JP2007287110A - Moving facilities predicted information notifying system using moved result in repeatedly moving facilities - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a moving facilities predicted information notifying system capable of obtaining highly accurate predicted information beforehand (when making a reservation or the like) in the case of utilizing moving facilities (route buses and regular delivery vehicles or the like). <P>SOLUTION: The moving facilities predicted information notifying system comprises the route bus 1 loaded with a predicted information gathering system 2 for gathering moving facilities information to be used for prediction, a server system 4 for storing the information for each kind at all times, calculating statistics when desired in response to a request from a mobile phone 5 or the like and notifying a result or the like, and an information terminal such as the mobile phone 5 capable of accessing the server system 4. The highly accurate predicted information is easily and timely obtained. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2008,JPO&INPIT

Description

  The present invention performs comparison and prediction using a computer system capable of statistical calculation such as multivariate analysis of past sales performance (arrival time, boarding rate, sales amount, etc.) of a transportation system that repeatedly moves such as a route bus, The present invention relates to a system that provides accurate prediction information to the user and related parties.

Conventionally, there is a technology for collecting and organizing the operation status of transportation facilities using communication devices and computer systems and providing accurate information to necessary parties in a timely manner (see, for example, Patent Documents 1, 2, and 3). . However, this technology only tells the current state of operation and does not predict future movement. Alternatively, the arrival time is simply predicted using the time difference between the current state of operation and a preset operation diagram.
Patent Publication 2002-133589 Patent Publication 2004-166275 Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 11-232495

  For this reason, for example, each route bus user predicts the future operation by taking into account the knowledge and experience stored in the latest available operation situation. Personally stored information has a small amount of information, and includes a lot of information that is neither quantitative nor logical, and is inaccurate. And this raises the user's anxiety and makes the waiting time too long for mischief, or confirms the operation status frequently enough. In addition, information that is simply predicted from the operation status and diagram table has a small amount of information used for prediction, and does not take into account changes that may occur in the future, resulting in poor accuracy. Furthermore, there is no supplementary information such as a reliability rate, and it is difficult to use because it is difficult to determine how much the user can trust.

  Accordingly, an object of the present invention is to solve the above-mentioned problems of the prior art and to provide a large amount of objective information logically and quantitatively to provide highly accurate prediction information. As a result, mobile users and related parties can improve the convenience and security from the stage of selecting the mobile engine and selecting the mobile engine to the completion of the transfer, and waste time and You can reduce your actions.

  According to the first aspect of the present invention, information that can be used for the prediction calculation of each of the repeatedly moving organizations (for example, regular passenger flights, regular delivery flights, etc.) is transmitted to the central server device, classified and stored, and stored in the server Information is extracted, reclassified, statistically calculated, etc. according to the required conditions by accessing information terminals such as mobile phones and personal computers, and notified to mobile organization users and related parties as forecast information It is.

  The invention described in claim 2 is a new type of data for prediction (for example, boarding) based on data for prediction (for example, number of passengers, number of people getting off, boarding capacity) stored by a program in which the server described above is provided in advance. Rate) can be created and stored.

  The invention according to claim 3 is most suitable by a program pre-installed in the server system when there is a prediction request of a certain mobile engine from an information terminal or the like (for example, a notification request of an estimated time when the bus B arrives at the bus stop A). Select a statistical calculation method from multiple regression analysis, discriminant analysis, quantification type 1, quantification type 2, etc., and use all the data stored up to the previous one to estimate, estimation interval, reliability rate, contribution rate, correlation coefficient And the like, such that a suitable statistical result is sent to the terminal or the like as prediction information.

  In the invention according to claim 4, for example, when there are a plurality of comparable mobile institutions connecting two points and the server stores the data of both, a prediction request from the information terminal or the like (for example, the bus D to the bus stop C) And bus E are in operation, and the most appropriate test / estimation method is selected based on the request for checking the difference in arrival time and the request for checking the difference in arrival time. It is configured to send appropriate statistical results such as estimated values, estimated intervals, and reliability rates of excellent engines to the terminal.

