JP2007079868A - System and method for managing progress of task - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To reduce the burden of a worker by appropriately managing the progress of a task. <P>SOLUTION: In this system for managing the progress of the task including a plurality of task processes, the self-responsibility probability of the design change of already generated process information with the responsibility of each of a plurality of task processes is recorded in association with each of those task processes. Then, in an upstream process as another task process for directly or indirectly providing process information to one task process, when the design of the process information is changed, the propagation probability of the design change of the process information of one task process due to the design change of the process information is acquired. Then, the probability of the design change of the process information already prepared in the designated task process is calculated based on the self-responsibility probability corresponding to the designated task process, self-responsibility probability corresponding to the upstream process of the designated task process and the propagation probability corresponding to the task process designated from the upstream process. Then, the progress of the task is evaluated based on the calculated probability. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2007,JPO&INPIT

Description

  The present invention relates to a system for managing the progress of business and a method thereof. In particular, the present invention relates to a system for managing the progress of a business including a plurality of business processes, and a method thereof.

  In the product development business of automobiles and other manufacturing industries and IT industries, in order to shorten the development period, workers in each process can transfer the product (for example, part design information) in the middle of development to other products. Share with process workers. FIG. 1 shows a specific example in which a plurality of workers share deliverables in automobile development work. The horizontal direction in this figure indicates the direction of time progression. That is, the product planning process is started first, followed by processes such as exterior / interior styling and structural planning. In the example of this figure, the downstream process of a certain business process is not always started after the completion of the business process. For example, in the figure, the exterior / interior styling process begins before the product plan is completed. At this time, the product of the upstream process is provided to the downstream process in the middle of development.

  Conventionally, in such a business, each worker provides a product to another worker by means of the personal contact means of the worker. For example, the personal contact means is a telephone, a fax, an e-mail, or the like that meets and speaks directly. In addition, each worker determines whether or not his / her work may be started even if the upstream process is not completed based on the intention of the worker. For example, each worker determines the details of the upstream process deliverables and the risk of repetitive work due to future changes in the upstream process deliverables, and starts work. It is judged on a case-by-case basis.

  However, such a judgment greatly depends on the insight and experience of the worker. For this reason, an inexperienced worker may make a mistake in estimation and cause large repetitive work. Further, the product of the upstream process also depends on the product of the upstream process. For this reason, in the case of product development in which an enormous number of parts have a complicated dependency like an automobile, it is difficult for a skilled worker to determine the possibility that the product of the upstream process will be redesigned.

  On the other hand, systems that support business progress management have been proposed (see Non-Patent Documents 1 and 2). Non-Patent Document 2 relates to a type of software called PDM (Product Data Management). Non-Patent Document 1 relates to software called MS Project. In these softwares, the concept of maturity is introduced to the products generated in each work process. Then, the worker of the work process inputs the maturity level of the product in his / her work process to the information processing apparatus. The entered maturity level can be referred to by other workers or project managers.

MS Project (http://www.microsoft.com/office/project/prodinfo/default.mspx) ENOVIA (http://www-6.ibm.com/jp/manufacturing/prod/pdm/enovia/) Terwiesch C. et al: "Exchanging Preliminary Information in Concurrent Engineering: Alternative Coordination Strategies", INFORMS, Vol. 13, No. 4, July-August 2002, pp. 402-419

  However, in the above technique, interpretation of the meaning indicated by maturity is left to each worker. For example, the maturity level can be interpreted as the level of detail (for example, the accuracy of length and weight) indicating how detailed the product is made. On the other hand, the maturity level can also be interpreted as a low possibility (stability: Stability) of redoing work due to a design change (for example, see Non-Patent Document 3). Therefore, the worker in the downstream process has to interpret the meaning of maturity by making an independent judgment or by contacting the worker in the upstream process through personal communication means.

  Furthermore, the possibility of changing the design of the already designed product depends not only on the business process immediately before the business process for generating the product, but also on the business process further upstream of the business process. In the above technique, such dependency relations cannot be handled appropriately. Also, Non-Patent Document 3 does not mention a method of appropriately using the degree of detail and stability.

  Therefore, an object of the present invention is to provide a system, a method, and a program that can solve the above-described problems. This object is achieved by a combination of features described in the independent claims. The dependent claims define further advantageous specific examples of the present invention.

In order to solve the above problems, in the present invention, a system for managing the progress of a business including a plurality of business processes, which is associated with each of the plurality of business processes and is responsible for the business process. A recording unit that records the self-responsibility probability, which is the probability of changing the design of process information that has already been generated in the process, and an upstream process that is another business process that provides process information directly or indirectly to one business process When the process information is redesigned, the acquisition unit that acquires the propagation probability, which is the probability of changing the process information of one business process due to the design change, and the specified business process already created The probability that the process information will be redesigned is determined from the self-responsibility probability corresponding to the designated business process, the self-responsibility probability corresponding to at least one upstream process of the designated business process, and the upstream process A system including a calculation unit that calculates based on a propagation probability for a predetermined business process, an evaluation unit that evaluates the progress of the business based on the calculated probability, and manages the business progress using the system A method and a program thereof are provided.
The above summary of the invention does not enumerate all the necessary features of the present invention, and sub-combinations of these feature groups can also be the invention.

  According to the present invention, it is possible to reduce the burden on the worker more than before by appropriately managing the progress of the work.

  Hereinafter, the present invention will be described through embodiments of the invention. However, the following embodiments do not limit the invention according to the scope of claims, and all combinations of features described in the embodiments are included. It is not necessarily essential for the solution of the invention.

