JP2003322683A - Earthquake damage predicting method, diagram, and program - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To quickly and easily predict, in an apprehensive way, the damage on a building based on a probabilistic standard with an earthquake-resistance characteristic value for the building and the intensity of earthquake provided. <P>SOLUTION: In an earthquake damage prediction diagram 1 where the inside of an outer frame 2 is 2-dimensionally sorted with an inner frame 3, levels of earthquake intensity such as earthquake scale are arrayed in row direction while levels of structural earthquake-resistance index (Is value) for buildings are arrayed in column direction. So, an arbitrary square represents a predicted condition level comprising a couple of earthquake intensity and Is value of building. A probabilistic occurrence distribution of building damage mode which is calculated by a fragility model, etc., according to the predicted condition level is acquired, and a representative mode which represents the distribution is displayed as display patterns 4a and 4b, etc. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2004,JPO

Description

Detailed Description of the Invention

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to an earthquake damage prediction method, a chart and a program.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art Conventionally, there have been various methods for predicting damage to buildings due to an earthquake. For example, in the macro, building information such as the structural type of the building is used, and in the micro, the individual information of the building is acquired and the strength is analyzed.
The seismic resistance of the building was examined and the damage was predicted when a specific earthquake was assumed. In this way, the damage prediction that uniquely corresponds the damage to the seismic resistance value of the building does not reflect the fact that even if the seismic resistance value of the building is the same, the degree of damage to the building will vary in an actual earthquake. There was a problem. Therefore, as a seismic resistance characteristic value of a building, a structural seismic resistance index (hereinafter referred to as an Is value), which was developed to diagnose an existing building as easily as possible, is used to damage a group of buildings with a specific Is value. A fragility model using the so-called Is value, which is represented probabilistically (hereinafter referred to as the Is model), has been proposed (Reference 1: Hayashi, Suzuki, Miyakoshi, Watanabe “Existing RC buildings using seismic diagnosis results” Earthquake risk display ", Proceedings of the Regional Safety Association, No.2, 2000.11).

[0003]

However, this I
In the s model, if the Is value and the intensity of the earthquake are specified, the distribution of damage modes can be obtained, but in order to obtain practical information from the distribution, it is necessary to interpret the results in the light of past earthquake damage. there were. Furthermore, more work is required to compare the Is value and the intensity of the earthquake, and to combine them to understand the full picture of the damage.
Therefore, there is a problem that practical information cannot be obtained unless the person has expert knowledge about earthquake damage and fragility in the past. Therefore, the Is model alone has a problem in that even if the earthquake intensity is announced in the area, the disaster countermeasure person cannot quickly and easily make a damage forecast and utilize it for disaster countermeasures.

The present invention has been made in view of the above problems, and when a seismic resistance characteristic value of a building and the strength of the earthquake are given, damage to the building based on a probabilistic criterion can be performed quickly and easily. Moreover, the purpose is to provide earthquake damage prediction methods, charts, and programs that can be predicted in an easy-to-understand form.

[0005]

In order to solve the above problems, according to the invention of claim 1, the probability of occurrence of a damage mode representing damage to a building due to an earthquake is determined by the strength of the earthquake and the seismic resistance value of the building. Using a fragility model that is a function of and for each of the expected condition categories in which the fluctuation range of the earthquake intensity and the seismic resistance value of the building is divided into predetermined ranges, respectively,
Correspondence between the expected condition classification and the representative mode is calculated by calculating a probability distribution of occurrence probability of damage modes of a group of buildings, and identifying a damage mode representative of the probability distribution of damage modes of the group of buildings as a representative mode. A seismic damage prediction method is used, in which a damage is predicted by the representative mode having the corresponding relationship when a relationship is provided and the expected condition category is specified. Therefore, by identifying the expected condition category corresponding to the earthquake intensity and the range of the seismic resistance value of the building, it is possible to immediately predict the representative mode of the damage mode of the buildings included in the expected condition category from the corresponding relationship. it can.

Here, the damage mode of a building is an individual type of classification of the damage state that has occurred in the building. The classification criteria may be quantitative or qualitative as long as the damage rate is obtained. The representative mode is a specific damage mode that represents the occurrence probability distribution of the damage mode. Any representative may be used as long as it is based on clear standards.

