JP2015090552A - Price determination device, price determination support device, price determination program, price determination support program, and price determination method - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To determine an appropriate transaction price that brings about a necessary demand change without forcing a user to bear an excessive load.SOLUTION: The price determination device determines a transaction price in a transaction object for which a demand changes according to a price, and includes: a change prediction part for predicting a total demand change which is a total sum of the demand change for each user according to the price change based on a price elasticity model indicating the demand change according to the price change for each user; and a necessary price change calculation part for calculating the price change necessary for bringing about the necessary demand change based on a prediction result of the change prediction part. The price elasticity model has a border price of the price change and a limit value of the demand change for each user, and the more the price change increases, the more the demand change reduces or the more the price change reduces, the more the demand change increases until the demand change reaches the limit value from 0, and the demand change becomes constant at the limit value.

Description

  The present invention relates to a price determination device, a price determination support device, a price determination program, a price determination support program, and a price determination method.

  In recent years, wind power generators using natural energy such as wind power and solar power, and distributed power sources such as solar cells have been spreading, and the interconnection to commercial power systems is increasing. However, since the output of a distributed power source using natural energy fluctuates according to natural conditions such as wind speed and weather, it is difficult to maintain a stable power supply-demand balance as the number of connections to the power system increases. It becomes.

  As a method for maintaining a balance between supply and demand when the supply of power is tight, demand response that suppresses the demand of consumers by setting power prices and providing incentives is known, and a demonstration experiment is underway. In the former price-type demand response, it is important to determine an appropriate power price for the power demand to be suppressed. In the latter incentive-type demand response, an appropriate incentive is determined for the power demand to be suppressed. It is important to. As a method for determining the power price, for example, Patent Document 1 discloses a power trading system that determines the power price using time-series data and price data of power products traded in the power market.

  By the way, a technique for optimizing a system by expressing a problem such as system control by a first-order predicate logical expression and solving it is known (see, for example, Non-Patent Document 1). Specifically, in a logical expression in which polynomial equations and inequalities are combined with a combination symbol such as logical product (∧) or logical sum (∨), a generic symbol (∀) that is collectively referred to as a quantifier for some variables And the existence symbol (∃) are added to obtain a first order predicate logical expression. Then, the system is optimized by deleting the variable (bound variable) with the quantifier in the first-order predicate logical expression and deriving the logical expression that other variables (free variables) should satisfy. For example, Patent Document 2 discloses a control system analysis / design apparatus that converts a control system to a first order predicate logical expression and analyzes the control system from an expression in which a variable with a quantifier in the first order predicate logical expression is deleted. ing.

JP 2006-99432 A JP 11-328239 A

Hirokazu Anai and Kazuhiro Yokoyama, “QE Calculation Algorithms and Their Applications Optimization by Formula Processing”, The University of Tokyo Press, August 2011, p.214-221

  Price-type demand response that changes the electricity demand of consumers by changing the electricity price is based on the basic law in microeconomics that the demand decreases as the price increases and the demand increases as the price decreases. . Moreover, also in the electric power transaction system of the said patent document 1, the electric power price is determined based on this basic law.

  However, in business activities such as office buildings and factories, there are devices and facilities that cannot be stopped during operation, and there is electric power that must be secured at a minimum for these. This is particularly noticeable in infrastructure facilities such as hospitals and water and sewage systems. Therefore, even if the power price is raised more than necessary, not only does the power demand decrease, but it imposes an excessive burden on the consumer and causes a social loss.

  In addition, the price elasticity of power demand, that is, the rate of change in power demand with respect to the rate of change in power price varies from customer to customer. Furthermore, even for the same customer, the price elasticity can change within a certain range depending on the circumstances such as busy season and quiet season.

  The main present invention that solves the above-described problem is a price determination device that determines a transaction price in a transaction target whose demand changes according to the price, and price elasticity that represents a change in demand according to the price change for each consumer. Based on the model, a change prediction unit that predicts a total demand change that is the sum of the demand changes for each of the consumers according to the price change, and the required change in demand based on the prediction result of the change prediction unit A required price change calculation unit for calculating the price change necessary to bring about the price change, and the price elasticity model has a boundary value of the price change and a limit value of the demand change for each of the consumers. Until the demand change reaches the limit value from 0, the demand change decreases as the price change increases, or the demand change increases as the price change decreases. A pricing apparatus characterized by constant at the limit value.

  The other main present invention that solves the above-described problem is a price determination support device that supports the determination of a transaction price in a transaction target whose demand changes according to the price, and that responds to the price change for each consumer. Based on a price elasticity model representing demand change, based on the prediction result of the change prediction unit that predicts the total demand change that is the sum of the demand changes for each customer according to the price change, and the change prediction unit And a display unit that displays a graph showing a relationship between the price change and the total demand change, and the price elasticity model is a boundary value of the price change and the demand change for each consumer. Until the demand change reaches the limit value from 0, the demand change decreases as the price change increases, or the demand change increases as the price change decreases. Change the price determination assisting device, wherein a constant at the limit value.

