JP2003287572A - Method for estimating earthquake damage - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a method for estimating an earthquake damage, which estimates the number of microcomputer built-in meters being shut-off in the case the earthquake occurs. <P>SOLUTION: The method for estimating the earthquake damage is provided with an earthquake information setting step, in which the magnitude of accelerations or its equivalent values of the earthquake at a plurality of areas are set respectively, an exciting force deriving step, in which the magnitude of acceleration onto an earthquake sensitive shut-off device being installed at each customer facilities in the plurality of areas and detecting accelerations not less than a prescribed threshold in order to automatically shut-off supplying utilities, is derived based on attribute information relating to an installation condition of the earthquake sensitive shut-off device, and a shut-off state estimating step, in which a shut-off state of the earthquake sensitive shut-off device is estimated based on the threshold and the derived magnitude of acceleration onto the earthquake sensitive shut-off device. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2004,JPO

Description

Detailed Description of the Invention

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a method for estimating the interruption status of a seismic isolation device due to the influence of an earthquake, and more particularly to a method for estimating the effect caused by the isolation of the seismic isolation device.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art Conventionally, it has been promoted to install a seismic isolation device at a customer's house, which automatically detects the acceleration exceeding a predetermined threshold value due to an earthquake or the like and automatically shuts off the utility supply. The seismic isolation device includes a seismic function unit that is provided in the middle of the utility supply route and detects a shake (acceleration), and an interruption unit that shuts off the utility supply route when the acceleration is equal to or higher than a predetermined value. It is a device which is provided at least. Taking gas as an example of the utility, the meter for meter reading installed in the customer's house is configured as a microcomputer meter (seismic sensor) equipped with the above-described seismic function unit and shutoff unit. Therefore, when a comparatively large-scale earthquake occurs, the gas supply to the customer's house is cut off by the automatic operation of the shut-off part (shut-off valve), which may cause a secondary disaster due to gas leakage. Can be prevented.

When the shutoff valve is restored and gas supply is resumed, the shutoff valve is mechanically pushed back so that the customer himself or herself can restore the shutoff valve. You can

[0004]

However, when an earthquake actually occurs and the shut-off valve of the micom meter is activated, the gas is not supplied from the customer who does not or cannot restore the micom meter by himself. It is considered that many complaints and other reports were received due to the suspension. Further, it is also necessary to send a worker to the customer's house in order to perform the returning work of the microcomputer meter.

In this case, it is difficult to estimate how many microcomputer meters actually perform the shutoff operation because it depends on the scale of the earthquake and the installation situation of the microcomputer meters in the customer's house. there were. In particular, the magnitude of the acceleration of the microcomputer meter itself is different depending on the earthquake resistance (shake characteristics) of the building in which the microcomputer meter is installed, and therefore the interruption status is also various. Similarly, it was difficult to estimate how many notifications would be sent and how many workers would need to be sent to the customer's house because the microcomputer meter was cut off.

The present invention has been made in view of the above problems, and an object thereof is to provide an earthquake damage estimation method for estimating the number of interruptions of a seismic isolation device when an earthquake occurs.

[0007]

The first characteristic configuration of the earthquake damage estimating method according to the present invention for solving the above problems is as follows:
As described in claim 1 of the scope of claims, an earthquake information setting step of setting the magnitude of the acceleration of earthquakes in each of a plurality of districts or an equivalent amount thereof, and each customer facility in each of the plurality of districts. The acceleration of a seismic isolation device that automatically shuts off utility supply by detecting an installed acceleration equal to or greater than a predetermined threshold is derived based on attribute information related to the installation status of the seismic isolation device. This is because it includes a vibration force deriving step and a shutoff situation estimating step of estimating the shutoff situation of the seismic isolation device based on the derived magnitude of the acceleration of the seismic isolation device and the threshold value.

A second characteristic structure of the earthquake damage estimating method according to the present invention for solving the above-mentioned problems is, in addition to the first characteristic structure, as described in claim 2 of the scope of claims. In the interruption status estimation step, further, based on the interruption probability of the seismic isolation device below the predetermined threshold value,
The point is that the isolation status of the seismic isolation device is estimated.

A third characteristic configuration of the earthquake damage estimation method according to the present invention for solving the above-mentioned problems is the first or second characteristic configuration as described in claim 3 of the scope of claims. In addition to this, there is a load amount estimating step of estimating a work load amount caused by the interruption of the seismic isolation device according to the estimated isolation state of the seismic isolation device.

