JP2015186411A - User power management system - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a user power management system capable of efficiently performing power supply from a private power generator and a storage battery to a load system, leveling a use amount of commercial power by reducing difference between a maximum value and a minimum value of commercial power consumption, and reducing contract amperage.SOLUTION: A user power management system comprises a power management control unit 3 for setting a commercial power actual use upper limit value, which is an upper limit value of commercial power to be actually used by a user, on the basis of prediction generation power and prediction demand power. The power management control unit 3 sets a commercial power actual use upper limit value in a first time zone, in which the prediction generation power is larger than the prediction demand power, to be lower than a commercial power actual use upper limit value in a second time zone in which the prediction generation power is smaller than the prediction demand power; and controls power supply distribution for demand power in the first time zone so that generation power and battery power are supplied in preference to commercial power for the demand power.

Description

  The present invention relates to a system that requires power supply and manages the power of a consumer who is receiving and using commercial power from an electric power company or the like.

  In recent years, an increasing number of consumers have installed private power generation devices such as solar power generation devices (solar systems) and wind power generation devices that use natural energy. As a system that can obtain economic benefits for such customers, a part of the demand power (also called power consumption or power consumption) of the power system (load system) to which the load is connected, A system is known that covers the power generated by the private power generator and reduces the amount of power supplied from the commercial power system (referred to as commercial power or received power) (see, for example, Patent Document 1 below). Also, a storage battery is provided separately from the in-house power generator, and the storage battery is charged at night when the demand power of the load system becomes small, and discharged in the daytime (daytime), so that the commercial power for daytime demand power can be reduced. A system that reduces the supply amount is also considered.

  In such a system, the “set power” that is the upper limit of the average usage value of commercial power is determined in advance, and when the demand power of the load system is larger than the set power, the difference between the demand power and the set power is calculated. The corresponding power (auxiliary power) is calculated, and the power supplied from the private power generator or storage battery to the load system is determined as “auxiliary power”, so that the commercial power does not exceed the set power. It has been. Here, the “set power” that is the upper limit of the average value of the commercial power can be regarded as the upper limit value of the commercial power that is actually used by the consumer.

JP2013-143866A

  By the way, in the above-mentioned system, the “set power” is always constant regardless of the season and time zone. When such set power is set to a fixed value lower than a predetermined value, for example, the demand power of the load system In the time zone and season when the amount increases (the demand for power increases), the larger the amount of power demanded by the load system exceeds the set power, the greater the amount of power supplied from the private power generator or storage battery. It is also assumed that sufficient power cannot be supplied from the private power generator or storage battery. In order to avoid such a situation of insufficient power supply from the private power generation device or the storage battery, there is no choice but to deal with by setting the set power to a fixed value higher than a predetermined value. Then, the power (received power) from the commercial power system is used until the set power set to a high fixed value is exceeded with respect to the demand power of the load system, effectively reducing the amount of commercial power used. It is difficult to anticipate.

  Furthermore, the above-described system is set so that commercial power is preferentially used with respect to the power demand of the load system, and the power exceeding the set power is supplemented by power supply from the private power generator or storage battery. Therefore, if the set power is set to a fixed value higher than a certain predetermined value, the private power generator and the load power demand power can be used as long as the load power demand does not exceed the set power set relatively high. Even if there is no power supplied from the storage battery and the private power generator or storage battery has a margin of power that can be supplied to the demand power of the load system, the power cannot be actively used, and the storage battery is charged in particular. It can be said that it is a large power loss that the discharged electric power is discharged without being supplied to the load system.

  In addition, the storage battery is quickly depleted when overcharge and overdischarge are repeated, and it has the property of easily deteriorating, such as a decrease in charge capacity, and failure / damage. The above system places an excessive burden on the storage battery. There is also a problem of end.

  Thus, the system described above is a configuration that always uses commercial power preferentially until a set power value that is a fixed value is exceeded in response to an event of a change in power demand of the load system that actually occurs, In order to avoid the situation of insufficient power supply from private power generators and storage batteries at the peak demand of the load system, if the set power is set to a relatively high fixed value, the commercial power that changes with time and season The difference between the peak of usage (peak: usage of commercial power at the peak of power demand) and the valley (bottom: usage of commercial power when power demand is zero or close to zero) increases, and commercial power usage It is extremely difficult to achieve leveling.

  In addition, if the set power is set to a relatively high fixed value in the above-described system, the maximum commercial power used in one day (at the peak time) compared to the case where the set power is set to a relatively low fixed value. Electricity) also increases. Here, a contract is made between the power company that supplies commercial power and the customer regarding the current value of the commercial power supplied from the power company. The lower the contract amperage, the lower the basic charge for electricity bills. . In addition, when a current exceeding the contracted amperage is about to flow into the load system of the customer, for example, an ampere breaker or the like automatically operates and the supply of commercial power is stopped. The “set power” is set to a power value that is naturally lower than the power value corresponding to the contracted amperage. However, a high value of set power means that the maximum amount of commercial power used in a day is also high, and consumers can substantially enjoy the economic benefits of lowering the contract amperage. Difficult to do.

  The present invention has been made paying attention to such a situation, and the main purpose is to efficiently supply power from the private power generator and the storage battery to the load system, and to reduce the maximum and minimum values of commercial power consumption. The purpose is to provide a consumer power management system capable of reducing the difference in values, leveling the amount of commercial power used, and reducing the contract amperage.