  Other features of the present invention will become apparent from the accompanying drawings and the description of this specification.

  According to the present invention, it is possible to determine an appropriate transaction price that causes a necessary change in demand without imposing an excessive burden on the consumer.

It is a block diagram which shows the structure of the price determination apparatus in one Embodiment of this invention. It is a block diagram which shows the structure of the price determination apparatus constructed | assembled on the computer system. It is a schematic diagram explaining the relationship of price P, price change dP, demand E, and demand change dE. It is a figure which shows an example of the price elasticity model in which price change boundary value dPL and demand change limit value dEL are being fixed. It is a figure which shows an example of the price elasticity model by which the price change boundary value dPL is fixed and the demand change limit value dEL is shown in the range which has the upper limit value UEL and the lower limit value LEL. It is a figure which shows an example of the price elasticity model by which the price change boundary value dPL is shown in the range which has the upper limit value UPL and the lower limit LPL, and the demand change limit value dEL is fixed. The figure which shows an example of the price elasticity model in which price change boundary value dPL is shown in the range which has upper limit value UPL and lower limit LPL, and demand change limit value dEL is shown in the range which has upper limit UEL and lower limit LEL It is. FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating the operation of a parameter setting unit 1021. FIG. 10 is a diagram for explaining the operation of a mathematical formula group generation unit 1022; It is a figure explaining operation | movement of the first order predicate logic formula production | generation part. It is a figure explaining the operation | movement of the limited symbol elimination part 1024. FIG. It is a figure explaining operation | movement of the required price change calculation part 103. FIG. It is a figure explaining other operation | movement of the parameter setting part 1021. FIG. FIG. 12 is a diagram for explaining another operation of the mathematical expression group generation unit 1022; It is a figure explaining other operation | movement of the first order predicate logic formula production | generation part 1023. FIG. It is a figure explaining other operation | movement of the required price change calculation part. It is a block diagram which shows the structure of the price determination assistance apparatus in one Embodiment of this invention. It is a block diagram which shows the structure of the price determination assistance apparatus constructed | assembled on the computer system.

  At least the following matters will become apparent from the description of this specification and the accompanying drawings.

=== Configuration of Price Determination Device ===
Hereinafter, with reference to FIG. 1 and FIG. 2, the structure of the price determination apparatus in one Embodiment of this invention is demonstrated.

  Here, first, the relationship among the price, price change, demand, and demand change used in the following description is shown in FIG. The price change dP is a change from the current value P0 of the price P, and dP = P−P0. On the other hand, the demand change dE is a change from the current value E0 of the demand E, and dE = E−E0.

  The price determination apparatus 1 shown in FIG. 1 is an apparatus for determining a transaction price of a transaction target. As an example, the price determination apparatus 1 determines an appropriate power price for the power demand to be suppressed and raises the power price. It is used for price-type demand response that reduces power demand. The price determination device 1 includes a model generation unit 101, a change prediction unit 102, a necessary price change calculation unit 103, a price change database 108a, and a demand change database 108b.

  The price change database 108a stores a history of past price changes (power price changes) as a price change history. On the other hand, in the demand change database 108b, a history of past demand changes (changes in power demand) for each customer is stored as a demand change history. The model generation unit 101 receives a price change history and a demand change history, and the model generation unit 101 outputs a price elasticity model.

  The change prediction unit 102 includes a parameter setting unit 1021, a formula group generation unit 1022, a first-order predicate logical expression generation unit 1023, and a quantifier elimination unit 1024. A price elasticity model is input to the parameter setting unit 1021, and the parameter setting unit 1021 outputs a demand change limit value and a price change limit value. Further, the demand change limit value and the price change limit value are input to the formula group generation unit 1022, and the formula group generation unit 1022 outputs the formula group. Further, the first-order predicate logical expression generation unit 1023 receives an expression group, and the first-order predicate logical expression generation unit 1023 outputs the first-order predicate logical expression. Then, the first-order predicate logical expression is input to the quantifier elimination unit 1024, and the quantifier elimination unit 1024 outputs a change prediction logical expression.

  The required price change calculation unit 103 receives a change prediction logical expression from the limit symbol elimination unit 1024 of the change prediction unit 102 and a required demand change from the outside. Then, the required price change calculation unit 103 outputs the required price change. The required price change is stored in the price change database 108a.

