JP2009212707A - Controller, control method and computer program - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a controller that estimates current congestion conditions in an area of a predetermined repeating installation on the basis of past communication condition in an area of other repeating installations that is set to the predetermined repeating installation. <P>SOLUTION: A control section 10 periodically generates an information accumulation table 13d listing the existence rate of base stations to be calculated at each time and the congestion rate of base stations to be monitored concerning each of the base stations to be monitored. The control section 10 also calculates a relative coefficient between the existence rate of the base stations to be calculated at current time and the existence rate thereof accumulated in the information accumulation table 13d. Furthermore, the control section 10 counts information of which calculated relative coefficient is a similar decision threshold or more among the information of the information accumulation table 13d, and it also counts the number of information of which congestion rate is a congestion decision threshold or more. The control section 10 calculates a ratio of the number of information having the congestion decision threshold or more in congestion rate to the number of information having the similar decision threshold or more in relative coefficient, resulting in the probability of congestion. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2009,JPO&INPIT

Description

  The present invention relates to a management device that manages a communication device that communicates with another communication device via a plurality of relay devices, a management method, and a computer program for realizing the operation of the management device by a computer.

  Mobile terminals such as mobile phones and personal handy-phone systems (PHS) are widely used. The mobile terminal communicates with a mobile terminal of a communication partner via a network such as a telephone line network. A plurality of base stations are connected to the network, and the mobile terminal can wirelessly communicate with the nearest base station. The mobile terminal connects to the network via the nearest base station and communicates with the mobile terminal of the communication partner. Communication between the two.

  Since a base station performs wireless communication with a mobile terminal located within an area (area) where wireless communication with the base station can be performed, a plurality of mobile terminals in each base station area have one Share base stations. In order to ensure a certain level of communication quality (call quality) in communication between a base station and a mobile terminal, the number of mobile terminals that each base station can communicate with is limited. When the number of mobile terminals communicating simultaneously with each base station increases, communication via each base station becomes congested, making it difficult to make calls from mobile terminals in this area, interrupting calls during communication, etc. Failure occurs.

In view of this, there has been proposed an apparatus that appropriately performs various kinds of restriction control such as monitoring a congestion state in a network and restricting, for example, portable terminals that newly start communication according to the congestion state (see, for example, Patent Document 1). ). By using such an apparatus, when communication is congested, it is possible to eliminate communication congestion by appropriate regulation control.
JP 2001-309036 A

  However, since occurrence of communication congestion cannot be predicted, various kinds of regulation control can be performed only when congestion occurs. Therefore, there is a demand for a system that can predict the occurrence of congestion in advance.

  The present invention has been made in view of such circumstances, and an object of the present invention is, for example, a past communication state in an area of a predetermined relay device and other relay devices preset for the relay device. Another object of the present invention is to provide a management device, a management method, and a computer program capable of predicting a congestion state in an area of a predetermined relay device in a predetermined time zone based on a terminal state.

  The management device is characterized in that, in a management device that manages a communication device that communicates with other communication devices via a plurality of relay devices, the congestion rate in the predetermined relay device and the predetermined relay device are preset. The status information of the communication device in the area communicable with the other relay device is acquired as needed, and the acquired congestion rate and status information are sequentially stored in the storage means for each of a plurality of preset time zones. In the point. In addition, the management device is characterized in that the similarity between the state information acquired in a predetermined time zone and the state information stored in the storage unit for each time zone is calculated, and the calculated similarity is a predetermined value. While counting the number of state information above, the number of congestion rates greater than a predetermined value among the congestion rates stored in the storage means in the same time zone as the state information whose calculated similarity is greater than or equal to a predetermined value. Counting is performed, and the ratio of the counted congestion rate to the counted number of state information is calculated, and based on the calculated ratio, the congestion state in the predetermined time zone in the predetermined relay device is predicted.

  According to this management apparatus, the congestion rate in a predetermined relay apparatus and the status information of the communication apparatus in an area (area) communicable with another relay apparatus set in advance for the predetermined relay apparatus are 1 One history information is accumulated for each time zone. Then, the degree of similarity between the state information acquired in a predetermined time zone such as the current time and the state information of each accumulated history information is calculated, and the number of state information (history information) whose similarity is equal to or greater than a predetermined value Count. Therefore, among the accumulated history information, the number of history information whose state information is more than predetermined similar to the state information in the predetermined time zone is counted. In addition, among history information whose state information is similar to the state information in a predetermined time period by a predetermined amount or more, the number of history information whose congestion rate is a predetermined value or more is counted.

