JP2014176204A - Supply power prediction system and supply power regulating system - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a supply power prediction system capable of using small-sized hydroelectric power generation as a stable power supply source in view of characteristics of a hydroelectric generator.SOLUTION: The supply power prediction system 100 includes: a power generation state data management section 111 that manages data concerning power generation states in individual small-sized hydroelectric generators 10; an accompanying information management section 112 that manages a plurality of types of accompanying information with a correlation relationship to a power generation amount in the small-sized hydroelectric generators 10; and a supply power prediction section 120 that predicts a progress of supply power amount of small-sized hydroelectric power generation in a target range on the basis of the data concerning the power generation states and accompanying information.

Description

  Embodiments of the present invention relate to a supply power prediction system that predicts a supply power amount obtained by small hydropower generation and a supply power adjustment system that performs power adjustment between grids based on a prediction result.

  Small hydro (micro hydro turbine) power generation is characterized by the fact that it does not require a dam or large-scale water source like conventional hydro power generation, and can be generated with a small water source and simple construction. Because of its simplicity, small hydropower generation is expected to be used in various places such as agricultural waterways, water and sewage facilities, building facilities, and homes. Small hydropower uses hydropower, a renewable energy, and does not require fossil fuels. For this reason, small hydropower generation is an excellent energy source in terms of economy and environment, and expectations are high for future use.

  Under such circumstances, technological development related to small hydroelectric power generation is being promoted. For example, Patent Document 1 discloses a small hydroelectric power generation system that combines a small hydroelectric generator with an energy storage device and controls power generation according to the energy storage status.

JP 2011-87459 A

  In general, the output from each small hydroelectric generator varies depending on the capacity, installation location, conditions, etc., and the amount of power supplied and the stability thereof are not constant. Since the power supplied from one small hydroelectric generator is sufficiently small compared to the conventional large hydroelectric generator, in the situation where a small number of small hydroelectric generators are installed, there is a possibility that such fluctuation will lead to a big problem. small.

  However, when it is introduced in a large amount in a region, a small amount of fluctuation accumulates, which may cause a risk of power supply when viewed as an entire power supply system. For this reason, in order to use small hydropower generation as a stable power supply source, a supply power adjustment system that takes into account the characteristics of each small hydropower generator is required.

  In the small hydroelectric power generation system disclosed in Patent Document 1, the energy obtained by the small hydroelectric generator is stored, and local management is realized by performing power generation control according to the storage amount. However, this system does not perform management for making the electric power obtained by a large number of small hydroelectric generators into a stable power supply source as a whole.

  The present invention has been made in view of the above problems, and provides a power supply prediction system and a power supply adjustment system for using small hydropower as a stable power supply source in consideration of the characteristics of the small hydropower generator. The purpose is to do.

In order to achieve the above object, an embodiment of the present invention is a supply power prediction system having the following configuration.
(1) A power generation status data management unit that manages data related to the power generation status of each small hydroelectric generator,
(2) an accompanying information management unit for managing a plurality of types of accompanying information having a correlation with the power generation amount in the small hydroelectric generator;
(3) A supply power prediction unit that performs a process of predicting the transition of the supply power amount of the small hydropower generation in the target range based on the data on the power generation status and the accompanying information.

Another embodiment of the present invention is a supply power adjustment system having the following configuration.
(1) A power generation status data management unit that manages data related to the power generation status of each small hydroelectric generator,
(2) an accompanying information management unit for managing a plurality of types of accompanying information having a correlation with the power generation amount in the small hydroelectric generator;
(3) A supply power prediction unit that performs a process of predicting the transition of the supply power amount of small hydropower generation in a predetermined grid based on the data on the power generation status and the accompanying information;
(4) a cost database unit that holds data relating to power charges outside the grid at the date and time related to the prediction;
(5) An environmental database section holding data relating to environmental information outside the grid,
(6) Power trading amount determination for performing processing for determining power trading amount in power trading with the outside of the grid based on the predicted power supply amount, the power charge outside the grid, and the environmental information outside the grid. Department.

It is a block diagram which shows the function structure of the power supply prediction system which concerns on Embodiment 1. FIG. It is a graph which shows the electric power generation amount in each small hydroelectric generator which a power generation condition data management part collects and manages. It is a figure showing an example of the accompanying information which an accompanying information management part collects and manages. It is a graph which shows the prediction data of the power supply amount in the small hydroelectric power generation which a power supply prediction part estimates. It is a block diagram which shows the function structure of the power supply prediction system which concerns on Embodiment 2. FIG. It is a block diagram which shows the function structure of the power supply prediction system which concerns on Embodiment 3. FIG. It is the figure which showed an example of the small hydroelectric generator information which a small hydroelectric generator information management part manages. It is a block diagram which shows the function structure of the power supply prediction system which concerns on Embodiment 4. FIG. It is a figure which shows an example of the calculation formula of the prediction electric power generation amount in each small hydroelectric generator. It is a flowchart figure which shows the flow of the prediction process of the power supply amount in small hydroelectric power generation. It is a block diagram which shows the function structure of the power supply adjustment system which concerns on Embodiment 5. FIG. It is a block diagram which shows the specific structure of an electric power trading amount determination part. It is a block diagram which shows the function structure of the power supply adjustment system which concerns on Embodiment 6. FIG. It is a block diagram which shows the specific structure of the stored electric energy determination part. It is a block diagram which shows the function structure of the power supply prediction system which concerns on Embodiment 7. FIG.

  Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. In the following description of each embodiment, the portions denoted by the same reference numerals have substantially the same function, and the description of overlapping portions is omitted as appropriate.

<First Embodiment>
FIG. 1 is a block diagram illustrating a configuration of a small hydroelectric power generation system according to the first embodiment. The small hydroelectric power generation system includes a plurality of small hydroelectric generators 10a to 10n and a supply power prediction system 100 that manages and predicts the amount of power supplied from each small hydroelectric generator.

