contract method and the contract destination and the customers who change the contract method. Are stored in a list form as residual contract customer information together with the contract method. That is, the contract change number calculation unit 13 predicts whether to change the contract destination or the contract method for all the consumers, and generates the remaining contract customer information.

Next, in step S180, contract changes number calculating section 13 determines whether or not subjected to comparison process in Contracts mode change difference values e _a and the first contracting change difference value e _b in customer units. If not compared process for the contract type change difference value e _a and the first contracting change difference value e _b for all consumers, namely in the case of No in step S180, in step S210, contract changes number calculating section 13 may elect other customers not subjected to comparison process in contracts mode change difference values e _a and the first contracting change difference value e _b, the flow returns to step S160.

On the other hand, in the case of performing comparison processing on the contract type change difference value e _a and the first contracting change difference value e _b for all consumers, namely in the case of Yes in step S180, in step S190, the demand prediction unit 14 The demand forecast value is calculated for all consumers.

  Next, in step S200, the prediction fee calculation unit 15 is registered in the remaining contract customer information based on the remaining contract customer information, the demand prediction value, and the contract method registered in the remaining contract customer information. For each customer, the predicted electricity rate is calculated for each customer. And the prediction charge calculation part 15 calculates a sales forecast value by calculating the sum total of the electricity charge of the prediction of the consumer registered into residual contract consumer information.

  As described above, in the power rate prediction apparatus 1 according to the first exemplary embodiment, the consumer can change the contract destination or the contract method, and the difference amount that becomes cheaper is the default contract destination change threshold or the contract method change. The assumption that the contractor or contract method is changed only when the threshold is exceeded is used. The electricity rate prediction device sets the contract destination change threshold and the contract method change threshold for each customer according to this assumption, and the difference amount that becomes cheaper by changing the contract destination or contract method is the contract destination change threshold or contract. Only when the method change threshold is exceeded, the contractor change or the contract method change is predicted to be implemented.

  Therefore, the power rate prediction apparatus 1 according to the first exemplary embodiment uses the contract method change threshold and the contract destination change threshold to predict the contract change behavior of the customer such as the change of the contract destination and the change of the contract method, Even after the content of the contract method is revised, the remaining customers can be predicted without changing the contract partner to another company, and the sales amount can be predicted.

Embodiment 2. FIG.
In the second embodiment, a case will be described in which the number of customers is predicted and the amount of sales is predicted in consideration of a customer whose contract is changed from another company to the company by revising the contract method. FIG. 4 is a configuration diagram of the power rate prediction apparatus according to the second exemplary embodiment of the present invention.

  In addition to the configuration of the power charge prediction apparatus 1 according to the first embodiment, the power charge prediction apparatus 2 according to the second embodiment includes another company contract demand record storage unit 61, another company contract charge history storage unit 62, and another company contract. A change threshold storage unit 63 and a charge increment calculation unit 21 are provided.

  The other company contract demand result storage unit 61 is the demand actual value indicating how much demand has been in the contract with the other company, ie, the customer who has contracted with the other company. Is stored for each consumer. The other company contract demand record storage unit 61 stores the past monthly average demand record value of a customer who has contracted with another company.

  The other company contract fee history storage unit 62 stores, for each customer, fee history information, which is a history of payment of past electricity charges of a customer who has contracted with another company. Further, the other company contract fee history storage unit 62 stores the past monthly average electricity charges of the customers who have contracted with the company.

  The other company contract change threshold value storage unit 63 stores a contract destination change threshold value for each customer who has contracted with another company. As in the case of the first embodiment, the contract destination change threshold is compared with the charge difference calculated by the charge comparison unit 12 to predict whether or not the customer changes the contract power supply provider. Is the default reference value for

  In the second embodiment, the contract change number calculation unit 13 supplies the contractor's power supply to a customer who has contracted with another company based on the contract destination change threshold and the charge difference calculated by the charge comparison unit 12. Predict whether to change the business to the company, and generate inflow contract customer information. The inflow contract customer information is list information on external contract customers who are contracted with other companies that are expected to change the contract destination from another company to their own company. The contract change number calculation unit 13 uses, as inflow contract customer information, information on external contract customers expected to change the contract partner from another company to the company, together with the contract method of each external contract customer expected to contract with the company. save.

  In the second embodiment, the demand forecasting unit 14 calculates a demand forecast value for the next month for each external contract customer, that is, a forecast value for the amount of power used, from the actual demand value of the external contract customer.

  Based on the inflow contract customer information and the demand forecast value, the fee increment calculation unit 21 calculates the demand forecast of the external contract customer who is expected to change the contract destination from the other company to the own company, and the external contract customer Incremental prediction of electricity charges, that is, an incremental prediction of sales is calculated.

  The fee increment calculation unit 21 is realized by the processor 101 illustrated in FIG. 2 executing a program stored in the memory 102. A plurality of processors and a plurality of memories may cooperate to realize the above function. Further, a part of the function of the fee increment calculation unit 21 may be mounted as an electronic circuit, and the other part may be realized using the processor 101 and the memory 102. The processor and the memory for realizing the charge increment calculation unit 21 include a charge calculation unit 11, a charge comparison unit 12, a contract change number calculation unit 13, a demand prediction unit 14, and a predicted charge calculation unit 15. It may be the same as the processor and memory that realize one or more of the other components, or may be another processor and memory.

  Further, the other company contract demand result storage unit 61, the other company contract fee history storage unit 62, and the other company contract change threshold storage unit 63 are realized by the memory 102 shown in FIG. The memory for realizing one or more of the other company contract demand record storage unit 61, the other company contract fee history storage unit 62, and the other company contract change threshold storage unit 63 realizes other components of these. The same memory may be used, or another memory may be used.

