JP2005275559A - System for formulating energy production and supply plan - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a system for formulating a production line-based or time-based energy production and supply plan for energy supply from a plurality of energy production lines to a plurality of delivery points through a pipe network. <P>SOLUTION: A supply pattern generation means 11 generates a plurality of supply patterns of time-based production amount for every production line based on result data of time-based production amount in each energy production line in a plurality of similar days selected based on characteristic information of the day of supply and a total amount demanded prediction value for one day. An optimum supply pattern delivery means extracts a supply pattern where a production cost total value calculated by a production cost calculation means 13 is minimized from supply patterns for which a pressure transition determination means 12 determines that the pressure transition of a predetermined node on a pipe network derived by use of a pipe network non-steady simulator is within an operation pressure range. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2006,JPO&NCIPI

Description

  The present invention provides an energy production and supply plan that supports the creation of an energy production and supply plan for each production line and hour by which a plurality of energy production lines supply energy to a plurality of payout bases via a conduit network by computer processing. Regarding the creation system.

  As the most common form in which energy produced in a plurality of energy production lines is supplied to a plurality of dispensing bases via a conduit network, city gas (referred to as gas as appropriate) is assumed. Here, the production amount of the gas produced in the plurality of production lines is determined by the consumption amount of the consumer, and when the consumption amount of the consumer fluctuates, the production amount of each production line also fluctuates accordingly. The reason for this variation is that so-called pressure control (PC) operation is performed in which the pressure of the gas supply line from each production line to the consumer is adjusted to be constant. Therefore, when the consumer's consumption increases and the pressure decreases, the supply amount from each production line is immediately increased to adjust the pressure to be constant.

  The pressure of the gas supply line is divided between each production line and the customer (supply point) via high pressure, medium pressure, and low pressure conduit networks and high pressure and medium pressure regulators (governors). The pressure is reduced. Here, the high-pressure conduit network has a pressure of 1 MPa (in order to transport gas produced in a production line at a remote location from the customer for a long distance and in case the gas supply from each production line is stopped. It is kept at an extremely high pressure (megapascal) or higher. The specific operation pressure of the high-pressure conduit is set within an appropriate range according to the demand, owned equipment, and the like.

FIG. 2 is a block diagram schematically showing the gas supply system 100 from each production line to the consumer. In FIG. 2, first to fourth production lines 101 to 104 produce gas and deliver the gas to the high-pressure conduit network 110 with delivery amounts S1 to S4 (Nm ³ / h), respectively. The delivered gas is reduced in pressure by a plurality of high-pressure governors 105 to 108 on the conduit network 110, discharged to the intermediate-pressure conduit network 120, and further reduced in pressure from the intermediate-pressure conduit network 120 to be finally in demand. To a consumer (not shown) and consumed at a demand amount Z (Nm ³ / h). Therefore, the total amount of payouts to be paid out to the medium pressure conduit network 120 by the high pressure governors 105 to 108 is the demand amount Z.

In addition, a holder 130 is installed at one or more points in the vicinity of the installation locations of the high pressure governors 105 to 108 on the high pressure conduit network 110, and gas can be accumulated and released by opening and closing the valves. it can. With this function, when the consumer's consumption increases, the accumulated gas is released, and when the consumer's consumption decreases, the surplus gas is accumulated to mitigate the effects of sudden fluctuations in the consumer's consumption. To do. The holder 130 releases the gas with the discharge amount H (Nm ³ / h), and accumulates the gas when the value is negative. A similar gas consumption fluctuation adjustment function also includes the high-pressure conduit network 110 itself. This is because there is a line pack defined by the amount of gas that is stored under a given pressure in the entire geometric volume of the conduit network 110. By using the line pack, gas is supplied to the medium pressure conduit network 120 at a supply amount L (Nm ³ / h), and when the value is negative, the gas can be accumulated. Accumulation or supply of line packs means that the pressure in the high pressure conduit network 110 will increase or decrease, where the pressure in the conduit network 110 is not a constant value but a constant operating pressure range. Operation to keep in. Therefore, if the demand amount fluctuates, the pressure of the conduit network 110 fluctuates, and the line pack is supplied or accumulated, so that the fluctuation amount of the gas consumption can be absorbed within the operating pressure range. it can.

Here, the delivery amounts S1 to S4 (Nm ³ / h) from each production line, the discharge amount H (Nm ³ / h) of the holder 130, the line pack supply amount L (Nm ³ / h), and the medium pressure conduit network The relationship of the payout amount Z (Nm ³ / h) to 120 is expressed by the following formula 1.

(Equation 1)
S1 + S2 + S3 + S4 + H + L = Z

  However, although it is theoretically possible to control the pressure of the conduit network 110 to be constant by the holder 130 and the line pack, the number of the holders 130 is limited, and the actual number of the holder 130 and the line pack is limited. Since the total geometric volume is also relatively small, it is not practical to perform control to keep the pressure constant. Therefore, in order to adjust the pressure of the conduit network 110 to be constant or within the operating pressure range, the supply amount from each production line (corresponding to the fluctuation of the demand amount (dispensing amount Z to the conduit network 120 of medium pressure)) ( S1 + S2 + S3 + S4) needs to be adjusted.

  However, if the supply amount or the production amount of each production line varies, the production cost corresponding to the production amount also varies. Here, in order to explain the production cost in each production line, the gas production process will be outlined.

  First, the liquefied LNG taken out from the storage LNG tank by the LNG pump is vaporized and supplied by a vaporizer (for example, an open rack type vaporizer) using seawater pumped up by the seawater pump. The LNG gas vaporized in the LNG tank is supplied after being compressed by a BOG compressor. At this time, it may be further compressed by a BOG booster and supplied. The LNG gas supplied in this way is mixed with LPG separately taken out from the LPG tank by the LPG pump to adjust the amount of heat, and sent as city gas to the high-pressure conduit network. Here, it is normal that a plurality of production lines for sending out gas are provided for each production site, and there are cases where the presence or absence of heat amount adjustment and the delivery calorie value are different for each production line. .

  In the gas production process, power costs such as various pumps and compressors, heat adjustment costs, steam costs, water costs, and the like are intricately intertwined to determine gas production costs corresponding to the production amounts. For example, since a plurality of LNG pumps are usually provided and are sequentially activated as necessary, the operating cost varies depending on the number of activated units, that is, the delivery amount. As described above, the gas production cost varies depending on the amount of production.

