JP2006323569A - Disaster prevention/evacuation action simulation system - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide an useful disaster prevention/evacuation action simulation system capable of calculating a flood analysis and river channel water level estimation at real time by using rivers information, dynamically displaying flooding assumption areas for respective bank collapse points and respective time series, sampling the most suitable route on the basis of estimated results of a flooding phenomenon, executing warnings and communications to residents in the areas, and supporting evacuation guidance of the residents in the areas effective disaster prevention activities to dangerous locations. <P>SOLUTION: A disaster prevention/evacuation action simulation means 7 has an optimal route searching means divided into three stages such as an optimal route candidate searching means (a first stage) 7a for searching the most suitable route candidate for disaster prevention and evacuation, a hydraulic calculation giving means (a second stage) 7b for giving results of hydraulic calculation, and an optimal route calculating means (a third stage) 7c for calculating the most suitable route as an action track of disaster prevention and evacuation. The means 7 acquires the shortest route as an evacuation time and distance by setting the hydraulic calculation results as a dynamic restriction condition at the basis of a road digital map spread out on a GIS. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2007,JPO&INPIT

Description

In the present invention, when an arbitrary bank breakage point is input, river information such as rainfall and water level (for example, observation data such as rainfall radar and telemeter, water level prediction data, inundation depth, inundation range, bank breakage width, etc.) ) Based on the above, it is possible to calculate inundation analysis and river channel water level prediction in real time, and dynamically display the estimated inundation area at each breach point and time series, as well as the inundation depth approaching every moment By searching for the appropriate disaster prevention and evacuation routes corresponding to dynamic changes such as the behavior of people and people, it is possible to move to the necessary place for the necessary people at the time of flooding. Based on the prediction results of the flooding phenomenon, such as whether to go through, the most suitable route (a route that can safely act while avoiding the dangerous area) is extracted, and evacuation guidance for residents in the area and the efficiency to the dangerous place Can support disaster prevention activities About the use of disaster prevention and evacuation simulation system.

In general, when conducting crisis management associated with flooding, the first necessary information is information related to weather and hydraulic hydrology, such as rain and river water levels, as well as water overflow and levee However, this is not sufficient for actual crisis management. This is because these pieces of information become living information only when combined with human actions that should be taken during floods, such as disaster prevention activities and evacuation actions.

In fact, if flooding occurs due to overflow, breakwater, inland flooding,
River management, such as construction of embankment structures with sandbags, use of mechanical drainage such as pumps, operation of river management facilities such as sluices or excavation of dikes for drainage, in order to minimize damage that may occur A variety of disaster prevention activities will be undertaken by those who are involved in water and flood control, etc., and it will be essential to evacuate local residents safely with appropriate evacuation advisories and orders.

Also, what kind of disaster prevention measures are necessary or effective at the time of flooding is based on the prediction results of flooding phenomena, such as the water condition such as embankment structure, pump operation status, river management facility operation status, etc. It is possible to make a judgment while operating this system by performing prediction calculation with the user changing the calculation conditions arbitrarily, and comparing the result with the original prediction. Even if it is determined that there is, if the countermeasure cannot be implemented, it has no meaning.

In order to be able to execute a certain measure, a person who has the ability to execute the measure must start from a certain place, reach the work place, finish necessary work, and then evacuate to a safe place. Even if it is a measure that can be implemented in normal times, it may be impossible to implement during flooding.

Because, if a measure is effective, it means that at some point the inundation flow reaches the point, but if the inundation flow actually reaches the point, it is generally possible to work. Because it becomes impossible to approach. In particular, in Japan, even before the inundation flood reaches, it may be impossible to work or pass through the inundation, so attention from this point is also necessary. .

On the other hand, the flood control law was revised in June 2001, and the country and prefectures that are river managers designated inundated areas for rivers to be managed. In addition to defining transmission methods and evacuation information, the information will be made public to the residents. A flood hazard map is currently being prepared as a means of publicity.

This flood hazard map publishes various information on flood damage in an easy-to-understand style so that residents can reduce the damage caused by flood damage, and recognize the flood risk in the area where they live. It is used for the purpose of minimizing damage caused by floods by encouraging disaster prevention activities.

Conventionally, such a flood hazard map is a static analog drawing printed on paper. In addition, a flood simulation is performed on the assumption of the planned rainfall used to calculate the basic high water flow of the river in the flooded area. Information necessary as river map data that can be described is described (for example, see Patent Document 1).
Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 10-37150

However, the above-mentioned conventional flood hazard map has information on a paper map, so although the outline of dangerous areas and evacuation routes can be understood, the actual flood is affected by water level, rainfall, etc. However, since it changes from moment to moment, conventional fixed information cannot be handled, and there is a problem that the information of individual residents is not sufficiently reflected.

In other words, in the conventional flood hazard map, the information (a) to (d) described above is manually arranged on a paper map, and the attached information (e) to (i) is not posted in the margin. In addition, since information is fixed on such a paper map, there are problems such as being unable to respond to actual floods and inundations that change from moment to moment in actual floods. However, there are various problems in its creation and dissemination.

In addition, in order to mitigate damage caused by water disasters, such as the process of creating a flood hazard map and lessons learned from recent disasters, such as accurate information on water disasters and ensuring smooth and prompt evacuation of residents Issues have been pointed out.

  For example, (a) Simplification of inundation calculations (inundation information) for small and medium rivers, (b) Inland flooding efforts, (c) Efforts for disaster information other than floods, (d) Unification, (e) Implementation of accurate inundation survey, (f) Consistency of municipal disaster prevention plan, (g) Elimination of long-distance evacuation sites, (h) Enhancement of appropriate management and maintenance of evacuation sites, (i ) Evacuation of cars, (j) Clarification of evacuation standards, (k) Clarification of evacuation routes and ensuring safety, (l) Enhancement of support system in case of disaster, (m) Transmission of disaster prevention (flood) information Measures, (n) well-known flood hazard maps, (o) support for evacuation of vulnerable people, (p) easy-to-understand expression methods, and (q) use of computerization.

