JP2000306015A - Device and method for managing rental article - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To hold respective rental articles at proper stock levels respectively by providing a future stock scheduled quantity arithmetic means and an excessive/deficient quantity arithmetic means which calculates the excessive/deficient quantity of article stock in future. SOLUTION: A future stock total quantity arithmetic means 112 finds the future stock total predicted value N of a rental article warehouse from a rental total number No found by a rental total number arithmetic part 111, a return expected quantity found by a return expected quantity arithmetic part 110, a rental expected quantity found by a rental expected quantity arithmetic part 109, and a correction quantity H that a correction quantity database 105 holds. The future stock total number predicted value N of the rental article warehouse is found. The arithmetic result is stored in a stock prediction database 106. A correction quantity arithmetic part 113 calculates a correction quantity H by using a future rental stock number lower- limit value β from the database 101 and stock N prediction information from a stock prediction database 106. This correction quantity H is held in a correction quantity database 105. Then an ordering process part 115 obtains information on the correction quantity H from the correction quantity database 105 and orders articles from a brand-new warehouse.

Description

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a rental product management apparatus and a rental product management method for maintaining a rental product inventory optimally in accordance with a rental situation.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art In a product rental industry, a system is used in which a handled product is rented from a warehouse to a borrower, and then a product that has passed a predetermined period for each product is returned from the borrower. When a rental system is adopted, from the viewpoint of efficient sales, it is important to manage the optimal inventory so that there is no shortage of merchandise in the warehouse and the amount of inventory held can be reduced.

Generally, in the warehouse management in such a commodity rental industry, a safety stock is set, and new stock is purchased when the stock becomes smaller than the safety stock. Warehouses tend to have a large number of safety stocks to prevent product shortages, which is presumed to have more stock than necessary.

[0004]

As described above, in the conventional management method, the quantity of shipment and collection is grasped in the warehouse, but the collection rate from the customer is not stable, and therefore, the future supply and demand forecast Because it is difficult to do so, there is a strong tendency to have extra inventory in order to make it possible to respond to unexpected orders from customers in terms of service, and to avoid only being unable to ship.

However, in terms of business, considering profitability,
Products need to be kept to a minimum and yet be able to meet customer needs to the fullest.

[0006] That is, how to maintain the appropriate stock level for each product determines the success or failure of the rental business.

Therefore, the object of the present invention is to:
An object of the present invention is to provide a rental product management device and a rental product management method capable of coping with lending and return movements and changes in demand for each rental product and maintaining each of them at an appropriate stock level.

[0008]

In order to achieve the above object, the present invention is configured as follows.

[0009] That is, means 102 for providing reservation information for product lending, lending result information holding means 103 for holding lending result information, return result information holding means 104 for holding return result information, and daily Scheduled lending amount calculating means 109 for calculating the expected lending amount, scheduled lending amount prediction calculating means 111 for estimating the daily lending amount in the period in which a reservation is made from past lending and returning results, Planned return amount calculating means 110 for calculating the expected return amount of the vehicle, and future inventory planned amount calculating means for calculating the future planned inventory amount from the determined expected lending amount, the expected return amount, and the excess or deficiency of the product inventory in the future 112, the expected inventory amount and the given shortage occurrence frequency, the future inventory of the product within the allowable range of the shortage occurrence frequency. The calculating means 113 for calculating the quantity, the order processing means 115 for obtaining and instructing the purchase quantity and the purchase time of the insufficient product when the shortage of the product is predicted from the excess or deficiency, and the calculation means 113 Excess merchandise inventory calculating means 114 for obtaining an excess of the inventory quantity based on the excess or deficiency quantity, and a movement processing means 116 for instructing to carry out the excess when the excess inventory quantity is obtained.
Is provided.

In this system having such a configuration, the rental result information holding means 103 holds the rental result information, and the return result information holding means 104 holds the return result information. Is given by means 102 for giving reservation information. Expected lending amount calculation means 1
In step 09, the daily scheduled lending amount is calculated from the reservation result, and the scheduled lending amount prediction calculating means 111 has a reservation based on the past lending result based on the lending result information and the past return result based on the return result information. Estimate the daily lending volume during the period. Then, the expected return amount calculating means 110 calculates a daily expected return amount from the lending reservation information and the past lending results, and the future inventory planned amount calculating means 112 calculates the expected expected lending amount and the expected return amount. The calculation unit 113 obtains the estimated future inventory amount, and calculates the excess inventory amount in the future within the allowable range of the shortage frequency based on the calculated expected inventory amount and the given shortage occurrence frequency. Calculate the shortfall. When the shortage of the product is predicted from the obtained excess or deficiency, the order processing means 115 obtains and instructs the purchase amount and purchase time of the insufficient product. The product inventory excess calculating means 114 calculates an excess of the product inventory based on the excess or deficiency obtained by the calculating means 113, and when an excessive product inventory is calculated, the movement processing means 116 Indicate how much to leave the warehouse.

In this way, based on the past performance information and the current reservation information, the excess or deficiency of the stock of the commodity in the future is calculated within the range of the given shortage occurrence frequency, and the excess or deficiency is expected. If this is the case, the product inventory is adjusted for the expected excess or deficiency, so that the optimal inventory can always be maintained as long as the out-of-stock occurrence frequency is allowed.

In the present invention, for example, it is assumed that inventory management is performed in a rental goods warehouse where goods are lent to a customer and returned to the system as shown in FIG. The management objectives are to eliminate the shortage of goods in the warehouse and to reduce inventory in the warehouse.
The returned merchandise is once carried into a remanufacturing factory, where it is subjected to a remanufacturing process to regenerate a rentable product. The new warehouse is a warehouse for stocking new products, and it is assumed that there is one new warehouse for a plurality of rental goods warehouses that store rentable products.

A nationwide warehouse is a warehouse for storing surplus inventory, and one is allocated to a plurality of rental warehouses. Nationwide warehouses are used to reduce inventory at each rental warehouse, but they also aim to coordinate inventory between rental warehouses connected to the national warehouse. Each of the rental goods warehouses has a plurality of customers, and the rental goods reservation, rental, and return processing are performed for each customer. The lending period is determined in advance, and lending and returning are performed in a certain time unit.

In such a case, the present system calculates the excess or deficiency of the product inventory in the future based on the past performance information and the current reservation information within a range that allows the given occurrence frequency of stockouts. If excess or deficiency is expected, the product inventory is adjusted for the expected excess or deficiency, so that the optimal inventory can always be maintained as long as the shortage occurrence frequency is allowed.

[0015]

BEST MODE FOR CARRYING OUT THE INVENTION Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described.
This will be described with reference to the drawings. First, an example of the structure of the product rental business to which the present invention is applied will be described.

A warehouse for storing and managing rental goods (hereinafter referred to as rental goods warehouse) 1, a recycling station (recycling factory) 2 for rental goods recycling processing, a nationwide warehouse 3, and a new warehouse 4 in FIG. Such a system is assumed. The management objectives of the system of the present invention are to eliminate the shortage of rental goods in the warehouse 1 and to reduce the inventory in the warehouse 1.

A rental product returned from a customer to a product rental company is once carried into a recycling factory 2 where it is subjected to a recycling process to be lent to a rentable product. become.

The rental goods warehouse 1 is a sales office, and if there are a plurality of sales bases, they exist for each sales base, and there are a plurality of sales bases nationwide. The new warehouse 4 is a warehouse for stocking new products. It is assumed that there is one new warehouse 4 for a plurality of rental goods warehouses 1 that store rentable products.

The nationwide warehouse 3 is a warehouse for storing surplus inventory, and one is allocated to a plurality of rental goods warehouses 1.
The nationwide warehouse 3 is used to reduce inventory at each rental item warehouse 1, but also aims to adjust inventory between the rental item warehouses 1 connected to the nationwide warehouse 3.
The rental goods warehouse 1 has a plurality of customers A, B, and C, respectively.
..., and the processing of reservation, rental, and return of rental goods is performed for each customer. The lending period is determined in advance, and lending and returning are performed in a certain time unit.

In the commodity rental business, inventory management in the case where rental goods are returned for a predetermined period as described above will be described as a first embodiment.

(Embodiment 1) Now, assuming that the time unit of "rent" and "return" of a rental product is "one day", a method of estimating a shortage quantity, replenishing a new product, and calculating a movement amount from an excess inventory is described. explain. FIG. 8 shows a processing flow, and FIG. 7 shows a block diagram of a system configuration from a functional aspect.

