JP2002281665A - Optimal operation scheduling method of power generation equipment - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To solve the problem of the conventional system for scheduling an optimal operation relating to power generation equipment being not provided with risk managing technique, and a large amount of loss being generated when power generation change occurs, so that stable business profit cannot be obtained. SOLUTION: This scheduling method is provided with a step for setting power selling price for each time zone, a step for detecting an operating state which the power generation equipment can obtain in each of the time zones and registering profit every transition path arriving the operating state, and a step for scheduling an operation of the power generation equipment, on the basis of a transition path which can maximize the profit finally. The profit in each of the time zones is obtained, by subtracting the loss generated by power generation change from the profit generated by power selling.

Description

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention formulates an optimal operation plan for each power generation facility owned by a power generation company having one or more power generation facilities so as to maximize profits obtained by selling power to a power market. More particularly, the present invention relates to an optimal operation plan formulation method for formulating an operation plan in consideration of a risk related to power generation fluctuation.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art Conventionally, in the financial field, stocks, bonds,
Methods and systems have been developed for performing risk management on risks arising from uncertain factors such as price fluctuations for financial instruments composed of interest rates and the like. Anyway,
No method or system has been developed to manage risks arising from fluctuations in power generation, transmission, distribution, etc. in the electricity market that is being formed due to deregulation. In addition, regarding the formulation of an optimal operation plan for power generation equipment owned by a power generation company to maximize the profits of the power generation business, the optimal system It only has the function of formulating an operation plan. Therefore, a system has been developed that can formulate an optimal operation plan for power generation facilities in consideration of risk management for risks arising from power generation fluctuations caused by, for example, fuel shortages, system system instability, and various other uncertain factors. Not been.

[0003]

Since the conventional system for formulating an optimal operation plan for a power generation facility is constructed as described above, a power generation company can apply it to a power market which has not existed before. There is no risk management method, and when power generation fluctuates, a large amount of loss may be incurred, and there is a problem that stable business profits cannot be obtained.

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION The present invention has been made to solve the above-described problems, and formulates an optimal operation plan of a power generation facility in consideration of a risk associated with power generation fluctuation so that a stable business profit can be obtained. The purpose is to obtain an optimal operation plan formulation method that can be used.

[0005]

According to the present invention, there is provided a method for formulating an optimal operation plan of a power generation facility, comprising: a first step of setting a selling price to an electric power market for each predetermined time zone; Detecting the possible operating states of the power generation equipment, and for each of the operating states, if the operating state indicates the operation of the power generation equipment, the optimal amount of power generation that can be most profitable in the target time zone And calculating a transition path to reach the operation state regardless of the operation or stoppage of the power generation equipment and a profit obtained from the initial state by passing through the transition path. Detecting, from among the possible operating states, the operating state in which the profit from the initial state is the greatest, and specifying the transition route to reach the operating state, And a third step of formulating an operation plan of the power generation equipment based on the power generation. In the calculation of the optimal power generation performed in the second step, the profit based on the power generation is generated from the profit generated by the power sales. In such a case, the loss attributable to the risk according to (1) is reduced.

[0006] A method for formulating an optimal operation plan of a power generation facility according to the present invention comprises a first step of setting a power selling price to an electric power market for each predetermined time slot, and a step of setting a power generation facility for each predetermined time slot. Detecting the operating state to be obtained, and calculating the optimum amount of power generation that can be most profitable in the target time zone when the operating state indicates the operation of the power generation equipment, and A second step of registering a transition path that reaches the operation state regardless of the operation of the equipment and a profit obtained from the initial state by passing through the transition path; Among them, the operating state that maximizes the profit from the initial state is detected, the transition path that reaches the operating state is specified, and power generation is performed based on the specified transition path. And a third step of formulating an operation plan of the equipment. In the second step, when registering a profit obtained through a transition route to reach the operation state for each operation state, The profit obtained in the target time zone by taking the operation state is obtained by subtracting the loss caused by the power generation risk from the profit generated by selling the electric power when the power generation equipment generates the optimum amount of power generation. It is like that.

In the method for formulating an optimal operation plan of a power generation facility according to the present invention, a loss caused by a risk relating to power generation is regarded as a loss caused by fluctuations in power generation.

The method for formulating an optimal operation plan for a power generation facility according to the present invention is based on the fact that the probability distribution of the probability of occurrence of power generation fluctuation follows a uniform distribution having a constant value within a predetermined power generation amount range. The resulting loss is determined.

According to a method of formulating an optimal operation plan of a power generation facility according to the present invention, a loss caused by a power generation fluctuation is obtained based on a probability distribution of an occurrence probability of the power generation fluctuation following a normal distribution.