  The small hydroelectric generators 10a to 10n (hereinafter sometimes abbreviated as “generators”) are hydroelectric generators that mainly perform small-scale power generation of 1 megawatt or less, and are installed in a wide variety of flowing water channels. For example, the generator 10a is installed in the rainwater drain, the generator 10b is installed in the irrigation canal, the generator 10c is installed in the housing drain, and the generator 10n is installed in the factory drain. Data relating to the power generation status of each of the generators 10a to 10n (power generation capacity, time-series power generation pattern, etc.) is transmitted to the supply power prediction system 100 via a communication network such as the Internet or power line communication.

  The supply power prediction system 100 includes a data management unit 110 and a supply power prediction unit 120. The data management unit 110 manages data and accompanying information regarding the power generation status of each of the small hydroelectric generators 10a to 10n. The data management unit 110 includes a power generation status data management unit 111 and an accompanying information management unit 112.

  The power generation status data management unit 111 collects and manages data related to the power generation status of each of the generators 10a to 10n in real time. Specifically, the power generation status data management unit 111 receives data relating to the power generation status of each of the generators 10a to 10n via the communication network, and stores the received data in a database for management.

  A device ID is assigned to each generator, and the power generation status data management unit 111 stores the power generation status data of the generator identified by each device ID in a time series in a database for management. FIG. 2 is an example of a graph showing the power generation status of each generator on a predetermined observation date managed by the power generation status data management unit 111. As can be seen from the graph, the power generation status of each generator shows different tendencies depending on the installation location, time zone, type of generator, and the like. In addition, the trend of power generation status varies depending on the day and season.

  Moreover, the power generation status data management unit 111 manages the power generation status data indicating the transition of the power generation amount on the past date by classifying the power generation status data for each date and storing it in the database. The power generation status data management unit 111 receives the power generation amount data transmitted from each small hydroelectric generator existing in the target range in real time and stores it in the database in time series, thereby relating to the past power generation status. Manage data as well. The power generation status data on the past date is read from the supply power prediction unit 120 as necessary and used for prediction of the supply power amount.

  The accompanying information management unit 112 collects and manages accompanying information (accompanying data) that is information having a predetermined correlation with the power generation amount in each of the generators 10a to 10n. The accompanying information includes information such as climate conditions, factory operation conditions, apartment house staying conditions, cultivation / water use conditions, and the like. The accompanying information management unit 112 acquires the accompanying information from each information source, and stores and manages the information in a database. The accompanying information management unit 112 stores and manages past accompanying information in a database in addition to accompanying information at the previous date and time used for prediction.

  The information on the climatic conditions includes, for example, information such as the temperature, humidity, weather, and precipitation amount on the day. For example, the incidental information management unit 112 may acquire information related to climate conditions by periodically receiving data distributed from the data server of the Japan Meteorological Agency, or may be installed independently around a small hydroelectric generator. Data may be collected from existing measuring equipment.

  Since these climatic conditions affect, for example, the amount of water and sewage used in an apartment house, they have a close correlation with the amount of power generated by a small hydroelectric generator installed in the apartment house. For example, in small hydroelectric generators, the rise in temperature and humidity in areas where small hydroelectric generators are installed will lead to an increase in water consumption, and precipitation will cause an increase in rainwater (sewage). Power generation increases. For example, precipitation has a close correlation with the amount of power generated by a small hydroelectric generator installed in a gutter such as a road. On the other hand, climate conditions have little correlation with the amount of power generated by small hydroelectric generators installed in factory drains.

  The information related to the factory operation status includes, for example, information such as the factory operation rate and the operation pattern for each time zone of the day. Depending on the amount of water used or the amount of sewage generated during factory operations, the amount of power generated by small hydropower varies. Therefore, the incidental information management unit 112 collects and manages information such as the factory operation rate and the operation pattern that affects the amount of water and water supply and has a high relationship with the amount of power generation in the small hydroelectric generator installed in the factory. .

  For example, information related to the factory operating status is transmitted at a predetermined frequency from the factory, and the accompanying information management unit 112 receives the transmitted information related to the factory operating status and stores it in the database. Further, the accompanying information management unit 112 may acquire information such as the factory operation rate based on the amount of electricity used in the factory.

  The information on the staying at home includes, for example, information on the staying home rate and lifestyle patterns of residents. Since the amount of water used or the amount of sewage generated changes depending on the residents 'home conditions, the accompanying information management unit 112 provides information on the residents' home ratio and lifestyle patterns that affect the amount of water and sewage used in apartment buildings. Collect and manage.

  Residents' home situations are classified into a plurality of life patterns such as patterns A, B, and C based on past home data. In addition, since the information on the home rate and the life pattern includes personal information, the accompanying information management unit 112 determines the power consumption status data and family information for information on the home status closely related to the small hydroelectric generator installed in the house. A default value estimated from the configuration or the like may be substituted.

  The information on the state of cultivation / water use includes, for example, information such as the cultivated crop, the cultivating schedule, the cultivated area, the required amount of water for each cultivated crop, and the watering pattern for each cultivated crop. Since the agricultural water or surplus agricultural water after being used for cultivation is used for small hydropower generation, the information on the cultivation and irrigation situation tends to change between months and seasons rather than days.

  FIG. 3 shows an example of accompanying information on a predetermined observation date. An individual identifier is assigned to each accompanying information, and the accompanying information management unit 112 classifies and manages the accompanying information collected or received from each information source for each type indicated by the identifier. In the example of FIG. 3, the incidental information management unit 112 stores each collected incidental information in a database in a state classified for each type, so that each incidental information used for the prediction process in the subsequent supply power prediction unit 120 is performed. Manage.

