JP2009212707A - Controller, control method and computer program - Google Patents

Controller, control method and computer program Download PDF

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JP2009212707A
JP2009212707A JP2008052371A JP2008052371A JP2009212707A JP 2009212707 A JP2009212707 A JP 2009212707A JP 2008052371 A JP2008052371 A JP 2008052371A JP 2008052371 A JP2008052371 A JP 2008052371A JP 2009212707 A JP2009212707 A JP 2009212707A
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state information
congestion
information
base station
similarity
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Masato Asai
正人 浅居
Yumi Hosho
由美 寳生
Masanori Yokoe
政憲 横江
Koji Asayama
幸二 朝山
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Fujitsu Ltd
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Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a controller that estimates current congestion conditions in an area of a predetermined repeating installation on the basis of past communication condition in an area of other repeating installations that is set to the predetermined repeating installation. <P>SOLUTION: A control section 10 periodically generates an information accumulation table 13d listing the existence rate of base stations to be calculated at each time and the congestion rate of base stations to be monitored concerning each of the base stations to be monitored. The control section 10 also calculates a relative coefficient between the existence rate of the base stations to be calculated at current time and the existence rate thereof accumulated in the information accumulation table 13d. Furthermore, the control section 10 counts information of which calculated relative coefficient is a similar decision threshold or more among the information of the information accumulation table 13d, and it also counts the number of information of which congestion rate is a congestion decision threshold or more. The control section 10 calculates a ratio of the number of information having the congestion decision threshold or more in congestion rate to the number of information having the similar decision threshold or more in relative coefficient, resulting in the probability of congestion. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2009,JPO&INPIT

Description

本発明は、複数の中継装置を介して他の通信装置と通信を行なう通信装置を管理する管理装置、管理方法、前記管理装置の動作をコンピュータによって実現するためのコンピュータプログラムに関する。   The present invention relates to a management device that manages a communication device that communicates with another communication device via a plurality of relay devices, a management method, and a computer program for realizing the operation of the management device by a computer.

携帯電話機、Personal Handy-phone System(PHS)等の携帯端末が普及している。携帯端末は、電話回線網等のネットワークを介して通信相手の携帯端末との間で通信を行なう。ネットワークには複数の基地局が接続されており、携帯端末は、最寄りの基地局との間で無線通信が可能であり、最寄りの基地局を介してネットワークに接続し、通信相手の携帯端末との間で通信を行なう。   Mobile terminals such as mobile phones and personal handy-phone systems (PHS) are widely used. The mobile terminal communicates with a mobile terminal of a communication partner via a network such as a telephone line network. A plurality of base stations are connected to the network, and the mobile terminal can wirelessly communicate with the nearest base station. The mobile terminal connects to the network via the nearest base station and communicates with the mobile terminal of the communication partner. Communication between the two.

基地局は、自身の基地局と無線通信が可能な領域(エリア)内に在圏する携帯端末との間で無線通信を行なうので、それぞれの基地局のエリア内の複数の携帯端末が1つの基地局を共用する。基地局と携帯端末との間の通信において一定以上の通信品質(通話品質)を確保するために、それぞれの基地局が同時に通信できる携帯端末の数は限られている。それぞれの基地局と同時に通信する携帯端末の数が増大すると、各基地局を介した通信が輻輳し、このエリア内の携帯端末からの発信がかかりにくくなる、通信中の通話が中断される等の障害が発生する。   Since a base station performs wireless communication with a mobile terminal located within an area (area) where wireless communication with the base station can be performed, a plurality of mobile terminals in each base station area have one Share base stations. In order to ensure a certain level of communication quality (call quality) in communication between a base station and a mobile terminal, the number of mobile terminals that each base station can communicate with is limited. When the number of mobile terminals communicating simultaneously with each base station increases, communication via each base station becomes congested, making it difficult to make calls from mobile terminals in this area, interrupting calls during communication, etc. Failure occurs.

そこで、ネットワークにおける輻輳状態を監視し、輻輳状態に応じて、例えば新たに通信を開始する携帯端末を制限する等、各種の規制制御を適宜行なう装置が提案されている(例えば、特許文献1参照)。このような装置を用いることにより、通信が輻輳した場合に、適切な規制制御によって通信の輻輳を解消することができる。
特開2001−309036号公報
In view of this, there has been proposed an apparatus that appropriately performs various kinds of restriction control such as monitoring a congestion state in a network and restricting, for example, portable terminals that newly start communication according to the congestion state (see, for example, Patent Document 1). ). By using such an apparatus, when communication is congested, it is possible to eliminate communication congestion by appropriate regulation control.
JP 2001-309036 A

しかし、通信の輻輳の発生は予測できないので、輻輳が発生した時点で初めて、各種の規制制御を行なうことができる。従って、前もって輻輳の発生を予測できるシステムが要望されている。   However, since occurrence of communication congestion cannot be predicted, various kinds of regulation control can be performed only when congestion occurs. Therefore, there is a demand for a system that can predict the occurrence of congestion in advance.

本発明は斯かる事情に鑑みてなされたものであり、その目的とするところは、例えば、所定の中継装置及び該中継装置に対して予め設定された他の中継装置のエリアにおける過去の通信状態又は端末状態に基づいて、所定時間帯における所定の中継装置のエリア内の輻輳状態を予測することが可能な管理装置、管理方法及びコンピュータプログラムを提供することにある。   The present invention has been made in view of such circumstances, and an object of the present invention is, for example, a past communication state in an area of a predetermined relay device and other relay devices preset for the relay device. Another object of the present invention is to provide a management device, a management method, and a computer program capable of predicting a congestion state in an area of a predetermined relay device in a predetermined time zone based on a terminal state.

本管理装置の特徴は、複数の中継装置を介して他の通信装置と通信を行なう通信装置を管理する管理装置において、所定の中継装置における輻輳率と、該所定の中継装置に対して予め設定された他の中継装置と通信可能な領域内の通信装置の状態情報とを随時取得し、取得した輻輳率及び状態情報を、予め設定してある複数の時間帯毎に記憶手段に逐次記憶する点にある。また、本管理装置の特徴は、所定時間帯に取得した状態情報と、記憶手段に各時間帯毎に記憶してある状態情報のそれぞれとの類似度を算出し、算出した類似度が所定値以上である状態情報の数を計数すると共に、算出した類似度が所定値以上である状態情報と同一時間帯で記憶手段に記憶してある輻輳率のうちで所定値以上の輻輳率の数を計数し、計数した状態情報の数に対する、計数した輻輳率の数の割合を算出し、算出した割合に基づいて、前記所定の中継装置における所定時間帯での輻輳状態を予測する点にある。   The management device is characterized in that, in a management device that manages a communication device that communicates with other communication devices via a plurality of relay devices, the congestion rate in the predetermined relay device and the predetermined relay device are preset. The status information of the communication device in the area communicable with the other relay device is acquired as needed, and the acquired congestion rate and status information are sequentially stored in the storage means for each of a plurality of preset time zones. In the point. In addition, the management device is characterized in that the similarity between the state information acquired in a predetermined time zone and the state information stored in the storage unit for each time zone is calculated, and the calculated similarity is a predetermined value. While counting the number of state information above, the number of congestion rates greater than a predetermined value among the congestion rates stored in the storage means in the same time zone as the state information whose calculated similarity is greater than or equal to a predetermined value. Counting is performed, and the ratio of the counted congestion rate to the counted number of state information is calculated, and based on the calculated ratio, the congestion state in the predetermined time zone in the predetermined relay device is predicted.

本管理装置によれば、所定の中継装置における輻輳率と、該所定の中継装置に対して予め設定された他の中継装置と通信可能な領域(エリア)内の通信装置の状態情報とを1つの履歴情報として時間帯毎に蓄積しておく。そして、現在時刻等の所定時間帯に取得した状態情報と、蓄積してある各履歴情報の状態情報との類似度を算出し、類似度が所定値以上である状態情報(履歴情報)の数を計数する。よって、蓄積された履歴情報のうちで、状態情報が所定時間帯における状態情報と所定以上類似する履歴情報の数が計数される。また、状態情報が所定時間帯における状態情報と所定以上類似する履歴情報のうちで、輻輳率が所定値以上である履歴情報の数を計数する。   According to this management apparatus, the congestion rate in a predetermined relay apparatus and the status information of the communication apparatus in an area (area) communicable with another relay apparatus set in advance for the predetermined relay apparatus are 1 One history information is accumulated for each time zone. Then, the degree of similarity between the state information acquired in a predetermined time zone such as the current time and the state information of each accumulated history information is calculated, and the number of state information (history information) whose similarity is equal to or greater than a predetermined value Count. Therefore, among the accumulated history information, the number of history information whose state information is more than predetermined similar to the state information in the predetermined time zone is counted. In addition, among history information whose state information is similar to the state information in a predetermined time period by a predetermined amount or more, the number of history information whose congestion rate is a predetermined value or more is counted.

そして、状態情報が所定時間帯における状態情報と所定以上類似する履歴情報の数に対する、輻輳率が所定値以上である履歴情報の数の割合を算出し、算出した割合に基づいて、前記所定の中継装置のエリア内における所定時間帯での輻輳状態を予測する。よって、他の中継装置における過去の履歴情報のうちで、状態情報が所定時間帯での他の中継装置における状態情報と所定以上類似する履歴情報の数に対して、実際に輻輳したとされる履歴情報の数の割合に基づいて、前記所定の中継装置のエリア内における所定時間帯での輻輳状態を予測することが可能となる。   Then, a ratio of the number of history information whose congestion rate is a predetermined value or more to the number of history information whose state information is similar to the state information in a predetermined time period or more is calculated, and based on the calculated ratio, the predetermined information A congestion state in a predetermined time zone in the area of the relay device is predicted. Therefore, among the past history information in other relay apparatuses, it is assumed that the state information is actually congested with respect to the number of history information that is similar to the state information in other relay apparatuses in a predetermined time zone. Based on the ratio of the number of history information, it becomes possible to predict a congestion state in a predetermined time zone within the area of the predetermined relay device.