The operation and effect will be described below. According to the first characteristic configuration of the earthquake damage estimation method according to the present invention, the magnitude of the acceleration of the earthquake for each of the plurality of districts or its equivalent amount is set, and the attribute information regarding the installation status of the seismic isolation device and the above By also considering the magnitude of the acceleration of the earthquake or its equivalent amount, it is possible to estimate not the magnitude of the shaking of the ground but the magnitude of the shaking of the seismic isolation device itself. As a result, it is possible to estimate how many seismic isolation devices will perform the isolation operation.

According to the second characteristic configuration of the earthquake damage estimating method of the present invention, since the probability of interruption of the seismic isolation device below the predetermined threshold is taken into consideration in the isolation situation estimating step, Even if the magnitude of the shake detected by the seismic isolation device is less than or equal to the threshold value, it is possible to estimate the number of seismic isolation devices that are estimated to perform the isolation operation by detecting the oscillation.

According to the third characteristic configuration of the earthquake damage estimating method according to the present invention, since it is possible to estimate how many seismic isolation devices perform the isolation operation, the isolation of the seismic isolation device is performed. It is possible to estimate the work load caused by the number of interruptions.

[0013]

BEST MODE FOR CARRYING OUT THE INVENTION A configuration of an earthquake damage estimation system in which an earthquake damage estimation method according to the present invention is implemented will be described below with reference to the drawings. In this embodiment, a seismic function unit provided in the middle of the utility supply route for detecting shaking (acceleration) due to an earthquake and the like, and a shutoff function for shutting off the utility supply route when the acceleration is equal to or higher than a predetermined value. As an example of a seismic-sensing shutoff device including a section, a microcomputer meter (seismic-sensing meter) that includes the seismic-sensing function section, the shutoff section, and a meter-reading section that measures gas usage (utility usage) is illustrated. And explain. However, the seismic isolation device is not limited to the seismic isolation meter described above, and the same applies to other seismic isolation devices provided in utility supply paths such as water and electricity.

The earthquake damage estimation system illustrated in FIG.
An information processing apparatus 1 that can be realized by using a general computer, an earthquake information database 2 that stores the magnitude or equivalent of the magnitude of earthquakes in various places, the installation status of seismic meters, and the shakes that shut off valves operate. And an attribute information database 3 which stores attribute information such as the threshold value. The magnitude of the shaking of each earthquake stored in the earthquake information database 2 is obtained from the time-varying waveform of acceleration in the earthquake, and is the maximum acceleration (gal or cm / sec) which is an index representing the magnitude of the shaking of the ground. ² ) Similarly, SI, which is an index of how much a general structure shakes, is obtained from the time-varying waveform of acceleration in an earthquake.
There is a value (kine or cm / sec), and such information is referred to as earthquake information here. These pieces of seismic information may be values collected by seismographs in each district where they are actually installed (or estimated values based on them), or may be values in virtual earthquakes created for simulation. .

Next, steps for carrying out the earthquake damage estimating method according to the present invention in the information processing apparatus 1 shown in FIG. 1 will be described with reference to FIGS. 1 and 2. First, step 1
At 00, an earthquake information setting step of setting the magnitude of the acceleration (maximum acceleration on the ground surface) of the earthquake for each of the plurality of districts or its equivalent amount is performed. When the earthquake actually occurs, the acceleration of each of the above-mentioned districts is a value measured by seismometers installed in various places and collected in the earthquake information database 2, and an estimated value based on the value (for example, ,
It is possible to use the earthquake information which is the case where the acceleration at the point B intermediate between the points A and C is derived from the average value of the accelerations at the points A and C). Moreover, when performing a simulation assuming that an earthquake has occurred, the acceleration of the earthquake in each of the above-mentioned districts is calculated as the earthquake information database 2
Virtual earthquake data (earthquake information) stored in can be used. In this virtual earthquake data, earthquake information that actually occurred in the past can be used, or past earthquake information can be modified and created, or newly created.

Next, in step 102, the magnitude of the acceleration by the seismic sensor installed at each customer facility is determined by the seismic sensitivity for each of a plurality of districts in which the magnitude of the shaking is defined by the seismic information. An exciting force derivation step is performed which is derived based on attribute information regarding the installation status of the meter. Here, as the attribute information regarding the installation status of the seismic meter, there is information about what kind of facility and in what part the seismic meter is installed. For example, it is information about what kind of building and on what floor the seismic meter is installed.

For example, in the case of a building provided with a seismic isolation device that passively reduces the shaking of an earthquake or a building provided with a vibration damping device that actively reduces the shaking of an earthquake, The acceleration detected by the installed seismic meter is smaller than the acceleration on the ground surface. On the other hand, in a building that does not have the above-mentioned seismic isolation device and vibration control device (including a building with a quake-resistant structure that simply has increased rigidity), it is detected by the seismic sensor installed in that building. The acceleration is larger than the acceleration on the ground surface, and the sway (acceleration) also increases toward the upper floors.

