FR3008515A1 - METHOD AND DEVICE FOR PREDICTING THE EVOLUTION OF THE ELECTRICITY TARIFF - Google Patents

Abstract

The present invention relates to a method of managing an electricity supply installation in premises. This process is characterized in that it comprises steps consisting essentially of: - observing the evolution over time of the electricity tariff; - to forecast the future evolution of the tariff on the basis of the previous evolution observed. The subject of the invention is also a management device for implementing such a method, and comprising a signal receiving means (2) for receiving, with or without a wire, a tariff information signal originating from the central counter (3) of the electrical installation, a memory (4), for storing the evolution of the tariff over time, a processing unit (5), to predict, on the basis of the previous evolution of the memorized tariff , the future evolution of the tariff.

Description

DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION The present invention relates to the field of domestic electrical power supply installations and its purpose is, on the one hand, a management method, and, on the other hand, a device implementing this method.

A domestic electrical installation is normally powered from a single point of entry, formed by a central meter, under the control of the electricity supplier. This meter is used in particular for billing, since it gradually accounts for the amount of energy consumed by the installation.

The electricity tariff, defined by the supplier, may be modulated over time over the course of a day, the purpose of which, by incentive effect, is to better distribute overall electricity consumption over time. An inexpensive tariff is thus proposed in periods of low overall demand, and, conversely, a more expensive tariff is imposed during periods of high demand. In order for this modulation of the tariff to have an impact on overall consumption, it is so obvious that the user must be informed of the tariff, to better organize consumption over time. The current tariff is thus a piece of information that the meter constantly emits. This broadcast can be wired or wireless. Only the information of the current tariff is thus communicated, which hampers the good planning for the user, and therefore limits the extent to which the overall consumption is smoothed. It is therefore necessary to provide more precise information for the evolution of the tariff. The present invention aims to overcome at least a part and preferably all these drawbacks, by generating an evaluation of the future tariff, on the one hand, by following in time tariff information in progress, and, secondly, by exploiting the tariff evolution observed to propose to the user a forecast of future rates. The user can then have more information to organize his consumption over time. To this end, the object of the invention is, on the one hand, a method of managing a facility for providing electricity in premises, characterized in that it comprises stages consisting essentially of: -2- observe the evolution over time of the electricity tariff; - to forecast the future evolution of the tariff on the basis of the previous evolution observed. The subject of the invention is also a device for managing an electricity supply installation, for the implementation of such a method, this device being characterized in that it comprises a signal reception means, for receive, with or without wire, a tariff information signal from the central meter of the electrical installation, a memory, to memorize the evolution of the tariff over time, a processing unit, to predict, on the basis of the The invention will be better understood, thanks to the following description, which refers to a preferred embodiment, given by way of non-limiting example, and explained with reference to the attached schematic drawing, Figure 1, which represents the essential elements of the device and their interactions according to the method. The invention therefore firstly relates to a method of managing an electricity supply installation in premises, types apartment, house, building, etc.. A domestic installation forms an electricity grid supplied from a single point of entry, where a meter 3 is placed which records the electricity consumption of the entire installation for billing purposes by the energy supplier. The counter 3 can be in the premises, or outside. The rate of electricity can be modulated according to the time slots of the day, or even depending on the day of the week, or the season. Current tariff information is generally given to meters 3 centrally by the electricity supplier.

Different communication techniques are used for this exchange between the supplier and the meter 3: power line, wireless communication, dedicated communication network, or even telephone, etc. This exchange of information can be done more or less frequently: once a day, at each rate change, once a week, etc. The rate information received by the counter 3 may be a single tariff or a schedule of tariffs spread over time. - 3 - Generally, the meter 3 in turn provides the information of the current tariff. In practice, the counter 3 periodically sends a signal corresponding to the tariff in force, for example every minute. Again, this communication can be done through the transmission of a wired or wireless signal from the counter 3. This exchange of information is commonly known in France under the name of TéléInformation-Client. The counter 3 is thus provided with a wireless transmitter and / or a terminal block for connecting a wire conductor for transmitting information of this type.