FIG. 2 shows the overall configuration of the information processing system 10. The information processing system 10 includes an administrator terminal 20, user terminals 25-1 to 25 -N, and a business management system 30. The administrator terminal 20 is an information processing apparatus operated by an administrator who manages the entire business. Each of the user terminals 25-1 to 25 -N is provided corresponding to each of a plurality of workers in charge of work, and outputs information to each worker, or from each worker Get the operation. The business management system 30 evaluates the progress status of the entire business based on information input from each worker via the user terminals 25-1 to 25 -N and displays it on the manager terminal 20. Further, the business management system 30 notifies the worker in the downstream process that the downstream process should be started based on information input from a certain worker.
The business management system 30 according to the present embodiment is intended to facilitate the management of the entire business through such processing, and to indicate the timing at which the business should be started and to smoothly proceed with the business.

  FIG. 3 shows a functional configuration of the business management system 30. The business management system 30 includes a recording unit 300, a display unit 310, an update unit 320, an acquisition unit 330, a calculation unit 340, a detection unit 350, a business management unit 360, and an evaluation unit 370. The recording unit 300 records a self-responsibility probability, which is a probability of changing the process information already generated in the business process, with the responsibility of the business process in association with each of the plurality of business processes. That is, for example, the self-responsibility probability is a probability that a part already generated in a certain business process A is redesigned according to the convenience of the business process A and redesigned.

  In addition, when the recording unit 300 changes process information of another business process that directly provides process information to the business process in association with each of the plurality of business processes, the business process is caused by the change. The direct propagation probability, which is the probability of changing the process information, is recorded. That is, for example, the direct propagation probability is a probability that a part that has already been generated in a certain business process A must be changed due to a design change in the business process B that provides process information directly to the business process A. .

  Here, the process information refers to a product obtained as a result of work in a business process. For example, in a business process for designing a part, information such as a design drawing of the part becomes process information. That is, the process information is a set of size data and shape information of each part of the part. For example, a worker in a certain business process passes a file storing these data to other workers as process information. Further, the process information may be a folder including a plurality of files.

  In addition, the recording unit 300 connects a node indicating each of a plurality of business processes and a node indicating a direct upstream process of the business processes with a directed edge indicating a relationship for providing process information between the business processes. The directed acyclic graph generated by doing is recorded. That is, if there is a business process B that provides process information in the business process A, a directed edge from the node indicating the business process B to the node indicating the business process A is recorded.

  The display unit 310 displays a list of a plurality of operations included in the business process in association with the business process on the terminal (for example, the user terminal 25-1) of the worker of the business process. Are displayed in association with check boxes indicating whether or not each of them has been completed. The update unit 320 records, for each business process, a self-responsibility probability of the business process according to the number of check boxes in which the completion of the work is input among a plurality of check boxes corresponding to the business process. Update at. For example, the update unit 320 decreases the self-responsibility of the corresponding business process every time the number of check boxes to which completion is input increases. In other words, in the business process of manufacturing a part, if the design of the part is completed, the probability that the design must be changed decreases, and if the work such as testing and inspection is completed, the design is completed. The probability of having to change is further reduced.

  The acquisition unit 330 is the responsibility of another business process that directly or indirectly provides process information for a certain business process, and is the probability that one process information corresponding to the one business process will be changed. Get the responsibility probability. For example, the acquisition unit 330, when other process information corresponding to the other business process is changed, the propagation probability that is the probability of changing the process information of the one business process due to the change, and the The other responsibility probability is acquired based on another own responsibility probability corresponding to another business process. In the simplest case, the propagation probability is the product of the direct propagation probabilities on the route from the other business process to the one business process.

  The calculation unit 340 calculates a change probability that is a probability of changing the process information already generated in the designated business process. This change probability is calculated based on the self-responsibility probability corresponding to the designated business process and the acquired other responsibility probability. Specifically, the calculation unit 340 may calculate the change probability of each of the plurality of business processes, with each of the plurality of business processes included in the business as the one business process.

  The detection unit 350 selects a critical path that is a path of a business process that is dominant at a time of completion of a business among paths that reach a final business process by sequentially selecting a downstream process in order from a business process that is started first. To detect. The business management unit 360 records information related to deadline management of each business process for each of the plurality of business processes. The detection unit 350 may detect a critical path based on information recorded in the task management unit 360. The evaluation unit 370 evaluates the business progress based on the probability calculated by the calculation unit 340. For example, the evaluation unit 370 may evaluate the change probability calculated by the calculation unit 340 for each of a plurality of business processes included in the business as the progress status of the entire business. As an example, the evaluation unit 370 may evaluate a statistic such as an average value of change probabilities in each business process as a progress status of the entire business. Further, the evaluation unit 370 may evaluate a statistic such as an average value of change probabilities calculated for each business process on the critical path as the progress status.

  FIG. 4 is a conceptual diagram of the dependency relationship between the business processes recorded by the recording unit 300. The recording unit 300 records a directed acyclic graph in which each of a plurality of business processes is a node, and the relationship of providing process information between the business processes is indicated as a directed edge. That is, the business process A has a relationship of directly providing the process information to the business process C and the business process D. Further, the business process B has a relationship of directly providing the process information to the business process D. Further, each of the business process C and the business process D has a relationship of directly providing process information to the business process E. Further, the business process E is in a relationship in which the process information is indirectly provided from each of the business process A and the business process B.

  Here, the plurality of business processes include a plurality of business processes in which the process of designing the same design object is classified according to the degree of detail indicating the details of the contents for designing the design object. For example, a plurality of business processes mentioned here include a business process for designing a part to have an accuracy of ± 1 cm and a business process for designing the part to have an accuracy of ± 5 mm. Any of these may be included. By subdividing the business process in this way, it is possible to prevent a dependency relationship circulating between the business processes from occurring.

  The recording unit 300 further records the self-responsibility of the business process in association with each of the multiple business processes (that is, a node). For example, the self-responsibility of business process C is q (C). In this figure, for the sake of explanation, the self-responsibility is shown by a function having a symbol X indicating a business process as an input, such as q (X), but the recording unit 300 actually has a probability of 80% or 25%. The value is recorded.