In addition, a system has been devised to analyze the inundation by selecting representative points such as important locations on river flood control and locations with a high possibility of bank breakage. Preparations are possible and can be dealt with without any problems, but in cases where the bank breaks in other places, it will be delayed due to lack of preparation and human and property damage will be kept to a minimum. I can't.

In addition, when the inundation situation changes greatly depending on the breakwater location,
There is no means for displaying the expected inundation area for each time series, and there is an increasing demand to see the inundation assumption area for each breach point in the actual work of studying the flood hazard map.

Moreover, since there is no means for displaying the expected inundation area for each breach point and for each time series, it is necessary to prepare an output diagram for each breach point and each time series, and the number of output will be considerable. The handling of figures must also be very difficult.

Furthermore, in the case of evacuation of local residents, the evacuation shelters and evacuation routes are often determined in advance by the flood hazard map described above, but there may be a completely different situation during actual flooding. In addition, depending on the actual evacuation time, it may not be possible to use a predetermined evacuation route or it may be more reasonable to select a different route. It becomes necessary to confirm the evacuation route again according to the action.

On the other hand, as a technique for searching the shortest path on a network composed of nodes and links, Fl
Many methods such as the oyd method, the Bellman-Ford method, and the Dijkstra method are known. Any one of these methods can be used to solve the shortest path problem with the hydraulic calculation result as a dynamic limiting condition under a given moving speed.

However, in this case, since the restriction condition varies with time, for example, the departure time is given in advance, the arrival time is given, or the passage time is set at each step of the search algorithm. It must be decided each time.

Further, in the calculation of the limit departure time, since the departure time, and thus the passage time itself in each step, is an unknown number, there is a problem that considerable difficulty is involved when trying to solve this by the above-described method.

Furthermore, from the practical point of view, the calculation of the fastest arrival time and the latest departure time is also considered by changing the departure time, arrival time, moving speed, or passability criteria rather than selecting the departure point or destination. It is thought that the case may occur more frequently.

Moreover, in the above-described method, the shortest route search is performed every time a certain condition changes. However, since the shortest route search is an algorithm that requires a certain amount of processing time, it is necessary to flexibly handle the change of these conditions. is there.

There are various known methods for searching for the shortest route on the network, but each of them gives only one route that maximizes or minimizes the value under a certain evaluation function. Therefore, it becomes a problem how to search for the second and subsequent route candidates.

In order to solve such a problem, a solution by the GA method or the NN method has been studied, but it is not necessarily an established method, and a too exact solution is not appropriate from the viewpoint of this simulation. This is because when a route that is only slightly different is searched, it has the same characteristics hydraulically and has no meaning as an alternative route.

The present invention has been made in view of such conventional problems, such as introducing the concept of collision history, efficiently searching different routes by avoiding nodes with collision history as much as possible, etc. The purpose is to search for the optimal route based on the prediction result of the flooding phenomenon. More specifically, when an arbitrary bank breakpoint is input, the current river information is used for real-time. Inundation analysis and river channel water level prediction can be calculated, and the inundation area can be displayed dynamically for each breach point and time series. Based on the prediction results of the flooding phenomenon, such as which route should be taken, the optimum route (a route that can safely act while avoiding the dangerous region) is extracted, and warnings are given to the residents in the region.
The purpose is to provide a useful disaster prevention and evacuation behavior simulation system that can support evacuation guidance of residents in the area and efficient disaster prevention activities to dangerous places. .

In order to solve the conventional problems as described above and achieve the intended purpose, the configuration of the present invention is to acquire a database on river information such as river channel data, hydrological data, and meteorological data, and data on flood plains. Flood plain database, runoff analysis means to predict the flow into the river, river channel water level prediction means to predict the water level at the reference point and arbitrary point of the river, and breakwater inflow to calculate the inflow at the breakwater point All of the volume calculation means, inundation analysis means that perform real-time inundation analysis of any breach point using observation data such as rainfall data and telemeters, and water level prediction data, and simulation means that dynamically display the inundation flow Alternatively, in the disaster prevention / evacuation behavior simulation system, which is selected or combined, the simulation means includes:
Optimal route candidate search means for searching for optimal route candidates for disaster prevention and evacuation, hydraulic calculation grant means for giving hydraulic calculation results, and optimal route for calculating optimal routes as disaster and evacuation action trajectories It exists in the disaster prevention and evacuation behavior simulation system that searches in three steps with the calculation means.

Further, the optimum route retrieval means uses the hydraulic route calculation result as a dynamic restriction condition based on the optimum route candidate retrieved from the road digital map developed on the GIS, and the shortest route of evacuation time and / or distance. It is good to ask.

Further, the optimum route search means searches for an optimum route that gives a marginal departure time, an optimum route that gives the fastest arrival time, and an optimum route that gives the latest departure time, as determined by the shortest route search with ranking. good.

In addition, the dynamic restriction condition may exclude nodes and links that cannot be used from the viewpoint of whether or not it can be safely passed depending on the inundation state predicted from the hydraulic calculation result, from the shortest path search target.

Further, the road digital map expresses the road structure as a network composed of nodes and links, and notes and link positions and connection information, attribute information such as road type and width, inundation depth on the road surface, inundation range, road surface sign. Based on the observation data, etc., it is preferable to perform the shortest route search that minimizes the evacuation time and distance.

In addition, route information such as departure point, destination, travel speed, departure time, arrival time, total travel distance, total travel time, transit nodes and links, time to safe travel at each node, critical points, etc. Based on this, it is better to determine the time factor required for movement.

Further, the time element gives a departure time, and determines the earliest arrival time to determine the earliest time to reach the destination, and the arrival time to give the latest departure time. It is preferable that the latest departure time for determining whether or not to arrive at the destination and the limit departure time for determining the limit time before the destination can be safely reached without departing in the entire situation.

Since the present invention is configured as described above and realizes the dynamic restriction condition processing associated with disaster prevention / evacuation behavior in three stages, in other words, the route candidate optimal for disaster prevention and evacuation is searched. Search is divided into three stages: optimal route candidate search means, hydraulic calculation grant means for giving hydraulic calculation results, and optimal route calculation means for calculating the optimum route as the action trajectory for disaster prevention and evacuation. Disaster prevention
By having an evacuation behavior simulation function, it is possible to search for an appropriate disaster prevention / evacuation route corresponding to dynamic changes such as inundation depth and human behavior.