  In the above, the actual supply amount (S1 + S2 + S3 + S4) from each production line does not immediately respond to fluctuations in demand in real time, but a 24-hour hourly production supply plan for the production supply day is created in advance. Gas supply from each production line is performed based on the production supply plan. For example, as disclosed in Patent Document 1 below, the total daily demand is predicted, the daily total demand predicted value is satisfied, and the above-described gas production cost is optimized. In addition, a production supply plan for each production line and each hour is created.

  Hereinafter, a conventional procedure for creating a production supply plan for each production line and each time will be described with reference to the flowchart of FIG.

  Based on the weather forecast (temperature, water temperature, weather, etc.) on the day of manufacturing supply and the characteristics information such as the day of the week and the actual demand data of the total demand on a similar day in the past, The daily total demand forecast value Z is derived (step # 100). Here, for example, one day is defined as 24 hours from 7 am on the current day to 7 am on the next day.

  Next, specify the most recent similar date whose characteristics information is similar to the date of manufacture supply date, and the actual data of the hourly payout amount from each high pressure governor on the similar date is obtained from each high pressure governor on the date of manufacture supply. Temporarily determined as hourly payout amount Z0 (i, j) (step # 101). Here, the argument i (i = 1 to 24) represents each time zone, for example, i = 1 is 7am to 8am on the day, and i = 24 is 6am to 7am on the next day. Each hour corresponds. The argument j represents the high pressure governor distinction.

  If it is difficult to determine the hourly payout amount Z0 (i, j) on one similar day, the production supply date is set, for example, from 7:00 am to 5:00 pm on that day. Divide into 3 hours from 5:00 pm to 10:00 pm, from 10:00 pm on the day to 7:00 am on the next day, select similar days for each time section, and from each high pressure governor on each similar day Actual data of hourly payout amount is provisionally determined as hourly payout amount Z0 (i, j) from each high-pressure governor on the day of manufacture and supply (step # 101 ').

  Next, the hourly payout amount so that the actual data of the hourly production amount on the similar day and the hourly total amount Z0 (i, j) of each temporarily determined high pressure governor coincide. Z0 (i, j) is corrected, and further, the corrected daily total amount is corrected so as to match the daily total demand amount predicted value Z to obtain the hourly payout amount Z1 (i, j). (Step # 102). Here, in the first correction, the difference between the hourly manufacturing amount actual data of the similar day and the hourly total amount of the hourly payout amount Z0 (i, j) is used as the hourly payout amount Z0 (i, j). Proportional distribution by high-pressure governor and adding to the hourly payout amount Z0 (i, j), with subsequent correction, dividing the daily total demand forecast value Z by the total production volume on the similar day Is multiplied by the total daily demand forecast value Z.

  Next, the daily total demand forecast value Z is decomposed for each production line and every hour based on the actual production data of the hourly production quantity for each production line on the same day, and the hourly production for each production line. A quantity prediction value S (i, k) is provisionally determined (step # 103). Here, the argument k represents the distinction between production lines. As described above, since the gas production cost fluctuates from production line to production line and time zone, the gas production cost is reduced by time so that the total gas production cost corresponding to the production amount of each production line is minimized at each hour. A temporary production amount predicted value S (i, k) for each production line is provisionally determined by a trial and error method such as distributing production amounts in order from a simple production line.

  Next, the manufacturing of each main node of the high-pressure conduit network is performed using the hourly payout amount Z1 (i, j) corrected in step # 102 and the temporarily determined hourly manufacturing amount predicted value S (i, k) as input conditions. A pressure transition for 24 hours on the supply day is derived by simulation using a conduit network transient response analysis tool (step # 104). Here, the pipe network transient response analysis tool is a tool for deriving the transient response of the compressible fluid in the high-pressure gas pipeline network by unsteady analysis. It is assumed that the high-pressure conduit network to be simulated is modeled in advance including the holder.

  Next, it is confirmed whether the pressure transition obtained in step # 104 is within a predetermined operating pressure range (step # 105). Here, when the pressure transition is outside the operating pressure range, the temporarily determined production amount predicted value S (i, k) for each production line is changed (step # 106). Here, in the change of the hourly production amount prediction value S (i, k), adjustment is performed so that the total gas production cost corresponding to the production amount of each production line is minimized at each time. Then, the derivation of the pressure transition in step # 104 and the confirmation in step # 105 are repeated until the pressure transition falls within the predetermined operating pressure range.

  In Step # 105, when it is confirmed that the pressure transition is within the predetermined operating pressure range, the production supply is performed based on the hourly production amount predicted value S (i, k) for each production line that has been provisionally determined or changed. An hourly production supply plan for each production line for 24 hours on the day is created (step # 107).

  On the date of manufacture and supply, on the basis of the hourly manufacture and supply plan for each production line, the production amount change command and execution monitoring for each production line are performed for each manufacturing site (step # 108).

  After manufacturing supply based on the hourly production supply plan for each production line created on the day of production supply date, the hourly total production amount forecast value S (i) and the actual data of hourly total demand ( If the difference from the actual data of the hourly payout amount from each high pressure governor exceeds a predetermined value (step # 109), the manufacturing is started from step # 101 in order to review the manufacturing supply plan. Run supply planning again.

Further, it is determined whether or not the pressure measurement value at a predetermined point on the high-pressure conduit network exceeds a predetermined operating pressure range (step # 110). A production amount change command is issued so that the pressure at the point falls within the operating pressure range (step # 111), and production and supply plan creation is executed again from step # 101.
JP 2002-334138 A

  However, in the above-described conventional production line-by-hour and hour-by-hour production supply plan preparation methods, in some cases, conflicting efficiency conditions for optimizing gas production costs are arranged by prioritization based on their effects. Since the amount of production for each production line that would be a minimum cost was calculated by trial and error, several hours were required for provisional determination or change of the hourly production amount predicted value S (i, k) for each production line in step # 103. It was necessary.

  In addition, operations have become complicated due to several modifications of factory facilities, operational changes, and efficiency conditions for optimizing gas production costs, and this has spurred the number of trials and errors. Many of these tasks involved judgment from experience, and there were many cases where unified results could not be obtained.

  On the other hand, the review of the manufacturing supply plan during operation is carried out when the deviation between the predicted value and the actual value for a certain time exceeds a predetermined amount, but trial and error is required to satisfy the efficiency improvement condition as described above. It took a long time, and the work required skill.

