JP2009031461A - Device and method for predicting evacuation status in disaster - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide information for predicting, over a wide range, evacuation of individual resident from each residence and for effectively advancing road maintenance preparing for setting and installation of a shelter and evacuation in disaster. <P>SOLUTION: A device for predicting the state of evacuation of a large number of people evacuating to a plurality of shelters through a plurality of roads in disaster comprises: a data input unit 11 for inputting information of position of roads and shelters, evacuation routes, traveling speed in evacuation, population distribution in normal time, and evacuation start time; an internal storage device 20 for storing the information input into the data input unit 11; a prediction unit 12 for predicting the evacuation state on the basis of the information input into the data input unit 11; an output-display unit 13 for displaying the evacuation state predicted by the prediction unit 12. The road information input into the data input unit 11 includes the information of a plurality of nodes and the information of a plurality of links linking the nodes with each other. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2009,JPO&INPIT

Description

  The present invention relates to an apparatus and method for predicting a situation in which a large number of people evacuate to a plurality of shelters through a plurality of roads in a disaster.

  When a major disaster occurs, a large number of people evacuate from their homes to the shelter. At that time, obstacles on the road caused by a disaster or narrow parts of the road become bottlenecks, slowing the walking speed, and the time to complete evacuation may be significantly longer than normal . In addition, the time required for evacuation may vary greatly depending on the positional relationship between the disaster occurrence site and the evacuation site and the timely provision of information about the evacuation route from the local government.

  In setting and setting up shelters and road maintenance in preparation for disaster evacuation, it is desirable to proceed while considering the bottleneck factors described above. In the study that considers the bottleneck factor, it is possible to use the evacuation drill results, but the study pattern is limited in the training, and it is difficult to compare and examine the effects of various maintenance items.

In recent years, simulation technology using a computer has been developed, and the effectiveness of reproducing various events has been shown. Patent proposals have also been made for evacuation simulation technology. However, these are simulation techniques (Patent Document 1) about the time required for group evacuation from temporary shelters to wide-area shelters, and techniques for simulating the evacuation situation in buildings (Patent Document 2). Yes, it does not predict the evacuation of individual residents from each residence over a wide area.
Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 5-19677 JP 2004-85948 A

  As described above, it is effective to set up and install shelters, or to improve roads in preparation for evacuation in the event of a disaster, taking into account the bottleneck factor using computer simulation. However, a simulation device that predicts evacuation of individual residents from each residence over a wide area has not been proposed so far.

  The present invention predicts the evacuation of individual residents from each residence over a wide area, and makes it possible to provide information for effectively proceeding with the setting and installation of evacuation shelters and road maintenance in preparation for disaster evacuation. Objective.

  In order to achieve the above object, a disaster evacuation situation prediction apparatus according to the present invention is an apparatus that predicts a situation in which a large number of people in a predetermined area evacuate to a plurality of shelters through a plurality of roads in a disaster. An input unit for inputting information on roads, shelter positions, evacuation routes, movement speed during evacuation, normal population distribution, and evacuation start time, and a storage unit for storing information input in the input unit And a prediction unit that predicts an evacuation situation based on information input by the input unit, and a display unit that displays the evacuation situation predicted by the prediction unit.

  The disaster evacuation situation prediction method according to the present invention is a method for predicting a situation in which a large number of people in a predetermined area evacuate to a plurality of shelters through a plurality of roads at the time of a disaster. An input step for inputting information on the position, evacuation route, movement speed at the time of evacuation, population distribution at normal times, and evacuation start time, and a prediction step for predicting the evacuation situation based on the information input in the input step; And a display step for displaying the evacuation situation predicted in the prediction step.

  According to the present invention, it is possible to predict the evacuation of individual residents from each residence over a wide area, and based on this, it is possible to effectively proceed with the setting and installation of evacuation shelters and road maintenance in preparation for evacuation in the event of a disaster. It becomes possible.

  Hereinafter, embodiments of an evacuation situation prediction apparatus according to the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.

[First Embodiment]
As shown in FIG. 1, the evacuation situation prediction apparatus according to the first embodiment of the present invention includes a central processing unit (CPU) 10, an input device 30, an internal storage device 20, and an output device 40. The CPU 10 includes a data input unit 11, a prediction unit 12, and an output / display unit 13.

