JP2005200972A - Disaster-information service system - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To accurately set a zone, in which a refuze advice is announced officially, while officially announcing a disaster information such as the refuze advice to residents easily and accurately at a low cost by cities, towns and villages or the like. <P>SOLUTION: A disaster-information service system 11 decides the risk of a disaster at every risk place and distributes a disaster-risk information as a disaster-information service. Disaster-risk threshold values are obtained at every risk place in response to a disaster hysteresis displaying ground informations at every risk place and the amount of a rainfall in the case of disaster generations at every risk place in a soil-sand moving potential generating section 21a in this case. A current precipitation information displaying a current precipitation at every risk place, a predicted precipitation information displaying a future precipitation predictor and the disaster risk threshold value are compared and the disaster risk information is distributed when at least one of the current precipitation information and the predicted precipitation information exceeds the disaster-risk threshold value in a soil-sand disaster-generation risk decision section 21c in this case. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2005,JPO&NCIPI

Description

  The present invention relates to a disaster information service system for performing a disaster information distribution service by determining the risk of occurrence of a landslide disaster or the like.

  The Sediment Disaster Prevention Law was enacted to deal with human life damage caused by disasters such as debris disasters (for example, debris flow, landslides, or landslides), and caution areas were designated by the Sediment Disaster Prevention Law. If there is a risk of a landslide disaster in Japan, landslide warning information is issued by the weather station, etc., and transmitted to the relevant municipalities, etc., and the municipalities provide evacuation advice to residents based on the landslide warning information It is going to be built.

  In municipalities, even if sediment-related disaster warning information is issued, this sediment-related disaster warning information does not specifically identify which mountain stream or slope is in a dangerous state. Must issue evacuation advisories over a wide area. And when an evacuation advisory is issued over a wide area, the resident evacuation advisory is issued to a large number of residents who do not need to evacuate. Even if it is considered bad and an evacuation advisory is issued, the number of residents who do not want to evacuate will increase.

  Furthermore, when an evacuation advisory is issued over a wide area, as a result of the large number of target inhabitants as mentioned above, it is necessary to secure a large number of evacuation areas and food, etc. It will also be.

  In addition, when landslide disaster warning information is issued, it is often a heavy rain, and when landslide disaster warning information is issued, municipal officials should patrol a number of landslide hazard areas in heavy rain. However, it is extremely difficult to patrol all the landslide hazard areas in heavy rain, and as a result, evacuation advisories are issued over a wide area as described above.

  Therefore, if the risk of landslide disaster is determined for each landslide hazard point, the inspection area of staff inspection and evacuation advisory can be limited, and the burden on residents and municipalities can be reduced. In addition, evacuation advisories can be issued with high accuracy.

  As a method for determining the risk of landslide disaster as described above, for example, after calculating the potential risk of landslide disaster occurrence and classifying slopes or mountain streams into groups, the average value of the potential risks of these multiple groups Calculate the weight of the connection between the intermediate layer and the output layer using a neural network for the discriminating boundary surface representing the risk of occurrence of sediment disasters for each classified group, and calculate the sediment on each slope or mountain stream There is one in which a non-linear occurrence limit line of disaster, an evacuation reference line, and a warning reference line are set (see Patent Document 1).

  Here, the basic discriminant boundary surface for each group classified according to the potential risk of landslide disasters is constructed, and the individual nonlinear occurrence limit is determined using the impact of the potential risk obtained from the difference in the basic discriminant boundary surface between groups. A line is set to clearly reflect the difference in potential risk in the individual nonlinear occurrence limit line, and an individual and non-linear sediment disaster occurrence limit line that takes into account slope factors or mountain stream factors is set. I try to evacuate.