In particular, in this simulation system, by introducing the concept of collision history independently and searching by avoiding nodes with collision history as much as possible, different paths can be searched efficiently. Can provide the optimal route.

In addition, as a result of hydraulic calculation, it is possible to know the value of the inundation depth at all points and at all times. Therefore, it is possible to calculate a time zone where the traffic is impossible for each point (impossible time zone).

Furthermore, since this simulation system can calculate the optimal disaster prevention and evacuation route according to human behavior, the evacuation route determined in advance depending on the time of actual evacuation cannot be used or a different route can be used. It is possible to solve the problem of having to select, and to provide and confirm an accurate evacuation route in accordance with the current flood and action.

In addition, because the simulation necessary for disaster prevention and evacuation behavior such as whether evacuation is necessary, when to start evacuation, whether or not evacuation was successful, the response capability of disaster prevention related organizations has been improved. Evacuation instructions are given at an appropriate timing, and the river basin residents can evacuate safely. As a result, the loss of human lives and the occurrence of injuries can be reduced, and property damage can be minimized.

Also, in the disaster prevention / evacuation behavior simulation means of this system, when the required point on the map is clicked, the starting point and destination point positions are input, and then the starting point and destination point positions are input. , The ranked shortest path search in the first stage of the entire routine, the second
The inaccessible start time calculation in the stage can be automatically executed, and then, even when the moving speed on the general road is input and the value of the moving speed is changed, the third route is not returned without returning to the shortest route search.
Only the calculation part of the optimal path of the stage can be processed. Next, enter the item that was considered last, enter the departure time in the case of the fastest arrival time, and the arrival time in the case of the latest departure time, so that the desired time and the optimal route at that time can be easily and The effect is that it can be calculated quickly.

Furthermore, in disaster prevention activities, it is possible to obtain a limit departure time for the route from the work point to the evacuation point, by which time it cannot be safely returned without leaving the work point. By subtracting the work time for taking appropriate measures (since it means the time of the last necessary to reach the work point), the route from the departure point to the work point can be reached at this time. Since it can be solved as a problem of delayed departure time, it is possible to quickly perform judgment and analysis such that it is possible to take necessary measures if it can depart by the time of the solution (limit departure time) Also has.

In addition, it is possible to perform real-time inundation analysis and river channel water level prediction using current river information simply by inputting an arbitrary bank breakage point. In addition to inundation analysis by selecting representative points of important areas on river flood control and areas where there is a high possibility of bank breakage, the bank was broken at other points. It can be handled smoothly even in cases (unexpected cases).

In addition, by displaying the results on a map, graph, and form, extract the dangerous areas and routes that can be safely evacuated, warn and contact the residents in the area, and evacuate the residents in the area It also has the effect of being able to support efficient disaster prevention activities for guidance and dangerous places.

In other words, (a) based on the prediction of inundation flow, it is possible to support the quick and accurate judgment of disaster prevention personnel regarding disaster prevention measures (support for effective disaster prevention measures), and (b) providing information directly to residents If the environment is established, residents can support their own judgments regarding evacuation behavior. In addition to being able to be used as a practical scenario for (c) crisis management exercises, and (d) to be used as a learning tool for disaster management personnel, it is possible to select several assumed hydrographs during normal times and flood By learning the simulation as if it were a game, the situation of flooding can be made common sense and the disaster prevention capability in case of emergency can be enhanced.

Furthermore, as soon as river information such as rainfall is received, it will be handled as a series of outflow, flooding, and evacuation.
Because it is possible to provide information as close as possible to various flood inundation conditions as quickly and accurately as possible, unlike conventional flood hazard maps on paper maps, information is not fixed, and actual floods that change from moment to moment It can cope with inundation, and in the meantime, it delivers information in real time under various flood inundation conditions, and has the effect of helping to minimize damage such as human lives due to flood damage.

In addition, by acquiring disaster information data related to disaster prediction, etc. from a database that can search past disaster history and similar disasters on the network, you can acquire past disaster status and current disaster status as needed. Therefore, by combining with the simulation result, there is an effect that it is possible to accurately predict what kind of damage will occur in the future.

Moreover, using the mobile phone, PHS, mobile information terminal, car navigation system, and fixed terminal platforms, you can call up the flood hazard map at any time and provide river information such as inundation to the evacuation site so that you can evacuate safely and appropriately. In addition to guiding the route of the river, river management is carried out under the consistent water system, so the amount of rainfall that falls in the basin to the river, the trend of the water level, and an indication of the possibility of flooding inside and outside the water There is an effect that it can be foreseen.

In addition, if the risk of a disaster is forcibly notified to a mobile terminal in a hazardous area, the nearest evacuation site and route are indicated, or if the residents are not aware of the danger immediately before the disaster Disaster prevention and river information can be distributed and danger can be recognized quickly and accurately.

In addition, since river information such as hourly rainfall, accumulated rainfall, and water level can be distributed by focusing on unit basins of appropriate size for municipalities, not only disaster prevention personnel but also the general public It is extremely effective in understanding the scope of the relationship and what you need (one-to-one) and predicting and interpreting the danger of flooding from rainfall.

Moreover, disaster prevention officers can distribute the information necessary for the proper flood control activities from the river information such as rainfall, water level, etc., and collective information on the screen, in other words, risk of flood damage. Have appropriate logic and scenario to judge sex (as short as possible)
Since information that changes automatically at a fixed update cycle can be distributed in real time,
It is extremely efficient and effective.

