JP2012043853A - Method for estimating power generation output of photovoltaic power generation facility - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a method for estimating power generation output, which is capable of estimating power generation output of a photovoltaic power generation facility.SOLUTION: Typical solar radiation value data in fine weather at a meteorological observation point in the vicinity of an installation position of the photovoltaic power generation facility and actual sunshine duration per unit time observed at the meteorological observation point are acquired, and an estimated power generation output value of the photovoltaic power generation facility is calculated on the basis of an estimated solar radiation value at the installation position of the photovoltaic power generation facility, which is found from a value obtained by multiplying the typical solar radiation value data in fine weather by a ratio representing a rate of the actual sunshine duration per unit time.

Description

  The present invention relates to a power generation output estimation method for estimating power generation outputs of a plurality of photovoltaic power generation facilities installed over a wide area.

  In order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, solar power generation facilities using natural energy, especially solar energy, are becoming more popular. Solar power generation equipment is expected to be installed in large quantities in the future, with the most installed form being installed on the roof of a single-family house. The electric power generated by the solar power generation equipment of each house is consumed at each home, and surplus power of solar power generation that cannot be consumed at home is sent to the power company's power transmission network. In addition, if the power consumed in each household is not enough for the power generated by the solar power generation equipment in each household, the shortage is compensated by the power supplied from the power company's power grid.

  Solar power generation equipment installed in household units is smaller than conventional power generators such as thermal power generators and nuclear power generators (for example, one thermal power generator is 60 to 1 million kW). On the other hand, solar power generators are about 3 to 4 kW per household), and if they are introduced in large quantities in the future, the total power generation output is considered to account for a non-negligible proportion of power demand.

  The electric power company currently grasps the outline of the current power demand (that is, the required power generation output) from the total power generation (total output of generator and total power flow in the region), and based on this, In addition, by adjusting the power generation output of the thermal power generator, the power supply and demand is adjusted to meet the instantaneous power demand.

  When using the total power generated and received as the current power demand, the power generated by the solar power generation equipment installed in each home is consumed by each home, so this solar power generation is the actual demand. Nevertheless, since it is not included in the total power transmission and reception, it is understood as a decrease in power demand, and the true power demand (the total power generated and received by each household's solar power generation facility Total) including consumption at home cannot be grasped.

  In particular, solar power generation equipment is a fluctuating power source whose power generation output changes depending on weather conditions and the uncertainty of power generation output is high. When the output fluctuates greatly due to the change of weather from sunny weather to cloudy weather (or vice versa), there will be a great increase or decrease in demand for the grid. If the current power output of the solar power generation facility cannot be grasped, it is difficult to assume the true power demand including this increase and decrease, and the systematic plan such as how to configure the supply capacity of the main system In addition, there is a concern that efficient supply and demand operations will become difficult.

  Therefore, in order to grasp the true power demand, it is important to measure and collect information on the output generated by the photovoltaic power generation equipment installed in each household.

  For wind power generation equipment that is the same variable power source as the solar power generation equipment, a method has been proposed in which the power generation output is collected in real time and the prediction accuracy is improved using the actual measurement data (Non-patent Document 1, Patent Document 1). ). In the case of wind power generation facilities, a wind farm with an output of tens of thousands kW per point is formed and connected to one point, and the number of points is about several tens. It is possible to acquire the power generation output in real time.

“Prediction of wind power generation output by meteorological model”, Proceedings of the 28th Symposium on Wind Energy Utilization, p41, (Shigero Enomoto, November 2006)

JP 2007-233639 A

  On the other hand, the size of each photovoltaic power generation facility is extremely small, and the number of installation locations is extensive and enormous. Therefore, it is difficult to measure and collect the power generation output of all photovoltaic power generation facilities in real time. . It has also been proposed to collect power generation output from solar power generation facilities by means of communication, but infrastructure development regarding the communication function of solar power generation facilities has not progressed, and communication from all solar power generation facilities has been promoted. When collecting power generation output data, it is difficult to grasp the power generation output with real-time performance comparable to that of existing power sources due to factors such as transmission delay and data processing time. is there.