  The supplied power prediction unit 120 is configured to reduce the small amount in the target range based on the current power generation amount in each of the small hydroelectric generators 10a to 10n managed by the power generation status data management unit 111 and the accompanying information managed by the accompanying information management unit 112. Predict the transition of hydroelectric power supply.

  Specifically, the power supply predicting unit 120 acquires accompanying information having a correlation with the power generation amount of each small hydroelectric generator from the accompanying information management unit 112, and the future power generation expected in the small hydroelectric generator Calculate the predicted power generation amount. For example, the power supply predicting unit 120 may calculate the predicted power generation amount for one day from the present to 24 hours later, or may calculate the predicted power generation amount on the observation day. The supplied power prediction unit 120 performs the above calculation process for at least each small hydroelectric generator included in the target range.

  As an example, it is assumed that the power generation amount at the current time of the small hydraulic power generator 10a managed by the power generation status data management unit 111 is 1.2 kWh. The supplied power prediction unit 120 calculates a ratio between a value obtained from the accompanying information at the current time by a predetermined calculation formula and a value obtained from the accompanying information at the prediction target time by the predetermined calculation formula. For example, it is assumed that the value at the current time is 10 and the value at the prediction target time is 15. In this case, the power generation amount at the prediction target time indicates that the power generation amount at the current time increases by 50%. Therefore, the supplied power prediction unit 120 calculates that 1.8 kWh obtained by multiplying 1.2 kWh, which is the power generation amount at the current time, by 1.5 is the predicted power generation amount at the prediction target time. The supplied power prediction unit 120 calculates the predicted power generation amount at a plurality of times in each small hydroelectric generator.

  The power supply predicting unit 120 obtains the transition of the power supply in the small hydroelectric power generation predicted in the target range by taking the sum of the predicted power generation amounts calculated for the individual small hydroelectric generators included in the target range.

  FIG. 4 shows a prediction result of the transition of the supplied power amount obtained based on the calculation process in the supplied power prediction unit 120. In FIG. 4, the current date and time is assumed to be 10:00 am on the day of △ month and day, and the supply power prediction unit 120 calculates the predicted supply power amount by small-scale hydroelectric power generation up to 12 hours ahead. The prediction result is sent from the supply power prediction unit 120 to the host system and used for power adjustment, power trading, and the like.

  As described above, according to the power supply prediction system according to the first embodiment, the amount of power supplied from small hydropower generation can be managed quantitatively, so that effective use of small hydropower, which has conventionally been unused energy, is effectively used. Can be connected.

  Until now, technological development related to power generation using natural energy such as sunlight and wind power and small-scale thermal power has been relatively advanced.Small-scale hydroelectric power generation includes these scales, installation conditions, There are differences from various viewpoints such as power generation conditions. Therefore, these power generation technologies cannot be directly applied to small hydropower generation, and have not been sufficiently utilized as a stable power supply source.

  On the other hand, the supply power prediction system according to the first embodiment is installed in many small hydroelectric generators, and each individual small hydroelectric generator has a feature that the power generation amount and the power generation pattern vary depending on the installation location and installation conditions. The amount of power generation is predicted individually, and the change in the amount of power supplied in small hydropower generation in the target range is predicted. By using the power supply prediction system, it is possible to accurately grasp the total amount of power generated by a small hydroelectric generator that exists within the target range, and it is possible to use small hydropower as a stable power supply source. It becomes. Therefore, it is possible to achieve a reduction in trading costs and a reduction in environmental burden by adjusting the trading amount of power based on the prediction obtained by the system.

  Small hydropower generation does not require fossil-derived fuels, so it is an excellent energy source in terms of economy and environment. Economic efficiency of society as a whole by connecting such energy sources to stable power supply From the environmental point of view, great improvement can be expected.

<Embodiment 2>
Small hydropower generation is a small-scale hydropower generation using small hydropower that has not been used in the past. Therefore, compared to large-scale hydropower generation installed in dams and rivers, individual hydropower generation is more stable. The reliability and reliability are relatively low. Therefore, by complementing each other with a large number of small hydroelectric generators, stabilization of the amount of power supplied as a whole of the small hydroelectric power generator is achieved.

  However, in order to accurately predict the amount of power supplied in small hydroelectric power generation, it is preferable to introduce a certain index regarding the case where each small hydroelectric generator falls into a power generation impossible state. The power supply prediction system according to the second embodiment is characterized in that the prediction accuracy of the power supply amount is improved by using a prediction system that takes into account the power generation impossible state.

  FIG. 5 is a block diagram illustrating a configuration of a supply power prediction system 200 according to the second embodiment. The supply power prediction system 200 stores, in addition to the configuration of the supply power prediction system 100, a power generation impossible state calculation unit 210 that obtains information related to a power generation disabled state, and information related to the power generation disabled state calculated by the power generation disabled state calculation unit 210. And a power generation disabled state database 220 to be managed.

  The power generation impossible state calculation unit 210 includes the actual power generation amount of each small hydroelectric generator 10a to 10n managed by the power generation status data management unit 111 and the small hydroelectric generators 10a to 10n calculated by the supply power prediction unit 120. A process of comparing the predicted power generation amount is performed. Based on the comparison result, the power generation disabled state calculation unit 210 performs a process of determining whether a power generation disabled state has occurred in the small power generators 10a to 10n that are data managed. Based on the result of the determination process, the power generation disabled state calculation unit 210 obtains a situation where a power generation disabled state occurs in each of the small hydroelectric generators 10a to 10n or a probability that a power generation disabled state will occur (power generation stoppage risk generation probability). .

  As an example of a specific process, the power generation impossible state calculation unit 210 continues a period in which the actual power generation amount in the small hydroelectric generator is less than a predetermined reference amount compared to the predicted power generation amount for a predetermined reference period or longer. If it is, it is determined that the small hydroelectric generator is in a power generation disabled state.

