JP2007172117A - Scenario earthquake selection system - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a scenario earthquake selection system, in which a scenario type seismic motion evaluation result and a probabilistic earthquake hazard evaluation result at an intended point can be visually browsed. <P>SOLUTION: This scenario earthquake selection system comprises a trench type earthquake database 22, an active fault-resulted earthquake database 23, an other earthquake database 24, and a ground amplification factor database. A user can obtain the visual scenario type seismic motion evaluation result and probabilistic earthquake hazard evaluation result only by input to an evaluation object point information setting column, an evaluation period information setting column, and a ground amplification factor correction value information setting column. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2007,JPO&INPIT

Description

  The present invention relates to an assumed earthquake selection system that calculates an earthquake hazard evaluation at an evaluation target point of interest.

  When creating earthquake-resistant designs for buildings, disaster prevention plans and business continuity plans for facilities, what kind of seismic motion is likely to occur at locations where buildings are to be built or where facilities exist? It is very important to assume. Predicting what kind of earthquakes may occur in the future at such a point of interest varies depending on the point of interest, and although there is a large uncertainty, there is a possibility of receiving it at the point of interest in the future An attempt to evaluate a certain ground motion is called “earthquake hazard evaluation”, and many studies have been made so far.

  There are two methods for seismic hazard assessment: “scenario-type seismic motion assessment” and “probabilistic seismic hazard assessment”. Scenario-type seismic motion evaluation is a method that evaluates the seismic motion at the point of interest caused by the earthquake, assuming a specific earthquake, and the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is based on all earthquakes occurring around the point of interest. This method evaluates the relationship between the seismic motion occurring in the future and the probability of occurrence in consideration of the probability of occurrence.

  Many research results have been accumulated so far for both methods of scenario-type ground motion evaluation and probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation. The inventors have also been engaged in the development of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment systems.

By the way, in March 2005, the Earthquake Research Committee of the Government's Earthquake Research Promotion Headquarters published the “Earthquake Motion Prediction Map with a National Overview” (Non-Patent Document 1). This consists of a “probabilistic seismic motion prediction map” based on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and a “earthquake motion prediction map specifying seismic source faults” based on scenario-type seismic motion prediction for specific earthquakes. In addition, an earthquake hazard station “J-SHIS” has been released by the National Institute for Science and Technology for Disaster Prevention as a public system using digital data of these evaluation results.
"National earthquake prediction map" report Earthquake Research Promotion Headquarters / Earthquake Investigation Committee (March 23, 2005) Earthquake hazard station “J-SHIS” (Japan Seismic Hazard Information Station) Internet URL: http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/

  The system released as the earthquake hazard station “J-SHIS” can handle only the evaluation results in 1km mesh units, and the earthquake hazard station “J-SHIS” Pinpoint information could not be obtained, and effective data could not be obtained when building earthquake-resistant designs for buildings, disaster prevention plans for facilities, and business continuity plans. In addition, the earthquake hazard station “J-SHIS” is limited to displaying a probabilistic seismic motion prediction map, and information for comprehensively judging future earthquakes and ground motions to be warned at the point of interest in an integrated visual manner. It is not something to present. Therefore, there has been a problem that it is impossible to meet the need to formulate a disaster prevention plan while visually browsing information related to a point of interest where a building is to be constructed.

  The present invention solves the above-mentioned problem, and includes the results of scenario-type ground motion evaluation and probabilistic earthquake hazard evaluation at pinpoints (up to a unit of latitude and longitude), including information on probabilistic earthquakes. Therefore, a system that provides a comprehensive visual display is provided.