  Next, an electricity price incremental prediction process in the power rate prediction apparatus 2 according to the second exemplary embodiment of the present invention will be described. The power rate prediction apparatus 2 according to the second exemplary embodiment performs the following processing in addition to the processing of the power rate prediction apparatus 1 according to the first exemplary embodiment described in the first exemplary embodiment. FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing the procedure of the electricity price increment prediction process in the power rate prediction apparatus 2 according to the second exemplary embodiment of the present invention.

  In step S310, the charge calculation unit 11 calculates an electricity charge for each contract method for each external contract customer for an external contract customer who has contracted with another company. That is, the charge calculation unit 11 calculates the electricity charge at the electricity charge for the newly created company's multiple revised contract methods with respect to the actual demand value of the external contract customer. Then, the charge calculation unit 11 sets the lowest price contract method electric charge, which is the third electric charge, which is the cheapest electric charge for the actual demand value, among the calculated contract charges. It is stored as an electricity bill for each low price contract method.

Next, in step S320, the charge comparison unit 12 calculates, in step S310, the average value of the electricity charge paid by the external contract customer in the past as the charge history information of the external contract customer who has contracted with another company. the company is compared with the lowest price contract system electricity rates, to calculate the third price difference d _c is the price difference at the time of contract destination change. The third charge differential d _c, external contract customers is, which is the difference between the electricity price at the time of contract destination change if you change the contract to the contract system to be their lowest price contract system electricity rates. Here, if the third charge the difference d _c is a positive value, indicating that the contract system to be their lowest price contract system electricity rates are cheaper for outside contract customers. However, the third price difference d _c is equal to a negative value, because it is cheaper in other companies of the contract system, the inflow to the company's external contract customers, ie contract change is judged that there is no. Price comparison unit 12, for all of the external contract customers, to calculate the third price difference d _c.

Next, in step S330, contract changes number calculating section 13 for all of the external contract customer, third fee difference d _c is determined whether a positive value. If the third fee difference d _c not positive, that is, in the case of No in step S330, the third fee difference d _c finishes a series of processes for external contract customers not positive.

On the other hand, if the third fee difference _{d c} is positive, that is, in the case of Yes in step S330, contract changes number calculating unit 13 in step S340, the external contract customer third fee difference _{d c} is not positive a third fee difference d _c is the fee difference when the external contract customer changes the contractor to house compares the contractor varying threshold, the second contractor change difference value e _c as the difference value calculate.

Next, in step S350, contract changes number calculating section 13 for all of the external contract customers, second contractor change difference value e _c determines whether it is positive. When the second contracting change difference value e _c of the positive, contract changes number calculating section 13 determines that the external contract customer is likely to change the contract with the company. However, the second contractor change difference value e _c is the case of a negative value, the external contract customers are considered not to change the contract destination. With respect to the external contract customers, by carrying out this process as long as it can be grasped in-house, the customer of the information the second contract destination change difference value e _c is a positive value can be acquired. The contract change number calculation unit 13 stores this customer information as inflow contract customer information in a list format together with the contract method that is the company's lowest price contract method electric charge.

If the second contracting change difference value e _c not positive, that is, in the case of No in step S350, the second contracting change difference value e _c is the external contract customers not positive, the series of processing is terminated.

On the other hand, if the second contracting change difference value e _c is positive, that is, in the case of Yes in step S350, in step S360, the forecast unit 14, for all the external contract customers, forecast value calculation To do.

  Next, in step S370, the charge increment calculation unit 21 determines the external contract demand in the inflow contract customer information based on the inflow contract customer information, the demand forecast value, and the contract method to be the company's lowest price contract method electric charge. Calculate the predicted electricity bill for each consumer for the house. Then, the charge increment calculation unit 21 calculates the total predicted electricity charge of the external contract consumer registered in the inflow contract customer information, thereby increasing the estimated electricity charge of the consumer by the consumer, that is, the sales Calculate incremental forecast amount.

  As described above, in the power rate prediction apparatus 2 according to the second exemplary embodiment, an external contract customer who has contracted with another company has a predetermined amount of difference which becomes cheaper by changing the contract destination to his company. The assumption that the contracting party is changed to the company when the destination changing threshold is exceeded is used. The electricity rate forecasting device sets a contract destination change threshold for each customer who contracts with other companies according to this assumption, and when the amount of difference that becomes cheaper by changing the contract destination exceeds the contract destination change threshold , It is predicted that the contract will be changed.

  Therefore, the power rate prediction apparatus 2 according to the second exemplary embodiment predicts the contracting party changing behavior of the external contracting customer using the contracting party changing threshold, and flows in from other companies after the revision of the contents of the contracting method. It is possible to forecast the increase in sales by carrying out demand forecasts for coming external contract customers. In other words, the power rate prediction apparatus 2 according to the second exemplary embodiment predicts the behavior of changing the contract destination for an external contract customer, so that the contract customer of the external contract customer who enters the contract change from the other company to the company itself. Demand forecasting can be performed to predict sales increments.

  Then, the power rate prediction apparatus 2 according to the second exemplary embodiment performs the above-described incremental prediction processing and the sales amount prediction processing described in the first exemplary embodiment, so that after the revision of the content of the contract method, Sales can be predicted in consideration of inflowing customers.

Embodiment 3 FIG.
FIG. 6 is a configuration diagram of the power rate prediction apparatus 3 according to the third exemplary embodiment of the present invention. In addition to the configuration of the power charge prediction apparatus 1 according to the first embodiment, the power charge prediction apparatus 3 according to the third embodiment includes a customer contract information storage unit 64, a customer classification information storage unit 65, and a customer. A classification processing unit 22.

  The customer contract information storage unit 64 stores customer contract information, which is information on a contract method with which each customer contracts, such as which contract method each customer contracts with the company.

