JP2016136801A - Outage time zone prediction device, outage time zone prediction method, and program - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide an outage predicting device which outputs an alarm signal.SOLUTION: An outage time zone predicting device 8 predicts an electric power system outage time zone to which a first power generation device 2 in which a load frequency control is performed so as to be balanced a requirement and a supply of an electric power between loads 5-1 to 5-n, and that supplies the electric power to the load, and a second power generation device 4 that supplies the load by using a renewable energy, and a first storage battery 3 that charges a generated electric power of the second power generation device 4 are connected. On the basis of weather forecast information, the outage time zone predicting device outputs an alarm signal indicating a possibility of an electric outage when it is determined that a first total value of a first prediction value indicating a maximum fluctuation amount of the load and a second prediction value indicating the maximum fluctuation amount of the generated electric power of second power generating device in a future time zone exceeds a second total value of a third prediction value indicating an adjusting force of the first power generating device corresponding to the fluctuation of load and the fluctuation of power generation of the second power generation device and a forth prediction value indicating the adjusting force of the first storage battery corresponding to the fluctuation of load and the fluctuation of power generation of second power generation device.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

  The present invention relates to a power failure time zone prediction device, a power failure time zone prediction method, and a program.

  For example, a power system in which a power generation device and a storage battery on the electric power company side, a renewable energy power generation device on the customer side, and a load are connected is known (for example, Patent Document 1).

JP 2011-114945 A

  In recent years, from the viewpoint of protecting the global environment, many renewable energy power generation devices are connected to an electric power system. However, since the renewable energy power generation device has a structure that generates power using natural energy such as wind power and solar power, the power generated by the renewable energy power generation device is accurately caused by the influence of the weather. It is difficult to predict. Therefore, as the number of renewable energy power generation devices connected to the power system increases, the adjustment power (load frequency control) by the power generation devices on the power company side can cope with fluctuations in the power generated by the renewable energy power generation devices. When it disappears, the voltage appearing in the power system and the frequency of the voltage fluctuate, and if these fluctuations exceed a certain range, the power system may cause a power failure. In particular, in the case of an electric power system installed on a remote island, the above problem becomes significant because the power generation capacity and adjustment capacity of the power generation device on the power company side are smaller than those of the electric power system installed on the mainland.

  As an example of measures to solve the above problems, when a storage battery managed by an electric power company is connected to the power system, and the generated power of the renewable energy power generation device becomes surplus due to fluctuations, the surplus power is reduced using the storage battery. It is conceivable to charge the battery and discharge the charging power of the storage battery to the load according to the power supply and demand plan. However, since the installation cost when connecting a storage battery to an electric power system and the management cost which controls charging / discharging of a storage battery are needed, there exists a possibility that the burden on the electric power company side may become large.

  In addition, as an example of measures to solve the above problem, when the fluctuation of the generated power of the renewable energy power generation device is predicted to be larger than a certain level, the operation of a considerable number of the renewable energy power generation devices is stopped in advance. It is possible to make it the state made into. However, there is a possibility that the renewable energy power generation apparatus installed from the viewpoint of protecting the global environment cannot be effectively used.

  Therefore, the present invention outputs a warning signal that can charge the generated power of the power generation device on the power company side in the power failure time zone, for example, using a storage battery on the customer side when a power failure time zone is predicted. An object of the present invention is to provide a power failure time zone prediction device.

  The main present invention for solving the above-mentioned problems is that load frequency control is performed so that the demand and supply of power between the load and the load are balanced, and the first power generator that supplies power to the load, and the renewable energy A power failure time zone prediction device for predicting a power failure time zone of a power system to which a second power generation device that uses and supplies power to the load and a first storage battery that charges the generated power of the second power generation device are connected And a first predicted value indicating a maximum fluctuation range of the load in a future time zone and a second predicted value indicating a maximum fluctuation range of the generated power of the second power generator based on weather forecast information. , A third predicted value indicating the adjustment power of the first power generation device according to the load variation and the power generation power variation of the second power generation device, and the load variation and the power generation power variation of the second power generation device. The first storage battery according to A calculation unit that calculates a fourth prediction value indicating an adjustment force; and a first total value obtained by summing the first prediction value and the second prediction value is the third prediction value and the fourth prediction value. When the determination unit determines whether or not the second total value obtained by summing and the first total value exceeds the second total value, the power system is the time An output unit that outputs a warning signal indicating that there is a possibility of power failure in the belt.