  The data input unit 11 includes a road data setting module 22, which will be described later, a shelter setting module 23 for setting a shelter position and the number of people that can be accommodated, a movement speed setting module 24 for evacuation, an evacuation route setting module 25, and an evacuation start It includes a time setting module 26 and a population distribution setting module 27 that sets a population distribution during normal or evacuation. The prediction unit 12 includes an evacuation situation prediction module 32 and predicts the evacuation situation of each inhabitant. The output / display unit 13 includes a prediction result output module 42 and a prediction result display module 43, and outputs the prediction result to a file or a display screen. The internal storage device 20 stores data such as road data and shelter data set by the data input unit 11 and digitized.

  As shown in FIG. 2, the road data setting module 22 includes a road position input function 52 for inputting a road network in the form of a node and a link, a road width setting function 53 for inputting a link width constituting the road, and a maximum traffic amount setting. A function 54 and a road breakage point setting function 55 for setting the position of an obstacle or road breakage caused by a disaster are provided.

  To start the evacuation simulation, it is necessary to create road data. Accurate road data is required for accurate simulation. As shown in FIG. 3, the road position input function according to this embodiment can display map information as image data as a background screen of a road data creation screen. While viewing the background screen, the user operates a pointer such as a mouse to divide the road into appropriate line segments (links), and clicks division points (nodes) along the road. The road data setting module generates road network data by taking into account the coordinates of the dividing points (nodes) and the distance ratio between the background screen and the display screen input in advance and converting them into actual distances.

  Next, the shelter location setting function of the shelter setting module 23 according to the first embodiment will be described. As with the road data creation screen, the shelter setting is performed via a setting screen in which a map of the same scale as the road data creation screen is displayed on the background screen. As shown in FIG. 4, the user moves the cursor to a shelter location on the map and clicks to determine the shelter location. The shelter setting module 23 converts the actual distance into consideration in consideration of the distance ratio between the background screen and the display screen input in advance, and stores the shelter position.

  Next, the refuge setting function will be described. In this embodiment, the evacuation route is created based on a Voronoi diagram with the evacuation center as a concentration point. That is, as shown in FIG. 5, residents in a region (Voronoi polygon) partitioned by a vertical bisector connecting two adjacent shelters evacuate to a shelter in the center of the region. Think of things. Residents who live at a certain point in the area start evacuation toward the evacuation center starting from the road closest to the place of residence.

  As described above, according to the evacuation situation prediction apparatus of this embodiment, roads for predicting evacuation of individual residents from each residence over a wide area, and setting up and setting evacuation shelters and evacuating in the event of a disaster A simulation device for effectively proceeding with maintenance can be realized. Furthermore, road data setting and shelter setting necessary for evacuation simulation can be performed easily and efficiently. In addition, it is possible to easily search for an evacuation route, and the efficiency of the simulation study itself can be improved.

[Second Embodiment]
Next, a second embodiment of the present invention will be described. Here, the same or similar parts as those in the first embodiment are denoted by the same reference numerals, and redundant description is omitted.

  The evacuation situation prediction apparatus according to the second embodiment includes an external database 50 in addition to the CPU 10, the input device 30, the internal storage device 20, and the output device 40, as shown in FIG. The CPU 10 and the external database 50 are connected by a communication line, for example. Further, a transportable storage medium may be used as appropriate. The CPU 10 includes a data input unit 11, a prediction unit 12, and an output / display unit 13.

  The data input unit 11 is substantially the same as in the first embodiment, but the contents of the road data setting module 22a included in the data input unit 11 are different. That is, as shown in FIG. 7, the road data setting module 22a includes a road position data reading function 52a instead of the road position input function 52, as compared with the road data setting module 22 of FIG. Other configurations are substantially the same as those of the first embodiment.

  In this embodiment, the digitized road data is stored in the external database 50 and is read by the road position data reading function 52a of the road data setting module 22a.

  Here, the road data published on the MLIT website will be described as an example of numerical road data. Data is provided as one file for each prefecture. 8 to 11 show the format of road data published on the MLIT homepage. The road data is expressed by dividing the road network into line segments called links, with the start and end points as nodes and the position coordinates as numerical data. Therefore, the start node and end node numbers are read from the link data area of this file, the node coordinates are obtained from the corresponding node data, and the link intermediate point recorded in the link intermediate point data area is also acquired. By obtaining the coordinates and connecting them in order, numerical data of the road network can be obtained.

  FIG. 12 depicts the node and link data acquired in this way on a screen with a map as a background. At this time, the coordinates of the numerical road data are converted so as to match the scale of the map as the background. In the first embodiment, this screen is the same as the screen in which the input of road position data is completed by operating a pointer such as a mouse. You can continue to set up a shelter.