  Then, a ratio of the number of history information whose congestion rate is a predetermined value or more to the number of history information whose state information is similar to the state information in a predetermined time period or more is calculated, and based on the calculated ratio, the predetermined information A congestion state in a predetermined time zone in the area of the relay device is predicted. Therefore, among the past history information in other relay apparatuses, it is assumed that the state information is actually congested with respect to the number of history information that is similar to the state information in other relay apparatuses in a predetermined time zone. Based on the ratio of the number of history information, it becomes possible to predict a congestion state in a predetermined time zone within the area of the predetermined relay device.

  The disclosed management device, for example, by setting a relay device in the vicinity of a predetermined relay device as another relay device, based on the past state information in the area of the nearby relay device, the current time etc. There is an effect that it is possible to predict the possibility of congestion occurring in an area of a predetermined relay device in a predetermined time zone.

  Below, the management apparatus which concerns on this invention, and the process which concerns on the management method of this invention are explained in full detail based on drawing which shows the embodiment. First, a portable terminal management system including a management device according to the present invention will be described. FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram showing a configuration of a mobile terminal management system according to the present embodiment. The mobile terminal management system of the present embodiment includes a management server (management device) 1 managed by a communication carrier (communication carrier), a plurality of base stations (relay devices) 3, 3,... Cellular phones (communication devices) 4, 4... That communicate with each other.

  The management server 1 and the plurality of base stations 3, 3,... Are connected via a network N such as a public telephone line network. The management server 1 is connected to a terminal device 2 managed by the same communication carrier via, for example, a local area network (LAN), and the LAN is connected to the network N via, for example, a router (not shown). ing. The terminal device 2 is a personal computer, for example, and is a device handled by a person in charge (maintenance person) who performs maintenance of the mobile terminal management system.

  The base stations 3, 3... Perform wireless communication with the mobile phones 4, 4... Located in a predetermined area (area) centered on the base stations 3, 4. As described above, each of the base stations 3, 3... Performs wireless communication with the mobile phones 4, 4. Therefore, when the mobile telephones 4, 4... Move from the area of one base station 3 to the area of another base station 3, communication is performed by appropriately switching the nearest base station 3 that performs wireless communication.

  FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing the configuration of the management server 1. The management server 1 of this embodiment implement | achieves the function of the management apparatus of this invention by making a well-known personal computer read and run the computer program which concerns on this invention, for example. Note that the management server 1 of this embodiment may be configured by a dedicated device.

  The management server 1 according to the present embodiment includes a control unit 10, a read only memory (ROM) 11, a random access memory (RAM) 12, a hard disk drive (HDD) 13, a communication interface 14, and the like. Each is connected to each other via a bus 1a.

  The control unit 10 is a central processing unit (CPU) or a micro processor unit (MPU) that includes a clock (not shown), and reads and executes a control program stored in advance in the ROM 11 or the HDD 13 to the RAM 12 as appropriate. The operation of each hardware unit described above is controlled. The ROM 11 stores in advance various control programs necessary for operating the management server 1 as the management device of the present invention. The RAM 12 is an SRAM or a flash memory, and temporarily stores various data generated when the control unit 10 executes the control program.

  The HDD 13 is a large capacity storage device. The HDD 13 includes various control programs necessary for operating the management server 1 as the management apparatus of the present invention, a base station information table 13a as shown in FIG. 3, a reference information table 13b as shown in FIG. A calculation target information table 13c as shown in FIG. 4B and an information accumulation table 13d as shown in FIG. 7 are stored.

  The communication interface 14 is connected to the terminal device 2 via a LAN, for example, and is connected to the network N via a router connected to the LAN.

  FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram showing the registration contents of the base station information table 13a. In the base station information table 13a, as shown in FIG. 3, the base station number assigned to each base station 3, 3... And the maximum accommodation number of each base station 3, 3. Further, in the base station information table 13a, the date and time, the number of people at each date and time, the congestion rate at each date and time, and the like are registered in association with the base station numbers of the base stations 3, 3.

  The maximum accommodation number of each base station 3, 3... Is a number set in advance according to the performance of each base station 3, 3. The base stations 3, 3... Are predetermined with the mobile phones 4, 4... That are located in their own area even when the mobile phones 4, 4. The number (number of people) of mobile phones 4, 4... Capable of transmitting / receiving such data is the maximum accommodation number.

  The registration contents of the base station number column and the maximum accommodated number column of the base station information table 13a are registered in advance, and when a new base station 3 is provided, the maintenance person of the portable terminal management system Each time the base station number and the maximum accommodation number are input via the terminal device 2, they are registered by the control unit 10. Further, when the maximum accommodation number is changed by improving the performance of the base station 3 already registered in the base station information table 13a, the maintenance person of the portable terminal management system sets the maximum accommodation number via the terminal device 2. Every time it is input, it is updated by the control unit 10.