  Other features of the present invention will become apparent from the accompanying drawings and the description of this specification.

  ADVANTAGE OF THE INVENTION According to this invention, it becomes possible to avoid the power failure of the electric power system in the estimated power failure time slot | zone.

It is a figure which shows an example of the electric power grid | system with which the power failure time slot | zone prediction apparatus which concerns on this embodiment is used. It is a figure which shows the structure of the power failure time slot | zone prediction apparatus which concerns on this embodiment. It is a flowchart which shows operation | movement of the power failure time slot | zone prediction apparatus which concerns on this embodiment.

  At least the following matters will become apparent from the description of this specification and the accompanying drawings.

=== Power system ===
FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an example of a power system in which the power failure time zone prediction apparatus according to the present embodiment is used. Hereinafter, the power system will be described with reference to FIG. In the present embodiment, the power system is a relatively small power system installed on a remote island, for example.

  The power system 1 includes a plurality of internal combustion power generation devices 2 (2-1 to 2-n), a storage battery 3, a plurality of renewable energy power generation devices 4 (4-1 to 4-n), and a plurality of loads 5 (5- 1 to 5-n) are connected to the power line 6 and further include a supply and demand control device 7 and a power failure time zone prediction device 8. The internal combustion power generation device 2, the storage battery 3, the supply and demand control device 7, and the power failure time zone prediction device 8 are devices owned and managed by the electric power company. The supply and demand control device 7 and the power failure time zone prediction device 8 are installed in, for example, a power plant that generates power from the internal combustion power generation device 2 or a management center that performs centralized management of the power system 1. On the other hand, the renewable energy power generation device 4 and the load 5 are devices that are owned and managed on the customer side.

  The internal combustion power generation device 2 is a device that performs thermal power generation by rotating the internal combustion engine with chemical energy released by the combustion of fuel, and is configured using a compression ignition engine using a diesel engine, for example. Since the internal combustion power generator 2 has a feature that it can be started in a relatively short time, it is installed in a small-scale thermal power plant on a remote island and is operated efficiently. The internal combustion power generator 2 is composed of, for example, n devices having the same rated output, and is selectively paralleled or disconnected from the power line 6 in accordance with a control command from a supply and demand controller 7 described later. The The parallel internal combustion power generators 2 are started or stopped in accordance with a control command from the supply and demand controller 7, and load frequency control (LFC: LFC) is performed so that the power demand and supply with the load 5 are balanced. Load Frequency Control).

  The renewable energy power generation device 4 is a device that generates power using natural energy such as sunlight, wind power, wave power, tidal power, geothermal heat, and biomass. Here, each of the plurality of renewable energy power generation devices 4 may be a power generation device using the same natural energy, or may be a power generation device using different natural energy. In the present embodiment, the renewable energy power generation device 4 includes a solar power generation device and a wind power generation device for convenience of explanation.

  The storage battery 3 is composed of, for example, a sodium / sulfur battery (NAS battery: registered trademark), and has a capacity capable of charging surplus power of the renewable energy power generation device 4. Sodium-sulfur batteries are rechargeable batteries that use sodium (Na) as the negative electrode, sulfur (S) as the positive electrode, and β-alumina solid electrolyte as the electrolyte that separates both electrodes, and are repeatedly charged and discharged by a chemical reaction of sulfur and sodium ions. is there. The storage battery 3 charges the surplus power of the renewable energy power generation device 4 in accordance with the control command from the supply and demand control device 7 so that the supply and demand of power balances and conforms to the supply and demand plan of the power system 1 or charging power Or is discharged to the load 5.

