JP2003242305A - System for estimating social structure - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a system capable of estimating a social structure from a small amount of data. <P>SOLUTION: A first characteristic portion of this system is a 'social structure estimation engine' 220, and the contents of the social structure estimation engine comprise a 'population estimation model' 241 created by a demographical basic theory and a portion for automatically supplying a variable to the population estimation model. The social structure estimation engine 220 almost automatically supplies a variable essential for estimation with the population estimation model. As a result, an individual and a small group can easily estimate a population in analyzing a future social structure of a certain region personally and for itself. Its second characteristic portion is a 'political and strategic charger (Political and Strategic Charger)' 250. The political and strategic charger may be a portion for application with respect to how to utilize the social structure estimation engine 220, if the social structure estimation engine 220 is defined as one type of a core portion. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2003,JPO

Description

Detailed Description of the Invention

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a social structure estimation system, and more particularly to estimation based on a population estimation model.

[0002]

[Technical background] Population structure is estimated in various countries and regions using various models. The root is to measure the population at a certain point in the country, add it to the number of births by the birth rate of that country as a pool of population, and further estimate the number of deaths at that age from the mortality rate measured in that country. do it,
Subtract that amount from the population pool and add the number of survivors to the number of births mentioned above to estimate the population. In addition, the population of a certain region has a number of people moving in and out of it, so the migration rate is measured to calculate the number of people moving and the population is corrected. Now, in the system dynamic model, population is expressed as the amount accumulated in a kind of population pool called stock. The amount of water collected from the tap is stored in the lower tub. From this stock, a certain amount of people will die each year depending on the mortality rate, and the other amount will be accumulated in the stock corresponding to the next stage. Therefore, the population becomes a structure that enters into the older stock every 5 years, but this stock is a kind of array, and it is classified by age group and 21 every 5 years.
There are stocks of rank (every 5 years old, from 0 to 4 years old to 100 years old or older). At the top of this stock is a tank with a population of 0 to 4 years of age, into which newborn children enter every year. The number of births is determined as the number of children born by women of each age group at a certain rate, and the rate of birth is called the special birth rate. This model is the basic structure of a publicly known population estimation model, and if this is added to the number of migrants entering and leaving the area, it becomes a well-known population estimation model. This is shown in FIG. In the population estimation model 100 of FIG. 1, the population data 1 by gender for the five-year-old group is set as the initial value.
I am giving 10. Then, the fertility rate 122 by fertility rate 124, fertility rate 124, migration rate 132, and mortality rate 142, which are data sets every five years in the estimated year, are given to give birth population 1 by gender
20, the migration population by gender 130, and the survival population by gender 140 are calculated to obtain the population 160 after 5 years. But,
In order to operate this model, it is usually necessary to prepare an array of fertility rate, fertility ratio, mortality rate, and migration rate for all genders and age groups until the final year of the estimation, and it is actually easy to use. It is impossible to estimate the area.

[0003]

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION An object of the present invention is to provide a system capable of estimating social structure from a small amount of data.

In order to achieve the above-mentioned object, the present invention is a social structure estimation system for calculating an aging rate from a population classified by gender and age group of a specific year. And a special fertility rate estimating means for estimating the special fertility rate by class from the aging rate, and the special fertility rate by class from the special fertility rate estimating means, the population by specific year class, and the fertility ratio to obtain the birth population A social structure estimation system characterized by providing a means for estimating the birth population and a means for estimating the survival rate by class from the mortality rate by class, and estimating the future closed population from the population of a specific year Is. Furthermore, the estimated population to be blocked for a specific year obtained from the population by sex and age group before a specific year, and the migration rate estimation means for estimating the migration rate by class from the population by sex and age group for a specific year, It is also possible to provide a moving population estimating means for estimating a moving population by class from the moving rate for each class from the moving rate estimating means, and to estimate the future population in consideration of the moving rate from the population for two years. Further, it is possible to evaluate the stability of the future estimation by providing a difference calculation means for obtaining a difference between the future closed population estimation and the future population estimation in which the migration rate is added. Further, from the sex age group population of the year before the year before the specific year and the sex age group population of the specific year before, the past migration rate estimation means for estimating the migration rate by past class, It is also possible to provide a movement rate fluctuation calculation means for obtaining a movement rate change from the movement rate from the movement rate estimation means and the past movement rate from the past movement rate estimation means, and to obtain the movement rate change. Further, the output of the difference calculation means may be used to provide a means for outputting the area typology, and the area typology may be output. Furthermore, it is possible to estimate the effect of policy / planning by providing a means for selectively inputting the future migration rate. A recording medium or a computer program recording a program for causing a computer system to build the social structure estimation system described above is also the present invention.

