JP2004086291A - Production planning method for steel sheet and production method for steel sheet - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a production planning method and a production method of a steel sheet for producing the steel sheet which satisfies a sales plan while performing a stable operation with a high operating ratio. <P>SOLUTION: A production plan generation processing part 12 generates a production plan of the steel sheet. A virtual order allocation processing part 13 allocates a virtual order to the production plan so as to correct the production plan. A virtual order application processing part 14 applies a new order to the virtual order. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2004,JPO

Description

[0001]
[Technical field to which the invention belongs]
The present invention relates to a steel sheet production planning method and a steel sheet manufacturing method.
[0002]
[Prior art]
Iron and steel products are basically manufactured on a make-to-order basis in order to respond to a wide variety of customer specifications. However, non-steel products for specific applications can be described in a sense as inventory replenishment. Orders exist for one to two months, and the manufacturer determines the start of production with reference to the customer's use schedule and actual performance information, formulates a production plan, and leads to actual production. On the other hand, in the production of steel products of the blast furnace method, it is most desirable to maximize the production lot in order to minimize the production cost and to stably maintain the production at the upper limit of the facility capacity. In other words, orders include fluctuations in demand such as seasonal fluctuations, while the manufacturing side is aiming for stable operation with high availability. Therefore, in the production plan of steel products, delicate judgment is required in consideration of both the yield and the delivery date.
[0003]
[Problems to be solved by the invention]
The present invention has been made in order to solve the above-described problems, and while performing stable operation at a high operation rate, it is possible to manufacture a steel sheet that satisfies a sales plan. An object of the present invention is to provide a production planning method and a method for manufacturing a steel sheet.
[0004]
[Means for Solving the Problems]
(1) A production planning method for a steel sheet according to claim 1 of the present invention is a production planning step for producing a production plan for a steel sheet, and a virtual order for modifying the production plan by assigning a virtual order to the production plan. And an order assignment step.
[0005]
(2) The steel sheet production planning method according to claim 2 of the present invention is the steel sheet production planning method according to claim 1, further comprising a virtual order assignment step of assigning a new order to the virtual order.
[0006]
(3) In the steel sheet production planning method according to claim 3 of the present invention, in the steel sheet production planning method according to claim 1 or 2, the production plan creation step includes a lot aggregation process for integrating a plurality of lots. The virtual order allocating step includes allocating a virtual order to a production plan created by lot aggregation and making a correction.
[0007]
(4) In the steel sheet production planning method according to claim 4 of the present invention, in the steel sheet production planning method according to any one of claims 1 to 3, the virtual order allocating step includes evaluating value and / or inventory information. On the basis of the above, the processing for determining how far the virtual order manufacturing stage should be advanced.
[0008]
(5) In the steel sheet production planning method according to claim 5 of the present invention, in the steel sheet production planning method according to any one of claims 1 to 4, a step of classifying order information, and the classified order information. And a step of creating a virtual order in consideration of the analysis result and inventory.
[0009]
(6) A method for manufacturing a steel sheet according to claim 6 of the present invention is to manufacture a steel sheet by executing a manufacturing plan created by the production planning method according to any one of claims 1 to 5.
[0010]
BEST MODE FOR CARRYING OUT THE INVENTION
Embodiment 1 FIG.
FIG. 1 is a configuration diagram of a system to which a method for manufacturing a steel sheet according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention is applied. This system includes an order prediction processing unit 11, a production plan creation processing unit 12, a virtual order assignment processing unit 13, a virtual order allocation processing unit 14, a database 15, and a steel plate manufacturing facility 20. In the database 15, each data of a new order, an actual order received, a production plan, a facility reserve, a virtual order, a production plan (correction), and a production result is registered. The order prediction processing unit 11, the production plan creation processing unit 12, the virtual order assignment processing unit 13, and the virtual order assignment processing unit 14 are realized by a computer.
[0011]
The order prediction processing unit 11 predicts future orders based on past order results, finds orders that are likely to be needed in the near future, and registers them in the database 15 as virtual orders. The production plan creation processing unit 12 formulates a steel plate production plan, and performs each processing of a retrospective plan, an upper process production lot consolidation, and a down plan, and formulates a steel plate production plan and registers it in the database 15. The virtual order assignment processing unit 13 assigns the above-mentioned virtual order to the remaining capacity of the production plan. The virtual order assignment processing unit 14 assigns a new order to a virtual order already planned (including a virtual order whose production is already in progress). The steel sheet manufacturing equipment 20 is an equipment for manufacturing a steel sheet based on the output manufacturing plan described above.