  In addition, when the recording unit 300 changes process information of another business process that directly provides process information to the business process in association with each of the plurality of business processes, the business process is caused by the change. The direct propagation probability, which is the probability of changing the process information, is recorded. For example, the probability of changing the process information of the business process E due to the change of the process information in the business process C is d (C, E).

  FIG. 5 shows a data structure of data recorded by the business management unit 360. The business management unit 360 records information related to deadline management of each business process for each of the plurality of business processes. Specifically, for each business process, the business management unit 360 determines in advance the identification information (ID), a standard period that is a standard period for completing the business process, and the business process. Recorded margin period. The margin period of a certain business process is a period provided in advance for the purpose of continuously executing the business process when the business in the business process is delayed.

  Further, the business management unit 360 acquires the start time and end time of the business process based on the input from the operator of each business process. Then, the business management unit 360 calculates and records an elapsed period from the start of each business process to the present based on the start time. In addition, the business management unit 360 calculates an excess period that is a period in which the work period of each business process exceeds the reference period, and calculates and records an excess ratio that is a ratio of the excess period to the margin period. ing. As a result, a business process that is delayed from the plan can be made a target of progress management in preference to other business processes.

  For example, for the business process whose ID is 1351, the reference period is 16 days, the margin period is 2 days, and the elapsed period is 17 days. Therefore, the excess period is one day, and the ratio of the excess period to the margin period is 50%. On the other hand, for the business process with ID 2015, the reference period is 26 days, the margin period is 3 days, and the elapsed period is 28 days. Therefore, the excess period is 2 days, and the ratio of the excess period to the margin period is 66%.

  The detection unit 350 may detect a critical path based on the excess ratio shown in the drawing. Specifically, the detecting unit 350 determines in advance the excess ratio corresponding to each business process on the route among the routes reaching the final business process by sequentially selecting the downstream process of each business process. A route larger than the determined reference value may be detected as a critical path. For example, if the reference value is 30%, the detection unit 350 may detect a path that reaches the final business process as a critical path by selecting only a business process whose excess ratio is greater than 30%. . Instead, the detection unit 350 may detect a path having the largest statistical amount such as the sum or average of the excess ratios in each business process as a critical path. As a result, a business process that is delayed from the plan can be made a target of progress management in preference to other business processes.

  Further, the business management unit 360 may further record the man-hours necessary for completing the process information of the business process in association with each of the plurality of business processes. In this case, the detection unit 350 may detect a critical path based on this man-hour. Specifically, the detection unit 350 sequentially selects the downstream process of each business process, and among the paths reaching the final business process, the total or average of the man-hours of each business process included in the path is the largest. The route may be detected as a critical path. More preferably, for the business process that has already started, the detection unit 350 is based on the expected value of the additional work man-hour calculated as the product of the probability of changing the process information corresponding to the work process and the man-hour corresponding to the business process. For business processes that have not yet been started, a critical path may be detected based on the corresponding man-hours. As a result, it is possible to detect an appropriate critical path even before the business starts or during the business in progress.

  FIG. 6 shows a process flow of the process in which the business management system 30 updates the self-responsibility probability. FIG. 7 shows a specific example of a work list displayed by the display unit 310. The business management system 30 performs the following processing in response to a user request or periodically. First, the display unit 310 associates a list of a plurality of operations included in the business process with at least one business process and a check box indicating whether each of the plurality of operations is completed. indicate.

  For example, as illustrated in FIG. 7, the display unit 310 displays a plurality of operations included in the business process A for each item in association with the business process A. The items include not only substantial design work such as outline design, detailed design, or drawing, but also test work such as A test, B test, or comprehensive test. The work item includes administrative work such as manager approval. The display unit 310 displays a list of such operations for each business process.

  The updating unit 320 determines whether or not the input to the check box has been updated or completed (S610). For example, the updating unit 320 may determine that the input has been updated or completed depending on whether or not a “check completed” button illustrated in FIG. 7 has been clicked. The updating unit 320 calculates the self-responsibility of the business process according to the states of the plurality of check boxes (S620). For example, the updating unit 320 calculates a self-responsibility of the business process according to the number of check boxes in which the completion of work is input among these check boxes. In FIG. 7, among the seven tasks displayed in the list, there are three tasks that are input to the check box: “overview design”, “detailed design”, and “drawing”, and the other four There is no input for the check box for the work. Therefore, the update unit 320 calculates 4/7 (about 57%) as the own responsibility probability. The updating unit 320 updates the recording unit 300 with the calculated self-responsibility (S630). The update unit 320 repeats the above processing for each business process. Also, the self-responsibility probability may be calculated by weighting the check box items.

  FIG. 8 shows a processing flow of a process for managing the progress of the business based on the process information change probability in each business process. The processing of this figure is aimed at, for example, evaluating and displaying the progress status of the business, the risk that the business currently has, and the like for the manager who manages the entire business. First, the detection unit 350 is a path of a business process that is dominant in the completion time of the entire business among paths that reach the final business process by sequentially selecting a downstream process in order from the first started business process. A critical path is detected (S800).

  Next, the calculation unit 340 calculates, for each of the plurality of business processes included in the business, a change probability that is a probability of changing the process information already generated in the business process (S810). Details of the method for calculating the change probability will be described later. Then, the evaluation unit 370 evaluates the progress status of the critical path based on the change probability calculated for each business process on the critical path (S820). For example, for each business process on the critical path, the evaluation unit 370 calculates the product of the probability of changing the process information corresponding to the business process already started and the man-hour corresponding to the business process. The progress status may be evaluated by setting the expected value of the additional work man-hours as the remaining man-hours on the critical path by summing up the man-hours corresponding to the work processes not yet started. Instead, the evaluation unit 370 may evaluate an additional process generated by changing the process information in a certain business process. Evaluation of the additional process will be described with reference to FIG.