  Based on the information regarding the power generation disabled state stored in the power generation disabled state database 220, the power generation disabled state calculation unit 210 generates a situation where a power generation disabled state occurs, a situation where a power generation disabled state occurs, Information related to the power generation disabled state is obtained, such as the probability that the power generation disabled state occurs, the frequency at which the power generation disabled state occurs, the average value of the period during which the power generation disabled state continues, and the average value of the period until recovery from the power generation disabled state.

  The power generation disabled state database 220 is stored in the information regarding the power generation disabled state calculated by the power generation disabled state calculation unit 210. Information regarding the power generation disabled state is managed for each of the small hydroelectric generators 10a to 10n. Information related to the power generation disabled state is read when the power generation disabled state calculation unit 210 determines that a new power generation disabled state has occurred, and is recalculated by adding the newly determined power generation disabled state event. By storing the probability and the average value in the power generation impossible information database 220, the information regarding the power generation disabled state is updated.

  The supplied power prediction unit 120 is based on the data on the power generation status managed by the power generation status data management unit 111, the accompanying information managed by the accompanying information management unit 112, and the information on the power generation disabled state managed by the power generation disabled state database 113. Thus, the process of predicting the transition of the amount of power supplied in small hydropower generation is performed.

  For example, in the small hydroelectric generator 10n, it is assumed that the predicted power generation amount in a predetermined time zone obtained from the data on the power generation status and the accompanying information is 10 kWh, and the power generation disabled state occurs in the time zone of the small hydroelectric generator 10n. It is assumed that the power generation impossible state database 220 stores that the probability of performing is 1%. In this case, the supplied power prediction unit 120 calculates the final predicted power generation amount as 9.9 kWh in consideration of the probability of occurrence of the power generation disabled state of 1%.

  As described above, in the power supply prediction system 200 according to the second embodiment, the power supply prediction unit 120 performs the correction based on the information on the power generation disabled state stored in the power generation disabled state database 220 and then performs the small hydraulic power. Predict changes in the amount of power supplied for power generation. According to this configuration, the power supply predicting unit 120 performs power supply amount prediction that takes into account statistical data related to the occurrence of a power generation disabled state, and therefore, highly accurate prediction is possible.

  Small hydroelectric generators have relatively low stability due to their small scale, and for example, a relatively high percentage of events that say that foreign matter such as flowing plants get entangled with the micro water turbine and become unable to generate electricity. Arise. In view of such a situation, in the supply power prediction system 200 according to the second embodiment, in what situation, how often (probability) power generation is impossible is obtained as the generation impossible state occurrence information, The amount of supplied power is predicted based on the information on the generation disabled state. By setting it as the said structure, the prediction precision of electric power generation amount can be improved compared with the case where the prediction which does not take into consideration the impossible state is performed.

<Embodiment 3>
The predicted value of the supplied power amount, which is the prediction result in the supplied power prediction system according to the first and second embodiments, is sent to the host system and used for power adjustment and the like. What time zone and in what area the predicted value of the amount of power supplied from the small hydropower generation is required by the host system depends on the processing contents in the host system. Therefore, it is preferable that the supply power prediction system can predict supply power under various conditions. The supply power prediction system according to the third embodiment is characterized in that a prediction result of the required supply power amount can be flexibly presented.

  FIG. 6 is a block diagram illustrating a configuration of a supply power prediction system 300 according to the third embodiment. The power supply prediction system 300 includes a data management unit 110, a power supply prediction unit 120, a condition input unit 310, and a prediction result presentation unit 320. The data management unit 110 includes a power generation status data management unit 111, an accompanying information management unit 112, and a small hydroelectric generator information management unit 113.

  The small hydroelectric generator information management unit 113 stores and manages information related to the small hydroelectric generator targeted by the supply power prediction system 300. FIG. 7 shows an example of information about the small hydroelectric generator managed by the small hydroelectric generator information management unit 113. The information includes a device ID for identifying each small hydroelectric generator, an area (position information) in which the small hydroelectric generator is installed, a type of facility in which the small hydroelectric generator is installed, a maximum power generation amount ( Maximum output) is stored in association with each other.

  The condition input unit 310 inputs the target date and time and the target range in which the power supply amount is predicted as a prediction condition. The condition input unit 310 may input the date and area designated by the user via the keyboard or the like as the target date and time or the target range. In addition, the condition input unit 310 may receive information related to the target date and time or the target range transmitted from the host system and perform the input.

  The supplied power prediction unit 120 predicts a change in the amount of supplied power in the small hydroelectric power generation according to the condition input by the condition input unit 310. For example, when the date and time one hour later is specified as the prediction target date and time in the condition input unit 310, the power supply prediction unit 120 supplies the power supplied up to one hour specified in the condition input unit 310. Predict changes in quantity.

  In addition, when an area that is a prediction target range is specified in the condition input unit 310, the supplied power prediction unit 120 is specified by the condition input unit 310 with reference to the small hydroelectric generator information management unit 113. Extract small hydroelectric generators belonging to the area. The power supply predicting unit 120 predicts the power generation amount in each extracted small water travel generator, and takes the sum of the predicted power generation amount to calculate the power supply amount from the small hydropower generation in the specified target range. Predict the transition.

  The prediction result presentation unit 320 outputs the prediction pattern of the power generation situation as the entire small hydroelectric power generation in the target date and time or the target range, which is the prediction result in the supply power prediction unit 120. The prediction result presentation unit 320 may present the prediction result by displaying it on a display, or may output it in a predetermined format.

  As described above, according to the supply power prediction system 300 according to the third embodiment, in the target range based on the information stored and managed by the data management unit 110 according to the condition for generating power generation prediction. The power supply pattern by small hydropower generation can be grasped.