  The customer classification processing unit 22 includes a contract method change threshold stored in the change threshold storage unit 55, customer contract information stored in the customer contract information storage unit 64, and a demand actual value stored in the demand actual storage unit 53. , Classify all customers into groups of similar customers. Hereinafter, a group of similar customers is referred to as a customer group. The method for classifying the actual demand value is not limited, but examples of the method for classifying the time series data include the shortest distance method, the longest distance method, the group average method, and the Ward method.

  The customer classification information storage unit 65 stores customer classification information that is information related to the classification of each customer group. The customer classification information includes the contract method of the consumers belonging to the consumer group, the information of the consumers belonging to each consumer group, and the average demand actual value for each classification. The average demand actual value for each classification is an average value of the demand actual values of each consumer belonging to one consumer group.

  The customer classification processing unit 22 is realized by the processor 101 illustrated in FIG. 2 executing a program stored in the memory 102. A plurality of processors and a plurality of memories may cooperate to realize the above function. Further, a part of the functions of the customer classification processing unit 22 may be mounted as an electronic circuit, and the other part may be realized using the processor 101 and the memory 102. The processor and the memory for realizing the charge increment calculation unit 21 include a charge calculation unit 11, a charge comparison unit 12, a contract change number calculation unit 13, a demand prediction unit 14, and a predicted charge calculation unit 15. It may be the same as the processor and memory that realize one or more of the other components, or may be another processor and memory.

  Further, the customer contract information storage unit 64 and the customer classification information storage unit 65 are realized by the memory 102 shown in FIG. One or more of the customer contract information storage unit 64, the customer classification information storage unit 65, the other company contract demand result storage unit 61, the other company contract fee history storage unit 62, and the other company contract change threshold storage unit 63. The memory for realizing the above may be the same as the memory for realizing the other components of these, or may be a different memory.

  Next, an electricity bill sales forecast process in the power bill forecasting apparatus 3 according to the third embodiment of the present invention will be described. FIG. 7 is a flowchart showing the procedure of the electricity price sales forecast process in the power price forecasting apparatus 3 according to the third embodiment of the present invention.

  In step S510, the customer classification processing unit 22 classifies each customer into a group of customers having the same contract method and a close contract method change threshold. First, the customer classification processing unit 22 selects a customer who has contracted with the same contract method based on the customer contract information. Next, the consumer classification processing unit 22 classifies the selected consumers into a consumer group with a close contract method change threshold.

  FIG. 8 is a schematic diagram showing an example of a method for classifying a plurality of consumers into a customer group having a contract system change threshold value close in the third embodiment of the present invention. As an example of a method of classifying a plurality of customers into a group of customers having a similar contract method change threshold, as shown in FIG. 8, the contract method change threshold is divided by the number to be classified, and the contract method in each specific division range Set the maximum and minimum values of the change threshold. Then, there is a method in which a customer whose contract method change threshold corresponds to each division range is regarded as a division range having a close contract method change threshold. In FIG. 8, the contract method change threshold is divided into a division range A in which the contract method change threshold is 0 to 600, a division range B in which the contract method change threshold is 601 to 1200, and a division range C in which the contract method change threshold is 1201 or more. It shows the case of classifying into two division ranges.

  FIG. 9 is a schematic diagram illustrating an example of a method for classifying a plurality of consumers into a consumer group having a contract system change threshold value close to that in Embodiment 3 of the present invention. Further, when it is assumed that the distribution of the contract method change threshold follows some distribution, as shown in FIG. 9, the area created by the distribution function of the contract method change threshold is equally divided into several divided ranges, and each divided A consumer whose contract method change threshold is plotted in a section may be regarded as having a close contract method change threshold. Further, the classification of each consumer may be classified using not only the contract method change threshold but also the contract destination change threshold. FIG. 9 shows a case where the contract method change threshold is classified into three division ranges of division range D, division range E, and division range F.

  By performing the above processing for each customer who has contracted by the same contract method, each customer can be classified into a customer group having the same contract method and a close contract method change threshold.

  The customer classification processing unit 22 causes the customer classification information storage unit 65 to store customer classification information related to the classification of each customer group. The customer classification information includes the contract method of the consumers belonging to the consumer group, the information of the consumers belonging to each consumer group, and the average demand actual value for each classification. Based on the demand result value and the customer classification information stored in the demand result storage unit 53, the average demand result value for each classification is calculated.

  Further, the consumer classification processing unit 22 is a classification that is an average value of the charge history of each consumer belonging to one consumer group based on the charge history information and the customer classification information stored in the charge history storage unit 54. The average charge history information is calculated and stored in the charge history storage unit 54.

  In the flow after the next step S520, the classified customer group is regarded as one customer, and the customer changes the contract method, changes the contract destination, or continues the same contract method. To predict whether or not to calculate sales. When the classified consumer group is regarded as one consumer and the number of contract changes is calculated, the processing flow after step S520 can be performed in the same manner as the flow shown in FIG. 3 in the first embodiment. . Therefore, the processing from step S520 to step S620 is performed in the same manner as the processing from step S120 to step S210 in FIG.

  However, when the classified consumer group is regarded as one consumer, the demand actual value of the consumer is an average demand actual value for each classification which is an average value of the demand actual values of a plurality of consumers belonging to the same consumer group. Is adopted. As for the change threshold, the average of the change thresholds of a plurality of consumers belonging to the customer group regarded as the same classification is adopted. In addition, when it is assumed that the change threshold value follows a certain distribution, the average value of the classified sections may be adopted.

  In the above, the case where the average demand actual value for each classification is calculated by the customer classification processing unit 22 and stored in the customer classification information storage unit 65 is shown. It may be calculated based on the actual demand value stored in 53 and the customer classification information.