[0012]
Although the system of the first embodiment is configured as described above, the order prediction processing unit 11, the production plan creation processing unit 12, the virtual order assignment processing unit 13, and the virtual order allocation processing unit 14 operate in cooperation with each other. At the same time, they can be operated independently. In the first embodiment, a case will be described in which the order prediction processing unit 11 operates alone and the production plan creation processing unit 12, the virtual order assignment processing unit 13, and the virtual order allocation processing unit 14 operate in cooperation.
[0013]
FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing the order prediction processing by the order prediction processing unit 11 of FIG. As a premise of the processing by the order prediction processing unit 11, in this system, every time an order is input from a customer, the order information is registered in the database 15 as the order result. Then, when registering them in the database 15 as order results, they are classified according to order attributes. The key of the classification at that time is customer, product type, material chemical composition, product thickness, product width, weight, specification, and the like. Further, each time a customer picks up a product, the storage period from the product delivery date to the pick-up date is calculated and added to the above-mentioned order record. The storage period depends on the order frequency, but is set, for example, to six months or one year from the last order.
[0014]
Also, it is assumed that a priority index is added to this order record in advance. The priority index indicates the relative priority of the order by expressing the weight of each attribute of the order by numerical evaluation. The execution of the order prediction by the order prediction processing unit 11 needs to be periodically executed according to a change in the order status or the production status. For example, once a day, once every three days, or the like. It may be executed each time a new order is received.
[0015]
The order prediction processing by the order prediction processing unit 11 in FIG. 2 will be described.
(S11) The order prediction processing unit 11 inputs data on past order results accumulated in the database 15.
(S12) The order prediction processing unit 11 classifies the input order result data for each of the above-described order attributes.
(S13) The order prediction processing unit 11 calculates an approximate curve of the actual order received using a statistical method for each classified order attribute. As a method, for example, multiple regression analysis is used. Using the approximated curve of the actual orders received, virtual order data of the same attribute is newly created in a predetermined amount within a certain period of time. Here, the certain period is set, for example, between two weeks and four weeks. The prediction period may be set individually according to the construction period and repeatability of the order.
[0016]
(S14) The order prediction processor 11 extracts a prediction result having a higher priority index from the prediction results described above, and repeats the following processing in descending order of the priority index. It should be noted that the prediction result, that is, the virtual order has a plurality of attributes, and the priority index is represented by a sum total obtained by numerically evaluating the weight of each attribute. That is, the virtual order can also have a priority index (however, if the attribute is the same as the actual order received, the priority index is the same), and the order is processed in descending order of the priority index.
[0017]
(S15) The order prediction processor 11 determines whether the total amount of the actual order and the virtual order already registered exceeds a predetermined amount. In other words, the order prediction processing unit 11 calculates the estimated inventory amount in each process for the virtual order group having the same attribute and determines whether the estimated inventory amount is below the preset inventory amount lower limit value or the inventory amount. Determine if the upper limit is exceeded. When the planned stock amount exceeds the stock amount upper limit, a new virtual order is not registered.
[0018]
(S16) If the order prediction processing section 11 determines in the above processing (S15) that the virtual order can be registered, then the order prediction processing section 11 next executes the registered and unallocated virtual order processed up to the previous time. Then, determine whether it is insufficient. Even if the planned stock quantity is lower than the preset stock quantity lower limit value, if the registered and unallocated virtual orders processed up to the previous time are sufficient, a new temporary order is not registered.
[0019]
(S17) If the order prediction processing unit 11 determines in the above processing (S16) that the registered and unallocated virtual orders are insufficient, the order prediction processing unit 11 performs the allocation to the new virtual order having the attribute. An evaluation value serving as an index is added and registered in the database 15. However, it is limited to a range in which the total stock amount calculated in each process does not exceed a preset stock amount upper limit. The evaluation value is, for example, a value obtained by multiplying each of the following index values by a weight coefficient.