[0004]

BEST MODE FOR CARRYING OUT THE INVENTION Embodiments of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings. FIG. 2 shows a schematic configuration of the social structure estimation system of the present invention. The system of the present invention is
Computers with system dynamics, for example, for analyzing the demographic structure of local communities and groups of specific people.
System. <Social structure estimation engine (CoreShell Engine): 220
> The first characteristic part of this system is a “Social structure estimation engine (CoreShell Engine)” 220. The content of the estimation engine 220 is made up of a "population estimation model" 241 created by a demographic basic theory, and a part that automatically supplies variables to this population estimation model. The demographic basic theory part of the social structure estimation engine is a known fact, as explained in FIG. 1 above.
In the usual population estimation model, most of the variables (mortality rate, birth rate, social migration rate, fertility ratio by sex and age group) supplied there are searched for variables from various statistics and the It must be obtained as a raw variable over the entire period of the estimation, and if it cannot be obtained, it must be estimated and added to the model. For this reason, population estimation is a model that requires a lot of work done by experts, and even if an individual makes a simple version of it, it takes a lot of work.
The profit obtained for the analysis was small. On the other hand, the social structure estimation engine 220 used in the present invention
Is characterized by almost automatically supplying the essential variables for making an estimate with the population estimation model. For this reason, it becomes possible for individuals and small groups to easily carry out population projections when analyzing the future social structure of a region, and to propose future policies and strategies related to that region. Became.

[0005] The principle underlying this is based on the discovery by the inventor of the relationship between the aging rate 243 and the birth rate 244 by age group obtained as a result of human biological observation of the demographic structure of society. -By creating it as a feedback loop inside the model, it is possible to automate the long-term estimation of the fertility rate 244 by age group, which is the most difficult to predict and whose value changes significantly. For this reason, the key technology is that the operation of the population estimation model has been greatly simplified. This part is related to the order of birth and death defined by the fact that a person is a living being, and the part using this principle is the "human biological population estimation engine" 240. The output form of the part 240 is
It is a population estimated in the future assuming that there is no inflow or outflow (social migration rate) of people into a certain local community, and is usually called "future estimation closed population" 242.

On the other hand, in general society, people freely flow into and out of the area. The inflow and outflow of people is statistically regarded as the population migration rate, but this variable varies significantly depending on the socioeconomic conditions of the region. This engine allows population migration rates to be calculated automatically from two-point census demographics (eg, two points in 1990 and 1995) (23
2) This saves the labor of investigating the migration rate in a certain area. Of course, it seems that each region independently investigates the migration rate, and if this can be used, it is more accurate to use it, but for comparison of several regions, this is published as unified data. It's five to ten years after demographics came out, and it's clear that forecasts using such old data don't help in designing the actual community. In this way, the model that includes the migration rate includes the “heart” of the person, such as the cultural attraction of the area, such as how a certain local community attracts people and businesses. The engine for automatically estimating the portion is called "population estimation engine including regional economic and social conditions" 230. This output is referred to as the “Future Estimated Population” 248. In other words, this social structure estimation engine 220 automatically calculates and inputs the two most important variables of the population estimation model in Japan, the birth rate by age group and the social migration rate, as long as demographic statistics at a certain point in time in a certain area are obtained. The feature is that it is done. In developed countries, the mortality rate and fertility ratio do not change so much that the population will change significantly in the future, so in an extreme way, if we know the population at a certain point in time, we can estimate the future population. Moreover, one of the outputs, "Future estimation closed population" 24
2 represents the human biological potential of the region, and yet another output, the “prospected population” 248, includes the mental background of the region's socio-economic structure and cultural appeal.