This exchange allows to provide the customer with a set of information on its consumption: current tariff, or current consumption, cumulated consumption, etc. In frequent cases where only the current rate is provided by the meter 3 to the user, the latter does not have enough information to organize its energy consumption in a manner that is both inexpensive and effective. Indeed, it is difficult for him to decide whether the use of this or that electrical equipment, the duration of which may possibly be known, should be immediate or deferred and, if necessary, deferred until when. The invention proposes then to follow the rate information provided by the counter 3 and to use this information for predictive purposes. Thus, while the counter 3 only provides a current rate, the method makes it possible to obtain estimates of the future evolution of the rate, which can then be made to the user. To predict the future rate, it is possible to rely on the repetition of a scheme in the instantaneous rate monitored, such as: daily repetition, from one day to another, of the same time evolution frame of the rate, weekly repetition, from one week to the next, of the same tariff time frame, repetition of the increase of the rate from one time slot to another, repetition of the reduction of the rate of a portion time to time, repetition of switching times, etc. The forecast of the future tariff is thus done by repeating a pattern detected in the past variations of the tariff. Thus, generally speaking, according to the invention, the method comprises stages consisting essentially in: - observing the evolution over time of the tariff of electricity; - to forecast the future evolution of the tariff on the basis of the previous evolution observed. - 4 - The tariff information provided by the meter 3 is therefore received, tracked, and exploited to infer predictive at least one tariff in the future: it may be the tariff succeeding the tariff in force, possibly with the moment of corresponding permutation, or several successive future rates, possibly with the corresponding permutation instants. The information of the future tariff does not therefore come here from the counter 3 itself, which only provides instant fare information, but rather from a calculation made on the basis of the past temporal evolutions of the instant fare, which may have been be observed and analyzed. The current tariff information provided by the counter 3 is therefore analyzed to make a future rate forecast, preferably quantified and defined over time. At any given moment, it is therefore possible to foresee a change in the tariff, on the basis of the tariff information previously received and an analysis of the past evolution of the tariff. Thus, in preferred embodiments, the observed tariff is provided. , with or without wire, by a central counter 3 of the electrical installation. To provide this signal, the counter 3 periodically transmits a signal representing the current tariff. It is therefore well the information provided by the counter 3 which is stored and analyzed to deduce a future evolution frame of the tariff According to a possible additional feature of the process, it comprises a step consisting essentially of indicating the tariff in force, the next different tariff, as well as a future time reference for switching between the current tariff and the next tariff, in particular in a relative manner, in the form of a time remaining, or absolutely, in the form of a fixed moment, namely an hour or even a date. This triple display can of course be implemented independently of the other characteristics mentioned above, in particular even if the information of the future tariff is not obtained according to the method described here, but obtained for example directly by the meter. Electricity rates typically vary in successive stages, and it is therefore quite possible to inform the next level, or even several future levels, or even times of passage from one to the other. In absolute terms, it is entirely possible to exploit the fare information received to derive and report several successive future rate bands. In case of continuous evolution of the tariff, it may for example be considered that the next tariff is the one that differs in a predefined way from the current tariff, for example with a percentage. Different forms of display are conceivable for these three pieces of information. Thus, for a tariff information, current or future, it is possible to use a quality code at several levels, each of them corresponding to a tariff range or directly to a well-known rate, such as full-time rates / off-peak hours in France. Each level may be associated with a color diode, for example, or with a marker for a moving cursor. The following tariff may be indicated by an arrow representing the variation of the tariff, downward or upward, by another set of diodes, or by a flashing of the same diodes. A graph can also be used, with bars whose length represents the tariff, and the width the time slot concerned, etc. This display can be done in different places: a device that retrieves the tariff information and makes the forecast, a central management, a remote communicating device, standalone device dedicated to the display, computer, tablet, phone, or d other communicating devices on GSM network, internet, or other. The display is advantageously in the premises of the facility for better consideration by the user. According to an additional possible feature, the method comprises a step consisting essentially in memorizing the observed evolution of the tariff, the forecast of the future evolution being done by consulting the stored rate evolution The memorization can be done according to a predefined frame, and essentially consist of storing the observed tariff for a predefined slice in such a frame, for example a 24-hour frame cut into one-minute slices, a one-week frame, etc. The received tariff information itself may be stored or a processing may also be done prior to storage. For example, the memorization can take place only if the value observed differs from that memorized. It is also possible to memorize a rate with a start time, then memorize the evolution in the form of a new rate and a new start time and so on. The storage can also be done following an averaging, for example: a new instant of permutation is stored, by calculating an average on the basis, on the one hand, of the moment memorized up to now, and, on the other hand, the new instant of permutation observed. In particular embodiments, the stored evolution is based on a cyclically repeated frame, in particular a frame of seven days, in particular a frame of five days identical to each other and then two days identical to each other. The memorization is done on the assumption that the tariff is repeated cyclically, the duration of this cycle can be a day, a week, a season, a year, etc.