[0010] In the method of formulating an optimal operation plan of a power generation facility according to the present invention, a loss caused by a power generation fluctuation is obtained based on a probability distribution of an occurrence probability of the power generation fluctuation following a lognormal distribution. .

According to the method for formulating an optimal operation plan of a power generation facility according to the present invention, power generation fluctuations are generated in a simulated manner based on a predetermined distribution form of a probability distribution of the generation probability of the power generation fluctuations. Losses caused by fluctuations in power generation are determined based on fluctuations in power generation simulated for each operating state, and the steps from the first step to the third step are repeatedly performed for a predetermined number of samples. An optimal operation plan is selected from a plurality of operation plans.

The method for formulating an optimal operation plan for a power generation facility according to the present invention is arranged such that the power generation fluctuation is generated in a pseudo manner based on the fact that the generation event of the power generation fluctuation follows the Poisson distribution and the magnitude of the power generation fluctuation follows the Gaussian distribution. It was done.

[0013] In the method for formulating an optimal operation plan of a power generation facility according to the present invention, a price for selling power to an electric power market is set based on data transmission via the Internet.

According to the method for formulating an optimal operation plan of a power generation facility according to the present invention, a distribution form relating to a probability distribution of occurrence probability of power generation fluctuation is set based on data transmission via the Internet.

[0015]

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS One embodiment of the present invention will be described below. Embodiment 1 FIG. In order to clearly disclose the invention of the present application, a method of formulating an optimal operation plan for a power generation facility on the assumption that a power generation company supplies a contracted amount of electric power in an electric power market as scheduled will be described. The optimal operation plan formulated here is to determine the operating conditions and operating conditions of each power generation facility owned by the power generation company for each predetermined time period for which a bid is to be made, so as to maximize the profits of the power generation company. , And the objective function is given by equation (1).

(Equation 1) However, C _ti in the equation (1) is calculated based on the following equation (2).

(Equation 2)

Various restrictions are imposed on each power generation facility owned by the power generation company based on the type, structure, and the like of the power generation facility. First, for each power generation facility, the constraints on the amount of power generated by the power generation facility are as follows:
It is given by the following equation (3).

(Equation 3) In addition, for each power generation facility, a constraint condition related to an increase rate (output change rate) of a power generation amount per one time zone set as a reference is given by the following equation (4).

(Equation 4) In addition, for each power generation facility, a constraint condition relating to an operation time required to continue the power generation after starting the power generation is given by the following equation (5).

(Equation 5) In addition, for each power generation facility, a constraint condition relating to a stop time necessary to cool the power generation facility after power generation is temporarily stopped until power generation is started again is given by the following equation (6).

(Equation 6)

Here, the contents represented by the variables used in the expressions representing the objective function and the constraint conditions will be described. U _ti is the operating state of the power generation equipment i at time t (operating: 1, stopping: 0), _nm is the number of power markets,
N is the number of power generation facilities, T is the total number of time periods (hereinafter, referred to as auction time periods), each of which is a unit to be bid for power sales to the power market, and p _mt is the power market m in the bid time period t. , Q _mti is the amount of power sold (MW) of the power generation equipment i to the power generation market m during the bidding time zone t, C _ti is the operating cost of the power generation equipment i during the bidding time zone t, and TC _mti is the bidding time. Transmission cost of power generation equipment i to power market m in zone t,
a _i , b _i , and c _i are coefficients for calculating the fuel cost of the power generation equipment i, S
T _i is the start-up cost of power generation equipment i, and Q _i ^min is the power generation equipment i
The minimum amount of power generated by the _maximum amount of power generated by the ^{Q i max} power generating plant i,
X _ti ^on a continuous operating time of at time t of power generation equipment i, X
_ti ^off is the continuous stop time at the time t of the power generation equipment i, T
_i ^minup is the minimum operation time of the power generation equipment i, T _i
^mindn is the minimum stop time of the power generation equipment i, and R _i is the maximum output change rate of the power generation equipment i.

In the calculation of the optimal operation plan based on the objective function and the constraint described above, "the total demand in the power market is sufficiently larger than the total power generation obtained by one or a plurality of power generation facilities owned by one power generation company. It is also possible to make the same electric power market the target of bidding for the output power from all the power generation facilities held in an arbitrary bidding time zone on the assumption that there are many. In other words, there is no need for coordination between the power generation facilities owned by the power generation company, and individual power generation facilities can be sold at the highest power selling price among multiple power markets for each bidding period. By bidding independently on, it is possible to maximize the profits of the entire power generation equipment owned by the power generation company. The power selling price is given as a cost _obtained by subtracting the power transmission cost TC _mti from the predicted bid price p _mt, and the power selling revenue is (p _mt −TC
_mti ) · Q _mti .