  Therefore, based on the separately estimated daily demand, simplification of similar days based on weather conditions such as temperature and water temperature is simplified, and each high pressure is calculated by correcting the hourly discharge amount (high pressure governor load) from each high pressure governor. A production line that satisfies the operating pressure range of the high-pressure conduit network for the preceding 24 hours by automating the determination of hourly payout amount of the governor, changing the operation of the factory, and inputting priorities for various efficiency improvement conditions. There has been a demand for a system that can quickly and automatically calculate the amount of production per hour and create a production supply plan.

  The present invention has been made in view of the above-described problems, and an object of the present invention is to solve the above-described problems and allow a plurality of energy production lines to supply energy to a plurality of payout bases via a conduit network. It is an object of the present invention to provide an energy production and supply plan creation system capable of automatically creating an energy production and supply plan for each production line and hour by computer processing.

  In order to achieve this object, the first feature of the energy production and supply planning system according to the present invention is that each energy production line supplies energy to a plurality of payout bases via a conduit network. An energy production and supply plan creation system that supports the creation of hourly energy production and supply plans by computer calculation processing, and separately stores an actual result database that stores past actual hourly production amount data of each energy production line, and Input means for receiving an input of the predicted daily total demand amount on the predicted supply day, and one or more similar days are selected based on the characteristic information on the supply day, and each energy production on each selected similar day The energy on the supply day based on the actual production data of the hourly production volume in the line and the daily total demand forecast value Supply pattern generation means for generating a plurality of supply patterns consisting of hourly production quantities for each production line, and accepts input of hourly load prediction values at the respective payout bases on the supply day predicted separately; Using the hourly production amount for each energy production line and the hourly load prediction value at each payout base as input conditions, the pressure transition of one or more predetermined nodes of the conduit network for each pattern is determined as a predetermined non-conducting network. Pressure transition determination means that is derived using a steady-state simulator and determines whether the derived pressure transition is within a predetermined operating pressure range; and each energy production based on the hourly production amount for each energy production line The manufacturing cost calculation means for calculating the manufacturing cost of the line and the total manufacturing cost, and the pressure transition determination means Optimal supply pattern derivation means for extracting a supply pattern that minimizes the total manufacturing cost value calculated by the manufacturing cost calculation means from the supply patterns determined that the pressure transition is within a predetermined operating pressure range. And is provided with.

  According to the first characteristic configuration of the energy production and supply plan creation system, the supply pattern generation means determines the hourly production amount in each energy production line selected on the basis of the characteristic information on the supply day. The actual data is corrected so as to match the inputted daily total demand forecast value, and the hourly production quantity for each energy production line of a plurality of patterns is generated. Here, as the production amount by hour (supply pattern) for each energy production line, it is created based on actual data of one or more similar days with similar characteristic information (meteorological conditions and day of the week) on the day of supply. A plurality (for example, 100 to 10000) of supply patterns with high possibility of confirming whether the pressure transition to be executed is within the operation pressure range or the manufacturing cost is optimized can be derived. In addition, if a plurality of supply patterns are generated at random, a considerable number of supply patterns are required to increase the possibility of optimizing the manufacturing cost. Since it takes time to simulate the pressure transition, it takes a lot of time to search for the optimum solution. However, such inconvenience can be avoided by generating a plurality of supply patterns from different similar dates. The number of supply patterns and the number of similar days do not need to match. Further, the supply with the minimum manufacturing cost calculated by the manufacturing cost calculating means is minimized from the supply patterns determined by the optimum supply pattern deriving means by the pressure transition determining means as being within the predetermined operating pressure range. Since the pattern is extracted, a manufacturing supply plan that satisfies the operating pressure range and minimizes the manufacturing cost can be automatically entered by inputting the daily total demand forecast value on the supply day and the hourly load forecast value at each payout base. Can be created.

  Therefore, the process of creating hourly production quantities for each energy production line is automated to meet the efficiency requirements for optimizing the production cost, which previously required skill and a long time. The plan can be created with high accuracy and simplicity.

  In the present invention, the term “by hour” is not particularly limited to one hour unit, and may be, for example, every 30 minutes or every two hours.

  In the second feature configuration, in addition to the first feature configuration, the supply pattern generation unit includes the actual production data of the hourly production amount in each energy production line of the selected one or more similar dates. When generating a plurality of first generation supply patterns based on the daily total demand forecast value and generating a plurality of new generation supply patterns after the second generation using a genetic algorithm technique, The total manufacturing cost calculated by the manufacturing cost calculating unit from among the plurality of supply patterns one generation before the pressure transition determining unit determining that the pressure transition is within the predetermined operating pressure range. Multiple patterns are extracted in order from the smallest value, and multiple generation patterns are generated based on the extracted supply pattern of the previous generation. There to that point.

  According to the second characteristic configuration of the energy production and supply plan creation system, a plurality of supply patterns can be selected by using a genetic algorithm technique as an algorithm for extracting an optimum solution having the minimum manufacturing cost from a plurality of supply patterns. Therefore, the possibility that the optimal solution falls into the local optimal solution is reduced, and the production and supply plan that is truly cost-optimized can be created with high accuracy and with ease. Here, the number of supply patterns required to obtain an optimal solution is reduced by creating the first generation supply pattern based on the actual data of the hourly production amount in each energy production line on one or more similar days. The processing time can be shortened.

  In the third characteristic configuration, in addition to the first or second characteristic configuration, the input unit further includes a minimum operating pressure of a predetermined node on the conduit network as the predetermined operating pressure range, and The point is to accept at least one input of the operating pressure range of the supply pressure for each energy production line.

  According to the third characteristic configuration of the energy production supply plan creation system, the minimum operation pressure of a predetermined node on the conduit network or the operation pressure range of the supply pressure for each energy production line is changed as necessary. Can do. For example, the present invention can be applied to a case where a change from normal operation conditions is preferable due to construction or the like on the conduit network or on the downstream side of each payout base.

  In the fourth feature configuration, in addition to any one of the feature configurations described above, the input unit further accepts at least one input of a plurality of cost calculation conditions used for calculating the production cost of each energy production line. In the point.