FIG. 2 shows the transition of the total number of rental goods rented to customers A to C in FIG. 1 (FIG. 2A), and the transition of the total number of returned goods from customers A to C ( FIG.
The example of (b) is shown by a graph.

Here, the lending period “Tw” is set to “14 days”.
Therefore, the rental item lent out “-9 days” (9 days ago) from today is returned on “5 days” (5 days later).

Now, assuming that “0 day” is the present, the past (−1)
Before the date), the rental and rental values and return values are the actual values. In addition, the future (after 1 day)
For, rental goods rental and return values are expected values.

[0025] A period in which an order for lending exhibition from a certain customer is included in a start date of "0 day (today)" is "To". In this graph, for example, To = 7 days. Now, let us assume that the transition of the lending schedule during a period “To” in which a loan order is placed from a certain customer is as shown in FIG. 3A, for example.

Further, the period (future period) at the time when the lending period “Tw” of the lending exhibition to a certain customer who issued the order has elapsed from “0 day (today)” as the starting date is “T
R. This “TR” is a period during which a collection schedule for past loan results is obtained.

Further, “0 day (today)” is set to “T
R is added to the “To” period after the “R” period has elapsed.
S. This “TS” is a period in which a scheduled return period is scheduled for the ordered lending schedule, and in FIG. 3 (a), the return schedule in this case is “To”. It is assumed that the transition is, for example, as shown in FIG.

Rental goods warehouse 1 for "To" period
Calculate inventory at. Determine the variables as follows: The total number of rentals in the rental goods warehouse 1 after one day, two days, and three days is “O1”, “O2”, and “O3”. Similarly, rental goods warehouse 1 after 1 day, 2 days, and 3 days
"I1", "I2", "I"
Similarly, the total number of stocks in the rental goods warehouse 1 after the end of the business after one day, two days, and three days is “N”.
1 "," N2 ", and" N3 ".

Also, assuming that the time required to regenerate the returned rental goods at the remanufacturing station 2 is "Tk", the total number of stocks in the rental goods warehouse 1 at the end of the business i days after today is "Ni Is calculated by the following equation.

Ni = (Ni−1) −Oi + I (I−Tk) (Equation 1) where (Ni−1) is the inventory of the previous day.

As a result, in the case shown in FIGS. 3A and 3B, the inventory amount in the warehouse 1 at the end of the business is rented out for the next business day, and the inventory amount is reduced.
In order to become (b), the inventory transition is traced as shown in FIG.

FIG. 4A shows the transition of the total number of rentals “Oi” scheduled in the rental goods warehouse 1 and the rental goods warehouse 1.
And the transition of the total number of returned rental items “Ii” at the same time, and an example of the transition of the total number of stock “Ni” in the rental item warehouse 1 at the end of daily work. If there is a return that meets the order and the returned product can be operated so that it is at a point in time before the predetermined regeneration period, it will be possible to operate efficiently by minimizing the inventory to meet the demand. However, due to fluctuations in demand, it is necessary to introduce new products during the period when demand is expanding.

The introduction of new products, that is, the accumulation of inventory, must be dealt with in advance in accordance with the peak of demand. This will be described below with reference to FIGS.

Now, the transition schedule of the stock “N” is shown in FIG.
(A)) (provided that this is the “To” period in which the order is placed), the rental goods warehouse 1
Is managed so that the lower limit value β of the unrented stock number in the above does not become “0” even at the time of maximum demand. That is, the lower limit value β of the unrented inventory number may be an appropriate numerical value equal to or more than “0”, but it is preferable that the lower limit value β be closer to “0” in order not to have excessive inventory. However, if the value is completely set to “0”, there will be times when orders cannot be accepted, which is a serious problem in terms of customer service.

Therefore, it is important how β is set. Now, if it is predicted from the order situation that the inventory situation will be less than the value of the unrented inventory quantity lower limit value β after 5 days (N2 <β) (out of stock when β = 0),
The new warehouse 2 shown in FIG.
Arrange to bring more new products into the rental goods warehouse 1. Assuming that the time for moving from the new warehouse 4 to the rental warehouse 1 is "TM", and in this example, three days later, the date of ordering to the new warehouse 4 is two days from today in order to prevent shortage.

As a result, in the rental goods warehouse 1 after 5 days, the number H of goods corresponding to the order is carried in from the new warehouse 4 (FIG. 5B), and the stock number N is as shown in FIG. As shown in (c), it is possible to prevent the stock at the time point after five days from falling below the lower limit value β of the unrented stock quantity.

Therefore, two days after today, the quantity of N5-β is defined as a correction amount H (here, it is represented as H5 in the sense of the correction amount of stock in the rental warehouse 1 five days later), By arranging the quantity in the new warehouse 4, it is possible to keep up with the rapid increase in demand without having excess inventory,
Maintain customer service.

In the case of the above example, the amount of stock correction H5 in the rental goods warehouse 1 after 5 days is added, and the value of N5 + H5 becomes the corrected N5 (= β). ) And N7 (corrected β after 7 days) are changed by the above (Equation 1).

Thus, from the relationship between demand and inventory,
The value of the unrented inventory number lower limit value β is optimally predicted, and β is dynamically calculated so as to be an optimum lower limit value according to demand, and can be used for inventory adjustment.

In order to increase the stock, there is a carry-in from a new warehouse 4. Of course, if there is a stock in the nationwide warehouse 3, it may be carried in.

By the way, if the rental goods return exceeds the rental demand, it leads to excess inventory. Therefore, in such a situation, it is necessary to move excess inventory to the nationwide warehouse 3 (reduction of inventory). Next, how to adjust the amount will be described.

The calculation of the amount of reduction of excess inventory means that, in this case, the amount of movement G of excess inventory to the nationwide warehouse 3 is calculated.

This is obtained by changing the lower limit value β of the unrented inventory from the actual (past) and predicted (future) transition of the inventory transition in the rental goods warehouse 1. Here, it is assumed that the cycle of changing β is every Tβ.

The allowable stockout frequency (%) (= allowable stockout count) within the period Tβ of the β change cycle is determined in advance, and a representative point is selected.

That is, FIG. 6A shows a rental goods warehouse 1.
"N" indicates an example of a change in the amount of lending in "1", and "H" indicates an example of a change in the amount of a new stock replenished. From the actual (past) and predicted (future) trends in the amount of lending and inventory replenishment,
The new value of β is changed every period Tβ of the β change cycle.

FIG. 6A shows an observation period and a Tpast period for obtaining an actual value, and a period Tfuture (a target period for predicting a future product transition in the rental goods warehouse 1) after which a predicted value is obtained. It shows the transition of. Β is “10”. In FIG. 6A, the period of Tpast + Tfuture is the period Tβ of the β change cycle, and this period is from −m days to n days.

The change in the amount of lending in the rental goods warehouse 1 is "-
On the "m" day, the "-K" day and the "l" day, the stock replenishment amount is lower than the other days, and the stock replenishment amount at this time exceeds the lending amount on the "-K" day, but is zero on the "l" day. Yes, others are "1
The day before the “l” day is the “j” day, and
It is assumed that the next day of the “l” day is the “n” day.

The value of β is changed with reference to the transition of the actual (past) and predicted (future) values of the lending amount and the replenishing amount as shown in FIG. 6 (a).

FIG. 6B shows the transition of the stock quantity "NN" from the total stock "N" in the rental goods warehouse 1, excluding the quantity "H" newly refilled during the Tpast period and the Tfuture period. It is an example.

On the "-K" day, the replenishment amount "H" is "20", while the total number of stock "N" is "10".
“NN” is “−20”, which is a shortage of 20.
On the “j” day, the total number of stocks is “20”, the replenishment amount “H” is “0”, and “NN” is “−−10”, which is a shortage of 10. On the “l” day, the total number of stocks is “10”, while the replenishment amount “H” is “0”,
“NN” is “−30”, which is short of 30. On other days, the total number of stocks N is equal to β = 10,
“NN” is at least “0”, and there is no excess or deficiency.

At the stage when such a transition is grasped, "NN"
Is selected to make β appropriate.

For example, if the number of missing items is 0,
Select "NNl" for the point of "l" day. This is because the shortage of stock on this day is “−30” and the period T of the β change cycle
This is because it is the day showing the largest shortage in β, and if the state on this day can be avoided, there will be no out-of-stock.