(1) Number of customers to whom the virtual order can be allocated (2) Average number of days from when the virtual order can be delivered to when the customer actually completes the collection (3) Ease of allocation and allocation Condition setting considering balance with loss (cost)
Regarding the above (1), when the numerical value is large, the probability of appropriation is high, so it can be determined that the production can be advanced to the final product side. Regarding the above (2), the smaller the numerical value is, the lower the possibility of accumulating the product inventory is. Therefore, it can be judged that the production may be advanced to the final product side. Regarding the above (3), for example, looking at the width condition, (1) if loosened, the possibility of coping will increase, but if the width is reduced, the probability of occurrence of loss will increase. (2) if severe, the loss will decrease. It is difficult to allocate. Since the evaluation value needs to be reviewed periodically, the evaluation value calculation is executed at a constant frequency (for example, once a day).
[0021]
FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing the processing of the production plan creation processing unit 12, the virtual order assignment processing unit 13, and the virtual order assignment processing unit 14.
(S21) First, the production plan creation processing unit 12 inputs a new steel plate order from the customer from the database 15. The order has attributes such as order quantity (weight), dimensions, delivery date, and customer.
(S22) The virtual order assignment processing unit 14 performs a process of assigning a new order to the virtual order already assigned in the virtual order assignment process (S29).
[0022]
FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing the contents of the virtual order allocation processing by the virtual order allocation processing unit 14. In the first embodiment, the processing (S31) is omitted.
[0023]
(S32) The virtual order assignment processing unit 14 checks the new order with a virtual order that has been assigned (one that has been assigned by the process (S28) described below) and an actual order has not been assigned. It is determined whether or not there is a virtual order whose attribute matches that of the new order. The determination of attribute matching at the time of virtual order allocation is performed based on the sum of numerical evaluations for each attribute. Orders with higher evaluation values for attribute matching are assigned preferentially. Since a plurality of new orders may have the same attribute, a priority index is added to each virtual order in advance. Here, the priority index is represented by the sum of numerical values of the weights of the respective attributes. If there are a plurality of orders having the same attribute matching evaluation value, and if the priority indices of the order groups are different, the orders are applied in descending order of the priority indices. The priority index is basically the same as the concept of the priority index in order prediction, but is further subdivided than the priority index in order prediction.
[0024]
(S33) If there is a virtual order whose attribute matches the new order, the virtual order assignment processing unit 14 assigns the new order to the virtual order. If there are a plurality of orders having the same attribute matching evaluation value, the orders are applied in descending order of the priority index. Since the virtual order starts production ahead of time by predicting the input of the actual order in advance, it is necessary to replace the actual order with the actual order as the production progresses. From the viewpoint of the consumer, the delivery time is shortened by the amount of time that elapses from the start of production to the allocation.
[0025]
In order to make the most of this advantage, it is efficient to assign as a target of a virtual order, 1) an order with a short delivery date, 2) an order with a long production period, and the like. The above 1) has the same meaning as replacing the virtual order with the production slot for emergency materials and actively operating it.
[0026]
(S34) The virtual order allocation processing unit 14 creates a down plan for the virtual order subjected to the allocation processing in correspondence with the final form of the new order. This down plan is the same as the process (S27) described later.
[0027]
(S35) The virtual order assignment processing unit 14 registers the production plan created by the above process (S33) in the database 15.
(S35) The virtual order assignment processing unit 14 examines whether there is an unconsidered new order. If there is a new order that has not yet been examined, the above process (S32) and subsequent steps are repeated.
[0028]
Here, returning to FIG. 3 again, the processing of the production plan creation processing unit 12 will be described. When the above-described virtual order allocation processing (S22) is completed, the following production plan creation processing is performed for new orders and non-embedded orders that have not been targeted in the virtual order allocation processing.
[0029]
(S23) The production plan creation processing unit 12 executes a retrospective planning process on the above data. Here, the retrospective plan is based on the information on the delivery date of each order group, the passing process, and the standard construction period for each process. It is to be.
[0030]
FIG. 7 is an explanatory diagram showing the execution status of the retrospective plan. The horizontal axis in FIG. 7 represents time in days, and the vertical axis represents each process. Steelmaking is the upper process. The number on the order group box is the weight of the order. When the five orders Z, A, B, C, and D are traced back from the delivery date (delivery date) while integrating the processing time and travel time for each passing process of the order, the manufacturing start that attracted the delivery date the most was started. Time information is obtained.
