JP2006072546A - Chemical substance water system disclosure analysis system - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a chemical substance water system disclosure analysis system for properly displaying necessary data by estimating the disclosure concentration in a water system environment of chemical substances. <P>SOLUTION: This system is configured by integrating a chemical substance discharge load quantity estimation model, a flow rate estimation model and an inter-medium movement model, and narrowing down data to be inputted by a user for carrying estimation processing for estimating disclosure concentration with a small data input without requiring any complicate data input. The input data are defined as discharge movement amount data totaled and disclosed based on the specifications of a chemical substance discharge grasp management promoting method and data related with the physicochemical and biological reactivity of the chemical substances to be acquired from a chemistry guide or commercial database. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2006,JPO&NCIPI

Description

  The present invention relates to a chemical substance aqueous exposure analysis system for estimating the exposure concentration of chemical substances in an aqueous environment.

  The concentration of chemical substances in the environmental medium can also be determined by dividing the chemical flux into the environment by the environmental medium flux. The flux of chemical substances to the environment has been determined, for example, by actually measuring the concentration discharged from the chimney and drain of a factory. The flux of the environmental medium itself is set by simplifying the flow field and reaction field. Has been estimated. In an era when it is not necessary to consider the health risks that humans ingest and the ecological risks that come through environmental pollution, it is sufficient technology to estimate by this simplification. .

  However, since the implementation of the Chemical Substance Emission Control Management Promotion Law from fiscal 2001, it has become obligatory to deliver the amount of chemical substances that are discharged and transferred outside the business office in accordance with business activities. As a result, the public has become able to know the amount of chemical substances released into the environment, and there has been an increasing need to determine the exposure concentration according to the region.

  As a system for diagnosing a regional environmental risk for this type of chemical substance, a “regional diagnostic system” described in Patent Document 1 is known. This regional diagnosis system inputs the point where diagnosis of environmental risk is desired, detects the chemical substance discharge point from the map database including the chemical substance discharge facility, and stores information on the chemical substance discharged from the chemical substance discharge facility. This is a system for calculating the environmental risk at a point where diagnosis is desired by referring to the chemical substance release information database and weighting information on chemical substances.

  As another example, a “chemical substance risk information provision support system” described in Patent Document 2 is known as a system that provides users with appropriate risk information for chemical substances. This chemical substance risk information provision support system is a system that provides appropriate risk information of chemical substances to a user in response to an inquiry about a chemical substance from a user.

According to this system, a question answer pattern which is a combination of each question for the user and an answer to the question is stored in the question answer pattern database, and each question stored in the question answer pattern database 11 is stored in the chemical substance risk information database. The risk information of chemical substances corresponding to the question answer pattern is stored, and the data processing unit checks whether the question answer pattern included in the inquiry from the user is stored in the question answer database. For example, risk information corresponding to the question answer pattern is extracted from the chemical substance risk information database and transmitted to the user terminal.
JP 2003-91616 A JP 2003-85441 A

  By the way, in the conventional system which provides information on chemical substances, there is a problem that information necessary for the user cannot be obtained appropriately.

  In other words, the information on chemical substances provided by remarkably simplified calculations cannot be used not only for information on the amount of chemical substances released and transferred by the PRTR Law, but also for chemical substances that change locally. Even the concentration cannot be estimated, and the calculation result obtained by the conventional technique has a drawback in that it cannot be verified how reliable it is because the physicochemical principle is remarkably simplified.

  As represented by the substances registered in the Chemical Substances Emission Control Management Promotion Law, the environmental concentration observation data is extremely scarce. However, for risk assessment of substances used everywhere, flow fields, reaction fields , And need to utilize emission transfer data.

  In addition, the concentration estimation methods that are mainly used at present are each analyzed by cutting off a certain part of the environment, and they cannot be interchanged either in the concept or in the method. The fact that the algorithm for the concentration estimation method is in an arbitrary form is inconsistent, and the discussion using the results obtained by using each method presents a major problem in the assessment of environmental risk. It becomes.

  However, in order to properly assess the environmental and ecological risks caused by chemical substances that are emitted in the process of production and consumption, it is necessary to estimate the exposure concentration. It is necessary to consider the flow characteristics of environmental media and the reaction characteristics of the field. In other words, it is necessary to improve the spatio-temporal resolution of the chemical concentration field.

  Therefore, in order to construct a computer system that can process a huge amount of data for appropriately assessing environmental and ecological risks caused by chemical substances, that is, in order to be able to handle it, the data of related factors must be electronic. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a technique for that purpose.