  FIG. 9 shows the details of the processing in S810. The calculation unit 340 prepares a flag indicating whether or not the change probability of the node has already been obtained in association with all the nodes of the directed acyclic graph indicating the dependency relationship between the business processes. Hereinafter, obtaining the change probability is referred to as “visit”, and this flag is referred to as a visited flag. First, the calculation unit 340 resets the visited flags of all nodes (S900). Next, the calculation unit 340 repeats the following process for each node (S910).

  First, the calculation unit 340 determines whether or not the visited flag of the node is already set (S920). On the condition that it is not set, the calculation unit 340 calculates the change probability of this node (S930). The calculation unit 340 repeats this calculation process (S940).

  FIG. 10 shows details of the processing in S930. The calculation unit 340 includes a parent node (referred to as a parent node of the node A when there is an edge from the node A to the node B) of a node (hereinafter referred to as a target node) for which a change probability is calculated. The following processing is repeated for each (S1000). First, the calculation unit 340 determines whether or not the visited flag of the parent node is set (S1010). On the condition that it is not set (S1010: NO), the calculation unit 340 calculates the change probability of the parent node (S1020). This calculation process is realized by recursively executing S930. The calculation unit 340 repeats the above calculation process for each parent node (S1030).

  Next, the calculation unit 340 detects all ancestor nodes that are nodes located upstream from the target node (S1040). For example, the calculation unit 340 detects all nodes selected by sequentially tracing the directed acyclic graph from the target node as ancestor nodes. Next, the acquisition unit 330 acquires the propagation probability from each detected ancestor node to the target node (S1050). Specifically, the acquisition unit 330 transmits the propagation probability from a certain ancestor node to the target node, and the direct propagation corresponding to each directed edge on the route going back from the target node to the ancestor node in the directed acyclic graph. Get based on probability.

ここで、Ｚは祖先ノードを、Ｘは対象ノードを示す。また、Ｐａｒｅｎｔ［Ｘ］は、対象ノードの親ノードの集合を示す。また、Ａｎｃｅｓｔｏｒ［Ｙ］は、親ノードＹの祖先ノード集合を示す。ｄ（Ｙ，Ｘ）は、親ノードＹから対象ノードＸに対する直接伝播確率であり、これは、記録部３００に予め記録されている。ｒ（Ｚ，Ｙ）は、祖先ノードＺから親ノードＹに対する伝播確率であり、これは、その親ノードＹの変更確率を算出する処理において既に算出されている。なお、Ｓ１０００からＳ１０３０までの処理によって、全ての親ノードの変更確率が既に算出されていることが保証されている。 The calculation formula for acquiring the propagation probability is expressed as follows, for example.

Here, Z indicates an ancestor node, and X indicates a target node. Parent [X] indicates a set of parent nodes of the target node. Ancestor [Y] indicates an ancestor node set of the parent node Y. d (Y, X) is a direct propagation probability from the parent node Y to the target node X, and is recorded in the recording unit 300 in advance. r (Z, Y) is a propagation probability from the ancestor node Z to the parent node Y, and this has already been calculated in the process of calculating the change probability of the parent node Y. Note that it is guaranteed that the change probabilities of all parent nodes have already been calculated by the processing from S1000 to S1030.

  Π is an operator for calculating the product of the expressions described subsequently. That is, what is obtained by the following equation is the probability that even if the process information is changed in a certain ancestor node, the influence of the change is not propagated in any path from the ancestor node to the target node. By subtracting this from 1, the probability of changing the process information of the target node when the process information is changed in the ancestor node (that is, the propagation probability) is obtained.

  Subsequently, the acquisition unit 330 temporarily records the propagation probability acquired by the above processing in the storage device in order to calculate the propagation probability in the downstream node (S1060). Next, the acquisition unit 330 acquires the other responsibility probability, and the calculation unit 340 calculates the change probability based thereon (S1070). Specifically, the acquisition unit 330 sets the other responsibility probability corresponding to each of the plurality of upstream nodes indicating the upstream process of the target node, the propagation probability acquired for the upstream node, and the self-responsibility probability corresponding to the upstream node. Get based on. The change probability is calculated based on the other responsibility probability acquired for each node on the path going back from the target node in the directed acyclic graph. Specifically, for example, it is calculated by the following equation (2).

ここで、ｑ（Ｘ）は、対象ノードＸの自責確率を示し、これは、記録部３００に予め記録され、チェックボックスに対する入力などによって更新される。また、ｐ（Ｚ）は、祖先ノードＺの変更確率を示す。Ｓ１０００からＳ１０３０までの処理によって、全ての祖先ノードの変更確率が既に算出されていることが保証されている。その他の項の意味は、式（１）と同様である。

Here, q (X) indicates a self-responsibility probability of the target node X, which is recorded in advance in the recording unit 300 and updated by an input to a check box or the like. P (Z) represents the change probability of the ancestor node Z. By the processing from S1000 to S1030, it is guaranteed that the change probabilities of all ancestor nodes have already been calculated. The meanings of the other terms are the same as in formula (1).

  Π What is calculated by the following formula is the probability that, even if the process information is changed in any ancestor node, the process information in the target node is not required to be changed due to the change. Further, (1-q (X)) indicates a probability that the process information of the business process is not required to be changed depending on the responsibility of the business process indicated by the target node X. That is, according to the following formula (1-q (X)), the probability that the process information does not need to be changed in the target node X is obtained. By subtracting this from 1, the change probability of the target node X can be calculated.

  The calculation unit 340 temporarily records the change probability calculated for the target node in the storage device in order to calculate the change probability in the downstream node (S1075). Then, the calculation unit 340 sets a visited flag for the target node X (S1080).