Therefore, if the occurrence of shortage is assumed to be zero,
Select "NNl" for the point of "l" day. Then, from day 0, for m days up to m days in the past and for n days up to n days in the future,
And, in addition to today, the out-of-stock occurrence frequency is 0 /
m + n + 1 (%), that is, 0 (%).

If the allowable number of out-of-stock occurrences is set to one, "NN-K" at the point of "-K" is selected. And
In addition to m days up to m days in the past from day 0 and n days up to n days in the future, and today, the out-of-stock occurrence frequency can be expressed as 1 / m + n + 1 (%) in this case. it can.

If the allowable number of missing parts is set to two, "NNj" at the point "j" is selected. Then, from day 0, the past m days up to m days and the future n days up to n days, and today, the shortage occurrence frequency is
2 / m + n + 1 (%).

When the frequency of occurrence of shortage is determined, the moving amount "G" is obtained next.

[0057] Here, “NN” is the stock amount at the observation point determined by the frequency of stockouts, and iHi represents the total number of products put into the warehouse between Tpast and Tfuture.

The movement amount G obtained by (Equation 2) is represented by (n +
1) Move to the national warehouse 3 as soon as possible after the date.

That is, inventory fluctuations due to inventory fluctuations and demand fluctuations are grasped from actual measurement values and demand trends in the near future in a predetermined period unit, and the frequency of stockouts is determined to predict surplus inventory. Then, when the predetermined period elapses, the determined surplus inventory is moved to the nationwide warehouse and the inventory of the rental item warehouse 1 is adjusted, so that the inventory can be kept from being placed in the rental item warehouse 1. Be able to manage.

FIG. 7 shows a system configuration for performing such processing, and FIG. 8 is a flowchart showing the operation.

In FIG. 7, reference numeral 101 denotes a database of a lower limit value β of unrented inventory, reference numeral 102 denotes an order database holding order information of rental items, reference numeral 103 denotes a lending record database holding information of lending records, and reference numeral 104 denotes a return. Return record database that retains record information, 105
Is a correction amount database holding information on the correction amount “H”;
Reference numeral 106 denotes a stock forecast database that holds stock “N” forecast information, 107 denotes a stock actual database that holds stock actual information, and 108 denotes a moving amount database that holds information of the moving amount “G”.

Reference numeral 109 denotes the order database 102
Is a scheduled lending amount calculation unit that calculates a scheduled lending amount during the period of “To” using the information of the order database 102 and the lending record database 103.
Is the expected return amount calculation unit that calculates the expected return amount within the period of TR and TS using the information of.

Reference numeral 111 denotes a loan performance database 1
Total lending calculation unit 112 for obtaining the total lending “No” in the rental warehouse 1 at the end of the operation using the information 03, the information on the return result database 104, and the information on the stock results held in the stock results database 107, 112 Is the total number of lending “No” obtained by the total lending amount calculation unit 111, the expected return amount calculated by the expected return amount calculation unit 110, and the expected lending amount calculation unit 1
09 and the information of the correction amount “H” held in the correction amount database 105 obtained from the rental amount warehouse 1.
Is a future stock total calculation unit for obtaining the future stock total predicted value “Ni”. The calculation result of the future stock total calculation unit 112 is stored in the stock prediction database 106.

Reference numeral 113 denotes a correction amount calculation for calculating a correction amount “H” using β from the database 101 of the unrented inventory lower limit value β and the inventory “N” prediction information from the inventory prediction database 106. The correction amount database 105 holds the correction amount “H” obtained by the correction amount calculation unit 113.

Reference numeral 114 denotes a movement amount calculation unit, which is the data of the unrented inventory number lower limit β from the database of the unrented inventory lower limit value β and the correction amount database 105.
Of the correction amount “H” from the stock prediction database 1
Using the inventory “N” forecast information from 2006 and the inventory actual information from the inventory actual database 107, the excess inventory in the rental warehouse 1 is calculated from the demand and the inventory status, and the calculated inventory is sent to the nationwide warehouse 3. This is a calculation unit for calculating the amount of movement.
The information of the movement amount “G” obtained by the movement amount calculation unit 114 is stored in the movement amount database 108.

Reference numeral 115 denotes an order processing unit, which obtains information on the correction amount “H” from the correction amount database 105 and orders goods to the new warehouse 4. Reference numeral 116 denotes a movement processing unit. This is for instructing (or displaying) the movement of the excess stock to the nationwide warehouse 3 in accordance with the data held in the movement amount database 108.

In this system having such a configuration, the operator operates the operation terminal to operate the operation terminal, and the lower limit value β of the unrented inventory, the period from today to the start date, the period “To” during which the order for lending from a certain customer is included. , The lending period “Tw” of lending to the customer who issued the order, the period “Tpast” for obtaining the actual value of the product transition in the rental product warehouse 1, the target for predicting the future product transition in the rental product warehouse 1 Initially, information such as a period “Tfuture”, a time “TM” for moving from the new warehouse 4 to the rental warehouse 1, a change cycle β of “β”, and a frequency of occurrence of shortage are set. Of course, if any of these elements need to be changed, or need to be changed, including new additions or cancellations,
At that point, information contents can be added, changed, deleted, and the like. In the initial stage, the number of stocked rental items and the like are also set. In addition, it is assumed that the order information of the rental item is sequentially input when an order from a customer is received, and that information such as actual lending and return is sequentially input when it actually occurs.

When such information is input, the information of the lower limit of unrented inventory number “β” of the input information is stored in the database 101 of the lower limit of unrented inventory number “β”, and Product order information is in the order database 10
Second, the information on the loan performance is stored in the loan performance database 103.
, Return information is returned to the return record database 104,
Each is entered and held.

On the other hand, the scheduled lending amount calculation unit 109 calculates the scheduled lending amount during the period “To” using the information in the order database 102, and calculates the expected return amount calculation unit 11.
0 calculates the expected return amount within the period of TR and TS using the information of the order database 102 and the information of the loan performance database 103.

Further, the total lending operation unit 111 stores the information of the lending record database 103 and the return record database 10.
Using the information of No. 4 and the information of the actual stock held in the stock actual database 107, the total number of rentals “No” in the rental goods warehouse 1 at the end of the work is obtained. Then, the obtained information of the total number of lending “No” is given to the future total number calculating unit 112 and the actual stock database 107. As a result, the obtained latest lending total number “No” is stored in the stock record database 107.

On the other hand, the future inventory total number calculation unit 112
Is the total number of lending “No” obtained by the total lending operation unit 111, the expected return amount obtained by the expected return amount operation unit 110, the expected lending amount obtained by the expected lending amount operation unit 109, and the correction held in the correction amount database 105. From the information of the quantity “H”, a future stock total predicted value “Ni” in the rental goods warehouse 1 is obtained.

The calculation result of the future stock total calculation unit 112 is stored in the stock prediction database 106.

On the other hand, the correction amount calculation unit 113 corrects using the unrented inventory number lower limit value “β” from the unlented inventory number lower limit database 101 and the inventory “N” prediction information from the inventory prediction database 106. Calculate the quantity "H". Then, the correction amount “H” obtained by the correction amount calculation unit 113 is held in the correction amount database 105.

Further, the movement amount calculation unit 114 calculates the unrented inventory number lower limit value β from the unrented inventory number lower limit database 101, the correction amount “H” information from the correction amount database 105, and the inventory prediction. Using the inventory “N” forecast information from the database 106 and the inventory actual information from the inventory actual database 107, the excess inventory in the rental warehouse 1 is calculated from the demand and the inventory status, and the calculated excess inventory is stored in the nationwide warehouse 3. Calculated as the amount of movement to The information of the movement amount “G” obtained by the movement amount calculation unit 114 is stored in the movement amount database 108.

Then, the order processing section 115 obtains the information of the correction amount “H” from the correction amount database 105 and places an order for a product to the new warehouse 4. Thereby, even if the demand increases rapidly, it is possible to always operate the business with the appropriate stock.

On the other hand, if there is an excess stock according to the data held in the movement amount database 108, the movement processing unit 116 instructs the movement of the excess stock to the nationwide warehouse 3.
When this instruction is given, the rental item manager arranges to move the indicated amount of excess inventory to the nationwide warehouse 3 so that even if demand decreases, excess inventory does not occur. We can always operate our business with proper stock.