  According to the 4th characteristic structure of the said energy manufacture supply plan preparation system, the cost calculation conditions of each energy manufacture line can be changed as needed. For example, it is possible to immediately cope with a change in the electricity charge of the electric power consumed in the energy production line or a change in operation cost with respect to the delivery amount of the delivery pump installed in each energy production line.

  In the fifth feature configuration, in addition to any one of the above feature configurations, the input means further includes an operation ratio for each group of the energy production line or the energy production line, or one or more specific ones or more The input of the daily production amount or the fixed hourly production amount in the energy production line is received, and the supply pattern generation unit receives the operation ratio, the daily production amount or the fixed hourly production amount input to the input unit. As a constraint condition, the supply pattern is generated.

  According to the fifth characteristic configuration of the energy production supply plan creation system, an operation ratio between energy production lines, an operation ratio between groups of energy production lines (for example, energy factories), or a specific energy production With the daily production amount or hourly production amount in the line fixed to a predetermined value, a production supply plan that minimizes the production cost can be created.

  In the sixth feature configuration, in addition to any one of the feature configurations described above, the pressure transition of the predetermined node by the pressure transition determination unit is a predetermined operating pressure range among the supply patterns generated by the supply pattern generation unit. When the number of supply patterns determined to be within the predetermined number is equal to or less than a predetermined number, an error output means is provided for outputting a message regarding information regarding the node determined to be out of the predetermined operating pressure range.

  According to the sixth characteristic configuration of the energy production and supply plan creation system, when the number of supply patterns determined that the pressure transition of the predetermined node is within the predetermined operation pressure range is equal to or less than the predetermined number, the production cost is appropriately set. If a manufacturing supply plan is created without optimization, or a manufacturing supply plan is not created at all, information about nodes on the conduit network that would limit the number of supply patterns in that case You can learn from the output. As a result, it becomes possible to create a production supply plan that can minimize the production cost by correcting the operation pressure range.

  In the seventh feature configuration, in addition to any of the feature configurations described above, the performance database stores performance data of hourly pressure transitions of the one or more predetermined nodes of the conduit network, and from the performance database Obtain actual data of hourly pressure transition of the predetermined node on the supply day, estimate the pressure transition of the predetermined time preceding from the historical data of the hourly pressure transition, and the estimated pressure is derived by the pressure transition determination means The pressure abnormality predicting means for predicting at least one of the time when the deviation from the calculated pressure value of the predetermined node exceeds the predetermined value and the time deviating from the predetermined operating pressure range is provided.

  According to the seventh characteristic configuration of the energy production and supply plan creation system, before the pressure of a certain node on the conduit network actually deviates from the calculated value exceeding the predetermined value, or the predetermined operating pressure range is set. Before the departure, the time at which the event will occur can be predicted, so the production supply plan will be re-created before the event occurs, and the production of each energy production line will be avoided in advance to avoid the occurrence of the abnormal event. The amount can be changed.

  An embodiment of an energy production and supply plan creation system (hereinafter referred to as “the present invention system” as appropriate) according to the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. In the present embodiment, the system of the present invention has a high pressure in a plurality of production lines 101 to 104 (corresponding to energy production lines) in the gas supply system 100 illustrated in FIG. From a plurality of high-pressure governors 105-108 (corresponding to the payout base) via the conduit network 110 to the medium-pressure conduit network 120 connected to the high-pressure governors 105-108, a city with a production amount that matches the total demand on the day of supply This is a support system for supplying gas, and creates an energy production supply plan for each production line and hour by computer calculation processing.

  As shown in FIG. 1, the system 1 of the present invention optimizes the manufacturing cost and creates hourly production quantities for each production line for 24 hours on the supply day (for example, from 7:00 am on the current day to 7:00 am on the next day). Manufacturing supply plan creation unit 10, input means 2 for receiving inputs such as predicted daily total demand amount on the supply day separately predicted, actual data of hourly production amount of each production line 101 to 104, each high pressure governor 105-108, the performance database 4 for storing the hourly operation results (payout amount, primary side pressure, secondary side pressure, etc.), the hourly operation results of the holder 130 (discharge amount, accumulated amount, etc.), etc. Composed. In addition, the supply day does not necessarily mean one day according to the calendar as described above, and can be changed as appropriate.

  Further, the system 1 of the present invention is an hourly payout amount in each high-pressure governor on the supply day used by the user terminal 3 used by the user (operator) of the present invention system 1 for input / output operation and the manufacturing supply plan creation unit 10. An hourly load prediction unit 20 for creating (equivalent to hourly load prediction values), a weather database 5 for storing weather data (air temperature, water temperature, weather, etc.) in the past manufacturing date, a high-pressure and medium-pressure conduit network 110, The pipeline network database 6, the pipeline network transient response analysis tool 7, and the pipeline network steady state analysis tool 8 that store various node information of various pipeline networks such as 120 are connected via a computer network 9 such as a LAN. A part of the data input to the input means 2 is shared by the present system 1 and the hourly load prediction unit 20.

  The production supply plan creation unit 10 further includes a supply pattern generation unit 11, a pressure transition determination unit 12, a production cost calculation unit 13, an optimum supply pattern derivation unit 14, an error output unit 15, and a pressure abnormality prediction unit 16. Composed. The hourly load prediction unit 20 includes an hourly payout amount correction means 21, an hourly total demand amount creation means 22, a first hourly payout amount calculation means 23, a second hourly payout amount calculation means 24, and A three-hour payout amount calculation means 25 is provided. Here, in the present embodiment, the input unit 2, the manufacturing and supply plan creation unit 10, and the hourly load prediction unit 20 are realized by executing the processing of each unit in software on computer hardware.

  Next, the production and supply plan creation procedure using the system 1 of the present invention, and the functions and operations of each means of the production and supply plan creation unit 10 will be described with reference to the flowchart shown in FIG.

  First, the user accesses the weather forecast (temperature, water temperature, weather, etc.) on the day of supply at a user terminal by accessing a weather data server (not shown) that provides external weather forecast data and obtains the weather forecast. Based on the weather forecast data and the day of the supply day (both are collectively referred to as “characteristic information”), the daily total demand amount on the supply day is predicted, and the daily total demand amount predicted value Z is It inputs into the input means 2 of this invention system 1 with information (step # 1). Here, the daily total demand forecast value Z is a correspondence relationship between the past daily total demand stored in the performance database 4 in advance and the weather conditions (temperature, water temperature, weather, etc.) on each supply date. , For example, by deriving a primary regression equation etc. with the supply day of the week and each weather condition as explanatory variables and the daily total demand forecast value Z as an objective variable, based on the regression equation The daily total demand forecast value Z is obtained.