According to a second aspect of the present invention, in the earthquake damage prediction method according to the first aspect, the seismic damage characteristic value of the building is a structural seismic resistance index obtained by a seismic resistance diagnosis of the building. Use the predictive method. Here, the structural seismic resistance index (Is value) is a relative amount of continuous seismic performance of a building, and is a reinforced concrete structure (RC construction, SR construction).
There are well-known guidelines for each of C structure and steel structure (S structure), and the calculation method thereof is defined. Therefore, since the Is value is used, whether the building is RC or SRC or S
Since it is possible to evaluate with a single index regardless of whether it is a building, it is possible to make a common damage forecast for a group of buildings that are mixed.

According to the third aspect of the invention, in the diagram arranged in a two-dimensional manner, the intensity of the earthquake divided into a predetermined range is taken in the first arrangement direction, and the second arrangement direction is taken. Is the seismic resistance characteristic value of the building that is divided into a predetermined range, and the expected damage to the building for each of the earthquake intensity classification and the expected condition classification corresponding to the seismic resistance characteristic value classification of the building. An earthquake damage prediction chart is used, which is characterized by displaying modes. Therefore, if the earthquake intensity and the seismic resistance value that should be expected to be damaged are specified, the expected condition classification on the chart is specified, and the earthquake damage can be predicted simply by looking at the indications displayed there. it can. In addition, the damage forecast over a wide range of earthquake intensity and seismic resistance values can be overlooked on the chart, and the overall characteristics of the expected damage can be understood simply by looking at the chart.

According to the invention of claim 4, in the earthquake damage prediction chart of claim 3, the damage mode of the displayed building is the probability of occurrence of the damage mode representing damage to the building due to the earthquake. Using a fragility model that is a function of the strength and the seismic resistance characteristic value of the building, a configuration that is a representative mode specified from the occurrence probability distribution of the damage mode predicted in the prediction condition classification is used. for that reason,
If the earthquake intensity and the seismic resistance value that should be expected to be damaged are specified, the expected condition classification on the chart is specified, and just by looking at the display shown there The identified representative mode can be expected. Therefore, the user of the earthquake damage prediction chart can make a prediction without the work requiring specialized knowledge of examining the probability distribution of occurrence of the damage mode and considering the representative mode.

In the invention according to claim 5, in the earthquake damage prediction chart according to claim 3 or 4, the structure in which the seismic resistance characteristic value of the building is a structural seismic resistance index obtained by seismic resistance diagnosis of the building is used. Therefore, since the Is value is used, regardless of whether the building is RC, SRC, or S, it can be evaluated with a single index. It can be performed.

According to the sixth aspect of the present invention, there is provided a process of storing, as numerical data, a fragility model which is a function of a damage mode representing a damage to a building caused by an earthquake and a seismic resistance value of the building. , By processing the stored numerical data of the fragility model by data processing, for each of the expected condition categories obtained by dividing the fluctuation range of the earthquake intensity and the seismic resistance value of the building into predetermined ranges,
The damage mode that represents the probability distribution of the damage modes of the building group is specified as the representative mode by the process of calculating the probability distribution of the damage modes of the expected building group and the set default instructions or input instructions. Process and
A step of providing and storing a correspondence relationship between the expected condition classification and the representative mode, and a step of outputting a display according to the stored correspondence relationship when the expected condition classification or the type of the representative mode is input. A seismic damage prediction program that causes a computer to execute and is used. Therefore, first, the numerical data of the fragility model is stored in the computer. When the numerical data is processed by a computer, the probability distribution of occurrence of the damage mode of the building group included in the range of the earthquake intensity of the expected condition category and the seismic resistance value of the building is calculated as numerical data. Then, when the damage mode representative of the damage mode is designated by the set default instruction or the input instruction, the damage mode representative of the distribution is calculated from the numerical data of the occurrence probability distribution of the damage mode of the building group. Is specified as the representative mode. This representative mode is stored in the computer in association with expected condition categories. Therefore, when the expected condition category and the type of the representative mode are input to the computer, the display can be output based on the correspondence relationship stored in the computer.

In the process of storing the numerical data of the fragility model, a method of storing the numerical data previously stored in the storage medium in a storage device such as a memory or a hard disk of a computer can be adopted. Furthermore, the fragility model is represented by mathematical formulas such as theoretical formulas, regression formulas, approximate formulas, and the coefficients and constants thereof are stored in a computer,
You may write the calculation procedure of the numerical formula which used them in the program, and calculate and memorize each numerical data.

