JP2002024471A - System and method for estimating utilization conditions of traffic facilities - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a traffic facility utilization condition estimating system capable of exactly grasping the utilization conditions of traffic facilities in a wide scale and in real time and rightly evaluating the effect of measures, business strategy, the merit by an event by an en enterpriser. SOLUTION: This traffic facility utilization condition estimating system is provided with a communication control part 11 for receiving utilization condition information from plural stations, input part 12 for directly inputting the information, utilization data totaling processing part 13 for totaling and processing the utilization condition information while sorting them for each of items, data storage part 14 for sorting various kinds of information data, event effect estimating part 15 for grasping the utilization conditions of traffic facilities from various kinds of information data and evaluating the effect of measures, business strategy, the merit by an event by the enterpriser and an output part 16 such as display device or printer for outputting the estimated result.

Description

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a transportation use estimation system and a transportation use estimation method capable of estimating the use of transportation such as railways, ships, aircraft, and toll roads for automobiles. In particular, the present invention relates to a transportation use estimation system and a transportation use estimation method capable of grasping the use of the transportation at the time of an event in a surrounding area of the transportation and evaluating the effect of the event.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art Conventionally, the estimation of the use of transportation such as railroads, ships, aircraft, and toll roads for automobiles has been performed as follows. First, in railways, information such as the ticket used by passengers and commuter pass sections, information on the number of passengers, and other information are collected through automatic ticket gates and exit surveys at ticket gates at each station, and based on that information. They understand the usage status of each railway station.

[0003] In addition, regarding the usage status of ships and aircraft, the usage status is grasped by the number of passengers, such as boarding and disembarking on ships and boarding on aircraft. In addition, in transportation such as toll roads for cars, the number of vehicles using toll roads is measured at the entrance of the tollgate,
The use situation is grasped by the information.

[0004] In this way, the collected information on the use status of each transportation means is collected for each predetermined period or section, and
It is accumulated as past transportation use information and is used for estimating user trends.

[0005]

However, according to the conventional method of collecting the use of transportation as described above, the information to be collected is often performed manually.
Large-scale and did not collect in real time. For this reason, when using general environmental factors such as day of the week, season, time zone, weather, and the like, it is difficult to ascertain an accurate usage state when ascertaining the usage state of transportation.

[0006] In addition, in the case of sales strategies such as timetable revisions and various discount services for railways, aircraft, ships, and the like, or at the time of events such as entertainments around stations, airports, ports, and interchanges, these measures are taken. When evaluating the effects, it is necessary to rely on the intuition of experienced and skilled persons, and it has been difficult to correctly evaluate the effects of the measures, the business strategies, and the merits of the business by the event.

[0007] The present invention has been made in view of such problems, and an object thereof is to provide a large-scale transportation system.
By providing a transportation use estimation system and a transportation use estimation method that can be grasped in real time and accurately, and can correctly evaluate the effects of the measures, the business strategies, and the merits of the business by the event, etc. is there.

[0008]

Means for Solving the Problems To solve the above problems, a system for estimating the state of use of a transportation system according to the present invention comprises:
A transportation use estimation system for estimating the use of transportation such as toll roads for ships, airplanes, and automobiles, wherein a storage means for storing transportation usage information, and the transportation stored in the storage means And an event effect estimating means for assessing the effect of the measure, the business strategy, and the merits of the business by the event, etc.

[0009] Further, it is possible to further comprise an information receiving means for receiving the use status information of the transportation means. At this time, the information receiving means may receive the use status information of the transportation means via the network.

[0010] Further, it is possible to provide an information totalizing means for classifying the use status information of the transportation means for each item and to store the information in the accumulating means, and further, an output for outputting the evaluation result from the event effect estimating means. Means can also be provided.

Here, the event effect estimating means determines a similar group having usage information having a tendency to be similar to the usage information of the target group from the usage information of the transportation means stored in the storage means, A similar group extracting means for extracting the usage information of the similar group, and a relation between the usage information of the similar group determined by the similar group extracting means and the usage information of the target group is formed into a mathematical formula to create a model formula. A model formula estimating means for calculating an estimated value from the model formula, a use result collecting means for collecting actual use status information (actual value) of the target group, an estimated value calculated by the model formula estimating means, An actual value comparison unit that compares the actual value collected by the actual result collection unit;
Can be provided.

Further, the event effect estimating means further comprises:
An event effect calculation determination unit that calculates the effect of the event of the target group from the comparison result of the actual value comparison unit and determines the calculation result may be provided.