  When the daily total demand forecast value Z is input to the input means 2, the hourly load prediction unit 20 is activated, and the hourly payout amount Z1 (i, j) in each high-pressure governor on the supply day in the processing procedure described later. (Corresponding to the hourly load prediction value) is predicted (step # 10). Here, the argument i (i = 1 to 24) represents each time zone, for example, i = 1 is 7am to 8am on the day, and i = 24 is 6am to 7am on the next day. Each hour corresponds. The argument j represents the high pressure governor distinction.

  Next, the production and supply plan creation unit 10 optimizes the production cost on the day of supply based on the daily total demand forecast value Z and the hourly payout amount Z1 (i, j). A quantity S (i, k) is obtained (step # 20). Here, the argument k represents the distinction between production lines. Details will be described below.

  The supply pattern generation unit 11 uses a genetic algorithm in steps # 21, # 22, and # 26, which will be described later, and includes a supply pattern composed of hourly production quantities S (i, k, l) for each production line on the supply day. Generate multiple patterns. Here, the argument l represents the generated supply pattern.

  First, the supply pattern generation means 11 accesses the weather database 5 and selects one or a plurality of similar days (for example, for 1 to 30 days) based on the characteristic information (day of week, temperature, water temperature, weather, etc.) on the supply day. Hourly production for each production line on the day of supply based on the actual data of hourly production volume for each production line selected and each day selected and the predicted daily total demand amount Z received by the input means 2 A plurality of supply patterns (for example, 100 to 10000 patterns) including the amount S (i, k, l) are generated and set as the first generation pattern (step # 21). For example, in creating the hourly production quantity S (i, k, l) in step # 21, first, the daily total demand forecast value Z is calculated from the hourly total production quantity on each selected similar day (each production line). Based on the actual data of the hourly production amount), and is distributed to the hourly total demand forecast value Z (i, l) based on the hourly composition ratio, and the hourly production amount S of each production line The constraint is that the sum of (i, k, l) is the hourly total demand forecast value Z (i, l). Moreover, in each supply pattern of the 1st generation, when distributing the hourly total demand predicted value Z (i, l) to each production line, the performance data of each similar day is referred to. Therefore, each supply pattern of the 1st generation is not generated at random, but is generated according to the performance data of similar days.

  Next, for each newly generated supply pattern of a certain generation (for example, the first generation), the pressure transition determination means 12 performs an hourly manufacturing amount S (i, k, l) and hourly discharge amount Z1 (i, j) in each high pressure governor, as input conditions, the pressure transition (temporal change in pressure) of one or a plurality of predetermined nodes of the high pressure conduit network 110 for each supply pattern, It is derived using the conduit network transient response analysis tool 7 (corresponding to a conduit network unsteady simulator), and it is determined whether or not the derived pressure transition is within a predetermined operating pressure range (step # 22). Here, as the predetermined node, for example, an intermediate point on the high-pressure conduit network, a city gas delivery point of a plurality of production lines, or the like is used. And the said determination is performed using the operating pressure range defined for every predetermined node. Here, the conduit network transient response analysis tool 7 is a tool for deriving the transient response of the compressible fluid in the high-pressure gas pipeline network by unsteady analysis, and the high-pressure conduit network to be simulated is stored in the conduit network database. 6 is extracted and used. It is assumed that the simulation conduit network including the holder is modeled in advance and stored in the conduit network database 6.

  Further, in parallel with step # 22, the manufacturing cost calculation means 13 applies the hourly manufacturing amount S (for each manufacturing line) for each newly generated supply pattern of a certain generation (for example, the first generation). Based on i, k, l), the manufacturing cost for each manufacturing line and the total manufacturing cost are calculated (step # 23). The production cost for each production line is the production cost due to the difference in production cost due to the difference in power unit price by time for each production line, the presence or absence of power generation facilities, the number of pumps used, the combination of use, etc. Taking into account the fluctuation factors of the manufacturing cost, such as changing depending on the gas delivery amount, the calculation cost is calculated for each hour using a predetermined calculation formula, and the manufacturing cost for each manufacturing line for 24 hours is calculated. The calculated manufacturing cost for each manufacturing line is totaled to obtain the daily manufacturing cost.

  Next, the supply pattern generation unit 11 is a supply pattern in which the pressure transition of the predetermined node is determined to be within the predetermined operating pressure range by the pressure transition determination unit 12 from the generated generation patterns for one generation. In addition, a predetermined number (for example, 50 to 5000 patterns) is selected with the supply patterns having a low daily manufacturing cost calculated by the manufacturing cost calculating means 13 as excellent supply patterns (step # 24).

  Next, it is determined whether or not a predetermined number of supply patterns have been generated, or whether a predetermined convergence condition is satisfied (step # 25). If the end condition is not satisfied, Furthermore, a plurality of next-generation supply patterns are generated.

  The supply pattern generation means 11 performs a crossover process and a mutation process using a genetic algorithm on the selected excellent supply pattern, and supplies the next generation pattern (corresponding to the second generation if it is the first time). Is generated (step # 26). When a new generation supply pattern is generated, steps # 22 to # 25 are repeated until the end condition of step # 25 is satisfied.

  When the end condition is satisfied in the determination process of step # 25, the error output means 15 then sets the predetermined node by the pressure transition determination means 12 among the supply patterns of the respective generations generated in steps # 21 to # 26. It is determined whether the absolute number or the ratio of the supply patterns determined that the pressure transition is within the predetermined operating pressure range exceeds the predetermined number (step # 27).

  If the number of supply patterns (absolute number or ratio) determined that the pressure transition of the predetermined node is within the predetermined operating pressure range in step # 27 exceeds the predetermined number, the predetermined operating pressure range Is determined to be appropriate, and a supply pattern having the minimum daily production cost is extracted from all of the generated excellent supply patterns of all generations (step # 28).

  Further, when the error output means 15 determines in step # 27 that the number of supply patterns (absolute number or ratio) determined that the pressure transition of the predetermined node is within the predetermined operating pressure range is equal to or less than the predetermined number. Extracts a node whose pressure transition is outside the predetermined operating pressure range for the supply pattern that does not satisfy the above-described determination condition among the supply patterns of each generation generated in steps # 21 to # 26, Information about the node is output as a message to the user terminal 3 (step # 29).

