JP2008289262A - System, method, and program for supporting power distribution equipment planning - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To support power distribution equipment planning in consideration of uncertainty involved in future prospect. <P>SOLUTION: A power distribution equipment planning supporting system is used to prepare a power distribution equipment plan for a predetermined time period. At this time, the system takes into account an uncertainty risk in which an event different from a scenario for the initial plan occurs and the plan must be changed. Such a scenario as to minimize the sum of distribution cost for implementing the initial plan, additional cost required when an even different from a scenario for the initial plan occurs, and cost related to the uncertainty risk of the occurrence of additional cost is determined based on the following: information on existing power distribution equipment; multiple scenarios likely to occur during the predetermined time period; the probability of realization of each scenario; and a utility function indicating the planning-oriented risk tolerance related to the uncertainty risk. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2009,JPO&INPIT

Description

  The present invention relates to a system, a method, and a program that support creation of a distribution facility plan in consideration of uncertainties related to future predictions.

  Traditionally, power companies have calculated the amount of power distribution facility expansion costs and power distribution losses related to power distribution plan plans based on long-term power demand forecasts, as well as maintenance and operation, construction difficulty, social After comprehensive evaluation of environmental suitability, etc., a distribution facility plan that can minimize the total distribution cost is created. For example, Non-Patent Document 1 proposes a method for creating a distribution facility plan in consideration of introduction of a distributed power source. By the way, prediction of power demand is not always true. Therefore, when creating a distribution facility plan, it is necessary to consider the uncertainty of power demand forecast.

  In addition, due to the need for low-cost electric power, the introduction of renewable energy sources, etc., there are an increasing number of cases where electric power consumers independently introduce distributed power sources. Therefore, it is necessary to create a distribution facility plan that minimizes the distribution cost by taking into account the power supply from these distributed power sources. Therefore, electric power companies cannot accurately predict the future introduction of all distributed power sources. For this reason, when creating a distribution facility plan, it is necessary to consider the uncertainty of the prediction of the introduction of distributed power sources.

However, the method disclosed in Non-Patent Document 1 does not take into account the uncertainty of power demand prediction and distributed power supply introduction prediction.
Kazuhiko Koeda and 4 others, “Examination of distribution system facility planning method considering the introduction of distributed power supply”, IEEJ Transaction B (Electric Power and Energy Division), IEEJ, Vol. 126, No. 8, 2006, p. . 789-797

  It is an object of the present invention to provide an apparatus, a method, and a program for supporting the creation of a distribution facility plan in consideration of uncertainties such as power demand prediction and distributed power supply introduction prediction. .

A first invention is a distribution facility plan creation support system for creating a distribution facility plan in a predetermined planning target period,
A distribution facility acquisition unit that acquires information indicating the distribution facilities currently held;
A scenario acquisition unit that acquires a plurality of scenarios that can occur in a predetermined planning target period and the realization probability of each scenario;
A risk tolerance acquisition unit that obtains a utility function indicating the risk tolerance of the planning body related to the uncertainty risk that must be changed due to a scenario that differs from the scenario assumed in the initial plan in reality; ,
Initially selecting one scenario from the scenarios acquired in the scenario acquisition unit, and creating an initial plan related to the distribution facility to correspond to the selected scenario based on the information acquired in the distribution facility acquisition unit The planning department,
An initial cost calculation unit for calculating a power distribution cost necessary for realizing the initial plan created in the initial plan creation unit;
Based on the scenario acquired by the scenario acquisition unit and the initial plan created by the initial plan creation unit, the change plan related to the power distribution facility to cope with a scenario different from the selected scenario, A change plan creation section for creating all scenarios different from the selected scenario;
An additional cost calculation unit for calculating an additional cost necessary for realizing each change plan created in the change plan creation unit;
Expected cost calculation that calculates an expected cost that is an expected value of the additional cost based on each additional cost calculated by the additional cost calculating unit and the realization probability of the scenario corresponding to each additional cost acquired by the scenario acquiring unit And
A utility calculation unit that calculates an invalidity indicating the tolerance of the plan creation subject for each additional cost based on each additional cost calculated by the additional cost calculation unit and the utility function acquired by the risk tolerance acquisition unit. When,
Based on the realization probability of the scenario corresponding to each additional cost acquired by the scenario acquisition unit and the invalidity corresponding to each additional cost calculated by the utility calculation unit, the expected value of invalidity corresponding to each additional cost An expected utility calculation unit for calculating an expected invalid utility,
Based on the expected invalidity calculated in the expected utility calculation unit and the utility function acquired in the risk tolerance acquisition unit, the expected cost calculated in the expected cost calculation unit by considering the uncertainty risk An equivalent cost calculation unit that calculates an equivalent cost, which is a subjective cost in anticipation of uncertainty risk,
An optimal scenario that determines a scenario that minimizes the sum of the distribution cost calculated in the initial cost calculation unit and the equivalent cost calculated in the equivalent cost calculation unit from among a plurality of scenarios acquired in the scenario acquisition unit A decision unit;
It is a distribution facility plan creation support system characterized by comprising.