  That is, according to the present invention, commercial power, power generated by a private power generator using natural energy, and battery power that is a discharge of a storage battery are obtained with respect to demand power of a load system that is a power system to which a load is connected. The present invention relates to a consumer power management system that can be supplied with appropriate distribution. Here, examples of the private power generation device using natural energy include a solar power generation device, a wind power generation device, a small-scale hydroelectric power generation device, a geothermal power generation device, and the like. The number and combination are not particularly limited. Moreover, the private power generation device applied in the consumer power management system of the present invention only needs to be in an environment where the generated power can be supplied to the demand power of the load system to which the load used by the consumer is connected. Other conditions such as whether or not it is installed in the customer's site and whether or not it is the property of the customer are not particularly limited.

  And the consumer power management system which concerns on this invention is the prediction which can calculate the commercial power actual use upper limit which is the upper limit of the commercial power actually used in a consumer based on the past power generation performance of a private power generation device. A power management control unit that is set based on the generated power and the predicted demand power that can be calculated based on the past demand performance of the demand power is provided, and the time that the predicted generated power is larger than the predicted demand power by the power management control unit. The commercial power actual use upper limit value in the first time zone, which is a belt, is set lower than the commercial power actual use upper limit value in the second time zone, which is a time zone in which the predicted generated power is less than the predicted demand power. The power supply distribution for the demand power is controlled so that the generated power and the battery power are given priority over the commercial power with respect to the actual demand power in the time zone. It is characterized in that.

  Thus, according to the consumer power management system according to the present invention, the predicted generated power of the private power generator and the predicted demand power of the load system are compared, that is, the time zone in which the generated power is greater than the demand power, in other words, For example, the first time zone and the second time zone are the time zone in which the power generation of the private power generation device can be expected and the time zone in which the generated power is larger than the demand power, in other words, the time zone in which the power generation of the private power generation device is not expected much. And the actual power usage upper limit value for the first time zone is set lower than the commercial power actual usage upper limit value for the second time zone, and the generated power and battery power are set to the demand power in the first time zone. By supplying with priority over the commercial power, the amount of commercial power used in the first time zone can be effectively suppressed, and the quotient in the first time zone is compared to the amount of commercial power used in the second time zone. And avoid a situation where the amount of power is significantly increased, it is possible to equalize the commercial power consumption.

  Furthermore, with the consumer power management system according to the present invention, the generated power and the battery power are preferentially supplied to the demand power in the first time zone, and the portion of the generated power and the battery power that are insufficient is commercialized. By controlling the power distribution so that it is supplemented with electric power, it is possible to actively use the electric power charged to the storage battery (battery electric power) without using commercial electric power. It is possible to eliminate the problem, that is, the occurrence of a large power loss in which the power charged in the storage battery is discharged without being supplied to the demand power.

  Further, according to the present invention, it is possible to prevent / suppress deterioration, failure, or damage of the storage battery due to repeated overcharge and overdischarge.

  In particular, the consumer management system according to the present invention sets the actual commercial power use upper limit value in the first time zone and the second time zone that can be determined by comparing the predicted value of generated power and the predicted value of power demand. In the first time zone in which the actual power usage upper limit value is set to be relatively low, the commercial power can be controlled to be used when the generated power and the battery power are insufficient for the power demand. Because it is possible, as long as it is a configuration that always uses commercial power preferentially until a set power value that is a fixed value is exceeded in response to an event of a change in demand power of the load system actually occurring as described above Compare the set power (corresponding to the actual power use upper limit value of the present invention) to avoid the problem that occurs, that is, the situation of insufficient power supply from the private power generator or storage battery at the peak of the power demand of the load system Target If this value is set to a fixed value, the difference between the peak and valley of the amount of commercial power used that changes with time and season can be expanded, and the problem that the level of commercial power usage cannot be leveled can be solved. it can.

  According to the consumer power management system of the present invention, since the level of commercial power consumption can be leveled, the maximum amount of commercial power used in a day can be reduced, which is fundamental to an electric contract. The contract amperage, which is one factor that regulates charges, can be reduced, and consumers can enjoy economic benefits.

  Furthermore, by using the consumer power management system of the present invention that can reduce the maximum amount of commercial power used in a day by a consumer, it is possible to know from experience or prediction that demand power will be particularly high. It can be expected to prevent / suppress the situation where the commercial power supplied from the electric power company is insufficient in a limited time zone and season (winter and summer).

  According to the present invention, the generation power of natural energy and the demand power of the load are respectively predicted, and compared with each other, it is commercialized in a time zone in which a large amount of natural energy generation is expected and a time zone in which a natural energy generation is not expected. By adjusting the upper limit of actual power usage, we plan to actively supply natural energy generated power and storage battery power (discharge) to demand power during times when power generation can be expected. By appropriately allocating the natural energy generated power, storage battery power, and commercial power supply distribution, the difference between the maximum value (peak value) and the minimum value of commercial power usage is reduced and the level of commercial power usage is leveled. It is possible to provide a consumer power management system that can reduce the number of contracted amperes.

1 is an overall configuration diagram of a consumer power management system according to an embodiment of the present invention. The figure which shows the prediction data range in the electric power prediction system of the embodiment. The figure which shows an example of the commercial power actual use upper limit for every time slot | zone by the consumer power management system which concerns on the embodiment. The figure which shows each electric power data at the time of not applying the consumer power management system which concerns on the embodiment. The figure which shows each electric power data at the time of applying the consumer electric power management system which concerns on the embodiment.

  Hereinafter, an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.

  As shown in FIG. 1, the customer power management system X according to the present embodiment uses the power demand of a load system that is a power system to which a load L is connected (hereinafter referred to as “demand power of the load L”). On the other hand, the received power (hereinafter referred to as “commercial power”) that is the power from the commercial power system C, the generated power of the private power generator N using natural energy, and the battery power that is the power (discharge) of the storage battery B Is a system that can be supplied in an appropriate distribution. Examples of the private power generation device N include a solar power generation device, a wind power generation device, and a small-scale hydroelectric power generation device. In this embodiment, the power generated by the private power generation device N and the battery power of the storage battery B are used. In addition, the power is supplied to the demand power of the load system via the common inverter I. The commercial power is supplied to the load L without passing through the inverter I. Moreover, the kind, number, and combination of the private power generation devices N to which the consumer power management system X is applied are not particularly limited. In the following description, the expression “used power” may be used as a synonym for “demand power”. Note that “power consumption” is synonymous with “power consumption”.