According to a seventh aspect of the invention, in the earthquake damage prediction program according to the sixth aspect, a structure in which the seismic resistance characteristic value of the building is a structural seismic resistance index obtained by seismic resistance diagnosis of the building is used. Therefore, since the Is value is used, regardless of whether the building is RC, SRC, or S, it can be evaluated with a single index. It can be performed.

[0014]

BEST MODE FOR CARRYING OUT THE INVENTION Embodiments of the present invention will be described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. First, an embodiment of an earthquake damage prediction chart according to the present invention will be described. Figure 1
FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of an embodiment of an earthquake damage prediction chart according to the present invention.

Earthquake Damage Prediction Chart 1 (Earthquake Damage Prediction Chart)
As shown in FIG. 1, the outer frame 2 is provided, and the inside of the outer frame 2 is defined by the inner frame 3 ... For example, 6 rows in the horizontal direction (first direction) and the vertical direction (second direction). It is divided into squares such as 4 rows. Each square is marked with a pattern that distinguishes the expected damage mode due to the earthquake. Each pattern is a pattern with features and shades that are easy to distinguish visually, and is color-coded as necessary.

In FIG. 1, the display patterns 4a, 4b, 4c,
Reference numerals 4d, 4e, and 4f represent damage modes of no damage mode, minor mode, small damage mode, medium damage mode, large damage mode, and collapse mode, respectively. In the following description, if there is no risk of misunderstanding, the mode may be omitted and the collapse mode may be simply referred to as collapse. Legend 5 shows the correspondence between the damage mode and the display pattern.
It should be noted that the description of the arrows and “magnitude of ground motion”, “Is value”, etc. in the figure may be omitted. The legend can be omitted if unnecessary.

Earthquake damage prediction The row direction in Fig. 1 is divided into the magnitude of ground motion, that is, the intensity of the earthquake, and is divided into seismic intensity 5 strong, seismic intensity 6 weak, seismic intensity 6 strong, and seismic intensity 7 from left to right in the figure. Has been done. This seismic intensity classification is based on the seismic intensity class that has been adopted by the Japan Meteorological Agency since 1996, and the measurement method is based on the measurement seismograph. The seismic intensity of 5 to 7 is generally considered to be the range where the earthquake affects the building, but a wider range of seismic intensity may be adopted. The seismic intensity is a very useful category because it is announced by the Japan Meteorological Agency at the time of the earthquake, but if necessary, you can set your own category based on the measured values of the seismic intensity meter.

Earthquake Damage Prediction In the column direction of FIG. 1, the Is value of a building is divided, and the Is value is divided from 0 to 0.2 by 0.2, and the maximum value becomes 1.2. The numbers shown are the upper limit values of the categories. Since the Is value is a continuous value, this division is an example, and it may be divided into any size. However, since the Is value expresses the seismic performance controlled by various factors with one index, it is useful to consider the probability of damage in the damage prediction based on the Is value.
For that purpose, it is preferable to set the width of the Is value division so that the number of buildings to be evaluated is a number that is appropriate as a statistical group.

Earthquake Damage Prediction An arbitrary cell in FIG. 1 corresponds to a prediction condition category representing the above-mentioned prediction conditions (set of seismic intensity and Is value category). The damage mode specified for each expected condition category is displayed in an arbitrary cell in this figure. Therefore, the earthquake damage prediction diagram 1 is a diagram visually showing the correspondence between the prediction condition categories and the damage modes.

If the damage mode displayed on each square is an actual earthquake and the damage rate can be obtained by the classification, the type (mode) according to various classification criteria should be adopted according to the purpose of damage prediction. You can In Figure 1, the damage levels are categorized mainly from a quantitative point of view: no damage, minor damage, small damage,
The types of medium damage, large damage, and collapse are adopted. As another example, it is possible to adopt types such as habitable, evacuation required, only entry possible, and no entry, which are classified mainly from a qualitative point of view on the degree of functional damage. Further, any classification standard may be used as long as the specific damage state is classified into any type. Therefore, detailed description of the individual definitions of the above types will be omitted.

Next, a method of identifying the damage mode corresponding to each expected condition classification will be described. Each prediction condition category corresponds to an event that an earthquake having an earthquake intensity with a certain variation width acts on a group of buildings having various individual Is values. Further, as described above, the damage prediction itself based on the Is value has the character of a probability expected value. Therefore, a single damage mode rarely corresponds to any expected condition classification, and various damage modes are usually mixed in the building group.