  The price determination apparatus 1 shown in FIG. 1 can be constructed on a computer system as shown in FIG. The price determination apparatus 1 shown in FIG. 2 includes a model generation unit 101, a change prediction unit 102, a required price change calculation unit 103, an input unit 106, an output unit 107, and a storage connected to each other via a bus 109. The apparatus 108 is comprised. The function of the price determination device 1 can be realized by the computer 100 including the input unit 106, the output unit 107, the storage unit 108, and the bus 109. The storage unit 108 stores databases corresponding to the price change database 108a and the demand change database 108b in FIG.

=== Operation of Price Determination Device ===
Hereinafter, the operation of the price determination apparatus according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIGS. 4 to 12 as appropriate.

  Determination of the transaction price by the price determination device 1 includes model generation processing by the model generation unit 101, change prediction processing by the change prediction unit 102, and necessary price change calculation processing by the required price change calculation unit 103. As described above, the function of the price determination device 1 can be realized by the computer 100. For example, by causing the computer 100 to execute a price determination program, a model generation process, a change prediction process, and a necessary price change calculation process can be executed.

  In the model generation process, based on the price change history and the demand change history, a price elasticity model representing a demand change corresponding to the price change is generated for each customer. The price elasticity model has a limit value of demand change, and the demand change decreases as the price change increases until the demand change reaches the limit value from 0, and the demand change becomes constant at the limit value. Here, examples of the price elasticity model used in the price determination device 1 of the present embodiment are shown in FIGS.

  In the price elasticity model A shown in FIG. 4, the demand change dE is proportional to the price change dP and the demand change dE is constant at the limit value dEL until the demand change dE reaches the limit value dEL from 0. In the price elasticity model A, the price change boundary value dPL and the demand change limit value dEL are fixed and constant. On the other hand, in the price elasticity model shown in FIGS. 5 to 7, the price change boundary value dPL and the demand change limit value are taken into consideration that the price elasticity can change within a certain range depending on the situation at that time. dEL has a certain width.

  In the price elasticity model B shown in FIG. 5, the price change boundary value dPL is fixed, and the demand change limit value dEL is shown in a range having an upper limit value UEL and a lower limit value LEL. Further, in the price elasticity model C shown in FIG. 6, the price change boundary value dPL is shown in a range having the upper limit value UPL and the lower limit value LPL, and the demand change limit value dEL is fixed. Further, in the price elasticity model D shown in FIG. 7, the price change boundary value dPL is shown in a range having an upper limit value UPL and a lower limit value LPL, and the demand change limit value dEL is in a range having an upper limit value UEL and a lower limit value LEL. It is shown.

  In the change prediction process, based on the price elasticity model for each consumer, the total demand change corresponding to the price change (the sum of the demand changes for each consumer) is predicted. The change prediction processing includes parameter setting processing by the parameter setting unit 1021, formula group generation processing by the formula group generation unit 1022, first-order predicate logical formula generation processing by the first-order predicate logical formula generation unit 1023, and limitation by the quantifier elimination unit 1024. It consists of symbol erasure processing.

  In the parameter setting process, the price change and demand change parameters are extracted from the price elasticity model for each consumer and set. Here, as shown in FIG. 8, if all the price elasticity models i of the customer i (i = 1, 2,..., N) are the price elasticity models B shown in FIG. The change boundary value, the upper limit value and the lower limit value of the demand change limit value are set as parameters. An example of setting these parameters is shown in the short broken line area of FIG. In this example, the price change boundary value dPLi, the upper limit value UELi and the lower limit value LELi of the demand change limit value dELi are set for each customer i (1 ≦ i ≦ n = 4).

  In the formula group generation process, as shown in FIG. 9, the first formula Obj, the second formula RstAi, and the third formula RstBi are generated based on the parameters extracted and set from each price elasticity model i. .

これは、総需要変化ｄＥｔが各需要変化ｄＥｉの総和であることを示している。ここで、図８に示したパラメータの設定例に基づく第１の数式Ｏｂｊの例を図９の短破線領域内に示す。 The first mathematical expression Obj is an equation indicating the relationship between the demand change for each customer and the total demand change, and corresponds to an objective function. Here, if the demand change of the customer i is dEi and the total demand change is dEt, the first mathematical formula Obj is expressed as the following formula (1).

This indicates that the total demand change dEt is the sum of the demand changes dEi. Here, an example of the first mathematical expression Obj based on the parameter setting example shown in FIG. 8 is shown in the short broken line region of FIG.

なお、「⇒」は含意（implication）を表す記号であり、「Ａ⇒Ｂ」は「ＡならばＢ」を意味する。ここで、図８に示したパラメータの設定例に基づく第２の数式ＲｓｔＡｉの例を図９の短破線領域内に示す。 The second mathematical formula RstAi is an equation that represents a demand change corresponding to a price change for each customer, and corresponds to a constraint condition for each demand change dEi. As described above, since the demand change dEi is proportional to the price change dP from 0 to the limit value dELi, dEi · dPLi = dP · dELi. Further, since the demand change dEi becomes constant at the limit value dELi, dEi = dELi. In summary, the second mathematical formula RstAi is expressed as the following formula (2).