  The consumer power management system X of the present embodiment is a commercial power that is actually used by a consumer in an environment where the power generated by the private power generator N, the battery power of the storage battery B, and the commercial power C can be supplied to the load L. The upper limit value of commercial power, which is the upper limit value of C, can be calculated based on the predicted demand power that can be calculated based on the past demand power record (actual power use record) and the past power generation record of the private power generator N Is set based on the predicted power generation. In addition, the consumer in this embodiment assumes the establishment where a weekday is a normal business day (usual day) with much power consumption, and a Saturdays-and-Sundays public holiday is a closed day (holiday).

  In the present embodiment, as shown in FIG. 1, the actual power data stored in the actual power database 11, the actual weather data stored in the actual weather database 12, the weather forecast data available through the Internet network, Is used to create a power prediction formula model, and the predicted power demand and the predicted generated power are calculated by the power prediction unit 2 that performs the power prediction calculation. As shown in FIG. 1, the power record database 11, the weather record database 12, and the power forecast database 13 described later are configured to be managed under the consumer power management system X as a group database 1.

  The power prediction unit 2 includes a prediction formula model creation unit 21 and a prediction calculation unit 22. The prediction formula model creation unit 21 models the relationship between power and climate by time series analysis and multiple regression analysis based on past power consumption, past generated power, and past climate. is there. Further, the prediction calculation unit 22 uses the prediction formula model created by the prediction formula model creation unit 21 to derive future use power and generated power (predicted demand power and predicted generated power) using weather forecast data as a variable. It is. The range of the past data (past used power, past generated power, past climate) used in the power prediction unit 2 of this embodiment is data for the past two weeks, but the period other than the past two weeks It is also possible to set the range of data.

In the present embodiment, the power prediction unit 2 derives a prediction model at 0:00 every day, and calculates predicted demand power and predicted generated power. In addition, the predicted power range of the predicted demand power and the predicted generated power by the power prediction unit 2 can be set to an appropriate range. In the present embodiment, as shown in FIG. The next day of the implementation date is set as the prediction target date, and the prediction power range is set to 24 hours (from 0:00 (excluding 0:00) to 24:00) of the prediction target date. The power predicting unit 2 calculates the predicted power for each hour in the predicted power range, and registers the predicted power that is the calculation result in the power prediction database 13 (see FIG. 1). Therefore, according to the power prediction unit 2 of the present embodiment, 24 predicted power values (predicted power data) can be calculated per day to be predicted and registered in the power prediction database 13.
Examples of weather forecast data used as variables when calculating predicted demand power and predicted generated power in the power prediction unit 2 include temperature, wind speed, and solar radiation. The weather forecast data that can be obtained through the Internet network is data that affects the prediction result by the power prediction unit 2. When the predicted demand power is calculated by the power prediction unit 2, the “load L” that consumes the most power in the consumer is the air conditioner, and the usage frequency of the air conditioner varies depending on the temperature. At least “temperature” is used as weather data.

  Here, the calculation procedure (data flow) of the power prediction formula model is shown in the following formula 1, and the components, parameters, objective variables, and explanatory variables of the power prediction formula model are shown in Table 1, Table 2, and Table 3, respectively. .

  As shown in the above formula 1, in this embodiment, a process called “pre-processing” is executed, and a trend component (one of the components constituting the time series, tends to increase or decrease over time). Is a period pattern (synonymous with time component or periodic component), indicates the level of fluctuation with time, and is one of the components constituting a time series. In the embodiment, as the expansion of the time component, the components for each day of the week are added), and the remaining component provisional values (provisional values of the components that affect the power excluding the trend component and the time component) are past performance data. It is obtained from (actual value), and multiple regression analysis is performed on the remaining component provisional value (an equation for predicting another variable based on several variables is derived and analyzed. Weird It obtains the remaining components running used) as the last than their components, are set so as to obtain the prediction value of the power.

  The power prediction unit 2 of the present embodiment establishes a power prediction formula based on such a power prediction mathematical model based on multivariate analysis, and calculates predicted demand power using temperature as a variable. In addition, the prediction formula model used for calculation of predicted generated power can be established using the same algorithm as the prediction formula model used for calculation of predicted demand power. When calculating the predicted power generation, if the private power generation device N is a solar power generation device, the power generation amount of the private power generation device N greatly depends on the amount of solar radiation. In addition, if the private power generation device N is a wind power generation device or a hydroelectric power generation device, the power generation amount of the private power generation device N greatly depends on the air flow and the rainfall, respectively. It is preferable to use “air volume” and “rainfall” as meteorological data.

  As described above, the power prediction unit 2 uses the power performance data and the weather performance data to determine the power amount trend (trend, pattern) component, the power amount trend component for each time, and the multiple regression analysis component (from the cause and result). The calculation formula (mathematical model) using the obtained component) is created, and the demand power prediction value and the generation power prediction value in a predetermined time unit (in this embodiment, one hour unit) of the prediction target date are calculated from the calculation formula. can do. Such a power prediction unit 2 can be installed as an application in a predetermined information processing apparatus, for example, and the power prediction process can be executed by the application.

  The weather data (weather forecast data, weather results data) used in the power prediction unit 2 may be provided on the Internet free of charge or provided for a fee, either of these, The point to select the weather forecast data to be used by the power forecasting unit 2 from multiple weather data from different sources is whether or not the weather data of the customer's location is provided, and how many meteorological data are provided (Update frequency), whether the weather data has a data form that can be used by the software (if the weather data is not available by the software, input or edit the weather data manually or by appropriate means) Need to be registered in the weather record data base, and there is a possibility that an input error will occur), running costs, etc.