JP 2003-184098 A (paragraph (0037) to paragraph (0046), FIGS. 2 to 9)

  By the way, in patent document 1, the basic discrimination boundary surface classified for every group classified according to the potential risk of earth and sand disaster is constructed, and the influence of the latent risk obtained from the difference of the basic discrimination boundary surface between groups is used. Set individual non-linear occurrence limit lines, clearly reflect the difference in potential risk in the individual non-linear generation limit lines, and set individual and non-linear sediment disaster occurrence limit lines etc. considering slope factors or mountain stream factors Although evacuation and evacuation related to earth and sand disasters are being performed, the landslide disaster occurrence limit line is simply set, and the risk of landslide disasters is determined according to the landslide disaster occurrence limit line. If you do not make damage predictions when a disaster occurs (for example, set the damage prediction area) and only determine the risk of landslide disasters at each hazardous location, you can accurately set the area for issuing evacuation advisories. Often There is a problem that Ukoto can not.

  Furthermore, in Patent Document 1, since the sediment disaster occurrence limit line is simply set and the risk of sediment disaster is determined according to the sediment disaster occurrence limit line, it is obtained in this way. It is difficult to distribute danger information, damage prediction information, evacuation guidance information, etc. according to the judgment results. For municipalities, how to evacuate when earth and sand disaster warning information is issued There is a problem that there is a lot of confusion about whether recommendations should be issued.

  SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION Accordingly, an object of the present invention is to provide a disaster information service system capable of accurately setting an area for issuing an evacuation recommendation in view of the problems of the prior art.

  Furthermore, an object of the present invention is to provide a disaster information service system that allows municipalities and the like to issue disaster information such as evacuation recommendations to residents in an easy, accurate and inexpensive manner.

  In addition, an object of the present invention is to provide a disaster information service system that allows municipalities and the like to immediately obtain useful information such as evacuation recommendations at a low cost without building a unique system.

  Therefore, in order to solve such a problem, the present invention is a disaster information service system that determines the risk of occurrence of a disaster for each dangerous place and distributes the disaster risk information as a disaster information service, the ground for each dangerous place Threshold generation means for determining a disaster risk threshold value for each risk location according to information and a disaster history indicating the amount of rainfall at the time of disaster occurrence for each risk location, current rainfall information indicating the current rainfall for each risk location, and Comparing predicted rainfall information indicating a predicted rainfall amount in the future with the disaster risk threshold, and distributing at least one of the current rainfall information and the predicted rainfall information exceeds the disaster risk threshold It has a disaster occurrence risk determination means.

  In the present invention, for example, the threshold value generation means obtains the disaster risk threshold value as a discriminant based on multivariate analysis, and the disaster occurrence risk determination means indicates that the predicted rainfall information is the When the disaster risk threshold is exceeded, predetermined first warning information is distributed as the disaster risk information. The disaster risk determination means distributes the first warning information, and if the current rainfall information exceeds the disaster risk threshold, the second warning information defined in advance is used as the disaster risk information. Deliver as. In addition, when the first and second warning information is distributed, the disaster occurrence risk determination means may change the display color of the dangerous place according to the risk level.

  Furthermore, in the present invention, for example, when the disaster risk information is distributed, the outflow analysis result is obtained by performing a water outflow analysis on the dangerous point according to the ground information, the current rainfall information, and the predicted rainfall information. The obtained runoff analysis means, the sediment movement amount prediction means for obtaining the sediment concentration according to the ground information based on the runoff analysis result and using the sediment flow rate as the estimated sediment flow rate, and depending on the sediment flow rate in advance for each dangerous point A database in which the inundation analysis is performed and the damage area is set as an inundation analysis result, and a damage prediction area determination means for obtaining the damage prediction area by extracting the inundation analysis result from the database according to the estimated sediment flow It is preferable that the damage prediction area determination unit distributes damage prediction information indicating the damage prediction area via a communication line.