  The registration contents of the date / time column, the number of people in the base station, and the column of the congestion rate in the base station information table 13a are controlled whenever the number of people in the base station and the congestion rate are periodically acquired from each base station 3, 3. Registered by the unit 10. In addition, when the management server 1 has also acquired information on the date and time when the number of people in the service area and the congestion rate are acquired from the base stations 3, 3. The date / time, the number of people in the service area, and the congestion rate acquired from the base stations 3, 3,.

  When each base station 3, 3... Acquires the number of people in the service area and the congestion rate, it transmits to the management server 1 in real time. The number of people and the congestion rate may be registered in the corresponding fields of the base station information table 13a together with the date and time indicated by its own clock when the number of people in the service area and the congestion rate are acquired.

  FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram showing the registration contents of the reference information table 13b and the calculation target information table 13c. In the reference information table 13b, as shown in FIG. 4A, a similarity determination threshold, a congestion determination threshold, a warning determination threshold, and the like are associated with the monitoring target base station number for specifying the monitoring target base station 3. Is registered. The monitoring target base station 3 is a target base station 3 that monitors the possibility of congestion. The similarity determination threshold value, the congestion determination threshold value, and the warning determination threshold value are threshold values used for calculation processing of the probability of occurrence of congestion, which will be described later, performed on the monitored base station 3.

  The registration contents of the reference information table 13b are registered in advance, and when a base station 3 to be monitored is newly added, the maintenance person of the mobile terminal management system can monitor the base to be monitored via the terminal device 2. Each time the station number and various threshold values are input, the control unit 10 registers them. Further, when each threshold value already registered in the reference information table 13b is changed, it is updated by the control unit 10 every time a maintenance person of the portable terminal management system inputs various threshold values via the terminal device 2.

  In the calculation target information table 13c, as shown in FIG. 4B, the calculation target base station 3 is specified in association with the monitoring target base station number for specifying the monitoring target base station 3. A calculation target base station number, a calculation target period, and the like are registered. The calculation target base station 3 is a base station set in advance for the base station (predetermined relay device) 3 to be monitored, and the probability of occurrence of congestion described later performed for the base station 3 to be monitored. The base station 3 uses data when calculating various types of information (specifically, correlation coefficients) in the calculation process. The calculation target period is a period related to data used when various types of information are calculated in the calculation processing of the probability of occurrence of congestion described later.

  The registration contents of the calculation target information table 13c are registered in advance, and when a base station 3 to be monitored is newly added, the maintenance person of the mobile terminal management system can monitor the target of monitoring via the terminal device 2. Each time the base station number, the base station number to be calculated, and the calculation target period are input, they are registered by the control unit 10. In addition, when the base station number or the calculation target period already registered in the calculation target information table 13c is changed, the maintenance person of the portable terminal management system can calculate the base station number to be calculated via the terminal device 2. Alternatively, it is updated by the control unit 10 every time the calculation target period is input.

  Since the information accumulation table 13d is generated by the control unit 10 during the calculation process of the probability of occurrence of congestion, which will be described later, the registration contents of the information accumulation table 13d will be described later.

  FIG. 5 is a block diagram showing the configuration of the base station 3. The base station 3 of this embodiment includes a control unit 30, a ROM 31, a RAM 32, an HDD 33, a communication interface 34 for connecting to the network N, a wireless communication unit 35, and the like, and these hardware units are respectively connected via a bus 3a. Are connected to each other.

  The control unit 30 is a CPU or MPU equipped with a clock (not shown), reads out and executes a control program stored in advance in the ROM 31 or HDD 33 to the RAM 32 as appropriate, and controls the operation of each hardware unit described above. To do. The ROM 31 stores various control programs necessary for operating as the base station 3 in advance. The RAM 32 is an SRAM or a flash memory, and temporarily stores various data generated when the control unit 30 executes the control program.

  The wireless communication unit 35 is connected to an antenna 35a that transmits and receives radio waves for wireless communication with the mobile phones 4, 4,..., And in accordance with an instruction from the control unit 30, its own base station 3 is connected via the antenna 35a. Connection with the mobile phones 4, 4.

  The HDD 33 is a large-capacity storage device. The HDD 33 stores various control programs necessary for operating as the base station 3, a terminal management table 33a, and the like. Although not shown, information (for example, telephone numbers) of mobile phones 4, 4... Located in the area of the base station 3 is registered in the terminal management table 33a.

  In addition, the base station 3 periodically determines whether or not the mobile phones 4, 4... Are communicating with the mobile phones 4, 4. Sending and receiving data. Therefore, whenever the mobile phone 4 enters the area of its own base station 3 and starts communication with the mobile phone 4 via the wireless communication unit 35, the control unit 30 displays the information of the mobile phone 4 as a terminal. Register in the management table 33a. In addition, when the mobile phone 4 goes out of the area of its own base station 3 and communication with the mobile phone 4 via the wireless communication unit 35 is interrupted for a predetermined time or longer, the control unit 30 The information is deleted from the terminal management table 33a.