  FIG. 11 is a diagram illustrating a state in which the change probability in a certain business process is calculated based on the change probability in the upstream process. The calculation unit 340 converts the change probability p (E) of the target node E into the own responsibility probability q (E) of the node E, the propagation probability from each ancestor node to the target node E, and the change probability of each ancestor node. Calculate based on Here, the propagation probability is that the process information of the target node is changed directly because the process information of the ancestor node is directly changed when the ancestor node is a process upstream of the target node. It is a direct propagation probability indicating the probability of On the other hand, if the ancestor node is a multi-stage upstream process with respect to the target node, the propagation probability indicates that the process information of the target node is changed indirectly due to a change in the process information of the ancestor node. This is an indirect propagation probability indicating the probability of

  For the ancestor node A, the calculation unit 340 calculates a propagation probability r (A, E) from the ancestor node A to the target node E. The propagation probability is a probability that the process information change in the ancestor node A propagates to the node E via either the node C or the node D. Then, the calculation unit 340 calculates a probability obtained by multiplying the propagation probability by the change probability p (A) of the ancestor node A as a probability of changing the process information of the node E by changing the process information of the ancestor node A. To do.

  Further, the calculation unit 340 calculates the propagation probability r (B, E) from the ancestor node B to the target node E for the ancestor node B. The propagation probability is a product of the propagation probability r (B, D) from the node B to the node D and the direct propagation probability d (D, E) from the node D to the node E. Then, the calculation unit 340 calculates the probability of multiplying the propagation probability by the change probability p (B) of the ancestor node B as the probability of changing the process information of the node E by changing the process information of the ancestor node B. To do.

  Further, the calculation unit 340 calculates the probability of changing the process information of the node E by changing the process information of the ancestor node C. This probability is the product of the direct propagation probability from the ancestor node D to the node E and the self-responsibility probability of the ancestor node D. Similarly, the calculation unit 340 calculates the probability of changing the process information of the node E by changing the process information of the ancestor node D. This probability is a product of the direct propagation probability from the ancestor node C to the node E and the self-responsibility probability of the ancestor node C.

With the above calculation, the rightmost term of Equation (2) is calculated. By substituting these into equation (2), the change probability of the target node E can be calculated.
As described above with reference to FIGS. 10 and 11, the calculation unit 340 determines the probability that the designated business process changes the process information as a direct upstream indicated as the parent node of the business process in the directed acyclic graph. The process is sequentially recursively calculated based on the probability that the process changes the process information. Furthermore, by using the visited flag, it is possible to omit the calculation processing with overlapping propagation probabilities and change probabilities, and to improve the processing efficiency.

  FIG. 12 is a conceptual diagram of processing for obtaining additional man-hours generated in a downstream process when certain process information is changed. The evaluation unit 370 may evaluate an additional process generated by changing the process information in the business process on the critical path as an example of the process of evaluating the progress. Specifically, first, the evaluation unit 370 causes the user to specify process information that is a candidate to be changed.

  In the example of this figure, a candidate business process whose process information is to be changed is a business process A. In this example, the self-responsibility probability is defined as the ratio of the incomplete work amount to the total work amount in the business process. Therefore, since 80% of the work of the business process A is now completed, the self-responsibility of the business process A is 20%. Further, since 40% of the work is completed in the business process B which is a downstream process of the business process, the self-responsibility of the business process B is 60%. Further, since 20% of the work is completed in the business process C further downstream of the business process B, the self-responsibility of the business process C is 80%.

  Further, as described in S810 above, the acquisition unit 330 acquires the propagation probability between each business process and another business process. Now, let P1 be the probability of propagation from business process A to business process B. Further, the propagation probability from the business process A to the business process C is P2. That is, the probability of changing the process information of the business process B by the responsibility of the business process A is the product of the self-responsibility 20% of the business process A and the propagation probability P1 (P1 × 0.2). Therefore, the change probability of the business process B is 1- (1-0.6) × (1-P1 × 0.2). The probability of changing the process information of the business process C by the responsibility of the business process A is the product of the self-responsibility 20% of the business process A and the propagation probability P2 (P2 × 0.2). Therefore, the change probability of the business process C is 1- (1-0.8) × (1-P2 × 0.2).

  Then, when the candidate process information to be changed is designated, the calculation unit 340 increases the self-responsibility corresponding to the designated business process that generates the process information to 1, and each other An increase range in which the probability of changing the process information of the business process increases is calculated. In the example of this figure, as a result of increasing the self-responsibility corresponding to the business process A to 1, the probability of changing the process information of the business process B by the responsibility of the business process A increases to P1 × 1. Therefore, the change probability of the business process B is 1- (1-0.6) × (1-P1), and the increase rate of the change probability is 0.32 × P1. In addition, the probability of changing the process information of the business process C on the responsibility of the business process A increases to P1 × 1. Therefore, the change probability of the business process C is 1- (1-0.8) × (1-P2), and the increase rate of the change probability is 0.16 × P2.

  Subsequently, the evaluation unit 370 calculates the product of the increase amount calculated by the calculation unit 340 for each business process and the man-hour recorded in association with the business process. In the example of this figure, the man-hour of business process B is 10, and the man-hour of business process C is 20. Therefore, the evaluation unit 370 calculates, for the business process B, 3.2 × P1 obtained by multiplying 0.32 × P1 that is the increase width and the man-hour 10. Further, the evaluation unit 370 calculates 3.2 × P2 for the business process C by multiplying 0.16 × P2 that is the increase width and the man-hour 20.

  And the evaluation part 370 evaluates the total man-hour required by changing the business process A based on the value which totaled these products about several business processes. For example, the evaluation unit 370 may evaluate the total of 3.2 × P1 and 3.2 × P2 as an additional man-hour. This additional man-hour is an expected value of the man-hour that is additionally required when the process information of the business process A is changed at the present time. Thereby, the man-hour required in addition from the time of a change can be evaluated by changing process information.

  Instead of this, the evaluation unit 370 may calculate the product of the increase amount calculated by the calculation unit 340 for each business process and the man-hour of the work already performed in the business process. That is, for example, since the man-hour of the work already performed in the business process B is 4, the evaluation unit 370 may calculate 1.28 × P1 obtained by multiplying 0.32 × P1 by the man-hour 4. Similarly, since the man-hour of the work already performed in the business process C is 4, the evaluation unit 370 may calculate 0.64 × P2 obtained by multiplying 0.16 × P2 by the man-hour 4.