An actual operation example will be described with reference to the flowchart of FIG. In this system having such a configuration, the operator operates the operation terminal to operate the operation terminal, and the lower limit value β of the unrented inventory, the period “To” in which the order of lending is entered from a certain customer on the starting date, and the order Lending period “Tw” for lending to the customer who issued “Tpast”, period “Tpast” for obtaining the actual value of the goods transition in the rental goods warehouse 1, and the target period “Tfutur” for predicting the future goods movement in the rental goods warehouse
Information such as “e”, time “TM” for moving from the new warehouse 4 to the rental warehouse 1, a cycle “Tβ” for changing β, and the frequency of missing parts are initialized (step S in FIG. 8).
1). Of course, if any of these elements needs to be changed or needs to be changed, including new additions or cancellations, the information content is added, changed, or deleted at that time. be able to. In the initial stage, the number of stocked rental items and the like are also set. In addition, it is assumed that the order information of the rental item is sequentially input when an order from a customer is received, and that information such as actual lending and return is sequentially input when it actually occurs.

When the period of Tβ has elapsed, the movement amount “G” is calculated (steps S2 and S3 in FIG. 8). Then, the process proceeds to step S4. If the period of Tβ has not elapsed, the process proceeds to step S4.

In step S4, it is checked whether or not the movement is scheduled. If the movement is scheduled, G is moved to the nationwide warehouse (step S4 in FIG. 8).
S5). Then, the process proceeds to step S6.

If the result of the check in step S4 is that no movement is planned, the operation moves to step S6.
Calculate the scheduled lending number during the “To” period. Then, the expected number of returns in the “TR + TS” period is calculated (step S).
7), "To" period repetition (step S8), "N"
i ”and“ Hi ”(step S in FIG. 8).
9, S10).

Then, it is checked whether "Hi: 0" is smaller than "0" (step S11 in FIG. 8).
If "i: 0" is smaller than "0", "To" is repeated (step S12 in FIG. 8), the day is counted up, and the process returns to step S2 (step S1 in FIG. 8).
3).

On the other hand, as a result of the check in step S11 in FIG. 8, if “Hi: 0” is not smaller than “0”, “(i-day−TM): 0” is equal to “0” or becomes larger than “0”. It is checked whether or not it is smaller (step S14 in FIG. 8). If “(i day−TM): 0” is equal to or smaller than “0”, “Hi” new products are ordered. The process moves to step S15.

As a result of the check in step S14,
If “(i-day−TM): 0” is greater than “0”, the process proceeds to step S15, calculates the corrected “N”, and proceeds to step S12.

As a result of such processing, in the commodity rental business, inventory management in the case where rental goods are returned for a predetermined period as promised can be carried out without placing excess inventory, and furthermore, from the customer. The present invention can be carried out without inviting a shortage of merchandise that cannot fulfill an order.

As described above in detail, according to this embodiment, inventory fluctuations and inventory excess / deficiency due to demand fluctuations are grasped from actual measurement values and demand trends in the near future in a predetermined period unit, and the frequency of stockouts is determined. By deciding the number of surplus stocks and estimating the surplus stocks, and moving the determined surplus stocks to a nationwide warehouse at the elapse of the predetermined period and adjusting the inventory of the rental goods warehouse 1, the product rental business In the case where there is a rental item return for a fixed period as promised in
Inventory management so that excessive inventory is not required.

Next, a description will be given of a second embodiment of the present invention in which inventory management taking into account fluctuations in lending is performed.

(Example 2) Lending reservation and lending quantity (actual)
A description will be given of an example in which an error from a reservation to an actual result is considered in comparison.

<Scheduled Amount Calculation Distributed Value Application Type> Embodiment 1
In, the future lending quantity is planned from the lending reservation of the product, the future return quantity is planned based on the actual lending of the product, and the future stock quantity is planned based on the planned lending quantity, the expected return quantity, and the current stock quantity. If a shortage of products is predicted from the planned inventory, a mechanism to estimate the shortage of the product and replenish new products in advance, the results of past changes in inventory, and the estimated planned inventory Calculate the appropriate amount of inventory based on the above, and adjust the system so that the excess inventory is moved to another warehouse, so that if the rental goods are returned in the fixed period as promised in the product rental business Although it is possible to manage inventory so as not to put excessive inventory in the rental goods warehouse 1, the function of "planning future lending quantity from lending reservation of goods"
By giving a range of the expected lending quantity error based on the error between the expected lending and the actual lending, the occurrence of product shortage based on the expected inventory quantity error can be represented by the probability. By reflecting this in the planned inventory quantity, it is possible to prevent shortage of inventory due to the influence of the error.

An example will be described. In order to obtain the expected stock quantity error, the variance is calculated by taking the error rate of the actual value of the loan and the scheduled value between “To”. The variance is obtained every i days after the observation date, and the calculation is performed for the past observation date.

For example, FIG. 9A shows an example when observation is made from the first day, FIG. 9B shows an example when observation is made from the second day, and FIG. This is an example in the case of observation from the day, and the original expected number of returns and the actual number are shown in a graph.

The error rate on the observation day after i day and after j days is defined as “E _ij ”. Thus, the variance “σj ² ” of the error rate every j days can be expressed by the following equation. However, if the error rate is infinite, the observation point is discarded.

[0092] Also, if the observation point has any periodicity,
It is determined in that cycle.

For example, if there is a periodicity on a weekly basis,
Then, “σj^Two(O _2j1And fire)
"Σj^Two(Σ_2j ^Two")
It is.

The “σ _2ij ” obtained in this way is
The following formula shows an error range expected to be added to the scheduled value of the period “To” (FIG. 10 shows an example of an error range expected to be added to the expected value of the period “To”).

[0095] Here, n is the number of observation points for which σ ² was obtained.

The relationship of (Equation 4) is regarded as an error with the scheduled lending amount (“Oj”) during the “To” period, and the stock amount “N”, the stock correction amount “H”, and the transfer amount to the nationwide warehouse “G” "To reflect.

As described above, the function of “planning the future lending quantity from the lending reservation of a product” in the first embodiment has a margin of error in the expected lending quantity based on the error between the lending schedule and the actual lending result. By doing so, it is possible to correct the numerical value expressed by the probability of the occurrence of product shortage, and it is possible to avoid unexpected shortage of the planned inventory quantity due to the error, and to further enhance customer service In addition, it is possible to perform inventory management that requires only a minimum inventory.

In the above, in order to carry out inventory management in consideration of fluctuations in lending, the expected lending quantity has a margin of error based on the error between the scheduled lending and the actual lending, thereby enabling the product shortage to occur. Although the inventory management was performed so as not to be performed, the inventory management taking the return rate characteristic into consideration is now described in the third embodiment.
It will be described as.

(Embodiment 3) In the first embodiment, the future lending quantity is scheduled from the lending reservation of the product, and the future return quantity is scheduled from the actual lending of the product. It has a means to plan the future stock quantity from the current stock quantity, and when a shortage of goods is predicted from the planned stock quantity, a mechanism to estimate the shortage quantity of the goods and replenish new products in advance, By calculating the appropriate amount of inventory based on the actual amount of the change and the expected amount of inventory, we have a mechanism to adjust the excess inventory to move it to another warehouse.
In the commodity rental business, when rental goods are returned for a predetermined period as promised, inventory management can be performed so that excessive inventory is not placed in the rental goods warehouse 1. The function of “planning the future return quantity from the product lending performance” has a function of “calculating the probability of return for each lender based on past performance”, and determining the return schedule for each lender in chronological order. This is reflected in the calculation of the planned inventory amount, the occurrence of product shortage can be represented by the probability, and this product shortage occurrence probability is reflected in the planned inventory quantity, so that the return fluctuation for each lender Insufficiency of inventory due to the influence can be prevented beforehand.

An example will be described. If there is a return fluctuation for each lender, if the return probability for each lender is calculated based on past results, the return schedule for each lender is calculated in chronological order, and this is reflected in the calculation of the planned inventory quantity, the product shortage Can be represented by probability.

That is, the return transition is calculated in consideration of the return pattern for each customer, and the return transition is replaced in the future period of the third embodiment, thereby reducing the error between the scheduled return number and the actual result.

In this case, first, the return rate for each customer is considered.