<Policy / Strategy Charger (Political an
d Strategic Charger: 250> The second characteristic part of this system is "Political Charger (Political Charger).
and Strategic Charger) ”250. If the social structure estimation engine 220 is a kind of core part,
It can be said that it is an applied part of how to use it. Basically, the “policy / strategy charger” 250 is the only one with various “social migration rates” in the population estimation model.
It is considered as a policy variable that changes depending on economic and cultural measures and corporate investment. Furthermore, it is a system that analyzes it, inputs policy and strategy proposals into this migration rate, and observes the effect. This system 250 forms a kind of feedback path located outside the social structure estimation engine 220. Now, it is the first purpose of this system 250 to judge whether or not the result of the future estimated population conducted in a certain area is stable. As already mentioned, from the social structure estimation engine, an estimation that depends on the human-biological potential of a certain regional population (future estimated closed population) and an estimation that includes the current economic and social conditions of the area (future estimated population ) And the social migration rate 246 for each age group are output. By obtaining the degree of difference (252) between these two types of estimated population structure and analyzing this (254), the future stability of the structure of this community can be determined. If the socioeconomic situation in the region has changed drastically and there is a significant difference between the measured potential of the local population (254), what happened between these two points in time? Analyze (2
56), new migration rate data for this region must be entered into the population estimation model as future migration rates (25
8). One way that can actually be done is to retrospectively add another temporary demographic structure and look at trends in social migration rates. Another option is to enter the future migration rate, which is determined by economic and social policies or corporate strategies, into the model. For example, there is a method for expanding and inputting the movement of people that can be expected by attracting companies or public investment as a movement rate (258). By these methods, the policy / strategic variables are input to the social mobility estimation model. Usually, the system for inputting such policy / strategic variables to move the population estimation model is complicated, and modifying the estimation model with policy variables does not fit into large models, and larger models have not been published. At present, it can be said that it was almost impossible for individuals and small groups to estimate future population by adding policy and strategic variables. On the other hand, in this system, policy / strategy charger 2
By using 50, an interface is provided so that the variables of policies and corporate strategies can be easily input into the population estimation engine 230. The social structure of can be estimated.

<Details of Social Structure Estimation Engine> The social structure estimation engine 220 shown in FIG. 2 will be described with reference to FIGS.
Will be described in detail. (Basic points of population estimation methods) Estimates of the population structure are made in many countries and regions using various models, but the basis is to measure the population at a certain point in a country and to calculate the population pool. Then, add the number of births by that country's birth rate, estimate the number of deaths at that age from the mortality rate measured in that country, subtract that amount from the population pool, and calculate the number of people who survived. The number is added to the number of births mentioned earlier, and the population is estimated. In addition, the population of a certain region has a number of people moving in and out of it, so the migration rate is measured to calculate the number of people moving and the population is corrected. In other words, in order to estimate the future population, the birth rate and mortality rate, and the three variables of migration rate and population are necessary. And to make this population estimate accurate,
A population measured by age group is required, and the birth rate, mortality rate, and migration rate are also required for each age group during all estimation years. The birth rate requires the birth rate according to the age group of the mother, and this is called the special birth rate. Now,
With all of these variables, it is possible to estimate the population in any region of any country, but in each of Japan's regions and advanced nations where problems arise for the time being, the decisive human biology behind the population estimate Principle is working. For this reason, the key point is that model operation does not require as many parameters as in developing countries, and basically, if the population structure is given, the future population estimation can be roughly predicted. Of course, in any region, the number of people moving each year is different, so it cannot be inferred from the above perspective alone, but the movement of the population depends on the industrial and social systems of the country. Therefore, this variable presents an aspect as an input variable for policy and corporate strategy for population structure. What, then, is the most important human biological factor that determines the demographic structure in developed countries? This means that population decline will occur in an aging society. To put it concretely, the total fertility rate in a certain society is strongly correlated with the aging rate. Figure 3 illustrates the aging rate of the Japanese population between 1975 and 1999 to explain this (AR: ratio of the population aged 65 and over to the total population).
FIG. 3 is a diagram showing a correlation between the total fertility rate (TFR: the number of children born by one woman over the lifetime) and the total fertility rate. Both of these variables are human biologically defined, the total fertility rate is a variable of how many children a woman has in her lifetime, and the aging rate is the total population of people aged 65 and over. It is a ratio. From FIG. 3, it can be seen that these two variables have a very strong correlation.