  In this case, the evaluation unit 370 evaluates the total man-hours required by changing the business process A based on a value obtained by adding these products for a plurality of business processes. For example, the evaluation unit 370 may evaluate the total of 1.28 × P1 and 0.64 × P2 as an additional man-hour. This additional man-hour indicates the total man-hour required for the entire business when the process information of the business process A is changed. This makes it possible to appropriately evaluate the amount of work that increases as a whole operation due to the change of process information.

  FIG. 13 shows a process flow of a process for notifying the start of work in the downstream process based on the process information change probability in each business process. The processing in this figure is intended to assist the worker in the downstream process. For example, even if the upstream process information is not completed, whether or not the downstream process may be started in advance. The purpose is to support such judgment.

  First, the calculation unit 340 calculates, for each of a plurality of business processes included in a business, a change probability that is a probability of changing the process information already generated in the business process (S1300). Since this process is substantially the same as S810 in FIG. Next, the evaluation unit 370 repeats the following processing for each business process (S1310).

  The evaluation unit 370 determines whether or not the change probability calculated by the calculation unit 340 for the business process is lower than a predetermined reference value (S1320). On the condition that the change probability is lower than the reference value, the evaluation unit 370 starts the downstream process regardless of whether or not the business process is completed, to the person in charge of the downstream process of the business process (S1330). This notification may be notified when the change probability is less than the reference value for any upstream process, or may be notified when the change probability is less than the reference value for only any upstream process.

  Moreover, this reference value may differ for every process. For example, for a certain business process, the reference value may be 30% for an upstream process that provides process information directly to the business process, and the reference value may be 50% for other upstream processes. That is, for example, in S1320, the evaluation unit 370 compares the probability that process information is changed in an upstream process of a certain business process with a predetermined first reference value, and one of the one business process. The probability of changing the process information may be compared with a predetermined second reference value.

In this case, the change probability of the first business process is lower than the first reference value, the change probability of the second business process is lower than the second reference value, and the second reference value is the first reference value. On condition that it is lower than the reference value of 1, the evaluation unit 370 notifies the workers of those downstream processes of the start of the business process. This makes it possible to tighten the evaluation criteria for upstream processes that are expected to have a large impact, relax the evaluation criteria for upstream processes that are expected to have a small impact, and appropriately determine the timing of notification. it can.
The business management system 30 repeats the above processing for each business process (S1340).

  FIG. 14 shows an example of the hardware configuration of the information processing apparatus 500 that functions as the business management system 30. The information processing apparatus 500 includes a CPU peripheral unit including a CPU 1000, a RAM 1020, and a graphic controller 1075 connected to each other by a host controller 1082, a communication interface 1030, a hard disk drive 1040, and the like connected to the host controller 1082 by an input / output controller 1084. And an input / output unit having a CD-ROM drive 1060, and a legacy input / output unit having a BIOS 1010, a flexible disk drive 1050, and an input / output chip 1070 connected to the input / output controller 1084.

  The host controller 1082 connects the RAM 1020 to the CPU 1000 and the graphic controller 1075 that access the RAM 1020 at a high transfer rate. The CPU 1000 operates based on programs stored in the BIOS 1010 and the RAM 1020 and controls each unit. The graphic controller 1075 acquires image data generated by the CPU 1000 or the like on a frame buffer provided in the RAM 1020 and displays it on the display device 1080. Alternatively, the graphic controller 1075 may include a frame buffer that stores image data generated by the CPU 1000 or the like.

  The input / output controller 1084 connects the host controller 1082 to the communication interface 1030, the hard disk drive 1040, and the CD-ROM drive 1060, which are relatively high-speed input / output devices. The communication interface 1030 communicates with an external device via a network. The hard disk drive 1040 stores programs and data used by the information processing apparatus 500. The CD-ROM drive 1060 reads a program or data from the CD-ROM 1095 and provides it to the RAM 1020 or the hard disk drive 1040.

  The input / output controller 1084 is connected to the BIOS 1010 and relatively low-speed input / output devices such as the flexible disk drive 1050 and the input / output chip 1070. The BIOS 1010 stores a boot program executed by the CPU 1000 when the information processing apparatus 500 is activated, a program depending on the hardware of the information processing apparatus 500, and the like. The flexible disk drive 1050 reads a program or data from the flexible disk 1090 and provides it to the RAM 1020 or the hard disk drive 1040 via the input / output chip 1070. The input / output chip 1070 connects various input / output devices via a flexible disk 1090 and, for example, a parallel port, a serial port, a keyboard port, a mouse port, and the like.

  A program provided to the information processing apparatus 500 is stored in a recording medium such as the flexible disk 1090, the CD-ROM 1095, or an IC card and provided by a user. The program is read from the recording medium via the input / output chip 1070 and / or the input / output controller 1084, installed in the information processing apparatus 500, and executed. The operation that the program causes the information processing apparatus 500 to perform is the same as the operation in the business management system 30 described with reference to FIGS.

  The program shown above may be stored in an external storage medium. As the storage medium, in addition to the flexible disk 1090 and the CD-ROM 1095, an optical recording medium such as a DVD or PD, a magneto-optical recording medium such as an MD, a tape medium, a semiconductor memory such as an IC card, or the like can be used. Further, a storage device such as a hard disk or a RAM provided in a server system connected to a dedicated communication network or the Internet may be used as a recording medium, and the program may be provided to the information processing apparatus 500 via the network.

  As described above, according to the business management system 30 according to the present embodiment, it is possible to accurately evaluate the probability that a design change occurs in each business process, and use it for progress management of the entire business. Furthermore, it is possible to appropriately determine whether each business process may start a business without waiting for the completion of the upstream process based on the probability that a design change will occur later, and notify the operator. As a result, the possibility of additional man-hours can be reduced, or the overall work can be made more efficient after recognizing the risk of additional man-hours.