  In order for businesses to independently manage chemical substances they handle, it is necessary to know how much exposure concentration they will have depending on their own emissions and transfers. It is necessary to grasp the concentration estimation of the whole river in detail by the discharge of chemical substances from the river. It is desirable to improve the accuracy of exposure analysis at each stage by complementing the measured values.

  Also, in an emergency situation, it is necessary to quickly grasp the expected maximum value, and for such cases, businesses and local governments using probabilistic estimation methods are quickly concerned about water systems where high exposure concentrations are a concern. It is indispensable to estimate the exposure concentration.

  The present invention has been made to solve the above-described problems, and an object of the present invention is to estimate the exposure concentration of chemical substances in an aqueous environment and display necessary data appropriately. It is to provide a chemical water system exposure analysis system.

  In order to achieve the above object, the chemical substance water system exposure analysis system of the present invention integrates a chemical substance discharge load estimation model, a flow rate estimation model, and an inter-medium movement model as a basic configuration, so that the user can By narrowing down the data to be input, a system that can perform an estimation process for estimating the exposure concentration with a small amount of data input without requiring complicated data input is configured. The input data here is aggregated based on the provisions of the Chemical Substance Emission Control Management Promotion Act, and the released chemicals and physicochemical and biological data of chemical substances available in chemical manuals or commercial databases are compiled. This is data relating to reactivity, and these data are stored in advance in the database as default values. The chemical substance discharge load estimation model, the flow rate estimation model, and the inter-medium movement model are integrated, and calculation processing is performed as a material dynamic model.

  Therefore, the present invention provides, as a first aspect, a chemical substance water system exposure analysis system according to the present invention, which is a chemical substance water system exposure analysis system that displays a screen by performing estimation processing of the water system exposure concentration, and displays the exposure concentration. First input means for inputting area information for designating a target area, second input means for inputting the amount of water used nationwide for each purpose of use, and third input means for inputting the wastewater treatment unit / drainage system transfer rate And a fourth input means for inputting the ground removal rate and the sewage treatment removal rate, and a concentration estimation processing means for estimating the exposure concentration at each point based on each data and material dynamic model input from each input means, And display processing means for displaying the exposure concentration at each point estimated by the concentration estimation processing means on a map.

  As a second aspect, the chemical substance aqueous exposure analysis system according to the present invention further displays an estimation processing means for performing a process for simply estimating the aqueous exposure concentration, and numerical data obtained as a result of processing by the estimation processing means. Display means.

  As a third aspect, in the chemical water system exposure analysis system, the input means for inputting the threshold concentration to the ecosystem, the probability estimation processing means for estimating the excess probability with respect to the input threshold concentration, and the excess It is characterized by comprising a risk judgment processing means for estimating ecological risk in the river flow direction based on the probability, and a display processing means for displaying the estimated ecological risk on the screen.

  According to the chemical substance water system exposure analysis system of the present invention, when an estimation of the chemical substance exposure concentration to the water system and the probability of exceeding the population threshold concentration are defined as the ecological risk, the ecological risk can be estimated and evaluated. . In this case, the exposure concentration can be estimated with less data input without requiring complicated data input. In the emission estimation model, the national PRTR reported emission input part, the discharge rate to the water area, the amount of domestic wastewater, the removal rate of sewage treatment, and the part that estimates the discharge, and the discharge is divided by the surface time of the basin. In the substance dynamics model that integrates the chemical substance discharge load estimation model, the flow rate estimation model, and the inter-medium transfer model, the exposure concentration at an arbitrary point is estimated by the input parameters, and the analysis result is edited in the entire basin. Concentration estimation and ecological risk estimation results are displayed with map information.

  Hereinafter, an embodiment for carrying out the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. FIG. 1 is a diagram showing a system configuration of a chemical substance aqueous exposure analysis system according to the present invention. In FIG. 1, 100 is an input unit that receives input operations from a keyboard and mouse, 101 is a keyboard for input operations such as numerical data, 102 is a pointing device mouse for selection input operations, and 103 is a microprocessor ( CPU is a calculation unit composed of a system device such as a memory, 104 is a display unit composed of a display device, for example, and 105 is a database composed of a hard disk device and the like for storing various data. Reference numeral 106 schematically shows a display screen displayed by the display unit.

