JP2003090887A - Predication system and prediction method of instantaneous voltage drop by thunderbolt - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To reduce the load on a system operator or on a power user to facilitate the judgment related to lightning damage by calculating the instantaneous drop probability of voltage in a transmission line facility of power system or an electronic factory as electricity receiver and delivering the information therefor. SOLUTION: This system comprises a means 2 for storing the past thunderbolt data, a means 3 for storing the past instantaneous voltage drop data, a means for predicting a moving designation of thunderbolt position by use of the stored contents of the means 2 and weather data, a means 5 for extracting data for a transmission line having high possibility of having a thunderbolt from the prediction result of the means 4 and the degree of lightning stroke risk from geographical factors, and a means 6 for calculating the instantaneous voltage drop probability of the transmission line facility or electricity receiver from the extracted transmission line data and the stored contents of the means 3.

Description

Detailed Description of the Invention

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a method for predicting an instantaneous voltage drop in a power system operator and a power user due to a lightning strike, such as a transmission line facility or an electronic factory, and more specifically, weather data and past lightning strike data. Also, the present invention relates to an instantaneous voltage drop prediction system and a prediction method for calculating an instantaneous voltage drop probability of a power receiver such as a transmission line facility or an electronic factory from past instantaneous voltage drop data.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art In recent years, with the progress of office automation and factory automation and computerization, there is a strong demand for accurate lightning information in order to avoid the influence of voltage drop due to lightning strike. There is a need. In response to such needs, for example, provision of information on thunderclouds and lightning strikes through PHS and the like is being carried out by electric power companies on a trial basis.

There are the following two documents as conventional techniques for predicting such a lightning strike and moving a thundercloud. Reference 1) JP-A-9-329672, Lightning prediction method. Reference 2) Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 2000-131458, Thundercloud observation system. Document 1 discloses a lightning prediction method in which the prediction rate of lightning is increased by using a dual-polarization radar to identify hail and ice crystals as precipitation particles in a thundercloud with a predetermined threshold value. .

In Reference 2, a thundercloud region is determined based on meteorological observation data, and a thundercloud disappearance prediction is made based on the ups and downs of the thundercloud.
Detailed techniques for predicting movement and the like are disclosed. However, such a conventional technique cannot predict an actual power system accident due to a lightning strike, and cannot clarify a quantitative relationship between a lightning strike and a power system accident, for example, an instantaneous voltage drop. There was a problem.

Regarding the judgment of the necessity of system switching for reducing the influence of such a power system accident,
The current situation is that operators rely on their conventional experience and intuition based on limited information. However, in response to the increasing demand for electric power in recent years and the demand for improving the operating rate of equipment accompanying the deregulation of electric power, the system operating conditions are becoming more complex, and even with regard to the prevention of accidents due to lightning strikes, the conventional human However, there is a problem in that the burden on the operator increases and it is difficult to make a uniform decision that does not depend on the individual ability of the operator.

Furthermore, many electric power users who have semiconductor factories and electronic factories need information for preventing damage due to lightning strikes, but at present, weather forecasts by meteorological stations in each region and offline system information are required. On the basis of this, there is a problem that it is only possible to roughly predict the instantaneous voltage drop, and it is not possible to prevent damage due to lightning strikes without making a more accurate prediction of the instantaneous voltage drop.

In view of the above problems, an object of the present invention is to provide a transmission line facility of an electric power system, an electronic factory as a power receiving destination, etc. based on past lightning strike data, past instantaneous voltage drop data, and meteorological data. It is an object of the present invention to provide an instantaneous voltage drop prediction system and a prediction method capable of calculating an instantaneous voltage drop probability, reducing the burden on a system operator or an electric power user, and making the judgment uniform.

[0008]

FIG. 1 is a block diagram of the principle configuration of a system for predicting an instantaneous voltage drop due to a lightning strike according to the present invention. In the figure, the prediction system 1 includes a past lightning strike data storage means 2, a past instantaneous voltage drop data storage means 3, a lightning strike destination prediction means 4, a lightning transmission line extraction means 5, and an instantaneous fall probability calculation means 6.