  In the present invention, an evacuation guidance plan for obtaining the damage prediction area and generating evacuation guidance information indicating an evacuation place and an evacuation route by performing an evacuation simulation according to at least the population and the position of the evacuation place related to the dangerous place A generation unit may be included to distribute the evacuation guidance information via a communication line. The danger location may be divided into meshes at predetermined intervals to obtain a mesh region, and a disaster risk threshold value of the mesh region may be obtained to determine the disaster occurrence risk for each mesh region.

  As described above, the disaster information service system of the present invention obtains the disaster risk threshold value for each dangerous place according to the disaster information indicating the ground information for each dangerous place and the rainfall history at the time of occurrence of the disaster for each dangerous place, Because the current rainfall information and predicted rainfall information and the disaster risk threshold are compared for each danger location, and at least one of the current rainfall information and the predicted rainfall information exceeds the disaster risk threshold, the disaster risk information is distributed. In addition, it is possible not only to accurately set up areas for issuing evacuation advisories in municipalities, etc., but also to issue disaster information such as evacuation advisories to residents in an easy, accurate and inexpensive manner. There is an effect. Further, there is an effect that municipalities can immediately obtain useful information such as evacuation advice at a low cost without building an original system.

  In the present invention, when the predicted rainfall information exceeds the disaster risk threshold, the first warning information is distributed as the disaster risk information, so it is possible to accurately notify the municipality that there is a risk of disaster in advance. There is an effect.

  In the present invention, after the first warning information is distributed, if the current rainfall information exceeds the disaster risk threshold, the second warning information is distributed as the disaster risk information. There is an effect that the degree of danger can be notified.

  In the present invention, when disaster risk information is distributed, the damage prediction area related to the dangerous point is estimated and distributed as damage prediction information. There is an effect that can be.

  In the present invention, since the evacuation guidance plan related to the damage prediction area is simulated and distributed, there is an effect that the evacuation guidance plan for the residents can be easily formulated in the municipalities.

  Hereinafter, exemplary embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. However, the dimensions, materials, shapes, relative arrangements, and the like of the components described in this embodiment are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention unless otherwise specified, but are merely illustrative examples. Not too much.

  FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a disaster information distribution system using an example of a disaster information service system according to the present invention. The illustrated disaster information distribution system is provided with a disaster information service system 11. The system 11 includes a sediment disaster risk determination unit 21, a damage prediction determination unit 22, and an evacuation guidance plan generation unit 23. Further, the disaster information service system 11 is connected to a disaster database (disaster DB) 31, a dangerous location DB 32, a countermeasure facility DB 33, a population / asset DB 34, a disaster vulnerable and related facility DB 35, a public facility DB 36, and various space infrastructure DBs 37. In addition, the disaster information service system 11 is provided with ground information and rainfall information from the ground information distribution system 41 and the rainfall information distribution system 42, respectively, and as described later, the sediment disaster occurrence risk is determined, Distribute sediment-related disaster risk information to public institutions such as municipalities via the disaster information distribution system.

  Furthermore, as will be described later, the disaster information service system 11 performs damage prediction to generate damage prediction information, distributes the damage prediction information to public institutions such as municipalities via the disaster information distribution system, and is necessary. In response, an evacuation guidance plan is generated and distributed as evacuation guidance information to public institutions such as municipalities via a disaster information distribution system.

  In the following description, risk judgment and damage prediction of landslide disasters in dangerous locations in a watershed such as a mountain stream will be described as dangerous locations, but the same applies to other dangerous locations such as slopes.

  As described above, the disaster information service system 11 is provided with ground information and rainfall information from the ground information distribution system 41 and the rain information distribution system 42. In the ground information distribution system 41, the three-dimensional digital including the dangerous part is provided. Topographic data for each dangerous location after obtaining maps and various survey research results (including satellite image data and national water information, which is information about water related to the basin), and performing analysis processing (measurement / analysis processing) The geological / soil data, vegetation data, and underground structure data are distributed to the disaster information service system 11 as ground information.