  The load 5 is a power device that consumes power in a consumer such as a private house, a public facility, or a factory. Power is supplied to the load 5 from any one of the internal combustion power generation device 2, the renewable energy power generation device 4, and the storage battery 3 depending on the situation.

  The supply and demand control device 7 controls parallel and disconnection of the internal combustion power generation device 2 with respect to the power line 6, start and stop of the internal combustion power generation device 2, charging / discharging of the storage battery 3, and power flow of the power system 1.

  The power failure time zone prediction device 8 uses the weather forecast information and past results so that the adjusting power of the internal combustion power generation device 2 and the storage battery 3 cannot cope with the generated power of the renewable energy power generation device 4 and the fluctuation of the load 5. It is predicted for every unit time (for example, 1 hour) whether or not a simple power failure time zone occurs. When it is predicted that the power outage time zone will occur, the power outage time zone prediction device 8 outputs a warning signal indicating that the power system 1 may be out of power in the power outage time zone.

  The power failure time zone prediction device 8 acquires weather forecast information for each unit time, for example, from a weather forecast information server 10 managed by the Japan Meteorological Agency via the communication network 9. The weather forecast information is information in the area where all customer homes that own the load 5 exist, such as the amount of solar radiation, cloud cover, wind speed, wind direction, temperature, humidity, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, etc. per unit time. Contains information.

  The power failure time zone prediction device 8 transmits a warning signal to a customer terminal 11 (for example, a personal computer or a smartphone) owned by the customer via the communication network 9. When the customer terminal 11 receives the warning signal, for example, a message urging attention such as “There is a possibility of power failure at XX month, XX day, XX hour” is displayed on the screen of the customer terminal 11. After confirming the message, the customer performs an operation for reporting the cooperation to the customer terminal 11 when preparing to cooperate with the power company in order to avoid a power failure. When the operation is input to the customer terminal 11, the internal combustion power generator 2 is connected to a storage battery (for example, a storage battery mounted in an electric vehicle) owned by the customer in the power failure time zone prediction device 8 via the communication network 9. A report signal indicating a chargeable time zone and charge amount when charging the generated power is transmitted. The reporting signal includes, for example, the information “○ month ○ date ○ hour to ○ hour ΔkW chargeable”.

=== Configuration of the power failure time zone prediction device ===
FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating the configuration of the power failure time zone prediction apparatus according to the present embodiment. Hereinafter, the power failure time zone prediction apparatus will be described with reference to FIG.

  The power failure time zone prediction device 8 includes functions of a storage unit 8A, a time measuring unit 8B, an input unit 8C, a calculation unit 8D, a determination unit 8E, and an output unit 8F.

  The storage unit 8A stores program data for realizing the function of the power failure time zone prediction device 8. Each function of the input unit 8C, the calculation unit 8D, the determination unit 8E, and the output unit 8F is realized by executing a program read from the storage unit 8A. The storage unit 8A stores information related to the specifications of the internal combustion power generation device 2, the storage battery 3, the renewable energy power generation device 4, and the load 5. In addition, when the renewable energy power generation device 4 is a solar power generation device, the storage unit 8A stores performance information for each unit time including the amount of solar radiation, the amount of clouds, and the maximum fluctuation amount of the generated power, and as past performance It is databased so that it can be searched. Similarly, in the storage unit 8A, when the renewable energy power generation device 4 is a wind power generation device, performance information for each unit time including the wind speed and the maximum fluctuation amount of the generated power is stored, so that it can be retrieved as a past performance. It is made into a database. The storage unit 8A stores performance information for each unit time including the maximum fluctuation amount of the load 5, and is stored in a database so that it can be searched as a past performance.

  The timekeeping unit 8B measures the current time, and the power failure time zone prediction device 8 outputs a warning signal as a trigger for a certain period of time (for example, the time when the power failure time zone prediction device 8 outputs a warning signal as a starting point). The time until reaching the time zone in which the prediction of whether or not a power failure occurs is started.

  The weather forecast information transmitted from the weather forecast information server 10 is input to the input unit 8C via the communication network 9. The weather forecast information server 10 may be configured to send weather forecast information in accordance with a request from the power failure time zone prediction device 8, or to send weather forecast information spontaneously every unit time. It may be configured. Further, a reporting signal transmitted from the customer terminal 11 owned by the customer is input to the input unit 8C via the communication network 9.