  In the chemical substance water-based exposure analysis system, the display screen 106 displays the configuration of the subsystems constituting each sub-model of the chemical substance water-based exposure analysis system. It can be started by selecting the icon and analysis processing can be executed individually. Further, by integrating the subsystems and executing the processing, it is possible to perform an estimation process for estimating the exposure concentration with a small amount of data input without requiring complicated data input. FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an initial screen on which system elements constituting the chemical substance aqueous exposure analysis system according to the present invention are displayed.

  The initial screen shown in FIG. 2 displays the configuration of each processing module constituting the system. When performing an exposure analysis, for example, an analysis process is performed by integrating and using a watershed model that physically tracks water flow, a multi-media model, and an emission estimation model. Thereby, the analysis of the data which a user desires can be performed appropriately. For example, the environmental risk is estimated, the scenario subsystem is activated, the scenario is changed, the fluctuation amount of the environmental risk is estimated, and the geographic information system is activated, and the result is displayed together with the geographic information.

  As shown in the screen example of the initial screen in FIG. 2, the chemical water system exposure analysis system analyzes the exposure concentrations of chemical substances in order to analyze six sub-model systems (geographic information system, scenario, emission water system model, It is constructed as a system integrating the watershed model, multimedia model, and risk). Buttons (hexagonal icons) that activate the systems of each submodel are arranged in a circle. In addition, a button (icon) arranged on the right side of the screen is a button that accepts each individual command and activates each corresponding sub-processing module. A button (hexagonal icon) that activates the system for exposure analysis is located in the center.

  Among these, when the scenario, emission estimation model, basin model, multimedia model, and risk sub-model system are activated, an input window screen for accepting each input data is displayed, and a state for accepting data input is established. The system executes a calculation process based on the received data. Further, when the geographic information system is activated by the icon arranged at the upper left, the geographic information system is activated, and processing of the background image on the display screen is performed in order to display the input data and the calculation result.

  As shown in FIG. 2, on the right side of the initial screen 200 displayed when the chemical substance water system exposure analysis system is activated, “setting conditions”, “execution of calculation”, “display of results”, “Turbo” are displayed. -SHANEL ”is an icon that activates the four sub-processing modules, and an icon that instructs the display of the“ operation manual ”as a system support function. In addition, a command button for instructing “end” is provided. By these sub-processing modules, data for analysis processing is received, and analysis processing is executed.

  The processing module that performs the “condition setting” process receives information regarding the substance to be analyzed and information regarding the target basin, and inputs the information to the scenario setting file. Based on the data set in the scenario setting file, the estimation process is performed and the water system exposure analysis is performed. As a system default value, two substances, nonylphenol ethoxylate (NPnEO) and alcohol ethoxylate (AE), are registered as chemical substances to be subjected to an aqueous exposure analysis. As for the water system, basin data of the Tama River, Nikko River, Ishizu River, and Daiseiji River are registered.

  When the processing module of the emission estimation model is activated, when analyzing registered substances, that is, when existing data is set, a selection window is displayed. Since the name and chemical substance name information is displayed in a selectable state, an already set data file can be selected.

  As described above, the initial data (default) of the system includes two chemical substances, nonylphenol ethoxylate (NPnEO) and alcohol ethoxylate (AE). In the water system, Tama River, Nikko River, Ishizu River, Daiseiji Temple Since a total of eight data files are registered in four rivers, analysis using these data can be executed without requiring special data input.

  When analyzing a chemical substance that is not registered in the chemical water system exposure analysis system, that is, when the user performs a water system exposure analysis of a new chemical substance, specify the analysis target river, Enter information on the decomposition route and name of the substance, and then nationally collect data on PRTR reported emissions / transfers, PRTR non-reported emissions (bottom), and PRTR non-reported emissions (non-point sources) Enter the value data. As a result, the system receives these data, performs estimation processing, and performs exposure analysis.

  In order to allocate the PRTR notification / non-notification data to geographically detailed units, the system performs a process of selecting and inputting an allocation index and allocating the emission amount to 1 km grid unit in the target basin. As parameters that govern the behavior of chemical substances, data on domestic wastewater volume, sewage treatment removal rate, physical properties, reaction fraction, and half-life are entered. These data are given file names and stored in the computer as setting condition files.

  In the exposure concentration calculation execution module, the input conditions can be confirmed on the screen, and the basic information of the selected water system region can be illustrated. Further, here, when the sub-model system of the geographic information system is activated, data processing is performed and a map image is displayed on the display screen.

  The displayed map information includes a map of the target basin, elevation, drainage line map, population, sewer penetration rate, land use, total discharge to water area, PRTR point source discharge, and PRTR non-point source discharge. In the graphical display of the above attribute data of the map information, an option is provided for arbitrarily setting the maximum and minimum values of the axes and selecting and displaying the portion to be emphasized.