  Therefore, an object of the present invention is to develop a method for accurately estimating the total power generation output of a large number of photovoltaic power generation facilities installed in a wide range by a data processing that is small enough to enable real-time processing. That is, an object of the present invention is to provide a power generation output estimation method capable of estimating power generation outputs of a plurality of photovoltaic power generation facilities arranged over a wide area. The power generation output estimation result obtained by this method can be used as an alternative to the current output of photovoltaic power generation, which is difficult to obtain, and thus the prediction accuracy of output prediction proposed in Non-Patent Document 1 and Patent Document 1 It is also possible to improve.

  In order to achieve the above object, the power generation output estimation method according to claim 1 is a power generation output estimation method for estimating the power generation output of a solar power generation facility, in a clear weather at a weather observation point near the installation position of the solar power generation facility. A ratio that represents the ratio of the typical solar radiation data per unit time and the typical solar radiation data at the weather observation point and the typical solar radiation data at the weather observation point. The power generation output estimated value of the photovoltaic power generation facility is calculated based on the estimated amount of solar radiation of the installation position of the photovoltaic power generation facility obtained from the multiplication value.

The power generation output estimation method according to claim 2 is a method for estimating the power generation output of a plurality of photovoltaic power generation facilities installed in a predetermined area including a plurality of weather observation points.
Obtain the typical solar radiation data at the weather stations and the sunshine hours per unit time observed at each station.
Obtain the total maximum output for each weather observation point of at least one photovoltaic power generation facility installed in the neighborhood area of each weather observation point,
Estimated solar radiation amount of the installation position of the solar power generation facility obtained from a product of representative solar radiation amount data at each weather observation point in the fine weather and a ratio representing a ratio of the sunshine hours per unit time, and weather Using the total maximum output for each observation point, calculate the power generation output estimated value of the photovoltaic power generation facility in each neighboring area, and add the power generation output estimated value for each area to install in the predetermined area The power generation output estimated value of the plurality of the plurality of photovoltaic power generation facilities is calculated.

  According to the present invention, it is possible to accurately estimate the power generation output estimated value of the photovoltaic power generation facility with a small amount of calculation by using typical solar radiation amount data prepared in advance on a clear day and sunshine time data acquired from a weather observation point. It can be calculated well.

It is a figure which shows the structural example of the electric power generation output estimation apparatus in embodiment of this invention. The example of data stored in the fine weather solar radiation amount database DB1 is shown. The example of data stored in photovoltaic power generation equipment information database DB2 is shown. It is table | surface data which shows the numerical value of the amount of solar radiation data of the AMeDAS near the installation position of the equipment 1-3 at the time of fine weather. It is a graph of the electric power generation output estimated value and measured value of each installation 1-3. It is a graph of the total power generation output estimated value and total actual measurement value of the equipment 1-3.

  Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.

  The power generation output of a photovoltaic power generation facility depends on the amount of solar radiation at the installation location. Therefore, in the embodiment of the present invention, the estimated amount of solar radiation at each installation position of a large number of photovoltaic power generation facilities installed over a wide area is obtained using observation data of the observed sunshine hours, and the estimated amount of solar radiation is calculated. We propose a method for calculating the estimated power generation output of the solar power generation equipment by converting it into the power output of the solar power generation equipment. The estimated amount of solar radiation at a certain weather observation point is based on the measured value of the sunshine duration per unit time observed in the known amount of solar radiation at the meteorological observation point (hereinafter referred to as “sunlight amount in fine weather”). It can be obtained by multiplying the ratio.

  FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of a power generation output estimation apparatus that executes a power generation output estimation method according to an embodiment of the present invention. The power generation output estimation device includes a sunny day solar radiation amount data acquisition unit 12, a photovoltaic power generation facility information acquisition unit 14, an observation data acquisition unit 16, and a calculation unit 18. This power generation output estimation device can be realized by a general-purpose computer such as a personal computer, and the computer device executes a power generation output estimation process in the present embodiment by executing a computer readable computer program.

  The sunny day solar radiation amount data acquisition unit 12 includes a plurality of solar power generation facilities in a target area for estimating the power generation output of the solar power generation facility from a sunny day solar radiation amount database DB1 which is a storage means such as an internal storage device or an external storage medium of a computer. Acquire solar radiation data in sunny weather at meteorological observation points. The meteorological observation point is the location of AMeDAS that observes sunshine hours in the so-called AMeDAS (Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System), which is a regional meteorological observation system installed by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Sunlight hours have been observed at approximately 850 of AMeDAS currently installed in 1,300 locations nationwide. The clear sky solar radiation amount is an ideal solar radiation amount when it is clear all day at each meteorological observation point, and the clear sky solar radiation amount is prepared in advance as known data for each month from January to December. .