A second invention is a power distribution facility plan creation support system according to the first invention,
The scenario acquired in the scenario acquisition unit includes a forecast of power demand, and is a distribution facility plan creation support system.

A third invention is a distribution facility plan creation support system according to the first or second invention,
The distribution facility plan creation support system, characterized in that the scenario acquired by the scenario acquisition unit includes a prediction of introduction related to a distributed power source.

  ADVANTAGE OF THE INVENTION According to this invention, the apparatus, method, and program which support preparation of the power distribution equipment plan in consideration of uncertainties, such as electric power demand prediction and distributed power supply introduction prediction, can be provided.

  FIG. 1 is a diagram showing a hardware configuration of a distribution facility plan creation support system 1 according to an embodiment of the present invention. The distribution facility plan creation support system 1 includes a CPU 10, a memory 11, a storage device 12, a recording medium reading device 13, a communication interface 14, an input device 15, an output device 16, and the like.

  The CPU 10 reads the program stored in the storage device 12 into the memory 11 and executes it. Here, the storage device 12 is, for example, a hard disk drive. The recording medium reading device 13 is a drive device that reads a program and data recorded on a recording medium 17 such as a CD-ROM. The input device 15 is a keyboard, a mouse, or the like, and the output device 16 is a display, a printer, or the like.

  FIG. 2 is a block diagram of a distribution facility plan creation support system 1 according to an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in the figure, the distribution facility plan creation support system 1 includes a distribution facility acquisition unit 21, a scenario acquisition unit 22, a risk tolerance acquisition unit 23, an initial plan creation unit 24, an initial cost calculation unit 25, and a change plan creation unit. 26, an additional cost calculation unit 27, an expected cost calculation unit 28, a utility calculation unit 29, an expected utility calculation unit 30, an equivalent cost calculation unit 31, an optimal scenario determination unit 32, and an optimal plan creation unit 33. Each of the functional units 21 to 33 is realized by the CPU 10 reading and executing a program stored in the storage device 12.

The distribution facility acquisition unit 21 acquires information related to current distribution facilities such as distribution lines and substation-related facilities.
The scenario acquisition unit 22 acquires information indicating a plurality of scenarios that can occur in a predetermined planning target period and the realization probability of each scenario. Here, the scenario represents a transition of power demand or distributed power supply introduction amount.

FIG. 3 is an example of a scenario tree that represents a scenario for a planning period of four periods in a tree format. In each scenario, the target period (for example, 20 years) is divided into “periods” for a certain period (for example, 5 years), and the growth of the power demand or the amount of distributed power generation is high or low in each period. It is divided into two parts, and they are created for the planned period. The realization probability of each scenario is calculated as follows, for example, where P _H is the probability of high growth and P _L and (P _L = 1−P _H ) are the probability of low growth. .

Since scenario 1 is a case of high growth in all periods from the first period to the fourth period, the realization probability P ₁ = P _H ^{4 of} scenario 1 is obtained. On the other hand, the scenario 16 is a case where the growth is low in all the periods from the first period to the fourth period, so the realization probability of the scenario 16 is P ₁₆ = P _L ⁴ . Scenario 6 is a case where the first period is high growth, the second period is low growth, the third period is high growth, and the fourth period is low growth, so the realization probability of scenario 6 P ₆ = P _H ² · P _L ² Determined by the product of P _H and P _L in accordance with whether each period is high growth or low growth in the same manner for the other scenarios.

