JP2009087000A - Market research support method - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a market research support method for increasing a degree of flexibility in the content of questions for a market research and also positively predicting the trend of merchandise consumption, and substituted for a conventional standard cohort table. <P>SOLUTION: The databases 5-10 of a computer 3 with a monitor 3a include: a sense-of-basic value database 5 for storing the basic sense-of-value of each generation which is formed in a stage of growth; a life stage database 8 for storing the general sense-of-value for each life stage; an event database 7 for storing events affecting the human sense-of-value and the change of the sense-of-values; and a change sense-of-value database 6 for storing change sense-of-values where the basic sense-of-value is changed by receiving the sense-of-values of the life stages and the influence of various events. A sense-of-value belt table is displayed on the monitor 3a, with ages (aging) as a vertical axis and periods as a horizontal axis. The sense-of-value belt table displays the sense-of value belts of the respective generations which are obliquely extending downward and indicate a transition in the sense-of-values of the respective generations. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2009,JPO&INPIT

Description

  The present invention relates to market analysis, and more particularly to a market analysis support method using a computer.

    Market analysis analyzes changes in demand from various perspectives. The following three viewpoints can be cited as typical examples. The first is an analysis from the viewpoint that changes in demand originate from changes in the times, and changes in demand due to changes in times are called “effects of the times”. The second is an analysis from the viewpoint that the change in demand comes from the change in age. This change in demand due to the change in age is called the “aging effect”. The third is an analysis from the viewpoint that demand changes are derived from differences in birth age. The market analysis from this third perspective is called cohort analysis, and the change in demand resulting from the difference in birth age is called the “cohort effect”.

  The cohort analysis is classified according to generations, and explores the unique daily behavior, consciousness, consumption trends, etc. of each generation. In the cohort analysis, it is necessary to accumulate data of answers to the same question over a long period of time, for example, to obtain answers by repeating the same question for all generations every five years. In other words, it is necessary to create a database by continuously asking all generations the same questions as before. This is one of the disadvantages of the cohort analysis because it is not possible to ask another question in a single year. In other words, cohort analysis cannot add new questions as the times change.

  A standard coho table is known in which time-series data for each age is arranged so that the interval at the time of survey matches the width of the age category. This standard cohort table is a table in which the vertical axis indicates the age and the horizontal axis indicates the year of birth, and the cohort belt is displayed with the lower right inclined. This standard cohort table is convenient for analysts to conduct various market hypotheses by looking at the standard cohort table while conducting market analysis. There is a problem that it cannot be analyzed in the separated state. A retrospective method is adopted as one method of excluding the age effect and the aging effect from the cohort effect. The retrospective method asks respondents how their behavior and awareness have changed compared to a few years ago, but it is virtually difficult to ask many respondents ( Quantitative answers are not available.)

  The object of the present invention is to increase the degree of freedom of question content for market analysis with the recognition that only limited market analysis is possible with conventional cohort analysis based on fixed questions and corresponding limited information. It is an object of the present invention to provide a market analysis support method that is convenient and capable of positively predicting the trend of product consumption and replacing the conventional standard cohort table.

According to the present invention, the above technical problem is
A market analysis support method for supporting market analysis using a market analysis support system including a computer equipped with a monitor and a database,
The database has an impact on human values, including a basic values database that stores basic values of each generation formed during the growth period, a life stage database that stores general values for each life stage, and human values. An event database that stores the events and changes in values resulting therefrom, and a values database that stores the values of the life stage and the variable values in which the basic values have changed under the influence of various events. Including
The variable value data of each generation stored in the variable value database includes the definition of the variable value, the event that has influenced the formation of the variable value, and the degree of influence by the event. Included,
The monitor displays a belt of values with the age on the vertical axis and the era on the horizontal axis,
The values belt table has values belts of each generation that extend obliquely to the lower right and indicate changes in values of each generation,
This is achieved by providing a market analysis support method characterized in that the data of the variable values of each generation included in the variable values database can be displayed on the monitor in accordance with an instruction of an analyst.

  In other words, the value belt of each generation in the values belt table displayed on the monitor shows the transition of values of that generation, and as a database for displaying this, the basic values of each generation formed during the growth period are displayed. A basic values database that stores information, a life stage database that stores general values for each life stage, an event database that stores events that affect human values and changes in values, and And a fluctuation value database that stores fluctuation values in which the basic values have changed under the influence of the life stage values and various events.