  On the other hand, the rainfall information distribution system 42 is provided in, for example, a meteorological organization (meteorological company), and analyzes and analyzes the radar rainfall measured by the radar, the ground rainfall measured by the rain gauge, and various weather data. The rainfall (actual value) and the predicted rainfall (predicted value) are obtained, and these analyzed rainfall and predicted rainfall are distributed to the disaster information service system 11 as rainfall information.

  The sediment disaster risk determination unit 21 includes a sediment movement potential (threshold) generation unit 21a, a soil moisture content (relative value) calculation unit 21b, and a sediment disaster occurrence risk determination unit 21c. The degree of risk of landslide disaster is determined according to rainfall information, past disaster history stored in the disaster DB 31, and dangerous location data indicating the dangerous location stored in the dangerous location DB 32.

  Referring also to FIG. 2, the earth and sand movement potential generation unit 21a obtains ground information (predisposition conditions) for each dangerous place (for example, mountain stream) based on the dangerous place data (step S1) and disaster history (past sediment disaster) The occurrence location of the sediment disaster and the amount of rainfall at the time of occurrence / non-occurrence are obtained according to the occurrence information) (step S2). Then, the earth and sand movement potential generation unit 21a makes a short-term index (the amount of soil moisture on the surface) and a long-term index (underground soil) for each dangerous point based on the ground information and the amount of rainfall when a sediment disaster occurs or does not occur. Medium water content) is calculated (step S3).

  The occurrence of earth and sand movement depends on the moisture condition of the soil surface layer (surface soil moisture) and the depth of the soil layer (underground soil moisture content). A rainfall index that harmonizes with the behavior caused by each underground moisture content is used. For example, when calculating a rainfall index that harmonizes with the moisture content in the soil, a technique such as an effective rainfall or a tank model is used.

  As described above, after obtaining the short-term index and long-term index, multivariate analysis (for example, multiple regression analysis) is performed according to the ground information (terrain factors), the short-term index, and the long-term index, and the disaster risk threshold ( Hereinafter, it is simply referred to as a threshold value (step S4). In step S4, the multiple discriminant represented by [Formula 1] is generated.

[Formula 1]
y = − (C ₂ / C ₁ ) − (A ₀ + Σb _i X _i ) / C ₁ (i is ₁ to n)
Here, y = X ₁ : short-term index (rainfall factor), x = X ₂ : long-term index (rainfall factor), − (C ₂ / C ₁ ) is a slope (C ₁ and C ₂ are rainfalls, C ₁ Corresponds to X ₁ and C ₂ corresponds to X ₂ ), − (A ₀ + Σb _i X _i ) / C ₁ : a constant term due to topographic factors.

  As described above, when a multiple discriminant is generated by multiple regression analysis, this multiple discriminant becomes a linear threshold value. In step S5, a linear threshold value is set for each dangerous place, and is given to the sediment disaster occurrence risk determination unit 21c. It is done. For example, as shown in FIG. 3, when the coordinate values of x (long-term index) and y (short-term index) in the occurrence of disaster and the occurrence of disaster are plotted on the xy coordinates, the linear threshold is calculated as follows. It will be drawn so that the occurrences are separated.

  Also, as shown in FIG. 4, for example, the threshold approaches the origin as the risk of debris flow generation increases, and in FIG. 4, the linear threshold indicated by a solid line is a mountain stream with a low risk of debris flow generation and is indicated by a broken line. The linear threshold indicates a mountain stream with a high risk of debris flow. Note that a snake curve indicating the rainfall is shown in the illustrated xy coordinates.

  On the other hand, the soil moisture content calculation unit 21b obtains the current short-term index and long-term index based on the analyzed rainfall (actual value: current rainfall) in the rainfall information for each risk location obtained from the risk location DB 32. Then, it is given to the sediment-related disaster occurrence risk determination unit 21c as current rainfall information. Further, the soil moisture content calculation unit 21b obtains a future short-term index and a long-term index on the basis of the predicted rainfall (predicted value) in the rainfall information for each risk location, and determines the risk of occurrence of landslide disaster as the predicted rainfall information. To part 21c.