The risk tolerance obtaining unit 23 obtains a utility function indicating the risk tolerance of the plan creation subject relating to the uncertainty. In general, the higher the profit, the better. The lower the risk, the better. However, it is up to the planner to determine how much risk should be expected and how much profit should be expected. That is, the decision-making pattern of the planning body ((a) is indifferent to risk, (b) tends to avoid risk, or (c) tends to accept risk), and each pattern Including the degree of tendency, it is expressed by utility function. FIG. 4 is an example of utility functions of (a) risk indifference type, (b) risk avoidance type, and (c) risk acceptance type, and these utility functions are expressed, for example, as in Expression (1). be able to.
U (x) = x ⁿ (1)
n = 1: (a) Risk indifference type
n = 2: (b) Risk avoidance type
n = 1/2: (c) Risk acceptance type

  Utility is a concept that generally indicates the level of consumer satisfaction, but here, the degree of dissatisfaction with the additional costs (details will be described later) associated with the plan change is defined as a negative utility. To do. In addition, the utility function indicating the risk tolerance of the actual planning body can be clarified only by analyzing the decision-making pattern of the planning body for the first time, but here the above formula is used for convenience. did.

  The initial plan creation unit 24 selects a scenario from the scenarios acquired by the scenario acquisition unit 22 (hereinafter, the selected scenario is referred to as “scenario g”), and the initial plan relating to the distribution facility for handling the scenario g The plan is created based on the information related to the current distribution facility acquired by the distribution facility acquisition unit 21. That is, in the initial plan, based on the power demand forecast in scenario g and the introduction forecast of the distributed power source, when the current distribution facility exceeds the allowable value, the wire replacement, section division, new connection line, feeder or Plan for construction of new substation bank.

Initially cost calculation unit 25 calculates the distribution cost F _N is the cost necessary for realizing the initial plan created in initial planning unit 24. In other words, the distribution cost F _N is the distribution facility expansion cost F _INV necessary for realizing the initial plan, and the loss amount F _LOSS related to the distribution loss that occurs when the distribution facility is enhanced in accordance with this plan. Is the sum of A specific method of calculating the power distribution cost F _N is defined in Equation (2).
F _N = F _INV + F _LOSS (2)
Furthermore, each term of Formula (2) is represented by Formulas (3) and (6). First, the distribution facility expansion cost F _INV is expressed by equation (3).

F _INV = f _F (y) + f _B (y) (3)
Where f _F : feeder expansion cost function, f _B : substation bank expansion cost function, y = [y ⁽¹⁾ , y ⁽²⁾ ,... Y ^{(t) ,.} ,] ^T : Feeder expansion variable vector, t: Year, τ: Year of study, y ^(t) : Feeder expansion variable of year t.

ただし、Ｎ_Ｂ（ｙ^（ｔ））：ｔ年目の変電所バンク増設数、Ｃ_Ｆ：フィーダの設置コスト、Ｃ_Ｂ：変電所バンクの設置コスト、α^（ｔ）：現価換算係数（設備投資年度（ｔ年目）から計画検討最終年度までの総和）、Ｒ：設備経費係数（金利、減価償却費、人件費、修繕費等）、τ：計画検討期間（年数）とする。 In addition, the installation cost function f _B of the additional cost function f _F and substation banks of the feeder, the formula (4) (5).

Where N _B (y ^(t) ): Number of additional substation banks in year t, C _F : Feeder installation costs, C _B : Substation bank installation costs, α ^(t) : Current value conversion factor (equipment The sum from the investment year (year t) to the final year of the plan review), R: equipment cost factor (interest rate, depreciation, personnel costs, repair costs, etc.), and τ: plan review period (years).

ただし、β^（ｔ）：t年目の現価換算係数、γ：年間損失換算係数、ｅ_Ｌ：ｋＷｈあたりの配電線損失評価額、ｕ：総配電線区間数、ＬＯＳＳ_ｉ ^（ｔ）（）：ｔ年目、区間ｉの配電損失である。 Next, the distribution loss loss F _LOSS is expressed by Expression (6).