The frame can correspond to the rate per minute, over a period of 24 hours, or more. The same stored frame can therefore be updated regularly by the instantaneous rate values provided by the counter 3. In advantageous embodiments, the frame is spread over a seven-day week, the first five days can exploit the same frame, both the last ones can exploit a clean frame, to differentiate thus Saturdays and Sundays. In order for the process to quickly be able to perform a predictive calculation of the future tariff, the rate observed during the first day of surveillance is directly duplicated and assigned to several days: the first five days of the week and / or last two. It is thus possible to have a prediction of the tariff while the complete seven-day frame has not yet been completely monitored. Advantageously, to predict the future evolution of the tariff is therefore based on the principle that the real rate will follow again the stored frame. At each instant, the method can therefore identify, preferably by means of a clock, the portion of the time frame that is in progress, and use the subsequent rates stored in the frame to predict, possibly by simple repetition, a future time evolution of the tariff This predictive calculation is based on a principle where the successive instantaneous rates are stored in a chronological frame. Alternatively, the storage step essentially consists in memorizing, on the one hand, the times of permutation of tariff, and, on the other hand, the associated tariffs. In general, the principle of predictive calculus is adapted to the form of the stored information for the previous tariffs observed. In advantageous embodiments, the evolution of the stored tariff is updated taking into account the evolution of the observed tariff, in particular by calculating a new value for the permutation instants, from the observed permutation and from the saved permutation, or by calculating a new value for a tariff Each new value can be taken into account to calculate a new average value. It is of course possible to provide a reset step, possibly forced by the user. In particular, according to a possible additional feature of the method, it comprises a step of erasing the stored rate evolution, if, compared to the observed evolution, a difference beyond a threshold is detected. Thus, the memorized evolution of the tariff is compared with the evolution observed, and, if a too great difference is detected, only the observed evolution is memorized. The content of the memory is thus erased and replaced by the evolution actually observed. Thus, the evolution observed is directly memorized, without any weighting with the evolution already memorized. Otherwise, if a simple average was calculated, a new, very different, isolated value could have very little impact on an overall average value, for example when it represents a new pricing.