  The inventors of the present application have found that basic values are formed during the growth period (for example, before becoming economically independent), and then, in addition to economic trends and events that affect values, basic values are determined by marriage. It is assumed that the evaluation of the added value of a product when purchasing a product will depend on the values at that time, and the basic values are based on changes in the life stage such as marriage and economic trends. However, some or all of the basic values are hidden or changed, for example after a child becomes independent or after retirement. Considering the case where the original basic values made apparent and the added value of products evaluated based on these basic values, the factors that affect the values are made into a database independently. By systematizing these interrelationships, it is possible to verify the data stored in each database, for example, by conducting a questionnaire survey on matters that customers are interested in. The accuracy of each data can be improved by verifying with

  When performing market analysis by setting various hypotheses while looking at the value belt table displayed on the monitor of the market analysis support system, the analysis of the variable value of each generation included in the variable value database is instructed by the analyst. By displaying this data on the monitor, the analyst can immediately obtain the values of the generation of interest and the information on which it was formed. In this regard, it is preferable to display each area of the basic values and the variable values included in the value belt of each generation of the displayed value belt table on the monitor so as to be visually identifiable. It is preferable to designate an area of values and variable values and immediately display information on values in the designated area on the monitor.

  When estimating future variable values, the basic values of the target generation are read from the basic values database and displayed on the monitor, and further, future events based on the analyst's hypothesis are set. Past events that are close to future events are extracted from the event database and displayed on the monitor. The analyst infers changes in the basic values of the generation targeted by the analyst and gives definitions to the variable values. The variable values and the events that have influenced the formation of the variable values may be stored in the variable values database.

  Thus, by estimating the future values of the target generation using various databases, it is possible to improve the accuracy of searching for the added value of a new product to which the estimated values react.

  The basic concept of market analysis, which is the basis of the present invention, will be described below. There is an era in which products are diversified and there are many products of the same type, but the value added of which product is selected from the same type of product and the product is selected, and for which product group Whether or not to add value and initiate consumption behavior depends on the consumer's values at that time, and it is important in market analysis to seize this value for each generation.

  With regard to consumer values, the present inventors believe that there are basic values that are formed during the growth period (e.g., before becoming independent from parents economically) as described above, and this Basic values differ among generations, and change depending on subsequent events such as large-scale bankruptcies and good / bad economic conditions. Even if the same event occurs, the impact on changes in values is considered to vary among generations. In the following explanation, the period when basic values are formed is called “basic values formation period”, and the subsequent period, that is, the period when values change, is called “basic values change period”.

  If, for example, terrorism that threatens the safety of society occurs in the period of changing basic values, the generations who have not experienced such experiences in the period of forming basic values will be told that the world is safe. Therefore, when the threat of terrorism is realized in the period of changing basic values, it will change to the value that “the world is not safe”. From this, for example, if there are products of the same type of A, B, C, and D, and the product D is a product that considers safety, the product D that is considered not to be selected before terrorism occurs. However, after terrorism, it will be a purchase target. In other words, when an event occurs in which the values change, it can be considered that the evaluation of the added value of the product also changes. On the other hand, for example, generations who experienced war in the period of basic value formation have the basic value that the world is not safe, so terrorism occurred during the period of basic value change. Even so, it seems that the safety values of this generation are not affected so much, and even before or after the terrorist attacks, products D that consider safety are subject to purchase. Can be considered.

  Referring to FIG. 1, the inventors of the present application have found that basic values are formed during the growth period (for example, before becoming economically independent), and then, in addition to economic trends and events that affect values. We believe that basic values will change due to marriage, etc., and that the evaluation of the added value of a product when purchasing a product will depend on the values at that time. The basic values formed during the growth period will not change but disappear due to changes in life stages such as marriage, economic trends, and events, and some or all of the basic values become latent or For example, after a child becomes independent or retires after retirement, the original basic values formed during the growth period become apparent, and the added value of a product is evaluated based on these basic values Is also possible.

  In other words, the inventors of the present invention believe that basic values are formed during the growth period, and that these basic values continue to exist as a basis thereafter. And the basic values that become the basis of this change are affected by the effects of marriage, childcare, child growth, child independence, large bankruptcies, pension system collapse, economic trends, etc. .