  FIG. 2 shows an example of data stored in the clear sky solar radiation database DB1, and as shown in FIG. 2 (a), the clear sky solar radiation database is the monthly clear sky solar radiation data for each weather observation point. Is stored. As an example, for the weather observation point a, the solar radiation data (a1 to a12) in fine weather for each month from January to December is stored. FIG. 2 (b) is a graph showing an example of sunny day solar radiation amount data. The clear sky solar radiation amount data per unit time (for example, 10 minutes) with respect to the time t within the daylighting time of the day. Is given as a numerical value of solar radiation. A specific numerical example of the sunny day solar radiation data is shown in FIG.

  The amount of solar radiation in fine weather can be obtained from, for example, standard meteorological / insolation data “METPV-3” of New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO). “METPV-3” is a standard weather / insolation database at the Meteorological Office: AMeDAS 836 (1990-2003), and can display standard insolation data on the designated month. In addition, “METPV-3” can obtain the horizontal solar radiation data such as the solar radiation amount on the designated month and day at each AMeDAS meteorological observation point, as well as the slope solar radiation amount of any azimuth and arbitrary inclination angle. In the present embodiment, the amount of solar radiation in fine weather is the amount of solar radiation with an inclination of 30 degrees southward in consideration of the actual installation direction and installation angle of the solar panel.

  From the solar radiation data of each day of the target month accumulated in “METPV-3”, representative ones that are sunny all day, have a good solar radiation curve shape and strong solar radiation intensity. Select one and use it as the amount of solar radiation in the target month. The clear sky solar radiation data may be obtained not only for each month but also for every arbitrary period unit such as a week unit, a day unit, or a seasonal unit (three months unit).

  The photovoltaic power generation facility information acquisition unit 14 acquires facility information of each photovoltaic power generation facility installed in the target area from the photovoltaic power generation facility information database DB2 which is a storage means such as an internal storage device or an external storage medium of a computer. To get.

  FIG. 3 shows an example of data stored in the photovoltaic power generation facility information database DB2. The facility information includes association information with each installation position (address or latitude / longitude information), maximum output (nominal maximum output), and nearby weather observation points. The target area is divided into neighborhood areas of each weather observation point according to the address or the distance from the weather observation point, and the weather observation point associated with the photovoltaic power generation facility is determined for each neighborhood area.

  As mentioned above, AMeDAS, which observes sunshine hours, is installed at 850 locations nationwide, with an average interval of about 21 km. Therefore, the number of meteorological observation points is subdivided into approximately 20 locations per prefecture, and the distance between the installation location of each photovoltaic power generation facility and the nearest AMeDAS meteorological observation point is only about 10 km apart. , Observation data close to the meteorological conditions of the installation location of the photovoltaic power generation equipment can be obtained in the entire target area. By using the observation data at the AMeDAS meteorological observation point near the installation location as the sunshine time and temperature weather data of each photovoltaic power generation facility, high estimation accuracy can be obtained.

  The observation data acquisition unit 16 acquires real-time observation data including at least the sunshine duration and the temperature of each AMeDAS weather observation point from the Meteorological Agency, which is a weather observation data provider, through network communication such as the Internet. The sunshine time observed at AMeDAS is a 10-minute value, and observation data of the sunshine time for the previous 10 minutes can be acquired in seconds. In AMeDAS, the current temperature in units of 10 minutes, the maximum temperature for the previous 10 minutes, and the minimum temperature for the previous 10 minutes are observed in units of 0.1 ° C. Any one of the temperature observation values is appropriately selected and used.