This phenomenon can be clearly understood by comparing the total fertility rate and the aging rate in all the countries of the world based on the United Nations demographics. In aging countries with an aging rate of over 7%, almost no country has a total fertility rate of over 2.1. further,
In developed countries with so-called aging societies, where the aging rate exceeds 14%, the total fertility rate does not exceed 1.8. This relationship shows that if the aging rate of society rises, the total fertility rate will decline, and in advanced countries such as aging societies, in countries where the so-called aging rate exceeds 14%, total special fertility rates can be maintained in the future. It is clear that the birthrate value of 2.1 will be severely interrupted, and within the next 10 years, any country will begin to experience population decline. Since the aging rate of the society can be easily calculated from the population model, if we add a system that feeds back the aging rate to the special birth rate, we can estimate the future of the population without measuring the birth rate one by one. It is a well-known fact that Japan's life expectancy began to increase rapidly after the war, its aging progressed, and its birth rate declined. Increasing life expectancy reduces the number of deaths for people of all ages, resulting in many living to old age and an aging society. Looking at the correlation between the number of elderly people and the total fertility rate, except for the post-war baby boomer era, if all the children with artificial abortion were born in Japan, measuring the total fertility rate, The total fertility rate declined from 1925 to 1995 in the first year of Showa era, which means that the fertility rate in Japan has a good correlation with time. The actual total fertility rate began to decline after 1970, when artificial abortion began to decline as well as in advanced countries.Before this, there was a surprisingly large number of abortions, so the birth rate Was suppressed to a constant value. Looking at the correlation between the total fertility rate and the aging rate in Japan since then, there is a fairly good correlation between them.

What is used in this system is the birth rate (special birth rate) of women in a certain calendar year by age group. Figure 4 shows the correlation between this fertility rate and Japan's aging rate. FIG. 4 is a diagram showing the relationship between the aging rate of the Japanese population and the special birth rate between 1975 and 1999. Squares from 20 to 24 years, triangles from 25 to 29 years old, circles from 30 to 34 years old, 35 to 39 years old
It is represented by a pentagon until the age. According to this, it can be seen that the special birth rate among women aged 20 to 39 who mainly have children also has a good correlation with the aging rate. Therefore, in the Japanese model, the aging rate of the population is calculated, the special birth rate (see Table 1) is calculated according to the aging rate, and it is distributed to the sex ratio of the number of births of Japanese children. If we include these numbers in the model, we can easily estimate the future population.

[Table 1]

(Social structure estimation engine in which the aging rate of the population is fed back to the fertility) Now, the algorithm of the social structure estimation engine in which the aging rate of the population is fed back to the fertility will be specifically described. All calculations here are treated as a population of the 5-year-old group. Now, this algorithm uses that in an aging society like developed countries, there is a constant correlation function between the aging rate of the society and its fertility rate. Therefore, if there is no inflow or outflow of the society (migration rate = 0) and the mortality rate and fertility ratio do not change (which is almost the case in developed countries), then even the structure of the population of the society is If you understand,
This means that the future population can be clearly estimated. Another important factor in the social structure estimation engine, mortality rate, does not change much in developed countries unless it is so extreme. In some cases, given the life expectancy of a society as a human biological variable, the mortality rate can be converted automatically. Also in Japan, 1995
Mortality rates between the years 2000 have fallen, albeit by a small amount, which has resulted in an aging rate for older people. However, here it is decided that the mortality rate does not change for the time being, and if the result of the estimation changes significantly, such as natural disasters or war turmoil, this part will be treated as a kind of functional system by sex and age group. Good.