  The invention described in claim 5 describes the nature of data used for statistical calculation (number of data sets, data acquisition period, number of abnormal values, data type, etc.) and various statistics {significance level, contribution rate, (heavy) phase. Select the most appropriate supplementary explanation item (advice, judgment, comment, etc.) from the combination of the number of relations, Derby Watson ratio, etc. using the program provided in the server, and the statistical results (average value, variation value, estimated value, estimated value) (Section, reliability rate, etc.).

  The invention described in claim 6 is to input prediction conditions (a flight name to be searched, departure date / time, weather, etc.) and notification conditions (notification date / time, notification destination, notification method, etc.) and a prediction item (arrival time, number of remaining seats) to be searched. , Whether or not there is a traffic jam), and when the latest information up to that point is desired, the desired location can be notified by the desired method. The received information is configured to be notified by a method that can be perceived by five senses such as an image, sound, light, vibration, and smell by a predetermined program.

The invention according to claim 7 can detect, collect, store, and print out data for predicting a mobile engine automatically or manually by a device provided in the mobile engine or its related facilities, and a communication means such as a mobile telephone. It can be automatically or manually sent to the server using.

  In the present invention, for example, when a user makes a boarding reservation in a passenger transportation system or the like, the best transportation system can be selected. Realistic and logical prediction information obtained by statistically processing past results can be obtained before the flight starts. As a result, the user can plan a highly accurate movement schedule from the initial stage, and can reduce waiting time, transit time, etc., and can move efficiently. It also reduces user anxiety and excessive confirmation.

  In addition, when an abnormal situation (abnormal weather, incident, accident, etc.) occurs, only the past similar cases are searched and statistical calculations are performed, so that passengers related to conventional passenger agencies such as forecasting operations and forecasting restart of operations when abnormal situations occur There is reliability and logical information that the user could not obtain.

  Alternatively, for example, when a user considers which transportation means to use in a cargo transportation system or the like, it can be used as a judgment material for selecting an efficient transportation system. The prediction information provided by the present invention allows the user and the transportation personnel to plan a highly accurate delivery schedule, and reduces both excessive delivery waiting time and cargo waiting time. It also reduces user anxiety and excessive confirmation.

  In addition, when an abnormal situation (abnormal weather, incident, accident, etc.) occurs, only the past similar cases are searched and statistically calculated, so that the delivery agency in the event of an abnormal situation and delivery resumption prediction etc. There is reliability that the user could not obtain, and logical information can be provided.

BEST MODE FOR CARRYING OUT THE INVENTION

  FIG. 1 illustrates one embodiment of the present invention.

  In FIG. 1, a route bus 1 includes a prediction information collection system 2 that can automatically or manually detect, collect, store, transmit, and print out bus information used for prediction. The prediction information collecting system 2 is connected to a server system 4 installed in the center via a switching facility 3 of a mobile telephone company by transmission.

  The prediction information collection system 2 mounted on the route bus 1 appropriately transmits data used for predetermined prediction to the server system 4. The server system 4 receives these pieces of information automatically or manually as needed, and stores each piece of information by type. Information to be stored includes, for example, route name, flight number, passenger capacity, loading capacity, departure date / day / time, stop date / day / time, arrival date / day / time, number of passengers, number of passengers, weather, temperature , Wind speed, wiper operation day / day / time, wiper stop date / day / time, brake operation day / day / time, brake release date / day / time, loading day / day / time, unloading day / day / time There are times, loadings, unloading, events / incidents / accidents / festivals, etc., at the time of the flight operation on the route.

  The server system 4 creates a new type of data by using a predetermined program using a part of the stored data or by a program manually created according to the situation. For example, the boarding rate is calculated and stored as new data immediately after the number of passengers, the number of passengers getting off, and the boarding capacity are stored. Alternatively, the cumulative wiper operation time is calculated and stored from the wiper operation time and the wiper stop time.

  The information stored in the server system 4 is automatically or manually requested from the mobile telephone 5 or the like of the route bus user or related person using the mobile telephone company exchange facility 3 or the like. The server system 4 performs information processing such as statistical calculation, and notifies the mobile phone display unit 5a, the mobile phone speaker unit 5b, and the like of the prediction result that satisfies the usage and the requirements of the parties concerned.