  As described above, the power rate prediction apparatus 3 according to the third exemplary embodiment classifies consumers into a plurality of consumer groups, regards the classified consumer groups as one consumer, and contracts the consumer. Predict whether to change the method, change the contractor, or continue the current contract method, and calculate the sales forecast value. As the number of consumers subject to demand prediction increases, more calculation time costs are required for calculating the number of contract changes. By performing the process of calculating the number of contract changes each time the company's contract system is changed in various ways, the increase in calculation time cost appears remarkably. In the power rate prediction apparatus 3 according to the third exemplary embodiment, a process for calculating the number of contract changes is performed by performing processing that classifies a plurality of consumer groups and regards the classified consumer group as one consumer. It is possible to reduce the time and the time required for demand forecasting and sales forecasting.

Embodiment 4 FIG.
In the fourth embodiment, a method for setting the contract method change threshold and the contract destination change threshold, which are the change thresholds stored in the change threshold storage unit 55 in the first embodiment, will be described. FIG. 10 is a configuration diagram of a change threshold setting device included in the power rate prediction device according to the fourth exemplary embodiment of the present invention.

  In addition to the configuration of the first embodiment, the power rate prediction apparatus according to the fourth embodiment includes a customer attribute collection unit 23, a customer attribute storage unit 66, and a change threshold generation unit 24 in the change threshold storage unit 55. A change threshold value setting device that sets a change threshold value is configured.

  The customer attribute collection unit 23 collects customer attributes from customers who are customers contracted with the company. FIG. 11: is a figure which shows the example of the customer attribute in the electric power rate prediction apparatus concerning Embodiment 4 of this invention. The customer attribute is information about the customer, that is, the customer, and as shown in FIG. 11, information such as the number of family members, business non-existence, presence / absence of energy-saving GREE home appliances, presence / absence of solar panels, contractor age, etc. It is done. The method for collecting customer attributes is not particularly limited. As an example of a method for collecting customer attributes, a method for collecting customer attributes by mechanically collecting information input on the web page after a web page for conducting a questionnaire is opened in the customer attribute collection unit 23, a questionnaire sheet There is a method in which customer attributes are collected by the customer attribute collection unit 23 mechanically reading the contents of the answers collected by distributing. The collection process needs to be executed periodically and the customer attribute of the customer needs to be kept in a state that matches the current situation.

  The customer attribute storage unit 66 stores customer attributes of each customer.

  The change threshold generation unit 24 uses the customer attribute of the customer for which the change threshold is not set and the customer attribute of the customer for which the change threshold is set. By analogizing the contract method change threshold value and the contract destination change threshold value, the change threshold value for each customer is generated, and the generated change threshold value is set and stored in the change threshold value storage unit 55.

  The customer attribute collection unit 23 and the change threshold generation unit 24 are realized by the processor 101 illustrated in FIG. 2 executing a program stored in the memory 102. A plurality of processors and a plurality of memories may cooperate to realize the above function. Further, a part of the function of the customer attribute collection unit 23 may be mounted as an electronic circuit, and the other part may be realized using the processor 101 and the memory 102. Similarly, a part of the function of the change threshold generation unit 24 may be implemented as an electronic circuit, and the other part may be realized using the processor 101 and the memory 102. Further, the processor and the memory for realizing the customer attribute collection unit 23 may be the same as the processor and the memory for realizing other components including the change threshold value generation unit 24, or a different processor and memory. There may be. Further, the customer attribute storage unit 66 is realized by the memory 102 shown in FIG.

  Next, processing of the change threshold setting function unit in the power rate prediction apparatus according to the fourth exemplary embodiment of the present invention will be described. FIG. 12 is a flowchart showing a procedure of customer attribute collection processing and storage processing in the change threshold setting function unit according to the fourth embodiment of the present invention.

  In step S <b> 710, customer attributes are collected in the customer attribute collection unit 23 for customers who have contracted with the company, that is, customers, and the collected customer attributes are stored in the customer attribute storage unit 66. Here, it is assumed that a web page for conducting a questionnaire is opened in the customer attribute collection unit 23 and the customer attribute collection unit 23 mechanically collects information input to the web page.

  Next, in step S720, the customer attribute collection unit 23 refers to the change threshold storage unit 55 and determines whether or not there is a comparison-source consumer that is a customer for which no change threshold is set. If there is a comparison source consumer for which the change threshold is not set, that is, Yes in step S720, in step S730, the customer attribute collection unit 23 collects the customer attribute of the comparison source customer, and the customer attribute storage unit 66. With regard to this processing, any method may be used for collecting customer attributes. When there is no comparison source customer for which no change threshold is set, that is, in the case of No in step S720, the series of processes is terminated.

  FIG. 13 is a flowchart illustrating a procedure of a change threshold value generation process in the change threshold value setting function unit according to the fourth embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 14: is a figure which shows the example of the occupation rate corresponding to the customer attribute value in the electric power rate prediction apparatus concerning Embodiment 4 of this invention. In step S810, the change threshold value generation unit 24 calculates the occupancy rate of each customer attribute value for each customer attribute as shown in FIG. 14 for the reference customer who is the consumer for which the change threshold value is set. Occupancy rate refers to the proportion of customers with a certain customer attribute value.

  Next, in step S820, the change threshold generation unit 24 selects one reference consumer for which the change threshold is set, and compares the customer attribute of the reference consumer with the customer attribute of the comparison source consumer. To do.

  In step S830, the change threshold generation unit 24 uses the customer attributes common to the reference consumer and the comparison source consumer, that is, the same customer attributes in the customer attribute of the reference consumer and the customer attribute of the comparison source consumer. Add the reciprocal of the occupation ratio of each customer attribute. As an example, when the occupation ratio is 20%, the reciprocal of the occupation ratio is 5. Here, the reciprocal of the occupation ratio represents the weight of similarity between consumers. That is, the lower the occupation rate, the higher the similarity between consumers, and the reciprocal of the occupation rate in this case becomes large. The change threshold value generation unit 24 adds all the reciprocals of the customer attribute occupancy common to the reference consumer and the comparison-source consumer, and generates a reciprocal addition value. When there is only one common customer attribute, the reciprocal of the occupation ratio of the customer attribute value of the customer attribute becomes the reciprocal addition value as it is.