  As mentioned above, values created in the basic values formation period are called “basic values”, and values that have changed due to the influence of various factors thereafter are called “variable values”. In the case of, variable values with basic values changed due to certain events and changes in life stages are generated and manifested, and the value added of products is evaluated based on these variable values and products are purchased. This is the basic idea of the present inventors. Note that, for example, even in the same event, the degree of influence and how it is affected vary from generation to generation.

The basic values of each generation are thought to be formed under the influence of the following factors during the basic values formation period, and typical examples are listed below.
(1) Influence of parental values;
(2) Education system (excessive competition for exams, clear education, evaluation that does not give superiority or inferiority);
(3) Economy (business trend, bubble, depression, large bankruptcy) and social events (crime, terrorism, war, etc.);
(4) Technology (spread of TV, spread of mobile phones, spread of cars, sedan to one box car, etc.):

  For example, even if it is the same event, the age at which it occurs varies from generation to generation, and how it is affected varies from generation to generation. For example, the influence of parental values may form values that deny parental values if the growth period is a generation in war. If you are a generation of parents who view parent-child relationships as an extension of your siblings, your child may positively accept the values of the parents and accept them and form the basic values. Therefore, although the basic values of each generation are formed while being influenced by the parents' values, growth events and the educational system, the degree and influence of each generation's basic values varies from generation to generation. It is verified on the assumption.

As described above, the basic values of each generation change in the subsequent basic value change period. The following are typical examples of factors that change human values.
(1) Economy (business trend, bubble, crisis, large bankruptcy) and social events (crime, terrorism, war, pension system collapse, environmental destruction, etc.);
(2) Technology (spread of TV, spread of mobile phones);
(3) Change in social structure (from seniority to merit)
(4) Life stage changes such as single, marriage, childcare, child independence, senior:

  In the following explanation, events that affect values and large-scale bankruptcies are collectively referred to as “events”, but the term “event” does not include a life stage. In other words, the term “event” should be understood to include all factors that affect values, except for the life stage. In addition, the basic values formed during the growth period change due to events during the subsequent changes in the basic values and changes in the life stage, and variable values are formed. Since it is thought that the way of receiving is different for each generation, it is sufficient to verify the values of fluctuations on the assumption that the way of receiving and the degree of influence due to changes in events and life stages are different for each generation. A questionnaire survey should be conducted for this verification.

  The basic values of each generation are databased together with the events at the time of basic value formation, the values of the parent (the changing values during the child's growth period), the degree of influence and how they are affected by the values of the event and the parent. (Referred to as “basic values database”). An example of basic value data of each generation included in the basic value database is shown in FIG. After that, the events that would affect human values, the degree of the impact that the event had on each generation, and how they were affected are tagged with one or more keywords for each event and compiled into a database. ("Event database"). The degree of influence by an event and how it was affected can be verified by conducting a questionnaire survey for each generation.

  In addition, variable values in which the basic values of each generation have changed due to events are compiled into a database (“variable values database”). It is recommended to survey each generation for the verification of this variable value. An example of each variable value data of each generation included in the variable value database is shown in FIG.

  In addition, human values change with changes in life stages such as singleness, marriage, childcare, child independence, and seniority, but the direction of this change does not vary greatly between generations. For example, if you get married and have children, the value of taking care of your family arises. However, the extent to which these values affect basic values varies from generation to generation. Therefore, the life stage database ("life stage database") includes changes in general values that accompany changes in the life stage, such as single, marriage, and childcare, as well as how basic values are affected by changes in the life stage. The degree of influence is verified for each generation and data is created. For this verification, it is better to conduct a questionnaire survey or interview survey using paper or the web.

  Preferably, the relationship between the added value of past hit products or notable products and the values of each generation who purchased them is analyzed, and the database including the relationship is created as a database of product data ( "Product database"). By accumulating this product database and increasing its analysis accuracy, the analysis accuracy of the causal relationship between human values and the added value of products can be increased.

  FIG. 4 is a diagram for explaining a value belt table related to the present invention. In FIG. 4, the vertical axis indicates age (aging), the horizontal axis indicates the era, and the belt extending diagonally to the lower right indicates the transition of values of each generation. In the following description, the belt extending diagonally to the lower right is called a “value belt”, and the table in FIG. 4 is called a “value belt table”. FIG. 4 shows values belts of generation A to generation E. As long as basic values are shared, it is not necessary to divide generations within a certain range, for example, every 10 years. In other words, the width of the values belt may be defined with a certain width, for example, 10 years, but if the basic values are common, one generation will be defined with a five-year birth year and another generation Is defined by the year of birth of 8 years, and another generation may be defined by the year of birth of 12 years. In this case, the belt of values belts may vary depending on the generation. Will be created.