開示の管理装置は、例えば、他の中継装置として、所定の中継装置の近傍の中継装置を設定しておくことにより、近傍の中継装置のエリアにおける過去の状態情報に基づいて、現在時刻等の所定時間帯において所定の中継装置のエリア内に輻輳が発生する可能性を予測することができるという効果を奏する。   The disclosed management device, for example, by setting a relay device in the vicinity of a predetermined relay device as another relay device, based on the past state information in the area of the nearby relay device, the current time etc. There is an effect that it is possible to predict the possibility of congestion occurring in an area of a predetermined relay device in a predetermined time zone.

以下に、本発明に係る管理装置、及び本発明の管理方法に係る処理について、その実施形態を示す図面に基づいて詳述する。まず、本発明に係る管理装置を備える携帯端末管理システムについて説明する。図1は本実施形態に係る携帯端末管理システムの構成を示す模式図である。本実施形態の携帯端末管理システムは、通信キャリア(通信事業者)が管理する管理サーバ(管理装置)1、複数の基地局(中継装置)3,3…、基地局3,3…を介して相互に通信を行なう携帯電話機(通信装置)4,4…等を備える。   Below, the management apparatus which concerns on this invention, and the process which concerns on the management method of this invention are explained in full detail based on drawing which shows the embodiment. First, a portable terminal management system including a management device according to the present invention will be described. FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram showing a configuration of a mobile terminal management system according to the present embodiment. The mobile terminal management system of the present embodiment includes a management server (management device) 1 managed by a communication carrier (communication carrier), a plurality of base stations (relay devices) 3, 3,... Cellular phones (communication devices) 4, 4... That communicate with each other.

管理サーバ1及び複数の基地局3,3…は、公衆電話回線網等のネットワークNを介して接続されている。管理サーバ1は、同一の通信キャリアが管理する端末装置2と、例えばLocal Area Network(LAN)を介して接続されており、LANは、例えばルータ(図示せず)を介してネットワークNに接続されている。端末装置2は、例えばパーソナルコンピュータであり、携帯端末管理システムの保守等を行なう担当者(保守者)が扱う装置である。   The management server 1 and the plurality of base stations 3, 3,... Are connected via a network N such as a public telephone line network. The management server 1 is connected to a terminal device 2 managed by the same communication carrier via, for example, a local area network (LAN), and the LAN is connected to the network N via, for example, a router (not shown). ing. The terminal device 2 is a personal computer, for example, and is a device handled by a person in charge (maintenance person) who performs maintenance of the mobile terminal management system.

基地局3,3…は、自身を中心とした所定領域(エリア)内に在圏(存在)する携帯電話機4,4…との間で無線通信を行なっており、図1に模式的に示したように、基地局3,3…のそれぞれについて破線で示した閉曲線内に在圏する携帯電話機4,4…との間で無線通信を行なう。従って、携帯電話機4,4…は、1つの基地局3のエリア内から他の基地局3のエリア内へ移動した場合、無線通信を行なう最寄りの基地局3を適宜切り替えて通信を行なう。   The base stations 3, 3... Perform wireless communication with the mobile phones 4, 4... Located in a predetermined area (area) centered on the base stations 3, 4. As described above, each of the base stations 3, 3... Performs wireless communication with the mobile phones 4, 4. Therefore, when the mobile telephones 4, 4... Move from the area of one base station 3 to the area of another base station 3, communication is performed by appropriately switching the nearest base station 3 that performs wireless communication.

図2は管理サーバ1の構成を示すブロック図である。本実施形態の管理サーバ1は、本発明に係るコンピュータプログラムを例えば公知のパーソナルコンピュータに読み取らせて実行させることによって、本発明の管理装置の機能を実現する。なお、専用の装置によって本実施形態の管理サーバ1を構成するようにしてもよい。   FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing the configuration of the management server 1. The management server 1 of this embodiment implement | achieves the function of the management apparatus of this invention by making a well-known personal computer read and run the computer program which concerns on this invention, for example. Note that the management server 1 of this embodiment may be configured by a dedicated device.

本実施形態の管理サーバ1は、制御部10、Read Only Memory(ROM)11、Random Access Memory(RAM)12、Hard Disk Drive(HDD)13、通信インタフェース14等を備え、これらのハードウェア各部はそれぞれバス1aを介して相互に接続されている。   The management server 1 according to the present embodiment includes a control unit 10, a read only memory (ROM) 11, a random access memory (RAM) 12, a hard disk drive (HDD) 13, a communication interface 14, and the like. Each is connected to each other via a bus 1a.

制御部10は、時計(図示せず)を備えるCentral Processing Unit(CPU)又はMicro Processor Unit(MPU)等であり、ROM11又はHDD13に予め格納されている制御プログラムを適宜RAM12に読み出して実行すると共に、上述したハードウェア各部の動作を制御する。ROM11は、管理サーバ1を本発明の管理装置として動作させるために必要な種々の制御プログラムを予め格納している。RAM12はSRAM又はフラッシュメモリ等であり、制御部10による制御プログラムの実行時に発生する種々のデータを一時的に記憶する。   The control unit 10 is a central processing unit (CPU) or a micro processor unit (MPU) that includes a clock (not shown), and reads and executes a control program stored in advance in the ROM 11 or the HDD 13 to the RAM 12 as appropriate. The operation of each hardware unit described above is controlled. The ROM 11 stores in advance various control programs necessary for operating the management server 1 as the management device of the present invention. The RAM 12 is an SRAM or a flash memory, and temporarily stores various data generated when the control unit 10 executes the control program.

HDD13は大容量の記憶装置である。HDD13は、管理サーバ1を本発明の管理装置として動作させるために必要な種々の制御プログラム、図3に示すような基地局情報テーブル13a、図4(a)に示すような基準情報テーブル13b、図4(b)に示すような算出対象情報テーブル13c、図7に示すような情報蓄積テーブル13d等を格納する。   The HDD 13 is a large capacity storage device. The HDD 13 includes various control programs necessary for operating the management server 1 as the management apparatus of the present invention, a base station information table 13a as shown in FIG. 3, a reference information table 13b as shown in FIG. A calculation target information table 13c as shown in FIG. 4B and an information accumulation table 13d as shown in FIG. 7 are stored.

通信インタフェース14は、例えばLANを介して端末装置2に接続されると共に、LANに接続されたルータを介してネットワークNに接続される。   The communication interface 14 is connected to the terminal device 2 via a LAN, for example, and is connected to the network N via a router connected to the LAN.

図3は基地局情報テーブル13aの登録内容を示す模式図である。基地局情報テーブル13aには、図3に示すように、各基地局3,3…に割り当てられた基地局番号、各基地局3,3…の最大収容数が登録されている。また、基地局情報テーブル13aには、各基地局3,3…の基地局番号に対応させて、日時、各日時における在圏者数、各日時における輻輳率等が登録されている。   FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram showing the registration contents of the base station information table 13a. In the base station information table 13a, as shown in FIG. 3, the base station number assigned to each base station 3, 3... And the maximum accommodation number of each base station 3, 3. Further, in the base station information table 13a, the date and time, the number of people at each date and time, the congestion rate at each date and time, and the like are registered in association with the base station numbers of the base stations 3, 3.

各基地局3,3…の最大収容数は、各基地局3,3…の性能に応じて予め設定されている数である。なお、基地局3,3…は、携帯電話機4,4…が通話(通信)を行なっていない場合であっても、自身のエリア内に在圏する携帯電話機4,4…との間で所定のデータの送受信を行なっており、このようなデータの送受信が可能な携帯電話機4,4…の数(人数)が最大収容数である。   The maximum accommodation number of each base station 3, 3... Is a number set in advance according to the performance of each base station 3, 3. The base stations 3, 3... Are predetermined with the mobile phones 4, 4... That are located in their own area even when the mobile phones 4, 4. The number (number of people) of mobile phones 4, 4... Capable of transmitting / receiving such data is the maximum accommodation number.

基地局情報テーブル13aの基地局番号の欄及び最大収容数の欄の登録内容は、予め登録されており、また、新たな基地局3が設けられた場合に、携帯端末管理システムの保守者が端末装置2を介して基地局番号及び最大収容数を入力する都度、制御部10によって登録される。また、既に基地局情報テーブル13aに登録されている基地局3の性能を向上させることによって最大収容数が変更した場合に、携帯端末管理システムの保守者が端末装置2を介して最大収容数を入力する都度、制御部10によって更新される。   The registration contents of the base station number column and the maximum accommodated number column of the base station information table 13a are registered in advance, and when a new base station 3 is provided, the maintenance person of the portable terminal management system Each time the base station number and the maximum accommodation number are input via the terminal device 2, they are registered by the control unit 10. Further, when the maximum accommodation number is changed by improving the performance of the base station 3 already registered in the base station information table 13a, the maintenance person of the portable terminal management system sets the maximum accommodation number via the terminal device 2. Every time it is input, it is updated by the control unit 10.