The calculation unit 18 uses the meteorological data including sunny day solar radiation data, facility information, and sunshine hours to calculate the sum of the power generation output estimated values of all the solar power generation facilities installed in the target area as follows. Calculated by the arithmetic processing described. Specifically, using the solar radiation data, sunshine time data, and temperature data obtained in the above-described manner, the power generation output of the solar power generation facility at the rated output (R (kW)) near a certain weather observation point is estimated. The value P can be calculated by the following equation (1).
Estimated power generation output value P (kW) = sunny day solar radiation data (kW / m ² ) x sunshine duration function f x (correction coefficient r1-temperature coefficient g) (1)
The sunshine duration function f is a ratio that represents the ratio of the sunshine duration h per unit time H, and can have nonlinearity. In the case of a linear function, if the observation time 10 minutes is a unit time H, it can be expressed by h / H. By multiplying the sunny day solar radiation amount data by the sunshine duration function f, an estimated solar radiation amount of the installation position of the photovoltaic power generation facility can be obtained. For example, when the sunshine duration is 6 minutes, the sunshine duration function f is 6/10, which is 0.6.

The correction coefficient r1 is a coefficient for converting the solar radiation amount (kW / m ² ) into the power generation output (kW), and is a coefficient including the area of the solar panel per rated output and the conversion efficiency of the solar panel. For example, the correction coefficient r1 = the area (m ² ) of the solar panel × the conversion efficiency of the solar panel. The conversion efficiency of a solar panel is determined by the type of solar panel.

The temperature coefficient g is a coefficient for considering that the power generation efficiency of the solar panel depends on the temperature. For example, a polycrystalline silicon-based solar panel has a characteristic that the power generation efficiency decreases as the temperature rises. Therefore, a coefficient for reducing the power generation output estimated value P as the temperature rises is prepared. The temperature coefficient g is X (X is determined by the type of solar panel when the temperature rises by 1 ° C from the reference temperature, which is the basis for calculating the temperature loss. Assuming that a temperature loss of X = 0.1 / 20 (° C.) = 0.005) occurs because the output is reduced by about 10%, g = r1 × X × (outside air temperature−reference temperature)). The reference temperature is determined by the type of solar panel, and is set to an optimum value according to the material and characteristics of the solar panel. The temperature coefficient g is not limited to this, and can be determined by various methods such as a method using other arithmetic expressions and a method using statistical values. In the above formula (1), an example of an arithmetic expression for subtracting the temperature coefficient g from the correction coefficient r1 is shown, but the following expression (1 ′) that is multiplied by the temperature coefficient g ′ is also used. Good.
Power generation output estimated value P (kW) = sunny day solar radiation data (kW / m ² ) × sunshine duration function f × correction coefficient r1 × temperature coefficient g ′ (1 ′)
In this case, assuming that a temperature loss of X (X depends on the characteristics of the solar panel) occurs when the temperature coefficient g ′ increases by 1 ° C. from the reference temperature that defines the rated output of the solar panel, g ′ = (1 −X × (outside air temperature−reference temperature)).

As described above, in the facility information of FIG. 3, a weather observation point in the vicinity of each solar power generation facility is registered in advance, and the solar power generation facility having a total maximum output A (kW) at a certain weather observation point. Is installed, the total power generation output estimated value Pa can be calculated by the following equation (2).
Total power generation output estimated value Pa (kW) = P × A × correction coefficient r2 (2)
The correction coefficient r2 is an inequality rate for conversion into the power generation output of the total area near a certain weather observation point. The correction coefficient r2 is a coefficient that takes into account the difference in the installation angle of the solar panel and other losses (Y is about 0.9 to 0.95 if the loss of the conversion device of the photovoltaic power generation equipment and the like is considered. R2 = (1 / R) × Y.

Therefore, the total power output estimated value Pb of the photovoltaic power generation facility in the entire target area where the power generation output is estimated is the sum of the total power output estimated values Pa at all the weather observation points in the target area. ).
Total power generation output estimated value Pb = ΣPa (3)
The calculation unit 18 is a central processing unit of a computer, and executes the above-described formulas (1), (2) and (3) or an equivalent calculation process by executing a computer program within the target area. Calculate the total power output estimate for a large number of installed photovoltaic power generation facilities. Using the sunshine duration and temperature meteorological observation data observed at AMeDAS for each unit time (unit of 10 minutes), the current power output of the entire photovoltaic power generation facilities installed over a wide area is calculated by simple calculation processing. The estimated value can also be obtained with high accuracy in almost real time.