  In this way, each base station 3, 3... Is located in its own area by registering or deleting information of each mobile phone 4, 4... Entering / exiting its own area in the terminal management table 33a. It is possible to grasp the mobile terminals 4, 4.

  Hereinafter, in the management server 1 having the above-described configuration, functions realized by the control unit 10 executing a control program stored in the ROM 11 or the HDD 13 will be described. FIG. 6 is a functional block diagram showing a functional configuration of the management server 1.

  In the management server 1 of the present embodiment, the control unit 10 executes a control program stored in the ROM 11 or the HDD 13 to thereby execute a base station information receiving unit 10a, a base station information accumulating unit 10b, a correlation calculating unit 10c, Each function of the probability calculation unit 10d, the notification unit 10e, and the like is realized. The correlation calculation unit 10c and the probability calculation unit 10d execute a calculation process of the probability of occurrence of congestion with respect to the base station 3 to be monitored.

  The base station information receiving unit 10a acquires the number of people in the base station, the congestion rate, the number of people in the base station, and the congestion rate from the base stations 3, 3. Receive the information. The congestion rate is periodically calculated in each base station 3, 3,..., For example, the actual communication is performed with respect to the number of mobile phones 4, 4. It is represented by the ratio (%) of the number of mobile phones 4, 4.

  The base station information storage unit 10b associates the date and time information received by the base station information reception unit 10a, the number of people in the service area, and the congestion rate with the base station number of the base station 3 that has transmitted the information. Accumulate in the corresponding column of the information table 13a.

  The correlation calculation unit 10c executes correlation calculation processing for each of the base stations 3 indicated by the monitored base station numbers registered in the calculation target information table 13c at a predetermined timing, as shown in FIG. The information storage table 13d is generated. FIG. 7 is a schematic diagram showing the registered contents of the information accumulation table 13d.

  The correlation calculation unit 10c first reads a set of information from the calculation target information table 13c. Here, it is assumed that the monitoring target base station number “0010”, the calculation target base station number “0008,0009, 0011”, and the calculation target period “1440” are read from the calculation target information table 13c illustrated in FIG. .

  The correlation calculation unit 10c generates the information accumulation table 13d for the monitoring target base station number “0010” read from the calculation target information table 13c. That is, the correlation calculation unit 10c displays the columns of date and time, the coverage ratio, the congestion rate, and the correlation coefficient of the calculation target base stations 3, 3, and 3 (base stations “0008”, “0009”, and “0011”). The information storage table 13 d is generated and stored in the HDD 13.

  Next, the correlation calculation unit 10c calculates the date and time retroactive to the calculation target period read from the calculation target information table 13c from the current date and time indicated by the clock of the control unit 10. Then, the correlation calculation unit (congestion rate acquisition unit) 10c performs the congestion at each date / time within the period from the calculated date / time to the current date / time for the base station (predetermined relay device) 3 of the monitored base station number “0010”. The rate is read from the base station information table 13a, and the read date and time and the congestion rate are associated with each other and registered in the information accumulation table (storage means) 13d.

  Next, the correlation calculation unit (state information acquisition unit) 10c registers each base station 3, 3... Of the calculation target base station number “0008, 0009, 0011”, registered in the date / time column of the information accumulation table 13d. The number of people at the date and time (status information) is read from the base station information table 13a. Further, the correlation calculation unit 10c reads out the maximum accommodation number of each base station 3, 3,... Of the calculation target base station number “0008, 0009, 0011” from the base station information table 13a, and is located in the area corresponding to the read maximum accommodation number. Calculate the ratio of the number of people (location ratio). The correlation calculation unit 10c registers the coverage ratio calculated for each base station 3, 3... Of the calculation target base station number “0008, 0009, 0011” in the information storage table (storage means) 13d in association with the date and time. To do.

  Next, the correlation calculation unit (similarity calculating means) 10c calculates the coverage ratio of the calculation target base stations 3, 3, 3 at the current date and time, and the calculation target base stations 3, 3, 3 stored in the information storage table 13d. The correlation coefficient (similarity) r with each of the coverage ratios is calculated using the formula shown in Equation 1 (1). The mathematical formula shown in Equation 1 (1) is a formula for calculating the Pearson product moment correlation coefficient. The correlation coefficient (similarity) between the coverage ratios of the calculation target base stations 3, 3 and 3 at the current date and time and the coverage ratios of the calculation target base stations 3, 3 and 3 stored in the information storage table 13d. If so, it is not limited to Pearson's product moment correlation coefficient.