[0031]
(S24) The production plan creation processing unit 12 executes an upper process production lot consolidation process on the result of the above-mentioned retroactive planning. In this process, the order group in the upper process is consolidated into lots. Lot arrangement conditions include chemical composition, casting width, and upper and lower limit weight of the lot. Within the weight range in which lots can be consolidated, order groups having similar attributes are grouped and arranged as a production plan.
[0032]
FIG. 8 is an explanatory diagram showing the execution status of the upper-stage production lot consolidation process. In this example, since there is a condition that the size of the steel making lot is 50 to 80 tons, the orders A and B are aggregated to 70 tons on the first day. Because order A was moved one day in advance, order C is also moved one day in advance to the second day. Order D can be moved forward, but unlike orders A and C, the delivery date does not change even if steelmaking is advanced, because it passes through a process called plating, which is a strict production timing. For this reason, he did not dare move it forward and left it on the original fourth day.
[0033]
(S25) The production plan creation processing unit 12 inspects whether or not the upper process equipment has extra capacity as a result of the upper process manufacturing lot consolidation process.
(S26) If the production plan creation processing unit 12 determines that there is spare capacity in the upper process equipment, the production plan creation processing unit 12 executes processing for registering data on the available equipment. For each day and for each facility, the remaining capacity of how many hours or tons of additional production is possible is registered in the database 15.
[0034]
FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram illustrating an execution state of the facility remaining information registration processing. For steelmaking, which is the upper process equipment, the remaining capacity for the upper limit of 80 tons per day is calculated. For example, on the first day, there is a reserve of 10 tons, but since there is already a plan of 70 tons, it can be executed as it is. On the other hand, on the second day, the planned completion is 30 tons with respect to the lower limit weight of 50 tons, so that it is understood that additional planning is required.
[0035]
(S27) The production plan creation processing unit 12 executes a down plan based on the result of the upper production lot consolidation processing. In this process, a production plan from the upper process to the final process is sequentially reduced from the upper process to the final process, and the expected delivery date is recalculated.
[0036]
FIG. 10 is an explanatory diagram showing the execution status of the downlink plan. Orders A and C can be delivered one day in advance.
[0037]
(S28) The virtual order assignment processing unit 13 executes the virtual order assignment and the downlink plan based on the result of the downlink plan described above. The purpose is to maximize the production lot to minimize the production cost and to stably maintain the production at the upper limit of the facility capacity.
[0038]
The virtual order assignment processing unit 13 maximizes the capacity of the facility when the data of the facility capacity exists in the database 15. Assign a virtual order that has already been registered and has not yet started manufacturing. In addition, the virtual order assignment processing unit 13 creates a downlink plan of the virtual order assigned above. Note that the determination of which process the virtual order should be advanced uses both the setting of the order attribute individually and the determination according to the stock status. The setting of individual order attributes is a fixed handling of up to which stage the virtual order is manufactured. On the other hand, the determination according to the stock status is, for example, dynamically evaluating how far the manufacturing proceeds, by numerically evaluating the performance of the stock yard in each process. The details of this process (S28) will be described in detail later with reference to FIGS.
[0039]
(S29) The production plan creation processing unit 12 registers the above-mentioned production plan in the database 15, and outputs the production plan to the steel plate production equipment 20 to produce the steel plate.
[0040]
FIGS. 5 and 6 are flowcharts showing details of the above processing (S28) of the virtual order assignment processing unit 13. First, the virtual order assignment process will be described with reference to FIG.
(S41) The virtual order assignment processing unit 13 checks whether there is available capacity based on the available capacity data in the database 15. If there is no remaining capacity, the process ends.
(S42) The virtual order assignment processing unit 13 extracts the virtual order having the highest priority index from the virtual orders in the database 15. This priority index is the same as that in the allocation processing.
(S43) The virtual order assignment processing unit 13 extracts the earliest one (the one at the forefront when viewed on the time axis) from the available capacity space.
(S44) The virtual order assignment processing unit 13 determines whether or not a virtual order can be assigned to the remaining capacity frame based on, for example, the weight of the capacity order.