  For the execution of the calculation process, two types of analysis processing methods, cold start and hot start, are provided (FIG. 4). Cold start means standard analysis (when starting from an appropriate initial value and calculating continuously in time), starting with the initial concentration of chemicals in the entire basin as 0. This is a case where the calculation for 3 years is performed and only the calculation result for the 1st year of the 3rd year is used for risk assessment. This is because the first two years are a period for numerical stability in consideration of the influence of the initial value and the stability of calculation.

  Hot start is an analysis process in which an analysis for an arbitrary period is started from an appropriate initial value (here, the value of the last day of the cold start calculation result). These are selected according to the purpose of analysis by the user depending on the time required for the calculation and the accuracy of the analysis result. Note that the initial value used in the hot start is used only to shorten the time required for the convergence of the calculation, so the accuracy of the calculation result is inferior to that in the cold start.

  The hot start calculation time is shorter than the cold start time calculation period, so that the analysis processing time can be shortened. When cold start is selected, calculation is started by inputting an execution command of the analysis model. When hot start is selected as the analysis method, the system prompts you to select an analysis period. When the selection input for the analysis period is accepted, the process proceeds as in the cold start.

  When the “Result Display” processing module is activated, the distribution of surface area, the direction of river longitudinal direction, analysis of time series data, statistics, runoff characteristics, material balance, ecological risk assessment, Eight save menus are displayed, and a result display process is executed according to the selected menu. Moreover, about each, the amount of water and a chemical substance can be displayed independently.

  When the menu of “Area distribution” is selected, select one item from the ground surface temperature, evapotranspiration, flow rate, and chemical concentration (river water, river bottom mud liquid phase, river bottom mud solid phase) Then, the input of the attribute data is accepted and the result is displayed. When the “Show river longitudinal direction” menu is selected, any of river water, river bottom mud liquid phase, river bottom mud solid phase can be selected, and the percentile value (5th percentile value, 25th percentile value, 50% A selection input of a percentile value, a 75th percentile value, and a 95th percentile value is received, and the result is displayed.

  When the menu of “Analysis of time series data” is selected, a point of the analysis target water system can be selected on the display screen, and the time series data at that point can be displayed. Further, when the “statistics” menu is selected, a point selection input is accepted, and a process for obtaining a geometric mean and a geometric standard deviation based on time-series data at the selected point is performed.

  When the “Outflow Characteristics” menu is selected, a point selection input is accepted, and a regression coefficient is obtained by regression analysis between the chemical substance load and flow rate based on the time-series data at the selected point. I do. When the “Mass Balance” menu is selected, the calculation result is read, and the process of where and how much chemical substances are put into the basin is performed. When the “Ecological risk assessment” menu is selected, an input of a threshold concentration is accepted and processing for obtaining an excess probability is performed. When the “Save” menu is selected, it accepts input of period and point and saves it as a csv file.

  When evaluating in a short time, the simple analysis processing module (Turbo-SHANEL) is activated and the concentration estimation processing is simply analyzed. In this case, the user interface screen (FIG. 2) is activated by a “Turbo-SHANEL” button. In the processing of the simple analysis processing module, if you input PRTR national emission data, basin area, degree of urbanization, organic carbon water distribution coefficient of chemical substances, and half-life of river water, the probability of flow rate will be described later. The water exposure concentration is processed by Monte Carlo simulation for the dynamic fluctuation characteristics.

  FIG. 3 is a system configuration diagram illustrating the system configuration of the main part of the chemical substance aqueous exposure analysis system according to the present invention. As shown in FIG. 3, the system configuration mainly includes an input processing unit 110, an exposure analysis processing unit 120, a display output processing unit 130, and each part of a database 140 that stores data for analysis by each model. Has been.

  The input processing unit 110, the exposure analysis processing unit 120, and the display output processing unit 130 are provided with user interface processing units 111, 121, and 131, respectively, and are selected via the user interface processing units 111, 121, and 131. A process for receiving an input for giving an instruction to the system such as an input, an instruction input, and a data input is performed, and an unprocessed module corresponding to the input instruction is activated. These user interface processing units 111, 121, and 131 may be combined into one system.

