JP2017015453A - Control processing apparatus for dam management and control processing method for dam management - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a control processing apparatus for dam management, capable of performing highly accurate outflow forecasting by comparing and analyzing rainfall forecast data created on the basis of the weather forecast and past-observed actual data.SOLUTION: A control processing apparatus for dam management includes: a discharge operation device in which a storage unit stores at least observation data of amount and duration of rainfall during a period with a predetermined amount or more of rainfall; and an actual data storage unit which accumulates and stores a part or entire of the observation data as actual rainfall data, a forecast data storage unit which stores forecast data including forecast amount and duration of rainfall forecasted from the observation data, and means for comparing and collating the actual rainfall data in the actual data storage unit and the forecasted forecast data, selecting at least one or more actual rainfall data that has similar rainfall patterns to the forecast data and outputting the same to the discharge operation device.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

Embodiments described herein relate generally to a dam management control processing apparatus and a dam management control processing method.

The control treatment facility for dam management performs discharge control for the purpose of flood control. The amount of discharge is sometimes enormous and can affect people, commercial facilities and fields that live downstream. Therefore, the control processing facility for dam management uses the outflow prediction function to perform outflow prediction in order to perform proper discharge. The outflow prediction means, for example, predicting the amount of water level rise downstream of the river when the discharge amount of the dam is increased and the amount of water flowing from the dam to the river increases.

When runoff prediction is performed, “inflow” and “predicted rainfall” are used as parameters for runoff prediction calculation. However, since the accuracy of these two parameters is not determined, the accuracy of outflow prediction tends to decrease. In detail, the “inflow” is calculated by calculating back from the predicted rainfall, but there are multiple methods for calculating the inflow, and it is necessary to select an appropriate method for each water storage facility. However, since it is necessary to consider a lot of information such as the amount of water collected and the operation method for each water storage facility, it is difficult to select an accurate method. In addition, the “predicted rainfall” is manually input by an operator, but since this input inputs constant average value data for each period, accurate data transition cannot be acquired in the long term.

In recent years, sudden and localized torrential rains called guerrilla heavy rains have suddenly increased, resulting in diversified rainfall patterns, which can cause drastic changes in storage levels that have not been seen before.

From the above, it is required as an important issue to easily and accurately predict runoff and predict the discharge flow and the water level rise downstream of the river in advance.

JP-A-6-116930 JP 2009-300311 A

The problem to be solved by the present invention is for dam management capable of performing highly accurate runoff prediction by comparing and analyzing rainfall forecast data created based on weather forecasts and actual data observed in the past. A control processing device and a dam management control processing method are provided.

The control processing device for dam management according to the present embodiment includes a discharge operation device that stores observation data of at least rainfall and rainfall time in a storage unit in a period when there is rainfall of a predetermined amount or more, and a part of the observation data Or the actual data storage part which accumulates and stores all as rain actual data, the prediction data storage part which memorize | stores the prediction data containing the predicted rainfall amount and the estimated rainfall time estimated from the said observation data, and the said rain of the said result data storage part Means for comparing and collating actual data with the predicted prediction data, selecting at least one or more rainfall actual data having a similar rainfall pattern to the predicted data, and outputting the selected data to the discharge operation device. And

The control processing method for dam management according to the present embodiment stores at least the observation data of the rainfall amount and the rainfall time in the storage unit of the discharge operation device during a period when there is more than a predetermined amount of rainfall, and a part of the observation data Alternatively, all of the accumulated rainfall is stored in the actual data storage unit as the actual rainfall data, and the predicted data including the predicted rainfall amount and the predicted rainfall time predicted from the observed data is stored in the predicted data storage unit. The actual data and the predicted data are compared and collated, and at least one or more rainfall actual data having a rainfall pattern similar to the predicted data is selected and output to the discharge operation device.

The block diagram which shows the structure of the control processing apparatus for dam management which concerns on embodiment. The block diagram which shows the outflow prediction apparatus which concerns on embodiment. The table | surface which shows an example of the rainfall performance data which concern on embodiment. The table | surface which shows an example of the prediction data which concern on embodiment. The flowchart showing the operation | movement at the time of performing the outflow prediction which concerns on embodiment.

Hereinafter, a dam management control processing apparatus and a dam management control processing method according to embodiments will be described with reference to the drawings.

FIG. 1 shows a basic configuration of a dam management control processing apparatus 100 according to the embodiment. The dam management control processing apparatus 100 includes a control system for controlling the discharge amount of the dam and an information system for inputting information necessary for the control.