  FIG. 2 shows an example of a statistical calculation program flow diagram.

  FIG. 3 is a block diagram showing a statistical information combination table in the statistical calculation program flow diagram.

  For example, if there is a "request for prediction of arrival time of bus stop G" from the mobile phone 5 or the like under the condition of "3 pm on Wednesday, March 3rd, route bus F, rain, etc." It is done as follows. The server system 4 identifies the type of data of the requested objective variable and explanatory variable, and selects multiple regression analysis from a “combination table such as multivariate analysis” provided in advance in the program. Next, a multiple regression equation is created by taking the arrival time of the bus stop G as an objective variable from all stored data. Then, the above condition is applied to this equation, and the estimated arrival time at the bus stop G, the estimated section, the reliability rate, the contribution rate, the multiple correlation coefficient, and the like are calculated.

  Next, select the supplementary explanation items by associating the properties of the data used for the statistical calculation and the calculated statistics with the “statistical information combination table” set in the program in the server system 4 in advance. At the same time, the mobile phone 5 is notified. For example, the data used in the above example and the various statistics calculated are the numbers in the “Statistical Information Combination Table”. 2 conditions {number of data sets 31 to 90, number of abnormal values 0, data acquisition period 6 to 30 days, significant difference test 1% significant, (multiple) correlation coefficient 0.91 or more, Derby Watson ratio 1.6 To 2.4, contribution ratio of 0.81 or more} and the statistical calculation result is an estimated value of 15:00, an estimated interval of 14:55 to 16:05, and a reliability rate of 99%, the following supplementary explanation items corresponding thereto Is selected together with the statistical result and sent to the mobile telephone 5 or the like. “Comment: Precise prediction is possible under the same conditions as the data acquisition time. Conclusion: Expected time is estimated at 15:00 and arrives between 14:55 and 16:05 with 99% probability. Judgment: Statistical accuracy is extremely high, but monthly fluctuations etc. are not taken into account and should be taken care of carefully. Advice: Considering monthly fluctuations, seasonal fluctuations, the presence of events, etc. To go. " With this information, even people without statistical knowledge can easily understand the degree.

  FIG. 4 shows a prediction information collection system 2 installed on the route bus 1.

  The prediction information collection system 2 includes an information acquisition unit 6 that detects and collects information necessary for prediction of a mobile engine, a CPU unit 7 that processes information obtained through the information acquisition unit 6, and an interface that exchanges information. Unit 8, HD unit 9 that can store acquired information and programs, printer unit 10 that can output acquired information, protocol converter unit 11 that generates a protocol necessary for transmission of a mobile phone, mobile phone, etc. It is the structure provided with the transmission part 12 which transmits to the server system 4 using this line.

  FIG. 5 shows a schematic operation flow in this embodiment.

  Information T used for prediction is sent from the prediction information collecting system 2 to the server system 4 located in the center. The server system 4 stores the information T for each type by the above-described method, and also creates and stores a new type of data using some types of data. On the other hand, when a search request t for prediction information is received from a mobile organization user or a related party via the mobile phone 5 or the like, the server system 4 performs statistical calculation using the data stored up to that point when the requester desires. The result is sent to the mobile phone 5 or the like. In the mobile phone 5 or the like that has received the information, the information is notified to the parties concerned through the display unit 5a and the speaker unit 5b.

  FIG. 6 is a flowchart (an example) illustrating a process from a request for prediction information to reception of a result.

  A user of a mobile organization or a related person accesses the server system 4 by a predetermined method using the mobile telephone 5 or the like. The server system 4 transmits a “search purpose selection menu” (information for selecting either “mobile organization prediction” or “mobile organization comparison prediction”). The mobile telephone 5 or the like notifies this information through the display unit 5a, the speaker unit 5b, or the like. This information is sent to the server system 4 when the user or the related person selects “predicting mobile organization” by the mobile phone 5 or the like. The server system 4 uses “prediction conditions” (information for inputting search conditions such as the use date / time of the mobile organization, route name, flight name, weather, presence / absence of festivals) necessary for prediction, and “notification conditions” (notifications) Information for inputting date / time, notification destination, notification method), “prediction item” (information for selecting search items such as arrival time prediction, boarding rate prediction, remaining seat number prediction, etc.) to the mobile phone 5 etc. send. The mobile telephone 5 or the like notifies this user or related person of this information by the method described above. When the user or related person inputs “prediction condition” and “notification condition” and selects “prediction item” and sends it, the server system 4 receiving the request will request the user or the related person. Send the requested forecast to the desired notification destination. The mobile telephone 5 or the like that has received the notification notifies the mobile organization user and related parties by the method described above.