基地局情報テーブル13aの日時の欄、在圏者数の欄及び輻輳率の欄の登録内容は、各基地局3,3…から定期的に在圏者数及び輻輳率を取得する都度、制御部10によって登録される。なお、管理サーバ1が、在圏者数及び輻輳率と共に、これらの在圏者数及び輻輳率を取得した日時の情報も基地局3,3…から取得している場合、制御部10は、基地局3,3…から取得した日時、在圏者数及び輻輳率を基地局情報テーブル13aの対応する欄にそれぞれ登録する。   The registration contents of the date / time column, the number of people in the base station, and the column of the congestion rate in the base station information table 13a are controlled whenever the number of people in the base station and the congestion rate are periodically acquired from each base station 3, 3. Registered by the unit 10. In addition, when the management server 1 has also acquired information on the date and time when the number of people in the service area and the congestion rate are acquired from the base stations 3, 3. The date / time, the number of people in the service area, and the congestion rate acquired from the base stations 3, 3,.

なお、各基地局3,3…が在圏者数及び輻輳率を取得する都度、リアルタイムで管理サーバ1へ送信している場合、制御部10は、基地局3,3…から取得した在圏者数及び輻輳率を、在圏者数及び輻輳率を取得した時点で自身の時計が示す日時と共に基地局情報テーブル13aの対応する欄にそれぞれ登録してもよい。   When each base station 3, 3... Acquires the number of people in the service area and the congestion rate, it transmits to the management server 1 in real time. The number of people and the congestion rate may be registered in the corresponding fields of the base station information table 13a together with the date and time indicated by its own clock when the number of people in the service area and the congestion rate are acquired.

図4は基準情報テーブル13b及び算出対象情報テーブル13cの登録内容を示す模式図である。基準情報テーブル13bには、図4(a)に示すように、監視対象の基地局3を特定するための監視対象基地局番号に対応させて、類似判定閾値、輻輳判定閾値、警告判定閾値等が登録されている。監視対象の基地局3とは、輻輳が発生する可能性を監視する対象の基地局3である。類似判定閾値、輻輳判定閾値及び警告判定閾値は、監視対象の基地局3に対して行なう、後述の輻輳の発生確率の算出処理に用いる閾値である。   FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram showing the registration contents of the reference information table 13b and the calculation target information table 13c. In the reference information table 13b, as shown in FIG. 4A, a similarity determination threshold, a congestion determination threshold, a warning determination threshold, and the like are associated with the monitoring target base station number for specifying the monitoring target base station 3. Is registered. The monitoring target base station 3 is a target base station 3 that monitors the possibility of congestion. The similarity determination threshold value, the congestion determination threshold value, and the warning determination threshold value are threshold values used for calculation processing of the probability of occurrence of congestion, which will be described later, performed on the monitored base station 3.

基準情報テーブル13bの登録内容は、予め登録されており、また、新たに監視対象の基地局3が追加された場合に、携帯端末管理システムの保守者が端末装置2を介して監視対象の基地局番号及び各種閾値を入力する都度、制御部10によって登録される。また、既に基準情報テーブル13bに登録されている各閾値が変更される場合に、携帯端末管理システムの保守者が端末装置2を介して各種閾値を入力する都度、制御部10によって更新される。   The registration contents of the reference information table 13b are registered in advance, and when a base station 3 to be monitored is newly added, the maintenance person of the mobile terminal management system can monitor the base to be monitored via the terminal device 2. Each time the station number and various threshold values are input, the control unit 10 registers them. Further, when each threshold value already registered in the reference information table 13b is changed, it is updated by the control unit 10 every time a maintenance person of the portable terminal management system inputs various threshold values via the terminal device 2.

算出対象情報テーブル13cには、図4(b)に示すように、監視対象の基地局3を特定するための監視対象基地局番号に対応させて、算出対象の基地局3を特定するための算出対象基地局番号、算出対象期間等が登録されている。算出対象の基地局3とは、監視対象の基地局(所定の中継装置)3に対して予め設定された基地局であり、監視対象の基地局3に対して行なう、後述の輻輳の発生確率の算出処理において各種の情報(具体的には、相関係数)を算出する際にデータを利用する基地局3である。また、算出対象期間は、後述の輻輳の発生確率の算出処理において各種の情報を算出する際に利用するデータに関する期間である。   In the calculation target information table 13c, as shown in FIG. 4B, the calculation target base station 3 is specified in association with the monitoring target base station number for specifying the monitoring target base station 3. A calculation target base station number, a calculation target period, and the like are registered. The calculation target base station 3 is a base station set in advance for the base station (predetermined relay device) 3 to be monitored, and the probability of occurrence of congestion described later performed for the base station 3 to be monitored. The base station 3 uses data when calculating various types of information (specifically, correlation coefficients) in the calculation process. The calculation target period is a period related to data used when various types of information are calculated in the calculation processing of the probability of occurrence of congestion described later.

算出対象情報テーブル13cの登録内容は、予め登録されており、また、新たに監視対象の基地局3が追加された場合に、携帯端末管理システムの保守者が端末装置2を介して監視対象の基地局番号、算出対象の基地局番号及び算出対象期間を入力する都度、制御部10によって登録される。また、既に算出対象情報テーブル13cに登録されている算出対象の基地局番号又は算出対象期間が変更される場合に、携帯端末管理システムの保守者が端末装置2を介して算出対象の基地局番号又は算出対象期間を入力する都度、制御部10によって更新される。   The registration contents of the calculation target information table 13c are registered in advance, and when a base station 3 to be monitored is newly added, the maintenance person of the mobile terminal management system can monitor the target of monitoring via the terminal device 2. Each time the base station number, the base station number to be calculated, and the calculation target period are input, they are registered by the control unit 10. In addition, when the base station number or the calculation target period already registered in the calculation target information table 13c is changed, the maintenance person of the portable terminal management system can calculate the base station number to be calculated via the terminal device 2. Alternatively, it is updated by the control unit 10 every time the calculation target period is input.

情報蓄積テーブル13dは、後述する輻輳の発生確率の算出処理の際に制御部10によって生成されるので、情報蓄積テーブル13dの登録内容については後述する。   Since the information accumulation table 13d is generated by the control unit 10 during the calculation process of the probability of occurrence of congestion, which will be described later, the registration contents of the information accumulation table 13d will be described later.

図5は基地局3の構成を示すブロック図である。本実施形態の基地局3は、制御部30、ROM31、RAM32、HDD33、ネットワークNに接続するための通信インタフェース34、無線通信部35等を備え、これらのハードウェア各部はそれぞれバス3aを介して相互に接続されている。   FIG. 5 is a block diagram showing the configuration of the base station 3. The base station 3 of this embodiment includes a control unit 30, a ROM 31, a RAM 32, an HDD 33, a communication interface 34 for connecting to the network N, a wireless communication unit 35, and the like, and these hardware units are respectively connected via a bus 3a. Are connected to each other.

制御部30は、時計(図示せず)を備えるCPU又はMPU等であり、ROM31又はHDD33に予め格納されている制御プログラムを適宜RAM32に読み出して実行すると共に、上述したハードウェア各部の動作を制御する。ROM31は、基地局3として動作するために必要な種々の制御プログラムを予め格納している。RAM32はSRAM又はフラッシュメモリ等であり、制御部30による制御プログラムの実行時に発生する種々のデータを一時的に記憶する。   The control unit 30 is a CPU or MPU equipped with a clock (not shown), reads out and executes a control program stored in advance in the ROM 31 or HDD 33 to the RAM 32 as appropriate, and controls the operation of each hardware unit described above. To do. The ROM 31 stores various control programs necessary for operating as the base station 3 in advance. The RAM 32 is an SRAM or a flash memory, and temporarily stores various data generated when the control unit 30 executes the control program.

無線通信部35は、携帯電話機4,4…との無線通信のために電波の送受信を行なうアンテナ35aに接続されており、制御部30からの指示に従ってアンテナ35aを介して、自身の基地局3のエリア内に在圏する携帯電話機4,4…との接続を確立する。   The wireless communication unit 35 is connected to an antenna 35a that transmits and receives radio waves for wireless communication with the mobile phones 4, 4,..., And in accordance with an instruction from the control unit 30, its own base station 3 is connected via the antenna 35a. Connection with the mobile phones 4, 4.

HDD33は大容量の記憶装置である。HDD33は、基地局3として動作するために必要な種々の制御プログラム、端末管理テーブル33a等を格納する。図示しないが、端末管理テーブル33aには、自身の基地局3のエリア内に在圏する携帯電話機4,4…の情報(例えば電話番号)が登録されている。   The HDD 33 is a large-capacity storage device. The HDD 33 stores various control programs necessary for operating as the base station 3, a terminal management table 33a, and the like. Although not shown, information (for example, telephone numbers) of mobile phones 4, 4... Located in the area of the base station 3 is registered in the terminal management table 33a.

なお、基地局3は、携帯電話機4,4…が通話(通信)を行なっていない場合であっても、自身のエリア内に在圏する携帯電話機4,4…との間で定期的に所定のデータを送受信している。従って、制御部30は、携帯電話機4が自身の基地局3のエリア内に入ったことによって無線通信部35を介した携帯電話機4との通信を開始する都度、この携帯電話機4の情報を端末管理テーブル33aに登録する。また、制御部30は、携帯電話機4が自身の基地局3のエリア外へ出たことによって無線通信部35を介した携帯電話機4との通信が所定時間以上途絶えた場合、この携帯電話機4の情報を端末管理テーブル33aから削除する。   In addition, the base station 3 periodically determines whether or not the mobile phones 4, 4... Are communicating with the mobile phones 4, 4. Sending and receiving data. Therefore, whenever the mobile phone 4 enters the area of its own base station 3 and starts communication with the mobile phone 4 via the wireless communication unit 35, the control unit 30 displays the information of the mobile phone 4 as a terminal. Register in the management table 33a. In addition, when the mobile phone 4 goes out of the area of its own base station 3 and communication with the mobile phone 4 via the wireless communication unit 35 is interrupted for a predetermined time or longer, the control unit 30 The information is deleted from the terminal management table 33a.