  The small hydraulic generator information stored and managed by the small hydraulic generator information management unit 113 is not limited to the information described above. For example, it may be configured to include information on the type of each small hydroelectric generator, the installation date on which the small hydroelectric generator is installed, and other information such as the installer (owner) of the small hydroelectric generator.

  Moreover, the conditions input by the condition input unit 310 are not limited to the above-described conditions. For example, it is possible to input a condition relating to information stored and managed by the small hydroelectric generator information storage unit 113, such as the device ID of the small hydroelectric generator, the installer, and the type of other installed equipment. It is.

  For example, the condition input unit 310 inputs a predetermined installer as a condition, and the supply power prediction unit 120 predicts the supply power amount in the small hydroelectric generator installed by the installer input by the condition input unit 310. It is good also as a structure. In addition, for example, the condition input unit 310 inputs the information for identifying the facility or the apartment house in the condition input unit 310 as a condition, and the supply power prediction unit 120 specifies the facility or the apartment house specified based on the input information. It is good also as a structure which estimates the power supply amount in the small hydroelectric generator installed in the.

  In addition, the condition input unit 310 may be configured to input information related to climate conditions, home stay ratios, and other factory operations as conditions. The power supply prediction unit 120 performs a process of predicting the amount of power supply based on the input conditions, and the prediction result presentation unit 320 outputs a prediction result obtained by the performed prediction process.

  When the incidental information management unit 112 has not collected the incidental information necessary for the prediction, the user inputs the incidental information necessary for the prediction of the power supply amount from the condition input unit 310. The supplied power prediction unit 120 calculates the predicted supply power amount based on the condition input by the condition input unit 310. With such a configuration, flexible prediction is possible.

<Embodiment 4>
In the supply power prediction system according to the first to third embodiments, the supply power prediction unit 120 calculates the predicted power generation amount of each of the small hydroelectric generators 10a to 10n based on accompanying information or the like according to a predetermined calculation formula (calculation formula). The structure to be taken is taken. The power supply system according to the fourth embodiment is characterized in that a prediction with higher accuracy is realized by providing a configuration for updating the calculation formula as necessary.

  FIG. 8 is a block diagram illustrating a configuration of a supply power prediction system 400 according to the fourth embodiment. The supply power prediction system 400 includes a data management unit 110, a supply power prediction unit 120, a calculation formula storage unit 410, and a calculation formula update unit 420.

  The calculation formula storage unit 410 stores a calculation formula used by the supply power prediction unit 120 to predict the power generation amount in each of the small hydroelectric generators 10a to 10n. FIG. 9 shows an example of a calculation formula for each small hydroelectric generator stored in the calculation formula storage unit 410. The calculation formula represents a relational expression between the predicted power generation amount and the accompanying information in the small hydroelectric generator. Specifically, the calculation formula is a predetermined program, and the calculation formula storage unit 410 stores the power generation amount prediction program.

  Since the power generation amount in each small hydroelectric generator is correlated with predetermined accompanying information, it can be expressed by a function using the accompanying information as a parameter. The calculation formula storage unit 410 stores calculation formulas Pa to Pn of the predicted power generation amount generated by each small hydroelectric generator.

  For example, in FIG. 9, the calculation formula Pa for the predicted power generation amount in the small hydroelectric generator 10a installed in the rainwater drainage channel is the weather (X1), temperature (X2), and humidity (X3) in the installation area of the generator. , The daylight hours (X4), and precipitation (X5) as variables. On the other hand, the calculation formula Pb of the predicted power generation amount in the small hydroelectric generator 10b installed in the irrigation channel is, in addition to X1 to X5, the cultivation schedule (W1) in the cultivated land connected to the irrigation channel in which the generator is installed, It is expressed by a function having the cultivated area (W2) and the watering pattern (W3) by cultivated crop as parameters.

  In addition to the above X1 to X5, the calculation formula for the predicted power generation amount in the small hydroelectric generator 10c installed in the collective housing drainage ditch is the home rate by time zone in the collective housing in which the generator is installed ( Z1), life pattern (Z2), normal water usage (Z3), and normal sewage usage (Z4) are parameters. In addition to the above X1 to X5, the calculation formula of the predicted power generation amount in the small hydroelectric generator 10n installed in the factory drainage channel is the operation rate (Y1) according to the time zone in the factory where the generator is installed. , And a function having the operation pattern (Y2), the normal water usage (Y3), and the normal sewage usage (Y4) as parameters.

  Each parameter described above is managed by the accompanying information management unit 112 collecting it from each information source and storing it in the database. The supplied power prediction unit 120 reads out a calculation formula for each small hydroelectric generator that predicts the amount of power generation from the calculation formula storage unit 410, and acquires the value of the parameter specified in the calculation formula from the accompanying information management unit 112. Then, the predicted power generation amount in the generator is calculated.

  In addition, when the value of the parameter at the prediction target date / time is not collected by the accompanying information management unit 112, the same parameter at the past date / time may be substituted, or a default value may be substituted. The power supply predicting unit 120 calculates the total predicted power generation amount in each small hydroelectric generator calculated using the above calculation formula as a prediction result of the power supply amount in the target range.

  The calculation formula update unit 320 updates the calculation formula stored in the calculation formula storage unit 310 at a predetermined frequency. For example, the calculation formula update unit 320 updates the calculation formula so that the difference between the predicted power generation amount calculated by the supplied power prediction unit 120 and the actual power generation amount collected by the power generation status data management unit 111 is reduced. The calculation formula update unit 320 stores the updated calculation formula in the calculation formula storage unit 310 so that the calculation formula storage unit 310 newly stores the calculation formula updated by the calculation formula update unit 320.