  As described above, the production and supply plan creation unit 10 optimizes the production cost on the supply day based on the daily total demand amount predicted value Z and the hourly payout amount Z1 (i, j) by the processes in steps # 21 to # 28. When the hourly production quantity S (i, k) for each production line to be converted is obtained, a production supply plan on the supply day is created based on the hourly production quantity S (i, k) for each production line, Based on the plan, a manufacturing instruction is given to each manufacturing line (step # 30).

  When production of each production line is executed based on the created production supply plan, the production volume of each production line, the pressure of a predetermined node on the conduit network, the operating state of the high-pressure governor, etc. are sequentially measured, and the results database 4 is registered as new data. At the same time, it is monitored whether the actual data at the time of execution is inconsistent with the planned value or does not deviate from the predetermined operation range (step # 31). Thus, before the production on the supply day ends, the production supply plan for the next supply day is created by returning to step # 1 and repeating.

  In the execution monitoring of step # 31, the pressure abnormality predicting means 16 sequentially accesses the result database 4, acquires the result data of the hourly pressure transition of each of the predetermined nodes on the supply day, and from the result data of the hourly pressure change. Estimate the pressure transition of the preceding predetermined time. For example, as schematically shown in FIG. 4, when the historical data of the hourly pressure transition of each predetermined node has a downward trend, the downward curve DL (or straight line) of the hourly pressure transition is a straight line or a quadratic curve. Therefore, the descending curve DL is calculated for each predetermined node based on the acquired result data. Next, the pressure of the calculated descending curve DL deviates from the predetermined operating pressure range and the time (time) when the deviation from the calculated value of the pressure of each predetermined node derived by the pressure transition determination means 12 exceeds the predetermined value. Each time (time) is predicted. If the predicted time is within a predetermined time (for example, 3 hours), the error output means 15 issues an alarm and sets the predicted time or predicted time to the content (node distinction, deviation from the calculated value). A message is output to the user terminal 3 along with the deviation of the operating pressure range. Upon receiving the message, the user re-creates the production supply plan and instructs the production line to change the necessary production amount.

  Next, referring to the flowchart shown in FIG. 3 for the prediction process (step # 10) of the hourly payout amount Z1 (i, j) in each high-pressure governor on the supply day used for the production supply plan creation by the present system 1. I will explain.

  First, the hourly payout amount correction means 21 accesses the weather database 5 and is most similar to the supply day based on the supply day characteristic information (day of week, temperature, water temperature, weather, etc.) received by the input means 2. One similar date is selected, and the actual hourly payout data Z0 (i, j) of each high-pressure governor selected for the selected similar date, the hourly total value Z0 (i) is the production line for each similar date. Is corrected so as to coincide with the hourly total value S0 (i) of the actual production data S0 (i, k) of the hourly production amount (step # 11). Specifically, as shown in Equation 2 below, the hourly payout amount correction unit 21 calculates the hourly total amount Z0 (i) of the hourly payout amount of each high pressure governor on the selected similar day, and The difference (S0 (i) -Z0 (i)) with the hourly total value S0 (i) of the actual hourly production amount of each production line on the similar day is used as the hourly payout amount of each high-pressure governor on the similar day. The actual data Z0 (i, j) is proportionally distributed and added to the actual data Z0 (i, j) of the hourly payout amount of each high-pressure governor. In Equation 2, Z0 '(i, j) is the hourly payout amount of each high-pressure governor after the correction processing in Step # 11.

(Equation 2)
Z0 '(i, j) = Z0 (i, j)
+ (S0 (i) −Z0 (i)) × Z0 (i, j) / Z0 (i)

  Next, the hourly total demand amount creating means 22 uses the daily total demand amount predicted value Z received by the input means 2 as the actual data S0 of hourly production quantity of each production line selected in step # 11. Based on (i, k), the hourly total demand forecast value Z (i) on the supply day is decomposed as shown in the following Equation 3 to generate the hourly total demand forecast value Z (i). (Step # 12). In Equation 3, S0 is a total sum value for one day of the hourly total value S0 (i) of the record data S0 (i, k).

(Equation 3)
Z (i) = Z × S0 (i) / S0

  Next, the first hourly payout amount calculating means 23 records actual data S0 (i, k) of hourly production amount of each production line selected on the similar date selected in Step # 11, 2 in each high pressure governor on the similar date. The hourly operation result data PS0 (i, j) of the secondary pressure and the result data H0 (i, m) of the hourly discharge amount of each holder 130 on the similar day (m indicates the distinction between the holders). As an input condition, the hourly payout amount Z0s (i, j) in each high-pressure governor on the similar date is calculated (step # 13). Specifically, the first hourly payout amount calculation means 23 includes a high-pressure conduit network 110 and a medium-pressure conduit network 120 connected to the high-pressure conduit network 110 via each high-pressure governor (corresponding to a second conduit network). ) Is extracted from the pipeline network database 6 and each of the network on the steady analysis conduit network on the similar date is extracted from the pipeline network database 6 using the pipeline network steady analysis tool 8. The hourly discharge amount Z0s (i, j) from the high-pressure conduit network 110 to the medium-pressure conduit network 120 in the high-pressure governor is obtained by simulation. In the steady analysis conduit network, various components (high pressure governors, holders, conduits, etc.) in the high pressure and medium pressure conduit networks 110 and 120 are preliminarily modeled and stored in the conduit network database 6. It shall be.

  Next, the second hourly payout amount calculation means 24 performs the hourly total demand forecast value Z (i) for each production line on the supply day generated in step # 12, the secondary side in each high pressure governor on the supply day. With the hourly operation plan PS1 (i, j) of the pressure and the hourly operation plan H1 (i, m) of the holder on the supply day as input conditions, the hourly discharge amount Z1s (i, j) is calculated (step # 14). Specifically, the second hourly payout amount calculating means 24 extracts the same steady analysis conduit network used in step # 13 from the conduit network database 6, and the conduit network steady state is extracted from the steady analysis conduit network. The analysis tool 8 is used to simulate the hourly discharge amount Z1s (i, j) from the high pressure conduit network 110 to the intermediate pressure conduit network 120 in each high pressure governor on the steady analysis conduit network on the supply day. Ask.