  The landslide disaster occurrence risk determination unit 21c determines the risk of landslide disaster occurrence for each risk location according to the threshold value for each risk location, the current rainfall information and the predicted rainfall information for each risk location. The predicted rainfall information includes rainfall information up to several hours ahead, but in the illustrated example, predicted rainfall information up to two hours later is used. Referring to FIG. 5, when the sediment-related disaster risk determination unit 21c issues the sediment-related disaster warning information (step T1), as the sediment-related disaster risk information, the residents in the area corresponding to the sediment-related disaster warning information are notified. Information to call for warning is sent to municipalities. At this time, in the earth and sand disaster occurrence risk determination unit 21c, for example, the display color of the dangerous part displayed on the monitor (not shown) is set to yellow.

  Then, the landslide disaster occurrence risk determination unit 21c determines whether or not the predicted rainfall information after 2 hours exceeds the threshold value for each dangerous place (step T2), and the predicted rainfall information after 2 hours exceeds the threshold value. If there is, the information (first warning information) that prompts the local patrol of the dangerous location is sent to the municipality as the earth and sand disaster risk information (step T3). At this time, in the earth and sand disaster occurrence risk determination unit 21c, for example, the display color of the dangerous part displayed on the monitor is set to orange.

  When the predicted rainfall information after 2 hours exceeds the threshold, the sediment-related disaster occurrence risk determination unit 21c subsequently determines whether the predicted rainfall information after 1 hour at the dangerous location exceeds the threshold (step T4). If the predicted rainfall information after one hour exceeds the threshold, municipalities, etc. will inform you that evacuation advice should be given to the residents corresponding to the dangerous location as landslide disaster risk information. (Step T5). At this time, in the earth and sand disaster occurrence risk determination unit 21c, for example, the display color of the dangerous part displayed on the monitor is set to a dark pink color.

  Further, when the predicted rainfall information after one hour exceeds the threshold value, the sediment disaster occurrence risk determination unit 21c determines whether or not the current rainfall information of the dangerous location exceeds the threshold value (step T6). If the threshold value exceeds the threshold, information (second warning information) indicating that evacuation advice should be given again to the residents who fall under the dangerous location should be sent to municipalities as landslide disaster risk information (Step T7). At this time, in the earth and sand disaster occurrence risk determination unit 21c, for example, the display color of the dangerous part displayed on the monitor is set to red.

  Referring to FIG. 1 again, as described above, the landslide disaster risk information sent from the landslide disaster risk determination unit 21c is sent to a municipality or the like via the communication line 51 in real time. The sediment disaster risk information may be transmitted not only to municipalities but also to, for example, fire departments, police, prefectures, and national institutions, or directly to residents. Further, it may be transmitted to a road maintenance organization such as a road corporation, a railway company such as JR, or a public enterprise. In this way, it can be used for regional disaster prevention, voluntary disaster prevention, road disaster prevention, railway disaster prevention, construction safety measures, and the like.

  As the communication line 51, for example, an optical cable dedicated line, a satellite communication line, a mobile phone line, a general telephone line, the Internet, or the like is used. In addition, CATV, terrestrial digital broadcasting, etc. may be used as a communication line. In this way, as an SOS communication service, disaster occurrence reports, support requests from vulnerable people, etc. are transferred to related organizations all at once. In addition, for example, an interactive consultation can be accepted like a TV phone.

  In the above-described example, the linear threshold value shown in FIG. 3 is set as the threshold value for each dangerous place, and the risk of landslide disaster occurrence is determined. However, as shown in FIG. You may make it set. Referring to FIG. 7, in FIG. 7, the same steps as those in FIG. 2 are denoted by the same reference numerals, and description thereof is omitted.