  As described above, according to the supply power prediction system 400 according to the fourth embodiment, the calculation formula for predicting the power generation amount in each small hydroelectric generator is stored and managed. Further, the calculation formula is modified so that the difference between the actual power generation amount and the predicted power generation amount falls within a predetermined range. According to this configuration, for example, even when the actual power generation amount changes due to aging of the generator or changes in the water source status, the calculation formula used for prediction is updated, so that prediction can always be performed with high accuracy. It becomes.

  The supply power prediction system 400 may additionally include the functions described in the second and third embodiments. FIG. 10 is a flowchart showing an example of the flow of prediction processing in such a power supply prediction system 400.

  The supply power prediction unit 120 determines whether a condition for newly predicting supply power is input from the condition input unit 310 (step S101). Here, it is assumed that a target range to be predicted and a target date and time are input as the condition. If no condition is input, the process waits until the condition is newly input.

  On the other hand, when the condition is input, the supplied power prediction unit 120 accesses the small hydroelectric generator information management unit 113 and extracts the small hydroelectric generator existing in the target range included in the condition input in step S101. (Step S102). Next, the supplied power prediction unit 120 selects one small hydroelectric generator from the extracted small hydroelectric generators (step S103).

  The supplied power prediction unit 120 accesses the power generation status data management unit 111, and reads data indicating the current power generation amount of the small hydroelectric generator selected in step S103 (step S104). Subsequently, the supplied power prediction unit 120 accesses the calculation formula storage unit 410 and reads the calculation formula for power generation amount prediction in the selected small hydroelectric generator (step S105). Subsequently, the supplied power prediction unit 120 accesses the incidental information management unit 112 and reads incidental information indicated by the calculation formula for power generation amount prediction in the selected small hydroelectric generator (step S106).

  The supplied power prediction unit 120 calculates the predicted power generation amount at the target date and time in the small hydroelectric generator selected in step S103 based on the current power generation amount, calculation formula, and attached information read in steps S104 to S106 ( Step S107).

  Next, the power supply predicting unit 120 calculates the final predicted power generation amount by accessing the non-occurrence state database and performing correction based on information regarding the non-occurrence state such as the power generation stoppage occurrence probability in the small hydroelectric generator. (Step S108), and the corrected predicted power generation amount is stored in the memory (Step S109). Note that when the calculation formula update unit 420 updates the calculation formula appropriately after storing the power generation stoppage occurrence probability and stores it in the calculation formula storage unit 410, step S107 can be skipped.

  Next, the supply power prediction unit 120 determines whether calculation of the predicted power generation amount has been completed for all the small hydroelectric generators extracted in step S102 (step S110). If not completed, the next small hydroelectric generator is selected from the extracted small hydroelectric generators (step S111), and the process returns to step S104 to continue the calculation process.

  On the other hand, as a result of the determination in step S110, when the calculation of the predicted power generation amount has been completed for all the small hydroelectric generators extracted in step S102, the predicted power generation amount stored in the memory in step S109. The sum is calculated (step S112). The power supply prediction unit 120 outputs the calculated sum as the predicted power supply amount of small hydropower generation in the target range specified by the condition, and ends the series of prediction processes.

  It should be noted that what time interval is used for prediction at the target date and time may be input as a condition. The supplied power prediction unit 120 can predict the transition of the supplied power amount by deriving the input supplied power amount for each time interval.

  The above-described supply power prediction system 400 analyzes various data managed by the data management unit 110, such as the power generation impossible state calculation unit 210 and the calculation formula update unit 420, and calculates the predicted supply power amount in the supply power prediction unit 120. A configuration for updating parameters used in the calculation process is provided. With this configuration, it is possible to maintain the accuracy of power generation prediction in a small hydroelectric generator that is easily affected by a failure or a change in external conditions.

<Embodiment 5>
The power supply adjustment system according to the fifth embodiment performs power adjustment based on the prediction result of the power supply amount from the small hydroelectric power generation obtained by the power supply prediction system shown in the first to fourth embodiments. It is characterized by the fact that it is possible to grasp the economic and environmental characteristics of a certain range of power usage.

  FIG. 11 is a block diagram illustrating a configuration of a supply power adjustment system 500 according to the fifth embodiment. The power supply adjustment system 500 includes a data storage unit 110, a power supply prediction unit 120, a cost database (cost DB) 510, an environmental database (environmental DB) 520, and a power trading amount determination unit 530. .

  The cost DB 510 stores and manages data related to the history of power charges outside the grid for which the date and time is determined. The cost DB 510 stores information used for cost calculation, for example, information related to the price per kWh (hereinafter referred to as power generation unit price) of each source of natural energy and grid power used for cost calculation.

  The environmental DB 520 stores and manages data related to the history of discharge of environmentally hazardous substances such as CO2 outside the grid. In the environmental DB 520, information used for environmental load calculation, for example, each of natural energy and grid power used for calculating CO2 emissions (nuclear power, hydropower, thermal power, geothermal, natural energy (solar / thermal power generation, wind power generation) Etc.)) and the like, the information regarding the CO2 emission amount per kWh (hereinafter referred to as CO2 emission basic unit) is stored.

  The power trading amount determination unit 530 determines the power trading amount from outside the grid based on the prediction result of the supplied power amount in the small hydroelectric power generation in the predetermined grid predicted by the supply power prediction unit 120. Here, the power trading amount determination unit 530 finally refers to the data related to the power charges outside the grid managed by the cost DB 510 and the data related to the environmental information outside the grid managed by the environmentality D520. Determine the amount of electricity traded from outside the grid.

  FIG. 12 is a block diagram illustrating a specific configuration of the power trading amount determination unit 530. The power trading amount determination unit 530 includes a demand collection unit 531 that collects data related to the demand situation in the grid, and the hydropower-derived power in the grid and the demand in the grid based on the prediction data from the supply power prediction unit 120. A power supply-demand difference calculation unit 532 that calculates an imbalance.