  The basic values created during the formation of basic values change as the life stage changes. In order to differentiate from the basic values described above, the changed values are called “variable values”. The values belt of each generation in the values belt table is the transition of the variable values that changed according to the event. It can be said that it is a visual display of a group of variable values. In other words, the values belt is composed of a group of basic values and the subsequent variable values of each generation, so it can be said that the values belt is a history of changes in basic values, and will be explained later. As can be seen, it can include inferred future variable values. In FIG. 4, bachelor, family, and senior are classified according to age, but this is only a general example.

  FIG. 5 illustrates a market analysis support system 1 including generation and display of a value belt table. Reference numeral 2 denotes a server, to which one or a plurality of personal computers 3 are connected, and a printer 4 is connected. In addition, a plurality of databases are constructed in the server 2, and the database includes a database about basic values (basic values DB) 5 and a database about variable values (variable values DB) 6. The variable values database 6 includes a history of variable values of each generation and various data and information related thereto, current variable values and various data and information related thereto, future variable values and Various data and information on which the prediction is made are stored.

  Further, the database includes a database (event DB) 7 relating to past events. In this event database 7, events that affect human values and related data and information are tagged and stored, and for each generation, the results of analyzing the degree of influence and how they are affected are stored. For example, it is databased in the form of weighting.

  Moreover, the database (life stage DB) 8 regarding a life stage is included as a database. In the life stage database 8, for example, regarding singles, the values that would normally be possessed by a single person such as “I want to be liked”, “I want to be liked by the opposite sex”, “I want a friend”, “Family , “The child is important (worried about the future of the child)”, “the family wants to be full of family” and the values that would normally be possessed by a family with children are remembered, For each generation A to E, the result of analyzing the degree of influence and how it is affected is compiled into a database in the form of weighting, for example. If you are a “senior,” each generation, along with the values that people of retirement age generally have, such as “health is important”, “I want life worth”, “I want a friend” As for A to E, the results of analyzing the degree of influence and how to receive the influence are stored in a database in the form of weighting, for example.

  For example, generation C to generation E shown in FIG. 4 are not currently senior, but when they become “senior” in the future prediction, taking into account the degree of influence on value and how it is affected, the life stage Fluctuating values due to changes in For this purpose, it is preferable to create a database of the results of analyzing the degree of influence and how they are affected by changes in values due to changes in the life stage of each generation. In addition, as for the life stage classification, single (young), family, and senior are shown in FIG. 4 as an example, but these are subdivided and classified by single, marriage, childcare, child advancement period, etc. However, for each life stage, for example, weighting the results of analyzing the degree of influence and how it is affected by changes in values and life stages in the subdivision into men, women, men and women, annual income, number of children, etc. It is also possible to create a database in the form of various information regarding each life stage from a hierarchical menu. Thereby, the analyst can obtain information on each life stage regarding each generation A to E through the monitor 3a (FIG. 5) from various angles and at a depth of interest.

  As a further database, a database (product DB) 9 relating to products hit in the past and products to be noticed is included. In the product database 9, data and information analyzing customer values of past notable products, past hit products and customer values are analyzed, and what added value of hit products is what value. Data and information analyzing whether it was accepted by the view are stored. In addition, the data and information of each product included in the product database 9 includes the sales time of the product, the economic index at that time (for example, effective job offer ratio, GDP), and the characteristics of the time (for example, strong consumer desire, women The degree of social advancement, indicators supporting these, and the like may be included, and various information regarding the product may be displayed on the monitor 3a (FIG. 5) of the personal computer 3 from the hierarchical menu. As other databases, a database group 10 may be included which is individually databased regarding factors (including gender and sex) that affect human values and information related to consumption. That is, as one of the database group 10, for example, in the life stage family layer, environmental factors that lead to consumption such as “investment in children depends on annual income” may be prepared as a consumption-related factor database. . Further, as one of the database group 10, a relationship between values and consumption (for example, investment in children is useful for children in the future) may be prepared as a consumption-related supporting database.