  The shelter position setting according to the second embodiment is performed by the same method as in the first embodiment. As with the road data creation screen, the shelter setting has a setting screen in which a map of the same scale as the road data creation screen is displayed on the background screen. The user moves the cursor to the shelter location on the map and clicks to determine the shelter location. The shelter location setting module converts the actual distance into consideration by taking into consideration the distance ratio between the background screen and the display screen input in advance, and stores the shelter location.

  The procedure after evacuation center determination is the same as that in the first embodiment.

The block diagram which shows the whole concept of 1st Embodiment of the disaster evacuation condition prediction apparatus which concerns on this invention. The block diagram which shows the structure of the road data setting module of FIG. Explanatory drawing which shows the display screen at the time of the input of the node and link of road data in 1st Embodiment of the evacuation condition prediction apparatus at the time of a disaster which concerns on this invention. Explanatory drawing which shows the display screen at the time of the setting input of the refuge data in 1st Embodiment of the disaster evacuation condition prediction apparatus which concerns on this invention. Explanatory drawing which shows the method of determining a resident's refuge at the time of the evacuation route search in 1st Embodiment of the disaster evacuation condition prediction apparatus which concerns on this invention. The block diagram which shows the whole concept of 2nd Embodiment of the evacuation condition prediction apparatus at the time of a disaster which concerns on this invention. The block diagram which shows the structure of the road data setting module of FIG. The figure which shows an example of the header data in the external numerical road data used in 2nd Embodiment of the disaster evacuation condition prediction apparatus which concerns on this invention. The figure which shows an example of the node data in the external numerical road data of FIG. The figure which shows an example of the link data (line segment) in the external numerical road data of FIG. The figure which shows an example of the link ledger data in the external numerical road data of FIG. The figure which shows the image which displayed the road position data read from the external database on the map display screen used as the background in 2nd Embodiment of the disaster evacuation condition prediction apparatus which concerns on this invention.

Explanation of symbols

11: Data input unit 12: Evacuation situation prediction unit 13: Output / display unit 20: Internal storage devices 22, 22a: Road data setting module 23: Shelter setting module 24: Evacuation speed setting module 25: Evacuation route setting module 26: Evacuation start time setting module 27: Population distribution setting module 30: Input device 32: Evacuation status prediction module 40: Output device 42: Prediction result output module 43: Prediction result display module 50: External database 52: Road position input function 52a : Road position data reading function 53: Road width setting function 54: Maximum traffic setting function 55: Road breakage point setting function

Claims (7)

An apparatus for predicting a situation in which a large number of people in a predetermined area evacuate to a plurality of shelters through a plurality of roads at the time of a disaster,
An input unit for inputting information on roads, shelter positions, evacuation routes, movement speed during evacuation, normal population distribution, and evacuation start time,
A storage unit for storing information input by the input unit;
A prediction unit that predicts an evacuation situation based on information input by the input unit;
A display unit for displaying the evacuation situation predicted by the prediction unit;
A disaster evacuation situation prediction apparatus characterized by comprising:   The disaster evacuation situation according to claim 1, wherein the road information input by the input unit includes information on a plurality of nodes and information on a plurality of links connecting the nodes to each other. Prediction device.   When the road information is input by the input unit, the road position is set by setting the position indicated by the pointer on the screen displaying the map as means for displaying a map on the screen of the display device. The disaster evacuation situation prediction apparatus according to claim 2, further comprising: means for inputting   When inputting the location information of the shelter with the input unit, a means for displaying a map on the screen of the display device and a location indicated by the pointer on the screen displaying the map are set as the location of the shelter The disaster evacuation situation prediction apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 3, further comprising: means for inputting information on a position of the refuge by   The prediction unit divides the predetermined area into a plurality of divided areas by a vertical bisector connecting two evacuation centers adjacent to each other in the predetermined area, and residents living in each of the divided areas The disaster evacuation according to any one of claims 1 to 4, characterized in that the evacuation situation is predicted on the condition that the evacuation route is evacuated through the shortest route to the evacuation centers in each divided area. Situation prediction device.   The disaster evacuation situation prediction apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 5, wherein the input unit includes means for reading the road information from an external database. A method for predicting a situation in which a large number of people in a predetermined area evacuate to a plurality of shelters through a plurality of roads at the time of a disaster,
An input step for inputting information on road, shelter location, evacuation route, moving speed during evacuation, normal population distribution and evacuation start time,
A prediction step of predicting an evacuation situation based on the information input in the input step;
A display step for displaying the evacuation situation predicted in the prediction step;
A disaster evacuation situation prediction method characterized by comprising:

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