  The power supply / demand difference calculation unit 532 compares the power supply amount in the grid obtained by the power supply prediction unit 120 with the data regarding the demand situation collected by the demand collection unit 531, and the power supply amount> the power demand amount. In some cases, it is determined that surplus power is sold outside the grid. Conversely, if the amount of supplied power is less than the amount of power for demand, it is determined to purchase the insufficient power.

  Further, the power supply / demand difference calculation unit 532 determines to use small hydroelectric power generation when the purchase price of electric power <the sale price of electric power. On the other hand, when the power selling price is smaller than the purchase price, it is determined that the power obtained by the small hydroelectric power generation is sold outside the grid.

  The values managed in the cost DB 510 and the environmental DB 520 are affected by the fuel cost, the power supply configuration, and the operation plan. Therefore, it is possible to input related information online and make corrections. Generally, when the supply exceeds the demand, the surplus is sold to the grid, and when the demand exceeds the supply, the shortage is purchased from the outside. In this case, for example, when the power purchase price per kWh exceeds the purchase price of power from small hydroelectric power generation, it is advantageous in terms of cost to use power from small hydroelectric power generation.

  Further, when the purchase price per kWh is higher than the purchase price, it is possible to increase sales by selling surplus power. However, since hydroelectric power is usually smaller than the CO2 emission intensity of the entire grid, this is not the case when priority is given to reducing environmental impact. The power supply / demand difference calculation unit 532 calculates the amount of power purchased and the amount of power sold according to each situation.

  The power trading amount determining unit 530 includes a cost presenting unit 533 and an environmental load emitting amount presenting unit 534 for presenting the cost of a certain period and the numerical value of the environmental load discharging amount in the process of buying and selling. Here, since the cost and the environmental load discharge amount change, the difference between the cost and the environmental load when the power is sold or purchased outside reflecting the change is displayed. An arbitrary range such as a time unit, a daily unit, or a monthly unit can be specified for a certain period.

<Embodiment 6>
The power supply adjustment system according to the sixth embodiment is characterized in that it is provided with a power storage facility and maximizes economic efficiency and environmental performance associated with the use of power.

  FIG. 13 is a block diagram illustrating a configuration of a supply power adjustment system 600 according to the sixth embodiment. The supplied power adjustment system 600 includes a stored power amount determination unit 610 that determines a stored power amount for a corresponding date and time. Based on the cost information held by the cost DB 510 and the environmental information held by the environmental DB 520, the stored electric energy determination unit 610 determines an economical and environmentally optimal storage method according to a predetermined determination algorithm. The cost DB 510 and the environmental DB 520 also include data related to additional costs and additional environmental loads due to storage batteries, respectively.

  FIG. 14 is a block diagram illustrating a specific configuration of the stored power amount determination unit 610. The stored power amount determination unit 610 includes a storage / discharge amount calculation unit 611, a storage capacity detection unit 612, and a storage / discharge operation determination unit 613.

  The storage / discharge amount calculation unit 611 calculates the storage / discharge amount in the power storage device (storage battery) based on the information from the power supply / demand difference calculation unit 531.

  The storage capacity detection unit 612 detects the current storage capacity of the storage battery, and checks whether the storage calculated by the storage / discharge amount calculation unit 611 is possible in the storage battery. The storage / discharge operation determination unit 613 determines the operation of storage / discharge in the storage battery based on these pieces of information.

  Generally, when the power supply exceeds the power demand, after the surplus is stored in the battery, the surplus can be sold to the grid. Further, when the power demand exceeds the power supply and the battery stores the power, the shortage is discharged from the storage battery and the further shortage is purchased from the outside.

  At this time, for example, when the purchased power price per kWh exceeds the purchase price that offsets the price of the small hydraulic power storage, it is advantageous in terms of cost to use the small hydraulic power. However, even if the electric power derived from hydropower is taken into account, the amount of electricity stored is usually smaller than the CO2 emission basic unit of the entire grid. Therefore, this is not the case when priority is given to reducing the environmental load.

  The storage / discharge amount calculation unit 611 calculates the amount of power purchased and the amount of power sold according to each situation. In the process of buying and selling, there is a stored power amount cost presenting unit 614 and a stored power amount environmental load presenting unit 615 that present the numerical value of a certain period of cost and environmental load discharge amount, respectively. Here, since the cost and the environmental load emission amount change, the cost presentation unit 614 and the environmental load emission presentation unit 615 reflect these changes and do not consider the case where power is sold or purchased outside. The difference between the cost and the environmental load is displayed. The range designation for a certain period is the same as in the fifth embodiment.

  Note that the power trading amount determination unit 530 may include the functions of the stored power amount determination unit 610. In this case, the power trading amount determination unit 530 performs a process of determining whether necessary power is discharged from the storage battery or purchased from outside the grid based on an algorithm that optimizes economy or environmental performance. . The determination process is executed with reference to each information stored and managed by the cost DB 510 and the environmental DB 520.

<Embodiment 7>
In the first to sixth embodiments, by having a small hydroelectric generation integrated grasp system that grasps data of a plurality of supply power prediction systems in an integrated manner, it is possible to grasp the entire amount of power supplied by small hydropower generation within a limited range. Is possible.

  FIG. 15 is a block diagram illustrating a configuration of a small hydropower generation integrated grasping system 700 according to the seventh embodiment. This system includes a small hydropower generation integrated grasping system 700 that aggregates and analyzes prediction data from each of the supply power prediction systems 100-1 to 100-3, a cost DB 510, and an environmental DB 520. The cost DB 510 and the environmental DB 520 have the same functions as the DB described in the fifth embodiment.