  The inventors conducted a comparative experiment between the calculated power generation output estimated value and the actual power generation output in order to confirm the effectiveness of the power generation output estimated value calculated by the above-described method. The experiment compares the output value of the solar power generation facility measured by the applicant in the past with the estimated output value using meteorological data for the period corresponding to the actual measurement. Sendai, Koriyama, Niigata ) Estimated power generation output for the January, April, August, and October 1997 solar power generation facilities was obtained by the above calculation method and compared with the measured power output values.

  The installation position (latitude / longitude) of the photovoltaic power generation facility and the installation position (latitude / longitude) of AMeDAS near the installation position are as follows.

(Equipment 1)
Location: North latitude 38 degrees 18.6 minutes, East longitude 140 degrees 53.9 minutes
(1 of 4-5, Yaotome, Izumi-ku, Sendai City)
Neighboring Amedas: North latitude 38 degrees 15.7 minutes, East longitude 140 degrees 53.8 minutes (Miyagino-ku Olympics, Sendai City)
Distance between installation position and nearby AMeDAS position: Approximately 5.4km
Rated output: 10kW
(Equipment 2)
Location: North latitude 37 degrees 23.8 minutes, East longitude 140 degrees 22.6 minutes
(1-5 Hosonomachi, Koriyama City)
Neighboring Amedas: North latitude 37 degrees 22.1 minutes, East longitude 140 degrees 19.8 minutes (Koriyama City, Azumi Narita Higashimaruyama)
Distance between installation position and nearby AMeDAS position: Approximately 5.2km
Rated output: 10kW
(Equipment 3)
Location: North latitude 37 degrees 53.8 minutes, East longitude 139 degrees 1.2 minutes
(Niigata City Chuo-ku Amikawahara 664 222)
Neighboring Amedas: North latitude 37 degrees 53.3 minutes, east longitude 139 degrees 2.9 minutes (Niogata City Chuo-ku Meike Minami)
Distance between installation position and nearby AMeDAS position: Approximately 2.6km
Rated output: 10kW
FIG. 4 is table data showing numerical values of AMeDAS sunny day solar radiation data in the vicinity of the installation position of the equipment 1-3. The data in FIG. 4 is obtained from “METPV-3”, and is selected from the solar radiation data for each day of January 1997 at the AMeDAS observation point near the installation location of facilities 1, 2 and 3, respectively. It is the solar radiation data in January 1997. Since the sunny day solar radiation amount data in FIG. 4 is 1 hour value data, for example, 10 minute value data is obtained by linear interpolation between the 1 hour value data for convenience, and the sunshine duration is 10 minutes value. Using the data, the estimated power generation output every 10 minutes was obtained. Of course, the interpolation method is not limited to linear interpolation, and other methods such as nonlinear interpolation may be used.

  FIG. 5 is a graph of the power generation output estimated value and the actual measurement value of each of the facilities 1-3. 5 (a), (b), and (c) show the estimated power generation output (solid line) and actual measurement (dotted line: dotted line) for the predetermined period (7 days) in January 1997 in facilities 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Measured). FIG. 6 is a graph showing the sum of the power generation output estimation value and the actual measurement value of the equipment 1-3 shown in FIG.

  As an example, an example in which the power generation output estimated value (power generation output estimated value at 11:00 am on the first day) at the point Q in FIG.

Solar panel area of facility 1 = 103.7m ² (panel area per rated output)
Conversion efficiency of equipment 1 = 11.5%
Then,
The correction coefficient r1 in equation (1) is
^{r1 = 103.7 (m 2) ×} 11.5 (%) = 11.926 (m 2)
As required.

  The conversion efficiency of the solar panel is determined by the type of solar panel.

In addition, since the output of a polycrystalline silicon panel decreases by about 10% for a temperature increase of 20 ° C, the temperature loss per 1 ° C increase in outside air temperature is
11.926 (m ² ) × 10 (%) / 20 (℃) ＝ 0.0596 (m ² / ℃)
It is expressed. Assuming that the reference temperature for calculating temperature loss is -20 ° C, the temperature coefficient g in equation (1) is
g = 0.0596 (m ² / ° C) x (outside temperature-(-20)) (° C)
It can be expressed as.
And the clear solar radiation amount at the point Q is shown in Fig. 4, clear solar radiation amount = 805/1000 = 0.805 (kW / m ² )
The measured sunshine duration and temperature are
Sunshine duration = 10 minutes (sunshine duration function f = 10/10 = 1)
Air temperature = 1.5 ℃
Then, the power generation output estimate P at point Q is
P = 0.805 × 1 × (11.926-0.0596 × (1.5 + 20)) = 8.568 (kW)
As required. By the same calculation, it is possible to obtain the power generation output estimated values at other times of the facility 1 and the power generation output estimated values at the respective times of the facilities 2 and 3.