[0013] In order to solve the above-mentioned problems, a method for estimating the state of use of a transportation system according to the present invention comprises:
This is a method of estimating the use of transportation by estimating the use of transportation, such as toll roads for automobiles. And evaluate the effect of the measures, the business strategy, and the merits of the business by the event based on the grasped use of transportation.

Here, the use status information of the transportation means can be received via a network. In addition, the transportation use status information may be classified and stored for each item. The method may further include a step of outputting a result of the evaluation.

Here, the step of grasping the use situation is as follows:
A similar group having usage information that tends to be similar to the usage information of the target group is determined from the accumulated transportation usage information, and the usage information of the similar group is extracted. Formulate the relationship between the group usage status information and the target group usage status information to create a model formula, calculate the estimated value from the model formula, and collect the actual usage status information (actual value) of the target group Then, the calculated estimated value can be compared with the collected actual value. At this time, the step of evaluating the merit and the like is performed by calculating the effect of the event of the target group from the comparison result between the estimated value and the actual value in the step of grasping the usage status, and determining the calculation result. Is also good.

An estimated value in the case where there is no event or the like is calculated from the similar group, and this estimated value is compared with the actual actual value when the event or the like occurs. In addition, it is possible to accurately grasp the effect of the measure, the business strategy, and the merits of the business operator due to the event, and the like.

[0017]

BEST MODE FOR CARRYING OUT THE INVENTION Hereinafter, a transportation use estimation system and a transportation use estimation method according to the present invention will be described.
This will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. In the following, a railway will be described as an example of transportation.

FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram showing an example of the configuration of a transportation use estimation system. The transportation usage estimation system 10 includes a plurality of stations (in FIG. 1, station A,...).
A communication control unit 11 for receiving usage status information from the B station via the network 20 and an input for directly inputting usage status information from a plurality of stations (in FIG. 1, C station... D station); Unit 12, a usage data tally processing unit 13 that counts usage status information from the communication control unit 11 and the input unit 12, classifies and processes each item, and a usage data tally processing unit 13.
A data storage unit 14 for storing various information data processed in the above, and a use situation of transportation means is grasped from various information data stored in the data storage unit 14, and an effect of a measure, a business strategy and a business based on an event. And an output unit 16 such as a display device or a printing device for outputting an estimation result from the event effect estimation unit 15.

FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing a method of estimating the use state of a transportation system by the use state estimation system 10 of the present invention. Hereinafter, the process of estimating the use state of the transportation system according to the present invention will be described with reference to FIGS.

First, in the transportation use estimation system 10 of the present invention, as shown in FIG.
At station B, the number of passengers, the section of use of the user, the time of use, and the like are tabulated by an automatic ticket gate or a human hand, and the result is transmitted to the transportation use estimation system 10 via the network 20 by a tabulation system or the like. Can be. As described above, by using the automatic ticket gate, the trend of the passengers passing through the ticket gate can be automatically and in real time collected by station, time zone, use section, ticket type, and the like. Alternatively, data collected at each station, such as C station... D station, can be sent by mail or facsimile, and can be directly input from the input unit 12 of the transportation use estimation system 10 (step 201). .

The tally data is tally processed by the use data tally processing unit 13 for each item such as station, time zone, use section, ticket type and the like, and is stored and stored in the data storage unit 14 (step 202). ).

Based on the aggregated data stored in the data storage unit 14, the event effect estimating unit 15 executes an event around the station, conducts business planning such as advertising and sales of special discount tickets, revise fares, and changes train schedules. In response to various measures from the business side, such as a change in the pattern of train stops, it estimates how the usage trends of users have changed, and how much the effect has been. Further, the estimated value and the actual value are analyzed (step 203).

In this manner, the trends in the use trends of many stations and many transport sections stored in the data storage section 14 are analyzed, and the use trends of the target stations and transport sections to be determined are estimated. The result of analyzing the estimated value and the actual value is output to the output unit 16 including a display device such as a display or a printing device such as a printer (Step 20).
4).

As described above, according to the transportation use estimation system and the transportation use estimation method of the present invention, by utilizing the output result, it is possible to accurately and accurately determine the usage changed by the measure of the business operator. Can be grasped in real time. For this reason, it is possible to quantitatively and objectively understand the evaluation of measures and the effects of events without relying on the intuition of experienced or skilled personnel, etc., and to optimize measures and events and obtain the maximum effect be able to.

FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of a specific configuration of the event effect estimator 15 in the transportation use estimation system 10 of the present invention. In FIG. 3, the event effect estimating unit 15 has a tendency similar to the use situation of a station or a section to be estimated from the aggregated data stored in the data storage unit 14 (hereinafter, also simply referred to as “target group”). A similar group extracting unit 31 and a similar group extracting unit 3 that determine a certain station or section (hereinafter, also simply referred to as a “similar group”) and extract total data of the similar group.
Formulating the relationship between the aggregate data of the similar group determined in 1 and the aggregate data of the target group into a formula to create a model formula,
A model formula estimating unit 32 for calculating an estimated actual value from the model formula; a use actual result collecting unit 33 for collecting total data of actual use actual results of the target group (hereinafter, also simply referred to as “actual actual value”); A performance value comparison unit 34 that compares the estimated performance value calculated by the formula estimation unit 32 with the usage performance value collected by the usage performance collection unit 33; And an event effect calculation determination unit 35 that calculates the effect of a measure or an event in the surveyed transport section, determines the calculation result, and visually outputs the result to the output unit 16.

FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing the specific processing contents of step 203 described in FIG. Less than,
The event effect estimation processing shown in step 203 in FIG. 2 will be described with reference to FIGS.

First, the similar group extracting unit 31 compares the collected data of the target group stored in the data storage unit 13 with the collected data of another station, a transportation section, or the like, and determines the degree of similarity with the target group. Is determined (step 401). Then, a station or a transportation section having a high degree of similarity and correlation with the target group is selected and determined as a similar group (step 402).

Next, each collected data of the similar group is compared with the total data of the target group, an explanatory variable of the correlation equation (model) is determined, and a model equation is created (step 403). For example, when the station of the target group is determined to be the station A, the transportation section is the station A to the station C, the station of the similar group is determined to be the station B, and the transportation section is determined to be the station B to the station D in step 402, The correlation between the number of passengers MA at station A and the number of passengers MB at station B is simply proportional, and its explanatory variable α
Is determined to be 0.6 (that is, in the usual case, the number MA of the passengers at the station A is 60% of the number MB of the passengers at the station B). .

<Equation 1> MA = α × MB = 0.6 × MB

In addition, the number of passengers N at the transportation sections A to C is N
The correlation between the AC and the number of passengers NBD at the transportation sections B to D is simply proportional, and the explanatory variable β is 0.9 (that is,
In the normal case, when the number of passengers NAC at the transportation sections A to C is determined as 90% of the number of passengers NBD at the transportation sections B to D, the model formula is represented by the following formula 2. be able to.

<Equation 2> MA = β × MB = 0.9 × MB

In the above description, the model equation of simple proportionality is shown, but the generation of the model equation in step 403 is as follows.
It can be obtained by a statistical multivariate analysis method or the like.

Next, the model formula estimating section 32 collects data (M
B, MBD) and the estimated values (MA, MAC) of the target group are calculated using the above equations 1 and 2 (step 4).
04). The estimated values (MA, MAC) are the estimated number of passengers MA at station A and the estimated number of passengers MAC at stations A to C in the transportation section when there is no event.

On the other hand, the use result estimating unit 33 calculates the actual collected data (the actual number of passengers RA at the station A, the actual number of passengers RAC at the stations A to C in the transportation section) during the period when the event or the like occurred. Are collected from the data storage unit 14 (step 405).

Next, the actual value comparison unit 34 calculates the estimated number of passengers MA of the station A calculated by the model formula estimating unit 32 and the estimated number of passengers MAC of the transportation section A to C stations (estimated value without event). And the actual number of passengers RA at station A and transport section A
The actual number of users RAC from the station to the station C is compared with the actual number RAC (actual value with event) (step 406).

The event effect calculation / judgment unit 35 calculates the event effect based on the result of comparison by the actual value comparison unit 34, processes it into a graph or the like, and outputs it to the output unit 16 (step 407).

FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of a graph showing the event effect output to the output unit 16. As shown in FIG. As shown in FIG. 5, the effect of an event or the like can be visually shown, so that the effect of the measure, the sales strategy, the merits of the business by the event, and the like can be correctly evaluated.

As described above, the railway use state estimation system and the transportation use state estimation method of the present invention have been described by way of example of a railway.
The present invention can be applied to aircraft, toll roads, and the like.