  The consumer power management system X of the present embodiment sets the actual commercial power use upper limit value using the power prediction value obtained by the power prediction unit 2, and therefore the prediction accuracy of the power prediction unit 2 is predetermined. When the allowable range is exceeded, it is also assumed that the commercial power actual use upper limit value set by the power management control unit 33 described later is not an appropriate value.

Therefore, the predicted power value for one year by the above-described power prediction unit 2 was analyzed, and the actual power usage value for one year was compared with the predicted power demand value predicted by the power prediction unit 2 for evaluation. Specifically, in order to evaluate the accuracy of prediction with respect to the actual results, the actual results were set to 100%, and a relative error indicating the ratio of the difference between the prediction and the actual results was calculated. The smaller the relative error (closer to 0%), the smaller the difference between the prediction and the actual result, so it can be said that the prediction accuracy is high. The calculation method is as shown in Equation 2 below.
Relative error (%) = ((actual power use value−demand power prediction value) / actual power use value) × 10

And as evaluation of prediction accuracy, each relative error in the total number of cases which is a population was computed by the calculation method of the following formulas 3.
Ratio of relative error (%) = (total number of relative errors at a certain ratio / population) × 100

  Then, the relative error rate of the predicted power demand value was 80% of the relative error rate within ± 20%, and 90% of the relative error rate within ± 30%. In addition, there were 55 cases (0.6% of the total) where the relative error was extremely large and exceeded 100% (hereinafter referred to as “outlier”). Referring to the data of 10 outliers, it was found that they all occurred during and after the holidays.

  As a result of repeated investigations to identify the factors that lead to such results, the outliers in which the predicted power demand value is higher than the actual power consumption value occur during the holidays, and the predicted power demand value is the actual power consumption. The above two points were clarified, that outliers lower than the value occurred at the end of the consecutive holidays or at the end of the consecutive holidays. For the former, the power consumption forecast uses past performance as a parameter, but since the amount of power used (actual power usage value) is less than usual on holidays, it affects the past power consumption actual value on ordinary days. As a result, it is understood that the amount of power used close to the normal day is predicted even on holidays, and as a result, the actual power consumption value is lower than the predicted power demand value and a large error occurs in the power consumption prediction during consecutive holidays. It was. In the latter case, as in the former case, the power consumption forecast also uses the past performance as a parameter, so the actual power consumption during the consecutive holidays was low, which affected the actual power consumption during the consecutive holidays. As a result, the power usage amount is close to the actual power consumption value during consecutive holidays, and as a result, the actual power consumption value is higher than the predicted power demand value, and there is a large error in the predicted power consumption at the end of consecutive holidays or the end of consecutive holidays. It turns out that it occurs.

  As described above, since the power prediction unit 2 uses the past trend of the actual power consumption as a parameter for prediction, if the tendency of holidays and ordinary days is greatly different, the prediction is greatly deviated accordingly. In this embodiment, by setting “weighting” on consecutive days as a singular day that causes a large error in normal power prediction, this embodiment is set so that it can be predicted with high accuracy using the same prediction formula as a normal day. Specifically, the power use rate (power consumption) is different and the power consumption prediction is likely to be missed. The consecutive holidays and the day after the consecutive holidays are set as singular days, which correspond to the consecutive holidays. A singular day gives a negative weight to the predicted power demand value, and a singular day corresponding to the day after the consecutive holidays gives a positive weight to the predicted power demand value. In addition to the consecutive holidays and the end of consecutive holidays, the days when power consumption is expected to increase (for example, the days of national events such as Christmas and Valentine's Day, the year-end and New Year holidays) are set as singular days and appropriately weighted. You can also do it.

  Furthermore, referring to the 10 outliers with large relative errors, all occurred during the winter holidays and the end of the holidays, and the percentage of relative errors during the winter season (January to March) It was found that the total was about 10% to 20% lower than (summer autumn).

  In this regard, the winter is the coldest year of the year, so the heating usage rate is the highest and the demand power (actual power usage value) is also the highest. It has been found that the difference in the actual values increases and the relative error increases accordingly.

  Therefore, when there is a large difference in the actual power consumption value depending on the season, specifically, the actual power consumption value has an effect on the season in winter when the power consumption for heating is large and the power consumption is higher than in other seasons. Therefore, by introducing a “season trend” that incorporates past season trends (past winter season) as a parameter in the calculation to predict power consumption, the situation in which the difference in actual power consumption values increases depending on the season can be prevented and suppressed. can do.

  By introducing such a “singular day”, or by introducing a “season trend” in addition to a peculiar day, the relative error ratio within ± 20% can be brought close to 90% of the whole. It is possible to perform highly accurate power prediction that can be used by the power management control unit 3.