このように、各基地局3,3…は、自身のエリア内に入出する各携帯電話機4,4…の情報を端末管理テーブル33aに登録又は削除することによって、自身のエリア内に在圏する携帯端末4,4…を把握することができる。   In this way, each base station 3, 3... Is located in its own area by registering or deleting information of each mobile phone 4, 4... Entering / exiting its own area in the terminal management table 33a. It is possible to grasp the mobile terminals 4, 4.

以下に、上述した構成の管理サーバ1において、制御部10がROM11又はHDD13に格納されている制御プログラムを実行することによって実現される機能について説明する。図6は管理サーバ1の機能構成を示す機能ブロック図である。   Hereinafter, in the management server 1 having the above-described configuration, functions realized by the control unit 10 executing a control program stored in the ROM 11 or the HDD 13 will be described. FIG. 6 is a functional block diagram showing a functional configuration of the management server 1.

本実施形態の管理サーバ1において、制御部10は、ROM11又はHDD13に格納されている制御プログラムを実行することによって、基地局情報受信部10a、基地局情報蓄積部10b、相関関係計算部10c、確率算出部10d、通知部10e等の各機能を実現する。なお、相関関係計算部10c及び確率算出部10dによって、監視対象の基地局3に対する輻輳の発生確率の算出処理が実行される。   In the management server 1 of the present embodiment, the control unit 10 executes a control program stored in the ROM 11 or the HDD 13 to thereby execute a base station information receiving unit 10a, a base station information accumulating unit 10b, a correlation calculating unit 10c, Each function of the probability calculation unit 10d, the notification unit 10e, and the like is realized. The correlation calculation unit 10c and the probability calculation unit 10d execute a calculation process of the probability of occurrence of congestion with respect to the base station 3 to be monitored.

基地局情報受信部10aは、通信インタフェース14を介して各基地局3,3…から、各基地局3,3…における在圏者数及び輻輳率、在圏者数及び輻輳率を取得した日時の情報を受信する。輻輳率は、各基地局3,3…において定期的に算出されるものであり、例えば、各基地局3,3…が同時に通信可能な携帯電話機4,4…の数に対する、実際に通信を行なっている携帯電話機4,4…の数の割合(%)によって表わされる。   The base station information receiving unit 10a acquires the number of people in the base station, the congestion rate, the number of people in the base station, and the congestion rate from the base stations 3, 3. Receive the information. The congestion rate is periodically calculated in each base station 3, 3,..., For example, the actual communication is performed with respect to the number of mobile phones 4, 4. It is represented by the ratio (%) of the number of mobile phones 4, 4.

基地局情報蓄積部10bは、基地局情報受信部10aが受信した日時の情報、在圏者数及び輻輳率を、これらの情報を送信した基地局3の基地局番号に対応させて、基地局情報テーブル13aの対応する欄に蓄積する。   The base station information storage unit 10b associates the date and time information received by the base station information reception unit 10a, the number of people in the service area, and the congestion rate with the base station number of the base station 3 that has transmitted the information. Accumulate in the corresponding column of the information table 13a.

相関関係計算部10cは、所定のタイミングで、算出対象情報テーブル13cに登録してある監視対象基地局番号が示す基地局3のそれぞれについて、相関関係の計算処理を実行し、図7に示すような情報蓄積テーブル13dを生成する。図7は情報蓄積テーブル13dの登録内容を示す模式図である。   The correlation calculation unit 10c executes correlation calculation processing for each of the base stations 3 indicated by the monitored base station numbers registered in the calculation target information table 13c at a predetermined timing, as shown in FIG. The information storage table 13d is generated. FIG. 7 is a schematic diagram showing the registered contents of the information accumulation table 13d.

相関関係計算部10cは、まず、算出対象情報テーブル13cから1組の情報を読み出す。ここでは、図4(b)に示した算出対象情報テーブル13cから、監視対象基地局番号「0010」、算出対象基地局番号「0008,0009,0011」及び算出対象期間「1440」と読み出したとする。   The correlation calculation unit 10c first reads a set of information from the calculation target information table 13c. Here, it is assumed that the monitoring target base station number “0010”, the calculation target base station number “0008,0009, 0011”, and the calculation target period “1440” are read from the calculation target information table 13c illustrated in FIG. .

相関関係計算部10cは、算出対象情報テーブル13cから読み出した監視対象基地局番号「0010」について情報蓄積テーブル13dを生成する。即ち、相関関係計算部10cは、日時、算出対象基地局3,3,3(基地局「0008」、「0009」、「0011」)の在圏率、輻輳率、相関係数の各欄を有する情報蓄積テーブル13dを生成してHDD13に格納させる。   The correlation calculation unit 10c generates the information accumulation table 13d for the monitoring target base station number “0010” read from the calculation target information table 13c. That is, the correlation calculation unit 10c displays the columns of date and time, the coverage ratio, the congestion rate, and the correlation coefficient of the calculation target base stations 3, 3, and 3 (base stations “0008”, “0009”, and “0011”). The information storage table 13 d is generated and stored in the HDD 13.

次に相関関係計算部10cは、制御部10の時計が示す現在日時から、算出対象情報テーブル13cから読み出した算出対象期間遡った日時を算出する。そして、相関関係計算部(輻輳率取得手段)10cは、監視対象基地局番号「0010」の基地局(所定の中継装置)3について、算出した日時から現在日時までの期間内の各日時における輻輳率を基地局情報テーブル13aから読み出し、読み出した日時及び輻輳率を対応させて情報蓄積テーブル(記憶手段)13dに登録する。   Next, the correlation calculation unit 10c calculates the date and time retroactive to the calculation target period read from the calculation target information table 13c from the current date and time indicated by the clock of the control unit 10. Then, the correlation calculation unit (congestion rate acquisition unit) 10c performs the congestion at each date / time within the period from the calculated date / time to the current date / time for the base station (predetermined relay device) 3 of the monitored base station number “0010”. The rate is read from the base station information table 13a, and the read date and time and the congestion rate are associated with each other and registered in the information accumulation table (storage means) 13d.

次に相関関係計算部(状態情報取得手段)10cは、算出対象基地局番号「0008,0009,0011」の各基地局3,3…について、情報蓄積テーブル13dの日時の欄に登録された各日時における在圏者数(状態情報)を基地局情報テーブル13aからそれぞれ読み出す。また、相関関係計算部10cは、算出対象基地局番号「0008,0009,0011」の各基地局3,3…の最大収容数を基地局情報テーブル13aから読み出し、読み出した最大収容数に対する在圏者数の割合(在圏率)を算出する。相関関係計算部10cは、算出対象基地局番号「0008,0009,0011」の各基地局3,3…毎に算出した在圏率を日時に対応させて情報蓄積テーブル(記憶手段)13dに登録する。   Next, the correlation calculation unit (state information acquisition unit) 10c registers each base station 3, 3... Of the calculation target base station number “0008, 0009, 0011”, registered in the date / time column of the information accumulation table 13d. The number of people at the date and time (status information) is read from the base station information table 13a. Further, the correlation calculation unit 10c reads out the maximum accommodation number of each base station 3, 3,... Of the calculation target base station number “0008, 0009, 0011” from the base station information table 13a, and is located in the area corresponding to the read maximum accommodation number. Calculate the ratio of the number of people (location ratio). The correlation calculation unit 10c registers the coverage ratio calculated for each base station 3, 3... Of the calculation target base station number “0008, 0009, 0011” in the information storage table (storage means) 13d in association with the date and time. To do.

次に相関関係計算部(類似度算出手段)10cは、現在日時における算出対象基地局3,3,3の在圏率と、情報蓄積テーブル13dに蓄積された算出対象基地局3,3,3の在圏率のそれぞれとの相関係数(類似度)rを、数1(1)に示す数式を用いて算出する。数1(1)に示す数式は、ピアソンの積率相関係数を算出するための式である。なお、現在日時における算出対象基地局3,3,3の在圏率と、情報蓄積テーブル13dに蓄積された算出対象基地局3,3,3の在圏率との相関係数(類似度)であれば、ピアソンの積率相関係数に限られない。   Next, the correlation calculation unit (similarity calculating means) 10c calculates the coverage ratio of the calculation target base stations 3, 3, 3 at the current date and time, and the calculation target base stations 3, 3, 3 stored in the information storage table 13d. The correlation coefficient (similarity) r with each of the coverage ratios is calculated using the formula shown in Equation 1 (1). The mathematical formula shown in Equation 1 (1) is a formula for calculating the Pearson product moment correlation coefficient. The correlation coefficient (similarity) between the coverage ratios of the calculation target base stations 3, 3 and 3 at the current date and time and the coverage ratios of the calculation target base stations 3, 3 and 3 stored in the information storage table 13d. If so, it is not limited to Pearson's product moment correlation coefficient.