However, β ^(t) : Present value conversion coefficient in year t, γ: Annual loss conversion coefficient, e _L : Distribution line loss evaluation amount per kWh, u: Total number of distribution line sections, LOSS _i ^(t) () : Distribution loss in section i in year t.

ただし、Ｉ_ｉ ^（ｔ）：区間ｉ、ｔ年目の負荷電流、Ｉ_ｉ ^’（ｔ）：区間ｉ、ｔ年目の通過電流、ｒ_ｉ：区間ｉの単位亘長あたり線路抵抗、Ｌ_ｉ：区間ｉの亘長、Ｉ_Ｄｉ ^（ｔ）：区間ｉ、ｔ年目のピーク負荷電流、Ｓ_ｉ：区間ｉより末端側にある区間番号の集合、Ｎ_ｉ ^０：区間ｉの検討初年度の設備数、Ｕ_ｉ：区間ｉが含まれるフィーダの全区間番号の集合、Ｉ_{ＤＧｔｏｔａｌ} ^（ｔ）：導入される分散型電源の総設備容量、である。 In the case where the passing current is in the forward direction (no reverse flow ⁾ , each of the LOSS _i ^(t) under the conditions of [I _i ^(t) + I _i ^{′ (t)} ≧ 0, I _i ^{′ (t)} > 0] Elements can be formulated as in equations (7), (8), (9), and (10).

However, I _i ^(t) : section i, load current in t-year, I _i ^{′ (t)} : section i, passing current in t-year, r _i : line resistance per unit length in section i, L _i : Length of section i, I _Di ^(t) : Peak load current in section i, year t, S _i : Set of section numbers at the end of section i, N _i ⁰ : First period of examination of section i Number of facilities, U _i : set of all section numbers of feeders including section i, I _DGtotal ^(t) : total installed capacity of distributed power sources to be introduced.

  Based on the scenario acquired by the scenario acquisition unit 22 and the initial plan created by the initial plan creation unit 24, the change plan creation unit 26 relates to power distribution equipment to cope with a scenario different from the scenario g. Create a change plan.

  For example, although a distribution facility plan based on scenario g has been realized, in reality the demand for electricity has exceeded the expectations or the introduction of distributed power sources has not progressed as much as expected. In this case, the reserve power amount (= supplied power amount−demand power amount) assumed at the time of studying the plan will be lower. For this reason, when it is found that the power distribution facility based on the initial plan has a problem in power supply, it is necessary to urgently increase the power distribution facility in order to avoid the problem. In this case, the change plan is a plan for urgently increasing the power distribution equipment.

  On the other hand, although distribution facilities have been developed based on the initial plan based on scenario g, in reality, the increase in power demand has fallen below expectations and the introduction of distributed power sources has progressed more than expected. If it becomes a different scenario, it will exceed the reserve power amount assumed at the time of initial plan creation. In the change plan in this case, the distribution facilities will not be enhanced.

  By the way, when there are 16 scenarios, scenario 1 to scenario 16, as shown in FIG. 3 for example, the scenario acquisition unit 22 has 15 scenarios different from the scenario g. The change plan creation unit 26 creates a change plan (in the above example, 15 kinds of change plans) assuming all scenarios in which the scenario g is different from the scenario g.

  The additional cost calculation unit 27 calculates additional costs necessary for realizing the change plans created by the change plan creation unit 26, respectively. Here, the additional cost is the sum of the emergency extension cost EIC and the equipment surplus cost RIC described below.

ただし、ＥＩＣ：緊急設備増設コスト（円）、κ：比例定数、ＥＣ_ｍ ^（ｔ）：ｔ年目に緊急増設を行う設備ｍの設置コスト（円）である。なお、緊急設備の比例定数κは、事前に計画された配電設備増設コストと、設備容量の逼迫から緊急に設備増設を行った場合のコストとの比を表している。例えば、緊急に増設工事を行う場合の費用は通常時の２倍程度になるので、κ＝２とした。 If the reserve power amount is lower than the amount of reserve power that was assumed when the initial plan was created, urgent expansion work will be performed based on the change plan. It is done. Further, here, it is assumed that it is proportional to the capacity of the equipment to be added, and the emergency extension cost EIC is calculated by the equation (11).

