JP2011203841A - Arrival time prediction system for circulating vehicle - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To predict arrival time at each user house of a vehicle circulating a plurality of user houses with high accuracy.SOLUTION: About a predetermined circulation route of the circulating vehicle 30, a standard required operation time between the respective user houses 20 and a standard stop time in each user house are set in an information processor 100, and the arrival time at each user house is predicted, and arrival scheduled time of the circulating vehicle at the user house of the day is corrected based on state information of the day of a user, and position information and time of the circulating vehicle.

Description

  The present invention enables a user to predict the arrival time of a traveling vehicle at each user's home when traveling between a welfare facility and a plurality of user's homes by a vehicle and picking up a user. The present invention relates to a system for reducing waiting time.

  As a prior art, a bus arrival notification system is known. This conventional system detects that a bus has entered a predetermined area set around the bus stop, and displays an indication of the approach of the bus on a display installed at the stop. By the way, recently, using GPS (Global Positioning Systems), it is possible to predict the arrival time at a predetermined notification point by grasping the current position and the passing time of a set point based on a predetermined route of the traveling bus. However, a system has been proposed in which when the patrol bus passes a notification point set by the user, the user is notified of that fact (see, for example, Patent Document 1).

JP 2004-265031 A

  According to the system disclosed in Patent Document 1, it is possible to predict the arrival time of a notification point (boarding position) set by the user to some extent from grasping the location information of the traveling bus and the operation route management system. However, since the time required for the getting-on / off operation at some getting-on / off positions on the operation route is not considered, there is a problem that the accuracy of the arrival prediction time is lacking. In addition, after the departure point of the notification point just before the user gets on, although the accuracy of predicting the arrival time at the boarding position where the user gets on is high, the user gets on board when the notification of the predicted time is received. There was also a risk of getting behind due to the time required to go to the position.

  The present invention has been made to solve such problems.

  In order to solve the above-mentioned problem, the invention according to claim 1 is the arrival of each traveling vehicle that visits a welfare facility and a plurality of user homes by a vehicle and picks up the user at each user home. It is a system for predicting time, and for a predetermined traveling route of the patrol vehicle, set a standard operation time between user homes and a stop time as standard at each user home, Operation information processing means for calculating the estimated arrival time of each patrol vehicle at each user's house, and communication means for obtaining information on the state of the user from the user's house side for the operation information processing means. And an operation status acquisition means for acquiring the position and time of the traveling vehicle and notifying the acquired information to the operation information processing means, wherein the operation information processing means comprises the communication means and the Operation status acquisition means Based on the information that is al notification, characterized in that it modifies the expected arrival time of the day of the user's home.

  According to the present invention, it is possible to accurately predict the arrival time of a traveling vehicle at a user's house. Therefore, when the user obtains this estimated time, the irritation of waiting for arrival is resolved, and preparations for boarding are made in accordance with the arrival time of the vehicle, enabling rapid boarding, and stopping time at the user's home ( Time required for boarding) can be shortened, and the operation of the traveling vehicle can be executed smoothly.

It is the conceptual diagram explaining the structure of one Example of the arrival time prediction system of the traveling vehicle which concerns on this invention. It is the block diagram explaining the structure and function of one Example of the information processing apparatus for operating this invention. It is a figure explaining the calculation method of the arrival time of a traveling vehicle. It is a figure explaining the calculation method which corrects an estimated arrival time in real time after the departure of a traveling vehicle. It is explanatory drawing of the various factors which affect the time required until boarding in a user's house. It is the figure which showed the performance of the day, and the result of the time taken until boarding about a certain user. It is a function related figure explaining the effect | action of this invention. It is explanatory drawing which extracted the main factor and boarding time which affect the time taken to board for the simplification of arithmetic processing.

  Hereinafter, an embodiment of the arrival time prediction system for a traveling vehicle according to the present invention will be described in detail with reference to FIGS. In these drawings, the same portions are denoted by the same reference numerals.

  FIG. 1 is a conceptual diagram illustrating the configuration of an embodiment of a traveling vehicle arrival time prediction system according to the present invention. As shown in FIG. 1, for example, a plurality of user homes 20A, 20B, 20C, 20D,... From a welfare facility 10 that provides day service, day care, etc. (hereinafter, it is not necessary to specify individual user homes) In this case, a description will be given with reference numeral 20.) A vehicle 30 such as a pick-up bus (hereinafter referred to as a patrol vehicle) is patroled, and the user is admitted to the welfare facility 10 for service and care. After completion, the user is sent from the welfare facility 10 to each user's home 20.