Next, an algorithm for formulating an optimal operation plan of the power generation facility will be described. In this formulating algorithm, for each power generation facility, the operation status (operating / operating /
(Operating state related to the stop) and the amount of power generation in the operating state, the profit is calculated, and all possible transition paths of the power generation equipment for the operating state are searched, from among the plurality of searched transition paths. Develop an optimal operation plan based on identifying transition paths that can maximize profits. Hereinafter, t is a bid time zone, k is a variable for identifying each possible operating state of the power generation equipment, and k is a variable obtained from the initial operation state of the power generation equipment when the power generation equipment is in the operation state k in the bid time zone t. Assuming that the profit to be ^obtained is expressed as P _{tk, a} processing procedure according to the calculation algorithm will be described. Incidentally, bid on each operating state k to the power generation equipment can take in the time period t, the transition path to reach the operating state k, and profit P _t ^k obtained by passing through the transition path is registered Shall be performed. Step 1: For each bidding time zone, a power market having the highest predicted bidding price is detected in advance. That is, for the power generation facilities for which the operation plan is to be formulated, the power selling price for each auction time zone is set. Step 2: The operation state of the power generation equipment is set to the initial state, and the calculation time is set to zero. Step 3: Regarding the bidding time t, if t = T, proceed to step 5. If t ≠ T, for each possible operating state k of the power generation facility in the bidding period t, the constraint on the operating time shown in equation (5) and the constraint on the stop time shown in equation (6) On the basis of the,
A set of operating states k that can transition in the next bidding time zone t + 1 is obtained. Step 4: For each driving state k that can be taken in the bidding time zone t + 1 specified by the processing of step 3, a transition path until reaching the driving state k, and a profit P _{t + 1} obtained through the transition path ^k is registered for the operating state k. In addition, the bidding time zone t +
If there are a plurality of transition paths that can reach the operation state for each of the operation states k that can be taken in step 1, only the transition path that can obtain the maximum profit P _{t +1} ^k and the maximum profit P _{t + 1} ^k is operated. It shall be registered for state k. Then, if the above processing is completed for all possible driving states k in the bidding time zone t + 1, t = t +
Return to step 3 as 1 Step 5: For each of the possible driving states k in the bidding time zone T, the driving state k in which the maximum profit P _T ^k is obtained is detected, and the transition route to reach the driving state k is specified. Formulate an operation plan for the power generation facility based on the transition path.

The above-mentioned optimal operation plan formulation algorithm will be specifically described. Here, it is assumed that an optimal operation plan is formulated by taking as an example a case where the minimum operation time T _i ^minup for the power generation equipment is 4 and the minimum stop time T _i ^mindn for the power generation equipment is 4. In such a case, for example, as shown below, eight operating states k
(K = 1 to 8) can be defined. Operating state 1: The elapsed time since the start of operation is 1. Operating state 2: The elapsed time since the start of operation is 2. Operating state 3: The elapsed time since the start of operation is 3. Operating state 4: The elapsed time since the start of operation is 4 or more. Operating state 5: The elapsed time since the operation was stopped is 1. Operating state 6: The elapsed time since the operation was stopped is 2. Operating state 7: The elapsed time since the operation was stopped is 3. Operating state 8: The elapsed time since the operation was stopped is 4 or more.

FIG. 1 shows, for each operating state k,
This shows an operation state in which a transition can be made next from the operation state. As shown in FIG. 1, after starting the power generation, it is necessary to maintain the operation state until the state 4 is reached based on the constraint condition regarding the operation time shown in Expression (5). In state 4, since four or more times have already passed, the operating state may be continued (state 4) or the operation may be stopped (state 5).