  When “Mobile Engine Comparison Prediction” is selected, the server system 4 determines the “Comparison Conditions” necessary for the comparison (such as the date and time of use of the mobile engine, the day of the week, the route name, the weather, the presence / absence of festivals, etc. Information for entering search conditions), "Notification conditions" (information for entering notification date, notification location, notification method), "Comparison items" (estimated arrival time comparison, estimated ride rate comparison, remaining seats) Information for selecting search items such as expected number comparison) is sent to the mobile telephone 5 or the like. The mobile telephone 5 or the like notifies this information to the mobile organization user and related parties by the method described above. When this user or related person inputs the “comparison condition” and “notification condition” and selects “comparison item” and sends it, the server system 4 that receives this will send the date and time desired by the user or related person. The requested comparison prediction is performed and sent to the desired notification destination by the desired method. The mobile telephone 5 or the like that has received the notification notifies the mobile organization user and related parties by the method described above.

  Users of mobile organizations and related parties can select the flight that is expected to be most appropriate by obtaining such prediction information in advance (for example, at the time of reservation), or schedule a wait at the bus stop at the time that seems to be most appropriate. Can do. In addition, an efficient and safe schedule can be established. In addition to the information obtained from the operation schedule and the operation status at that time, it is possible for parties involved in railways (eg track maintenance workers) to make realistic predictions (actual ability value predictions) at an early stage. And the sense of security is greatly improved.

An embodiment of the present invention Statistical calculation program flow chart (example) Block diagram showing statistical information combination table in statistical calculation program flow chart Block diagram of prediction information collection system Operation flow schematic diagram in this embodiment Flow diagram showing the process from requesting prediction information to receiving results (example)

Explanation of symbols

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Route bus 2 Predictive information collection system 3 Mobile telephone company exchange facility 4 Server system 5 Mobile telephone 5a Mobile telephone display part 5b Mobile telephone speaker part 6 Information acquisition part 7 CPU part 8 Interface part 9 HD part 10 Printer part 11 Protocol converter section 12 Mobile phone section

Claims (7)

  Past travel information (departure date / time, arrival date / time, driver name, etc.), travel environment (weather, road condition, etc.), travel conditions (travel route, each point) Distance information, etc.) and sales information (sales, number of passengers, unloading amount, etc.), etc., and a prediction information collection system that sends it to a separate server, and a program that stores and statistically calculates sent information as needed And a mobile system prediction information notification system characterized by comprising a system such as an information terminal that can access the server and receive prediction information including the latest prediction information.   The server system according to claim 1, wherein when the data is stored by type, a new type of data used for prediction can be created and stored based on the stored data.   2. The statistical result suitable for prediction of an estimated value, an estimation interval, a reliability rate, a contribution rate, a correlation coefficient, and the like can be calculated and notified according to a request from an information terminal (prediction request, etc.). Server system.   When there are multiple comparable mobile institutions, the statistical results suitable for judging the superiority or inferiority among the mobile institutions, such as presence / absence of significant difference, estimated value, estimation interval, significance level, etc. can be notified. The server system according to claim 1, wherein:   The server system according to claim 1, wherein an appropriate supplementary explanation item (comment, judgment, advice, etc.) can be selected and notified from the properties of the data used for the prediction and various statistics obtained.   A system such as a server system and an information terminal according to claim 1, comprising a program that can be received in a desired manner at a desired location when a mobile organization user or a related person requests prediction information.   The prediction information collection system according to claim 1, wherein information used for the prediction can be detected, collected, recorded, printed out, notified, and transmitted.

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