The past lightning strike data storage means 2 stores past lightning strike data such as the time, position, polarity, current value, and the like of the lightning strike.
Also, in addition to data such as multiplicity indicating how many lightning strikes have occurred in the past at the same location, past movement patterns of lightning strike positions and the like are stored.

The past instantaneous voltage drop data storage means 3 stores data such as generation time, substation name, bus bar name, line voltage information, duration, pre-accident voltage, voltage drop rate, etc. as past instantaneous voltage drop record data. It is something to remember.

The lightning strike destination predicting means 4 predicts the position of the lightning strike using the meteorological data and the stored contents of the past lightning strike data storing means 2, and is, for example, a lightning strike destination predicting section.

The lightning transmission line extraction means 5 extracts the data of a transmission line having a high possibility of lightning, using the prediction result of the lightning strike destination prediction means 4 and the lightning risk calculated from the geographical factor. , Which is to be ranked, for example, a thunderbolt transmission line extraction unit.

The instantaneous voltage drop probability calculating unit 6 is, for example, an instantaneous voltage drop probability calculating unit, and uses the data of the power transmission line extracted by the lightning-received power line extracting unit 5 and the stored contents of the past instantaneous voltage drop data storage unit 3. , An instantaneous voltage drop probability of a power receiving destination, for example, an electronic factory is calculated.

In the embodiment of the present invention, the lightning strike destination prediction means 4 predicts the position of the lightning strike in response to the input of the stored contents of the past lightning strike data storage means 2 and the meteorological data 1
It may comprise one or more inference engines, eg neural networks.

Further, in the embodiment, the instantaneous voltage drop probability calculating means 6 can calculate the instantaneous voltage drop probability by calculating the system voltage using the assumed accident simulation function.

Further, in the embodiment, the instantaneous voltage drop prediction system stores the stored contents of the past lightning strike data storage means 2 and the past instantaneous voltage drop data storage means 3, the prediction result of the lightning strike destination prediction means 4, and the instantaneous drop probability calculation. It is also possible to further include information distribution means for distributing the calculation result of the means 6 to the power user via the network according to the level desired by the power user.

In the method of predicting instantaneous voltage drop due to lightning strike of the present invention, the destination of the lightning strike position is predicted from the weather data and the past lightning strike data, and the result of the prediction and the risk of lightning strike due to geographical factors are used. A method of calculating the probability of an instantaneous voltage drop of the power receiving destination by using the data of the transmission line having a high possibility of lightning and using the extracted data of the transmission line and the past instantaneous voltage drop data is used.

As a storage medium of the present invention, a step of predicting a destination of a lightning strike position from meteorological data and past lightning strike data, and a result of the prediction and a risk of lightning strike due to a geographical factor can be used for lightning strikes. For causing the computer to execute the step of extracting highly reliable transmission line data and the step of calculating the instantaneous voltage drop probability of the power receiving destination using the extracted transmission line data and past instantaneous voltage drop data. A computer-readable portable storage medium storing a program is used.

As the program of the present invention, the possibility of lightning strike is estimated by using the procedure for predicting the destination of the lightning strike position from the meteorological data and the past lightning strike data, and the result of the prediction and the risk of lightning strike due to geographical factors. A program for causing a computer to execute a procedure of extracting data of a high-power transmission line and a procedure of calculating an instantaneous voltage drop probability of a power receiving destination using the extracted power line data and past instantaneous voltage drop data. Is used.

As described above, according to the present invention, the instantaneous voltage drop probability of the power receiving destination is calculated using the past lightning strike data and the past instantaneous voltage drop data.