  In this case, for example, when the estimation processing of the exposure concentration of the aqueous system is performed and displayed on the screen, the input processing unit 110 uses the user interface processing unit 111 to specify the region information that specifies the region for which the exposure concentration is to be displayed. Enter the amount of water used for each country of use, enter the wastewater treatment unit and drainage system transfer rate, and enter the land removal rate and sewage treatment removal rate. Based on these input data, the exposure analysis processing unit 120 activates a processing module for concentration estimation processing, refers to various data such as models and statistical data stored in the database 140, and is input. Estimate the exposure concentration at each point based on each data and substance dynamic model. The display output processing unit 130 displays the exposure concentration at each point estimated by the exposure analysis processing unit 120 on a map. The display output processing unit 130 activates a result display processing processing module, accepts each display menu via the user interface processing unit 131, and analyzes the display mode desired by the user. Is displayed.

  Simplified analysis can be performed for the case where the analysis processing is advanced rapidly and the analysis result is desired to be obtained quickly when performing the estimation processing of the exposure concentration of the aqueous system and displaying it on the screen. In this case, the exposure analysis processing unit 120 activates a processing module for simple concentration estimation processing, refers to the data stored in the database 140, and based on each input data and substance dynamic model, the exposure concentration Is simply estimated. In this case, the display output processing unit 130 displays the analyzed result as numerical data.

  When evaluating the ecological risk, the input processing unit 110 inputs a threshold concentration for the ecosystem. In this case, the exposure analysis processing unit 120 activates the probability estimation processing module, refers to the data stored in the database 140, estimates the excess probability for the input threshold concentration, and determines the risk. Start the processing module of processing and estimate ecological risk in the river flow direction based on the excess probability. The display output processing unit 130 displays the estimated ecological risk on the screen.

  Thus, in the chemical substance water system exposure analysis system, the exposure concentration of the chemical substance in the water system environment is estimated through the user interface processing units 111, 121, and 131 according to the user's request and appropriately required. Process to display data.

  FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing a schematic processing flow of the operation procedure of the user who uses the chemical substance aqueous exposure analysis system according to the present invention. Referring to FIG. 4, the processing procedure of the operation in the user will be described. Whether the user performs analysis processing from the processing flow on the right side (simple concentration estimation processing) depending on whether or not the detailed analysis of the water system exposure analysis is performed. Also, analysis processing is performed from the processing flow on the left side (detailed concentration estimation processing).

  When performing simple analysis, operation is performed from the processing flow on the right side. In this case, as described above, a processing module (Turbo-SHANEL) that performs a simple concentration estimation process is started, and PRTR nationwide emission, basin area, urbanization rate, and physical property data are input (already input) If so, select) and obtain the calculation results of the lower limit and upper limit numerical data for the flow rate and the lower limit and upper limit numerical data for the concentration.

  Further, when performing a detailed analysis, an operation is performed according to the processing flow on the left side. First, data for setting conditions is input, and a data file for analysis processing is created. When creating a new data file, select the water system, select the substance, enter the emission amount, etc., enter the parameters, save the data of the setting conditions, and create a new data file. To use an existing data file, open the file stored in the database and select the data file to be used for detailed analysis.

  Subsequently, a calculation condition is input, and an analysis process is performed by instructing execution of the calculation. In this case, depending on whether or not the analysis is for a long period of time, select whether to start cold or hot start as described above, refer to the file of the initial value file according to each, calculation processing To obtain a calculation result file. Then, to display the calculation results, start the processing module, based on the calculation results, the surface distribution, the river longitudinal direction, time series data analysis, statistics, runoff characteristics, material balance, The results are displayed using the 8 ecological risk assessment and storage menus.

  FIG. 5 shows an overall processing flow of the exposure analysis processing centering on the data input / output structure. As input data, various types of data including data relating to environmental fields and data relating to substances are input. In the processing flow of FIG. 5, input data is represented by arrows pointing in the horizontal direction along the flow lines of the vertical processing. As an output, the 1 km grid interval and the daily average concentration of the analysis target field can be estimated, and the relationship between the chemical substance emission source and the chemical substance concentration in the water receiving area can be visually confirmed.

  In chemical water system exposure analysis system, it is possible to estimate time series data of chemical substance exposure concentration at a specific point, which makes it possible to estimate areas and times with relatively high risk, It is possible to support the formulation of reduction measures considering the life history of aquatic organisms.

  In order to be able to do this, for example, in order to estimate emissions by the emission estimation model indicated by the wavy line in FIG. 5, national PRTR reported emissions, removal rates to water areas, domestic wastewater, Enter each data of sewage treatment removal rate. Input data necessary for other analysis and perform analysis.

  Subsequently, the exposure concentration in water can be obtained by inputting the parameters of the substance kinetic model and solving the substance kinetic model simultaneously for the flow rate estimation result in the basin obtained separately by the runoff analysis.