  FIG. 6 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of how to use the value belt table as an example of use of the market analysis support system 1 (FIG. 5). For example, if there was a large-scale bankruptcy around 1997, and this large-scale bankruptcy was a symbolic event of the economy at that time, the value of each generation was affected by this large-scale bankruptcy event and the values changed. For example, when looking at changes in the values of young people, Young's values at the time of 1993 were status-oriented, tended to direct young executive careers, spending stretched, Suppose that she is defined as taking care of her boyfriend. On the other hand, Young's values in 2000 after a large bankruptcy are life-size oriented, directing themselves, consuming a sense of balance that is not overwhelming, If defined as important, this change in Young's values can be seen as a result of generations and large bankruptcies.

  In addition, the generation who was young at the time of 1993 changed the life stage into a family with the passage of time, and around 2000, it was discerning and polite, creating a happy family and eliminating anxiety and inconvenience If consumption is defined and it is defined that children, wife, self, and parents are taken care of, this change in values can be seen as a change in life stage and the influence of large-scale bankruptcy. Accordingly, the values belt table is displayed on the monitor 3a of the personal computer 3, and when the pointer is placed in a desired era of a desired generation, the values at that time are displayed in a pop-up format, for example. It is preferable to move the pointer and place the desired age of the next desired generation to designate the age, so that the values of the generation at that time are displayed in text. Of course, when there are one or a plurality of desired eras of a specified desired generation, these values may be displayed in a line, for example, in the right space on the monitor.

  In addition to this, it is also possible to enumerate the events that triggered the creation of values to be displayed, such as keywords such as large-scale bankruptcy. The analysis data may be displayed by a simple operation as to what kind of event the values are formed. Also, analysis data relating to the hit product at that time may be displayed by a simple operation. These can be realized by associating each data of the event database 7 and the product database 9 with the fluctuation values of the value belt in advance and systematizing them.

  FIGS. 7 to 9 are diagrams for explaining examples of utilization of the value belt table relating to product planning as examples of utilization of the market analysis support system 1 (FIG. 5). Referring to FIG. 7 and FIG. 8, as a past example, in relation to a hit product (not particularly limited to a hit product) and the generation that purchased it, the values and hits of that generation at that time Analyzing the relationship with the added value of products, creating a database, and accumulating data on various products (product database 9), the hypothesis for bringing new products to market at the product planning stage Based on the event, predict the value A of the future customer (target customer), and analyze the added value of the possibility that the expected value A leads to consumption behavior. New added value to be estimated can be estimated. For example, a value-related keyword is included in the data of each product included in the product database 9, and product data related to the keyword of the predicted value A is extracted from the product database 9 and displayed on the monitor 3a. Is good.

  During the product planning stage or during product development, future customer values A are predicted based on various future hypotheses, and the data of various databases 5 to 10 are stored on the monitor 3a of the personal computer 3. It is convenient to use the value belt table to predict the new added value a that should be included in the new product to be put on the market while displaying it. Also, the data and information of various databases 5 to 10 are displayed on the monitor 3a. However, it is possible to set a future hypothesis and analyze the relationship between the value A of the future customer and the new added value a that may lead to consumption behavior.

  More specifically, referring to FIG. 9, data on the relationship between the added value of each product and the values of the generation who purchased the product is accumulated in the product database 9 for many past products. . Then, an event that is likely to affect values at a future point in time when a new product is put on the market is virtually set, and past event data and information related to the event are stored in the event database 7 using keywords. The past one or more extracted data is displayed on the monitor 3a displaying the value belt table, and what influence each generation has on the event included in the past event data The information on whether or not to receive is displayed on the monitor 3a displaying the value belt table. Further, if there is a change in the life stage in each generation when a new product is put on the market, necessary information from the life stage database 8 is displayed on the monitor 3a displaying the value belt table.

  In the prediction of future values and added value associated therewith, if necessary, it is preferable to install a program for executing text mining on the server 1 or the personal computer 3 by using a text mining technique. By using text mining, for example, useful keywords can be derived from a large group of sentences collected in a questionnaire using mathematical and statistical techniques, and various databases 7 to 10 can be derived from these keywords. Necessary information may be displayed on the monitor 3a. In particular, when searching for a keyword of a future event when setting a hypothesis, it is convenient to use text mining.

  The analyst infers and estimates the values at the time of introducing new products to the market for each generation or target generation from these information and data displayed on the monitor 3a of the personal computer 3. From the product database 9, the product data that is likely to be referred to is extracted from the product database 9 and displayed on the monitor 3 a, based on the estimated value or a value close to this value. By referring to these, the added value that can encourage consumption behavior to the generation of the estimated values is estimated. If all generations are to be analyzed, the values that can be assumed in the future are estimated for each generation, and the added value associated with the estimated values may be analyzed. Further, if there are a plurality of future events, the values that can be assumed in the future are estimated for each event and for each generation, and the added value associated with the estimated values may be analyzed.