[0039]

As described above, according to the transportation use estimation system and the transportation use estimation method of the present invention, an estimated value when there is no event or the like from a similar group is calculated, and the estimated value and the event are calculated. The actual performance values at the time of the occurrence were compared, so that the use of transportation could be grasped on a large-scale, real-time, and accurate basis, and the effects of the measures, the business strategies, and the merits of the business operators due to events Can now be evaluated correctly.

[Brief description of the drawings]

FIG. 1 is a schematic view showing an embodiment of a transportation use estimation system according to the present invention.

FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing a process of a method of estimating a transportation use state according to the present invention;

FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating a configuration of an event effect estimating unit of the transportation use estimation system according to the present invention;

FIG. 4 is a flowchart illustrating a process of an event effect estimation unit.

FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating an example of a graph indicating an event effect output to an output unit.

[Explanation of symbols]

 DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 10 Transportation use estimation system 11 Communication control unit 12 Input unit 13 Usage data totalization processing unit 14 Data storage unit 15 Event effect estimation unit 16 Output unit 31 Similar group extraction unit 32 Model expression estimation unit 33 Usage result collection unit 34 Actual value Comparison unit 35 Event effect calculation determination unit

──────────────────────────────────────────────────続 き Continued on the front page (51) Int.Cl. ⁷ Identification symbol FI Theme coat ゛ (Reference) G08G 1/01 G08G 1/01 A

Claims (13)

[Claims] 1. A transportation use estimation system for estimating the use of transportation such as a railway, a ship, an aircraft, and a toll road of an automobile, a storage means for storing transportation use information, and the storage means. Event effect estimating means for grasping the use state of the transportation means from the use state information of the transportation means accumulated in the means, and evaluating the effect of the measure, the business strategy, and the merits of the business by the event, etc. A transportation use estimation system characterized by the following. 2. The transportation use estimation system according to claim 1, further comprising information receiving means for receiving the transportation use information. 3. The transportation use estimation system according to claim 2, wherein the information receiving means receives the use information of the transportation via a network. 4. The transportation means usage status according to claim 1, further comprising an information totalizing means for classifying the usage information of the transportation means for each item and storing the information in the storage means. Estimation system. 5. The transportation means estimation system according to claim 1, further comprising output means for outputting an evaluation result from said event effect estimation means. 6. The event effect estimating unit determines a similar group having usage status information that tends to be similar to the usage status information of the target group from the usage status information of the transportation means stored in the storage unit. And a similarity group extracting means for extracting the usage state information of the similar group; a relation between the usage state information of the similar group determined by the similar group extraction means and the usage state information of the target group is expressed by a mathematical formula. Model formula estimating means for generating an estimated value from the model formula, and collecting actual use status information (hereinafter, also simply referred to as "actual value") of the target group. Means, a performance value comparison for comparing the estimated value calculated by the model formula estimating means with the performance value collected by the use performance collecting means. Transportation usage estimation system of claims 1 to 5, wherein further comprising a stage, a. 7. The event effect estimating means,
The transportation use estimation method according to claim 6, further comprising an event effect calculation determination unit that calculates an effect of the event of the target group from a comparison result of the actual value comparison unit and determines the calculation result. system. 8. A method for estimating a use state of a transportation system such as a railway, a ship, an airplane, or a toll road of an automobile, the method comprising: estimating the use state information of a transportation system; Based on the information on the use of transportation, the use of the transportation is grasped, and based on the grasped use of the transportation, the effect of the measure, the business strategy, and the merits of the business by the event are evaluated. Transportation use estimation method. 9. The method according to claim 8, wherein the use information of the transportation means is received via a network. 10. The method of estimating the use state of a transportation system according to claim 8, wherein the use state information of the transportation means is classified and stored for each item. 11. The method according to claim 8, further comprising the step of outputting a result of the evaluation. 12. The step of ascertaining the usage status includes: determining a similar group having usage status information that tends to be similar to the usage status information of the target group from the accumulated usage status information of the transportation means; Extracting the usage status information of the similar group, formulating a relationship between the determined usage status information of the similar group and the usage status information of the target group, creating a model formula, and estimating from the model formula Calculate the value, and the actual usage status information (actual value) of the target group
12. The transportation use estimation method according to claim 8, further comprising: collecting the estimated values and comparing the calculated estimated values with the collected actual values. 13. The step of evaluating the merit or the like includes calculating an effect of the event of the target group from a comparison result between the estimated value and the actual value in the step of grasping the use state, and calculating the calculated effect. The method according to claim 12, wherein the result is determined.