  In step S840, the change threshold value generation unit 24 determines whether or not customer attributes have been compared for all reference consumers. If the customer attributes are not compared for all the reference consumers, that is, if No in step S840, the process returns to step S820.

  When the customer attributes are compared for all the reference consumers, that is, in the case of Yes in step S840, in step S850, the change threshold value generation unit 24 sets α in advance in descending order of the values in all the reciprocal addition values. Select only human customers. That is, the change threshold value generation unit 24 selects α reciprocal addition values in descending order of all reciprocal addition values. α is a natural number.

  Next, in step S860, the change threshold value generation unit 24 acquires the contract method change threshold value of the selected α consumers from the change threshold value storage unit 55, and calculates an arithmetic average of the acquired contract method change threshold values. Then, the change threshold value generation unit 24 sets and stores the arithmetic average of the calculated contract method change threshold values in the change threshold value storage unit 55 as the contract method change threshold value of the comparison source consumer for which no change threshold value is set. Moreover, the change threshold value generation unit 24 acquires the contract destination change threshold value of the selected α customers from the change threshold value storage unit 55, and calculates an arithmetic average of the acquired contract destination change threshold values. Then, the change threshold generation unit 24 sets and stores the arithmetic average of the calculated contract destination change threshold in the change threshold storage unit 55 as the contract destination change threshold of the comparison-source consumer for which the change threshold is not set. By the above process, the change threshold value of the comparison-source consumer in which the change threshold value is not set can be set.

  However, in the determination of step S840, even if the comparison processing of customer attributes for all reference consumers is completed, if there is no reference consumer having the same customer attribute value as the comparison source consumer, the contract method The change threshold and the contractor change threshold are determined such as 10% of the monthly average electricity rate.

  As described above, in the power rate prediction apparatus according to the fourth embodiment, a customer attribute of a consumer for which a change threshold is not set is a demand that has a similar threshold to the customer attribute for which the change threshold is set. Generate by analogy using the house change threshold. As a result, the power rate prediction apparatus according to the fourth exemplary embodiment can set the initial value of the change threshold value of the consumer for which the change threshold value is not set to a highly reliable value from the customer attribute of the consumer. is there. Therefore, it is possible to set the initial value of the change threshold value of a customer who has not set the change threshold value to a highly reliable value compared to the case of setting by a random setting method or a method of setting some constant. It is.

Embodiment 5. FIG.
In the fifth embodiment, an update method of the contract method change threshold and the contract destination change threshold, which is a change threshold stored in the change threshold storage unit 55 in the first embodiment, will be described. FIG. 15: is a block diagram of the change threshold value update apparatus which the electric power rate prediction apparatus concerning Embodiment 5 of this invention has.

  In addition to the basic configuration of the first embodiment, the power rate prediction apparatus according to the fifth embodiment includes a customer contract information storage unit 64, a customer contract information management unit 25, a change threshold update unit 26, and a demand record. The storage unit 53 and the fee history storage unit 54 constitute a change threshold update device that updates the change threshold stored in the change threshold storage unit 55.

  The customer contract information management unit 25 updates and manages the customer contract information in the customer contract information storage unit 64 when the customer changes the contract destination or the contract method.

  When the customer changes the contract, the change threshold update unit 26 changes the contract method of the consumer, that is, the contract method change threshold and the contract destination change threshold, which are change thresholds, in accordance with the change of the contract destination or the change of the contract method. Update.

  The customer contract information management unit 25 and the change threshold update unit 26 are realized by the processor 101 illustrated in FIG. 2 executing a program stored in the memory 102. A plurality of processors and a plurality of memories may cooperate to realize the above function. Further, a part of the functions of the customer contract information management unit 25 may be mounted as an electronic circuit, and the other part may be realized using the processor 101 and the memory 102. Similarly, a part of the function of the change threshold update unit 26 may be implemented as an electronic circuit, and the other part may be realized using the processor 101 and the memory 102. In addition, the processor and memory for realizing one or more of the customer contract information management unit 25 and the change threshold update unit 26 are the charge calculation unit 11, the charge comparison unit 12, and the contract change number calculation unit. 13, the demand prediction unit 14, and the estimated charge calculation unit 15 may be the same as a processor and a memory that realize one or more other components, or may be another processor and a memory. Good.

  Next, processing of the change threshold update unit 26 in the power rate prediction apparatus according to the fifth exemplary embodiment of the present invention will be described. FIG. 16 is a flowchart showing a procedure of customer attribute collection processing and storage processing in the change threshold update unit of the power rate prediction apparatus according to the fifth exemplary embodiment of the present invention.

  In step S1010, when the customer changes the contract, the customer contract information management unit 25 detects the contract change behavior of the customer, acquires the changed contract method information, and the customer contract information storage unit 64. The customer contract information is updated, and the changed contract method is stored in the customer contract information storage unit 64. The method for detecting the contract change behavior of the customer is not particularly limited. As an example, when a customer changes the contract, a notification to that effect from the device that manages the customer's contract within the company, and if the contract change is a change of the contracted party, the contract method after the change Is transmitted to the customer contract information management unit 25.

  Next, in step S <b> 1020, the change threshold update unit 26 acquires, from the charge history storage unit 54, the monthly average electricity charge of the consumer who has changed the contract.

  Next, in step S1030, the change threshold update unit 26 acquires, from the demand result storage unit 53, the monthly average demand result value of the customer who has changed the contract, and the electricity in the contract that the customer has newly changed. Calculate the predicted electricity price, which is a charge. Note that if the contract change is a change in the contracted party, the predicted electricity rate is calculated by the contract method of the cheapest other company that the company can grasp at this point.

  Next, in step S1040, the change threshold update unit 26 calculates the difference between the monthly average electricity rate and the predicted electricity rate.