[0021]

FIG. 2 is a block diagram of a system for predicting an instantaneous voltage drop due to a lightning strike according to the present invention. In the prediction system 10 of the same figure, the lightning strike data storage device 11 stores past lightning strike data, for example, the lightning strike data described in FIG. 3, and the meteorological data storage device 12 stores past and present meteorological data such as thunderclouds. The data stored in these two storage devices are given to the lightning strike data statistical processing unit 13 to obtain, for example, a past lightning strike (position) movement pattern, and the pattern is the past. Lightning strike movement pattern storage device 1
Stored in 4.

The lightning strike data statistical processing unit 13 also divides the lightning strike point map showing the lightning strike points in the designated region and period into a mesh shape, and displays the color of the number of lightning strikes for each mesh and displays the lightning multiplicity. (Density) map,
Create a lightning polarity map that shows the ratio of positive polarity to the total number of lightning strikes.

The lightning strike destination prediction unit 15 uses the stored contents of the lightning strike data storage device 11, the meteorological data storage device 12, and the past lightning strike movement pattern storage device 14 to predict the lightning strike destination. As will be described with reference to FIG. 4, it is configured by one or more inference engines, such as a neural network, that predicts the destination of a lightning strike on the condition that there is data non-linearity and uncertainty.

The geographic data storage device 16 statistically processes geographic data, that is, the relationship between topographic factors and lightning strike data, and calculates a lightning strike risk distribution unit 17 for calculating the distribution of lightning strike risk.
Stores geographic data used by
For example, when a certain area is divided into meshes, the calculation result of the lightning strike risk for each mesh is stored in the lightning strike risk storage device 19.

The predicted result of the lightning strike destination by the lightning strike destination prediction unit 15 is stored in the predicted value storage device 18, and the lightning transmission line extraction unit 21 includes the two storage devices 18 and 19, and the power transmission equipment is, for example, the aforementioned mesh. Using the data stored in the power transmission equipment position storage device 20 that stores the data indicating where it is located above, the data of the power transmission line to which a lightning strike is likely to occur is extracted.

The instantaneous voltage drop probability calculation unit 22 stores the contents of the instantaneous voltage drop occurrence record data storage device 23 that stores past instantaneous voltage drop data, and the lightning transmission line extraction unit 2.
Using the data of the transmission line having a high possibility of a lightning accident extracted in 1 above, for example, the instantaneous voltage drop probability at each of the above-mentioned mesh-shaped points is calculated. The result is displayed by the result display and information delivery unit 24, and information delivery such as past lightning strike data, prediction result of thundercloud movement destination, and instantaneous voltage drop probability calculation result is performed according to the request of the power user.

In this information distribution, for example, the target area can be divided into meshes in the same manner as described above, or can be divided into prefectures or areas and can be distributed online as an instantaneous voltage drop occurrence forecast.

The operation of the instantaneous voltage drop prediction system 10 of FIG. 1 will be further described. First, lightning strike data statistical processing unit 1
3, the correlation between the position of the lightning strike, the time of the lightning strike, the weather condition at the time of the lightning strike, and the like is checked by the statistical processing from the data stored in the lightning strike data storage device 11 and the weather data storage device 12.

A lightning strike position locating system, which is generally installed at a power system power supply command station, determines the time and position of a lightning strike.
Data such as polarity, current value, and multiplicity can be obtained. FIG. 3 shows that these data are stored in the lightning strike data storage device 11.

The velocity of lightning movement in the direction of movement can be calculated from these data, and the lightning movement pattern, that is, the lightning path can be known, and the distribution of lightning in a specific area and time can be analyzed.

Further, the echo intensity of the thundercloud, the average wind speed, the high-level meteorological data, etc. can be obtained from the meteorological server, and the correlation between the lightning strike and the meteorological condition can be statistically processed by a known statistical calculation tool. The lightning strike movement pattern obtained by the statistical processing is stored in the past lightning strike movement pattern storage device 14.

Further, as the data stored in the instantaneous voltage drop occurrence record data storage device 23, data obtained by the existing voltage sag detection function, for example, voltage sag information detected by the power feeding command system can be used.