The optimum route candidate search means, the hydraulic calculation result giving means, and the optimum route calculation means are searched in three stages, and the optimum route search means is based on the road digital map developed on the GIS. By using the hydraulic calculation results as dynamic restriction conditions, the shortest route in terms of evacuation time and distance is obtained. The dynamic restriction condition excludes nodes and links that cannot be used from the viewpoint of whether or not it can be safely passed according to the inundation situation predicted from the hydraulic calculation result from the shortest route search target, and the road digital map Expresses the road structure as a network consisting of nodes and links, and position and connection information of notes and links, attribute information such as road type and width,
Based on observation data such as the inundation depth on the road surface, the inundation range, and road markings, the shortest route search that minimizes the evacuation time and distance is performed.

Next, an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. A in the figure is a disaster prevention / evacuation behavior simulation system according to the present invention (hereinafter simply referred to as “the present system”). This present system A includes a database 1 relating to river information, a floodplain as shown in FIG. The floodplain database 2 for obtaining data on the river, the runoff analysis means 3 for predicting the flow into the river, the river level predicting means 4 for predicting the water level at the river reference point and any point, and the inflow at the breakwater The inundation flow calculation means 5 for calculating the breach point, and the inundation analysis means 6 for performing inundation analysis at any breach point in real time using observation data such as rainfall data and telemeters and water level prediction data
And a disaster prevention / evacuation behavior simulation means 7 for dynamically displaying the inundation flow.

Such a simulation means 7 includes an optimum route candidate search means (first stage) 7a for searching for an optimum route candidate for disaster prevention and evacuation, and a hydraulic calculation grant means (second stage) for giving a result of hydraulic calculation.
7b, and an optimum route search means for performing a search divided roughly into three stages: an optimum route calculation means (third stage) 7c for calculating an optimum route as an action trajectory for disaster prevention and evacuation.

The simulation means 7 obtains the shortest route on the evacuation time / distance by using the hydraulic calculation result as a dynamic restriction condition based on the road digital map developed on the GIS.

The dynamic restriction condition excludes nodes and links that cannot be used from the viewpoint of whether they can pass safely according to the inundation situation predicted from the hydraulic calculation results from the shortest path search target. The search part is separated from the part that gives the hydraulic calculation result and the human behavior (movement pattern of the movement speed and desired time), and the following first step: calculation of the optimal route candidate (ranking shortest route) Search), 2nd stage: Giving hydraulic calculation results (giving dynamic restriction conditions), 3rd stage: Optimum route calculation.

(1) First stage: Optimal route candidate search means (rank assignment shortest route search)
First, in such a first stage, the necessary number of shortest routes are searched for minimizing the time distance in a state where there is no restriction condition, and as shown in FIG. In the route pattern, R1, R2,... Rn are set in order from the shortest route.

When the shortest search is performed from a certain point by the Dijkstra method, the searched nodes are enlarged while drawing a concentric circle from the point and radially on the tree as shown in FIG. Search the shortest route by Dijkstra method from both starting point and destination,
Each time one parent node is generated, it is checked whether the generated parent node matches any node in the partner registered node group.

If there is a match, such a parent node is the shortest path from its own point of view in this step and is the shortest path from the collision node to the other party's starting point, so at least this path is It can be said that this is the shortest route connecting both starting points via the collision point. Since this collision point is considered to gradually expand outward as the concentric circles expand, if this routine is repeated, detours are sequentially generated and R1,
R2... Rn is obtained (hereinafter referred to simply as the collision method).

At this time, the first problem is whether R1 is the shortest path in a strict sense.
For this reason, as a first step, R1 is first obtained by the ordinary Dijkstra method, and then R2 and later are searched by this collision method.

Next, the problem is when searching for multiple routes, the same route is searched twice,
There is a risk that a slightly different route will be searched. In this system, the concept of collision history is introduced, and by searching for nodes with a collision history as much as possible, different routes can be searched efficiently. There are advantages such as.

Specifically, first, nodes that have a collision history when checking for collisions are excluded from the target,
Next, nodes that have a collision history and interfere directly with the Dijkstra routine are searched for as much as possible.

(2) Second stage: Hydraulic calculation result granting means (granting dynamic restriction conditions)
A hydraulic calculation result is assigned to each of the route candidates R1, R2,. As a result of hydraulic calculation, the value of the inundation depth at all points and at all times is known. By setting, it is possible to calculate the time zone when traffic is impossible for each point.

This calculation is performed from the starting point P to the destination point Q on each route Ri, and the result is illustrated on the xt space-time plane formed by the movement distance x from P and time t, as shown in FIG. , Route Ri
Each time, it is also possible to express the range of the unnecessary time zone along x.

In this case, since it is meaningless to consider whether or not it is possible to pass after the inundation flow has passed, since the first time when it becomes impassable is demand, this time is set as the impassable start time, and thereafter The point is treated as impassable.

If this line is shown on the same plane for all route candidates, it will be as shown in FIG. 4, but note that the destination Q, which is the same point in real space, is not necessarily the same point on the xt space-time plane. Cost.

(3) Third stage: Optimal route calculation means The optimal route is calculated along the human behavior on the xt space-time plane, and the human behavior moving in the real space at the speed v is xt It is represented by a locus having 1 / v as the tangential slope on the space-time plane. When moving at a constant speed v, this locus is a straight line represented by t = x / v + t ₀ .

Whether or not the vehicle can move from the departure point to the destination through a certain route can be determined by whether or not the trajectory is below the inaccessible start time line. This is because if there is a part that protrudes upwards, the inundation depth at that point is already beyond the range that can be passed and cannot be further advanced.

When the departure time is given and the fastest arrival time is obtained, the shorter travel distance R2 has a faster arrival time te2, but in this route, the action trajectory is positioned above the impassable start time line. Since there is a portion, it cannot be used. Eventually, te1 having the earliest arrival time in the route that can pass through all lines becomes the fastest arrival time.

In contrast, when the arrival time is given and the latest departure time is obtained, the trajectory descending from the same time te toward the departure place at the destination Q1 and the line of each inaccessible start time The time is obtained from the relationship.
In this case, attention is required because the action trajectory itself is divided into several lines according to the position of Qi. Of course, the higher the route, the later the departure time, but the higher the location, the closer the inaccessible start time line gets closer, so the action trajectory is in the route located below the inaccessible start time line. The time tsi at the point P of the action locus located at the top is the latest departure time.