FIG. 2 is a diagram showing the possible operating states of the power generation equipment and the transition paths to reach the operating states. FIG. 2 shows, as an example, a case where the initial state of the power generation equipment, that is, the operation state in the bidding time zone 0 is state 1, shows an operation state that the power generation equipment can take and a transition route to reach the operation state. Yes, the operating state that the power generation equipment can take in each bidding time zone is indicated by a circle, and the transition path leading to the operating state is indicated by an arrow. In this power generation facility, it is necessary to maintain the operation state until the bidding time zone 3 based on the constraint condition relating to the operation time shown in Expression (5). In bid period 4, power generation may be continued (state 4) or power generation may be stopped (state 5). Further, once the power generation is stopped, for example, when the power generation is stopped in the bidding time zone 4 based on the restriction condition regarding the stop time shown in Expression (6), the stopped state is maintained until the bidding time zone 7. There is a need. Also, when there are a plurality of transition routes that can reach the driving state as in the state 8 of the bidding time zone 8, the profit obtained through each transition path that reaches the driving state is calculated. And the transition path with the greatest benefit (in this case,
Only the transition route arriving from the state 7 in the bidding time zone 7 is valid. Then, in the bidding time zone 10, which is the final bidding time zone, for each of the possible operating states of the power generation equipment, the operating state that maximizes the profit from the initial state registered for the operating state is detected. For example, if the driving state in which the maximum profit is obtained in the bidding time zone 10 is state 4, the transition path 1 reaching this state 4
Is specified, and an operation plan of the power generation facility is formulated based on the transition path 1. That is, if the operating state j of the bidding time zone i is represented by (i, j), (1, 2) → (2, 3) →
(3,4) → (4,4) → (5,4) → (6,4) →
An operation plan for the power generation facility is formulated based on the transition path specified by (7, 4) → (8, 4) → (9, 4) → (10, 4).

For each possible operating state in each bidding time zone, the optimum power generation amount to be calculated so that the power generation equipment can obtain the maximum profit in the target bidding time zone is given by the following equation (1). And the objective function given as Expression (2) and the constraint given as Expressions (3) and (4), and are obtained based on Expression (7) shown below.

(Equation 7) In the above equation (7), the value of (P _mt −b _i ) / 2a _i is _obtained by partially differentiating the objective function of the equation (1) with the power sale amount Q _mti, and the value of the objective function of the equation (1) is obtained. It gives the extremum.

Next, a description will be given of the loss incurred by the power generation company due to the power generation fluctuation, that is, the risk relating to the power generation fluctuation. FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating an example of power generation fluctuation. In FIG. 3, the solid line represents the contracted power generation scheduled to be generated based on a contract in the power market, and the dotted line represents the actual power generation.
As shown in FIG. 3, when the contracted power generation amount does not coincide with the actual power generation amount, and an event occurs in which the contracted power generation amount and the actual power generation amount differ, that is, when a power generation fluctuation occurs, the contracted power generation amount depends on the magnitude of the power generation fluctuation. Power producers will incur losses. Explaining the loss of the power generation company due to fluctuations in power generation, the power generation company has the same amount (the difference between the contracted power generation amount and the actual power generation amount is less than 3% of the contracted power generation for each 30-minute time slot) If that is not achieved, the power company will receive a power service for load fluctuations. In the load fluctuation-response power service, the unit price of the power supplied by the power company is high, and receiving the service causes a large financial loss to the power generation company. For example, FIG.
In the example shown in (1), when only a smaller amount of power than the scheduled contracted power generation can be generated in the time zone of 10:00 to 10:30, the power is received from the power company by receiving the load fluctuation corresponding power service. Will be.

An example of a power service corresponding to a load change will be described. Here, Q _plan is a contracted power generation amount scheduled to be generated in each unit time zone, Q is an actual power generation amount generated in each time period, P
_e is the purchase price per unit power of the power company pertaining to the power exceeding the contracted power generation amount, and _Pc is the payment price per unit power to the power company pertaining to the power shortage than the contracted power generation amount. _{1) 1.03Q plan} <In the case of Q: up to 3% of the excess is the power company buy unconditionally _{P e.} Anything over 3% is free. _{2) Q plan} <In the case of _Q ≦ _1.03Q paln: excess power companies purchase unconditionally _{P e.} 3) In the case of 0.97Q _plan ≦ Q <Q _plan : The power company makes up for the shortfall. The generator pays _Pc to the power company. 4) When 0 <Q <0.97Q _plan : The power company makes up for the shortfall. Power generation operators, pay the P _c to the power company for a shortfall of up to 3%, pay a 1.5P _c for the shortfall in excess of it.

Next, a description will be given of how to formulate an optimal operation plan for a power generation facility in consideration of the risk associated with the power generation fluctuation. With respect to the power generation equipment, the profit obtained in an arbitrary bid time zone is expressed by the following equation (8). B = pQ− (aQ ² + bQ + c) (8) In equation (8), B is a profit function, p is a power selling price, and a,
b and c indicate power generation coefficients for calculating the operating cost of the power generation equipment. The power selling price p is given as a power selling price when selling power to the power market having the highest power selling price during the target bidding time zone, and is set in advance in the initial stage of formulating the optimal operation plan. Is what is done.