“⇒” is a symbol representing implication, and “A⇒B” means “B if A”. Here, an example of the second numerical formula RstAi based on the parameter setting example shown in FIG. 8 is shown in the short broken line region of FIG.

ここで、図８に示したパラメータの設定例に基づく第３の数式ＲｓｔＢｉの例を図９の短破線領域内に示す。 The third mathematical formula RstBi is an inequality that represents the constraint condition of the demand change limit value for each customer, and in the price elasticity model B, the demand change limit value dELi is indicated in a range having the upper limit value UELi and the lower limit value LELi. Derived from. Therefore, the third equation RstBi is expressed as the following equation (3).

Here, an example of the third mathematical formula RstBi based on the parameter setting example shown in FIG. 8 is shown in the short broken line region of FIG.

なお、一階述語論理式ψにおける存在記号（∃）が付いた変数の順序は、論理的意味を変えない限りにおいて変更可能である。例えば、以下の式（５）のように、明示的に順序を固定しても構わない。

ここで、図９に示した第１の数式Ｏｂｊ、第２の数式ＲｓｔＡｉ、および第３の数式ＲｓｔＢｉの例に基づく式（５）による一階述語論理式ψの例を図１０の短破線領域内に示す。 In the first-order predicate logical expression generation process, a logical product of the first mathematical expression Obj, the second mathematical expression RstAi, and the third mathematical expression RstBi is obtained, and a quantifier is attached to variables other than the price change dP and the total demand change dEt. A first order predicate logical expression ψ is generated. Specifically, as shown in FIG. 10, first, the first to third mathematical expressions are combined with a combination symbol (∧), and logical product (Obj∧RstA1∧RstA2∧ ... ∧RstAn∧RstB1∧RstB2∧ ...). (RstBn) is obtained. Next, in the logical product, a first-order predicate logic represented by the following equation (4) is added to the variables dE1, dE2,..., DEn, dEL1, dEL2,. The expression ψ is obtained.

Note that the order of variables with the presence symbol (存在) in the first-order predicate logical expression ψ can be changed as long as the logical meaning is not changed. For example, the order may be explicitly fixed as in the following formula (5).

Here, an example of the first order predicate logical expression ψ by the expression (5) based on the example of the first expression Obj, the second expression RstAi, and the third expression RstBi shown in FIG. Shown in

  In the quantifier elimination process, the variable with the existence symbol (∃) in the first-order predicate logical expression ψ is erased, and a change prediction logical expression that is logically equivalent is generated. Specifically, as shown in FIG. 11, a change prediction logical expression φ (dP, dEt) indicating the relationship between the price change dP and the total demand change dEt is generated. Note that a known algorithm such as a QE (Quantifier Elimination) algorithm of Non-Patent Document 1 can be used for the quantifier elimination process. Here, an example (part of) of the change prediction logical expression φ (dP, dEt) based on the example of the first order predicate logical expression ψ shown in FIG. 10 is shown in the short broken line region of FIG.

  In this way, the change prediction logic for predicting the total demand change dEt according to the price change dP by the change prediction process including the parameter setting process, the formula group generation process, the first-order predicate logic expression generation process, and the limit symbol elimination process. The expression φ (dP, dEt) is obtained.

  In the necessary price change calculation process, a price change (power price to be increased) necessary to bring about a necessary demand change (power demand to be suppressed) is calculated based on the change prediction logical expression φ (dP, dEt). Specifically, in the change prediction logical formula φ (dP, dEt), the required demand change is substituted as the total demand change dEt, and the price change dP satisfying the change prediction logical formula φ (dP, dEt) is calculated as the required price change. To do.

  Here, based on the example of the change prediction logical expression φ (dP, dEt) shown in FIG. 11, the change prediction logical expression φ () in the orthogonal coordinate system having the price change dP as the horizontal axis and the total demand change dEt as the vertical axis. A region satisfying dP, dEt) is plotted as shown in FIG. As an example, if the total demand change dEt = −7 kWh, the price change dP that satisfies the change prediction logical expression φ (dP, dEt) is in the range from about ¥ 18.4 to ¥ 30. That is, in this example, when it is desired to suppress the power demand by 7 kWh from the current level, it is necessary to increase the power price by ¥ 18.4 to ¥ 30 from the current level. The required price change may be obtained as a range in this way, or may be obtained as one value (average value, maximum value, minimum value, etc.) included in this range.

  In this way, the price determination apparatus 1 according to the present embodiment generates the change prediction logical expression φ (dP, dEt) based on each price elasticity model i, and generates the change prediction logical expression φ (dP, dEt). Based on this, the necessary price change with respect to the inputted necessary demand change is output. This makes it possible to determine an appropriate transaction price that brings about a necessary change in demand. Further, by using a price elasticity model having a price change boundary value dPL and a demand change limit value dEL, for example, an appropriate power can be obtained without imposing an excessive burden on a consumer having a power that must be secured at a minimum. The price can be determined.