FIG. 5 shows the details of the human biological population estimation model, which is a summary of the above. The basic features of this model are as follows when compared with the model shown in FIG. 1. Also in this model, population data 210 for each sex of 5 years old is required as an initial value. 2. In model operation, the following variables eliminate the need for input under the following assumptions.・ The aging rate 243 is the population data of 21 by gender 5
Calculated from 0. The special birth rate 244 uses the correlation function group (see Table 1) with the aging rate 243 (internal feedback path). -For the fertility ratio 222, the Japanese fertility ratio of 1.056 is used. Especially in areas that change significantly, the values for that area may be used, but it is natural to use the fertility ratio of the Japanese as the average value because there is no certainty of future predictions (data is stored in advance). . -The migration rate 246 is used to exclude the economic and social impacts in order to know the human biological characteristics of the area where the estimation is performed.
Estimate assuming that there is no migration (blocking model). -The mortality rate of 224 has little impact on population estimates in developed countries, especially Japan. For this reason, the latest mortality statistics are taken from the kinetic statistics and used. For example, in the 2000 model, the mortality rate of the Japanese people in 1999 is used (data is stored in advance).

(Social migration rate estimation model) The migration of a population between an area and its external society causes a large change in the population structure. As you can see from a brief thought, the decrease in the population of a certain area is often due to the removal of people from the town, which is the main cause of rapid development and population increase. Is not due to a declining mortality rate or an increase in fertility, but because people come in according to the attractiveness of the society and the economy. Therefore, the comings and goings of people from somewhere else are a major factor in determining policies for social estimation. Conversely, if we can measure the migration rate, we can estimate the state of the town and what will happen in the future. The migration rate is a big factor that shows the effect of the policy, or it is necessary to analyze what kind of policy and what kind of result is obtained as a result of social development. How, then, is the transfer rate obtained? In Japan,
Each municipality obtains migration rate statistics based on resident card statistics,
You may use this. However, if you want to make this estimation from population data only, you can use the following method.

First, from the population model for a certain year, the population for the next period is estimated by using the so-called closed population estimation model with the migration rate set to 0. For example, 1
Using the 985 census data, a closed population model is created using the mortality and birth rates in the region, thereby estimating the population five years later, ie 1990. The actual population of the region in 1990 should be answered differently. The difference between the theoretical and actual population in this region is considered to be the inflow or outflow population. That is, in FIG. 6, the theoretical population is estimated from the population 262 five years ago using the closed population model shown in FIG. 5 (264), and the difference between it and the actual population 266 is calculated. If you ask for it and divide by the population of 5 years ago, the migration rate is 2
46 can be calculated. However, of course, this migration rate needs to be adjusted so that the mortality rate increases with advancing age, and the number of births must be adjusted according to the migration rate and mortality rate of the female population. Thus, in order to obtain the current migration rate, data on the demographic structure at two predetermined times is required. For example, 199
Using the census data of 5 and 2000, the migration rate from 1995 to 2000 in the area can be measured. In addition, the future estimation obtained from this migration rate,
If the future estimates of the blockade model are significantly different, it is necessary to separately estimate future migration rates using policy / strategy chargers.

<Specific input and output examples of the social structure estimation engine> The social structure estimation model of this system is
It is assumed that the mortality rate by age group and the sex ratio of offspring are entered in advance. (Actually, in order to estimate the future population of Japan by municipality in 2000, enter the mortality rate (1999) and sex ratio of the Japanese obtained at this point in advance. For the part, it is sufficient to include what is estimated in the future.) Here, we show the result of population estimation of Akita city as an example using this system. To actually calculate with this system, enter the demographic structure of the male-female age group shown in the table in Fig. 7 (here, 1995 and 2000).
Population structure of the year). The population of 5 years before the estimation start year is input to the human biological population estimation engine, and the output of the estimation after 5 years is the estimated population of the table in FIG. 7. The social migration rate in the table of FIG. 7 is calculated based on this predicted population. FIG. 8 also shows a graph showing the social migration rate. If this social migration rate is negative, it indicates that it is inflowing. Further, from this system, it is possible to output the future estimated closed population as shown in the graph of FIG. From the results obtained here, the population estimation engine including the local economic and social situation is provided by using the migration rate correction terms of the population, migration rate, and birth rate in the estimation start year. As a result, Fig. 10 (population structure, minor ratio, working age rate, aging rate, total fertility rate) and Fig. 11 (2000 and 20)
The estimated future population and various population-dependent variables can be obtained as shown in (30-year population structure).