On the other hand, the profit and loss L due to the load fluctuation response power is:
It is calculated by the following equations (9) to (12). L (Q) = 1.5P_c(0.97Q_plan−Q) + 0.03P_cQ_{pla n}  (0 <Q <0.97Q_plan(9) L (Q) = P_c(Q_plan-Q) (0.97Q_plan≦ Q <Q_plan(10) L (Q) = (Q−Q)_plan) (P-P_e(Q_plan<Q ≦ 1.03Q_plan(11) L (Q) = (Q−1.03Q)_plan) P + 0.03Q_plan(Pp_e ) (1.03Q_plan<Q) (12) FIG. 4 shows the relationship between the power generation amount Q and the profit / loss
It is a graph which shows a relationship. According to Embodiment 1 of the present invention
In the optimal operation planning method, power generation fluctuation risk,
Loss R caused by power generation fluctuation is assumed to be the expected value of profit and loss L
Give. Therefore, the power generation fluctuation risk R is shown below.
It is calculated by equation (13).

(Equation 8) Further, the profit function B in consideration of the power generation fluctuation risk R is represented by the following equation (14). B = pQ− (aQ ² + bQ + c) −R (14) With respect to equation (14), the power generation amount that gives an extreme value for the profit function B, that is, the power generation amount Q that gives ∂B / ∂Q = 0
_{Let opt} be the optimal power generation amount.

As described above, the method for formulating the optimal operation plan of the power generation equipment according to the first embodiment of the present invention basically uses the algorithm for formulating the optimal operation plan already described, It is characterized in that when calculating the optimal power generation amount for each of the possible operating states k in the time zone, the profit based on the power generation amount is obtained by subtracting the power generation fluctuation risk R from the profit generated by the power sales. That is, in equation (7),
The above-described optimum power generation amount Q _opt is substituted for the value of (P _mt −b _i ) / 2a _i to determine the power generation amount in each bidding time zone.

Here, a method of calculating the power generation fluctuation risk R that affects the calculation of the optimum power generation amount will be described. First
To be described occurrence probability P of the generator varies with each bid time zone (Q) is predetermined section [αQ _plan, βQ _plan] For a uniform distribution as a constant value. FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating a probability distribution when the relationship between the power generation fluctuation and the occurrence probability of the power generation fluctuation has a uniform distribution. In FIG. 5, 0 <α <
0.97 and β> 1.03. At this time, the power generation fluctuation risk R is obtained by a simple calculation as shown in the following equation (15). R = κQ _plan (15) Therefore, the optimal power generation amount Q in consideration of the power generation fluctuation risk R
_opt is similarly given by the following equation (16) as a power generation amount Q that gives 利益 B / ∂Q = 0 for the profit function B. Q _opt = (p−b−κ) / 2a (16)

Second, a case where the probability distribution of the occurrence probability P (Q) of the power generation fluctuation in each bidding time zone follows a normal distribution will be described. The probability of occurrence P (Q) when following a normal distribution is
It is given by the following equation (17).

(Equation 9) Also in this case, it is possible to analytically determine the optimal power generation amount in each bidding time zone. Power generation fluctuations are social,
It occurs based on numerous factors such as mechanical and human factors. Variations caused by many factors can be mathematically well approximated by a normal distribution (large number law)
Thus, it is possible to improve the accuracy of modeling of power generation fluctuations and to formulate a more profitable operation plan for the power generation equipment. However, when applying a normal distribution, Q <
Even at 0, the value of P (Q) is larger than 0, so some kind of correction is required mathematically.

Third, a case where the probability distribution of the occurrence probability P (Q) of the power generation fluctuation in each bidding time zone follows a lognormal distribution will be described. Normal probability P when following lognormal distribution
(Q) is given by the following equation (18).

(Equation 10) Also in this case, the calculation is difficult, but it is possible to analytically determine the optimum power generation amount. When this lognormal distribution is applied, the value of P (Q) at Q <0 can be set to 0, so that it is possible to improve the modeling accuracy relating to power generation fluctuation.

As described above, according to the first embodiment, the profit based on the power generation amount is calculated from the profit generated by the power sales when the optimum power generation amount is obtained for each operating state that can be taken in an arbitrary bidding time zone. Since the system is designed to reduce the loss caused by power generation fluctuations, it is possible to formulate an optimal operation plan for power generation facilities that takes into account the risks associated with power generation fluctuations, and to achieve stable business profits. It works.