Here, it is assumed that the information registered at the bottom of the information accumulation table 13d shown in FIG. 7 is information on the current date and time, the current date and time is “2008/2/1 10:00”, and the calculation target base station “0008” ”,“ 0009 ”, and“ 0011 ”will be described by taking, as an example, the calculation processing of the correlation coefficient when the coverage ratio at the current date and time is 0.3, 0.5, and 0.2. Since there are three calculation target base stations 3, 3, and 3, the correlation calculation unit 10 c substitutes 3 for n in the equation shown in Equation 1 (1) to obtain the equation shown in Equation 1 (2). Then, the correlation calculation unit 10c calculates the calculation target base stations “0008” and “0009” at each date and time stored in the information storage table 13d in x ₁ , x ₂ , and x ₃ in the mathematical formula shown in Equation 1 (2). ”And“ 0011 ”are substituted, and the calculation target base stations“ 0008 ”,“ 0009 ”, and“ 0011 ”at the current date and time are substituted for y ₁ , y ₂ , and y ₃ .

  Thereby, the correlation calculation unit 10c can calculate a correlation coefficient with the coverage ratio of the calculation target base stations 3, 3, and 3 at the current date and time for each date and time accumulated in the information accumulation table 13d. . The correlation calculation unit 10c sequentially registers the correlation coefficient calculated for each date and time in the information storage table 13d in association with the date and time.

  After the correlation calculation unit 10c completes the information accumulation table 13d, the probability calculation unit 10d generates congestion in the monitored base station number “0010” based on the registered contents of the information accumulation table 13d and the reference information table 13b. Probability is calculated. The probability calculation unit 10d reads the similarity determination threshold value and the congestion determination threshold value corresponding to the monitoring target base station number “0010” from the reference information table 13b. The probability calculation unit (state information counting means) 10d is the information stored in the information storage table 13d for each date and time (information including the coverage ratio, congestion rate, and correlation coefficient of the calculation target base station as one set). Thus, information whose corresponding correlation coefficient is equal to or greater than the similarity determination threshold value (for example, 0.5) read from the reference information table 13b is specified, and the number of the specified information is counted. In the information storage table 13d shown in FIG. 7, the date and time “2008/1/1 10:10”, “2008/1/1 10:20”, and “2008/1/1 10:30” are stored. Identified.

  The probability calculation unit (congestion rate counting means) 10d has a congestion determination threshold (congestion determination threshold value) in which the corresponding congestion rate is read from the reference information table 13b among the three pieces of information specified that the correlation coefficient is equal to or greater than the similarity determination threshold. For example, information that is 60) or more is identified, and the number of identified information is counted. In the information storage table 13d shown in FIG. 7, two pieces of information “2008/1/1 10:20” and “2008/1/1 10:30” are specified. The probability calculation unit (ratio calculation means) 10d calculates the ratio of the number of information whose corresponding congestion rate is equal to or greater than the congestion determination threshold to the number of information whose corresponding correlation coefficient is equal to or greater than the similarity determination threshold. This ratio indicates the probability that congestion will occur in the monitored base station number “0010”.

  The notification unit 10e predicts the congestion state at the current date and time “2008/2/1 10:00” in the monitoring target base station number “0010” based on the ratio calculated by the probability calculation unit 10d, and if necessary. A maintenance person who operates the terminal device 2 is warned. Specifically, the notification unit 10e reads out the warning determination threshold corresponding to the monitored base station number “0010” from the reference information table 13b, and whether or not the ratio calculated by the probability calculation unit 10d is equal to or higher than the warning determination threshold. Judging.

  When the ratio calculated by the probability calculation unit 10d is equal to or higher than the warning determination threshold, the notification unit 10e determines that a warning is necessary, and for example, “the possibility of congestion occurring at the base station“ 0010 ”is high”. Or the like is transmitted from the communication interface 14 to the terminal device 2 to give a warning. The maintenance person who receives such a message performs restriction control such as limiting the number of mobile phones 4, 4... With which the base station “0010” communicates. In this way, the maintenance person can grasp the possibility of congestion occurring before congestion actually occurs, so it is possible to perform regulation control in advance before the occurrence of congestion, and to ensure the occurrence of congestion. It can be avoided.

  When the ratio calculated by the probability calculation unit 10d is not equal to or higher than the warning determination threshold, the notification unit 10e sends, for example, a message such as “the possibility of congestion occurring at the base station“ 0010 ”is low” to the terminal device 2. Send. The maintenance person who has received such a message cancels the restriction control if the restriction control is being performed on the base station “0010” at this time. In this way, the maintenance person can grasp whether or not the regulation control is unnecessary, so that the unnecessary regulation control can be released early.

  Therefore, communication by the mobile phones 4, 4... That are improperly restricted by unnecessary restriction control such as limiting the number of mobile phones 4, 4. The loss of communication opportunities in 4... Can be reduced. Moreover, the communication carrier can avoid the loss of collection of communication charges based on the communication performed by each mobile phone 4, 4. it can.