  The calculation unit 8D stores weather forecast information input to the input unit 8C, information regarding the specifications of the internal combustion power generation device 2, the storage battery 3, the renewable energy power generation device 4, and the load 5 stored in the storage unit 8A. By selectively referring to the performance information stored in the unit 8A, the predicted value X (MW) indicating the maximum fluctuation amount of the generated power of the renewable energy power generation device 4 and the maximum fluctuation amount of the load 5 are indicated. Prediction value Y (MW), prediction value A (MW) indicating the adjustment force of the internal combustion power generation device 2 according to the fluctuation of the generated power of the renewable energy power generation device 4 and the load 5, and the renewable energy power generation device 4 and a predicted value B (MW) indicating the adjusting power of the storage battery 3 according to the fluctuation of the generated power 4 and the fluctuation of the load 5 are calculated for each unit time. For example, when the current time is between 1 o'clock and 2 o'clock, the calculation unit 8D calculates predicted values X, Y, A, and B in the time zone immediately after 2 o'clock to 3 o'clock.

  The predicted value X can be calculated by performing multiple regression analysis on information such as solar radiation amount, cloud amount, wind speed, wind direction, temperature, humidity, precipitation, and atmospheric pressure included in the weather forecast information. The predicted value X can also be calculated by selecting information similar to the weather forecast information from the performance information. Further, the predicted value Y is calculated by performing multiple regression analysis on information such as temperature, humidity, precipitation, etc. included in the actual maximum load variation, actual load, day of the week (weekdays, holidays), season, and weather forecast information. It is possible. The predicted value Y can also be calculated by selecting information similar to the weather forecast information from the performance information. Further, the predicted values A and B can be calculated based on the planned values of the internal combustion power generation device 2 and the storage battery 3 and the total demand predicted value C of the load 5.

  The number of the internal combustion power generators 2 connected to the power line 6 is increased or decreased so as to satisfy the condition of the following expression 1.

Total value of rated outputs of internal combustion power generation device 2> (total demand prediction value C-predicted value of minimum generated power of renewable energy power generation device 4) (Equation 1)
Further, the predicted value A indicating the adjusting force of the internal combustion power generation apparatus 2 is set so as to satisfy the condition of the following expression 2.

A = total value of rated output of internal combustion power generator 2 × α (Expression 2)
(Α is a coefficient for setting the adjustment force: for example, 5 to 10%)
Accordingly, when the storage battery owned by the consumer is charged with the generated power of the internal combustion power generation device 2, the total demand prediction value C is updated, and the prediction value A is also updated.

  The determination unit 8E determines that the total value X + Y of the predicted value X indicating the maximum fluctuation amount of the generated power of the renewable energy power generation device 4 and the predicted value Y indicating the maximum fluctuation amount of the load 5 is the adjusting force of the internal combustion power generation device 2. It is determined whether or not the total value A + B of the predicted value A indicating the value and the predicted value B indicating the adjusting force of the storage battery 3 is exceeded. When the total value X + Y exceeds the total value A + B, the adjustment power of the internal combustion power generation device 2 and the storage battery 3 is insufficient with respect to the generated power of the renewable energy power generation device 4 and the maximum fluctuation amount of the load 5. Therefore, there is a possibility that the power system 1 may lead to a power failure. Therefore, the determination unit 8E generates a warning signal indicating that the power system 1 may be interrupted during the time period in which the above determination is performed.

  The output unit 8F transmits the warning signal generated by the determination unit 8E to the customer terminal 11 via the communication network 9.

=== Operation of the power failure time zone prediction device ===
FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing the operation of the power failure time zone prediction apparatus according to the present embodiment. The operation of the power failure time zone prediction apparatus shown in FIG. 3 is repeatedly executed every unit time. Hereinafter, the operation of the power failure time zone prediction apparatus will be described with reference to FIGS.