  The small hydroelectric power generation integrated grasping system 700 can be connected to a higher-level system to send data on the amount of power generated by the small hydropower generation in the target range and use it as reference data for power dependence when demand is tight. To do. At this time, it is also possible to refer to past trends regarding the power sale status. Furthermore, based on the data from the environment DB 520, it is possible to simulate the exchange of electric power so as to minimize the CO2 emission amount.

<Other embodiments>
The present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments as they are, and can be embodied by modifying the constituent elements without departing from the scope of the invention in the implementation stage. In addition, various inventions can be formed by appropriately combining a plurality of components disclosed in the embodiment. For example, some components may be deleted from all the components shown in the embodiment. Furthermore, constituent elements over different embodiments may be appropriately combined.

  A supply power prediction system and a power supply adjustment system are installed, and the functioning target range varies depending on the scale of the area. Basically, a supply power adjustment system that performs power adjustment through power demand management and supply management is installed in a distribution unit. However, when the user who uses this power supply adjustment system is a general consumer, it may be installed in units of communities. In addition, when the user is a large-scale consumer such as a large-scale commercial facility or a public facility such as a school or hospital, it is preferable that the user is installed on a per-customer basis.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 10 Small hydroelectric generator 100 Supply power prediction system 110 Data management part 111 Power generation condition data management part 112 Accompanying information management part 113 Small hydroelectric generator information management part 120 Supply power prediction part 200 Supply power prediction system 210 Power generation impossible state calculation part 220 Power generation disabled database
300 Supply Power Prediction System 310 Condition Input Unit 320 Prediction Result Presentation Unit 400 Supply Power Prediction System 410 Calculation Formula Storage Unit (Relational Formula Storage Unit)
420 Calculation formula update unit (relational formula update unit)
500 Supply power adjustment system 510 Cost DB
520 Environmental DB 530 Electricity trading amount determination unit 521 Demand collection unit 532 Electricity supply / demand difference calculation unit 533 Electricity trading amount cost presentation unit 533 Electricity trading amount environmental load presentation unit 600 Supply power adjustment system 610 Electricity trading amount determination unit 611 Energy storage / discharge amount Calculation unit 612 Storage capacity detection unit 613 Storage / discharge amount determination unit 614 Storage power amount cost presentation unit 615 Storage power amount environmental load presentation unit

Claims (9)

A power generation status data management unit for managing data on the power generation status of each small hydroelectric generator,
An accompanying information management unit for managing multiple types of accompanying information having a correlation with the power generation amount in the small hydroelectric generator;
Based on the data on the power generation status and the accompanying information, a supply power prediction unit that performs a process of predicting the transition of the supply power amount of the small hydropower generation in the target range;
A power supply prediction system comprising: The supply power prediction unit calculates a predicted power generation amount in each small hydroelectric generator based on the data on the power generation status and the accompanying information, and the prediction in a plurality of small water power generators included in the target range Predicting the transition of the amount of power supplied by small hydropower generation in the target range by calculating the total amount of power generation,
The supply power prediction system according to claim 1. By comparing the actual power generation amount in each small hydroelectric generator managed by the power generation status data management unit with the predicted power generation amount in the small hydropower generator calculated by the supply power prediction unit, it is impossible to generate power A power generation disabled state calculation unit for obtaining a probability of occurrence of a situation or a power generation disabled state;
A power generation disabled state storage unit that stores information related to a situation where the power generation disabled state calculated by the power generation disabled state calculation unit or a probability that a power generation disabled state occurs;
Further comprising
The power supply predicting unit predicts a change in power supply amount of the small hydroelectric power generation after performing correction based on information related to the power generation disabled state stored in the power generation disabled state storage unit. Item 3. The power supply prediction system according to Item 2. A condition input unit for inputting a target date and time or a target range for performing prediction of the power supply amount as a prediction condition;
A prediction result presentation unit that presents a prediction result of the amount of power supplied in the target date and time or target range input in the condition input unit;
The supply power prediction system according to any one of claims 1 to 3, further comprising: A relational expression storage unit for storing a relational expression between the predicted power generation amount and the accompanying information in each small hydroelectric generator;
The supply power prediction unit calculates the predicted power generation amount based on a relational expression related to a small hydroelectric machine to be predicted and the accompanying information,
The power supply prediction system according to any one of claims 2 to 4. A relational expression updating unit that updates the relational expression so that a difference between a predicted power generation amount in the predetermined small hydroelectric generator calculated by the power supply prediction unit and an actual power generation amount in the small hydroelectric generator is reduced; ,
The supply power prediction system according to claim 5, wherein the relational expression storage unit newly stores the relational expression updated by the relational expression update unit. The accompanying information includes at least information on the climate, information on the factory operation status, and information on the cultivation / water use status,
The relational expression is represented by an expression using as a variable information having a correlation with the power generation amount in each small hydroelectric generator among a plurality of types of information included in the accompanying information. The supply power prediction system according to 5 or 6. A power generation status data management unit for managing data on the power generation status of each small hydroelectric generator,
An accompanying information management unit for managing multiple types of accompanying information having a correlation with the power generation amount in the small hydroelectric generator;
Based on the data on the power generation status and the accompanying information, a supply power prediction unit that performs a process of predicting the transition of the supply power amount of small hydropower generation in a predetermined grid;
A cost database unit that holds data relating to power charges outside the grid at the date and time pertaining to the prediction;
An environmental database section holding data on environmental information outside the grid;
Based on the predicted power supply amount, the power charge outside the grid, and the environmental information outside the grid, a power trading amount determination unit that performs processing to determine the power trading amount from outside the grid;
Supply power adjustment system comprising. Further comprising a power storage device for storing the electric power generated by the small hydroelectric generator,
The power trading amount determination unit determines whether to discharge necessary power from the power storage device or to purchase from outside the grid based on an algorithm that optimizes economy or environmental characteristics. The small hydropower adjustment system according to claim 8.

Images