  In this case, if the estimated arrival time of the traveling vehicle 30 to each user's home 20 can be accurately grasped, the user may prepare for going out according to the arrival time of the traveling vehicle 30, for example, on a cold winter day. It is not necessary to wait for the arrival of the traveling vehicle 30 at the entrance from an early stage. Therefore, in the present invention, since information is exchanged between the welfare facility 10 and the user's home 20 and between the welfare facility 10 and the patrol vehicle 30 using the Internet, the public communication line network 200, etc., the welfare An information processing apparatus 100 is installed in the facility 10, a personal computer 21, a mobile phone 22, a fixed phone 23, and the like are arranged in the user's home 20, and a mobile phone 31 equipped with a GPS terminal or a GPS function in the patrol vehicle 30. It has. Further, the time from the arrival of the traveling vehicle 30 at the user's home 20 until the user gets in (the stopping time of the traveling vehicle 30 at the user's home 20) is set finely according to the state of the user. ing.

  Next, the configuration and function of the information processing apparatus 100 installed in the welfare facility 10 of the arrival time prediction system according to the present invention will be described with reference to the block diagram of FIG.

  As shown in FIG. 2, the information processing apparatus 100 includes a central processing unit 110 mainly composed of a computer for organically controlling the entire system based on various stored control programs, the position of the user's home 20, and the user. The data management unit 120 that manages various data relating to the state of the vehicle and data such as the operation route, current position, and speed of the traveling vehicle 30 and statistically analyzes past performance data for predicting the boarding time for each user Data analysis unit 130, rational data input / browsing control unit 140 for inputting administrative data and controlling browsing of management data, administrative data maintenance unit 150 for maintaining administrative data, and fraud to management data Unauthorized access monitoring / log management unit 160 for monitoring access and log management, authority information control for controlling authority information / And a processing section 170 or the like. The information processing apparatus 100 is connected to the Internet, the public communication line network 200, and the like via the data access interface 180, and exchanges information with the user's home 20 and the traveling vehicle 30.

  That is, as shown in FIG. 1, a personal computer 21, a mobile phone 22, a fixed phone 23, and the like are arranged in the user's home 20, and these are used to provide welfare facilities via the Internet and the public communication network 200. 10 information processing apparatuses 100 are accessed or a notification from the welfare facility 10 is received. Further, as shown in FIG. 1, the traveling vehicle 30 also includes a GPS terminal or a mobile phone 31 equipped with a GPS function, so that the current position and time of the traveling vehicle 30 can be grasped and the information can be used as a welfare facility. 10 information processing apparatuses 100.

  Next, a method of time prediction in the arrival time prediction system for a traveling vehicle according to the present invention will be described.

FIG. 3 illustrates a case in which, for example, when the traveling vehicle 30 departs from the welfare facility 10, for example, the time to arrive at the third user home 20 </ b> C is predicted. That is, the time T ₃ required for the traveling vehicle 30 to arrive at the third user home 20C after leaving the welfare facility 10 is the travel time required from the welfare facility 10 to the first user home 20A. The predicted value of T (R ₀ ) and the stop time T (W ₁ ) at the _first user's home 20A (this time can also be referred to as the time required for the user to get into the traveling vehicle 30). ), The predicted value of the traveling time T (R ₁ ) of the traveling vehicle 30 required from the first user home 20A to the second user home 20B, and the second user home 20B. Is the sum of the predicted value of the stop time T (W ₂ ) and the predicted value of the travel time T (R ₂ ) required from the second user's home 20B to the third user's home 20C.

In other words, it is the sum of the total travel time T (R) between the user homes 20 of the patrol vehicle 30 and the total stop time T (W) at each user home. time T ₃ to arrive at the eye of the user home 20C is also illustrated in FIG. 3 becomes as shown in equation 1. Accordingly, for example, the time T ₄ arriving at the fourth user's home 20D is equal to the stop time T (W ₃ ) at the third user's home 20C and four from the third user's home 20C. This can be obtained by adding the travel time T (R ₃ ) required until the user's home 20D. The same applies to the following, and the estimated arrival time of the traveling vehicle 30 at each user's home 20 can be known as a calculation result based on Equation 1.

These travel times T (R ₃ ) are set based on the distance and travel speed based on the travel route determined by the traveling vehicle 30 and the stop time T (W (W) at each user home 20. _{In 3} ), a standard time is set for each user in consideration of past results.

Next, a description will be given of how to predict the time when the traveling vehicle 30 arrives at a certain user's home 20 to get on the user and corrects the estimated arrival time at the subsequent user's home 20. 4, after starting a specialty th user home 20A, illustrates a case of predicting a time T ₃ to arrive example 3 specialty th user home 20C.