In order to predict such a damage mode, a method of collecting statistical data of damages of earthquakes actually occurred in the past and making a probability distribution model of the damage modes actually occurred can be adopted. The inventor has arrived at the present invention by paying attention to the usefulness of the Is model proposed in Document 1 as one of the probability distribution models of damage occurrence.

In Reference 1, the Is value distribution of the buildings in the damaged area of the Hyogoken Nanbu Earthquake is estimated, and the actual damage rate statistics compiled for each damage mode and building classification are reproduced,
A fragility model (Is model), which is applied to an individual building, is created by identifying the fragility parameter. The Is model is a mathematical model based on past statistical data that gives a probability distribution of damage modes when an earthquake of a specific strength acts on a building having a specific Is value.

2 and 3 are examples of a conceptual diagram for explaining the Is model and a conceptual diagram of a fragility curve.
FIG. 2 shows a distribution of damage modes when a building having a specific Is value is subjected to an earthquake of a specific strength by a band graph 6. Band graph 6 has no damage mode 6
a, minor mode 6b, small mode 6c, medium mode 6
d, wreck mode 6e, and collapse mode 6f. The horizontal axis represents the occurrence probability, and a scale of cumulative occurrence probability with the full scale being 100% is provided.

From FIG. 2, it can be seen that, for example, when the building has a certain seismic intensity, the probability of being in a damage mode without damage is about 8%, and the probability of being in a collapse damage mode is about 9%. In Figure 2, a set consisting of six damage modes and their respective occurrence probabilities (no damage; 8%, ..., Collapse; 9%)
Gives the probability distribution of the damage mode.

When the occurrence probability distribution of a building having a specific Is value is plotted for each earthquake intensity (ground motion velocity), FIG.
The fragility curve of is obtained. FIG. 3 is a graph in which curves 8a to 8e are plotted with the horizontal axis representing the ground motion velocity representing the intensity of an earthquake and the vertical axis representing the probability of occurrence. Here, for example, the curve 8a indicates the probability of occurrence of a damage mode of a minor mode or higher at a certain ground motion speed, and the curve 8b indicates the probability of occurrence of a damage mode of a minor fracture mode or higher. Therefore, the length in the vertical axis direction of the region surrounded by the curves 8a and 8b gives the probability of the minor mode. Since the meanings of other curves can be easily inferred, description thereof will be omitted.

According to FIG. 3, the occurrence probability distribution of the damage mode when the ground motion speed is specified can be obtained. The Is model further has the relationship shown in FIG. 3 as a function of the Is value. Therefore, according to the Is model, it is understood that the occurrence probability distribution of the damage mode can be obtained from the Is value and the earthquake intensity (ground motion velocity).

However, it is not always the individual buildings that require the damage prediction for practical purposes, but it is often the group of buildings having various Is values. In that case, a lot of work occurs because the above procedure is performed for each Is value.

Moreover, since the result is obtained as a distribution, it cannot be said that a person who does not have knowledge about past earthquake damage and fragility can put it into practical use easily. Further, since the Is model does not have the idea of associating an appropriate damage mode with a certain prediction condition category, it is not possible to determine the damage mode corresponding to the prediction condition category of the earthquake damage prediction diagram 1 only by using the Is model.

Therefore, in the present invention, the occurrence probability distribution of the damage mode corresponding to the expected condition classification is obtained from the Is model, and as a result of repeated research to easily express the result, the occurrence probability distribution is specified as the representative mode. Was conceived. In statistical processing, the statistical distribution is generally represented by a so-called representative value such as an average or a median. However, in the probability distribution of occurrence of a damage mode that is completely different from the general statistical distribution, the so-called representative value is obvious. Not as a thing.

As an example of the representative mode, for example, (1) 50
% Is the average damage mode that is less than that, (2) The damage mode that has the highest probability of being occupied is the "excellent damage mode", (3) 90% is the damage mode that is less than that, That is, the maximum damage mode that is likely to occur can be defined as "maximum damage mode". In the example of FIG. 2, the respective representative modes are specified as the small damage mode 6c for (1), the minor mode 6b for (2), and the large damage mode 6e for (3).