Figure 2009212707
Figure 2009212707

ここでは、図7に示す情報蓄積テーブル13dの最下段に登録された情報が現在日時の情報であるとし、現在日時が「2008/2/1 10:00」であり、算出対象基地局「0008」、「0009」、「0011」のそれぞれについて現在日時における在圏率が0.3、0.5、0.2であった場合の相関係数の算出処理を例に説明する。相関関係計算部10cは、算出対象基地局3,3,3が3つあるので、数1(1)に示す数式のnに3を代入し、数1(2)に示す数式を得る。そして、相関関係計算部10cは、数1(2)に示す数式において、x1 、x2 、x3 に、情報蓄積テーブル13dに蓄積された各日時における算出対象基地局「0008」、「0009」、「0011」の在圏率を代入し、y1 、y2 、y3 に、現在日時における算出対象基地局「0008」、「0009」、「0011」の在圏率を代入する。 Here, it is assumed that the information registered at the bottom of the information accumulation table 13d shown in FIG. 7 is information on the current date and time, the current date and time is “2008/2/1 10:00”, and the calculation target base station “0008” ”,“ 0009 ”, and“ 0011 ”will be described by taking, as an example, the calculation processing of the correlation coefficient when the coverage ratio at the current date and time is 0.3, 0.5, and 0.2. Since there are three calculation target base stations 3, 3, and 3, the correlation calculation unit 10 c substitutes 3 for n in the equation shown in Equation 1 (1) to obtain the equation shown in Equation 1 (2). Then, the correlation calculation unit 10c calculates the calculation target base stations “0008” and “0009” at each date and time stored in the information storage table 13d in x 1 , x 2 , and x 3 in the mathematical formula shown in Equation 1 (2). ”And“ 0011 ”are substituted, and the calculation target base stations“ 0008 ”,“ 0009 ”, and“ 0011 ”at the current date and time are substituted for y 1 , y 2 , and y 3 .

これにより、相関関係計算部10cは、情報蓄積テーブル13dに蓄積された各日時毎に、現在日時における算出対象基地局3,3,3の在圏率との相関係数を算出することができる。相関関係計算部10cは、各日時毎に算出した相関係数を、日時に対応させて情報蓄積テーブル13dに順次登録する。   Thereby, the correlation calculation unit 10c can calculate a correlation coefficient with the coverage ratio of the calculation target base stations 3, 3, and 3 at the current date and time for each date and time accumulated in the information accumulation table 13d. . The correlation calculation unit 10c sequentially registers the correlation coefficient calculated for each date and time in the information storage table 13d in association with the date and time.

相関関係計算部10cが情報蓄積テーブル13dを完成させた後、確率算出部10dは、情報蓄積テーブル13d及び基準情報テーブル13bの登録内容に基づいて、監視対象基地局番号「0010」における輻輳の発生確率を算出する。確率算出部10dは、監視対象基地局番号「0010」に対応する類似判定閾値及び輻輳判定閾値を基準情報テーブル13bから読み出す。確率算出部(状態情報計数手段)10dは、情報蓄積テーブル13dに日時毎に蓄積されている情報(算出対象基地局の在圏率、輻輳率、相関係数を1組とした情報)のうちで、対応する相関係数が、基準情報テーブル13bから読み出した類似判定閾値(例えば0.5)以上である情報を特定し、特定した情報の数を計数する。なお、図7に示す情報蓄積テーブル13dでは、日時「2008/1/1 10:10」、「2008/1/1 10:20」、「2008/1/1 10:30」の3つの情報が特定される。   After the correlation calculation unit 10c completes the information accumulation table 13d, the probability calculation unit 10d generates congestion in the monitored base station number “0010” based on the registered contents of the information accumulation table 13d and the reference information table 13b. Probability is calculated. The probability calculation unit 10d reads the similarity determination threshold value and the congestion determination threshold value corresponding to the monitoring target base station number “0010” from the reference information table 13b. The probability calculation unit (state information counting means) 10d is the information stored in the information storage table 13d for each date and time (information including the coverage ratio, congestion rate, and correlation coefficient of the calculation target base station as one set). Thus, information whose corresponding correlation coefficient is equal to or greater than the similarity determination threshold value (for example, 0.5) read from the reference information table 13b is specified, and the number of the specified information is counted. In the information storage table 13d shown in FIG. 7, the date and time “2008/1/1 10:10”, “2008/1/1 10:20”, and “2008/1/1 10:30” are stored. Identified.

確率算出部(輻輳率計数手段)10dは、相関係数が類似判定閾値以上であると特定された3つの情報のうちで、対応する輻輳率が、基準情報テーブル13bから読み出した輻輳判定閾値(例えば60)以上である情報を特定し、特定した情報の数を計数する。なお、図7に示す情報蓄積テーブル13dでは、日時「2008/1/1 10:20」、「2008/1/1 10:30」の2つの情報が特定される。確率算出部(割合算出手段)10dは、対応する相関係数が類似判定閾値以上である情報の数に対する、対応する輻輳率が輻輳判定閾値以上である情報の数の割合を算出する。なお、この割合が、監視対象基地局番号「0010」において輻輳が発生する確率を示している。   The probability calculation unit (congestion rate counting means) 10d has a congestion determination threshold (congestion determination threshold value) in which the corresponding congestion rate is read from the reference information table 13b among the three pieces of information specified that the correlation coefficient is equal to or greater than the similarity determination threshold. For example, information that is 60) or more is identified, and the number of identified information is counted. In the information storage table 13d shown in FIG. 7, two pieces of information “2008/1/1 10:20” and “2008/1/1 10:30” are specified. The probability calculation unit (ratio calculation means) 10d calculates the ratio of the number of information whose corresponding congestion rate is equal to or greater than the congestion determination threshold to the number of information whose corresponding correlation coefficient is equal to or greater than the similarity determination threshold. This ratio indicates the probability that congestion will occur in the monitored base station number “0010”.

通知部10eは、確率算出部10dが算出した割合に基づいて、監視対象基地局番号「0010」における現在日時「2008/2/1 10:00」での輻輳状態を予測し、必要に応じて端末装置2を操作する保守者に警告する。具体的には、通知部10eは、監視対象基地局番号「0010」に対応する警告判定閾値を基準情報テーブル13bから読み出し、確率算出部10dが算出した割合が警告判定閾値以上であるか否かを判断する。   The notification unit 10e predicts the congestion state at the current date and time “2008/2/1 10:00” in the monitoring target base station number “0010” based on the ratio calculated by the probability calculation unit 10d, and if necessary. A maintenance person who operates the terminal device 2 is warned. Specifically, the notification unit 10e reads out the warning determination threshold corresponding to the monitored base station number “0010” from the reference information table 13b, and whether or not the ratio calculated by the probability calculation unit 10d is equal to or higher than the warning determination threshold. Judging.

確率算出部10dが算出した割合が警告判定閾値以上である場合、通知部10eは、警告が必要であると判断し、例えば、「基地局「0010」で輻輳が発生する可能性が高いです」等のメッセージを通信インタフェース14から端末装置2へ送信して警告する。このようなメッセージを受け取った保守者は、基地局「0010」が通信を行なう携帯電話機4,4…の数を制限する等の規制制御を行なう。このように、保守者は、実際に輻輳が発生する前に輻輳が発生する可能性を把握することができるので、輻輳の発生前に前もって規制制御を行なうことができ、輻輳の発生を確実に回避することができる。   When the ratio calculated by the probability calculation unit 10d is equal to or higher than the warning determination threshold, the notification unit 10e determines that a warning is necessary, and for example, “the possibility of congestion occurring at the base station“ 0010 ”is high”. Or the like is transmitted from the communication interface 14 to the terminal device 2 to give a warning. The maintenance person who receives such a message performs restriction control such as limiting the number of mobile phones 4, 4... With which the base station “0010” communicates. In this way, the maintenance person can grasp the possibility of congestion occurring before congestion actually occurs, so it is possible to perform regulation control in advance before the occurrence of congestion, and to ensure the occurrence of congestion. It can be avoided.

なお、確率算出部10dが算出した割合が警告判定閾値以上でない場合、通知部10eは、例えば、「基地局「0010」で輻輳が発生する可能性は低いです」等のメッセージを端末装置2へ送信する。このようなメッセージを受け取った保守者は、この時点で基地局「0010」に対して規制制御を行なっている場合、規制制御の解除を行なう。このように、保守者は、規制制御が不要であるか否かを把握することができるので、不要な規制制御を早期に解除することができる。   When the ratio calculated by the probability calculation unit 10d is not equal to or higher than the warning determination threshold, the notification unit 10e sends, for example, a message such as “the possibility of congestion occurring at the base station“ 0010 ”is low” to the terminal device 2. Send. The maintenance person who has received such a message cancels the restriction control if the restriction control is being performed on the base station “0010” at this time. In this way, the maintenance person can grasp whether or not the regulation control is unnecessary, so that the unnecessary regulation control can be released early.

従って、通信可能な携帯電話機4,4…の数の制限等の不要な規制制御によって、不適切に通信が制限されていた携帯電話機4,4…による通信が可能となるので、携帯電話機4,4…における通信の機会の損失を削減することができる。また、通信キャリアは、不適切に通信が制限されていた携帯電話機4,4…による通信が可能となることによって、各携帯電話機4,4…が行なう通信に基づく通信料の徴収の損失を回避できる。   Therefore, communication by the mobile phones 4, 4... That are improperly restricted by unnecessary restriction control such as limiting the number of mobile phones 4, 4. The loss of communication opportunities in 4... Can be reduced. Moreover, the communication carrier can avoid the loss of collection of communication charges based on the communication performed by each mobile phone 4, 4. it can.