  Next, the third hourly payout amount calculating means 25 sets the second hourly payout amount calculating means to the hourly payout amount Z0 ′ (i, j) of each high-pressure governor corrected by the hourly payout amount correcting means 21. 24. Hourly payout amount Z0s (for each high-pressure governor on the similar day calculated by the first hourly payout amount calculation means 23 from the hourly payout amount Z1s (i, j) for each high-pressure governor on the supply day calculated by 24. The value obtained by subtracting i, j) for each high-pressure governor and each hour is added to each high-pressure governor and each hour to obtain a predicted value Z1 (i, j) of hourly payout amount in each high-pressure governor on the supply day ( Step # 15). In summary, Z1 (i, j) is calculated by the following equation (4).

(Equation 4)
Z1 (i, j) = Z0 ′ (i, j) + Z1s (i, j) −Z0s (i, j)

  Hereinafter, another embodiment will be described.

  <1> In the above embodiment, the input unit 2 further includes the conduit network as the predetermined operating pressure range used by the pressure transition determination unit 12 to determine the pressure transition of one or more predetermined nodes of the high-pressure conduit network 110. It is also preferable that at least one of the minimum operating pressure of a predetermined node on 110 and the operating pressure range of the supply pressure for each production line can be received.

  In this case, the pressure transition determination means 12 preferentially uses the operating pressure range input with respect to the preset operating pressure range, so that the user of the system 1 of the present invention can operate the operating pressure range as necessary. Can be changed arbitrarily.

  Further, when the predetermined operating pressure range used by the pressure transition determining unit 12 is not set in advance and needs to be input every time, the pressure transition determining unit 12 determines whether the predetermined node input to the input unit 2 The operating pressure range may be used.

  <2> In the above embodiment, the input unit 2 may be configured to accept at least one input of a plurality of cost calculation conditions used by the manufacturing cost calculation unit 13 to calculate the manufacturing cost in each manufacturing line. preferable. The manufacturing cost calculation means 13 preferentially uses the cost calculation conditions input with respect to the preset cost calculation conditions, so that the user of the system 1 of the present invention can use the calculation costs as necessary. A plurality of cost calculation conditions can be arbitrarily changed.

  Further, when the plurality of cost calculation conditions used by the manufacturing cost calculation unit 13 are not set in advance and need to be input each time, the manufacturing cost calculation unit 13 inputs the cost calculation condition input to the input unit 2. May be used.

  <3> In the above-described embodiment, the input means 2 further includes an operation ratio of a manufacturing facility including a manufacturing line or a plurality of parts of the manufacturing line, or a daily production amount or a fixed amount in a specific one or more manufacturing lines. It is also preferable to be able to accept the input of the hourly production amount. When the supply pattern generation means 11 generates the hourly production quantity S (i, k, l) for each production line on the supply day in steps # 21 and # 26, the above operation input to the input means 2 The ratio, daily production amount, or fixed hourly production amount is set as a constraint. Therefore, when creating the first generation supply pattern in step # 21, normally, the time of each production line is based on the actual production data of the hourly production amount in each production line on each selected similar day. The allocation of the hourly production quantity between production lines is determined on the condition that the total of the different production quantities S (i, k, l) becomes the hourly total demand forecast value Z (i, l). When the above operation ratio, daily production amount or fixed hourly production amount is input to the input means 2, the distribution of the hourly production amount between the production lines is determined further bound by the inputted conditions. .

  For example, if the operation ratio of the production line 101 in FIG. 2 is set to 25%, the remaining 75% is allocated to other production lines based on the actual data. Further, for example, when the production lines 101 and 102 belong to the same factory A, and the operation ratio of the factory A is set to 40%, the production amount of 40% per hour in the production lines 101 and 102 is the above record. Based on the data, the remaining 60% of the hourly production amount is distributed on another production line based on the actual data.

  Further, for example, when the daily production amount of the production line 101 in FIG. 2 is set, the daily production amount of the production line 101 from the hourly production amount S (i, k, l) obtained by the normal processing procedure. And the hourly production quantity S (i, k, l) of the production line 101 is corrected at the same ratio so that the calculated daily production quantity becomes the set daily production quantity. Differences according to time caused by the correction are distributed on other production lines.

  Further, for example, when the production amount by fixed time of the production line 101 in FIG. 2 is set, the production amount by hour S (i, k, l) of the production line 101 is fixed to the set production amount by fixed time. The sum of the hourly production quantities S (i, k, l) of the other production lines is a value obtained by subtracting the production quantity by fixed time from the hourly total demand forecast value Z (i, l). With this as a new constraint condition, hourly production quantities S (i, k, l) of other production lines are generated.

  <4> In the above-described embodiment, the second hourly payout amount calculation unit 24 uses the hourly operation plan PS1 (i, j) of the secondary pressure in each high pressure governor and the hourly operation plan H1 (i, m) of the holder. ) Describes the case where a normal operation plan (default value) set in advance is used, but the input means 2 further includes an hourly operation plan PS1 (i, j) or a holder of the secondary pressure in each high pressure governor. It is also preferable that the hourly operation plan H1 (i, m) or both of these inputs or their change inputs can be received. In this different embodiment, the second hourly payout amount calculation means 24 uses the input means 2 when calculating the hourly payout amount Z1s (i, j) in each high pressure governor by using the conduit network steady state analysis tool 8. The hourly operation plan PS1 (i, j) of the secondary pressure inputted from the above or the hourly operation plan H1 (i, m) of the holder is preferentially used as an input condition. The second hourly payout amount calculation means 24 corresponds to the hourly operation plan PS1 (i, j) of the secondary pressure in each high pressure governor set in advance or the hourly operation plan H1 (i, m) of the holder. By using the input operation plan preferentially, the user of the system 1 of the present invention can use the operation plan for simulating the hourly payout amount Z1s (i, j) in each high-pressure governor on the supply day as necessary. Can be changed arbitrarily.

  Further, when the operation plans used by the second hourly payout amount calculating means 24 are not set in advance and need to be input each time, the second hourly payout amount calculating means 24 inputs to the input means 2. The operation plans PS1 (i, j) and H1 (i, m) may be used.

  <5> In the above-described embodiment, the manufacturing cost calculation unit 13 performs, in step # 23, in parallel with step # 22, for each newly generated supply pattern of a certain generation (for example, the first generation). In the above description, the manufacturing cost for each manufacturing line and the total manufacturing cost are calculated. However, step # 23 may be executed after step # 22. That is, in step # 22, the manufacturing cost for each manufacturing line and the total manufacturing cost value may be calculated for the supply pattern in which the derived pressure transition is determined to be within the predetermined operating pressure range.