However, EIC: Emergency equipment extension cost (yen), κ: Proportional constant, EC _m ^(t) : Installation cost (yen) of equipment m for emergency extension in t year. In addition, the proportionality constant κ of emergency equipment represents the ratio between the power distribution equipment expansion cost planned in advance and the cost when the equipment is urgently installed due to tight equipment capacity. For example, the cost for urgent expansion work is about twice that of normal time, so κ = 2.

ただし、ＲＩＣ：設備余剰コスト（円）、ＳＣ_ｍ ^（ｔ）：実際の負荷推移に対して必要十分なｔ年における設備ｍの投資コスト（円）、ＰＣ_ｍ ^（ｔ）：計画検討時におけるｔ年の設備ｍの投資コスト（円）である。ここで、ＳＣ_ｍ ^（ｔ）については、配電設備増設コストＦ_ＩＮＶを用いることができる。 On the other hand, if the reserve power amount estimated at the time of initial plan creation is exceeded, the equipment surplus cost, which is the difference between the capital investment cost in the plan and the capital investment cost when the necessary capital increase is made for the actual load transition Occurs. This equipment surplus cost RIC is calculated by equation (12).

However, RIC: equipment surplus cost (yen), SC _m ^(t) : investment cost (yen) of equipment m in year t necessary and sufficient for actual load transition, PC _m ^(t) : t at the time of planning review This is the investment cost (yen) for the annual facility m. Here, for SC _m ^(t) , the distribution facility expansion cost F _INV can be used.

ここで、ｇ，ｈ：シナリオ番号、ＮＩ（ｇ，ｈ）：不確実要素の推移をシナリオｇと想定して計画を行ったが実際の推移はシナリオｈだった場合のコスト、ｐ_ｈ：シナリオｈの実現確率である。 Since the additional cost NI is the emergency equipment extension cost EIC and the equipment surplus cost RIC, it is set as shown in Expression (13).
NI = EIC + RIC (13)
The expected cost calculation unit 28 considers the realization probability of each scenario acquired by the scenario acquisition unit 22 and corresponding to these additional costs to the additional costs calculated by the additional cost calculation unit 27, respectively. Is calculated. That is, as shown in the following formula (14), the sum of all the scenarios obtained by multiplying the formula (13) by the realization probability ( _ph ) of each scenario acquired by the scenario acquisition unit 22 is the expected cost. EX (g) can be calculated.

Here, g, h: scenario number, NI (g, h): cost when the transition of uncertain factors is assumed as scenario g, but the actual transition is scenario h, _ph : scenario The realization probability of h.

The utility calculation unit 29 performs invalidation indicating the tolerance of the plan creation entity for each additional cost based on each additional cost calculated by the additional cost calculation unit 27 and the utility function acquired by the risk tolerance acquisition unit 23. Calculate each. Specifically, as shown in the following equation (15), each additional cost calculated by equation (13) into equation (1), which is a utility function representing the risk tolerance acquired by the risk tolerance acquisition unit 23. By substituting NI (g, h), the invalidity for each additional cost is calculated.
U (g) = U (NI (g, h)) (15)

The expected utility calculation unit 30 calculates each additional cost based on the scenario realization probability corresponding to each additional cost acquired by the scenario acquisition unit 22 and the invalidity corresponding to each additional cost calculated by the utility calculation unit 29. Calculate the expected invalidity that is the expected value of the corresponding invalidity. Specifically, as shown in the following formula (16), each additional cost calculated by formula (15) into formula (1), which is a utility function representing the risk tolerance acquired by the risk tolerance acquisition unit 23. By substituting the invalidity for, the expected invalidation U _EX (g), which is the expected value of the invalidation U (g) corresponding to each additional cost NI (g, h), is calculated.

Based on the expected invalidity calculated by the expected utility calculation unit 30 and the utility function acquired by the risk tolerance acquisition unit 23, the equivalent cost calculation unit 31 does not satisfy the expected cost calculated by the expected cost calculation unit 28. Equivalent cost, which is a subjective cost in anticipation of certainty risk, is calculated. Specifically, as shown by the following equation (17), the expected invalidity U _EX (g) calculated by the equation (16) is substituted into the inverse function of the utility function of the equation (1), thereby obtaining an expectation. An equivalent cost EQ (g), which is a subjective cost with an uncertainty risk in the cost, is calculated.