  The consumer power management system X according to the present embodiment is constructed by using (applying) such a power prediction unit 2, and the demand power prediction value and the generated power prediction value calculated by the power prediction unit 2 are used. In comparison, the commercial power actual use upper limit value is adjusted. That is, the consumer power management system X of the present embodiment includes a power management control unit 3 that adjusts the actual commercial power use upper limit value, and the power management control unit 3 generates predicted generated power (generated power predicted value). The commercial power actual use upper limit value in the first time zone, which is a time zone larger than the predicted demand power (demand power demand forecast value), is used as the commercial power in the second time zone in which the predicted generated power is less than the predicted demand power. The commercial power actual use upper limit value is adjusted so as to be set lower than the actual use upper limit value. In addition, the consumer power management system X according to the present embodiment is configured so that the power management control unit 3 uses a private power generator for the demand power of the load L in the first time zone in which the actual power use upper limit is relatively low. In the second time zone where the generated power of N and the battery power of the storage battery B are supplied with priority over the commercial power C, and the actual commercial power use upper limit is relatively high, the demand power of the load L On the other hand, control is performed so that the commercial power C is supplied with priority over the power generated by the private power generator N and the battery power of the storage battery B. Thus, the power management control unit 3 sets the commercial power actual use upper limit value in the first time zone and the second time zone based on the predicted value by the power prediction unit 2, and the load L uses in each time zone. The power (power supplied to the load L) is controlled. Here, the consumer power management system X of the present embodiment can be regarded as having a controller XC composed of the power management control unit 3 and the power prediction unit 2 described above (see FIG. 1). Note that the storage battery B in the present embodiment is set to be rechargeable by the commercial power C or the power generated by the private power generator N.

  The power management control unit 3 of the present embodiment first refers to predicted generated power and predicted demand power, which are parameters for determining the commercial power actual use upper limit value. In this embodiment, the first time zone is divided into two time zones, daytime and nighttime, the daytime time zone is set as the first time zone, and the night time zone is set as the second time zone. Therefore, the power management control unit 3 refers to the predicted generated power and the predicted demand power twice a day in order to determine the actual commercial power use upper limit value for the daytime and the actual commercial power use upper limit value for the night. It is set.

  Specifically, the power management control unit 3 refers to the power prediction data (demand power predicted value and generated power predicted value) calculated by the power prediction unit 2 and registered in the power prediction database 13, and refers to the demand power Comparing the predicted value and the predicted power generation value to calculate the shortage of future demand power, and if the predicted power demand value is larger than the predicted power generation value, discharge from the storage amount of the storage battery B (remaining battery amount) Power that can be turned to (battery power), and finally, the power generated by adding the battery power of the storage battery B to the predicted generated power (referred to as “added power” for convenience of explanation), and the predicted power demand And the commercial power actual use upper limit value is determined so that the commercial power C is used as much as the additional power is insufficient with respect to the demand power prediction value.

  Here, the commercial power actual use upper limit value in the present embodiment is determined as a value lower than the default commercial power actual use upper limit value according to the surplus power by subtracting the demand power predicted value from the generated power predicted value. Is. More specifically, in the power management control unit 3 of the present embodiment, the total time of the target time zone in which the actual commercial power use upper limit value is set is set as the denominator (divisor of the fraction), and the generated power predicted value at the total time is calculated. The value calculated as the numerator (dividend of the fraction) is the value obtained by subtracting the total demand power forecast value for the same time from the total, and this is set as the “reduced commercial power actual use upper limit value”. The value obtained by subtracting from the default commercial power actual use upper limit value in the corresponding time zone is set to be calculated as the “commercial power actual use upper limit value”. However, when the predicted power generation value is smaller than the predicted power demand value (when the predicted power demand value is subtracted from the predicted power generation value, it becomes negative), the commercial power actual use upper limit value is not changed. It is also possible to set the default commercial power actual use upper limit value in the second time zone in which power generation cannot be expected to be higher than the default commercial power actual use upper limit value in the first time zone.

  In the present embodiment, the calculation / adjustment process of the commercial power actual use upper limit value by the power management control unit 3 is performed in the first time zone (from 9:00 to 17 in the illustrated example) as shown in FIG. 0:00) and the second time zone (17:00 to 9:00). In the figure, the actual commercial power use upper limit value is indicated by a thick solid line. Further, when shifting from the first time zone to the second time zone and when shifting from the second time zone to the first time zone, the commercial power actual use upper limit value adjusted for each time zone is rapidly changed. Since an unintended load (load) acts on the system, switching from the commercial power actual use upper limit value in the first time zone to the commercial power actual use upper limit value in the second time zone, and the commercial power in the second time zone It is set to gradually switch from the actual use upper limit value to the commercial power actual use upper limit value in the first time zone. In addition, since the solar sunshine hours differ from season to season, the first time zone and the second time zone vary depending on the season.

  Moreover, the consumer power management system X of this embodiment can improve the operation efficiency of the storage battery B by control of the electric power management control part 3 using the electric power predicted value acquired by the electric power prediction part 2. FIG. That is, the power management control unit 3 of the present embodiment, when the generated power predicted value is larger than the demand power predicted value, in other words, when the demand power (used power) of the load L is small, the surplus generated power Is stored in the storage battery B. On the other hand, when the predicted generated power is smaller than the predicted demand power, in other words, when the demand power (used power) of the load L is large, the storage battery B is discharged. Is performed for as long as possible, and control is performed so as to reduce the amount of commercial power C used according to the amount of discharge of the storage battery B.

  In the consumer power management system X of the present embodiment, the following control content is adopted as specific control content by the power management control unit 3.

  In the present embodiment, the operation mode of the storage battery B is classified into “normal mode”, “discharge mode”, and “charge mode”, and electric power supplied to the load L (specifically, according to various conditions in each mode) The power supplied to the load L by the inverter I is determined. Here, the operation mode of the storage battery B is basically set to the normal mode, and when the demand power (used power) amount of the load L exceeds the predetermined threshold value in the normal mode, the operation mode is changed to the discharge mode. In addition, the battery power can be supplied to the load L, and when the demand power (used power) amount of the load L falls below a predetermined threshold in the discharge mode, there is a margin in the power supply for the demand power of the load L. Therefore, the discharge mode is canceled to shift to the normal mode, and the state in which the battery power is unconditionally supplied to the load L is canceled.