In this case, the travel time T (R ₀ ) required from the welfare facility 10 to the first user home 20A and the stop time T (W ₁ ) at the _first user home 20A are already determined. Therefore, the travel time T (R ₀ ) and the stop time T (W ₁ ) in Equation 1 are replaced with real time. Accordingly, the time T ₃ arriving at the third user home 20C is the travel time T (R ₀ ) required from the welfare facility 10 to the first user home 20A, which is real time, and the first home. Travel time required from the first user home 20A to the second user home 20B as a predicted value set as a standard time to the sum of the stop times T (W ₁ ) at the user home 20A T (R ₁ ) and travel time T (R ₂ ) required from the second user's house 20B to the third user's house 20C are added, and further the stop time at the second user's house 20B It is calculated as T (W ₂ ) added. When this is expressed by a mathematical expression, it is also shown in FIG. 4, but it is as shown in Expression 2, and the prediction accuracy is improved by the amount corrected in real time.

  As described above, in order to predict the arrival time of the traveling vehicle 30, the traveling time T (R) between the user's homes of the traveling vehicle 30 and the stopping time T (W) at each user's home are set. Based on the standard time, after the user has already boarded and the traveling vehicle 30 has left the user's home 20, the prediction time is corrected with the actual time required so far, thereby improving the prediction accuracy. To do.

  By the way, since the traveling time between the user's homes of the traveling vehicle 30 travels on a predetermined route, it is not so much deviated from the standard time set by the distance and traveling speed. However, as a certain situation, when a certain user suddenly cancels the use of the day, the traveling route of the traveling vehicle 30 is changed. Therefore, in such a case, the travel distance is corrected based on the travel route between user homes before and after the canceled user, and the estimated arrival time at the user home 20 after the canceled user is corrected.

  As another aspect, as shown in FIG. 5, there is a difference in time taken to get on board based on the state of the user in the user's home 20 that day. For example, whether the user always uses a wheelchair, uses a walking stick, requires family or helper assistance for walking, and the user's waiting area is the living room or the front door This also affects the time required for boarding. In addition, seasonal factors such as cold winter and hot summer, and weather factors such as sunny, cloudy, rainy, snowy and windy influences. In some cases, the user's internal state, such as being light and good, normal, or not feeling well, should be considered as one of the factors.

  It has been explained that the time required for the user to get on the patrol vehicle 30 picked up by the influence of these various factors is different. For example, regarding the past usage date of the user A, the situation of the day and the ride FIG. 6 shows the result of grasping the results of the time required to complete the process.

  These pieces of information are collected and accumulated for each user, and the information is statistically analyzed by the data analysis unit 130 of the information processing apparatus 100, so that each user is picked up according to the state of the day. It is possible to set a standard time required for boarding the traveling vehicle 30. Therefore, if there is no cancellation and cancellation of the day for each user, the personal state of the user such as the user's internal state, mode of walking, assistance state, waiting place, etc. The information processing device 100 of the welfare facility 10 is accessed and directly input via the Internet. Also, the weather and season of the day are entered at the welfare facility 10 side. As a result, the information processing apparatus 100 calculates the operation route of the traveling vehicle 30 on the day and the estimated arrival time at each user's home 20 and can check the result at each user's home 20.

  FIG. 7 is a function-related diagram illustrating a mechanism for collecting information between the welfare facility 10, each user home 20, and the traveling vehicle 30. For the information processing apparatus 100 of the welfare facility 10, a personal computer 21, a mobile phone 22, a fixed phone 23, etc. of each user's home 20, and a mobile phone 31 equipped with a GPS terminal or GPS function of the traveling vehicle 30 are connected to the Internet 200, etc. Further, an input unit 190 for inputting data on the welfare facility 10 side is arranged.

  Accordingly, whether or not there is cancellation from the user's home 20 and the status of the user on that day are input to the information processing apparatus 100, and information regarding the weather and season of the day is input from the input unit 190 to the information processing apparatus 100 on the welfare facility 10 side. Further, the current position, time, etc. as the operation status are appropriately supplied from the GPS terminal of the traveling vehicle 30 or the mobile phone 31 equipped with the GPS function. Based on these input information, the information processing apparatus 100 calculates the operation route of the traveling vehicle 30 on the day and the estimated arrival time at each user's home 20 as a calculation result and outputs the result. Based on the above, the calculation for correcting the predicted time is performed.

  Note that the position and time information as the operation status of the traveling vehicle 30 is desirably input to the information processing apparatus 100 when leaving the user's home 20, and this input is the driver of the traveling vehicle 30. The mobile phone 31 may be operated and input, or information may be automatically transmitted from the GPS terminal of the traveling vehicle 30 to the information processing apparatus 100.