  To that end, the invention according to claim 1 is a hypothetical earthquake selection system for calculating an earthquake hazard evaluation at a target evaluation target site, including a trench-type earthquake database, an active fault-induced earthquake database, other earthquake databases, and a ground amplification factor database. And an evaluation target point information setting field that prompts the user to input position information of the evaluation target point, an evaluation period information setting field that prompts the user to input information related to the evaluation period, and a correction value of the ground amplification factor A ground amplification factor correction value information setting field that prompts the user to input information, and the information input in the evaluation target point information setting field, the evaluation period information setting field, and the ground amplification factor correction value information setting field And the trench-type earthquake database, the active fault-induced earthquake database, the other earthquake database, the ground amplification factor database, Based on the scenario type ground motion evaluation results, and calculates a probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation.

  The invention according to claim 2 is characterized in that, in the assumed earthquake selection system according to claim 1, a hazard map, an amplification factor map, an active fault map, and an epicenter map at an evaluation target point of further interest are displayed. And

  The invention according to claim 3 is the assumed earthquake selection system according to claim 2, wherein the hazard map, the amplification factor map, the active fault map, and the epicenter map are displayed in parallel with two types of scale maps. It is characterized by that.

  According to a fourth aspect of the present invention, in the assumed earthquake selection system according to any one of the first to third aspects, the contribution degree of each earthquake factor is displayed in a graph in the probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation result. It is characterized by.

  According to the assumed earthquake selection system of the present invention, the scenario-type seismic motion evaluation result and the probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation result relating to the point of interest can be viewed visually. It is very convenient to develop a business continuity plan.

  Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. FIG. 1 is an overall configuration diagram of an assumed earthquake selection system according to an embodiment of the present invention. The main body of the assumed earthquake selection system according to the present invention is constructed by a predetermined computer such as a personal computer, and a program (software) for the assumed earthquake selection system that realizes various functions related to the assumed earthquake selection system by the predetermined computer is provided. Stored in an external memory such as a hard disk and installed.

  In FIG. 1, a CPU 11 retrieves and acquires output data by communicating with an external device in accordance with a program ROM stored in a ROM 13, a program stored in a large-capacity external memory 20, or the like. , Processing of output data in which images, characters, tables, and the like are mixed, and management of a database stored in the external memory 20 is executed.

  The CPU 11 comprehensively controls each device connected to the system bus 10. In addition, the program ROM in the ROM 13 or the external memory 20 stores an operating system program (hereinafter referred to as OS) which is a control program for the CPU 11. The ROM 13 or the external memory 20 stores various data used when performing output data processing and the like. The RAM 12 functions as a main memory and work area for the CPU 11.

  A keyboard controller (KBC) 15 controls key input from a keyboard (KB) 18 or a pointing device (not shown). A CRT controller (CRTC) 16 controls display on a display means such as a CRT display (CRT) 19.

The external memory controller (MC) 17 accesses the external memory 20 such as a hard disk (HD) or a flexible disk (FD) that stores a boot program, various applications, font data, user files, edit files, printer drivers, and the like. Control The communication I / F controller 14 controls communication with an external device via a network, whereby the system acquires necessary data from a database held by the external device, It is configured to be able to send information to the device.

  In the external memory 20, in addition to an operating system program (hereinafter referred to as OS) that is a control program of the CPU 11, an assumed earthquake selection system program 21, a trench-type earthquake database 22, an active fault-caused earthquake database 23, and the like used in this program An earthquake database 24 and a ground amplification factor database 25 are stored.

  FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an outline of the storage contents of the trench-type earthquake database 22. As shown in FIG. 2, the trench-type earthquake database 22 includes “trench-type earthquake name”, “average occurrence interval”, “latest activity period”, “10-year occurrence probability”, “30-year occurrence probability”, “50 Data such as “annual occurrence probability” and “magnitude” are stored.

  FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an outline of the contents stored in the active fault-induced earthquake database 23. As shown in FIG. 3, the active fault-induced earthquake database 23 includes “fault name”, “average activity interval”, “elapsed time”, “10-year occurrence probability”, “30-year occurrence probability”, “50 years”. Data such as “probability of occurrence” and “magnitude” are stored.

  FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an outline of the contents stored in the other earthquake database 24. As shown in FIG. 4, the other earthquake database 24 includes “fault name”, “average activity interval”, “10-year occurrence probability”, “30-year occurrence probability”, “50-year occurrence probability”, “magnitude”. Etc. are stored.

  In the ground amplification factor database 25, data relating to amplification characteristics (standard values) of the surface ground at each point (1 km mesh) in Japan is recorded.

  Next, data processing of the assumed earthquake selection system program 21 will be described. FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an outline of the data processing flow of the assumed earthquake selection system program 21. In FIG. 5, when the position information related to the latitude and longitude of the evaluation target point is input in S1, and the evaluation span of the target period is input in S2, these input information, the trench-type earthquake database 22, and the active fault cause The evaluation based on the probability model of seismic activity is calculated from the three databases of the earthquake database 23 and the other earthquake database 24 (S3). On the other hand, a seismic motion probability model based on the information input in S1 and S2, the trench-type earthquake database 22, the active fault-induced earthquake database 23, the information on the other three databases, and the ground amplification factor database 25. Is evaluated (S4). From the evaluation using the seismic activity probability model and the evaluation based on the seismic motion probability model, there is an evaluation of the probability of exceeding the strong ground motion in the target period (S5), and the evaluation of the occurrence probability of the maximum seismic intensity within the target period (S6). An assessment (S7) of the relative likelihood of an earthquake that results in an earthquake motion exceeding the strength is calculated.

  Next, an outline of how to use the assumed earthquake selection system will be described with reference to the actual screen on the display means of the assumed earthquake selection system. FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an example of a screen on the display means of the assumed earthquake selection system. FIG. 6 is a screen for inputting position information related to the point of interest to be evaluated, and the latitude and longitude of the point to be displayed are input on this screen. Since manual input of latitude / longitude is complicated, for example, it is possible to automatically input latitude / lightness information by clicking a point displayed on the screen of the map software by linking with the map software. You may comprise.

  Next, if the correction value of the ground amplification factor is known, the screen shifts to the screen in FIG. 7 that prompts the user to input the value. If a ground survey or the like is performed and the correction value of the ground amplification factor at a specific location is known, the correction value is manually input from the screen of FIG. When the correction value is unknown, the input field is left blank, and the system is set to automatically use the information in the ground amplification factor database 25.

  Next, the screen shifts to the screen shown in FIG. The user selects and inputs an evaluation period for evaluating the earthquake hazard from among 10 years, 30 years, and 50 years. When the above inputs are made, calculation is performed by the assumed earthquake selection system, and both the “scenario-type seismic motion evaluation result” and the “probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation result” are displayed. These result display screens are shown in FIGS. 9 and 10, respectively.

  FIG. 9 is an example of a display screen of “scenario-type seismic motion evaluation result”. In FIG. 9, the display portion at the upper left of the screen shows information on the evaluation target point, and more specifically, the address, latitude and longitude of the evaluation target point. , Showing the ground amplification factor.

  In the upper right part of the screen, an evaluation period and a map selection button are displayed. The evaluation period column shows the evaluation period selected on the screen of FIG. In addition, clicking on the “hazard”, “amplification factor”, “active fault”, and “seismic” buttons will display the respective maps. These maps are shown in FIGS. 11 to 14 and will be described later.

  On the display screen at the lower left of the screen, a list of typical earthquake specifications is displayed. This is a list of specifications of typical earthquakes that affect the evaluation target site. In this list, “earthquake / active fault name” is the name of an earthquake or active fault that can affect the evaluation target point. The “map symbol” is a number uniquely assigned to the active fault and corresponds to the map displayed at the lower right of the screen. “50-year probability (%)” is the probability that an earthquake due to the earthquake or active fault will occur during the evaluation period selected on the screen of FIG. 8, and “M” is the magnitude at that time, “maximum speed” “(Cm / s)” indicates the maximum rate of shaking. “Distance (km)” indicates the distance from the active fault or the like that is the source of the earthquake to the evaluation target point. “A / V” is the ratio of acceleration to velocity, and indicates the habit of earthquake shaking.