  First, the power failure time zone prediction device 8 acquires weather forecast information in a time zone immediately after the current time from the weather forecast information server 10 as a function of the input unit 8C. The weather forecast information may be transmitted in response to a request from the power failure time zone prediction device 8, or may be transmitted spontaneously every unit time (step S1).

  Next, the power failure time zone prediction device 8 has, as functions of the calculation unit 8D, a predicted value X that indicates the maximum fluctuation amount of the generated power of the renewable energy power generation device 4, and a prediction value Y that indicates the maximum fluctuation amount of the load 5. Then, a predicted value A indicating the adjusting force of the internal combustion power generation device 2 and a predicted value B indicating the adjusting force of the storage battery 3 are calculated (step S2).

  Next, the power failure time zone prediction device 8 determines whether the total value X + Y of the predicted values X and Y exceeds the total value A + B of the predicted values A and B as a function of the determination unit 8E (step S3). . If the total value X + Y does not exceed the total value A + B (step S3: NO), the power system 1 has no fear of power failure, so the power failure time zone prediction device 8 is a step in preparation for a power failure prediction operation in the next time zone. Return to S1. On the other hand, when the total value X + Y exceeds the total value A + B (step S3: YES), the power system 1 may reach a power failure. Therefore, the power failure time zone prediction device 8 uses the power system as a function of the determination unit 8E. 1 generates a warning signal indicating that there is a possibility of power failure (step S4).

  Next, the power failure time zone prediction device 8 transmits a warning signal generated by the determination unit 8E to the customer terminal 11 via the communication network 9 as a function of the output unit 8F (step S5). When the customer terminal 11 receives the warning signal, for example, a message urging attention such as “There is a possibility of power failure at XX month, XX day, XX hour” is displayed on the screen of the customer terminal 11. After confirming the message, the customer performs an operation for reporting the cooperation to the customer terminal 11 when preparing to cooperate with the power company in order to avoid a power failure. When the operation is input, the customer terminal 11 can be charged when charging the power generated by the internal combustion power generation device 2 to the storage battery owned by the customer in the power failure time period prediction device 8 via the communication network 9. A report signal indicating the correct time zone and charge amount is transmitted.

  Next, the power failure time zone prediction device 8 starts measuring the time until reaching the time zone in which it is predicted whether or not a power failure will occur, starting from the output time of the warning signal as a function of the time measuring unit 8B. (Step S6).

  Next, the power failure time zone prediction device 8 functions as a function of the input unit 8C, and a reporting signal transmitted from the customer terminal 11 through the communication network 9 during the period in which the time measuring unit 8B is measuring time in step S6. Starts to be received (step S7). Information included in the report signal input to the input unit 8C is temporarily stored in the storage unit 8A until the total demand forecast value C is updated in step S11 described later.

  Next, as a function of the determination unit 8E, the power failure time zone prediction device 8 determines whether or not the time measured by the time measurement unit 8B in step S6 has reached a time immediately before the time zone in which it is predicted whether or not a power failure will occur. Is determined (step S8). When the time measured by the time measuring unit 8B has not reached the time immediately before the time zone (step S8: NO), the determination operation in step S8 is repeated. On the other hand, when the time measured by the time measuring unit 8B reaches the time immediately before the above time zone (step S8: YES), the power failure time period predicting device 8 ends the time measurement of step S6 as a function of the time measuring unit 8B ( Step S9) As a function of the input unit 8C, the reception of the report signal transmitted from the customer terminal 11 is terminated (Step S10).

  Next, the power failure time zone prediction device 8 refers to the information of the report signal stored in the storage unit 8A as a function of the calculation unit 8D, and the consumer's chargeable power with respect to the current total demand prediction value C The total demand forecast value C is updated (step S11).

  Next, when the total demand prediction value C is updated, the power failure time zone prediction device 8 updates the prediction value A indicating the adjustment force of the internal combustion power generation device 2 according to Equation 1 and Equation 2 (step S2).