  When setting the non-linear threshold, the earth and sand movement potential generation unit 21a calculates the frequency of occurrence of rainfall according to the ground information (topographic factors), the short-term index, and the long-term index (step S6). The frequency of occurrence of rainfall at the time of disaster occurrence / non-occurrence is generated (step S7). As shown in FIG. 8, the long-term index and the short-term index are divided into meshes for each rainfall (water content) (every 10 mm in the illustrated example) with the horizontal axis and the vertical axis respectively, and a snake curve is obtained for each mesh. The number of rainfalls located within is counted.

  Further, based on the disaster history stored in the disaster DB 31, the frequency of occurrence of rainfall (for example, once / 25 years) in a mesh where a sediment disaster has occurred is read, and the frequency of occurrence of rainfall at the time of occurrence / non-occurrence of a disaster for each dangerous location. Data will be generated. Then, the sediment movement potential generation unit 21a generates a multiple discriminant representing the relationship between the rainfall occurrence frequency data and the topographic factor (step S8), and sets this double discriminant as a nonlinear threshold (step S9). In step S9, a non-linear threshold is set for each dangerous place, and is given to the earth and sand disaster occurrence risk determination unit 21c.

  Here, as shown in FIG. 9, the frequency of occurrence of rainfall in which a sediment disaster occurs under topographic factors is obtained, and the lower limit line of the frequency of occurrence of rain is set as a nonlinear threshold. In the example shown in FIG. 9, the non-linear threshold is drawn at the boundary between the rain occurrence frequency once and twice, but actually, as shown in FIG. 10, the rain occurrence frequency curve is based on the rain occurrence frequency. And a non-linear threshold is set according to the rainfall occurrence frequency curved surface.

  Referring to FIG. 1 again, the damage prediction determination unit 22 includes a sediment movement amount prediction unit 22a, a runoff analysis unit 22b, an inundation analysis unit 22c, a damage prediction area determination unit 22d, and a damage prediction amount determination unit 22e. The determination result, threshold value, current rainfall information, and predicted rainfall information are given to the damage prediction determination unit 22 from the sediment disaster risk determination unit 21.

  Here, referring also to FIG. 11, first, the runoff analysis unit 22b generates a topographic model from the ground information regarding the dangerous location to which the sediment disaster risk information is sent (step P1). -An outflow analysis is performed using an intermediate flow (flow in a shallow portion) and an integrated kinematic wave model (step P2). And the hydrograph of the inundation analysis start point is created according to the runoff analysis result obtained in step P2 (step P3). This hydrograph is transferred to the sediment movement amount prediction unit 22a, and the sediment movement amount prediction unit 22a calculates the sediment concentration according to the riverbed gradient (step P4). In Step P4, for example, the sediment concentration (debris flow concentration) is obtained based on [Formula 2].

[Formula 2]
Cd = (ρtan θ) / {(σ−ρ) (tan φ−tan θ)}
Here, σ: density of gravel (ton / m ³ ), ρ: density of water (ton / m ³ ), φ: internal friction angle of sedimentary sediment, θ: riverbed gradient.

  And about the time when rainfall information exceeded the threshold value of danger determination, the earth and sand according to a density | concentration is added to water, and the debris flow rate is estimated (step P5). On the other hand, the inundation analysis unit 22c calculates the sediment concentration according to the riverbed gradient for each of the above-mentioned dangerous locations (step P6), and sets the debris flow rate corresponding to an arbitrary water amount (that is, for each water amount) (step S6). P7). And inundation analysis part 22c performs inundation analysis according to debris flow, and saves the result in a database (not shown) (Step P8).