  In the future market analysis described above and in the past market analysis, it is important to know the past history of each generation. FIG. 10 is a diagram for explaining an example in which various information is displayed using the value belt table. In FIG. 10, only the value belts of a specific generation are extracted and drawn. However, this is for explanation, and the value belts of each generation are similarly displayed in the value belt table. I want you to understand. Each values belt should be able to identify the basic values and then the changed values (1) to (5) from the present to the present by color or pattern classification.

  When the analyst designates, for example, a basic value with a pointer in a desired value belt displayed on the monitor 3a, a display for selecting male, female, or gender common is displayed on the right side of the popup or value belt table, for example. When one of them is specified, the display is switched to the selection of the parent's values, values, affected events, and the like. For example, when a parental value is selected, the parental value of the generation is displayed in text, and when a value is selected, the basic value is displayed in text. In addition, when an affected event is selected, a list of events (including the educational system) that the generation was affected in forming the basic values is displayed, and a desired event is selected from the listed event group. When is selected, the details of the event are displayed as characters, graphs, images, or the like.

  In addition, when the analyst specifies, for example, variable values (4), on the right side of the values belt table, for example, on the right side, it switches to a display that selects a life stage such as single, family, and if you specify one of them, A display for selecting male, female, and male / female appears on the monitor 3a. If one of them, for example, a man is designated, the display is switched to a screen for selecting an affected event, the value of change, a past case, and the like. For example, if an affected event is specified, a list of events that affected the change in the values (4) of the generation of men for that generation of men will be displayed. When a desired event is selected from the above, details of the event are displayed by characters, graphs, images, and the like. In addition, when the variable values are designated, details of the variable values (4) of men of the generation are displayed. In addition, if a past case is specified, a list of products for which males of the generation have caused consumption behavior is displayed, and if a desired product is specified, the added value of the product or the values that the males of the generation have reached consumption behavior are displayed. And the relationship between the values and the added value of the product.

  Also, if the future variable values of the generation have been estimated, by storing them in the variable values database 6, when the estimated variable values are specified, the various values that have become the basis for the estimation It is preferable that information can be displayed on the monitor 3a (FIG. 5) of the personal computer 3.

  The basic values data of each generation may be diverted from basic values that have already been widely recognized through the media, etc., in order to increase the accuracy of this generally known basic values of each generation. It is good to verify. The specific method will be described with reference to FIG. 11. First, an event that seems to be affected in the generation of basic values of the generation is read from the event database 7 and displayed on the monitor 3a (S100, S101). ). Further, the values of the parent at that time are read from the variable values database 6 and displayed on the monitor 3a (S102, S103). Further, the degree of each extracted event and the influence of the parent and how to receive the influence are read from the event database 7 and the variable values database 6 and displayed on the monitor 3a (S104, S105). The analyst looks at these indications and displays the information on the basic values of the generation, which is generally said in some cases, on the monitor 3a or by referring to the literature describing the information, etc. A definition is given to the values (S105) and stored in the basic values database 5. By performing this operation for each generation, a definition can be given to the basic values of a series of generations, and the definition of the basic values that have already been defined can be verified.

  For the data of variable values of each generation, the definition of values that are already widely recognized through the media and the like may be used, but verification should be performed in order to increase the accuracy of the definition. The specific technique will be described with reference to FIG. 12. First, the basic values of the generation are read from the basic values database 5 and displayed on the monitor 3a (S200, S201). Also, an event that seems to have influenced the values is read from the event database 7 and displayed on the monitor 3a (S202, S203). Furthermore, general values such as life stage, single (young), family, and general values based on gender are read from the life stage database 8 and database 10 and displayed on the monitor 3a (S204, S205). Furthermore, the degree of influence of each extracted event and life stage and how to receive the influence are read from the event database 7 and the life stage database 8 and displayed on the monitor 3a (S206, S207). The analyst looks at these displays and, in some cases, displays information on the values of the generation at that time, which is generally said, on the monitor 3a, or refers to the literature describing the generation, and the like. The variable values are defined (S208) and stored in the variable values database 6. This is done at the point when the values of each generation seem to have changed, and the values of each generation that have already been defined can be verified.