  Thereby, the following services are realized. The business process to be managed in this service is a process of designing automobile parts. In this service, the process information is part design information. First, the person in charge of the service investigates the self-responsibility and / or propagation probability by interviewing the employee in charge of the business process. The propagation probability is typically a direct propagation probability, but may be an indirect propagation probability. In addition, the other responsibility probability may be investigated instead of the propagation probability. Next, the person in charge implements at least one of a plurality of functions in the business management system 30.

  These multiple functions are a function that accepts input of process information corresponding to each business process, and a probability that one process information corresponding to one business process is changed by the responsibility of that one business process. The function to record the self-responsibility and the responsibility of other business processes that provide process information directly or indirectly to one business process, and obtains the other responsibility probability, which is the probability that the one process information will be changed. A function and a function of calculating the probability that the one piece of process information is changed based on the one self-responsibility probability and the other responsibility probability. The person in charge may implement only those functions that are not already implemented in the business management system 30 among these functions.

  Further, the person in charge may store the self-responsibility and / or propagation probability found by the investigation in the business management system 30 prior to the implementation of the above function or after the implementation. Furthermore, the person in charge may modify at least a part of these implemented functions in response to a car model change. Specifically, the above self-responsibility probability and / or other responsibility probability may be corrected. This makes it possible to efficiently manage the progress of a new model and effectively support the improvement of operational efficiency, even when vehicles are being remodeled one after another, referring to the process flow of the previous model. .

  As mentioned above, although this invention was demonstrated using embodiment, the technical scope of this invention is not limited to the range as described in the said embodiment. It will be apparent to those skilled in the art that various modifications or improvements can be added to the above-described embodiment. It is apparent from the scope of the claims that the embodiments added with such changes or improvements can be included in the technical scope of the present invention.

FIG. 1 shows a specific example in which a plurality of workers share deliverables in automobile development work. FIG. 2 shows the overall configuration of the information processing system 10. FIG. 3 shows a functional configuration of the business management system 30. FIG. 4 is a conceptual diagram of the dependency relationship between the business processes recorded by the recording unit 300. FIG. 5 shows a data structure of data recorded by the business management unit 360. FIG. 6 shows a process flow of the process in which the business management system 30 updates the self-responsibility probability. FIG. 7 shows a specific example of a work list displayed by the display unit 310. FIG. 8 shows a processing flow of a process for managing the progress of the business based on the process information change probability in each business process. FIG. 9 shows the details of the processing in S810. FIG. 10 shows details of the processing in S930. FIG. 11 is a diagram illustrating a situation in which change probabilities in each business process are sequentially calculated. FIG. 12 is a conceptual diagram of processing for obtaining additional man-hours generated in a downstream process when certain process information is changed. FIG. 13 shows a process flow of a process for notifying the start of work in the downstream process based on the process information change probability in each business process. FIG. 14 shows an example of the hardware configuration of the information processing apparatus 500 that functions as the business management system 30.

Explanation of symbols

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 10 Information processing system 20 Manager terminal 25 User terminal 30 Business management system 300 Recording part 310 Display part 320 Update part 330 Acquisition part 340 Calculation part 350 Detection part 360 Business management part 370 Evaluation part 500 Information processing apparatus

Claims (24)