The marginal departure time can be calculated as the time tsg at the point P of the action trajectory located at the top of the set of action trajectories that touch the lower side of the inaccessible start time line of each route.

Here, the legends in the collision method, Dijkstra method or speed relationship are shown below.
(a) Legend in the collision method
vc [i]: Collision history
0: No collision 1: Collision completed
k: Route number
kk: Number of routes including discarded routes
kqmax: Maximum number of searched optimum route candidates
ss: Number of registered nodes from the starting point
iFs: Set of registered nodes from the starting point
ismin: Parent node number in this step from the starting point
se: Number of registered nodes from the destination point
iFe: A set of registered nodes from a destination point
iemin: number of the parent node in this step from the destination point

(b) Legend about Dijkstra method from the starting point
NMAX: Maximum number of nodes
vs [i]: Flag to determine whether it is a parent node (all 0 in the initial state)
vvs [i]: Flag for determining whether or not the node is a registered node (all 0 in the initial state)
ssmax: Maximum number of registered nodes from the starting point
iFs [i]: Set of registered nodes from the starting point (all 0 in the initial state)
ismin: number of the parent node in this step from the starting point

(c) Legend about Dijkstra method from the target point
ve [i]: Flag for determining whether it is a parent node (all 0 in the initial state)
vve [i]: Judgment flag of whether or not it is a registered node (all 0 in the initial state)
semax: Maximum number of registered nodes from the target point
iFe [i]: Set of registered nodes from the target point (all 0 in the initial state)
iemin: number of the parent node in this step from the destination point

(d) Speed relation
uratio: Ratio of moving speed on highway to moving speed on general road
ap1 [i] [j]: road type, 0 is expressway

In addition, the main variables, constants, structures and functions used in the following are shown. “Main variables used in a common sense”
i: node number j: link number k: route number l: route point number on route m
: Mesh number n: examination number coordinates (x, y) r: distance z: altitude h: water level t: time (absolute time ta, reference time to, elapsed time tb from the left, time step number tn, time step interval dt , Ta = to + tb, tb = tn · dt)

"constant"
IMAX // maximum number of nodes in the road digital map original data
MMAX // mesh maximum number
TNMAX // Maximum number of time series in hydraulic calculation
CORN // Maximum number of links connected to one node
POINT // Maximum number of points in one route
HONSU // Number of shortest path candidates
NMAX // Maximum number of routes considered in disaster prevention activity simulation
MUGEN // Large number such as large distance (m) used for shortest path search

"Structure Definition"
typedef struct Kdata {
short int jp; // number of nodes connected to the node
int ip [CORN]; // node number same as above
float rp [CORN]; /// Distance to the above
float zp [CORN]; // Minimum ground height of connection link
char ap1 [CORN]; // attribute of connected link 1 (type of road)
char ap2 [CORN]; // Connected link attribute 2 (road width type)
char ap3 [CORN]; // Connected link attribute 3 (reserved)
float xp, yp; // the coordinates of the node
int mp; // Mesh number to which the node belongs} Kdata; // Original data of route information

typedef struct Kerio_q {
int kqmax; // Maximum number of shortest path candidates <HONSU
int lqmax [HONSU]; // maximum number of points belonging to the route
int iq [HONSU] [POINT]; // Node number same as above
float xq [HONSU] [POINT]; // x coordinate as above
float yq [HONSU] [POINT]; // Y-coordinate same as above
float rq [HONSU] [POINT]; // Cumulative distance to above
float zq [HONSU] [POINT]; // Elevation up to above
int mq [HONSU] [POINT]; // Mesh number to which the above belongs
char aq1 [HONSU] [POINT]; // Same as above
char aq2 [HONSU] [POINT]; // attribute 2 above
char aq3 [HONSU] [POINT]; // attribute 3
float rdistotal [HONSU]; // total extension (highway consideration)
} Kerio_q; // Route information of optimal route candidate (ranked shortest route)

typedef struct Keiro_r {
int lrmax; // maximum number of points belonging to the route
int ir [POINT]; // node number same as above
float xr [POINT]; // x coordinate same as above
float yr [POINT]; // y coordinate same as above
float tb_r [POINT]; /// same time as above
int lc; // Critical point on the route
float u; // travel speed of general road
float ta_s, ta_e; // Departure time, Arrival time} keiro_r; // Route information of the optimal route

typedef struct Critime {
float tb [HONSU] [POINT]; // Impassable start time} Critime; // Unrecommended start time

"Declaration of main functions used"
Keiro_q findroute (Kdata kd [], float xs, float ys, float xe, float ye, float z [], int i
s, int ie) {
// kd [IMAX + 1]: Original data of route information
// xs, ys, xe, ye: starting point, destination coordinates
// z [MMAX]; Ground height of each mesh
// is, ie: number of departure node, destination node}; // search for optimum route candidate (ranked shortest route) kq based on original data kd of route information

Critime calcritime (keiro_q _* kq, float h [] [], float dt, int tnmax, float hdpat) {
// _* kq: Route information of optimal route candidate
// h [MMAX + 1] [TMAX + 1]: Hydraulic calculation result
// dt: time step time interval
// tnmax: Maximum number of time step
// hdpat: Inaccessible water depth}; // Calculate inaccessible start time tw from optimal route candidate kq and hydraulic calculation result h

keiro_r calatestime (keiro_ q _* kq, Critime _* tw, float to) {
// _* kq: Optimal route candidate route information
// _* tw: Inaccessible start time
// to: Reference time (time when tn = 0)
}; // Generate the optimum route kr that gives the limit departure time from the optimum route candidate kq

keiro_r caletime (keiro_q _* kq, Critime _* tw, float to, int _* fs) {
// _* kq: Optimal route candidate route information
// _* tw: Inaccessible start time
// to: Reference time (time when tn = 0)
// _* fs: Judgment whether or not the destination can be reached}; // Generate the optimum route kr that gives the limit departure time from the optimum route candidate kq

keiro_r calstime (keiro_q _* kq, Critime _* tw, float to, int _* fs) {
// _* kq: Optimal route candidate route information
// _* tw: Inaccessible start time
// to: Reference time (time when tn = 0)
// _* fs: Judgment whether or not the destination has been reached}; // Generate the optimum route kr that gives the latest departure time from the optimum route candidate kq

Re-expressing the optimal route calculation using the above constants, variables, structures, and functions, the portion for calculating the optimal route candidate in the first stage is the original data kd (road digital map) of the Kdata type route information. ) To generate the keiro_q-type optimal route candidate structure kq by performing a ranked shortest route search, and the second-stage hydraulic calculation result assignment part is the optimum route obtained in the first step. The process of calculating the Critime-type inaccessible start time structure tw from the candidate structure kq and the hydraulic calculation result h, the optimal path calculation part of the third stage is the optimal path candidate structure kq and the inaccessible start time It can be redefined as a process of generating the keiro_r type optimum path structure kr from the structure tw.