  The damage prediction area determination unit 22d receives the predicted debris flow rate from the sediment movement amount prediction unit 22a, searches the inundation analysis result stored in the database by the inundation analysis unit 22c according to the predicted debris flow rate, and obtains the corresponding inundation analysis result. obtain. Then, the damage prediction area determination unit 22d sets the flood analysis result as a damage prediction area (step P9). This damage prediction area is given to the damage prediction amount determination unit 22e, and the damage prediction amount determination unit 22e calculates the damage prediction amount based on the damage prediction area with reference to the population / assets DB 34.

  Note that the damage prediction determination unit 22 performs damage prediction area determination for dangerous locations that exceed the landslide disaster risk threshold, but the damage prediction area obtained as described above is communicated in real time as damage prediction information. It is sent to the municipality via the line 51.

  Referring to FIG. 1, the damage prediction area obtained as described above is given to the evacuation guidance plan generation unit 23. The evacuation guidance plan generation unit 23 includes an evacuation simulation unit 23a, an evacuation place search unit 23b, and an evacuation route generation unit 23c. First, the evacuation simulation unit 23a stores the population in the damage prediction area from the population / assets DB 34. And the disaster vulnerable person from the disaster facility and related facility DB 35. And in the evacuation simulation part 23a, the position of a public facility etc. is grasped | ascertained from various space infrastructure DB37 and public facility DB36, the evacuation of the resident of a damage prediction area is simulated, and a simulation result is obtained.

  The simulation result is given to the evacuation site search unit 23b, and the evacuation site search unit 23b selects a safe evacuation site in the vicinity for each inhabitant from the various space infrastructure DB 37 and the public facility DB 36 according to the simulation result. Then, the evacuation route generation unit 23c searches the map data for the optimal route to the evacuation site and generates an evacuation route. These evacuation places and evacuation routes are sent as evacuation guidance information to the municipalities via the communication line 51 in real time.

  By the way, in the above description, when the risk level is determined, the risk level is determined for each risk point. However, a predetermined area is divided into meshes at a predetermined interval, and each mesh is as described above. Then, the risk level may be determined. For example, a mountain stream or a slope is divided into meshes at a predetermined interval, and a risk determination is performed for each mesh (that is, a dangerous area is divided into meshes at a predetermined interval as a mesh region, The disaster risk threshold value may be obtained and the risk of disaster occurrence for each mesh area may be determined). In this way, it is possible to determine the difference in risk level in units of meshes, and to perform detailed determination.

  Obtain the disaster risk threshold for each dangerous location according to the ground information for each dangerous location and the disaster history indicating the rainfall at the time of disaster occurrence for each dangerous location, and present rainfall information indicating the current rainfall for each dangerous location and the future The forecasted rainfall information indicating the predicted rainfall amount of the disaster and the disaster risk threshold are compared, and when at least one of the current rainfall information and the predicted rainfall information exceeds the disaster risk threshold, the disaster risk information is distributed. It can be applied to distribution of danger information related to various disasters such as landslides, floods, avalanches and snowmelt disasters as well as earth and sand disasters.

It is a block diagram which shows an example of the disaster information service system by this invention with a disaster information delivery system. It is a figure for demonstrating an example of operation | movement of the earth and sand movement potential production | generation part shown in FIG. It is a figure which shows an example of the disaster risk threshold value produced | generated by the earth and sand movement potential production | generation part shown in FIG. It is a figure which shows an example of the disaster risk threshold value produced | generated by the earth and sand movement potential production | generation part shown in FIG. It is a figure for demonstrating operation | movement of the earth and sand disaster occurrence risk determination part shown in FIG. It is a figure which shows the other example of the disaster risk threshold value produced | generated by the earth and sand movement potential production | generation part shown in FIG. It is a figure for demonstrating the other example of operation | movement of the earth and sand movement potential production | generation part shown in FIG. It is a figure which shows the result of having totaled the frequency | count of rainfall, setting a long-term index and a short-term index as a horizontal axis and a vertical axis | shaft, respectively. It is a figure which shows an example of the disaster risk threshold value according to rainfall occurrence frequency. It is a figure which shows the other example of a disaster risk threshold value according to the rain occurrence frequency. It is a figure for demonstrating operation | movement of the damage prediction determination part shown in FIG.