FIG. 3 can be referred to when deriving the acceleration at the site where the seismic sensor is installed based on the earthquake information (maximum acceleration on the ground surface) and the attribute information of the seismic sensor. Indicates a parameter. It should be noted that the parameters shown here are partially cited from the values described in "Building Equipment Seismic Design and Construction Guidelines-1997 Edition-" published by the Japan Building Center. This parameter is a value that indicates how much acceleration can be tolerated. For example, in the upper floors of a building designed with seismic resistance class S, it must withstand twice the acceleration on the ground surface. Is designed to allow In other words, it is detected by the seismic sensor installed on the upper floors of the building of seismic class S where the building structure that reduces the shaking of the earthquake is adopted by providing the seismic isolation device and the vibration control device. It can be simply considered that the acceleration is reduced to 1/2 of the acceleration on the ground surface. It should be noted that the parameter is described as a value of 1 or less as long as it can withstand an acceleration smaller than the acceleration on the ground surface (the ground surface portion of the building is designed based on a standard that can withstand an acceleration of 800 gal). Even in the case where the parameter is 0.6, it is allowed to design on the basis that it can withstand an acceleration of 800 × 0.6 = 480 gal). The magnitude of the acceleration is considered to be the same as the acceleration on the ground surface.

Therefore, when an earthquake occurs, information about which seismic class the building in which the seismic sensor is installed is designed in and which floor it is installed on are stored as attribute information. The magnitude of acceleration detected by the seismic meter can be estimated. In particular,
When deriving the acceleration at the site where the seismic sensor is installed, the acceleration of the earthquake on the ground surface in each area (earthquake information),
Derivation of the product with the reciprocal of the parameter illustrated in FIG. 3 is performed. As a result, a distribution appears in the acceleration detected by each seismic meter installed in the area where the acceleration on the ground surface is the same.

FIG. 4 shows an example in which when the acceleration of an earthquake on the ground surface in a certain area is 250 (gal), the acceleration of each seismic sensor installed in each customer facility in that area The distribution is illustrated as an example. Most seismic meters are the same as the acceleration of the earthquake (250 gal) on the ground surface, but they are installed on the basement floor and at a certain part of the building where the shaking is smaller than the ground surface. Since there are seismic meters, seismic meters installed in predetermined parts of the building that cause greater shaking than the ground surface, the distribution shown in FIG. 4 can be obtained for each district.
Here, as shown in FIG. 4, instead of the acceleration distribution of the seismic meters installed in each district, the acceleration distribution of the seismic meters obtained for each district may be aggregated and displayed. .

Next, in step 104, the magnitude of acceleration of the seismic meter derived in the exciting force deriving step,
And, based on the interruption threshold of the seismic meter, the interruption status of the seismic meter is estimated. Specifically, the distribution of acceleration in the seismic meters for each district as shown in Figure 4, or the distribution of acceleration in all seismic meters in multiple districts, and those seismic meters perform blocking operations. It is possible to estimate the cutoff state of the seismic meter from the threshold value of the acceleration to be performed (here, 250 gal).

Here, in the case of estimating the interruption status of the seismic meters by using the distribution of accelerations in all the seismic meters in a plurality of districts, the total number of the seismic meters performing the interruption operation due to this earthquake is calculated. I can know. As a result, it is possible to estimate how much the total amount of work load for customer service and the like will be, so that it is possible to prepare a measure plan such as increasing or decreasing the number of business personnel. The work load assumed here includes the work of receiving notifications from customers due to the gas supply being stopped due to the seismic sensor being cut off, and the work to restore the seismic sensor being cut off. It can be estimated that the greater the number of seismic meters shut off, the greater the workload described above. Moreover, if it changes according to the number of cut-offs of the seismic sensor, it can be applied to various other workloads.

Alternatively, when the seismic sensitive meter cutoff state is estimated by using the distribution of acceleration in the seismic sensitive meter for each district, the number of meter shutoffs for each district can be known. As a result, it can be estimated that the work load of customer service will increase in areas with a large number of blockages, so it is possible to prepare a measure plan such as in which area the business staff should be assigned. .