=== Other Operations of Change Prediction Unit ===
Hereinafter, the operation of the change predicting unit 102 when the price elasticity model C shown in FIG. 6 is used as each price elasticity model i will be described with reference to FIGS. 13 to 16 as appropriate.

  In this case, in the parameter setting process by the parameter setting unit 1021, as shown in FIG. 13, the upper limit value and lower limit value of the price change boundary value and the demand change limit value are set as parameters. An example of setting these parameters is shown in the short broken line area of FIG. In this example, the upper limit value UPLi and lower limit value LPLi of the price change boundary value dPLi and the demand change limit value dELi are set for each customer i (1 ≦ i ≦ n = 4).

ここで、図１３に示したパラメータの設定例に基づく第１の数式Ｏｂｊ、第２の数式ＲｓｔＡｉ、および第４の数式ＲｓｔＣｉの例を図１４の短破線領域内に示す。 In the formula group generation process by the formula group generation unit 1022, as shown in FIG. 14, the first formula Obj and the second formula RstAi are generated, and the fourth formula RstCi is replaced with the third formula RstBi. Generate. The fourth mathematical formula RstCi is an inequality that represents the constraint condition of the price change boundary value for each consumer, and the price elasticity boundary value dPLi in the price elasticity model C is shown in a range having the upper limit value UPLi and the lower limit value LPLi. Derived from. Therefore, the fourth mathematical formula RstCi is expressed as the following formula (6).

Here, examples of the first mathematical formula Obj, the second mathematical formula RstAi, and the fourth mathematical formula RstCi based on the parameter setting example shown in FIG. 13 are shown in the short broken line region of FIG.

なお、例えば、以下の式（８）のように、一階述語論理式ψにおける存在記号（∃）が付いた変数の順序を明示的に固定しても構わない。

ここで、図１４に示した第１の数式Ｏｂｊ、第２の数式ＲｓｔＡｉ、および第４の数式ＲｓｔＣｉの例に基づく式（８）による一階述語論理式ψの例を図１５の短破線領域内に示す。 In the first-order predicate logical expression generation processing by the first-order predicate logical expression generation unit 1023, the logical product of the first mathematical expression Obj, the second mathematical expression RstAi, and the fourth mathematical expression RstCi is calculated, and the price change dP and the total demand change dEt A first order predicate logical expression ψ is generated with a quantifier added to variables other than Specifically, as shown in FIG. 15, first, the first, second, and fourth mathematical expressions are combined with a combination symbol (、), and a logical product (Obj∧RstA1∧RstA2∧ ... ∧RstAn∧RstC1). ∧RstC2∧ ... ∧RstCn) is obtained. Next, in the logical product, existence symbols (∃) are added to the variables dE1, dE2,..., DEn, dPL1, dPL2,. The expression ψ is obtained.

Note that, for example, as shown in the following equation (8), the order of variables with the presence symbol (∃) in the first order predicate logical expression ψ may be explicitly fixed.

Here, an example of the first-order predicate logical expression ψ by the expression (8) based on the example of the first expression Obj, the second expression RstAi, and the fourth expression RstCi shown in FIG. Shown in

  In the quantifier elimination process by the quantifier elimination unit 1024, a variable with a presence symbol (∃) in the first-order predicate logical expression ψ is erased, and a change prediction logical expression indicating the relationship between the price change dP and the total demand change dEt φ (dP, dEt) is generated. Here, when a region satisfying the change prediction logical expression φ (dP, dEt) based on the example of the first order predicate logical expression ψ shown in FIG. 15 is plotted in the orthogonal coordinate system, it is as shown in FIG. As an example, if the total demand change dEt = −8 kWh, the price change dP that satisfies the change prediction logical expression φ (dP, dEt) is in the range from about ¥ 7.8 to about ¥ 14.2. That is, in this example, when it is desired to suppress the power demand by 8 kWh from the current level, it is necessary to increase the power price by ¥ 7.8 to ¥ 14.2 from the current level.

  In this way, the price determination apparatus 1 of the present embodiment generates and inputs the change prediction logical expression φ (dP, dEt) even when the price elasticity model C is used as each price elasticity model i. Outputs necessary price change with respect to required demand change.

  When the price elasticity model A shown in FIG. 4 is used as each price elasticity model i, only the first mathematical expression Obj and the second mathematical expression RstAi are used in the first-order predicate logical expression generation processing. A first order predicate logical expression ψ is generated. Further, when the price elasticity model D shown in FIG. 7 is used as each price elasticity model i, in the first-order predicate logical expression generation processing, the first expression Obj, the second expression RstAi, the third expression A first order predicate logical expression ψ is generated using the mathematical expression RstBi and the fourth mathematical expression RstCi. Further, different types of price elasticity models A to D shown in FIGS. 4 to 7 may be mixed for each consumer.