  As described above, in the mobile terminal management system of the present embodiment, among the past number of people in the calculation target base stations 3, 3..., The current people in the calculation target base stations 3, 3. Identify the situation that is similar to the situation of the number and count the number. Among the past situations similar to the situation of the current number of people in the calculation target base stations 3, 3,..., The congestion rate in the monitored base station 3 at the same date and time as this situation is actually the congestion. Count the number of situations that are above the congestion rate to be judged. Then, the ratio of the number of congestion rate situations equal to or higher than the congestion rate that should be actually judged as congestion to the number of past situations similar to the current number of people in the base stations 3, 3. Then, the calculated ratio is set as the congestion occurrence probability.

  Thus, the current probability of congestion in the monitored base station 3 is predicted based on the number of people in the past in the calculation target base stations 3, 3... Preset for the monitored base station 3. can do.

  Below, the calculation process of the probability of occurrence of congestion in the monitoring target base stations 3, 3... Performed by the management server 1 of the present embodiment will be described based on a flowchart. FIG. 8 is a flowchart showing a procedure for calculating the occurrence probability of congestion. The following processing is executed by the control unit 10 according to various control programs stored in the ROM 11 or the HDD 13 of the management server 1.

  The control unit 10 (base station information receiving unit 10a) of the management server 1 periodically receives the number of people in each base station 3, 3 ... from each base station 3, 3 ... via the communication interface 14. And information on the date and time when the congestion rate, the number of people in the service area, and the congestion rate are acquired. In addition, the control unit 10 (base station information storage unit 10b) associates the received date and time information, the number of people in the service area, and the congestion rate with the base station number of the base station 3 that transmitted the information. Accumulate in the information table 13a.

  The control unit 10 of the management server 1 determines whether or not a predetermined time has elapsed according to the time indicated by its own clock (S1), and determines that the predetermined time has not elapsed (S1: NO), It waits while performing other processes until a predetermined time elapses.

  When it is determined that the predetermined time has passed (S1: YES), the control unit 10 (correlation calculation unit 10c) sets a set of information (monitoring target base station number, calculation target base station number, The calculation target period) is read (S2). The control unit 10 generates the information accumulation table 13d based on the information read from the calculation target information table 13c (S3).

  Specifically, the control unit 10 generates an information accumulation table 13d for the monitoring target base station number read from the calculation target information table 13c. The control unit 10 reads from the base station information table 13a the congestion rate of the monitoring target base station in the period from the current date and time to the date and time that is read back from the calculation target period read from the calculation target information table 13c, and registers it in the information accumulation table 13d. To do. In addition, the control unit 10 determines the number of users in the calculation target base station and the maximum capacity of the calculation target base station within the period from the current date and time to the date and time that is read back from the calculation target information table 13c. Read from the station information table 13a. The control unit 10 calculates the ratio of the number of people in the area (the area ratio) to the read maximum accommodation number, and registers the calculated area ratio in the information accumulation table 13d.

  Next, the control unit 10 correlates between the coverage ratios of the calculation target base stations 3, 3,... At the current date and time and the coverage ratios of the calculation target base stations 3, 3,. The number r is calculated and registered in the information storage table 13d (S4).

  The control unit 10 (probability calculation unit 10d) calculates the probability of occurrence of congestion in the monitored base station 3 based on the registered contents of the information accumulation table 13d (S5). Specifically, the control unit 10 identifies information whose corresponding correlation coefficient is equal to or greater than the similarity determination threshold value read from the reference information table 13b among the information accumulated in the information accumulation table 13d for each date and time. And the number of identified information is counted. Moreover, the control part 10 counts the number of information whose corresponding congestion rate is more than the congestion determination threshold value read from the reference | standard information table 13b among the information which the correlation coefficient specified as being more than a similarity determination threshold value. . And the control part 10 calculates the ratio of the number of information whose congestion rate is more than a congestion determination threshold with respect to the number of information whose correlation coefficient is more than a similarity determination threshold as a congestion generation probability.

  The control unit 10 (communication unit 10e) determines whether or not a warning is necessary based on whether or not the calculated congestion occurrence probability is equal to or higher than the warning determination threshold value read from the reference information table 13b ( S6). When the control unit 10 determines that the warning is necessary (S6: YES), that is, when the calculated congestion occurrence probability is equal to or higher than the warning determination threshold, the monitoring target read from the calculation target information table 13c in step S2 A message indicating that there is a high possibility that congestion will occur in the base station 3 of the base station number is sent to the terminal device 2 for warning (S7).

  When it is determined that no warning is necessary (S6: NO), the control unit 10 skips the process of step S7 and determines whether all information registered in the calculation target information table 13c has been read (S8). ). If it is determined that all information has not been read (S8: NO), the control unit 10 returns the process to step S2, reads a set of information from the calculation target information table 13c (S2), and based on the read information. Then, the processing of steps S3 to S8 is repeated. When it is determined that all information registered in the calculation target information table 13c has been read (S8: YES), the control unit 10 ends the above-described processing.