In the first embodiment, the power generation fluctuation risk R is reduced by the loss L for each bidding time zone and operating state based on the distribution pattern that the probability distribution of the power generation fluctuation occurrence probability P (Q) follows. It discloses a method for determining an optimal operation plan for a power generation facility by obtaining the expected value of the power generation facility. On the other hand, as a modified example of the first embodiment, a method of generating a power generation fluctuation in a simulated manner and formulating an optimal operation plan for each bidding time zone and each operating state using computer simulation is also effective. Can be used. This method is basically implemented by employing the Monte Carlo method. Specifically, Step 4 of the optimal operation plan formulation algorithm
In the calculation of the optimal power generation amount performed in the above, the power generation equipment in the operating state is simulated based on the distribution form (normal distribution, lognormal distribution, etc.) related to the probability distribution of the occurrence probability of the power generation fluctuation set in advance. A power generation fluctuation is given, and a loss based on the power generation fluctuation is subtracted from a profit generated by selling electricity to calculate a profit based on a power generation amount. Then, in this method, the above-described optimal operation plan formulation simulation is performed on a predetermined number of samples (for example, 1000 samples), and a plurality of formulated operation plans are statistically processed, and the statistics are calculated. Based on the plurality of operation plans, an optimum operation plan is selected.

Further, by using the above-described computer simulation, it is also possible to model an abrupt or random power generation fluctuation and to formulate an optimum operation plan of the power generation equipment. In this case, the generation event of the power generation fluctuation is modeled by the Poisson distribution, and the magnitude of the power generation fluctuation is modeled by the Gauss distribution. Specifically, in step 4 of the optimal operation plan formulation algorithm, Ga related to the magnitude of the power generation fluctuation in an arbitrary bidding time zone based on the Poisson distribution related to the occurrence event.
A power generation fluctuation of an arbitrary magnitude based on the uss distribution is imitated, and a loss based on the power generation fluctuation is reduced to calculate a profit based on the power generation amount.

It is preferable that software for executing the method for formulating an optimal operation plan according to the first embodiment can be used on the Internet. By using the Internet in this way, it is possible to set a power selling price to an electric power market in real time, and to construct a system combined with bidding. In addition, by collecting information on the distribution form related to the probability distribution of the occurrence probability of power generation fluctuations and data such as market information in real time, the modeling accuracy of power generation fluctuations is improved, and the profitability of the power generation equipment is improved. It is possible to formulate a high operation plan.

Embodiment 2 The method for formulating an optimal operation plan for a power generation facility according to Embodiment 2 of the present invention determines the optimal power generation amount for each bidding time zone based on a normal profit function without considering the power generation fluctuation risk, Is different from that of the first embodiment in that the profit obtained by the power generation facility is obtained by subtracting the loss caused by the fluctuation in power generation from the profit generated by selling electricity when the power generation equipment generates the optimum amount of power.

In the second embodiment, equation (8) is adopted as a profit function indicating a profit obtained in an arbitrary bidding time zone. Therefore, the power generation amount Q _opt that gives ∂B / ∂Q = 0 is (p−b) / 2a. And
When registering the profit for each transition path, the profit B ′ obtained for the target bidding time zone is represented by the following equation (19) by reducing the loss caused by power generation fluctuation. B ′ = pQ _opt − (aQ _opt ² + bQ _opt + c) −R (19)

As described above, the method for formulating an optimal operation plan for a power generation facility according to the second embodiment of the present invention basically uses the algorithm for formulating an optimal operation plan already described, For each operating state k that can be taken in the time zone, when registering the profit obtained through the transition route to reach the operating state, the profit obtained in the target bidding time zone is determined by the optimal power generation The characteristic feature is that it is obtained by subtracting the loss caused by fluctuations in power generation from the profit generated by selling the power generated by the method.

Also, in the method for formulating an optimal operation plan of the power generation equipment according to the second embodiment, the loss caused by the power generation fluctuation, that is, the power generation fluctuation risk R is given as the expected value of the profit and loss L, In the same manner, a uniform distribution, a normal distribution, a log-normal distribution, and the like are handled as distribution forms related to the probability distribution of the occurrence probability of power generation fluctuation in.
Further, it is also possible to simulate actual power generation fluctuations in each bidding time zone by using a computer simulation, and to select an optimal operation plan from a plurality of operation plans respectively formulated for a predetermined number of samples. On this occasion,
As in the first embodiment, the generation event of the power generation fluctuation is Pois
In addition to modeling with a son distribution, the magnitude of power generation fluctuation can be modeled with a Gaussian distribution. Further, it is preferable that software for executing the method for formulating an optimal operation plan of the power generation equipment according to the second embodiment be made available on the Internet.

As described above, according to the second embodiment, the same effects as those of the first embodiment can be obtained, and when registering the profit obtained through an arbitrary transition path,
The profit in the target bidding period obtained by taking the operating state reached by the transition route is calculated from the profit generated by selling electricity when the power generation equipment generates the optimum amount of power, and the loss due to power generation fluctuation. Since it is configured to be calculated by subtracting it, the optimal power generation can be calculated without considering the power generation fluctuation risk, and the loss caused by the power generation fluctuation can be calculated for the optimal power generation given as a constant. This makes it easy to calculate the profit and the profit, and the overall calculation time for formulating the optimal operation plan can be shortened.