  The display screen at the lower right of the screen in FIG. 9 shows an epicenter map of active faults and trench-type earthquakes. This is a map showing the active faults and the subduction zone earthquakes around the target site.

  FIG. 10 is an example of a display screen of “probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation results”. In FIG. 10, the display portion at the upper left of the screen shows a hazard curve. This hazard curve shows the relationship between the seismic intensity (measured seismic intensity) and the excess probability in the target period. In the future, an earthquake exceeding a certain measured seismic intensity will occur during the evaluation period selected on the screen in Fig. 8. The probability of doing is an indication of how much. In addition, the display screen at the upper right of the screen displays “the intensity of earthquake motion with a 50-year excess probability equivalent to 10% and the degree of contribution of major earthquakes”. In the graph shown here, the seismic intensity corresponding to a 50-year excess probability of 10% and the relative ratio (contribution) of earthquakes that are likely to bring about are shown. By referring to this graph, it is possible to obtain information such as the contribution of the “Nankai Trough Great Earthquake” at the evaluation site, followed by “West Lake Biwa”, followed by “East edge of Nara Basin”. Can be understood at a glance. Along with this graph, the behaviors such as the maximum velocity of the ground motion, the measured seismic intensity, and the A / V ratio are also shown.

  Also, the occurrence probability of the maximum seismic intensity is shown in the display part at the lower left of the screen of FIG. More specifically, a graph showing the occurrence probability of the maximum seismic intensity during the target period is shown. This graph refers to the probability that an earthquake with a maximum seismic intensity of “5 strong” will occur in the next 50 years is 45%, and that “less than 6” is 10%.

  The lower right display part of FIG. 10 shows the contribution degree of main earthquakes to each seismic intensity scale. This is a graph showing the contribution of earthquakes that are likely to result in each seismic intensity scale. In this graph, if an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6 or higher occurs, the contribution is mostly due to the “west coast of Lake Biwa”. Can be referred to as being large.

  The map selection button displayed in the display part at the upper right of the screen in FIG. 8 will be described. Clicking on the “hazard”, “amplification factor”, “active fault”, and “seismic” buttons with this map selection button displays the respective maps. These maps are shown in FIGS. 11 to 14, respectively.

When “hazard” is selected with the map selection button, two maps as shown in FIG. 11 are displayed on the screen. Of the two maps, the map on the left is a map with a large scale around the evaluation target point, and the map on the right is a map with a small scale around the evaluation target point. Since two scale maps can be referred to simultaneously on one screen in this way, the situation around the point to be evaluated can be viewed and convenient. The technique of displaying two maps in a scale as described above is also employed in each of the maps of “amplification factor”, “active fault”, and “seismic epicenter”. In the hazard map shown in FIG. 11, earthquakes with a 50-year excess probability of 10% are shown in different colors for each seismic intensity scale. (In the drawings attached to the specification, although it is expressed as shading, it is actually displayed in different colors.)
When “amplification factor” is selected with the map selection button, two maps as shown in FIG. 12 are displayed. The relationship between the two maps is the same as that described for the hazard map. In the amplification factor map, the amplification factor of the maximum speed around the evaluation target point is displayed in different colors according to the amplification factor. (In the drawings attached to the specification, although it is expressed as shading, it is actually displayed in different colors.)
When “active fault” is selected with the map selection button, two maps as shown in FIG. 13 are displayed. The relationship between the two maps is the same as that described for the hazard map. The active fault map shows the distribution of active faults around the evaluation target point.