  Then, when the power failure is predicted to occur, the power failure time prediction device 8 uses the predicted values X, Y, A, B calculated in step S2 and the predicted value C calculated in step S11 as the supply and demand control device 7. The supply and demand control device 7 is arranged in accordance with the predicted values X, Y, A, B, and C, the parallel and disconnection of the internal combustion power generation device 2 with respect to the power line 6, the start and stop of the internal combustion power generation device 2, and the storage battery. 3 is controlled. In the time zone when a power failure is predicted, the generated power of the internal combustion power generation device 2 is charged to the storage battery on the consumer side, so that an attempt is made to secure the amount of power for charging the storage battery on the consumer side. The number of activated internal combustion power generators 2 increases, and the adjustment power of the internal combustion power generator 2 increases. Therefore, it is possible to avoid a power failure of the power system 1 while the renewable energy power generation device 4 performs a power generation operation.

  As described above, load frequency control is performed so that the demand and supply of power with the load 5 are balanced, and the internal combustion power generator 2 that supplies power to the load 5 and the load using the renewable energy Of a power system 1 to which a renewable energy power generation device 4 (solar power generation device, wind power generation device, etc.) that supplies power to 5 and a storage battery 3 that charges the generated power of the renewable energy power generation device 4 are connected. A power failure time zone prediction device 8 for predicting a power failure time zone, which can be reproduced based on weather forecast information and a predicted value Y indicating the maximum fluctuation amount of the load 5 in a future time zone (for example, one hour unit). Prediction value X indicating the maximum fluctuation amount of the generated power of the energy power generation device 4 and a prediction value indicating the adjustment force of the internal combustion power generation device 2 according to the fluctuation of the load 5 and the fluctuation of the generated power of the renewable energy power generation device 4 The calculation unit 8D for calculating the value A and the predicted value B indicating the adjustment power of the storage battery 3 according to the fluctuation of the load 5 and the fluctuation of the generated power of the renewable energy power generation device 4, and the predicted values X and Y are summed The determination unit 8E determines whether or not the total value X + Y obtained in this way exceeds the total value A + B obtained by summing the predicted values A and B, and the determination unit 8E determines that the total value X + Y exceeds the total value A + B In this case, the power system 1 includes an output unit 8F that outputs a warning signal indicating that there is a possibility of a power failure in the above time zone. According to the present embodiment, even if the power system 1 is relatively small such as installed on a remote island, a power failure of the power system 1 is avoided without stopping the power generation operation of the renewable energy power generation device 4. It becomes possible.

  The warning signal output from the power failure time zone prediction device 8 is transmitted to the customer terminal 11 of the customer who owns the load 5 through the communication network 9.

  Further, the power failure time zone prediction device 8 has an input unit through which a report signal indicating that the storage battery owned by the customer is charged in the above time zone is input through the communication network 9 after the output unit 8F outputs the warning signal. 8C. The internal combustion power generation apparatus 2 includes a plurality of power generation apparatuses, and a plurality of internal combustion power generation apparatuses 2 are activated based on the report signal so that the adjustment force of the internal combustion power generation apparatus 2 in the above-described time zone increases.

  Further, the adjusting force of the internal combustion power generation device 2 is a value obtained by multiplying the total value of the rated outputs of the internal combustion power generation device 2 by a predetermined coefficient α.

  The storage battery on the consumer side is a storage battery mounted on an electric vehicle owned by the consumer.

  In addition, said embodiment is for making an understanding of this invention easy, and is not for limiting and interpreting this invention. The present invention can be changed and improved without departing from the gist thereof, and the present invention includes equivalents thereof. For example, the present invention can also be applied to a power system installed on the mainland that is larger in scale than the power system 1 installed on a remote island.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Electric power system 2 Internal combustion power generation device 3 Storage battery 4 Renewable energy power generation device 5 Load 6 Power line 7 Supply / demand control device 8 Power failure time zone prediction device 8A Storage unit 8B Timing unit 8C Input unit 8D Calculation unit 8E Determination unit 8F Output unit 9 Communication Network 10 Weather forecast information server 11 Consumer terminal

Claims (7)