ここで、Ｇ：全シナリオ集合、Ｆ：最終的な目的関数、Ｆ_Ｎ（ｇ）：シナリオｇの場合のＦ_Ｎである。 Optimal scenario determination unit 32, from the scenario obtained in the scenario acquisition unit 22, the sum of the equivalent cost EQ (g) calculated in distribution costs F _N equivalent cost calculation unit 31 calculated at the beginning cost calculation unit 25 A scenario that minimizes a certain formula (18) is searched.

Here, G: total scenario set, F: final objective function, F _N (g): F _N in the case of scenario g.

  The search for the scenario that minimizes the objective function F is a mixed integer programming problem having a non-linear objective function, so that a full search is essentially required, but it is not practical in view of the scale of the problem. Therefore, here, tabu search, which is one of meta-heuristic methods, is used as an approximate solution.

  The tabu search method is an approximate solution algorithm that performs a neighborhood solution search similar to the hill-climbing method. The characteristics of the tabu search method are that a transition is made to a bad solution and that a tabu list is used to avoid solution circulation. The taboo list is a memory for storing attributes that are information in solution transition. Since the attributes in the tabu list are excluded from the vicinity of the solution, the solution circulation can be prevented and an efficient search can be expected. Various approximate solutions that deal with similar problems have been proposed. Here, a general tabu search method is adopted.

  FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing a specific solution procedure. Note that y described in FIG. 5 and later is a vector value, and S (y), Y, and T are a set of vector values.

First, an initial solution yεY is determined, and the current approximate optimum solution y * = y is set (S502). Then, the repetition counter k = 0 is set, and the tabu list T is emptied (S504). If all the neighborhood solutions are taboos (S506: YES), the process ends. If no in all neighborhood solutions taboo _{(S506: NO), s k} (y) = OPTIMUM s as a _{(s (y)) k ∈s} k (y) choose -T (S508). Further, y = s _k (y) is set (S510). If F (y) <F (y ^* ) with respect to the current approximate optimum solution y ^* (S512: YES), y ^* = y is set (S514). If F (y) <F (y ^* ) is not satisfied with respect to the current approximate optimum solution y ^* (S512: NO), the process goes to S516. If the total number of repetitions k or y ^* after the last modification exceeds a predetermined value (S516: YES), the process ends. On the other hand, if the total number of repetitions k or y ^* has not exceeded the predetermined value since the last modification (S516: NO), the process returns to S506.

Here, Y is the set of all solutions y in the search space, S (y) is the set of movements s from solution y to neighboring solutions, and s ( y), the objective function value of the solution y is F (y). OPTIMUM (s (y)) is a function for finding the best movement. Generally, s _k (y) that minimizes the objective function value F (s (y)) is a minimum solution in the vicinity. Selected.

  Based on the scenario determined by the optimal scenario determination unit 32, the optimal plan creation unit 33 creates an optimal distribution facility plan including a substation bank facility and a distribution line facility composed of a trunk line and a branch line. FIG. 6 shows the substation bank facility and the distribution line facility calculated by the optimum plan creation unit 33 for each of the indifference type, avoidance type, and acceptance type utility functions acquired by the risk tolerance acquisition unit 23. It is an example about the relationship between the expansion time concerned and the number of expansion.

  As described above, according to the distribution facility plan creation support system 1 of the present embodiment, creation of a distribution facility plan in consideration of uncertainties such as power demand prediction and distributed power supply introduction prediction can be supported. In other words, the power distribution facility plan creation support system 1 can obtain the optimum facility plan that incorporates the subjectivity of the plan creation subject with respect to the risk and harmonizes the risk with the cost.

  In decision making in the presence of uncertainty risk, it is necessary to take into account the cost of anxiety that is not as originally planned, in addition to the expected cost that is the expected value of the actual cost. For example, the owner of a private car pays premiums for automobile insurance that exceed the expected cost required by multiplying the damages incurred in the event of an accident by the probability of occurrence of the accident. This shows that there is a need to reduce the risk of uncertainty even at a cost.