Next, the optimum route candidate search calculation means 7a will be briefly described. 8 to 10 show the calculation flow of the optimum route candidate search means (ranked shortest route search method (collision method)).

  Next, the hydraulic calculation result giving means (passage start time calcritime) 7b will be briefly described. As a method for assigning hydraulic calculation results, FIG. 11 shows a flow for calculating the inaccessible start time tb_w [k] [1] on the route.

Next, the optimum route calculation means 7c will be briefly described. As the optimum route calculation means 7c, the calculation flow for calculating the limit departure time, the fastest arrival time, and the latest departure time is shown in FIGS.
4 shows.

Next, the basic structure of the display screen used in the present invention will be briefly described. Since the simulation of the disaster prevention activity and the evacuation behavior is a routine that is accompanied by the display of the hydraulic calculation result, the display of the result is also performed using the display screen of the hydraulic calculation result. The screen has a multi-layer structure, and as shown in FIG. 15, a basic screen layer 10 for displaying area information on a lowermost map layer (not shown), a municipal boundary, a basin boundary, etc. Boundary display layer 11 for displaying
A user usage layer (not shown) and content display layers 12 and 13 are arranged one after another.

Among these, the basic screen display layer 10 displays area information such as the limit evacuation start time and the distribution of evacuation allowance time for each mesh in the evacuation action. Content layer 1
2 shows various information related to shelters and disaster prevention related facilities, various information related to evacuation routes (route location, evacuation allowance time at each point on the route, critical points, routes that can also be shown as movies) It is possible to display the inundation level along each of the points) and the hydrograph at each point.

The disaster prevention / evacuation behavior simulation means of the system configured as described above first inputs the positions of the starting point and the destination point by clicking on a required point on the map. Starting point,
When the position of the destination point is input, the shortest ranked route search in the first stage and the inaccessible start time calculation in the second stage are automatically executed in the entire routine.

Next, the moving speed on the general road is input. The movement speed on the expressway is different from that of ordinary roads, but if the two movement speed ratios are different, the search will start again from the shortest route candidate search, so it is necessary to predetermine this ratio separately in the environment settings. There is. As a result, even when the value of the moving speed is changed, it is possible to process only the calculation part of the optimum route in the third stage without returning to the shortest route candidate search.

By the way, when calculating the inaccessible start time, the value of the inaccessible water depth is required, but this is not so often changed, so as described above, it is determined in advance in the environment setting. Yes.

Next, when an item to be considered last is input, and the departure time is input in the case of the fastest arrival time, and the arrival time is input in the case of the latest departure time, the required time and the optimal route at that time are calculated. In the second and subsequent examinations, the calculation can be started from any of the change in position, moving speed, and time as a condition.

The result of the examination is immediately displayed on the screen, but since the layer used is a content display layer, various results of hydraulic calculations can be displayed below it. It is also possible to display related information such as the status of shelters and disaster prevention facilities at the same time.

The contents displayed as a result of the examination include the starting point, the position of the target point, the route color-coded according to the margin time, the critical point, and the like. By clicking on the route,
The water level longitudinal section on the route can be recalled and displayed as a moving image.

It is also possible to display a time change such as a water level at the point by clicking an arbitrary point on the route. The examination results here are stored together in a list. The saved result can be recalled and displayed by clicking the examination number column in this list. Needless to say, based on the called result, a part of the condition can be changed and a new examination can be added. FIG. 16 shows a flow for calculating an optimum route between two points, and FIG. 17 shows an interface for calculating an optimum route between two points.

Next, the disaster prevention activity simulation function used in this system will be described. The purpose of the disaster prevention activity simulation is to examine whether or not the disaster prevention activity is actually possible when an effective disaster prevention activity is found. In the end, whether or not the activity is possible is determined by whether or not the person responsible for the activity can return to a safe location after leaving the location and reaching the work location. However, the fact that it is effective as a countermeasure means that the water will come around if it is messed up. The review is completed quickly.

Considering the details of the study, there are two broad categories. The first is the examination of the optimum route from a certain starting point to the work point, and the second is the examination of the optimum route when returning to a safe point again after completing the necessary work. However, the actual study will be performed in the opposite direction.

That is, the route from the work point to the evacuation point is first solved as a problem of the limit departure time, which is how long it is not possible to return safely without leaving the work point, and the limit departure time is obtained.
Subtracting the work time to take the necessary measures from here means that it is the last time to reach the work point, so the route from the departure point to the work point arrives at this time If it is solved as such a problem of the latest departure time, it can be determined that the necessary measures can be taken if the departure can be made by the time of the solution (limit departure time).

As specific examination work, as shown in FIG. 19, the respective positions are entered in the work position input field 14 in the order of the work point, the retreat point, and the departure point, and the work condition input field 15 When the moving speed of the general road is input, all the calculations of the two parts are automatically executed, and this limit departure time is obtained in the examination item column 16 as the last time at which it is necessary to leave the departure point.

Since the examination result is output to the content display screen 17 as in the case of the optimal route between two points, it is displayed with necessary information such as the result of the hydraulic calculation, the related disaster prevention related facilities, the status of the stockpiling material, and the like. be able to.