  If the information processing apparatus 100 cannot be directly accessed from the user's home 20, the welfare facility 10 is notified of necessary information using the mobile phone 22 or the fixed telephone 23, and the staff of the welfare facility 10 inputs the information to the input unit 190. The information may be input to the information processing apparatus 100 and the result may be communicated from the welfare facility 10 to the user's home 20 using the mobile phone 22 or the fixed phone 23. Furthermore, information input at the user's home 20 may not be necessarily performed by the user himself / herself, but may be performed by an authorized person such as a family member or a helper. The authority information control / management unit 170 determines whether the input user has authority. It is confirmed.

And when there is no information provision about the state of the user of the day from the user's home 20, using the standard boarding time of the user based on the past performance data analyzed by the data analysis unit 130, Assume that the arrival time is predicted.

  By the way, according to the past results of the user A shown in FIG. 6, it seems that the waiting place of the user A on the day has a great influence on the boarding time. FIG. 8 is an extraction of the waiting place and boarding time for each use day in FIG. The average boarding time when the waiting place was the living room was (18 + 15 + 16) /3=16.33 minutes, and the average boarding time when the waiting place was the entrance was (8 + 10 + 9 + 8). /4=8.75 minutes. From this, it can be seen that the difference in the waiting place has a great influence on the boarding time. Therefore, it is expected that the arrival time of the traveling vehicle 30 at each user's house can be predicted with a considerable degree of accuracy only by grasping each user's standby place on the day and whether or not the use is canceled.

  That is, each user's home 20 inputs only the user's standby location on the day and whether or not usage has been canceled to the information processing apparatus 100, thereby reducing the processing load on the information processing apparatus 100 and reducing the load on each user. The arrival time of the traveling vehicle 30 to the home can be predicted.

  As described above in detail, according to the present invention, information on whether or not the user has been canceled from each user's home 20 and the state of the user, seasonal factors and weather factors of the day from the welfare facility 10 side, etc. Is input to the information processing apparatus 100, and the arrival time of the traveling vehicle 30 to each user's home 20 is predicted based on the operation route of the traveling vehicle 30 set in advance on the welfare facility 10 side. The information can be obtained at the user's home 20. After the traveling vehicle 30 leaves the welfare facility 10, the information processing apparatus 100 uses the current position and time as the operation status supplied from the GPS terminal of the traveling vehicle 30 or the mobile phone 31 equipped with the GPS function. A correction operation is performed and the initial estimated arrival time is corrected.

For example, after the traveling vehicle 30 departs from the first user's house 20A, the travel time T (R ₀ ) required from the welfare facility 10 to the first user's house 20A and the first use The stop time T (W ₁ ) at the user's home 20A is replaced with the actual time, and the initial estimated arrival time is corrected. At the second user's home 20B and the third user's home 20C, it is corrected. The estimated arrival time based on the calculated result can be acquired.

  Even if the factor determining the boarding time such as information on the waiting place is not input from the user's home 20, the estimated arrival time is calculated by using the predicted time calculated based on the past results by the data analysis unit 130. Since the time is corrected, the estimated arrival time with almost the expected accuracy can be obtained.

  Thus, according to the present invention, the arrival time of the traveling vehicle 30 to the user's home 20 can be obtained with high accuracy, and the waiting time can be shortened.

  In addition, the arrival time of the traveling vehicle 30 can be similarly predicted when the user who receives the day service or the day care returns from the welfare facility 10 to his / her home. Users who come home can be greeted according to their arrival time.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 10 Welfare facilities 20A-20D User's house 30 Patrol vehicle 21 Personal computer 22 Mobile phone 23 Fixed telephone 31 GPS terminal or mobile phone equipped with GPS function 100 Information processing device 200 Internet, public communication line network, etc.

Claims (4)

A system for predicting the arrival time of each patrol vehicle that visits a welfare facility and a plurality of user homes by vehicle and picks up the user,
For the patrol route of the patrol vehicle set in advance, a standard operation time between the respective user's homes and a standard stop time at each user's home are set, and Operation information processing means for calculating the estimated arrival time;
For this operation information processing means, communication means for acquiring information on the state of the user on the day from the user's home side,
An operation status acquisition means for acquiring the position and time of the patrol vehicle and notifying the acquired information to the operation information processing means;
Comprising
The operation information processing means corrects the estimated arrival time at the user's home on the day based on information notified from the communication means and the operation status acquisition means.     The arrival time of the traveling vehicle according to claim 1, wherein the stopping time of the traveling vehicle at each user's home is statistically analyzed, and a standard stopping time is corrected based on the analysis result. Time prediction system.     The arrival time of the traveling vehicle according to any one of claims 1 and 2, wherein the user can acquire the estimated arrival time of the traveling vehicle to the user's home by the communication means. Prediction system.     4. The user status information notified from the user home side to the operation information processing means is at least one of cancellation of use or a standby place. The arrival time prediction system for a traveling vehicle according to item 1.

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