=== Configuration of Price Determination Support Device ===
In the price determination apparatus 1 of the above-described embodiment, the necessary price change corresponding to the input necessary demand change is output, but the process of obtaining the required price change based on the change prediction logical formula φ (dP, dEt) The entity that determines the transaction price such as 17 and 18 show the configuration of a price determination support apparatus that supports the determination of such transaction price.

  The price determination support device 2 shown in FIG. 17 is configured with a display unit 107 instead of the necessary price change calculation unit 103 with respect to the price determination device 1. Then, the display unit 107 displays the change prediction logical expression φ (dP, dEt) generated by the quantifier elimination unit 1024 on a graph as shown in FIG. 12 or FIG. Further, when the price determination support apparatus 2 is constructed on a computer system, as shown in FIG. 18, an output unit 107 such as a liquid crystal display functions as a display unit.

  As described above, the price determination device 1 predicts the total demand change dEt according to the price change dP based on the price elasticity model having the price change boundary value dPL and the demand change limit value dEL for each customer, By calculating the necessary price change with respect to the input necessary demand change based on the prediction result, it is possible to determine an appropriate transaction price that causes the necessary demand change without imposing an excessive burden on the consumer. In such a price elasticity model, the demand change dE is proportional to the price change dP until the demand change dE reaches the limit value dEL from 0, and the demand change dE is constant at the limit value dEL. Furthermore, considering that the price elasticity can change within a certain range depending on the situation at a time, a price elasticity model in which the price change boundary value dPL and the demand change limit value dEL have a certain width can be used. .

  Further, a logical product of the first mathematical formula Obj and the second mathematical formula RstAi generated based on the price elasticity model i for each consumer is taken, and a variable other than the price change dP and the total demand change dEt is attached to a variable. By generating the first order predicate logical expression ψ, the change prediction logical expression φ (dP, dEt) indicating the relationship between the price change dP and the total demand change dEt can be generated by the limit symbol elimination process. For a price elasticity model in which the demand change limit value dELi has a certain range, a third mathematical expression RstBi representing the constraint condition of the demand change limit value dELi is generated, and a first-order predicate logical expression ψ is generated. At this time, the logical product of the third mathematical formula RstBi may be taken. On the other hand, for a price elasticity model in which the price change boundary value dPLi has a certain width, a fourth mathematical expression RstCi representing the constraint condition of the price change boundary value dPLi is generated, and a first-order predicate logical expression ψ is generated. At this time, the logical product of the fourth mathematical formula RstCi may be taken.

  Further, by further providing a price change database 108a for storing a history of price change dP and a demand change database 108b for storing a history of demand change dEi for each customer, based on these history, a price change database 108a for each customer. A price elasticity model i can be generated. The price change database 108a is added / updated by the required price change output from the required price change calculation unit 103.

  In addition, in a program for causing a computer to execute processing corresponding to the change prediction unit 102 and the necessary price change calculation unit 103 of the price determination device 1, each customer has a price change boundary value dPL and a demand change limit value dEL. By predicting the total demand change dEt according to the price change dP based on the price elasticity model and calculating the required price change for the input required demand change based on the prediction result, It is possible to determine an appropriate transaction price that brings about a necessary change in demand without imposing a burden.

  Further, the total demand change dEt corresponding to the price change dP is predicted based on the price elasticity model having the price change boundary value dPL and the demand change limit value dEL for each consumer, and input based on the prediction result. By calculating the necessary price change with respect to the necessary demand change, it is possible to determine an appropriate transaction price that causes the necessary demand change without imposing an excessive burden on the consumer.

  Further, as described above, in the price determination support device 2, the total demand change dEt corresponding to the price change dP is calculated based on the price elasticity model having the price change boundary value dPL and the demand change limit value dEL for each customer. An entity that determines a transaction price such as an electric power company by predicting and displaying a graph showing the relationship between the price change dP and the total demand change dEt based on the prediction result, It is possible to determine an appropriate transaction price that brings about a necessary change in demand without imposing a burden.

  Further, in a program for causing a computer to execute processing corresponding to the change prediction unit 102 and the display unit 107 of the price determination support apparatus 2, price elasticity having a price change boundary value dPL and a demand change limit value dEL for each consumer. By predicting the total demand change dEt according to the price change dP based on the sex model and displaying a graph indicating the relationship between the price change dP and the total demand change dEt on the display unit 107 based on the prediction result Using this graph, it is possible to determine an appropriate transaction price that brings about a necessary change in demand without imposing an excessive burden.