  Next, in step S1050, the change threshold update unit 26 determines whether or not the calculated difference is different from the change threshold stored in the change threshold storage unit 55. If the calculated difference is not different from the change threshold value stored in the change threshold value storage unit 55, that is, if No in step S1050, the series of processing ends.

  On the other hand, if the calculated difference is different from the change threshold stored in the change threshold storage unit 55, that is, if Yes in step S1050, the change threshold update unit 26 newly changes the calculated difference in step S1060. The threshold value is set and stored in the change threshold value storage unit 55 as a threshold value. However, if the customer's contract change is a contract system change, only the contract system change threshold is changed, and if the customer contract is changed, only the contract destination change threshold is changed. Thereby, when the customer changes the contractor or the contract method, the difference between the electricity charge before the change and the predicted electricity charge after the change can be reflected in the change threshold.

  As described above, the change threshold update apparatus in the power rate prediction apparatus according to the fifth embodiment updates the change threshold of the consumer every time the consumer changes the contract destination or the contract method. The change threshold of a certain customer is updated. Thereby, the change threshold value can be updated to a value with higher reliability along the actual behavior pattern of the consumer than the current change threshold value of the consumer. For customers who have changed their contracts and no longer have contracts with their own companies, updating the change threshold to a value that is in line with the actual behavior pattern of the customer will result in more customer attribute distribution. It will be in line with the current behavior pattern.

Embodiment 6 FIG.
In the sixth embodiment, a method of updating the contract method change threshold and the contract destination change threshold, which are change thresholds stored in the change threshold storage unit 55 in the first embodiment, will be described. Currently, customers can receive a discount on electricity charges by paying together electricity charges with other energy charges such as gas or heat, telephone charges, TV viewing charges, Internet charges, etc. A payment system is in place. Along with the liberalization of electricity retailing, a service provider collects the costs related to such a living infrastructure in a lump sum and contracts with the customer to increase the convenience of payment for the customer and to enclose the customer. Be expanded. At this time, the customer makes a contract for the service in a lump and performs a lump sum payment, whereby a discount is applied to the payment amount. For this reason, when changing the contract method and contractor of power, it is necessary to take into account that this discount is not applicable, and the electricity charges paid after the change of the contract method or contractor will be affected.

  FIG. 17: is a block diagram of the change threshold value update apparatus which the electric power rate prediction apparatus concerning Embodiment 6 of this invention has. The power rate prediction apparatus according to the sixth exemplary embodiment includes a consumer collective contract information storage unit 67 and a discount-linked change threshold update unit 27 in the configuration of the first embodiment, and includes a change threshold storage unit. 55 includes a change threshold update device that updates the change threshold stored in 55.

  The customer collective contract information storage unit 67 stores a discount amount of a collective payment system that is cheaper when a customer contracts with other services together with electric power and makes a collective payment. The consumer collective contract information storage unit 67 stores list information of users who use the collective payment system.

  The discount-linked change threshold update unit 27 updates the change threshold by reflecting the discount amount when the electricity price is not cheap because the conditions of the lump sum payment system are not satisfied.

  The discount interlocking type change threshold update unit 27 is realized by the processor 101 illustrated in FIG. 2 executing a program stored in the memory 102. A plurality of processors and a plurality of memories may cooperate to realize the above function. Further, a part of the function of the discount interlocking type change threshold update unit 27 may be implemented as an electronic circuit, and the other part may be realized using the processor 101 and the memory 102. The processor and memory for realizing the discount-linked change threshold update unit 27 include a charge calculation unit 11, a charge comparison unit 12, a contract change number calculation unit 13, a demand prediction unit 14, and a predicted charge calculation unit. 15 may be the same as a processor and a memory for realizing other components including 15 or a different processor and memory. The customer collective contract information storage unit 67 is realized by the memory 102 shown in FIG.

  Next, processing of the change threshold update apparatus in the power rate prediction apparatus according to the sixth exemplary embodiment of the present invention will be described. FIG. 18 is a flowchart showing a procedure of customer attribute collection processing and storage processing in the change threshold update apparatus according to Embodiment 6 of the present invention.

  In step S <b> 1210, the discount interlocking type change threshold update unit 27 acquires the list information of customers using the collective payment system from the customer collective contract information storage unit 67.

  Next, in step S1220, the discount interlocking type change threshold update unit 27 selects one consumer from the list information as a target for determining whether or not the discount application is canceled.

  In step S1230, the discount-linked change threshold update unit 27 determines whether or not the currently received discount is not applicable when the contract method is changed for the customer, that is, whether or not the discount is canceled. To do. The contract method that allows you to receive a discount on charges by applying the lump sum payment system is determined by a specific contract method. The discount interlocking type change threshold update unit 27 stores in advance information on a contract method to which the lump sum payment system is applied.

  If the currently received discount is not applicable, that is, Yes in step S1230, the discount-linked change threshold update unit 27 adds the discount amount to the customer's contract method change threshold in step S1240. The contract method change threshold stored in the change threshold storage unit 55 is updated and stored, and the process proceeds to step S1250.

  On the other hand, if the currently received discount is not excluded, that is, if No in step S1230, the process proceeds to step S1250.

  Next, in step S1250, the discount interlocking type change threshold update unit 27 performs determination processing for determining whether or not the discount application is canceled for all the customers in the list information of the customers using the collective payment system. It is determined whether or not.

  If all customers in the list information have not been subjected to the process of determining whether or not to cancel the application of the discount, that is, if No in step S1250, the process returns to step S1220.

  On the other hand, when the determination process of whether or not the discount application is canceled is performed for all the customers in the list information, that is, in the case of Yes in step S1250, the series of processes is terminated.