上述したように、本実施形態の携帯端末管理システムでは、算出対象基地局3,3…における過去の在圏者数の状況のうちで、算出対象基地局3,3…における現在の在圏者数の状況と類似する状況を特定してその数を計数する。また、算出対象基地局3,3…における現在の在圏者数の状況と類似する過去の状況のうちで、この状況と同じ日時での監視対象基地局3における輻輳率が、実際に輻輳と判断すべき輻輳率以上である状況の数を計数する。そして、算出対象基地局3,3…における現在の在圏者数の状況と類似する過去の状況の数に対する、実際に輻輳と判断すべき輻輳率以上の輻輳率の状況の数の割合を算出し、算出した割合を輻輳の発生確率とする。   As described above, in the mobile terminal management system of the present embodiment, among the past number of people in the calculation target base stations 3, 3..., The current people in the calculation target base stations 3, 3. Identify the situation that is similar to the situation of the number and count the number. Among the past situations similar to the situation of the current number of people in the calculation target base stations 3, 3,..., The congestion rate in the monitored base station 3 at the same date and time as this situation is actually the congestion. Count the number of situations that are above the congestion rate to be judged. Then, the ratio of the number of congestion rate situations equal to or higher than the congestion rate that should be actually judged as congestion to the number of past situations similar to the current number of people in the base stations 3, 3. Then, the calculated ratio is set as the congestion occurrence probability.

これにより、監視対象基地局3に対して予め設定された算出対象基地局3,3…における過去の在圏者数の状況に基づいて、監視対象基地局3における現在の輻輳の発生確率を予測することができる。   Thus, the current probability of congestion in the monitored base station 3 is predicted based on the number of people in the past in the calculation target base stations 3, 3... Preset for the monitored base station 3. can do.

以下に、本実施形態の管理サーバ1が行なう、監視対象基地局3,3…における輻輳の発生確率の算出処理についてフローチャートに基づいて説明する。図8は輻輳の発生確率の算出処理の手順を示すフローチャートである。なお、以下の処理は、管理サーバ1のROM11又はHDD13に格納されている各種の制御プログラムに従って制御部10によって実行される。   Below, the calculation process of the probability of occurrence of congestion in the monitoring target base stations 3, 3... Performed by the management server 1 of the present embodiment will be described based on a flowchart. FIG. 8 is a flowchart showing a procedure for calculating the occurrence probability of congestion. The following processing is executed by the control unit 10 according to various control programs stored in the ROM 11 or the HDD 13 of the management server 1.

なお、管理サーバ1の制御部10(基地局情報受信部10a)は、定期的に、通信インタフェース14を介して各基地局3,3…から、各基地局3,3…における在圏者数及び輻輳率、在圏者数及び輻輳率を取得した日時の情報を受信する。また、制御部10(基地局情報蓄積部10b)は、受信した日時の情報、在圏者数及び輻輳率を、これらの情報を送信した基地局3の基地局番号に対応させて、基地局情報テーブル13aに蓄積する。   The control unit 10 (base station information receiving unit 10a) of the management server 1 periodically receives the number of people in each base station 3, 3 ... from each base station 3, 3 ... via the communication interface 14. And information on the date and time when the congestion rate, the number of people in the service area, and the congestion rate are acquired. In addition, the control unit 10 (base station information storage unit 10b) associates the received date and time information, the number of people in the service area, and the congestion rate with the base station number of the base station 3 that transmitted the information. Accumulate in the information table 13a.

管理サーバ1の制御部10は、自身の時計が示す時刻に従って所定時間が経過したか否かを判断しており(S1)、所定時間が経過していないと判断した場合(S1:NO)、所定時間が経過するまで他の処理を行ないつつ待機する。   The control unit 10 of the management server 1 determines whether or not a predetermined time has elapsed according to the time indicated by its own clock (S1), and determines that the predetermined time has not elapsed (S1: NO), It waits while performing other processes until a predetermined time elapses.

所定時間が経過したと判断した場合(S1:YES)、制御部10(相関関係計算部10c)は、算出対象情報テーブル13cから1組の情報(監視対象基地局番号、算出対象基地局番号、算出対象期間)を読み出す(S2)。制御部10は、算出対象情報テーブル13cから読み出した情報に基づいて、情報蓄積テーブル13dを生成する(S3)。   When it is determined that the predetermined time has passed (S1: YES), the control unit 10 (correlation calculation unit 10c) sets a set of information (monitoring target base station number, calculation target base station number, The calculation target period) is read (S2). The control unit 10 generates the information accumulation table 13d based on the information read from the calculation target information table 13c (S3).

具体的には、制御部10は、算出対象情報テーブル13cから読み出した監視対象基地局番号についての情報蓄積テーブル13dを生成する。制御部10は、現在日時から、算出対象情報テーブル13cから読み出した算出対象期間遡った日時までの期間内における監視対象基地局の輻輳率を基地局情報テーブル13aから読み出し、情報蓄積テーブル13dに登録する。また、制御部10は、現在日時から、算出対象情報テーブル13cから読み出した算出対象期間遡った日時までの期間内における算出対象基地局の在圏者数及び算出対象基地局の最大収容数を基地局情報テーブル13aから読み出す。制御部10は、読み出した最大収容数に対する在圏者数の割合(在圏率)を算出し、算出した在圏率を情報蓄積テーブル13dに登録する。   Specifically, the control unit 10 generates an information accumulation table 13d for the monitoring target base station number read from the calculation target information table 13c. The control unit 10 reads from the base station information table 13a the congestion rate of the monitoring target base station in the period from the current date and time to the date and time that is read back from the calculation target period read from the calculation target information table 13c, and registers it in the information accumulation table 13d. To do. In addition, the control unit 10 determines the number of users in the calculation target base station and the maximum capacity of the calculation target base station within the period from the current date and time to the date and time that is read back from the calculation target information table 13c. Read from the station information table 13a. The control unit 10 calculates the ratio of the number of people in the area (the area ratio) to the read maximum accommodation number, and registers the calculated area ratio in the information accumulation table 13d.

次に制御部10は、現在日時における算出対象基地局3,3…の在圏率と、情報蓄積テーブル13dに蓄積された算出対象基地局3,3…の在圏率のそれぞれとの相関係数rを算出し、情報蓄積テーブル13dに登録する(S4)。   Next, the control unit 10 correlates between the coverage ratios of the calculation target base stations 3, 3,... At the current date and time and the coverage ratios of the calculation target base stations 3, 3,. The number r is calculated and registered in the information storage table 13d (S4).

制御部10(確率算出部10d)は、情報蓄積テーブル13dの登録内容に基づいて、監視対象基地局3における輻輳の発生確率を算出する(S5)。具体的には、制御部10は、情報蓄積テーブル13dに日時毎に蓄積されている情報のうちで、対応する相関係数が、基準情報テーブル13bから読み出した類似判定閾値以上である情報を特定し、特定した情報の数を計数する。また、制御部10は、相関係数が類似判定閾値以上であると特定した情報のうちで、対応する輻輳率が、基準情報テーブル13bから読み出した輻輳判定閾値以上である情報の数を計数する。そして、制御部10は、相関係数が類似判定閾値以上である情報の数に対する、輻輳率が輻輳判定閾値以上である情報の数の割合を輻輳の発生確率として算出する。   The control unit 10 (probability calculation unit 10d) calculates the probability of occurrence of congestion in the monitored base station 3 based on the registered contents of the information accumulation table 13d (S5). Specifically, the control unit 10 identifies information whose corresponding correlation coefficient is equal to or greater than the similarity determination threshold value read from the reference information table 13b among the information accumulated in the information accumulation table 13d for each date and time. And the number of identified information is counted. Moreover, the control part 10 counts the number of information whose corresponding congestion rate is more than the congestion determination threshold value read from the reference | standard information table 13b among the information which the correlation coefficient specified as being more than a similarity determination threshold value. . And the control part 10 calculates the ratio of the number of information whose congestion rate is more than a congestion determination threshold with respect to the number of information whose correlation coefficient is more than a similarity determination threshold as a congestion generation probability.

制御部10(通信部10e)は、算出した輻輳の発生確率が、基準情報テーブル13bから読み出した警告判定閾値以上であるか否かに基づいて、警告が必要であるか否かを判断する(S6)。制御部10は、警告が必要であると判断した場合(S6:YES)、即ち、算出した輻輳の発生確率が警告判定閾値以上である場合、ステップS2で算出対象情報テーブル13cから読み出した監視対象基地局番号の基地局3において輻輳が発生する可能性が高い旨を示すメッセージを端末装置2へ送信して警告する(S7)。   The control unit 10 (communication unit 10e) determines whether or not a warning is necessary based on whether or not the calculated congestion occurrence probability is equal to or higher than the warning determination threshold value read from the reference information table 13b ( S6). When the control unit 10 determines that the warning is necessary (S6: YES), that is, when the calculated congestion occurrence probability is equal to or higher than the warning determination threshold, the monitoring target read from the calculation target information table 13c in step S2 A message indicating that there is a high possibility that congestion will occur in the base station 3 of the base station number is sent to the terminal device 2 for warning (S7).

警告が必要ではないと判断した場合(S6:NO)、制御部10は、ステップS7の処理をスキップし、算出対象情報テーブル13cに登録された全ての情報を読み出したか否かを判断する(S8)。全ての情報を読み出していないと判断した場合(S8:NO)、制御部10は、ステップS2へ処理を戻し、算出対象情報テーブル13cから1組の情報を読み出し(S2)、読み出した情報に基づいて、ステップS3〜S8の処理を繰り返す。制御部10は、算出対象情報テーブル13cに登録された全ての情報を読み出したと判断した場合(S8:YES)、上述した処理を終了する。   When it is determined that no warning is necessary (S6: NO), the control unit 10 skips the process of step S7 and determines whether all information registered in the calculation target information table 13c has been read (S8). ). If it is determined that all information has not been read (S8: NO), the control unit 10 returns the process to step S2, reads a set of information from the calculation target information table 13c (S2), and based on the read information. Then, the processing of steps S3 to S8 is repeated. When it is determined that all information registered in the calculation target information table 13c has been read (S8: YES), the control unit 10 ends the above-described processing.