For each customer, statistics are collected on when the lent product was returned, and a distribution of the returned quantity is created for each customer. The distribution is 70 [%] on the day (0 day), 1 [%] on -2 days (2 days before), 5 [%] on -1 day (1 day before), and 10 [%] on +1 day (1 day after). , +2 days (2 days later)
%, +3 days (after 3 days), 3%,...

FIGS. 11 (a), (b) and (c) show FIG.
It is a distribution of the number of returns TR after n days, n-1 days, and n + 1 days, taking into account the return rate for the lending quantity graph indicated by "OUT" in 1 (a).

FIG. 11 (d) shows the sum of the return number distributions of (a), (b) and (c).

FIG. 11 (d) is obtained for each customer.
The total of all customers is summed up, the transition of the return of the warehouse is calculated, and it is set as the new return amount.

The new expected return amount is calculated by adding “TR” (scheduled collection time predicted from past lending results) and “TS” period (“To” period after “TR” period has elapsed) in FIG. 12) is applied to the return of FIG.

When a function of calculating a return rate and a function of calculating a new return number based on the number of loans and the return rate are added to the system configuration of FIG. 7, a system configuration as shown in FIG. 13 is obtained.

In FIG. 13, reference numeral 101 denotes a database of the unrented inventory lower limit value β, reference numeral 102 denotes an order database which holds order information of rental items, reference numeral 103 denotes a lending record database which stores lending record information, and reference numeral 104 denotes a return. Return record database that retains record information, 10
Reference numeral 5 denotes a correction amount database that holds information on the correction amount "H"; 106, a stock prediction database that holds stock "N" prediction information; 107, a stock result database holding information on stock results; 108, a movement amount "G""Is a movement amount database holding information of".

Reference numeral 109 denotes the order database 102
Is a scheduled lending amount calculation unit that calculates a scheduled lending amount during the period of “To” using the information of the order database 102 and the lending record database 103.
Is the expected return amount calculation unit that calculates the expected return amount within the period of TR and TS using the information of.

Reference numeral 111 denotes a loan performance database 1
Total lending calculation unit 112 for obtaining the total lending “No” in the rental warehouse 1 at the end of the operation using the information 03, the information on the return result database 104, and the information on the stock results held in the stock results database 107, 112 Is the total lending amount “No” obtained by the total lending operation unit 111, the expected return amount obtained by the expected return amount operation unit 110, the expected lending amount obtained by the new expected return amount operation unit 202, and the correction amount database 105.
From the information on the correction amount “H” held in the rental stock warehouse 1 to calculate the future stock total predicted value “Ni” in the rental goods warehouse 1. The calculation result of the future stock total calculation unit 112 is stored in the stock prediction database 106.

Reference numeral 113 denotes a correction amount calculation for calculating a correction amount “H” using β from the database 101 of the unrented inventory lower limit value β and the inventory “N” prediction information from the inventory prediction database 106. The correction amount database 105 holds the correction amount “H” obtained by the correction amount calculation unit 113.

Reference numeral 114 denotes a movement amount calculation unit.
The data of the unrented inventory lower limit value β from the unrented inventory lower limit value database 101 and the correction amount database 10
5 from the demand and the stock status using the information of the correction amount “H” from the stock information “5”, the stock “N” forecast information from the stock forecast database 106, and the stock actual information from the stock actual database 107. Is an arithmetic unit that calculates the excess inventory items and calculates it as an amount of movement to the nationwide warehouse 3. The information of the movement amount “G” obtained by the movement amount calculation unit 114 is stored in the movement amount database 108.

Reference numeral 115 denotes an order processing unit which obtains information on the correction amount “H” from the correction amount database 105 and orders goods to the new warehouse 4. Reference numeral 116 denotes a movement processing unit. This is for instructing (or displaying) the movement of the excess stock to the nationwide warehouse 3 in accordance with the data held in the movement amount database 108.

In this system, in addition to the configuration of FIG. 7, the scheduled return number database 201 for holding data of the expected return number calculated by the customer expected return number calculation unit 110,
A return rate calculation unit 203 that obtains a return rate for each customer from the data on the number of expected returns held in the expected number of returns database 201 and the return result data held in the return results database 104, and a calculation performed by the return rate calculation unit 203. Return rate database 202 that stores return rate data for each customer
And a new expected return amount calculation unit 204 that calculates a new expected return amount from the customer-specific return rate data held in the return rate database 202 and the expected return amount data held in the expected return number database 201. It is added and configured.

In the present system having such a configuration, the operator operates the operation terminal to operate the operation terminal, and the lower limit value of the unrented inventory number β, the period from today to the starting date, the period “To” during which the order of the lending exhibition from a certain customer is included. , The lending period “Tw” of lending to the customer who issued the order, the period “Tpast” for obtaining the actual value of the product transition in the rental product warehouse 1, and the target for predicting the future product transition in the rental product warehouse 1. Information such as a period “Tfuture”, a time “TM” for moving from the new warehouse 4 to the rental warehouse 1, a change cycle β of “β”, and a frequency of occurrence of shortage are initialized. Of course, if any of these elements needs to be changed, or needs to be changed, including new additions or cancellations,
At that point, information contents can be added, changed, deleted, and the like. In the initial stage, the number of stocked rental items and the like are also set. In addition, it is assumed that the order information of the rental item is sequentially input when an order from a customer is received, and that information such as actual lending and return is also sequentially input when the actual occurrence occurs.

When such information is input, the information of the lower limit of unrented inventory number “β” of the input information is stored in the database 101 of the lower limit of unrented inventory number “β”, and Product order information is in the order database 10
Second, the information on the loan performance is stored in the loan performance database 103.
, Return information is returned to the return record database 104,
Each is entered and held.

On the other hand, the scheduled lending amount calculation unit 109 calculates the scheduled lending amount during the period “To” using the information in the order database 102, and calculates the expected return amount calculation unit 11.
0 calculates the expected return amount within the period of TR and TS using the information of the order database 102 and the information of the loan performance database 103.

The data of the expected return number calculated by the customer expected return number calculation section 110 is stored in the expected return number database 20.
1 and stored here.

The return rate calculation unit 203 obtains a return rate for each customer from the data of the expected number of returns held in the expected number of returns database 201 and the actual return data held in the actual return database 104. The customer-specific return rate data obtained by the return rate calculation unit 203 is stored in the return rate database 202.

The new expected return amount calculation unit 204 calculates a new expected return amount from the customer-specific return rate data held in the return rate database 202 and the expected return amount data held in the expected return number database 201. Then, it is provided to the future inventory total number calculation unit 112.

Further, the total lending operation section 111 stores the information of the lending record database 103 and the return record database 10.
Using the information of No. 4 and the information of the actual stock held in the stock actual database 107, the total number of rentals “No” in the rental goods warehouse 1 at the end of the work is obtained. Then, the obtained information of the total number of lending “No” is given to the future total number calculating unit 112 and the actual stock database 107. As a result, the obtained latest lending total number “No” is stored in the stock record database 107.

On the other hand, the future stock total calculation unit 112 calculates the total lending “No” obtained by the total lending calculation unit 111, the new planned return amount calculated by the planned new return calculation unit 204, and the calculation of the planned lending amount calculation unit 109. Scheduled lending amount and correction amount database 1
From the information on the correction amount “H” held in the storage unit 05, a predicted future inventory total value “Ni” in the rental goods warehouse 1 is obtained.

The calculation result of the future stock total calculation unit 112 is stored in the stock prediction database 106.

On the other hand, the correction amount calculating section 113 corrects using the unrented inventory number lower limit value “β” from the unrented inventory number lower limit database 101 and the inventory “N” prediction information from the inventory prediction database 106. Calculate the quantity "H". Then, the correction amount “H” obtained by the correction amount calculation unit 113 is held in the correction amount database 105.

Further, the movement amount calculation unit 114 calculates the data of the unrented inventory number lower limit value β from the unrented inventory number lower limit database 101, the information of the correction amount “H” from the correction amount database 105, and the inventory prediction. Using the stock (N) forecast information from the database 106 and the stock actual information from the stock actual database 107, the excess stock in the rental goods warehouse 1 is calculated from the demand and the stock situation, and the calculated excess stock is stored in the nationwide warehouse 3. Calculated as the amount of movement to The information of the movement amount “G” obtained by the movement amount calculation unit 114 is stored in the movement amount database 108.

Then, the order processing section 115 obtains the information of the correction amount “H” from the correction amount database 105 and places an order for a product to the new warehouse 4. Thereby, even if the demand increases rapidly, it is possible to always operate the business with the appropriate stock.