FIG. 4 is a flow chart of processing by the lightning strike destination prediction unit 15 of FIG. In this lightning strike destination prediction, past multiple lightning strike movement pattern data obtained by statistical processing of lightning strike data, current value of weather data such as thundercloud, predicted value, etc.
For example, a neural network is used to predict the destination of a lightning strike.

In this prediction, it is necessary to consider various meteorological and geographical factors, an inference engine that can cope with the strong nonlinearity and uncertainty of the data is used, and the inference results of multiple inference engines are used. Prediction accuracy is improved by multiplying and by an appropriate weight.

As a process before the lightning strike destination prediction process of FIG. 4, learning of an inference engine, for example, a neural network is performed. Using the past lightning strike movement pattern obtained by statistical processing of lightning strike data, past lightning strike data, and meteorological data, learning for predicting the destination of lightning strike is performed, and multiple inference engines are constructed. .

This inference engine has only to be capable of coping with the non-linearity and uncertainty of data, for example, a general neural network, a structured neural network, a fuzzy inference engine, and the gray proposed in the following document. A dynamic model or the like can be used.

Reference 3) Morita, Zhang and Tamura: “Grey S”
Long-Term Demand Forecast Using System Theory ”, IEEJ Transactions on B, Vol. 113, No. 12, 1431-1438, 1993
Year. The gray system of Reference 3 is a system in which the system information is only partially clear as compared with a white system in which the system information is completely clear and a black system in which the system information is completely unclear. Gray system theory is a theory that can handle uncertain information in the fields of data processing, modeling, prediction, decision making, and control.

In FIG. 4, prediction processing of a lightning strike destination is performed using each learned inference engine. First, in step S1, meteorological observation data, past lightning strike data, lightning strike movement pattern data, etc. are read and given to respective inference engines.

In steps S2 ₁ , ..., S2 _N , the processing by each inference engine is executed, and the prediction result of the lightning strike movement destination by each inference engine is output. These N inference engines may be of different types, may be of the same type but different parameters, or may be different in the number of intermediate layers if they are neural networks.

Then, in step S3, the prediction results of each inference engine are multiplied by a weighting coefficient in order to combine the prediction results and improve the overall prediction accuracy. For example, by adding the multiplication results. , Step S4
The prediction result is output with and the processing ends. Here, the weighting coefficient can be adjusted and set according to the meteorological observation conditions such as thunderclouds, and may be automatically adjusted according to these observation conditions.

When three inference engines are used, the accuracy rate of each inference engine is 65%, 70%, 80.
Even if it is%, it can be expected to obtain a prediction result with an accuracy rate of 85% by weighting and adding the outputs of the three engines.

FIG. 5 is a flow chart of the process by the lightning transmission line extraction unit 21 of FIG. When the process is started, first, in step S6, the lightning strike risk data stored in the lightning strike risk storage device 19 of FIG. 2 and the predicted value storage device storing the result predicted by the lightning strike destination prediction unit 15 are stored. The stored contents of 18 and the power transmission line facility position data stored in the power transmission facility position storage device 20 are read.

Then, in step S7, the lightning transmission equipment is extracted. That is, in accordance with the lightning strike destination prediction result, an area with a high possibility of lightning strike centered on the destination, for example, a power transmission facility within a radius of 1 to 10 km centered on the lightning strike destination is the power transmission facility position storage device 20. It is extracted from the stored contents of. Alternatively, for example, the mesh in which the lightning strike prediction destination has been entered is superimposed on the power transmission system diagram, and the corresponding power transmission equipment is extracted from the mesh number.

Subsequently, in step S8, the power transmission equipment having a possibility of an accident is ranked. Using the lightning strike risk stored in the lightning strike risk storage device 19, that is, the distribution data of the lightning strike risk corresponding to the terrain accumulated in the past, it is possible to determine the The risk is ranked. In addition, with respect to the same power transmission facility with a long distance, the possibility of accidents can be ranked for each transmission line section, and the voltage range due to a lightning strike accident can be calculated in more detail and the range of influence of the accident can be known.