<Other Embodiments><1> In the above-mentioned embodiment, it is described that the shutoff operation is performed according to the acceleration of the seismic sensor.
By considering the interruption probability (attribute information) below the interruption threshold of the seismic meter, it is possible to more accurately estimate the interruption situation of the seismic meter. For example, 250 (ga
In the case where a plurality of seismic meters with the cutoff thresholds are set so as to perform the cutoff operation by detecting the acceleration of l),
All seismic meters do not perform the blocking operation until the acceleration of the threshold value of 250 (gal) is detected.
There are seismic meters that already perform a blocking operation when an acceleration less than (gal) is detected. This is illustrated in FIG. 5 as the cumulative cutoff rate of the seismic sensor.

FIG. 5 exemplifies the cumulative cutoff rate of the seismic sensor in which the cutoff threshold is set so as to detect the acceleration of 250 (gal) and perform the cutoff operation.
Approximately 30% of all seismic meters when the acceleration of l) is detected
Number of seismic meters perform the shutoff operation (ie 150
(The blocking probability at (gal) is about 30%), 200
When the acceleration of (gal) is detected, about 95% of all seismic meters perform the shutoff operation (that is, 2
The blocking probability at 00 (gal) is about 95%), 25
All seismic meters (100%) have the characteristic that they perform a blocking operation when 0 (gal) acceleration is detected. For example, if there are 200 seismic meters that are set to detect a 250 (gal) acceleration and perform a blocking operation.
When the acceleration of (gal) is detected, the number of cut-offs of the seismic sensor estimated when the cut-off probability of the seismic meter is not considered is zero, but the As the number of interruptions is X × 0.95, it becomes possible to more accurately estimate the interruption situation of the seismic meter.

In addition, the shutoff probability (attribute information) of the seismic meter described here is determined in step 104 by the information processing device 1.
Can be stored in the attribute information database 3 so that they can be referred to. In addition, the graph of the interruption probability (cumulative interruption rate) of the seismic meter illustrated in FIG. 5 is an example thereof,
Since it changes depending on the type of seismic sensor, the number of years after installation, and the like, it is preferable that the attribute information database 3 stores information about the blocking probability in consideration of these influences.

<2> In the above-described embodiment, the magnitude of the acceleration detected by each seismic meter is roughly estimated using the parameters illustrated in FIG. 3, but it is not always necessary to use the parameters in FIG. . For example, if there is a parameter that can estimate in detail how much the acceleration at a predetermined part of the building will be compared with the acceleration at the ground surface,
It can be used to estimate the acceleration in the seismic meter.

<3> If a system capable of collecting the magnitude of the acceleration and the interruption status of each seismic meter when an earthquake actually occurs is constructed, the seismic meter derived as described above is constructed. Since it is possible to compare the estimated acceleration and the estimated cutoff situation with the actual acceleration and the cutoff situation, the acceleration and cutoff situation of the seismic meter in the earthquake damage estimation method according to the present invention based on the comparison result. The derivation accuracy can be improved.

[Brief description of drawings]

FIG. 1 is a block diagram of an earthquake damage estimation system.

FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating steps of an earthquake damage estimation method.

FIG. 3 is a parameter for deriving the acceleration of the seismic meter.

FIG. 4 is a graph showing a distribution of acceleration detected by a seismic meter.

FIG. 5 is a graph showing a cumulative cutoff rate of the seismic sensor.

[Explanation of symbols]

1 Information processing equipment 2 Earthquake information database 3 Attribute information database

Front page continuation (51) Int.Cl. ⁷ Identification code FI theme code (reference) G06F 17/60 110 G06F 17/60 110 19/00 100 19/00 100 F term (reference) 2F030 CB01 CC02 CC13 CF05 CF11 2G064 AB19 BA02 CC13 CC54 3J071 AA02 BB11 EE19 EE23 FF03

Claims (3)

[Claims] 1. An earthquake information setting step for setting the magnitude or equivalent of the acceleration of an earthquake for each of a plurality of districts, and for each of the plurality of districts, an acceleration greater than or equal to a predetermined threshold installed in each customer facility is set. An exciting force deriving step of deriving the magnitude of acceleration of the seismic isolation device that detects and automatically shuts off the utility supply based on attribute information relating to the installation status of the seismic isolation device; A seismic damage estimation method comprising: a blocking situation estimating step of estimating a blocking situation of the seismic isolation device based on the magnitude of the acceleration of the seismic isolation device and the threshold value. 2. The step of estimating the interruption status further comprises:
The earthquake damage estimation method according to claim 1, wherein the blocking status of the seismic isolation device is estimated based on an interruption probability of the seismic isolation device below the predetermined threshold value. 3. The load amount estimating step of estimating a work load amount caused by the interruption of the seismic isolation device according to the estimated isolation state of the seismic isolation device. Earthquake damage estimation method.