  Moreover, the excess probability with respect to the threshold density | concentration with respect to a population can be calculated | required by inputting the threshold value of an ecological risk.

The amount of chemical substances used is converted into discharge loads, and the environmental load of chemical substances is assigned according to the sewerage maintenance rate. Chemical emissions Out _ij in the grid ij is obtained by the following equation (1). Further, chemical concentration C _ij in the grid ij is obtained by the following equation (2).

Out _ij = A _ij × B _ij × In _ij (1)
here,
A _ij : Amount of chemical substance used in grid ij B _ij : A chemical substance removal rate at the use site in grid ij In _ij : A removal rate considering the sewerage maintenance rate in grid ij

C _ij = f (Transport _ij , Transfer _ij , Transformation _ij , Out _ij ) (2)
here,
f (w, x, y, z): function for estimating chemical substance concentration (convection diffusion equation)
Transport _ij : Media transport data in grid ij
Transfer _ij : Data of movement between media in grid ij
Transformation _ij : In-medium decomposition rate parameter in grid ij

For the analysis by the above formulas (1) and (2), the affinity of the chemical substance with the environmental medium is reflected in the physical properties to parameterize the governing factors of the chemical substance's behavior in the environment, In order to estimate the behavior in the suspended state, the advection-diffusion equation for suspended substances, chemical substances, and the bottom mud stream are simultaneously solved.

  In the processing module that executes this process, after the chemical substance enters the water system, the adsorbed part in the suspended state undergoes the transport / regression process to the bottom mud layer through the interaction with the dissolved and suspended substance. As the dissolved state undergoes the process of advection and decomposition, each grid analyzes the flow down and the concentration changes.

  The water used as the environmental transport medium for chemical substances is the daily average estimated for each grid in the analysis field because the surface runoff and intermediate runoff excluding transpiration and underground infiltration are used for concentration estimation. The concentration is estimated by dividing the chemical discharge load by the flow rate.

  In the chemical water system exposure analysis system, an analysis target basin is set, and estimation calculation is performed in the order of flow rate, discharge amount, and exposure concentration. In order to estimate the exposure concentration of chemical substances, as shown in FIG. 5, the estimation of the load by the chemical emission estimation model, the estimation of the flow rate by the basin model, the multi-media model of the environment, and the estimation result are obtained from the geographic information system. The above system is integrated and implemented until the scenario operation and exposure concentration are converted to risk.

  In estimating the flow rate, a [basin model] as shown in FIG. 10 is used. Using this basin model, the water balance is analyzed reflecting the physical structure of the atmosphere, the ground surface, and underground. In estimating emissions, we use data from the Chemical Substances Emissions Management and Promotion Act.

  Furthermore, the probability of excess is estimated based on a reference concentration that indicates the ecological impact determined separately from the environmental exposure concentration obtained. In addition, the system configuration is such that changes in emissions, reduction effects, and the like can be dealt with by changing the parameters of the model as needed using the [Scenario] setting data file. In addition, a system that is useful for risk communication can be obtained by linking with the [Geographic Information System] and displaying more realistically.

  FIG. 6 is a diagram showing a flow of heat balance analysis in the chemical substance water system exposure analysis system, and FIG. 7 is a conceptual diagram of a model of ground surface flow and groundwater flow model used for flow rate estimation in the chemical substance water system exposure analysis system. FIG.

  Regarding the flow rate estimation process, first, heat balance analysis is performed to estimate the amount of evapotranspiration, and the flow rate is estimated from the balance between the obtained amount of evapotranspiration and precipitation. The heat balance analysis is performed by a heat balance analysis flow as shown in FIG. In addition, the flow rate is estimated by analysis using a model as shown in FIG. FIG. 7 shows a conceptual diagram of flow rate estimation.

  Emissions are estimated based on PRTR point source and non-point source emission data. Point source emissions are assumed to be composed of domestic wastewater, urban wastewater, and business wastewater. FIG. 8 and FIG. 9 show the flow of estimation of emission amounts of point sources and non-point sources based on PRTR data.

  The exposure concentration estimation process is obtained by the above-described equations (1) and (2) based on the estimated flow rate and discharge amount. The modeling of the dynamics between the environmental media for estimating the exposure concentration is performed by a model as shown in FIG.