According to the method described above, one damage mode can be specified corresponding to each prediction condition classification by the representative mode, and can be displayed in the square of the earthquake damage prediction chart 1.

FIG. 4 shows an example of an earthquake damage prediction chart according to the present invention. Each of them has the same structure as the earthquake damage prediction chart 1 shown in FIG. 1 and is obtained by a common Is model, and the damage modes to be displayed are different representative modes. Therefore, detailed description of each drawing is omitted. 4 (a), (b), and (c) are earthquake damage prediction diagrams when the representative modes are (1) average damage mode, (2) predominant damage mode, and (3) maximum damage mode, respectively. is there.

The representative mode is very useful if selected according to the purpose of damage prediction. For example, if the goal is to predict the amount of damage, it is important to easily know the maximum amount of damage. In this case, it is useful to know what damage mode (3) is. If (3) is a minor mode, it is safe, but in this example (3) is a wreck mode 6e, so it is immediately apparent that a large amount of recovery budget must be prepared.

As described above, according to the present invention, by knowing the seismic intensity when an earthquake occurs, what kind of damage is expected to occur in the building corresponding to the seismic resistance characteristic value based on the Is value. Or, there is an advantage that you can know instantly just by looking at the chart. Therefore, it has an excellent advantage that it can be easily used by all people involved in disaster countermeasures without requiring specialized knowledge and skill.

Incidentally, such an earthquake damage prediction map can be prepared for each representative mode as required. By doing so, there is an advantage that the distribution of representative modes in different prediction condition categories can be understood at a glance, and the overall damage mode can be easily understood only by looking at the earthquake damage prediction map.

In the above description, an example in which the earthquake damage prediction chart is a diagram has been described, but as shown in FIG. 5, it may be a two-dimensional table consisting of a matrix. This table is
In the row direction of the table, for example, the magnitude of ground motion is taken as the seismic intensity class, and in the column direction, for example, the Is value is classified as the seismic resistance characteristic value. Then, the damage mode adopted as the representative mode is displayed in a matrix frame representing each of the corresponding expected condition categories by a word such as "minor". It is also possible to provide a rule such that a matrix frame without display represents "no damage". Also, each word is, for example, A,
It may be displayed with characters / symbols such as B, C ...

In the above description, the earthquake damage prediction chart is described as an example in which it is divided into two dimensions and arranged, but this means that the present invention is composed only of a two-dimensional chart. Not something to do. For example, as shown in FIG. 6, it may be easy to understand if it is displayed in a three-dimensional bar graph diagram. In FIG. 6, the magnitude of ground motion and the Is value are plotted on the two axes of the bottom surface 10 of the solid bar graph 9, and the damage mode is changed from 0 to 5
It is expressed by the length of the solid rod 11 corresponding to the numbers up to.

In the above description, the Is value is used as the seismic resistance characteristic value of the building, but the seismic resistance characteristic value is I.
It is not limited to the s value. The Is value is based on the idea of energy and is an index suitable for the final state.
Therefore, it has a rational basis for the damage modes near the end, such as wreck and collapse. On the other hand, when the deformation of the building becomes dominant, for example, the high-rise building and the low-middle-rise building have different deformation capabilities. The former has a longer cycle and a higher deformability, so small or medium damage due to deformation may occur easily, and it may be better to distinguish the two according to height and deformability even with the same Is value in order to better suit the damage rate. is there. Therefore, in addition to the basic chart based on the Is value, it is also effective to prepare, for example, an expanded chart for a low-strength building group and a high-rise building group. In such a case, the same Is
It is very convenient if the value is adopted as the seismic resistance characteristic value with the Is value expanded by engineeringly considering the height of the building, the deformability, and the balance between the deformability and the strength.

In the above description, I based on Document 1 is used.
Although the example using the s model has been described, the method of Reference 1 may be appropriately changed, such as using a value other than the Is value for the seismic resistance value, or using another earthquake data for the earthquake damage data. Needless to say, it may be expanded. That is, the present invention, if the occurrence probability distribution of the damage mode of the building with respect to the strength of a specific earthquake is obtained from the seismic resistance value of the building, other fragility model, or other mathematical model, statistical data set May be adopted.

[0041]

As described above, according to the present invention,
To predict damage, identify the expected condition category corresponding to the earthquake intensity and the range of seismic resistance value of the building to know the representative mode of the damage mode of the building group included in the expected condition category. Therefore, it is possible for anyone to easily understand what typical damage mode occurs corresponding to the expected condition classification.