なお、監視対象基地局番号の基地局3において輻輳が発生する可能性が高い旨を示すメッセージを端末装置2へ送信する方法としては、例えば、電子メール、インスタントメッセンジャー、所定のファイル転送処理等を利用することができる。   As a method for transmitting a message indicating that there is a high possibility of congestion in the base station 3 of the monitored base station number to the terminal device 2, for example, e-mail, instant messenger, predetermined file transfer processing, etc. Can be used.

上述した実施形態では、算出対象情報テーブル13cにおいて、それぞれの監視対象基地局3に対応付けて、予め設定された算出対象基地局3,3…が登録してある構成を例に説明した。この構成のほかに、例えば、各基地局3,3…間の距離、関係等に基づいて、管理サーバ1が、監視対象基地局3と算出対象基地局3,3…とを自動的に設定するようにしてもよい。例えば、任意の基地局3を監視対象基地局とした場合に、この基地局3から所定距離までの領域にある基地局3,3…を算出対象基地局として算出対象情報テーブル13cに自動的に登録するように管理サーバ1を構成することもできる。   In the above-described embodiment, an example has been described in which the calculation target base stations 3, 3,... Are registered in association with the respective monitoring target base stations 3 in the calculation target information table 13c. In addition to this configuration, for example, the management server 1 automatically sets the monitoring target base station 3 and the calculation target base stations 3, 3... Based on the distance, relationship, etc. between the base stations 3, 3. You may make it do. For example, when an arbitrary base station 3 is set as a monitoring target base station, base stations 3, 3... In a region from the base station 3 to a predetermined distance are automatically set as calculation target base stations in the calculation target information table 13c. The management server 1 can also be configured to register.

また、例えば、競技場、コンサート会場、遊園地等の各施設に設置されている基地局3を監視対象基地局とし、これらの施設の最寄り駅の近傍に設置されている基地局3,3…を算出対象基地局として算出対象情報テーブル13cに自動的に登録するように管理サーバ1を構成することもできる。   Further, for example, base stations 3 installed in each facility such as a stadium, concert venue, amusement park, etc. are set as base stations to be monitored, and base stations 3, 3 installed in the vicinity of the nearest station of these facilities. The management server 1 can also be configured to automatically register as a calculation target base station in the calculation target information table 13c.

なお、算出対象基地局に複数の基地局3,3…を設定した場合、複数の基地局3,3…のそれぞれの在圏率を1まとまり(1組)として、現在日時における在圏率と、過去の日時における在圏率との相関係数(類似度)が算出されるので、類似関係(相関関係)がより明確に表わされる。従って、算出対象基地局に1つの基地局3を設定した場合よりも精度よく監視対象基地局3における輻輳の発生確率を予測することができる。   When a plurality of base stations 3, 3... Are set as calculation target base stations, the coverage ratios at the current date and time are defined as a set (one set) of the coverage ratios of the plurality of base stations 3, 3. Since the correlation coefficient (similarity) with the coverage ratio at the past date and time is calculated, the similarity (correlation) is expressed more clearly. Therefore, it is possible to predict the occurrence probability of congestion in the monitoring target base station 3 with higher accuracy than when one base station 3 is set as the calculation target base station.

上述した実施形態では、相関関係計算部10cが、情報蓄積テーブル13dに蓄積された各日時における算出対象基地局の在圏率の全てに対して、現在日時における算出対象基地局の在圏率との相関係数を算出する構成であった。これに対して、例えば、情報蓄積テーブル13dに蓄積された算出対象基地局の在圏率のうちの、現在日時と同じ時刻又は同じ時間帯での在圏率に対して、現在日時における在圏率との相関係数を算出する構成としてもよい。   In the above-described embodiment, the correlation calculation unit 10c uses the coverage ratio of the calculation target base station at the current date and time for all the coverage ratios of the calculation target base stations at each date and time accumulated in the information accumulation table 13d. The correlation coefficient was calculated. On the other hand, for example, out of the coverage ratio of the calculation target base station stored in the information storage table 13d, the coverage ratio at the same time or the same time zone as the current date and time, It is good also as a structure which calculates the correlation coefficient with a rate.

この場合、同じ時刻又は時間帯における過去の在圏率の履歴と、現在時刻における在圏率との相関係数に基づいて、現在日時の監視対象基地局における輻輳の発生確率を算出する。従って、算出される輻輳の発生確率に影響を与える可能性の少ない過去の在圏率との相関係数の算出処理を行なわないので、相関係数を効率よく実行することができると共に、情報蓄積テーブル13dに蓄積すべき情報量を削減できる。特に、通勤時間帯に輻輳が発生する可能性の高い基地局の場合、通勤時間帯における過去の在圏率の履歴と、現在時刻(通勤時間帯の時刻)における在圏率との相関係数に基づいて、現在時刻における輻輳の発生確率を効率よく算出することができる。   In this case, the probability of occurrence of congestion in the monitored base station at the current date and time is calculated based on the correlation coefficient between the historical coverage ratio at the same time or time zone and the historical coverage ratio at the current time. Therefore, since the correlation coefficient calculation process with the past location rate that is unlikely to affect the calculated congestion occurrence probability is not performed, the correlation coefficient can be executed efficiently and information is stored. The amount of information to be stored in the table 13d can be reduced. In particular, in the case of a base station that is highly likely to be congested during commuting hours, the correlation coefficient between the history of the past coverage rate in the commuting time zone and the presence rate at the current time (commuting time zone time) Based on the above, it is possible to efficiently calculate the probability of occurrence of congestion at the current time.

また、同様に、情報蓄積テーブル13dに蓄積された算出対象基地局の在圏率のうちの、現在日時と同じ日付における各時刻での在圏率に対して、現在日時における在圏率との相関係数を算出する構成としてもよい。   Similarly, among the coverage ratios of the calculation target base stations stored in the information storage table 13d, the coverage ratio at each time on the same date as the current date and time, The correlation coefficient may be calculated.

上述した実施形態では、情報蓄積テーブル13dを、10分間隔の各日時に対応させて各種の情報を蓄積する構成としていた。しかし、このような構成に限られず、数分間隔又は数10分間隔の各日時に対応させて各種の情報を蓄積させてもよく、また、予め設定された所定の時間帯毎に各種の情報を情報蓄積テーブル13dに登録させてもよい。   In the above-described embodiment, the information storage table 13d is configured to store various types of information corresponding to each date and time at 10-minute intervals. However, the present invention is not limited to such a configuration, and various types of information may be stored in correspondence with each date and time of several minutes or several tens of minutes, and various information may be stored for each predetermined time zone set in advance. May be registered in the information storage table 13d.

上述した実施形態では、情報蓄積テーブル13dに蓄積された算出対象基地局の各日時における在圏率と、現在日時における在圏率との相関係数に基づいて、監視対象基地局の現在時刻における輻輳の発生確率を算出する構成を例に説明した。これに対して、情報蓄積テーブル13dに蓄積された算出対象基地局の各日時における在圏率と、任意の日時(所定日時)における在圏率との相関係数を算出する構成としてもよい。この場合、算出された相関係数に基づいて、監視対象基地局の任意の日時における輻輳の発生確率を算出することもできる。   In the above-described embodiment, based on the correlation coefficient between the coverage ratio at each date and time of the calculation target base station accumulated in the information accumulation table 13d and the coverage ratio at the current date and time, at the current time of the monitored base station. The configuration for calculating the occurrence probability of congestion has been described as an example. On the other hand, it is good also as a structure which calculates the correlation coefficient of the coverage ratio in each date of the calculation object base station accumulate | stored in the information storage table 13d, and the coverage ratio in arbitrary dates (predetermined date). In this case, it is possible to calculate the occurrence probability of congestion at an arbitrary date and time of the monitoring target base station based on the calculated correlation coefficient.

上述した実施形態では、情報蓄積テーブル13dに蓄積された算出対象基地局の過去の在圏率の履歴に基づいて、監視対象基地局における輻輳の発生確率を算出する構成を例に説明した。しかし、このような構成に限られず、例えば、算出対象基地局の過去のトラヒック量、輻輳率等、算出対象基地局のエリア内に在圏する携帯電話機4,4…の通信状態を示す各種情報に基づいて、監視対象基地局における輻輳の発生確率を算出する構成とすることもできる。   In the above-described embodiment, the configuration in which the occurrence probability of congestion in the monitoring target base station is calculated based on the past coverage ratio history of the calculation target base station accumulated in the information accumulation table 13d has been described as an example. However, the present invention is not limited to such a configuration. For example, various types of information indicating the communication state of the mobile phones 4, 4... Located in the area of the calculation target base station, such as the past traffic volume and congestion rate of the calculation target base station The probability of occurrence of congestion in the monitored base station can be calculated based on the above.

本実施形態に係る携帯端末管理システムの構成を示す模式図である。It is a schematic diagram which shows the structure of the portable terminal management system which concerns on this embodiment. 管理サーバの構成を示すブロック図である。It is a block diagram which shows the structure of a management server. 基地局情報テーブルの登録内容を示す模式図である。It is a schematic diagram which shows the registration content of a base station information table. 基準情報テーブル及び算出対象情報テーブルの登録内容を示す模式図である。It is a schematic diagram which shows the registration content of a reference | standard information table and a calculation object information table. 基地局の構成を示すブロック図である。It is a block diagram which shows the structure of a base station. 管理サーバの機能構成を示す機能ブロック図である。It is a functional block diagram which shows the function structure of a management server. 情報蓄積テーブルの登録内容を示す模式図である。It is a schematic diagram which shows the registration content of an information storage table. 輻輳の発生確率の算出処理の手順を示すフローチャートである。It is a flowchart which shows the procedure of the calculation process of the occurrence probability of congestion.