Finally, according to another possible additional feature, the method comprises steps consisting essentially in receiving the current tariff directly from the meter 3, then transmitting the current tariff on a home automation bus 9, the observation of the tariff being made on the basis of the information circulating on said bus, as well as an additional step consisting essentially in transmitting 103, on the bus 9, information representing the current tariff, and / or the future tariff, and / or time information of permutation from one to the other. Thus, the current tariff information is received 101 directly from the counter 3, by a suitable device, through the conventional communication channel 30 for this kind of information that generates the counter 3 to its environment, or TV Information Customers: wired, wireless, or others. The device receiving the tariff information transmits it 102 then, after possible conversion, to a home automation bus 9. The current tariff information, normally received from the counter 3 with a clean coding, is thus transmitted 102 on a bus 9, this information can then be used by a variety of equipment installed on this bus 9. - 8 - It is expected that the device ensuring the monitoring of the current tariff and the calculation of a future rate is a device operating on the home bus 9, and thus receiving by the bus 9 instant fare information. It transmits 103 in turn the predictive rate information via the home automation bus 9, which can then be subsequently exploited by any equipment that requires it: display, programmer, load shed, calculator, etc. The tariff information therefore circulates firstly on the communication channel provided on the counter 3, then on the home automation bus 9.

The method therefore uses, on the one hand, the communication channel provided on the counter 3 to circulate the tariff information in force, and, on the other hand, the home automation bus 9 to circulate the information of the tariff in question. as well as the predictive information for the future tariff: different amounts and switching times. This makes it possible to circulate a maximum of useful information for the various devices of the home automation system. The invention also relates to a management device 1 of an electricity supply installation, for the implementation of the method described above. This device is preferably provided with a processing unit comprising all the instructions necessary for the implementation of a program according to this method. According to the invention, the management device 1 comprises a signal receiving means 2, for receiving, with or without a wire, a tariff information signal coming from the central counter 3 of the electrical installation, a memory 4, for storing the evolution of the tariff over time, a processing unit 5, to predict, on the basis of the previous evolution of the stored tariff, the future evolution of the tariff The reception means 2 thus allows the management device 1 to communicate directly with the counter 3 to receive the current tariff information 101, according to the transmission mode used by the counter 3. Generally, the exchange of information is by a wired communication, the reception means 2 is therefore close to the counter 3. The memory 4 allows the management device 1 to record the observed evolution of the electricity tariff, on the basis of the information sent by the counter 3. The treatment unit 5 preferably takes the form of a microprocessor and exploits, in accordance with a logic of calculation, the contents of the memory 4 to predict the future evolution of the tariff The processing unit 5 also preferentially controls the memorization of the evolution of the tariff, especially if it is necessary to calculate average values beforehand or to detect a significant deviation between the current tariff and the memorized values. The management device 1 also includes all the instructions necessary for the execution of a program implementing the method as described above, these instructions being able to be saved in the memory 4, or even in the processing unit 5. herself. According to an additional possible feature, the management device 1 further comprises a display means 6 for signaling the rate in effect, the next different rate, and a future time reference for the switching between the tariff in question. force and the next tariff, especially a set of diodes or a screen. Display implementations have already been described above and can be based on diodes, sliders, screens, etc.

In particular embodiments, the management device 1 comprises, on the one hand, a central module 7, and, on the other hand, a processing module 8, which are distinct from one another. These modules are preferably physically different, each with its housing, and can thus be placed in different places, in particular one near the counter 3, namely the central module 7, and the other in the premises of the installation, namely the processing module 8. The central module 7 communicates directly with the central counter 3, wired or wireless, and comprises, on the one hand, the signal receiving means 2, for receiving the tariff from the counter 3, and on the other hand, a bus interface for sending signals over an information bus 9 so as to communicate with the processing module 8 by means of said bus. The central module 7 is thus provided with an interface for the information bus 9 to at least send information on the bus 9. This central module 7 thus serves mainly to collect from the counter 3 the information current tariff, and to recirculate on the information bus 9. - Preferably, the processing module 8 includes a bus interface for communicating using the information bus 9 at least with the central module 7, includes the processing unit 5 and the memory 4, the display means 6 being in particular also mounted in the processing module 8 The central module 7 therefore forms an entity for receiving the current tariff signal of the from the counter 3, and circulate on a home automation information bus 9. The processing module 8 therefore forms an entity connected to the home-based information bus 9, which receives the current rate information from the bus 9 and sends on the bus 9 current rate information and / or at least one future rate information spotted in time. Of course, the invention is not limited to the embodiment described and shown in the accompanying drawings. Modifications are possible, in particular from the point of view of the constitution of the various elements or by substitution of technical equivalents, by different combination of all or part of the characteristics described above, without thereby departing from the field of protection of the invention. .