On the other hand, if there is an excess stock according to the data held in the movement amount database 108, the movement processing unit 116 instructs the movement of the excess stock to the nationwide warehouse 3.
When this instruction is given, the rental item manager arranges to move the indicated amount of excess inventory to the nationwide warehouse 3 so that even if demand decreases, excess inventory does not occur. We can always operate our business with proper stock.

In addition, according to this method, the return pattern from the customer is weighted and corrected to a value of the return amount that is closer to the actual value. Inventory adjustments that take into account are made possible, and even if the return does not proceed as planned, it is possible to respond to lending without falling short of inventory.

Next, an example in which a future demand forecast without a reservation, for example, a longer future demand forecast from past results, will be described as a fourth embodiment.

(Embodiment 4) In the first embodiment, a future lending quantity is scheduled from a lending reservation of a product, and a future return quantity is scheduled from a lending result of a product. It has a means to plan the future stock quantity from the current stock quantity, and when a shortage of goods is predicted from the planned stock quantity, a mechanism to estimate the shortage quantity of the goods and replenish new products in advance, By calculating the appropriate amount of inventory based on the actual amount of the change and the expected amount of inventory, we have a mechanism to adjust the excess inventory to move it to another warehouse.
In the commodity rental business, when rental goods are returned for a predetermined period as promised, inventory management can be performed so that excessive inventory is not placed in the rental goods warehouse 1. Here, we have a function to predict the transition of lending in the future from a certain period of product lending reservations, shift the prediction of the date of occurrence of product shortage to the future, and have a function to give room for new purchases An example in which inventory management of rental products can be optimally performed from a long-term perspective by performing the management will be described as a fourth embodiment.

Here, for the future in which no reservation is made for lending, the future lending quantity is predicted from the past lending results, and the shortage quantity obtained in the first embodiment is estimated, and new lending and excess restocking are performed. A method of calculating the movement amount for a future period will be described.

<Future Lending Transition Forecast Amount Application Type> In FIG. 2, the lending schedule is “To”, but here, “T”
Add a mechanism to predict the future lending volume from the past lending results for the future from "o", and add a lending trend for the future from "To". A return trend is added for the future.

If the prediction period of lending is “Toe”, FIG.
Is as shown in FIG. FIG. 14A shows a loan, and FIG. 14B shows a return.
The dotted line indicates the future prediction part. Here, "To
The return period corresponding to “e” is “Tse”.

By applying (Equation 1) to the period of “Toe”,
“Ni” in the “Toe” period is obtained.

Hereinafter, similarly, “H”, “N (after correction)”,
For "NN" and "G", the period of "Toe" can be calculated.

FIG. 15 is a functional block diagram showing an example of a system configuration for realizing the present embodiment in which a prediction function is added to the configuration of FIG.
Shown in

In the present system, in addition to the configuration of FIG. 7, the expected lending amount calculation unit 301, the lending prediction data storage unit 302 after the period “To”, and the expected return amount calculation unit 3
03, Return prediction data holding unit 30 after the period of “Ts”
4 is provided.

That is, in FIG. 15, reference numeral 101 denotes a database of the lower limit value β of the unrented inventory, and 102 denotes an order database holding order information of rental items.
03 is a lending record database that holds lending record information, 104 is a return record database that holds return record information, 105 is a correction amount database that holds correction amount “H” information, and 106 is inventory “N” prediction information , 107 is a stock result database holding information on stock results, and 108 is a movement amount database holding information on the movement amount “G”.

Reference numeral 301 denotes the lending record database 10
3 is a scheduled lending amount prediction calculation unit for predicting the expected lending amount after the period of “To”, and the lending prediction data storage unit 302 after the period of “To” holds the prediction result. is there.

The expected return amount calculation unit 303 is for predicting the expected return amount after the “To” period by using the data held in the lending prediction data storage unit 302 after the “To” period. The function is the same as the function of the expected return amount calculation unit 110. The expected return data holding unit 304 after the period “Ts” is for holding the expected return amount data after the “To” period obtained by the expected return amount calculation unit 303.

Reference numeral 109 denotes the order database 102
Is a scheduled lending amount calculation unit that calculates a scheduled lending amount during the period of “To” using the information of the order database 102 and the lending record database 103.
Is the expected return amount calculation unit that calculates the expected return amount within the period of TR and TS using the information of.

Reference numeral 111 denotes the loan performance database 1
Total lending calculation unit 112 for obtaining the total lending “No” in the rental warehouse 1 at the end of the operation using the information 03, the information on the return result database 104, and the information on the stock results held in the stock results database 107, 112 Is the total number of lending “No” obtained by the total lending amount calculation unit 111, the expected return amount calculated by the expected return amount calculation unit 110, and the expected lending amount calculation unit 1
09 and the information on the correction amount “H” stored in the correction amount database 105 and the lending prediction data storage unit 302 after the period “To” are stored in the lending prediction data storage unit 302 after the period “Ts”. Based on the predicted amount of return data after the “To” period held in the predicted return data storage unit 304, the predicted future inventory total value “Ni” in the rental warehouse 1 is calculated.
Is a calculation unit for calculating the total number of future stocks. The calculation result of the future stock total calculation unit 112 is calculated by the stock prediction database 106.
Is stored in

Reference numeral 113 denotes a correction amount calculation for calculating a correction amount “H” using β from the database 101 of the lower limit value of unrented inventory number β from the database 101 and inventory “N” prediction information from the inventory prediction database 106. The correction amount database 105 holds the correction amount “H” obtained by the correction amount calculation unit 113.

Reference numeral 114 denotes a movement amount calculation unit.
The data of the unrented inventory lower limit value β from the unrented inventory lower limit value database 101 and the correction amount database 10
5 from the demand and the stock status using the information of the correction amount “H” from the stock information “5”, the stock “N” forecast information from the stock forecast database 106, and the stock actual information from the stock actual database 107. Is an arithmetic unit that calculates the excess inventory items and calculates it as an amount of movement to the nationwide warehouse 3. The information of the movement amount “G” obtained by the movement amount calculation unit 114 is stored in the movement amount database 108.

Reference numeral 115 denotes an order processing unit which obtains information on the correction amount “H” from the correction amount database 105 and orders goods to the new warehouse 4. Reference numeral 116 denotes a movement processing unit. This is for instructing (or displaying) the movement of the excess stock to the nationwide warehouse 3 in accordance with the data held in the movement amount database 108.

In this system having such a configuration, the operator operates the operation terminal to operate the operation terminal, and the lower limit value β of the unrented inventory, the period from today to the starting date, the period “To” during which the order of the loaned exhibition from a certain customer is included. , The lending period “Tw” of lending to the customer who issued the order, the period “Tpast” for obtaining the actual value of the product transition in the rental product warehouse 1, the target for predicting the future product transition in the rental product warehouse 1 Initially, information such as a period “Tfuture”, a time “TM” for moving from the new warehouse 4 to the rental warehouse 1, a change cycle β of “β”, and a frequency of occurrence of shortage are set. Of course, if any of these elements needs to be changed, or needs to be changed, including new additions or cancellations,
At that point, information contents can be added, changed, deleted, and the like. In the initial stage, the number of stocked rental items and the like are also set. In addition, it is assumed that the order information of the rental item is sequentially input when an order from a customer is received, and that information such as actual lending and return is also sequentially input when the actual occurrence occurs.

When such information is input, among the input information, the information of the lower limit of unrented inventory number “β” is stored in the database 101 of the lower limit of unrented inventory number “β”, and Product order information is in the order database 10
Second, the information on the loan performance is stored in the loan performance database 103.
, Return information is returned to the return record database 104,
Each is entered and held.

On the other hand, the scheduled lending amount calculation unit 109 calculates the expected lending amount during the period “To” using the information in the order database 102, and calculates the expected return amount calculation unit 11.
0 calculates the expected return amount within the period of TR and TS using the information of the order database 102 and the information of the loan performance database 103.

The expected lending amount calculation unit 301 predicts the expected lending amount after the “To” period from the data in the actual lending database 103, and the lending prediction data storage unit 302 after the “To” period predicts the lending amount. Hold the result. Then, the expected return amount calculation unit 303 predicts the expected return amount after the “To” period using the data held in the lending prediction data storage unit 302 after the “To” period,
The return prediction data holding unit 304 after the period of “Ts”
The expected return amount prediction data after the “To” period obtained by the expected return amount prediction calculation unit 303 is held.