  The market analysis support system 1 in FIG. 5 also predicts future values of each generation, predicts basic values of future generations or future generations, and changes in future values, and assumes assumed values. Based on the above, it can be used for market analysis for product planning (analysis of the relationship between assumed values and new added value of the product and search for what added value should be added to the product). FIG. 13 is a diagram for explaining the prediction of the basic values of the generation of the minor child and the prediction of the fluctuation values of the generation of the child. As described above, the present inventors believe that the basic values of children are influenced by the values of parents. In order to predict what basic values the generation to be born will have, it is first necessary to assume the parent's values during the formation of the basic values as the virtual child to be born.

  FIG. 14 is a flowchart for explaining an example of a method for estimating the future fluctuation values of the parent generation by the market analysis support system 1. First, the basic values of the parent generation are read from the basic values database 5 and displayed on the monitor 3a. In the values belt table displayed on the monitor 3a, by placing the pointer in the basic values area of the values belt of the parent generation and clicking, the basic values are read from the basic values database 5 and monitored. 3a can be displayed (S300).

  Next, we will make a hypothesis about what kind of time the child is in when the basic values are formed. Text mining software may be used to search for keywords derived from this hypothesis. If a keyword in the child's basic values formation period can be found, the keyword is input and related past events are extracted from the event database 7 (S301, S302). A list of past events read from the event database 7 and an overview of each event are displayed on the monitor 3a (S303). The analyst can display the details on the monitor 3a by selecting a past event that is likely to match the future event that he envisions from the list displayed on the monitor 3a (S304). As a result, it is possible to create an image of events that will occur during the formation of the basic values of the child, how the parent's generation is affected, and the degree of influence. In addition, the child assumes whether or not the parent generation has a life stage change during the basic values formation period, and when it can be assumed that there is a change in the life stage, the process proceeds to step S306 by saying “YES”. Information such as general values in the corresponding life stage after the change and the influence level of the parent generation due to this is extracted from the stage database 8 and displayed on the monitor 3a. The analyst then refers to various information displayed on the monitor 3a to create an image of the future generation values of the parent's generation based on the above hypothesis, and personalizes several keywords that can define this image. Input to the computer 3 (S307). This definition is recorded in the variable values database 6 (S308). The flowchart of FIG. 14 can be applied to analyze the added value required by the generation based on the future value of each generation.

  Next, guess the basic values of future children. FIG. 15 is a flowchart for explaining an example of a method for assuming a future child's basic values. Steps S400 to S403 in FIG. 15 are based on the hypothesis of what kind of events occurred in the era of the basic values formation period of children and what the educational system and social structure are like. This is a process of displaying information such as information stored in the event database 7 and information such as basic values of each generation stored in the basic values database 5 on the monitor 3a for reference to the analyst. The outline is substantially the same as steps S301 to S304 in FIG.

  Next, the parent's variable values assumed in step S307 in FIG. 14 are read from the variable values database 7 and displayed on the monitor 3a (S404). Also, information that is likely to be related such as the basic values database 5 is displayed on the monitor 3a (S405), and how the child is influenced by the parent values or the degree of influence is assumed, and the generation of the child Basic Values Based on the above hypothesis, an image of the future generation values of the parent's generation is created, and several keywords that can define this image are input to the personal computer 3 (S406). This definition is stored in the basic values database 5 (S407).

  As described above, based on various hypotheses, not only the assumption of the basic values of future generations along each hypothesis is facilitated, but also the data and information included in the databases 5 to 10 are repeatedly verified. By increasing the accuracy, the basic values of future generations can be accurately predicted. It is also possible to predict changes in values due to changes in the child's future life stay.

  An example of a method for predicting the value of change due to a change in the future life stage of the child will be described based on the flowchart of FIG. First, in step S500, the basic values of the child generation are read from the basic values database 5 and displayed on the monitor 3a. Next, a hypothesis about what kind of event has occurred at the time of the future request is made, and past event information similar to this event is extracted from the event database 7 to determine how the child generation affects. An assumption is made as to whether or not to receive (S501 to S504). The outline of this work is substantially the same as steps S301 to S304 in FIG. 14 and steps S400 to S403 in FIG.