  As a method for transmitting a message indicating that there is a high possibility of congestion in the base station 3 of the monitored base station number to the terminal device 2, for example, e-mail, instant messenger, predetermined file transfer processing, etc. Can be used.

  In the above-described embodiment, an example has been described in which the calculation target base stations 3, 3,... Are registered in association with the respective monitoring target base stations 3 in the calculation target information table 13c. In addition to this configuration, for example, the management server 1 automatically sets the monitoring target base station 3 and the calculation target base stations 3, 3... Based on the distance, relationship, etc. between the base stations 3, 3. You may make it do. For example, when an arbitrary base station 3 is set as a monitoring target base station, base stations 3, 3... In a region from the base station 3 to a predetermined distance are automatically set as calculation target base stations in the calculation target information table 13c. The management server 1 can also be configured to register.

  Further, for example, base stations 3 installed in each facility such as a stadium, concert venue, amusement park, etc. are set as base stations to be monitored, and base stations 3, 3 installed in the vicinity of the nearest station of these facilities. The management server 1 can also be configured to automatically register as a calculation target base station in the calculation target information table 13c.

  When a plurality of base stations 3, 3... Are set as calculation target base stations, the coverage ratios at the current date and time are defined as a set (one set) of the coverage ratios of the plurality of base stations 3, 3. Since the correlation coefficient (similarity) with the coverage ratio at the past date and time is calculated, the similarity (correlation) is expressed more clearly. Therefore, it is possible to predict the occurrence probability of congestion in the monitoring target base station 3 with higher accuracy than when one base station 3 is set as the calculation target base station.

  In the above-described embodiment, the correlation calculation unit 10c uses the coverage ratio of the calculation target base station at the current date and time for all the coverage ratios of the calculation target base stations at each date and time accumulated in the information accumulation table 13d. The correlation coefficient was calculated. On the other hand, for example, out of the coverage ratio of the calculation target base station stored in the information storage table 13d, the coverage ratio at the same time or the same time zone as the current date and time, It is good also as a structure which calculates the correlation coefficient with a rate.

  In this case, the probability of occurrence of congestion in the monitored base station at the current date and time is calculated based on the correlation coefficient between the historical coverage ratio at the same time or time zone and the historical coverage ratio at the current time. Therefore, since the correlation coefficient calculation process with the past location rate that is unlikely to affect the calculated congestion occurrence probability is not performed, the correlation coefficient can be executed efficiently and information is stored. The amount of information to be stored in the table 13d can be reduced. In particular, in the case of a base station that is highly likely to be congested during commuting hours, the correlation coefficient between the history of the past coverage rate in the commuting time zone and the presence rate at the current time (commuting time zone time) Based on the above, it is possible to efficiently calculate the probability of occurrence of congestion at the current time.

  Similarly, among the coverage ratios of the calculation target base stations stored in the information storage table 13d, the coverage ratio at each time on the same date as the current date and time, The correlation coefficient may be calculated.

  In the above-described embodiment, the information storage table 13d is configured to store various types of information corresponding to each date and time at 10-minute intervals. However, the present invention is not limited to such a configuration, and various types of information may be stored in correspondence with each date and time of several minutes or several tens of minutes, and various information may be stored for each predetermined time zone set in advance. May be registered in the information storage table 13d.

  In the above-described embodiment, based on the correlation coefficient between the coverage ratio at each date and time of the calculation target base station accumulated in the information accumulation table 13d and the coverage ratio at the current date and time, at the current time of the monitored base station. The configuration for calculating the occurrence probability of congestion has been described as an example. On the other hand, it is good also as a structure which calculates the correlation coefficient of the coverage ratio in each date of the calculation object base station accumulate | stored in the information storage table 13d, and the coverage ratio in arbitrary dates (predetermined date). In this case, it is possible to calculate the occurrence probability of congestion at an arbitrary date and time of the monitoring target base station based on the calculated correlation coefficient.

  In the above-described embodiment, the configuration in which the occurrence probability of congestion in the monitoring target base station is calculated based on the past coverage ratio history of the calculation target base station accumulated in the information accumulation table 13d has been described as an example. However, the present invention is not limited to such a configuration. For example, various types of information indicating the communication state of the mobile phones 4, 4... Located in the area of the calculation target base station, such as the past traffic volume and congestion rate of the calculation target base station The probability of occurrence of congestion in the monitored base station can be calculated based on the above.

