JP2016019197A5

JP2016019197A5 -

Info

Publication number: JP2016019197A5
Application number: JP2014141782A
Authority: JP
Filing date: 2014-07-09
Publication date: 2017-11-16
Anticipated expiration: 2034-07-09

Claims

In a communication traffic prediction device that predicts the amount of communication traffic by a communication terminal,
Traffic characteristic measuring means for measuring traffic characteristics including the number of calls for each unit area obtained by dividing the traffic prediction area according to geography,
Contribution rate calculating means for calculating the contribution rate of the call number variation of each unit area in the terminal number variation of the entire prediction area;
Call number predicting means for predicting the future number of calls for each unit area based on the traffic characteristics;
Terminal demand prediction means for predicting the future terminal demand of the entire prediction area based on the actual value and the schedule of the event that fluctuates the terminal demand;
A communication traffic prediction apparatus comprising correction means for correcting the prediction result of the number of calls based on the contribution rate and the prediction result of terminal demand.

The communication traffic prediction apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising a predicted traffic total amount calculation unit that calculates a predicted traffic total amount based on the corrected number of calls predicted result for each unit area.

Further comprising event schedule registration means for registering the attribute of the scheduled event;
The terminal demand forecasting means is
First prediction means for predicting the first terminal demand by applying the actual value of the terminal demand to the first prediction algorithm;
The second terminal demand triggered by the event based on the terminal demand observed when the event having the same attribute as the scheduled event has been executed in the past is different from the first prediction algorithm. Second prediction means for predicting with a prediction algorithm of 2,
The communication traffic prediction apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising terminal demand calculation means for calculating a future terminal demand based on the first and second terminal demands.

The communication traffic prediction apparatus according to claim 3, wherein the first prediction algorithm is the same as or equivalent to the prediction algorithm of the call number prediction means.

The communication traffic prediction apparatus according to claim 3 or 4, wherein the event attributes include at least one of an event type, an implementation date, an implementation period, and an implementation scale.

6. The communication traffic prediction apparatus according to claim 3, wherein the second prediction means further comprises terminal attribute reflection means for reflecting the terminal dependence of the number of calls in the prediction result.

The said 2nd prediction means was further provided with the geographical attribute reflection means which reflects the geographical dependence of the number of calls in a prediction result, and estimates a terminal demand for every unit area | region. The communication traffic prediction apparatus according to claim 1.

The communication traffic prediction apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the unit area is a mesh area obtained by dividing the prediction area into a mesh shape.

4. The communication traffic prediction apparatus according to claim 3, wherein the terminal demand calculation unit divides the second terminal demand by the first terminal demand.

The second terminal demand is a predicted value based on the event schedule of the communication terminal, or an increase / decrease number of the predicted value or an increase / decrease ratio,
The communication traffic prediction apparatus according to claim 9, wherein the first terminal demand is a time-series actual value of a communication terminal or an increase / decrease number or an increase / decrease ratio of the time-series actual value.

In a communication traffic prediction program for predicting the amount of communication traffic by a communication terminal,
Procedures for measuring traffic characteristics including the number of calls for each unit area obtained by dividing the traffic prediction area according to geography,
A procedure for calculating the contribution rate of the number of calls in each unit area in the number of terminals in the entire prediction area;
A procedure for predicting the future number of calls for each unit area based on the traffic characteristics;
A procedure for predicting the future terminal demand of the entire prediction area based on the actual value and the schedule of the event that fluctuates the terminal demand;
A communication traffic prediction program that causes a computer to execute a procedure of correcting the prediction result of the number of calls based on the contribution rate and the prediction result of terminal demand.