  Next, in step S505, the information of the corresponding life stage is taken from the life stage database 8 and displayed on the monitor 3a, and the analyst provides information on past events displayed on the monitor 3a, values based on the life stage, and the like. Referring to FIG. 4, a variable value is assumed, a keyword defining the value is input (S406), and the definition of the variable value is stored in the variable value database 6 together with the assumed event (S407). ).

  By accumulating the data of various databases 5 to 10 and increasing the accuracy of the data in this way, it is possible to improve the accuracy of inferring basic values of future generations and future variable values. The variable values estimated under the hypothesis can be estimated by referring to past cases stored in the product database 9 so as to estimate the added value of the new product to which the estimated variable values react.

  Of course, data such as the value database 6, the event database 7, and the product database 9 can be verified by conducting various questionnaire surveys. Then, while displaying the systematic data group included in the various databases 5-10 in which the refined data is accumulated while looking at the values belt table displayed on the monitor 3a, the target customer's target is displayed. It is possible to infer values and analyze the added value related to them, and use it for product development.

It is a figure for explaining transition of human values. It is a figure for demonstrating the matter contained in the data of the basic values formed in the growth period of each generation. It is a figure for demonstrating the matter contained in the data of the variable values in which the basic values of each generation changed after that. It is a figure for demonstrating a value belt table | surface. It is a figure which shows the outline | summary of the whole structure of a market analysis support system. It is a figure for demonstrating one utilization example of the value belt table displayed on the monitor of a market analysis support system. It is a figure for demonstrating the market analysis in the product plan which sets various future hypotheses and presumes the future customer's values and the new added value which a new product should have. It is a figure for demonstrating utilization of a database in the technique of the market analysis shown in FIG. As a past example, it is a diagram for analyzing the relationship between the added value of products and customer values and creating a database, and explaining the use of this database at the product planning stage. It is a figure for demonstrating the example which displays the required information on a monitor by hierarchizing by designating the desired age of the value belt of each generation of the value belt table of a display on a monitor. It is a flowchart for demonstrating an example of the method of estimating the basic values which a generation of a child will form in the future. It is a flowchart for demonstrating an example of the method of estimating the variable values which the values of each generation will change and form in the future. In order to guess the child's basic values when targeting, while displaying various information on the monitor of the market analysis support system, first guess the parent's future values, and then guess the child's basic values. FIG. 5 is a diagram for explaining a series of operations for estimating the child's variable values. It is a flowchart for demonstrating an example of the method of estimating the future values of a parent among a series of work of FIG. It is a flowchart for demonstrating an example of the method of estimating the basic values which a child will form in the future among a series of work of FIG. It is a flowchart for demonstrating an example of the method of estimating the fluctuation value of a child among a series of work of FIG.

Explanation of symbols

1 Market Analysis Support System 2 Server 3 Personal Computer 3a Monitor 5 Basic Values Database 6 Variable Values Database 7 Event Database 8 Life Stage Database 9 Product Database 10 Various Databases

Claims (4)

A market analysis support method for supporting market analysis using a market analysis support system including a computer equipped with a monitor and a database,
The database has an impact on human values, including a basic values database that stores basic values of each generation formed during the growth period, a life stage database that stores general values for each life stage, and human values. An event database that stores the events and changes in values resulting therefrom, and a values database that stores the values of the life stage and the variable values in which the basic values have changed under the influence of various events. Including
The variable value data of each generation stored in the variable value database includes the definition of the variable value, the event that has influenced the formation of the variable value, and the degree of influence by the event. Included,
The monitor displays a belt of values with the age on the vertical axis and the era on the horizontal axis,
The values belt table has values belts of each generation that extend obliquely to the lower right and indicate changes in values of each generation,
A market analysis support method characterized in that, according to an instruction from an analyst, the data of the variable values of each generation included in the variable value database can be displayed on the monitor.   The market analysis support method according to claim 1, wherein each area of basic values and variable values included in the value belt of each generation displayed on the monitor is displayed so as to be visually identifiable.   The market analysis support method according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the basic value data of each generation included in the basic values database can be displayed on the monitor in accordance with an instruction of an analyst. When generating data for future variable values, the basic values of the generation that estimates the variable values are read from the basic value database and displayed on the monitor, and future events based on the analyst's hypothesis are displayed. Set and extract past events close to the future event from the event database and display them on the monitor;
The analyst infers changes in the basic values of the generation and gives definitions to the variable values, and the events assumed to affect the formation of the inferred variable values and the variable values The market analysis support method according to any one of claims 1 to 3, which is stored in a view database.

Images