The contents include the limit departure time of the departure point, the arrival time at the work point, the departure time from the work point, the arrival time at the evacuation point, and the extra time to reach the evacuation point via the work point from the departure point. It consists of color-coded routes and critical points, but if you click on a route, you can see a vertical cross-sectional view of the water level along the route, and if you click on any point, you can see time changes such as the water level at that point, This is the same as the case of the optimal route problem between the two points described above.

Next, the evacuation behavior simulation function implemented in this system will be described. Since the evacuation behavior simulation is performed based on the hydraulic calculation result, a range smaller than the mesh used in the hydraulic calculation cannot be distinguished. For this reason, analysis is performed on the premise that people belonging to the same mesh take the same action. However, the number of meshes currently used for hydraulic calculation ranges from thousands to tens of thousands, and the processing becomes enormous.

However, in the case of evacuation behavior, shelters are often set in advance,
Since the action radius is about 2 km, there is not much room for selection anyway.
For this reason, since it is sufficient to assume several shelters for each mesh, the entire process can be divided into two parts and executed.

  That is, as the first stage, as shown in FIG. 20, based on the route information original data (kd [i]) S201, optimum evacuation route candidates (kq [m ] [b]) The search in S202 is executed in advance, and the optimum path candidate structure obtained as a result is stored in the hard disk S202 as data.

In this way, in the evacuation behavior analysis that is performed after the hydraulic calculation is executed as the second stage, only the inaccessible start time and the optimal route are calculated based on the data stored in the hard disk. Although it is good, since most of the processing time is spent in the part of the shortest route search with ranking, the analysis of the actual evacuation behavior can be performed quickly.

When analyzing evacuation behavior for the entire floodplain, it is meaningless to set the time to arrive at the evacuation center and find the latest departure time. It is the fastest arrival time at the evacuation center after giving the time or evacuation start time for each mesh.

In the former case, it is possible to calculate all at once as long as the moving speed is given. In this case, walking is the principle of evacuation, so there is no need to consider highways. In a special case where a car is used, an optimum route search between two points is performed.

This situation is the same when obtaining the fastest arrival time, but in this case, since it is necessary to give the departure time individually for each mesh, this input is difficult. For this reason, in the evacuation behavior simulation interface, in order to increase the efficiency of this input, as shown in FIG. 21, when the batch input button 18 is pressed and the entire area is input at once, or the range on the map is surrounded by a closed curve, There are some ideas such as selecting the meshes inside.

In addition, evacuation behavior is considered for meshes for which no specific departure time has been entered, so if you want to see only the status of individual meshes, the departure time from that mesh You only need to enter it.

The display of the examination results is basically the same as in the optimal route problem between two points, but in this case, the marginal departure time in the case of the distribution of the marginal departure time for each mesh and the problem of the fastest arrival time Since the plane information such as the distribution of N is generated, this information is written in the basic screen display layer 10.

For an evacuation route, clicking on a mesh displays the route associated with the mesh. The displayed contents are the same as in the case of the two-point problem. On the other hand, when you click on the shelter, you can see not only the static attribute data such as the facility contents of the shelter but also the dynamic data that accompanies the evacuation behavior, such as the number of people accommodated as a result of the evacuation behavior and the range of people who have evacuated. Is displayed.

The disaster prevention / evacuation behavior simulation system of the present invention is not limited to this embodiment, and can be freely modified within the scope of the object of the present invention, and the present invention encompasses all of them. Is.

For example, the river information database 1 is a GIS (Geographic Information System: Geograph).
It supports the development of map data by ic Information System), has river channel data acquisition means and hydrological data acquisition means to acquire river channel data on the network, and is necessary for calculation of river channel water level and display of cross-sectional views It is intended to maintain river specification data.

The flood plain database 2 corresponds to the development of the national land data base and has (a) flood plain data acquisition means for acquiring data on the flood plain on the network. Such flood plain data acquisition means calculates the inundation depth from the obtained land information and is used for calculating the evacuation route. Specifically, it will prepare the flood plain elevation and land use data necessary for the inundation analysis, as well as the location and attribute data of the evacuation site necessary for studying the evacuation plan.

Furthermore, the runoff analysis means 3 is preferably provided with a river inflow calculation function for calculating a flow rate flowing into the river using an estimated value or actual measurement value of the upstream average rainfall or an arbitrarily set rainfall value as an index.

The river water level prediction means 4 consists of two models, runoff analysis and river unsteady flow, and it can be used for rainfalls set arbitrarily such as rainfall of major floods in the past and planned rainfall used to calculate basic high water flow. Perform runoff analysis calculations. The river level in the river channel is calculated by indeterminate flow calculation using the calculated runoff.

Furthermore, the breach point inflow calculation means 5 calculates the flow rate flowing into the floodplain from the breach point, and uses the crossover formula from the river level at the breach point, the water level at the flood plain, and the breach width. calculate. still,
The bank breakage width and how it spreads are based on, for example, the civil engineering research manual.

The inundation analysis means 6 performs inundation analysis using the flow rate flowing into the inundation field from an arbitrary bank breakage point. As an inundation analysis method, for example, two-dimensional that can accurately reproduce the movement of the inundation flow An indefinite flow model is mentioned.

Furthermore, the feedback correction means 8 includes a local information feedback function that is calculated based on information from the local area, a water depth feedback function that is calculated from the inundation depth by the inundation sensor, and an inundation area that is calculated from the inundation area based on observation data such as artificial satellites. It is good to have a feedback function and an inland water discharge amount feedback function to calculate from the discharge of the inland water pump, and feed back various observation information that changes every moment at the time of the bank breakage as the initial value of the flood prediction calculation,
Inundation analysis is performed with high accuracy.