  In order to show the validity of the estimation result of the exposure concentration, the load outflow characteristic is regressed by the power of the flow rate, the regression coefficient is identified, and the physical property parameter is verified from the coefficient. Based on the accumulated knowledge of environmental science so far, when the regression coefficient value is 1 or more, it is a runoff type in rainy weather, and when the regression coefficient is less than 1, it is a substance that behaves as a concentration dilution type when the flow rate increases. Can be classified.

In addition, the breakdown of the behavior is calculated by the following formula to determine the disappearing flux outside the system, and the behavior is characterized by the ratio of the values of each term on the right side. The mass balance equation is defined as follows and the flow rate is verified.

Accumulated amount in system = Input amount in system-Outflow amount by transportation-Decomposition amount in system (3)
Outflow rate = (Outflow from system-amount of degradation in system) / Input into system (4)

  On the other hand, detailed data as described above cannot be prepared, but in order to quickly estimate the average density in fine weather, analysis processing by a simple calculation processing module (simple density estimation processing module) is performed.

  FIG. 11 is a first flowchart showing a simplified calculation flow in the chemical substance water exposure analysis system, and FIG. 12 is a second flowchart showing a simplified calculation flow in the chemical substance water exposure analysis system.

In the analysis processing by the simple calculation processing module, as shown in FIG. 11 and FIG. 12, the user selects the name of the water system to be analyzed (step S11), the basin area of the water area to be analyzed (step S13), and the substance of the chemical substance to be analyzed. Name (step S13), amount of target chemical substance released into water area, water discharge nationwide value (step S14), degree of urbanization (step S15), adsorption equilibrium constant on organic carbon (step S16), chemical substance Only the half-life in water (step S17) is input, the flow distribution is estimated from the relational expression between the basin area and the flow, a random number is generated, and the concentration is estimated by the following equation. This process is repeated 10,000 times as a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the concentration of chemical substances in water in fine weather. The chemical substance concentration C ^turbo _ij is obtained by the following equations (5) and (6).

Q = (Q _ave , Q _sdev ) (6)

here,
L: discharge amount of chemical substance to the entire basin ds ₁ : dissolved state ratio ds ₂ : remaining rate in dissolved state Q _ave : average value of flow rate Q _sdev : standard deviation of flow rate

  Next, an outline of a processing result obtained by performing an exposure analysis by the chemical substance water-based exposure analysis system according to the present invention will be described. FIG. 13 to FIG. 22 show the results of processing for performing exposure analysis by the chemical substance water-based exposure analysis system. FIG. 13 shows the estimation result of the flow rate in the Tamagawa River basin, and FIG. 14 shows the estimation result of the discharge amount of nonylphenol ethoxylate of the chemical substance to the land in the Tamagawa River basin.

  FIG. 15 is a diagram showing an estimation result of discharge amount from a sewage treatment plant of nonylphenol ethoxylate in the Tamagawa River basin. In FIG. 16, the estimation result of the river water exposure density | concentration of nonylphenol ethoxylate is shown. FIG. 17 shows the estimation result of the 95th percentile of the exposure concentration of nonylphenol ethoxylate to river water.

FIG. 18 shows the probability that the concentration of nonylphenol ethoxylate in river water exceeds 1 mg / m ³ , and FIG. 19 shows the time-series change in the exposure concentration of nonylphenol ethoxylate in river water. FIG. 20 shows the results of load outflow characteristics of nonylphenol ethoxylate in the rural Chofu weir in the Tamagawa River basin. FIG. 21 shows the mass balance and flow rate of nonylphenol ethoxylate in the Denenchofu dam in the Tamagawa River basin, and FIG. 22 shows the estimation result by the simple concentration estimation processing module “TURBO-SHANEL”.

  Companies are required to voluntarily manage chemical substances that are concerned about risks under the Chemical Substances Emission Control Management Promotion Act. According to the chemical substance water system exposure analysis system of the present invention, grasping the current state of chemical substances at business establishments, predicting the effects of introducing management measures, examining measures for improving wastewater treatment facilities at business establishments, or the entire basin Therefore, it is possible to study improvement measures at the sewage treatment plant. It is useful for water system risk management in national and local governments, especially when examining and supplementing monitoring data. Furthermore, it can also be used as a tool in aspects such as chemical risk assessment and risk management education guidance in educational institutions.

  In addition, when chemical production companies, processing companies, and user companies carry out self-management of their products, they can grasp how much the emission amount contributes to the environmental concentration. The department responsible for chemical substance management in the local government supplements the observation value and supports the task of estimating the risk. It can be used as support software when an educational institution educates chemical risk students and citizens.