  As described above, the power rate prediction apparatus according to the sixth embodiment uses a collective payment system that makes a discount by collectively contracting and paying for other services together with power. It is possible to predict the demand amount considering the fact that there is no merit when paying in a lump for the consumers who are paying. Use the lump sum payment system by updating the contract method change threshold and the contract destination change threshold to reflect the cancellation of discount application in the lump sum payment system, and then calculate the sales forecast value by performing the processing in the first embodiment. It is possible to calculate a sales forecast value more in line with the actual situation in consideration of the contract change of the customer who is doing.

  That is, in the sixth embodiment, a discount amount is obtained from a current contract content for a customer who makes a service contract and pays in a lump sum, and the discount is not applicable. By reflecting in the contract method change threshold and the contractor change threshold, it is possible to predict in detail whether or not the customer will continue the contract with the company, and to calculate the sales forecast value in accordance with the actual situation Is possible.

Embodiment 7 FIG.
In the seventh embodiment, an update method of the contract method change threshold and the contract destination change threshold, which is a change threshold stored in the change threshold storage unit 55 in the first embodiment, will be described. A contract period is set for each contract method, and if you change the contract method or the contract party at a time other than the expiration date of the set contract period, you will join a contract method with a financial disadvantage that will result in a penalty. It is necessary to consider the trends of consumers.

  FIG. 19 is a configuration diagram of a change threshold update device included in the power rate prediction device according to the seventh exemplary embodiment of the present invention. In addition to the configuration of the first embodiment, the power rate prediction apparatus according to the seventh embodiment includes a customer collective contract information storage unit 67, an in-house contract method constraint information storage unit 68, and another company contract method constraint information storage unit 69. And a change threshold update device that updates the change threshold stored in the change threshold storage unit 55 by the penalty interlocking type change threshold update processing unit 28.

  In addition to the discount amount of the collective payment system and the list information of consumers who use the collective payment system, the customer collective contract information storage unit 67 has a contract period based on constraints. Information of customers who have contracts that are set and incur a penalty due to contract changes within a predetermined period is stored.

  The in-house contract method constraint information storage unit 68 stores constraint conditions set for the in-house contract method, such as a contract period and a penalty. The other company contract method constraint information storage unit 69 stores constraint conditions such as a contract period and a penalty set for the contract method of the other company.

  The penalty interlocking type change threshold update processing unit 28 changes the contract method change threshold and the contract destination change threshold which are change thresholds in consideration of the restriction condition set for the contract method and reflects the penalty generated by the constraint condition. To do.

  The penalty interlocking type change threshold update processing unit 28 is realized by the processor 101 illustrated in FIG. 2 executing a program stored in the memory 102. A plurality of processors and a plurality of memories may cooperate to realize the above function. Further, a part of the function of the penalty interlocking type change threshold update processing unit 28 may be mounted as an electronic circuit, and the other part may be realized using the processor 101 and the memory 102. The processor and memory for realizing the penalty interlocking type change threshold update processing unit 28 include a charge calculation unit 11, a charge comparison unit 12, a contract change number calculation unit 13, a demand prediction unit 14, and a predicted charge calculation. It may be the same as a processor and a memory for realizing other components including the unit 15, or may be another processor and a memory. The in-house contract method constraint information storage unit 68 and the other company contract method constraint information storage unit 69 are realized by the memory 102 shown in FIG.

  Next, the process of the change threshold update unit in the power rate prediction apparatus according to the seventh exemplary embodiment of the present invention will be described. FIG. 20 is a flowchart showing a procedure of customer attribute collection processing and storage processing in the change threshold update apparatus according to Embodiment 7 of the present invention.

  In step S1410, the penalty interlocking type change threshold update processing unit 28 sets a contract period based on the constraint condition from the customer collective contract information storage unit 67, and a penalty is generated due to a contract change within a predetermined period. The list information of customers having contracts to acquire is acquired.

  Next, in step S1420, the penalty interlocking type change threshold update processing unit 28 selects, from the list information, one consumer that is a target for determining whether or not there is a penalty.

  Next, in step S1430, the penalty interlocking type change threshold update processing unit 28 determines whether or not a penalty is generated when the contract method is changed for the consumer. The penalty interlocking type change threshold update processing unit 28 acquires the constraint condition set for the contract system of the company or the other company from the own company contract system constraint information storage unit 68 or the other company contract system constraint information storage unit 69, and the constraint condition Based on the above, it is determined whether or not a penalty is generated.

  If a penalty occurs, that is, if Yes in step S1430, in step S1440, the penalty interlocking type change threshold update processing unit 28 adds the amount of the penalty to the contract method change threshold of the consumer and stores the change threshold. The contract method change threshold stored in the unit 55 is updated and stored, and the process proceeds to step S1450.

  On the other hand, if no penalty occurs, that is, if No in step S1430, the process proceeds to step S1450.

  Next, in step S1450, the penalty interlocking type change threshold update processing unit 28 determines whether or not there is a penalty for all the customers in the list information of customers who have a contract that generates a penalty based on the constraint condition. It is determined whether the determination process has been performed.

  If all customers in the list information have not been subjected to the processing for determining whether or not there is a penalty, that is, if No in step S1450, the process returns to step S1420.

  On the other hand, in the case where determination processing for whether or not there is a penalty has been performed for all customers in the list information, that is, in the case of Yes in step S1450, the series of processing ends.

  As described above, the power rate prediction apparatus according to the seventh exemplary embodiment has a contract period set according to the constraint condition, and a consumer whose penalty is caused by a contract change within a predetermined period is within the contract period. Since it is necessary to pay a penalty in the case of a contract change, it is possible to calculate a sales forecast value more in line with actual circumstances in consideration of not actively changing the contract.

  That is, in the seventh embodiment, the contract period is set, and the amount of the penalty generated from the current contract contents is reflected in the change threshold for the customer who generates the penalty due to the contract change within the predetermined period. By doing so, it is possible to predict in more detail whether the customer will continue the contract with the company or whether it will continue the contract with the other company, and calculate the sales forecast value more in line with the actual situation Is possible.