  On the other hand, when the demand power (used power) amount of the load L is lower than a predetermined threshold value in the normal mode, the storage battery B can be charged by shifting to the charging mode, and the demand power of the load L is in the charging mode. When the amount of (used power) exceeds a predetermined threshold value, the charging of the storage battery B is stopped by shifting to the normal mode so that the battery power can be supplied to the load L. In the present embodiment, the change of the commercial power actual use upper limit value based on the predicted power value acquired by the power prediction unit 2 is set so that the storage battery B is performed in the normal mode.

  In the present embodiment, when the operation mode of the storage battery B is “normal mode”, if the commercial power actual use upper limit is equal to or greater than the demand power of the load L (condition A), the inverter I Is supplied to the demand power of the load L in preference to the generated power, and the generated power is supplied to the demand power of the load L as much as the maximum discharge power is insufficient. When the condition A is satisfied, if the maximum discharge power is larger than the demand power of the load L, all of the demand power of the load L is covered by the battery power (supplying the battery power to the demand power of the load L) and simultaneously generating power The storage battery B is charged with electric power. That is, the storage battery B is in a charge / discharge state.

  Further, when the operation mode of the storage battery B is the “normal mode”, the demand power of the load L is larger than the actual power use upper limit value, and the value obtained by subtracting the commercial power actual use upper limit value from the load L demand power However, if it is larger than the total value of the generated power and the maximum discharge power of the storage battery B, the inverter I supplies the generated power and the maximum discharge power of the storage battery B to the load L. Further, when the operation mode of the storage battery B is the “normal mode”, the demand power of the load L is larger than the actual power use upper limit value, and the value obtained by subtracting the commercial power actual use upper limit value from the load L demand power However, if it is smaller than the total value of the generated power and the maximum discharge power of the storage battery B, the inverter I generates the generated power and the storage battery by the required amount according to the value obtained by subtracting the actual power use upper limit from the demand power of the load L. The maximum discharge power of B is supplied to the load L.

  In the present embodiment, when the operation mode of the storage battery B is “discharge mode”, if the generated power is equal to or higher than the demand power of the load L, the generated power has a margin with respect to the demand power of the load L. The inverter I supplies only the generated power to the load L. Further, when the operation mode of the storage battery B is “discharge mode”, the demand power of the load L is larger than the generated power, and the generated power and the maximum discharge power of the storage battery B (the maximum value of the battery power) are the demands of the load L. If it is smaller than the power, the inverter I supplies the generated power and the maximum discharge power of the storage battery B to the load L. Furthermore, when the operation mode of the storage battery B is the “discharge mode”, if the demand power of the load L is larger than the generated power and the generated power and the maximum discharge power of the storage battery B are equal to or higher than the demand power of the load L, The inverter I supplies the generated power and the maximum discharged power of the storage battery B to the load L according to the demand power of the load L (in other words, as much as the load L requires).

  Thus, in this embodiment, when the operation mode of the storage battery B is the “normal mode”, the battery power is compared with the demand power of the load L according to the amount of the demand power of the load L that exceeds the generated power. On the other hand, when the operation mode of the storage battery B is the “discharge mode”, the control for supplying the discharge power (battery power) of the storage battery B to the demand power of the load L is adopted.

  When the operation mode of the storage battery B is “charging mode”, the storage battery B is charged unconditionally, and the power obtained by subtracting the maximum charging power of the storage battery B from the generated power (that is, a part of the generated power) Inverter I supplies load L.

  In addition, regardless of the operation mode of the storage battery B, if each power of the generated power and the discharge power of the storage battery B or the total value of each power is smaller than the demand power of the load L, the shortage In response, commercial power C is supplied to the load L.

  As the power management control unit 3 of the present embodiment, in addition to or in place of the control according to the operation mode of the storage battery B, or in a range that does not contradict each other, a unit that can execute the following control may be adopted. Is possible. For example, when the charge amount of the storage battery B reaches a predetermined threshold, it is possible to employ the power management control unit 3 that confirms the increase or decrease in the demand power of the load L and determines whether the storage battery B is discharged or charged. If the charge amount of the storage battery B is between the predetermined lower limit value and the upper limit value set as the threshold value, it is set to “medium level”, and if it is lower than the lower limit value of the threshold value, it is set to “small level” and higher than the upper limit value of the threshold value. “Large level”. And the power management control part 3 implements and controls the operation plan of the storage battery B as follows based on the charge amount of the storage battery B and the power predicted value. In addition, when the time when the charge amount of the storage battery B does not reach the predetermined threshold value continues for a predetermined time or more, the operation change of the storage battery B can be set every predetermined time (for example, every hour). Further, the load control in the following description is a control in which the load L is cut off stepwise according to the remaining amount of power stored in the storage battery B when the generated power is insufficient, and the load limit with the lowest load control level 1 This is a load limiting state in which the load control level 3 is the highest.

  When the charge amount of the storage battery B is small, if the demand power is predicted to be greater than or equal to the generated power, if the load control level at that time is 2 or 3, the load control level is lowered by one, and the load control level If is 1, maintain that level. In addition, when the charge amount of the storage battery B is small, if the generated power is predicted to be larger than the demand power, if the load control level at that time is 2 or 3, the charge amount has not reached the threshold value. If the load control level is 1, the charging with generated power is started and the level is maintained.

  When the amount of charge of the storage battery B is predicted to be greater than or equal to the generated power when the charge amount of the storage battery B is medium, if the load control level at that time is 2 or 3, the load control level is lowered by one, and the load control level If 1, the discharge starts even if the charge amount has not reached the threshold value. In addition, when the charge amount of the storage battery B is at a medium level, if the generated power is predicted to be larger than the demand power, if the load control level at that time is 2 or 3, the charge amount has not reached the threshold value. If charging with generated power is started and the load control level is 1, the level is increased by 1 to level 2.