<Details of policy / strategy charger> Policy /
The strategy charger will be described in detail with reference to FIG. As mentioned above, in this system,
By using the social structure estimation engine to input the demographic structure by sex and age group at two points collected according to the time series, the future population estimation showing the future social structure and variables related to various social structures Is calculated. However, this estimation is based on the past 2
It is just a peek into the future from the transition of time. Since human society is constantly changing, it is possible to evaluate how credible this future estimate is. Furthermore, what kind of policy or strategy should we make and how will society change? The “Policy / Strategy Charger” was established for this purpose. This "policy / strategy charger" is effective when the human biological population estimation does not match the population estimation including the regional economic and social function (No in 291), that is, in a normal society. The contents can be divided into the following two types: (1) Evaluation of the stability of the regional economic society based on the estimation results (270 in Fig. 12) If there is nothing special in the regional economic society, the society will change according to the estimation results. An analytical method for determining whether or not there is prepared. (2) Estimating the effects of policy / strategy planning (280 in Fig. 12) An input loop is provided to estimate future changes in social structure when policies and corporate strategies are intentionally introduced into the local economy and society.

(Evaluation of Stability of Regional Economic and Social Society Based on Estimated Results: 270) It is quite difficult to evaluate whether or not the results are reliable by a future estimation system. In September 2001, it was difficult to predict changes in social structure due to phenomena that had not existed in the past, even if evaluations were made using past data using past data. It will be clear from the simultaneous terrorist attacks. The important point of this system is to predict the future structure of a demographic society that humankind has never experienced. For this reason, to determine whether or not this prediction is credible, the future estimated value that scientifically infers the characteristic of the organism of a certain social group is set as the standard value, and this and the actual prediction By examining the divergence, a method is used to judge whether or not this estimation is valid. In this policy / strategy charger, the difference between the estimation results of “Estimation dependent on human biological potential (future estimation closed population)” 242 and “Estimation including regional economic and social conditions (future estimation population)” 248 ( Function to automatically calculate "Economic and Social Impact Index" 2
52 is equipped. As a standard for automatic calculation, for example, an “economic and social impact index” for each type of municipality in Japan may be calculated, and a standard deviation value may be obtained and used. 2 of this deviation
Those that deviate from σ (Yes in 292) cannot be predicted by the future estimation due to the change between the two time points calculated here, and one past time point (for example, 1995 and 2000).
If the census data of the year is estimated, the census data of 1990) 293 is added, and the human biological population estimation engine 294 is used to obtain the population estimation value 295 five years from the past one time point. The population migration rate is calculated from the actual population (296). By using the population migration rate 297 to obtain the change 298 between the two social migration rates, it is possible to analyze the trend of the social structure.

To give a concrete example, it is assumed that the current population of each municipality in Japan will reach its peak within 20 years from now, and the population will begin to decrease. Therefore, the population will continue to increase thereafter. Regions will need to study past trends in population growth. For example, if a large university is invited to the area within the last five years (such as Ritsumeikan University in Kusatsu City, Shiga Prefecture), it will be 1
There is a sharp increase in the number of students in the age group of 5 to 24 years old, and it is clear that the population projection will cause a rapid population increase. However, five years later, university students will begin to graduate and move to various parts of Japan, causing a sharp decline in the population from the age group of 25 to 29. Therefore, it is clear that population prediction before the invitation of universities is necessary as a basic model. Similarly, for example, in the case of Kobe City during the Great Hanshin Earthquake, population decline in all age groups would be expected to be temporary.

In this system, "estimation dependent on human biological potential (future estimation closed population)"
And the “economic and social impact index” model obtained from the difference between the estimation results of “Estimation including future economic and social conditions of the region (future estimation population)”, weigh outflows and inflow rates of specific age groups The situation is classified into several types as shown in Tables 2 and 3 (262, 264).

[Table 2]

[Table 3] Each of these types has its own policy / strategic issues, and it becomes possible to propose policies / strategies based on the regional characteristics.