The “river information” referred to in this specification is a selection or combination of at least all or any of the information (a) to (f) described below.
(a) Rainfall in the basin is collected in a water network distributed in a dendritic manner in the basin, and the collected water is continuously recessed from the surrounding topography, or a river channel as a space surrounded by a dike Various facilities (radar rain gauges, rainfall observations) that observe the phenomenon as a physical quantity of the phenomenon of flowing down to the sea by rain or the rain phenomenon, runoff phenomenon, and flowing phenomenon at all times such as during normal water and flooding All information obtained at a station, water level observatory, etc.).
(b) Information about various facilities and all information that changes in chronological order as a product of artificial acts affecting spills and discharges of dams, dikes, catchment weirs, etc.
(c) All information that changes spatially and in time series about the distribution of flood inundation caused by malfunction or destruction of facilities.
(d) Spatial and time-series changes in the distribution and status of inundation and inundation caused by staying without being eliminated smoothly due to the rainfall in the basin and the topographical characteristics of the basin All information.
(e) All information that changes in space and time series about flood prevention activities and flood control activities carried out for the purpose of deterring and controlling flooding and flooding.
(f) For the purpose of reducing damage to property and its structure accumulated as a result of the protection of the lives of living and existing human beings and living organisms and social activities in the basin by flooding, flooding and flooding All information on damage mitigation actions, including warning actions, evacuation actions to be taken, and news reports to trigger those actions.

It is explanatory drawing which shows the whole structure of the disaster prevention / evacuation action simulation system which concerns on this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows the concept of the route candidate (ranked shortest route search) implemented by the disaster prevention / evacuation behavior simulation means of the disaster prevention / evacuation behavior simulation system. It is explanatory drawing which shows the concept of the collision method implemented with the said disaster prevention and evacuation action simulation means. It is explanatory drawing which shows the provision conceptual diagram of the hydraulic calculation result implemented with the said disaster prevention and evacuation action simulation means. It is explanatory drawing which shows calculation of the fastest arrival time implemented with the said disaster prevention and evacuation action simulation means. It is explanatory drawing which shows calculation of the latest departure time implemented with the said disaster prevention and evacuation action simulation means. It is explanatory drawing which shows calculation of the limit departure time implemented with the said disaster prevention and evacuation action simulation means. It is a flowchart which shows the optimal route candidate search means implemented with the same disaster prevention and evacuation action simulation system. It is a flowchart which shows the optimal route candidate search means. It is a flowchart which shows the optimal route candidate search means. It is the calculation flow of the impassable start time implemented by the hydraulic calculation result grant means implemented by the disaster prevention / evacuation behavior simulation system. It is a calculation flow of the limit departure time implemented by the optimal route calculation means. It is a calculation flow of the fastest arrival time used in the optimal route calculation means. It is a calculation flow of the latest departure time used in the optimal route calculation means. It is explanatory drawing which shows the basic structure of the display screen implemented with the same disaster prevention and evacuation action simulation system. It is a flow of point-to-point optimum route calculation used in the optimum route calculation means. This is an interface for calculating the optimal point-to-point route. It is a calculation flow of disaster prevention activity simulation. This is an interface for simulation of disaster prevention activities. It is a calculation flow of evacuation behavior simulation. It is an interface for evacuation behavior simulation.

Explanation of symbols

1 River information database 2 Floodplain database 3 Runoff analysis means 4 River channel water level prediction means 5 Breakwater inflow calculation means 6 Inundation analysis means 7 Disaster prevention / evacuation behavior simulation means 7a Optimal route candidate search means (first stage)
7b Hydraulic calculation granting means (second stage)
7c Optimal route calculation means (3rd stage)
8 Feedback Correction Means 10 Basic Screen Display Layer 11 Boundary Display Layer 12 Content Display Layer 13 Content Display Layer 14 Work Position Input Field
15 work condition input field 16 examination item field 17 content display screen 18 collective input button

Claims (7)

Database on river information such as river channel data, hydrological data, and meteorological data, flood plain database for obtaining data on flood plains, runoff analysis means for predicting the flow into rivers, river reference points and water levels at arbitrary points River channel water level prediction means for predicting river breach point, breach point inflow calculation means for calculating breach point inflow, observation data such as rainfall data and telemeter, and water level prediction data for inundation analysis at any breach point In the disaster prevention / evacuation behavior simulation system, which selects or combines all or any of the flood analysis means for performing in real time and the simulation means for dynamically displaying the flood flow,
The simulation means includes an optimum route candidate search means for searching for an optimum route candidate for disaster prevention and evacuation, a hydraulic calculation grant means for giving a result of hydraulic calculation, and an optimum route as an action trajectory for disaster prevention and evacuation. Disaster prevention and evacuation behavior simulation system characterized by searching in three stages with the optimal route calculation means for calculating.   The optimum route search means obtains the shortest route of the evacuation time and / or distance using the hydraulic calculation result as a dynamic restriction condition based on the optimum route candidate searched from the road digital map developed on the GIS. The disaster prevention / evacuation behavior simulation system according to claim 1.   The optimum route search means searches for an optimum route that gives a marginal departure time, an optimum route that gives the fastest arrival time, and an optimum route that gives the latest departure time based on the optimum route candidates determined by the shortest route search with ranking. The disaster prevention / evacuation behavior simulation system according to claim 1, wherein the disaster prevention / evacuation behavior simulation system is performed.   The dynamic restriction condition excludes nodes and links that cannot be used from the viewpoint of whether or not it can be safely passed according to the inundation situation predicted from hydraulic calculation results, from shortest path search targets. Item 3. The disaster prevention / evacuation behavior simulation system according to item 2.   The road digital map expresses the road structure as a network consisting of nodes and links, such as notebook and link positions and connection information, attribute information such as road type and width, inundation depth on the road surface, inundation range, road marking, etc. The disaster prevention / evacuation behavior simulation system according to claim 1, wherein the shortest route search that minimizes the evacuation time and distance is performed based on the observation data.   Based on route information such as departure point, destination, travel speed, departure time, arrival time, total travel distance, total travel time, transit nodes and links, time to safe travel at each node, critical points, etc. The disaster prevention / evacuation behavior simulation system according to claim 1, wherein a temporal element for movement is determined.   The time factor gives the departure time and determines the earliest arrival time to determine the earliest time to reach the destination, and the arrival time to give the latest time to depart The latest departure time for determining the maximum departure time and the limit departure time for determining the limit time in which the destination can be safely reached without departing within the entire situation. 4. Disaster prevention / evacuation behavior simulation system according to 4.

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