The control system includes a gate facility 13 and a discharge operation device 14 connected to the control system LAN 11. The gate facility 13 has a function of measuring numerical values necessary for dam management such as a reservoir level and discharge flow rate of the dam, sending data to the discharge operation device 14, and controlling the sluice gate at the time of discharge. The discharge operation device 14 performs all operations related to discharge. Further, the discharge operation device 14 includes the storage unit 1.
5 and a display unit 16. The storage unit 15 stores various amount data of the dam sent from the gate facility 13 as a master file. In addition, information received from the information input / providing device 17 described later is also stored. The display unit 16 displays information necessary for dam management, such as various dam data and outflow prediction result data. The discharge operation device 14 is also connected to the information system LAN 12 and can exchange data with each device of the information system.

The information system includes the information input / providing device 17 connected to the information system LAN 12 and the outflow prediction device 1.
8 has. The information input / providing device 17 is connected to a weather observation facility A,
Input various observation data sent from B and various information obtained from outside such as forecast weather data. At the same time, it is connected to the host organization and provides data. The outflow prediction device 18 is a dam quantity data stored in the storage unit 15 of the discharge operation device 14 and an information input / providing device 17.
Based on the information input from, the amount of rise in the downstream river is predicted.

FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing details of the outflow prediction device 18. The outflow prediction device 18 includes a main control unit 21, a performance data storage unit 22, a prediction data storage unit 23, a data input unit 24, and a data comparison / analysis unit 25.

Of the data stored in the storage unit 15 of the discharge operating device 14, data (a part or all) selected by the operator is input to the data input unit 24. Results data storage unit 2
2 accumulates and stores past data from several decades ago as rainfall record data for each rainfall record. In addition, the prediction data storage unit 23 stores prediction data related to rainfall, such as predicted rainfall, among various information input from the information input / providing device 17.

The data comparison / analysis unit 25 compares / analyzes the rainfall record data in the record data storage unit 22 and the prediction data in the prediction data storage unit 23, and selects the rainfall record most similar to the prediction data from the rainfall record data. At the same time, the water level rise of the downstream river is calculated based on the actual rainfall. The selected rainfall record and the calculated river level rise information are sent to the discharge operation device 14.
Then, the discharge operation device 14 sounds an alarm (not shown) to alert the monitoring staff and at the same time displays the information sent to the display unit 16.

FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating an example of rainfall record data stored in the record data storage unit 22. The rainfall record data is the rainfall record No. For example, the data from the beginning to the end of the landing is 1
Remembered every hour. The contents of the data are the date and time of rainfall, rainfall (mm), water storage level (m)
, Discharge flow rate (t). Moreover, the water level increase rate (%) showing the average water level fluctuation | variation is also memorize | stored with respect to each rainfall performance data.

FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an example of prediction data stored in the prediction data storage unit 23. The predicted data includes predicted rainfall (mm) and predicted rainfall time (mm) input from the information input / providing device 17.
h), a predicted water storage level (m) predicted from the rainfall, and a water level increase rate (%) calculated from the rainfall time and the value of the water level fluctuation. Predictive data is from start to finish
Added or updated.

FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing a dam management control processing method of the dam management control processing apparatus 100, and particularly a flowchart showing an operation when the outflow is predicted.

The meteorological observation facilities A and B adjacent to the monitoring area always observe the rainfall (S501), and the information input / providing device 17 receives the observation data and sends the data to the discharge operation device 14.

The discharge operation device 14 temporarily stores the observation data in the storage unit 15 and displays the observation data on the display unit 16. A monitor who monitors the observation data monitors whether the amount of rainfall sent reaches a predetermined amount while viewing the screen of the display unit 16. When the rainfall is within the predetermined amount, monitoring of the rainfall is continued (no in S501).

On the other hand, when this rainfall amount exceeds the predetermined amount (Yes in S502), the discharge operation device 1
The monitoring person who monitors the observation data aggregated and displayed on the display screen 16 of the display unit 16 displays the rainfall amount (mm), the water storage level (m), the discharge flow rate (t), and the rainfall time (h ), Water level rise rate (
%) Is stored in the result data storage unit 22 of the outflow prediction device 18 (S503).

At the same time, the runoff prediction device 18 calculates the predicted rainfall amount (mm), predicted rainfall time (h), and predicted storage level (m) for the current rainfall based on the predicted weather data input from the information input / providing device 17. It memorize | stores in the prediction data memory | storage part 23 (S504).

The data comparison / analysis unit 25 compares the result data stored in the result data storage unit 22 in this way with the prediction data stored in the prediction data storage unit 23 (S505). And
At least one or more (or a plurality of) may be retrieved from the actual data storage unit 22 for the actual rain data having a high similarity to the rain pattern of the predicted data (S506). For example, the data comparison / analysis unit 25 outputs, to the discharge operation device 14, the three rainfall record data as the search results from the rainfall records with high similarity.