  When the amount of charge of the storage battery B is large, when the demand power is predicted to be greater than or equal to the generated power, if the load control level at that time is 2 or 3, the load control level is lowered by one, and the load control level If 1, the discharge starts even if the charge amount has not reached the threshold value. Further, when the amount of charge of the storage battery B is large, when the generated power is predicted to be larger than the demand power, if the load control level is 3, the level is maintained, and the load control level is 1 or 2. If so, increase the load control level by one or two.

  Moreover, it sets so that the storage battery B may be charged using the commercial power C at night. By adopting such an operation of the storage battery B, the battery power (discharge) is positively used to eliminate the waste of generated power, the battery power and the generated power are used efficiently, and the commercial power is leveled. Can be planned.

  In the following, a test (demonstration experiment) is performed by applying the consumer power management system X according to the present embodiment, and based on the transition of each power data actually obtained through the test, the consumer power management according to the present embodiment. The usefulness of System X is verified.

  When the consumer power management system X of the present embodiment is not applied, as shown in FIG. 4, the commercial power actual use upper limit (indicated by a relatively thick solid line in the figure) is a fixed value (1 in the figure). In order to compensate for fluctuations in the power generated by the private power generator N (natural energy) during the day, especially in the time zone on the left half of the figure corresponding to the first day, It can be understood that the commercial power C is being used. On the second day of the figure, the generated power is larger than the generated power on the first day of the figure, and accordingly, the amount of commercial power used in the daytime is the same as that of the first day. It can be seen from the figure that it is less than the amount of power used.

  On the other hand, when the consumer power management system X of this embodiment is applied, based on the predicted value by the power prediction unit 2, as shown in FIG. , That is, the actual use upper limit value of the commercial power in the first time period in which the predicted generated power (the predicted power generation value) is larger than the predicted demand power (the predicted power demand value) (Indicated by a thick solid line) is lower than the default actual power usage upper limit. In the figure, the default commercial power actual use upper limit value is indicated by a relatively thick broken line. In the case shown in the figure, the power management control unit 3 applies the commercial power actual use upper limit value for the first time zone to the default commercial power actual use upper limit value (the customer power management system X is applied at this demonstration site). The value was changed from 1.5 kW, which is the same value as the fixed value in the case where there is not, to 726 W. The power data shown in FIGS. 4 and 5 are power data on different days, but both are power data on the same season day.

  As can be understood from FIGS. 4 and 5, the customer power management system X is applied in the first time zone in which a large amount of power generation by the private power generation device N can be expected by the power management control unit 3 of the present embodiment. Compared to the case where the actual power use upper limit value is set low, the supply distribution of the generated power of the private power generator N and the battery power (discharge) of the storage battery B to the demand power of the load L can be increased. The amount of commercial power C used can be effectively suppressed. Further, by supplying the battery power (discharge) of the storage battery B to the demand power of the load L according to the amount of use of the commercial power C, the generated power charged in the storage battery B is positively efficient. Can be used well. This is because, in the first time zone shown in FIG. 5, the usage amount of the commercial power C is zero or near zero in the time zone when the demand power of the load L increases, and the remaining battery level of the storage battery B It can be easily grasped by paying attention to these points that are continuously decreasing. In the two days shown in FIG. 5, the supply amount (use amount) of the battery power with respect to the demand power of the load L during the day corresponding to the first time zone is 10 kWh on the first day and 5 kWh on the second day. It was. If the consumer power management system X is not applied, the supply amount of the battery power can be said to be a reduction amount of the commercial power C used in the same time zone.

  Moreover, in the 2nd time slot | zone which cannot anticipate many electric power generation by the private power generation device N, the commercial power actual use upper limit was set higher than the default commercial power actual use upper limit by the power management control part 3 of this embodiment. That is, the commercial power actual use upper limit value in the second time zone is a value set higher than the commercial power actual use upper limit value in the first time zone. In the second time zone in which the commercial power actual use upper limit value is set, the commercial power C is supplied to the demand power of the load L. Further, in the second time zone, the amount of charge of the storage battery B can be increased by using the commercial power C in this time zone (nighttime), which is often set at a low price, for charging the storage battery B. . In addition, in FIG. 5, with the increase in the generated power of the private power generation device N over several hours before and after the time (9:00 in the illustrated example) when the second time zone is switched to the first time zone, the storage battery B The battery level is increasing. This means that the storage battery B is charged with generated power during this time period.

  As described above, by using the consumer power management system X according to the present embodiment, the usage amount of the commercial power C during the day when the power usage amount of the load L (the power demand of the load L) increases during the day. The level of commercial power C can be leveled. Furthermore, since the commercial power C is leveled, the maximum used power of the commercial power C in one day is also reduced. Along with this, the “contract amperage” of the basic charge of the electric contract can be lowered.

  From the above results, by applying the consumer power management system X according to the present embodiment, it is possible to equalize the daily commercial power and to further reduce the contract amperage of the basic charge of the electric contract. Turned out to be possible.

  In this demonstration experiment (test) in which the power data shown in FIG. 5 is obtained, the time during which the commercial power actual use upper limit value in the second time zone is determined and the time during which the power generation by the private power generator N can hardly be performed. Overlap, when the commercial power actual use upper limit value increases from the commercial power actual use upper limit value in the second time zone to the commercial power actual use upper limit value in the first time zone, the commercial power C exceeds the commercial power actual use upper limit value. It has been. For this reason, it is considered necessary to provide a margin for setting the actual commercial power use upper limit value. Although there are such problems, it can be said that the utility and practicality of the consumer power management system X that exhibits the above-described effects are high.