It is a schematic diagram which shows the structure of the portable terminal management system which concerns on this embodiment. It is a block diagram which shows the structure of a management server. It is a schematic diagram which shows the registration content of a base station information table. It is a schematic diagram which shows the registration content of a reference | standard information table and a calculation object information table. It is a block diagram which shows the structure of a base station. It is a functional block diagram which shows the function structure of a management server. It is a schematic diagram which shows the registration content of an information storage table. It is a flowchart which shows the procedure of the calculation process of the occurrence probability of congestion.

Explanation of symbols

1 management server (management device)
3 Base station (relay device)
4 Mobile phone (communication device)
10 control unit 10c correlation calculation unit (congestion rate acquisition unit, state information acquisition unit, similarity calculation unit)
10d probability calculation unit (state information counting means, congestion rate counting means, ratio calculating means)
13 HDD
13d Information accumulation table (storage means)

Claims (5)

In a management device that manages communication devices that communicate with other communication devices via a plurality of relay devices,
A congestion rate acquisition means for acquiring a congestion rate in a predetermined relay device as needed;
Status information acquisition means for acquiring status information of a communication device in an area communicable with another relay device set in advance for the predetermined relay device;
Storage means for sequentially storing the congestion rate acquired by the congestion rate acquisition means and the status information acquired by the status information acquisition means for each of a plurality of preset time zones;
Similarity information calculating means for calculating the state information acquired by the state information acquiring means in the predetermined time zone and the similarity of each state information stored in the storage means;
Among the state information stored in the storage means, state information counting means for counting the number of state information whose similarity calculated by the similarity calculating means is a predetermined value or more,
Congestion rate counter that counts the number of congestion rates that are equal to or greater than a predetermined value among the congestion rates that are stored in the storage unit in the same time zone as the state information that the similarity calculated by the similarity calculation unit is equal to or greater than a predetermined value Means,
A ratio calculating means for calculating a ratio of the number of congestion rates counted by the congestion rate counting means to the number of state information counted by the state information counting means;
A management apparatus comprising: means for predicting a congestion state in the predetermined time zone in the predetermined relay apparatus based on the ratio calculated by the ratio calculation means.   The management apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the status information is the number of communication apparatuses in an area in which communication with the other relay apparatus is possible in the time period. The status information acquisition means is configured to acquire status information in each of a plurality of other relay devices,
The storage unit is configured to store the state information in each of the plurality of other relay devices acquired by the state information acquisition unit as a set for each time period,
The similarity calculation means is similar to the state information in each of the plurality of other relay devices in the predetermined time zone acquired by the state information acquisition means and the state information of each set stored in the storage means Configured to calculate each degree,
The state information counting unit counts the number of sets of state information in which the similarity calculated by the similarity calculation unit is equal to or greater than a predetermined value among the sets of state information stored in the storage unit. The management apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the management apparatus is configured. In a management method by a management device that manages a communication device that communicates with another communication device via a plurality of relay devices,
For each of a plurality of preset time zones, the congestion rate in a predetermined relay device and the status information of the communication device in an area communicable with another relay device set in advance for the predetermined relay device. Storing in the sequential storage means;
A degree of similarity calculation step for calculating the degree of similarity between the state information in a predetermined time zone and the state information stored in the storage unit;
Among the state information stored in the storage means, a state information counting step for counting the number of state information whose similarity calculated in the similarity calculating step is a predetermined value or more,
A congestion rate counter that counts the number of congestion rates that are greater than or equal to a predetermined value among the congestion rates that are stored in the storage means in the same time zone as the state information that has a similarity calculated at the similarity level that is greater than or equal to a predetermined value. Steps,
A ratio calculating step for calculating a ratio of the number of congestion rates counted in the congestion rate counting step to the number of state information counted in the state information counting step;
Predicting a congestion state in the predetermined time zone in the predetermined relay apparatus based on the ratio calculated in the ratio calculating step. In a computer program for causing a computer to manage a communication device that communicates with another communication device via a plurality of relay devices,
For each of a plurality of preset time zones, the congestion rate in a predetermined relay device and the status information of the communication device in an area communicable with another relay device set in advance for the predetermined relay device. In a computer having storage means for sequentially storing,
A degree of similarity calculation step for calculating the degree of similarity between the state information in a predetermined time zone and the state information stored in the storage unit;
Among the state information stored in the storage means, a state information counting step for counting the number of state information whose similarity calculated in the similarity calculating step is a predetermined value or more,
A congestion rate counter that counts the number of congestion rates that are greater than or equal to a predetermined value among the congestion rates that are stored in the storage means in the same time zone as the state information that has a similarity calculated at the similarity level that is greater than or equal to a predetermined value. Steps,
A ratio calculating step for calculating a ratio of the number of congestion rates counted in the congestion rate counting step to the number of state information counted in the state information counting step;
A computer program for executing a step of predicting a congestion state in the predetermined time zone in the predetermined relay device based on the ratio calculated in the ratio calculating step.

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