Further, the loan total number calculation unit 111 stores the information of the loan result database 103 and the return result database 10.
Using the information of No. 4 and the information of the actual stock held in the stock actual database 107, the total number of rentals “No” in the rental goods warehouse 1 at the end of the work is obtained. Then, the obtained information of the total number of lending “No” is given to the future total number calculating unit 112 and the actual stock database 107. As a result, the obtained latest lending total number “No” is stored in the stock record database 107.

On the other hand, the future inventory total number calculation unit 112
Is the total number of lending “No” obtained by the total lending operation unit 111, the expected return amount obtained by the expected return amount operation unit 110, the expected lending amount obtained by the expected lending amount operation unit 109, and the correction held in the correction amount database 105. The information of the amount “H”, the prediction result data stored in the lending prediction data storage unit 302 after the period of “To”, and the return prediction data storage unit 304 after the period of “Ts” after the “To” period From the expected return amount data, a future inventory total predicted value “Ni” in the rental goods warehouse 1 is obtained.

The calculation result of the future stock total calculation unit 112 is stored in the stock prediction database 106.

On the other hand, the correction amount calculating section 113 corrects using the unrented inventory number lower limit value “β” from the unrented inventory number lower limit database 101 and the inventory “N” prediction information from the inventory prediction database 106. Calculate the quantity "H". Then, the correction amount “H” obtained by the correction amount calculation unit 113 is held in the correction amount database 105.

Further, the movement amount calculation unit 114 calculates the data of the unrented stock number lower limit value β from the unrented stock number lower limit database 101, the information of the correction amount “H” from the correction amount database 105, and the inventory prediction. Using the stock (N) forecast information from the database 106 and the stock actual information from the stock actual database 107, the excess stock in the rental goods warehouse 1 is calculated from the demand and the stock situation, and the calculated excess stock is stored in the nationwide warehouse 3. Calculated as the amount of movement to The information of the movement amount “G” obtained by the movement amount calculation unit 114 is stored in the movement amount database 108.

Then, the order processing unit 115 obtains the information of the correction amount “H” from the correction amount database 105 and places an order for a product to the new warehouse 4. Thereby, even if the demand increases rapidly, it is possible to always operate the business with the appropriate stock.

On the other hand, if there is an excess stock according to the data held in the movement amount database 108, the transfer processing unit 116 instructs the transfer of the excess stock to the nationwide warehouse 3.
When this instruction is given, the rental item manager arranges to move the indicated amount of excess inventory to the nationwide warehouse 3 so that even if demand decreases, excess inventory does not occur. We can always operate our business with proper stock.

[0158] Also, a lending prediction and return prediction function in the future after the "To" period is added, and "T" is used for future stock calculation.
The correction amount “H” and the movement amount “G” can be obtained for the future further than the system of the first embodiment by taking into account the situation in the future after the “o” period. The movement can be scheduled for a future farther than the possible future period of the system of the first embodiment.

DE corresponding to several customers at once
If a PO (stacking point) is set up between the rental warehouse 1 and the customer, and the DEPO does not have inventory and is only positioned to deliver the goods received from the rental warehouse 1 to the customer, the DEPO sends the customer to the customer After calculating the rental and return schedule of the warehouse, the rental and return from the warehouse
Fifth Embodiment An example in which a summary of lending from a PO to all customers and a summary of return are calculated, a stock schedule in a warehouse is calculated, a product shortage in the rental goods warehouse 1 is eliminated, and inventory is reduced. It will be described as.

(Embodiment 5) A method of performing inventory adjustment in a warehouse when there is a DEPO that handles several customers collectively will be described.

An embodiment for adjusting the stock in the warehouse when a DEPO in charge of a certain customer is provided between the rental goods warehouse 1 and the customer will be described.

Under these conditions, the system shown in FIG. 1 is as shown in FIG. That is, there is a rental goods warehouse 1, a DEPO 5a for customers A, B, and C, and a customer C,
There is DEPO5b for D ... D for customer Z
There is an EPO5n, and rental goods returned from DEPO5a-5n to DEPO are rental goods warehouse 1 from DEPO.
Then, the rental goods warehouse 1 temporarily sends the rental goods to the remanufacturing station 2, where it is reproduced, and then returned to the rental goods warehouse 1 to make the rental goods in stock. Now, the rental from the rental warehouse 1 to the DEPOs 5a, 5b, ~ 5n is "O
1 "," O2 "," On ", and lending from DEPO5a to customers A, B, and C, respectively, are" O1A ",
It is assumed to be represented as “O1B” or “O1C”.

Similarly, DEPO5 to rental goods warehouse 1
a, 5b, and 5n return "I1,""I2," and "I
n ", the return from the customers A, B, C to the DEPO5a is" I1A "," I1B "," I1C ", and each variable is an array, the current day is 0 day, the next day is 1 day, and the previous day is- 1
Days.

The rental from the rental goods warehouse 1 to the DEPO is performed one day before the rental from the DEPO to the customer, and the DE
If it is assumed that the return from the customer once collected at the PO is returned to the rental goods warehouse 1 on the next day, the rental “O1 (n)” from the rental goods warehouse 1 to the DEPO 5a is Becomes

The return I1 (n) from the DEPO 5a to the rental goods warehouse 1 is The Oi (n) and Ii (n) obtained by (Equation 6) and (Equation 8) are treated as rental and return from the rental warehouse 1 to the customer in FIG. To adjust the inventory in the warehouse.

As a result, the DEPO between the warehouse and the customer
, It becomes possible to adjust the stock quantity in the warehouse. Further, in the same manner as the first embodiment can be improved as in the second to fourth embodiments, the fifth embodiment can be improved.

When the fifth embodiment is improved by the method of the third embodiment, Ii is not calculated directly from Oi, but Iij is always calculated from Oij, and Iij is summed up in DEPO units to obtain Ii. (Because we look at the correlation between Oij and Iij).

Various embodiments have been described above. In short, the present invention is based on past performance information and current reservation information.
Calculates the amount of excess or deficiency in product inventory in the future within the range of the given occurrence frequency of shortage, and adjusts the inventory of the expected excess or deficiency if excess or deficiency is expected. Therefore, it is possible to always maintain the optimal stock as long as the shortage occurrence frequency is allowed for the fluctuating demand.

Therefore, according to the present invention, it is possible to keep the stock amount low, and furthermore, by predicting the occurrence of a shortage product and performing a purchase procedure in advance, it is possible to avoid the possibility of borrowing due to a shortage of the product. It is also possible to calculate and display the excess inventory in the warehouse by providing a function to adjust the inventory in an appropriate period, provide information for inventory adjustment, and provide a balance. In this state, inventory adjustment and rental operation of rental items can be performed.

Note that the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, and can be implemented with various modifications. In addition, the method described in the above-described embodiment is stored in a recording medium such as a magnetic disk (floppy disk, hard disk, etc.), an optical disk (CD-ROM, DVD, etc.), a semiconductor memory, or the like, as a program that can be executed by a computer. You can also distribute.

[0171]

As described above, according to the present invention, it is possible to appropriately maintain the inventory of rented / returned goods in a warehouse, and to systematically carry out new purchase and transfer to surplus inventory. realizable.

[Brief description of the drawings]

FIG. 1 is a diagram for explaining an example of the structure of a product rental business that is a target of a management system according to the present invention.

FIG. 2 is a graph showing an example of the transition of the total number of rental goods rented to customers A to C and the transition of the total number of returned goods from customers A to C in FIG.

FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating Embodiment 1 of the present invention.

FIG. 4 is the total number of rentals scheduled at the rental goods warehouse 1 “Oi”.
5 is a graph showing an example of the transition of the total number of returned rental articles “Ii” in the rental article warehouse 1 and the transition of the total number of stock “Ni” in the rental article warehouse 1 at the end of daily work.

FIG. 5 is a diagram for explaining the first embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 6 shows an example of a change in the amount of lending in the rental goods warehouse 1 “N”, an example of a change in the amount of new stock replenished as “H”, and the total number of stocks in the rental goods warehouse 1 “N”.
The figure which shows the example of transition of the quantity of stock "NN" except the quantity "H" newly replenished in a period and Tfuture period.

FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating an example of a block configuration of a management system according to the first embodiment.

FIG. 8 is a flowchart illustrating the operation of the management system according to the first embodiment.

FIG. 9 is a graph showing a transition example of the original expected return number and the actual number.

FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of a scheduled error range in which a scheduled value of a period “To” is added.

FIG. 11 is a diagram for explaining a third embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 12 is a diagram for explaining Embodiment 3 of the present invention, in which a new return amount is indicated by “TR” (scheduled collection time predicted from past lending results) and “TS” period in FIG. 2; ("T
FIG. 14 is a diagram illustrating a case where the “R” period has elapsed and the “To” period has been added).

FIG. 13 is a diagram illustrating an example of a block configuration of a management system according to a third embodiment.

FIG. 14 is a diagram showing an example of the results of lending and return, and a change in future prediction when a longer prediction period is set.

FIG. 15 is a diagram illustrating an example of a block configuration of a management system according to a fourth embodiment.

FIG. 16 is a DEPO that handles several customers at once
The figure for demonstrating the example of the structure of the goods rental business which becomes the object of Example 5 in which (accumulation place) exists.

[Explanation of symbols]

101: Database of unrented inventory lower limit value β, 102
... Order database, 103 ... Lending record database, 104 ... Return record database, 105 ... Correction amount database, 106 ... Stock forecasting database, 107 ...
Inventory result database, 108 ... movement amount database,
109: scheduled lending amount calculation unit, 110: scheduled return amount calculation unit, 111: lending total calculation unit, 112: future stock total calculation unit, 113: correction amount calculation unit, 114: movement amount calculation unit,
115 ... Order processing unit, 201 ... Scheduled return number database, 202 ... Return rate database, 203 ... Return rate calculation unit, 204 ... New planned return amount calculation unit, 301 ... Scheduled lending amount prediction calculation unit, 302: "To" Lending prediction data storage unit after the period, 303 ... Scheduled return amount prediction calculation unit, 304 ...
Return prediction data holding unit after the period of “Ts”.

Claims (6)

[Claims] A means for providing reservation information for product lending, a lending result information holding means for holding lending result information, a return result information holding means for holding return result information, and a scheduled lending amount based on the result of the reservation. Scheduled lending amount calculation means for calculating the expected lending amount from the past lending and return results, and the expected lending amount prediction calculation means for estimating the daily lending amount during the reserved period. Means for calculating the expected amount of return to be calculated; means for calculating the expected amount of future stock from the determined expected amount of lending and return; and the excess / deficiency of future product inventory; An excess / deficiency amount calculating means for calculating an excess / deficiency amount of the product inventory in the future within a range that allows the occurrence of a shortage at the shortage occurrence frequency based on the scheduled amount and the given shortage occurrence frequency; Order processing means for obtaining and instructing the purchase amount and purchase time of the missing product when the shortage is predicted, and an excess amount of the product inventory based on the excess or shortage obtained by the excess or shortage calculation means. And a movement processing unit for instructing, when an excessive inventory amount is obtained, to carry out the excess amount. 2. A means for providing reservation information for product lending, a lending result information holding means for holding lending result information, a return result information holding means for holding return result information, and a scheduled lending amount from the result of the reservation. Scheduled lending amount calculation means for calculating the expected lending amount based on past lending and return results, and expected lending amount prediction calculating means for estimating the daily lending amount during the reserved period The expected return amount calculating means for calculating the quantity, the return rate is obtained from the expected return amount for each customer and the past return results, and the expected return amount for each customer is corrected for this return rate to obtain a new expected return amount. Means for calculating a planned future stock amount from the calculated new expected return amount, expected loan amount, expected return amount, and excess / deficient amount of commodity inventory in the future; A calculating means for calculating an excess or deficiency in the stock of the product in the future within a range that allows the occurrence of a shortage with the shortage occurrence frequency based on the scheduled storage amount and the given shortage occurrence frequency; Order processing means for obtaining and instructing the purchase quantity and purchase time of the lacking product when it is predicted, and excess product stock quantity for obtaining the excess of the product stock quantity based on the excess or deficiency quantity obtained by the calculation means A rental item management device, comprising: a minute calculation unit; and a movement processing unit that instructs, when an excessive inventory amount is determined, to carry out the excess amount. 3. A means for providing reservation information for product lending, a lending result information holding means for holding lending result information, a return result information holding means for holding return result information, and a scheduled lending amount based on the result of the reservation. Scheduled lending amount calculation means for calculating the expected lending amount from the past lending and return results, and the expected lending amount prediction calculation means for estimating the daily lending amount during the reserved period. The expected return amount calculating means for calculating; the expected lending amount prediction means for estimating the lending amount after a predetermined period based on the actual lending; and the expected return amount for estimating the future expected return amount from the expected lending amount after the predetermined period Forecasting means, the future return amount, the lending amount prediction value after a predetermined period,
Means for calculating an estimated future inventory amount from the expected lending amount and the expected return amount and the excess or deficiency amount of the product inventory in the future; A calculating means for calculating the amount of excess or deficiency of the stock of goods in the future within a range in which the occurrence of shortage is allowed, and the quantity of the missing goods when the shortage is predicted from the excess or deficiency. Order processing means for determining and instructing the purchase time, and an excess inventory quantity calculating means for obtaining an excess of the inventory quantity based on the excess or deficiency amount obtained by the calculating means, and an excess inventory quantity for the product. And a moving processing means for instructing to carry out the surplus in the case of a rental item management device. 4. A method for storing rental performance information and return performance information as well as providing product lending reservation information, calculating a daily scheduled lending amount from the reservation performance information, Estimate the daily lending volume during the reserved period from the return results, calculate the daily return volume from the past lending results, and calculate the estimated lending volume, the expected return volume, and the excess of future product inventory. Calculate the future planned inventory amount from the shortage amount, and based on the calculated planned inventory amount and the given shortage occurrence frequency, the excess or deficiency of the product inventory in the future within the allowable range of the shortage occurrence frequency Calculate the quantity, and when the shortage of the product is predicted from the excess or deficiency, obtain and indicate the purchase quantity and the purchase time of the lacking product, and, based on the excess or deficiency, Excess Determined, rental item management method characterized by instructing so as to discharge the excess product inventory amount when excessive product inventory amount had been determined. 5. The system according to claim 5, further comprising: storing the rental result information and the return result information; and providing reservation information of the product lending; calculating a daily scheduled lending amount from the reservation result information; Predict the daily scheduled lending volume during the reservation period from the actual return, calculate the daily scheduled return volume per customer from the actual loan, and return rate based on the expected return volume per customer and past return performance The expected return amount for each customer is corrected for this return rate to obtain a new return amount, and the new return amount, the expected loan amount, the expected return amount, and the excess or deficiency of product inventory in the future are calculated. The future planned inventory quantity is determined, and the excess and deficiency of the product inventory in the future within a range that allows the occurrence of the shortage with the shortage occurrence frequency is determined from the calculated scheduled inventory quantity and the given shortage occurrence frequency. Fault When the shortage of the commodity is predicted from the quantity, the quantity of the missing commodity and the purchase time are obtained and instructed.In addition, the excess quantity of the commodity inventory is obtained based on the excess quantity and the excess quantity, A rental item management method, wherein when a product inventory amount is obtained, an instruction is issued to carry out the excess product inventory amount. 6. A method for storing lending record information and return record information, and also providing reservation information for merchandise lending, calculating a daily scheduled lending amount from the reservation record information, The expected amount of daily lending during the reserved period is predicted from the actual return, the expected amount of daily return is calculated from the past actual lending, and the expected amount of lending after a predetermined period is calculated from the past actual lending. The expected future return amount is predicted from the expected lending amount after the predetermined period, the future expected return amount, the expected lending amount after the predetermined period,
Based on the expected lending amount and the expected return amount, and the excess / deficiency of product inventory in the future, the future planned inventory amount is calculated, and based on the calculated planned inventory amount and the given shortage occurrence frequency, the shortage occurrence of the shortage occurrence frequency is determined. Calculate the amount of excess or deficiency in the product inventory in the future within the allowable range, and when the shortage of the product is predicted from this excess or deficiency, obtain and indicate the purchase amount and purchase time of the insufficient product, A rental product, wherein an excess of the product inventory is obtained based on the excess or deficiency, and when the excess product inventory is obtained, an instruction is given to carry out the excess product inventory. Management method.