  Thus, according to the consumer power management system X according to the present embodiment, the predicted generated power of the private power generation device N and the predicted demand power of the load L are compared, and the time period when the generated power is greater than the demand power. In other words, the first time zone is a time zone in which a large amount of power can be generated by the private power generator N and a time zone in which the generated power is larger than the demand power, in other words, a time zone in which the power generation of the private power generator N is not expected much. And distinguishing it as the second time zone, setting the commercial power actual use upper limit value in the first time zone to be lower than the commercial power actual use upper limit value in the second time zone, and for the demand power of the load L in the first time zone Thus, by supplying the generated power and the battery power with priority over the commercial power C, the usage amount of the commercial power C in the first time zone can be effectively suppressed, and the commercial power C in the second time zone can be reduced. Vs usage The amount of the commercial power C in the first time zone is to avoid a situation that greatly increases Te, it is possible to equalize the commercial power C.

  Furthermore, in the case of the consumer power management system X according to the present embodiment, the generated power and battery power are preferentially supplied with respect to the demand power in the first time zone, and the generated power and battery power are insufficient. By controlling the power distribution so that the commercial power C is supplemented by the commercial power C, the power (battery power) charged in the storage battery B can be positively and efficiently utilized without using the commercial power C. If there is a problem, that is, the occurrence of a large power loss in which the power charged in the storage battery B is discharged without being supplied to the demand power can be eliminated. Furthermore, it is possible to prevent premature wear or failure due to overcharge or overdischarge of the storage battery B.

  In particular, the consumer management system according to the present embodiment has a commercial power actual use upper limit value in the first time zone and the second time zone that can be determined by comparing the predicted value of generated power and the predicted value of power demand. In the first time zone in which a relatively low commercial power actual use upper limit value is set, control is performed so that the commercial power C is used when the generated power and the battery power are insufficient to meet the power demand. As described above, the configuration in which commercial power C is always used preferentially until a set power value that is a fixed value is exceeded in response to an event of a change in demand power of the load system actually occurring as described above. If there is a problem, that is, in order to avoid a situation where the power supply from the private power generator N or the storage battery B is insufficient at the peak of the power demand of the load system, the set power (corresponding to the actual power use upper limit value of the present invention) To do ) Is set to a relatively high fixed value, the difference between the maximum value and the minimum value of the amount of commercial power C that varies with time and season cannot be expanded, and the level of commercial power usage cannot be leveled. This problem can be solved.

  And according to the consumer power management system X of this embodiment, since the level of commercial power consumption can be leveled, it becomes possible to reduce the maximum usage of commercial power C in one day. The contract amperage, which is one factor that regulates the basic fee for the contract, can be reduced, and consumers can enjoy economic benefits.

  Furthermore, it is empirically or predicted that the demand power will be particularly increased by adopting the consumer power management system X of the present embodiment that can reduce the maximum amount of commercial power C used by the customer in one day. It can be expected to prevent / suppress the situation where the commercial power supplied from the power company is insufficient in the time zone and season (winter and summer) that can be grasped above.

  In addition, this invention is not limited to embodiment mentioned above. For example, the number, type, and combination of each load and storage battery may be different or the same for each consumer to which the consumer power management system of the present invention is applied.

  It is also possible to distinguish a finer time zone (small time zone) in the first time zone and set the commercial power actual use upper limit value in each time zone based on the predicted generated power and the predicted demand power. is there. Similarly, it is also possible to distinguish a finer time zone (small time zone) in the second time zone and set the commercial power actual use upper limit value in each time zone based on the predicted generated power and the predicted demand power It is. Note that all commercial power actual use upper limit values set in the small time zone distinguished in the first time zone are all commercial power actual use upper limit values set in the small time zone distinguished in the second time zone. Lower than that.

  In addition, the consumer to which the consumer power management system of the present invention is applied is not limited to an establishment, and may be various facilities (for example, hospitals, welfare facilities, libraries, exercise facilities), ordinary households, etc. It may be a customer whose power demand does not differ greatly between normal days and holidays, or a customer whose daily power demand has been averaged to some extent (such as factories and stores that operate at night). . Further, it may be a consumer whose demand power is greatly different not in the date / time unit but in the season unit or year unit.

  The method for predicting generated power and demand power is also not limited to the above-described power prediction method. For example, each power using only the trend component and the time component without using multiple regression analysis using weather data as a variable. Can also be predicted. In this case, although the prediction accuracy is inferior to the case where multiple regression analysis is used, if the accuracy is increased by appropriate processing, it can be a prediction value that can be suitably used in the power management control unit.

  The generated power predicted value and the demand power predicted value may be predicted values other than one hour (for example, 30 minutes or two hours).

  For weather data (meteorological forecast data, weather performance data) used in power prediction, the weather data provided by the weather data provider is temporarily received by a weather information server provided above the consumer, and the weather information The server can also be configured to provide weather data for each consumer.

  In addition, the specific configuration of each part is not limited to the above embodiment, and various modifications can be made without departing from the spirit of the present invention.

3 ... Power management control unit B ... Storage battery C ... Commercial power L ... Load N ... Private power generator X ... Consumer power management system

Claims (1)

Supply power to the demand power of the load system, which is the power system to which the load is connected, with appropriate distribution of commercial power, power generated by private power generators using natural energy, and battery power that is the discharge of storage batteries A possible consumer power management system,
The predicted generated power that can be calculated based on the past power generation performance of the private power generator, and the actual demand history of the demand power, which is the upper limit value of the commercial power that is actually used by the consumer. A power management control unit that is set based on the predicted demand power that can be calculated based on
The power management control unit uses the commercial power actual use upper limit value in the first time zone in which the predicted generated power is greater than the predicted demand power, and the predicted generated power is less than the predicted demand power. Set lower than the actual use upper limit value of the commercial power in the second time zone, which is a zone, and prioritizes the generated power and the battery power over the commercial power over the actual demand power in the first time zone. The customer power management system is characterized in that the power supply distribution for the demand power is controlled so as to be supplied.

Images