Load frequency control is performed so that the demand and supply of power between the load and the load are balanced, and a first power generation device that supplies power to the load and a second that supplies power to the load using renewable energy A power failure time zone prediction device for predicting a power failure time zone of a power system to which a power generation device and a first storage battery for charging generated power of the second power generation device are connected,
Based on weather forecast information, a first predicted value indicating the maximum fluctuation amount of the load in a future time zone, a second predicted value indicating the maximum fluctuation amount of the generated power of the second power generation device, and the load A third predicted value indicating an adjustment force of the first power generation device according to the fluctuation and a fluctuation of the power generation power of the second power generation device; and the fluctuation according to the fluctuation of the load and the power generation power of the second power generation device. A calculation unit that calculates a fourth predicted value indicating the adjustment power of the first storage battery;
It is determined whether or not a first total value obtained by summing the first predicted value and the second predicted value exceeds a second total value obtained by summing the third predicted value and the fourth predicted value. A determination unit to perform,
When the determination unit determines that the first total value exceeds the second total value, an output unit that outputs a warning signal indicating that the power system may be out of power in the time zone;
A power failure time zone prediction device characterized by comprising: The power failure time zone prediction device according to claim 1, wherein the warning signal is transmitted to a terminal of a customer who owns the load through a communication network. The first power generation device includes a plurality of power generation devices,
After the output unit outputs the warning signal, an input unit is provided through which the report signal indicating that the second storage battery owned by the consumer is charged in the time zone is input through the communication network,
3. The power failure time zone according to claim 2, wherein a plurality of the first power generation devices are activated based on the report signal so that the adjustment power of the first power generation device increases in the time zone. Prediction device. The power failure time zone prediction device according to claim 3, wherein the adjustment power of the first power generation device is a value obtained by multiplying a total value of rated outputs of the first power generation devices by a predetermined coefficient. The power failure time zone prediction device according to claim 3, wherein the second storage battery is a storage battery mounted on an electric vehicle owned by the consumer. Load frequency control is performed so that the demand and supply of power between the load and the load are balanced, and a first power generation device that supplies power to the load and a second that supplies power to the load using renewable energy A power failure time zone prediction method for predicting a power failure time zone of a power system to which a power generation device and a storage battery that charges the generated power of the second power generation device are connected,
Based on weather forecast information, a first predicted value indicating the maximum fluctuation amount of the load in a future time zone, a second predicted value indicating the maximum fluctuation amount of the generated power of the second power generation device, and the load A third predicted value indicating an adjustment force of the first power generation device according to the fluctuation and a fluctuation of the power generation power of the second power generation device; and the fluctuation according to the fluctuation of the load and the power generation power of the second power generation device. A fourth predicted value indicating the adjustment power of the storage battery,
It is determined whether or not a first total value obtained by summing the first predicted value and the second predicted value exceeds a second total value obtained by summing the third predicted value and the fourth predicted value. And
When it is determined that the first total value exceeds the second total value, a warning signal indicating that there is a possibility that the electric power system may cause a power failure in the time zone is output. . Load frequency control is performed so that the demand and supply of power between the load and the load are balanced, and a first power generation device that supplies power to the load and a second that supplies power to the load using renewable energy A computer used for a power failure time zone prediction device that predicts a power failure time zone of a power system to which a power generation device and a storage battery that charges the generated power of the second power generation device are connected,
Based on weather forecast information, a first predicted value indicating the maximum fluctuation amount of the load in a future time zone, a second predicted value indicating the maximum fluctuation amount of the generated power of the second power generation device, and the load A third predicted value indicating an adjustment force of the first power generation device according to the fluctuation and a fluctuation of the power generation power of the second power generation device; and the fluctuation according to the fluctuation of the load and the power generation power of the second power generation device. A function of calculating a fourth predicted value indicating the adjustment power of the storage battery;
It is determined whether or not a first total value obtained by summing the first predicted value and the second predicted value exceeds a second total value obtained by summing the third predicted value and the fourth predicted value. Function to
When the determination unit determines that the first total value exceeds the second total value, a function of outputting a warning signal indicating that the power system may cause a power failure in the time period;
A program that executes

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