The lightning strike risk is the result of calculating the correlation between topographical factors such as altitude and inclination and lightning strike by a statistical method, and is basically unrelated to the prediction by the lightning strike destination prediction unit 15, In order to improve the prediction accuracy, it is possible to input the geographic data (storage contents of the geographic data storage device 16) at the lightning strike destination to the inference engine of the prediction unit 15.

FIG. 6 shows the instantaneous voltage drop probability calculator 22 of FIG.
5 is a flowchart of a process by. When the process is started in the figure, the accident point is first set in step S10. In this process, the assumed accident case is set in correspondence with the rank of the risk level of the power transmission equipment having a possibility of an accident. Accident cases are set in consideration of the fact that transmission line accidents due to lightning strikes are generally more ground faults.

Subsequently, a contingency calculation is performed in step S11. In this calculation, the function of the system reliability monitoring equipment, which is generally installed at the power system power supply command station, is utilized to perform a simulated accident simulation. As the assumed accident simulation, for example, a simulation using a known AC method power flow calculation method is used to calculate the voltage drop rate of each node such as a substation according to the value of the voltage before and after the accident by the following equation.

Η = (ΔV ÷ V _i ) × 100% where η is the voltage drop rate, V _i is the voltage at the node before the accident, and ΔV is the difference between the voltage at the node before and after the accident.

In general, the larger the voltage drop rate, the larger the instantaneous voltage drop probability. Therefore, the instantaneous voltage drop probability β can be estimated by the following equation. β = α × η The value of α, which indicates the statistical relationship between the instantaneous voltage drop probability β and the voltage drop rate η before and after the accident, is estimated from the past instantaneous voltage drop actual data.

FIG. 7 shows an example of past performance data stored in the instantaneous voltage drop occurrence performance data storage device 23 of FIG. As the actual data, the time of occurrence of the instantaneous voltage drop,
The substation name, bus name, line voltage information, duration, pre-accident voltage, voltage drop rate, etc. are stored, and the instantaneous voltage drop probability is estimated by referring to such stored data. When the voltage drop from the rated voltage is 30% or more, the node is often judged to be in a power failure, and in that case, the instantaneous voltage drop probability is estimated to be 100%.

In step S12 of FIG. 6, such an instantaneous voltage drop probability is calculated, and the process ends. In addition, in order to improve the calculation accuracy of the instantaneous voltage drop probability, a detailed analysis of the instantaneous voltage drop phenomenon or a dynamic stability calculation method, for example, a known Y method program by the Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry may be used. it can. However, if the number of parameters is extremely increased, it takes processing time. Depending on the relationship with the processing time and whether or not the dynamic stability calculation function is implemented, whether or not to calculate the probability of instantaneous voltage drop by dynamic stability calculation is used. Is decided.

The Y method program is a dynamic characteristic stability analysis program for system disturbances such as ground faults and transmission / transformation line trips, and is described in the following document. Reference 4) Ueda et al .: Improved Y method manual for dynamic characteristic stability analysis program of electric power system, Research Report No. 18
4004, 1984. FIG. 8 is an explanatory diagram of the operation of the result display and information distribution unit 24 in FIG. 2, and FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram of the service level in the information distribution service.

In FIG. 8, the instantaneous voltage drop prediction system of this embodiment is basically composed of an information providing server 30, and the processing result thereof is, for example, a computer 31.
Is displayed on the display. The information providing server 30
In the processing in (1), for example, in the assumed accident simulation in the calculation of the instantaneous voltage drop probability, the function of the grid operation system 33 connected via the information providing server 30 and the firewall 32 is used as necessary.

The processing result of the information providing server 30, for example, the calculation result of the instantaneous voltage drop probability is generally provided to a plurality of power users 36, 37, 38 through the firewall 34, the network 35, for example, the Internet.