  When the user cannot take time to prepare the input data, the simplified concentration estimation processing module can be used to estimate the concentration in fine weather. If detailed analysis is possible, exposure to chemical substances in water By using the analysis system, exposure analysis with high spatial and temporal accuracy can be performed.

It is a figure which shows the system configuration | structure of the chemical substance water system exposure analysis system by this invention. It is a figure which shows the initial screen by which the system element which comprises the chemical substance water system exposure analysis system by this invention was displayed. It is a system configuration figure explaining the system configuration of the principal part of the chemical substance water system exposure analysis system by the present invention. It is a flowchart which shows the general | schematic process flow of the process sequence of operation in the user who utilizes the chemical substance water system exposure analysis system which concerns on this invention. The overall processing flow of the exposure analysis process centering on the data input / output structure is shown. It is a figure which shows the flow of the heat balance analysis in a chemical substance water system exposure analysis system. It is a figure which shows the conceptual diagram of the model of the ground surface flow and the groundwater flow used for the flow volume estimation in the chemical substance water system exposure analysis system. It is a figure which shows the flow of the emission estimation of a point source based on the data submitted by the chemical substance discharge grasp promotion method in a chemical substance water system exposure analysis system. It is a figure which shows the flow of the emission estimation of non-point sources based on the data submitted by the chemical substance discharge grasp promotion method in the chemical substance water system exposure analysis system. It is a figure which shows modeling of the chemical substance dynamics between environmental media in a chemical substance water system exposure analysis system. It is a 1st flowchart which shows the flow of the simple calculation in a chemical substance water system exposure analysis system. It is a 2nd flowchart which shows the flow of the simple calculation in a chemical substance water system exposure analysis system. It is a figure which shows the estimation result of the flow volume of Tama River basin by a chemical substance water system exposure analysis system. It is a figure which shows the estimation result of the discharge amount of nonylphenol ethoxylate from the land in the Tamagawa basin by the chemical substance water system exposure analysis system. It is a figure which shows the estimation result of the discharge amount of nonyl phenol ethoxylate from the sewage treatment plant located in the Tamagawa basin of the Tamagawa basin by the chemical substance water system exposure analysis system. It is a figure which shows the estimation result of the nonylphenol ethoxylate density | concentration in the water of Tamagawa basin by the chemical substance water system exposure analysis system. It is a figure which shows the estimation result of the 95th percentile of the river water density | concentration of nonylphenol ethoxylate by the chemical substance water system exposure analysis system. It is a figure which shows the probability which exceeds 1 mg / m < ³ > of the river water density | concentration of nonyl phenol ethoxylate by a chemical substance water-type exposure analysis system. It is a figure which shows the time-sequential change of the river water density | concentration of nonylphenol ethoxylate by the chemical substance water system exposure analysis system. It is a figure which shows the result of the load outflow characteristic of nonylphenol ethoxylate in the Denenchofu dam of Tamagawa basin by a chemical substance water system exposure analysis system. It is a figure which shows the material balance and flow rate of nonylphenol ethoxylate in the Denenchofu dam of the Tamagawa basin by the chemical substance water system exposure analysis system. It is a figure which shows the example of a screen which displays the result of the simple calculation of nonylphenol ethoxylate in the Denenchofu dam of the Tamagawa basin by the simple concentration estimation processing module.

Claims (3)

It is a chemical water system exposure analysis system that performs estimation processing of the water system exposure concentration and displays it on the screen.
A first input means for inputting area information for designating an area for display of exposure concentration;
A second input means for inputting the amount of water used nationwide by application;
A third input means for inputting a wastewater treatment unit and a drainage system transfer rate;
A fourth input means for inputting a ground removal rate and a sewage treatment removal rate;
Concentration estimation processing means for estimating the exposure concentration at each point based on each data and substance dynamic model input from each input means;
A chemical water system exposure analysis system comprising: display processing means for displaying the exposure concentration at each point estimated by the concentration estimation processing means on a map. The chemical substance water-based exposure analysis system according to claim 1, further comprising:
An estimation processing means for performing a process for simply estimating an aqueous exposure concentration;
A chemical water system exposure analysis system comprising: display means for displaying numerical data obtained as a result of processing by the estimation processing means. The chemical substance water-based exposure analysis system according to claim 1, further comprising:
An input means for inputting a threshold concentration to the ecosystem;
A probability estimation processing means for estimating an excess probability for the input threshold concentration;
Risk judgment processing means for estimating ecological risk in the direction of river flow based on the excess probability,
A chemical water system exposure analysis system comprising display processing means for displaying the estimated ecological risk on a screen.