  Table 1 shows some of the estimated output values of facilities 1 to 3.

  In FIG. 5, the comparison between the power generation output estimated value and the actual measured value shows that the sunshine duration is compared with the time zone in which the sunshine duration is relatively long when the individual output estimated values of the respective equipments 1, 2 and 3 are viewed. However, the correlation coefficient between the estimated power generation value and the actual measurement value is about 0.84 to 0.92 (Fig. 5 (a): 0.92). 5 (b): 0.93 and FIG. 5 (c): 0.84), it was confirmed that the power generation output can be estimated with relatively high accuracy. The same comparative study was conducted for other months with different amounts of solar radiation (April 1997, August 1997, October 1997), which was almost the same as the comparative experiment in January 1997. The estimation result by accuracy was obtained.

  In addition, since the correlation between the sunshine hours between the installation positions is considered to be low, by summing the power generation output estimates at the three locations, the error is smoothed and the correlation coefficient is 0.95 as seen in FIG. As a result, the estimation accuracy improved. Therefore, in the actual estimated value calculation process, it is expected that the estimation accuracy will be further improved by adding the power generation output estimated values at a larger number of weather observation points.

If the output of each area is estimated based on the output of each facility obtained as described above, equation (2) is applied. For example, if the total rated output of the photovoltaic power generation facilities in the area represented by facility 1 is 1000 kW, the estimated output value of the area at point Q is
A = 1000kW
Correction coefficient r2 = (1 / R) × Y = (1/10) × 0.95 = 0.095
(R is rated output 10kW of equipment 1, Y is considered about 5% loss such as conversion loss)
Then,
Total power output estimated value Pa (kW) = P × A × correction coefficient r2 = 8.568 × 1000 × 0.095 = 813.96 kW
Is required.

  It should be noted that various correction / learning processes for further improving the accuracy may be applied to the power generation output estimated value obtained by the above calculation. For example, the actual power generation output of each photovoltaic power generation facility is acquired and collected later as actual data, necessary statistical analysis processing is performed, and the processing result is reflected in an error from the power generation output estimation value.

  In this embodiment, the solar radiation amount data in fine weather was obtained from past observation data using NEDO standard weather and solar radiation data “METPV-3”. For example, the theoretical value of the solar radiation amount in fine weather was calculated. It can also be obtained by using a theoretical formula such as the so-called Berlage formula.

  12: Solar radiation data acquisition unit in fine weather, 14: Solar power generation facility information acquisition unit, 16: Observation data acquisition unit, 18: Calculation unit

Claims (2)

In the power generation output estimation method for estimating the power generation output of solar power generation equipment,
Acquire typical solar radiation data at the weather observation point near the installation position of the solar power generation facility and the sunshine time per unit time observed at the weather observation point,
The solar power generation facility based on the estimated solar radiation amount of the installation position of the solar power generation facility obtained from a multiplication value of representative solar radiation amount data in the fine weather and a ratio representing the ratio of the sunshine hours per unit time A power generation output estimation method characterized by calculating a power generation output estimation value. In a method for estimating power generation output of a plurality of photovoltaic power generation facilities installed in a predetermined area including a plurality of weather observation points,
Obtain the typical solar radiation data at the weather stations and the sunshine hours per unit time observed at each station.
Obtain the total maximum output for each weather observation point of at least one photovoltaic power generation facility installed in the neighborhood area of each weather observation point,
Estimated solar radiation amount of the installation position of the solar power generation facility obtained from a product of representative solar radiation amount data at each weather observation point in the fine weather and a ratio representing a ratio of the sunshine hours per unit time, and weather Using the total maximum output for each observation point, calculate the power generation output estimated value of the photovoltaic power generation facility in each neighboring area, and add the power generation output estimated value for each area to install in the predetermined area A power generation output estimation method characterized by calculating a power generation output estimation value of a plurality of all the photovoltaic power generation facilities.

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