The system including the information providing server as described above is provided to the users who are given the access right.
It is also possible to configure it as an information sharing system that allows the information acquired by the server to be displayed on the user terminal via a WWW browser.

FIG. 9 is a diagram for explaining the service level of the service provided to each power user in FIG. In this embodiment, it is assumed that information distribution, that is, the service level is divided into three levels, level 1 to level 3, and the information of the level according to the request of each power user is distributed. In FIG. 8, the power user 36 is a service level 2 user, and the power user 37 is a user who requests a service level 1 service.

In FIG. 9, the service level 1 information includes information that can be provided even offline. From 1) movement information of past several tens of minutes of lightning strike, lightning multiplicity and polarity information, 5) lightning strike risk Information up to the degree information is provided. In the service level 2, in addition to the information of the service level 1, 6) lightning strike destination prediction information as a prediction result by the lightning strike destination prediction unit 15 of FIG. 2 is provided. In the service level 3, in addition to the information of the service levels 1 and 2, probability information of 7) momentary voltage drop (instantaneous voltage drop) is provided as a calculation result by the instantaneous voltage drop probability calculator 22.

The details of the instantaneous voltage drop prediction system and the prediction method of the present invention have been described above.
This prediction system can of course be configured as a general computer system. FIG. 10 is a configuration block diagram of such a computer system, that is, a hardware environment.

In FIG. 10, the computer system includes a central processing unit (CPU) 50 and a read only memory (RO).
M) 51, random access memory (RAM) 52, communication interface 53, storage device 54, input / output device 5
5, a portable storage medium reading device 56, and a bus 57 to which all of them are connected.

As the storage device 54, a hard disk,
Various types of storage devices such as a magnetic disk can be used, and the storage device 54 or the ROM 51 has the programs shown in the flowcharts of FIGS. 4, 5, and 6, and the present invention. The program of claim 7 in the range of
By being executed by the PU 50, it becomes possible to perform lightning strike destination prediction, extraction of a lightning transmission line, calculation of an instantaneous voltage drop occurrence probability, and the like in the present embodiment.

Such a program may be stored in the storage device 54 from the program provider 58 side via the network 59 and the communication interface 53, or may be a commercially available and distributed portable storage medium 60.
Stored in the device, which is set in the reader 56,
It can also be executed by the PU 50. Various types of storage media such as a CD-ROM, a flexible disk, an optical disk, and a magneto-optical disk can be used as the portable storage medium 60, and the program stored in such a storage medium is read by the reading device 56. As a result, it is possible to realize the instantaneous voltage drop occurrence prediction system in this embodiment.

[0062]

As described above in detail, according to the present invention, the prediction of the destination of the lightning strike and the system fault, particularly the prediction of the instantaneous voltage drop are linked, and the accuracy of the system fault due to the lightning strike can be calculated by calculating the system voltage. Good quantitative prediction, especially prediction of instantaneous voltage drop can be realized, which can reduce the burden on the system operator and facilitate the judgment. Furthermore, by distributing information such as calculation results, it is possible to reduce lightning damage by prior notification to electric power users such as electronic factories, which greatly contributes to reduction of economic loss due to lightning strike.

[Brief description of drawings]

FIG. 1 is a block diagram of the principle configuration of an instantaneous voltage drop prediction system of the present invention.

FIG. 2 is a configuration block diagram of an instantaneous voltage drop prediction system in the present embodiment.

FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of stored data in a lightning strike data storage device.

FIG. 4 is a flowchart of a process performed by a lightning strike destination prediction unit.

FIG. 5 is a flowchart of a process performed by a thunderbolt transmission line extraction unit.

FIG. 6 is a flowchart of processing by an instantaneous voltage drop probability calculation unit.

FIG. 7 is an example of stored data in an instantaneous voltage drop occurrence record data storage device.

FIG. 8 is an explanatory diagram of an information distribution service operation.

FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram of service levels in the information distribution service.

FIG. 10 is a configuration block diagram of a computer for realizing an instantaneous voltage drop prediction system.