  Further, based on the price elasticity model having the price change boundary value dPL and the demand change limit value dEL for each consumer, the total demand change dEt corresponding to the price change dP is predicted, and the price change is based on the prediction result. By displaying a graph showing the relationship between dP and the total demand change dEt, it is possible to determine an appropriate transaction price that causes a necessary change in demand without imposing an excessive burden.

  In addition, the said embodiment is for making an understanding of this invention easy, and is not for limiting and interpreting this invention. The present invention can be changed and improved without departing from the gist thereof, and the present invention includes equivalents thereof.

  In the above-described embodiment, the price determination (support) device used for the price-type demand response that reduces the power demand by increasing the power price has been described. However, the present invention is not limited to this. The price determination (support) device of the above embodiment can be widely applied to the determination of the transaction price in a transaction target whose demand changes according to the price. Suitable for determining.

  Also, it can be used to increase demand by lowering the price as opposed to decreasing demand by raising the price, in which case the price change dP ≦ 0 and the demand change dE ≧ 0. A price elasticity model that shows the relationship between the two in the domain will be used. The price elasticity model in this case is a model in which the graph of the fourth quadrant shown in FIGS. 4 to 7 is rotated by 180 ° around the origin and moved to the second quadrant.

  Moreover, the price determination (support) apparatus of the said embodiment can be used not only for a price type demand response but for an incentive type demand response. In this case, by changing the required price change (price increase) in the price-type demand response to the strength of the incentive (granting points for reducing power demand), the size of the incentive-type demand response is determined. Can be used.

  Moreover, although the said embodiment demonstrated that the price elasticity model showing the demand change according to the price change for every consumer was produced | generated by the model production | generation process, it is not limited to this. The model generation process may generate a price elasticity model that represents a demand change according to a price change for each region including a plurality of consumers.

  In the above embodiment, the change prediction process performs the first-order predicate logical expression generation process and the quantifier elimination process to predict the change in the total demand change dEt according to the price change dP (dP, dEt). ), But is not limited to this. When the required price change with respect to the required demand change is not calculated as a range but only as a single value, the formula group generated by the formula group generation process can be directly solved as a constraint satisfaction problem by the numerical solution method. .

非線形関数ｆ（ｘ）は、ｘ＝０のとき０となる任意の関数で構わない。例えば、２次関数の場合には、以下の式（１０）を一例として適用することができる。

Moreover, it is an equation that represents a demand change according to a price change for each consumer, and the second formula RstAi corresponding to the constraint condition of each demand change dEi is a general formula in addition to the form shown in the formula (2). Nonlinear functions can also be applied. As described above, the demand change dEi increases or decreases according to the price change dP until reaching the limit value dELi from 0, and becomes constant at the limit value dELi, so dEi = dELi. In summary, the second equation RstAi can be expressed as the following equation (9) by applying the nonlinear function f (x).

The nonlinear function f (x) may be an arbitrary function that becomes 0 when x = 0. For example, in the case of a quadratic function, the following formula (10) can be applied as an example.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Price determination apparatus 2 Price determination support apparatus 100 Computer 101 Model production | generation part 102 Change prediction part 103 Necessary price change calculation part 106 Input part 107 Output part (display part)
DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 108 Memory | storage part 108a Price change database 108b Demand change database 109 Bus 1021 Parameter setting part 1022 Formula group generation part 1023 First-order predicate logic expression generation part 1024 Limit symbol elimination part

Claims (12)