(Estimation of effect of policy / strategy planning: 280)
To examine the impact of a policy proposal or a company's strategy on a local community on future social structure, it is possible to input a policy variable into the social migration rate of the region and apply positive feedback to future estimates. . In this system, the social migration rate is automatically calculated, but adding a deliberate social migration rate that is expected to occur due to a policy or strategy in a specified year is a mechanism that can be easily incorporated as a subroutine during the calculation. Has become. For example, in the example of Kusatsu City in Shiga Prefecture, it was found that 15,000 faculty members moved to Kusatsu City between 1995 and 2000 with a certain age distribution, and most of them four years later. Students are expected to emigrate all over the country except after graduation. The number of residents of Kusatsu City is 150
It is possible to incorporate this into the migration rate because it can be predicted that it will be half of the 00 people. Similarly, after the withdrawal of heavy and heavy industries from coastal areas, which is occurring a lot now, the strategy of the local government to design what kind of city is also divided into several tentative plans for the situation of withdrawal of companies, and It is also possible to estimate the social structure. The important point of this policy / strategy charger model is that only the social migration rate of people is affected by economic society in the social structure, and we added an external loop to add a policy variable to the social migration rate. Especially.
In more advanced models, the social migration rate can also be added as data using graph functions by gender and age group.

[0021]

By using this system, it is possible to accurately estimate the future of the population and household structure that make up the local community, using the social structure data that the user can obtain. In addition, it is possible to add the management strategy to think about and the administrative policy to be modified to the future estimation in this system.

[Brief description of drawings]

FIG. 1 is a diagram showing a conventional population estimation model.

FIG. 2 is a diagram showing a schematic configuration of a social structure estimation system.

FIG. 3 is a diagram showing a correlation between an aging rate and a synthetic fertility rate.

FIG. 4 is a diagram showing a correlation between an aging rate and a special birth rate between 1975 and 1999.

FIG. 5 is a diagram showing a configuration of a human biological population estimation engine.

FIG. 6 is a diagram showing a configuration of a population estimation engine including regional economic and social situations.

[Figure 7] Example of input data to the system (Akita City 1995
And census data for the year 2000).

FIG. 8 is a graph of the estimated migration rate of Akita city.

FIG. 9 is a graph showing a population blockage estimate for Akita City in the future.

FIG. 10 is a graph showing an estimation including future regional economic and social conditions in Akita city.

FIG. 11 is a diagram showing a population structure of Akita city in 2030 estimated to be the 2000 population structure.

FIG. 12 is a diagram showing a structure of a policy / strategy charger.

Claims (8)

[Claims] 1. A social structure estimation system, which is an aging rate calculation means for calculating an aging rate from a population by sex age group of a specific year, and a special birth rate estimation for estimating a special birth rate by group from the aging rate. Means, a special birth rate by means of the special birth rate estimating means, a population by specific year, and a fertility ratio for obtaining a birth population from the fertility ratio; and a death rate by class, a surviving population by class A social structure estimation system characterized by estimating the future closed population from the population of a specific year, and a survival estimation means for estimating. 2. The social structure estimation system according to claim 1, further comprising a population estimated to be blocked for a specific year and a sex age group for a specific year, which is obtained from the population by sex age group of the year before the specific year. The population for two years is provided with a migration rate estimating means for estimating a migration rate by class from the different population, and a moving population estimating means for estimating a migration population by class from the migration rate by class from the migration rate estimating means. From this, a social structure estimation system characterized by estimating the future population in consideration of the migration rate. 3. The social structure estimation system according to claim 2, further comprising a difference calculation means for calculating a difference between the future closed population estimation and the future population estimation in which the migration rate is taken into consideration, and the future estimation is stable. A social structure estimation system characterized by assessing the degree. 4. The social structure estimation system according to claim 3, wherein the population based on the sex age group in a year before the year before the specific year and the population according to the sex age group before the specific year Movement rate fluctuation calculation for obtaining a change in movement rate from past movement rate estimation means for estimating the movement rate by class, movement rate from the movement rate estimation means and past movement rate from the past movement rate estimation means A social structure estimation system that includes means and obtains fluctuations in the migration rate. 5. The social structure estimation system according to claim 3 or 4, further comprising means for outputting a regional type classification using the output of the difference calculation means, and outputting the regional type classification. Social structure estimation system 6. The social structure estimation system according to claim 5, further comprising means for selectively inputting a future migration rate, and capable of estimating the effect of policy / planning. 7. A recording medium recording a program for causing a computer system to build the social structure estimation system according to claim 1. 8. A program for causing a computer system to build the social structure estimation system according to any one of claims 1 to 6.