[Explanation of symbols]

1,10 Instantaneous voltage drop prediction system 2 Past lightning strike data storage means 3 Past instantaneous voltage drop data storage means 4 Lightning strike destination prediction method 5 Lightning transmission line extraction means 6 Instantaneous drop probability calculation means 11 Lightning strike data storage device 12 Meteorological data storage device 13 Lightning Data Statistics Processing Section 14 Past lightning strike pattern storage device 15 Lightning strike destination prediction unit 21 Lightning Lightning Transmission Line Extraction Unit 22 Instantaneous voltage drop probability calculator 23 Instantaneous voltage drop occurrence record data storage device 24 Result display and information distribution section 30 Information server 31 Computer 32,34 firewall 33 system operation system 35 network 36,37,38 Power users

Continuation of front page (51) Int.Cl. ⁷ Identification code FI theme code (reference)

Claims (7)

[Claims] 1. A system for predicting an instantaneous voltage drop due to a lightning strike, a past lightning strike data storage means for storing past lightning strike data, a past instantaneous voltage drop data storage means for storing past instantaneous voltage drop data, and a weather condition. Using the data and the stored contents of the past lightning strike data storage means, the lightning strike destination prediction means for predicting the position of the lightning strike, and the forecast result of the lightning strike destination prediction means and the lightning strike risk due to geographical factors are used. The power receiving line extraction means for extracting the data of the power transmission line having a high possibility of lightning, and the extracted contents of the power transmission line and the stored contents of the past instantaneous voltage drop data storage means An instantaneous voltage drop prediction system due to a lightning strike, comprising: an instantaneous voltage drop probability calculating means for calculating an instantaneous voltage drop probability. 2. The lightning strike destination prediction means comprises one or more inference engines for predicting the location of a lightning strike in response to the input of the storage contents of the past lightning strike data storage means and the meteorological data. The instantaneous voltage drop prediction system according to claim 1, wherein: 3. The instantaneous voltage drop probability calculating means calculates the system voltage using an assumed accident simulation function,
The instantaneous voltage drop prediction system according to claim 1, wherein the instantaneous voltage drop probability is calculated. 4. The instantaneous voltage drop prediction system displays the stored contents of the past lightning strike data storage means and the past instantaneous voltage drop data storage means, the prediction result of the lightning strike destination prediction means, and the calculation result of the instantaneous drop probability calculation means. The instantaneous voltage drop prediction system according to claim 1, further comprising: information distribution means for distributing to the power user via the network according to a level desired by the power user. 5. A method of predicting an instantaneous voltage drop due to a lightning strike, where the destination of a lightning strike position is predicted using weather data and past lightning strike data, and the risk of lightning strike depending on the result of the prediction and geographical factors. To extract the data of the power transmission line with a high probability of being struck by lightning, and use the extracted data of the power transmission line and the past instantaneous voltage drop data to calculate the instantaneous voltage drop probability of the power receiving destination. Prediction method for instantaneous voltage drop due to lightning. 6. A storage medium used by a computer for predicting an instantaneous voltage drop due to a lightning strike, the step of predicting a destination of a lightning strike position using weather data and past lightning strike data, Using the result and the risk of lightning strike due to geographical factors, the step of extracting the data of the transmission line with a high probability of lightning, and the data of the extracted transmission line and the past instantaneous voltage drop data are used. A computer-readable portable storage medium storing a program for causing a computer to execute the step of calculating the instantaneous voltage drop probability of a power receiving destination. 7. A program used by a computer for predicting an instantaneous drop in voltage due to a lightning strike, a procedure for predicting a destination of a lightning strike position using meteorological data and past lightning strike data, and a result of the prediction. And the risk of lightning strikes due to geographical factors, a procedure for extracting data of a transmission line with a high possibility of lightning, and using the extracted transmission line data and past instantaneous voltage drop data, A program for causing a computer to execute the procedure for calculating the instantaneous voltage drop probability of the power receiving destination.