  The configuration shown in the above embodiment shows an example of the contents of the present invention, and each embodiment can be combined, or can be combined with another known technique, It is also possible to omit or change a part of the configuration without departing from the gist of the present invention.

  DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Electricity rate prediction apparatus, 11 Rate calculation part, 12 Rate comparison part, 13 Contract change number calculation part, 14 Demand prediction part, 15 Forecast charge calculation part, 21 Charge increment calculation part, 22 Consumer classification process part, 23 Customer attribute Collection unit, 24 change threshold value generation unit, 25 customer contract information management unit, 26 change threshold value update unit, 27 discount-linked type change threshold value update unit, 28 contract-linked type change threshold value update processing unit, 51 own company contract method storage unit, 52 Other company contract method storage unit, 53 Demand record storage unit, 54 Fee history storage unit, 55 Change threshold value storage unit, 61 Other company contract demand result storage unit, 62 Other company contract fee history storage unit, 63 Other company contract change threshold storage unit, 64 Demand House contract information storage unit, 65 Customer classification information storage unit, 66 Customer attribute storage unit, 67 Customer collective contract information storage unit, 68 Company contract system constraint information storage unit, 6 Companies contract system constraint information storage unit, 101 a processor, 102 a memory, 103 input unit, 104 display unit, 105 communication unit, 106 an internal bus.

Claims (8)

Based on the information on the plurality of first contract schemes of the first power supply provider and the past demand actual values of power in the plurality of consumers contracting with the first power supply provider, the customer The cheapest first electricity rate corresponding to the past actual demand value for each is calculated, information on a plurality of second contract schemes of a plurality of second power supply companies, and the past at the plurality of consumers A charge calculation unit that calculates the cheapest second electricity charge corresponding to the past demand actual value for each consumer, based on the actual demand value of
For all the consumers, the first charge difference that is the difference between the charge history information that is the payment history of the consumer and the first electricity charge, and the difference between the charge history information and the second electricity charge A charge comparison unit for calculating a second charge difference;
The first fee difference and the second fee difference, and a default contract destination change threshold for predicting whether or not the customer changes the contract destination or whether the customer changes the first contract method The customer who is expected not to change the contract from the first power supply provider to the second power supply company based on a predetermined contract method change threshold for predicting whether or not Contract change count calculation unit that generates information on remaining contract customers,
A demand forecasting unit that calculates a demand forecast value of power for each consumer from the past demand actual value of the consumer;
Based on the information on the remaining contract customers, the demand forecast value for each of the consumers, and the information on the first contract method corresponding to the remaining contract customers, the electricity for all the remaining contract customers A forecasted price calculator that calculates the total price,
A power rate prediction apparatus comprising: A first contract method storage unit for storing information on the first contract method;
A second contract method storage unit for storing information on the second contract method;
A demand record storage unit for storing the demand record values in the plurality of consumers;
A charge history storage unit for storing the charge history information;
A change threshold storage unit for storing the contract method change threshold for each consumer and the contractor change threshold;
The power rate prediction apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising: Based on the information on the plurality of first contract methods and the past actual power demand values in a plurality of external contract customers contracting with the second power supply company, the charge calculation unit, Calculate the cheapest third electricity rate corresponding to the past actual demand value for each external contract customer,
The charge comparison unit calculates, for all the external contract customers, a third charge difference that is a difference between charge history information that is a payment history of the external contract consumer and the third electric charge,
The contract change number calculation unit is expected to change the contract from the second power supplier to the first power supplier based on the third electricity rate and the contract destination change threshold. Generating information on inflow contract customers that are external contract customers,
The demand forecasting unit calculates a power demand forecast value for each external contract customer from the past demand actual value of the external contract customer,
Based on the information on the inflow contract customer, the demand forecast value for each external contract customer, and the information on the first contract method corresponding to the third electricity rate, all the inflow contract consumers Providing a charge increment calculation unit for calculating the total electricity charge;
The power rate prediction apparatus according to claim 2, wherein: Based on the contract method change threshold and customer contract information that is information on the first contract method with which each customer has contracted, the information on the first contract method is the same, and the contract method change threshold Has a customer classification processing unit that classifies all customers into a plurality of groups to which customers corresponding to a specific range belong,
The plurality of groups are regarded as one consumer;
The power rate prediction apparatus according to claim 2, wherein: A customer attribute collection unit that collects customer attributes that are information about the customer who has contracted with the first power supply company;
A customer attribute storage unit for storing the customer attribute;
The customer attribute of the consumer for which the contract destination change threshold and the contract method change threshold are not set, and the customer attribute of the consumer for which the contract destination change threshold and the contract method change threshold are set Based on the contract destination change threshold and the contract method change threshold, the change threshold generation unit for generating the contract method change threshold and the contract destination change threshold of the consumer by analogy,
The power rate prediction apparatus according to claim 2, further comprising: A customer contract information storage unit for storing customer contract information which is information on a contract method with which each customer has contracted;
A customer contract information management unit that updates the customer contract information in the customer contract information storage unit when the customer changes the contract destination or the first contract method;
In response to a change in a customer's contract destination or a change in the first contract method, a change threshold update unit that updates the contract method change threshold and the contract destination change threshold;
The power rate prediction apparatus according to claim 2, further comprising: A consumer collective contract information storage unit that stores a discount amount at which the electricity charge is discounted by paying a charge for other services together with the electricity charge,
A discount-linked change threshold update unit that updates the contract method change threshold to reflect the discount amount when the electricity rate is not cheap;
The power rate prediction apparatus according to claim 2, further comprising: A first contract scheme constraint information storage unit that stores constraint conditions set for the first contract scheme;
A penalty interlocking type change threshold update processing unit that updates the contract method change threshold reflecting the penalty generated by the constraint condition;
The power rate prediction apparatus according to claim 2, further comprising:

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