  In this way, even when creating a distribution facility plan, whether to adopt a plan with a low risk of plan change even if the initial investment cost is large, accepts the risk of some plan changes and the accompanying additional costs, but accepts the initial It is necessary to decide whether to adopt a plan with a low investment cost. The distribution facility plan creation support system 1 can reflect the subjective evaluation judgment for the uncertainty risk in the creation of the distribution maintenance plan.

  In addition, the description of the above embodiment is for facilitating understanding of the present invention, and does not limit the present invention. It goes without saying that the present invention can be changed and improved without departing from the gist thereof, and that the present invention includes equivalents thereof.

It is a figure which shows the hardware constitutions of the power distribution equipment plan creation assistance system 1 which is one Embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the whole structure of the power distribution equipment plan preparation assistance system 1 which is one Embodiment of this invention. It is an example of the scenario tree acquired in the scenario acquisition part 22. FIG. It is an example of each utility function of (a) risk indifference type, (b) risk avoidance type, and (c) risk acceptance type. 4 is a flowchart showing a procedure of an approximate solution method by a tabu search method performed in an optimum scenario determination unit 32. It is an example about the relationship between the expansion time concerning the substation bank equipment and distribution line equipment calculated in the optimal plan preparation part 33, and the number of expansion.

Explanation of symbols

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Distribution facility plan creation support system 10 CPU 11 Memory 12 Storage device 13 Recording medium reader 14 Communication interface 15 Input device 16 Output device 17 Recording medium 21 Distribution facility acquisition part 22 Scenario acquisition part 23 Risk tolerance acquisition part 24 Initial plan preparation Unit 25 initial cost calculation unit 26 change plan creation unit 27 additional cost calculation unit 28 expected cost calculation unit 29 utility calculation unit 30 expected utility calculation unit 31 equivalent cost calculation unit 32 optimum scenario determination unit 33 optimum plan creation unit

Claims (6)