It should be noted that the method for formulating an optimal operation plan for a power generation facility disclosed in the first and second embodiments is an example of the present invention and does not limit the technical scope thereof. Please note. The technical scope of the present invention is defined based on the description of the claims,
The technical idea equivalent to the scope of the claims and various design changes within the scope of the claims are included in the present invention.

[0042]

As described above, according to the present invention, the first step of setting the selling price to the electric power market in each predetermined time zone, and the power generation equipment can be installed in each predetermined time zone. Detecting the operating state and calculating the optimal amount of power generation that can be most profitable in the target time zone when the operating state indicates the operation of the power generation equipment for each operation state, and A second step of registering a transition route that reaches the operation state regardless of the operation or stoppage of the vehicle and a profit obtained from the initial state by passing through the transition path; From, the operating state that maximizes the profit from the initial state is detected, and the transition path that reaches the operating state is identified. Based on the identified transition path, the operation plan of the power generation equipment is determined. And a third step of formulating,
In the calculation of the optimal power generation amount performed in the second step, since the profit based on the power generation amount is obtained by subtracting the loss caused by the risk related to the power generation from the profit generated by the power sales, Since it is possible to formulate an optimal operation plan of the power generation facility in consideration of risks, there is an effect that stable business profits can be obtained.

According to the present invention, the first step of setting the selling price to the electric power market for each predetermined time zone, and detecting the possible operating state of the power generation equipment for each predetermined time zone,
For each operating state, if the operating state indicates the operation of the power generation equipment, calculate the optimal amount of power generation that can be most profitable in the target time zone, regardless of whether the power generation equipment is operating or stopped. A second step of registering the transition route to reach the driving state and the profit obtained from the initial state by passing through the transition path, and in the last time zone, the profit from the initial state is obtained from the possible driving states. A third step of detecting a maximum operating state and identifying a transition route that reaches the operating state, and formulating an operation plan of the power generation facility based on the identified transition path, In the step, when registering the profit obtained through the transition route to reach the driving state for each driving state, To obtain the profit obtained in the target time zone by subtracting the loss caused by the power generation risk from the profit generated by selling electricity when the power generation equipment generates the optimum amount of power generation So
Since it is possible to formulate an optimal operation plan of the power generation facility in consideration of the risk relating to power generation, it is possible to obtain a stable business profit. In addition, it is possible to calculate the optimal amount of power generation without considering the risks related to power generation, and to calculate the loss due to the risks related to power generation for the optimal amount of power generation given as a constant, making it easy to calculate the amount of power generation and profit. Thus, there is an effect that the overall calculation time for formulating the optimal operation plan can be reduced.

According to the present invention, the loss caused by the power generation fluctuation is determined based on the fact that the probability distribution of the generation probability of the power generation fluctuation follows a uniform distribution having a constant value within a predetermined power generation amount range. Therefore, there is an effect that the optimum power generation amount in each time zone can be analytically obtained by a simple calculation.

According to the present invention, the loss generated due to the power generation fluctuation is determined based on the probability distribution of the generation probability of the power generation fluctuation following a normal distribution. In addition to being able to be obtained analytically, there is an effect that it is possible to improve the accuracy of modeling of power generation fluctuations and to formulate a more profitable operation plan for the power generation equipment.

According to the present invention, the loss generated due to the power generation fluctuation is determined based on the probability distribution of the generation probability of the power generation fluctuation following a lognormal distribution. Can be obtained analytically, and the probability of occurrence for negative power generation can be reduced to zero, so the modeling accuracy of power generation fluctuations is improved and a more profitable operation plan for power generation equipment is formulated. There is an effect that can be.

According to the present invention, power generation fluctuations are generated in a simulated manner on the basis of a predetermined distribution pattern relating to the occurrence probability of the power generation fluctuations. The loss caused by the power generation fluctuation is determined based on the fluctuation, and the first to third steps are repeatedly performed on a predetermined number of samples, so that an optimal operation plan is determined from a plurality of operation plans formulated respectively. Because it was configured to select, the operation plan formulated for each sample was statistically processed using computer simulation, and the optimal operation plan for the power generation equipment could be selected. Profit can be statistically predicted, and there is an effect that more stable business profit can be obtained.

According to the present invention, the power generation fluctuation is generated in a pseudo manner based on the fact that the generation event of the power generation fluctuation follows the Poisson distribution and the magnitude of the power generation fluctuation follows the Gaussian distribution. Therefore, there is an effect that the business profit can be stabilized even when the power generation fluctuates.