Further, according to the present invention, since the representative mode corresponding to each forecast condition category is displayed on the earthquake damage forecast chart,
Since it is possible to predict the earthquake damage just by looking at the display, it is possible to easily predict the damage immediately.

Further, according to the present invention, it is possible to overlook the damage forecast over a wide range of the earthquake intensity and the seismic resistance characteristic value on the chart, and the overall characteristic of the expected damage is the earthquake damage forecast chart. Since it is possible to grasp the information just by looking at it, it is possible to obtain the information necessary for disaster countermeasures easily even for those who do not have specialized knowledge about past earthquake damage and fragility.

[Brief description of drawings]

FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of an embodiment of an earthquake damage prediction chart according to the present invention.

FIG. 2 is a conceptual diagram for explaining an Is model.

FIG. 3 is a conceptual diagram for explaining a fragility curve.

FIG. 4 is an example of an earthquake damage prediction chart according to the present invention.

FIG. 5 is a modification of the earthquake damage prediction chart according to the present invention.

FIG. 6 is another modification of the earthquake damage prediction chart according to the present invention.

[Explanation of symbols]

1 Earthquake damage forecast map (earthquake damage forecast map) 2 outer frame 3 inner frame 4a, 4b, 4c, 4d, 4e, 4f Display patterns 9 three-dimensional bar graph (earthquake damage forecast chart) 10 Graph bottom

Claims (7)

[Claims] 1. The probability of occurrence of a damage mode representing damage to a building due to an earthquake is calculated using a fragility model that is a function of the strength of the earthquake and the seismic resistance characteristic value of the building, and the earthquake strength and the seismic resistance characteristic value of the building are used. The expected probability distribution of the damage mode of the building group is calculated for each expected condition category in which the fluctuation range of each is divided into predetermined ranges, and the damage mode that represents the occurrence probability distribution of the damage mode of the building group is represented. It is specified as a mode, a corresponding relationship between the predicted condition classification and the representative mode is provided, and when the predicted condition classification is specified, damage is predicted by the representative mode provided with the corresponding relationship. Earthquake damage prediction method. 2. The earthquake damage prediction method according to claim 1, wherein the seismic resistance characteristic value of the building is a structural seismic resistance index obtained by seismic resistance diagnosis of the building. 3. A chart arranged in a two-dimensional manner,
In the first array direction, the seismic intensity divided into a predetermined range is taken, and in the second array direction, the seismic resistance characteristic values of the buildings divided into the predetermined range are taken. The earthquake damage prediction chart, which displays the expected damage mode of the building for each of the expected condition classifications corresponding to the classification of the above and the classification of the seismic resistance value of the building. 4. The earthquake damage prediction chart according to claim 3, wherein the displayed damage mode of the building is a probability of occurrence of a damage mode representing damage to the building due to an earthquake.
Earthquake damage characterized by being a representative mode specified from the occurrence probability distribution of the damage mode predicted in the prediction condition category using a fragility model that is a function of the earthquake intensity and the seismic resistance characteristic value of the building Forecast chart. 5. The earthquake damage prediction chart according to claim 3 or 4, wherein the seismic resistance characteristic value of the building is a structural seismic resistance index obtained by a seismic resistance diagnosis of the building. 6. A process of storing, as numerical data, a fragility model that is a function of an earthquake intensity and a seismic resistance characteristic value of a building, for the probability of occurrence of a damage mode that represents damage to a building due to an earthquake, and the stored fragility model. By processing the numerical data of the above, the probability distribution of the damage mode of the expected building group is calculated for each of the forecast condition categories that divide the fluctuation range of the earthquake intensity and the seismic resistance value of the building into predetermined ranges. The process of calculating, the process of specifying the damage mode that represents the occurrence probability distribution of the damage mode of the building group as a representative mode by the set default instruction or the input instruction, and the expected condition classification and the representative mode When the process of establishing a correspondence and storing and the expected condition classification or the type of the representative mode are input, the storage is performed. An earthquake damage prediction program characterized by causing a computer to execute the process of outputting a display according to the correspondence relationship. 7. The earthquake damage prediction program according to claim 6, wherein the seismic resistance characteristic value of the building is a structural seismic resistance index obtained by seismic resistance diagnosis of the building.