[0041]
(S45) When it is determined that the virtual order can be allocated to the remaining capacity space, the virtual order allocation processing unit 13 determines the allocation.
(S46) If the virtual order allocation processing unit 13 determines that the virtual order cannot be allocated to the remaining capacity space, the virtual order allocation processing unit 13 determines whether there is a remaining capacity room. When it is determined that there is no remaining capacity margin, the process proceeds to the process (S48) described later.
[0042]
(S47) When the virtual order allocation processing unit 13 determines that there is a remaining capacity margin, the virtual order allocation processing unit 13 extracts the next left-justified capacity margin, shifts to the above processing (S44), and performs the above processing. The processing of (S44) to (S47) is repeated.
(S48) After the above-mentioned processing (S45) or (S46) is completed, the virtual order assignment processing unit 13 determines whether there is an unconsidered (remaining) virtual order. Returning to the processing (S41), the subsequent processing is repeated. If there are no unconsidered (remaining) virtual orders, the process ends.
[0043]
Next, the process of the virtual order down plan will be described with reference to FIG. This down plan is performed after the processing of FIG. 5 ends.
(S51) The virtual order assignment processing unit 13 performs processing sequentially from the most upstream place. For example, a hot rolling mill and a cold rolling mill are sequentially processed.
(S52) The virtual order assignment processing unit 13 calculates and obtains the stock amount of the place. The calculation of the stock amount is obtained by calculating the daily receiving / dispensing amount in the planning target period based on the latest production plan.
[0044]
(S53) The virtual order assignment processing unit 13 determines whether there is a virtual order product in the place. If there is no virtual order product in the place, the process proceeds to the process (S57) described later, and the next place (downstream side) is examined.
(S54) If the virtual order allocation processing unit 13 determines that there is a product of the virtual order in the place, whether the inventory amount of the place is larger than the set value and there is a free space equal to or more than the predetermined capacity. Judge. If this condition is not satisfied, the study on the storage site ends. If this condition is satisfied, this process is repeated until the inventory management level of the yard is reached. In this way, the virtual order down process is determined without affecting the inventory of the actual order. When the product is likely to overflow in the storage, an alarm is output to prompt the customer to pick up the product, for example.
[0045]
(S55) If it is determined that the above condition is satisfied, the virtual order assignment processing unit 13 determines whether or not acceptance in the next process is possible based on the operating state of the corresponding facility. If it is determined that the reception in the next step is impossible, the process proceeds to the process (S57) described later, and the next storage space is examined.
[0046]
(S56) When it is determined that the virtual order can be accepted in the next process, the virtual order assignment processing unit 13 inputs the virtual order having the higher evaluation value from the virtual orders placed in the place to the next process. For example, when the storage site is a storage site for a hot rolling process, the storage site is put into the hot rolling process. In addition, when the storage site is a storage site in the cold rolling process, the storage site is put into the cold rolling process.
[0047]
(S57) The virtual order assignment processing unit 13 determines whether there is an unexamined yard, and if there is an unexamined yard, a yard located further downstream (for example, the yard is a hot rolled yard). The above processing (S51) to (S56) is repeated for the cold rolling site. When there is no unexamined storage, that is, when the examination of the lowermost storage is completed, this processing ends.
[0048]
FIG. 11 is an explanatory diagram illustrating the execution status of the virtual order assignment. The registered and unassigned virtual orders are read out, and the search for manufacturing timings that can be allocated to the available equipment is repeated in the order of earliest virtual delivery date. In this example, the virtual order E is allocated to steelmaking on the second day by 50 tons, the virtual order F is manufactured by steelmaking on the fourth day by 30 tons, and the virtual order G is manufactured by steelmaking on the fifth day by 60 tons. Reflect the revised production plan in the production plan.
[0049]
FIG. 12 is an explanatory diagram illustrating a state in which production has progressed and the virtual order has been applied to the actual order. The virtual order E was rolled in the hot rolling process on the third day and was in a hot (HOT) coil inventory, but on the sixth day, the real order E was input and used for the virtual order. As a result, while the standard construction period from steelmaking to hot rolling, cold rolling and delivery was four days, the production was completed in two days from cold rolling to delivery. From a consumer's point of view, the delivery time is reduced by two days. Similarly, the virtual order G realizes the shortening of the construction period of two days, and the virtual order F realizes the shortening of the construction period of one day.