According to the present invention, since the selling price to the power market is set based on the data transmission via the Internet, there is an effect that the system can be constructed together with the bidding.

According to the present invention, since the distribution form relating to the probability distribution of the occurrence probability of power generation fluctuation is set based on data transmission via the Internet, social and mechanical influences on power generation fluctuation are set. Since data on various factors such as human beings can be collected in real time and the distribution form considered to be most appropriate at that time can be set, the accuracy of modeling of power generation fluctuations is improved, There is an effect that a profitable operation plan can be formulated.

[Brief description of the drawings]

FIG. 1 is a diagram showing a transition state of an operating state.

FIG. 2 is a diagram showing possible operating states of a power generation facility and transition paths to reach the operating states.

FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating an example of power generation fluctuation.

FIG. 4 is a diagram showing a relationship between a power generation amount and a profit / loss.

FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating a probability distribution when the relationship between the power generation fluctuation and the occurrence probability of the power generation fluctuation has a uniform distribution.

Claims (10)

[Claims] 1. A first step of setting a selling price to an electric power market for each predetermined time zone, detecting an operating state of a power generation facility that can be taken for each predetermined time zone, and operating each state. If the operating state indicates the operation of the power generation equipment, calculate the optimal amount of power generation that can be most profitable in the target time zone, and enter the operating state regardless of whether the power generation equipment is operating or stopped. A second step of registering a transition path to be reached and a profit obtained from the initial state by passing through the transition path; and a driving operation in which the profit from the initial state is the largest among the possible driving states in the last time zone. Detecting the state and specifying the transition route to reach the driving state,
And a third step of formulating an operation plan for the power generation equipment based on the specified transition path. In the calculation of the optimum power generation amount performed in the second step, a profit based on the power generation amount is calculated. A method for formulating an optimal operation plan for a power generation facility, wherein the method is obtained by subtracting a loss attributable to power generation risks from a profit generated by power sales. 2. A first step of setting a selling price to an electric power market for each predetermined time zone, detecting an operating state of the power generation equipment that can be taken for each predetermined time zone, and operating each state. If the operating state indicates the operation of the power generation equipment, calculate the optimal amount of power generation that can be most profitable in the target time zone, and enter the operating state regardless of whether the power generation equipment is operating or stopped. A second step of registering a transition path to be reached and a profit obtained from the initial state by passing through the transition path; and a driving operation in which the profit from the initial state is the largest among the possible driving states in the last time zone. Detecting the state and specifying the transition route to reach the driving state,
And a third step of formulating an operation plan of the power generation equipment based on the specified transition path. In the second step, a transition path that reaches the operation state is determined for each operation state. When registering the profits obtained through the operation, the profits obtained in the target time zone by taking the operating state are calculated from the profits generated by the power sales when the power generation equipment generates the optimum amount of power generation. A method for formulating an optimal operation plan of a power generation facility, wherein the method is obtained by reducing a loss caused by the risk according to (1). 3. The method according to claim 1, wherein the loss attributable to the power generation risk is a loss attributable to power generation fluctuation. 4. The method according to claim 3, wherein a loss caused by the power generation fluctuation is obtained based on a fact that the probability distribution of the generation probability of the power generation fluctuation follows a uniform distribution having a constant value within a predetermined power generation amount range. The method for formulating an optimal operation plan for the power generation equipment described in the table. 5. The method according to claim 3, wherein a loss caused by the power generation fluctuation is determined based on a probability distribution of the generation probability of the power generation fluctuation following a normal distribution. 6. The method according to claim 3, wherein a loss caused by the power generation fluctuation is determined based on a probability distribution of the generation probability of the power generation fluctuation following a lognormal distribution. . 7. A power generation fluctuation is generated in a pseudo manner based on a predetermined distribution form of a probability distribution of a power generation fluctuation occurrence probability, and the power generation fluctuation generated in a pseudo manner for each time zone and operating state. From the plurality of operation plans determined by repeatedly performing the first to third steps for a predetermined number of samples, an optimum operation plan is determined from the loss generated due to power generation fluctuation based on The method for formulating an optimal operation plan for a power generation facility according to claim 3, wherein the method is selected. 8. The optimal power generation equipment according to claim 7, wherein the power generation fluctuation is generated in a pseudo manner based on the fact that the generation event of the power generation fluctuation follows the Poisson distribution and the magnitude of the power generation fluctuation follows the Gaussian distribution. Operation plan formulation method. 9. The method according to claim 1, wherein the selling price to the power market is set based on data transmission via the Internet. 10. The method according to claim 3, wherein a distribution form relating to a probability distribution of a probability of occurrence of power generation fluctuation is set based on data transmission via the Internet.