Claims (7)

REVENDICATIONS1. A method of managing an electricity supply facility in premises, said installation forming an electrical grid supplied with electricity from a single point of entry where is placed a central counter (3) provided with a wireless transmitter and / or a terminal block for connecting a wired conductor, said counter recording the power consumption of the entire installation and periodically sending a signal corresponding to the tariff in force, characterized in that it comprises steps consisting essentially of: - to observe the evolution over time of the electricity tariff - to foresee the future evolution of the tariff on the basis of the observed future evolution, that is to say of the stages consisting essentially, from a system of management (1) comprising a signal receiving means (2), a memory (4), a processing unit (5) and a display means (6), and an information bus (9) : - to receive (101), thanks to the receiving yen (2), with or without wire, the current tariff directly from the meter (3), then - to transmit (102) the current tariff on the home automation bus (9), the observation of the tariff being done on the basis of the information circulating on said bus, as well as an additional step consisting essentially of transmitting (103), on the bus (9), information representing the current fare, and / or the future fare, and / or a temporal information of permutation from one to the other, - to memorize, in the memory (4), the observed evolution of the tariff, on the basis of the information sent by the counter (3), the forecasting the future evolution by consulting the memorized evolution of the tariff, - to provide, by means of the processing unit (5), on the basis of the previous evolution of the memorized tariff the future evolution of the tariff . - to indicate, by said display means (6), the tariff in force, 30 the next different tariff, and a future time reference for the changeover between the current tariff and the next tariff. 2. Management method according to claim 1, characterized in that the stored evolution is based on a frame repeated cyclically. 3. Management method according to any one of claims 1 to 2, characterized in that the storage step essentially consists in memorizing, on the one hand, the instants of tariff permutation, and, on the other hand, the associated rates. 4. Management method according to any one of claims 1 to 3, characterized in that the evolution of the stored rate 40 is updated taking into account the evolution of the tariff observed. 5. Management method according to any one of claims 1 to 4, characterized in that it comprises a step of erasing the stored evolution of the tariff, if, compared to the observed evolution, a difference beyond a threshold is detected. 45 6. Device for managing (1) an electricity supply installation in premises, said installation forming an electric network supplied with electricity from a single point of entry where is placed a central counter (3) provided with a wireless transmitter and / or terminal block for connecting a wired conductor, said counter recording the 50 electrical consumption of the entire installation and periodically sending a signal corresponding to the tariff in force, for the implementation of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 5, characterized in that it comprises: - signal receiving means (2) for receiving, with or without a wireless signal, a tariff information signal from the central counter (3). ) of the electrical installation, - a memory (4), to memorize the evolution of the tariff over time, - a processing unit (5), to predict, on the basis of 60 the previous evolution of the memorized tariff, the future evolution of the rif, - a display means (6), to signal the current rate, the next different rate, and a future time reference for the changeover between the current rate and the next rate, in particular a set of diodes or a screen, 65 said management device (1) including in particular all the instructions necessary for the execution of a program implementing the method according to any one of claims 1 to 5. 7. Management device (1) according to claim 6, characterized in that it comprises, on the one hand, a central module (7), and, on the other hand, a 70 treatment module (8), separate from each other, in that the central module (7) communicates directly with the central counter (3), with or without a wire, and comprises, on the one hand, the receiving means (2) signal, for receiving the tariff from the counter (3), and, on the other hand, a bus interface for sending signals on an information bus (9) so as to communicate with the processing module (8). ) by means of said bus, and in that the processing module (8) comprises a bus interface for communicating by means of the information bus (9) at least with the central module (7), comprises the processing (5) and the memory (4), the display means (6) being also mounted in the processing module (8).