符号の説明Explanation of symbols

1 管理サーバ(管理装置)
3 基地局(中継装置)
4 携帯電話機(通信装置)
10 制御部
10c 相関関係計算部(輻輳率取得手段、状態情報取得手段、類似度算出手段)
10d 確率算出部(状態情報計数手段、輻輳率計数手段、割合算出手段)
13 HDD
13d 情報蓄積テーブル(記憶手段)
1 management server (management device)
3 Base station (relay device)
4 Mobile phone (communication device)
10 control unit 10c correlation calculation unit (congestion rate acquisition unit, state information acquisition unit, similarity calculation unit)
10d probability calculation unit (state information counting means, congestion rate counting means, ratio calculating means)
13 HDD
13d Information accumulation table (storage means)

Claims (5)

複数の中継装置を介して他の通信装置と通信を行なう通信装置を管理する管理装置において、
所定の中継装置における輻輳率を随時取得する輻輳率取得手段と、
前記所定の中継装置に対して予め設定された他の中継装置と通信可能な領域内の通信装置の状態情報を随時取得する状態情報取得手段と、
予め設定してある複数の時間帯毎に、前記輻輳率取得手段が取得した輻輳率及び、前記状態情報取得手段が取得した状態情報を逐次記憶する記憶手段と、
前記状態情報取得手段が取得した所定時間帯での状態情報及び前記記憶手段に記憶してある各状態情報の類似度をそれぞれ算出する類似度算出手段と、
前記記憶手段に記憶してある状態情報のうちで、前記類似度算出手段が算出した類似度が所定値以上である状態情報の数を計数する状態情報計数手段と、
前記類似度算出手段が算出した類似度が所定値以上である状態情報と同一時間帯で前記記憶手段に記憶してある輻輳率のうちで所定値以上の輻輳率の数を計数する輻輳率計数手段と、
前記状態情報計数手段が計数した状態情報の数に対する、前記輻輳率計数手段が計数した輻輳率の数の割合を算出する割合算出手段と、
該割合算出手段が算出した割合に基づいて、前記所定の中継装置における前記所定時間帯での輻輳状態を予測する手段と
を備えることを特徴とする管理装置。
In a management device that manages communication devices that communicate with other communication devices via a plurality of relay devices,
A congestion rate acquisition means for acquiring a congestion rate in a predetermined relay device as needed;
Status information acquisition means for acquiring status information of a communication device in an area communicable with another relay device set in advance for the predetermined relay device;
Storage means for sequentially storing the congestion rate acquired by the congestion rate acquisition means and the status information acquired by the status information acquisition means for each of a plurality of preset time zones;
Similarity information calculating means for calculating the state information acquired by the state information acquiring means in the predetermined time zone and the similarity of each state information stored in the storage means;
Among the state information stored in the storage means, state information counting means for counting the number of state information whose similarity calculated by the similarity calculating means is a predetermined value or more,
Congestion rate counter that counts the number of congestion rates that are equal to or greater than a predetermined value among the congestion rates that are stored in the storage unit in the same time zone as the state information that the similarity calculated by the similarity calculation unit is equal to or greater than a predetermined value Means,
A ratio calculating means for calculating a ratio of the number of congestion rates counted by the congestion rate counting means to the number of state information counted by the state information counting means;
A management apparatus comprising: means for predicting a congestion state in the predetermined time zone in the predetermined relay apparatus based on the ratio calculated by the ratio calculation means.
前記状態情報は、前記時間帯における前記他の中継装置と通信可能な領域内の通信装置の数であることを特徴とする請求項1に記載の管理装置。   The management apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the status information is the number of communication apparatuses in an area in which communication with the other relay apparatus is possible in the time period. 前記状態情報取得手段は、複数の他の中継装置のそれぞれにおける状態情報を取得するように構成してあり、
前記記憶手段は、前記状態情報取得手段が取得した前記複数の他の中継装置のそれぞれにおける状態情報を1組として時間帯毎に記憶する構成としてあり、
前記類似度算出手段は、前記状態情報取得手段が取得した所定時間帯での前記複数の他の中継装置のそれぞれにおける状態情報と、前記記憶手段に記憶してある各組の状態情報との類似度をそれぞれ算出するように構成してあり、
前記状態情報計数手段は、前記記憶手段に記憶してある各組の状態情報のうちで、前記類似度算出手段が算出した類似度が所定値以上である状態情報の組数を計数するように構成してあること
を特徴とする請求項1又は2に記載の管理装置。
The status information acquisition means is configured to acquire status information in each of a plurality of other relay devices,
The storage unit is configured to store the state information in each of the plurality of other relay devices acquired by the state information acquisition unit as a set for each time period,
The similarity calculation means is similar to the state information in each of the plurality of other relay devices in the predetermined time zone acquired by the state information acquisition means and the state information of each set stored in the storage means Configured to calculate each degree,
The state information counting unit counts the number of sets of state information in which the similarity calculated by the similarity calculation unit is equal to or greater than a predetermined value among the sets of state information stored in the storage unit. The management apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the management apparatus is configured.
複数の中継装置を介して他の通信装置と通信を行なう通信装置を管理する管理装置による管理方法において、
予め設定してある複数の時間帯毎に、所定の中継装置における輻輳率及び、前記所定の中継装置に対して予め設定された他の中継装置と通信可能な領域内の通信装置の状態情報を逐次記憶手段に記憶させるステップと、
所定時間帯での前記状態情報及び前記記憶手段に記憶してある各状態情報の類似度をそれぞれ算出する類似度算出ステップと、
前記記憶手段に記憶してある状態情報のうちで、前記類似度算出ステップで算出した類似度が所定値以上である状態情報の数を計数する状態情報計数ステップと、
前記類似度算出ステップで算出した類似度が所定値以上である状態情報と同一時間帯で前記記憶手段に記憶してある輻輳率のうちで所定値以上の輻輳率の数を計数する輻輳率計数ステップと、
前記状態情報計数ステップで計数した状態情報の数に対する、前記輻輳率計数ステップで計数した輻輳率の数の割合を算出する割合算出ステップと、
該割合算出ステップで算出した割合に基づいて、前記所定の中継装置における前記所定時間帯での輻輳状態を予測するステップと
を含むことを特徴とする管理方法。
In a management method by a management device that manages a communication device that communicates with another communication device via a plurality of relay devices,
For each of a plurality of preset time zones, the congestion rate in a predetermined relay device and the status information of the communication device in an area communicable with another relay device set in advance for the predetermined relay device. Storing in the sequential storage means;
A degree of similarity calculation step for calculating the degree of similarity between the state information in a predetermined time zone and the state information stored in the storage unit;
Among the state information stored in the storage means, a state information counting step for counting the number of state information whose similarity calculated in the similarity calculating step is a predetermined value or more,
A congestion rate counter that counts the number of congestion rates that are greater than or equal to a predetermined value among the congestion rates that are stored in the storage means in the same time zone as the state information that has a similarity calculated at the similarity level that is greater than or equal to a predetermined value. Steps,
A ratio calculating step for calculating a ratio of the number of congestion rates counted in the congestion rate counting step to the number of state information counted in the state information counting step;
Predicting a congestion state in the predetermined time zone in the predetermined relay apparatus based on the ratio calculated in the ratio calculating step.
コンピュータに、複数の中継装置を介して他の通信装置と通信を行なう通信装置を管理させるためのコンピュータプログラムにおいて、
予め設定してある複数の時間帯毎に、所定の中継装置における輻輳率及び、前記所定の中継装置に対して予め設定された他の中継装置と通信可能な領域内の通信装置の状態情報を逐次記憶する記憶手段を備えるコンピュータに、
所定時間帯での前記状態情報及び前記記憶手段に記憶してある各状態情報の類似度をそれぞれ算出する類似度算出ステップと、
前記記憶手段に記憶してある状態情報のうちで、前記類似度算出ステップで算出した類似度が所定値以上である状態情報の数を計数する状態情報計数ステップと、
前記類似度算出ステップで算出した類似度が所定値以上である状態情報と同一時間帯で前記記憶手段に記憶してある輻輳率のうちで所定値以上の輻輳率の数を計数する輻輳率計数ステップと、
前記状態情報計数ステップで計数した状態情報の数に対する、前記輻輳率計数ステップで計数した輻輳率の数の割合を算出する割合算出ステップと、
該割合算出ステップで算出した割合に基づいて、前記所定の中継装置における前記所定時間帯での輻輳状態を予測するステップと
を実行させるためのコンピュータプログラム。
In a computer program for causing a computer to manage a communication device that communicates with another communication device via a plurality of relay devices,
For each of a plurality of preset time zones, the congestion rate in a predetermined relay device and the status information of the communication device in an area communicable with another relay device set in advance for the predetermined relay device. In a computer having storage means for sequentially storing,
A degree of similarity calculation step for calculating the degree of similarity between the state information in a predetermined time zone and the state information stored in the storage unit;
Among the state information stored in the storage means, a state information counting step for counting the number of state information whose similarity calculated in the similarity calculating step is a predetermined value or more,
A congestion rate counter that counts the number of congestion rates that are greater than or equal to a predetermined value among the congestion rates that are stored in the storage means in the same time zone as the state information that has a similarity calculated at the similarity level that is greater than or equal to a predetermined value. Steps,
A ratio calculating step for calculating a ratio of the number of congestion rates counted in the congestion rate counting step to the number of state information counted in the state information counting step;
A computer program for executing a step of predicting a congestion state in the predetermined time zone in the predetermined relay device based on the ratio calculated in the ratio calculating step.
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A300 Application deemed to be withdrawn because no request for examination was validly filed

Free format text: JAPANESE INTERMEDIATE CODE: A300

Effective date: 20110510