A price determination device for determining a transaction price in a transaction object whose demand changes according to a price,
Based on a price elasticity model that represents a demand change according to a price change for each consumer, a change prediction unit that predicts a total demand change that is the sum of the demand changes for each consumer according to the price change;
A required price change calculation unit that calculates the price change necessary to bring about the required change in demand based on the prediction result of the change prediction unit;
Have
The price elasticity model is
The price change boundary value and the demand change limit value for each consumer,
Until the demand change reaches the limit value from 0, the demand change decreases as the price change increases, or the demand change increases as the price change decreases,
The price determining device, wherein the demand change is constant at the limit value. The price determination device according to claim 1,
The price elasticity model is characterized in that the demand change is proportional to the price change until the demand change reaches the limit value from 0. The price determination device according to claim 1 or claim 2, wherein
The change prediction unit
Based on the price elasticity model, a first mathematical expression showing a relationship between the demand change for each consumer and the total demand change, and a first formula representing the demand change corresponding to the price change for each consumer. A formula group generation unit that generates the formula of 2.
A first-order predicate logical expression generation unit that takes a logical product of the first and second mathematical expressions and generates a first-order predicate logical expression by attaching a quantifier to variables other than the price change and the total demand change;
A quantifier elimination unit that eliminates a variable with a quantifier in the first order predicate formula and generates a change prediction formula that indicates the relationship between the price change and the total demand change;
Including
The required price change calculation unit calculates the price change with respect to the total demand change corresponding to the required change in demand based on the change prediction logical formula. The price determination device according to claim 1 or claim 2, wherein
The price determination apparatus, wherein the limit value of the demand change in the price elasticity model is indicated in a range having an upper limit value and a lower limit value for each consumer. The price determination device according to claim 4,
The change prediction unit
Based on the price elasticity model, a first mathematical expression showing a relationship between the demand change for each consumer and the total demand change, and a first formula representing the demand change corresponding to the price change for each consumer. A formula group generation unit that generates the formula of 2 and a third formula that represents the constraint condition of the limit value of the demand change for each consumer;
A first-order predicate logical expression generation unit that takes a logical product of the first to third mathematical expressions and generates a first-order predicate logical expression by adding a quantifier to variables other than the price change and the total demand change;
A quantifier elimination unit that eliminates a variable with a quantifier in the first order predicate formula and generates a change prediction formula that indicates the relationship between the price change and the total demand change;
Including
The required price change calculation unit calculates the price change with respect to the total demand change corresponding to the required change in demand based on the change prediction logical formula. The price determination device according to claim 1 or claim 2, wherein
The price determination apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the boundary value of the price change in the price elasticity model is indicated in a range having an upper limit value and a lower limit value for each consumer. The price determination device according to claim 6,
The change prediction unit
Based on the price elasticity model, a first mathematical expression showing a relationship between the demand change for each consumer and the total demand change, and a first formula representing the demand change corresponding to the price change for each consumer. A formula group generation unit that generates a formula of 2 and a fourth formula that represents the constraint condition of the boundary value of the price change for each customer;
A first-order predicate logical expression generation unit that takes a logical product of the first, second, and fourth mathematical expressions and generates a first-order predicate logical expression by adding a quantifier to variables other than the price change and the total demand change. When,
A quantifier elimination unit that eliminates a variable with a quantifier in the first order predicate formula and generates a change prediction formula that indicates the relationship between the price change and the total demand change;
Including
The required price change calculation unit calculates the price change with respect to the total demand change corresponding to the required change in demand based on the change prediction logical formula. The price determination device according to any one of claims 1 to 7,
A price change database for storing a history of the price change;
A demand change database for storing a history of the demand change for each consumer;
A model generation unit that generates the price elasticity model for each consumer based on the price change history and the demand change history;
A price determining device further comprising: A price determination program for determining a transaction price in a transaction object whose demand changes according to a price,
On the computer,
Based on a price elasticity model that represents a demand change according to a price change for each consumer, a change prediction process that predicts a total demand change that is the sum of the demand changes for each consumer according to the price change;
A required price change calculation process for calculating the price change necessary to bring about the required change in demand based on the prediction result of the change prediction process;
And execute
The price elasticity model is
The price change boundary value and the demand change limit value for each consumer,
Until the demand change reaches the limit value from 0, the demand change decreases as the price change increases, or the demand change increases as the price change decreases,
The price determination program, wherein the demand change is constant at the limit value. A method for determining a transaction price in a transaction object whose demand changes according to a price,
It represents a demand change corresponding to a price change for each consumer, and until the demand change reaches a limit value from 0, the demand change decreases as the price change increases, or the demand changes as the price change decreases. Based on a price elasticity model in which the change increases and the demand change becomes constant at a limit value, a total demand change that is the sum of the demand changes for each customer according to the price change is predicted,
A price determination method characterized by calculating the price change necessary to bring about the required change in demand based on the prediction result. A price determination support device that supports the determination of a transaction price in a transaction object whose demand changes according to a price,
Based on a price elasticity model that represents a demand change according to a price change for each consumer, a change prediction unit that predicts a total demand change that is the sum of the demand changes for each consumer according to the price change;
Based on the prediction result of the change prediction unit, a display unit that displays a graph showing the relationship between the price change and the total demand change;
Have
The price elasticity model is
The price change boundary value and the demand change limit value for each consumer,
Until the demand change reaches the limit value from 0, the demand change decreases as the price change increases, or the demand change increases as the price change decreases,
The price determination support apparatus, wherein the demand change is constant at the limit value. A pricing support program that supports the determination of a transaction price for a transaction object whose demand changes according to the price,
In a computer with a display,
Based on a price elasticity model that represents a demand change according to a price change for each consumer, a change prediction process that predicts a total demand change that is the sum of the demand changes for each consumer according to the price change;
Based on the prediction result of the change prediction process, a display process for displaying a graph indicating the relationship between the price change and the total demand change on the display unit;
And execute
The price elasticity model is
The price change boundary value and the demand change limit value for each consumer,
Until the demand change reaches the limit value from 0, the demand change decreases as the price change increases, or the demand change increases as the price change decreases,
A price determination support program, wherein the demand change is constant at the limit value.

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