When “Earthquake” is selected with the map selection button, two maps as shown in FIG. 13 are displayed. The relationship between the two maps is the same as that described for the hazard map. In the epicenter map, the epicenters of past earthquakes are represented in a circle on the map. This circle is colored, and the depth of the epicenter can be expressed according to the color. (In the drawings attached to the specification, although it is expressed as shading, it is actually displayed in different colors.)
Next, a comparison will be shown as to how the evaluation results of the assumed earthquake selection system of the present embodiment differ at two evaluation target points. FIG. 15 shows a probabilistic earthquake hazard evaluation result at a certain evaluation target point, and FIG. 16 shows a probabilistic earthquake hazard evaluation result at a different evaluation target point. In each figure, for example, comparing the “earthquake motion with a 50-year excess probability equivalent to 10% and the contribution level” in the upper right part of the screen, in the graph of the display screen in FIG. In contrast to the fact that it appears as a degree, in the graph of the display screen of FIG. 16, it is possible to grasp at a glance the difference such that a plurality of earthquakes appear as contributions. As described above, in this embodiment, since the earthquake hazard evaluation result relating to the point of interest can be visually viewed, it is very important to develop a seismic design for a building, a disaster prevention plan for a facility, and a business continuity plan. Convenient.

1 is an overall configuration diagram of an assumed earthquake selection system according to an embodiment of the present invention. It is a figure which shows the outline of the memory content of the trench-type earthquake database. It is a figure which shows the outline of the memory content of the active fault origin earthquake database. It is a figure which shows the outline of the memory content of the other earthquake database. It is a figure which shows the outline of the flow of the data processing of the assumption earthquake selection system which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the example of a screen on the display means of the assumption earthquake selection system which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the example of a screen on the display means of the assumption earthquake selection system which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the example of a screen on the display means of the assumption earthquake selection system which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the example of a screen on the display means of the assumption earthquake selection system which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the example of a screen on the display means of the assumption earthquake selection system which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the example of a screen on the display means of the assumption earthquake selection system which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the example of a screen on the display means of the assumption earthquake selection system which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the example of a screen on the display means of the assumption earthquake selection system which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the example of a screen on the display means of the assumption earthquake selection system which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the example of a screen on the display means of the assumption earthquake selection system which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the example of a screen on the display means of the assumption earthquake selection system which concerns on embodiment of this invention.

Explanation of symbols

10 ... System bus, 11 ... CPU, 12 ... RAM, 13 ... ROM, 15 ... Keyboard controller (KBC), 16 ... CRT controller (CRTC), 17 ... External Memory controller (MC), 18 ... Keyboard (KB), 19 ... CRT display (CRT), 20 ..., 21 ... Assumed earthquake selection system program, 22 ... Trench-type earthquake database, 23 ... Active fault-induced earthquake database, 24 ... Other earthquake databases, 25 ... Ground amplification factor database

Claims (4)

In the assumed earthquake selection system that calculates the earthquake hazard evaluation at the target evaluation point,
It has a trench-type earthquake database, active fault-induced earthquake database, other earthquake database, and ground amplification factor database, as well as an evaluation target point information setting field that prompts the user to input location information of the evaluation target point, and information related to the evaluation period. An evaluation period information setting column that prompts the user to input, and a ground amplification factor correction value information setting column that prompts the user to input information related to the correction value of the ground amplification factor, the evaluation target point information setting column, Based on the information input in the evaluation period information setting field, the ground amplification factor correction value information setting field, the trench-type earthquake database, the active fault-induced earthquake database, the other earthquake database, and the ground amplification factor database An assumed earthquake selection system that calculates scenario-type seismic ground motion evaluation results and probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation results. Furthermore, the assumed earthquake selection system of Claim 1 which displays the hazard map, amplification factor map, active fault map, and epicenter map in the evaluation object point to which its attention is paid. The assumed earthquake selection system according to claim 2, wherein the hazard map, the amplification factor map, the active fault map, and the epicenter map are obtained by displaying two kinds of maps in parallel. The assumed earthquake selection system according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein a contribution degree of each earthquake factor is displayed in a graph as the result of the probabilistic earthquake hazard evaluation.

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