  <6> In the above-described embodiment, the manufacturing cost is optimized and the hourly production amount S (i, k) for each production line for 24 hours on the supply day (for example, 7 am to 7 am on the next day) A case has been described in which prediction is made based on the hourly payout amount Z1 (i, j) in each high-pressure governor for 24 hours on the same supply day. In this case, the hourly payout amount Z1 (i, j) is calculated for the 24-hour period. However, when various performance data, weather forecast data, etc. have a daily break of midnight, the hourly payout amount. Z1 (i, j) may be derived for 48 hours, and the necessary 24 hours may be extracted and used to create a manufacturing and supply plan.

  <7> In the above embodiment, city gas is assumed as the energy type, but the energy type is not limited to city gas as long as it is supplied using a conduit network. For example, the energy type may be water, petroleum, hot water, hydrogen, or the like.

The block diagram which shows one Embodiment of the energy manufacture supply plan preparation system which concerns on this invention, and its peripheral device The block diagram which represented typically the gas supply system used as the object of the energy production supply plan preparation system which concerns on this invention The flowchart which shows an example of the preparation procedure of the manufacture supply plan using the energy manufacture supply plan preparation system which concerns on this invention The figure explaining the estimation process of the pressure transition of the preceding predetermined time by a pressure abnormality prediction means A flowchart showing a conventional procedure for creating a production supply plan for each production line and each hour

Explanation of symbols

1: Energy production and supply plan creation system according to the present invention 2: Input means 3: User terminal 4: Results database 5: Meteorological database 6: Pipe network database 7: Pipe network transient response analysis tool 8: Pipe network steady state analysis tool 9 : Computer network 10: Manufacturing supply plan creation unit 11: Supply pattern generation means 12: Pressure transition determination means 13: Manufacturing cost calculation means 14: Optimal supply pattern derivation means 15: Error output means 16: Pressure abnormality prediction means 20: By time Load prediction unit 21: hourly payout amount correcting means 22: hourly total demand amount creating means 23: first hourly payout amount calculating means 24: second hourly payout amount calculating means 25: third hourly payout amount calculating means 100: Gas supply system 101-104: Production line (energy production line)
105-108: High-pressure governor (dispensing base)
110: High pressure conduit network 120: Medium pressure conduit network 130: Holder

Claims (7)

An energy production and supply plan creation system that supports the creation of energy production and supply plans for each production line and each hour for supplying energy to a plurality of payout bases via a conduit network via a computer network. And
A record database storing record data of past hourly production quantities of each energy production line;
An input means for receiving an input of a forecasted daily total demand amount on the supply day separately predicted;
One or more similar days are selected based on the characteristic information of the supply day, and the actual production data of the hourly production quantity in the energy production lines of the selected similar days and the daily total demand forecast value A supply pattern generating means for generating a plurality of supply patterns consisting of hourly production quantities for each energy production line on the supply day,
Accepts the input of the hourly load prediction value at each payout site on the supply day separately predicted, and inputs the hourly production amount for each energy production line on the supply day and the hourly load prediction value at each payout site As a condition, a pressure transition of one or more predetermined nodes of the conduit network for each pattern is derived using a predetermined conduit network unsteady simulator, and the derived pressure transition is within a predetermined operating pressure range. Pressure transition determining means for determining
Manufacturing cost calculating means for calculating the manufacturing cost of each energy manufacturing line and the total manufacturing cost based on the hourly manufacturing amount for each energy manufacturing line;
A supply pattern in which the total manufacturing cost value calculated by the manufacturing cost calculating means is minimized is extracted from the supply patterns determined by the pressure transition determining means to be within a predetermined operating pressure range. Means for deriving the optimum supply pattern,
An energy production and supply plan creation system characterized by comprising:   The supply pattern generation means generates a supply pattern of the first generation based on the actual data of the hourly production amount and the predicted daily total demand amount in each energy production line of the selected one or more similar days. When generating a plurality of patterns and generating a plurality of new generation supply patterns after the second generation by using a genetic algorithm technique, the pressure transition determining means uses the pressure transition determination means for the plurality of supply patterns one generation before. A plurality of patterns are extracted in order from the smallest manufacturing cost total value calculated by the manufacturing cost calculating means from those determined to be within the predetermined operating pressure range, and extracted one generation before The energy production according to claim 1, wherein a plurality of new generation supply patterns are generated based on the supply patterns. Supply planning system.   The input means further receives at least one input of a minimum operating pressure of a predetermined node on the conduit network and an operating pressure range of a supply pressure for each energy production line as the predetermined operating pressure range. The energy production supply plan creation system according to claim 1 or 2.   The said input means further receives at least 1 input of the several cost calculation conditions used for calculation of the manufacturing cost of each said energy production line, The any one of Claims 1-3 characterized by the above-mentioned. Energy production and supply planning system. The input means further accepts an input of an operation ratio for each group of the energy production lines or the energy production lines, or a daily production quantity or a fixed hourly production quantity in one or more specific energy production lines. ,
The said supply pattern production | generation means produces | generates the said supply pattern on the basis of the said operation ratio input into the said input means, the said daily production amount, or the said production amount according to fixed time, The restriction | limiting conditions are produced | generated. 5. The energy production and supply plan creation system according to any one of 4 above.   Among the supply patterns generated by the supply pattern generation means, when the number of supply patterns determined by the pressure transition determination means that the pressure transition of the predetermined node is within a predetermined operating pressure range is less than or equal to a predetermined number, The energy production and supply plan creation system according to any one of claims 1 to 5, further comprising an error output unit that outputs a message about information regarding a node determined to be outside the predetermined operating pressure range. The performance database stores performance data of hourly pressure transitions of the one or more predetermined nodes of the conduit network;
Obtain actual data of the hourly pressure transition of the predetermined node on the supply day from the actual database, estimate the pressure transition of the predetermined time preceding from the actual data of the hourly pressure transition, and the estimated pressure is the pressure transition Pressure abnormality predicting means for predicting at least one of a time when the deviation from the calculated pressure value of the predetermined node derived by the determining means exceeds a predetermined value and a time deviating from the predetermined operating pressure range; The energy production and supply plan creation system according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

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