A distribution facility plan creation support system for creating a distribution facility plan in a predetermined plan target period,
A distribution facility acquisition unit that acquires information indicating the distribution facilities currently held;
A scenario acquisition unit that acquires a plurality of scenarios that can occur in a predetermined planning target period and the realization probability of each scenario;
A risk tolerance acquisition unit that obtains a utility function indicating the risk tolerance of the planning body related to the uncertainty risk that must be changed due to a scenario that differs from the scenario assumed in the initial plan in reality; ,
Initially selecting one scenario from the scenarios acquired in the scenario acquisition unit, and creating an initial plan related to the distribution facility to correspond to the selected scenario based on the information acquired in the distribution facility acquisition unit The planning department,
An initial cost calculation unit for calculating a power distribution cost necessary for realizing the initial plan created in the initial plan creation unit;
Based on the scenario acquired by the scenario acquisition unit and the initial plan created by the initial plan creation unit, the change plan related to the power distribution facility to cope with a scenario different from the selected scenario, A change plan creation section for creating all scenarios different from the selected scenario;
An additional cost calculation unit for calculating an additional cost necessary for realizing each change plan created in the change plan creation unit;
Expected cost calculation that calculates an expected cost that is an expected value of the additional cost based on each additional cost calculated by the additional cost calculating unit and the realization probability of the scenario corresponding to each additional cost acquired by the scenario acquiring unit And
A utility calculation unit that calculates an invalidity indicating the tolerance of the plan creation subject for each additional cost based on each additional cost calculated by the additional cost calculation unit and the utility function acquired by the risk tolerance acquisition unit. When,
Based on the realization probability of the scenario corresponding to each additional cost acquired by the scenario acquisition unit and the invalidity corresponding to each additional cost calculated by the utility calculation unit, the expected value of invalidity corresponding to each additional cost An expected utility calculation unit for calculating an expected invalid utility,
Based on the expected invalidity calculated in the expected utility calculation unit and the utility function acquired in the risk tolerance acquisition unit, the expected cost calculated in the expected cost calculation unit by considering the uncertainty risk An equivalent cost calculation unit that calculates an equivalent cost, which is a subjective cost in anticipation of uncertainty risk,
An optimal scenario that determines a scenario that minimizes the sum of the distribution cost calculated in the initial cost calculation unit and the equivalent cost calculated in the equivalent cost calculation unit from among a plurality of scenarios acquired in the scenario acquisition unit A decision unit;
A distribution facility plan creation support system characterized by comprising: A power distribution facility plan creation support system according to claim 1,
Based on the scenario determined by the optimal scenario determination unit, the system includes an optimal plan creation unit that creates an optimal distribution facility plan including a substation bank facility and a distribution line facility composed of a trunk line and a branch line. Power distribution facility plan creation support system. A distribution facility plan creation support system according to claim 1 or 2,
The scenario acquired in the scenario acquisition unit includes a prediction of power demand, and a distribution facility plan creation support system, characterized in that: A distribution facility plan creation support system according to any one of claims 1 to 3,
The distribution facility plan creation support system, characterized in that the scenario acquired by the scenario acquisition unit includes an introduction prediction related to a distributed power source. A distribution facility plan creation support method for creating distribution facility plan creation in a predetermined plan target period,
Computer
Obtaining information indicating power distribution equipment currently owned;
Obtaining a plurality of scenarios that can occur in a predetermined planning target period and the realization probability of each scenario;
Obtaining a utility function indicating the risk tolerance of the planning body regarding the uncertainty risk that the plan must be changed due to a scenario that differs from the scenario assumed in the initial plan in reality;
Selecting one scenario from the acquired scenarios, and creating an initial plan related to power distribution equipment to correspond to the selected scenario based on the acquired information;
Calculating a distribution cost required to realize the created initial plan;
Based on the acquired scenario and the created initial plan, all the scenarios different from the selected scenario are changed according to the distribution facility to cope with the case where the scenario becomes different from the selected scenario. Steps to create and
Calculating additional costs necessary to realize each of the created change plans;
Calculating an expected cost that is an expected value of the additional cost based on each calculated additional cost and the realization probability of the scenario corresponding to each acquired additional cost;
Based on each calculated additional cost and the acquired utility function, calculating each invalid utility indicating the tolerance of the plan creator for each additional cost;
Based on the realization probability of the scenario corresponding to each acquired additional cost and the invalidity corresponding to each calculated additional cost, an expected invalidity that is an expected value of invalidity corresponding to each additional cost is calculated. Steps,
Based on the calculated expected invalidity and the obtained utility function, an equivalent cost that is a subjective cost that estimates the uncertainty risk is calculated by estimating the uncertainty risk. A calculating step;
Determining a scenario that minimizes the sum of the calculated power distribution cost and the calculated equivalent cost from the plurality of acquired scenarios;
Power distribution facility plan creation support method characterized by including. A distribution facility plan creation support program for creating distribution facility plan creation in a predetermined plan target period,
On the computer,
Obtaining information indicating power distribution equipment currently owned;
Obtaining a plurality of scenarios that can occur in a predetermined planning target period and the realization probability of each scenario;
Obtaining a utility function indicating the risk tolerance of the planning body regarding the uncertainty risk that the plan must be changed due to a scenario that differs from the scenario assumed in the initial plan in reality;
Selecting one scenario from the acquired scenarios, and creating an initial plan related to power distribution equipment to correspond to the selected scenario based on the acquired information;
Calculating a distribution cost required to realize the created initial plan;
Based on the acquired scenario and the created initial plan, all the scenarios different from the selected scenario are changed according to the distribution facility to cope with the case where the scenario becomes different from the selected scenario. Steps to create and
Calculating additional costs necessary to realize each of the created change plans;
Calculating an expected cost that is an expected value of the additional cost based on each calculated additional cost and the realization probability of the scenario corresponding to each acquired additional cost;
Based on each calculated additional cost and the acquired utility function, calculating each invalid utility indicating the tolerance of the plan creator for each additional cost;
Based on the realization probability of the scenario corresponding to each acquired additional cost and the invalidity corresponding to each calculated additional cost, an expected invalidity that is an expected value of invalidity corresponding to each additional cost is calculated. Steps,
Based on the calculated expected invalidity and the obtained utility function, an equivalent cost that is a subjective cost that estimates the uncertainty risk is calculated by estimating the uncertainty risk. A calculating step;
Determining a scenario that minimizes the sum of the calculated power distribution cost and the calculated equivalent cost from the plurality of acquired scenarios;
A distribution facility plan creation support program characterized in that

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