In addition, the similarity of the rain pattern is the amount of rainfall per unit time such as the fluctuation of the water level rise rate, a small amount of rain falling over a long time, or a large amount of rain in a short time, and the typhoon passing Judging from the weather conditions before and after raining. In particular, a rainfall record with a similar value of the water level rise rate is treated as a rainfall record with a high degree of similarity because the water level downstream of the river is likely to move in the same way as in the past.

Subsequently, the data comparison / analysis unit 25 calculates the amount of increase in the water level downstream of the river based on the selected three rainfall record data. Assuming that the current rainfall is the same as the selected rainfall record, the rainfall, rainfall time, storage level, and water level rise rate are calculated separately from the weather forecast. In addition, when the gate is fully opened at that time, the amount of water level rise downstream of the river is calculated and predicted in the same way (
S507).

The data comparison / analysis unit 25 sends the selected three rainfall record data and the calculated prediction data to the discharge operation device 14. Then, the discharge operating device 14 sounds an alarm (not shown) to call attention, and displays the selected three rainfall record data and the calculated prediction data together on the display unit 16 (S508).

In this way, it is possible to predict how the current rainfall will be in the future when more than the predetermined amount of rainfall occurs, and as a result, it is possible to accurately predict the amount of water level rise downstream of the river. Become. In addition, the observer determines the opening and closing timing of the gate based on the result,
Even if harmful release is unavoidable, it is possible to take measures such as issuing a warning early.

Since the present invention does not simply predict runoff from predicted rainfall, but performs runoff prediction with reference to the actual rainfall, which has a similar rainfall pattern, it is possible to perform runoff prediction with high accuracy based on the actual results. At the same time, it is possible to predict runoff with high accuracy even for rainfall that is difficult to predict, such as guerrilla heavy rain.

Although some embodiments have been described, these embodiments are presented as examples and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention. These novel embodiments can be implemented in various other forms, and various omissions, replacements, and changes can be made without departing from the scope of the invention. These embodiments and modifications thereof are included in the scope and gist of the invention, and are included in the invention described in the claims and the equivalents thereof.

11 Control LAN
12 Information system LAN
13 Gate Facility 14 Discharge Operation Device 15 Storage Unit 16 Display Unit 17 Information Input / Provision Device 18 Outflow Prediction Device 21 Main Control Unit 22 Actual Data Storage Unit 23 Prediction Data Storage Unit 24 Data Input Unit 25 Data Comparison / Analysis Unit

Claims (10)

A discharge operation device for storing observation data of at least rainfall and rainfall time in a storage unit during a period of rainfall exceeding a predetermined amount;
An actual data storage unit that accumulates and stores part or all of the observed data as actual rainfall data, a predicted data storage unit that stores predicted data including predicted rainfall amount and predicted rainfall time predicted from the observed data, and the actual results Means for comparing and collating the actual rainfall data in the data storage unit with the predicted prediction data, selecting at least one or more actual rainfall data having a similar rainfall pattern to the predicted data, and outputting the selected data to the discharge operation device; ,
A control processing apparatus for dam management characterized by comprising: The said storage part further memorize | stores the water storage level from a dam, and the discharge flow from a dam, The control processing apparatus for dam management of Claim 1 characterized by the above-mentioned. The discharge operation device includes a storage unit that stores the observation data, and a display unit that displays the observation data.
The dam management control processing apparatus according to claim 1, wherein necessary data is extracted from the observation data displayed on the display unit and output as the actual rainfall data. . 4. The dam management control processing device according to claim 3, wherein the discharge operation device displays the selected one or more performance data on the display unit and performs an alarm notification. The control processing apparatus for dam management according to any one of claims 1 and 2, wherein the amount of rise in the water level downstream of the river is predicted based on the similar rainfall record data. Store at least the observation data of rainfall and rainfall time in the storage unit of the discharge operation device during the period when there was more rainfall than the predetermined amount,
A part or all of the observed data is accumulated and stored in the actual data storage unit as the actual rainfall data, and the predicted data including the predicted rainfall amount and the predicted rainfall time predicted from the observed data is stored in the predicted data storage unit,
By comparing and collating the actual rainfall data in the actual data storage unit with the predicted data predicted, at least one or more actual rainfall data having a similar rainfall pattern to the predicted data is selected and output to the discharge operation device. A control processing method for dam management characterized by the above. The dam management control processing method according to claim 6, wherein the storage unit further stores a water storage level from the dam and a discharge amount from the dam. 8. The observation data is displayed on a display unit of the discharge operation device, and necessary data is extracted from the displayed observation data and output as the actual rainfall data. The control processing method for dam management according to item 1. 9. The dam management control processing method according to claim 8, wherein the one or more selected rainfall record data are displayed on the display unit of the discharge operation device, and an alarm is used for notification. The dam management control processing method according to any one of claims 6 and 7, wherein the amount of rise in the water level downstream of the river is predicted based on the similar rainfall record data.

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