[0050]
As described above, in the first embodiment, when drafting a production plan for a steel sheet, a virtual order is created by analyzing the actual orders received so far and predicting future orders, and there is room for manufacturing equipment. In this case, by assigning a virtual order to the margin, it is possible to reduce the manufacturing cost while maximizing the operation rate of the upper process, which greatly affects the manufacturing cost, and at the same time, for the orderer side, the short delivery time for the advance start period Can also be realized.
[0051]
Embodiment 2. FIG.
In the second embodiment, the production order creation process and the virtual order assignment process are linked, and the virtual order assignment process is operated independently. FIG. 13 is a flowchart showing the processes of the production plan creation process and the virtual order assignment process. Although this flowchart does not include the virtual order assignment process, the virtual order assignment process (see the flowchart in FIG. 4) is performed independently. Since the processing of FIG. 4 is performed independently, the processing starts with the processing of reading out a new order (S31). Note that the new order refers to the original new order excluding the processed one.
[0052]
Embodiment 3 FIG.
Further, in the above-described first embodiment, an example has been described in which the production plan is performed based on the retrospective plan, the upper process production lot, and the down plan, but the production plan of the present invention is not limited to this example.
[0053]
【The invention's effect】
As described above, according to the present invention, a production plan is created, and the production plan is modified by assigning a virtual order to the production plan. It is possible to manufacture a steel sheet satisfying a sales plan while manufacturing a stable operation with a high operation rate in the production lot formation of the upper process.
[Brief description of the drawings]
FIG. 1 is a configuration diagram of a system to which a method for manufacturing a steel sheet according to a first embodiment of the present invention is applied.
FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing an order prediction process by an order prediction processing unit in FIG. 1;
FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing processing of a production plan creation processing unit, a virtual order assignment processing unit, and a virtual order assignment processing unit;
FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing a process of a virtual order assignment processing unit.
FIG. 5 is a flowchart illustrating a process (part 1) of a virtual order assignment processing unit.
FIG. 6 is a flowchart illustrating a process (part 2) of a virtual order assignment processing unit.
FIG. 7 is an explanatory diagram showing a state after execution of a retrospective plan;
FIG. 8 is an explanatory diagram showing a state after execution of upper process manufacturing lot consolidation.
FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram showing a state after calculating the remaining capacity information of the upper process.
FIG. 10 is an explanatory diagram showing a state after execution of a downlink plan.
FIG. 11 is an explanatory diagram showing a state after the allocation of the virtual order to the remaining capacity of the facility is executed.
FIG. 12 is an explanatory diagram showing a state after the allocation of the real order to the virtual order is executed.
FIG. 13 is a flowchart illustrating processing of a production plan creation processing unit and a virtual order assignment processing unit according to the second embodiment of the present invention.
[Explanation of symbols]
11 Order prediction processing unit 12 Production plan creation processing unit 13 Virtual order assignment processing unit 14 Virtual order allocation processing unit 15 Database 20 Steel plate manufacturing equipment

Claims (6)

A production plan creation process for creating a steel plate production plan;
A virtual order assignment step of modifying the production plan by assigning a virtual order to the production plan. The method of claim 1, further comprising a virtual order allocation step of applying a new order to the virtual order. The production plan creation step includes a lot aggregation process for aggregating a plurality of lots, and the virtual order assignment step assigns a virtual order to the production plan created by the lot aggregation and performs correction. 3. The production planning method for a steel sheet according to claim 1, wherein: 4. The virtual order allocating step according to claim 1, wherein the virtual order allocating step includes a process of determining how far to advance the virtual order manufacturing stage based on the evaluation value and / or inventory information. Steel sheet production planning method. 5. The method according to claim 1, further comprising a step of classifying the order information, a step of analyzing the classified order information, and a step of creating a virtual order in consideration of the analysis result and the stock. The production planning method for steel sheets described in Crab. A method for manufacturing a steel sheet, comprising manufacturing a steel sheet by executing a manufacturing plan created by the production planning method according to any one of claims 1 to 5.

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