Explanation of symbols

11 Disaster Information Service System 21 Sediment Disaster Risk Determination Unit 22 Damage Prediction Determination Unit 23 Evacuation Guidance Plan Generation Unit 31 Disaster DB
32 Hazardous Location DB
33 measures facility DB
34 Population / Asset DB
35 Disaster vulnerable people and related facilities DB
36 public facilities DB
37 Various space infrastructure DB
41 Ground information distribution system 42 Rainfall information distribution system 21a Sediment movement potential (threshold) generation unit 21b Soil moisture content (relative value) calculation unit 21c Sediment disaster occurrence risk determination unit 22a Sediment movement amount prediction unit 22b Runoff analysis unit 22c Inundation Analysis unit 22d Damage prediction area determination unit 22e Damage prediction amount determination unit 23a Evacuation simulation unit 23b Evacuation place search unit 23c Evacuation route generation unit 51 Communication line

Claims (9)

A disaster information service system that determines the risk of occurrence of a disaster for each dangerous place and distributes disaster risk information as a disaster information service,
Threshold generation means for obtaining a disaster risk threshold for each dangerous location according to the disaster history indicating the ground information for each dangerous location and the amount of rainfall at the time of disaster occurrence for each dangerous location;
Comparing the current rainfall information indicating the current rainfall for each danger spot and the predicted rainfall information indicating the predicted future rainfall value and the disaster risk threshold, at least one of the current rainfall information and the predicted rainfall information is the A disaster information service system comprising: a disaster occurrence risk determination unit that distributes the disaster risk information when a disaster risk threshold is exceeded.   The disaster information service system according to claim 1, wherein the threshold generation unit obtains the disaster risk threshold as a discriminant based on multivariate analysis.   The disaster risk determination means, when the predicted rainfall information exceeds the disaster risk threshold, delivers predetermined first warning information as the disaster risk information. The disaster information service system according to 1 or 2.   The disaster occurrence risk determination means distributes the second warning information defined in advance as the disaster risk information when the current rainfall information exceeds the disaster risk threshold after distributing the first warning information. The disaster information service system according to claim 3, wherein the disaster information service system is provided.   5. The disaster occurrence risk determining means, when distributing the first and second warning information, changes the display color of the dangerous location according to the risk level. Disaster information service system. When the disaster risk information is distributed, runoff analysis means that performs runoff analysis of moisture related to the dangerous location according to the ground information, the current rainfall information, and the predicted rainfall information, and obtains runoff analysis results;
A sediment movement amount prediction means that obtains the sediment concentration according to the ground information based on the outflow analysis result and sets the sediment flow rate to the estimated sediment flow rate,
A database in which the inundation analysis according to the sediment flow rate is performed in advance for each dangerous place and the damaged area is set as the inundation analysis result,
The disaster information service according to any one of claims 1 to 5, further comprising damage prediction area determination means for extracting the flood analysis result from the database according to the estimated sediment flow rate and obtaining a damage prediction area. system.   7. The disaster information service system according to claim 6, wherein the damage prediction area determination means distributes damage prediction information indicating the damage prediction area via a communication line. The evacuation guidance plan generating means for obtaining the damage prediction area and generating evacuation guidance information indicating an evacuation place and an evacuation route by performing an evacuation simulation according to at least the population and the position of the evacuation place related to the dangerous place,
The disaster information service system according to claim 6 or 7, wherein the evacuation guidance information is distributed via a communication line. The dangerous part is divided into a mesh shape at a predetermined interval to be a mesh region,
The threshold generation means obtains a disaster risk threshold for the mesh area,
The disaster information service system according to claim 1, wherein the disaster occurrence risk determination means determines a disaster occurrence risk for each mesh area.

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