A system for managing the progress of work including multiple work processes,
One process information corresponding to one business process records a self-responsibility probability that is a probability that the process information is changed by the responsibility of the one business process, and
An acquisition unit for acquiring a responsibility for other responsibility, which is a probability of changing the one process information, in a responsibility of another business process that provides process information directly or indirectly to one business process;
A system comprising: a calculation unit that calculates a probability that the one process information is changed based on the one self-responsibility probability and the other responsibility probability. The recording unit records a self-responsibility probability, which is a probability of changing the process information generated in the business process, with the responsibility of the business process in association with each of the plurality of business processes,
The acquisition unit, when other process information corresponding to the other business process is changed, the propagation probability that is the probability of changing the one process information due to the change, and the other business process The system according to claim 1, wherein the other responsibility probability is acquired based on the corresponding other responsibility responsibility.   When the other business process is a process upstream by one stage with respect to the one business process, the propagation probability is changed in the one process information directly due to a change in the other process information. The system according to claim 2, which is a direct propagation probability indicating a probability of   When the other business process is a multi-stage upstream process with respect to the one business process, the propagation probability is that the one process information is changed indirectly due to a change in the other process information. The system according to claim 2, wherein the system is an indirect propagation probability indicating a probability of   The system according to claim 1, further comprising an evaluation unit that evaluates a progress status of the task based on the probability calculated by the calculation unit. Other business processes that receive the provision of one process information directly or indirectly from the one business process as downstream processes,
The evaluation unit, on the condition that the calculated probability is lower than a predetermined reference value, the worker of the downstream process, regardless of whether the one business process is completed or not The system according to claim 5, which notifies that a downstream process is started. Other business processes that provide other process information directly or indirectly to the one business process as an upstream process, and other business that receives the provision of one process information directly or indirectly from the one business process As a downstream process,
The evaluation unit has a second probability that the probability of changing the process information of the upstream process is lower than a predetermined first reference value, and the probability of changing one process information of one business process is predetermined. The operator is notified that the downstream process is to be started on the condition that the second reference value is lower than a reference value and the second reference value is lower than the first reference value. 5. The system according to 5. The calculation unit calculates each of the plurality of business processes as the one business process, and calculates a probability of changing process information in each of the plurality of business processes,
The system according to claim 7, wherein the evaluation unit evaluates the probability calculated for each of the plurality of business processes as a progress status of the entire business. A detection unit for detecting a critical path that is a path of a business process that is dominant at the completion time of the business among paths that reach a final business process by sequentially selecting a downstream process in order from the first business process; Prepared,
The system according to claim 7, wherein the evaluation unit evaluates the progress status of the critical path based on the probability calculated by the calculation unit for each business process on the critical path. For each of the plurality of business processes, an excess ratio that is a ratio of a period in which the work period of the business process exceeds a predetermined reference period with respect to a predetermined margin period corresponding to the business process. It also has a recorded business management department,
The detection unit is a standard in which the excess ratio corresponding to each business process on the route among the routes reaching the final business process by sequentially selecting the downstream process of each of the business processes is determined in advance. The system according to claim 9, wherein a route larger than a value is detected as the critical path. The recording unit further records the man-hours necessary for completing the process information of the business process in association with each of the plurality of business processes,
The detection unit sequentially selects a downstream process of each of the business processes, and among the paths reaching the final business process, the excess ratio corresponding to the business process that has already been started, and has not yet started. The system according to claim 10, wherein the critical path is detected based on the man-hour corresponding to a business process. For each of the plurality of business processes, further records the man-hours necessary for completing the process information of the business processes,
The detection unit sequentially selects a downstream process of each of the business processes to sequentially change the process information corresponding to the business process that has already been started from the path to reach the final business process and the business process. The system according to claim 9, wherein the critical path is detected based on an expected value of additional work man-hours calculated as a product of the corresponding man-hours and the man-hours corresponding to business processes that have not yet started. The plurality of business processes include a plurality of business processes classified by the degree of detail indicating the details of the contents to design the design object, the process of designing the same design object,
The recording unit is
In association with each of the plurality of business processes, when changing process information of another business process that directly provides process information to the business process, the process information of the business process is changed due to the change. The probability of direct propagation, which is a probability, is further recorded, and
Directed generated by connecting a node indicating each of the plurality of business processes and a node indicating an upstream process of the business processes with a directed edge indicating a relationship for providing process information between the business processes. Records an acyclic graph,
The acquisition unit, for each of a plurality of upstream processes on a path that traces the directed acyclic graph from the one business process, calculates the propagation probability from the upstream process to the one business process, as the directed acyclic process. A graph is acquired based on the direct propagation probability corresponding to each directed edge on the path going back from the one business process to the upstream process, and
The system according to claim 2, wherein the other responsibility probability corresponding to each of the plurality of upstream processes is acquired based on the propagation probability acquired for the upstream process and the self-responsibility probability corresponding to the upstream process. The calculation unit recursively determines a probability that the one process information is changed based on a probability that a direct upstream process indicated as a parent node of the one business process in the directed acyclic graph changes the process information. The system according to claim 13, which is calculated sequentially. A display unit that displays a list of a plurality of operations included in the business process in association with at least one of the business processes in association with a check box indicating whether each of the plurality of operations is completed;
2. The system according to claim 1, further comprising: an updating unit that updates, for each of the business processes, a self-responsibility of the business process in the recording unit according to a plurality of check box states corresponding to the business process. In correspondence with each of the plurality of business processes, further comprising a business management unit that further records the man-hours necessary to complete the process information of the business process,
In the case where the calculation unit increases the self-responsibility corresponding to the business process for generating the designated process information to 1 in response to designation of candidate process information to be changed, each of the other business processes Calculate the rate of increase in the probability of changing the process information of
The evaluation unit designates the product of the increase calculated by the calculation unit for each business process and the man-hour recorded in association with the business process, based on the total value for the plurality of business processes. The system according to claim 5, wherein the total man-hour required is evaluated by changing the processed process information. A method for managing the progress of the work by a system for managing the progress of the work including a plurality of work processes,
The system has a recording unit that records one self-responsibility probability, which is a probability that one process information corresponding to one business process is changed by the responsibility of the one business process,
Obtaining the other responsibility probability, which is the probability that the one process information is changed, in the responsibility of another business process that provides process information directly or indirectly to one business process;
Calculating a probability that the one process information is changed based on the one self-responsibility probability and the other responsibility probability. For systems that manage work that includes multiple work processes,
A function to accept input of process information corresponding to each business process;
A function of recording one self-responsibility probability, which is a probability that one process information corresponding to one business process is changed by the responsibility of the one business process;
A function for acquiring a probability of other responsibility, which is a probability that the one process information is changed, in a responsibility of another business process that directly or indirectly provides process information for one business process;
The method including the step of implementing at least one function among the functions of calculating the probability that the one process information is changed based on the one responsibility responsibility and the other responsibility probability. In the implementing step,
A function to accept input of process information corresponding to each business process;
A function of recording one self-responsibility probability, which is a probability that one process information corresponding to one business process is changed by the responsibility of the one business process;
A function for acquiring a probability of other responsibility, which is a probability that the one process information is changed, in a responsibility of another business process that directly or indirectly provides process information for one business process;
19. The function according to claim 18, wherein only a function not already implemented in the system is implemented among functions for calculating the probability that the one process information is changed based on the one responsibility responsibility and the other responsibility probability. Method. Prior to the implementing step,
Investigating the propagation probability for calculating the self-responsibility and / or other-responsibility probability;
The method according to claim 18, further comprising: storing in the system the self-responsibility and / or propagation probability found by investigation.   21. The method of claim 20, wherein the investigating includes interviewing employees in charge of the business process. The business process is a process of designing automobile parts,
The process information is design information of the part,
After the implementing step,
The method of claim 18, comprising modifying at least some of the implemented functions in response to a model change of the vehicle.   23. The method of claim 22, wherein the modifying step comprises modifying the self-responsibility and / or other responsibility probability. A program for managing the progress of a business including a plurality of business processes by an information processing device,
The information processing apparatus;
One process information corresponding to one business process records a self-responsibility probability that is a probability that the process information is changed by the responsibility of the one business process, and
An acquisition unit for acquiring a responsibility for other responsibility, which is a probability of changing the one process information, in a responsibility of another business process that provides process information directly or indirectly to one business process;
A program that causes a probability that the one process information is changed to function as a calculation unit that calculates the probability of one responsibility and the other responsibility probability.

Images